McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report | First Quarter 2016 by McGuire Real Estate

FIRST QUARTER 2016

* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 2 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Table of Contents Letter from the President

Page 4

Regional Market Trends

Page 5

The Luxury Market

Page 8

San Francisco County

Page 12

San Mateo County

Page 16

Marin County

Page 18

Napa County

Page 20

Sonoma County

Page 22

Alameda County

Page 24

Contra Costa County

Page 26

Counties Represented

Napa Sonoma Marin Contra Costa San Francisco

Alameda

San Mateo

Page 3 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Letter from the President

Charles Moore President and CEO

Q1 Shows Price Stabilization, Slow Sales, Strong Returns in Affordable Areas Market activity in the first quarter wasn’t necessarily strong or weak, but it was far from business as usual. We saw low sales volume, particularly in the higher-priced counties, both due to the ongoing inventory shortage and also more seasonal factors. At the same time, the upward pricing surge of markets like Contra Costa, Alameda, Napa and Sonoma Counties continued. And then we saw low-to-stable average sales prices in Marin County, San Francisco and the Mid-Peninsula. In all, we witnessed a dynamic market that could have various short term implications including—and perhaps most significantly—a more balanced, healthy and buyer-accessible outlook for the remainder of 2016. A clear division in market dynamics and outlook could be seen between the higher-priced coastal counties and the sub-seven-figure counties. Despite all its complexities and typically aberrant behavior, San Francisco served as a model for Q1 activity in the more affluent areas, and also as a potential indicator for their near future. The average home sale price of $1.689 million— despite being the highest Q1 figure in market history— was up only 3 percent year-over-year. Properties left the market quickly when listed, but low inventory and a familiar

“A leveling out in the higher-priced markets has created more opportunity for buyers, and also a feeling for sellers that they won’t be left optionless if they choose to sell and search elsewhere in the Bay Area.”

seasonal lag led to just 350 total sales. This was the lowest sales volume total since Q1 2009. San Mateo and Marin Counties also saw either nominal or negative year-over-year sales volume numbers, and experienced no price gain from Q1 2015. That’s not to say that sales volume and prices will continue to stay low in the higher-tier counties, especially as a busy Q2 kicks into gear. A recent San Francisco Chronicle article noted an influx of thousands of new luxury condominiums in the city over the next five years, and McGuire agents are noticing an increase in both fastidious buyers and willing sellers in San Mateo and Marin Counties. That “willing sellers” piece is particularly important to the market’s forecast: Unlike over the past few years, we are now seeing both the buyer and seller negotiate terms and have a voice at the table. A leveling out in the higher-priced markets has created more opportunity for buyers, and also a feeling for sellers that they won’t be left without options if they choose to sell and search elsewhere in the Bay Area. Which brings us to Contra Costa, Alameda, Napa and Sonoma Counties, all of which experienced price gains of at least 7 percent yearover-year, with a 28 percent gain and record average sales price in Napa County. While sales volume wasn’t high in any of these areas, it was generally on pace with the previous year. These regions also offer hope to those looking to cash in on luxury properties and move inland, as there is still quite a bit of land primed for development. As we look to Q2, we expect the seasonal price spike, but as was demonstrated in the higher-tier counties, it will generally be in the form of single-digit appreciation. We are also anticipating a strong interest in the ultra-prime market provided there is interesting inventory available, as the local economy remains flush. Most of all though, we expect a healthier buyer-seller dynamic to emerge in the coming year.

