Universidade Católica Portuguesa Instituto de Estudos Políticos
“As a professor, I tended to think of history as run by impersonal forces. But when I see it in practice, you see the difference personalities make.” Walter Isaacson, Kissinger (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992, p. 13.)
Professor Miguel Monjardino Mariana Correia da Fonseca Rodrigues, 104515101 MA in Governance, Leadership and Democracy Studies
April 2017
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Index
Introduction
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I. Importance of Individuals vs Impersonal forces
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II. Bismark and Erdogan
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Conclusion
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Bibliography
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Introduction
“As a professor, I tended to think of history as run by impersonal forces. But when you see it in practice, you see the difference personalities make.”1
Henry Kissinger who served as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor in the presidential administrations of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford and was a key fundamental political player in the international context in many wars during his career, stated this in January 1974 during an interview with journalists after his first Middle East Shuttle. Now, after more than 50 years, how have specific leaders influenced the international relations dynamics? Are those leaders more important to study rather than the history itself? Do they have an important impact at the present moment? This essay will follow the lines of Daniel L.Byman and Kenneth M.Pollack’s in “Let Us Now Praise Great Men”, in which the authors presented the importance of studying individuals in international relations. In that sense, this essay focuses on this theory and tries to explain how much political leaders are important, still in the present day. For this reason, the first chapter explains the theories that the authors advocate and the ones that scholars tend to defend about “the impersonal forces”. Subsequently, in order to provide a historical example, Chapter II will focus on the impact of Otto von Bismarck in German and European affairs. Also, to reinforce the notion that it is still important to study influential leaders in the present moment, in the same chapter the impact of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey will be analyzed, specially taking into account his recent victory in the constitutional referendum of 16 April 2017. Finally, a brief conclusion with my own point of view regarding the topic of this essay will be put forward.
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Walter Isaacson. Kissinger, A Biography. Simon & Schuster paperbacks. New York. 2005. P.20.
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I. The Importance of the individuals vs Impersonal Forces Mary Kaldor, in an article entitled “In defense of New Wars” 2 , presented the importance of understanding how the very concept of war had changed, which necessarily gave way to a new logic and research strategy. These “New Wars” are related with the globalization era in which war changed due to the increase of new communications technologies, migration, and erosion of political ideologies. In this new state of affairs, where intrastate wars prevail, the main actors are a combination of networks of State and nonState actors like what we are watching nowadays in the Middle-East. Therefore, the study of Leadership became crucial to understand the decisive position that Leaders can have in this new international dynamics. It is also true that nowadays we are watching new phenomena such as the spread of populism across Europe, the growth of right-wing parties, Donald Trump’s American era, the tense relationship between North Korea and the United States, all the while millions of refugees arrive in Europe as a consequence of failed states. So an interesting question arises – can individuals unilaterally influence international dynamics? Or are they subject to grander movements? That is the reason why understanding International Relations is so important. Byman and Pollack’s article explains the contrast in the field of International Relations between those who believe that individuals do not matter to international relations and those who, contrarily, agree that individuals play an essential role in international relations dynamics. The authors stand with the latter. They begin by presenting how just a single man can have that power, by pointing out that “Frederick's triumph in the Seven Years' War was essential to Prussia's eventual unification of Germany and all that followed from it. Conceiving of European history today without this victory is impossible”3 The authors also support this argument by claiming that one cannot study WWII history without studying Adolf Hitler or Winston Churchill. In addition, just as Kissinger said, “Policy is rooted in personality”4, the authors provide a strong overview of the strongest personalities that shaped history. They focus on their essay Germany under Hitler, the contrasting impact of Chancellor Otto Von Bismarck and Kaiser Wilhelm II on European politics, France under Napoleon Bonapart, and last not least, a comparison of Iraq under Saddam Hussein and Syria under Hafiz Al-Asad. These historic leaders are an example of how individuals matter to shape history itself. The 2
Mary Kaldor. In Defence of New Wars. Stability: International Journal of Security and Development. 2013. Available at: http://doi.org/10.5334/sta.at 3 Daniel L.Byman and Kenneth M.Pollack. Let us now praise Great Men. Bringing the Statesman back In. International Security, Vol.25, No.4. 2011. pp.107-146 4 Walter Isaacson. Kissinger: A Biography. Simon & Schuster Paperbacks. New York. 2005.p.
