MAC'13 Background Paper

The 12th Model American Congress Year 2013 Challenges faced...Future embraced

MAC'13 Congressional Research Service Report (CRS)

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The 12th Model of American Congress, Cairo university April 19, 2013

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The 12th Model of American Congress, Cairo university April 19, 2013

Table of Contents  Preamble……………………………………………………………………………………………….………..4  Rules of Procedures…………………..…………………………………………………………………….6  Committee on Foreign Relations……………………………………………………………….…..16 First topic outline (Iran)…………………………………………………………………………………19 Second topic outline (Burma)………………………………………………………………………..21  Committee on Finance……………………………………………………………..……………………77 First topic outline (Nuclear Energy)...................................................................80 Second topic outline (European Union Free Trade Agreement).......................81  Committee on Judiciary……………………………………………………………………………….120 First topic outline (Teaching creationism VS evolution)..................................124 Second topic outline (Citizenship by birth)......................................................125 Third topic outline (Stem Cell Research).........................................................126  Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental affairs........................180 First topic outline(Illegal Immigration & Border Security)...............................183 second topic outline (Lobbying & Disclosure).................................................184 Third topic outline (China)...............................................................................185  Committee on Near East South Asian Affairs……………………………………………….238

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The 12th Model of American Congress, Cairo university April 19, 2013

Preamble

Twelve years ago, The Model of American Congress (MAC) was Initiated as one of the Pioneer Student activities simulating a Complete legislative process; that's of the United states senate.

Years after years, Values were being added to the Model through the Egyptian youth working in it, generating success after success. Until this year, we started running the 12th year in MAC bearing in our minds that a great value should be added to the previous ones, in order to Complete the Chain of success of our Model.

MAC is working on immersing the Egyptian students in the process of legislation in the senate, to learn by practice, and get to know, how legislations are being issued, and how the Political kitchen looks like in one of the most important legislative branches nowadays. For the Delegates to be ready for the simulation part, they study intensively a variety of different hot topics which add to their knowledge and widen their understanding for the controversial issues around them in the world. Adding to the Political and legislative awareness, a delegate in MAC encounters a great development of her\his soft skills, along the sessions and most importantly in the conference; Where s\he lives a life of a real senator fighting for her\his stance.

MAC's main goal will always be the enhancement of the Egyptian students; giving them knowledge, and help them to discover the potentials lies inside them. Our ultimate success is when those potentials brought up, adding to the Egyptian community, and strengthening the Egyptian society.

For this value to be transmitted to the delegates, a great work is exerted by a team of dedicated workers; Who themselves are learning and simulating how to be part of an Institution, how to work, co-operate, face difficulties, live progress, and the most important thing is how to succeed together.

A team of dedicated secretariats in the five academic committees of MAC, who worked hard on this material between your hands, worked hard through the sessions to transfer its content to their delegates smoothly, and will be working in the conference to make sure that the congressional sessions will be conducted with ultimate efficiency. Another team of Organizing committees was working hard to carry out the Organizational part and trying to build the best environment, for the value to be transferred to the delegates smoothly.

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The 12th Model of American Congress, Cairo university April 19, 2013

This Book between your hands, represents the collective work & effort of the Model's team throughout the year.

For that, this Book is dedicated to those great people, to the people who were in their place since the initiation of the model, and for the coming generations of MAC who will add more values to what already exists. Also, dedicated to all Egyptians who added value to this country, who dreamed for it; whether they are still alive working for their dreams, or died while seeking it.

MAC'13 High-board,

President: Mariam Mohamed Ragaei

President Pro-Tempore: Mahmoud Nabil Hassan

Head of the Organizing Committee: Marwa Essam Fawaz

Deputy-Head of the Organizing Committee: Marwa Nabil El-sharony

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The 12th Model of American Congress, Cairo university April 19, 2013

Model American Congress’12 Rules of Procedures

Section I: Parliamentary Authority

-These rules shall be the official rules of the Model American Congress (MAC), - MAC Rules of order Revised, may be used for purposes of definition, but in cases of conflict, these by-laws shall take precedence, - No one may amend these by-laws except the members of the committee.

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The 12th Model of American Congress, Cairo university April 19, 2013

Section II: Senate members and officers

First, the duties of the chairman/lady of each committee shall be: - To declare the opening and closing of each committee meeting, - To recognize all the speakers, - To decide all points of order, - To put questions to a vote and announce the results, - To preserve order and decorum and to clear the floor of any disorderly persons.

Second, the duties of the Vice-Chair shall be: - To chair the committee during the chairman/lady absence or when the latter yields the floor to, - To conduct the Roll call in the beginning of each session, - To assist in counting of the votes, - To make sure that there is a quorum present at all times during which business is being transacted.

Third, the duties of the Ranking Member shall be: - To advise the Chairman/lady in the decision of any parliamentary questions, - To Direct the Academic flow of the debate, - To act as source of all academic materials that needed by the senators during the congressional meetings.

- To make sure that the committee bills are issued according to all technical and legal specifications.

- To read all bills.

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The 12th Model of American Congress, Cairo university April 19, 2013

Fourth, the duties of the Party Consultant shall be: - To arrange each and every party factions and wings, - To work on the formulation of the party statement, - To assist the Ranking Member in providing the Academic materials, - To act as source of party and senators stances.

- To read all amendments.

Fifth, the duties of the Senators shall be: - To Work on the discussed committee topics, as well as issuing a bill on the discussed topics to be taken to the senate floor, - To assist the Chairman/lady in maintaining order and decorum.

Sixth, the duties of the Lobbyists shall be: - To provide the senators with the academic materials and any technical or legal support, - To work on the discussed committee topics, - To lobby for or against the committee bills in the other committees and in the floor, - To assist the Chairman/lady in maintaining order and decorum.

NOTE: the Chairman/lady may vote when it is necessary to break a tie, to complete a 2/3 vote, to make a quorum, or in any case where his/her vote would change the results, at which time he may vote if he/she chooses.

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The 12th Model of American Congress, Cairo university April 19, 2013

Section III: Standing Committees

- The committee Chairman/lady shall assign the senators prior to the opening of the Model American Congress Conference, - There shall be one Chairman/lady and 20 senators for each committee, - The Committee on the Rules shall consist of the Model American Congress President, President Pro-tempore and the Chairmen/ladies of the 5 Committees. Other senators may be arbitrarily admitted.

Section IV: Agenda and Order of Business

- The Agenda of the Senate Floor and each of the standing committees shall be drawn up in advance of the opening of the respective sessions.

- The Vice-chair shall see that each member of the chamber has received a copy of the agenda.

- Bills not on the agenda may only be introduced by a motion to suspend the rules.

- Bills passed in the committee should be forwarded to the Committee on Rules, Where they will be placed on the agenda of the Senate Floor.

- In Committee, the sponsor of the bill may make any changes on his/her bill by arranging them with the Ranking Member before the markup session.

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The 12th Model of American Congress, Cairo university April 19, 2013

Section V: Rules of Order

The following are some motions, which shall be used in Senate. If two motions are on the floor simultaneously, the higher numbered one shall take precedence.

POINT OF PERSONAL PRIVLEGE A delegate may rise to a point of privilege if there is a question concerning the rights of a member or the entire assembly. It can call for the reading of pertinent Bill, the opening of a window … etc. "Point of personal privilege" Note: Only the point of personal privilege can be raised while a senator has a floor.

POINT OF ORDER If a breach of parliamentary procedure occurs, a senator may bring it to the attention of the chair. The punishment of the offender shall be at the discretion of the chair, as well it can be used to raise a motion for a caucus, mark up session, congressional hearings, recess\adjourn....etc, and in that case it always begins with “I move that….”. "I'd like to raise a motion to move to a… "Or “I appeal the chair’s decision" or “I move we postpone this meeting until".…

ACCLAMATION A bill may be passed by acclamation only before debate has begun. The acclamation preserves the preliminary bill before amendments are passed, and it requires a simple majority vote. "I'd like to move to an acclamation voting procedure on the presented bill".

TO DIVIDE A MOTION If a delegate calls for a division of a motion, it means he/she wants the bill to be voted on separately from its amendments. 2/3 majority is required to divide a motion, it can be raised though in case we have an acclamation motion pre-discussing the bill.

"I call for the division of the committee" (And its asked for a vote by actual count to verify a voice vote for the bill without amendments)

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Note: In case the division of motion passes (2\3 majority) it cancels any acclamation motion may be done pre-discussing the bill (simple majority).

SUSPEND THE RULES This motion suspends the rules of the chamber involved for a definite purpose, for a specified time. It requires a 2/3 vote to pass. “I move we suspend the rules and consider the chairs authority" (Commonly used in MAC's conference for the Lobbyists to be recognized by the Chair to talk)

TO RECESS/ADJOURN A senator may, at his/her discretion call for a recess/adjourn of any meeting. It requires a majority vote to pass. “ I move that we recess until…. ” or “I move that we adjourn” Note: -To adjourn to the next day\or next year.

-To recess for a pre-specified period of time for Coffee\Lunch break.

SECTION VI: Voting

- All voting on the main motion shall consist of a show of hands of the ayes and nays but this is done only if there is a marked uncertainty as to the result of the vote. No division shall be allowed if any new motion has been made since the vote has been taken.

- The majority vote as well as the 2/3 vote shall consist of the number of senators present and voting.

- All motions and points shall be out of order once the vote has begun.

-Abstentions shall not be counted where its only allowed in case of the amendments and the bill voting.

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- All motions require a 2/3 majority to pass except the recess, adjourn & acclamation both requires a simple majority to pass.

- In case of having a miss-vote a re-voting procedure is taken by the chair, by which a voice vote for the motion is taken as in the case of the divided motion.

- Abstentions aren't allowed in case of a motion vote

SECTION VII: Debate Flow

The Congressional Committee meetings:

<chairman/lady> the Committee will come to order. We are meeting today to consider our congressional agenda the "….", the "….", and the "…." <Opening statements by chairman and RM>

<chairman/lady> "thanks to the gentleman or the gentle lady" pointing to the ranking member, a quorum(10) being present, the committee will now proceed the consideration of the declared agenda for that congressional meeting, and now the floor will be yield to the vice-chair to have the roll call, senators attending should reply as present <Chairman/lady> the honorable senator…of….. Is recognized for two minutes <chairman/lady>other members may submit opening statements comments for the record <chairman/lady>honorable senators wishing to speak should raise their placards high and keep them high…. <Chairman/lady> the honorable senator…of….. is recognized for two minutes <chairman/lady> "thanks to the gentleman or the gentle lady" and so on <Senator> point of order <chairman/lady> honorable….of……what's your point <senator>I'll move that we go to a hearing session for…minutes 12

The 12th Model of American Congress, Cairo university April 19, 2013

<chairman/lady> honorable senator that’s in order, the question is on agreeing to the motion offered by the gentleman. to…. Those in favor say "aye" <pause> those opposed say "no" <pause> (if only no or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no while in case of nays and ayes are heard then a raising hands motion takes place) <chairman/lady> In the opinion of the chair, the ayes [nays] have it and the motion is [is not] agreed to

The Mark up Session:

<chairman/lady> the Committee will come to order. We are meeting today to consider S.111 the"…..bill title…..", a bill to….. <Clarifying statement by the ranking member>

<chairman/lady>A quorum (10) being present, the committee will now proceed the consideration of S111 the "…..bill title….", I'll now call up the S111. The ranking member will report the bill. <RM begins to read the bill>

<Chairman/lady> (interrupt reading) the bill was circulated in advance. Without objection, the first reading of the bill is dispensed with. <if objection is heard, a senator or the RM should raise "move to dispense with the reading>

<chairman/lady> Are there any amendments to the present bill? <if any member called ayes> <chairman/lady> now the floor will be opened for 10 minutes for having amendments, the party consultant will record the amendments.

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<chairman/lady> the time for recording S111 amendments has elapsed, now the floor will be yield to the honorable party consultant to read the first ammendment. <After finishing reading the amendment if the member raised "reserve a point of order" at this time then he\she would be recognized for 1 minute> <chairman/lady> the gentleman/lady is recognized for 1minute in the support of the amendment <Member explains the amendment> <chairman/lady> the time of the gentleman/lady has expired, since there is no further discussion, the question is on agreeing to the amendment offered by the gentleman/lady.

Those in favor say "aye"<pause>, those opposed say "nay" <pause> (if only nays or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no while in case of nays and ayes are heard then a raising hands motion takes place) <chairman/lady> In the opinion of the chair, the ayes [nays] have it and the amendment is [is not] agreed to.

And so on the amendments are discussed & voted to………… <chairman/lady> hearing no further amendments, the question now occurs on the adoption of the bill as amended. All those in favor say "aye"<pause> all those opposed say "nay"<pause> In the opinion of the chair, the Ayes have it and adoption of the bill as amended is agreed to. (if only nays or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no while in case of nays and ayes are heard then a voice recorded voting takes place) <Chairman/lady> I now move the bill as amended be forwarded favorably to the senate floor.

All those in favor say "aye" <pause> all those opposed say "nay" <pause> in the opinion of the chair, the Ayes have it and the motion is agreed to. <Possible request for a voice recorded vote> <Chairman> without objection, the motion is to reconsider is laid on the table, and staff is authorized to make any technical and conforming changes.

There being no further business, without objection, the committee stands adjourned.

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SECTION VIII: The Floor

- The committee on rules will set the floor agenda a day before the floor - The floor of MAC will involve the 100 senator as speakers, while the secretariats and the lobbyists are not recognized. However, the lobbyists conduct their task informally.

- The bills pass throughout the floor to the white house with a simple majority of 50+1 - All the committee rules & motions are in order in addition to putting the object to consideration.

OBJECT TO CONSIDERATION This motion, if passed, has the effect of canceling the effect of the bill. It is used only if the body feels that the bill being discussed is frivolous, irrelevant, not within the body’s jurisdiction, or clearly unconstitutional. It must be done before debate on the bill has begun. It requires a 2/3 vote to pass “I object to consideration of this question, having…. "

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Prepared by: Chairlady: Maha Sameh

Vice-chairman: Ahmed Galal

Ranking Member: Nada Adel

Party Consultant: Eman Aboul Saad 16

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No foreign policy - no matter how ingenious - has any chance of success if it is born in the minds of a few and carried in the hearts of none”.

Henry A. Kissinger “Domestic policy can only defeat us; foreign policy can kill us”.

John Kennedy

This is dedicated to: Our ex- MAC-ians, High board, fellow Secretariats of MAC’13, delegates of CFR’13 and all the coming generations of MAC. A special dedication goes to the family of MAC’11 & MAC’12.

With best regards CFR’13 Secretariats Team

About the Committee:

History: Committee on Foreign relations is considered as one of the most important committees in the U.S senate. The committee was established in 1816 as one of the original ten standing committees and since then it served as an influential instrument in shaping the U.S foreign policy, especially in matters of war, peace and international relations. Furthermore it played a major role in the purchase of Alaska in 1867 as well as the establishment of the United Nations in 1945.

Jurisdiction: Committee on Foreign relations has jurisdiction over broad range of issues as;     

Diplomatic Service.

Foreign economic, military, technical and humanitarian assistance.

International aspects of Nuclear energy including nuclear transfer policy.

Intervention abroad and declarations of war.

Treaties and executive agreements………………..etc 17

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Subcommittees: 1. Subcommittee on African affairs.

2. Subcommittee on East Asian and Specific Affairs.

3. Subcommittee on European Affairs.

4. Subcommittee on international development and foreign assistance, economic affairs and international environmental protection.

5. Subcommittee on international operations and organizations, human rights, democracy and global women's issues.

6. Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian affairs.

7. Subcommittee on Western hemisphere, peace corps and global narcotics affairs.

Chairmanship:

Chairman Senator Robert Menendez, Democrat-New Jersey

Ranking Member Senator Bob Corker, Republican-Tennessee

MACâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;13 Committee on Foreign relations: Committee on foreign relations is one of the permanent committees in MAC since it was launched in 2001. The committee selects the most heated political topics that are occupying place recently on the political arena. This year, CFRâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;13 discusses two crucial topics; Iran and Burma.

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Topics' Outline: First topic: Iran…...Defeating the nuclear nightmare  Introduction on Iran…….....................................................................................23  Insight on the history of Iran……………………………………………………………………….…23 o The era of Mohamed Reza Pahlavi o The Islamic Revolution of 1979  The Political System and the government……………………………………………………..26 o The regime structure o The governing bodies and institutions  The political conditions………………………………………………………………………………….28 o Cases of political violations  The people of Iran and the social conditions…………………………………….……….….29 o Ethnic and religious groups in Iran o Human rights in Iran o Cases of human rights violations  Economy…………………………………………………………………………………………….……..….31 o Major industries o Agreements and trade organizations  Iran’s military capabilities……………………………………………………..…………………..….33 o Armed Forces o Navy o Air Forces o Missile power  Iran’s nuclear program………………………………………………………………………..………..35 o The history of Iran’s nuclear program o Iran’s nuclear program in the wake of the Islamic revolution o The nuclear program in the era of president Mohamed Khatami o The nuclear program in the era of president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad  International/regional treaties and agreements……………………………………………39 19

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o Non-proliferation treaty o Comprehensive Nuclear Test- Ban Treaty Timeline for the sanctions………………………………………………………………………….….42 o Carter’s administration o Reagan’s administration o Clinton and G.W.Bush administration o Obama’s administration Iran’s foreign relations…………………………………………………………………………..………43 o U.S-Iranian relations o Israeli-Iranian relations o Iran’s major allies o Russian-Iranian relations o Sino-Iranian relations o North Korean-Iranian relations o Syrian-Iranian relations Gulf countries-Iranian relations……………………………………………………………………..49 o Saudi Arabian-Iranian relations o Bahraini-Iranian relations o Iraqi-Iranian relations o United Arab Emirates-Iranian relations Latin American-Iranian relations……………………………………………………………………51 o Venezuelan-Iranian relations o Cuban-Iranian relations Iran’s relations with Islamic groups……………………………………………………………….52 o Hezbollah o Al-Qaeda o Taliban o Hamas

 The future scenarios of the U.S-Iranian relations……………………………..…………...53

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Second Topic: Burma…..The hidden Gem  Introduction on Burma……………………………………………………………………….…………55  Glimpse of Burma’s history…………………………………………………………………………...56 o The Japanese Occupation o Burma’s independence o Military-led state o Aung San Suu Kyi  The political system and the government………………………………………………………58 o Burma’s 2008 constitution o The parliamentary elections in 2010 o The 2012 Burmese by-elections o The current regime structure o The reforms in Burma  Economic status of Burma………………………………………………………………………..…..60 o Illicit economy in Burma o Economic agreements  The Burmese people and the Social conditions………………………………………….….62 o Burma’s minority groups  Human rights in Burma………………………………………………………………………………..64 o The political prisoners o Freedom of religion o Use of forced labor o Sectarian violence o The crisis of the refugees, stateless and internally displaced people (IDPs) o Thailand o Bangladesh o China

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 Burma’s military capabilities………………………………………………………………………….69 o Military expenditures o Defense production  Burma’s nuclear ambition……………………………………………………………………………..70  Burma’s foreign relations………………………………………………………………………………71 o U.S-Burmese relations o Burma’s major allies o Sino-Burmese relations o Indo-Burmese relations o North Korean-Burmese relations o Russian-Burmese relations  Other crucial foreign relations……………………………………………………………………….74 o Thai-Burmese relations o Iranian-Burmese relations  The Future scenarios of the U.S-Burmese relations………………………………….……75

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1st Topic

Iran….Defeating the nuclear nightmare

Introduction: Iran is one of the countries that has a crucial as well as historical relations with the U.S .As matter of fact the relations between the two countries have witnessed multitude of fluctuations and recently these relations seem to face deadlock , due to the escalation of the incidents in general and the nuclear issue in particular.

The Islamic republic of Iran is located in the Middle East with Tehran, its capital. Iran is bordering the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf in the south and the Caspian Sea in the north. It covers an area of 1.648 million square kilometers, and it shares borders with Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan in the east of common borderline. Iran also shares borders with Turkey, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.

Insight on the History of Iran: “To know the truth of history is to realize its ultimate myth and its inevitable ambiguity”.

Roy P. Basler, American Historian.

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Before transforming into the Islamic republic of Iran, Iran underwent almost 58 years of what is known as the Pahlavi Dynasty .The Pahlavi rule began with Reza Shah Pahlavi, who was an officer in the military force. In 1921 he orchestrated a military coup against the government of the Qajar Dynasty and deposed Ahmed Shah the last ruler in this dynasty. Reza Shah Pahlavi had ambitious plans to develop the country in the fields of health care, education and infrastructure, as he sent many Iranians to Europe for training. He managed to transform Iran into a more progressed country.

In 1935 Reza Shah Pahlavi gave a direct order to the office of foreign affairs who in turn requested the foreign embassies and missions in Tehran that the country should be called Iran and not Persia any more, as Persia bore the name of one Iranian ethnical group, not all of them as well as the name of Iran was always called by all inhabitants of the country for thousands of years. During the WWII, Germany and Britain became enemies and Iran adopted a neutral stance. Following Germany's invasion of the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) in 1941, Britain and the USSR became allies and both turned their attention to Iran , as Britain owned the Angelo-Iranian Oil Company at that time, thus controlling all of Iran's oil resources. But many of Reza pahlaviâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s development demanded required foreign technical expertise. So to avoid awarding contracts to British and Soviet Companies, Reza Shah preferred to get the technical assistance from Germany, France, Italy and other European countries.

This caused a plenty of problems for Iran after 1939, when Germany and Britain became enemies in World War II. Reza Shah declared Iran a neutral country, as Britain insisted that the German engineers and technicians working on the projects in Iran were spies with the purpose of sabotaging British oil facilities in Iran and demanded that Iran should expel all German citizens. However Reza Shah refused, claiming that this would adversely impact his development projects. As a result of this Britain and the USSR invaded Iran, arrested Reza Shah Pahlavi and sent him into exile, then they permitted Reza Shah's son ,Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi to succeed to the throne.1

Reza Shah Pahlavi 1

Ghasemi, Shapour . "History of Iran Pahlavi Dynasty." Iranchamber. http://www.iranchamber.com/history/pahlavi/pahlavi.php> (accessed February 19, 2013).

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1. The Era of Mohamed Reza Pahlavi: The first few years during his rule were peaceful, as the real turning point was in 1953 when Mohammed Mossadegh the prime minister at that time was overthrown. Though this has bolstered the Shah’s position in the throne, but later on it had raised the Iranian public resentment against him, as it was perceived as an illegal act. He was trying to follow in his father’s footsteps and modernize Iran. So in 1962, he introduced several reforms, it was known as the White Revolution, among these reforms were; the establishment of literacy corps to teach rural areas to read and write, and allowed the peasants to purchase lands, as Iran at that time was a huge market for the American grain.

Iran started importing American cattle and poultry, displacing local farmers and their produce, besides the Shah’s attempts to reform the Bazaars and modernize them in order to simulate the American-style markets. As a result of this, he alienated small producers in favor of factories, funded by foreign investment, which produced expensive consumer goods, and the bazaar merchants’ business was slowly marginalized by the opening of American-style shopping malls.

Consequently, the Iranians’ sense of dissatisfaction continued to grow and escalate.

Accordingly, the Shah feared the opposition, and was very concerned about the stability of the rule, also he had faced several assassination attempts, so by Wielding considerable power over the government. Therefore he limited political freedom and appointed prime ministers who would be compliant to his demands. In 1957 the Shah established his own secret police the SAVAK that were known for their brutal tactics and cruel torture methods. Then in 1975, he merged all political parties into a new single party, Rastakhiz “Resurgence”, and the university and government employees were required to become members of this new party, all of these factors instigated the spark of the Islamic Revolution .

2. The Islamic Revolution in 1979: 25

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By smuggling tape cassettes into the country, Ayatollah Khomeini an oppositionist who was exiled in Iraq and then France managed to spread his anti-regime messages throughout Iran. In 1978 members of banned political parties among others began demonstrating against the Shah’s rule. Khomeini concentrated on uniting the different groups with the sole objective of overthrowing the Shah and he became the face of the 1979 revolution. As a cleric at the head of a largely secular opposition, on the same year the Iranian troops fired at the protestors in Tehran’s Jaleh Square, and it was reported that hundreds were killed. In response to this incident which was later known as the black Friday.

Then the Shah tried to save and improve the situation, by ending full censorship of the press, allowing the publication of the secret police’s Savak torturing methods and dismissing Prime Minister Amir-Abbas Hoveyda who was largely blamed for the country’s economic problems but still the demonstrators persisted. By the end of the year a massive demonstration officially called for Khomeini to lead the revolution and after other failed efforts, the Shah eventually left Iran in January of 1979, only for Khomeini to be welcomed as a replacement on 1st of February.

Later on in April, and after a landslide victory in a national referendum on whether or not Iran should be an Islamic Republic, Khomeini officially declared The Islamic Republic of Iran and its new constitution and himself as the Supreme leader and in 1980, Abolhassan Beni Sadr was elected for president. 2

The political system and the Government, the turning point in Iran’s history: The Islamic revolution in Iran was a significant turning point that led to a radical change in the Political system and the government.

Ayatollah Khomeini

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

2

Ali Khamenei

"The Iranian Revolution of 1979 - History in an HourHistory in an Hour." History In An Hour: History for busy people: history ebooks to read in an hourHistory in an Hour | History for busy people. http://www.historyinanhour.com/2011/03/26/the-iranian-revolution-of-1979 (accessed February 19, 2013).

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1. The Regime Structure: Iran’s Islamic regime established constitution adopted in a popular referendum, but considered to be too conservative and authoritarian. The system provides a degree of popular input, as well as the checks and balances provided by elected institutions. And this is manifested in the way the Supreme Leader is elected, on the other hand the president and the Majles ‘‘parliament’’ are elected directly.

2. The Governing Bodies and Institutions: 

The Assembly of Experts: Its jurisdiction is to choose a new Supreme Leader upon the death of the incumbent one. Also it oversees the work and the performance of the Supreme Leader. One of the most important powers held by the Assembly is the replacement of the supreme leader if necessary .Though this actions is highly controversial, also it can amend the constitution.

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The Supreme Leader: Is indirectly elected and is at the top of the Islamic Republic’s regime structure who has massive formal powers and no term limits, and this was clear when Ayatollah Khomeini’s passed away. So the Assembly selected one of his disciples Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader. Officially, the Supreme Leader is commander-in-chief of the armed forces possessing the power to appoint commanders. As well as the power under the constitution to remove the elected president if decided by either the judiciary or the elected Majles but accompanied with a cause.

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The Presidency: That is directly elected, but is clearly subordinate to the Supreme Leader.

During the Islamic Republic, many presidents attempted to expand their presidential power and authority relative to that of the supreme leader, but they were unsuccessful attempts.

The president has the power to appoint and oversee the work of the cabinet, but for the ministers of defense, interior and intelligence, the supreme leader has great influence over their appointments.

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The Majles: Iran’s parliament is unicameral and its members are elected. Its jurisdiction is to confirm the Cabinet appointments, in addition to drafting the legislations, among them is considering and enacting a proposed national budget.

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The Council of Guardians: It reviews the legislations to guarantee its compliance with Islamic law. Also it monitors the election candidates and confirms the election result. It consists of six Islamic jurists appointed by the supreme leader and six secular lawyers selected by the judiciary and confirmed by the Majles.

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

The Expediency Council: Its powers were expanded in 2006 to encompass the oversight of the cabinet performance and to resolve legislative disagreements between the Majles and the Council of Guardians. Its incumbent chairman is Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani.3

Political Conditions, the crave for Democracy: “Democracy is worth dying for, because it's the most deeply honorable form of government ever devised by man” - Ronald Regan.

According to the international observer the elections have always lacked some credibility .Due to the hard-liners’ ability to use their influence over key elected institutions such as: the Interior Ministry and the Council of Guardians with the purpose of diminishing the diversified ideological candidates, as the selection of the candidates is based on their knowledge and loyalty to the Islamic system. Another drawback which is the establishment of political parties that requires the permission of the Interior Ministry and the criteria set for the approval of the parties’ establishment are very high.

Cases of political violations: In 2009, during Ahmadinejad’s reelection, the Interior Ministry announced two hours after the polls closed that Ahmadinejad had won, and that Mir Hosein Musavi came in the second place. As a result Musavi’s supporters protested the results, but Khamenei declared the results as a divine assessment and seemed to confirm the results even though there was a formal three-day complaint period. These protests were referred to as the Green Revolution because it involved using Face-book and Twitter. These protests spread largely in Tehran as well as other cities and was encountered by the Security Forces that was trying to suppress it, causing the death of 27 protesters during the incidents.

Also in 2009, Khamenei disproved the allegations of fraud and threatened a crackdown on further protests. However the Protesters challenged Khamenei but they faced a crackdown that left at least 10 killed. Moreover the demonstrations planned on the anniversary of the Islamic Republic foundation in 2010 were suppressed. The regime also obstructed the opposition communication and made hundred precautious arrests. This is besides executing some oppositionists and then in 2011 Musavi and Mehdi Karrubi were placed under strict house arrest.4

3

Katzman, Kenneth. "congressional research service." FAS. ://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL32048.pdf (accessed February 20, 2013).

4 Katzman, Kenneth. "congressional research service." FAS. ://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL32048.pdf (accessed February 20, 2013).

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The People of Iran & Social Conditions, the diversified nation: Iran has many ethnic and religious groups, will Iran stop violating the human rights? And are there any chances for this diversified nation to coexist?

1. Ethnic and Religious Groups in Iran:

Ethnic Groups Persians 51 % Azaris ‘’Turkic people” 24 % Kurds 7-15 % Arabs

3%

Religious Groups Shitte Muslim 90 % Sunni Muslims 10 % Non-Muslims ; Christians, Jewish, Bahaii and 2% Zoroastrians “ancient religion”

2. Human Rights In Iran: A. Media Freedoms in Iran: The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance had an active program of blocking pro-reform websites and blogs. As they had already shut down hundreds of reformist newspapers, also many attempts are carried out to re-open these sites under new names, but reportedly many journalists and bloggers have been arrested. This is a part of Iran’s efforts to grip tightly the Internet usage by setting up a national network that would have a virtual monopoly on Internet.

B. Religious Freedoms in Iran: The standards of the religious freedoms in Iran are continually deteriorating. As according to the International Religious Freedom report of 2010, the government‘s led to a threatening atmosphere for nearly all non-Shitte religious groups, specifically the Bahaiis, Sufi Muslims, evangelical Christians, Jews, and Shitte groups that do not adhere to the government's official religious views. This made Iran a country of particular concern under the IRFA (International Religious Freedom Act).

C. Human Trafficking: According to the state Department report for Human trafficking in 2012 and for the 7 th consecutive year, Iran was ranked in the 3 rd class as the worst level for its failure in taking effective actions to prevent human trafficking. And this is evident with the Iranian women, boys, and girls that are trafficked for sexual exploitation in Iran as well as in other countries, possibly with the involvement of religious leaders and immigration officials.

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D. Stoning: Is a method used for punishment when committing some sins according to the Islamic Sharia. In 2002, the head of Iranâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s judiciary issued a ban on stoning. But Iranian officials considered this as advisory that could be ignored by judges. Then in 2008, Iran confirmed the stoning deaths of two men who were convicted of adultery.

E. Executions policy: According to the state department report for human rights in 2011, there were between 275 and 700 executions during this year, including crimes committed by minors. Though Iran is a party to the Convention on the Rights of the Child, thus has to comply with it and considers that they are minors. Iran carries out a lot of executions in comparison with other countries.

3. Cases of Human rights violations: A. Arrests of Dual Nationals and Foreign Nationals: The journalist Roxanna Saberi, an Iranian American that was arrested in 2009, due to the expiry of her press credentials. She was charged with espionage for having an Iranian military document .And as a result of this she was sentenced to eight years in jail, then released on appeal on the same year then she left Iran.5 B. The persecution of other religious minorities: The hanging of four members of the Ahwazi Arab minority secretly, as they were hanged with the charge of enmity against God. While the fate and the conditions of a further two men remained vague. All of them were held for more than a year without lawyers. This is besides the continued persecution of other religious minorities such as; Christian Pastor Nadarkhani is a member of the Bahaii faith. She was arrested without prior notification of her charge.

C. Denial of medical treatment to seriously ill prisoners: Many prisoners serving drastic sentences on false charges are deprived of the medical treatment.

5

"U.S. Department of State." U.S. Department of State. State Department reports on religious freedom (September 13, 2011). U.N. Special Rapporteur report dated September 23, 2011 (U.N. document no.

A/66/374).State Department reports on trafficking in persons (June 19, 2012).State Department reports on human rights (May 24, 2012). http://www.state.gov (accessed February 20, 2013).

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Economy, the Cornerstone of Iran: The economy of Iran has been a primary factor in shaping Iran’s political evolution, but it has also been the target of U.S sanctions and other international measures trying to influence Iranian policy, will Iran persevere and survive any ordeal?

Iran is the second largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa in terms of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) after Saudi Arabia with $400 billion .In 2011, Iran possess a variety of natural resources, thus it’s the world’s third largest oil reserve, and the world’s second largest deposit of natural gas after Russia. Iran is now transforming into a market-based economy. But in many ways the state remains a key player in the economy through owning large public enterprises that control the crucial manufacturing and commercial sectors.

When it comes to economic freedom, Iran’s score is 43.2 which make it the 168th freest economy in the 2013 index. This is a result of large-scale state interference and corruption.

Recently, the economy has been a source of discontent among ordinary Iranians due to the currency crisis that Iran is facing at the moment. One of the reasons behind this crisis was caused by the financial sanctions that have been imposed on Iran, and other claims referring to the collapse of the Iranian economy.

The oil and gas exports constitute about 60% of the government revenues in 2011-2012, as they are Iran's main source of foreign exchange. But lately, they have fallen to reach about 40%, because the oil revenues coming in from the EU (European Union) constitute about a fifth of Iran's crude sales abroad have been affected. As a result, the sharp fall in currency has ignited a wave of protests in 2012 against Ahmadinejad’s government, to which he responded by blaming the western sanctions. As The Iranian Rial has lost much of its value this year, inflation is running at 20%, the prices of staple foods and utility bills have multiplied in these recent years, and tens of thousands of Iranians have lost their jobs, and trade between Iran and European countries has halved in a year. So in 2013, the official inflation rate was estimated at 21.3 %.6

6

Bahgat, Gawdat. "United States-Iranian Relations: The Terrorism Challenge." carlisle.army. http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/parameters/Articles/08winter/bahgat.pdf>.Pawlak, Justyna (accessed February 20, 2013).

"BBC News - Iran police clash with protesters over currency crisis." BBC - Homepage. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19812482 (accessed February 20, 2013).

"Iran Economy: Population, GDP, Inflation, Business, Trade, FDI, Corruption." Conservative Policy Research and Analysis. http://www.heritage.org/index/country/iran (accessed February 20, 2013).

"Iran Overview." World Bank Group. http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview (accessed February 20, 2013).

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1. Major industries imports/exports:7 Rank Amount (est 2012) Commodities

Partners (est 2011)

Exports 53 $ 66.37 billion Petroleum(80%)-chemical and petrochemical productscarpets China 21.4 % Japan 9.1 % Turkey 8.8 % India 8.1 % South Korea 8%

Imports 47 $ 66.97 billion Industrial supplies-capital goods-technical services-food stuff UAE 30.9 % China 17.4 % South Korea 7.1 % Germany 4.8 % Turkey 4.2 %

2. Agreements and trade organizations: In 2011, Iran and Syria signed the FTA (Free Trade Agreement), as the agreement was put into effect in 2012 and is expected to boost bilateral trade to $2 billion. Iran is also a member of the ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization), which is a regional organization established by Iran, Pakistan and Turkey aiming at promoting economic and technical relations between its member-states. In addition, Iran is a member of the GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum),which is an intergovernmental Organization of the world’s greatest natural gas producers, as its importance lies in its member states' natural gas reserves that comprise 70 % of the world’s reserves. Moreover Iran is a founding member of the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), which is aimed at safeguarding its members’ interests and ensure the stabilization of oil markets. Iran is also part of the Developing 8 which is an economic alliance between countries with large Muslim Populations and the Colombo Plan, that is a regional intergovernmental organization that promotes support for the economic development of Asia and the Pacific.8

7

"The world factbook-Iran." CIA. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html (accessed February 20, 2013).

8 "Economic Cooperation Organization." Economic Cooperation Organization. http://www.ecosecretariat.org (accessed February 20, 2013). " Home." http://www.gecf.org (accessed February 20, 2013). " About Us." Home. http://www.gecf.org/aboutus/about-gecf (accessed February 20, 2013).

"D-8 organization for economic cooperation ." Home Page. http://www.developing8.org/About.aspx (accessed February 20, 2013).

"Overview – The Colombo Plan Secretariat." The Colombo Plan Secretariat. http://www.colomboplan.org/index.php/about-cps/overview (accessed February 20, 2013).

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Iran’s military capabilities, the power of weapons: Iran is ranked as the 12th world’s most powerful military, will Iran’s military capabilities enable it to safeguard its national security? Or does it need further precautions?

Iran plays a critical and potential role in the Persian Gulf with its strategic geography, though it has a relatively inferior military power in comparison with the U.S and other NATO countries. But it’s capable of delivering considerably large blows which are difficult to counter at larger conventional forces. Recently in 2012, Iran planed to double the military spending over the coming 12 months with a 127 % increase, as the parliament has authorized a $3 billion extension. 9

1. Armed forces: In the wake of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran divided its armed forces into regular and revolutionary. By this, Iran is having two active armies: 



The Islamic Republic of Iran Regular army: is known as Artesh ,Iran has almost more than 523,000 personnel on active service, including 350,000 in the army, and 220,000 conscripts. This army is charged with defending the country's borders and preserving the internal order, also it has ground forces, a navy, an air force and Air Defense Headquarters.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Is known as IRGC and it is in charge of protecting the Islamic system and maintaining it. The IRGC comprises the Ground Resistance Forces, Navy, Aerospace Force and the Quds Force which is considered as the elite in IRGC and it is responsible for special and extra-territorial operations. Both armies have the same military facilities, but the IRGC has a higher status and can receive more modern inventories. Also the IRGC is viewed as the most loyal to the ruling system having more than 125,000 soldiers.

2. Navy: Iran has 18,000 Iranian naval personnel, as well as significantly large fleet of naval craft, including 23 submarines, 15 tactical subs diesel-electric attack submarines, 12 midget submarines .It also has built shallow-water vessels made for the Gulf and eight swimmer delivery vehicles. According to some reports, Iran has more than 100 patrol and coastal combat ships, including six corvettes, 13 patrol craft, four patrol boats, 21 semi-submersible boats and 56 other different patrol vessels. 10

9

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE. "Iran Plans 127 Percent Defense Budget Increase." defensenews. http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120202/DEFREG04/302020003/Iran-Plans-127-Percent-Defense-BudgetIncreas (accessed February 20, 2013).

10 piven,Ben. " Iran and Israel: Comparing military machines - Features - Al Jazeera English." Al Jazeera English - Live US, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Sports, Weather & Business News. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/03/2012326131343853636.html (accessed February 20, 2013).

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This is besides the U.S. Navy intelligence’s estimation about Iran having a rocket-propelled antiship mine. Iran is also believed to produce its own mines. In addition to the U.S. experts’ speculations about Iran that it’s having at least 2,000 mines by 2004, which is considered as a key threat, because the U.S normally deploys limited mine warfare capabilities in the Gulf area.

Moreover the Gulf naval capabilities include only five Saudi mine layers and some helicopters with uncertain readiness and training.11

Iranian Submarine

3. Air Forces: Iran's air force is believed to comprise some 336 combat-capable aircraft, including 189 fighter aircraft .Also it has 108 ground attack aircraft, among them both Iranian and Russian-built craft, as well as having maritime reconnaissance helicopters.12

4. Missile power: There are some speculations about Iran and procession of possessing roughly 1,000 strategic missiles, capable of striking throughout the Gulf and beyond.

They are believed to be controlled by the Revolutionary Guards, as it’s comprised of approximately 300 short-range ballistic missiles, including Iranian-made ones. Tehran has also domestically produced strategic IRBM (intermediate-range ballistic missiles IRBM), with an estimated range of up to 1,000 km, as the Ghadr-1 with an estimated 1,600km range, and the Shahab-3 with a reported range of up to 2,400km. If these estimations are proved to be true this means that Israel and much of Eastern Europe are jeopardized because they would be within range. Moreover, in 2009, Iran declared that it had tested a new air-to-air missile.

In 2010, Iran announced that it is producing short-range cruise missiles describing it as highly accurate and capable of destroying heavy and potential targets. In the same year Iran tested domestically designed and built medium-range surface-to-air missiles in the Gulf. In other words the west’s main concerns about Iran besides its nuclear program, its creation of armed ballistic missile forces that can strike at any U.S allies and bases in the region. What 11

"The Conventional Military | The Iran Primer." The Iran Primer. http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/conventional-military (accessed February 20, 2013).

12 piven,Ben. " Iran and Israel: Comparing military machines - Features - Al Jazeera English." Al Jazeera English - Live US, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Sports, Weather & Business News. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/03/2012326131343853636.html (accessed February 20, 2013).

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make the situation more dangerous is Iran’s ballistic missiles that could be configured to carry nuclear warheads if developed. 13

Iran’s Nuclear Program, the Potent Jeopardy: Iran is Challenging the International community, Will it resume turning the deaf ear and the blind eye to the sanctions? Or it’ll retract and recalibrate its policies and decisions concerning the nuclear program?

Iran’s Key nuclear sites

1. The History of Iran’s Nuclear Program: The roots of Iran’s nuclear program that proceeded with its nuclear research and developments dates back to the mid 1960s with the patronage of the U.S based on a framework of bilateral agreements between the two countries. The first important nuclear facility built by the Shah was the TNRC (Tehran Nuclear Research Center), which was founded in 1967. It has always been one of Iran's major open nuclear research facilities. It has a protected and secured nuclear research reactor supplied by the U.S, which can produce up to 600 grams of plutonium per year in its spent fuel.

Then in the early 1970s, the progress of events led to shaping and accelerating the development of Iran's nuclear program. At the time, some studies reported that by the year 1990, Iran would need an electrical capacity of about 20,000-megawatt. What helped more was 13

Research, Global. "Iran’s Military Capabilities: Iran Could Attack US Military Facilities, “Asymmetric Warfare”: Russian Defense Analyst | Global Research." Global Research. http://www.globalresearch.ca/iran-s-militarycapabilities-iran-could-attack-us-military-facilities-asymmetric-warfare-russian-defense-analyst (accessed February 20, 2013). piven,Ben. " Iran and Israel: Comparing military machines - Features - Al Jazeera English." Al Jazeera English - Live US, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Sports, Weather & Business News. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/03/2012326131343853636.html (accessed February 20, 2013).

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that the American oil consumption of gasoline and other significant products was rising while the domestic oil production was declining, which increased the U.S dependence on the imported oil .Thus raising the Americans’ concerns about the decline in the supply, plus the vast increase in the oil price during the 1973 war between the Arab countries and Israel .14 Afterwards in 1974, the work for constructing two Siemens 1,200-megawatt nuclear reactors at Bushehr has started. This was because of the Shah’s ambitious program for building presumably 23 nuclear reactors, but the construction was halted following the revolution and regime change. In 1975,a contract was signed between the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with the AEOI (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran) in order to provide the Iranian nuclear engineers with required training ,as well as the cooperation treaty signed between India and Iran. So in the mid -1970s, the Nuclear Technology Center at Esfahan was founded with the help of France to provide training for the staff that would work along with the Bushehr reactors’. Recently, The Esfahan Center has been operating four small nuclear research reactors which are all supplied by China.

In 1977, the Shah's government was going to purchase eight nuclear reactors from the U.S to generate electricity. In 1978, only seven months before the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the final draft of the U.S-Iran Nuclear Energy Agreement was signed. It was supposed to facilitate cooperation in the field of nuclear energy and to regulate the export and transfer of equipment and material needed for Iran’s nuclear energy program, accordingly Iran was to receive American technology and assistance in searching for uranium deposits.

On the other side of the Iranian nuclear issue, some credible sources such as; Dr/ Akbar Etemad the founder and the first President of the AEOI from 1974 -1978 mentioned that the TNRC carried out experiments in which plutonium was extracted from spent fuel using chemical agents as the sole use for plutonium is in a nuclear bomb. This was besides the writings of Asadollah Alam the Imperial Court Minister and the Shah's close confidant that mentioned the Shah’s vision of Iran which includes possessing nuclear weapons.

2. Iran’s nuclear program in the wake of the Islamic Revolution: In February 1979, when the Islamic Revolution dethroned the Shah's government, the Bushehr1 was 90% complete and 60% of its equipment had already been installed, while Bushehr-2 was 50% complete. But the government of Prime Minister Mehdi Bazargan then decided that Iran was not in need of nuclear energy, therefore the work at Bushehr was stopped after the 14

1970s, the early, American oil consumption–in the form of gasoline, other products–was rising even as domestic oil production was declining, and sky-high prices throughout much of the decade.. "Energy Crisis (1970s) — History.com Articles, Video, Pictures and Facts." History.com — History Made Every Day — American & World History. http://www.history.com/topics/energy-crisis (accessed February 20, 2013).

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Revolution. What revived the idea of owning nuclear technology and made Iran’s leaders to reconsider it once more, was the Iraqi missile attacks against Tehran in the aftermath of the revolution during 1986-1987.

Another three significant reasons for re-initiating Iran’s nuclear program at that time were; Firstly, Iran’s major shortage of electricity that started since the early 1970s. Secondly, the rapid growth of its population. Thirdly, the first reconstruction and development plan proposed and carried out by President Hashemi Rafsanjani's government. So the first step taken by his government was to approach Kraftwerk Union to complete the Bushehr project. But under the U.S pressure, the Kraftwerk Union refused. Consequently Iran asked Germany to allow Kraftwerk to ship the reactor components and technical documentation that it had paid for, that obliged Siemens to deliver all plant materials and components stored outside Iran.

However the German government refused to do so.15

3. The Nuclear program in the era of President Mohammad Khatami : In late 2002, major international concerns and attention began to arise and to target Iran’s Nuclear program and that was obvious when Iran Confirmed PMOI (People’s Mujahdeen organization of Iran’s) allegations that Iran was building two facilities that could probably be used to produce fissile material useful for a nuclear weapon. The first one is a uranium enrichment facility at Natanz , the second is a heavy water production plant at Arak. Both are considered typical for the production of plutonium. In 2003 Iran invited The IAEA to visit them as President Mohammad Khatami announced that on Iranian TV. In late February, Dr/Mohammad El Baradei, the head of the IAEA at the time with a team of inspectors visited Iran. Afterwards, the IAEA's experts and inspectors paid Iran several other visits and then published a preliminary report in July, with a follow up report on August 26. On September 12, 2003, Iran was warned by the IAEA to uncover all the details of its nuclear activities. In the same year the supreme leader Ali Khamene’s issued a fatwa which stated that “Nuclear weapons are against Islam, expensive and harmful”.16

4. The Nuclear program in the era of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: In 2009, Iran met six world powers in Geneva and approved in principle a plan to send 75 % of its low-enriched uranium to Russia and France, to be made into special fuel for a Tehran 15

Sahimi, Mohammad. "Iran's Nuclear Program. Part I: Its History." Payvand.com. http://www.payvand.com/news/03/oct/1015.html (accessed February 20, 2013).

16 Katzman, Kenneth. "Iran: US concerns and policy responses." FAS. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL32048.pdf (accessed February 20, 2013).

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reactor with the purpose of making medical materials. Also, UN nuclear experts inspected a newly disclosed enrichment plant being built inside a mountain bunker, as Iran told the IAEA that they demand fresh nuclear fuel for a reactor in Tehran, before agreeing to ship enriched uranium stocks to Russia and France. The IAEA condemned Iran’s secret development of the Fordow plant near Qom and asked Iran to freeze the project but Iran rejected to do so.

In January 2010, Iran rejected crucial parts of the deal which stipulates sending abroad for processing most of its enrichment material. However, it began making higher-grade nuclear fuel, enriched to a level of 20% at the Natanz plant. Ali Akbar Salehi declared that Iran will use domestically produced uranium concentrates, known as yellowcake. This was the first time that a nuclear facility does not rely on importing the ingredients for nuclear fuel. This coincided with talks that started in Geneva between Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who led the discussions on behalf of the big powers.

In January 2011, the world powers failed to gain any change from Iran in talks with the EU and U.S. calling the discussions disappointing and saying no further meetings are planned.

Also, Russia and China joined Western powers in addressing Iran‘s consistent failure to comply with UN resolutions’ deepened concerns about possible military dimensions to its nuclear program. Iran allowed (IAEA) Deputy Director General “Herman Nackaerts” rare access to a facility for developing advanced uranium enrichment machines during a tour of the country's main atomic sites.

The Senior UN inspectors unsuccessfully ended a second round of talks in Tehran, even without inspecting a military site at Parchin, as Iran had tripled its monthly production of higher-grade enriched uranium and the IAEA had major concerns about the possible hidden military purposes to Tehran's activities. Following that the EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton accepted Iran's offer of new talks after a one-year halt. Thereafter Iran cut oil exports to Spain and there was possibility to stop sales to Germany and Italy as well. This was a step to foster its position before the crucial talks. Afterwards, Ahmadinejad declared that Iran will not surrender and give up its nuclear rights even if it’s placed under severe pressures and lobbying.

Then talks between Iran and the U.S, France, Germany, China, Russia and Britain were resumed in Istanbul. 17 In January 2012, The IAEA stated that Iran initiated refining uranium to a fissile purity of 20 % at Fordow, but with nuclear advances that included new centrifuges capable of enriching uranium much faster. This was followed by Iran’s proposal to resume nuclear talks with world powers. Then in late August 2012, a report by the IAEA detailed how Iran used the summery to double the number of centrifuges installed near the city of Qom, while cleansing another site being suspected where Iran has conducted explosive experiments that could be related to the production of a nuclear weapon. In the same year, there was an announcement by the top nuclear official that the country was on the brink of initiating production at its second major 17

"Timeline: Iranian nuclear dispute." reuters. TIMELINE-Iranian nuclear dispute."Reuters (accessed February 20, 2013).

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uranium enrichment site. As the new facility is buried deep underground on a well-secured and defended military site and is considered more resistant to airstrikes than the existing one at Natanz. Also, satellite photographs showed that the new plant is surrounded by anti-aircraft guns, and the mountainous setting was designed to make any bombing campaign nearly impossible.18 According to an IAEA report published in mid-November, Iran has a stockpile of 20 % enriched uranium, thus its ability can probably produce the 90 % uranium required to provide fissile material for atomic bombs.19

International/ regional treaties and agreements, compliance or defiance?

Iran has obligations and commitments, as it is a signatory to international and regional treaties, will it comply with the provisions stipulated? Or will it defy them?

1. Non-Proliferation Treaty: The treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is known as the NPT, was opened for signature in 1968 and entered into force in 1970. Its objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and to promote the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes as well as to achieve nuclear disarmament. A total of 190 parties have joined the treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states: U. S, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, France, and China. The treaty encompasses a safeguards system under the responsibility of the IAEA, and is used to verify compliance with the treaty through inspections conducted by the IAEA. Iran signed the treaty in 1968, thus became party to it and has always insisted that it is in full compliance with all safeguards. But still this has been largely criticized as false by the international community, as It is hard to determine whether Iran has violated the NPT or not.

Solely because the treaty does not contain a mechanism through which it can be decided that a member-state has gone against it, this is because the UN Security Council has never declared Iran to be in violation of the NPT. However, the Security Council has taken action in response to the IAEA’s decision that Iran has in fact violated the agency’s safeguards. Because Iran is viewed to have violated the agency’s statute which states that NPT non-nuclear-weapon states-parties are required to accept the IAEA safeguards, and this is in the article that states “for the exclusive purpose of verification of 18

"Iran's nuclear program." The new york times . Iran's nuclear program (nuclear talks 2012)." Newyork times (accessed February 20, 2013).

19 Mohammed, Arshad. " Exclusive: Big powers to offer easing gold sanctions at Iran nuclear talks| Reuters."

Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/15/us-iran-nuclear-gold-idUSBRE91E0TP20130215 (accessed February 21, 2013).

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the fulfillment of its obligations assumed under this Treaty with a view to preventing diversion of nuclear energy from peaceful uses to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices”.

The second violation is of the article that states” non-nuclear-weapon states-parties shall not manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons ,or other nuclear explosive devices or seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons ,or other nuclear explosive devices”.

As a result of this in 2005, State Department report declared that the breadth of Iran’s nuclear development efforts, the secrecy and deceptions with which they have been conducted for nearly 20 years with its persistent failure to adhere to its obligations to report to the IAEA, and to apply safeguards to such activities. The lack of a reasonable economic justification for this program leads to conclude that Iran is pursuing an effort to manufacture nuclear weapons, and has sought and received assistance in this effort.20

2. Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty: Which known as CTBT, it is a treaty that was opened for signature in 1996 and the total number of states is 196. It is also designed to prevent nuclear explosions, the uncontrolled and ultimate release of energy produced by fission or a fusion reaction throughout the world whether for military or for peaceful purposes. But Up until now the treaty has not entered into force due to the fact that it is missing the signatures and ratifications of some of the Annex 2 states. This term refers to the 44 states that previously participated in negotiations of the CTBT from 1994- 1996 and possessed a nuclear or research at that time .Most importantly they are the states whose signature and ratification are required for the treaty to enter into force. But there are now eight Annex 2 states that have to ratify the Treaty. The Annex 2 states that only signed the treaty are: China, Egypt, Iran, Israel, and the U.S, while the other Annex 2 states that haven’t signed are: North Korea, India, and Pakistan.21 The consequences of the U.S ratification of the treaty can encourage other Annex 2 states to follow in its footsteps, thus acting as a pressure card on china and Iran to ratify it .This is besides that maintaining nuclear arsenals was against the conditions of the NPT and the CTBT itself. In 2009, President Obama declared his intention to pursue the CTBT ratification, besides that many countries agreed to the concept of the CTBT’s contribution to the international efforts toward nuclear. Furthermore, the Treaty would certainly curb any future development 20

K. Kerr, Paul. "Iran’s Nuclear Program: Tehran’s Compliance with International Obligations." FAS. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R40094.pdf (accessed February 21, 2013).

"Iran Ridicules Netanyahuâ Bomb-Theatrics - NYTimes.com." The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/29/world/middleeast/iran-ridicules-netanyahus-bombtheatrics.html (accessed February 21, 2013).

21 "Status of signature and ratification: CTBTO Preparatory Commission." CTBTO. "Treaty Text: CTBTO Preparatory Commission." Home: CTBTO Preparatory Commission. http://www.ctbto.org/thetreaty/treaty-text (accessed February 21, 2013).

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of nuclear weapons.22 This means that it would be nearly impossible for any non-nuclear country to pursue developing a thermonuclear weapon, as well as setting limitations on the nuclear weapon countries.

As for the U.S, the state-of-the art technology will successfully maintain and preserve its nuclear stockpile without the necessity of testing. Moreover the LEPs (Life extension programs work) guarantee that the older nuclear warheads will not be abandoned. Also the U.S has completed an LEP for two warheads which constitutes roughly one third of the current U.S nuclear stockpile. The international verification regime of the CTBT has made it more difficult and tougher than for cheaters to secretly conduct nuclear testing. In 2006, the North Korean nuclear test provides solid proof that a nuclear testing can be detected at only 50% capacity, as more than twenty seismic stations registered the test and within two hours the information about its location, magnitude and time of the test were available to state signatories, and the location of the test within 1000 square Kilometers were proved. Finally, by allowing the full operation of the CTBT, this will diminish the ultimate use and test of new nuclear weapons.

Therefore decreasing the terrorist threats and the possession of dangerous nuclear weapons by wrong people, accordingly this would ensure the continual protection of the U.S citizens as the current moratorium on nuclear testing is not sufficient. 23 On the other hand, the ratification of the CTBT would create sort of discriminatory and unbalanced system. Referring to the loophole that the nuclear weapon states with advanced technology can cheat and improve their nuclear arsenal with subcritical testing which is the testing of non-nuclear components of weapons that would not result in a sustained nuclear chain reaction. Furthermore, the nuclear disarmament and having a world free of nuclear weapons require different treaty with different verification procedures as well as different obligations and commitments from the nuclear weapons states. 24 For the U.S, there is no definition of the word “explosion”. Moreover, this word may be differently interpreted by other countries. This is besides the U.S claims that the international monitoring system is based on the seismic evidence which isn’t capable of detecting low –yield test. There are speculations about Russia and China conducting the low-yield tests, accordingly they can develop and advance their nuclear capabilities. Another important point is that if the U.S ratified the treaty, this would make other countries as Iran and North Korea to perceive the

22

"1994-96: Debating the basic issues: CTBTO Preparatory Commission." Home: CTBTO Preparatory Commission. http://www.ctbto.org/the-treaty/1993-1996-treaty-negotiations/1994-96-debating-the-basic-issues/ (accessed February 21, 2013).

