McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report | Fourth Quarter 2015 by McGuire Real Estate

FOURTH QUARTER 2015 Q U A R T E R LY R E P O R T

* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 2 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Table of Contents Letter from the President

Page 4

Regional Market Trends

Page 5

The Luxury Market

Page 8

San Francisco County

Page 12

San Mateo County

Page 16

Marin County

Page 18

Napa County

Page 20

Sonoma County

Page 22

Alameda County

Page 24

Contra Costa County

Page 26

Counties Represented

Napa Sonoma Marin Contra Costa San Francisco

Alameda

San Mateo

Page 3 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Letter from the President A Lucrative 2015 Closes with Steady Numbers In a year that saw all seven Bay Area markets drastically redefine their average sales price ceilings due to both a flush local economy and limited inventory, 2015’s fourth quarter served as a fitting bookend. All counties experienced year-over-year average sales price gains, including two new county records. Sales volume was generally stable—a welcome sign for buyers and sellers alike in today’s often-unpredictable and frenzied marketplace. In looking at 2015 as a whole, a strong and persistent trend was the upward valuation of the more affordably priced counties. Contra Costa County posted over $7 billion in sales, up 14 percent year-over-year, while Alameda County recorded more than $8 billion and was up 13 percent year-over-year. Furthermore, the less-densely populated Napa County bested $1 billion for the first time in market history, increasing 15 percent year-over-year. Napa County’s gains were punctuated by a particularly strong fourth quarter in which the average home sales price rose to a new record of $928,126— a notable 26 percent year-over-year gain. This was not overwhelmingly surprising given the current state of prosperity in the tech and biotech spheres, with such professionals now venturing out of San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo Counties for the type of affordable yet affluent lifestyle found in areas like Napa County. Marin County saw its highest-ever average sales price of $1.516 million, making it one of three Bay Area counties—alongside San Francisco and San Mateo County—to post a $1.5 million-plus Q4 average. On a more granular level, it’s difficult to overlook the strength of the Mid-Peninsula’s Atherton market and its performance in the closing months of 2015. An Atherton home that sold for $35.3 million was one of five closings of more than $9.8 million this quarter, contributing to a $7.227 million average home sale, for a town that has become one of the nation’s most desirable locations for the wealthy and affluent. As we look forward to 2016, more of the same upward sales pricing and tight inventory are to be expected. Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President and Chief Economist of the California Association of REALTORS®, recently stated, “The foundation for California’s housing market remains strong, with moderating home prices, signs of credit easing, and the state continuing to lead the nation in economic and job growth.” Buyers looking for a window should be encouraged by such statements, as it’s difficult to believe we’ll continue at the pace which spelled double-digit cash volume percentage appreciation in areas like the East Bay and Napa County in 2015. However, unless there’s an influx of supply, 10 percent would not be a surprising rate of growth for sellers to expect in 2016.

Charles Moore President and CEO

view this report on our web site: mcguire.com/quarterly_report

“In looking at 2015 as a whole, a strong and persistent trend was the upward valuation of the more affordably priced counties.” * Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 4 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Regional Market Trends If a market could be described as dominant and relatively unremarkable in the same breath, then look no further than to the Bay Area in Q4 2015. The massive average home sale prices we’ve become accustomed to were prevalent here, although the recordsetting figures died down a bit. The in-demand inventory supply was limited, but sales volume saw no major aberrations from the past few years’ activity. While sellers priced high, they tended to recognize a ceiling that did not seem to exist in the year’s more exceptional months.

ALL REGIONS

One standout amongst all this normalcy was Marin County, where the $1.515 million average home sale was a new record high and up 11 percent year-over-year. In fact, all three of the seven-figure counties—including San Francisco and the Mid-Peninsula—saw average home sale prices rise between 9 and 12 percent year-overyear. A simple conclusion from this activity is that the tech boom is freeing up an excess of cash that is being directly invested back into the Bay Area’s most affluent communities, and specifically those in close proximity to major tech industry headquarters.

