Amid global uncertainty, recent interest rate cuts have helped sustain economic momentum, prompting most lenders to adjust mortgage rates, with further reductions anticipated on the horizon
Similar to the performance of the stock market, the volume of prestige sales kicking off the year was off to a slower start on the Gold Coast, although this is expected to pick up with a more favourable lending environment
Favourable with luxury downsizers, prestige apartments have driven recent price growth on the Gold Coast, though overall residential pace of growth has eased with more sustainable growth likely over the coming year
Although limited new luxury supply has been keeping prestige rents elevated, as the market catches it’s breath following double-digit growth, rental growth is now expected to be at a more maintainable rate
Interest Rate
3.85%
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the interest rate target 25 bps to 3 85% in May 2025 Many banks followed this direction and adjusted their mortgage lending rates accordingly. Interest rates significantly influence the cost of borrowing money, which in turn affects the willingness and ability to apply for a home loan. The RBA forecasts the target could be 3 40% by the end of 2025, and 3 20% in 2026 When interest rates are lowered, borrowing becomes cheaper, which can stimulate demand for residential property and drive economic growth
Economic Growth 1.3%
Stock Market Return
-0.7%
There have been many instances of strong stock market performance being a leading indicator for an upward momentum in prestige residential price growth Australia’s stock market performance on the S&P/ASX 200 eased in the first quarter with -3 9% growth, to calculate a total annual change of -0 7% in the year ending March 2025 This comes after annual change of -5.5% in 2022, then solid annual growth of 7 8% in 2023 and 7 5% in 2024
Economic growth remains a key driver given it can increase demand across property markets Australia recorded economic growth at 1 3% in 2024, following stronger performance of 3.1% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. Looking forward, the RBA forecasts economic growth to lift to 2 1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. Ideally, sustainable economic growth is considered to be around 2% to 3% When it comes to new private business investment in Australia, there was 0 3% growth in 2024, following significant growth of 6.1% in 2022 and 8 8% in 2023 In 2025, business investment is forecast to rise by 0.6% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.
Wealthy Population Growth
3.9%
The wealthy population across Australia continues to increase, despite the extended period of global economic instability and geopolitical shocks. The drivers of wealth creation and maintaining this wealth have been real estate and the solid underlying performance of the stock market Australasia’s wealthy population grew by 3 9% in 2024, to 49,367 people with net wealth of more than US$10 million This population is forecast to grow by a further 5.3% by the end of 2028 (or an average 1 3% per year) according to the Knight Frank Wealth Sizing Model
Source: McGrath Research, Knight Frank Research, RBA
Prestige residential sale transactions above $3 million tallied to 102 in the first quarter of 2025 on the Gold Coast, a downward movement of 13% from the previous quarter This fall in sales resulted at a time when market confidence was in a holding pattern with a federal election on the horizon and many were anticipating a further reduction in interest rates. Over the past year, the total number of prestige sales was 3% higher, reaching 491 sales
Total Number of Prestige Sales ($3m+) Gold Coast Prestige
Source: McGrath Research
The share of super-prestige sales (above $5 million) was recorded at 23%, compared to the total number of prestige sales (above $3 million) on the Gold Coast in the year ending March 2025 This was higher than one year ago when the proportion was 26%, but remains below the 28% share recorded five years ago. Over the past year, Gold Coast super-prestige sales volume has fallen by 9%, but grown over the past five years by 522%
Share of Super-Prestige Sales ($5m+), by Number Gold Coast Prestige
Source: McGrath Research
Source: McGrath Research