23 Olson, Laicie. "CTBT Today: More Reasons for Ratification." PSR. http://www.psr.org/assets/pdfs/ctbt-todaymore-reasons-for.pdf (accessed February 21, 2013).

24 "1994-96: Debating the basic issues: CTBTO Preparatory Commission." Home: CTBTO Preparatory Commission. http://www.ctbto.org/the-treaty/1993-1996-treaty-negotiations/1994-96-debating-the-basic-issues/ (accessed February 21, 2013).

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U.S as a weak country that can be easily exploited and consequently cannot deter the threats and dangers that might surround its allies. 25

Timeline for the sanctions, the pressure and the obstacles: The sanctions imposed on Iran impede its economic and military progress; will Iran give up and submit to the sanctions? Or will it stand steadfast?

1. Carter‘s administration: The U.S sanctions on Iran are not new. The first sanctions date back to 1979, in response to the attack on the U.S embassy and hostages held by Iranian militants. The sanctions were manifested in the first oil embargo and prohibition of foreign aid to the Iran.

2. Reagan’s administration: Since 1984, the U.S different economic sanctions on Iran economy increased and intensified over time and these sanctions started with a ban on the sale of American arms and dual-use technologies. And most importantly Reagan’s administration listed Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism. 26

3. Clinton and G.W.Bush administrations: Then the sanctions gradually expanded to encompass the present total embargo on all bilateral trade and investment, and were even extended to secondary boycotts penalizing foreign companies investing in Iran’s oil and gas sectors. Though before the 1979 revolution broke out, the U.S was one of Iran’s top three major trading partners and allies.

4. Obama’s administration: In 2010, CISADA (the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions Accountability and Divestment Act) passed and was enacted. This act mainly amends, expands and extends the Iran Sanctions Act of1996. Then the UNSC (the United Nations Security Council) adopted the resolution, as the fourth in a series of sanctions on Iran. In 2011, the U.S started imposing new sanctions against Iran with the purpose of preventing it from collecting revenue from exports of crude oil. Then the EU (European Union) did the same, by embargoing all imports of Iranian crude from July 1, 2012 and banning any firms from signing new contracts to 25

Spring, Baker. " U.S. Should Reject Ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty." Conservative Policy Research and Analysis. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/05/us-should-reject-ratification-of-thecomprehensive-test-ban-treaty (accessed February 21, 2013).

Godsberg, Alicia. " CTBT ratification and fact-twisting arguments » FAS Strategic Security Blog ." Federation of American Scientists. http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/03/ctbt-ratification-and-fact-twisting-arguments.php (accessed February 21, 2013).

26 Category. "A History Of U.S. Sanctions Against Iran." Welcome to About.com US Foreign Policy. http://usforeignpolicy.about.com/od/alliesenemies/a/A-History-Of-U-S-Sanctions-Against-Iran.htm (accessed March 18, 2013).

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import Iranian oil. After January 23, 2012, these new U.S and EU sanctions were perceived as the toughest in many years. 27

Iran’s Foreign Relations, the Allies and Enemies Showdown: Iran’s foreign relations are prudent at times, while risky and impulsive at other times, Will Iran take wise steps towards maintaining its allies? Or will it transcend and keep provoking its enemies?

1. US-Iranian Relations: Between 1945 -1979, the U.S.-Iranian relationship was in one way or another similar to modern-day U.S.-Saudi relationship, where the U.S. maintained relatively strong relations with a ruling family. In the case of Iran though the U.S. dealt with one ruler, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi ,who came to the throne in 1941 and remained as Shah for four decades.

During this period, the bilateral relations were characterized by a number of persistent features: The American side’s interest in Iran lied in its strategic location between the Middle East and Central Asia, bordering the Persian Gulf on one side and on the other one, sharing long borders with one of the U.S’ previous adversaries, The Soviet union. In addition to its large oil reserves ,during the Cold War between the US and Soviet union, Iran was a potential target of Soviet expansionism therefore, the U.S had to go forward and gain Iran as an ally. As Iran grew wealthier from oil revenues, it became an increasingly important market for U.S. goods, arms, industrial equipment, technology, investments and the employment of American technicians, advisers, specialists during the oil boom years following 1973.

As for the Iranian Side, the U.S. was perceived as a potential safeguard against the dominance of the two great powers The Soviet union and Britain, both to which Iran lost territory in the 19th and 20th century, mainly to the Soviet Union. Moreover, both countries were deeply involved in Iran’s economy and trade, both interfered extensively in Iran’s internal affairs and politics. Therefore, Iran did not only regard the U.S as a proponent and protector through what was called Third –Country policy; that means trying to find a country that could counterbalance these two great powers in the 19th century, which also included Germany and France at times. In the 20th century and particularly at the start of WWII, Iran began to perceive the U.S, not only as an ally but also as a catalyst in advancing the Shah’s dreams of grandeur; the idea that Iran could and should be a great power, at least in the region.

27

"U.S. Sanctions | The Iran Primer." The Iran Primer. http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/us-sanctions (accessed February 21, 2013).

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The US-Iranian relations could be classified into four consecutive phases: 1941-1953: Iran sought a protector and friend and had begun to pursue closer relations with the U.S since the Americans were very helpful in pressuring the Russians to withdraw from Iran. The U.S sent advisors to assist in building up the Iranian army, police, and gendarmerie force and supported other areas of the Iranian administration such as; Finance. But in 1951, trouble arose after Iran initiated a movement to nationalize the Iranian oil industry since it was the most important industry in the country and the primary source of foreign exchange revenues. It is good to note the fact that the Iranian oil industry was British-controlled and the Iranians had no say in the management of the company, production or setting oil prices. This movement was led by Mohammed Mossadegh. Following this, a two-year struggle over the control of the oil industry began between Iran and Britain. The latter believed that Mossadegh was not a reasonable man with whom they could negotiate things with, so they sought to have him removed from office.

To do this, they attempted to persuade the U.S. to join them in a plot to overthrow him.

Truman, who was the U.S president at the time, refused to go along with this idea. But as soon as the Eisenhower administration came to power, it was very welcoming of the prospect of getting rid of Mossadegh. Both Eisenhower’s secretary of state John Foster Dulles, and his brother Allen the head of the CIA, were Cold Warriors who believed that neutrality in the Cold War between the Soviet bloc and the U.S. was an act of immorality. so they joined forces with the British in the operation known as TPAJAX Project which, despite some uncertainty, successfully overthrew Mossadegh and the Shah who almost lost his throne over the affair, returned to Iran in August 1953. Consequently, the shah’s dependence on U.S. support was intensified and deepened. Moreover, having brought the shah back to power, the U.S. had a profound interest in making sure that his regime was stable and that he must remain on the throne. Therefore he was given not only moral and diplomatic support, but financial and other forms of aid as well.

From 1953 to the late 1960s: In 1964 the U.S. pressured a reluctant shah and a very reluctant parliament and government cabinet to sign the SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement), which stations troops that are intended to protect American troops or military advisors in other countries from the terrible local courts. So this guarantees a cover to American military personnel in Iran. Since this act extends diplomatic immunity to military personnel serving in a foreign country. At that time, Ayatollah Khomeini was expelled from the country as a result of his very public opposition to the Status of Forces bill, which he called an agreement for the enslavement of Iran.

From 1973-1979: As the Shah’s regime grew more stable and powerful due to the notable increase in the oil revenues. The Shah tried to decrease Iran’s dependence on the US, which he managed to gradually achieve. What helped him more was the fact that the U.S. was preoccupied with Vietnam. President Richard Nixon’s doctrine led to the twin-pillars policy; 44

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which was the idea that the regional powers that are allies with the U.S should take responsibility for the regional security and that both Iran and Saudi Arabia were responsible to keep things stable in the Persian Gulf. Consequently the Shah welcomed this policy because it bolstered his role and importance in the region. 28 From 1979-2012: In 1979 an angry mob of about 300 to 500 students who named themselves the Imam's Disciples held 52-66 U.S citizens and diplomats as hostages in the American Embassy in Tehran. They did release women and African-Americans after a very short time, but the rest of the hostages remained imprisoned for 444 days. Jimmy Carter’s plan to release the hostages failed, and it was reported at the time that Ronald Reagan has held a secret meeting with some Iranian officials to negotiate and arrange the hostages’ release. After that during Reagan’s inauguration, the hostages were released. Moreover, during his administration, the Iran-Contra Affair took place; which was a deal to release the American hostages, seized by Hezbollah that were loyal to Khomeini in Lebanon, in return the U.S sold weapons to Iran and obtained a revenue which was estimated to be millions of dollars. This amount of money was to be transferred to the right-wing guerrillas in Nicaragua known as the contras; which were the armed opponents of Nicaragua's Junta.

In 2012, the situation continued to escalate as Iran resumed its threats to close Hormuz Strait through which a large portion of the world's oil is shipped. This was a very debatable issue, as it was believed that these threats were nothing more than words because Iran would be reducing its own oil exports. On the other hand, some U.S military officials believed that Iran did have the capability to block the strait, since its forces are well equipped along its coast. Moreover, the relations were further strained after Iran sentenced a former U.S marine to death after convicting him of working as a CIA spy. 29 Iran is prepared to launch missiles at U.S bases throughout the Gulf within minutes of an attack targeting it. Iran’s missiles have been aimed at 35 U.S military bases in the Gulf, among these bases is the navy's Bahrain-based 5th fleet that is 120 miles from the Iranian coast, plus the fact

28

Bakhash, Shaul. "The U.S. and Iran in Historical Perspective - FPRI." Foreign Policy Research Institute ·. http://www.fpri.org/footnotes/1426.200909.bakhash.usiranhistorical.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

"Iran Hostage Crisis." U-S history. . (accessed February 22, 2013).

"Iran-Contra Affair." United States American History. http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1889.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

29

" US intensifies pressure on Iran over Strait of Hormuz threat | World news | guardian.co.uk ." Latest US news, world news, sport and comment from the Guardian | guardiannews.com | The Guardian . http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/13/us-intensifies-pressure-iran-strait-hormuz (accessed February 22, 2013).

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that Israel is about 600 miles away from Iran, prompted the U.S increase its military presence in the Gulf.30 To make things worse, the U.S director of national intelligence James Clapper’s statement about an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington last year.

While the Iranians accused the U.S and Israel of assassinating Iranian scientists after four of them were killed over the past two years. These were scientists affiliated with the country's nuclear and missile programs. Among them was Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan the Iranian nuclear scientist. This series of killings increased the tension that was already dangerously high. 31

2. Israeli –Iranian relations: As a result of the Shah’s reliance on the U.S support, Iran and Israel’s foreign policies were closely aligned. This created a somewhat isolated situation for the Shah especially among the changes that were taking place. The growing tensions with the Soviet Union, as well as the rise of nationalist governments in the Middle East and Asia, also, the fall of the tyrant monarchies, and the revolutions that were taking place and changing the regimes in Egypt, Iraq and Syria.

Plus the great nations of Asia, India, China, and Indonesia were leading a non-aligned movement. This led the Shah to seek a foreign policy that would protect his post but it didn’t satisfy the dominant political mood in his country.

During this period, the Shah maintained very close relations with Israel, because according to his own calculations this was where Iranian interest lay. On the other hand, Arab regimes’ alliance with the Soviet Union, applying the age old strategy that says; that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.32 Nowadays, Israelis view almost every regional threat through the prism of Iran. This change in perception was due to Iran’s expansion of its missile capabilities and nuclear advances, as well as Israel’s views about the growing Iranian regional influence as a violation of its interests and also threatening to stability in areas bordering Israel. The Israeli leaders’ main concerns revolve around Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons, since this will strongly influence 30

" Iran 'ready to fire missiles at US bases' | World news | The Guardian ." Latest US news, world news, sport and comment from the Guardian | guardiannews.com | The Guardian . http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/04/iran-ready-missiles-us-bases (accessed February 22, 2013).

31 " Iran accuses US and Britain of role in killing of nuclear scientist | World news | guardian.co.uk ." Latest US news, world news, sport and comment from the Guardian | guardiannews.com | The Guardian . http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/14/iran-accuses-us-britain-scientist (accessed February 22, 2013).

Norton, Richard. "Iran and the US: from words to war." guardian . http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/jan/31/iran-us-intelligence-war> (accessed February 23, 2013).

32 Bakhash, Shaul. "The U.S. and Iran in Historical Perspective - FPRI." Foreign Policy Research Institute ·. http://www.fpri.org/footnotes/1426.200909.bakhash.usiranhistorical.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

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both the Israeli and American military and political maneuverability in the region. Furthermore, the rise of Iranian fundamentalists has elevated Iranian hostility towards Israel. This was due to the Iranian political system that changed as a result of the revolution with the rise of the fundamentalists under Ahmadinejad.

In 2005, this regime setting has produced a sense of hostility that wasn’t evident since the beginning of the revolution. Moreover, the Middle East’s geopolitical transformation over the last decade has increased the rivalry. With the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, and in 2006, war between Hezbollah and Israel in which Iranian arms and tactic used, Iran began to see itself as the Middle East’s dominant power. Then the Arab uprisings came with new and profound concerns for Israel. Despite the fact that the turmoil has also created some new vulnerabilities and limitations for Iranian influence. But these changes had enhanced Israeli fears of continued Iranian penetration into these pivotal regions close to their home, particularly Gaza and Lebanon along with the Iranian view of the U.S as a declining power. 33

3. Iran’s Major Allies: A. Russian-Iranian relations: Generally speaking, Russia maintains strong economic and military relations with Iran. It has contributed in building Iran's first nuclear plant at Bushehr and publicly supported Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology, not to mention that Moscow opposed additional sanctions imposed by the EU and the U.S. For the past twenty years, Russia has been a major supplier of modern arms to Iran. In 2007, Russia signed a contract to deliver sophisticated anti-aircraft missile systems to Iran.34 One of the reasons for the relations between the two countries is the changeable US foreign policy priorities. Another decisive reason is Russia need of access to the oil-rich Caspian Sea, since it is striving to become the main and key player in the region by tying its fortunes to the oil and gas sector, and to preserve its domestic interests on the international agenda. On the Iranian side Iran would gain greater shares in the Caspian oilfields if it cooperated with Russia. 35 

Economic relations: Despite the fact that during 2010, Russia voted in favor of sanctions against Iran at the UN Security Council. Both countries remained engaged diplomatically and economically. Earlier in 2012, both countries have switched their trade currencies into their domestic Rial and Rouble currencies instead of U.S dollars. This action followed a new set of U.S sanctions against Iran. In 2011, Iran’s share in Russia's trade

33

"national defense research institute." Rand, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2011/RAND_MG1143.pdf>. (accessed February 23, 2013).

34 “Iran and Russia: Uneasy Relations”. Réalité, <http://www.realiteeu.org/site/apps/nlnet/content3.aspx?c=9dJBLLNkGiF&b=2315291&ct=9227835>.(accessed February 23,2013).

35

"A New Shift in Iran-Russia Relations ." worldpress. http:// (accessed February 23, 2013).

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stood at 0.5 %, but at the moment their annual bilateral trade is worth almost $4 billion, but both countries have the potential to increase that figure to $8 billion. 36

B. Sino–Iranian Relations: China supports Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear technology, and calls for negotiations and talks over the issue. Since it has been critical of sanctions on Iran, especially the unilateral ones which it views as pointless, China has been accused by the U.S and European countries of going around the sanctions against Iran by selling dual-use metals that could be used to manufacture advanced weaponry. China managed to do this by selling Iran metals in forms not included under sanctions. For example: China could legally provide Iran with tungsten copper in powder form but not in ingot form. China and Iran are building and developing political relationships based on economic and regional cooperation, with Iran being very supportive of China’s foreign policy goals like its refusal to an independent Taiwan. 37 

Economic relations: Even though the U.S and other Western countries have increased the economic sanctions against Iran in an attempt to force it to reconsider its nuclear program. China is Iran’s biggest trading partner. Thus, it continued to strengthen its ties with the Islamic Republic. The Iranian oil has been increasingly flowing into China, not to mention that Iranian crude makes up over 10 % of China’s oil consumption. In fact, the sanctions imposed on Iran may have tightened the relations between China and Iran, in a statement published by the Chinese foreign ministry it said:”China opposes any country imposing unilateral sanctions on another country pursuant to its domestic law”.

Also China views its relations with Iran as part of a greater policy designed to counterattack the American dominance in the Middle East. It is good to mention that at the moment China is investing $1 billion to improve Iran’s infrastructure and a Chinese conglomerate has already expanded Tehran’s underground railway system, under a contract worth $328 million.38

C. North Korean-Iranian relations: Iran and North Korea enjoy high-level relations, and these relations have increasingly become friendly. In July 2012 an Iranian delegation visited North Korea for the purpose of political negotiations and consultations on international developments ended with both sides adopting a shared stance against Western imperialism. Since both of them share the same struggle under the sanctions imposed for their nuclear activities. Also, Iran is considered as a major player in North Korea's economy which is extremely alerting to UN and U.S. officials. Furthermore, it was 36

"UPDATE 1-Iran-Russia trade in domestic currencies -Iran envoy." reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/20/russia-iran-currency-idUSL6E8CK0Y720120120 (accessed February 23, 2013).

Tehran Times. "Iran, Russia seek ways to boost trade, industrial ties." payvand. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

Kozhanov, Nikolay. "Russia's relations with Iran ,dialogue without commitment ." washingtoninstitute. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

37 Farrar-Wellman, Ariel. "China-Iran Foreign Relations | IranTracker." IranTracker. http://www.irantracker.org/foreign-relations/china-iran-foreign-relations (accessed February 23, 2013).

38 "Iran and China The latest invasion." economist. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

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reported that North Korea and Iran have repeatedly exchanged ballistic missile related items which violated U.N. sanctions, and these close relations might cripple the effect of the sanctions imposed on Iran and North Korea.39

D. Syrian-Iranian relations: Syria and Iran are strategic allies and have strong relations. This was noticed in Iran’s national Security Council secretary Saeed Jalili’s visit to president Alassad in Damascus in which he promised Iran’s continuous support against the Syrian opposition. Together, they call themselves the Axis of resistance against foreign interference. This is because the Syrian crisis represents a threat to Iran’s interests in the region and its desire to maintain balance against countries that support the opposition in Syria which include the U.S, Europe, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar on one side while the opposing bloc includes China and Russia along with Iran.40

4. Gulf Countries-Iranian relations: A. Saudi Arabian-Iranian relations: The dispute between Iran and Saudi Arabia stems from the distrust that resides between Shiite, Sunnis and Persians and Arabs. The rivalry runs deep because Saudi Arabia perceives itself as distinguished, superior as well as the cradle of Islam and the Arabic language. Moreover, there are hard-core Sunnis who consider Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Muslim world and that Shittes are heretics. This, in some measure explains the Islamization of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy and the desire to implement the Sunni agenda. As Saudi Arabia’s actions to help Bahrain’s Sunni government maintain and strengthen its authority in the face of protests, is in a way a message to Saudi Arabia’s own Shiitte population. Another issue is oil; Saudi Arabia and Iran have had slightly different ideas regarding the most suitable world oil price in the past. Iran preferred the price of oil to remain high as possible, while Saudi Arabia previously favored a slightly lower price. This though is starting to change because of Saudi Arabia’s precautions of the potential unrest in the region.

So Saudi Arabia now is in need of higher price of oil to pay for its new commitments and balance the budget as well. 41

B. Bahraini –Iranian relations: Around 60 to 70 % of the Bahraini population is Shiite, and most of them are Arabs, while only small percentage of them is ethnically Persian. Consequently, the Bahraini Sunni rulers tend to perceive Iran with deep suspicion, but at the same time Bahrain is trying to maintain balance in terms of its relation with Iran by maintaining some channels open. Because any tensions or unrest in Bahrain threaten the 39

Tsai, Vivian . "North Korea And Iran, Two-Thirds Of George W. Bush's 'Axis of Evil,' To Meet In Tehran At NAM Summit." ibitimes. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

40 Maroney, Sean. "Iran Sees Syria as Priority Issue ." voanews. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

41 Boucek,, Christopher, and Karim Sadjadpour. "Rivals.Iran vs.Saudi Arabia." carnegieendowment. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

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U.S naval bases that have been expanded, as the navy has taken over the Mina Salman port which transferred all commercial operations to the new Khalifa bin Salman port. Moreover, one of the minor naval stations in the Persian Gulf was turned into one of the most pivotal bases for the US since it began its war on terrorism. The presence of the United Stated maintains some guarantee to Bahrain against Saudi Arabia to the west and Iran to the east.42

C. Iraqi-Iranian relations: Iran seeks to ensure that Iraq can never again pose a threat to it, whether with or without the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq. It is believed that Iran’s intentions overreach achieving Iraq’s neutrality. Rather, it wants to use Iraq as a means to achieve its broader regional policy goals and to help it stand against the international criticism of Iran’s nuclear program.

It’s also believed that Iran perceives Iraq as a provider of significant investment opportunities and a growing market for Iranian products, and that Iran wants the stability in Iraq. The domestic unrest that has taken place in Iran after the presidential elections in 2009, has given Iran another reason to exercise influence in Iraq to try to suppress Iranian dissidents located over the border inside Iraq. Besides that Iran has many objectives to be achieved in Iraq, through several strategies such as supporting pro-Iranian factions and armed militias and attempting to influence Iraqi political leaders and faction leaders and building economic ties .What raises American concerns is Iran’s support for Shiite factions in Iraq, because this hinders and continuously poses a threat to the U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq.43

D. United Arab Emirates –Iranian relations: The UAE and Iran enjoy deep economic ties that go way back and Dubai has been a major centre for trade with Iran. According to some Data in 2011, the re-export business between the two countries, as goods sent to the UAE for on-shipment to Iran, and Iranian goods sent to the UAE for on-shipment to other countries totaled $8.7 billion. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has estimated the sanctions could cost the UAE as much as 0.7 % of gross domestic product if trade halted completely.44 On the other hand the rivalry between the two countries over the three islands; Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb is continuous and ongoing .This is due to the geostrategic interests in the Middle East, as controlling these islands guarantee the hegemony on the sea-lanes entering and exiting the gulf. 45

42

"US embassy cables: Bahrain's relations with Iran." guardian. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

Dunnigan, James. "U.S. Base In Bahrain In Danger." strategypage. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

43 Katzman, Kenneth. "Iran-Iraq relations." CRS. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

44 "UAE says sanctions hurting trade with Iran." reuters. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

45 " Will UAE and Iran resolve the three islands dispute? - Opinion - Al Jazeera English." Al Jazeera English - Live US, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Sports, Weather & Business News. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/05/20125611107172123.html (accessed March 18, 2013).

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5. Latin American–Iranian Relations: A. Venezuela: In the past, Iran and Venezuela have had minor bilateral cooperation, but just before 2000, both countries states began to show increasingly antiAmerican sentiments. Following the election of President Ahmadinejad in 2005, the alliance between Caracas and Tehran developed into something more personal with regard to the U.S. At the Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Cuba in 2006, the Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez expressed that he would move to defend Iran from any threat of invasion and not long after, Ahmadinejad publicly stated that he would back Venezuela’s bid for a seat in the UN Security Council. Similarly, in 2007 the two leaders affirmed that they were growing stronger as an axis of unity against the U.S.46 Chavez has officially stated that Iran has a legitimate right to possess nuclear program and that Venezuela supports Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear technology. This is supported by evidence delivered in a report based on information gathered by Israeli and foreign military and diplomatic sources around the world, which claims that Venezuela has in fact been supplying Iran with uranium to be used in its nuclear program. It also concluded that Chavez is trying to undermine the U.S by supporting Iran.47 

Economic relations: Iranian investments in Venezuela have witnessed growth. The two countries have signed various memorandums of understanding in the fields of technology development, banking, finance, oil and gas exploration and refining. In April 2008, the two countries also signed a Memorandum of Understanding affirming full military support and cooperation. While in August it was reported that Iranian military advisers have been working with Venezuelan troops.48Now, the world might witness a change in the Venezuelan –Iranian relations, after the death of Hugo Chavez.

Accordingly the U.S might also reorient its policies towards Venezuela.

B. Cuba: Cuba is a country that, for long, took on an anti American policy. Therefore Cuba and Iran enjoy both bilateral and multilateral cooperation through the Non-Aligned Movement. In a June 2008 memorandum of understanding, Ahmadinejad explained that the two countries express their continued support for each other on the international scene. As Cuba has asserted their support for Iran’s nuclear program and has defended Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear 46

Farrar-Wellman, Ariel. "Venezuela-Iran Foreign Relations." IranTracker. <. http://www.irantracker.org/foreignrelations/venezuela-iran-foreign-relations>. (accessed February 23, 2013).

47 "Israel: Venezuela, Bolivia Supplying Iran With Uranium for Nuclear Program | Fox News." Fox News - Breaking News Updates | Latest News Headlines | Photos & News Videos. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,521731,00.html#ixzz2A4hx4972 (accessed February 23, 2013).

48

Morganthau,Robert M,’’the emerging axis if Iran and Venzuela”.businees news and financial news-wall street journal, <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203440104574400792 (accessed February 23, 2013)

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technology in the face of UN sanctions.49 Another concern raised by the U.S was, the historic and the friendly relations between the two countries that fight on the same front, these bilateral relations pose a threat to the U.S national security. 50

6. Iran’s relations with the Islamic groups: A. Hezbollah:

In a way, Iran benefited from the exclusion of the Shiite community in the mostly Sunni-Maronite coalitions in Lebanon which in turn added fuel to sectarian hostility. Due to the lack of Shiite confidence in the state, this is where Iran stepped in and sought close relations with Shiite community in Lebanon as well as Iran was trying to export its Islamic revolution’s doctrine . Also, Israel‘s 1982 invasion of South Lebanon facilitated a more prominent Iranian role in Lebanon, and expanded Tehran‘s influence within the country. The invasion and de facto occupation of the south that followed created great hostility towards Israel and the Maronite-dominated government. It also gave Iran increased influence over Syria and helped reverse the damaging effects of Iraq‘s invasion of Iran. As Iran provides moral, ideological, political, economic and military support to Hezbollah as a means of maintaining a foothold on Israel‘s northern side. This makes Iranian assistance to Hezbollah equivalent to U.S military support for Israel which could create a sort of balance in the region, as Iran’s reliance on Hezbollah adds to it a source of great regional position.51

B. Al-Qaeda: The relationship between al-Qaeda and Iran was mainly combative, controlled by indirect negotiations over the release of Jihadis and their families detained in Iran. As it would be said that that their relations have become less adverse or even cooperative at times, but Iran's Shiite Muslim rulers deny cooperating with al Qaeda and the Iranian officials refer to al Qaeda as a terrorist group. Also the Iranian security forces regularly report the arrest of al Qaeda members. On the other hand, the west believes that AlQaeda considered Iran as an alternative base for its activities after the U.S. attacked its safe harbors in Afghanistan in late 2001. Reportedly Tehran freed some al Qaeda detainees in response to threats from AlQaeda.52

C. Taliban: Iran has recognized that Taliban have remarkable flexibility and that they are necessary components of the Afghan society that cannot be dismissed. It is believed that the Afghan President Hamid Karzai, the U.S, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have all opened bridges of communications with Taliban and that’s why Iran is determined not to become marginalized.

49

Farrar-Wellman, Ariel. "Cuba-Iran foreign relations." irantracker. (accessed February 23, 2013).

"US enemies Iran's Ahmadinejad and Cuba's Castro cosy up in Cuba | Mail Online." Home | Mail Online. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2086236/US-enemies-Irans-Ahmadinejad-Cubas-Castro-cosy-Cuba.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

51 H. Cordesman, Anthony. "U.S. AND IRANIAN STRATEGIC COMPETITION: The Proxy Cold War in the Levant, Egypt and Jordan." Csis. http://csis.org/files/publication/111026_US_IranStratCompLevant_Chapt .(accessed February 23,2013) 52 Hosenball, Mark. "Documents show tense al Qaeda-Iran relationship." reuters. <http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/03/us-usa-binladen-documents-iran-idUSBRE8421EG20120503>. (accessed February 23, 2013).

50

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Iran's views of Taliban have changed considerably since 2001. Before Iran did not recognize the Taliban government and considered them as a major security threat that was created by Pakistan's Inter-service intelligence with generous financial support from Saudi Arabia partly, for the purpose of spreading Wahhabism and destroying Iran’s position.

When the Taliban arose to power in the 1990s, Iran along with India and Russia provided major support to the Northern Alliance, which was the primary opposition force to Taliban’s rule.

Also, Iran contributed to dismantling the Taliban regime and to establishing a new government in Kabul in 2001. Today, the Taliban have evolved into an armed organization to be reckoned with fighting the U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan. So the strategic interests of Tehran and Taliban have coincided today as each independent of the other and for different reasons, oppose the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan, and demand their immediate and unconditional withdrawal.53

D. Hamas: Though Iran is supporting AlAssad’s brutal regime, Hamas doesn’t mind fostering its relations with Iran, as these relations are based on common interest which is curbing Israel’s power and influence. 54 Ismail Haniya a senior political leader of Hamas government in Gaza visited Iran in 2012. The visit was likely to antagonize the Israeli government which believes that Hamas and Iran want to destroy it. The Israelis perceive the relation between Hamas and Iran as one that fosters extremist goals, and that Hamas is Iran’s proxy.55

The Future Scenarios of the U.S-Iranian relations: Firstly, Iran is strangled by the economic sanctions and the arms embargo imposed upon it. Also, it is facing Economic recessions, its oil exports are threatened and jeopardized, and at the same time it is insisting on defying the international community and the international calls for more cooperation with the IAEA, to refute the world’s suspicions about the nature of its nuclear activities, and how the world’s reactions would be, if the provocations kept ongoing.

Secondly, since the international community does not mind Iran’s right to use its nuclear program for peaceful purposes in the fields of electricity and medicine, so what’s required now is the evidence and the solid proofs of this, and how Iran is going to overcome the major impact of the sanctions.

Thirdly, the issue of human rights violations in Iran, and how it doesn’t meet the criteria of being a well democratic country , this is accompanied by the Iranian presidential elections in 2013, that might carry glimpse of hope towards change in Iran’s internal and foreign policies.

53

Milani, Mohsen . "Iran's Alleged Ties to the Taliban." pbs. <http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/08/irans-alleged-ties-to-the-taliban.htm (accessed February 23,2013) 54 "Hamas: Relations with Iran Important to Fight Israel." israelnationalnews. . (accessed February 23, 2012).

55 Akram, Fares, and Isabel Kershner. "Hamas Premier Visits Iran in Sign of Strong Relations." nytimes. . (accessed February 23, 2013).

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Fourthly, Iran’s major allies and how this matter is very changeable according to the interests and goals, Syria is at stake if Al-Assad is toppled. Iran will be in critical situation, losing one of the most important allies in the Middle East region. This is besides the unrest in Iraq and Bahrain and how Iran is taking advantage and developing its strategies to accomplish its objectives in the region.

Eventually, the U.S, Iran and Israel are in the forefront of the game and they have to play it, but who will win? And who will lose?

 The options that are available on the table range from: 1.The proposal of direct talks between the countries involved in exerting efficient efforts and suggesting effective techniques to deal with Iran’s nuclear program as a way to end the controversy of the nuclear issue which is considered as a piece of the puzzle of the existing disputed issues.

2. The sanctions and the extent of its effectiveness as a pressure card on Iran and a deterrent factor for Iran to halt its uranium enrichment program. As the sanctions were among many other reasons that caused the deteriorated economic situations in Iran, thus causing massive unrest among its people. On the other hand Iran has major allies as; China that assist it in circumventing the sanctions and manipulating them.

3. The sanctions aren’t imposed only by the U.S, but also by the EU, and the U.S practices major influence on its allies and the oil sales are greatly affected and recessing as well.

4. The U.S Ratification of the CTBT, which can play a significant role in drawing an example of a country that is pursuing a world free of nuclear weapons, thus Iran might follow in its footsteps.

5. The aggressive measures against Iran whether unilateral or multilateral, but at the same time, it could bring about uncalculated consequences, especially the U.S is facing financial and economic problems as well.

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2nd Topic

B

urma……The Hidden gem

Introduction: Burma now constitutes a major significance on the international political agenda; hence the international media directed their focus to this country especially after the latest incidents that took place there. Social Media presented one side of what was happening and even fake pictures were being spread, here lie the roots and origins of the story.

Burma is also known as Myanmar and its long form is “Union of Burma”. The name Burma is derived from the short form name Myanma Naingngandaw, since 1989 the military authorities in Burma have promoted and propagandized the name Myanmar as the official name for the state, but this decision was not approved by the legislative body. Moreover, the U.S Government recognizes it as Burma, a sovereign state in Southeast Asia bordered by India, Bangladesh, China, Laos and Thailand. Its Current Capital is Naypyidaw.56

56

"Geography and Map of Burma (Myanmar)." Geography Home Page - Geography at About.com. http://geography.about.com/library/cia/blcburma.htm (accessed February 15, 2013).

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Glimpse of Burma’s History: “Study the past, if you would define the future” Confucius, Chinese politician, editor and teacher.

1. The Japanese Occupation: During 1885-86 Burma became a province of British India after the British forces captured the city of Mandalay in a brief battle, following that in 1937 Britain separated Burma from India and turned the country into a British crown colony. During World War II (1939-1945) the Japanese forces invaded and occupied Burma with the help of the Japanese-trained Burma Independence Army , which assisted Japan in order to expel the British but later on transformed itself into the AFPFL (Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League) and resisted Japanese rule. By 1945 Britain had liberated Burma from the Japanese occupation with the assistance of the AFPFL led

by Aung San, the founder of the modern Burmese army. 57

2. Burma’s independence: Burma finally gained its independence in 1948 with U Nu as Prime Minister who later joined forces with Egypt’s Nasser, India’s Nehru, Yugoslavia’s Tito and Indonesia’s Sukarno to form the Movement of Non-Aligned States; also he was one of the co-founders of the AFPFL along with Aung San. U Nu, a leading nationalist and political figure was a qualified and highly respectable statesman but his government witnessed some communist, ethnic –minority insurgency and economic stagnation due to the drop in rice exports which were considered to be a main source of Burma’s foreign exchange as it was a part of his government’s plan to improve and elevate the people’s living standards and to nationalize Burma’s lands under “The land nationalization act”. In 1952 and 1956 his party retained power after winning the general elections but in 1958 he resigned his post as the prime minister and a caretaker government “temporary government “ was formed by Gen Ne Win the army chief of staff general. In 1960 U Nu’s party won a decisive victory in the national elections and he became the prime minister but his promotion

57

"BBC News - Burma profile - Timeline ." BBC - Homepage. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific12992883 (accessed February 15, 2013).

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of Buddhism enraged the military. Therefore in 1962 Gen Ne Win orchestrated a coup d’état, thus establishing a military government and U Nu was put in prison. 58

3. Military-led State: Gen Ne Win abolished the federal system, set aside Burma’s constitution, promoted socialism through nationalizing the economy and also formed a single-party state in which independent newspapers were banned and many of the political leaders were imprisoned, and even when Rangon University students protested he blew up the building leaving dozens of them killed. As a result of his policies he led the country into 26 years of isolation from the outside world and in 1978 he withdrew from the non-aligned movement. The deteriorated economic situation with the country being on the verge of bankruptcy, triggered anti-government riots led by university students and Buddhist Monks in the cities of Rangoon and Mandalay, but were suppressed by the government resulting in thousands of people killed. Then, in 1988, Gen Ne Win resigned after selecting a military junta “military-led government “to succeed him which was known as SLORC (State Law and Order Restoration Council). It imposed martial law in 1989, arrested thousands of activists and changed the name of Rangon city to Yangon which wasn’t approved by the opposition groups; eventually Aung San Suu Kyi, a Burmese oppositionist, was put under house arrest. 59 In 1990 the multi-party elections were held and the NLD (National League for democracy) which was considered as the main opposition party led by Aung San Suu Kyi, although she wasn’t allowed to participate in the elections, she won by a landslide victory but the SLORC which was later changed to SPDC (State peace and development council ) ignored the results.60

4. Aung San Suu Kyi : In 1995 Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest, but faced some restrictions on travelling. In 2000 she was put under house arrest again for her several attempts to hold crucial political meetings in other parts of the country, and then in 2002 once again she was released but this time she was free to travel around the country. In 2003 there was an attempt by the government to assassinate her and many of her supporters were brutally beaten but was later on announced that it was a riot between two political parties instigated by Aung’s party which led to her detention, thus being put under house arrest for the third time but with much 58

"U Nu (prime minister of Myanmar) -- Britannica Online Encyclopedia." Britannica Online Encyclopedia. http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/421460/U-Nu (accessed February 15, 2013).

59 Smith, Martin . "General Ne Win Burmese military strongman whose increasingly obtuse dictatorship reduced his country to poverty." guardian, December 6, 2002, sec. news-obituaries. democratic rule Military rule Sources: BBC, Thai Burma Border. "Burmese history." fromburmatonewyork. http://www.fromburmatonewyork.com/timeline2.swf (accessed February 15, 2013).

60 "Burma democratic concern ." bdcburma. http://www.bdcburma.org/1990Details.asp?Id=5 (accessed February 15, 2013).

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stricter and harsher conditions; this time her house arrest was extended from 2004 till 2010.

Finally on the 13 th of November 2010 she was released after spending 15 of the last 21 years under house arrest. 61

The Political system and the government, the nominal democracy: Burma is supposed to be witnessing democracy, is the current government representing the people’s will? Or is it still influenced by the military?

Aung San Suu Kyi

Thein Sein

1. Burma’s 2008 Constitution: To show cooperation and response to the international criticisms against the government’s crackdown on the protests and human rights violations, the SPDC decided to hold a national referendum on a new constitution and set the 10 th of May 2008 as the date for this referendum which was to be followed by the parliamentary elections two years later, but one week before the referendum Cyclone Nargis hit Burma leaving thousands of people either dead or missing. Despite the fact that this wasn’t the appropriate time to hold the referendum, as many people were not able to cast their votes, the military regime insisted on initiating the process ignoring the local and international calls for postponing it in order to ascertain the integrity of the referendum. Later on it was announced that the new constitution passed by an overwhelming majority; this was a result of the government’s intimidation of the people, as well as the lack of time to read or discuss the draft, and this was perceived by Amnesty international as a tool used by the government to get impunity for past and future violations and to legitimize its continuing human rights abuses with this constitution that enables the

61

Library, CNN. "Aung San Suu Kyi Fast Facts - CNN.com." CNN.com International - Breaking, World, Business, Sports, Entertainment and Video News. http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/18/world/asia/aung-san-suu-kyi-fastfacts (accessed February 16, 2013). " A biography of Aung San Suu Kyi - About Burma - Burma Campaign UK." Burma Campaign UK - Home Page. http://www.burmacampaign.org.uk/index.php/burma/about-burma/about-burma/a-biography-of-aung-san-suukyi (accessed February 16, 2013).

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military to dominate the government and protect its interests, in other words this flawed draft was identical to other drafts, presented in the 1990s. 62

2. The Parliamentary elections in 2010: Burma’s first parliamentary elections in 20 years were held for the seats of both chambers; the upper house and the lower house in which many different political parties participated. Among them were the military-backed USDP (Union Solidarity and Development Party) and a faction that splintered from the NLD due to disagreements between them and the NLD executive committee decision not to re-register as a political party and run in the elections.

During the elections many opposition parties had to deal with the government’s harassment and had limited access to the media, despite the international observers’ criticism and complaints about the unfair imposed elections law. The results showed that the USDP won with a landslide victory therefore occupying the majority of seats in both chambers. 63

3. The 2012 Burmese by-elections: The elections were held to fill 46 vacant parliamentary seats in Burma’s national parliament in which 17 political parties took place, among them was the NLD as well as the USDP; this was considered as a step forward in Burma’s history as it was to some extent free and fair by-elections that brought opposition parties into parliament and among them was Aung San Suu Kyi’s party that won with a landslide victory making it the main opposition party in the parliament. Consequently this marked a start of a new era that could prompt the west to ease sanctions on Burma. 64

4. The Current regime Structure: Burma is now considered to be a nominally civilian government, with Thein Sein as the president that came to power in 2011 from the USDP; this took place after the resignation of

62

international center for transitional justice. "Impunity Prolonged: Burma and its 2008 Constitution." ICTJMyanmar-Impunity-Constitution-2009. http://ictj.org/sites/default/files/ICTJ-Myanmar-Impunity-Constitution2009-English.pdf (accessed February 15, 2013).

Ghai, Yash . "The 2008 Myanmar Constitution: Analysis and Assessment Yash Ghai Professor Emeritus, University of Hong Kong Ghai is now the head of the UNDP Constitution Advisory Support Unit, Nepal and the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for human rights in Cambodia i." burmalibrary.org/docs6/. http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs6/2008_Myanmar_constitution--analysis_and_assessment-Yash_Ghai.pdf (accessed February 15, 2013).

63 F. Martin, Michael, and Derek E. Mix. "U.S. Policy Towards Burma: Issues for the 112th Congress." hsdl. https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=718905 (accessed February 16, 2013).

Kaung , Ba. "Burmese Democracy Splinter Group Registers." asia sentinel, May 28, 2010, sec. politics.

64 F.Martin, Michael . "Burma’s April Parliamentary By-Elections." FAS. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42438.pdf (accessed February 16, 2013).

Nelson, Dean. "Burma elections: President Thein Sein happy with result." telegragh, April 3, 2012, sec. Asia.

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the former president Than Shwe 65 accordingly an elected parliament convened with many lawmakers to choose Burma’s first civilian president after being torn under the gears of military dictatorship that orchestrated the 1962 Coup d’état, therefore ,this was considered as a turning point to end the entrenched military influence over politics .66

5. The reforms in Burma: Burma is considered as one of the world’s most corrupt countries and this is according to the 2012 CPI (Corruption perception Index) which ranked Burma as the 172 nd in the world in terms of corruption which is roughly very close to the most corrupt countries in the world like Afghanistan, Sudan, North Korea and Somalia. 67 On the other hand some major political, economic and administrative reforms slightly took place; among these reforms were the establishment of the national human rights commission, the amnesties of 200 political prisoners, issuing new labor laws that allow labor unions with a minimum number of 30 as well as allowing strikes if a notice period is given beforehand, easing the media censorship and regulations of currency practices in addition to a reconciliation with Aung san Suu Kyi which persuaded some Western countries to suspend sanctions imposed on the country, and eventually led to lifting all the sanctions imposed by Australia. This was besides Thein Sein’s pledges that the state’s role in economic sectors would be cut down and more foreign aid and expertise would be encouraged. 68

The Economic Status of Burma, the invisible diamonds: Burma possess some vital goods, will it be able to make use of them? Or will they be impeded by the sanctions?

Firstly, Burma is a country that is rich in its natural resources but with high levels of poverty due to the corruption manifested in the pervasive government control with the natural resources concentrated in the hands of an elite group of military leaders and business associates, leading to inefficient economic policies. This is in addition to the imposed economic sanctions by the western countries as U.S, EU and Canada, and along with Burma’s few number of banks which means that its financial system is not ready to integrate with the global economy due to its

65

"President Thein Sein of Myanmar." World Diplomacy - Your source of information for Geography, Economics, Politics and History.. http://www.worlddiplomacy.org/Countries/Myanmar/LeaderMya/LeaderMya1.html (accessed February 16, 2013).

66 Katyal, Sugita , and Nick Macfie. "Timeline: Myanmar's reforms under civilian government." Reuters, October 14, 2011.

67 "2012 Corruption Perceptions Index -- Results." Corruption Perceptions Index - 2012. http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2012/results/ (accessed February 16, 2013).

68 BBC, "Burma law to allow labour unions and strikes," October 14, 2011, sec. Asia.

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cash-based system used in most of the economic activities. 69 The result of these poor policies was approximately 32% of the population living in poverty, thus making Burma the poorest country in Southeast Asia, even the privatization policies didnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t fix the situation on the contrary it widened the gap between the elites and the public moreover caused fiscal deficits and unpredictable inflation. 70 GDP (Growth Domestic Product) real growth rate Unemployment rate Budget

6.2 % (est 2012) 5.4 % (est 2012) revenues $2.234 billion (est 2012) expenditures $ 4.414 billion (est 2012) 3.1 % (est 2012) $ 5.448 billion (est 2012)

Inflation rate External debt

Amount Commodities

Partners (est 2012)

Exports $ 8.529 billion (est 2012) Natural gas-wood products -rice-jades-gems Thailand China India Japan

36.7% 18.8 % 14.1% 6.6 %

Imports $ 7.137 billion (est 2012) Fabric-petroleum productscrude oil-food productsfertilizers China 38.8 % Thailand 22.6 % Singapore 9.7 % South Korea 5.4 %

1. Illicit Economy in Burma: Burma is party to all three major United Nations international drug control treaties, one on narcotic drugs, the second on Psychotropic substances and the third against the illicit traffic in narcotic drugs and Psychotropic substances. There was a Burmese official Strategy to combat and uproot all the production and trafficking of illicit drugs by 2014, but this required a long road to accomplish this goal as in 2007 Burma was included on the list of the major illicit drug producing countries. Also, Burma is among the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s top producers of heroin and opium which constitute a large percentage of its exports. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the second largest opium supplier in the world as well as being a source of heroin for the U.S, the opium poppy is mainly cultivated in 69

"Behind the New Burma | Globalization101." Globalization101.org | globalization | globalisation | what is globalization | globalization dilemmas | globalization debates | pros cons globalization | global issues | international relations | international issues. http://www.globalization101.org/behind-the-new-burma/ (accessed February 16, 2013).

70 CIA. "the world factbook-Burma." Central intelligence agency. "theworldfactbook-Burma." CIA.N.p., 4 Oct. 2012.

Web. 24 Oct. 2012. . (accessed February 16, 2013).

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Burmaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Shan State from 2003-2007 thus these activities led to the spread of the HIV and AIDS in the region, moreover the smuggling of illicit drugs from Burma to Thailand is considered as one of the sources of the tensions between the two countries because of Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s war on drugs.71

2. Economic agreements: Burma has signed Free trade agreements with the following countries; Israel, India, Sri Lanka, Korea, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Lao and Philippines 72. On the other hand a future source of possible economic growth for Burma is the ASEAN Free Trade Area that aims at lifting the tariffs and non-tariffs barriers within the Southeast Asian region, since later on, this would help Burma to enter the free trade area by 2015 when import taxes are reduced to Zero on most of the products.73

The Burmese people and the social Conditions, the ethnicities: Burma has many ethnic and religious groups, will they Co-exist and live in peace? Or will they live as enemies in one nation?

Burma is known for its diversified religions and ethnicities. The official language is Burmese though ethnic minority groups have their own languages, the predominant religion in Burma is Buddhism, to which 89% of the population adheres to, Christians (mostly Baptist) and Muslims each represent 4 % of Burma while animist beliefs comprise only 1 % of the country.

The table below shows the percentages of the different ethnic groups; 74

Burman Shan group Karen group Rakhine

68 % 9% 7% 4%

Chinese Indian Mon Other

71

3% 2% 2% 5%

Sun Wyler, Liana. "Burma and transional crime." FAS. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34225.pdf (accessed February 16, 2013).

72 "Myanmar Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)." Master International Trade Export Business Courses e-learning. http://en.reingex.com/Myanmar-FTA-Agreements.shtml (accessed February 17, 2013).

73 Linn, Soe Than, Sandar Lwin, and Kyaw Hsu Mon. "New government should prioritise ASEAN free trade, experts say." The Myanmar Times. http://www.mmtimes.com/2010/news/546/news54607.html (accessed February 17, 2013).

74 CIA. "the world factbook-Burma." Central intelligence agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/bm.html#People%3E. (accessed February 17, 2013).

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Burma’s Minority groups: More than 40% of people living in Burma belong to one of the nation’s different minority groups eight of these groups are recognized by the state but it refuses to acknowledge others, here are the most important six groups ;

1. Shan: The Shan are considered to be the largest ethnic minority in Burma, numbering an estimated 6 million, They live across the Shan state, as well as the Kachin states and the Mandalay division and the religion of most of them is Buddhism, the Shan have their own language and script and they maintain close relations with Tai ethnic groups that are located in South-Western China, during the elections They were represented by the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party.

2. Chin: The Chin lives mostly in the remote Chin State close to the borders with India as they are Estimated to be about 1.5 million, most of them converted to Christianity in the 19 th century and according to the human rights groups in 2009, they are one of the most oppressed ethnic groups in Burma as they have been subjected to routine abuse and forced labor by the Burmese military, besides the acute food shortages which was estimated by the UN’s World Food Program that food consumption in the Chin State is considered among the lowest rates in Burma.

3. Kachin: The Kachin group is mostly Christian, and it is believed that they originally came from Tibet, they maintain an armed wing known as KIA ( Kachin Independence Army) that has more than 10,000 troops ready to fight, the KIA was formed in response to the military coup and have fought the Burmese military for years until ceasefire in 1994, this ceasefire between the KIA and the Burmese army lasted for about 17 years until in 2010 when troubles began to resurface.

4. Rohingya: The Rohingya are predominantly Muslim, they are located in Arakan State of Western Burma.

When the military junta took over it imposed a “Burmanisation” policy based on racial purity; which meant that the Rohingya were denied citizenship and were officially declared as foreigners and illegal Bengali immigrants, and It is estimated that about 800,000 Muslim residents do not have citizenship.

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5. Rakhine: The Rakhine people make up the majority of Arakan state and they also live in southern parts in Bangladesh, they are mainly Theravada Buddhists, many of the Rakhine parties are contesting the elections but the largest of them is the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party.

6. Mon: The Mon is believed to be one of Burma’s oldest ethnic groups that have brought Buddhism into the country, as most of them live in the south but they also have close links to Thailand and the Khmer in Cambodia, the Mon state as well was subject to separatist violence between the junta and The New Mon State Party but a ceasefire has been imposed with the junta giving them some control over the state. 75

Human rights in Burma, the agony of souls: The violations of human rights and freedoms continue to be a prominent characteristic of Burma, though the government’s reforms, will these violations come to an end? Or will there be more blood?

1. The political prisoners: For a long time Burma has witnessed all sorts of repression and among these, is political repression. The official number of political prisoners in Burma is unavailable, but according to some human rights groups there are at least 300 political prisoners still in custody, while the U.S department had estimated that at least 1,100 political prisoners were detained, these prisoners were kept in the country’s 43 prisons and labor camps, some serving sentences of several decades after trials with very limited access to legal representation. 76 But Starting January 2012, the Burmese government began releasing political prisoners in a series of reforms aimed at democratizing Burma, following the 2010 elections, the first batch of freed prisoners included; the members of the 88 Generation student group that led the 1988 uprising, the leader of the monk-led anti-government protests of 2007 and Khun TunOo who is the most senior political representative of the Shan, the largest of Burma’s ethnic minorities among other notable oppositionists. Later on Burma announced amnesty for a new batch of political prisoners up to 500 ones, which included political detainees and this coincided with Aung San Suu Kyi’s U.S trip, ahead of another separate U.S visit by the Burmese president Thein Sein.77 75

BBC, "Who are Burma's minority groups?," November 18, 2010, sec. Asia.

"Burma: Political Prisoners Released | Human Rights Watch." Human Rights Watch | Defending Human Rights Worldwide. http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/01/13/burma-political-prisoners-released (accessed February 17, 2013).

77 BBC, "Burma's political priosners," November 15, 2012, sec. Asia.

76

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2-Freedom of Religion

Almost all religious groups in Burma have been subject to some kind of repression.

Buddhist monks who participated in the 2007 anti-government protests were arrested, the Muslim Rohingya were forced to relocate on religious as well as ethnic grounds and several Christian religious sites were destroyed. According to a 2010 report by the U.S Department of State, the government has long monitored the activities and meetings of almost all organizations, including the religious ones and have always been required to take permission from authorities to hold public events and any attempt to promote and support human rights have been scrutinized and met with aggression from the authorities. According to Amnesty International some soldiers set fire to the Mong Khawn monastery in Kachin state, because they suspected that the monks had provided assistance and support to KIA, also the authorities in a village in Chin state ordered a Christian preacher not to speak at the local church and leave the area, this is besides the incident when the authorities in Kachin state ordered local Christian churches to request permission at least 15 days before carrying out any religious activities, another offensive incident when soldiers opened fire on a Christian church also in Kachin state injuring several worshippers. 78

3. Use of forced labor: Burmese villagers are being used as forced labor to help support a huge gas pipeline that is earning the country's military regime hundreds of millions of dollars. Many villagers and former soldiers gathered by human rights workers testified that the Burmese soldiers, who provide security for the pipeline are forcing thousands of people to work in a humiliating way and this is by carrying wood and repairing roads in the pipeline area, also they have been forced to build police stations and barracks and this is early since 2009. The Burmese soldiers that are stationed near the villages asked the poor villagers to build a new police camp, but the land where they would build the new camp belongs to the local villagers, as a result of this, the villagers had to cut bamboo, wood, and leaves for the building and set it up. Despite the fact that Burmaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s SPDC officially issued a law that bans the use of forced labor in 1999, but the troops routinely force civilians to work for them, moreover those who refuse are often beaten, 78

"annual report 2012-Myanmar." amnesty international. www.amnesty.org/en/region/myanmar/report2012#section-8-6 (accessed February 17, 2013).

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tortured or sometimes killed, 79 also the forced labor includes the underage recruitment into the army, while others are used in trafficking for forced labor. 80

4. Sectarian Violence: The origins of Burmaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Rohingya community dates back to the late 19 th century, as a result of the British colonial government encouragement to the Arab, Indian and Bengali immigration to be used as inexpensive labor. The persecution against the Rohingya historically started with the foreign and local governments, as from 1942 -1945 there was a Systematic violence against them carried out by the ethnic Rakhine Buddhists as well as by Japanese occupiers, resulting in Tens of thousands of Rohingya fled to neighboring countries as refugees. In 1962 the Burmese government began a violent campaign against the Rohingya militants, striving for selfdetermination, then in 1978 the Burmese government labeled the Rohingya as illegal settlers from Bangladesh, by conducting the operation king dragon to expel them, but there was an international pressure to halt this operation. In 1982, the Burmese government issued the citizenship law that officially classified the Rohingya as non-citizens of Burma. 81 In June 2012, violent clashes between the Muslim Rohingya and Rakhine Buddhists have erupted in Rakhine state after the distribution of leaflets calling for revenge, after a young Buddhist woman was allegedly raped and killed by 3 Muslim men. Afterwards 10 Muslims who were not Rohingya were killed by Buddhists vigilantes in a town in Rakhine, accordingly the security forces had opened fire on Rohingyas and killed several of them. Throughout the following 10 days, violence continued and army battalions were sent to reinforce the security forces. This left nearly 83 Buddhists and Muslims dead and thousands of homes destroyed and tens of thousands of people displaced, as a result of these clashes president Thein Sein was prompted to declare a state of emergency and impose dawn-to-dusk curfews in the capital of Rakhine, as well as expressing that the government was only responsible for third-generation Rohingyas whose families had arrived before independence in 1948 and that it is impossible to accept those who had illegally entered Burma. Despite the fact that Burma insisted that it exercised maximum restraint when dealing with the riots, but some human rights groups

79

Sisodla, Rajeshree, and Andrew Buncombe. "Burmese villagers 'forced to work on Total pipeline' ." Independent, August 14, 2009, sec. Asia.

80 "annual report 2012-Myanmar." amnesty international. www.amnesty.org/en/region/myanmar/report2012#section-8-6 (accessed February 17, 2013).

81 "Backgrounder: the Rohingya of Myanmar - Geopolitical Monitor." Geopolitical Analysis & Forecasting - Military, Politics, Economy, Energy Security, Environment, Commodities. http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/backgrounder-the-rohingya-of-myanmar-4728/ (accessed February 18, 2013).

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accused Burmese security forces of conducting a series of killing, raping and arresting against Rohingyas amid these clashes. 82 Another round of riots took place in November 2012, when around 90 people were killed in a renewed communal violence between Rakhine Buddhists and the Muslim Rohingya , as the U.S President Obama offered the hand of friendship and this should have been in return for more reforms and urged reconciliation with the Rohingya minority. 83

5. The crisis of the refugees, stateless and internally -displaced people (IDPs), the need for shelter: The Refugeesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; issue in Burma is getting worse and disturbing the neighboring countries; will Burma save its people and embrace them? Or will they be Diasporas?

Humanitarian needs persist in Burma, since it was estimated that there is about 500,000 internally-displaced people (IDPs) in Burma, 3 million Burmese refugees in other countries, plus some 800,000 stateless Rohingyas in the west of the country. Here are the most important countries that host the refugees: 84

ď&#x201A;ˇ

Thailand: currently hosts about 84,900 registered refugees from Burma, as well as an estimated 62,000 unregistered asylum-seekers in nine camps along the Thai-Burma border.

82

Essa, Azad. "In Burma, violence against Muslim minority stumbles into the spotlight." guardian, August 14, 2012, sec. news.

