Supporting economic momentum amid global uncertainty, recent rate cuts have prompted most lenders to adjust mortgage rates, with further reductions widely expected for the coming year
Much like the stock market, Brisbane’s prestige property market saw a subdued start to the year in terms of sales volume, though activity is expected to lift as lending conditions become more favourable
Winter/25
Brisbane Prestige Residential
Prestige apartments have led price growth for Brisbane, but overall, residential prices have moderated and over the coming year will likely continue this way towards a more sustainable pace
With limited availability at the top end of the Brisbane market, prestige rental prices remain on an upward trend, although growth is expected to become more maintainable moving forward
The Economy Key Drivers
Interest Rate
3.85%
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the interest rate target 25 bps to 3 85% in May 2025 Many banks followed this direction and adjusted their mortgage lending rates accordingly. Interest rates significantly influence the cost of borrowing money, which in turn affects the willingness and ability to apply for a home loan. The RBA forecasts the target could be 3 40% by the end of 2025, and 3 20% in 2026 When interest rates are lowered, borrowing becomes cheaper, which can stimulate demand for residential property and drive economic growth
Economic Growth 1.3%
Stock Market Return
-0.7%
There have been many instances of strong stock market performance being a leading indicator for an upward momentum in prestige residential price growth Australia’s stock market performance on the S&P/ASX 200 eased in the first quarter with -3 9% growth, to calculate a total annual change of -0 7% in the year ending March 2025 This comes after annual change of -5.5% in 2022, then solid annual growth of 7 8% in 2023 and 7 5% in 2024
Economic growth remains a key driver given it can increase demand across property markets Australia recorded economic growth at 1 3% in 2024, following stronger performance of 3.1% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. Looking forward, the RBA forecasts economic growth to lift to 2 1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. Ideally, sustainable economic growth is considered to be around 2% to 3% When it comes to new private business investment in Australia, there was 0 3% growth in 2024, following significant growth of 6.1% in 2022 and 8 8% in 2023 In 2025, business investment is forecast to rise by 0.6% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.
Wealthy Population Growth
3.9%
The wealthy population across Australia continues to increase, despite the extended period of global economic instability and geopolitical shocks. The drivers of wealth creation and maintaining this wealth have been real estate and the solid underlying performance of the stock market Australasia’s wealthy population grew by 3 9% in 2024, to 49,367 people with net wealth of more than US$10 million This population is forecast to grow by a further 5.3% by the end of 2028 (or an average 1 3% per year) according to the Knight Frank Wealth Sizing Model
Source: McGrath Research, Knight Frank Research, RBA
Prestige Residential Sales Update
Prestige Sales
Brisbane prestige residential sale transactions above $3 million tallied to 101 in the first quarter of 2025, a downward movement of 42% from the previous quarter This sudden pause was influenced by market hesitation with a federal election looming and many anticipating a further reduction in interest rates Over the past year, the total number of prestige sales was 28% higher, reaching 630 sales
Total Number of Prestige Sales ($3m+)
Brisbane Prestige
Source: McGrath Research
Super-Prestige Sales
The share of super-prestige sales (above $5 million) was recorded at 18%, after analysing the total number of prestige sales (above $3 million) across Brisbane in the year ending March 2025 This was lower than one year ago when the proportion was 20%, but remains above the 21% share recorded five years ago. Over the past year, Brisbane’s super-prestige sales volume rose by 13% and grown by 640% over the past five years
18%
Share of Super-Prestige Sales ($5m+), by Number
Brisbane Prestige
Source: McGrath Research
Source: McGrath Research
Prestige Residential Sales Update
Duration 75 days