$2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 0

Another noteworthy case of financial growth was seen in Napa County, where the average home sale topped $900,000 for the first time in market history. This included an onslaught of luxury-priced sales, for example an $11 million closing along Soda Canyon Road in Napa, as well as widespread upward valuation even among what are typically some of the Bay Area’s more affordable real estate offerings. Needless to say, Napa County has firmly supplanted itself as one of the most in-demand enclaves for buyers looking for the perks of Bay Area living without the same high-price tags that are unavoidable in Marin, San Mateo and San Francisco Counties. In the East Bay, both Contra Costa and Alameda County saw steadily strong average home sales prices without any major dips or rises in valuation. The large majority of all Bay Area sales also took place between these two counties, which provided the typical relief for buyers who are priced out of smaller markets with bigger price tags.

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Quantity

Q4 2015

$934,900

$503

8572

change

-1%

18%

-14%

Q3 2015

$947,365

$498

9947

Q4 2015

$934,900

147

$535

8572

change

271%

14%

Q4 2014

$879,131

$469

8379

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

24+22302947455046+20265149+23304748+22284649+21274548+20275357+24315652+25305264+253358+26316468+323865+32386268+31387270+37417477+36407068+34406877+35417782+38467889+39457877+37457782 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

East Bay

North Bay

Mid-Peninsula

San Francisco

Page 5 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Market Share

7+12+2358A 13+20+2245A Market Share by Unit

With average home sales remaining near record levels, the Bay Area witnessed a strong $8.014 billion in total Q4 sales. The East Bay accounted for 58 percent of all sales and 46 percent of the marketâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s cash volume at $3.648 billion. The North Bay recorded 23 percent of all sales and 22 percent of cash share by volume. The MidPeninsula posted 12 percent of all sales and 20 percent of cash share by volume. San Francisco contributed 7 percent of all sales and 13 percent of cash volume.

Market Share by Volume

San Francisco 7%

San Francisco 13%

Mid-Peninsula 12%

Mid-Peninsula 20%

North Bay 23%

North Bay 22%

East Bay 58%

East Bay 46%

Page 6 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Quantity Sold by Price Single-Family Homes North Bay: 1,965 Marin, Napa, Sonoma

East Bay: 4,974 Contra Costa, Alameda

San Francisco: 620

> $5,000,000 < $4,000,000

Mid-Peninsula: 1,013

< $3,000,000 < $2,000,000 < $1,000,000 > $1,000,000

Page 7 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

The Luxury Market

The luxury market—defined by the top 10 percent of all homes sold—saw year-over-year gains in all four regions as the tech boom continues to usher in a surplus of high-end investments into the Bay Area’s residential market. The rise in average sales prices within this sector created for another strong output of more than $2.363 billion in total luxury sales, although sales volume wasn’t as pronounced as it has been in recent quarters. The Mid-Peninsula topped all markets with its $4.631 million average sale up 13 percent year-over-year. Highlighting this activity were Atherton, Hillsborough and Woodside, which combined posted the top 13 sales within the region. This included a $35.3 million closing in Atherton and three additional Atherton sales that surpassed the $11 million mark. The Mid-Peninsula accounted for 36 percent of the Bay Area’s top transactions this quarter. With major tech companies located in close proximity to these desirable locales, it’s unlikely that this upward trajectory will let up anytime soon.

Napa County’s strongest quarter on record, as well as Marin County seeing its now-usual share of high-priced closings. The average 79 days on market (DOM) was also a 19 percent more aggressive pace than last year. As with its non-luxury sector, the East Bay showed very standard and steady numbers. The $1.69 million average sale was right in line with recent market trends, as was the 511 luxury properties sold. The average 36 DOM rose slightly, most likely due to a few properties that had lingered on the market before finally closing rather than any sort of marked pace change. Lastly, San Francisco’s $4.63 million average sale—while only up 2 percent year-over-year—was a dramatic 14 percent gain from the previous quarter. Such fluctuation is common in what is constantly one of the most in-demand and unpredictable real estate markets in the country. Overall sales and average DOM remained relatively stable with recent trends.

