McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report | Third Quarter 2016 by McGuire Real Estate

THIRD QUARTER 2016

Table of Contents Letter from the President

Page 4

Regional Market Trends

Page 5

The Luxury Market

Page 8

San Francisco County

Page 12

San Mateo County

Page 16

Marin County

Page 18

Napa County

Page 20

Sonoma County

Page 22

Alameda County

Page 24

Contra Costa County

Page 26

Counties Represented

Napa Sonoma Marin Contra Costa San Francisco

Alameda

San Mateo

* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 3 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Letter from the President

Charles Moore President and CEO

Stability and Balance Continue to Reshape Bay Area Market in Q3 2016 Predictability has not been a word commonly associated with the Bay Area real estate market in quite some time. For investors, buyers and sellers alike, that reality is beginning to change. After a second quarter that began to show slowing appreciation rates, Q3 2016 further cemented this trend as not a single Bay Area county witnessed either a year-over-year price gain of 10 percent or a sales volume loss of 10 percent. In other words, both home sale prices and overall home sales are starting to show little upward or downward movement—exactly the kind of health that could swing the pendulum of this heavily seller-friendly market back in the direction of buyer accessibility. That’s not too say that inventory doesn’t remain tight—sales volume dropped a slight 3 percent from Q3 2015—but buyers are being more cautious about entering into bidding wars, and more patient about where and when they submit offers. This behavior was clearly reflected in the quarter’s average days on market (DOM) rising in each of the seven counties we represent, including San Francisco’s average DOM being 32 percent higher than the previous year. All four luxury regions, as defined by an area’s top ten percent of sales, also saw DOM jump by at least 13 percent. As a recent article in The Mercury News pointed out, “Sales of single-family homes in August crept up ever so slightly from the year before as many buyers took a wait-and-see attitude, challenging sellers to negotiate—something unheard of in the overheated market of 2015.” However, none of this should really alarm sellers. While overall price gains were closer to the 3.4 percent level that the California Association of REALTORS® predicted in its 2016 market forecast, the fact remains that the nation’s most flourishing seller’s market is still gaining. After all, six of the seven counties saw year-over-year price growth, including Sonoma County’s $703,808 average sale setting

“Both home sale prices and overall home sales are starting to show little upward or downward movement— exactly the kind of health that could swing the pendulum of this heavily seller-friendly market back in the direction of buyer accessibility.”

a new high-water mark. Still, all these gains are simply not at the double-digit appreciation rates that made the buyer-seller dynamic so lopsided for the past five years. The trend of more affordably priced areas like Napa, Sonoma, Contra Costa and Alameda Counties seeing both price appreciation and steady sales also continued. This is due to a greater inventory surplus than in the luxury counties, as well as the massive price tags in areas like the Mid-Peninsula, which posted eight eight-figure sales this quarter alone. Strong activity and demand in the smaller markets also led to Napa County posting its highest sales volume gain since Q3 2013. The expanding San Francisco condominium sector also trumped the pricier home sector, with an 11 percent year-over-year sales volume gain leading to more condominium sales in the city than home sales. As we look ahead price gains should remain modest for the remainder of 2016. While inventory remains scarce, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more sellers come out of the woodwork as they begin to notice that home values may have finally hit a ceiling. Buyer participation also looks promising given the leveled playing field exhibited over the past two quarters.