view this report on our website: mcguire.com/quarterly_report * Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 4 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Regional Market Trends Three major patterns emerged in Q1 2016 that in all aren’t markedly different from what we’ve come to expect in what is traditionally the slowest selling season in the Bay Area. First, low inventory and less frenzied house-hunting led to low sales volume tallies, especially in the three high-priced areas of Marin County, San Francisco and the Mid-Peninsula. Secondly, the more affordably priced counties experienced some very strong average home sales price gains as they continue attract buyers priced out of areas like San Francisco. And lastly, those three toppriced counties began to show patterns of price stabilization that could begin to open up the market as we move into the busy spring season. The strong activity in more affordable sectors was best seen in the 28 percent year-over-year average sales price gain in Napa County. It’s $964,164 record average was more than double what the market drew just four years ago, and marked the fifth consecutive quarter in which sales prices had risen. Contra Costa, Alameda and Sonoma Counties all saw encouraging year-over-year gains of 7 percent, 10 percent and 12 percent, respectively. The latter three counties also experienced slight sales volume gains from Q1 2015—a silver lining given the rest of sales volume activity in the Bay Area. In terms of low sales, San Francisco and Marin County were affected the most, with volume down 13 percent and 17 percent year-over-year, respectively. Despite its dramatic average sales price gains, Napa County also saw a 9 percent decline in sales from Q1 2015, and the San Francisco condominium sector experienced a 7 percent drop-off. The reasons for this quarter’s low sales volume are manifold and in most cases rather less daunting: stock market volatility, an unexpected ski season, and low sales in February due to Super Bowl traffic. These factors aside, severely low inventory remains a legitimate concern in areas like the city and Marin County. But that’s where the stabilizing sales prices in these areas could alleviate some concerns. Marin and San Mateo Counties both saw average home sales price drop by a few percentage points from last year, and San Francisco saw only a 3 percent year-over-year gain. This can be interpreted as both buyers and sellers having a role in the negotiation process, which makes for a healthier marketplace. Ideally, it also gives some potential sellers confidence that if they sell their home they won’t be priced out of the market before they find a replacement. In other words, prices slightly down in the big three counties might actually lead to some much-needed market balance.

All REGIONS

$2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 0

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Quantity

Q1 2016

$928,971

$487

6020

change

-1%

-3%

-30%

Q4 2015

$934,900

$503

8572

Q1 2016

$928,971

$487

6020

change

-8%

Q1 2015

$894,303

$473

6021

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

�+�+�5149+�4748+�4649+�4548+�5357+�5652+�5264+�58+�6468+�65+�6268+�7270+�417477+�+�+�+�4678+�45+�77 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

East Bay

North Bay

Mid-Peninsula

San Francisco

Page 5 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Regional Market Share With sales volume generally low, the Bay Area netted $592 billion in total sales this quarter. The East Bay contributed 59 percent of all home sales and 48 percent of the cash share. Aided by Napa Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s strong gains, the North Bay accounted for 23 percent of all home sales and 21 percent of cash share. The Mid-Peninsula saw 12 percent of all sales and 20 percent of cash share, and San Francisco added 6 percent of sales and 11 percent of cash share. All of these figures were generally in line with typical sales and cash share ratios for the season.

6+12+2359A 11+20+2148A Market Share by Unit

Market Share by Volume

San Francisco 6%

San Francisco 11%

Mid-Peninsula 12%

Mid-Peninsula 20%

North Bay 23%

North Bay 21%

East Bay 59%

East Bay 48%

Page 6 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Quantity Sold by Price Single-Family Homes North Bay: 1,368 Marin, Napa, Sonoma

East Bay: 3,552 Contra Costa, Alameda

San Francisco: 350

> $5,000,000 < $4,000,000

Mid-Peninsula: 750

< $3,000,000 < $2,000,000 < $1,000,000 > $1,000,000

Page 7 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

The Luxury Market Defined by the top 10 percent of an area’s sales, the luxury market finally saw its numbers cool down after a blistering hot 2015. The largest reason for this was simply a dearth of high-priced options after the feeding frenzy of the past few years. The ultra-prime market ($10 million-plus) did show some impressive sales and volume in line with what we’ve come to expect, but a shortage in the $3-to $10-million range led to a general drop in average sales prices and sales volume for Q1. However, the lower-tier of the luxury market did show some strong results. San Francisco was most representative of this quarter’s overall trend. The city saw its average home sale price of $4.79 million down 9 percent year-over-year, with the 35 total home sales also down 13 percent from Q1 2015. Those looking to move high-priced homes in the spring shouldn’t be too concerned by these figures, as it’s more a byproduct of a depleted high-end market than any tangible value change. This was evidenced by homes in this sector moving on average in just 29 DOM—that’s 33 percent faster than during the previous year, and also the lowest figure among all four regions. A different dynamic was found in the East Bay, where luxury properties without the high-end price tag continue to drive an increasingly popular market. The $2.075 million average sale here was a massive 22 percent year-over-year gain, as well as a 23 percent gain from Q4 2015. Standout areas included Lafayette and its four $3 million-plus sales, as well as Alamo and its five $2.9 million-plus closings. The East Bay also featured the highest sale among all four regions in the form of a $20.5 million closing in Oakland. The flipside to these stellar numbers was the region showing only 227 total sales, down 38 percent year-over-year. The Mid-Peninsula and North Bay acted more as medians between the more pronounced figures of San Francisco and the East Bay. The Mid-Peninsula saw its average home sale price drop by 8 percent year-over-year, while sales volume rose 4 percent. The North Bay saw a 1 percent drop in average sales price and just a 3 percent drop in sales volume. * Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 8 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