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authors also quoted scholars who distinguished “status quo” states and “revisionist” States. The “status quo” states are those “nations content with the state of affairs as they are”. And on the other hand, the “revisionist” States are those who “want more territory, influence, prestige or other objectives that are not always directly related with their security. They may go to war or otherwise disrupt the international system even when they are secure.” 5 The other theory is about that scholars, presented in “Let us Praise Great Man”, who reject the role of personalities in the international relations dynamics. These political scientists, who believe that individuals do not matter to international relations, focus only on impersonal forces as the causes of international events. The first rubric “contend[s] that individuals ultimately do not matter, or at least they count for little in the major events that shape international politics. Instead they argue that the roar of the anarchic system, domestic politics and institutional dynamics drop out the small voices of individual leaders”6. The second rubric, as the authors presented in their essay, focuses on the individualistic point of view in which they believe that individuals matter but just in a period of time and they do not influence things on a grand scale. Last, the third rubric is about the rejection by some international relations theorists in studying individuals. This theory includes those who believe that circumstances shape the political decisions and the circumstances are, therefore, more important to study than the political leaders themselves. In this point of view, circumstances (and not individuals), shape political decisions.
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Daniel L.Byman and Kenneth M.Pollack. Let us now praise Great Men. Bringing the Statesman back In. International Security, Vol.25, No.4. 2011. p.144 6 Daniel L.Byman and Kenneth M.Pollack. Let us now praise Great Men. Bringing the Statesman back In. International Security, Vol.25, No.4. 2011. p. 108
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II. Bismarck and Erdogan Taking into account the theories presented in the chapter before, it seems reasonable that the study of leaders in International Relations is important, both in the past and in the present. During the sec XIX, Prussia’s empowerment and consequent threat to other European nations was one of the main causes of World War I, which influenced how Germany is still perceived nowadays. Otto Von Bismarck had a fundamental role in the unification of Germany mainly due to the fact he focused on all the spheres that could affect the Prussian monarchy. Bismarck is a great example of how a fantastic leader, with great understanding of European dynamics, solid oratory which was a way of manipulating public opinion,7 and a commitment to define long-term strategies were determinant for him to be successful. After the Prussian Victory, Prussia became the main power in Germany. Bismarck was recognized as a great strategist and in 1871 he was able to unify Germany through the integration of the southern states into the North German Confederations. This was accomplished due to the fact that he established alliances with other powerful nations and ensured the economic development of both regions. Furthermore, his personality and leadership skills shaped Europe especially considering how he was able to understand the other European counterparts. As Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack put it “A brilliant diplomatic tactician, Bismarck forged a complex series of alliances to strengthen Germany’s position as a status quo power and preserve the peace in Europe”8. To sustain this argument, it is also important to prove that present political leaders matter as much as in the past. Actually, that globalization has changed the political and international relations dynamics, studying political leaders may matter more than before due to their potential reach. Mark Lowen, Zeynep Erdim and Göktay Koraltan from the BBC explained in detail Turkey’s current political situation in a report called “How much has Turkey already changed, molded by the vision of one man?”9. This a pertinent question to assert the argument that individuals matter. In this reportage, 16 July 2016 coup attempt is examined, which gave rise to Erdogan’s empowerment. The president, who had already been prime minister for eleven years, is in power since 2014 as President. During that time, the country has changed by far. This essay was written in the context of the referendum vote 7
Jones, M. Strategy as Character : Bismark and the Prusso-German question, 1862-18782011. The Shaping of Grand Strategy. New York: Cambridge University Press. p.82 8 Daniel L.Byman and Kenneth M.Pollack. Let us now praise Great Men. Bringing the Statesman back In. International Security, Vol.25, No.4. 2011. pp.121 9 Mark Lowen, Zeynep Erdim and Goktay Koraltan. “How much has Turkey already changed, molded by the vision of one man?”BBC. 13 April 2017. Available at:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/Erdogans_Turkey
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of 16 of April of 2017, which gave power to Erdogan since he effectively merged the position of the head of government and state, potential ability to enact laws by dismissing parliament and limited the Parliament’s power. This is a turning point for Turkey, as it is starting to resemble an authoritarian system more and more. In this article from BBC, it is exemplified the fact that a university in Rize, his hometown, is named when he is still alive, exemplifies his power in the country. The totality of the population in Rize supports Erdogan. It is relevant to pay attention to his leadership charisma in which the level of devotion by the population is huge. Erdogan has urged women to have more children and in a recent article from “The Guardian”, “Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tells women’s association that ‘rejecting motherhood means giving up on humanity’” 10 . Another important factor is that, according to Freedom House,
Turkey is characterized as having “not free” media.11 This is an example of how the country, which is significantly important geopolitically speaking, is changing and how important it is to pay attention to when Erdogan is demanding more power. It can be argued that the EUTurkey deal regarding the millions of refugees that are living in Turkey only granted more power to Erdogan. The fact the European Union is facing hard years with the growth of populist ideologies, terrorist attacks, and the lack of unity about the refugees and migrants, gives a bigger leverage for Erdogan to play in the European Union politics. Back to the BBC’s report, Erdogan declared that “there is no difference between a terrorist holding a gun or a bomb and those who use their pen and position to serve their aims”12. This type of mindset provides a justification for Erdogan to prosecute all journalists that are against him. This referendum represents another turning point in how countries are to deal with Turkey, and consequently, in International Relations, and this was possible because of just one man rather than general circumstances. That is the reason why individuals matter and why it is important to understand them. Ultimately, “Turkey matters. It remains a vital Western ally in the region, NATO’s eastern flank and a big trading partner. It is a crucial player in attempts to bring peace to Syria and the war against so-called Islamic State”13. Hence, Erdogan is an essential political leader regarding the situation of the refugees with and in Europe, which can be used as a major tool of manipulation, giving him a great power.