Download the complete Quarterly Report at: mcguire.com/quarterly_report * Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 4 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Regional Market Trends Consistency, not flashiness, was the name of the game in the Q3 2016 Bay Area real estate market. After more than four years of frenzied behavior, a sense of stability seems to finally be setting in, as Q3 saw a widespread trend of near-nominal year-over-year average home sale price gains and similarly even-keeled sales volume figures. While this behavior is less headline-grabbing than what we’ve witnessed in quarters past, it’s also a potential recipe for some of the most predictable market movements in recent history—a phenomenon that could benefit both buyers and sellers. The East Bay is arguably the best barometer for this quarter’s overall pattern behavior. While both Contra Costa and Alameda Counties saw average sales prices near the record highs set in the past year, these numbers were also not growing at the breakneck pace that has defined the market since 2011. Alameda County’s average home sales price was up just 5 percent year-over-year, and Contra Costa County’s was up just 2 percent. The reason stability is the key word here—and not concern—is because sales volume was also almost exactly in line with the East Bay totals from a year prior. This activity continued, more or less, into San Francisco, Marin County and the Mid-Peninsula—the three most affluent counties in the Bay Area. San Francisco’s $1.608 million average sale was no slouch, but it was up just 4 percent year-over-year. Marin County’s average sale price actually dropped 5 percent from Q3 2015, mainly due to the massive push of high-end inventory that occurred over the past few years, and a resultant lack of high-priced homes on the market. Meanwhile, the Mid-Peninsula saw its average sale up 2 percent year-over-year. Compare that last figure with a near 15 percent surge in 2015 and the aforementioned market balance begins to take shape. While sales volume did drop a tad more in higher-end areas like Marin County, the rest of the North Bay balanced this out. Sonoma County saw no sales volume change from a year prior, and Napa County even posted its highest sales volume figure of the last three years, with 369 total sales. Both counties also saw average sales prices gain just slightly on the previous year. One final note to illustrate this stability can be reflected in the average days on market (DOM) before a sale as witnessed in Q3 2016. Nearly all counties saw a noticeable increase between the time a home was put on the market and the time of its closing. While some of this is due to the ongoing inventory shortage, it can also be viewed as a sign of buyers exercising more control over the market. Given the frenetic pace of the market over the past several years, one can only interpret such trends as signals of increased balance and health.

All REGIONS

$2,000

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Quantity

Q3 2016

$966,536

$510

9640

change

-8%

16%

-5%

-2%

Q2 2016

$1,046,592

$537

9850

Q3 2016

$966,536

$510

9640

change

-3%

Q3 2015

$947,365

$498

9947

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 0 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

East Bay

North Bay

Mid-Peninsula

San Francisco

Page 5 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Regional Market Share This quarterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s steady stream of sales and modest price gains amounted to $9.317 billion across the seven Bay Area counties we represent. This included the average home selling for $966,536â&#x20AC;&#x201D;a 2 percent gain year-over-year. The East Bay led the way, accounting for 60 percent of all sales and 49 percent of total cash volume. The North Bay provided 22 percent of all sales and 21 percent of cash volume. The Mid-Peninsula tallied 12 percent of all sales and 21 percent of cash volume, and San Francisco added 6 percent of all sales and 9 percent of cash volume. In total, 9,640 properties sold in Q3 2016.

6+12+2260A 9+21+49A Market Share by Unit

Market Share by Volume

San Francisco 6%

San Francisco 9%

Mid-Peninsula 12%

Mid-Peninsula 21%

North Bay 22%

North Bay 21%

East Bay 60%

East Bay 49%

Page 6 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Quantity Sold by Price Single-Family Homes North Bay: 2165 Marin, Napa, Sonoma

East Bay: 5769 Contra Costa, Alameda

San Francisco: 540

> $5,000,000 < $4,000,000

Mid-Peninsula: 1166

< $3,000,000 < $2,000,000 < $1,000,000 > $1,000,000

Page 7 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

The Luxury Market The luxury market—defined by the top 10 percent of an area’s sales—acted in general accordance with the larger Bay Area market, exemplifying both minor dips in sales volume and minor increases in average sales price. However, compared to the more affordably-priced Bay Area housing sector, the luxury market did experience a bit more volatility from region to region. Market activity in the North Bay was the most severe outlier from the stability that largely defined Q3 2016. The region’s luxury sales took a noticeable average home sales price hit, with the $2.62 million average sale down 12 percent year-over-year. Yet, it’s worth noting that such behavior isn’t exactly a cause for alarm. Marin, Sonoma and Napa Counties had all experienced staggering average sales price highs in the first two quarters of 2016, with Marin County’s luxury market gaining 10 percent year-over-year in Q2 2016. The pricing drop-off this quarter can mainly be attributed to the large number of high-priced homes that left the market in early 2016, resulting in very little of the same caliber inventory for the region in Q3. San Francisco and the Mid-Peninsula on the other hand continued to see average sales prices grow. The average luxury sale in San Francisco of $4.43 million was a nine percent improvement year-over-year, and San Mateo County’s $4.83 million average sale was a 3 percent gain. It should be noted that sales volume was down 9 percent year-over-year in both counties. Again, this was due to the same luxury inventory shortage experienced in the North Bay. The Mid-Peninsula’s strong pricing gains included eight of the top 10 Bay Area sales—all of $10 million or more. This included two $22 million closings and one $30 million sale. Then there was the East Bay, which held course with the market’s broader theme of stability. The $1.764 million sale here was nearly identical to the previous year’s mark, as were the 576 total home sales. One final note that should add to buyer confidence is that average DOM was up by at least 13 percent in each luxury region.