Prestige homes across Brisbane took an average 75 days on market - from the time they were listed to the day they went under contract - in the March 2025 quarter This duration was 54 days the quarter before and 74 days one year ago A low number of days on market mean homes are selling fast with more desirable properties, while a high number of days suggests a slower market Houses averaged 83 days to sell in Q1 2025, which was 25 days longer than in Q4 2024 and 3 days more than in Q1 2024. Apartments took an average 37 days to sell, being 3 days longer than the previous quarter but 10 days less than a year ago
Average Days on the Market
Source: McGrath Research
New Listings
Newly advertised property listings in Brisbane were 10 9% lower in the month of March 2025 than the equivalent period last year. This trended slightly above the 10.0% average for the combined capitals of Australia
Brisbane’s total number of listings in the month of March 2025 were 3 2% above the equivalent period last year By comparison, total listings were an average 8.5% higher across the combined capitals of Australia
Source: McGrath Research, CoreLogic
Source: McGrath Research
Prestige Residential Prices Update
Property price changes can benchmark market performance and can help identify emerging trends Brisbane prestige property prices grew by 2 8% in the year ending March 2025, with 0.1% recorded in the most recent quarter. Looking back at price growth over the five years from Q1 2020, prestige apartments (26 4%) outpaced prestige houses (20 3%) In Q1 2025, prestige house prices were 0.2% below a quarter ago and were 2 1% lower over the past year In the same quarter, apartment prices rose by 1 9% after rising 7 1% in the past year
Change in Prestige Prices
Brisbane Prestige
Source: McGrath Research
Brisbane prestige prices are forecast by McGrath Research to increase by a sustainable 2% by the end of 2025, followed by a similar 2% rise in 2026 These projections reflect ongoing demand from limited new housing construction and lowered interest rates which are designed to further stimulate the economy and the rising confidence of interstate homebuyers
Forecast for Prestige Prices
Brisbane Prestige
Source: McGrath Research Prestige Price Outlook
Source: McGrath Research
Prestige Residential Rents Update
Prestige Yield +1 bp
Brisbane prestige gross rental yields rose 1 bp in the Q1 2025 quarter to be 2 99%, while this was 4 bps lower than a year ago. House yields (3.01%) performed closely to apartment yields (2 88%) across most markets Prestige house yields rose 2 bps in Q1 2025 but decreased by 4 bps over the past year, while prestige apartment yields were down 3 bps in this past quarter but similar to a year ago
Change in Gross Rental Yield
Brisbane Prestige
Rental vacancy can have a significant impact on the residential property market, influencing both rental prices and property values Brisbane residential rental vacancy was recorded at 0.9% in Q1 2025, falling 20 bps in the quarter but overall, 6 bps lower over the past year Generally, 3% vacancy is considered a balanced market between rental supply and demand. Below this benchmark is considered to be an undersupplied pool of rental homes
Change in Residential Rental Vacancy
Brisbane
Source: McGrath Research, REIQ
Source: McGrath Research
Source: McGrath Research
Prestige Residential Rents Update
Prestige Rents 0.4%
Brisbane prestige property rents rose by 1 0% in the year ending March 2025, with a rise of 0.4% recorded in the most recent quarter Looking back at rental growth over the five years from Q1 2020, prestige apartments (48 5%) outpaced prestige houses (46.6%). In Q1 2025, prestige house rents were 0 3% above a quarter ago, but were 0 2% lower over the past year In the same quarter, apartment rents rose by 0 8% after rising 6 7% in the past year
Change in Prestige Rents
Brisbane Prestige
Source: McGrath Research
Prestige Rental Outlook +3%
While Brisbane continues to experience the tight residential rental supply of prestige homes and delayed new housing completions, McGrath Research forecast upward pressure on rents of 3% at the end of 2025, with a further 3% rental growth likely in 2026
Forecast for Prestige Rents
Brisbane Prestige
Source: McGrath Research
Source: McGrath Research
Definitions
Prestige Property
The most desirable and most expensive property in a given location, generally defined as the top 5% of each market, by value
Prestige Sales
Brisbane prestige sale transactions hold a threshold of A$3 million
Super-Prestige Sales
Brisbane super-prestige sale transactions hold a threshold of A$5 million
Wealthy Population
A high-net-worth individual (HNWI) with a net worth of at least US$10 million