The North Bay also showed strong gains, with its $2.9 million average sale up 12 percent year-over-year. This was aided in large part by

Page 8 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

SAN FRANCISCO MID-PENINSULA EAST BAY NORTH BAY

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$4,630,530

$1,249

change

14%

-13%

Q3 2015

$4,059,034

$1,207

Q4 2015

$4,630,530

$1,249

change

-10%

26%

10%

Q4 2014

$4,529,507

$1,132

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$4,631,811

103

$1,120

change

-1%

-20%

44%

-1%

Q3 2015

$4,670,810

128

$1,133

Q4 2015

$4,631,811

103

$1,120

change

13%

-7%

-9%

14%

Q4 2014

$4,081,716

111

$986

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$1,690,254

511

$542

change

-4%

-13%

38%

Q3 2015

$1,753,898

590

$536

Q4 2015

$1,690,254

511

$542

change

20%

Q4 2014

$1,633,500

479

$497

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$2,899,997

196

$919

change

-2%

-11%

Q3 2015

$2,964,328

220

$900

Q4 2015

$2,899,997

196

$919

change

12%

-19%

19%

Q4 2014

$2,593,621

189

$770

Page 9 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Bay Area Luxury Market Share The Mid-Peninsula continued to provide the lionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s share of luxury activity, recording 34 percent of all sales and 36 percent of cash volume at $856.793 million. The North Bay and San Francisco followed, both posting 22 percent of the marketâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sales and 23 percent of its cash share by volume. The East Bay also recorded 22 percent of all sales, and generated 18 percent of total cash share. This activity amounted to a strong $2.364 billion in total sales.

18+36+23A 22+34+22A Sales Volume

Quantity Sold

San Francisco 23%

San Francisco 22%

Mid-Peninsula 36%

Mid-Peninsula 34%

North Bay 23%

North Bay 22%

East Bay 18%

East Bay 22%

Page 10 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Sales Trends Luxury Homes

Price Range As a Percent of Sales $0-$500K

$500K-$1M

$1M-$2M

Price Per Square Foot

$2M-$3M

$3M-$5M

> $1,000/sqft >= $1,000/sqft >= $900/sqft

$5M+

>= $700/sqft >= $500/sqft

San Francisco Single-Family Homes

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2014

< $500/sqft

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=290+520110 + +5030+ =15310 + 495 + 120 + 50 + 20+ =40+510320 + 60 + 50 + 21+ 1%

29%

52%

11%

31%

49%

12%

1.8%

51%

32%

Mid-Peninsula 0%

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2014

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=10410 + 400 + 100 + +5020+ =10355 + 450 + 100 + 60 + 20+ =60470 + 343 + 73 + 43 + 13+ 1%

41%

40%

10%

37%

43%

11%

3.1%

46%

37%

East Bay 0%

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2014

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=330490 + +16010+0+ =305485 + 190 + 17+3+0 =400450 + 140 + 14+2+1 33%

49%

16%

31%

49%

19%

1.65% .34%

40%

45%

14%

1% 0% 0%

North Bay 0%

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2014

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=300460 + +16050 + 20+10+ =300+480170 + 30++108+ =370450 + 120 + 30+20+10+ 30%

30%

37%

47%

48%

46%

17% 4%

2% 1%

17% 3%

1% .9%

11% 3%

2% 1%

Page 11 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

San Francisco’s average home sales prices rose gradually back toward the all-time high reached in Q2 2015, with Q4’s average home sale of $1.625 million being the third-highest quarterly figure in market history. This number was up 5 percent from the previous quarter and up 6 percent from the previous year. This occurred while a total of 620 homes sold—a 9 percent gain quarter-over-quarter but a 5 percent drop year-over-year. The average 28 DOM here was another signifier that San Francisco homes are as in-demand as ever. It’s unlikely that the average sales price will leave the $1.5 million to $2 million range anytime in the near future.

SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$1,624,537

$829

change

-1%

Q3 2015

$1,544,370

$834

Q4 2015

$1,624,537

$829

change

-14%

11%

Q4 2014

$1,534,805

$747

Page 12 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

5947+ 65+ 59+ 65+ 51+ 69+ 62+ 68+ 49+ 73+ 67+ 67+ 45+ 59+ 60+ 65+ 40+ 61+ 57+ 61+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

$1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

50+4649+4849+4857+5264+5868+6568+7077+7077+8590+7584 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted 15 percent on top of initial asking price, the highest of all Bay Area regions. When sellers tested the market, they were still able to recover 92 percent of their initial listing.