SAN FRANCISCO Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$4,790,053

$1,341

change

-43%

-14%

Q4 2015

$4,630,530

$1,249

Q1 2016

$4,790,053

$1,341

change

-9%

-13%

-33%

Q1 2015

$5,270,822

$1,318

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$4,225,063

$1,197

change

-9%

-26%

-10%

Q4 2015

$4,631,811

103

$1,120

Q1 2016

$4,225,063

$1,197

change

-8%

-22%

10%

Q1 2015

$4,586,452

$1,092

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$2,663,612

137

126

$820

change

-8%

-30%

59%

-11%

Q4 2015

$2,899,997

196

$919

Q1 2016

$2,663,612

137

126

$820

change

-1%

-3%

54%

Q1 2015

$2,686,224

141

$824

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$2,074,758

227

$548

change

23%

-56%

14%

Q4 2015

$1,690,254

511

$542

Q1 2016

$2,074,758

227

$548

change

22%

-38%

28%

Q1 2015

$1,698,038

367

$502

MID-PENINSULA

NORTH BAY

EAST BAY

Page 9 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Bay Area Luxury Market Share The East Bay dominated the luxury market this quarter, with 35 percent of all sales and 42 percent of total cash share. The Mid-Peninsula added 29 percent of sales and 25 percent of cash share. The North Bay provided 19 percent of all sales and 18 percent of cash share, and San Francisco tallied 17 percent of sales and 14 percent of total cash share. In all, this amounted to 1,779 properties netting $3.094 billion in the Bay Area during Q1.

19+35+2917A 18+25+4215A Market Share by Unit

Market Share by Volume

San Francisco 17%

San Francisco 14%

Mid-Peninsula 29%

Mid-Peninsula 25%

North Bay 19%

North Bay 18%

East Bay 35%

East Bay 42%

Page 10 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Sales Trends Luxury Homes

Price Range As a Percent of Sales $0-$500K

$500K-$1M

$1M-$2M

Price Per Square Foot

$2M-$3M

$3M-$5M

> $1,000/sqft >= $1,000/sqft >= $900/sqft

$5M+

>= $700/sqft >= $500/sqft

San Francisco Single-Family Homes

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q1 2015

< $500/sqft

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=10290 + +470130 + 70 + 30+ =290 +0 +525110 + 50 + 30+ =10400 + 380 + 120 + 60 + 35+ 1%

29%

47%

13%

2.9%

29%

52%

11%

2.7%

40%

38%

12%

3.8%

Mid-Peninsula 0%

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q1 2015

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=10410 + 400 + 100 + 50 + 20+ =10410 + 400 + 100 + +5020+ =20400 + 420 + 90 + 50 + 20+ 1%

41%

40%

10%

41%

40%

10%

2.7%

40%

42%

North Bay 0%

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q1 2015

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=280500 + +17030+10+6+ =300465 + 165 + 40+20+8+ =370450 + 120 + 30+20+10+ 28%

30%

50%

47%

38%

41%

17% 3%

1% .66%

17% 4%

2% .8%

15% 4%

2% .7%

East Bay 0%

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q1 2015

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=390440 + 140 + 14+2+1 =385455 + 140 + 12+2+1 =480380 + 120 + 12+3+1 39%

44%

14%

1.44% 0.26% 0.05%

39%

46%

14%

1.2% 0.26% 0.03%

40%

45%

14%

1.25% 0.33% 0%

Page 11 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

San Francisco County Single-Family Homes The average San Francisco home sale of $1.689 million marked both the highest Q1 average sales price and the second-highest average sales price for any quarter in the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s history. Still, a light 3 percent gain on the previous Q1 was certainly an indicator of a market leveling out, and would have been lower if it werenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t for severely low inventory and the customary high demand. The 350 sales this quarter was, after all, the lowest figure since Q1 2009. The average 31 DOM was normal for the area, and normalcy in other areas can be expected as we move into the busy spring season.