Page 8 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

SAN FRANCISCO Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$4,426,912

$1,267

change

-10%

-13%

11%

-2%

Q2 2016

$4,912,759

$1,295

Q3 2016

$4,426,912

$1,267

change

-9%

14%

Q3 2015

$4,059,034

$1,207

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$4,830,344

117

$1,157

change

-9%

-7%

29%

-5%

Q2 2016

$5,283,936

126

$1,223

Q3 2016

$4,830,344

117

$1,157

change

-9%

26%

Q3 2015

$4,670,810

128

$1,133

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$2,620,227

215

$845

change

-16%

-5%

66%

-10%

Q2 2016

$3,120,985

227

$938

Q3 2016

$2,620,227

215

$845

change

-12%

-2%

13%

-6%

Q3 2015

$2,964,328

220

$900

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$1,764,863

576

$554

change

-8%

-1%

19%

-3%

Q2 2016

$1,911,870

580

$572

Q3 2016

$1,764,863

576

$554

change

-2%

15%

Q3 2015

$1,753,898

590

$536

MID-PENINSULA

NORTH BAY

EAST BAY

Page 9 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Bay Area Luxury Market Share Showing a bevy of eight-figure sales, the MidPeninsula led all regions with 37 percent of all sales and 40 percent of cash volume. Despite a down quarter, the North Bay still managed both 22 percent of sales and cash volume. The East Bay added 25 percent of all sales and 21 percent of cash volume. While San Francisco posted 16 percent of all sales and 17 percent of cash volume. The sum of these transactions was 967 luxury sales totaling $2.572 billion.

17+40+2221A 16+37+2225A Market Share by Unit

Market Share by Volume

San Francisco 17%

San Francisco 16%

Mid-Peninsula 40%

Mid-Peninsula 37%

North Bay 22%

East Bay 21%

East Bay 25%

Page 10 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Sales Trends Luxury Homes

Price Range As a Percent of Sales $0-$500K

$500K-$1M

$1M-$2M

Price Per Square Foot

$2M-$3M

$3M-$5M

> $1,000/sqft >= $1,000/sqft >= $900/sqft

$5M+

>= $700/sqft >= $500/sqft

San Francisco Single-Family Homes

Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2015

< $500/sqft

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=10+290+510120 + 60 + 15+ =230 +0 540 + 130 + 70 + 30+ =10310 + +490120 + +6020+ 1%

29%

23%

51%

31%

12%

54%

13%

49%

12%

1.5%

Mid-Peninsula 0%

Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2015

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=315 +0 500 + 110 + 50 + 20+ =310 +0 475 + 110 + 60 + 34+ =10370 + 430 + 110 + 55 + 25+

32%

31%

50%

11%

47%

37%

11%

43%

11%

3.4%

3.1%

North Bay 0%

Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2015

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=225+525180 + 37+18+5+ =200+510200 + 50 + 20+10+ =300475 + 170 + 30+10+10+

23%

20%

53%

51%

30%

48%

18%

20%

2% .5%

2% .9%

17% 3%

1% 1%

East Bay 0%

Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2015

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=260+510+21020+3+1 =250490 + 240 + 22+4+1 =300485 + 170 + 30+10+10+ 26%

51%

25%

49%

30%

48%

21%

2% 0.33% 0.03%

24%

2.24% 0.43% 0.03%

17% 3%

1% 0.86%

Page 11 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

San Francisco County Single-Family Homes With an average home sale of $1.608 million, San Francisco experienced a modest 4 percent year-overyear gain. This figure—being very much in line with early 2016 predictions—restored some balance to a market wherein double-digit, year-over-year price gains had been the norm for several years. The 540 homes sold this quarter wasn’t a strong number, but it also wasn’t much of an aberration from just 5 percent more selling in Q3 2015. The average 34 DOM presented a noticeable 32 percent increase year-over-year. Again this can be seen as a sign of health. Potential buyers are practicing more patience as home prices begin to stabilize, creating for a more balanced market.