Sales Q4 2015 Q4 2014

without price change

with price change

15% 14%

-8% -9%

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10

Russian Hill, Lake Street and Laurel Heights all saw strong growth, with gains of 78 percent, 53 percent and 52 percent, respectively. Cow Hollow and the Marina District also posted impressive gains above 25 percent. The major uptick in Telegraph Hill’s average sales price was due to one outlier netting a hefty $10.69 million.

Neighborhood

Q4 2015

Q4 2014

change

Telegraph Hill

$10,690,000

$765,000

1297%

Pacific Heights

$6,068,750

$5,502,733

10%

Cow Hollow

$5,841,429

$4,329,725

35%

Russian Hill

$4,943,200

$2,772,500

78%

Marina

$4,353,698

$3,457,500

26%

> $1000/sqft

Presidio Heights

$4,290,000

$5,293,750

-19%

< $1000/sqft

Lake Street

$3,706,667

$2,425,778

53%

Laurel Heights

$3,537,500

$2,334,233

52%

Mission Dolores

$3,218,750

$3,204,750

North Panhandle

$3,137,500

$3,595,000

-13%

San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot

< $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 13 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Like the home market, the San Francisco condominium sector experienced its third-highest average sales price in market history with the average unit closing at $1.233 million. This was a 3 percent gain from the previous quarter and a 10 percent improvement from Q4 2014. With condominiums at a premium and inventory low for most of 2015, the 591 units sold in Q4 marked the closest that any quarter in 2015 had come to matching its previous yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s tally of 598 units sold. This figure was also a welcome 15 percent uptick from Q3 2015. The average 33 DOM was a quick but rather normal number for this endlessly in-demand market.

SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco County Condominiums

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$1,233,220

$1,019

change

20%

Q3 2015

$1,198,373

$1,013

Q4 2015

$1,233,220

$1,019

change

10%

-16%

12%

Q4 2014

$1,116,435

$909

Page 14 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

4346+ 55+ 48+ 45+ 46+ 69+ 66+ 58+ 50+ 75+ 69+ 66+ 53+ 71+ 61+ 59+ 46+ 65+ 51+ 59+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

37+3935+4035+3938+41 +46 +5049+5152+5854+5561+6260+61 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

$1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Sales Price Change

Condominiums that required no price change gained 8 percent on top the initial listing price. Sellers who tested the market saw their units reclaim a strong 93 percent of initial asking price.

Sales Q4 2015 Q4 2014

without price change with price change 8%

-7%

-6%

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10

As unit prices climbed both from Q3 2015 and Q4 2014, Clarendon Heights, Alamo Square, Yerba Buena, Buena Vista Park and Lower Pacific Heights all saw gains of 30 percent or more from the previous year.

Neighborhood

Q4 2015

Q4 2014

change

Clarendon Heights

$1,950,000

$1,438,000

36%

Cow Hollow

$1,940,222

$1,808,102

Russian Hill

$1,769,656

$1,579,500

12%

Alamo Square

$1,662,500

$921,718

80%

Pacific Heights

$1,646,235

$1,466,190

12%

Presidio Heights

$1,639,832

$1,988,333

-18%

< $700/sqft

Marina

$1,556,667

$1,478,333

< $500/sqft

Yerba Buena

$1,528,278

$1,070,792

43%

Buena Vista Park

$1,478,667

$1,137,000

30%

Lower Pacific Heights

$1,450,119

$910,000

59%

San Francisco Condominium Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft

Page 15 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Mid-Peninsula homes topped the $1.5 million average mark for the fourth consecutive quarter, with the average home selling at $1.566 million in Q4. This was a 12 percent gain year-overyearâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;the second-largest gain this quarter among all seven counties we represent. The luxury sector contributed to much of this activity as tech millionaires are finding areas like Atherton among the most desirable communities in the U.S. However, these stellar sales price numbers were offset by a depleted inventory that saw 1,013 homes sell. This was an 8 percent decrease from the previous year. High demand pushed homes to sell fast, with the average 28 DOM seemingly brisk for an area with such high price tags.