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Turkish president says childless women are 'deficient, incomplete'. The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/06/turkish-president-erdogan-childless-women-deficient-incomplete 11 Freedom House. Turkey 2017. Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/country/turkey 12 Mark Lowen, Zeynep Erdim and Goktay Koraltan. “How much has Turkey already changed, molded by the vision of one man?”BBC. 13 April 2017. Available at:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/Erdogans_Turkey 13 Mark Lowen, Zeynep Erdim and Goktay Koraltan. “How much has Turkey already changed, molded by the vision of one man?”BBC. 13 April 2017. Available at:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/Erdogans_Turkey
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As demonstrated, it is essential to study political leaders, even if it is Bimarck in 1876 or Erdogan in 2017. As proven in both examples, the circumstances also shaped the international dynamics but political leaders are those who shape it the most. Erdogan won the referendum in 2017 and this marks a new beginning for Turkey and a setback in Democracy. Also, it is important to note that the main cities of Turkey (Instabul, Ankara, and Izmir) are the ones that are most open to Europe and are more advanced, as they represent the center of economic and political life, are the ones where the majority of people voted “No” in the referendum. This is to show how much power Erdogan has, especially since there are multiple reports that claim Erdogan manipulated the campaign and people who voted for “Yes” just want safety. In the last months, Turkey has been in a “State of Emergency”. Some people who voted “Yes” believed that this could increase the security in the country. Nevertheless, Erdogan has to be seen as an important leader, not only because of the dynamics in his own country, but also in Europe. With this referendum and his increase of power, he represents a fundamental leader to be studied, especially regarding the millions of refugees living in his country. Turkey has changed again for a more conservative and religious country which impacts the EU-Turkey relations.
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Conclusion Considering the main bibliographic source for this essay, “Let us Now Praise Great Menâ€?, which was demonstrated in the chapters before, I agree with the theory of the authors. Not only does it present clear reasons in favor of studying individuals but it also provides a great argument for why we should study the impact of individuals in International Relations. Circumstances, influence the decisions of political leaders as they pressure individuals to act faster there is no pressure. However, the different leading personalities are the ones who decide the way things go. Bismarck, a past exceptional political leader, and Erdogan, a present controversial leader, are proof of how their decisions influenced the way European history was made and how it is shaping the international dynamics nowadays. Despite these two political leaders, in the complex times that we are living it is also possible to talk about other cases. For instance, Viktor OrbĂĄn in Hungary, who is recently trying to close one of the best liberal Universities of Budapest (CEU), sparked large manifestations in the streets of Budapest. He also had a closed policy regarding refugees which is not in accordance with the European rules. Another important example is President Donald Trump. Despite the fact that it is still soon to talk about his impact, we can see that his political decisions have enormous international impact. Unlike Barack Obama, regarding the use of chemical weapons, his decision to attack the Government of Bashar Al-Assad created a hostile environment between the United States and Russia. Circumstances create pressure, but leaders are who decide the way to go and to study them is a fundamental key to understand not only international relations, but also in which direction countries will normally follow.
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Bibliography Freedom House. Turkey 2017. Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/country/turkey Isaacson, Walter. Kissinger: A Biography. Simon & Schuster paperbacks. New York.2005 Jones, M. Strategy as Character : Bismark and the Prusso-German question, 1862-18782011. The Shaping of Grand Strategy. New York: Cambridge University Press. Kaldor, Mary. In Defence of New Wars: Stability. International Journal of Security and Development. 2013 L.Byman, Daniel and Kenneth M.Pollack. Let us now praise Great Men. Bringing the Statesman back In. International Security, Vol.25, No.4. 2011 Lowen, Mark and , Zeynep Erdim and Goktay Koraltan. “How much has Turkey already changed, molded by the vision of one man?�BBC. 13 April 2017. Available at:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idtsh/Erdogans_Turkey Murray. W. Introduction. In W.M.al., The Shaping of Grand Strategy. New York Cambridge University Press. 2011.
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