SAN FRANCISCO - SFH Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$1,688,739

$862

change

Q4 2015

$1,624,537

$829

Q1 2016

$1,688,739

$862

change

-5%

Q1 2015

$1,640,255

$797

Page 12 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

4765+ 59+ 65+ 51+ 69+ 62+ 68+ 49+ 73+ 67+ 67+ 45+ 59+ 60+ 65+ 40+ 61+ 57+ 62+ 35+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

$1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

46+4948+4948+5752+6458+6865+6870+7770+7785+9075+8488 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted a Bay Area-leading 14 percent gain on initial listing. Sellers who tested the market were able to recover 92 percent of their initial listing, up from 88 percent in Q1 2015.

Sales Q1 2016 Q1 2015

without price change

with price change

14%

-8%

14%

-12%

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10

Clarendon Heights posted strong gains of 62 percent yearover-year. Five other neighborhoods closed with a gain of at least 20 percent. The massive gain in Lower Pacific Heights was illustrative of a few large sales in too small a data pool to signify any real upward valuation. That principle can be applied to most San Francisco neighborhoods, given the low sales volume.

Neighborhood

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

change

Pacific Heights

$6,519,833

$7,567,889

-14%

Cow Hollow

$5,154,622

$9,750,000

-47%

Lower Pacific Heights

$4,165,000

$1,207,500

245%

North Beach

$4,000,000

N/A

> $1000/sqft

Sea Cliff

$3,887,500

$3,091,714

26%

< $1000/sqft

Lake Street

$3,777,667

$3,116,667

21%

Buena Vista Park

$3,359,233

$3,871,571

-13%

St. Francis Wood

$3,175,000

$4,590,000

-31%

Clarendon Heights

$3,140,000

$1,937,500

62%

Marina District

$3,023,750

$2,966,375

San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot

< $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 13 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

San Francisco County Condominiums The condominium market performed in much the same fashion as the housing market, with strong average sales prices and low sales volume. The $1.242 million average sale was the second-highest figure in city history, but as in the home sector, was relatively level with Q1 2015. The 431 units sold was the lowest figure since Q1 2010, and occurred both due to limited inventory and some of the less vital reasons that also affected home sales. The average 34 DOM was right in line with what has become expected from this ferociously in-demand market.

SAN FRANCISCO - CONDOMINIUMS Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$1,242,147

$1,045

change

Q4 2015

$1,233,220

$1,019

Q1 2016

$1,242,147

$1,045

change

Q1 2015

$1,234,038

$1,012

Page 14 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

4655+ 48+ 45+ 46+ 69+ 66+ 58+ 50+ 75+ 69+ 66+ 53+ 71+ 61+ 59+ 46+ 65+ 51+ 59+ 43+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

39+3540+3539+3841+ 46+ 50+4951+5258+5455+6162+6061+62 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

$1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Sales Price Change

Units that required no sales price change took in 6 percent on top of their initial asking price, while sellers who tested the market received 91 percent of their initial listing.

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10

One strong area that had substantive sales volume and median-price backing was Russian Hill. The 9 home sales here

Sales Q1 2016 Q1 2015

without price change

with price change

averaged $2.33 million, up 22 percent from Q1 2015. This

-9%

continued the neighborhood’s ongoing upward trajectory,

-9%

and included a $5.5 million closing.

Neighborhood

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

change

Russian Hill

$2,330,000

$1,902,073

22%

Presidio Heights

$2,312,500

$1,675,000

38%

Pacific Heights

$1,974,988

$1,677,148

18%

Cow Hollow

$1,903,333

$1,801,267

Marina District

$1,735,667

$1,523,350

14%

< $1000/sqft

Financial District

$1,695,833

$1,809,300

-6%

< $900/sqft

Mission Dolores

$1,575,071

$1,107,095

42%

Ashbury Hts/Cole Valley

$1,451,667

$1,583,481

-8%

Lake Street

$1,450,000

$1,258,600

15%

Inner Sunset

$1,434,000

$1,090,000

32%

San Francisco Condominium Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 15 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

San Mateo County Single-Family Homes Relative to the sluggish sales volume in the two other seven-figure counties, San Mateo County performed rather well, with its 750 total sales a fairly standard number for this time of year. This also occurred as the $1.521 million average home sales price remained above $1.5 million for the fifth consecutive quarter. As for the fact that the Peninsula did not see a yearover-year price gain, this is due both to a market that is beginning to level off as well as sellers simply attempting to price too high (typically at about an expected 10 percent appreciation from Q1 2015). The fact that this market is beginning to show some buyerfriendly signs should create for a bustling Q2 2016. Sellers should find some confidence in the average 28 DOM continuing to remain very low for such an affluent area.