Petty, Martin . "Four killed as Rohingya Muslims riot in Myanmar: government." Reuters, June 8, 2012, sec. politics.

83 BBC, "Burma profile," February 5, 2013, sec. timeline.

84 http://www.refintl.org/where-we-work/asia/burma

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Following the 2010 elections clashes erupted between ethnic armed groups and the Burmese army along the border, leading to the flow of about 16,000-18,000 people from Burma. They were allowed temporary stay but soon after the fighting ceased, national authorities encouraged them to return to their country and an estimated 5,000 people still remain scattered along the Thai-Burma border. Another important point is that refugees and asylum-seekers living outside the camps are regarded as illegal immigrants and therefore are subject to arrest, detention and deportation under the immigration law. The situation of Burmese refugees in camps in Thailand is one of the longest in the world as they have been bound in these camps since they began arriving in the 1980’s. 85 

Bangladesh: is one of the most protracted displacement situations in the world, as it hosts more than 29,000 refugees from the Burma’s northern Rakhine state that live in official refugee camps while the government estimates that another 200,000 unregistered Burmese people currently reside in Bangladesh without any legal status. As a result of the sectarian violence that loomed over between the Rohingya and Rakhine Buddhists it was estimated that almost 80,000 people have been displaced, but Bangladesh has refused to accept many of the refugees and have pushed back boatloads of Rohingyas attempting to cross over to the other side and even ordered three international charities ; Doctors without Borders, Action Against Hunger and Muslim Aid UK to halt their operations immediately because these charities were creating a pull factor for the refugees and that it will only increase the amount of people influx to Bangladesh. 86

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China: Has been part of the refugees’ crisis as well. In August 2012, Human Rights Watch accused China of forcing at least 1,000 refugees back to Burma and that there were plans to deport 4,000 more from makeshift camps in the province of Yunnan, also it was believed that China was preventing UN and other international agencies from reaching about 7,00010,000 refugees in the province, but China has denied these accusations and expressed that the refugees were returning home because fighting was de-escalating and because any of them were not refugees, actually they are people who go back to Burma for work during the day and reside in China temporarily at night. This was the result of the fighting between Burmese army and KIA that re-emerged after almost 17 years of ceasefire, this conflict is not only dangerous due to the fact that it may unsettle other ceasefire, but also due to its human toll as tens of thousands of people have been displaced as a result of the fighting in northern Burma. 87

85

UNHCR. "UNHCR - Thailand." UNHCR Welcome. http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/page?page=49e489646 (accessed February 18, 2013).

86 "Bangladesh | Refugees International." Home Page | Refugees International. http://www.refugeesinternational.org/where-we-work/asia/bangladesh (accessed February 18, 2013).

Zain Al-Mahmood, Syed . "Persecuted Burmese tribe finds no welcome in Bangladesh." guardian, August 7, 2012, sec. news.

87 BBC, "China 'forcing Kachin refugees back to Burma'," August 24, 2012, sec. Asia.

Wong, Edward. "Chinese Deny Forcing Refugees to Myanmar." New York Times, August 25, 2012, sec. world.

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Burma’s Military Capabilities, The defensive power: Is the hidden gem ready for protecting its lands against any foreign raid, or is too vulnerable to do so?

1. Military Expenditures: The Burmese army is one of the largest and most battle-tested armies in Southeast Asia, as it’s still fighting a half-century war with ethnic insurgencies. According to official publications, about one-quarter of Burma's new national budget will be allocated to defense, and this is equivalent to 23.6 % of the budget in 2011. 88 The problem with this percentage is that the expenditures in the defense sector overtakes the education and the healthcare sectors which are considered to be the main ones in the budget, because increasing the defense budget is not a priority in the meantime. 89

2. Defense Production: Burma’s defense productions are state secrets. It does not officially export weapons although there are some allegations that the army might be involved in some black market arms trading. On the other hand Burma has had for many years the capacity to manufacture light arms and ammunition, as it has a large weapons factory as well as ammunition factories, this is besides the two factories in Yangon, in addition to the military supplies and equipment factories at Mandalay. All these factories produce rifles, light machine guns, anti-personnel mines, grenades and light mortars. According to a report published in September 2011, Burma had more than 20 military factories, apart from the research facilities where new weaponry including missiles was being developed, but Burma still depends heavily on foreign supply in terms of heavy arms and ammunition. Though Burma’s shipbuilding yards can produce naval patrol boats, but the navy is still heavily dependent on foreign logistics, as well as the air force that has never been able to produce aircraft or sophisticated aircraft components. This is besides the package of agreements related to the production renovation, upgrading and expansion of special equipment, port and rail transportation and hydropower station projects, as this is a part of recent government efforts to focus on the defense production

88

Bloombergbusinessweek, "Myanmar allocates 1/4 of new budget to military," March 1, 2011, sec. global economies.

89 "Politicians decry military budget." Democratic Voice of Burma . http://www.dvb.no/news/politicians-decrymilitary-budget/14619 (accessed February 18, 2013).

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development. 90

Burma’s nuclear ambition, the pursuit of influence: Will Burma be a nuclear state? Or what is said about its nuclear ambition is out of the blue?

Does Burma really need a nuclear program?

The Burmese nuclear ambition dates back to 1956, but it was for peaceful and scientific purposes and was not related to the defense production. The UBAEC (Union of Burma Atomic Energy Center) recruited the talented and the qualified physicians and sent them to the U.S and Britain for further and developed studies, at that time Burma was qualified and ready to develop a nuclear project, as it was advanced and made a progress in this field to the extent that in 1960 a site for nuclear research reactor was allocated in Yangon, but this ambition was halted in the wake of the 1962 Coup d'état.91 In 2010 there have been some allegations about Burma, that it was reviving its nuclear ambition and there were some speculations about an ambiguous nuclear and missile network that seemed to link North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, and Syria which all are known purchasers of illicit nuclear equipment. Accordingly North Korea had either sold missiles or helped them build their own, this was aside from a quasi agreement in 2007 for Russia to build a small research reactor for Burma, in addition to a former major in the Burmese army that learned missile expertise in Russia and his reference to the incident of hundreds of Burmese scientists that have trained in Russian nuclear institutes in 2002, including one formerly linked to the Soviet nuclear-weapons program, this is besides a report’s conclusion that such work was for nuclear weapons and not for peaceful purposes.

On the other hand, Burma has only a Small Quantities Protocol with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and by this Burma is exempted from regular inspections and this is based on the government's assurance that it has nothing to inspect. 92 In June 2012, the country’s defense minister stated that Burma had formally abandoned its pursuit of nuclear power and had also restrained its military and political ties with North Korea, therefore there is 90

"Defence production and R & D (Myanmar) - Sentinel Security Assessment - Southeast Asia ." Jane's Information Group. http://articles.janes.com/articles/Janes-Sentinel-Security-Assessment-Southeast-Asia/Defence-productionand-R--D-Myanmar.html (accessed February 18, 2013).

91 Lintner, Bertil . "BURMA’S WMD PROGRAMME AND MILITARY COOPERATION BETWEEN BURMA AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA." asiapacificicms. http://www.asiapacificms.com/papers/pdf/burma_dprk_military_cooperation.pdf (accessed February 18, 2013).

92 "Myanmar's nuclear ambitions: Secrets will out | The Economist." The Economist - World News, Politics, Economics, Business & Finance. http://www.economist.com/node/16321694 (accessed February 18, 2013).

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no need for the UN nuclear watchdog and the IAEA to visit the country and monitor its weapons programs. 93

Burma’s foreign relations, the strategies and the goals: Burma’s foreign relations to some extent are skeptical; will Burma succeed in refuting these suspicions and skepticism? Or will it seek its goals not considering the probable consequences?

1. U.S-Burmese relations: 

The beginnings of the strained relations between the U.S and Burma: The political relationship between the U.S and Burma deteriorated after the 1988 military coup and violent crackdown on the pro-democracy demonstrations. Accordingly most of the Western foreign aid diminished, as Burma receives grants of technical assistance mostly from the Asian countries, limited humanitarian aid and debt relief from Japan and China as well as concessional loans from China and India. Moreover, the U.S reduced its level of representation in Burma from Ambassador to Charge d'Affaires, because of Burma’s failure to honor the results of the 1990 parliamentary elections. Since 1997, the U.S. Government has prohibited any kind of new investments in Burma by U.S. individuals or entities and this led to the exit of a number of U.S. companies from the Burmese market, but this was prior to the imposition of sanctions, it was the result of a deteriorated business climate and the escalated complaints and criticism from human rights groups, consumers and shareholders. The U.S has also imposed countermeasures on Burma due to its inefficient measures and policies to eradicate money laundering, as well as severe violations of religious freedom.

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Under George W.Bush administration: In 2003, President George W. Bush imposed new sanctions against Burma according to the BFDA (Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act), as well as an Executive Order including a ban on imports of Burma’s products, a ban on the export of financial services to Burma and an asset freeze against the SPDC and three designated Burmese foreign trade financial institutions. As a result of the brutal crackdown on peaceful protestors in 2007, President Bush issued a new Executive Order that expanded sanctions to include asset freezes against designated individuals responsible for human rights abuses and public corruption, as well as designated individuals and entities that provide material or any kind of financial support to these designated individuals or the Burmese military government and this further tensioned the relationship.

93

Ghosh, Palash R.. "Myanmar Abandons Nuclear Program: Defense Minister." International Business Times International Business News, Financial News, Market News, Politics, Forex, Commodities. http://www.ibtimes.com/myanmar-abandons-nuclear-program-defense-minister-701322 (accessed February 18, 2013).

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In the wake of Cyclone Nargis the U.S has provided nearly $85 million, as in assistance of the recovery efforts, but the U.S maintained sanctions against Burma that prohibit U.S. support for lending and technical assistance by international financial institutions that are located in Burma. In 2008, President Bush issued an Executive Order which further expanded sanctions that encompasses asset freezes against designated Burmese entities that were approximately 110 individuals and entities. 

The united nations’ role: In 2007, the U.S and the U.K. sponsored a UN Security Council resolution on Burma calling on the regime to cease the violent and the aggressive attacks on ethnic minorities, engage in a diplomatic political dialogue and stop violating the basic human rights, but both Russia and China vetoed it. On the other hand when Cyclone Nargis swept the country, the international community has provided more than $343 million to Burma in response to the UN appeal for humanitarian relief.

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Burma as a Country of particular concern: The U.S has designated Burma as a Country of Particular Concern under the International Religious Freedom Act; also, Burma is ranked as the third Country in human trafficking and the use of forced labor. Burma was found to have failed to meet its international responsibilities and obligations which are controlling drug production and trafficking, during U.S. narcotics certification procedures in 2010.



Under Obama’s administration: In 2009, Obama’s administration declared a conclusion of a policy review conducted earlier by the former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, this review reaffirmed the U.S strategic goals in Burma, which are supporting a unified, peaceful, prosperous and democratic Burma that respects the human rights of its citizens without persecution. 94

2. Burma’s Major allies:  Sino-Burmese relations: Despite the often-contentious histories between the two countries, Burma has grown closer to both China and India in recent years, as China quickly became Burma's most important partner by offering debt relief, economic development grants and soft loans used for the construction of infrastructure. China is also considered as Burma's major supplier of arms and munitions, as China was from the premier countries to induce Yangon's military leaders.

Since 1988, Burma has become China's closest ally in the South-East Asian region, as well as being a major recipient of Chinese military hardware and an effective spring-board for eminent 94

"Burma (08/03/11)." U.S. Department of State. http://www.state.gov/outofdate/bgn/burma/189439.htm (accessed February 19, 2013).

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Chinese military power in the region. As strengthening the relations between the two countries was a crucial part of China's diplomacy and plans concerning its surrounding areas and neighboring countries, 95 Beijing was also behind a project to build an oil and gas pipeline across Burma into south-western China in order to provide this massive nation with an alternative route for energy supplies. 96

 Indo-Burmese relations: The commercial and the military ties and relations between the two countries are growing as well, this is due to India’s status as a primary destination for the Burmese exports such as beans and pulses. The Chinese alliance with Burma alarmed India, accordingly, India in recent years has shifted its strategy away from supporting Burma's opposition movement towards fostering ties with the junta, as a result of the re-evaluation of its strategy, that turned out to be pushing Yangon closer to Beijing; this was around 1993. At first, India had tried to curb China's influence in Burma by supporting the country's pro-democracy forces, also New Delhi has offered Burma favorable trade relations and cooperation against ethnic insurgents, along the Indo-Burmese borders and according to some Indian allegations, the Burmese generals pointed out that New Delhi should take a greater interest in development work to reduce Yangon's heavy dependence on China. 97 Recently in 2012, the Indian Prime minister Manmohan Singh paid the first official visit since 1987 and signed 12 agreements to bolster the trade and diplomatic ties, specifically in the fields of the border area development and an Indian credit line. 98

 North Korean –Burmese relations: The military relationship between the two countries has been scrutinized by the international community, as the U.S and other countries have urged Burma to be transparent in its relationship with North Korea in order to give the international community confidence that Burma is not breaching its international obligations, specifically with respect to implementation of UN Security Council Resolutions. North Korea is known to have been involved in the construction of underground bunkers and tunnels at different locations in Burma and they are probably still assisting the Burmese in missile development at a top secret defense industry complex, as well as other sites, this is in addition to the last several recorded attempts to ship weaponry from North Korea to Burma that took place in 2011, and this was several months 95

"China's Ambitions in Myanmar --- Asia Pacific Media Service." Asia Pacific Media Services -- Incisive Asian News and Analysis. ://www.asiapacificms.com/articles/myanmar_influence (accessed February 19, 2013).

96 Bristow, Michael. "BBC News - China troubled by warming US-Burmese relations." BBC - Homepage. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15980720 (accessed February 19, 2013).

97 "China's Ambitions in Myanmar --- Asia Pacific Media Service." Asia Pacific Media Services -- Incisive Asian News and Analysis. ://www.asiapacificms.com/articles/myanmar_influence (accessed February 19, 2013).

98 "BBC News - Burma profile - Timeline ." BBC - Homepage. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific12992883 (accessed February 19, 2013).

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after Thein Sein became president and after the government ‘s claims that there was no military cooperation with North Korea, then in 2012, there was a Burma-bound North Korean cargo vessel suspected of carrying missile parts and possibly other military equipment, as the North Koreans refused to board, when the U.S destroyer approached the ship and ordered it to stop.99

 Russian-Burmese relations: The cooperation between the two countries is manifested in a 50-kilometer metro line, as the contract won by a Russian firm, will be built deep beneath NayPyidaw. Russia has yet to start on any major infrastructural projects in Burma, because the bids for such developments are often quickly snapped up by China, also Burma was trying to counter-balance Chinese influence with the help of Russia, besides that Russia had been chosen to build the metro, due to the similarity between Moscow’s deep underground system that was built deep to act as a bomb shelter during World War II and the one Burma’s military want in the capital. Most importantly Russia is a historical ally of Burma, as Khrushchev was the first leader who visited Burma when the country was on its way to Socialism and a pro-Communist movement.100

Other Crucial Foreign relations:  Thai-Burmese relations: The relations between the two countries are generally cooperative, but the strength of political relations between them have fluctuated in the recent years, as they have been disrupted by a long history of border conflicts and aggressions over narcotics trafficking and the insurgents’ operations along the Burmese-Thai border. However, the official and the unofficial economic ties remain strong, and this is evident in the sizable amount of Thailand’s investment that has been for concessions in timber and gemstones, which Burma has plenty of them, but the largest and most significant investments have been for the purpose of the development of facilities to produce electricity in Burma, therefore exporting that energy to fuel the rapid growth of Thailand’s commercial and industrial sectors. This is in addition to the Burmese refugees it hosts, as the Thai Government issues temporary work permits to another one million Burmese who live outside the refugee camps in Thailand, noting that Thailand is a key U.S. security ally in Asia. Thus the country's stability and growth are important to the maintenance of peace in the region, as the U.S-Thai alliance dates back to World War II when they expanded diplomatic and commercial relations. 101

99

Lintner, Bertil . "Democratic voice of Burma." DVB. http://www.dvb.no/analysis/deceiving-the-us-over-northkorean-ties/20044 (accessed February 19, 2013).

100 "Moscow exports the metro – to Myanmar | BUSINESS | The Moscow News." The Moscow News. http://themoscownews.com/business/20110804/188901267.html (accessed February 19, 2013).

101 "Thai-Burma Relations " arakanrivers. http://www.arakanrivers.net/?page_id=152 (accessed February 19, 2013).

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 Iranian-Burmese relations: The relations between the two countries are manifested in Iran’s announcement about plans to establish an embassy in Burma, as initial preparation have been made for that matter because this embassy will be the tribune to discuss the Muslim Rohingya issues. This was a result of Iran’s outspoken criticism of the recent sectarian violence in Arakan State, which was portrayed as a kind of an anti-Muslim genocide, this is in addition to Iran’s beliefs that the establishment of an embassy can help foster the political relations between the two countries and this is an effective step, that will enable Iran to help resolve the problems of the Muslim people of Burma, through cooperation with the country’s government. 102

The Future Scenarios of the U.S-Burmese relations: Firstly, Burma is located in a strategic region and neighbored by important key players, some are the U.S allies while others are enemies, So Burma is considered as an interest zone to the U.S, affecting its goals in the Southeast Asian region, therefore the U.S aid to Burma and the U.S sanctions against Burma became very controversial and debatable, because in Burma there are huge amounts of violations to the human rights and religious freedoms, also Burma is not adhering to its international obligations .

Secondly, this leads to important point which is; the U.S aid and its effectiveness in improving the political and social conditions in Burma, as well as helping to maintain Democracy and transparency, thus curtailing the corruption and the deterioration there. Now the international community is suspicious about Burma’s nuclear ambition and the speculations revolving around this issue, which was further confirmed by credible sources. Accordingly this might create instability and imbalance in the region, leading to the possibility that Burma would be a nuclear state pursuing the nuclear race.

Thirdly, the Burmese-Iranian relations that have emerged on the political arena, as Burma and Iran are now seeking cooperation and building strong relations and this could be a very vital turning point in the prospects of the U.S relations with both countries, as Burma and Iran have many troubles in the human rights and religious freedom issues. Iran’s justifications to these relations were supporting the Muslim Rohingya there, moreover both countries have nuclear ambition and this raises an important question about the future of the mutual cooperation and whether it will encompass the nuclear issue or not.

Fourthly, Some Intelligence analysts mentioned that China's economic, political and military influence in the country has already become so strong, that it would be hard for Yangon to radically re-orient and review its foreign policy, but the termination of Burma's elder generation of military leaders could present opportunities for India to induce Burma, thus keeping it away from China.

102

"Iran to Open Embassy in Burma." irrawaddy. http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/10569 (accessed February 19, 2013).

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 The options that are available on the table range from: 1. Relaxing or lifting the sanctions against Burma, in order to help the Economic growth and the U.S Collaboration in Burma and to avoid blocking the U.S involvement there, because it’ll be considered as a Strategic Mistake, instead the U.S will just monitor the transparency and democracy processes in Burma, in addition to the U.S oil and gas companies that could be used as instruments that positively influence the transparency and other reform goals in Burma.

2. The call for the renewal of the sanctions on Burma as this isn’t the right time for the U.S companies to make fresh investments there, also the Burmese Government hasn’t met yet all the necessary conditions to justify a Complete repeal of all the existing Sanctions, moreover the regime’s relationship with North Korea and their suspicious military relations and Pushing the European Countries that are the U.S Allies to do the same, as many of these countries invest in the Natural gas and oil Companies there.

3. Arranging direct discussions and renewing them with the major powers, as well as considering various forms of aid to Burma.

4. In Case of the Failure of the aforementioned options, more radical actions and measures could be taken, though the option of any sort of intervention is farfetched but it might be considered, by using the allies’ and the suppressed resistance movements’ assistance.

Finally, despite the tough measures taken by the U.S, as the imposition of sanctions and its support for the democratic opposition, there is a possibility to expand humanitarian assistance and engage in direct and senior-level dialogue with Burmese authorities.

Now, this is your role honorable senators to legislate, redefine diplomacy and reshape foreign policy.

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Chairman: Noran Mohsen Ranking Member: Sherif Hashem Party Consultant: Abdelfattah Nada

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Jurisdiction103: The U.S. Senate Committee on Finance is one of the original committees in the Senate, and was first established on December 11, 1815. 104 The Committee concerns itself with matters relating to taxation and other revenue measures and those relating to the insular possessions; bonded debt of the United States; customs, collection districts, and ports of entry and delivery; health programs under the Social Security Act and health programs financed by a specific tax or trust fund; national social security; reciprocal trade agreements; tariff and import quotas; and the transportation of dutiable goods.

In addition the Committee has extensive oversight powers. It has authority to investigate, review and evaluate existing laws, and the agencies that implement them. Due to its wide authority, it is considered to be one of the most powerful committees in Congress.

Subcommittees:      

Subcommittee on Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth Subcommittee on Health Care Subcommittee on International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness Subcommittee on Social Security, Pensions and Family Policy Subcommittee on Taxation and IRS Oversight

Chairmanship:  The Chairman:

Sen. Max Baucus (Democrat-Montana)

 The Ranking Member:

Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (Republican-Utah) 103 104

Committee on Finance, Jurisdiction: http://www.finance.senate.gov/about/jurisdiction/ History of the Committee on Finance United States Senate, Government Printing Office

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B

riefing of the MACâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;13 Committee on Finance:

The economy of a country can be strong indicator; a highly developed economy indicates technological advancement and a streamlined environment in which to do business. Strong economies usually include some measure of social welfare. Lastly, a strong economy is needed to maintain a powerful military, and to provide political independence. The latter in particular is a greater challenge in the globalized economy of today. The state of an economy however does not necessarily bear an indication to the culture, values, society, and individual wellbeing in non-material terms, but economic policy no doubt has an influence on these non-measurable factors.

Yet, a strong economy does not indicate it is secure, and from this perspective the topics discussed this year in the Committee on Finance are of importance.

The first issue concerns nuclear energy production in the United States. It is a contentious problem because of the nature of nuclear energy; the capacity for vast energy production, offset by the problem of radioactive waste and the inherent dangers, most recently proven in the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Nuclear energy can also be part of solving the climate change problem and improving Americaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s energy situation by producing energy domestically.

Yet the technology is expensive, which will require substantial government support at the expense of alternative energy sources. The Committee will discuss and revi ew the long-standing problem of nuclear waste and how to handle it on the short and long term, and will tackle the question of whether nuclear energy should be given greater economic support, expanding its future role in energy production.

The second topic reviews the United Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; economic relations with the European Union, a major economic power. The Committee will tackle the question of seeking a free trade agreement, liberalizing trade and integrating the economies of both sides. This carries significant economic gains, but also more risks from economic interdependency and makes American industries and companies more susceptible to competitiveness.

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Topics' Outline: 1st Topic: Nuclear Energy  Introduction to Energy…………………………………………………………………….….83  Overview……………………………………………………………………………………….……86 o Explaining Nuclear Power o Nuclear Fuel Cycle o Brief History o Federal Regulatory Entities  Current and Emerging Technology………………………………………………………...89 o Current Generations o Future Technology  Federal Role……………………………………………………………………………………..92 o Present Industry Issues o Research and Development o Waste Management o Fiscal Instruments  Federal Legislation……………………………………………………………………………….99

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2nd Topic: European Union Free Trade Agreement  Introduction…………………………………………………………………………..………….102 o The European Union o European trade policy o US trade policy  Bilateral Relations…………………………………………………….…………………….104 o Economic Relations o Foreign Relations  Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement (TAFTA)……………………………….108 o History o Why American and European leaders considering TAFTA? o Economic Barriers o Negotiating a Barrier-Free Investment Agreement  Transatlantic FTA Opportunities vs. Threats.…………………………….………...115 o Opportunities o Threats

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Nuclear Energy

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Introduction to Energy Resources like petroleum, gas and coal are the main producers of energy worldwide, whether to provide electricity, enable transportation or power industries. The consumption of these fossil fuels involves a combustion process that releases large amounts of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide and numerous other gases.

These are pollutants that result in climate change, acid rain and damage human health.

Due to the problems involved, there has been a search for alternative sources of energy. This includes renewable sources like solar power, wind power, hydropower, and biofuels, as well as nuclear energy. Against popular opinion, alternative energy sources still give off GHG emissions, but at much lower, sustainable levels than traditional fossil fuels. Hence they are called carbonneutral energy sources because they do not increase the levels of CO2.

History of Clean Energy Production105 Nuclear power started coming online in significant amounts in the late 1960s, supplying 9% of total electricity generation by 1975. However, increases in costs, construction delays, and public reaction following the Three Mile Island accident in 1979 stopped expansion of the technology, and many construction projects were cancelled. Continuation of some construction increased the nuclear share of generation to 20% in 1990, where it remains currently. Interest grew in nuclear power again in recent years, but the economic downturn has discouraged action on new construction. The accident at Japan’s Fukushima in March raised further questions about future construction of nuclear power plants.

Construction of major hydroelectric projects has also essentially ceased, and hydropower’s share of electricity generation has gradually declined, from 30% in 1950 to 15% in 1975 and less than 10% in 2000. However, hydropower remains highly important on a regional basis. Other renewable energy sources offer more potential than actual energy production, although fuel ethanol has become a significant transportation fuel. Wind power has recently grown rapidly, although it still contributes only a small share.

U.S. Energy Policy106 U.S. policy since the 1970s Arab oil embargo has had three dimensions: to assure a secure supply of energy, meeting the needs of a growing economy, and to protect the environment. A recurring problem is that the three policies repeatedly offset one another; fossil fuels are cheap but produce huge emissions; wind power is environmentally friendly but cannot produce sufficient amounts to be considered a secure source. A controversial aspect of the debate is the issue of global climate change, because burning fossil fuels produces large amounts of CO2.

The U.S. energy policy thus has three main goals: to ensure low energy costs for the economy, to increase domestic supply, and to replace conventional energy sources. The ability of nuclear energy to meet these three goals is what Congress must determine.

105

Behrens, Carl E., and Glover, Carol, “U.S. Energy: Overview and Key Statistics” Congressional Research Service (2012): Summary. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40187.pdf 106 Behrens, Carl E., “Energy Policy: 113th Congress Issues” Congressional Research Service (2012): 1.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42756.pdf

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Costs of Different Sources of Energy 107 ($/MWH) Plant Type

2017 Total System Costs (2010 $/megawatthour)

Minimum

Average

Maximum

Conventional Coal

90.1

99.6

116.3

Advanced Coal

103.9

112.2

126.1

Advanced Coal with Carbon Capture & Storage

129.6

140.7

162.4

Conventional Combined Cycle

61.8

68.6

88.1

Advanced Combined Cycle

58.9

65.5

83.3

Advanced CC with CCS

82.8

92.8

110.9

Conventional Combustion Turbine

94.6

132.0

164.1

Advanced Combustion Turbine

80.4

105.3

133.0

Advanced Nuclear

108.4

112.7

120.1

Geothermal

85.0

99.6

113.9

Biomass

101.5

120.2

142.8

Wind

78.2

96.8

114.1

Solar Photovoltaic (PV)

122.2

156.9

245.6

Hydroelectric

57.8

88.9

147.6

Natural Gas

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â&#x20AC;&#x153;Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012â&#x20AC;? U.S. Energy Information Administration (2012): 5. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf Note: the levelized cost compares competitiveness of different energy sources by measuring the per-megawatthour cost of a plant over its life cycle. Key inputs include building & overnight capital costs, fuel costs, fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs and financing costs. These levelized costs do not calculate federal & state incentives.

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Life-Cycle GHG Emissions of Energy Sources (g CO2-eq/kWh) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2011 Figures 108: Technology

Median Emissions (grams of carbon dioxide equivalent/kilowatthours)

Coal

1001

Natural Gas

99.6 469

Nuclear

116.3 16

Geothermal

112.7 45

Biomass

120.1 99.6 18

Wind

113.9 120.2 12

Solar Photovoltaic (PV)

142.8 96.8 46

Hydroelectric

114.1 156.9 4

245.6 A Yale University review in 2012 analyzing CO 2 life cycle emissions from nuclear power 88.9 determined that "life cycle GHG emissions from nuclear power are only a fraction of those from traditional fossil sources." It estimated the median GHG emissions for147.6 Generation II reactors "at approximately 12 g CO2-eq/kWh" but noted that “though uncertain, it is possible that nuclear power will emit more GHGs in the future.” 109

A 2008 Energy Policy report placed the GHG emissions for nuclear power at a higher level, with a median of 66 g CO2-eq/kWh. Other figures were those of solar PV energy: 32 g CO2-eq/kWh; wind: 10 g CO 2-eq/kWh, hydroelectric: 13 g CO2-eq/kWh.110

108

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: “Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation" Cambridge University Press (2012): 982. http://srren.ipcc-

wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Annex_II.pdf 109

Warner, Ethan S., Heath, Garvin A., (Yale University) “Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Nuclear Electricity Generation” Journal of Industrial Ecology (2012): 82, 88.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2012.00472.x/pdf 110

Sovacool, Benjamin K., “Valuing the greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear power: A critical survey” Energy Policy Journal (2008): 2940, 2950. http://www.nirs.org/climate/background/sovacool_nuclear_ghg.pdf

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Nuclear Energy

Overview Explaining Nuclear Power We derive nuclear power from a process called nuclear fission where a large atom is split into smaller particles, releasing energy in the process. First, thermal energy is released which powers a steam turbine generating electricity, while the second kind of energy is radiation.

Both forms of energy are released in vast amounts, but while one (thermal) is useful, the other (radiation) is extremely harmful and a cause for concern. This is more so since the remaining waste from the fuel can continue emitting radiation for up to millions of years, meaning we cannot simply dump it, as it will pollute the air, water and food we survive on and will cause a multitude of health problems to human beings. Lastly, even civilian nuclear power can be used for nuclear proliferation – the spread of nuclear weapons or the materials used to make them – which raises fear about widespread application of nuclear energy. Yet nuclear power can produce vast amounts of electricity with small quantities of fuel; one ton of uranium gives as much electricity as 20,000 tons of coal or 8.5 million m 3 of natural gas. In terms of GHG emissions nuclear power is comparable to renewable energy. In other words it is far cleaner for the environment than traditional fossil fuels. 111 Uranium is the natural resource most commonly used to produce nuclear power. In a nuclear reactor, uranium produces the byproduct plutonium, which is used to make nuclear weapons but can also be used as a fuel. Part of research into new technology focuses with the use of thorium instead of uranium for nuclear fuel for advantages we will examine later.

Nuclear Fuel Cycle The nuclear fuel cycle is the series of industrial processes used to produce electricity from uranium in a nuclear reactor. It has three major parts112: 

Front End: uranium ore is mined and processed into fuel for use in a nuclear reactor.

Most reactors in the world cannot use the natural uranium as a fuel, instead the uranium has to be enriched and this requires separate facilities (the technical aspects and purposes of enrichment is not necessary for this report). Nuclear reactors in the U.S. typically use 4% enriched uranium.

111

"The Nuclear Fuel Cycle" World Nuclear Association: http://www.world-nuclear.org/ (accessed February 28, 2013).

112 Hamilton, Lee H., Scowcroft, Brent & others. "Report to the Secretary of Energy" Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future (2012): 9. http://cybercemetery.unt.edu/archive/brc/20120620220235/http://brc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/br c_finalreport_jan2012.pdf

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

The use of the fuel in a nuclear reactor. The core of a typical reactor in the U.S. contains approximately 100 tons of uranium. Inside the reactor a series of controlled nuclear reactions are sustained that produce substantial quantities of energy. The fuel can efficiently produce energy for four to six years, after which it is considered spent.



Back End: where spent fuel is first stored and ultimately sent for disposal or reprocessing, as such it contains three further stages: o Storage: is a temporary or short-term solution. Fuel removed from a reactor is stored in a nearby water-filled pool to remove the immense heat and shield from radiation. This wet storage should last between one to five years, but at most U.S. reactors the fuel has been stored this way for decades; just less than 50,000 tons of spent fuel in the U.S. are kept in pools.

Afterwards the spent fuel may be kept in dry storage, kept in air-cooled casks of steel and concrete. Although requiring observation and control, dry storage can safely handle even the most radioactive waste for up to fifty years. The U.S. has nearly 18,000 tons of its spent fuel kept in dry storage. 113 o Reprocessing: or nuclear recycling is where usable uranium and plutonium are separated from the waste to be used as a fuel again. This allows for more energy production from the same amount of fuel; it is called a closed fuel cycle. The process is controversial however as it involves additional costs, waste problems and increases the risks of nuclear proliferation. For these reasons the U.S. stands against nuclear reprocessing, treating spent fuel as waste; this is called a oncethrough fuel cycle. The policy reiterated by President Barack Obama in 2009. 114 o Disposal: represents the final, long-term solution. Every current available approach involves ending the nuclear fuel cycle with long-term isolation from the environment. A deep, geologic repository is commonly seen as the best way of isolating such waste.

Brief History Nuclear power came online in the U.S. significantly in the late 1960s. Historically, the last licenses for new plants were issued in 1974, the last ones being completed in the 1990s.

Increases in capital costs, construction delays, and public opposition to nuclear power following publicized nuclear accidents at home and abroad curtailed expansion of the technology, and over 100 reactor projects were cancelled. There are a total of 104 reactors at 65 sites in the United States generate about 20% of the nation’s electricity. Throughout the world, 436 reactors are currently in service, and 62 more are under construction. Five new reactors are currently licensed for construction. About a dozen more are planned, but their future is 113

"Radioactive Waste Management" World Nuclear Association (2012): http://www.worldnuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Nuclear-Wastes/Radioactive-Waste-Management/ "Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): 10-11.

Werner, James D., “U.S. Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage” Congressional Research Service (2012): Summary

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42513.pdf 114

"Adieu to nuclear recycling" Nature Publishing Group: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7252/full/460152b.html

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uncertain as they depend largely on economic competitiveness with natural gas and coal plants. 115 Public opinion has been repeatedly influenced by questions of nuclear safety. The Three Mile Accident in the U.S. in 1979 contributed to halting expansion of nuclear energy in the country. Then in 1986 the famed Chernobyl accident occurred in the Soviet Union, turning opinions worldwide against pursuing nuclear energy. The most recent blow was in Japan in the Fukushima accident, which turned public opinion against future use of nuclear power and potential growth; in 2008 it was estimated 17 gigawatts of new nuclear power would be online by 2030; in 2011 the estimate dropped to just 5 gigawatts.116 The most pressing issue is waste disposal. The total amount of spent nuclear fuel in the U.S. as of December 2011 was over 67,000 tons, increasing at a rate of 2,000 tons annually. Yucca Mountain in Nevada was the nation’s disposal site until the Obama administration and Congress abandoned the project in 2011. 117

Federal Regulatory Entities The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), part of the federal executive branch, is also responsible for domestic energy production and, hence, nuclear power. The department handles waste management and, through its Office of Nuclear Energy, it also supports nuclear energy research.

The DoE can further nuclear research and construction of new nuclear units using fiscal instruments.

Some of the DoE’s responsibilities are shared with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The NRC is an independent federal agency established by congress to set safety regulations for nuclear reactors, release licenses and renewals, and manage spent fuel.

Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) In Brief • Commercial SNF is composed of metal assemblies about 12’-15’ long.

• SNF contains uranium and elements created in nuclear reaction.

• SNF assemblies are removed from reactors after being used to produce power.

• Existing reactors generate about 2,000 metric tons per year.

• More than 67,000 metric tons of commercial SNF is currently being stored.

• Most SNF is stored at 77 sites in 35 states.

• Some SNF is stored at closed reactors.

• Some SNF is stored at Department of Energy (DOE) facilities.

• Only 4% of the SNF in the United States is DOE-owned.

• SNF is stored in wet pools and dry casks.

• SNF storage at reactors was intended to be temporary, pending disposal.

• No nation operates a disposal site for SNF. • Proposed U.S. disposal site for SNF at Yucca Mountain in Nevada was terminated in 2009.

• SNF storage is expected to be needed for more than 100 years.

115

“U.S. Energy: Overview and Key Statistics” CRS (2012): Summary.

Holt, Mark, “Nuclear Energy: Overview of Congressional Issues” Congressional Research Service (2012): Summary. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42853.pdf

Holt, Mark. "Nuclear Energy Policy" Congressional Research Service (2012): 3.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33558.pdf 116 117

Mark Cooper "The Implications of Fukushima: US perspective" Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (July): 8.

"Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): 3.

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Current and Emerging Technology Nuclear technology has seen its strides in advances and can be split into generations. There are differences in efficiency and energy output as well as safety. Another difference is that the early generation reactors did not consider solutions for the back end stage of the nuclear fuel cycle, something being overcome in recent R&D.

Current Generations Generation I-II Generation I reactors were mostly prototypes and did not see widespread use. They were quickly surpassed by Generation II reactors in the 1960s. These were designed to be economical and reliable, with a lifetime span of forty years. All reactors operating in the U.S. and most reactors around the world are of this generation. These use active safety, systems which would be activated, either automatically or by operators, to shut down the reactors in case of an emergency. Technological improvements incorporated into Generation II reactors increased their electricity generation. The oldest reactors were licensed in 1969 and the most recent was in 1996. Initially licensed to operate for 40 years, 80% have received or applied for 20-year license renewals by the NRC. Under the current mixture of 40- and 60-year licenses, 36 reactors would have to shut down by 2030 and the rest by 2049. 118 In 2007, construction was renewed on a Generation II reactor at the Watts Bar Plant in Tennessee, after being suspended in 1985. The costs involved show the financial and construction issues inherent in nuclear technology; estimated at first to cost $2.5 billion and be completed in 2013, the reactor is now expected to cost $4.5 billion and be operational in 2015.

After the Watts Bar reactor is complete, construction is expected to begin on a newly licensed Generation II reactor in Bellefonte Plant, Tennessee at $4.9 billion, to be completed by 2020. 119 Generation III Essentially these are Generation II reactors with evolutionary, state-of-the-art design improvements, being safer, more efficient as well as being easier to construct. Four such reactors currently operate worldwide, none of which are in the U.S. Further advances led to Generation III+ reactors. The main improvements are greater energy output and better safety measures, including passive safety; instead of external systems, the laws of physics and the properties of the design itself would prevent an accident from occurring in case of an emergency.120

118

Goldberg, Stephen M., and Robert Rosner, "Nuclear Reactors: Generation to Generation" American Academy of Arts and Sciences (2011): 3-6. http://www.amacad.org/pdfs/nuclearreactors.pdf Wald, Matthew L., "’Nuclear 'Renaissance’ Is Short on Largess" NYTimes.com. http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/07/nuclear-renaissance-is-short-on-largess/ "Nuclear Energy Policy" CRS (2012): 3.

119 "Nuclear Energy Policy" CRS (2012): 3.

“Nuclear Energy: Overview of Congressional Issues” CRS (2012): 2.

120

"Nuclear Reactors: Generation to Generation" (2011): 6-11. http://www.amacad.org/pdfs/nuclearreactors.pdf

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Currently, four new 1100MW Generation III+ reactors are licensed for construction. Two are at Plant Vogtle in Georgia, scheduled to come online in 2016 & 2017; two at the Summer Plant in South Carolina, scheduled to operate by 2016 & 2019. The Vogtle Plant reactors have a combined cost of $13.35 billion, while the Summer Plant reactors will cost $11.6 billion. The Obama administration pledged $8.33 billion in loan guarantees to the Vogtle Plant reactors. 121 The four new reactors were among 31 reactors for which license applications have been submitted with the NRC since 2007. Falling prices for natural gas have made construction projects for most of new nuclear units unlikely. Currently, a total of 14 licenses for new nuclear units are pending with the NRC, but it is unclear when they will be reviewed. If approved these new reactors could begin coming online by the early 2020s. New reactors are estimated to cost $5.3 million per megawatt of capacity (which equals the Vogtle Plant costs), but there is no guarantee these estimates may be surpassed (as in the case of the Summer Plant reactors). 122 It is likely that these projects will require economic assistance from the federal government to ensure they are carried through and can compete economically with fossil fuel plants.

Future Technology Generation IV The latest emerging technologies are Generation IV systems. These new designs are still in the theoretical or experimental stage. In 2000, the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) was created to foster international cooperation in developing the technology, and includes the worlds’ major nuclear energy countries. 123 Generation IV involves both the nuclear reactor and the fuel cycle, making it an all-round system. Previous technology focused only on the reactors, ignoring problems of spent fuel and waste disposal management. In terms of the waste problem, Generation IV reactors are claimed to hold two advantages; a much more efficient energy generation that produces spent fuel radioactive only for a few hundred years; and the ability of some reactors to use existing spent fuel, thereby solving part of the disposal problem. 124 The U.S. is currently developing Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP). Funded and operated by the DoE, the NGNP is a Generation IV federal R&D program. Among the advantages of the 121

"Nuclear Energy Policy" CRS (2012): 5.

"Obama Administration Announces Loan Guarantees to Construct New Nuclear Power Reactors in Georgia" The White House Office of the Press Secretary. http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/obama-administration-announcesloan-guarantees-construct-new-nuclear-power-reactors 122 "Nuclear Energy Policy" CRS (2012): Summary, 5.

“Nuclear Energy: Overview of Congressional Issues” CRS (2012): 2.

123

Hansen, James E."Strategies to Address Global Warming" Columbia University (2009) http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2009/20090713_Strategies.pdf Abram, Tim and Ion, Sue, “Generation-IV nuclear power: A review of the state of the art science” Energy Policy Journal (2008): 4323. http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/energy/energy%20final/abram%20paper%20%20electricity%20section.pdf 124

"Nuclear Energy Policy" CRS (2012): 28-29.

"Strategies to Address Global Warming" Columbia University (2009)

“Technology Roadmap: Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems.” Department of Energy and Generation-IV International Forum (2002): 1. http://www.gen-4.org/PDFs/GenIVRoadmap.pdf

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NGNP is its capability to replace fossil fuels in all sectors, not just electricity production. It can be used to power energy-intensive industries, such as cement and steel manufacturing, because of its extremely high temperature output. It can also be used to produce hydrogen by directly decomposing water, which can be used to fuel transportation. This flexibility of the NGNP and its potential to contribute to a “hydrogen economy” make it attractive in terms of efforts to counter global warming; if successful, it will result in major reductions in CO2 and GHG emissions. The obstacles facing the NGNP include low prices for natural gas, the major competing fuel, and private-sector unwillingness to share the project’s costs. The DoE stated in 2011 it would continue research on the technology, and the 2013 budget focused on fuel research, developing reactor materials and licensing issues. 125 However, as it is still far from commercialization, the ambitious goals of Generation IV technology are questioned by many. The Blue Ribbon Commission (BRC), created to examine future nuclear policy issues for the U.S., presented its report in 2012; it concluded that Generation IV did not provide a solution for the waste problem. Other counterarguments are that; Generation IV is considerably more expensive and thus not economically viable; the technology increases risks of nuclear proliferation; the funding directed to researching the technology would be more useful directed to renewable energy R&D; and finally that the extreme and untried operating conditions in the new technologies would pose safety hazards.126 Small Modular Reactors Rising costs for large conventional nuclear reactors—at $6 billion or more—have contributed to growing interest in small modular reactors (SMRs). Ranging from 40 to 350 megawatts of electrical capacity, such reactors are a fraction of the size of current commercial reactors.

Several modular reactors can be installed together to make up a power block with a single control room.127 Small modular reactors would go against the trend in nuclear technology – ever-larger reactors spreading construction costs over a greater energy output. Because of their lower outputs, SMRs could be built in factories then shipped to plants, or as modules to be assembled. They would include passive safety and their smaller sizes would allow simpler safety systems. In addition their smaller sizes reduce capital costs, financial commitment and risk. Opponents of the technology cite the same problems recurring through all fields of nuclear technology; waste, safety, costs and that it is not viable without government subsidy.

125

"Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): 103, 106.

"Nuclear Energy Policy" CRS (2012): 28.

126 "Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): 100.

Wenisch, Antonia & others, "Science or Fiction: Is there a Future for Nuclear?” Austrian Institute of Ecology (2005): 9-15. http://www.ecology.at/ecology/files/pr577_1.pdf 127 Ibid: 29.

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Costs for output from small modular reactors are estimated to be $5 million per megawatt capacity – a figure roughly similar to current nuclear reactor costs. In other words, the cost of a 180 MW reactor would be $900 million. 128

Federal Role The federal government affects the nuclear industry mainly through fiscal policy measures, which will be examined here. Nuclear power survives on government subsidies. Research and development for new nuclear technology is also dependent on federal funds. Government regulations and safety requirements affect the sector as well, and can drastically change costs.

The last area of government involvement is waste management.

Government subsidies are not only in the form of cash grants; there are many other and more complex methods. They include reduced tax rates, government loans or insurance at belowmarket rates, guarantees on private loans, regulations that affect either the technology or its alternatives, and increased charges or tariffs on competing products.

Present Industry Issues Currently, 44 percent of Americans favor and 49 percent oppose the promotion of increased use of nuclear power according to a 2012 poll. 129 Energy provider Exelon, which operates 17 reactors in 10 plants, stated that economic and market conditions, especially low natural gas prices, made the "construction of new merchant nuclear power plants in competitive markets uneconomical now and for the foreseeable future". Financial experts believe 3% of nuclear reactors in the US are at risk of shutting down for these reasons. One important factor has been increased costs because of new NRC safety regulations following Fukushima – the added safety measures cost an average $15 million per reactor but could go up to as much as $40 million.

Indeed, Kewaunee Power Station in Wisconsin, built in 1974, is shutting down in mid-2013 for purely economic reasons. 130 The nuclear industry remains in need of federal support to continue. Existing reactors rely on tax subsidies and risk insurance to operate. New reactors, however, require far greater federal subsidies to be built and start operating, mainly due to high initial capital costs involved. The BRC in its 2012 report recommended continued federal funding for nuclear energy R&D, whether for nuclear reactor technology or for waste storage and disposal. 131

128

Wald, Matthew L., “Deal Advances Development of a Smaller Nuclear Reactor” The New York Times (2013): http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/21/business/tva-and-babcock-wilcox-in-nuclear-reactor-deal.html?_r=0 129 “As Gas Prices Pinch, Support for Oil and Gas Production Grows” The Pew Research Center (2012): 2. http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/3-19-12%20Energy%20release.pdf 130 “Exelon scraps Texas reactor project” Nuclear Engineering International (2012): http://www.neimagazine.com/news/newsexelon-scraps-texas-reactor-project-721 “Some merchant nuclear plants could face early retirement: UBS” Platts (2013): http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/ElectricPower/6007202 131

"Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): 106.

Koplow, Doug, “Nuclear Power: Still not Viable without Subsidies” Union of Concerned Scientists (2011): http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nuclear_power/nuclear_subsidies_report.pdf

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Research and Development The Obama Administration requested a reduction to DoE’s Office of Nuclear Energy’s budget at $770 million in 2013 for R&D programs, as well as nuclear power plant safeguards and security.

This is a reduction from the 2012 budget of approximately $860 million. On the other hand, the Republican-dominated House of Representatives wanted to slightly increase the 2012 amount for the 2013 budget.132 One of the main research programs is called Reactor Concepts, which had an annual budget of $115 million for 2012. It includes funding for the Generation IV NGNP project, as well as R&D for extending the life of existing reactors. Proponents of Generation IV argue that it will have costs comparable to other energy sources. However, the Obama Administration requested that the 2013 budget for the program be decreased, in response to low natural gas prices challenging the NGNP project. In contrast, the House wanted to increase the 2013 budget to $126 million. 133 Research programs for Small Modular Reactors are also important recipients of federal funds, and began in 2011. The 2012 budget for SMRs was $95 million; the administration requested $83 million for 2013; the House pushed for a budget of $114 million. 134 The program covers R&D efforts, but $67 million of the 2012 budget was directed at supporting a licensing framework for SMR technology. This is because NRC licenses only cover reactors with output greater than 700 megawatts, and new licensing efforts involve complex technicalities. 135 Over a five-year period from 2012 to 2016, the DoE is committed to funding $452 million to two SMR projects at most, helping them reach commercialization before 2022. The program is behind schedule. As of February 2013, the DoE has selected only one project of four proposals that applied for the funding. The total funding received will be negotiated between the DoE and the selected project, and may include the entire funding. The DoE has indicated however that it intends to provide additional funding opportunities in the future. 136 The BRC report recommended that there be greater federal support to energy related R&D and commercialization efforts of new nuclear technology. However, owing to budget difficulties and constraints, the commission argued that the federal government lay down a clear agenda for its nuclear energy R&D program, prioritizing areas of importance over research that would not produce economically viable technology. 137 132

"Nuclear Energy Policy" CRS (2012): 27.

"Nuclear Energy Policy" CRS (2012): 28-29.

Gronlund, Lisbeth, Lochbaum, David & Lyman, Edwin “Nuclear Power in a Warming World” Union of Concerned Scientists (2007): 59. http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nuclear_power/nuclear-powerin-a-warming-world.pdf 134 "Nuclear Energy Policy" CRS (2012): 29-30.

135 Ibid: 30.

136 “Taxpayer Subsidies for Small Modular Reactors” Taxpayers for Common Sense (2013): 2-3. http://www.taxpayer.net/images/uploads/downloads/SMR_Golden_Fleece_Backgrounder_2-27_FINAL.pdf "Small Nuclear Power Reactors" World Nuclear Association (2013): http://www.world133

nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Nuclear-Wastes/Radioactive-Waste-Management/ 137

"Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): 107.

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Waste Management There are 67,000 tons of SNF kept in storage (both wet & dry) at 77 sites located in 35 states across the country, with no permanent solution for the waste problem in place. 138 The recent report by the BRC has summed up the damaging effects of inadequately managing the nuclear waste program as follows: “Put simply, this nation’s failure to come to grips with the nuclear waste issue has already proved damaging and costly and it will be more damaging and more costly the longer it continues: damaging to prospects for maintaining a potentially important energy supply option for the future, damaging to statefederal relations and public confidence in the federal government’s competence, and damaging to America’s standing in the world—not only as a source of nuclear technology and policy expertise but as a leader on global issues of nuclear safety, non-proliferation, and security.” 139 For nearly 30 years since it began, there was no adequate legislation to manage nuclear waste, until the Nuclear Waste Policy Act in 1982. Under the act, including amendments in 1987, there would be two parallel pathways to managing the waste problem. First, the federal government would begin set up a nuclear repository (disposal) site by the 1990s and second; it would provide for temporary storage of SNF from nuclear plants. So far, both aspects of the act have not been followed through.

The 1982 legislation had a “polluter pays” policy that placed a fee on nuclear plants to cover the costs of a repository site so it would not be covered by taxpayers or the federal government.

The fee is directed to the Nuclear Waste Fund and currently totals $27 billion, increasing at $750 million per year; the legislation only allows it to be used for disposal sites, not storage.

However, due to a multitude of administrative and legislative hurdles, the fund cannot be used by the DoE and is practically frozen. The BRC recommended this problem be solved through Congress.140 Storage sites One of the problems of setting up a consolidated storage site is that the Nuclear Waste Policy Act allows for only one such facility, but only after a permanent repository site has been selected. However the original schedules failed and 30 years on there is still no permanent disposal site. The BRC noted this rigid legislation prevented implementing interim solutions and recommend it be changed to allow for temporary storage facilities not restricted by schedules and financed from the Nuclear Waste Fund. 141 Specifically, the BRC’s report recommended that one or more consolidated storage facilities should be set up. These would provide an immediate solution for SNF stranded at many sites across the nation, and dry storage can be used for decades. The issue of stranded SNF storage 138

“U.S. Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage” CRS (2012): Summary.

"Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): VI. 140 "Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): XI. 141 "Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): VIII. 139

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sites is a serious one, representing hazards of safety and security as well as highly burdening costs.142 In particular, attention must be given to SNF kept in storage at nuclear power plants that have stopped operating. There are currently ten shutdown plant sites in the U.S. with more than 2,800 tons of SNF. After shutting down, structures, systems, equipment and people are still needed to tend the SNF, which prevents the site from being fully decommissioned and used for other purposes. The costs for SNF storage at shutdown sites range from $4.5 million to $8 million per year, compared to a $1 million per year or less when the reactor is still in operation.

This means the savings from consolidating stranded spent fuel at a centralized facility would be enough to pay for that facility. Consolidation would also allow any new safety or security measures that might be required in the future to be implemented more cost-effectively. By 2050, there will be as many as 70 different shutdown reactor sites. The expenses of keeping SNF at these sites could be in the area of $350 to $550 million per year.143 There are other arguments besides costs for a consolidated SNF storage site. The experience in maintaining such a site would assist in developing a repository site. It would also offer more flexibility in dealing with the waste problem. Finally, the federal government is legally responsible for accepting and handling SNF from nuclear plants since 1998. Its failure to do so has made it liable to legal action from nuclear plants. So far the government has paid $1 billion in compensation for its inaction, and a total of 74 lawsuits have been filed against the government.144 There are several arguments against a consolidated storage site. The original legislation prevented a temporary storage site from being chosen before a permanent repository was selected. This was deliberately meant to prevent a storage site from becoming the de facto permanent disposal site. This scenario may occur given time and political “negligence”; policymakers will be relieved of the pressure and may consider the problem solved. Another fear is that SNF would be handled twice in this case; once from the nuclear plant to the storage plant, then again to a repository. This has risks of safety and security, it is argued. The last concern is that a consolidated storage site would be costly. 145 Disposal issue There were two projects that dealt with SNF disposal. The first project was the developing of a nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. It was singled out by Congress as the as the nation’s disposal site, and numerous legislation developed regulations specifically meant for Yucca Mountain. The DoE project ran from 1987 until terminated in 2009 by the Obama Administration after 20 years and billions of dollars spent. The project had numerous problems; 142

"Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): XII-XIII. "Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): 35-37.

“U.S. Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage” CRS (2012): 45.

143

“Nuclear Energy Policy” CRS (2012): 20.

144

“U.S. Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage” CRS (2012): 7.

"Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): 36-37.

145 "Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): XII. “U.S. Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage” CRS (2012): 44-45.

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lack of funds, rigid deadlines and highly constraining legislative requirements, and the fact that the State of Nevada and its residents strongly opposed the entire project. 146 Responding to the administration’s termination of the Yucca Mountain project, republicans in both houses of Congress introduced bills in 2012 requiring that the Nuclear Waste Fund be returned to nuclear power plants. Three-fourths of that money would be channeled back to customers, and the remainder would be used for storage improvements. 147 The other project is the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico. In contrast, this has been a far more successful project and two main factors have made that possible. First, the local community invited the federal government to explore disposal in the area. There were problems later on with the state of New Mexico, resulting in a court ruling that the project be paused. These problems eased when Congress approved waste disposal in the site and gave the state a hand in regulating the SNF being disposed on the site. Congress also designated the Environmental Protection Agency, not the DoE, to certify that the WIPP met safety standards and was not hazardous to the environment. These measures were successful; cooperation between the parties increased, soon the court ruling was reversed and progress continued. The second factor that helped the project succeed was that Congress granted the DoE much more authority in terms of managing and developing the WIPP, allowing for flexibility. After 20 years of research and testing, the WIPP began receiving SNF in 1999, and has operated ever since with considerable support from the state and local community. However, it is only allowed to receive SNF from nuclear weapons production. By the end of 2011, it had received nearly 10,200 shipments totaling 68,200 m 3 of SNF. The repository site itself is 600 meters deep. It is estimated to begin closing by 2030. 148 The BRC report recommended that any future disposal program draw from the experience of the WIPP. Choosing a repository site had to be achieved through consensus, and the program should avoid overkill regulations and deadlines. Instead, it should lay a program that is flexible and adapts as the situation develops, working to develop several projects to avoid a repeat of Yucca Mountain. Another problem with choosing a disposal site is that according to legislation it must hold SNF safely for 1 million years; a very unrealistic timeframe. Typically country regulations place timeframes of 10,000 to 100,000 years for repository sites; the former is used for the WIPP. The main argument is that timeframes should be scientifically achievable.

Involving different agencies with varying goals (such as the Environmental Protection Agency along with the NRC) allows for comprehensive, all-inclusive regulations for disposal sites, and coordination between them would be necessary. Furthermore, these standards should be “generic” – that is, they apply to any potential site. The report lastly recommends that, in addition to the current of deep geological disposal, other methods should be explored, particularly deep borehole disposal.149

146

“U.S. Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage” CRS (2012): 5-6.

"Graham’s Bill Seeks to Rebate Nuclear Waste Funds" Power Magazine (2012): http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/4470.html 148 "Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): 20-21, 57 149 "Report to the Secretary of Energy" BRC (2012): 56-57, 90-94.

147

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Fiscal Instruments The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPA‘05) addressed the fact that major expansion of nuclear energy production would require significant federal support. Since then, there has been continuing argument over whether this government support should be expanded or curtailed.

Some fiscal instruments provided for new nuclear reactors are discussed below.150 Loan Guarantees Under a loan guarantee agreement, the federal government would repay all covered loans if the borrower (the nuclear plant) defaulted. The guarantee can be restricted to part of the debt or cover it entirely.