SAN MATEO COUNTY

San Mateo County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$1,566,044

$771

change

-3%

28%

-2%

Q3 2013

$1,609,651

$784

Q4 2015

$1,566,044

$771

change

12%

-7%

10%

Q4 2014

$1,394,157

$698

Page 16 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

4636+ 55+ 54+ 36+ 40+ 64+ 53+ 55+ 41+ 65+ 62+ 55+ 41+ 66+ 66+ 55+ 36+ 70+ 69+ 50+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

45+47 5147+ 4645+ 5356+ 5258+ 6465+ 6272+ 7471+ 7077+ 7877+ 80 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

$1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted 106 percent of initial asking price. When sellers tested the market—as they often did— 87 percent of their listing price was recovered. This shortfall should at least provide some relief for those buyers who think no MidPeninsula home asking price is too high.

Sales Q4 2015 Q4 2014

without price change with price change 6%

-13%

-12 %

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Atherton continued to act as a magnet for Bay Area affluence. Its average home sale of $7.227 million was a 27 percent gain yearover year. This included a $35.3 million sale and four additional sales of $9 million or more.

City

Q4 2015

Q4 2014

change

Atherton

$7,227,000

$5,709,724

27%

Hillsborough

$4,421,010

$3,897,043

13%

Woodside

$3,716,819

$3,413,445

Portola Valley

$3,029,258

$2,832,541

> $1000/sqft

Menlo Park

$2,295,988

$2,065,959

11%

< $1000/sqft

Burlingame

$2,080,578

$1,750,909

19%

Redwood Shores

$1,674,970

$1,331,426

26%

San Carlos

$1,657,961

$1,459,094

14%

Foster City

$1,605,947

$1,393,148

15%

Belmont

$1,520,090

$1,317,799

15%

San Mateo County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot

< $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 17 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

With the economic boom of the tech market enabling more professionals to pursue affluent properties, Marin Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; where much of that financial trajectory is centralizedâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;continued to see stellar home prices. The $1.516 million average home sale in Q4 was the highest in Marin County history, up 11 percent year-over-year. The 515 total homes sold was a fairly standard number for this time of year in a market where inventory remains scarce. The average 53 DOM before a close showed an 18 percent faster turnaround time than what we witnessed a year prior, pointing to the committed focus and action of buyers in this bustling marketplace.

MARIN COUNTY

Marin County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$1,515,679

$646

change

Q3 2015

$1,501,876

$623

Q4 2015

$1,515,679

$646

change

11%

-18%

12%

Q4 2014

$1,370,066

$575

Page 18 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

4537+ 55+ 52+ 44+ 43+ 67+ 66+ 59+ 42+ 77+ 70+ 55+ 42+ 76+ 61+ 52+ 37+ 70+ 62+ 51+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

47+5350+4847+5350+5253+6162+6070+6968+69 +7175+ 76 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

$1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted 3 percent on top of initial listing, whereas sellers who tested the market recovered 90 percent of their initial asking price. These are fairly well-balanced numbers for a market with such bullish growth—meaning that Marin County homes are generally being priced accurately in terms of market value and buyer expectations.

Sales Q4 2015 Q4 2014

without price change with price change 3% 2%

-10% -10%

Average Sales Price by City The Top Ten

Ross remained a popular luxury home option, with its $5.288 million average home sale up 41 percent year-over-year. This included three closings between $7.5 million and $10.5 million. Bolinas also saw massive growth, with its average home sale up 98 percent from Q4 2014 at just under $2.5 million

City

Q4 2015

Q4 2014

change

Ross

$5,287,500

$3,740,385

41%

Belvedere

$3,762,000

$3,823,333

-2%

Tiburon

$3,104,293

$2,929,481

Bolinas

$2,425,000

$1,221,667

98%

Kentfield

$2,366,813

$1,971,100

20%

< $1000/sqft

Sausalito

$2,110,563

$1,480,000

43%

< $900/sqft

Mill Valley

$1,813,595

$1,575,178

15%

Larkspur

$1,713,393

$1,629,667

Stinson Beach

$1,697,143

$2,901,429

-42%

Greenbrae

$1,536,542

$1,266,528

21%

Marin County Single-Family Homes Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 19 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

The Napa County home market was red hot in Q4 as buyers priced out of Marin County went all-in on this more affordably priced region in the North Bay. The surge in activity included Napa County’s average home sale price hitting a record $928,126. This was up 11 percent from the former record set in Q3 2015 and up a massive 26 percent year-over-year. To put this growth in further perspective, Q4’s average home sale was more than double what the market was yielding just five years ago—$446,319 in Q4 2010. Much of this is driven by depleted inventory, which was evidenced in the 273 Napa County home sales being down 22 percent from the previous quarter. The average 84DOM was a fairly typical number for the area.