SAN MATEO COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$1,521,198

$802

change

-3%

Q4 2015

$1,566,044

$771

Q1 2016

$1,521,198

$802

change

-1%

-7%

Q1 2015

$1,533,611

$739

Page 16 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

3655+ 54+ 36+ 40+ 64+ 53+ 55+ 41+ 65+ 62+ 55+ 41+ 66+ 66+ 55+ 36+ 70+ 69+ 50+ 38+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

51+45 4746+ 4553+ 5652+ 5864+ 6562+ 7274+ 7170+ 7778+ 7780+ 79 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

$1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted 106 percent of their initial listing. When sellers tested the market—as many did—their 85 percent net of initial asking price was the lowest figure among all seven counties. Sales Q1 2016 Q1 2015

without price change

with price change

-15%

-10%

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Woodside and Burlingame performed well this quarter, each seeing a 17 percent gain from Q1 2015. This included five sales of more than $5 million in Woodside.

City

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

change

Atherton

$5,882,500

$7,975,455

-26%

Hillsborough

$4,150,794

$4,443,292

-7%

Woodside

$3,842,714

$3,272,800

17%

Portola Valley

$2,907,000

$3,108,250

-6%

Menlo Park

$2,264,212

$2,269,577

Burlingame

$2,109,848

$1,810,149

17%

< $1000/sqft

San Gregorio

$1,840,000

$700,000

163%

< $900/sqft

Redwood Shores

$1,787,908

N/A

San Carlos

$1,748,428

$1,576,106

11%

Foster City

$1,564,368

$1,547,846

San Mateo County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 17 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Marin County Single-Family Homes With luxury-priced inventory extremely thin in Q1, itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s not all that surprising that Marin County experienced a dip in both its average home sale price and sales volume. The $1.389 million average home sale was the lowest such figure in five quarters. However, it did come in the wake of Marin County showing its highestever average sales price in Q4 2015, so itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s natural that activity started to normalize a bit. The 313 home sales total was down 17 percent year-over-year, and marked the lowest sales volume since Q1 2009. Much of this can be attributed to the gold rush of the past few quarters creating for an unusually low amount of options in the area. The average 65 DOM was up slightly from the previous year. While sales volume could get a nudge from the busy spring season, inventory should remain low. Expect average sales price to rise a bit in the coming months.

MARIN COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$1,388,771

$305

change

-8%

23%

-39%

Q4 2015

$1,515,679

$504

Q1 2016

$1,388,771

$305

change

-2%

16%

-18%

Q1 2015

$1,413,890

$372

Page 18 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

3755+ 52+ 44+ 43+ 67+ 66+ 59+ 42+ 77+ 70+ 55+ 42+ 76+ 61+ 52+ 37+ 70+ 62+ 51+ 31+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

53+5048+4753+5052+5361+6260+7069+6869+ 71+75 +7667 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

$1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change saw a 3 percent gain on initial asking price, while sellers who tested the market recovered 89 percent of their initial listing.

Sales Q1 2016 Q1 2015

without price change

with price change

-11%

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Among the bright spots in Marin County were Tiburon and Sausalito, which saw average home sale prices rise 28 percent and 37 percent, respectively. This included the county’s standout sale of $13 million in Tiburon.