SAN FRANCISCO - SFH Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$1,607,697

$854

change

-9%

22%

-2%

Q2 2016

$1,761,835

$873

Q3 2016

$1,607,697

$854

change

32%

Q3 2015

$1,544,370

$834

Page 12 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

5965+ 51+ 69+ 62+ 68+ 49+ 73+ 67+ 67+ 45+ 59+ 60+ 65+ 40+ 61+ 57+ 62+ 35+ 61+ 54+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

$1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

48+4948+5752+6458+6865+6870+7770+7785+9075+8284+8880 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted a Bay Area best 13 percent on top of initial listing. Sellers who tested the market were still able to recover 92 percent of their asking price.

Sales Q3 2016 Q3 2015

without price change

with price change

13%

-8%

20%

-5%

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10

Nine San Francisco neighborhoods saw price gains of at least 10 percent year-over-year. A few standout examples were Cow Hollow and Hayes Valley, where gains of 32 percent and 22 percent were had, respectively. Presidio Heights saw the city’s top sale in Q3 at $15.75 million.

City

Q3 2016

Q3 2015

change

Nob Hill

$9,750,000

N/A

Presidio Heights

$8,616,667

$7,500,000

15%

Pacific Heights

$8,067,800

$7,583,333

Cow Hollow

$4,801,018

$3,633,750

32%

Hayes Valley

$3,800,000

$3,125,000

22%

Haight Ashbury

$3,525,000

N/A

Marina District

$3,456,568

$6,461,667

-47%

< $700/sqft

Buena Vista Park

$3,247,500

$2,450,000

33%

< $500/sqft

Lake Street

$3,100,000

$2,513,125

23%

Sea Cliff

$2,851,200

$2,750,000

San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft

Page 13 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

San Francisco County Condominiums The condominium sector saw its strongest Q3 in market history, with both average sales prices and sales volume on the rise. The $1.232 million average sale here wasn’t exactly dramatic, up 3 percent from Q3 2015. That figure supplanted by 569 units selling this quarter—up 11 percent year-over-year—created for an exceptionally well-balanced marketplace in contrast to the last few years. With so many condominium projects finally nearing finalization after several years of construction, increased inventory coupled with stabilized pricing is a welcome sign for prospective buyers. It should be noted that the year-over-year increase of DOM at 47 percent, was representative more of severe outliers inflating statistics than units actually seeing sales pace slow down drastically.

SAN FRANCISCO - CONDOMINIUMS Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$1,232,030

$1,043

change

-3%

18%

-1%

Q2 2016

$1,264,763

$1,053

Q3 2016

$1,232,030

$1,043

change

47%

Q3 2015

$1,198,373

$1,013

Page 14 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

48+ 45+ 46+ 69+ 66+ 58+ 50+ 75+ 69+ 66+ 53+ 71+ 61+ 59+ 46+ 65+ 51+ 59+ 43+ 59+ 56+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

40+3539+3841+ 46+ 50+4951+525854+ 55+6162+6061+6263+62 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

$1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Sales Price Change

Units that required no sales price change took in 106 percent of initial asking price, while those who tested the market recovered 92 percent of their initial offer. The lack of a major gap between these numbers is indicative of a stabilizing market. Sales Q3 2016 Q3 2015

without price change

with price change

-8%

11%

-5%

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10

Neighborhoods on the north side of San Francisco performed particularly well, with Telegraph Hill, Pacific Heights and Cow Hollow all showing year-over-year gains of more than 40 percent. The Inner Richmond, Presidio Heights and Laurel Heights showed impressive gains as well.

City

Q3 2016

Q3 2015

change

Laurel Heights

$3,600,000

$1,440,375

150%

Presidio Heights

$2,965,000

$2,575,000

15%

Telegraph Hill

$2,211,667

$1,025,000

116%

Pacific Heights

$2,152,458

$1,341,422

60%

Russian Hill

$1,793,533

$1,813,263

-1%

Cow Hollow

$1,605,000

$1,083,778

48%

Financial District

$1,592,800

$1,702,500

-6%

< $700/sqft

Mission Dolores

$1,511,241

$2,042,681

-26%

< $500/sqft

Twin Peaks

$1,492,000

$1,082,794

38%

Marina District

$1,491,116

$1,457,667

San Francisco Condominium Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft

Page 15 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

San Mateo County Single-Family Homes The average Mid-Peninsula home sold for $1.643 million in Q3 2016. While this figure marked the thirdhighest average sales price by quarter in market history, it was only a modest gain of 2 percent from a year prior. Along with this stabilizing trend, the 1,166 homes sold this quarter was just a 6 percent decrease from Q3 2015. Although these figures won’t create for many headlines, it does showcase the prominent Q3 trend of a healthier and more buyer-friendly market than we’ve seen over the past few years here in the Bay Area. This accessibility was also evidenced in the average 26 DOM being up 22 percent from the previous Q3 2015—a sign that buyers are exercising more patience.