NAPA COUNTY

Napa County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$928,126

$438

change

11%

23%

Q3 2015

$833,580

$409

Q4 2015

$928,126

$438

change

26%

-4%

18%

Q4 2014

$734,931

$371

Page 20 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

3328+ 29+ 36+ 34+ 32+ 31+ 42+ 38+ 36+ 26+ 36+ 38+ 30+ 21+ 34+ 27+ 25+ 34+ 35+ 27+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

500 400 300 200 100 0

Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400

43+45 49+ 43+ 51+ 49+ 50+ 53+ 65+ 52+ 66+ 67+ 68+ 72+ 79+ 83+ 73+ 75+ 78+ 83+ 93+ Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Sales Price Change

With homes priced at a premium, little fluctuation was seen for buyers who did not adjust their initial selling price. For those who tested the market, 90 percent of their initial listing was returned.

Sales Q4 2015 Q4 2014

without price change with price change -1%

-10%

-2%

-11%

Napa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft

Average Sales Price by City

With Napa County increasingly moving in the direction of a luxury hub, it’s fitting that the county saw three of the North Bay’s top five sales this quarter. This included a home in Napa proper selling for $11 million, a $10.95 million sale in St. Helena and a $9.35 million sale in Yountville. Napa proper also posted a strong 28 percent year-over-year gain on its average sale.

City

Q4 2015

Q4 2014

change

Yountville

$1,948,722

$1,010,015

93%

St. Helena

$1,873,341

$1,053,544

78%

Napa

$879,647

$687,798

28%

Calistoga

$668,507

$823,488

-19%

Angwin

$665,000

$2,240,000

-70%

Deer Park

$600,000

N/A

American Canyon

$446,167

$422,370

Pope Valley

$179,000

N/A

< $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 21 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Sonoma County displayed very steady trends across the board in relation to its previous 2015 market activity. The average home sold for $627,525—a modest 4 percent gain year-over-year—but still the third-highest quarter on record. Sales volume was also less erratic than in some other Bay Area counties. The 1,177 homes sold was up 6 percent year-over-year, but fell slightly by 9 percent from the typically busier third quarter. This marked the third consecutive fourth quarter in which Sonoma County sales volume totaled between 1,100 and 1,200—a rare pattern in a market that affords few. The average 64 DOM was quicker than what we saw this time last year, but was generally in line with what we’ve come to expect of this market.

SONOMA COUNTY

Sonoma County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$627,525

$373

change

-5%

Q3 2015

$664,008

$371

Q4 2015

$627,525

$373

change

-13%

12%

Q4 2014

$604,819

$332

Page 22 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

5750+ 49+ 58+ 63+ 61+ 58+ 74+ 71+ 63+ 48+ 70+ 69+ 55+ 44+ 62+ 68+ 56+ 38+ 68+ 63+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

42+45 4042+ 4138+ 4045+ 4447+ 4654+ 55+ 59+ 5960+ 5866+ 67 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350

Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Sales Price Change

Little deviation was seen between list prices and selling prices as Sonoma County sellers have been able to harness the vantage point of a more stabilized market. When sellers tested the market, 91 percent of their initial listing was recovered.

Sales Q4 2015 Q4 2014

without price change

with price change

-9%

Sonoma County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Average Sales Price by City

Kenwood, Glen Ellen and Geyserville each experienced strong gains, with average home sales jumping by 52 percent, 35 percent and 30 percent, respectively.