City

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

change

Tiburon

$3,477,467

$2,723,148

28%

Belvedere

$3,465,000

$4,138,938

-16%

Sausalito

$2,515,500

$1,708,333

47%

Stinson Beach

$2,450,000

$3,483,500

-30%

Ross

$2,406,250

$4,943,750

-51%

< $1000/sqft

Kentfield

$2,382,000

$2,365,616

< $900/sqft

Nicasio

$2,250,000

N/A

Bolinas

$2,100,000

$2,297,500

-9%

Inverness

$2,057,500

$665,500

209%

Greenbrae

$1,861,286

$1,703,500

Marin County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 19 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Napa County Single-Family Homes Napa County continued to experience increased demand, as evidenced in its record average home

NAPA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$964,164

102

$224

change

-21%

-17%

Q4 2015

$928,126

$271

Q1 2016

$964,164

102

$224

change

28%

-5%

-10%

Q1 2015

$753,163

$248

sale price of $964,164. This figure was up a Bay Arealeading 28 percent year-over-year, and marked the fifth consecutive quarter in which the countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s average home sale rose. The 225 total sales for the county was in line with the quarterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s common thread of low volume in response to low inventory, and was down 9 percent from Q1 2015. The average 102 DOM was up slightly from the previous year.

Page 20 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

2829+ 36+ 34+ 32+ 31+ 42+ 38+ 36+ 26+ 36+ 38+ 30+ 21+ 34+ 27+ 25+ 34+ 35+ 27+ 22+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

500 400 300 200 100 0

Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400

49+43 43+ 51+ 49+ 50+ 53+ 65+ 52+ 66+ 67+ 68+ 72+ 79+ 83+ 73+ 75+ 78+ 83+ 93+ 96+ Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Sales Price Change

Sellers priced high in this market, fully aware of its rapidly increasing returns. As a result, homes rarely sold over list price, and 88 percent of list price was recovered by those who tested the market. Sales Q1 2016 Q1 2015

without price change

with price change

-1%

-12%

-1%

-12%

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

Napa proper performed extremely well, with its $858,670 average home sale up 25 percent year-over-year. This sizeable data pool was largely responsible for the overall year-over-year average sale leap in the county, and also included a countyleading $18.1 million closing.

City

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

change

Deer Park

$3,300,000

N/A

Calistoga

$2,643,889

$1,257,630

110%

Angwin

$2,064,971

$459,500

349%

St. Helena

$1,469,136

$1,281,633

15%

Napa

$858,670

$687,011

25%

< $1000/sqft

Yountville

$844,444

$1,962,737

-57%

< $900/sqft

American Canyon

$431,827

$397,325

Pope Valley

$178,000

$465,079

-62%

N/A

$7,250,000

N/A

Napa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Oakville

Page 21 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Sonoma County Single-Family Homes Sonoma County experienced both the highest quarterover-quarter average sales price gain (6 percent) and the second-highest year-over-year gain (12 percent) among all seven counties. The $661,426 average home sale here was the countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s second-highest on record. As with everywhere else this quarter, sales volume was not strong. However, Sonoma County posted a 7 percent gain on the previous year with its 830 total sales. This was the highest year-over-year sales volume gain among all seven counties. The average 75 DOM was a typical number for the area. In all, Sonoma County was one of the Bay Areaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s strongest performers during Q1 2016.

SONOMA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$661,426

$820

change

17%

-29%

Q4 2015

$626,904

$1,157

Q1 2016

$661,426

$820

change

12%

-3%

Q1 2015

$588,742

$770

Page 22 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

5049+ 58+ 63+ 61+ 58+ 74+ 71+ 63+ 48+ 70+ 69+ 55+ 44+ 62+ 68+ 56+ 38+ 68+ 63+ 42+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

40+42 4241+ 3840+ 4544+ 4746+ 5455+ 59+ 59+ 6058+ 6662+ 66 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350

Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Sales Price Change

This market was priced closely in line with what buyers were willing to spend, as sellers who required no price change netted 101 percent of their listing and those who tested the market recovered 91 percent. without price change

with price change

Q1 2016

Sales

-9%

Q1 2015

-8%

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Glen Ellen saw encouraging sales across the board, including three seven-figure closings that aided its gain of 56 percent year-over-year. Penngrove also saw a 50 percent gain with all four of its sales above $800,000. Bodega Bay, Calistoga and Petaluma all performed well, with year-over-year gains of 39 percent, 28 percent and 25 percent, respectively.