SAN MATEO COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$1,643,110

$812

change

-5%

33%

-3%

Q2 2016

$1,736,023

$841

Q3 2016

$1,643,110

$812

change

22%

Q3 2015

$1,609,651

$784

Page 16 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

54+ 36+ 40+ 64+ 53+ 55+ 41+ 65+ 62+ 55+ 41+ 66+ 66+ 55+ 36+ 70+ 69+ 50+ 38+ 63+ 56+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

$1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

46+47 4553+ 5652+ 5864+ 6562+ 7274+ 7170+ 7782+ 8078+ 7687+ 82 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change took in 104 percent of initial asking price. The counterpoint to this rather ordinary figure was a 13 percent loss for those who tested the market. This last figure should only further encourage home buyers in this exclusive market. Sales Q3 2016 Q3 2015

without price change

with price change

-13%

-8%

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Atherton continued to show extraordinary gains, as has been the case over the past several years, with its $9.004 million average home sale up 45 percent year-over-year. This included five sales of $13 million-plus, including a Bay Area high $30.75 million closing.

City

Q3 2016

Q3 2015

change

Atherton

$9,004,429

$6,211,783

45%

Hillsborough

$4,876,031

$4,313,975

13%

Woodside

$3,936,992

$3,514,996

12%

Portola Valley

$2,837,767

$3,135,000

-9%

> $1000/sqft

Menlo Park

$2,383,548

$2,468,052

-3%

< $1000/sqft

Burlingame

$2,115,557

$2,039,586

San Carlos

$1,766,804

$1,740,795

Foster City

$1,629,722

$1,618,633

Redwood Shores

$1,616,136

$1,635,252

-1%

Millbrae

$1,610,459

$1,525,647

San Mateo County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot

< $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 17 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Marin County Single-Family Homes After posting $1.5 million-plus average sales prices in four of the past five quarters, it was unsurprising to see Marin County come back to earth a bit. The $1.432 million average home sale price was down 5 percent year-over-year, along with the 509 homes sold this quarter dropping 9 percent from Q3 2015. The average 49 DOM remained steady, proving in part that Q3â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s down numbers were simply a byproduct of inventory being swallowed up in the feeding frenzy of the last year, rather than any change of valuation or buyer interest in the area.

MARIN COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$1,431,607

$658

change

-10%

33%

-3%

Q2 2016

$1,597,033

$677

Q3 2016

$1,431,607

$658

change

-5%

-2%

Q3 2015

$1,501,876

$623

Page 18 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

5244+ 43+ 67+ 66+ 59+ 42+ 77+ 70+ 55+ 42+ 76+ 61+ 52+ 37+ 70+ 62+ 51+ 31+ 67+ 50+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

50+4847+5350+5253+6162+6070+6968+6971+75 +7670+8071 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

$1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change tended to fetch not much more than asking price, while sellers who tested the market recovered 89 percent of their initial offering. As in the other luxury-priced markets, this behavior could signal some very positive signs for buyers, assuming inventory levels remain relatively stable. Sales Q3 2016 Q3 2015

without price change

with price change

-11%

-12%

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Larkspur saw the most success of the Marin County neighborhoods with sizeable data pools. The $2.22 million average home sale here was a 41 percent increase year-overyear. It should also be noted that Marin County’s middling average home sales price figures this quarter were in part due to a major dearth of inventory in high-end areas like Belvedere.

City

Q3 2016

Q3 2015

change

Ross

$3,876,333

$2,392,714

62%

Belvedere

$3,123,273

$8,511,538

-63%

Kentfield

$2,531,156

$3,129,831

-19%

Tiburon

$2,407,172

$2,975,569

-19%

Larkspur

$2,219,515

$1,568,909

41%

< $1000/sqft

Bolinas

$2,050,000

$795,000

158%

< $900/sqft

Sausalito

$1,819,917

$2,074,571

-12%

Mill Valley

$1,758,025

$1,670,477

Nicasio

$1,575,000

$1,229,000

28%

Stinson Beach

$1,526,110

$4,012,500

-62%

Marin County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 19 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Napa County Single-Family Homes Napa County, which in the North Bay occupies a larger amount of homes priced below $1 million, performed particularly well this quarter. The $887,718 average sales price here was up 6 percent year-over-year, marking Napa County’s fifth-consecutive quarter within the $800,000 range. This activity occurred as 369 homes sold—a figure not only up 5 percent year-over-year but one representative of the strongest quarterly sales volume for the county since Q3 2013. That this activity took place while the county’s average 77 DOM moved 13 percent slower than a year prior should only solidify Napa County as one of the healthiest Bay Area markets at the moment.