The federal government is authorized to provide loan covering 100% of the debt as long as it covers only 80% of the project’s cost. Covering the entire debt raises fears it would encourage carelessness by both lenders and borrowers and increase default rates. The total amount of loan guarantees available for nuclear power plants is $18.5 billion. We previously noted $8.3 billion of this fund – just under half – have been granted to two new reactors in Georgia’s Vogtle Plant, reducing the plant’s costs by as much as $2 billion.151 Standby Support The nuclear industry frequently blames federal licensing delays for the construction cost overruns it experienced in the past such as additional interest, which represents a financial risk.

The EPA’05 addresses this by creating a standby support program, or regulatory risk insurance, which the DoE can use to cover these expenses. A total of $2 billion is provided for this program to six reactors. It must be noted though that delays caused by reactor owner’s own actions are not covered.152 For the first two reactors that begin construction, the DoE payments could cover all the eligible delay-related costs up to $500 million each. For the next four reactors, half of the eligible costs could be paid by DoE, with a payment cap of $250 million per reactor.153 Tax reductions There are several methods to reduce tax burdens such as tax deductions (reducing the tax rate), tax exemptions (relieving a certain income from taxation), and tax credits. Tax credits subtract from the amount of tax that is owed to the government. One type is the production tax credit, which provides reductions for energy production.

EPA’05 provides a 1.8-cents/kilowatt-hour tax credit for the first 6,000 megawatts of new nuclear capacity for the first eight years of operation. The entire tax credit thus can provide a total of $750 million annually, covering four or five reactors. The credit is not adjusted for

150

“Nuclear Energy Policy” CRS (2012): 20.

“Nuclear Energy Policy” CRS (2012): 22-23.

“Nuclear Power: Still not Viable without Subsidies” UCS (2011): 107.

152 “Nuclear Energy Policy” CRS (2012): 21.

“Nuclear Power: Still not Viable without Subsidies” UCS (2011): 107.

153 Ibid.

151

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inflation. They are available for reactors that filed licensing applications before 2008 and begin operating before 2021. 154 A different way of reducing tax burdens is by accelerated depreciation. Current legislation states that the cost of a nuclear reactor is depreciated over 15 years. For nuclear plants that operate for 40 to 60 years, this is a significant tax reduction. 155 Congressional Role The ongoing debate is between either increasing federal support to expand the nuclear industry or reducing and directing it to other forms of energy.

The nuclear industry on the one hand is pressuring for increased federal assistance, without which further expansion is not possible. Supporters of nuclear energy in government are many.

Obama considers developing “clean energy” sources, including nuclear, to be a priority, while his Republican predecessor George Bush supported EPA’05 which opened new avenues of support for the nuclear sector.

In 2010, Democratic Senator John Kerry (now Secretary of State) introduced the American Power Act, which addressed many of the nuclear industry’s demands for more support. It proposed the following measures 156: 

tripling the maximum amount of loan guarantees to $54 billion



further reducing the depreciation period for new reactors from 15 years to five years



expanding the 1.8 ¢/kW production credit from 6,000 MW to 8,000 MW



increasing the Standby Support from $2 billion to $6 billion covering 12 reactors



adding a 10% investment tax credit – a reductions 10% of the capital costs from the tax burdens; in effect similar to government subsidies

The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), the industry’s lobbying group has been calling for increased support. With regards to the production tax credit, the NEI proposed removing the 6,000 megawatt capacity limit, indexing it for inflation and extending the deadline for plants to begin operation four years to 2025. It also proposed introducing a 30% investment tax credit, and asked that the Standby Support program provide $500 million to all six reactors instead of just the first two.157 The legislation was ultimately not voted upon, but “died”. The principal justification given for supporting nuclear energy is its low GHG emissions and ability to reduce climate change.

Considering nuclear power as a “clean energy” source is a good enough reason among

154

“Nuclear Energy Policy” CRS (2012): 20.

“Nuclear Power: Still not Viable without Subsidies” UCS (2011): 107.

155 “Nuclear Power: Still not Viable without Subsidies” UCS (2011): 107.

156 157

“Nuclear Power: Still not Viable without Subsidies” UCS (2011): 109.

“Nuclear Energy Policy” CRS (2012): 21.

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supporters for supporting the expansion of the technology, whether through increased federal subsidies, R&D for new nuclear reactor technology and solutions for waste management. 158 The nuclear industry argues historical experience shows defaults are minimal, so that while loan guarantees may be huge, actual plant subsidy costs are low since the debts are reliably repaid.

Opponents however believe that delays and cost overruns for new plants will lead to much larger losses under the current loan guarantee program. They also believe nuclear energy has been diverting resources from alternatives such as solar and wind power for too long and argue these have the same potential for clean energy without the financial, safety and waste risks. 159

Federal Legislation This section is provided for by a report from the Congressional Research Service, and covers recent legislation proposed in congress but not yet passed. 160 Nuclear Power Plant Safety Act of 2011 Requires the NRC to revise its regulations within 18 months to ensure nuclear plants could: 

handle major disruptive events,



a loss of off-site power for 14 days



the loss of diesel generators for 72 hours (e.g.: including passive safety measures)

Spent fuel would routinely have to be moved from pool to dry-cask storage within a year after it had cooled sufficiently, and emergency planning would have to include multiple concurrent disasters. NRC cannot issue new licenses or permits until the revised regulations were in place.

Nuclear Fuel Storage Improvement Act of 2011 The bill authorizes the Secretary of Energy to provide payments to units of local government that, with the approval of the state governor, volunteer to host a “privately owned and operated temporary used fuel storage facility.”

Nuclear Waste Administration Act of 2012 The legislation establishes a new government entity, the Nuclear Waste Administration, tasked with developing central storage and disposal facilities for nuclear waste. Sites would require the consent of the host state and local governments.

Clean Energy Standard Act of 2012 Congress would establish minimum U.S. annual percentages of clean energy use, including nuclear power, starting at 24% in 2015 and rising to 84% in 2035. |

158

“Nuclear Energy Policy” CRS (2012): 26.

“The Future of Nuclear Power” Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2003): 79.

159 “Nuclear Energy Policy” CRS (2012): 24.

160

“Nuclear Energy: Overview of Congressional Issues” CRS (2012): 4-8.

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Restore America Act of 2011 The bill encourages tripling U.S. nuclear power capacity, requires licensing proceedings to continue for the Yucca Mountain waste repository, removes statutory capacity limits on the repository, prohibits the President from blocking or hindering nuclear spent fuel recycling, establishes a nuclear fuel reserve, and establishes expedited reactor licensing procedures.

Nuclear Power Licensing Reform Act of 2011 The proposed law requires evacuation planning within 50 miles of U.S. nuclear power plants and that reactor license renewals be subject to the same standards that would apply to new reactors.

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European Union Free Trade Agreement

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Introduction The European Union European Union is a unique economic and political partnership among 27 European countries.

EU started originally in Western Europe then it has expanded to include several central and eastern European countries. It was established after the treaty of Paris in 1952 with six founders which are Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Those six countries founded the European Economic Community, in 1958, and initially increasing economic cooperation between the six countries. This entity developed into the European Union, and over the last half century it has grown to include more are 27 members.

The population of the EU is over 500 million inhabitants, or 7.3% of the world population they live in an area of 4,324,782 square kilometers The EU's de facto capital is Brussels and the largest city is London.

There are different 23 languages in The EU. The GDP of EU in 2011 was $15,821 billion (estimate). The Service sector is 73.1% of the GDP of EU the industry sector is 25.1% of the GDP of EU. The agriculture sector is 1.8% of the GDP of EU. Inflation rate of EU in 2011 was 3.1%.

The unemployment rate of EU in 2011 was estimated to be 10.1%161.

The main Institutions of the EU include the European Commission, the Council of the European Union, the European Council, the Court of Justice of the European Union, the European Central Bank, the Court of Auditors, and the Parliament of Europe. The Parliament is elected every five years by EU citizens and it represents the lower house of legislative branch in the European Union. Governments defend their own countries' national interests in the Council of the European Union which represent the upper house of the legislative branch. The interests of the EU as a whole are promoted by the European Commission, whose members are appointed by national governments. The European Commission represents the executive branch in the European Union. Court of justice of the European Union represents the judicial branch it upholds the rule of European law and decides the legal disputes in the EU. The EU's broad priorities are set by the European Council, which brings together national leaders. 162 161

"How the EU works" European Union (2013): http://europa.eu/about-eu/index_en.htm.

"EU institutions and other bodies" European Union (2013): http://europa.eu/about-eu/institutionsbodies/index_en.htm.

162

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When we talk about the European Union we should distinguish between the EU which has 27 member states and the Eurozone (officially known as the Euro Area) which has 17 member states from the 27 member states of EU. If the EU is the economic and political union of its members, the Euro Area represents the economic and monetary union. It was established in 1999 with 11 states but now has 17 members who have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency. The European Central bank is the responsible for euro monetary policy and the national central banks of the members in Euro area share the responsibility with the European Central banks. The euro is the currency of the 330 million people who live in the 17 euro area countries. The members of Euro Zone are Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Greece, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia and Estonia. The single currency makes traveling between the 17 countries easier and enhances the political and economic relations. It removes currency exchange costs, makes international trade easier and gives the EU a more powerful voice in the world. Finally we can say that the Euro Area is a subset of the European Union. 163

European trade policy With just 7% of the world’s population, the EU's trade with the rest of the world accounts for around 20% of global exports and imports. The EU is the world’s biggest exporter and the second-biggest importer. Around two thirds of EU countries’ total trade is done with other EU countries. The United States is the EU’s most important trading partner, followed by China. In 2005, the EU accounted for 18.1% of world exports and 18.9% of imports. 164 The EU has many FTAs with several countries such as the FTA with Egypt, Israel, Turkey, South Korea, South Africa and Mexico. There are negotiations about other new FTAs Canada, India, Russia and Japan.

US trade policy In the last three decades U.S. trade policy became dominated by bilateral and regional negotiations to establish FTAs. The United States completed its first FTA with Israel in 1985 under President Reagan. Now, the United States has free trade agreements in force with 19 countries, mostly with Latin American and Middle Eastern countries.

In 2011, the trade deficit in goods reached $738 billion lower than the last peak of $836 billion in 2006, but greater than the deficits in 2009 and 2010 of $506 billion and $645 billion. The 2011 U.S. deficit on merchandise trade with China was $295.4 billion, with the European Union (EU27) was $99.9 billion, with Canada was $34.5 billion, with Japan was $63.2 billion, and with Mexico was $64.5 billion. With the so-called Asian Tigers (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan), the trade balance moved from a deficit of $5.5 billion in 2007 to surpluses increasing from $2.2 billion in 2008 to $15.4 billion in 2011. 165

163

"The euro- European Commission" European Union (2012): http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/euro/.

164 "The Economy" European Union (2013): http://europa.eu/about-eu/facts-figures/economy/.

165

Williams, Brock R., and Donnelly, Michael J. "U.S. International Trade: Trends and Forecasts." Congressional Research Service (2012): http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33577.pdf

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Bilateral Relations Extensive cooperation on a wide array of issues between the United States and Europe has made their relationship known as the transatlantic partnership. The two sides have many common values, shared interests and a long history between them. They have grown increasingly interdependent in terms of security and prosperity as the six-member-European Community expanded into the present 27 member-European Union. The ties between them include growing numbers & types of complex trade and financial activities. Not only are both sides important to the prosperity of each othersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; economies, they both are major factors in international trade policy. For example, the EU and its members are influential members of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank. These countries, together with the United States, wield considerable influence on these international organizations that are a major component of world globalization to the benefit of Western economies.

Economic Relations Overview The United States and the European Union share a large, dynamic and mutually beneficial economic relation, and despite the emergence of China and other Asian economies, the bilateral trade and investment flows between them have remained high and relatively constant over time. Although they jointly represent just over 10% of the world's population (800 million people) they constitute 40% of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic output and have the largest trade relation in the world, nearly a third of the global trade in 2013.

The United States and the EU member countries have roughly equivalent levels of economic development and are among the most advanced in the world. As a group they include the wealthiest populations. The US and the members of EU with a few exceptions are major producers of advanced technologies and services.

Trade Volume Every day about $4.2 billion of transatlantic trade (in goods and services) takes place. The value of the flow of goods, services, and capital income totaled more than $1.5 trillion in 2010, while direct investments in each otherâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s markets direct investment neared $3.7 trillion in 2011. 166 The EU is considered to be the largest goods trade partner of the US. In 2010 it accounted for 18.7% of total US exports and for 15.4 % of total US imports. The top U.S. exports to the EU have been aircraft, and machinery of various kinds including computers, integrated circuits, and office machine parts. A large share of U.S. imports from the EU consists of passenger cars; 166

Ahearn, Raymond J. "U.S.-EU Trade and Economic Relations" Congressional Research Service (2012): http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41652.pdf.

Office of the United States Trade Representative: European Union (2013): http://www.ustr.gov/countriesregions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union.

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machinery of various types, including gas turbines and computers. Germany, the United Kingdom, and France are the leading US trading partners, followed by the Netherlands and Italy.167 U.S. Trade Deficit For a number of years, the United States realized trade surpluses with the EU. However, since 1993, the United States has incurred growing trade deficits (i.e., the trade balance became more negative) with the EU, nearly $80 billion in 2010). Exports of goods of $1,497 billion in 2011 increased 16% from 2010 by $209 billion, while imports of goods of $2,236 billion in 2011 increased by $302 billion, also 16%. Though both exports and imports increased 16%, this led to an increase in the overall deficit for 2011 of $93 billion or 15% over 2010. Because imports are greater than exports, exports must increase at a greater percentage than imports to maintain the current trade balance. 168 In 2011, the trade deficit in goods reached $738 billion lower than the last peak of $836 billion in 2006, but greater than the deficits in 2009 and 2010 of $506 billion and $645 billion. The 2011 U.S. deficit on merchandise trade with China was $295.4 billion, with the European Union (EU27) was $99.9 billion, with Canada was $34.5 billion, with Japan was $63.2 billion, and with Mexico was $64.5 billion. With the so-called Asian Tigers (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan), the trade balance moved from a deficit of $5.5 billion in 2007 to surpluses increasing from $2.2 billion in 2008 to $15.4 billion in 2011.

Investment U.S. and EU investors together owned roughly $3.7 trillion in direct investment in each other's economy in 2011. The stock of U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in the EU totaled $2.3 trillion in 2011, and the stock of EU FDI in the United States was worth $1.6 trillion that year. U.S. FDI in EU countries is primarily concentrated in nonbank holding companies, finance/insurance, and manufacturing sectors. EU countries' FDI in the United States is mostly in the manufacturing, finance/insurance, wholesale trade, and information sectors. These investments account for four million workers on both sides of the Atlantic being directly employed by the respective affiliates of U.S. or European-based companies. The German company Siemens, for example, employs some 60,000 people in the United States and General Electric employs some 70,000 workers in Europe. 169

167

Cooper, William H. "EU-U.S. Economic Ties: Framework, Scope, and Magnitude." Congressional Research Service (2011): http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL30608.pdf 168 "EU-U.S. Economic Ties: Framework, Scope, and Magnitude" CRS (2011) Williams, Brock R., and Donnelly, Michael J. "U.S. International Trade: Trends and Forecasts." Congressional Research Service (2012): http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33577.pdf 169 "European Union" Office of the United States Trade Representative (2013): http://www.ustr.gov/countriesregions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union.

Ahearn, Raymond J. "U.S.-EU Trade and Economic Relations." CRS (2012): http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41652.pdf Jackson, James K. "U.S. Direct Investment Abroad." Congressional Research Service (2012): http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS21118.pdf

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Euro Crisis The high degree of economic interdependence carries risks for both sides. The 2008 financial crisis originated in the United States and was then transmitted to Europe. There were already problems brewing for many years beneath the surface in several European nations.

Overspending and government deception, along with the global financial crisis, brought about the European debt crisis in late 2009. It was the result of governments’ irresponsibly with the amount of debt they had, as well as their ability to pay this debt back. These countries also overspent on maintenance of large bureaucracies and made bad economic decisions. As they ignored EU budget requirements, they relied on the strength of the euro to appear healthy.

Northern European economies, kept the currency strong with positive economic output. The European economy is still recovering from the deep recession. EU members Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain are struggling to address sovereign debt crises which are slowing Europe’s economic growth and recovery.170 With a significant stake in European economic growth, there is a concern that U.S. exports may be adversely affected at a time when the Obama Administration hopes to double U.S. exports by 2015. More than two years after it began, the Eurozone debt crisis still threatens the transatlantic economy. Although European leaders have taken a series of unprecedented steps attempting to stem the crisis, the course of events has raised significant concerns about the future of the euro, the common currency shared by 17 EU member states. The extensive U.S. export, banking, and investment interests in Europe could be adversely affected by the Eurozone crisis, while the economic difficulties may stall U.S. exports to Europe, slowing or reversing U.S. growth and setting back the world economy.

Some analysts maintain that the EU will grind its way through the crisis with step-by-step measures, and that Europe could even emerge from the crisis stronger and more economically integrated. Others warn unpredictable and potentially disastrous consequences—such as a sovereign country defaulting, a spread to larger EU countries, or a break-up of the Eurozone through the departure of one or more members—cannot be ruled out. The U.S. Administration has consistently urged European leaders to take more decisive action to resolve the crisis.

Between September and December 2011 five congressional hearings were held on the various aspects and implications. The United States has supported the EU indirectly through international organizations, as direct involvement is difficult. The prevailing view, however, is that the crisis is Europe’s to solve.

170

Ahearn, Raymond J. "U.S.-EU Trade and Economic Relations." CRS (2012): http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41652.pdf Francis, David. "Is the U.S. Economy Protected From the Euro Crisis?" U.S. News (2012): http://money.usnews.com/money/business-economy/articles/2012/08/17/is-the-us-economy-protected-fromthe-euro-crisis

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Foreign Relations Beyond the potentially considerable impact on the U.S. economy, some analysts and officials have expressed concern about the potential effects of the debt crisis on transatlantic political and security cooperation. Such observers worry that an inward-focused EU, spending less in areas such as defense and aid, and potentially holding less attraction for other international actors, would offer less relevance and less capability as a partner of the United States in addressing global challenges. 171 Both Europe and the United States have a shared history that carries common values and gives a foundation for maintaining close cultural, economic, social and political stances. The ties were strengthened by the American involvement in both World Wars, and after 1945 the future of the U.S. was tied to Europe as the Western World stepped into the Cold War with the Soviet Union. After the Second World War, the U.S. initiated a massive aid program to sixteen European countries aimed at helping economic revival and strengthening democracy; it was started in 1948 and was officially known as the European Recovery Program, or ERP, but is more commonly known as the Marshall Plan, after the man who announced it, US Secretary of State George C. Marshall. The generosity of the Marshall Plan rebuilt not just the economies of Western Europe, but also the damaged political system.

To assess and develop transatlantic cooperation, the European Union and the USA hold regular presidential summits. They came into being as a result of the November 1990 transatlantic declaration which for the first time formalized the USA’s contacts with what was then the European Community.

With the emergence of a European common foreign and security policy (CFSP) and the European security and defense policy (ESDP), the EU became an increasingly more solid international partner in many areas, beyond trade matters. In addition, a joint response by the USA and Europe to a growing number of external challenges was needed, for example, in relation to the threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and of international terrorism, to the fragile peace process in the Middle East, and to the need to safeguard economic growth and employment. It was thus necessary to go beyond the regular consultations introduced by the transatlantic declaration.

One of the most important US- EU summits was held on 3 December 1995, in Madrid, as both sides signed the new transatlantic agenda (NTA), which provided for joint action in four major fields:    

Promoting peace and stability, democracy and development around the world; Responding to global challenges; Contributing to the expansion of world trade and closer economic relations; Building bridges across the Atlantic.

171

Mix, Derek E. "The United States and Europe." Congressional Research Service (2012): https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS22163.pdf.

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Points of cooperation and disputes But at some points there are a number of issues over which US and Europe disagree, some these are cultural for example the US usage of the death penalty. And some are on international level.  



US described as being unilateral in nature while the EU often said to take a multilateral approach United sates is seen as pro- Israel while EU is pro – Arabs and this was obvious in their response toward the Palestinians declaration as non-observing country in the United Nation as US vote was NO , and most of EU members said Yes. The Iraq War not only divided opinions within European nations and within the U.S., but between European nations themselves, with some states supporting of military action, and some against. The European public opinion was staunchly opposed to the war. This caused a major transatlantic rift, especially between the states led by France and Germany on the one hand who were against military action, and the United States with the United Kingdom and Poland among others, who supported the war.

Examples of co-operation on foreign policy   

Afghanistan: After the fall of the Taliban in 2001, Europe and America focused their attentions on rehabilitating the area.

Africa: Both committed to preventing poverty, ill treatment, human rights discourse, fighting, and dictatorships.

Asia: for example after the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 both Europe and America provided a significant degree of aid to deal with the disastrous effects of the event.

Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement (TAFTA): A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is a treaty between two or more countries to establish a free trade area where commerce in goods and services can be conducted across their common borders, without tariffs or hindrances. Member countries usually impose a uniform tariff on trade with non-member countries.

A Proposed Idea of a free trade agreement (FTA) between The U.S. and E.U. was raised in the 1990s. The steps and negotiations have passed through many stages, until U.S. President Barrack Obama opened his second term this year with an initiation to open serious negotiations with the European Union to bring TAFTA to life. A welcoming signs from E.U was reported, However voices from both sides have raised questioning the critical time the world is facing and whether it is the right time for TAFTA or not.

Some analysts argue that a new U.S.-EU initiative pushing for a more fully integrated transatlantic market could be both timely and mutually beneficial. Numerous studies have concluded that reducing regulatory burdens and harmonizing standards could provide a significant boost to GDP on both sides of the Atlantic. The United States and the EU have made a number of attempts to reduce remaining non-tariff and regulatory barriers to trade and 108

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investment. Most recently, the Transatlantic Economic Council (TEC), headed on both sides by cabinet/ministerial-level appointees, was created in 2007 and tasked with advancing the process of regulatory cooperation and barrier reduction.

Cooperation is particularly important given that global economic wealth and political power is shifting towards emerging economies such as China, India, and Brazil. While these developing countries are providing new sources of economic growth, they have different views on the future direction of the world economy. This could create a need for greater U.S.-EU cooperation in addressing global challenges that are important for job creation and growth for both sides. 172

History In 1995, American and European leaders set up the Transatlantic Business Dialogue (TABD). The TABD was convened by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the European Commission to serve as the official dialogue between American and European business leaders and U.S. cabinet secretaries and EU commissioners. Membership was comprised of chief executive officers or chairmen of American and European companies operating in the United States, Europe and globally. The TABD agreed on a new Transatlantic Agenda, which called for the creation of a New Transatlantic Marketplace. Consultations at governmental and nongovernmental levels aimed to find ways to strengthen economic cooperation and tackle any remaining trade barriers. However, little progress was made in the years following the consultations. 173 In 1998, The European Commission published a Communication entitled ‘The New Transatlantic Marketplace’ in which it proposed ambitious measures to achieve better economic integration between the two partners, including the complete elimination of industrial tariffs by 2010 and the creation of bilateral free trade area in services. Unfortunately, support for the Commission’s proposals was limited and a far less ambitious Transatlantic Economic Partnership (TEP) was negotiated and signed At the London EU-U.S. Summit later that year.174 In 2005, the process was unsuccessfully re-started with the launch of the Transatlantic Economic Integration and Growth Initiative.

In 2007, At the EU-US Summit E.U Commission President Barroso, German Chancellor Merkel and U.S. President Bush signed the “Framework for Advancing Transatlantic Economic Integration between the United States of America and the European Union". Key elements of this framework were the adoption of a work program of cooperation to achieve regulatory harmonization in selected areas, and the establishment of the Transatlantic Economic Council 172

Ahearn, Raymond J. "U.S.-EU Trade and Economic Relations." CRS (2012): Transatlantic Business Council "History and Mission of Transatlantic Business Council." n.d.: http://transatlanticbusiness.org/histroy-mission/ Louati, Claudia, and Alexander Whalen. "EU-US Trade Relations: Towards a Free Trade Agreement" Nouvelle Europe (2012): http://www.nouvelle-europe.eu/en/eu-us-trade-relations-towards-free-trade-agreement.

174 "The New Transatlantic Marketplace" United States Mission to the European Union (1998): http://aei.pitt.edu/6799/1/6799.pdf.

"The New Transatlantic Marketplace" Commission of the European Communities (1998): http://aei.pitt.edu/6799/1/6799.pdf 173

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(TEC) to oversee, guide and accelerate the implementation of this work program. Despite these initiatives and increased momentum at the end of the 2000s, Practical achievements were limited.175 In November 2011, an EU-US High Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth was created with the aim of “identifying new ways of strengthening our economic relationship and developing full potential” of the transatlantic partnership. Jointly chaired by the European Commissioner for Trade Karel de Gucht and US Trade Representative Ron Kirk, its mandate includes the examination of existing barriers to trade and assessment of opportunities and ways to eliminate them.176 Wide support was expressed for this initiative, as demonstrated by favorable declarations by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister James Cameron in late January 2012. The interim report of the Working Group published in June 2012 calls for the negotiation of a comprehensive agreement, which could include “ambitious reciprocal market opening in goods, services, and investment, and address the challenges of modernizing trade rules and enhancing the compatibility of regulatory regimes”.

In particular, the Group calls for the elimination of all duties on bilateral trade and a commitment from both sides to the reduction of regulatory barriers. It however does not directly call for the negotiation of a fully-fledged free trade agreement. 177 On November 29, 2012, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tipped the U.S. hand when she said at the Brookings Institution, "That’s why we are discussing possible negotiations with the European Union for a comprehensive agreement that would increase trade and spur growth on both sides of the Atlantic. We have more work to do, including addressing longstanding barriers to trade and market access. But if we work at it and if we get this right, an agreement that opens markets and liberalizes trade would shore up our global competitiveness for the next century, creating jobs and generating hundreds of billions of dollars for our economies. So I hope we will continue working to find a way forward, and make stronger trade and investment ties a major strategic goal of our transatlantic alliance. 178 On the 1st of January 2013, Transatlantic Business Council (TBC) was created as the result of a merger between Transatlantic Business Dialogue (TABD) and European-American Business Council (EABC). TBC creates a stronger business voice for its 90 plus member companies. It 175

"The European Union and the United States Initiative to Enhance Transatlantic Economic Integration and Growth" European Commission (2005): http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/march/tradoc_127675.pdf "EU-USA - Transatlantic Economic Council" European Commission (2013) http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/international/cooperating-governments/usa/transatlantic-economiccouncil/index_en.htm "Framework for Advancing Transatlantic Economic Integration between the European and the United States of America" (2013): http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/international/files/tec_framework_en.pdf 176 "U.S. and Europe: A Revitalized Global Partnership." U.S. Department of State (2013): http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/11/201223.htm.

177 "EU-U.S. High Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth" European Commission (2013): http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149557.pdf 178 "U.S. and Europe: A Revitalized Global Partnership." U.S. Department of State (2012): http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/11/201223.htm

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advocates for the timely development of a comprehensive transatlantic agreement that further liberalizes trade and investment and promotes greater regulatory convergence, and continues engagement with forums such as the U.S.-EU High Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth (HLWG).179 On the 12th of February 2013, U.S. President Barack Obama said during his speech at the State of the Union “tonight, I am announcing that we will launch talks on a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union – because trade that is free and fair across the Atlantic supports millions of good-paying American jobs." 180

Why American and European leaders considering TAFTA? Studies have showed that TAFTA could stimulate global growth—with no new budgetary allocations—by an estimated of 1.5 to 2 percent and help pull both sides of the Atlantic out of their financial crises. According to the Dutch consultancy Ecorys, erasing non-tariff barriers would add 0.7 percentage points to the EU economy and 0.3 percentage points to the U.S. economy, a great development for the current growth rates. 181 Away from GDP growth, some studies claimed that TAFTA is expected to create more Job vacancies on both sides of the treaty. Companies on both sides of the Atlantic are deeply engaged in each other's businesses. European companies employ more Americans than any other foreign nationality and are by far the most important source of onshore jobs in the United States, and vice versa. Which means a treaty between both of them would ease the transfer of workers as well as increasing direct investments which will lead to a number of job opportunities. 182 Regarding it as a triumph at a time of WTO paralysis, a comprehensive treaty covering two-way trade of currently more than $600 billion per year, and foreign direct investment of more than $3 trillion, could even become the 21st century's prime institutional link between the North American and European twins. Expanding the European Union's single market to include North America and cover half of today's global output and 800 million high-end consumers—or 950 million, if Canada and Mexico join in. With that weight, it could set the world's regulatory benchmarks for trade in goods and services for decades to come. 183 Furthermore, the agreement allows Europe and the U.S. to address together the rise of China.

Given China’s strong position in the world trading arena, some fear that Chinese will dictate 179

"History and Mission of Transatlantic Business Council" Transatlantic Business Council n.d. http://transatlanticbusiness.org/histroy-mission/ 180 "President Barack Obama's State of the Union Address" The United States White House (2013): http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/02/12/president-barack-obamas-state-union-address 181 Suominen, Kati. "The Case for TAFTA" European Commission (2013): http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/13/the_case_for_tafta_us_europe_free_trade 182 Hamilton, Daniel S., and Pedro Schwartz "A Transatlantic Free Trade Area – A Boost to Economic Growth" New Direction (2013): http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/publications/articles/TAP_op_ed_Jan_2012_final.pdf 183 Pond, Elizabeth "What Free Trade Means for Transatlanticism" World Policy Blog (2013): http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/02/08/what-free-trade-means-transatlanticism

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standards and neither Europe nor the U.S. wants to reach that point. China is the EUâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s second largest trading partner behind the U.S. and the EU is Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s biggest trading partner. Both the U.S. and Europe face increasing trade deficits with China and TAFTA may provide much needed balance as Europe and the U.S. increase exports and imports among each other. 184 Another Geopolitical value of TAFTA is sending a strong signal to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) that there is still life in the good old nations of the west. This could force BRICS to get back to the Doha table with new proposals and strategies after the failure of the recent negotiation rounds. 185 Although studies showing mutual benefits of TAFTA along with the presence of American and European leaders' will to reach a common ground, a lot of barriers are facing the executives of both sides to implement such a treaty. The labor unions in both sides of the Atlantic are not interested in the current liberalization rate of economy, Especially in EU countries like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, as well as the European agriculture sector. American trade and labor unions who had a lot of critics on NAFTA "North American Free Trade Agreement" and its effect on the American Jobs could have a lot of suspects on the effect of such treaty on them.

Moreover, however the overall agreement is interesting for the executives in both sides, what lies behind it is a long way of arguments on details.

Economic Barriers Non-Tariff Barriers 186 These are also known as regulatory barriers or technical barriers to trade. They are mandatory technical regulations and standards that products should comply with.

The U.S. and EU frequently have differing regulatory frameworks for both goods and services, with the purposes of protecting consumers and the environment. However, U.S. and European multinational companies doing business across both countries have to go through the same procedures twice. Many of them are redundant, at least when done more than once, and these diverging frameworks are the most serious barriers to transatlantic commerce. These non-tariff barriers add substantially to costs and are more harmful than tariffs or quotas.

Many efforts have been made over the past 15 years to tackle and reduce these behind-theborder regulatory barriers, but with only limited success. Predicated on the notion that past initiatives failed to make significant progress in enhancing regulatory progress, the Transatlantic Economic Council (TEC) was established in April 2007 at the U.S.-EU Summit. The TEC was designed to foster regulatory cooperation and to reduce or eliminate regulatory burdens to trade. The TEC also covers issues such as investment, innovation, intellectual property rights, secure trade, and financial markets. The ultimate aim of the TEC is to create an integrated transatlantic market.

184

Pond, Elizabeth "What Free Trade Means for Transatlanticism" World Policy Blog (2013): http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/02/08/what-free-trade-means-transatlanticism 185 Techau, Jan. "The Geopolitics of TAFTA." Carnegie Endowment (2013): http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/01/29/geopolitics-of-tafta/f6rl 186 "U.S.-EU Trade and Economic Relations" CRS (2012): 4-6

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The Summit leaders also created an advisory group to the TEC and invited the U.S. Congress, along with the European Parliament, to accept a new, more substantive role in transatlantic regulatory cooperation by becoming part of the advisory group. In short, the TEC was designed to deal with some of the perceived shortcomings of previous transatlantic regulatory initiatives by providing high level political leadership, more involvement of legislators and other stakeholders in the regulatory process, and a greater emphasis on results than process.

By reducing gaps in regulatory policies and standards, the United States and EU hope to benefit thousands of companies engaged in transatlantic trade by reducing costs, reducing time-tomarket, and improving competitiveness vis-à-vis third countries.

A 2009 study commissioned by the European Commission estimated that streamlining these kinds of non-tariff barriers would bring potential gains of $158 billion in annual GDP and increase exports to the United States by 2%. EU sectors that stand to benefit include motor vehicles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food, and electrical goods. The United States, it was estimated, stands to gain some $53 billion in annual GDP and a 6% increase in annual exports to the EU, with the primary beneficiaries being sectors such as electrical goods, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, financial services, and insurance.

Areas with non-Tariff Barriers 187 Non-tariff barriers have been a great problem in chemicals, where the U.S. and EU have fundamentally different regulations. Pharmaceuticals are another sector with regulatory differences that have been described as bewildering. Aside differing practices, public health policy is a major area that is still decided on a national basis, which means regulations vary among the EU itself. Yet another example comes from the automotive sector, where American and European car makers sell similar products in the United States and Europe. But there are different standards and testing requirements for all kinds of parts, ranging from headlights, wiper blades, light beams, and seat belts to crash standards—which it is claimed result in absolutely no differences in safety.

Negotiating a Zero-Tariff Agreement 188 Successive efforts at trade liberalization have dramatically reduced tariffs on transatlantic trade in goods, including food, to very low levels. In the United States, the simple average tariff imposed on a most-favored-nation basis on imports of manufactured goods and agricultural products is around 4% and 9%, respectively. Comparable figures for the EU are 4% on manufactures and 18% on agricultural products.

As low as these tariffs may be, there is interest in the U.S. and EU business communities to eliminate all remaining tariffs imposed on U.S.-EU trade through a bilateral negotiation.

Support for the proposal is based on a combination of factors, including the agreement’s ability to generate economic benefits for both sides and including reducing costs to companies that pay tariffs on trade with their foreign affiliates and re-energize transatlantic economic ties.

187

Ahearn, Raymond J. “Transatlantic Regulatory Cooperation” Congressional Research Service (2009): 3 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34717.pdf 188 "U.S.-EU Trade and Economic Relations" CRS (2012): 6-7

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One study estimated that there would be significant trade and welfare benefits for both sides from a full elimination of tariffs on U.S.-EU merchandise trade over time. In the aggregate, the study projects that total EU exports to the United States could increase by up to $69 billion in value, or 18 percent, while U.S. exports to the EU could rise by up to $53 billion, or 17%. In terms of increases in GDP, the EU economy could gain anywhere from $58 billion to $85 billion and the U.S. economy anywhere from $59 billion to $82 billion. These potential gains, according to the authors, are considerable in absolute terms and higher than in most preferential free trade agreements signed by the United States or EU, or agreements currently being negotiated.

Negotiating a Barrier-Free Investment Agreement189 Foreign investment has overtaken trade as the major component of U.S.-EU economic relations. While both sides together account for around 40% of world trade in goods and services, they account for over 60% of the inward stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) and 75% of the outward stock of FDI. Moreover, Europe and the United States remain the most profitable regions of the world for each otherâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s multinational corporations, accounting for about half of total global earnings.

These high levels of cross-investment are facilitated by two of the most open and hospitable climates for foreign investment in the world. At the same time, pressures for investment protection have surfaced from time to time and some restrictions on foreign investment persist.

European companies seeking to invest in the United States face two possible obstacles. The first are U.S. restrictions on foreign ownership in the shipping, energy, and communications sectors.

The second relates to the review process the United States has established for examining foreign acquisitions, mergers, and takeovers from a national security perspective. While this interagency process, known as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), has generally run smoothly, the EU has raised concerns about the legal and economic costs for firms to circumvent or undergo CFIUS review.

The EU position with regard to investment restrictions is more complicated. EU law requires that any company established under the laws of one member state must receive national treatment in all member states, regardless of a companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ownership. While EU law does impose some restrictions on foreign investment, member states impose a range of different policies and practices on foreign investors that are far more restrictive.

Prior to the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty in December 2009, the European Commission shared competence with member states on investment issues. Member states negotiated their own bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and generally retained responsibility for their own investment regimes; while the EU negotiated investment provisions in EU preferential trade agreements. Under Lisbon, the competence for investment rests solely with the EU. However, foreign direct investment is not defined in the Treaty, leaving unclear the practical implications for EU efforts to negotiate investment agreements and set EU investment rules. If member states and the European Commission agree on a broad definition, the EU will have much 189

"U.S.-EU Trade and Economic Relations" CRS (2012): 8-9

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greater authority on this issue and may be eager to enter into a major negotiation to demonstrate its new competence over investment policy.

Calls for a U.S-EU investment agreement that would create a barrier-free climate for bilateral investment and serve as a model for the rest of the world are not new. In the past, some have proposed that agreement could be modeled on the current bilateral investment treaties, with a dispute resolution process that would allow foreign investors and host governments to address their differences. The accord could also establish minimal standards for corporate governance and transparency designed to ensure that the host country has reasonable confidence in the identity and management of the investing company, and including new issues such as ecommerce, competition policy, and limits on the use of local (sub-federal) investment incentives. Once an accord was in place, foreign investors would be able to invest in all sectors of the economy, with exceptions only for national security.

Any attempt to harmonize processes for considering national security exceptions would likely be very difficult. While the U.S. CFIUS process has been in place for many years, there is no similar overarching framework in Europe that allows for security considerations to be balanced against commercial interests in a systematic way. Arguably, a great diversity of attitudes towards foreign investment throughout Europe could make it difficult to develop an EU-wide approach.

Transatlantic FTA Opportunities vs. Threats Opportunities The potential FTA between U.S. and EU is a very debatable issue which has many advantages and disadvantages. There are many reasons that make this FTA an opportunity for both sides U.S. and EU for example the size of the partners. Because free trade between big economies has bigger effects than trade deals between smaller economies, even when â&#x20AC;&#x201C; or perhaps because â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the two big economies in question are already deeply integrated. Most of the FTAs signed in the past are between two smaller economies, or between a big economy and a small economy. The gains for a big economy in the latter form of agreements are typically small but in the case of the FTA between U.S. and EU the gains will be very big for them because they have a strong economy.

The positive effects of the potential TAFTA on U.S. and EU economy: There are various gains due to the removal of tariffs. In simplest terms, the trading firms no longer have to pay those tariffs; these savings essentially go directly to their bottom line. In the highly integrated US-EU context, with substantial intra-firm transatlantic trade, this simple gain, even with low tariffs, can have significant cash flow benefits. Perhaps most importantly, intermediate and final consumers benefit from lower prices.

As a result of the potential TAFTA if we take the dynamic gains into account, the EU will increase its GDP by an estimated $46bn to $69bn in value, that is, GDP in 2015 would be 0.320.47 percent higher than it would be without the elimination of tariffs. Similarly, the US will benefit from estimated GDP gains by $135bn to $182bn, or 0.99-1.33 percent in the core scenarios. Trade creation between the two trade blocks is responsible for the dynamic gain in 115

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the EU and the US. Due to trade diversion as a result of the cut in tariffs between the EU and the US, “third” countries generally face GDP losses. The size of these losses is rather small. 190 Welfare gains, expressed in national income effects, depend on a mix of a locative efficiency effects, global scale effects, investment and savings effects and terms-of-trade effects.

Depending on the scenario the dynamic welfare gains reach from $58bn to $85bn in the EU and from $59bn to $82bn for the US. A “monetary” welfare gain means that the region’s overall economy is better off at the final year (after the effects of trade liberalization and productivity marched through the economy between 2010 and 2015) than it otherwise would have been in the absence of that change in trade policy. 191 The potential TAFTA will affect different sectors in EU and U.S. For the EU, the leading sectors in terms of an increase in value of sectoral output are motor vehicles, light manufacturing, textiles, mineral products, transport equipment, electronics and other machinery goods. In the EU the top five tradable goods sectors account for 36 percent in sectoral output growth. The leading tradable goods sectors in the US are motor vehicles, electronics, textiles, transport equipment and light manufacturing. The top five US sectors contribute around 30 percent to total sectoral output growth. In both regions the construction sector will contribute a substantial amount to total sectoral output growth. Depending on the scenario total sectoral output will rise to up to $140 billion in the EU and up to $93 billion in the US. Bearing in mind the huge levels of non-tariff barriers applied to agriculture-related products and services, the effect on total output should be significantly higher if non-tariff barriers are removed progressively. 192 The analysis shows that total EU exports to the US will expand by up to 18 percent in value; US exports to the EU market will expand by roughly the same amount. The results reported here exhibit an interesting pattern: the relative gains from the trade liberalization applied in the analysis are more or less the same for both trade blocs. On an aggregate level, total EU exports to the US will increase by up to $69 billion in value, or 18 percent. US total exports to the EU will rise by up to $53 billion in value, or 17 percent. In terms of export creation in the EU, textiles, manufacturing and agriculture-related sectors gain most from the tariff elimination. In the US exports from agriculture-related sectors generally gain most from the elimination of tariffs, followed by textiles and manufacturing. Since the highest tariffs are currently applied to agriculture-related sectors and textiles those industries significantly gain from the reduction of tariffs. It is obvious that, in absolute terms, the machinery and chemicals industries contribute most to the overall rise in exports for both the EU and the US. In the EU, another substantial contributor to the overall rise in exports is the motor vehicle industry. For the US, it is the transport equipment sector. In the EU, the motor vehicle industry together with the machinery, the chemical industry and textiles account for 65 percent of the total rise in exports to the US. 190

Erixon, Fredrik, and Bauer, Matthias, “A Transatlantic Zero Agreement: Estimating the Gains from Transatlantic Free Trade in Goods” European Centre for International Political Economy (2010): 12. http://www.ecipe.org/media/publication_pdfs/a-transatlantic-zero-agreement-estimating-the-gains-fromtransatlantic-free-trade-in-goods.pdf 191 Ibid: 12-13.

192 Ibid: 13.

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On the other side of the Atlantic, machinery, motor vehicles, electrical machinery, transport equipment and chemicals account for 75 percent in the rise of total exports to the EU. 193 New strategy in dealing with the Chinese threat: China presents major trade challenges and opportunities for both the United States and the EU. Three decades ago, China’s trade with the United States and the EU was negligible. Today China is the EU’s second largest trade partner, after the United States, and its biggest source of imports. For the United States, China is currently the second largest trading partner (after the EU), its third largest export market, and its biggest supplier of imports. China’s emergence as the world’s second largest economy and the world’s biggest merchandise exporter has been facilitated greatly by the openness of markets in the United States and Europe. As shown in, U.S. and EU trade deficits with China in recent years have been huge in absolute terms and they have also constituted a large share of each side's merchandise deficits with the world. In 2010, the trade deficit with China constituted 43% of the overall U.S. trade deficit. For the EU, its trade deficit with China is more than twice as large as its trade deficit with the world. At the same time, China’s huge population and booming economy have made it a large, and one of the fastest growing markets for U.S. and EU exports and investment. 194 The FTA negotiations will inevitably promote global trade liberalization. This will bring a new driving force for China to enter further into globalization as well as more challenges. The cooperation and lowering of trade barriers so far between the EU and the U.S. is already bringing side effects to external players such as China. In addition, both the US and EU have been seeking to build new trade rules through regional trade arrangements. Although China has entered into the inner circle of world trade, it has limited power in setting rules, and the new conditions related to environment, labor and so on will pose further challenges. 195 By creating a more integrated and preferential market between them, the E.U and the U.S can alleviate some of their trade deficits, while this move will force China to liberalize its economy to international trade further.

Threats The impact of the European Union economic crisis on U.S. economy: 196 The concern is that as a result of an FTA and a removal of trade barriers with the EU, the added integration and interdependence will expose the U.S. economy to various threats. These are discussed below.

U.S. banks are 'tethered' to those in Europe European banks are at the center of the crisis, having become overextended in debt-ridden countries or in the nations that will be asked to bail them out.

193

Ibid: 15-16.

"U.S.-EU Trade and Economic Relations" CRS (2012): 11-13.

195 Weiwen, He, “China must brace for impact of possible EU-US free trade agreement” Global Times (2013): http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/764321.shtml 196 Wolf, Richard, “Five ways the European debt crisis could affect the U.S.” USA Today (2011): http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/world/story/2011-10-27/eurozone-crisis-deal/50963370/1 194

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The largest exposures aren't in the most troubled nations sharing the euro, such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland. U.S. banks have about $700 billion in outstanding loans in Great Britain, which isn't directly affected. They have about $300 billion each in France and Germany, the leaders of the euro zone. And they have about $50 billion each in Italy and Spain â&#x20AC;&#x201D; countries that could be dragged into default if the crisis escalates.

Even so, the USA's largest financial houses have billions of dollars in credit risks in the five most endangered nations: Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain.

Bank of America's exposure in those five countries was $16.7 billion at the end of June, JPMorgan Chase's exposure was $14 billion and Citigroup's was $13.5 billion, according to their quarterly filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs each had exposures of $3 billion to $5 billion. The banks reported they had tried to reduce their exposure to bad debt by buying insurance.

While the figures are large, however, they overstate the problem. The loans are spread between foreign banks, governments and corporations, and many are hedged or collateralized.

Big banks such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have enough capital to cope with any likely losses. The impact here could be felt on several levels: Employees of European banks such as UBS and Deutsche Bank could see their jobs threatened if a recession hits Europe and those employers retrench. U.S. banks could further tighten credit to small businesses in this country.

A potential threat to U.S. exports and investments in Europe More than 20% of all U.S. exports go to Europe, making it the nation's largest trading partner.

About 14% go to the 17 euro zone countries, behind only Canada and Mexico.

Total exports to the European Union were $177 billion in the first eight months of 2011, up 15% from last year. Even so, the U.S. is running a $65 billion trade deficit with the EU. Germany and Great Britain are by far the USA's biggest trading partners. Exporters' exposure in the Southern European nations at the heart of the crisis isn't as great. Italy imported only $14 billion in goods and services from the USA last year; Spain, $10 billion. The total for Greece: $1 billion.

The real worry for U.S. business is that financial panic might cause a broad recession throughout the euro zone, quelling the appetites of French and German consumers and businesses for U.S. products. Standard & Poor's bond rating agency believes Europe will avoid a recession and that the USA is at serious risk only if Europe has a very severe downturn, deputy chief economist Beth Ann Borzino said this week. JPMorgan Chase economist Joseph Lupton says the company believes Europe already is in a new recession, but the United States is moving tentatively in a better direction.

Industries that are most dependent on European trade include chemicals, transportation, computers and electronics. Companies such as Microsoft, IBM and Hewlett-Packard are heavily invested in Europe, as are aerospace companies such as Boeing. Fluctuations in demand for U.S. products in Europe will fluctuate back to the American economy.

Other analysts say the impact might not be great. If U.S. exports to Europe dropped by 20%, it would represent 4% of total U.S. exports. Because exports make up about 15% of U.S. gross domestic product, that would mean less than a 1% decline in the economy.

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The euro zone is the biggest market for U.S. companies with direct foreign investments. More than half the sales of American-owned foreign affiliates are in Europe. That means fewer profits that can be reinvested in American jobs, new models and more efficient factories.

Less known is what European investments U.S. companies have made through more complex financial arrangements, such as hedge funds, credit default swaps and insurance.

The challenges which faced the TAFTA before: 197 In the 1990s a TAFTA was a non-starter politically for a number of reasons. Most important were probably the following five: 1. It was feared a TAFTA would indicate that the U.S. and the EU had given up on the Multilateral system at the very birth of the WTO, and were not committed to bringing the developing countries into the management of the trade system, as had been promised at the conclusion of the Uruguay Round.

2. It was thought that subsidies and trade restrictions on agriculture were so pervasive and systemic that an FTA could not succeed, or would be opposed by agricultural interests on both sides of the Atlantic, and/or that agricultural subsidies and market access were better dealt with in a multilateral setting.

3. That tariff barriers between the U.S. and the EU were so trivial (5 percent or less) the trade creation would not be worth the political effort, or that the peaks (especially textiles and apparel, but also chemicals) were too high.

4. The focus of U.S. trade policy in the 1990s was the Pacific, where the U.S. had hopes to convert the APEC process to a more consequential basin-wide free trade arrangement of some sort, and therefore concern in Washington was that a transatlantic approach would annoy our Asian partners, who provided most of the more significant 5-The more important trade barriers between the U.S. and EU are regulatory differences that either prevent trade from taking place altogether, or burden exporters with standards and testing requirements that increase costs beyond those of nominal (and explicit) tariff barriers.

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Ries, Charles, â&#x20AC;&#x153;Is it Time to (Re) Consider a TAFTA?â&#x20AC;? Center for Transatlantic Relations: 1-2. http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/sebin/w/w/us-eu_book_tafta__charles_ries.pdf

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Chairlady: Heba Moustafa Vice chairman: Mahmoud Gamal Ranking Member: Hossam Shaker Party Consultant: Shaimaa Abdel kareem 120

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About The Committee

History Committee on Judiciary was established in 1816 as one of the original standing committees in the United States senate and the republican Senator Dudley Chase of Vermont was appointed as the first chairman of the Committee. The number of members serving on the Committee from Congress to Congress varies; today 18 members from different states serve on the United States Senate Judiciary Committee.

Jurisdiction Senate committee of Judiciary has the role of overseeing the Department of Justice and the agencies under the Department's jurisdiction, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Homeland Security.

It considers legislative proposals that would impact the American legal system. The committee also has taken an active role in such social issues as Civil Rights protection, law enforcement, and reform of the criminal justice system.

Also, it conducts hearings on judicial and executive nominations, and to consider other pending business in the interest of the committee.

Subcommittees Committee on Judiciary includes several subcommittees: * Administrative Oversight and the Courts * Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights * The Constitution, Civil Rights and Human Rights * Crime and Terrorism * Immigration, Refugees and Border Security * Privacy, Technology and the Law 198

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Committee, the Judiciary. "Committee History." Senate Judiciary Committee. http://www.judiciary.senate.gov/about/history/index.cfm (accessed February 22, 2013)."Membership on the Senate Judiciary Committee." Membership on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Web. 03 Nov. 2012. .

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Chairmanship: 

The Chairman:

Sen. Patrick Leahy (Democrat- Vermont)



The Ranking Member:

Sen. Chuck Grassley (Republican-Iowa)

Committee on judiciary “You are searching for the magic key that will unlock the door to the source of power; and yet you have the key in your own hands, and you may use it the moment you learn to control your thoughts.” Napoleon Hill-American author and politician” If you are able to think using the right motivations and background and if you are able to express your mind proficiently then what could possibly stop you from leading your nation into a brighter future? That’s what the committee on judiciary is all about in short. It’s about motivating young minds to think and to widen their gaze by understanding the different points of views in tolerant yet critical way. We do all that through discussing important or even sometimes sensitive issues.

Freedom of speech is a constitutional right provided to the citizens all over the world but what if it has some certain limits? How can you then define it as “freedom” with your “cuffing”

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limits? The Whole world is now going through an overwhelming test and with extremely critical decisions, so why donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t we share them with our youth?

Darwinâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Theory of evolution saw the light in 1859, since then the debates have been going non-stop about whether to teach evolution as a science in classes or not, but recently the tables turned and now people are demanding that creationism should be taught as a science alongside the theory of evolution. The committee demonstrates the definitions of both theories and the stances of both sides neutrally in order for our youth to better understand one of the most influential and critical issues that arises now in the United States and whether the U.S. is truly embracing its freedom of speech for its teachers and students?

Are you more loyal to the country that you are born in or to the country of your ancestors that you have never seen or set foot on? In the topic on birthright citizenship the committee offers full understanding of the concept of citizenship and its history leaving the choice to the young minds to decide from their own perspective on the right of citizenship.

Is finding a cure for Alzheimer worth killing hundreds of embryos? Should we consider this as an equation that must be solved to get the final result no matter what the losses are? Should we treat innocent embryos as a mere numbers?

Stem cells research is a very confusing topic for millions of people around the globe as they lack the full awareness and understanding of stem cell research and its process. The committee hopes to shed some light on such complexities.

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Topics' Outline: First Topic: Teaching creationism VS evolution  

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………….………..127 What is Creationism……………………………………………………………………..………..127 o o

Religious views on creationism Types of creationism

 The Theory of Evolution……………………………………………………………………………130 o o

Premise Natural selection

 Definition of Intelligent Design………………………………………………………………….131  Teaching Evolution v. Creation: The Debate……………………………………………..132 o o o o o

o

The case of Freedom of Speech Edwards v. Aguillard Challenges facing the teaching of Evolution Criticism on the theory of Evolution The right to teach the criticism of the theory of Evolution Can religion and evolution coexist?

 Intelligent design: The Debate………………………………………………………………..…138 o



Is intelligent design science

Statistics and Polls………………………………………………………………………..………..140 o o

What do teachers stand up for : evolution or creation States regulation on the teaching of Evolution

 Where are we now?......................................................................................142

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Second Topic: Citizenship by birth

 

Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………143 Definition of Citizenship…………………………………………………………………….……143 o o



The History of Citizenship by Birth in the US……………………………………….….145 o o o o



The English Common Law The case of Dred Scot v. Sandford The civil rights act The 14th amendment

Illegal Immigration and Birth-right Citizenship…………………………………..……148 o o o



Citizenship as a concept How can one become a US citizen?

Anchor Babies The humanitarian aspect The debate around the 14th amendment

Non-Permanent residents………………………………………………………………………154 o o

Birth Tourism A Question of alliance and loyalty

 A lesson to learn in other countries…………………………………………………………..157  What now for the US?...................................................................................158

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Third Topic: Stem Cell Research

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Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………159 Definition of Stem Cells………………………………………………………………………….159 o



Types of Stem Cells

Embryonic Stem Cells Research Controversy………………………………….………162 o o

When does life begin?

What type of embryos issued

 Legal status on Embryonic Stem Cell Research……………………………………..…..165 o o o



The Dicky Wicker amendment The Bush era The Obama era

Cloning……………………………………………………………………………………………………167 o o o o o

Definition of cloning Types of cloning Relationship between Cloning and Stem Cell Research Medical and Ethical debate around the Therapeutic Cloning Legal Status of Cloning in the US



Other Countries laws on Stem Cells and Cloning……………………………….……170



Are There Other Solutions to the Controversy of Embryonic Stem Cells and Cloning?......................................................................................................172



Chimeras…………………………………………………………………………………………..……173 o o o o



Definition of chimeras Kinds of Chimeras Chimera Debate Legal Status of Chimeras

Stem Cells research: what now?................................................................179 126

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Teaching Creationism v. Evolution

Introduction The terms creationism and creationist have become particularly associated with beliefs conflicting with the theory of evolution by natural selection. This conflict is most prevalent in the United States, where there has been sustained creation-evolution controversy in the public arena. Over the years new terms have entered the debate such as Intelligent Design adding more complexity to an already complicated debate.

What is Creationism?

Creationism is the religious doctrine, opposed to naturalistic evolution, that life on this planet was created by a special, unique act of God. Creationism covers a spectrum of beliefs, which have been categorized into the broad types that will be referred to later in this text. But regardless of their views, all creationists share four traits. First, they devoutly believe in God. Second, they assert that God miraculously intervened in the development of life, either creating every species from scratch or intruding from time to time in an otherwise Darwinian process.

Third, they agree that one of these interventions was the creation of humans, who could not have evolved from apelike ancestors. Fourth, they all adhere to a particular argument called â&#x20AC;&#x153;irreducible complexity.â&#x20AC;? This is the idea that some species, or some features of some species, are too complex to have evolved in a Darwinian manner, and must therefore have been designed by God.

Religious views on Creationism Islam Islamic views on evolution are diverse, ranging from theistic evolution to creationism. Muslims believe in a God as the Creator, as explained in the Qur'an. Throughout history some Muslim 127

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thinkers have proposed and accepted elements of the theory of evolution, while believing in the supremacy of God in the process. 199 In modern times, some Muslims have rejected evolution, and teaching it is banned in some countries. The main schism between Islam and evolution is in the Adamic descent of human beings, a concept which modern biological anthropology rejects as mythology, supported by fossil evidence. Muslims believe that man was created from an origin of his own species; it is not correct that he evolved from a species of monkeys or apes. 200 Christianity As of 2006, most Christians around the world accepted evolution as the most likely explanation for the origins of species, and did not take a literal view of the Genesis creation narrative. The United States is an exception where belief in religious fundamentalism is much more likely to affect attitudes towards evolution than it is for believers elsewhere. Political partisanship affecting religious belief may be a factor because whilst political partisanship in the U.S. is highly correlated with fundamentalist thinking. Most contemporary Christian leaders and scholars from mainstream churches, consider that there is no conflict between the spiritual meaning of creation and the science of evolution. 201 In the United States, most Christian denominations believe in the literal truth of the bible.