City

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

change

Glen Ellen

$1,101,571

$705,854

56%

Healdsburg

$1,058,299

$1,182,806

-11%

Penngrove

$1,037,500

$691,667

50%

Bodega

$1,000,000

N/A

Bodega Bay

$953,083

$687,444

39%

Sonoma

$897,633

$784,934

14%

Geyserville

$872,500

$459,000

90%

< $700/sqft

Kenwood

$846,000

$702,833

20%

< $500/sqft

Calistoga

$775,000

$606,000

28%

Sebastopol

$750,242

$714,551

Sonoma County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft

Page 23 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Alameda County Single-Family Homes Like the more-affordably priced Sonoma and Napa Counties, the East Bay also put up Q1 numbers that were stronger—relatively speaking—than San Francisco, Marin County and the Mid-Peninsula. This was evident in Alameda County’s average home sale of $759,890, up 10 percent from Q1 2015. This figure was also up from Q4 2015 (a rarity in Q1) and was the thirdhighest average sales price in county history. Alameda County homes moved more rapidly than in any other county, with an average of just 25 DOM. The 2,051 total sales, while not staggering, were actually higher than in any of the three previous first quarters.

ALAMEDA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$759,890

$473

change

Q4 2015

$745,990

$468

Q1 2016

$759,890

$473

change

10%

-11%

11%

Q1 2015

$691,263

$424

Page 24 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

5472+ 70+ 67+ 59+ 81+ 74+ 65+ 46+ 65+ 72+ 63+ 45+ 65+ 72+ 60+ 41+ 73+ 72+ 64+ 50+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

46+4948+4543+5154+ 56+68 +66 +7975+7476+8682+8081 Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

$850 $800 $750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 $450

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Sales Price Change

Further cementing the strong performance of Alameda County this quarter, sellers who required no price change netted 107 percent of their initial listing, while those who tested the market recovered 93 percent. The latter figure tied Contra Costa County as having the best return on initial listing among all seven counties. Sales Q1 2016 Q1 2015

without price change

with price change

-6%

-7%

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

Oakland, Albany and Piedmont all performed well this quarter, with gains of 19 percent, 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively. The high sale among all East Bay properties was a $20.5 million closing in Oakland.

City

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

change

Piedmont

$2,468,500

$2,108,158

17%

Pleasanton

$1,208,931

$1,111,254

Sunol

$1,066,667

$388,917

174%

Berkeley

$1,045,296

$992,678

Fremont

$927,518

$853,128

Alameda

$911,557

$797,346

14%

Dublin

$844,512

$782,281

Albany

$773,803

$655,286

18%

< $700/sqft

Hayward

$773,250

$722,667

< $500/sqft

Livermore

$759,547

$722,964

Alameda County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft

Page 25 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Contra Costa County Single-Family Homes At $640,696, Contra Costa County’s average sales price was up 7 percent year-over-year, continuing a trend of $600,000-plus pricing that’s existed for the better part of the past two years. This occurred as a Bay-Area high 2,248 homes sold—a number up from the previous two first quarters. All this took place with homes moving in an average of just 30 DOM. This was a fairly typical number for Contra Costa County, but like the average sales price and sales volume, an indicator of one of the most successful and predictable markets in the Bay Area.

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q1 2016

$640,696

$334

change

Q4 2015

$626,582

$335

Q1 2016

$640,696

$334

change

-11%

Q1 2015

$598,785

$310

Page 26 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

2532+ 28+ 2634+ 3025+ 2027+ 2923+ 1827+ 2823+ 1830+ 25+ 21 36+39 41+ 37+ 4647+ 49+ 6263+ 6159+ 6963+ 74+ 7166+ 68 Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200

Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q1‘11 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change gained 2 percent on top of initial listing, while those who tested the market recovered a strong 93 percent of initial asking price. Sales Q1 2016 Q1 2015

without price change

with price change

-7%

-8%

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

Blackhawk posted an impressive 21 percent year-over-year gain—an unsurprising continued trend given the area’s luxury offerings at a fraction of what such properties would cost in Marin County, the Mid-Peninsula or San Francisco. Alamo and Lafayette also saw gains of 15 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

City

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

change

Diablo

$2,319,750

$2,165,500

Blackhawk

$1,937,026

$1,597,915

21%

Alamo

$1,888,528

$1,641,612

15%

Orinda

$1,634,327

$1,489,466

10%

Lafayette

$1,589,567

$1,396,535

14%

Danville

$1,201,676

$1,129,591

< $1000/sqft

Moraga

$1,163,196

$1,052,688

10%

< $900/sqft

San Ramon

$943,583

$878,354

Kensington

$850,000

$944,950

-10%

Pointriond

$850,000

N/A

Contra Costa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 27 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

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