NAPA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$887,718

$440

change

16%

Q2 2016

$888,001

$441

Q3 2016

$887,718

$440

change

13%

Q3 2015

$833,580

$409

Page 20 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

2936+ 3432+ 3142+ 3836+ 2636+ 3830+ 2134+ 2725+ 3435+ 2722+ 3336+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

500 400 300 200 100 0

Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400

51+43 49+ 50+ 53+ 65+ 52+ 66+ 67+ 68+ 72+ 79+ 83+ 73+ 75+ 78+ 83+ 93+ 96+ 88+ 88+ Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change rarely received multiple offers or offers above list price, while sellers who tested the market regained 90 percent of their initial listing. This activity could ignite massive buyer confidence if inventory remains stable in the coming months. Sales

without price change

with price change

Q3 2016

-10%

Q3 2015

-9%

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

St. Helena saw some of the strongest upward pricing gains of the cities with sizable data pools in Napa County. St. Helena’s $1.982 million average sale was up 56 percent year-over-year. The dramatic 165 percent gain in Yountville was skewed by a major sale of $10.2 million.

City

Q3 2016

Q3 2015

change

Rutherford

$3,938,000

N/A

Yountville

$2,366,867

$894,294

165%

St. Helena

$1,982,248

$1,268,970

56%

Calistoga

$1,381,708

$1,341,214

Napa

$779,523

$826,240

-6%

< $1000/sqft

Angwin

$573,000

N/A

< $900/sqft

American Canyon

$489,045

$484,840

Pope Valley

$231,625

$204,500

13%

Napa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 21 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Sonoma County Single-Family Homes Sonoma County was the only one of seven Bay Area counties that we cover to post an all-time record average sales price this quarter. The $703,808 average sale here was up 6 percent year-over-year, and came in the wake of a very strong Q2 2016. As importantly, sales volume remained stable even as price gains appreciated. An example of this was the 1,287 total sales this quarter being almost identical to a year prior, while also improving 6 percent from the previous quarter. The average 61 DOM was also a very standard number for the county. The continuing strength here is due largely to buyer interest in areas that can offer many of the same perks found in luxury markets like Marin County and the Mid-Peninsula, but at roughly half the price tag and with a higher volume of inventory to choose from.

SONOMA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$703,838

$395

change

-40%

Q2 2016

$703,420

$660

Q3 2016

$703,838

$395

change

Q3 2015

$664,637

$371

Page 22 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

5863+ 61+ 58+ 74+ 71+ 63+ 48+ 70+ 69+ 55+ 44+ 62+ 68+ 56+ 38+ 68+ 63+ 42+ 61+ 61+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

41+42 3840+ 4544+ 4746+ 5455+ 59+ 59+ 6058+ 6662+ 6670+ Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350

Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Sales Price Change

In an increasingly balanced market for sellers and buyers, homes that required no price change netted 1 percent on top of initial asking price, while those who tested the market still maintained a 92 percent take of their initial offer. without price change

with price change

Q3 2016

Sales

-8%

Q3 2015

-8%

Sonoma County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Geyserville, Glen Ellen and Kenwood all posted strong gains of 77 percent, 57 percent and 49 percent, respectively. However, these numbers did come from rather small-sized data pools. The prevailing trend among most Sonoma County cities was simply one of strong and stable price gains, with few granular outliers to skew the 6 percent gain we saw countywide.