Gold Coast prestige homes took an average 75 days on market - from the time they were listed to the day they went under contract - in the March 2025 quarter This duration was 76 days the quarter before and 83 days one year ago A low number of days on market mean homes are selling fast with more desirable properties, while a high number of days suggests a slower market Houses averaged 84 days to sell in Q1 2025, which was 3 days longer than in Q4 2024 but 8 days less than in Q1 2024. Apartments took an average 67 days to sell, being 1 day shorter than the previous quarter and 8 days less than a year ago
Average Days on the Market Gold Coast Prestige
Source: McGrath Research
Newly advertised property listings in Regional Queensland were 10 1% lower in the month of March 2025 than the equivalent period last year. This trended above the -4.8% average for the combined regional areas of Australia
Regional Queensland’s total number of listings in the month of March 2025 were 4 0% below the equivalent period last year. By comparison, total listings were an average 0.7% higher across the combined regional areas of Australia
Source: McGrath Research, CoreLogic
Source: McGrath Research
A change in prestige property prices can provide a benchmark for market performance and can help identify emerging trends Gold Coast prestige property prices rose by 3.9% in the year ending March 2025, with 0.6% recorded in the most recent quarter Looking back at price growth over the five years from Q1 2020, prestige apartments (41 0%) outpaced prestige houses (27.8%). In Q1 2025, prestige house prices were 0 6% below a quarter ago but were 1 2% higher over the past year In the same quarter, apartment prices grew by 1 5% and by 6 0% in the past year
Change in Prestige Prices Gold Coast Prestige
Looking ahead, McGrath Research anticipates prestige residential price growth to be more sustainable for established homes over the next two years given the subdued sales activity on the Gold Coast Prestige price growth is forecast at 2% at the end of 2025, followed by a similar 2% rise in 2026
Research Prestige Prices
Source:
Forecast for Prestige Prices
Research Prestige Price Outlook +2%
Source:
Source:
Prestige gross rental yields on the Gold Coast rose 2 bps in the Q1 2025 quarter to be 4 37%, while this was 8 bps higher than a year ago. Apartment yields (4.83%) consistently outperform house yields (3 80%) across most markets
Prestige house yields fell 1 bp in Q1 2025 and decreased by 10 bps over the past year, while prestige apartment yields were up 4 bps in this past quarter and 22 bps higher from a year ago
Change in Gross Rental Yield Gold Coast Prestige
1.0%
Changes in rental vacancy can have a significant impact on the residential property market, influencing both rental prices and property values Gold Coast residential rental vacancy was recorded at 1.0% in Q1 2025, similar to the previous quarter and a year ago Generally, 3% vacancy is considered a balanced market between rental supply and demand. Below this benchmark is considered to be an undersupplied pool of rental homes
Change in Residential Rental Vacancy
Coast
Source: McGrath Research, REIQ
Source: McGrath Research
Prestige Rents +1%
Gold Coast prestige property rents rose by 5 6% in the year ending March 2025, with a rise of 0.6% recorded in the most recent quarter Looking back at rental growth over the five years from Q1 2020, prestige apartments (76 3%) outpaced prestige houses (63.2%). In Q1 2025, prestige house rents were 1 0% below a quarter ago, and were 0 3% lower over the past year In the same quarter, apartment rents rose by 1 8% after rising 10 8% in the past year
Change in Prestige Rents Gold Coast Prestige
Source: McGrath Research
Prestige Rental Outlook +5%
Forecast for Prestige Rents Gold Coast Prestige
With only a handful of recent new luxury apartments built, the Gold Coast continues to offer a limited supply of prestige rental homes, compounded by the slow pace of new housing development. McGrath Research forecast there will remain pressure on rents of 5% at the end of 2025, with a further 4% rental growth likely in 2026
Source: McGrath Research
Gold Coast Prestige, Q1/25
Source: McGrath Research
Prestige Property
The most desirable and most expensive property in a given location, generally defined as the top 5% of each market, by value
Prestige Sales
Gold Coast prestige sale transactions hold a threshold of A$3 million
Super-Prestige Sales
Gold Coast super-prestige sale transactions hold a threshold of A$5 million
Wealthy Population
A high-net-worth individual (HNWI) with a net worth of at least US$10 million
Michelle Ciesielski
Head of Residential Research, McGrath Research
michelleciesielski@mcgrath com au +61 414 694 220
www.mcgrath.com.au