Evangelical Christians have continued to believe in a literal Genesis (the first book of the Hebrew bible and the one dealing with the story of creation). Members of Protestant (70%), Mormon (76%) and Jehovah's Witnesses (90%) denominations are the most likely to reject the evolutionary interpretation of the origins of life. The historic Christian literal interpretation of creation requires the harmonization of the two creation stories, Genesis 1:1-2:3 and Genesis 2:4-25, for there to be a consistent interpretation. 202 The beliefs of creationists from the same faith could vary depending on how literal they interpret the bible, and thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s why there are several types of creationism.

199

hameed, salaman "Bracing for Islamic Creationism" Bracing for Islamic Creationism. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/322/5908/1637 (accessed February 22, 2013).

200

El-Najjar, Hassan Ali. "Creation and Evolution in the Holy Qur'an By Hassan El-Najjar ." Al-Jazeerah: Cross-Cultural Understanding. http://www.aljazeerah.info/Islamic%20Editorials/2007/October/Creation%20and%20Evolution%20in%20the%20Holy%20Qur'a n%20By%20Hassan%20El-Najjar.htm (accessed February 22, 2013).

201

"Religion." religion. old.richarddawkins.net/articles/706 http://ncse.com/media/voices/religion (accessed October 10, 2012).

202

"Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / U.S. Religious Landscape Survey." religions pewforum. /pdf/report2religiouslandscape-study-chapter-2.pdf (accessed October 21, 2012).

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Types of creationism in Christianity 

Flat Earth creationism - God created the world with a flat surface 6,000 years ago. All that modern science says about shape, size, and age of the Earth is wrong, and evolution does not occur. Very few people today maintain such a belief.



Modern geo-centrism - God recently created a spherical world, and placed it in the center of the universe. The Sun, planets and everything else in the universe revolve around it. All scientific claims about the age of the Earth are lies; evolution does not occur. Very few people today maintain such a belief.



Young-Earth Creationism – It is belief that God created the Earth a few thousand years ago (scientists believe the earth to be 4.5 billion year old), literally as described in Creation according to Genesis. Because Young Earth creationists believe in the literal truth of the description in Genesis of divine creation of every "kind" of plant and creature during a week about 6,000 years ago, they dispute parts of evolution, specifically Universal Common Ancestry, which describes all species developing from a common ancestor without a need for divine intervention over a much longer time. And it is the belief held by roughly 40% of all Americans.



Old-Earth Creationism – They maintain that God created the physical universe, but that the creation event of Genesis is not to be taken strictly and literally. This group believes that the Universe and the Earth are as described by astronomers and geologists, but that details of the evolutionary theory are questionable. 203



Evolutionary creationism/Theistic evolutionism - the general belief that some or all classical religious teachings about God and creation are compatible with some or all of the scientific theory of evolution, It views evolution as a tool used by God, although most adherents deny that Genesis was meant to be interpreted as history at all. It can still be described as "creationism" in holding that divine intervention brought about the origin of life or that divine Laws govern formation of species, but in the creationevolution controversy its proponents generally take the "evolutionist" side while disputing that some scientists' methodological assumption of materialism can be taken as ontological (the branch of metaphysics dealing with the nature of being) as well.

Many creationists would deny that this is creationism at all, and should rather be called "theistic evolution", just as many scientists allow voice to their spiritual side. In particular, this view rejects the doctrine of special creation. 204

203

Isaak, Mark. "What is Creationism?." TalkOrigins Archive: Exploring the Creation/Evolution Controversy. http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/wic.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

204

"BBC - Religions - Christianity: Creationism and intelligent design." BBC - Homepage. http://www.bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/christianity/beliefs/creationism_1.shtml (accessed February 22, 2013).

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Theory of Evolution The theory of evolution is a naturalistic theory of the history of life on earth. MerriamWebster's dictionary gives the following definition of evolution: "a theory that the various types of animals and plants have their origin in other pre-existing types and that the distinguishable differences are due to modifications in successive generations..."

The theory of evolution states that the process of mutation is the only known source of the new materials of genetic variability, and hence of evolution. 205

Darwin's Theory of Evolution - The Premise Darwin's Theory of Evolution is the widely held notion that all life is related and has descended from a common ancestor: the birds and the bananas, the fishes and the flowers -- all related.

Darwin's general theory presumes the development of life from non-life and stresses a purely naturalistic (undirected) "descent with modification". That is, complex creatures evolve from more simplistic ancestors naturally over time. In a nutshell, as random genetic mutations occur within an organism's genetic code, the beneficial mutations are preserved because they aid survival -- a process known as "natural selection". These beneficial mutations are passed on to the next generation. Over time, beneficial mutations accumulate and the result is an entirely different organism (not just a variation of the original, but an entirely different creature).

Theory of Darwin's Evolution - Natural Selection While Darwin's Theory of Evolution is considered a relatively young archetype, the evolutionary worldview itself is as old as antiquity. Ancient Greek philosophers such as "Anaximander" postulated the development of life from non-life and the evolutionary descent of man from animal. Charles Darwin simply brought something new to the old philosophy -- a plausible mechanism called "natural selection." Natural selection acts to preserve and accumulate minor advantageous genetic mutations. Suppose a member of a species developed a functional advantage (it grew wings and learned to fly). Its offspring would inherit that advantage and pass it on to their offspring. The inferior (disadvantaged) members of the same species would gradually die out, leaving only the superior (advantaged) members of the species. Natural selection is the preservation of a functional advantage that enables a species to compete better in the wild. Natural selection is the naturalistic equivalent to domestic breeding. Over the centuries, human breeders have produced dramatic changes in domestic animal populations by

205

Achievements, the king of Sweden for his scientific, and noted that "there has never been a theory of evolution".. "Evolution - ConservapeSdia." Main Page - Conservapedia. http://www.conservapedia.com/Evolution (accessed February 22, 2013).

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selecting individuals to breed. Breeders eliminate undesirable traits gradually over time.

Similarly, natural selection eliminates inferior species gradually over time. 206

Intelligent Design The theory of Intelligent Design (ID) holds that certain features of the universe and of living things are best explained by an intelligent cause, not an undirected process such as [Darwinian] natural selection.

The Intelligent Design Theory says that intelligent causes are necessary to explain the complex information rich structure of biology. These causes are empirically detectable. ID purports that design can be detected without any understanding of who the designer is or why the agent acted, or even how the phenomenon in question was actually produced. Certain biological features defy the Darwinian random selection explanation because they appear to have been designed. There are three primary arguments in the intelligent design theory.

1- Irreducible complexity asserts that if a system cannot be reduced to fewer components and retains functionality, then it could not have evolved by the gradual assemblage of components over successive generations. Intelligent design theorists argue that while some systems and organs can be explained by evolution, those that are irreducibly complex cannot, but instead an intelligent designer must be responsible. 207 2- Specified complexity claims that when something exhibits to be both complex and specified, one can infer that it was produced by an intelligent cause (i.e., that it was designed), rather than being the result of natural processes. "A single letter of the alphabet is specified without being complex. A long sentence of random letters is complex without being specified. A Shakespearean sonnet is both complex and specified." 208 Details of living things can be similarly characterized, especially the "patterns" of molecular sequences in functional biological molecules such as DNA. 3- Anthropic Principle is the claim that the Universe was prepared from the first moment of existence to the emergence of life as a whole and especially of human life. It originated from observations that the earth uniquely and perfectly meets the requirements for life, and more 206

Darwin, Charles. On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection: Or, The Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life. New York: Heritage, 1963. Print.

207

position, taking this, and intelligent. "Intelligent Design and Irreducible Complexity." Northwest Creation Network. http://nwcreation.net/intelligentdesign.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

208

"William Dembski - CreationWiki, the encyclopedia of creation science." Main Page - CreationWiki, the encyclopedia of creation science. http://creationwiki.org/William_Dembski (accessed February 22, 2013).

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specifically human life. We appear to live in a universe dependent on several independent variables where only a slight change would render it inhospitable for any form of life, so it would be impossible for all the variables to come into being through random events.209 Unlike creationism, ID does not state that God is the intelligent designer. It only says that there is clear evidence in nature of intelligent design. The designer in ID could be God, but it could also be an extra-terrestrial race or some other supernatural force. Also, ID does not draw its arguments directly from the Christian Bible. But while it does acknowledge the possibility of slight evolutionary changes within a species, it does not recognize the possibility of one species is evolving from another or the chance of highly complex biological systems resulting from natural selection.210

Teaching Evolution v. Creation: The Debate There has been a raging debate about the origin of life and how we came to be as humans and this debate moved on to the classrooms and what should we teach our children. Some sects of Christian creationists believe that evolution goes against the literal truth of the holly bible so how could we teach something that goes against the sacred beliefs of the American people's majority?

On the other hand the scientific community sees literal creationism as mere religious dogma that has no scientific grounds or proof and even goes against reason and logic.

The case of freedom of speech: The debate over freedom of speech for teachers has long affected the debate around teaching creationism or evolution and has done so in different ways and forms.

The butler act of 1925 The butler act was passed by the state of Tennessee prohibiting the teaching of the evolution theory in the universities and public schools of Tennessee; any teacher found guilty of breaking this law shall be guilty of misdemeanor. In a result of this act a very famous case occurred, the scopes (monkey) trial.

John Scopes was a teacher who assigned a number of textbooks dealing with the evolution 209

"Anthropic principle - CreationWiki, the encyclopedia of creation science." Main Page - CreationWiki, the encyclopedia of creation science. http://creationwiki.org/Anthropic_principle (accessed February 22, 2013).

210

Layton, Julia. "HowStuffWorks "How Intelligent Design Works"." HowStuffWorks "People". http://people.howstuffworks.com/intelligent-design2.htm (accessed February 22, 2013).

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theory to his class and that was enough reason for him to be prosecuted by the state. The trial itself was more of a public exhibition than an actual trial with thousands of spectators milling around outside the courthouse and live trial updates being broadcast on national radio. The trial was no longer about John Scopes but about the right to teach evolution and the injustice of the butler's act. Although Scopes was found guilty before the case was later thrown out of court on a technicality, the trial did manage to raise public awareness about the evolution theory and the right to teach it. 211 Four decades after the Scopes Trial, the Tennessee General Assembly repealed the Butler Act, allowing teachers to introduce evolution as legitimate science theory.

Time changed. The right to teach evolution has become a long established right for all teachers ever since the case of Epperson v. Arkansas (1968) where the supreme court held that prohibiting teachers from teaching evolution goes against their freedom of speech and the Establishment clause of the first amendment, which states: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof…”.

The prohibition of teaching evolution was seen as illegal because it was based solely on the beliefs of fundamental Christians. The state, using its power to prohibit teachings that are objectionable to a certain sect, is considered an unconstitutional establishment of a certain religion and that goes against the U.S. being a secular state. 212 The debate, however, did not end; it simply evolved. It is now creationists who are fighting for the right to teach creationism science along with evolution. Creationists now say that public schools should allow for the teaching of all salient doctrines and theories. No favor should be given one way or another. Students should be given the freedom of choice to decide what they think is right and what is not. One of the greatest lessons that a school can teach its students is the ability to use their own logic and reasoning to develop an objective opinion of the world around them. By teaching creationism in the classroom, schools are broadening students' knowledge. They also argued that prohibiting teachers from teaching creationism would be against the freedom of speech. This was all put to the test in the case of Edwards v. Aguillard in 1987 211

"What was the Scopes Monkey Trial?." wiseGEEK: clear answers for common questions. http://www.wisegeek.com/whatwas-the-scopes-monkey-trial.htm (accessed February 22, 2013)."Why the Scopes Trial Happened." Honest Abe's NLP Emporium. http://www.bradburyac.mistral.co.uk/tenness4.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

212

"Epperson v. Arkansas | The Oyez Project at IIT Chicago-Kent College of Law." The Oyez Project at IIT Chicago-Kent College of Law | A Multimedia Archive of the Supreme Court of the United States. http://www.oyez.org/cases/1960-1969/1968/1968_7 (accessed February 22, 2013).Between, there is some tension. "Introduction to the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment." UMKC School of Law. http://law2.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/conlaw/estabinto.htm (accessed February 22, 2013).

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Edwards v. Aguillard in 1987 Case back ground: Louisiana's 'Creationism Act' forbade the teaching of the theory of evolution in public elementary and secondary schools unless accompanied by instruction in the theory of creation science.

The Act does not require the teaching of either theory unless the other is taught. It defines the theories as 'the scientific evidences for [creation or evolution] and inferences from those scientific evidences.'

The Supreme Court repealed the act as it is in violation of the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment, because it lacks a clear secular purpose. The Supreme Court saw that the Act impermissibly endorses religion by advancing the religious belief that a supernatural being created humankind. The legislative history demonstrates that the term creation science, as contemplated by the state legislature, embraces this religious teaching. The Act's primary purpose was to change the public school science curriculum to provide persuasive advantage to a particular religious doctrine that rejects the factual basis of evolution in its entirety. Thus, the Act is designed either to promote the theory of creation science that embodies a particular religious tenet or to prohibit the teaching of a scientific theory disfavored by certain religious sects. In either case, the Act violates the First Amendment."

The decision of the Supreme Court clearly view creationism as religious belief only and not as a science of its own as some creationists view it, and thus the question remains can we teach religion in our science class? 213

The challenges that still face the teaching of evolution Although there are not any legislative laws against the teaching of evolution, it could still be deemphasized in schools specially the controversial aspects of it. In a country like America, students are actually lagging behind in their knowledge of the theory of evolution, which is considered probably the most important theory in biology. The reason is simple the majority of public school biology teachers across the country shy away from teaching evolution. Some teachers even advocate creationism, while others are afraid to address the topic in fear of controversy.

213

"Edwards v. Aguillard - ACLU - ProCon.org." ACLU.ProCon.org - Is the ACLU good for America?. http://aclu.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=495 (accessed February 22, 2013).

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This is considered very alarming as it indicates that less than half of American students are proficient in science. One has to ponder about the effect of the creationism v. evolution debate on the quality of science teaching our children receive. 214

Criticism on the Theory of Evolution After all it is just a theory right?

Well evolution is both fact and theory. Biologists consider the existence of biological evolution to be a fact. It can be demonstrated today and the historical evidence for its occurrence in the past is overwhelming. However, biologists readily admit that they are less certain of the exact mechanism of evolution; there are several theories of the mechanism of evolution.

Many theories are works in progress, and evolution is one of them. There are several big questions that the theory of evolution cannot answer right now. This is not unusual. Newtonian physics worked really well for hundreds of years, and it still works well today for many types of problems. However, it does not explain lots of things that were eventually answered by Einstein and his theories of relativity. People create new theories and modify existing ones to explain the unexplained. 215 There are however certain unanswered questions (flaws) in evolution.

Inquiries about the Theory of Evolution

Question 1: How Does Evolution Add Information?

The theory of evolution explains how strands of DNA change. An X-ray, cosmic ray, chemical reaction or similar mechanism can modify a base pair in the DNA strand to create a mutation, and this modification can lead to the creation of a new protein or enzyme.

The theory of evolution further proposes that billions of these mutations created all of the life forms we see today. An initial self-replicating molecule spontaneously formed. It evolved into single-cell organisms. These evolved into multi-cell organisms, which evolved into vertebrates like fish, and so on.

In the process, DNA structures evolved from the asexual single-strand format found in bacteria today into the dual-strand chromosomal format found in all higher life forms. The number of chromosomes also proliferated. For example, fruit flies have five chromosomes, mice have 20, humans have 23 and dogs have 39.

214

Liepmann, Erica. "Evolution Vs. Creationism: Study Reveals Public School Science Lagging." The Huffington Post.

TheHuffingtonPost.com, 31 Jan. 2011. Web. 215

Laurence. "Evolution is a Fact and a Theory." TalkOrigins Archive: Exploring the Creation/Evolution Controversy. http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/evolution-fact.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

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Evolution's mutation mechanism does not explain how growth of a genome is possible. How can point mutations create new chromosomes or lengthen a strand of DNA? It is interesting to note that, in all of the selective breeding in dogs, there has been no change to the basic dog genome. All breeds of dog can still mate with one another. People have not seen any increase in dog's DNA, but have simply selected different genes from the existing dog gene pool to create the different breeds.

Question 2: How Can Evolution Be So Quick?

The point is that evolution in general is an extremely slow process; when two mice breed, the offspring is a mouse. When that offspring breeds, its offspring is a mouse. When that offspring breeds... And the process continues.

Mutations do not change this fact in any significant way over the short haul. The fact that it takes evolution 100,000 or 10 million years to make relatively minor changes in existing structures shows just how slow evolution really is. The creation of a new species is time consuming. And as it stands now, there was simply not enough time for all this change and variation that we see now.

Question 3: Where Did the First Living Cell Come From?

In order for the principles of mutation and natural selection in the theory of evolution to work, there have to be living things for them to work on. Life must exist before it can start diversifying. Life had to come from somewhere, and the theory of evolution proposes that it arose spontaneously out of the inert chemicals of planet Earth perhaps 4 billion years ago. The thing is life is extremely complex and we do not know how it could simply stem spontaneously out of nothing. 216

The right to teach the criticism of the Theory of Evolution It is been propagated by many that allowing the criticism of the Theory of Evolution to be discussed in classrooms would benefit the students. It would enable their critical and understanding abilities while giving them a better chance to express themselves.

Scientists and civil libertarians however say itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a mere doorway to preach creationists ideas. It will open the decades-old controversy over teaching creationism to the state's schoolchildren.

Also stating that this will only be way for teachers to interject their religious viewpoints if they contradict evolution, and that criticizing evolution should only be done within the scientific community as children are not adept to do so and they will only be influenced by their teacher's

216

"HowStuffWorks." How evolution works. science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/life/evolution/evolution.htm (accessed November 4, 2012).

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opinion.217 Nearly 90 years after the famous Scopes monkey trial, Tennessee has once again become a battleground over teaching evolution and other science topics in the classroom. The state legislature passed a bill that would require public schools to allow teachers to challenge accepted theories on evolution and climate change and discuss their strength and weaknesses.

The bill prohibits teachers from commenting on their own religious beliefs. 218

Can religion and evolution coexist?

It is a very controversial topic with a lot of points of view varying on it. A growing number of people believe that one can accept evolution as scientific fact and still believe in a creator (God), because science and faith are different and distinct aspects of life. Some even think that if we donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t take the bible or other holly books so literally there would be no contradiction between them both that they would actually be the same thing; it's just that creation was written in a time when people didn't have the ability to understand something like evolution and how long it took to reach the stage we are now. God created the world in 6 days and rested on the 7th, but how long is one of God's days compared to ours. One of God's days could be a million years or more to us. As for the parts of the Old Testament, it speaks of what God has said or done: such as Genesis had to be bestowed on the authors of the Torah (the original Hebrew text in which the Old Testament was pulled from) from a higher power, because they had no way of knowing. If it said God created the world, and then all the animals in it, as well as, humans by starting with single celled organisms and making us evolve into marine life, then land-walking mammals would have confused people in those days. Basically we weren't ready for that knowledge. Evolution is just a perfect method to make us earn our existence in this physical world God has made for us. 219 Further proof on that point is that in 1996, Pope John Paul II confirms a previous papal encyclical, Humani generis (1955), stating that the theory of evolution can be compatible with

217

"Debate Over How to Teach Evolution and Climate Change | The Diane Rehm Show from WAMU and NPR." The Diane Rehm Show from WAMU and NPR. http://thedianerehmshow.org/shows/2012-04-09/debate-over-how-teach-evolution-and-climatechange?p (accessed February 22, 2013).

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"Tennessee Bill Would Allow Creationism in the Classroom - Washington Whispers (usnews.com)." US News & World Report | News & Rankings | Best Colleges, Best Hospitals, and more. http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washingtonwhispers/2012/04/11/tennessee-bill-would-allow-creationism-in-the-classroom (accessed February 22, 2013).

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"Can Evolution and Creation Coexist?." WikiAnswers. wiki.answers.com/Q/Can_evolution_and_creation_coexist (accessed November 4, 2012).

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Roman Catholic doctrine, as evolution accounts for physical changes but does not account for the presence of an immortal soul in each human being. 220

Intelligent Design: The Debate Intelligent Design is thought by many to be a valid scientific alternative to the Darwinist theory of evolution. It does not contradict the religious beliefs of the majority of Americans. Its advocates claim that the theory of intelligent design does not stem from a religious belief and is in fact a scientific theory and therefore if taught in schools, it would not be in breach of the establishment clause.

On the other hand many scientists and evolutionists believe Intelligent Design to be a mere disguise for religious beliefs and does not qualify as science.

Is Intelligent Design a scientific theory or not?

Intelligent Designâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s advocates argue that it is a science because it follows the scientific method of 4 steps involving: observation, hypothesis, experimentation and conclusion. For example: ID begins with the observation that intelligent agents produce complex and specified information (CSI). Design theorists hypothesize that if a natural object was designed, it will contain high levels of CSI. Scientists then perform experimental tests upon natural objects to determine if they contain complex and specified information. One easily testable form of CSI is irreducible complexity, which can be discovered by experimentally reverse-engineering biological structures to see if they require all of their parts to function. When ID researchers find irreducible complexity in biology, they conclude that such structures were designed.

A great portion of the scientific community argue that it is not a science because the intelligent agent, which the intelligent designâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s advocates base their theory on, cannot be tested or falsified because it is a supernatural being. They offer no testable mechanism for their theory as well, unlike evolutionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s scientists who offer natural selection and genetic mutation which both can be tested. Most of their evidence relies on discrediting evolution without offering a testable credible alternative. It is also worth noting that the majority of the scientific community does not regard ID as credible scientific theory, and that ID proponents have rarely published on ID in established scientific journals.221

220

"Introduction." TSLA: Exhibits: The Scopes Trial in Dayton." The Scopes Trial in Dayton. www.tennessee.gov/tsla/exhibits/scopes/index.htm (accessed November 4, 2012).

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"Intelligent Design." Explaining the Science of Intelligent Design. http://www.intelligentdesign.org/whatisid.php (accessed February 22, 2013).

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Cases of note on the matter In Pennsylvania, a federal court judge ruled that the teaching of ID would violate the constitutional separation between state and religion.

"We have concluded that it is not [science], and moreover that ID cannot uncouple itself from its creationist, and thus religious, antecedents," Judge Jones writes in his 139-page opinion posted on the court's Web site. He also adds "To be sure, Darwin's theory of evolution is imperfect. However, the fact that a scientific theory cannot yet render an explanation on every point should not be used as a pretext to thrust an un-testable alternative hypothesis grounded in religion into the science classroom or to misrepresent well-established scientific propositions," His decision would block the school district's plan "requiring teachers to denigrate or disparage the scientific theory of Evolution and from requiring teachers to refer to a religious, alternative theory known as ID." His decision applies only to the Pennsylvania school district. 222

" Layton, Julia. "HowStuffWorks "How Intelligent Design Works"." HowStuffWorks "People". http://people.howstuffworks.com/intelligent-design.htm (accessed February 22, 2013).

"Should Intelligent Design be taught as science in public schools? - ACLU - ProCon.org." ACLU.ProCon.org - Is the ACLU good for America?. http://aclu.procon.org/view.answers.php?questionID=000696 (accessed February 22, 2013).

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"Judge rules against â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;intelligent designâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; - Technology & science - Science | NBC News." Breaking News & Top Stories - World News, US & Local | NBC News. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10545387/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/judge-rulesagainst-intelligent-design/#.UJWgFm_A_85 (accessed February 22, 2013).

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Statistics and polls After investigating the whole debate concerning the "evolution vs. creation" teaching at the US schools what do the Americans really believe, what do they think of both theories?

In a poll conducted by Gallup center in 2012, they found that 46% of the Americans hold Creationist View of Human Origins.

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Also when people were asked in 2005 about their willingness to be taught evolution, creation or both, Gallup found:

224

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Newport, Frank. " In U.S., 46% Hold Creationist View of Human Origins." Gallup.Com - Daily News, Polls, Public Opinion on Politics, Economy, Wellbeing, and World. http://www.gallup.com/poll/155003/Hold-Creationist-View-Human-Origins.aspx (accessed February 22, 2013).

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What do teachers stand up for: evolution or creation?

- In a study conducted by researchers in university of Pennsylvania they found that as they examined data from the National Survey of High School Biology Teachers, (a representative sample of 926 public high school biology instructors) only about 28 % of those teachers consistently implement National Research Council recommendations, calling for introduction of evidence that evolution occurred, and craft lesson plans with evolution as a unifying theme linking disparate topics in biology. 225 -In contrast, 13% of biology teachers "explicitly advocate creationism or intelligent design by spending at least one hour of class time presenting it in a positive light." Many of these teachers typically rejected the possibility that scientific methods can shed light on the origin of the species, and considered both evolution and creationism as belief systems that cannot be fully proven or discredited.

- The researchers called the remaining teachers the "cautious 60 percent", who are neither strong advocates for evolutionary biology nor explicit endorsers of non-scientific alternatives.

And it seems that those teachers understandably wanted to avoid controversy.226

Some state status regarding teaching of evolution What is actually being taught at the American public schools?

1-Arkansas: After a long battle with the American Civil Liberties Union, the School Board in Beebe, Ark., voted in July 2005 to remove stickers placed in high school textbooks that question the theory of evolution. The sticker says that evolution alone is "not adequate to explain the origins of life." School officials had been awaiting an appeals court decision on a similar case in Georgia before taking action, but reportedly were concerned about lengthy and costly litigation.

2- Wisconsin: In October 2004, the Grantsburg, Wis., school board added language to its science standards that called for the teaching of "various theories/models of origins." State law mandates the teaching of evolution, but local school districts can create their own curricular standards

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Carlson, Darren K., and Government. " Americans Weigh In on Evolution vs. Creationism in Schools." Gallup.Com - Daily News, Polls, Public Opinion on Politics, Economy, Wellbeing, and World. http://www.gallup.com/poll/16462/Americans-WeighEvolution-vs-Creationism-Schools.aspx (accessed February 22, 2013).

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"High school biology teachers reluctant to endorse evolution in class | Penn State University." News | Penn State University. http://live.psu.edu/story/51023 (accessed February 22, 2013).

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Welsh, Jennifer. "13 Percent of Biology Teachers Back Creationism." Msnbc.com. Msnbc Digital Network, 28 Jan. 2011. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. and_science-science/>.

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3- Michigan: In October 2006, the Michigan Board of Education voted unanimously to pass new state science standards that ensure the teaching of evolution but not the teaching of intelligent design or creation science. Language that some educators had argued cast doubt on the theory of evolution was removed from the final version of the guidelines. The new standards r equire public school students to be able to "explain how a new species or variety originates through the evolutionary process of natural selection" and "how the fossil record, comparative anatomy, and other evidence supports the theory of evolution."

4- Kentucky: According to a 1976 law that was revised in 1990, public schools in Kentucky are allowed to teach creationism in addition to evolution. The law states that any teacher who wishes to may teach "the theory of creation as presented in the Bible."

5-Florida: The Florida Senate voted 21-17 in 2008 following a strong majority vote in the Florida Senate Judiciary Committee, to submit the "Evolution Academic Freedom Act" for vote in the House. This bill gives freedom to teachers and students in Florida schools to share views in the classroom that challenge some or all parts of Darwinâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s theory of evolution. 227

Where are we now?

The debate about teaching Creationism or Evolution is evolving as we do, for it reflects how we view ourselves and what we believe to be sacred. The Theory of evolution is one of the most fundamental theories in science and no one can now deny the right to teach it however; it faces many challenges of being marginalized even today.

Yet creationists claim that their doctrine is the one being wrong done, and that creationism has a place in the classrooms along with the Theory of Evolution.

They demand that teachers have the right to express what they believe in as part of their academic freedom of speech, but does teaching creationism break the separation of church and state? Where does ID stand in all of this, is it an alternate scientific theory or is it just creationism in a new disguise? Should the Theory of Evolution be introduced to students as the only method we know of how we came to be as we are now? Or should the criticism of the theory be allowed and alternative theories explored?

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"Teaching Evolution: A State-by-State Debate : NPR." NPR : National Public Radio : News & Analysis, World, US, Music & Arts : NPR. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4630737 (accessed February 22, 2013).

"Pew Forum: State Laws and Regulations on Teaching Evolution in Public Schools." Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. http://www.pewforum.org/Science-and-Bioethics/Fighting-Over-Darwin-State-by-State.aspx (accessed February 22, 2013).

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Citizenship by Birth Introduction Citizenship by birth is one of the greatest issues that haunt the US nowadays. As the number of illegal immigrants who give birth in the US increases and the number of ethnicities rises, the question of identity appears on surface as one of the fundamental questions that leads us to the investigation of the citizenship issue which begins with the question: "what does it mean to be a citizen?"

Definition of citizenship Sometimes when we come to think about the definition of citizenship we perceive it as a standard, one that is taken for granted because we are not familiar with the other aspects of citizenship. In fact, citizenship has many definitions and theories that are still put on the table for discussion and debate. 228 The simple definition of citizenship is the legal one, which says: citizenship is the relationship between an individual and a state in which the individual owes allegiance and loyalty to the state and in turn is entitled to its protection. In general, full political rights, including the right to vote and to hold public office, are predicated on citizenship. Citizenship entails obligations, usually including allegiance, payment of taxes, and military service. 229

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"Ancient Civilizations : Political Organization : The Concept of Citizenship." ThinkQuest. Oracle Foundation, n.d. Web. 31 Oct. 2012. .

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"Citizenship - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary." Dictionary and Thesaurus - MerriamWebster Online. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/citizenship (accessed February 22, 2013).

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Citizenship as a concept The concept of citizenship is composed of three main elements or dimensions: 1- Citizenship as a legal status: the citizen is the legal person free to act according to the law and having the right to claim the law's protection. It need not mean that the citizen takes part in the law's formulation, nor does it require that rights be uniform between citizens.

2- The political dimension: it considers citizens specifically as political agents, actively participating in a society's political institutions.

3- The social identity dimension: it refers to citizenship as membership in a political community that furnishes a distinct source of identity.

The identity dimension is the most complicated and the least straightforward one. It is sometimes called the â&#x20AC;&#x153;psychologicalâ&#x20AC;? dimension of citizenship. That's why social psychologists like Henri Tajfel investigated the issue and came up with the definition of social identity which says: "social identity is that part of an individual's self-concept which derives from his knowledge of his membership in a social group (or groups) together with the value and emotional significance attached to that membership." The problem with the identity issue is that it is sometimes seen as a result of identification with members of society for example having the same history, religion, culture, ancestors...etc.

Thus any of those who are not of the same ethnic group might have problems of identity or seen as having problems with identity leaving us in front of a crucial question: Are those who were born in the US but of completely different ethnic group or cultural background like the Hispanics really belong to the US? Do they fit the definition of identity and citizenship?

How to become a US citizen?

There are various ways in the US by which you can acquire US citizenship: 1- Jus soli or right of birthplace: Any child born in the U.S. automatically acquires U.S. Citizenship, even if the childâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s mother was in the U.S. illegally. This provision does not apply to a child whose parent was a foreign diplomat at the time of birth.

2- Jus sanguinis or right of blood: Even though a child is born outside the U.S., the child automatically acquires U.S. Citizenship if at least one parent was a U.S. citizen at the time of the

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child's birth. 230 3- Naturalization: Process of granting nationality or citizenship to an alien. It may be granted after voluntary application or through legislation, marriage to a citizen, or parental action.

Involuntary naturalization occurs when one's home territory is annexed by a foreign state.

Qualifications for naturalization may include a minimum residency period, a minimum age (should be at least 18 years old), law-abiding character, good health, self-sufficiency and satisfactory knowledge of the new country.

A person who has been naturalized gains the same rights and privileges of citizenship as natural born American citizens except for the fact that naturalized citizens do not qualify for the Office of the President of the United States. 231

The History of Citizenship by Birth in the US The English Common Law: The United States of America’s law on citizenship was originally derived from the English common law, and up until now it still follows its basic principles.

The traditional English common law followed the doctrine of “jus-soli” or in other words the right of land. This means that any people born within the dominion of the country and with allegiance to the English sovereign are citizens of the English sovereign regardless of their parents’ nationality.

Of course there were certain exceptions to this rule, like the persons born to diplomats as in this case they’re citizens of the sovereign whom their parents represent abroad. Also people born to citizens of a hostile occupying force are subjects of the invading sovereign.

There still was a big confusion about the true meaning of “the right of land” as the constitution wasn’t clear enough. Native Americans also were not considered U.S. citizens because they were members of dependent sovereign Indian nations.

As, in the 1884 decision Elk v. Wilkins, the Supreme Court held that Native Americans were not U.S. citizens under the terms of the Citizenship Clause. Later immigration statutes enacted in 1924, 1940, and 1952 granted U.S. citizenship to all Native Americans. Additionally, African Americans were not considered as citizens even if they were born in the United States even if 230

Watkins, Rachel. "Theories of Citizenship | eHow.com." eHow | How to Videos, Articles & More - Discover the expert in you. | eHow.com. http://www.ehow.com/info_8087929_theories-citizenship.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

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Sanchez, Margarita, and Olivier Klein. "SOCIAL IDENTITY AND CITIZENSHIP: INTRODUCTION." CITIZENSHIP. www.ulb.ac.be/psycho/psysoc/psybelg/introcitiz.pdf (accessed October 31, 2012)."Ways of Getting Citizenship | uscitizenship."

INS | US Citizenship and Immigration Services Online. http://www.uscitizenship.info/articles/ways-of-gettingcitizenship/index.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

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they were free and that was of course one of the reasons for the civil war. 232 This brings us to the infamous case of Scot VS Sandford.

Case of Dred Scott v. Sandford (1857): Circumstances of the Case: Dred Scott was a Missouri slave, sold to an Army surgeon John Emerson in Saint Louis around 1833. Scott was taken to Illinois, a Free State, and on to the free Wisconsin Territory before returning to Missouri. When Emerson died in 1843, Scott sued Emerson's widow for his freedom in the Missouri Supreme Court, claiming that his residence in the “free soil” of Illinois made him a free man. After defeat in State courts, Scott brought suit in a local federal court. Eleven years after Scott's initial suit, the case came before the U.S. Supreme Court.

Constitutional Issues: Did a slave become free upon entering a Free State? Could a slave—or a black person—actually be entitled to sue in federal courts? Was the transportation of slaves subject to federal regulation? Could the Federal Government deny a citizen the right to property (interstate transportation of slaves/property) without due process of law? Could an item of property (a slave) be taken from the owner without just compensation?

Arguments For Dred Scott: When a person enters a Free State or territory, the free status overrides the previous condition of servitude. Since slavery was forbidden in the Free States and territories by federal and State laws, Dred Scott became free when he entered Illinois and Wisconsin.

For Sandford: To deprive a person of his property (in this case, Dred Scott) without due process or just compensation violated the 5th Amendment, which states that “No person shall be… deprived of life, liberty or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.” Dred Scott was still a slave (property) and cannot be taken away by a State or federal law from his rightful owner.

The decision was in favor of the slave owner but what was truly important in the decision where two things: First, chief justice Taney opinion was that, African Americans, be they slave or free, were not citizens. As a slave, moreover, Scott was property and had no right to bring suit in federal courts. Second, the decision stated Congress could not extend to any territorial governments powers that it did not possess (in this case, the power to limit slavery).

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Lee, Margaret M. "Birthright Citizenship Under the 14 Th Amendment of Persons Born in the United States to Alien Parents.." Citizenship. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33079.pdf (accessed August 12, 2012).

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The ruling in this case is perceived to unsettle the delicate balance between the North and the South and is considered as one the reasons for the American civil war.233

The Civil Rights Act Of 1866 After the civil war ended in 1865 and slavery was abolished by the 13th amendment "Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.", the Civil Rights Act (1866) was passed by Congress on 9th April 1866 over the veto of President Andrew Johnson. The act declared that all persons born in the United States were now citizens, without regard to race, color, or previous condition. As citizens they could make and enforce contracts, sue and be sued, give evidence in court, and inherit, purchase, lease, sell, hold, and convey real and personal property. The civil rights act overturned the infamous decision of Dred Scott v. Sandford (1857) denying people of color the citizenship. 234

The 14th Amendment Later in 1868, the 14th amendment was written to ensure the civil rights act would remain valid. The 14th amendment stated, "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.”

The 14th amendment gave every person regardless of his parent's nationality or ethnicity or religion born in the US the right to be a US citizen. The question that’s posed now: should citizenship by birth really be for every one or should it be restricted? 235

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mid-1850s, the, and sectional conflict over the extension of. "Dred Scott v. Sandford (1857)." Infoplease: Encyclopedia, Almanac, Atlas, Biographies, Dictionary, Thesaurus. Free online reference, research & homework help. — Infoplease.com. http://www.infoplease.com/us/supreme-court/cases/ar09.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

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"1866 Civil Rights Act." Spartacus Educational. http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/USAcivil1866.htm (accessed February 22, 2013).

"13th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution: Primary Documents of American History (Virtual Programs & Services, Library of Congress)." Library of Congress Home. http://www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/ourdocs/13thamendment.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

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"14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution: Primary Documents of American History (Virtual Programs & Services, Library of Congress)." Library of Congress Home. http://www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/ourdocs/14thamendment.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

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Illegal Immigrants and Birth-right Citizenship An illegal immigrant is a person who has entered the country without official authorization.

Federal immigration law provides means by which certain aliens can become naturalized citizens with full rights of citizenship. Immigration law determines who may enter, how long they may stay and when they must leave.

"In October 2008, the illegal immigrant population stood at 11.9 million according to the Pew Hispanic Center." Illegal immigrants collectively represent a group that is a significant menace to the public. 80% have committed serious crimes in addition to immigration violations, and 40% have violent crime histories not to mention the economic strain illegal immigrants put on the country. (Center for immigration Studies) 236 Curb or increase?

Those who want to eliminate birthright citizenship for illegal immigrants argue that it has acted as a perverse incentive for immigrants to seek illegal entry to the United States. It permits illegal immigrants to think that they can find a route to permanent residence and security in the United States by giving birth to children on American soil. Their children, who become American citizens upon birth, the argument goes, will "anchor" the illegal parents to America, thus rewarding behavior that ought to be punished. The state of Arizona is at the forefront of this campaign against birthright citizenship, as it is for other aspects of the campaign against illegal immigrants. In the short term, anti-illegal immigrant forces in the state hope to trigger a legal challenge to a nineteenth-century Supreme Court ruling that declared that a child born to non-citizens on American soil is in fact an American citizen. In the long term these forces hope to stimulate a national campaign to amend the Fourteenth Amendment. 237 About 4 million children under the age of 18 as of 2009 have illegal immigrants as parents but were born in the United States; another 1.1 million children are illegal immigrants themselves.

Changing automatic birthright citizenship would help stem the tide of illegal immigration by reducing the incentives for such migrants to come to the USA to have children. 238 On the other hand limiting citizenship would likely do little to deter illegal immigration, say immigrant advocates, because they come to the United States for jobs, not to have babies.

236

"Putting Americans Back to Work?." Numbersusa. https://www.numbersusa.com/content/files/pdf/Putting%20Americans%20Back%20to%20Work(2).pdf (accessed October 13, 2012).

237

"Center for the History of the New America - Conference on Birthright Citizenship." Center for the History of the New America. http://newamerica.umd.edu/conferences/march2012.php (accessed February 22, 2013).

238

J.D, Linda R.Monk. "CITIZENSHIP AND THE CONSTITUTION." Constitutioncenter. constitutioncenter.org/media/files/Monograph_BirthRights.pdf (accessed October 18, 2012).

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Birthright-citizenship bills are mainly intended to increase fear among illegal immigrants in hopes of driving them away. Limiting birthright citizenship actually would increase the number of illegal immigrants.

Jon Feere, the legal policy analyst at the Center for Immigration Studies, that favors stricter controls on immigration, said 300,000 to 400,000 children are born each year to the millions of illegal immigrants already living in the United States. Under the birthright-citizenship proposals, those children would contribute to the nation's undocumented population, he said.

An August study published by the Migration Policy Institute showed that if the 14th Amendment were limited and births to parents were to continue at that pace, the undocumented population in the United States would rise from 11 million today to 16 million by 2050. 239

Anchor Babies Anti-immigrant commentators use the term "anchor babies" to refer to children born in the United States, to undocumented parents. These children, like all people born in the United States, are considered natural-born citizens under U.S. law.

Some of these commentators have suggested that large numbers of undocumented women bear these children solely as "anchors" to prevent their own deportation, a claim that appears suspect for two reasons: 1-There is no evidence that undocumented women are actually using this strategy.

2-There is no reason to believe that this strategy would be a reliable way to avoid deportation.

Despite lack of evidence that the "anchor babies" strategy is in widespread use, some conservative legislators have already suggested revising the U.S. Constitution to retroactively revoke the child's citizenship in cases where parents were undocumented at the time of birth.

This would allow the government to legally deport "anchor babies" at any point in their lives, regardless of their own level of knowledge regarding their parents' documentation status.

Because the term "anchor babies" is dehumanizing and has sometimes been used as an ethnic slur, it is often considered offensive in Latino communities. 240 It's important to note that having an "anchor baby" won't do much to help a Mexican mom

239

"Birthright Citizenship Change Would Have Wide Effects." Birthright Citizenship Change Would Have Wide Effects.. www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/03/20/20110320birthright-citizenship-illegal-immigration.html (accessed October 18, 2012).

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Category. "Anchor Babies - Definition of Anchor Babies." Civil Liberties at About.com - Your Guide to Civil Liberties News and Issues. http://civilliberty.about.com/od/immigrantsrights/g/Anchor-Babies-Definition.htm (accessed February 22, 2013).

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become a U.S. citizen. Because citizen children cannot sponsor their parents for citizenship until they turn 21 -- and because if the parents were ever illegal, they would have to return home for 10 years before applying to come in -- having a baby to secure citizenship for its parents is an extremely long-term, and uncertain, process.

However, having a citizen child can produce some short-term benefits. Pregnant women and nursing mothers could be eligible for certain benefits under the Women-Infants-Children (WIC) program, which provides food and nutrition vouchers, and their children could enroll in Medicaid, although the undocumented parents could not. Having a child can also help an undocumented parent qualify for relief from deportation, but only 4,000 unauthorized immigrants can receive such status per year, and the alien has to have been in the U.S. for at least 10 years. 241 The problem is the parents of anchor babies have no way of legally paying taxes, as they themselves are non-residents. Yet they still regularly use all the tax-sponsored services available to Americans. They birth their children in public hospitals, fill schools with non-English speakers, and crowd prisons with drug crime. In just California alone, non-residents, make up nearly 30% of prisons, costing California over a billion dollars annually in incarceration.

Moreover, the violence typically associated with the Mexican drug trade has increasingly spilled across the border, affecting the quality of life across southwestern states. "Anchor babies" provide opportunities for many aliens to plant roots in the United States. Those aliens might not otherwise have done so.

As far as healthcare, because of the great number of children born to illegal aliens each year nationwide, tremendous medical costs are imposed on hospitals. Several hospitals, including ones in Stockton, CA and Dallas, TX, report as many as 70% of their deliveries are to nonresidents. Similarly, since the parents of infant citizens still qualify for welfare in order to protect the child, the Center for Immigration studies estimates nearly $2 billion dollars goes to illegal aliens annually, in the form of food stamps and free lunches.

Over 29% of all education dollars get spent on teaching anchor babies, including over $1 billion dollars teaching English as a second language, according to Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) similarly, several affected states offer Spanish translation services in many public arenas, at an additional cost to the taxpayers. All told, FAIR estimates that as much as $100 billion tax dollars get spent on illegal aliens annually. 242 241

"Fact-checking the Claims about 'anchor Babies' and Whether Illegal Immigrants 'drop and Leave." PolitiFact. www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/aug/06/lindsey-graham/illegal-immigrants-anchor-babies-birthright/ (accessed October 18, 2012).

242 Risley, Michealene Cristini. "Are 'Anchor Babies' Sinking the American Economy?." The Huffington . www.huffingtonpost.com/michealene-cristini-risley/ (accessed October 18, 2012).

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Humanitarian aspect Some civil-rights advocates are concerned that ending birthright citizenship would create a twotiered class system in the United States, with an underclass nearly twice the size of Arizona's current population in 40 years. Denying citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants would set the United States back decades ago to when the country denied citizenship to descendants of slaves. Because ending birthright citizenship would create a two-tiered system of citizens and generations of immigrant noncitizens, it would discriminate between children of immigrants and children of U.S. citizens.

But supporters of birthright-citizenship reform dismiss that argument, saying any underclass would be a consequence of the United States' failure to confront and fix its border and interiorenforcement problems.

The debate around the 14th amendment: Do the children of illegal immigrants automatically become U.S. citizens when born on American soil?

Under current interpretations of American law, the answer is yes. Since the ratification of the Fourteenth Amendment in 1868, all persons who are born in the United States become citizens if they are “subject to the jurisdiction thereof.” However, the exact meaning of that phrase has become controversial with the rising tide of illegal immigration during the past 20 years. Some constitutional scholars argue that the intent of the authors of the Citizenship Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment was not to include children born to illegal immigrants; others say that its legislative history is mixed. The U. S. Supreme Court has never ruled explicitly on whether the Citizenship Clause applies to unauthorized immigrants. 243 The Citizenship Clause of the 14th Amendment reads: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction, thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

The term “subject to the jurisdiction, thereof” is the key, here. The Fourteenth Amendment specifies two requirements to become a natural born citizen—an individual must be born in the territory of the U.S. and be “subject to the jurisdiction” of the U.S. If you go to the debates on

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Monk, Linda. "Birth Rights: CITIZENSHIP AND THE CONSTITUTION." Constitutioncenter. constitutioncenter.org/media/files/Monograph_BirthRights.pdf>.graph_BirthRights.pdf (accessed October 18, 2012).

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the congressional record of the 14th Amendment, “full jurisdiction” means in part “full allegiance to America.” Because the illegal alien parents are here illegally, and subject to the jurisdiction of whatever country they came from, a divided loyalty exists - hence, based on the 14th Amendment, the children of illegals are not citizens. Since illegal aliens are not subject to the complete jurisdiction of the United States, their children born in the U.S. are not automatically American citizens"244 While debating the 14th Amendment, the statesmen involved intended for the clause to protect the children of the newly emancipated slaves. The language regarding “jurisdiction” was intended to be in line with the original intent of the Founding Fathers. There could be no divided allegiances. Even a hundred years later president Theodore Roosevelt, though progressive on many issues, understood the importance of full allegiance to the United States: “Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag. We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language ... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”—Theodore Roosevelt, 1919.

Michigan Senator Jacob Howard, one of two principal authors of Section 1 of the 14th Amendment (the Citizenship Clause), noted that its provision, “subject to the jurisdiction thereof,” excluded American Indians who had tribal nationalities, and “persons born in the United States who are foreigners, aliens, who belong to the families of ambassadors or foreign ministers.” He even went out of his way to indicate that children born on American soil of foreign citizens are not included.

Some believe that the framers of the Fourteenth Amendment had no intention of freely giving away American citizenship to just anyone simply because they may have been born on American soil.

The second author of the Citizenship Clause, Illinois Senator Lyman Trumbull, added that “subject to the jurisdiction of the United States” meant “not owing allegiance to anybody else.”

Thus for the framers of the Fourteenth Amendment, birth within the geographical limits of the U.S. did not automatically make one subject to the jurisdiction of the U.S. And “jurisdiction” did not mean, as liberal constitutionalists argue, simply subject to the laws of the U.S. or subject to the jurisdiction of its courts. Rather, “jurisdiction” meant exclusive “allegiance” to the U.S. 245 244

"The Fourteenth Amendment and a “natural born citizen”." the Birthers. http://birthers.org/USC/14.html (accessed February 22, 2013).

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"Citizenship and the Fourteenth Amendment – Dialogue and debate forum." PublicSquare.net - Dialogue and debate forum. http://publicsquare.net/citizenship-and-the-fourteenth-amendment (accessed February 22, 2013).

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The case of U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark In 1898, the Supreme Court in U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark proclaimed that the Fourteenth Amendment adopted the common law definition of citizenship and therefore must be interpreted in terms of common law principles. Wong Kim Ark involved the question of whether someone born in the U.S. of legal immigrants was a natural born citizen in terms of the Fourteenth Amendment. Wong Kim Ark’s parents were, by treaty and statute, ineligible for American citizenship, and they retained their allegiance to the emperor of China. Since the parents owed no allegiance to the U.S., their children would follow the allegiance of the parents who, while subject to the laws of the U.S., were not subject to its jurisdiction as understood by the architects of the citizenship provisions of the Fourteenth Amendment.

Ever since Wong Kim Ark’s holding that the Fourteenth Amendment adopted the common law of birthright “citizenship,” it has been assumed that all persons born within the geographical limits of the U.S. are automatically citizens of the U.S., regardless of whether the parents are within the jurisdiction of the U.S. or have legal residence in the U.S. Although some of the language of the majority opinion in Wong Kim Ark seems capacious enough to include the children of illegal aliens, there has been no Supreme Court decision explicitly holding that the children of illegal aliens are automatically accorded birthright citizenship. 246 The Fourteenth Amendment was enacted to prevent discrimination against people of color, including immigrants of color. For many years, throughout different waves of immigration, birthright citizenship was the law of the land. It is no coincidence that birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants is being seriously challenged now that the 2010 Census found that 23% of children in the United States are Hispanic, and many of their parents are immigrants. In addition, advocates for retracting birthright citizenship frequently rely on negative stereotypes about immigrant women.

Retraction of birthright citizenship would also violate the precedent set by the Supreme Court in 1898 in United States v. Wong Kim Ark, holding that children of Chinese immigrants who were then subject to the Chinese exclusion laws and unable to naturalize were entitled to birthright citizenship. The Court reasoned that before the Civil Rights Act and Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution it was “beyond doubt that . . . all white persons, at least, born within the sovereignty of the United States, whether children of citizens or of foreigners, excepting only children of ambassadors or public ministers of a foreign government, were native-born citizens of the United States.” This was the American legal rule of jus soli, but it was

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Monk, Linda. "CITIZENSHIP AND THE CONSTITUTION." Constitutioncenter. constitutioncenter.org/media/files/thirteenthamendmentposter.pdf (accessed February 23, 2013).

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limited by racial discrimination. 247

Non-permanent residents and Birthright-Citizenship Hundreds of thousands of non-permanent residents come every year to the US. Some are there for tourism; some are for studying and there are of course some who are only there to have their babies!

Citizenship by birth is not only an incentive for poor Mexican illegal immigrants but also for people who can afford to enter this country legally on temporary visas. These non-permanent residents are prepared to spend a great deal of money, to gain for their children, the benefits that come with being a US citizen.

Birth tourism Birth tourism is a rising phenomena in the US, such that it is considered a booming industry that thrives on what is perceived by some as the loopholes in the citizenship clause. These perceived loopholes allow thousands of expecting mothers that even come from over seas to do what is called DROP and LEAVE. DROP and LEAVE means that these mothers come to the US have babies and leave with the babies, the US citizens.

And now a lot of people are making a lot of money by taking advantage of the birthright for all principle in the citizenship clause. Hotels and birth tourism centers are marketing special packages for wealthy expecting mothers. Its price ranging from $5,000 to $15,000 (depending on the package) in exchange for a room, medical assistance, and a newborn U.S. citizen (some packages also include sightseeing). Once the child is born, they get a U.S. birth certificate and passport for the child, and their future link to this country is established and irreversible. The process is completely legal.

One entrepreneur working in this business told the Washington Post that they donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t encourage expecting mothers to break the law only to take advantage of it. It is not just benefits that the US offers such as free health care, education or a chance to get scholarships for the most prestigious universities in the world such as Yale and Harvard. Actually it has more to do with the countries of the people seeking birth tourism itself than what the US offers. For instance,

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Culliton-Gonz´alez, Katherina. "Born in the Americas: Birthright Citizenship and Human Rights." Harvard Human Rights Journal. harvardhrj.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Culliton-Gonzalez.pdf (accessed October 18, 2012).

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one of the main reasons that Chinese mothers come to have their babies in the US is simply because they can't have them at all in China due to its strict population control laws. So if a Chinese woman wants to have a second child, she goes to the US to have him or her. It makes sense that Chinese women make a great portion of the people coming for birth tourism. 248 Moreover, a lot of Koreans seek to have their babies in the US to spare them from the mandatory 21 month military service required from every able bodied male, a service that comes when one could be setting the foundation for his career, such problem could be taken care of by simply acquiring the US citizenship. 249 However the numbers are not that alarming, approximately 7,300 babies a year are born to non-permanent resident in 2009, while keeping in mind that the overall number of babies born in the US was 4,255,156 in the same year. That number of babies to non-permanent residents also pales considerably compared to the number of children to illegal aliens. But birth tourism still poses an unsettling question: is the US citizenship for sale? And how much is it worth? 250 Economic factors Unlike the case for illegal immigration which puts great strain on the economy, birth tourism carried by non permanent residents is actually thought to have the ability to boost the economy as such tourism brings wealthy foreigners to the US with a lot of money to spend and that their kids probably won't even stay in the US in most cases to enjoy the free services such as education and health care that the US offers.

A question of alliance and loyalty: One could argue that the children of non-permanent residents, after born will not remain in the US and will probably live in the country of their parents. They might not even know how to speak English. So how could they be citizens of the US and do they owe alliance to it simply because they were born there?

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Richburg, Keith B.. "For many pregnant Chinese, a U.S. passport for baby remains a powerful lure." The Washington Post: National, World & D.C. Area News and Headlines - The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/07/17/AR2010071701402.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

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"Minter: China's 'Birth Tourism' Isn't About the U.S.." Bloomberg. www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-03/china-s-birthtourism-isn-t-about-the-u-s-adam-minter.html (accessed November 4, 2012).

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Gonzalez, Daniel, and The Arizona Republic. " 'Birth tourism' not a widespread practice in U.S., data show - USATODAY.com ." USA TODAY: Latest World and US News - USATODAY.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 Feb. 2013. <http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/2011-08-17-birth-tourism-arizona-border_n.htm>.

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The case of Yasser Esam Hamdi Yasser Hamdi was captured in 2001 in Afghanistan as he was serving with the Taliban against the United States army. After being detained, he was interrogated and deemed an enemy combatant and then sent to Guantanamo bay, Cuba.

There they found out something very interesting. Yasser Hamdi was considered a US citizen. As it happened Yasser was born in Louisiana in the United States of America to Saudi parents while his father was there on temporary work visa (His parents were considered non-permanent residents). Yasser left the USA as a toddler and went back to Saudi Arabia with his parents. He was never to set foot again in the US until his capture. Obviously his alliance was not with the USA; he was fighting against it. Yet he has the full rights of an American citizen and subsequently a get out of Cuba free card.

Yasser was later transferred to a naval base in Norfolk, Virginia, where he waged a legal battle to get access to attorneys. His case was ultimately heard by the US Supreme Court, which held that Yasser had a due process right to challenge the factual basis for his classification and detention as an enemy combatant. Yasser was later released to Saudi Arabia in 2004, on the condition of him giving up the US citizenship, which was not terribly important to Mr. Yasser.

His lawyer, Frank W. Dunham Jr., said in an interview, "He has always thought of himself as a Saudi citizen, and he wasn't willing to spend an extra day in jail over it." 251 The idea of loyalty and allegiance remain key points in the debate over citizenship by birth for non-permanent residents. Some argue that although tourist babies might not have the same emotional connection to America as those born and raised here. However, they would certainly be more sympathetic and supportive of American positions throughout the world. It would be in their self-interest to keep American preeminent in the world. It would be an economic decision for them as it was for their parentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;.

May be maternity tourists are actually creating a pool of well-educated, wealthy, and globallysavvy Americans in key regions around the world, and that they are exactly the type of new American immigrants that policymakers would want to increase Americaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s national competitiveness. 252 251

LICHTBLAU, ERIC. "The New York Times Washington U.S., Bowing to Court, to Free 'Enemy Combatant'." The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 Feb. 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/23/politics/23hamdi.html 252

"Is Maternity Tourism Bad for America?." koreatimes. N.p., n.d. Web. 4 Nov. 2012. <www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2012/09/352_85117.html>

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A lesson to learn in other countries A survey by Ferre, the legal policy analyst at the Center for Immigration Studies, found that 145 countries, including all European countries, do not have pure birthright citizenship.

Of 33 European countries, including all 27 members of the EU and six neighbors, fourteen countries have no jus soli provisions at all: Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Malta, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Switzerland, Sweden and Turkey. None of the remaining nineteen countries has a pure jus soli law like the U.S. Six countries base birthright citizenship on parental residence: Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and the UK. Seven have double jus soli, based on parental birth in the country: Belgium, France, Greece, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. Sixteen of the countries award citizenship by jus soli after birth, automatically by declaration or option â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a child born in the country and who remains there can choose to become a citizen during childhood or at majority - or by facilitated naturalization, which requires an application and thus some discretion, but is advantageous because the requirements are less stringent than for those born outside the country.