City

Q3 2016

Q3 2015

change

Calistoga

$2,101,667

N/A

Geyserville

$1,603,750

$903,800

77%

Kenwood

$1,602,688

$1,073,000

49%

Glen Ellen

$1,244,000

$792,920

57%

Sonoma

$1,106,399

$1,159,504

-5%

< $1000/sqft

Healdsburg

$966,233

$1,008,072

-4%

< $900/sqft

Sebastopol

$906,522

$802,348

13%

< $700/sqft

Bodega Bay

$888,429

$1,032,362

-14%

Penngrove

$878,818

$846,583

< $500/sqft

Page 23 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Alameda County Single-Family Homes At $912,754, Alameda County’s average home sale hit a new record high. This figure was up 6 percent from the previous record achieved in Q2 2015 and continues in the trend of more affordably priced counties seeing steady valuation. This activity occurred with the average home selling in a brisk 18 DOM—the fastest turnaround time among all seven counties we serve. While the 2,763 homes sold was down 5 percent yearover-year, this number was in stark contrast to a first quarter in which inventory seemed all but non-existent. The more affluent counties might not see much price appreciation in 2016, but Alameda County—and most of the East Bay for that matter—continues to impress with its alluring affordability.

ALAMEDA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$863,702

$495

change

-5%

18%

-3%

Q2 2016

$912,792

$509

Q3 2016

$863,702

$495

change

Q3 2015

$822,239

$466

Page 24 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

7067+ 59+ 81+ 74+ 65+ 46+ 65+ 72+ 63+ 45+ 65+ 72+ 60+ 41+ 73+ 72+ 64+ 50+ 73+ 76+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

48+454351+ 54+ 56+68 +66 79+ 75+7476+8682+8081+9186 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

$900 $850 $800 $750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 $450

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change gained 9 percent on top of initial asking price, while sellers who tested the market recovered a strong 93 percent of asking price. This second figure tied with Contra Costa as the most seller-friendly amongst all seven Bay Area counties. Sales Q3 2016 Q3 2015

without price change

with price change

-6%

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

The even-keeled strength of Alameda County could be seen in just how well-balanced average price gains were this quarter. Every city from Fremont to Berkeley performed nearly right in line with the average 6 percent gain seen for the county as a whole.

City

Q3 2016

Q3 2015

change

Piedmont

$2,327,746

$2,013,322

16%

Berkeley

$1,225,838

$1,202,173

Pleasanton

$1,152,813

$1,171,161

-2%

Albany

$1,077,514

$876,244

23%

Dublin

$1,028,602

$945,192

Fremont

$1,014,241

$1,022,492

-1%

Alameda

$995,438

$896,240

11%

Livermore

$820,387

$751,052

< $700/sqft

Union City

$783,940

$773,273

< $500/sqft

Oakland

$781,927

$720,667

Alameda County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft

Page 25 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

Contra Costa County Single-Family Homes With an average home sale of $724,713, Contra Costa County remained on pace with the area’s pricing for the past year and a half. While this figure was the thirdhighest average sales price in the county’s history, it was also just a 2 percent increase year-over-year. The takeaway here is that Contra Costa County home prices are finally beginning to stabilize along with the rest of the market. With sales volume also remaining right on par with the previous year—2,960 homes sold this quarter—and the average 24 DOM showing no change, both buyers and sellers should have a much better idea of what to expect here as we move toward 2017.

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q3 2016

$724,713

$356

change

-6%

10%

-1%

Q2 2016

$767,617

$361

Q3 2016

$724,713

$356

change

-3%

Q3 2015

$710,004

$341

Page 26 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

3228+ 2634+ 3025+ 2027+ 2923+ 1827+ 2823+ 1830+ 25+ 2132+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300

41+ 37+ 4647+ 49+ 6263+ 6159+ 6963+ 74+ 7166+ 6876+ 72 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16

Sales Price Change

A very balanced buyer-seller market was represented in the 3 percent gain on homes that required no price change, versus the 93 percent take on homes when sellers tested the market.

Sales

without price change

with price change

Q3 2016

-7%

Q3 2015

-7%

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

In supporting the 2 percent year-over-year gain for the county, pricing was more or less even across the board this quarter. The largest standout figures were Pleasanton, Alamo, and Lafayette, with gains of 11 percent, 10 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

City

Q3 2016

Q3 2015

change

Diablo

$2,270,000

$3,458,333

-34%

Alamo

$1,773,302

$1,619,437

10%

Lafayette

$1,570,614

$1,454,103

Orinda

$1,558,244

$1,523,417

Danville

$1,370,578

$1,314,516

Moraga

$1,210,523

$1,288,019

-6%

< $1000/sqft

Kensington

$1,131,125

$1,157,882

-2%

< $900/sqft

San Ramon

$1,094,181

$1,049,111

Walnut Creek

$1,047,799

$986,700

$779,608

$764,639

Contra Costa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

El Cerrito

Page 27 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 3rd Quarter 2016

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