City

Q4 2015

Q4 2014

change

Kenwood

$1,691,333

$1,111,929

52%

Glen Ellen

$1,299,960

$963,012

35%

Sonoma

$1,001,582

$830,182

21%

Fulton

$1,000,000

N/A

Geyserville

$957,274

$735,567

30%

Bodega

$900,000

N/A

Bodega Bay

$842,739

$835,445

Healdsburg

$840,406

$891,900

-6%

Sebastopol

$819,754

$892,381

-8%

The Sea Ranch

$812,133

$669,222

21%

Page 23 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Alameda County home prices stayed strong in Q4, with the $803,605 average sale up 9 percent year-over-year. Additionally, this marked the third consecutive quarter in which the market topped $800,000. The 2,478 home sales also showed a slight improvement year-over-year, and nearly matched the total number of home sales in its neighboring Contra Costa County. Alameda Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s average 25 DOM was the fastest turnaround rate among all seven Bay Area counties we represent.

ALAMEDA COUNTY

Alameda County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$803,605

$468

change

-2%

29%

Q3 2015

$822,239

$466

Q4 2015

$803,605

$468

change

-8%

13%

Q4 2014

$739,297

$415

Page 24 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

6254+ 72+ 70+ 67+ 59+ 81+ 74+ 65+ 46+ 65+ 72+ 63+ 45+ 65+ 72+ 60+ 41+ 73+ 72+ 64+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

50+4649+4845+4351+54 +5668+ 66+ 79+7574+7686+8280 Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

$850 $800 $750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 $450

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted 107 percent of the initial listing price, while sellers who tested the market received 94 percent of their initial asking price. Both of these numbers favor a market in which sellers have strong control.

Sales Q4 2015 Q4 2014

without price change with price change 7% 6%

-6% -7%

Alameda County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

Alameda proper performed exceptionally this quarter, with its average home sale of $1.034 million up 25 percent year-over-year. This number came from a large data pool and included no sales above $2.7 million, meaning that the 25 percent gain is an accurate representation of the market’s trajectory.

City

Q4 2015

Q4 2014

change

Piedmont

$1,881,056

$1,925,414

-2%

Sunol

$1,300,000

N/A

Pleasanton

$1,209,410

$1,110,409

Berkeley

$1,175,804

$1,059,537

11%

Alameda

$1,030,420

$825,097

25%

> $1000/sqft

Albany

$997,175

$868,941

15%

< $1000/sqft

Fremont

$943,116

$910,197

< $900/sqft

Dublin

$915,656

$911,596

Hayward

$859,914

$718,388

20%

Livermore

$767,637

$678,729

13%

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 25 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

Contra Costa County saw relatively stable trends across the board in Q4 2015. Its average home sale price of $663,647 was up 5 percent year-over-year, but was down slightly from peak levels. The 2,496 homes sold was a 7 percent gain from Q4 2014, but still not large enough to signal any major inventory opening. The average 30DOM was very typical for an area in which the span of a month has become the standard-bearer for closing on a property.

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

Contra Costa County Single-Family Homes

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q4 2015

$663,647

$332

change

-7%

21%

-3%

Q3 2015

$710,004

$341

Q4 2015

$663,647

$332

change

-9%

Q4 2014

$632,391

$309

Page 26 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

2725+ 32+ 2826+ 3430+ 2520+ 2729+ 2318+ 2728+ 2318+ 30+ 25 39+44 3641+ 37+ 46+ 47+ 4962+ 6361+ 5969+ 63+ 7471+ 66 Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200

Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q4‘10 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15

Sales Price Change

Sellers who required no price change gained 2 percent on top of their initial asking price while those who tested the market were able to recover 93 percent of their initial listing.

Sales

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

Alamo saw particularly strong growth in Q4 with a $4.95 million sale and 14 additional sales above the $2 million mark. This all amounted to a 20 percent year-over-year gain in Alamo’s average home sale.

without price change with price change

Q4 2015

-7%

City

Q4 2015

Q4 2014

change

Q4 2014

-7%

Alamo

$1,995,754

$1,602,367

-20%

Blackhawk

$1,913,174

$1,576,280

-18%

Diablo

$1,800,000

$1,934,256

Lafayette

$1,409,199

$1,367,643

-3%

Moraga

$1,303,028

$1,150,056

-12%

Orinda

$1,278,940

$1,366,622

Danville

$1,267,632

$1,243,536

-2%

< $1000/sqft

Kensington

$1,075,833

$945,429

-12%

< $900/sqft

Walnut creek

$1,021,354

$965,388

-5%

San ramon

$1,021,103

$941,798

-8%

Contra Costa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 27 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2015

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