Thirty countries have birthright citizenship, including the United States, Canada, and Mexico, as well as most countries in Central and South America such as Argentine Brazil, Peru, according to Feere's survey. There are few countries in Asia that also uphold citizenship by birth such as Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It is important to notice that Canada and the US are the only 2 developed countries in the world that have absolute birthright citizenship. The reason is that only developing countries desire to increase their own citizenry or at least they are not afraid from illegal immigration unlike developed countries. 253 In the past 30 years, several countries have ended or restricted birthright citizenship, including the United Kingdom, Australia, India, Malta and Ireland.

The case of the republic of Ireland is especially interesting, as it was the only remaining country in the European Union to have absolute birth right citizenship, The Irish government called for a referendum to change their citizenship laws because foreign women were traveling to Ireland to give birth in order to get an EU passport for their babies.

The referendum passed overwhelmingly which resulted in the laws changing only to allow Irish

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Keir, Ida. " Jus Soli ." Boston Bar Association . N.p., n.d. Web. 23 Feb. 2013. <http://www.bostonbar.org/sections/international-law/news-archive/2011/11/22/jus-soli>.

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born children to receive automatic citizenship if at least one parent is Irish or if parents have been resident in Ireland for at least three years. 254 Still others say that granting citizenship to all children born in the U.S. regardless of their parents' status actually helps immigrants integrate faster here. Birthright citizenship is a foundation stone of America's historic ability to assimilate immigrants and have them to become productive members of the economy and society, immigrants-rights groups say.

Germany recently made it easier for children of immigrants to become citizens because of longstanding problems with immigrants not integrating, including higher rates of poverty and crime, indicating that the citizenship by birth could help not cause the problem of illegal immigration.

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What now for the U.S.?

Will the U.S. revise what has been one of its fundamental principles since its establishment?

Illegal immigration is a threat that is ever evolving. Many claim that such threat in great part persists because of citizenship by birth and with the U.S. facing its greatest financial crisis yet. Is citizenship by birth a burden too great for it to bear?

While birth tourism does not pose the economic problem that illegal immigration does, it poses, one would argue, a more critical problem; that of loyalty which brings forth the fundamental question: what makes us belong to a certain country?

The world is turning away from jus soli should the U.S. do the same, or should the country that was built by immigrants, who were not all quite legal themselves, continue to walk on the path that made what it is now?

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McKittrick, David. " Ireland prepares to restrict citizenship - Europe - World - The Independent ." The Independent | News . http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ireland-prepares-to-restrict-citizenship-731932.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

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"Phoenix Arizona Photos, Slideshows, Picture Galleries - Best Photos." Azcentral. www.azcentral.com/photo/News/Immigration/18353 (accessed October 18, 2012).

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Stem Cell Research Introduction Millions of people die every year out of degenerative diseases (a disease that causes the death of cells and tissues or even organs), such as heart failure Parkinson's diabetes, and many others that till this day we have no viable cure for. Such diseases have caused people suffering and hardship leaving them without the ability to lead normal lives. The question is, does it have to be this way or could all this change?

Thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s where stem cell research comes along.

Stem cells: Definition Stem cells are our body's main building blocks. What makes them so special is their ability to regenerate and to differentiate to a vast number of different cell types.

So it essentially has the ability to work as an internal repair system for our body by dividing and transforming into the cells needed to replenish our body with what it needs. When a stem cell divides, each new cell has the potential either to remain a stem cell or become another type of cell with a more specialized function, such as a muscle cell, a red blood cell, or even brain cell.

Today, donated organs and tissues are often used to replace those that are diseased or destroyed. Unfortunately, the number of people needing a transplant far exceeds the number of organs available for transplantation. Stem cells offer the possibility of a renewable source of replacement cells and tissues to treat a myriad of diseases, conditions, and disabilities including Parkinson's disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, spinal cord injury, burns, heart disease, diabetes, and arthritis.256

The types of stem cells There are two main types of stem cells

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"What are Stem Cells?." Medical News Today: Health News. http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/info/stem_cell/ (accessed February 23, 2013).

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Adult stem cells

Embryonic stem cells

 Adult stem cells could be found in different parts of the body such as bone marrow, blood and in the umbilical cord among other places.

 Embryonic stem cells are derived from an early stage embryo approximately 4 or 5 days old.

At this stage none of these cells have specialized yet meaning that theoretically they can become any one of the body's 220 different cells, this property is referred to as the pluripotentcy of the  Adult stem cells are tissue cell which is the main advantage of specific meaning that their embryonic stem cells over adult stem properties depend on where they cells which are multipotent because they are from. have the potential to differentiate to whatever cell we need it to be. 258 For instance: Embryonic stem cells have the ability to Stem cells in the bone marrow regenerate indefinitely, which is one of (Hematopoietic adult stem cells) its advantages over adult stem cells, are responsible for regenerating which are more limited. blood cells for the body but they cannot generate for instance nerve cells.  They could also be more easily grown, as they can grow indefinitely inside labs where research on them could give us insights on how our cells divide and differentiate and by acquiring  Adult stem cells have been used such knowledge we can better to a reasonably good effect in understand and fight Cancer and medical treatment for some time birth defects. (Which happens as now. It is used to treat spinal a result of abnormal cell division) cord injuries, degeneration of the heart muscle leukemia and many other cases.

 Embryonic stem cells are known

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Currently it is used to treat different number of diseases.

ď&#x192;&#x2DC; Here are some of the cases where it has proven somewhat successful: -Human patients have been treated with their own stem cells to regenerate the heart muscle destroyed during heart attack or injury. (6 cases in the US) -Twenty-three patients regained their eyesight following limbal (adult) stem cell transplants.

-A 52-year-old woman with rheumatoid arthritis in 38 joints was treated with adult stem cells from her sister. While still in the hospital, her morning stiffness ceased. One year later she is free of the disease and off medication.

for their promising potential to cure diseases we thought were incurable, diseases that have haunted our lives for so long and have taken our loved ones from us diseases such as Parkinson's Alzheimer's and diabetes, however embryonic stem cells as it stands now are only used in clinical trials and not even many of them.

Many people attribute that fact to that embryonic stem cells were never properly funded unlike adult stem cells.

ď&#x192;&#x2DC; There is a much lesser chance for harmful DNA mutations in embryonic stem cells because of their youth and that they have not been subjected to all the variables that adult stem cells went through and could affect their validity.

Perhaps the greatest advantage that adult stem cells have is when used in most cases they will not be rejected by the patients immunity system because those adult stem cells are derived from the very same patient or a close relative unlike embryonic stem cells that could be genetically different from the in need of the patient. 257

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"Stem Cell Types | Closer Look." Closer Look. http://www.closerlookatstemcells.org/Stem_Cell_Types.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

"Stem Cell Types | Closer Look." Closer Look. http://www.closerlookatstemcells.org/Stem_Cell_Types.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

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Embryonic Stem Cells Research Controversy Embryonic stem cell research poses a moral problem, as it brings into tension two fundamental moral principles that we highly value: the duty to prevent or alleviate suffering, and the duty to respect the value of human life. The harvesting of human embryonic stem cells violates this second duty as it results in the destruction of a possible human life. Both principles cannot simultaneously be respected in the case of embryonic stem cell research. The question then is which principle ought to be given precedence in this conflict situation. 259

Embryo: When does life begin?

The concept of an embryo is a staggering one. As the fertilized egg develops into the baby we see at birth, it goes through three main stages of growth: 1. the stage of the zygote (before implantation in the uterus), 2. the stage of the embryo (early in the pregnancy), and 3. the stage of the fetus (later in the pregnancy). 260 Some parties argue that embryos are not equivalent to human life while they are still incapable of surviving outside the womb (i.e. they only have the potential for life). They contend that embryos are not humans, believing that the life of Homosapiens only begins when the heartbeat develops, which is during the 5th week of pregnancy or when the brain begins developing activity, which has been detected at 54 days after conception.

Stem cell debates have motivated and reinvigorated the pro-life movement, whose members are concerned with the rights and status of the embryo as an early-aged human life. They can believe that embryonic stem cell research violates the sanctity of life and some also view it as tantamount to murder. The fundamental assertion of those who oppose embryonic stem cell research is the belief that human life is inviolable, combined with the belief that human life begins when a sperm cell fertilizes an egg cell to form a single cell. 261 A scientific textbook called "Basics of Biology" gives five characteristics of living things; these five criteria are found in all modern elementary scientific textbooks: 61

"Adult vs. Embryonic Stem Cells." Understanding Stem Cell Research and Treatments . http://www.explorestemcells.co.uk/adultvsembryonicstemcells.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

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"Human Embryonic Stem Cell Research and Ethics." Eurostemcell. www.eurostemcell.org/files/Human_ES_ethics_1.pdf (accessed October 21, 2012).

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"Development of Embryo and Fetus." Development of Embryo and Fetus. zeus4.cms.huberlin.de/sexology/ATLAS_EN/html/development_of_embryo_and_fetu.html (accessed October 21, 2012).

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"BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Bush 'out of touch' on stem cells." BBC News - Home. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5197926.stm (accessed February 23, 2013).

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1. Living things are highly organized.

2. All living things have an ability to acquire materials and energy.

3. All living things have an ability to respond to their environment.

4. All living things have an ability to reproduce.

5. All living things have an ability to adapt.

According to this elementary definition of life, life begins at fertilization, when a sperm unites with an egg. From this moment, the being is highly organized, has the ability to acquire materials and energy, has the ability to respond to his or her environment, has the ability to adapt, and has the ability to reproduce (the cells divide, then divide again, etc., and barring pathology and pending reproductive maturity has the potential to reproduce other members of the species). Non-living things do not do these things. Even before the mother is aware that she is pregnant, a distinct, unique life has begun his or her existence inside her. 262 It is true that for centuries science has shown that all human beings begin as fertilized eggs. But it is not true that all fertilized eggs can or do produce human beings. In fact, it could be wrong to say that every fertilized egg is a person, that to even suggest that science provides support for that is thought by some to be absurd.

What are the odds of a fertilized egg becoming a person?

This is what we know: During the period of embryonic development that begins with fertilization and ends with successful implantation, about 50 percent of human conceptions fail to survive. The main reason for this high failure rate is the inability of huge numbers of fertilized eggs to implant.

What science has found is that around half of all conceptions don't make it to implantation.

Calling a fertilized egg a person flies in the face of this cruel biological reality. Half of all fertilized eggs cannot even become an embryo, much less a person. Indeed, given the grim odds that face fertilized eggs, no one in science or medicine refers to a fertilized egg as an embryo unless it manages to implant.

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modern, all the criteria of. "when does life begin?." Association of Pro-life Physicians. http://www.prolifephysicians.org/lifebegins.htm (accessed February 23, 2013).

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What type of embryos issued?

Usually scientists use extra embryos that in-vitro fertilization clinics would otherwise discard.

Some researchers have suggested that the thousands of fertilized embryos that have been stored frozen at those clinics could be donated for research as well. 263 According to the American Medical Association, there are approximately 215 clinics around the country that house an estimated 2.2 million human embryos. The majority of these embryos has no use and will be discarded unless research is conducted. 264 If potential parents decide against having more children, scientists working with stem cells might ask them to consider donating the unneeded embryos to research. In the most controversial method, scientists can also pull stem cells from aborted fetuses, first asking for signed consent from a patient whoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d previously (and independently) decided to terminate her pregnancy. This is the procedure most often highlighted by pro-life activists who oppose supporting stem cell research. 265 New techniques for gathering the cells are in development; scientists are generally wary of disclosure, because public reaction is difficult to predict. Revelations that scientists at a privately-funded Virginia fertility clinic are growing human embryos with the intent of harvesting stem cells have provoked widespread hand-wringing, among both advocates and opponents of stem cell research. Advocates worry that publicizing such a blatant and systematic cell harvesting procedure can only harden hearts against the science; in the crude terms of public relations, using stem cells from discarded embryos is one thing, but purposefully creating an embryo only to dismantle it is something else altogether. Opponents of the research see the Virginia clinics methodology as the best indication yet that we are carelessly sliding down the slippery slope of destroying human life in order to advance our scientific curiosity. 266

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Category. "Debate Over Use of Embryonic Stem Cells." Rare Diseases - Information About Rare Diseases. http://rarediseases.about.com/cs/clinicaltrials/a/040301.htm (accessed February 23, 2013).

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Chavis, Jason. "Advantages of Embryonic Stem Cell Research | eHow.com." eHow | How to Videos, Articles & More Discover the expert in you. | eHow.com. http://www.ehow.com/about_4780664_advantages-embryonic-stem-cellresearch.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

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"The Great Debate Over Stem Cell Research - TIME." Breaking News, Analysis, Politics, Blogs, News Photos, Video, Tech Reviews - TIME.com. http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,167245,00.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

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"The Great Debate Over Stem Cell Research - TIME." Breaking News, Analysis, Politics, Blogs, News Photos, Video, Tech Reviews - TIME.com. http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,167245,00.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

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The legal status on embryonic stem cells: Just as the promise of embryonic stem cell research predated the reality, so did the political controversy and the active involvement of anti-abortion activists. And all this of course had legal ramifications. The battle around embryonic stem cells was always about federal funding and it started long ago.

The Dicky wicker amendment 1996 The Dickey-Wicker Amendment is an amendment attached to the appropriations bills for the Departments of Health and Human Services, Labor, and Education each year since 1996 restricting the use of federal funds for creating, destroying, or knowingly injuring human embryos.

Such amendment was in response to the 1994 recommendations of the National Institutes of Health Human Embryo Research Panel. The Panel, which consisted of ethicists, public policy analysts, and patients’ advocates, among others, was assembled to evaluate when and under what circumstances human embryo research should be federally funded. They also assessed what moral and ethical controversies would be raised by this research and compiled their findings in a report titled “Report of the Human Embryo Research Panel” issued on 27 September 1994. The Panel ultimately recommended that research on unused gametes and embryos from fertility procedures like in vitro fertilization should be allowed with the informed consent of the donor. The Panel also approved the creation of embryos for research purposes.

The Dickey-Wicker amendment was the response of the Republican-controlled House and Senate to ethical concerns surrounding federal funding for any research involving human embryos.

In 1998, James Thomson of the University of Wisconsin created the first human stem-cell line using private funds. Harriet Rabb, a lawyer at the Department of Health and Human Services, soon found a way around the Dickey-Wicker amendment because of Thomson’s discovery. The amendment provided a definition for embryos, but Rabb reasoned that human stem cell lines did not fall under this definition, so experimentation with the lines derived using private funds could receive federal funding as long as the funding doesn’t go to the process of destroyi ng the embryos to obtain the embryonic stem cell lines. 267 The national institute of health then drafted guidelines for the research on human embryonic stem cells that is eligible for federal funding. The main points was that the derivation process 267

"The Embryo Project Encyclopedia." The Embryo Project Encyclopedia. http://embryo.asu.edu/view/embryo:128106 (accessed February 23, 2013).

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which leads to the death of the embryo cannot be federally funded but after that the stem cell line can be funded if it meets certain requirements. 268

The Bush Administration Era Bush attempted to walk a fine line between those clamoring for funding for stem cell research and those—including many of the administration's most steadfast allies—wanting a complete ban on the work. The president announced that funding would continue on embryonic stem cells lines but only those lines that have already been created prior to August 9, 2001.

Scientists said the number of cell lines needed to conduct meaningful research was much greater than the policy would permit, while also questioning the availability and variability of the stem cell lines that were eligible for federal funding.269

The Obama Administration Era On March 9, 2009 president Barrack Obama signed an executive order, 13505, to over turn George bush's policy on embryonic stem cells and effectively lifting the federal funding ban on them while also requiring the national institute of health to form guidelines for responsible research on embryonic stem cells eligible for funding.

Here are some of the guidelines that the national institute of health decided on: 1- Embryos used should have been created for reproductive reasons only in vitro fertilization clinics and would otherwise be discarded if not used in research 2- Embryos used should be donated with the voluntary consent of the donors in knowledge that they will be used for research purposes and that the donors receive no financial gain.

Many saw this executive as a victory for medical research; however the president's decision was heavily contested. 270 In 2010 chief Judge Royce C. Lamberth of Federal District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that the Obama administration’s policy was illegal because the administration’s distinction between work that leads to the destruction of embryos — which cannot be financed by the federal government under the current policy (Dicky Wicker amendment) — and the financing of work using stem cells created through embryonic destruction was meaningless.

269

Gold, Rachel Benson. "Embryonic Stem Cell Research—Old Controversy; New Debate." Guttmacher Institute: Home Page. http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/tgr/07/4/gr070404.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

270

"Frequently Asked Questions." 2009 Guidelines on Human Stem Cell Research . stemcells.nih.gov/policy/2009guidelines.htm (accessed November 4, 2012).

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The ruling posed an interesting question isn’t making funding available for embryonic stem cell lines after the researchers destroy them is actually giving them incentive to do the destroying which the government should have no part in? 271 Judge Lamberth ruling was later overturned and the suspension of funding upheld by a Washington court of appeals pending a final decision. Till this day people look forward to a definitive legislative solution for the everlasting problem of the funding of embryonic stem cell research. So will we see one soon? 272

Cloning Definition: Cloning is producing a cell, group of cells, or organism asexually from and is genetically identical to a single ancestor. 273

Types of Cloning 1-Reproductive cloning: It is the type of cloning that involves taking the nucleus from a somatic cell like the skin (any cell from the body other than the germ cells which are cells that fuse during sexual reproduction) and injecting this nucleus into an egg cell whose nucleus has been removed. Then by using chemicals or electric current, the cell will divide until it reaches a suitable stage (being a 5 days embryo). The embryo is then injected into the uterus of a female host where it grows until birth.

2-Therapeutic cloning: The type of cloning that involves the same procedures of the reproductive cloning (the SCNT somatic cell nuclear transfer technique) but doesn't allow the embryo to grow as when the embryo ages 5 days the stem cells are being extracted from the embryo for the sake of using them in medical treatment and organ transplant causing the destruction of the embryo which imposes certain ethical debates. 274 271

HARRIS, GARDINER. "Judge Halts Obamaâ s Expansion of Stem Cell Research - NYTimes.com." The New York Times Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/24/health/policy/24stem.html?pagewanted=all (accessed February 23, 2013).

272

"BBC News - US stem cell research funding ban lifted by court." BBC - Homepage. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/world-us-canada-13246775 (accessed February 23, 2013).

273

"clone - Science Definition." Science. http://science.yourdictionary.com/clone (accessed February 23, 2013).

274

"Biotechnology and Types of Cloning." Biotech Articles - Publish Biotechnology Articles or Press Release. http://www.biotecharticles.com/Genetics-Article/Biotechnology-and-Types-of-Cloning-77.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

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The Relation between types of cloning and stem cell research: The relation of interest in our topic is that between the "therapeutic cloning" and stem cell research .As we said this type is being used for the purpose of extracting stem cells from embryos that are being made in fertilizing clinics to be used in medical treatments. Using the therapeutic cloning can benefit the stem cell research on many bases because: - the risk of the immune system rejecting the stem cells is diminished because the patient's own genetic material is used. If a cell line were created with cells from another individual, the patient's body would be more likely to recognize the foreign proteins and then wage an attack on the transplanted cells causing failure of the transplant. This means that therapeutic cloning has the potential to dramatically reduce the wait times for organ transplants as well as the immunological concerns associated with organ transplant therapy.

- Therapeutic cloning helps enhance our understanding of stem cells and how they develop until they become specialized cells. This understanding can hopefully lead to new treatments or cures for some of the common diseases affecting people today like cancer, Parkinson's and AlZheimer's. In addition, the procedure would allow scientists to create stem cell therapies that are patient specific and perfectly matched for the patient's medical condition. 275

Medical and Ethical debate around the therapeutic Cloning Although therapeutic cloning has several medical benefits still some ethical and medical problems are associated with it.

-Firstly, in therapeutic cloning many attempts are often required to create a viable egg. As the stability of the egg with the infused somatic nucleus is poor and it can require hundreds of attempts before success is attained.

-Secondly, the extraction of the stem cells from the embryo causes its destruction leaving us in front of the question is an embryo considered a life?

-Thirdly, the fear that a scientist may attempt to move beyond therapeutic cloning to creation of a human by using the SCNT (somatic cell nuclear transplant) technique used in reproductive cloning which if happened will certainly raise crucial ethical questions as: On what grounds could reproducing children by cloning be allowed "Biotechnology Online Home." Biotechnology Online Home. http://www.biotechnologyonline.gov.au/biotechnologyonline/migration.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

275

Micha Drukker. "Immunological Considerations for Cell Therapy Using Human Embryonic Stem Cell Derivatives | StemBook."

Immunological Considerations for Cell Therapy Using Human Embryonic Stem Cell Derivatives | StemBook. Institute for Stem Cell Biology and Regenerative Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, n.d. Web. 31 Oct. 2012. node/531>.

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Or prohibited? Should cloning be used for homosexual couples that want biological offspring?

How would a child born by asexual reproduction experience life, as a unique individual or as a genetic â&#x20AC;&#x153;prisonerâ&#x20AC;??

Human reproductive cloning is a real disputed ethical issue although it can help provide genetically related children for sterile women who cannot reproduce, it is still regarded as unethical Because of the high rates of deformity, disability and death resulting from cloning, people question whether resulting humans would be healthy and treated like normal individual!

The fear to disregard human dignity and harm human psychic health makes people along with governments despise the idea of human cloning. 276

The legal status of Cloning in the US Cloning issues are important for many countries, especially the U.S. where you can find that Presidents George bush and Obama were always keen on appointing an advisory committee specialized in biotech issues that advises the president on bioethical issues, arising from advances in biomedicine and related areas of science and technology, in addition to the Food and Drug Administration which has regulatory jurisdiction over clinical research using cloning technology in humans.

Still the US did not ban reproductive cloning nationwide as France and Germany. 277 But On the state level each state has its own law regarding this issue, for instance:

State

Summary

Prohibits Reproductive Cloning

Prohibits Therapeutic Cloning

Arizona

Bans the use of public monies for reproductive Prohibits use of Prohibits use or therapeutic cloning. public monies of public monies

276

"Therapeutic Cloning." Understanding Stem Cell Research and Treatments . http://www.explorestemcells.co.uk/therapeuticcloning.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

"Human Cloning Ethical Issues." UNESCO. unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0013/001359/135928e.pdf (accessed October 31, 2012).

277

"Cloning Laws and Public Policy." Redirecting. http://staff.lib.msu.edu/skendall/cloning/laws.htm (accessed February 23, 2013).

"About the Commission." Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues. bioethics.gov/cms/about (accessed October 31, 2012).

"Countries with Bans on Human Cloning And/or Genetic Engineering | Public Agenda." Countries with Bans on Human Cloning And/or Genetic Engineering | Public Agenda. www.publicagenda.org/charts/countries-bans-human-cloning-andor-geneticengineering (accessed October 31, 2012).

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Arkansas

Prohibits therapeutic and reproductive cloning; yes may not ship, transfer or receive the product of human cloning; human cloning is punishable as a Class C felony and by a fine of not less than $250,000 or twice the amount of pecuniary gain that is received by the person or entity, whichever is greater

yes

California

Prohibits reproductive cloning; permits cloning yes for research; provides for the revocation of licenses issued to businesses for violations relating to human cloning; prohibits the purchase or sale of ovum, zygote, embryo, or fetus for the purpose of cloning human beings; establishes civil penalties

no

Connecticut

Prohibits reproductive cloning, permits cloning yes for research; punishable by not more than one hundred thousand dollars or imprisonment for not more than ten years, or both

no

Indiana

Prohibits reproductive and therapeutic cloning; yes allows for the revocation of a hospital's license involved in cloning; specifies that public funds may not be used for cloning; prohibits the sale of a human ovum, zygote, embryo or fetus;

no

278

Other countries laws on stem cells and cloning China China has one of the most unrestrictive stem cell policies. In 2003, guidelines were issued that required that embryos used for stem cell research be left over from in vitro fertilization (IVF); fetal cells from abortions; blastocysts from Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer (SCNT); or germ line cells voluntarily donated. Interestingly, according to Chinese cultural attitudes, a personâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s life begins with birth.

278

" Human Cloning Laws ." NCSL Home . http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/health/human-cloning-laws.aspx (accessed February 23, 2013).

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Australia Australia bans all human cloning for reproduction or research. It does allow for the use of embryos remaining after assisted reproduction from before April 5, 2002.

United Kingdom The Human Fertilization and Embryology Act (HFEA) of 1990 and the Human Reproductive Cloning Act of 2001 permit the destruction of embryos for human embryonic stem cells (hESC) and allows for SCNT. This is only permissible if the proposed research increases knowledge about the development of embryos or serious disease or enables such knowledge to be applied in developing treatments for serious diseases. As a result, the United Kingdom is one of the leading centers for hESC research Mexico While Mexico has a flourishing stem cell industry; it does not have formal regulations. Mexican doctors currently are using stem cells to treat ill foreigners, including Americans, who suffer from ailments such as cerebral palsy, autism, and paralysis. The international medical community has criticized this lack of regulation.279 Germany The use of embryos for research is heavily restricted in Germany under the Embryo Protection Act (Embryonenschutzgesetz) of 1991, which makes the derivation of embryonic stem cell lines a criminal offence. The embryo is also protected under the German Constitution (Grundgesetz).

The Basic Law states that “human dignity is inviolable” and that “everyone has the right to life and inviolability of his person.” Nonetheless, it also states the freedom to pursue science and research. German law gives priority to adult stem cells under the 2002 Stem Cell Act (Stammzellgesetz). But the importation of embryonic stem cell lines into Germany is permitted under strict conditions approved by the German parliament. The 2002 Act included a ‘cut-off date’ of 1 January 2002 – imported ES cell lines must have been derived before that date. In 2008, as a result of pressure from scientists, the act was amended to move the cut-off point to 1 May 2007. In addition to these criteria, embryonic stem cell lines can only be used for research if they are vital in developing new medical and scientific knowledge. 280

279

"Stem cell issue: Stem Cell Research Policies around the World." National Center for Biotechnology Information. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2744936/ (accessed February 23, 2013).

280

"Regulation of stem cell research in Germany | Mittelpunkt der Stammzellenforschung in Europa | EuroStemCell." Europe's stem cell hub | EuroStemCell | Stem cell research, regenerative medicine and stem cell ethics. Resources, fact sheets, FAQ.. http://www.eurostemcell.org/de/node/20496 (accessed February 23, 2013).

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Are there other solutions to the controversy of embryonic stem cells and cloning?

Adult stem cells taken from the blood or organs of healthy adults have recently demonstrated an unexpected adaptability in lab experiments. But these cells are marginally helpful to scientists, and do not show the same promise as those culled from embryos. Adult cells are fairly set in their ways, and they seem to grow or replicate themselves as quickly as their younger counterparts. Pro-life supporters often claim that the use of adult stem cells from sources such as umbilical cord blood has consistently produced more promising results than the use of embryonic stem cells.281

Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) are adult cells that have been genetically reprogrammed to an embryonic stem cellâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;like state by being forced to express genes and factors important for maintaining the defining properties of embryonic stem cells. Although these cells meet the defining criteria for pluripotent stem cells, it is not known if iPSCs and embryonic stem cells differ in clinically significant ways. Although additional research is needed, iPSCs are already useful tools for drug development and modeling of diseases, and scientists hope to use them in transplantation medicine. Viruses are currently used to introduce the reprogramming factors into adult cells, and this process must be carefully controlled and tested before the technique can lead to useful treatments for humans. In animal studies, the virus used to introduce the stem cell factors sometimes causes cancers. Researchers are currently investigating non-viral delivery strategies.

Tissues derived from iPSCs will be a nearly identical match to the cell donor and thus probably avoid rejection by the immune system. The iPSC strategy creates pluripotent stem cells that, together with studies of other types of pluripotent stem cells, will help researchers learn how to reprogram cells to repair damaged tissues in the human body. iPSCs overcome many of the ethical concerns facing embryonic stem cells and cloning as they can be patient specific and do not require the destruction of embryos. However iPSCs are still taking their first steps and naturally facing some problems such as the tendency for tumors to evolve after iPSCs transplantation and that they may have shorter life spans than embryonic

281

"The Great Debate Over Stem Cell Research - TIME." Breaking News, Analysis, Politics, Blogs, News Photos, Video, Tech Reviews - TIME.com. http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,167245,00.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

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stem cells due to the donor cell age. iPSCs are a work in progress but it has the potential to revolutionize the field of medicine. 282 Some experts believe it's wise to continue the study of all stem cell types, since we're not sure yet which one will be the most useful for cell replacement therapies. An additional ethical consideration is that iPSCs cells have the potential to develop into a human embryo, in effect producing a clone of the donor. 283 Should iPSCs cells and adult stem cells be preferred for funding?

Chimeras The word chimera comes from the Greek mythology about a monster with the head of a lion, the body of a goat, and the tail of a serpent. But the chimera that we are talking about here has nothing to do with mythology. A chimera, in science, is a reality!

Definition Chimera is a creature with DNA, cells, tissues or organs from two or more individuals. This means one creature or individual can have two distinct genomes. If the tissue comes from two different species, this produces something called an interspecific chimera. And to say a chimera is not a hybrid because chimeras are not produced through sexual reproduction, as hybrids are.

Mules, born from a male donkey and a female horse, are hybrids, not chimeras as chimeras are produced asexually. 284

Kinds of chimeras: There are several kinds of chimeras including human/human chimeras, animal/human chimeras and animal/animal chimeras.

1-Human/Human chimera: Human /Human chimeras happen if two zygotes of non identical twins fuse together to form one person, that person still carries 2 different sets of genomes but that case is very rare. What happens much more often is when a person gets any kind of transplant such as blood, organ, tissue he is actually considered a chimera because he now has his own set of genome and also 282

"HOPES." Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells: The Future of Tissue Generation . https://www.stanford.edu/group/hopes/cgibin/wordpress/2011/07/induced-pluripotent-stem-cells-the-future-of-tissue-generation/ (accessed November 4, 2012).

283

"The Stem Cell Debate: Is It Over?." Learn.Geneticsâ&#x201E;˘. http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/tech/stemcells/scissues/ (accessed February 23, 2013).

284 "What Is a Chimera? - Curiosity." Curiosity. www.medterms.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=8905 (accessed October 31, 2012).

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that of the organ or blood or tissue that is transplanted with in him. However human chimeras are not of interest to stem cell researches. 285 2-Human/Animal chimera: If the full potential of stem cell research therapies is ever to be realized it is unavoidable that we will need chimeras. Researchers will need to study how stem cells behave and react to chemical cues inside the body. Unless they are to do those risky first experiments in humans, they will need the freedom to test in animals and thereby make chimeras. It is because of embryonic stem cells that we have human animal chimeras. The procedure is simple: chimeras can be produced by inserting human stem cells into animal fetuses or embryos. Biomedical scientists are hopeful that a more sophisticated understanding and ability to control both animal development and human stem cells will someday allow the production of animals with human organs formed in place of animal organs, possibly solving the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s shortage of organs for patients who need transplants.

Remarkably, progress along these lines has already been made: A-Sheep with human components: Alan Flake at Children's Hospital in Philadelphia and Esmail Zanjani at the University of Nevada incorporated human stem cells into early sheep fetuses while they were growing in their mothers' wombs. After birth, a wide variety of lamb tissues including blood, cartilage, muscle and heart displayed human contributions of up to 40%, although external body features were always entirely animal-like.286

285

"Which Half Is Mommy?: Tetragametic Chimerism and Trans-Subjectivity | Aaron T Norton - Academia.edu." Academia.edu Share research. http://www.academia.edu/202539/Which_Half_Is_Mommy_Tetragametic_Chimerism_and_Trans-Subjectivity (accessed February 23, 2013).

"Nature Reports Stem Cells." Nature Publishing Group: science journals, jobs, and information. http://www.nature.com/stemcells/2007/0706/070614/full/stemcells.2007.31.html (accessed February 23, 2013). " "Microchimerism." Microchimerism. http://www.microchimerism.org/ (accessed February 23, 2013).

286

Silver, Lee. "Human-Animal Chimeras: From Mythology To Biotechnology." Science 2.0 - ÂŽ The world's best scientists, the Internet's smartest readers.. http://www.science20.com/challenging_nature/humananimal_chimeras_mythology_biotechnology (accessed February 23, 2013).

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B- Mice with human brain: Controversial study has been conducted by Stanford University of California. A group of scientists from the Institute of Cancer/Stem Cell Biology had already successfully created mice with brains that have one percent human cells.287

"Pinky, are you thinking what I'm thinking?"

"Yes, Brain, but isn't that dangerous?

C-Pigs with human blood: Using genetic engineering techniques, biologists have created pigs that produce human hemoglobin, the essential oxygen-carrying component of blood.

Experts believe that it could help find a substitute for blood that could be used in all types of transfusions and might offer advantages over the donated blood now used. 288 3-Animal / Animal chimeras Chimeras play a very important role in the stem cell research. They are meant to provide better understanding for how the stem cells are turned into specialized cells, which are then developed into organs. This field is being investigated through the research on chimeric animals (animal / animal chimeras) like the chimeric monkeys which were developed in Oregon health center by creating a monkey with different sets of genomes and was considered a huge success for science since monkeys are considered the most complicated among animals, and through which scientists were able to see how cell function can differ in species.

A release from Oregon National center says "As we move stem cell therapies from the lab to 287

" Mouse With Human Brain May Live | LiveScience ." Science News â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Science Articles and Current Events | LiveScience . http://www.livescience.com/159-mouse-human-brain-live.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

Weiss, Rick. "Human Brain Cells Are Grown In Mice." The Washington Post: National, World & D.C. Area News and Headlines The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/12/AR2005121201388.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

288

HILTS, PHILIP J.. "GENE-ALTERED PIGS PRODUCE KEY PART OF HUMAN BLOOD - New York Times." The New York Times Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. http://www.nytimes.com/1991/06/16/us/gene-altered-pigs-produce-key-part-ofhuman-blood.html?pagewanted=all (accessed February 23, 2013).

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clinics and from the mouse to humans, we need to understand what these cells do and what they can't do and also how cell function can differ in species." 289

Chimeras Debate Medical and research potential of Chimeras v. Moral Ethics: Despite its potential, chimera research faces significant opposition from a wide spectrum of the population. While scientific and public health concerns exist, the majority of the opposition focus on the violation of current ethical and moral codes that arises from creating and using chimeras. At closer examination, however, all of these objections stem from an unwillingness to surrender society’s rigid view of human identity and uniqueness. The debate over chimera research represents the changing perception of humanity and our place in the world.

By creating animals with human cells, scientists can monitor and track cell differentiation, tissue development, and organ formation without using human infants as subjects. Since chimeras develop from a class of stem cells called nuclear transplant stem cells (NTES), they can be used to study the “molecular mechanisms governing fundamental biological phenomena, such as pluripotency, reprogramming, differentiation, and imprinting. Scientists can also use chimeras to study the progress and mechanisms of diseases in live tissues and organs. Chimeras with human tissues offer a fairly accurate substitute for a real human body.

With the current state of technology, research using human-nonhuman chimeras provides the most accurate method of observation aside from directly studying human embryos themselves.290 In addition to helping the study of disease, chimeras also offer a safer and more ethical method of testing for new drugs. FDA regulations require new drugs to undergo extensive pre-clinical studies to examine their absorption, distribution, metabolism, and toxicity before clinical tests on human subjects. Current procedures rely mostly on animal testing, which at best gives 289

Schupak, Amanda. "Scientists Engineer "Chimera" Primates to Combat Human Ailments | Popular Science." Popular Science | New Technology, Science News, The Future Now. http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-07/scientists-engineerchimera-primates-combat-human-ailments (accessed February 23, 2013).

Phillip Karpowicz, Cynthia B. Cohen, and Derek Van Der Kooy. "Developing Human-Nonhuman Chimeras."

"The Promise of Chimeras | Center for American Progress." Center for American Progress. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/technology/news/2006/09/14/2136/the-promise-of-chimeras/ (accessed February 23, 2013).

Vivienne Lam. "The Science Creative Quarterly » THE TRUTH ABOUT CHIMERAS." The Science Creative Quarterly. http://www.scq.ubc.ca/the-truth-about-chimeras/ (accessed February 23, 2013).

290 for, giving nonhumans some of the physical components necessary. "Human/Non-Human Chimeras (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)." Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chimeras (accessed February 23, 2013).

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scientists an estimation of the drug’s effect on a human. Testing on animals such as the common lab mouse provides inaccurate results due to the large differences in physiology and biochemistry. Greater accuracy requires testing on animals similar to humans, such as primates, which raises ethical and financial challenges. Human-animal chimeras provide a loophole through this dilemma by creating a lower animal that has human cells in the organs and system targeted by the drug. This method of testing not only reduces the risk to clinical trial subjects, but also helps make new medications available to patients sooner by speeding up the testing procedure.291 On the other hand, chimera research poses scientific, religious, and ethical problems. The scientific concerns mostly involve the public health consequences of the spreading of disease between species. Many of the deadliest diseases, such as AIDS, have only recently spread from animals to humans. The recent scares of avian and swine influenzas have demonstrated that diseases usually spread across species through constant, close contact. In this regard, a chimera provides the perfect vessel for diseases to overcome the species barrier, because cells from two different species are integrated in the same body. 292 Chimera research also faces staunch opposition from many religious groups. Many Hindus disdain chimeric research involving cows, the sacred animals that are to be treated with the same respect “as one’s mother.” For the opposite reason, chimeric research involving many lower animals, especially pigs, disagrees with the beliefs of Judaism, Islam, and sects of Christianity like the Seventh-day Adventists.

In 2005, the Pontifical Council for Health stated the Catholic Church’s stance on the subject, saying that human genes “embody the characteristic uniqueness of the person, which medicine is bound to protect.” 293 One argument asserts that the artificial creation of chimeras constitutes an unnatural breach of the species barrier. The act transgresses the laws of nature and produces an organism “against its natural evolutionary will.” 294 291

M. Teillet and N. Le Douarin, “Experimental Analysis of the Migration and Differentiation of Neuroblasts of the Autonomic Nervous System and of Neuroectodermal Mesenchymal Derivatives Using a Biological Cell Marking Technique.” Developmental Biology 41, no. 1 (1974): 162–184.

292

"CDC - Biosafety in Microbiological and Biomedical Laboratories (BMBL) 5th Edition." Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. http://www.cdc.gov/biosafety/publications/bmbl5/index.htm (accessed February 23, 2013).

293

"Chimeras, moral status, and public policy: ... [J Law Med Ethics. 2010] - PubMed - NCBI." National Center for Biotechnology Information. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20579247 (accessed February 23, 2013).

294

16. International Society of Bioethics. “Universal commitment to the dignity of the human being.” II World Conference on Bioethics, Spain, (2002).

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Currently, society’s moral and ethical framework calls for a distinct separation between humans and animals. A part-human, part-animal organism, therefore, creates a significant moral challenge, in that “the moral status of nonhuman animals, unlike that of human beings, invariably depends in part on features other than species membership, such as the intention with which the animal came into being. With human beings the intention with which one is created is irrelevant to one’s moral status.” The “dual-citizenship” presents a crippling problem to a moral code that has no experience in dealing with such a case. While few believe that the possession of human cells alone warrants human species membership and consideration, many believe that certain chimeras share enough in common with humans to deserve human treatment.295

Legal Status of Chimeras Do human-animal chimeras deserve constitutional protection as “persons”? In recent years, the United States’ Patent and Trademark Office (PTO) has routinely granted patents on organisms that contain human genetic material while rejecting chimera patents. Many patents have been granted for claims to recombinant organisms in which human genes have been inserted into the genome of another organism. The reason for the PTO’s differential treatment of these recombinant organisms and human-animal chimera seems to relate to the very nature of chimera: they contain entire, unaltered human cells, and by changing the method of production, the percentage of human tissue could be very high. Therefore, chimeras toe the line of humanity more conspicuously than traditional recombinant organisms.

In 2004, Congress passed and President Bush signed into law a provision of the federal budget that prohibits the PTO from issuing patents on “human organisms.” The provision has become widely known as the Weldon Amendment, after its author. The Weldon Amendment states, “None of the funds appropriated or otherwise made available under this Act may be used to issue patents on claims directed to or encompassing a human organism.” The Weldon Amendment does not attempt to ban the production of human-animal chimera altogether because it is limited to PTO funding. 296

295

D "British Nod to Embryo 'Chimeras' Raises Hackles in Germany | Europe | DW.DE | 21.05.2008 ." TOP STORIES | DW.DE. http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,3351368,00.html (accessed February 23, 2013).

296

BENNETT, SCOTT. "CHIMERA AND THE CONTINUUM OF HUMANITY: ERASING THE LINE OF CONSTITUTIONAL PERSONHOOD.." law.emory. www.law.emory.edu/fileadmin/journals/elj/55/2/Bennett.pdf (accessed October 22, 2012).

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Stem cells research what now?

The debate around stem cells research questions our humanity on many aspects. To what extent are we willing to go in the name of science and alleviating human suffering are we improving the quality of life or are we preventing it?

Is now the time to fully support and fund embryonic stem cells research or is a more moderate approach in which we balance the funding between adult and embryonic stem cells is the way to go?

What sort of regulations should be enacted to make sure that embryonic stem cell research meets certain moral standards?

What is the role of cloning and chimeras in such debate? Could such things be used wisely in the service of humanity or is man tampering with things he does not fully comprehend, and is bordering on playing God?

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Chair-lady: Emmy Soliman Vice-Chairman: Alaa Mobarez Ranking memeber: Ahmad Ashraf Ali Party Consultant: Mostafa Hussien 180

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About the Committee:

History & Jurisdiction The Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs is the chief oversight committee of the United States Senate. It has jurisdiction over matters related to the Department of Homeland Security and other homeland security concerns, as well as the functioning of the government itself, including the National Archives, budget and accounting measures, and the affairs of the District of Columbia.

In 2003, after the Homeland Security Act of 2002 established the Department of Homeland Security, the Committee adopted primary oversight of the creation and subsequent policies, operations, and action pars of the Department. Over the years, the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs has dealt with a number of important issues, including government accountability, Congressional ethics, regulatory affairs, and systems and information security.

Chairmanship:

Chairman Senator Thomas Carper Democrat-Delaware

Ranking Member Senator Thomas Coburn Republican-Oklahoma

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Briefing about the MAC'13 Committee on Homeland Security The first block in building a wall between the possibility of a problem and its occurrence, is complete knowledge of all surrounding aspects of the problem.

With the expected rise of a new democracy in the Middle East after the Arab Spring, it is no longer a grant from the Arab youth to hold a partial responsibility of overcoming the problems facing their nations, but a necessity. A necessity by which the youth have a chance to enhance their capabilities of being tomorrow's leaders.

The spotlights in Egypt have been shed on the issues of money flow in politics, and the Egyptian-Palestinian borders being insecure on several occasions. Homeland Security'13 took the initiative of educating well-chosen, well-spoken, thoughtful delegates on these issues, simulating how they could play a role in solving issues similar to those of Egypt in another established part of the world.

On a separate level, Sino-American Relations have been in tension for a long time now; this rise in tension accompanied with it a huge rise in the Chinese Military, and several Chinese cyber-attacks on the U.S. Government. Homeland'13 has the role of keeping U.S. soil safe from any Chinese aggression, while the Diplomats play their roles in cooling the tension down.

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Topics' Outline: First Topic: Illegal Immigration & Border Security First Sub-Topic: Illegal Immigration  Definition and Origins of Illegal Immigration…………………………………….…….186 o Immigration History in the United States of America o The Process of Becoming an Illegal Immigrant  The Causes of Illegal Immigration…………………………………………………………..188  The Effects of Illegal Immigration……………………………………………………….…..189 o The Positive Effects of Illegal Immigration o The Negative Effects of Illegal Immigration  Visa Security……………………………………………………………………………………………191 o Types of Visa in The United States Nationality Law o Visa Admission Programs and The Visa Waiver Program Second Sub-Topic: Border Security  Introduction and Background of Border Security……………………………………194  Crime Occurrence on Borders…………………………………………………………………195  Border Control Strategy………………………………………………………………………….196 o National Strategic Plan o The 2005 National Border Patrol Strategy o Secure Border Initiative o The 2012 National Border Patrol Strategy  Border Patrol Personnel………………………………………………………….………………200  Infrastructure and Fencing……………………………………………………………….…….201  Operational Control on Borders……………………………………………………………..203  Statistics on Apprehensions, Crimes, and Successful BorderCrossings………………………………………………………………………………………………..204  The Fencing Debate………………………………………………………………………………..207  Open Borders vs. Secure Borders……………………………………………………..…….209  Proposed Bills & Approaches: The Dilemma……………………………………………210

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Second Topic: Lobbying & Disclosure  Introduction to Lobbying……………………………………………………………………………………….211  Lobbying History in USA………………………………………………………………………………….…….212  Registration, Termination, and Disclosure of Lobbyists in The US……………………….…214 o Registration o Termination o Disclosure  Methods and Techniques of Lobbying……………………………………………………………………217  Disclosure in Lobbying…………………………………………………………………………………………..219  The Revolving Door………………………….……………………………………………………………………220  Foreign Lobbying…………………………………………………………………………………………………..221 o The History and Current Status of Foreign Lobbying o The Effects of Foreign Lobbying on US Policy Making o State Sponsors of Terrorism and the Axis of Evil

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Third Topic: China  Introduction to China……………………………………………………………………………….…………..224 (A) Chinas Rising Military:  Chinese Relations with Neighboring Countries………………………………………….………….225 a. Sino-Taiwan relations b. Sino-Japanese relations c. Sino-Philippines Relations d. Sino-North Korean Relations e. Sino-South Korean Relations  Sino-American relations.............................................................................................228  Comparison Between Chinese Military and US Military…………………………………..…….229  China's New Army Agenda…………………………………………………………………………….………230  US Party Stances Towards China……………………………………………………………………..…….231 o The Problem o The Democratic Party Stance o The Republican Party Stance (B) Cyber Security:  Definition of Cyber Security………………………………………………………………………..…………234  Definition of Cyber Attack……………………………………………………………………………….…….234  China's Cyber Terrorism…………………………………………………………………………………………235  The Solution? If any………………………………………………………………………….…………………..236

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1st Topic

I

llegal Immigration & Border Security

First: Illegal Immigration Definition and Origins of Illegal Immigration In 2010, the International Organization for Migration estimated that 25.5 to 32.1 million people (or 10%â&#x20AC;&#x201C;15%) of the world's total 214 million international migrants are unauthorized immigrants, around 12 million of those unauthorized immigrants are present in the United States of America, which illustrates the massive impact that the issue of illegal immigration causes to the US government, and how rapid this widespread issue is in need of a solution.

To put it down simply, Illegal Immigration is migration to a state in violation of the immigration laws and sovereignty of that state, the occurrence of this crime is thoroughly explained thereby. Illegal Immigrants are also referred to as undocumented migrants.

Immigration History in the United States of America Colonial era: 1600-1775 At that time the US wasn't declared as country yet. It was only colonies that were consisted of the people who had emigrated from their countries from present in the continents of Africa, Europe and Asia. Nationals were sent from their countries to become the seed that grows to form a new colony in a land full of resources, in hope of benefiting their home countries.297 On the contrary, these colonies were rather considered as the cornerstones of forming the United States of America as we know it today.

However, the loophole that ruined the clean start of the land of dreams was the fact that many other immigrants arrived to the US against their will, from the Plateau Continent, Africa, to serve the wealthy in different US colonies, with the earliest record of slavery being a group of approximately 20 Africans who were forced to serve in Jamestown, Virginia, in 1619.

297

Mark Reeder, and Gail Matthews ,18th Century Turning Points in United States History, Ambrose Video Publishing New York NY 10036

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By 1680, there were some 7,000 African slaves in the American colonies, a number that ballooned to 700,000 by 1790, according to some estimates. Congress outlawed the importation of slaves to the United States as of 1808, but the practice continued.

The U.S. Civil War (1861-1865) resulted in the emancipation of approximately 4 million slaves.

Although the exact numbers will never be known, it is believed that 500,000 to 650,000 Africans were brought to America and sold into slavery between the 17th and 19th centuries.298 Loading plan of a slave ship hold

1800s and 1900s (Federal Immigration Regulation) During the mid-19th century, a significant number of Asian immigrants settled in the United States, lured by news of the California gold rush, some 25,000 Chinese had migrated there by the early 1850s. This was the main reason of constituting the first significant federal legislation to restrict immigration, which was the 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act.299 The 1882 Act banned Chinese laborers from coming to America. Californians had campaigned for action from the government, by blaming the Chinese (who were willing to work for less) for a decline in wages.

For much of the 1900s, the federal government had left immigration policy to individual states.300 However, by the final decade of the century, the government decided it needed to step in to handle the ever-increasing influx of newcomers. In 1890, President Benjamin Harrison (1833-1901) designated Ellis Island, located in New York Harbor near the Statue of Liberty, as a federal immigration station. More than 12 million immigrants entered the United States through Ellis Island during its years of operation from 1892 to 1954. 301,302 298

United States History, Ambrose Video Publishing New York NY 10036 Molly Millar ,history of immigration, citelighter (accessed January 15, 2013).

299 Morrison G. Wong, Chinese Americans, http://www.corwin.com/upmdata/6035_Chapter_ 6_Min_I_Proof_2.pdf (accessed January 15, 2013).

300 Dialogoaa, United States History, URL http://www.dialogoaa.com.ar/history1.html(accessed January 15, 2013).

301

CNN, and The Washington Post, Ellis Island and Federal Immigration Regulation, URL http://crfimmigrationed.org (accessed January 15, 2013).

302 History, Immigration in the Colonial Era, URL http://www.history.com/topics/united-states-immigration-to1965 (accessed January 15, 2013).

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The Process of Becoming an Illegal Immigrant in the US People can be termed illegal immigrants in one of two ways; (1) entrance to US soil without authorization or inspection, or (2) staying beyond the authorized period after legal entry.

Illegal Entry: Illegal entry often happens through the borders of the US, be it northern or southern borders, and the most common technique of illegal entry occurs by hiring professionals to smuggle the illegal immigrants across the borders of the US for an amount of money. The professional smugglers at the US-Mexican borders are informally known as "Coyotes".

According to the Pew Hispanic Center around 6–7 million unauthorized migrants came to the United States via illegal entry. Also according to Pew there is an estimated half million illegal entries into the United States each year.

Visa overstay: This occurs when an authorized person stays longer than the time limit that was set on his/her staying visa. So, it's a matter of logic to deduce that visa overstays are more educated and of a higher financial level than those who entered the country illegally. According to Pew, between 4 and 5.5 million unauthorized migrants entered the United States with a legal visa, and overstayed its set limit, to become illegal immigrants.

The Causes of Illegal Immigration Economic incentives The economic incentives offered by the United States are the main source of attraction for people around the world to migrate to the United States.

United States employers happen to hire illegal immigrants at wages substantially higher than they could earn in their native countries. These United States employers are pushed to hire illegal migrants for three main reasons:  Global economic change; nowadays the market fosters internationalized production, distribution, consumption, and labor. This has encouraged many countries to open their economies to outside investment, then increasing the number of low-skilled workers participating in global labor markets and making low-skilled labor markets all more competitive. Countries with suffering economies are the perfect pool for such competition.  The jobs needed to be filled in the United States, low skilled workers are barely found between US citizens, a lot of vacancies aren't considered prestigious enough for American citizens to fill. Thus there is a fierce need of the presence of low-skilled, lowpaid workers that are furthermore accepting of filling these vacancies. Simply put, illegal immigrants are willing to do the jobs that American workers will not do.  The third reason revolves around the lack of proper requirements to ensure the eligibility of employment and the lack of mechanisms to supervise whichever requirements available being met accurately.

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Inadequate channels for legal migration The United States immigration system provides only limited channels for legal, permanent economic migration, especially for low-skilled workers. This in a way forces these low-skilled workers, seeking a better economic standard to enter the US soil illegally.

Chain immigration The illegal presence of Mexicans to the US sparks the flow of fellow relative Mexicans to the US, building communities of relatives, to create a "network effect".

The Effects of Illegal Immigration The U.S. Census Bureau showed that the nation's immigrant population (legal and illegal) hit a new record of 40 million in 2010, a 28 percent increase over the total in 2000.303 Out of which, an estimate of 12 million are illegal immigrants, which was confirmed also by the Pew Hispanic Center, and the Centre for Immigration Studies.304 With the current massive number of undocumented migrants, the impact of such presence had to be studied.

Positive Impacts of Illegal Immigration: Socially:  Cultural Diversity; the United States was established on the theoretical principles of accepting diversity, and encouraging different cultures, illegal immigrants, coming from different countries in different continents at different times, have played a role in increasing the amounts of cultures present in the US at the time being.  Employing illegal immigrants is another type of international aid and providing a better life for individuals and families who enter America.

Economically: (Jobs, wages)  Cheap labor and they are filling low-wage jobs.  Companies don’t have to pay taxes on illegal immigrant employees.  Illegal immigrants are creating a huge number of consumers for a variety of goods and services.

303

"Immigrants in the United States: A Profile of America's Foreign-Born Population | Center for Immigration Studies." Center for Immigration Studies | Low-immigration, Pro-immigrant. http://cis.org/node/3877#36 (accessed February 13, 2013).

304 Camarota, Steven A. . "Immigrants in the United States, 2010: A Profile of America's Foreign-Born Population | Center for Immigration Studies." Center for Immigration Studies | Low-immigration, Proimmigrant. http://www.cis.org/2012-profile-of-americas-foreign-born-population (accessed February 13, 2013).

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Taxes and Citizenship privileges:  No Job benefits for illegal immigrants like Medical, life insurances.  Illegal immigrants pay sales taxes.  Wealthy Americans have access to affordable personal services.

Negative Impacts of Illegal Immigration: Socially & Criminally:  Unbalanced ethnic diversity.  Educational costs are rising, due to the overcrowding of public by illegal immigrants, which results in more financial burdens on these schools.  Continuation of law breaking. 305  Crime rate is increasing with illegal immigration. Manhattan Institute researcher Heather MacDonald concludes that “some of the most violent criminals at large today are illegal aliens.” 306  The U.S. deported nearly 393,000 people in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, half of whom were considered criminals. Of those, 27,635 had been arrested for drunken driving.  The Drug traffickers were totaled 45,003. Drug-related crime — described as the manufacture, distribution, possession or sale of drugs — has been the No. 1 crime among immigration for years. 307  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimates that immigrants (legal and illegal) comprise 20 percent of inmates in prisons and jails. The foreign-born are 15.4 percent of the nation’s adult population.  In 2007, Latinos accounted for 40% of all sentenced federal offenders, some estimates, they are 4.2 times more likely to be in prison for murder, and 5.8 times more likely to be in prison for felony drug crimes. 308  In a 2008 study funded by the Justice Department, the Center for Immigration Studies found that 25 to 50 percent of gang members arrested in northern and western Virginia were usually illegal aliens.  According to the Bureau of Prisons, as of July 25, 2009, 26.4 percent of the federal prison population was comprised of inmates who are not U.S. citizens. 309 305

Alexander, Rose. " The Impact Of Illegal Immigration | Lifescript.com." Women's Health Issues | Women's Health Questions & Answers | Women's Health Articles | Lifescript.com. http://www.lifescript.com/soul/self/growth/the_impact_of_illegal_immigration.aspx (accessed February 13, 2013).

306

CORWIN., Ronald G . "Impact of Illegal Immigration on the U.S. Social Structure." Illegal Immigraion, Crime and Urbanization, Realtor Fraud, Mold Wars, Ronald Corwin's Resume'. http://www.socialissues.us/16301.html (accessed February 13, 2013).

307

"Record number deported for drugs, traffic crimes - CBS News." Breaking News Headlines: Business, Entertainment & World News - CBS News. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/07/22/national/main20081863.shtml (accessed February 13, 2013) 308

Camarota, Steven A. , and Jessica Vaughan. "Immigration and Crime: Assessing a Conflicted Issue |

Center for Immigration Studies." Center for Immigration Studies | Low-immigration, Pro-immigrant. http://cis.org/ImmigrantCrime (accessed February 13, 2013).

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Economically: (Jobs, wages)  Menial and entry-level jobs go to illegal immigrants, not legal citizens. And this causes a negative impact on the working and middle-class citizens.  The continuing growth of cheap labor will increase the demand for it, which ultimately means there are fewer jobs for U.S. citizens.

Taxes and Financial Affairs:  Loss of tax revenue can hurt government programs.  Millions of dollars might be sent out of the country by the illegal immigrants to their families or relatives in their mother countries.310

Visa Security: Types of Visa in the United States Nationality Law The types of visa are divided into two very broad purposes of applying for a visa, the immigrant purpose of getting a visa, and the non-immigrant purpose. Within each of these very broad purposes, there are several, more detailed types of visa that are also divided according to the purpose of applying for a visa: 1. Immigrant Visa311:  Immediate Relative and Family Sponsored o Family Immigration: The applicant for the visa must have an immediate relative living in the US to sponsor the applicant's presence in the US. This sponsor must have enough income or assets to support the applicant. o Marriage to a Foreign National:  Spouse or Fiancé(e) of U.S. Citizen  Spouse of Lawful Permanent Resident in U.S. o Adopting a Child 

309

Employment-Based o Priority Workers. o Professionals Holding Advanced Degrees and Persons of Exceptional Ability. o Skilled Workers, Professionals and Unskilled Workers. o Investor Visas: To qualify for this visa an applicant must have invested at least 1million US Dollars or 500,000 US Dollars in an employment area.

Garibaldi, Mario . "Illegal Immigration: Pros & Cons | Mario Garibaldi." Mario Garibaldi's latest writings.

http://mario-garibaldi.wrytestuff.com/swa61485.htm (accessed February 13, 2013).

310

Alexander, Rose. "The Impact of Illegal Immigration | Lifescript.com." Lifescript.com. http://www.lifescript.com/soul/self/growth/the_impact_of_illegal_immigration.aspx (accessed February 13, 2013).

311 Travel.State.Gov," Visa Types for Immigrants" http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1326.html (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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ď&#x201A;ˇ

Special Immigrants o Employment: Iraqi or Afghan Translators/Interpreters o Employment: Iraqis - Worked for/on behalf of U.S. Government o Employment: Afghans - Worked for/on behalf of U.S. Government

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Diversity Visa Program: The diversity Visa program targets the countries with low immigration rates. It allows up to 55,000 diversity visas annually, randomly selected from all the entries from such countries.

2. Non-immigrant Visa312: Those are visas issued for visits of a temporary purposed nature.

Some of them are: o Visitors Visa. o Business Visa: for people intending to enter the US for temporary business appointments. o Pleasure, Tourism or Medical Treatment Visa. o Exchange Visitor Visa: This kind of Visa is for studying, training and teaching in the US. o Border Crossing Card: This type is essentially a business or tourism visa issued for the citizens and residents of Mexico. o Visa for members of the foreign media, press and radio. o Temporary religious workers Visa. o Visa for Victims of criminal activity: This type is for Victims of certain criminal activities who suffered great mental or physical abuse and have information about that activity. o Victims of Human Trafficking.

Visa Waiver Program: The program enables the citizens of 37 countries to enter the US for tourism or business for 90 days without visa. The congress passed legislation in 1986 to create a waiver program to facilitate the travel to the US to energize the tourism industry and simplify short business trips.

For a country to be eligible for the program it must meet the following requirements: 1. The presence of a secure process of producing identification documents and passports.

2. The presence of a stable economic and political system.

3. Immigration control over the country's borders.

4. Total cooperation with the US in law enforcement issues.

5. Visa-free 90 days travel for US citizens for Business or Tourism.

312

Travel.State.Gov," Types of Visa for Temporary visitors" http://travel.state.gov/visa/temp/types/types_1286.html (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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6. Governments issue secure machine-readable passports that satisfy internationally accepted standards.

7. Governments certify that they have a program to incorporate biometric identifiers into their passports in accordance with International Civil Aviation Organization standard.313

313

Travel.State.Gov," Visa Waiver Program How a Country Qualifies" http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/temp/without/without_1255.html (accessed January 15, 2013).

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Second: Border Security Introduction and Background to the US borders Illegal aliens enter America from many nations around the world. About 6-7 million of the 12 million illegal immigrants currently present in the United States have entered the US soil illegally through any of its 330 ports of entry. This huge number of border crossings is an indicator of inadequacy of security on the US borders.

United States is located in the middle of North America, its northern border is shared with Canada, while its southern border is shared with Mexico, the eastern border is covered by the Atlantic Ocean, and the western border is covered by the Pacific Ocean. 314

The Northern Border The United States of America is touching ground with Canada in the 10 states located at the north of the US, namely: Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, New York, and Vermont.

The Canadian border which is also called "The International Boundary" is about 5,525 miles (8,891 kilometers) which makes it the longest international border in the world shared between the same pair of countries.

The US-Canadian border is commonly referred to as "The World's Longest Undefended Border", because the number of border patrols present to protect the border is only of 2,237 border patrols, which is considered very minimal when compared to the 18,506 border patrols protecting the US-Mexican border. However, this is true only in the military sense, as civilian law enforcement is present in considerably normal amounts.315

The Southern Border

US Northern and Southern Borders Highlighted in Red 314

End Illegal Immigration,Our Mission ,AMERICANS FOR LEGAL IMMIGRATION PAC, (accessed January 15,

2013).

315

Marc R. Rosenblum, and Kate Brick, US Immigration Policy And Mexican/ Central American Migration Flows,Woodrow Wilson International Center For Scholars, August 2011 (accessed January 15, 2013).

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The US-Mexican border has the length of 1,969 miles (3,169 kilometers) in which the four southern border states of the US, namely: California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, share borders with Mexico.

The US-Mexican border has the record of the most frequently crossed international border of the world, with approximately three hundred fifty million crossings per year, and over five million cars and trucks travelling through the border annually. The Government Accountability Office has mentioned that there is an estimate of half a million illegal entries into the United States each year. Furthermore, according to Vulliamy, one in five Mexican nationals will visit or work in the United States at one point in their lifetime!

The border is now guarded by 18,506 border patrol agents, more than any time in its history. However these agents only have "effective control" of less than 700 miles of the 1,969 miles border, with an ability to actually prevent or stop illegal entries along 129 miles of the border. The border is paralleled by United States Border Patrol Interior Checkpoints at major roads generally between 25 and 75 miles to the U.S. side of the border, and garitas (Mexican immigration checkpoints) generally within 50 km of the border on the Mexican side.316

Border Fences between US and Mexico in Texas

Crime Occurrence on borders Human trafficking Human trafficking is the illegal trade of human beings (mostly women and children) mainly for the purposes of commercial sexual exploitation or forced labor. Other purposes can be extraction of organs, or tissues. John Miller, the State Department's director of the Office to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons, said that there are about 17,000 people being trafficked yearly from Mexico into the United States!

On the other hand, there have been reports of a recent crack to a human trafficking ring, smuggling dozens of illegal immigrants from Canada to the US, through the US-Canadian 317 borders.

316

Marc R. Rosenblum, and Kate Brick, US Immigration Policy And Mexican/ Central American Migration Flows,Woodrow Wilson International Center For Scholars, August 2011 (accessed January 15, 2013).

317 Jennifer E. Lake,Jennifer E. Lake , Celinda Franco , and William J. Krouse , Southwest Border Violence: Issues in Identifying and Measuring Spillover Violence, August 24, 2010 (accessed January 15, 2013).

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Drug smuggling There has been an increase in the level of drug trafficking related violence. Drug trafficking organizations in Mexico estimates have shown that the number of drug trafficking related deaths in Mexico between December 2006 and December 2010 are over 34,500. Some have estimated the death toll for 2010 alone to be over 11,600, with over 3000 murders across the border from El Paso, TX. This violence has generated concern among U.S. policy makers that the violence in Mexico might spill over into the United States.

While up on the northern border, Canadian officials have complained of drug and firearms smuggling from the United States while U.S. officials have complained of drug smuggling from Canada. In July 2005, law enforcement personnel arrested three men who had built a 360-foot (110 m) tunnel under the border between British Columbia, Canada and Washington, USA that they intended to use for smuggling marijuana, the first such tunnel known on this border!318

Document Fraud Document fraud has recently been a key to the ports of "legal" entry to the US, the industry of forging documents became very popular in border cities because of the increasing numbers of the people who want to enter the US by any means possible. Documents such as having a spouse/fiancée in the US to go to are forged, documents of having illness that needs healthcare from the US, having a small investment or business, and many different types of documents can be forged in order for migrants to enter the US without having to be smuggled in.

Border Control Strategy The Border Patrol developed its first formal national border control strategy in 1994, the National Strategic Plan. The plan was updated in 2005 after the Border Patrol was directed to formulate a new national strategy following the 9/11 attacks, resulting in the 2005 National Border Patrol Strategy. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also developed a broader Secure Border Initiative in 2005 to coordinate its overall approach to border security and immigration control. In 2012, the new Border Patrol National Strategy has been introduced to build upon the 2005 National Border Patrol Strategy.

All four of the existing national plans were organized around an operational strategy of “prevention through deterrence.” Whereas the Border Patrol’s traditional approach to controlling illegal migration had been to arrest aliens after they entered the United States, the prevention through deterrence approach was to place personnel, surveillance technology, fencing, and other infrastructure directly on the border to deter illegal flows. 319

318

David Maung,Mexican Drug Trafficking (Mexico's Drug War),The New York Times ,Oct. 9, 2012 (accessed

January 15, 2013).

319

U.S. Border Patrol, Border Patrol Strategic Plan: 1994 and Beyond, July 1994, p. 6. (Hereinafter, National Strategic (accessed January 15, 2013).

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National Strategic Plan: The National Strategic Plan included four phases to deploy and focus US Border Patrol resources on the areas of greatest illegal entry of people and goods. Phase I of the plan involved the “Hold the Line” program in Texas and Operation Gatekeeper in California. 320 Phase II included the expansion of Operation Rio Grande in Texas and Operation Safeguard in Arizona; and Phases III and IV involved the remaining areas of the Southwest border followed by the Gulf Coast and northern borders. 321 Along the Southwest border, the plan emphasized personnel, equipment, technology, and tactical infrastructure. In addition to placing more agents directly on the border, these operations utilized fencing, stadium lighting, and cameras and sensors to detect unauthorized aliens. The northern border emphasized intelligence, technology, equipment, and limited personnel.322 Many people viewed Operations "Gatekeeper" and "Hold the Line" as successful.

Apprehensions within these sectors fell sharply beginning in 1994-1995. “Prevention through deterrence” was embraced by Congress, with both House and Senate approving and adopting the plan.323

The 2005 National Border Patrol Strategy: In the wake of the 9/11 attacks, the US Border Patrol refocused its priorities on preventing terrorist penetration, while remaining committed to its traditional duties of preventing the illicit trafficking of people through ports of entry. Shortly after the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, US Border Patrol was directed to formulate a new National Border Patrol Strategy that would better reflect the realities of the post-9/11 security landscape.

In March 2005, the Border Patrol unveiled the National Border Patrol Strategy, which places greater emphasis on interdicting terrorists and features five main objectives:     

Being prepared for the probability of apprehending terrorists and their weapons as they attempt to enter illegally between the ports of entry; Deterring illegal entries through improved enforcement; Detecting, apprehending, and deterring smugglers of humans, drugs; Leveraging “Smart Border” technology to multiply the deterrent and enforcement effect of agents; Reducing crime in border communities, thereby improving the quality of life and economic vitality of those areas. 324

320

National Strategic Plan, pp. 9-10 (accessed February 1st, 2013).

National Strategic Plan, pp. 10-12 (accessed February 1st, 2013).

322 U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Performance and Annual Report: Fiscal Year 2003. (accessed February 321

1st, 2013).

323

U.S. General Accounting Office, Illegal Immigration: Southwest Border Strategy Results Inconclusive; More Evaluation Needed, GAO/GGD-98-21, December 1997(accessed February 1st, 2013).

324 Department of Homeland Security, Bureau of Customs and Border Protection, “National Border Patrol Strategy,” March 1, 2005. Hereafter referred to as USBP National Strategy. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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The National Border Patrol Strategy was an attempt to lay the foundation for achieving operational control over the border, defined by the Border Patrol as “the ability to detect, respond, and interdict border penetrations in areas deemed as high priority for threat potential or other national security objectives.” 325 The 2005 document builds on the “prevention through deterrence” strategy, but it places added emphasis on the rapid deployment of USBP agents to respond to emerging threats. This approach depends on tactical, operational, and strategic intelligence to assess risk and target enforcement efforts, relying in large part on sophisticated surveillance systems, including cameras, sensors, and other technologies.

Secure Border Initiative: In November 2005, the Department of Homeland Security announced a comprehensive multiyear plan, the Secure Border Initiative, to secure U.S. borders and reduce illegal migration, repeating many of the themes from the 1994 National Strategic Plan and the 2005 National Border Patrol Strategy.

Under the Secure Border Initiative, the Department of Homeland Security announced plans to obtain operational control of the northern and southern borders within five years by focusing attention in four main areas: 

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Increased staffing: As part of the Secure Border Initiative, the Department of Homeland Security announced the addition of 1,000 new Border Patrol agents, 250 new investigators targeting human smuggling operations, and 500 other new agents and officers.

Improved detention and removal capacity: In October 2005, the Department of Homeland Security announced plans to detain 100% of non-Mexicans apprehended at the border until they could be processed for removal. The Secure Border Initiative supported this goal by adding detention capacity, initially increasing bed space by 2,000 to a total of 20,000.

Surveillance technology: The Secure Border Initiative included plans to expand the Department of Homeland Security's use of surveillance technology between ports of entry, including unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems, other aerial assets, remote video surveillance (RVS) systems, and ground sensors.

Tactical infrastructure: The Secure Border Initiative continued the Department of Homeland Security's commitment to the expansion of border fencing, roads, and stadium-style lighting; the Department of Homeland Security announced plans to complete triple-layer fencing along the original 14-mile stretch of border in San Diego where construction had begun in 1990. 326

The Department of Homeland Security noted that these programs would initially focus on the Southern border between official ports of entry and that it would deploy a mix of 325

USBP National Strategy, p. 3. This definition differs from the statutory definition found in Section 2 of the Secure Fence Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-367); see “Operational Control of the Border,” (accessed February 1st, 2013).

326 DHS, “Fact Sheet: Secure Border Initiative,” http://www.dhs.gov/xnews/releases/press_release_0794.shtm. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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personnel, technology, infrastructure, and response assets in order to “provide maximum tactical advantage in each unique border environment.” 327

The 2012 National Border Patrol Strategy 328: The Strategic Plan uses a risk-based approach to securing the border; focusing enhanced capabilities against the highest threats and rapidly responding along the border. It involves a set of objectives, strategies, and programs that use Information, Integration and Rapid Response to develop and deploy new and better tactics, techniques, and procedures to achieve the Border Patrol’s strategic objectives. It means being more effective and efficient by using tools and methods like change detection techniques to mitigate risks. The Strategic Plan has two interrelated and interdependent goals: Goal 1: Secure America’s Borders The U.S. Border Patrol plays a critical role in securing US borders between Ports of Entry (POEs) against all threats. The approach to this mission is from a risk-based orientation, allowing the Border Patrol to apply Information, Integration and Rapid Response in the most targeted, effective, and efficient manner.  



Information provides situational awareness and intelligence developed by technology to understand the threats faced along the Nation’s borders.

Integration denotes Customs and Border Protection (CBP) corporate planning and execution of border-security operations while leveraging partnerships with other Federal, state, local, tribal, and international organizations.

Rapid Response means the Border Patrol and its partners can respond quickly and appropriately to changing threats.

The measurable objectives of this goal are to: 

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327

Prevent terrorists and terrorist weapons from entering the United States between the POEs through improved and focused intelligence-driven operations, as well as operational integration, planning, and execution with law enforcement partners; Manage risk through the introduction and expansion of sophisticated tactics, techniques, and procedures. These include methods of detecting illegal entries such as using “change detection” techniques, increased mobile-response capabilities, and expanded use of specially trained personnel with “force multiplying” skills and abilities; Disrupt and degrade Transnational Criminal Organizations by targeting enforcement efforts against the highest priority threats and expanding programs that reduce smuggling and crimes associated with smuggling; Expand CBP’s situational awareness at and between the POEs and employ a comprehensive and integrated “whole-of-government” approach; and

Department of Homeland Security, DHS FY2008 Congressional Budget Justification, p. CBP-BSFIT 3. (accessed

February 1st, 2013).

328

2012-2016 Border Patrol Strategic Plan, http://nemo.cbp.gov/obp/bp_strategic_plan.pdf (accessed February

1st, 2013).

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

Increase community engagement by participating in community programs and engaging the public to assist the U.S. Border Patrol.

Goal 2: Strengthen the Border Patrol To succeed in its border-security mission, the Border Patrol must continue to evolve and improve as an organization using Information, Integration and Rapid Response. The Border Patrol will grow and mature its institutional capabilities by:  Strengthening its investment in its people and capabilities through improved education, training, and support of Border Patrol personnel;  Reinforcing employee-support initiatives and programs that continue the tradition of the U.S. Border Patrol;  Addressing threats to organizational integrity and remaining vigilant in training and promoting initiatives to combat corruption;  Improving organizational processes, systems, and doctrine by standardizing reporting and planning processes;  Introducing improved tools to collect and analyze data to develop measures for the improvement of organizational outcomes; and  Enhancing overall efficiency by improving planning, resource allocation, and acquisition processes.

Border Patrol Personnel Congress has passed at least four laws since 1986 authorizing increased Border Patrol personnel.329 US Border Patrol staffing has more than doubled over the past decade and increased more than nine fold since 1998. As of September 30, 2011, the US Border Patrol had 21,444 agents, including 18,506 posted at the Southwest border and 2,237 posted at the northern border. These numbers are up from a total of 2,268 Border Patrol agents in 1980 and 10,045 in 2002. The following figure shows the number of border patrol agents from the year 1980-2011, illustrating the numbers of border patrols on the Northern border, on the Southern border, and the total number. 330 In addition to Border Patrol personnel, the National Guard is authorized to support federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies (LEAs) at the border. National Guard troops were first deployed to the border on a pilot basis in 1988, when about 100 soldiers assisted the U.S. Customs Service at several South border locations, and National Guard and active military 329

The Immigration Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-649) authorized an increase of 1,000 Border Patrol agents; the IIRIRA (P.L. 104-208, Div. C) authorized an increase of a total of 5,000 Border Patrol agents in FY1997-FY2001; the Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act (USA PATRIOT, P.L. 107-56) authorized DHS to triple the number of Border Patrol agents at the northern border; and the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (P.L. 108-458) authorized an increase of 10,000 Border Patrol agents between FY2006 and FY2010. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

330 USBP, “Border Patrol Agent Staffing by Fiscal Year,” http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/border_security/border_patrol/usbp_statistics/staffing_92_10.ctt/staffing_ 92_10.pdf. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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units provided targeted support for the US Border Patrol’s surveillance programs throughout the following decade.

Source: 1980-1991: CRS presentation of data from Syracuse University Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse; 1992-2011: CRS presentation of data provided by USBP Congressional Affairs The first large-scale deployment of the National Guard to the border occurred in 20062008, when over 30,000 troops provided engineering, aviation, identification, technical, logistical, and administrative support to CBP as part of “Operation Jump Start.”331 President Obama announced an additional deployment of up to 1,200 National Guard troops to the Southwest border on May 25, 2010, with the National Guard supporting the Border Patrol, by providing intelligence work and drug and human trafficking interdiction. The 2010 deployment was originally scheduled to end in June 2011, but the full deployment was extended twice (in June and September 2011) before the Administration announced in December 2011 that the deployment would be reduced to fewer than 300 troops beginning in January 2012. 332

Infrastructure and Fencing The second key element of Department of Homeland Security’s border enforcement strategy is tactical infrastructure, including roads, lighting, pedestrian fencing, and vehicle barriers. Tactical infrastructure is intended to guide cross-border activity, disrupt and restrict

331

CRS Report R41286, Securing America’s Borders: The Role of the Military, by R. Chuck Mason. (accessed

February 1st, 2013).

332

Associated Press, “National Guard Troops at Mexico Border Cut to Fewer Than 300,” USA Today, December 20, 2011. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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smuggling operations, and establish a substantial probability of apprehending terrorists seeking entry into the United States.333 The first fencing along the U.S.-Mexican border began in 1990, eventually covering the 14 miles of the border east of the Pacific Ocean near San Diego. Congress expressly authorized the construction and improvement of fencing and other barriers under the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, which required the completion of a triplelayered fence along the original 14 miles near San Diego. The Secure Fence Act of 2006 added the requirement of double-layered fencing along five segments of the Southwest border, totaling about 850 miles. 334 The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2008 required that the Secretary of Homeland Security had to construct reinforced fencing “along not less than 700 miles of the southwest border where fencing would be most practical and effective and provide for the installation of additional physical barriers, roads, lighting, cameras, and sensors to gain operational control of the southwest border.” 335 The act further specifies, however, that the Secretary of Homeland Security is not required to install fencing, physical barriers, roads, lighting, cameras, and sensors in a particular location along an international border of the United States, if the Secretary determines that the use or placement of such resources is not the most appropriate means to achieve and maintain operational control over the international border at such location.

As of October 6, 2011, Department of Homeland Security had installed 351 miles of pedestrian fencing and 299 miles of vehicle fencing (total of 650 miles) out of 651 miles DHS had identified as appropriate for fencing and barriers in order to achieve and maintain operational control of the border.336 The following figure summarizes annual appropriations for tactical infrastructure (including surveillance technology) from the year 1996-2012.

333

Customs and Border Protection, “Tactical Infrastructure: History and Purpose,” http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/border_security/ti/about_ti/ti_history.xml (accessed February 1st, 2013).

334 P.L. 109-367 identified five specific stretches of the border where fencing was to be installed; CBP Congressional Affairs provided CRS with this estimate of the total mileage covered by the law on September 25, 2006. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

335

P.L. 110-161, Div. E, § 564. See P.L. 104-208, Div. C, § 102(b), as amended by P.L. 109-367, § 3. Also see CRS Report RL33659, Border Security: Barriers Along the U.S. International Border, by Chad C. Haddal and Michael John Garcia. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

336 CBP Office of Congressional Affairs communication with CRS, October 6, 2011. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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Appropriations increased from $25 million in the year 1996 to $298 million in 2006, an elevenfold increase, and then jumped to $1.5 billion in the year 2007 as Department of Homeland Security created a new Border Security Fencing, Infrastructure, and Technology account and appropriated money to pay for the border fencing mandate in the Secure Fence Act of 2006.

Border Security Fencing, Infrastructure, and Technology appropriations remained at over $1 billion in the year 2008 before falling to $573 million in the year 2011 and $400 million in the year 2012.

Operational Control on Borders The Secure Fence Act of 2006 obligates the Secretary of Homeland Security to “take all actions the Secretary determines necessary and appropriate to achieve and maintain operational control over the entire international land and maritime border of the United States.” The act defines operational control to mean “the prevention of all unlawful entries into the United States, including entries by terrorists, other unlawful migrants, and instruments of terrorism, narcotics, and other contraband.” The section also obliges the Secretary to submit annual reports to Congress on the progress made toward achieving operational control.

Most experts agree that preventing 100% of unlawful entries across any border is an impossible task—particularly a border as large and open as that of the United States. 337 Through the year 2010, the Border Patrol classified portions of the border as being under “effective” or “operational” control if the agency “has the ability to detect, respond, and interdict illegal activity at the border or after entry into the United States.” 338 337

Edward Alden and Bryan Roberts, “Are US Borders Secure? Why We Don't Know, and How to Find Out,” Foreign Affairs, vol. 90, no. 4 (July/August 2011), pp. 19-26. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

338 U.S. Government Accountability Office, Border Security: Preliminary Observations on Border Control Measuers for the Southwest Border, GAO-11-374T, February 15, 2011, p. 7(accessed February 1st, 2013).

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The following table summarizes the number of south border miles under effective control from the year 2005-2010.

Miles of the South Border under “Effective Control” Fiscal Year Miles Percent of Border 2005 288 15 2006 449 23 2007 599 31 2008 757 39 2009 939 48 2010 1,107 57 Source: DHS Annual Financial Report, FY2009; U.S. Congress, House Committee on Homeland Security, February 15, 2010.

As of the year 2011, the US Border Patrol no longer uses this measure of effective control. Department of Homeland Security reportedly has begun to develop a more sophisticated quantitative indicator of border security, and according to officials, effective control will be replaced by a “border condition index,” which will combine multiple dimensions of border security, public safety, and quality of life into a holistic “score” that can be calculated for different regions of the border. 339

Statistics on Apprehensions, Crimes, and Successful Border-Crossings The following figure shows the number of apprehensions that have occurred on borders from 1991-2011. It suggests that the trend of apprehensions generally increased between 1993 and 2000, however, starting the year 2000 the trend fell steeply until the year 2011, (except for the years between 2004 and 2006), to reach its lowest level in 2011.

339

U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Securing the Border: Progress at the Federal Level, testimony of Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, 112th Cong., 1st sess., May 4, 2011. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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Figure: US Border Patrol Apprehensions

While apprehensions data are useful indicators of illegal inflow trends, they are problematic indicators of the effectiveness of U.S. enforcement for at least three reasons: First, apprehensions data exclude three important groups:  Successful unauthorized immigrants: including people who enter without inspection, people who use fraudulent documents to enter through a port of entry, and people who enter legally and overstay their visas.  Certain unsuccessful unauthorized immigrants: including people who are denied entry

by Border Patrol officers at ports of entry; people who are apprehended by local, state, or federal law enforcement officials other than US Border Patrol; and aliens who die while crossing the border.  Would-be unauthorized immigrants: who are deterred by border enforcement and do not migrate, including people who remain in their communities of origin, or cases of “remote deterrence”, and people who attempt to enter the United States but are dissuaded at the border.

These excluded groups mean that apprehensions data are an incomplete picture both of unauthorized migration and of migration enforcement.

Second, apprehensions data count events rather than people. Thus, an unauthorized migrant who is caught trying to enter the country three times in one year counts as three apprehensions in the data set; the data therefore may overestimate the actual number of people trying to cross the border.

Finally, individual and aggregate migration decisions are highly complex, reflecting not only the risk of apprehension and the costs of migration, but also—at least as importantly—a

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range of socio-economic “push” and “pull” factors at both ends of the migration chain, as well as social and family networks that facilitate migration. 340 Thus, it is difficult to interpret the meaning of a change in the trend of apprehensions: do fewer apprehensions imply fewer illegal entry attempts, or a lower apprehension rate for the same number of entries?

The following table shows seizure statistics of illegal substances across borders in 2011:

340

Douglas S. Massey, Joaquin Arango, and Graeme Hugo, et al., Worlds In Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millenium, 2nd ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005 (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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The Fencing Debate Pro

Con The Moral Aspect

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Building a fence on the borders is justified, in order to save the sovereignty of a country over its border-neighboring lands. Also it is not to be compared to the Berlin Wall as it is not trapping people inside an area.

The 700 mile fence will help guide, route, or channel, illegal immigrants to areas patrolled by Border Patrol agents, it is true that the fence will not cover the complete border, but it will facilitate deterring illegal immigrants.

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Building a fence is considered a fascist maneuver by governments, such as a Berlin Wall. It will not stop the attempts to cross borders; it will only make it lethal.

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Practically speaking, instead of passing through a 700 mile fence, migrants would go around the fence and also try to enter the US soil.

The Efficiency Aspect  While the citation of the San Diego

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fence is true, it does not necessarily provide a good historical example against the new wall. The fact that these walls and security efforts caused illegal immigrants to cross elsewhere at much greater risk to themselves (around 400 die annually crossing) seems to be a sign that these measures had a substantial deterrent impact. By extension, it may be reasonable to believe that the 700-mile wall and its accompanying border security measures will have a similar deterrent effect along the portions of the border it will cover.

Illegal Immigration is unfair to the legal immigrants, as they took the difficult legal route to gain the same advantages others gain illegally!

The DEA warns in an intelligence report that Asian narcotics traffickers, in collusion with Mexican



After the construction of the San Diego fence, many illegal immigrants began crossing through the Arizona desert, which caused many of San Diego's border agents to move out there. According to T.J. Bonner, the president of the National Border Patrol Council, the main union for Border Patrol agents, "Tucson now has 2,600 agents. San Diego has lost 1,000 agents. Guess where the traffic is going? Back to San Diego.

San Diego is the most heavily fortified border in the entire country, and yet it's not stopping people from coming across."



Illegal immigrants are frequently being stuffed into cars and boats to make illegal crossing over legitimate road-crossings. The techniques for doing so are highly resourceful, including the hallowing out of dashboards to fit a person.

Border fences do not decrease smuggling as it typically occurs in vehicles and often over legitimate



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drug cartels and terrorist groups, could use the "Gateway to the Pacific" (a plan to expand border trade) to bring contraband into the United States. 'Contraband can be anything from narcotics, pirated videos, humans or weapons of mass destruction.' The amount of destruction approved by such reports cannot stay on hold because a legitimate fence on borders "symbolizes" the Berlin wall!

passageways. A border barrier won't impact this.

Financial Aspect 



The 700 mile fence is not relatively expensive. The roughly $2 billion price tag of the fence is not particularly high. Given that that much money is spent in Iraq in a single week, it seems like a very small price to pay to solve a major domestic crisis.

A 700-mile fence will reduce longterm border security costs: A border fence will reduce the costs of paroling the border by billions of dollars over time.

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The 700 mile fence would be costly and would run over budget; US education and health care are more important than building a border fence.

The maintenance of the US border fence would be costly as there are a number of maintenance issues that would add substantial costs to the fence. Damage from Arizona flash floods, for example, will damage the fence and add significantly to maintenance costs.

A border fence would not be as effective as other measures; more patrol agents and more surveillance are the most important things.

Resources should be spent on these factors, not on a building a border fence.

The Foreign Relations Aspect 

Building a fence is a sovereign right that should be accepted by other countries. "Good fences make good neighbors" This is a quote from Robert Frost's, "Mending Wall". And has been used to argue that a fence would be good for US-Mexico relations. The cooperation of the Mexican government with the US government in the fencing issue will enhance their relations and hopefully end all sorts of illegal immigration and lead to successful



A border fence would be harmful to US-Latin American Diplomacy, and not only the US-Mexican Diplomacy, as the treatment the US government gives to Mexico will be an indicator to how the US government will deal with all the Latin countries.

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border control by both countries.

The Mexican Army has entered the US over 200 times without authorization. Foreign policy could only be helped if these were to stop.

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The contradictions between the approaches of the US towards the Northern Border and the Southern Border will increase the tension between USA and its neighbor Mexico.

Open Borders vs. Secure Borders Open border means a border where people are allowed to cross freely from a country to another with no security measures, for instance the countries of the European Union. Whereas, a secure border is one that has a lot of restrictions on the entrance and exit of the people crossing the border, for instance the US-Mexican border.

The issue of whether US-Mexican and US-Canadian borders should be open borders or secured ones raised a great debate amongst US politicians:

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Secured Borders Polls and Studies have shown that: 78% of voters oppose the legalization of the status of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the US. 80% of US voters oppose proposals for government-backed health-care plans for illegal immigrants.

74% of Americans think the government is not doing enough to keep illegal immigrants from coming into the country.

These polls are clear indicators that US citizens wish to tighten the security on borders to stop illegal immigration, thus a policy of open border is an unacceptable policy for the voters.

The government must provide welfare to the new immigrants which could deprave the Americans from the welfare they need, also the new cheap labor could lead to the unemployment of the Americans.

Open Borders As illustrated before, an economic point of view suggests that business owners tend to need the Immigrants for plentiful, cheap labor.

The capitalist nature of the current market requires the presence of lowskilled, low-waged labor, for jobs Americans refuse to do, which means that more immigrants should come to the US to help support the US market.

This means that businessmen and the US capital will not accept a fully secured border.

Closing borders with too much security contradicts the values that created the United State of America, which are simply accepting variety and opening the land of opportunities to people who seek chances for a better life, this has been the basis of the United 209

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States since its beginning and keeping borders open ensures the values of the founding fathers of the US remain as they are.

Proposed Bills & Approaches: The Dilemma The current situation as clearly explained before is that the US-Mexican border has too much security, while the numbers of illegal immigrants is not decreasing, crimes are occurring through the southern border, the crime rate within the US itself caused by illegal immigrants is increasing, and the contradiction happening by the US government when dealing with Mexican and Canadian borders is causing a lot of tension to the US-Mexican relations.

While on the other side, the US-Canadian border almost has no security at all, crimes are starting to happen through this unsecured border, also illegal immigration is easier to occur through this border than its counterpart which is starting to become a reason for more smuggling through the US-Canadian borders; however the US-Canadian relations are at their best regarding cooperation on the borders, when present.

The Border Security Enforcement Act of 2011 was the one of the most controversial approaches to deal with the issue of the southern border, it consisted of the following:  Directs the Secretary of Defense to deploy at least 6,000 National Guard personnel to perform operations in the Southwest Border region to assist U.S. Customs and Border Protection in securing such border.  It also directs the Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS) to increase, by September 30, 2016, the number of Border Patrol agents stationed in the Region by 5,000.  Directs the Secretary to: (1) Construct, as needed, additional Border Patrol stations in the Region to provide operational support in rural, high-trafficked areas; (2) Upgrade existing Border Patrol forward operating bases and establish new bases as needed; and (3) Complete the construction of a permanent checkpoint near Tubac, Arizona, and deploy additional temporary roving checkpoints in the Region.  Finally, it amends the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 to direct the Secretary to: (1)Complete the required 700 mile southwest border fencing by December 31, 2011; and (2)Construct double and triple layer fencing at appropriate locations in the Region.

The fact that this bill died gives a very clear indicator of where the fencing idea stands in the eyes of the people of the U.S.

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2nd Topic

L

obbying & Disclosure

Introduction to Lobbying Lobbying can be defined as the act of attempting to influence decisions made by officials in the government, or more commonly, legislators. The act of lobbying can be done by individuals, or organized groups, coming from a wide array of options, such as individuals working in the private sector, corporations, fellow legislators, government officials, or advocacy groups (interest groups).

Lobbyists however, are not random people performing the act of lobbying, they actually are people who have a business of trying to influence legislation on behalf of a group or individual who hires them.

What makes lobbying a very controversial issue is how the society in the US views this business of lobbying, to make it clear, lobbyists are viewed as presentable agents that are paid to "Twist and Crook" the views of policymakers in the US government or US Congress, and ensure that US policies are serving their employers interests! This view of corrupting paid advocates could easily make the majority of the US society not so accepting towards lobbyists and the profession of lobbying. But the other side of the story is that lobbying is the profession that makes sure that a group's interests are duly defended against another group's corruption, or even simply making sure that minority interests are fairly defended against mere tyranny of the majority. If the profession is viewed in this second manner, then of course lobbying is a noble profession applying balance to the US government and US congress.

In fact, lobbyists are the most responsible people when it comes to giving the society a certain

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image of the profession of lobbying. When clever, lobbyists can argue that their profession and the values they lobby for are of a pure, and good nature.

They can also argue that lobbying is just like any other profession, relatively containing the good and the bad, and that some lobbyists are beneficial lobbyists because of their noble values and goals, and on the contrary, some other lobbyists are the exact opposite. Lobbyists are responsible for manipulating any objective assessment of the profession of lobbying, by simply setting the basic rule of "Don't blame the game, blame the players."

Lobbying History in the US: The act of lobbying has been recorded to have started in ancient Greece and in ancient Rome, with the core difference of it having a nature of basic negotiations between the politicians in the Roman Senate.341 The US did then to lobbying what it did to every other profession at that time, edit it. In the US that act of mere lobbying was adjusted and broadened. The most accurate estimate of the beginning of lobbying in the US was recorded in 1792 when William Hull was hired by the Virginia veterans of the Continental Army to lobby for additional compensation. This newly witnessed act continued progressing, going through one of the strangest lobbying attempts, when in 1850 a gun maker named Samuel Colt, seeking to extend his patents, hired lobbyists and had them pass out pistols as gifts to lawmakers and even worse, to one member's 12-year-old son.342

William Hull

The Federal Regulation of Lobbying Act The Federal Regulation of Lobbying Act in 1946, this was the first formal recognition to the profession of lobbying. The Act stipulated the rules and procedures that lobbyists shall abide to when performing their profession. It induced, upon any person or organization that receives money in return of attempts to influence legislation, the obligation of registering at the Clerk of the House as well as the Secretary of the Senate. The Act also obliged any group or person that registers to disclose their employer, salary, duration of employment and purpose of expenditure. The Act finally showed seriousness by setting a penalty of a fine up to $10,000 and imprisonment up to 5 years if the previous provisions were not met.

The Lobbying Disclosure Act (LDA) However in 1995 The Lobbying Disclosure Act was signed by President Bill Clinton, to repeal The Federal Regulation of Lobbying Act of 1946. The act provided specific thresholds and clear definitions of lobbying activities, lobbying contacts, and who is a lobbyist. When compared to the 1946 act, a lobbyist was then anyone who spends 20 percent of his time lobbying. The act not only required that 341

Lionel Zetter ,"Lobbying:The Art of Political Persuasion" HARRIMAN HOUSE LTD 2008(accessed January 15,

2013).

342

Elizabeth Dwoskin, "A Brief History of Lobbying", Businessweek June 07, 2012(accessed January 15, 2013).

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lobbyists attempting to influence Congress register with the Clerk of the House and the Secretary of the Senate, but that they file semi-annual reports on the nature of their lobbying contacts.

The Honest Leadership and Open Government Act (HLOGA) The Lobbying Disclosure Act was amended substantially by the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007. The act refined thresholds and definitions of lobbying activities, it changed the frequency of reporting for registered lobbyists and lobbying firms, it added additional disclosures, it created new semi-annual reports on contributions, and it added disclosure requirements for coalitions and associations.

At the registration process, the Clerk and the Secretary were for the first time required to make registration and disclosure forms available, in a searchable and sortable format, on the Internet, for public inspection.

Under the Lobbying Disclosure Act, lobbyists and lobbying firms were required to submit forms disclosing activities on a semi-annual basis; however The "HLOGA" amendments created quarterly, instead of semi-annual, reporting periods. The reports had to disclose the following information:  







The name of the person (including employer) or organization.

The names of all political committees established or controlled by the person or organization; the name of each federal candidate or officeholder, leadership PAC, or political party committee, to whom aggregate contributions equal to or exceeding $200 were made by the person or organization.

The date, recipient, and amount of funds contributed or disbursed during the semiannual period by the person or organization or a political committee established or controlled by the person or organization.

A certification by the person or organization filing the report that the person or organization has read and is familiar with those provisions of the Standing Rules of the Senate and the Rules of the House of Representatives relating to the provision of gifts and travel; and has not provided, requested, or directed a gift, including travel, to a Member of Congress or an officer or employee of either House of Congress with knowledge that receipt of the gift would violate the standing rules of the Senate and the standing rules of the House.

The disclosure of businesses or organizations that contribute more than $5,000 and actively participate in lobbying activities by certain coalitions and associations.

The Act also increased the penalty for willful violations of the Lobby Disclosure Act from $50,000 to $200,000 and imposed a criminal penalty of up to five years in jail for knowing and corrupt failure to comply with the Act.

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Registration, Termination, and Disclosure of Lobbyists in US343 Registration Since 2001, almost 50,000 individuals and firms have registered, as lobbyists under the Lobbying Disclosure Act. During that time, the number of individuals and firms that registered has varied annually. In addition to registering with the Clerk and the Secretary, lobbyists and lobbying firms are also required to amend registration forms when changes are made to their status, clients, contact information, or other identifying information.

The following figure shows the total number of new registrants per year and number of registration amendments filed per year before and after the enactment of the "HLOGA" amendments.

Source: Data compiled from U.S. Congress, Clerk of the House of Representatives, Lobbying Disclosure Search, http://disclosures.house.gov/ld/ldsearch.aspx.

Immediately prior to the HLOGA amendments, the number of registrants amending their forms declined from a peak of 1,279 in 2002 to a low of 599 in 2007. Under the HLOGA, the number of registration amendment forms increased to 981 in 2008. The number of registration amendments decreased slightly (884) in 2009 and returned to 2007 levels in 2010 (587).

Termination A lobbyist or lobbying firm that has gone out of business or is no longer representing a client is required to file a registration termination report with the Clerk and the Secretary, it is to be noted that under LDA, termination reports were filed on a semi-annual basis.

343

Congressional Research Service, Jacob R. Straus , Lobbying the Executive Branch, October 31, 2011 (accessed

February 1st, 2013).

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The following figure shows the number of registration termination reports filed during the midyear reporting period (June 30), during the year-end reporting period (December 31), and the total number of terminations for the year, from year 2001 to year 2010.

Source: Data compiled from U.S. Congress, Clerk of the House of Representatives, Lobbying Disclosure Search, http://disclosures.house.gov/ld/ldsearch.aspx.

Since 2001, the number of terminations has increased every year except for 2007 and 2010 when there was a slight decline in total terminations from the previous year. Overall, between 2001 and 2007 there appeared to be only a slight increase in terminations at yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s end, compared with the midyear reporting period. The difference may have existed because lobbyists and lobbying firms adjust clients and staff more at the end of congressional sessions. The difference could also be tied to the number of registrations. As more lobbyists and lobbying firms register with the Clerk and the Secretary, more termination forms may be submitted.

Pursuant to the HLGOA amendments, termination reports were changed from semi-annual reports to quarterly reports. The next figure shows the quarterly termination reports filed between 2008 and 2010.

Source: Data compiled from U.S. Congress, Clerk of the House of Representatives, Lobbying Disclosure Search, http://disclosures.house.gov/ld/ldsearch.aspx.

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The trend toward a greater number of year-end terminations evident under the LDA continues under the HLOGA amendments. The number of terminations in the fourth quarter is higher than for any of the previous three quarters. The first quarter has the second highest number of terminations.

The number of terminations filed in the second quarter and the third quarter of between 2008 and 2010 were relatively consistent.

Disclosure Under the LDA, lobbyists and lobbying firms were required to file semi-annual reports disclosing certain information about clients, issues lobbied, government officials lobbied, an estimate of income generated from each client, and an estimate of total expenses incurred in connection with lobbying activities. The following figure shows the number of mid-year and year-end reports filed by lobbyists and lobbying firms between 2001 and 2007.

Source: Data compiled from U.S. Congress, Clerk of the House of Representatives, Lobbying Disclosure Search, http://disclosures.house.gov/ld/ldsearch.aspx.

Since 2001, the number of disclosure reports filed has increased from a low of 12,853 disclosures in 2001 to a high of 19,178 in 2007. In most years, the number of year-end reports was slightly greater than the number of mid-year reports. This may reflect an increase in lobbying activity towards the end of a congressional session when additional efforts might be needed to ensure the passage of important legislation.

After HLOGA however, disclosure reports were changed beginning from semi-annual reports to quarterly reports. This is why the previous figure did not contain a similar accounting of disclosure reports for years after 2007. To reflect the reporting change, the next figure shows the volume of quarterly disclosure reports filed after 2007.

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Source: Data compiled from U.S. Congress, Clerk of the House of Representatives, Lobbying Disclosure Search, http://disclosures.house.gov/ld/ldsearch.aspx.

In 2008, the number of disclosure reports filed from one quarter to the next decreased from 18,615 during the first quarter to 16,372 in the fourth quarter. In 2009, the number of disclosure reports filed each quarter was slightly less than for 2008 for the first and second quarter and higher for the third and fourth quarters.

Methods and Techniques of Lobbying344,345,346,347 Lobbying has much in common with management consulting and public relations, but with a political and legal sensibility. ď&#x201A;ˇ

ď&#x201A;ˇ

Better lobbyists seek to work in Washington for years, know the issues, and gain high skills of advocacy; they seek to cultivate close connections with members of Congress, regulators, specialists, and others. They understand strategy and have excellent communication skills; many are well suited to be able to choose which clients they would like to represent.

Lobbyists patiently cultivate networks of powerful people, over many years, trying to build trust and maintain confidence and friendships. When a client hires them to push a specific issue or agenda, they usually form coalitions to exert political pressure. Lobbying, as a result, depends on trying to be flexible to new opportunities, but at the same time, to act as an agent for a client. As one lobbyist put it: "It's my job to advance the interests of my association or client. Period."

344

Woodstock Theological Center (2002). "The Ethics of Lobbying: Organized Interests, Political Power, and the Common Good". Georgetown University Press. ISBN [[Special:BookSources/0-8474-0905-X|0-8474-0905-X]].

Retrieved 2012-01-12. "(see page 1 of "The Ethics of Lobbying" chapter)" (accessed February 1st, 2013).

345 William Kerr, William Lincoln, Prachi Mishra (22 November 2011). "The dynamics of firm lobbying".VOX. Retrieved 2012-01-13. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

346 Ken Kollman (1998). "Outside Lobbying: Public Opinion & Interest Group Strategies". Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-01740-9. Retrieved 2012-01-12. "(See Preface & Introduction)" (accessed February 1st, 2013).

347 Donald E. deKieffer (2007). "The Citizen's Guide to Lobbying Congress: Revised and Updated". Chicago Review Press. ISBN 13:978-1-55652-718-0. Retrieved 2012-01-12. "see Ch.1"(accessed February 1st, 2013).

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Lobbyists often assist congresspersons with campaign finance by arranging fundraisers, assembling PACs (Political Action Committees), and seeking donations from other clients. Many lobbyists become campaign treasurers and fundraisers for congresspersons, this helps incumbent members cope with the substantial amounts of time required to raise money for reelection bids; one estimate was that congresspersons had to spend a third of their working hours on fundraising activity.

PACs are fairly easy to set up; it requires a lawyer and about $300, roughly. An even steeper possible reward which can be used in exchange for favors is offering a highpaying job as a lobbyist, one of the best ways to "get what they wanted" was to offer a high-ranking congressional aide a high-paying job after they decided to leave public office. When such a promise of future employment was accepted, "lobbyists owned them".

Lobbyists, strive for communications which are clear, straightforward, and direct. In a one-on-one meeting with a lobbyist, it helps to understand precisely what goal is wanted. A lobbyist wants action on a bill; a legislator wants to be re-elected. The idea is to persuade a legislator that what the lobbyist wants is good public policy. Lobbyists often urge lawmakers to try to persuade other lawmakers to approve a bill.

Since it often takes a long time to build the network of relationships within the lobbying industry, ethical interpersonal dealings are important. A maxim in the industry is for lobbyists to be truthful with people they are trying to persuade; basically, what they've got is their word and reputation. An untruth, a lie is too risky to the successful development of a long-term relationship and is not worth it.

Groping for "personal dirt" on opponents was counterproductive since it would undermine respect for the lobbyist and their client, what's worse is planting an informant in an opponent's camp, since if this subterfuge is ever discovered, it will boomerang negatively in a hundred ways, and credibility will drop to zero.

Increasingly, lobbyists seek to put together coalitions and use outside lobbying by swaying public opinion. Bigger, more diverse and deep pocketed coalitions tend to be more effective in outside lobbying, and the "strength in numbers" principle often applies. Interest groups try to build sustainable coalitions of similarly situated individual organizations in pursuit of like-minded goals.

It is often difficult for a lobbyist to influence a staff member in Congress directly, since staffers tend to be well-informed and subject to views from competing interests. As an indirect tactic, lobbyists can try to manipulate public opinion which, in turn, can sometimes exert pressure on congresspersons. Activities for these purposes include trying to use the mass media, cultivating contacts with reporters and editors, encouraging them to write editorials and cover stories to influence public opinion, which may have the secondary effect of influencing Congress.

Wealthy lobbyists often encourage other lobbying clients to donate to a particular cause, in the hope that favors will be returned at a later date.

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Disclosure in Lobbying: The Acceptance of Gifts by Members of Congress Gifts for congresspersons and staffers can be problematic, since anything of sizeable value must be disclosed and generally such gifts are illegal. Failure to observe gift restrictions was one factor which caused lobbyist Jack Abramoff to eventually plead guilty to a "raft of federal corruption charges" and led to convictions for 20 lobbyists and public officials, including congressperson Bob Ney and Bush deputy interior secretary Stephen Griles.

The Gifts Rule of congress created by the ethics committee mention that any member, officer, or employee may accept a gift, other than cash or cash equivalent, having a value of less than $50, provided that the source of the gift is not a registered lobbyist, foreign agent, or private entity that retains or employs such individuals. The cumulative value of gifts that may be accepted from any one source in a calendar year must be less than $100. However there are exceptions to the Gifts Rule, such as: gifts from relatives are allowed to congresspersons, regardless of value, and gifts of personal friendship are allowed to congresspersons, however if the value of the gift exceeds 250$, they must seek approval of the Ethics Committee of receiving the gifts; and several other.

The Disclosure Rule of gifts to congresspersons obliges members, officers, and certain employees to file an annual financial disclosure report. Reporting individuals are required to disclose the donor, description, and value of all gifts aggregating more than $350 from a single source during the year. Information on certain gifts received by the spouse or dependent of the Member or employee may need to be disclosed as well.

To negate any suspicion of bribery Senate members, officers, and employees may not accept a gift that is offered in connection with an official action taken or asked to be taken. Such action may be deemed a bribe or an illegal gratuity under federal criminal law.

Jack Abramoff

Disclosure in Lobbying?

Yes: The high disclosure ensures that lobbyists cannot illegally influence the policy maker by disclosing the lobbyist, the person who is lobbied, and those employing the lobbyist, there is very little space for corruption in public policy making through the lobbying process. Moreover having mandatory spending disclosures and significant reviews or audits of lobbyists further limits the potential for lobbyists to engage in illegal acts.

No: It is argued that such high level of disclosure may put a burden on both the lobbyist who must disclose his actions every period and the authority which must check the lobbyist documents, therefore creating an unneeded financial burden.

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The Revolving Door The revolving door is the movement of federal public employees into the lobbying industry. In other words, any former senator is making benefit from the personal connections acquired during public service. According to conventional wisdom, the importance of revolving door lobbyists stems from the fact that 'Washington is all about connections'. 348 The Ethics Reform Act of 1989 added post-employment restrictions for Members and certain senior congressional staffers, put into effect in January 1, 1991. The act suggests that thirty-five states have a “cooling-off period” before a former legislator can come back to work at the legislative body, but this time as a lobbyist. 349 In 2007, changes were made to the revolving door statute increasing the one year “cooling off” period for U.S. Senators to two years, and broadening the one-year “cooling off” restrictions for covered senior Senate staff.

The purposes of enacting “revolving door” laws were:  

To protect the government against the use of proprietary information by former employees who might use that information on behalf of a private party against the government.

To ensure that governmental employees are not to be influenced in the performance of public duties by the thought of later reaping a benefit from private individuals.

Amendments in 2007 to the law included: 

“Cooling Off” Periods on Lobbying or Advocacy: There are now “cooling off” periods of two different durations applicable in the legislative branch that restrict post-employment “lobbying” and advocacy activities: First: United States Senators are subject to a two-year post-employment advocacy ban after leaving the senate.

Second: Members of the House of Representatives, as well as “senior” legislative branch employees, are now subject to a one-year “cooling off” period after they leave congressional office or employment.

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Trade or Treaty Negotiations: All officers and employees of the government, including Members of Congress who worked on a treaty or trade negotiation and who had access to information not subject to disclosure under the Freedom of Information Act, may not use such information for one year after leaving the government.

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Representing Foreign Governments: 348

Blanes i Vidal, Jordi , Mirko Draca, and Christian Fons-Rosen. "Revolving Door Lobbyists." http://personal.lse.ac.uk. http://personal.lse.ac.uk/blanesiv/revolving.pdf (accessed February 13, 2013).

349

National Conference of State Legislatures. " 50 State Table: Revolving Door Prohibitions ." NCSL Home. http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/ethicshome/50-state-table-revolving-door-prohibitions.aspx (accessed February 13, 2013).

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Members of Congress who are covered by the one-year “cooling off” periods, are also prohibited for a year after leaving office from representing an official foreign entity, or aiding or advising such an entity with intent to influence any decision making in America.  Lobbying Restrictions on Senate Staff: All former staffers are prohibited for one year after leaving the Senate from influencing or shaping the opinions of the Senator they have formerly worked for. Former committee staff is prohibited from lobbying the Members or the staff of that committee for one year.  Floor Privileges of Former Members: Former members are prohibited from the floor privileges if they are registered as lobbyists or agents for foreign principal.  Acceptance of Civil Office by Retiring Member of Congress: A Member of Congress may not, before the expiration of his or her term, accept a civil office in the U.S. government if that office was created, or the salary for the office had been increased during the Member’s current term.

This constitutional provision would by its terms prevent a Member of Congress from retiring before his or her current term has expired, and accept such a civil position with the federal 350 government.

Foreign Lobbying: Globalization has reached almost every aspect of Statehood; commerce worldwide is becoming more integrated, as there are multinational companies in several states, it is logical therefore to expect that lobbying efforts will reflect the increasing globalization.

Sometimes foreign-owned corporations will want to lobby the United States government, and in such instances, new rules can apply, since national security interests might be at stake.

The History and Current Status of Foreign Lobbying 351 In 1934 Ivy Ledbetter Lee was investigated by the congress for helping the Nazi government. Ivy Lee was a journalist and the first Public Relations Counselor. He helped a German chemicals company called "German Dye Trust" to enhance its public image in the US. However his action was questioned and investigated by the congress for suspicion of helping the Nazis.

As a result the congress passed the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) in 1938, which was the first major reform for federal lobbying. Currently foreign lobbying is under tremendous 350

National Conference of State Legislatures. " 50 State Table: Revolving Door Prohibitions ." NCSL Home. http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/ethicshome/50-state-table-revolving-door-prohibitions.aspx (accessed February 13, 2013).

351

Congressional Research Service, Lobbying Disclosure and Ethics Proposals Related to Lobbying Introduced in the 109th Congress: A Comparative Analysis, R. Eric Petersen (January 13, 2006) http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rl33234.pdf

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reform, for there are multiple loopholes that are used by lobbyists to evade laws like FARA and The Lobbying disclosure act. Loopholes such as the fact that only American citizens, and immigrants holding green cards, can contribute to federal politics, but the American divisions of foreign companies can form political action committees (PACs) and collect contributions from their American employees and foreign governments can also get lobbying firms to form PACs on their behalf.

The Effects of Foreign Lobbying on US Policy Making 352 There are obvious effects of Foreign Lobbying on US Policy Making, such as the fact that constituents might believe that there is too much foreign interference in the US Congress and Government, which might decrease the level of trust shared by the US voters and their representatives. The bills that were passed to govern the issue of foreign lobbying did not restrict certain countries, or even set a certain criteria to determine which foreign states are eligible of paying money directly to lobbyists and which are not, which opened the door to any type of state willing to hire lobbyists in the US.

State Sponsors of Terrorism and the Axis of Evil: 353 As mentioned before, lobbyists representing state sponsors of terrorism and the "Axis of Evil" are subject to the same rules and regulations of disclosure as the non-terrorist countries, under the Lobbying Disclosure Act (LDA) and Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). Which opened a very easy door for these states to affect and manipulate US policies, surprisingly, there are lobbyists in the US that are hired by the Chinese government, and companies in China, in fact there are 14 different entities from China that are hiring a different set of lobbyists in the US to guide US policies in the Chinese favor. Chinese public entities including the Chinese government and the Chinese embassy in the US have paid a sum of 3,740,000$ to lobbyists in the US, while Chinese private entities have paid a sum of about 6,900,000$ to lobbyists in the US!!

The Iraqi Government on the other hand paid a sum of more than 3 million $ to lobbyists in the US, to lobby solving the issues of deploying more soldiers to Iraq or retreating from Iraq by methods 352

Raj Chari and Gary Murphy, Examining and Assessing the Regulation of Lobbyists in Canada, the USA, the EU institutions, and Germany: A Report for the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government, ( Dublin: Dublin City University, http://www.environ.ie/en/LocalGovernment/LocalGovernmentAdministration/StandardsinPublicLife/Publications Documents/FileDownLoad,14572,en.pdf 353

Foreign Lobbying Influence Tracker, A Project of ProPublica and Sunlight Foundation, http://foreignlobbying.org/client/ (accessed January 25, 2013).

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that would meet Iraqi interests. Furthermore the Iraqi Supreme Islamic Council paid a sum of more than 500,000 $ to lobbyists in the US, and it extended to the Kurdistan Regional Government to pay a sum of 600,000 $ to lobbyists in the US to resolve the disputes between the Kurds and the Iraqis in favor of an independence of the Kurdistan Regional Government from Iraq!

However there are suggestions and proposals to modify the status of such lobbyists:  Requiring Members of Congress and legislative branch employees to disclose to the Secretary of State any contacts with representatives or officials of governments designated as State Sponsors of Terrorism by the Department of State.  Requiring representatives of governments designated as State Sponsors of Terrorism to disclose to the Attorney General lobbying contacts with legislative branch officials, and for other purposes.  Preventing any person or entity from lobbying on the behalf of States sponsor of terrorism.

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3rd Topic

C

hina: The Great Monster

Introduction to China

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Full name: People's Republic of China Capital: Beijing Provinces: 22 Official Language: Mandarin Chinese Major Religions: Buddhism, Christianity, Islam, Taoism (Official Atheism) 354 355  Date of Establishment: October 1, 1949 2  Area: 9,640,821 km  Population: Total Population 1.35 billion  Ethnic Groups: 91.51% Han, and 55 other recognized minorities  Military: People's Liberation Army  The Ruling Party: The Communist Party of China  The Current Head of State: President Xi Jinping  Prime Minister "Premier": Li Keqiang 356  Legislature: National People's Congress 354

The Chinese Flag: The red color represents the revolution, while the stars symbolize the four social classes, namely: The working class, the peasantry, the urban bourgeoisie, and the national bourgeoisie, under the Communist Party of China.

BBC News - China country profile - Overview." BBC - Homepage. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asiapacific-13017877 (accessed February 13, 2013).

355 "China Information, China General Information, Information about China, China Quick Information." China General Information, China Information, the People's Republic of China. http://www.chinatoday.com/general/a.htm (accessed February 13, 2013).

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China's economic success has permitted it to pursue a greater role on the international stage.

China is recognized both as a regional and aspiring global power. China's active diplomacy is reflected in growing trade relations, and proposals for stronger security ties. As a whole, the region has received China's activism with both enthusiasm and trepidation. It has adopted a non-threatening diplomacy with its neighbor countries which has yielded significant success in the economic realm challenging Japanese and American dominance in the next three to five years. In the security realm, China's diplomacy made critical inroads in the regional security structure dominated by the United States and 357 its bilateral security relationships.

(A) China's Rising Military: Chinese Relations with Neighboring Countries China has always used the Southeast Asian countries as an integral part of its security plan. On the other hand, the South Asian countries are partially accepting this situation in the region but with fear of China's ambitions of military dominance over the weaker neighbors. 358 When looking at the area from the United States military perspective, Chinese-South Asian affairs are important for two matters: 1) For an accurate assessment of the safety of the U.S. military bases present in the South Asian area from the Chinese military or "Chinese-friendly" militaries present there, and 2) To ensure there can never be any successful Chinese attempts of military control over the pacific.

Sino-Taiwan relations: On the 1st of October 1949, the Communists have established the People's Republic of China overcoming the Nationalists who fled to the island of Taiwan and set up the Republic of China there.

Since then China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province ruled by leaders claiming Taiwan as a sovereign state. The US announced that it may be prepared to defend Taiwan in the face of any Chinese assault.359

356

Central Intelligence Agency. "The World Fact book - Chine." CIA. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/ch.html (accessed February 13, 2013).

357 Economy , Elizabeth. "China's Rise in Southeast Asia: implications for the Unite States." Journal of Contemporary China , August 14, 2005, 44 edition, sec. Politics.

358 Baviera, Aileen S.P. . "China's Relations with Southeast Asia: Political Security and Economic Interests." hilo.hawaii. http://hilo.hawaii.edu/uhh/faculty/tamvu/documents/baviera.pdf (accessed February 13, 2013).

359 BBC News - China country profile - Overview." BBC - Homepage. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asiapacific-13017877 (accessed February 13, 2013).

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Sino-Japanese relations: Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s relationship with Japan is complex and long-standing, if put in a timeline, the ancient "post-PRC" relationship between both countries would show several fluctuations, which were also inherited after the rise of the PRC: 1) Starting from a very friendly Japan which has provided significant economic development aid to the PRC since 1979 through concessional loan programs, and its trade with the PRC broadened to $237 billion in 2007; 2) Going through tensions between both countries due to Japans' contributions to US-led military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, along with Japanese support to Taiwan by declaring it a country for "security concerns" in a joint statement with the US; 3) And ending in a present dispute between China and Japan over the ownership of a group of islands in the East China Sea which are the Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu Islands by China), which was the spark of a chain of anti-Japanese demonstrations by the Chinese population, and on the other side, the Japanese factories and businesses have shuttered and Airplanes stopped flights between both countries. 360

Chinese demonstrations around the Japanese Embassy in China

Sino-Philippines Relations: China's relations with Philippine can be considered a mixture of Sino-Japanese and SinoTaiwan relations.

China believes that almost 70 percent of all Filipinos have Chinese ancestry and that they are the origins of this Asian region so they have the right to dominate it.361 China also claims sovereignty over the South China Sea and the masses of oil and gas reserves in the area.

360

Smith , Sheila A. . "Chinese Fishing Boat Sets Off Sino-Japanese Conflict." Council on Foreign Relations. http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2010/09/13/chinese-fishing-boat-sets-off-sino-japanese-conflict/ (accessed February 13, 2013).

361 Raitisoja, Geni . "China in Asia: Sino-Philippine relations | gbtimes." gbtimes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; The Third Angle Chinese news and video reports on China today. http://gbtimes.com/focus/china-asia-sino-philippine-relations (accessed February 13, 2013).

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The last 20 years have witnessed several fluctuations in their relationship: 1) Starting with Chinas provoking to the Philippines by building military structures in and nearby the Philippine's region in the early 1990s.

2) Passing through the start of the 21st century, when the relations between both states have improved especially in the economic field, China became Philippine's third largest trade partner and there was great cooperation in the security systems of both countries, also the two countries celebrated the launch of the “Sino-Philippine Friendship and Exchange Year” on the 20th of March 2012.

3) And again, ending by dispute over Spratly Islands (which lie south of the Scarborough Shoal) which turned the Sino-Philippine's relations back to aggression. 362

Sino-North Korean Relations: A way to describe this relation is by saying that China has been a crucial supporter to North Korea, but in many ways now, North Korea has become more of a thorn in the side of China than a reliable ally.

North Korea’s provocative actions and threats aimed at the United States, South Korea, or Japan have been a cause of head ache to Beijing, as it has to face the fact that Pyongyang regularly has ignored its advice not to proceed with provocative actions, which, once taken, leave China to fend off hostile reactions by other countries in order to maintain stability on the peninsula. 363

Sino-South Korean Relations There are great bilateral relations between South Korea and its giant neighbor, China. However the only tension between the two states is summarized in two words: "North Korea".

North Korea is the South Korean source of turmoil and because of China's backing of the North Korean regime; South Korea accepted America's military alliance to become the backbone of their security. This led to the confrontation of America and China.364

362

Hoffman, Samantha. "The Jamestown Foundation: Sino-Philippine Tension and Trade Both Rising amid Scarborough Standoff." The Jamestown Foundation: The Jamestown Foundation. http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=39306&cHash=12031114d9 1516eda5f3e718822206a9 (accessed February 13, 2013).

363 Bajoria, Jayshree . "The China-North Korea Relationship." Committee on Foreign Relations. www.cfr.org/china/china-north-korea-relationship/p11097 (accessed February 13, 2013).

364 Pan, Esther . "South Korea's Ties with China, Japan, and the U.S.: Defining a New Role in a Dangerous Neighborhood." Committee on Foreign Relations. http://www.cfr.org/east-asia/south-koreas-ties-china-japan-usdefining-new-role-dangerous-neighborhood/p9808 (accessed February 13, 2013).

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Sino-American Relations: The Economic Perspective: After 30 years of fastpaced economic growth, China is now the world’s second largest economy, and the Sino-American relationship has expanded to encompass a broad range of global, regional, and bilateral issues.

The Negative part of their economic relationship lies in how both countries view each others' economic models, as some in the United States believe that China has achieved its economic successes by playing an unfair game. Such critics point to 1) the huge role of the Chinese public sector in their economy, 2) China’s strong reliance on exports for growth, and 3) its policy of keeping the Chinese currency artificially weak to make Chinese exports more attractive for importing nations. For their part, Chinese officials have criticized the United States for its high levels of consumption, low savings rate, long-term debt, and alleged protectionism. Looking at the bright side however, this perception of both countries to each other has Positively affected their cooperation in 1) the lingering effects of the 2008-2009 global financial crises on the United States economy, which added to the urgency of Washington’s efforts to try to achieve a so-called level playing field for U.S. firms that trade with and operate in China. Also 2) Washington now seeks Beijing’s cooperation in rebalancing the global economy and reigniting global growth.

The Strategic Perspective: Strategically, USA looks to China, a fellow permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, to help block the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea.

The Military Perspective: Hanging over the relationship is the question of whether, as China grows in military power, the United States and China can manage their relationship in such a way as to avoid the rivalry and conflict that have accompanied the rise of new powers in previous eras. "The United States and China have to succeed in finding a new answer to the ancient question of what happens when an established power and a rising power meet." according to the description of Sino-American relations by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton because, "Interdependence means that one of us cannot succeed unless the other does as well."

Making the challenge harder is the fact that the U.S.-China relationship remains dogged by longstanding mutual mistrust. That mistrust stems in part from the two countries’ very different political systems. Many in the United States are uncomfortable with China’s authoritarian system of government and see continued Communist Party rule in a post Cold War world as misplaced or inconsistent. Some in China believe that the United States seeks to 228

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destabilize China, with the goal of foisting multi-party democracy upon it and pushing the Communist Party from power.

Mistrust is particularly pronounced on security matters. The United States government sees China’s military modernization as aimed, in part, at constraining the U.S. military’s freedom of movement in Asia and deterring U.S. intervention in the case of Chinese use of force against Taiwan. It also sees China’s disputes with its neighbors over territory in the South China Sea and the East China Sea as threatening to undermine the stability upon which the prosperity of the region depends. A wave of cyber intrusions originating from China have also undermined trust. For its part, China’s government is unnerved by the late 2011 announcement of a U.S. rebalancing toward Asia, seeing it as aimed at strengthening the hands of China’s neighbors in their disputes with China, constraining the activities of the Chinese military throughout Asia, and even signaling that the United States views China as a potential future enemy. 365

Comparison between the Chinese and the United States' army: Point of Comparison Name Leadership

Service Branches

Budget Active Personnel Nuclear Arsenal Total Naval Vessels Total Aircrafts Total Land Weapons

Chinese Army 366

US Army367

People's Liberation Army  Chairman of Central Military Commission: President Xi Jinping  Minister of National Defense: General Liang Guanglie  Chief of PLA General Staff: General Fang Fenghui PLA Ground Forces PLA Air Forces PLA Navy Second Artillery Corps

United States Armed Forces  Commander-in-Chief: President Barack Obama  Secretary of Defense: Secretary Chuck Hagel  Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: General Martin Dempsey US Army US Marine Corps US Navy US Air Force US Coast Guard 553 U.S. Billion Dollars 1,456,862 Yes 2,384 18,234 56,269

115 U.S. Billion Dollars368 2,285,000 Yes 972 5,176 47,575

365

Xiang, Huan . "On Sino-U.S. Relations | Foreign Affairs." Home | Foreign Affairs. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/35509/huan-xiang/on-sino-us-relations (accessed February 13, 2013).

366

United States Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments involving the People's Rep ublic of

China 2012 (Washington, DC: Office of the secretary of defense, May 2012) http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2012_CMPR_Final.pdf

(accessed January 15, 2013).

367

United States department of Defense. DoD PERSONNEL & PROCUREMENT STATISTICS. ARMED FORCES STRENGTH FIGURES FOR OCTOBER

31, 2012. http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/MILITARY/ms0.pdf (accessed February 1st, 2013).

368

Holmes, James "What to make of Chinas Defense Spending Increase," March 7, 2013http://thediplomat.com/the-naval-

diplomat/2013/03/07/what-to-make-of-chinas-defense-spending-increase/ (accessed March 23, 2013)

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China's New Army Agenda:369,370 The United States has long been concerned about the intentions behind China’s military modernization effort. China’s military continues to modernize rapidly, supported by more than two decades of steady increases in military spending. So for example, when considering the safety of U.S. bases in Japan where the bulk of American military power in Asia is concentrated, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) now possesses the means, the motives, and the opportunities to deliver disabling blows against these military bases.

First consider the means. The Chinese military can now lock their crosshairs on Japan, home to the largest U.S. naval and air bases in the world.

Economically: According to the Pentagon’s 2012 report to Congress on military and security developments involving China, China’s officially-disclosed military budget rose to an average of 11.8% annually over the period from 2000 to 2011. In March 2012, China announced that its defense budget for 2012 would be $106 billion, an increase of 11.2% over 2011. Pentagon believes China’s actual military spending for 2011 was in the range of $120 billion to $180 billion.

Military Armory and Technique: In the 2012 report to Congress, the Pentagon describes China’s military modernization program as “improving their military’s capacity to conduct high-intensity, regional military operations, including counter-intervention operations,” defined as “operationallydefined tasks designed to prevent foreign military forces (e.g., USA) from intervening in a conflict and preventing China from accomplishing its military objectives.”

China’s leaders in 2011 sustained investment in advanced cruise missiles, short and medium range conventional ballistic missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, counterpace weapons, and military cyberspace capabilities which appear designed to enable anti-access/area-denial missions, or what PLA strategists refer to as “counter intervention operations.” The PLA also continued to demonstrate improved capabilities in advanced fighter aircraft, as evidenced by the inaugural flight testing of the J20 stealth fighter; limited power projection, with the launch of China’s first aircraft carrier for sea trials; integrated air defenses; undersea warfare; nuclear deterrence and strategic strike; improved command and control; and more sophisticated training and exercises across China’s air, naval, and land forces.

In the case of U.S. bases in Japan; China’s DF-15 ballistic missile can reach Kadena airbase in Okinawa, the hub of American airpower in Asia. The PLA’s non-nuclear version of the DF-21 missile boasts the range to hit all military facilities across the entire Japanese archipelago. According to the Pentagon’s 2010 annual report on the PLA, the DF-15 and the DF-21 missiles numbered over 300 and 80 respectively 369

Trevor moss,"5 Things the Pentagon Isn't Telling Us About the Chinese Military," Foreign policy, May 23, 2012. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/23/5_things_the_pentagon_isn_t_telling_us_about_the_chinese _military (accessed February 1st, 2013).

370

Toshi Yoshihara, "How vulnerable are U.S. bases in the Pacific now?" CNN, December 7th, 2012. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/07/u-s-bases-in-japan-sitting-ducks/ (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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Second, consider the motives: Military "Goals": The Pentagon believes that the PLA’s “most critical potential mission” remains deterring Taiwan from moving toward independence. To that end, the 2012 report to Congress said, the PLA is preparing not only to deter Taiwan from asserting sovereignty, but also to “deter, disrupt, or deny effective third-party (including US) intervention in a potential cross-Strait conflict,” and to defeat Taiwan’s forces in a conflict.

Other PLA priorities, according to the Pentagon, include the expanding of “non-war” operations including counter-piracy and counter-terrorism operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, UN peacekeeping, protection of sea lanes, and securing of space-based assets. Another very important aim of the Chinese military is the "string of pearls" strategy which stands for the Chinese plan to establish a network of foreign naval bases.

Benefits: For a military campaign against Taiwan, to obtain its maximum effectiveness, the PLA would need to inflict substantial damage on Japanese airfields and naval facilities that are critical to U.S. air superiority and sea control, the two operational prerequisites for thwarting Chinese war aims. As such, salvoes of missile strikes to render inoperative Kadena airbase and Yokosuka naval base would likely be among the PLA’s opening moves.

Crippling bases in Japan would by no means constitute a war winner for Beijing. But denying American use of bases near China would shove back the start line for U.S. warships and aircraft by thousands of kilometers to such military hubs as Guam and Hawaii. And the more distance U.S. forces must cover to reach China, the less staying power those same forces would enjoy while operating in the war zone.

Finally, opportunities beckon. Perceptions of American overdependence on forward bases could tempt the Chinese to hit first and hard. No naval base in Asia rivals Yokosuka’s strategic location, physical infrastructure, world-class repair facilities, and highly-skilled local workforce. Chinese strategists believe, perhaps rightly, that if the PLA could knock out Yokosuka, the U.S. fleet would need to fall back to Hawaii or even San Diego to meet its critical logistical needs.

U.S. Party Stances towards China The Problem: The U.S. government has received adequate reports previewing the capabilities of the new Chinese rise in military, and now understands the great threat that bestows their military bases in the Pacific around China; the U.S. government also has received reports previewing "Sino-neighborhood" affairs and knows which country can be considered Chinese allies and which can accept more U.S. military involvement on their lands, if the U.S. Congress ever decides they should deploy more troops or create new bases on any of the neighboring countries to China to insulate their already existing bases from Chinese threats, or to even impose some further threats on the Chinese military and give them a taste of their own medicine.

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The Democratic Party Stance on China: 371 The Obama Administration has repeatedly stated that it “welcomes a strong, prosperous and successful China that plays a greater role in world affairs.”President Obama signaled soon after taking office that he hoped to work with China to address a broad range of global issues, most prominently the global financial crisis, climate change, and nuclear non-proliferation, but also such issues as security in Afghanistan and Pakistan and the threat of pandemic disease.

At the same time, the Administration has sought to encourage China to follow international norms and laws, and has worked to increase the United States’ visibility in Asia in order to give comfort to countries uncertain about the impact of China’s rise and provide important balance and leadership.

Part of the effort to encourage China to adhere to international norms has involved working through multilateral institutions. The United States and China are fellow permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and, since President Obama took office, have worked together successfully in the Security Council to pass sanctions targeting North Korea and Iran’s nuclear programs, although China has also blocked some proposed Security Council actions sought by the United States, most notably an action related Syria.

To the left is US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, while to the right is the Chinese Minister of National Defense; General Liang Guanglie

to

The United States has sought to resolve trade disputes with China through the rules-based mechanisms of the World Trade Organization, and engaged with China on climate change through meetings of parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Washington has also urged Beijing to follow norms on aid, export credit finance, and overseas investment established by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development However, the Democratic Party will remain committed to the goal of getting the Chinese government to protect indigenous innovation, workers rights, and the universally set human rights of their countries citizens, as well as protecting the rights of the Tibetan people to preserve their cultural and religious identity. Also Democrats believe that China must uphold international economic rules regarding currency, export financing, intellectual property. Finally, the Democratic Party will work on maintaining a one China policy, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues that is consistent with the wishes and best interests of the people of Taiwan. Therefore the congress democrats are demanding that the president have a more firm policy towards China.

371

The Democratic Party. Moving America Forward 2012 Democratic National Platform http://assets.dstatic.org/dnc-platform/2012-National-Platform.pdf (accessed October 26, 2012).

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The Republican Party Stance on China:372 The Republican Party platform states many dangerous policies against China, as they undermine the Chinese nationalism and economy. Republicans have summarized their rather tough stance towards China by stating that "Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s pursuit of advanced military capabilities without any apparent need; suppression of human rights in Tibet, Xinjiang, and other areas; religious persecution; barbaric one-child policies involving forced abortion; erosion of democracy in Hong Kong; and the destabilizing claims in the South China Sea. The serious trade disputes between US and China and especially Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s failure to enforce international standards for the protection of intellectual property and copyrights, as well as its manipulation of its currency, call for a firm response from a new Republican Administration."

Also the Republicans spoke of a US intervention for the sake of Taiwan if China decided to start a war. In addition Governor Romney promised a firm policy towards China to remind them to play by the rules like everybody else, especially concerning the currency depreciation which he called cheating. 373 To sum up both parties have almost the same take on china for the economic and political side, however the democrats act with certain diplomacy to avoid a head to head confrontation with China.

On the other hand, the Republicans are accused of being unaware of their statements and their policies.

372

The Republican Party. We Believe in America Republican Platform (2012) http://www.gop.com/wpcontent/uploads/2012/08/2012GOPPlatform.pdf (accessed October 26, 2013).

373

2012 Republican candidates," China," http://2012.republican-candidates.org/China.php (accessed on 26 October, 2012)

233

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(B) Cyber Security: Definition of Cyber Security The literal meaning of this expression is the state of being protected against the criminal or unauthorized use of electronic data, or the measures taken to achieve this safety.

Cyberspace touches nearly every part of our daily lives. It's the broadband networks beneath us and the wireless signals around us, the local networks in our schools, hospitals, and businesses. It's the classified military and intelligence networks that keep us safe, and the World Wide Web that has made us more interconnected than at any time in human history. We must secure our cyberspace to ensure that we can continue to grow the nation’s economy and protect our way of life.374 The Obama Administration sent Congress a package of legislative proposals in May 2011 that grant the federal government the authority to ensure that corporations that own the assets most critical to the nation’s security and economic prosperity are adequately addressing the risks posed by cyber security threats. The House introduced a series of bills that address a variety of issues—from toughening law enforcement of cybercrimes to giving the Department of Homeland Security oversight of federal information technology and critical infrastructure security to lessening liability for private companies that adopt cyber security best practices. The Senate is pursuing a comprehensive cyber security bill with several committees working to create a single vehicle for passage. 375,376

Definition of Cyber Attack A cyber attack is an attempt by a criminal/hacker to damage or destroy a computer network or system. It can be considered simply a computer-to computer attack that undermines the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of a computer or information stored in it.377 Nevertheless, the FBI had a more political oriented definition of cyber terrorism as "The premeditated, politically motivated attack against information, computer systems, computer programs, and data which result in violence against noncombatant targets by sub-national groups or clandestine agents."378 The modernized role of computers in daily life, transactions, bookings, or even studying has expanded to a darker side by reaching crime. Terrorists, criminals, or hackers are now stimulated to make good use of their computers against their targeted victims.

The internet has provided a virtual battlefield for countries having problems with each other such as Taiwan against China, Israel against Palestine, India against Pakistan, or even Russia against the US. In order to combat this type of attack a lot of efforts should be exerted.

374

Jane Schmitt, Crimes in cyber space, Computer Crime Research Center,May 28, 2008 Eric A. Fischer,Federal Laws Relating to Cybersecurity,Congress Research Service,November 9, 2012 376 Rita Tehan, Cybersecurity: Authoritative Reports and Resources ,Congress Research Service,January 17, 2013 375

(accessed January 15, 2013).

377

Institute of futures studies, Technology, National Identity and the State, Stenlås, Niklas 2008:7 John Arquilla,and David F. Ronfeldt. Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy, Rand Corporation Monograph/Report MR-1382 (accessed February 1st, 2013).

378

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China's Cyber Terrorism From the beginning of 2012, government officials and private-sector experts have paraded before Congress and described in alarming terms a silent threat: cyber-attacks carried out by foreign governments. Robert S. Mueller III, the director of the F.B.I., said cyber-attacks would soon replace terrorism as the agency’s No. 1 concern as foreign hackers, particularly from China, penetrate American firms’ computers and steal huge amounts of valuable data and intellectual property.

Congress has already been informed that an American company had all of its data from a 10-year, $1 billion research program copied by hackers in one night!! General Keith B. Alexander, head of the military’s Cyber Command, called the continuing, rampant cyber-theft “the greatest transfer of wealth in history.”

According to a Congressional testimony, 94 percent of companies served by the computer-security firm Mandiant were unaware that they had been victimized. And although the Securities and Exchange Commission has urged companies to reveal when they have been victims of cyber-espionage, most do not. Some, including Sony, Citibank, Lockheed, Booz Allen, Google, EMC and the Nasdaq have admitted to being victims. 379 Here are some other incidents of cyber-attacks on the U.S. by China: 

The U.S. government in an October 2011 report to Congress issued by the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive (NCIX).The NCIX report described Chinese actors as “the world’s most active and persistent perpetrators of economic espionage,” and both the Chinese and Russian governments as “aggressive and capable collectors of sensitive U.S. economic information and technologies, particularly in cyberspace.” The report noted that U.S. businesses and cyber security experts had reported “an onslaught of computer network intrusions originating from IP addresses in China,” although it also noted the difficulty of “attribution,” or determining what entities were behind the attacks, whether individuals or corporate or state actors.



In 2009, the United States discovered that its electricity network was hacked and that parts of the network allegedly could be shut down whenever the hacker wishes to do so. Although these foreign intruders did not cause immediate damage, they left behind software programs that could be used in the future to disrupt this critical infrastructure. As expected, this attack was traced to China, and the chief of counter intelligence in the United States at the time stated that "we have seen Chinese network operations inside our electricity grid." The fact that Americans were not able to protect their electricity network is one critical aspect, but another is that this shows that the United States could have a serious problem in China's use of Cyber Warfare.380

379

Clarke, Richard. "How China Steals Our Secrets", April 2, 2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/03/opinion/how-china-steals-our-secrets.html?_r=4& (accessed February 1st, 2013).

380

Hjortdal, Magnus. 2011. China's Use of Cyber Warfare: Espionage Meets Strategic Deterrence.Journal of Strategic Security, 4 (2): 1-24. (accessed February 1st, 2013).

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

Again in the same year of 2009, there was a forced electronic entry into the Joint Strike Fighter program and large amounts of data were copied. According to present and former employees at the Pentagon, the attack can be traced to China. Having such information copied makes it easy for China to defend itself against the aircraft acquired by many western countries.

Furthermore, the cyber-terrorists are assumed to have acquired enough data to enable them of copying parts of the Strike Fighter program, if not all of it!



A massive hacker attack against Gmail's customer accounts in December 2009 occurred. This attack was considered a mass attack as Gmail's hacking formed only a small part of a larger cyber attack against at least 34 American companies and institutions with links to the U.S. administration, including suppliers to the Pentagon and even some members of the U.S. Congress. The Gmail attack attracted great media attention to an area of great concern for the United States. Reports have linked two Chinese educational institutions to the attacks on Google: Lanxiang Vocational School based in Shandong province; and Shanghai Jiaotong University. The attack on Gmail was likely a Chinese attempt to spy on what Beijing labels "separatists", and was likely not a part of any strategic deterrence strategy. Analysts from the U.S. Government, including experts from the National Security Agency, remain certain that a Chinese security consultant in his thirties made the program that was used to launch the attacks on Gmail and the 34 other companies. According to National Security Agency sources, "The spyware creator is a freelancer and did not launch the attack, but Beijing officials had 'special access' to his programming."381



The Chinese Defense Ministry confirmed the existence of an online defense unit in May 2011.

Composed of about thirty elite internet specialists, named the "Cyber Blue Team," or also known as the "Blue Army." This "Blue Army" has officially claimed to be engaged in cyberdefense operations, though there are considerable amounts of fear that the unit has been used to penetrate secure online systems of foreign governments, including the US government. 382

The Solution? If any The stumbles facing the U.S. government in solving this problem summarize in the following: 1) Fear of the U.S. people and officials that government monitoring would be seen as a cover for illegal snooping and a violation of citizens’ privacy. The government fears a negative reaction from privacy-rights and Internet-freedom advocates who do not want the government scanning Internet traffic.

2) Others in the administration fear further damaging relations with China.

3) The U.S. already has a very incompetent and weak cyber infrastructure, unlike China, which has a very strong, authoritative, government-controlled cyber infrastructure, that gives it an advantage over the U.S. if the U.S. ever decides it should confront China or even stand up to its 381 382

China Daily, China vs Google , Crime Research Center,January 26, 2006 (accessed January 28, 2013).

Johannes Leuschke,The Combat Against Cyber Terrorism, Research Report UN Disarmament Committee

(accessed January 28, 2013).

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"cyber-bullying". The officials simply fear that standing up to China might trigger disruptive attacks on Americaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s vulnerable computer-controlled infrastructure.

However, several acts were discussed in congress, none of which passed. The SECURE IT act generally authorizes private entities to employ countermeasures and use cyber security systems to obtain, identify, or possess cyber threat information on its own networks or the networks of another entity with such entity's authorization. While on the other hand, the Cybersecurity Act of 2012 directs the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with owners and operators of critical infrastructure, the Critical Infrastructure Partnership Advisory Council, and other federal agencies and private sector entities, to: (1) Conduct a top-level assessment of cybersecurity risks to determine which sectors face the greatest immediate risk, and beginning with the sectors identified as having the highest priority, conduct, on a sector-by-sector basis, cyber risk assessments of the critical infrastructure; (2) establish a procedure for the designation of critical infrastructure; (3) identify or develop risk-based cybersecurity performance requirements; (4) implement cyber response and restoration plans.

The situation as it is, the government is completely numb of any cyber-attacks, or is clearly showing that the U.S. cybersecurity is not one of their priorities, both party platforms are empty of any solutions to Chinese cyberattacks, due to lack of technicality, or lack of privacy in all the presented bills, the problem is simply staying unsolved, US cybersecurity is in threat of more and larger cyberattacks, most of the U.S. private and public sector entities (including the military) are demanding a solution to solve the issue even if it includes less privacy to them from the government, while advocates of net-privacy are demanding a solution to this issue without affecting user privacy.

All the mentioned people have only one common "positive" action towards this issue: Praying for a miracle to cure their head-ache.

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Committee on Near East and South and central Asian affairs (NESA)

238

The 12th Model American Congress Year 2013 Challenges faced...Future embraced

MAC'13 Congressional Research Service Report (CRS)

All rights reservedŠ

.‫ جامعة القاهرة‬،‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‬ April 19, 2013

Committee on Near East and South and central Asian affairs (NESA) ‫لجنة شئون الشرق األدنى وجنوب ووسط آسيا‬

Prepared by: Chairlady : Nouran Shalash Vice-chairlady : Ibrahim A. El-sheikh Ranking member: Ahmed H. El-sheikh Party consultant : Miral Ahmed

2

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫مقدمة عن اللجنة‬ ‫لجنة شئون الشرق األدنى وجنوب ووسط آسيا هى فى الحقيقة محاكاة للجنة فرعية من‬ ‫لجنة العالقات الخارجية فى مجلس الشيوخ األمريكى‪ ،‬اللجنة األم‪ .‬اللجنة الفرعية المعنية‬ ‫هي المسؤولة عن العالقات بين الواليات المتحدة وبلدان الشرق األوسط وجميع بلدان‬ ‫شمال أفريقيا المطلة على البحر األبيض المتوسط من مصر إلى المغرب‪ .‬تشرف اللجنة‬ ‫الفرعية أيضا على العالقات مع دول جنوب ووسط آسيا‪ ،‬المقابلة الختصاص مكتب‬ ‫الشؤون الجنوبية وآسيا الوسطى في وزارة الخارجية‪ .‬تم إنشائها فى األصل ألهمية‬ ‫المنطقة المذكورة بالنسبة لمصالح الواليات المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫هذه اللجنة الفرعية مسؤولة أيضا عن جميع األمور التي تقع في المناطق الخاضعة‬ ‫لواليتها القضائية فيما يتعلق باإلرهاب وعدم االنتشار‪ ،‬والجريمة والمخدرات غير‬ ‫المشروعة‪ ،‬وبرامج المساعدات الخارجية األميركية‪ ،‬وتعزيز التجارة والصادرات‬ ‫األمريكية‪.‬‬ ‫رأى القائمون على إنشاء النموذج فرصة فى إستخدام هذه اللجنة فى مناقشة قضايا‬ ‫الشرق األوسط من وجهة نظر أمريكية‪ .‬باإلضافة إلى محاولة إضافة تنوع ثقافى‪ ،‬كان‬ ‫مطلوباً بالتأكيد‪ ،‬عن طريق جعل اللغة العربية إحدى اللغات الرسمية للجنة‪.‬‬ ‫على مدى تاريخ طويل‪ ،‬ساهمت اللجنة داخل النموذج فى إعادة ربط شريحة كبيرة من‬ ‫أعضائها بثقافتهم العربية ولغتهم األم‪ .‬ساعد فى ذلك نخبة من أفضل المحاضرين‬ ‫والمشاركين‪ ،‬الذين سطروا تاريخ اللجنة الرائع‪ .‬ومن واقع إدراكنا لصعوبة المهمة‪،‬‬ ‫حاولنا جاهدين أن نكون على مستوى الحدث‪ ،‬أصبنا قليالً وبالتأكيد أخطأنا كثيراً‪ ،‬أملين‬ ‫أن نكون قد أضفنا‪ ،‬ولو جزءاً صغيراً إلى تاريخ هذه اللجنة المستمر بالتأكيد بعد رحيلنا‪.‬‬

‫نوران شلش‬ ‫إبراهيم الشيخ‬ ‫أحمد الشيخ‬ ‫ميرال أحمد‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫فهرس المواضيع‬ ‫الموضوع األول‪ :‬باكستان ‪ ...‬ودراما اإلنقسام‬ ‫‪-١‬التمهيد‪8 ................................................................................................................................. :‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬

‫منطقتى جنوب ووسط أسيا‪.‬‬

‫‪.2‬‬

‫األهمية اإلستراتيجية للمنطقة للواليات المتحدة‪.‬‬

‫‪-2‬تاريخ باكستان‪١1 ....................................................................................................................... :‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬

‫نشأة باكستان وخلفية الصراعات المصاحبة لذلك‪.‬‬

‫‪.2‬‬

‫نظام الحكم والمراحل التى مر بها‪.‬‬

‫‪-٣‬العالقات الثنائية األمريكية الباكستانية‪١٣ ........................................................................................... :‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬

‫نشأة العالقات وتطورها والتقلبات التى مرت بها وصوالً إلى أحداث ‪ ١١‬سبتمبر‪.‬‬

‫‪.2‬‬

‫تأثيرأحداث ‪ ١١‬سبتمبرالنوعى على العالقات‪.‬‬

‫‪.٣‬‬

‫مراحل التعاون اإلستراتيجى فى الحرب على اإلرهاب والتقلبات األخيرة‪.‬‬

‫‪-٤‬عالقات باكستان الخارجية‪١1 ........................................................................................................ :‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬

‫عالقات باكستان الثنائية مع كلٍ من‪:‬‬ ‫أ‪-‬الصين‬ ‫ب‪-‬الهند‬ ‫ج‪-‬إيران‬

‫‪.2‬‬

‫تأثير كلِ منهم على الواليات المتحدة‪.‬‬

‫‪.٣‬‬

‫الحرب فى أفغانستان ودورباكستان فيها‪.‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫‪- ٥‬ترسانة باكستان النووية وإمكانياتها العسكرية‪2٤ ................................................................................ :‬‬ ‫‪ .١‬تاريخ باكستان النووى‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬إمكانيات باكستان النووية والعسكرية الحالية‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .٣‬المخاوف األمريكية‪.‬‬ ‫‪-1‬المساعدات األمريكية لباكستان‪21 ................................................................................................... :‬‬ ‫‪ .١‬تاريخ تزايد المساعدات‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬األهداف اإلستراتيجية من هذه المساعدات‪ ،‬والمطالبات بوقفها‪.‬‬ ‫‪- ٧‬المشاكل األساسية فى باكستان‪29 ................................................................................................... :‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬ ‫‪.2‬‬ ‫‪.٣‬‬ ‫‪.٤‬‬

‫طالبان فى باكستان وجماعات راديكالية أخرى (القاعدة)‪.‬‬ ‫جماعةالحقانى وتهديداتها اإلرهابية‪.‬‬ ‫تبعات إغتيال آسامه بن الدن‪.‬‬ ‫مشاكل الجمعيات الحقوقيه مع إنتهاكات حقوق اإلنسان‪.‬‬

‫‪-8‬مستقبل العالقات مع باكستان وخيارات الواليات المتحدة اإلستراتيجية‪٣2 ................................................... .‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫الموضوع الثاني‪ :‬العراق‬ ‫أخطاء الماضى‪ ،‬مأساة الحاضر‬ ‫‪ -١‬التمهيد‪٣٣ ................................................................................................................................ :‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬ ‫‪.2‬‬

‫منطقة الشرق األوسط‪.‬‬ ‫أهمية المنطقة اإلستراتيجية للواليات المتحدة‪.‬‬

‫‪ -2‬تاريخ العراق وعالقاته بأمريكا‪٣٥ ................................................................................................... :‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬ ‫‪.2‬‬ ‫‪.٣‬‬

‫خلفية تاريخية عن العراق‪.‬‬ ‫عراق صدام‪.‬‬ ‫تاريخ العالقات الثنائية ما بين الواليات المتحدة والعراق‪.‬‬

‫‪ -٣‬الحرب على العراق‪٣8 ................................................................................................................. :‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬ ‫‪.2‬‬ ‫‪.٣‬‬ ‫‪.٤‬‬ ‫‪.٥‬‬ ‫‪.1‬‬ ‫‪.٧‬‬ ‫‪.8‬‬

‫نظرة عامة لما قبل الحرب و األحداث المؤديه إليها‪.‬‬ ‫أزمة تسليح العراق‪.‬‬ ‫واردات اليورانيوم‪.‬‬ ‫أسلحة الدمار الشامل‪( :‬كيميائية‪ ،‬بيولوجية و الغاز السام)‬ ‫التحضير للحرب و المعارضة لها‪.‬‬ ‫الغزو‪.‬‬ ‫فترة ما بعد الغزو و التوترات مع إيران و تركيا‪.‬‬ ‫اإلنسحاب و إحصائيات هامة‪.‬‬

‫‪ -٤‬عالقات العراق الخارجية ومصالح الواليات المتحدة‪٤٤ .......................................................................... :‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬

‫ل من‪:‬‬ ‫تاريخ عالقات العراق ما قبل الغزو مع ك ٍ‬ ‫أ‪-‬إيران‪.‬‬ ‫ب‪-‬دول مجلس التعاون الخليجى‬

‫‪.2‬‬

‫ل من‪:‬‬ ‫عالقات( عراق ما بعد اإلنسحاب) مع ك ٍ‬ ‫أ‪-‬إيران‪.‬‬ ‫ب‪-‬دول مجلس التعاون الخليجى‪.‬‬ ‫ج‪-‬تركيا‪.‬‬

‫‪.٣‬‬ ‫‪.٤‬‬

‫موقف العراق الغامض من الثورة السورية‪.‬‬ ‫مصالح أمريكا فى منطقة الخليج و تأثير عالقات ( عراق ما بعد اإلنسحاب ) عليها‪.‬‬

‫‪ -٥‬العراق ما بعد اإلنسحاب‪٤9 ............................................................................................................ :‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬

‫نظرة عامة على اإلنقسامات الداخلية العراقية والدور اإليرانى‪.‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫‪.2‬‬ ‫‪.٣‬‬ ‫‪.٤‬‬ ‫‪.٥‬‬ ‫‪.1‬‬ ‫‪.٧‬‬ ‫‪.8‬‬

‫مشاكل العراق الداخلية األساسية‪:‬‬ ‫األمن وتسليحة وتدريبة‪.‬‬ ‫الجماعات اإلرهابية والتفجيرات الدورية‪.‬‬ ‫األكراد ووضعهم التاريخى‪.‬‬ ‫البترول وقوانين التنقيب‪.‬‬ ‫إنتهاكات حقوق اإلنسان‪.‬‬ ‫المساعدات األمريكية وشروطها‪.‬‬

‫‪ -1‬مستقبل العالقات الثنائية وخيارات الواليات المتحدة اإلستراتيجية‪٥٤ ............................................................‬‬

‫‪7‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫باكستان ‪ ...‬ودراما اإلنقسام‬

‫‪ ‬التمهيد‬ ‫لماذا آسيا؟‬ ‫"إذا كان التاريخ يعيد نفسه‪ ،‬ومع ذلك فاألحداث الغيرمتوقعة تتواصل ‪ ...‬فما مدى عجز اإلنسان على التعلم من تجاربه؟" ‪...‬‬ ‫جورج برنارد شو‪ ،‬كاتب مسرحى وناقد سياسى أيرلندى‪.‬‬ ‫قد يختلف المؤرخون على األسباب المباشرة التى أدت الى وقوع أوروبا فى سلسلة من الصراعات العسكرية العنيفة منذ‬ ‫بداية الثورة الصناعية حتى نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية‪ ،‬أكثر الحروب تدميراً فى تاريخ البشرية‪ .‬وإن إختلفوا‪ ،‬فإن حقائق‬ ‫أكاديمية ثابتة تظهر بوضوح للباحثين‪.‬‬ ‫مع بداية الثورة الصناعية شهدت اإل قتصاديات األوروبية معدالت نمو رهيبة وزيادة مطردة فى الثروة مما حفز الدول آنذاك‬ ‫على التوسع فى البحث عن الموارد الكافية لتغذية هذا التحول‪ .‬واكب هذه الثورة زيادة سكانية كبيرة لم تشهدها القارة من قبل‬ ‫وعُدت ترف كبير بعد قرون من األمراض والمجاعات واألوبئة‪ .‬ومع الزيادة السكانية والنمو اإلقتصادى والحاجة الماسة‬ ‫للمزيد من الموارد‪ ،‬بدأت الحقيقة الصعبة فى التجلي أمام قادة الدول‪ :‬المتوفر لن يكفى الجميع‪ .‬وعلى ضوء هذا التجلى ظهر‬ ‫تطور وتوسع فى مجال آخر‪ :‬اآللة العسكرية‪ .‬شهدت نهايات القرن التاسع عشر تسابق مخيف بين الدول األوروبية على‬ ‫تدشين ترسانة عسكرية شاسعة التدمير بمقاييس هذا العصر‪ .‬وقد ال يحتاج الباحث الهاوي مساعدة من خبير إجتماعى لربط‬ ‫كل هذه التطورات بالنزعة الوطنية الزائدة التى القت شعبية كبيرة فى أوروبا مع بدايات القرن الماضى لتصل إلى حد‬ ‫العنصرية (فى تصنيف بعض المحللين) فى ألمانيا النازية‪ .‬نتيجة لكل ما سبق‪ ،‬شهد العالم المتحضر الصراع األعنف فى‬ ‫تاريخه‪.‬‬ ‫يختلف المكان والزمان ولكن الظروف نفسها تتطابق إلى حد يثير الدهشة فى آسيا‪ ،‬ربما هذه المرة على مقياس عشرة‬ ‫أضعاف المرات السابقة‪ ،‬مما يجعل وقوع نزاع فى المنطقة هو إحتمال يُحَتَم دراستهُ‪.‬‬ ‫منطقة جنوب آسيا‪:‬‬ ‫تختلف التعريفات لحدود منطقة جنوب آسيا الجغرافية على حسب الجهة المصنفة والغرض من التصنيف‪ .‬و لكن فى جميع‬ ‫التصنيفات تتضمن المنطقة حدود جغرافية أساسية تتكون من دول‪ :‬بنجالدش‪ ،‬الهند‪ ،‬سريالنكا‪ ،‬نيبال وباكستان‪ ،‬وقد يزيد‬ ‫‪8‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫عليهم أفغانستان وإيران بغرض الدراسات السياسية‪.‬‬

‫[‪]١‬‬

‫يتجاوز عدد السكان فى جنوب آسيا المليار ونصف نسمة أى ما يقارب ربع سكان الكوكب‪ ،‬يعيشون على ‪ ٤.٤‬مليون كيلو‬ ‫متر مربع ما يعادل عُشر مساحة القارة‪ ،‬ما يجعلها من أعلى المناطق فى الكثافة السكانية فى العالم‪ ،‬وبِناءً عليه األكثر‬ ‫تنافسية فى البحث عن الموارد‪ ]2[.‬التنوع العرقى فى المنطقه هو األوسع نطاقً فى العالم بما يقارب األلفين خلفية عرقية‬ ‫مختلفة‪ .‬تعاقب الغزاة والفاتحين على المنطقة عبر العصور مثل اإلغريق والفرس والمسلمين العرب إنتهاءً باإلستعمار‬ ‫البريطانى‪ ،‬كما شهدت المنطقة توافد مستمر من المهاجرين من شرق أوروبا ووسط آسيا‪ ،‬كلٍ مساهم بشكل أو بآخر فى‬ ‫التنوع واإلمتزاج (وأحياناً التضاد) الثقافى المميز للمنطقة‪ .‬ولكن على الرغم من هذا التنوع الكبير‪ ،‬يمكن تقسيم معظم سكان‬ ‫المنطقة إلى مجموعتين لغوتين رئيسيتين‪ :‬الهندو آرية والدرافيديان وكالهما متواجد (باإلضافة إلى جماعات وشعوب‬ ‫أخرى) فى جميع دول المنطقة‪ ]٣[.‬هذا التنوع باإلضافة إلى إختالف العقائد الدينية وظهور الحركات المتشددة والبحث الدائم‬ ‫عن موارد جديدة فى ظل كثافة سكانية هى األعظم‪ ،‬أسباب أسست ومازالت تؤسس أرضاً خصبة لصراعات متراوحة‬ ‫الشدّية‪.‬‬ ‫األهمية اإلستراتيجية للمنطقة‪:‬‬ ‫األهمية اإلستراتيجية ألى منطقة أو بلد هو أمرٌ نسبى بالفطرة‪ ،‬ويعتمد على موقعها الجغرافى وصلته وإرتباطه بمصالح‬ ‫دائمة أو مؤقتة ألطراف متعددة أو مؤثرة على الساحة العالمية‪ .‬دول جنوب آسيا لها أهمية إستراتيجية عالمية كبيرة‪،‬‬ ‫وبالتالى لها أهمية إستراتيجية أمريكية كبيرة‪ .‬األهمية اإلستراتيجية لدول المنطقة تخص دول المنطقة بعضها البعض وتعتبر‬ ‫التجارة وتبادل الموارد هى أهم محددات هذه األهمية التى تمتد لتشمل القوى العظمى فى العالم‪.‬‬ ‫لعقود طويلة إعتُبِرت األهمية اإلستراتيجية للمنطقة نقمة على دولها أكثر منها نعمة‪ .‬فإبان الحرب الباردة‪ ،‬إستُخدِمت دولها‬ ‫كساحة لحروب بالوكالة بين القطبين‪ ،‬فعندما إجتاح اإلتحاد السوفيتى أفغانستان‪ ،‬إستغلت الواليات المتحدة باكستان لمواجهة‬ ‫عدوها األزلى حينها‪ .‬وحينما قامت الحرب على اإلرهاب‪ ،‬غزت الواليات المتحدة أفغانستان عن طريق باكستان‪.‬‬ ‫تقع المنطقة عامةً وباكستان خاصةً بين منافس الواليات المتحدة الصاعد‪ :‬الصين‪ ،‬وبرنامج نووى يؤرقها فى إيران‪،‬‬ ‫مايجعلها األرض المثالية لتساعد الواليات المتحدة فى تحجيم األولى ومواجهة الثانية‪ .‬أضف إلى ذلك إفتقار كلٍ من الهند‬ ‫والصين إلى ال موارد الكافية لتغذية نهضتيهما ووقوع منطقة جنوب أسيا‪ ،‬خاصةً باكستان فى منتصف الطريق التجارى‬ ‫إلمدادهم بتلك الموارد من إيران والشرق األوسط‪ .‬فبرغم وجود طرق أخرى‪ ،‬فإن باكستان هى الحل األكثر تناسباً مع‬ ‫ظروف كلٍ منهما وهو األرخص كذلك‪ .‬وعلى ضوء هذه الحقيقة تحتضن المنطقة صراع نفوذ مستمر بين كلٍ من الصين‬ ‫والهند المتنافستين والواليات المتحدة الباحثة عن إستمرار قيادتها المنفردة للساحة‪.‬‬ ‫من منطلق المصلحة الصينية‪ ،‬المنطقة وفى قلبها باكستان هى الجبهة المطلة على بحر العرب وصلتها األساسية بنفوذها فى‬ ‫المحيط الهندى‪ .‬باإلضافة إلي تأمين التجارة الصينية‪ ،‬فهى موقع أساسى لتثبيت النفوذ الصينى فى محيطها اإلقليمى القريب‬ ‫ومواجهة السياسة األمريكية الدفاعية الجديدة‪.‬‬ ‫كل هذا باإلضافة إلى إهتمام دول مجلس التعاون الخليجى بالمنطقة عامةً وباكستان خاصة‪ ً،‬لخلق جبهة قوية مناوئة وشاغلة‬ ‫إليران للحفا على نفوذ أمراء وملوك الخليج من التأثير السلبى لثنائية إيران والواليات المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫‪1"Asia-Pacific POPIN Consultative Workshop Report" un.org.‬‬ ‫‪2Biello, D "Another Inconvenient Truth: The World's Growing Population Poses a Malthusian Dilemma" scientificamerican.com.‬‬ ‫‪http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=growing-population-poses-malthusian-dilemma (accessed october 2. 2009).‬‬ ‫) ‪3"Aryans and Dravidians - A controversial issue" adaniel.tripod.com. http://adaniel.tripod.com/aryans.htm (accessed‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫المنطقة كذلك هى نافذة وسط آسيا‪ ،‬الغنية بالبترول والغاز والموارد المتنوعة‪ ،‬األساسية بالنسبة للنمو اإلقتصادى العالمى‪،‬‬ ‫للتصدير‪ .‬فهذه الدول من بقايا اإلتحاد السوفيتى‪ ،‬تعتبر حبيسة وغير مطلة على بحور أو مسالك مائية أساسية‪ .‬ويتحكم موقع‬ ‫ل من الصين والهند‪ ،‬فى توزيع تلك الثروة على القوى العالمية‬ ‫باكستان‪ ،‬بموانئه على المحيط الهندى وحدوده المشتركة مع ك ٍ‬ ‫المستهلكة‪.‬‬ ‫أهمية موقع جنوب أسيا هى أهمية نسبية معتمدة فى األساس على الدول المستفيدة‪ ،‬فإذا دُرس الموقع من وجهة نظر‬ ‫أمريكية‪ ،‬سيكون أرضاً ممتازة فى الحفا على نفوذ أمريكا وتقويته باإلضافة إلى مواجهة أعدائها الرئيسيين فى المنطقة‬ ‫كطالبان‪ ،‬مع إمكانية كبح جماح منافسيها اإلقصاديين فى الصين وفتح سوق كبرى لتصدير منتجاتها فى الهند فى نفس‬ ‫الوقت‪.‬‬ ‫ستتلخص أهميت ُه فى‪:‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬ ‫‪.2‬‬ ‫‪.٣‬‬ ‫‪.٤‬‬ ‫‪.٥‬‬

‫مواجهة البرنامج النووى اإليرانى‪.‬‬ ‫كبح جماح الصعود الصينى‪.‬‬ ‫مواجهة اإلرهاب فى أفغانستان‪.‬‬ ‫التحكم فى التجارة فى المنطقة‪ ،‬خاصةَ الواردات من وسط آسيا‪.‬‬ ‫[‪]٤‬‬ ‫فتح سوق فى الهند لتسويق منتجات وأسلحة أمريكية‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬تاريخ باكستان‬ ‫نشأة باكستان وخلفية الصراعات المصاحبة لذلك‪:‬‬ ‫شهدت بداية القرن العشرين ظهور العديد من الحركات اإلنفصالية وكان من أهمها حزباً جمع العديد من قادة الهند‬ ‫المسلمين والهندوس أبرزهم محمد علي جناح وأحمد خان وجواهر الل نهرو وسمي الحزب ب "المؤتمر القومى‬ ‫الهندى"‪،‬إال أنه سرعان ما نشبت الخالفات بين الطرفين حينما عارض القاده الهندوس إبقاء اللغة األردية اللغة الرسمية في‬ ‫االدارات الحكومية والمحاكم والمدارس في المناطق الشمالية الغربية من الهند والتي يتكلم غالبية سكانها لغة األردو فقام‬ ‫أحمد خان بدعوة المسلمين لعدم االشتراك في حزب المؤتمر‪ ،‬وقام بتأسيس آخر بديال سُمّي ب" المؤتمر التعليمي‬ ‫اإلسالمي" ثم انبثق عنه في عام ‪ ١911‬م‪" ،‬حزب الرابطة اإلسالمية" وكان من أهم مطالبه قيام دولة خاصة للمسلمين‪،‬‬ ‫كما قررّ محمد علي جناح أن يقطع عالقته بحزب المؤتمر القومي الهندي نهائياً في العام ‪ ١921‬م‪ ،‬بعد أن شغل منصب‬ ‫سكرتير رئيس الحزب ليترأس حزب الرابطة اإلسالمية وليبدأ مطالبته بتشريع سلسلة قوانين تضمن للمسلمين حماية دينهم‬ ‫ولغتهم األصلية‪ ،‬ثم صعّد مطالبه في اجتماع للرابطة بمدينة الهور عام ‪١9٤1‬م‪ ،‬دعا فيه إلى تقسيم الهند إلى كيانين هما‬ ‫الهند وباكستان على أن تضم األخيرة كل مسلمي الهند‪ ،‬عُرف هذا اإلعالن فيما بعد بقرار الهور‪.‬‬ ‫كان من الطبيعي أن يلقى هذا اإلعالن ترحيبا واسعا من الهنود المسلمين وبسببه وقعت العديد من المصادمات بين‬ ‫المسلمين والهندوس تزايدت تدريجيا بشكل دموي عنيف أجبر كلٍ من بريطانيا وحزب المؤتمر الهندي أن يوافقا على‬ ‫عملية التقسيم وبالفعل في الرابع عشرمن أغسطس من العام ‪١9٤٧‬م‪ ،‬أصبحت باكستان دولة مستقلة من دول رابطة‬ ‫‪4K. Niazi, S "Geo-strategic importance of South Asian States" Daily Mail (Pakistan), August 16, 2010‬‬

‫‪11‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫الشعوب البريطانية (الكومنولث)‪ ،‬كما حصلت الهند على استقاللها في اليوم التالي لهذا التاريخ‪ ،‬وقد أصبح محمد علي‬ ‫[‪]٥‬‬ ‫جناح الذي يعتبر مؤسس دولة باكستان أول رئيس حكومة في باكستان‪.‬‬ ‫نظام الحكم‪:‬‬ ‫كما هو واضح مما سبق أن باكستان نالت اسقاللها عن طريق النضال الديمقراطي والدستورى مختلطاً بالديمقراطية‬ ‫البرلمانية‪ ،‬وبعد عدة هفوات دستورية منذ عام ‪١9٥1‬م عادت باكستان إلى هذا الشكل من نظام الحكم كما ينص دستور‬ ‫جمهورية باكستان اإلسالمية المعتمد عام ‪١98٥‬م‪ ":‬نظام الحكم برلماني فيدرالي(اتحادي) مع الرئيس كرئيس للدولة‬ ‫ورئيس وزراء منتخب شعبيا كرئيس للحكومة‪".‬‬ ‫الرئيس‪ ،‬تماشياً مع النص الدستوري أن دين الدولة هو اإلسالم‪ ،‬يجب أن يكون مسلم‪ .‬ينتخب لمدة خمس سنوات من قبل‬ ‫هيئة انتخابية تتكون من أعضاء من مجلس الشيوخ والجمعية الوطنية وأعضاء مجالس المحافظات‪ ،‬ولكن ليس ألكثر من‬ ‫واليتين متتاليتين‪ .‬يجوز للرئيس االستقالة‪ ،‬ويجوز عزله من منصبه لعدم القدرة أو سوء السلوك اإلجمالي بتصويت ثلثي‬ ‫أعضاء البرلمان‪ .‬الرئيس يتصرف عادة بناء على نصيحة رئيس الوزراء ولكن لديه الصالحيات المتبقية الهامة‪ ،‬وله‬ ‫سلطة حل "الجمعية الوطنية "‪ .‬أما بالنسبة للسلطة التشريعية فتنقسم لغرفتين هما مجلس الشيوخ ومجلس النواب (الجمعية‬ ‫الوطنية)‪ ،‬واألخيرة هى الغرفة األدنى‪ .‬كال الغرفتين مع الرئيس يشكلون مجتمعين مجلس الشورى‪ ،‬المؤسسة التشريعية‬ ‫العليا‪.‬‬ ‫دراما اإلنقسام‪:‬‬ ‫أيوب خان‬ ‫في العام ‪١9٥8‬م‪ ،‬قام الجنرال أيوب خان بأول إنقالب عسكرى في تاريخ البالد بدعم من الواليات المتحدة األميركية‪،‬‬ ‫شهد حكم أيوب خان العديد من اإلصالحات اإلقتصادية مما أدى إلى إرتفاع الخط البيانى اإلقتصادى للبالد نسبياً‪ ،‬كما تمّ‬ ‫نقل العاصمة من كراتشى إلى إسالمآباد‪ .‬ولكن بإشتعال الحرب الهندية الباكستانية الثانية عام ‪١91٥‬م‪ ،‬أعلن أيوب خان‬ ‫الجهاد المقدس ضد الهند ولكن لم يستطع الجيش الباكستانى تحقيق نصر حاسم فى المعركة مما اضطر أيوب خان إلى‬ ‫توقيع اتفاقية سالم مع الجانب الهندى في العام ‪١911‬م عرفت بإتفاقية طشقند‪ ،‬إنتقد كثيرون هذه اإلتفاقية وإتهموا أيوب‬ ‫خان ب تحويل النصر في أرض المعركة إلى هزيمة على طاولة المفاوضات وبالذات وزير خارجيته وذراعه اليمنى ذو‬ ‫الفقار علي بوتو الذي ترك الحكومة رداَ على تصرفات أيوب خان وقام بتأسيس حزب الشعب الباكستاني في العام ‪١91٧‬م‬ ‫وذلك بهدف إقصاء أيوب خان عن السلطة‪ .‬وفي نهاية عام ‪١918‬م وصل إستياء الشعب من حكومة أيوب خان مداه‪ ،‬كما‬ ‫تحالفت العديد من القوى السياسية ضده وكان أبرزهم المودودي الذي عاد فعارض حكمه بسبب عقده اتفاقية طشقند‪ ،‬ولم‬ ‫يكن أمام أيوب خان إال أن يترك منصبه‪ ،‬فقدم استقالته في العام ‪١919‬م ليتولى السلطة بعده قائد أركان الجيش يحيى خان‪.‬‬ ‫يحيى خان‬ ‫تولى يحيى خان الحكم وسط العديد من المشاكل واألخطار التي أصبحت تهدد الكيان الباكستاني بالوجود فما إن إنتهت‬ ‫الحرب الهندية الباكستانية في العام ‪١911‬م‪ ،‬حتى بدأت مشكلة باكستان الشرقية بالتصاعد‪ ،‬هذه المشكلة التي بدأت في‬ ‫العام ‪ ١9٥2‬م بمطالبات أهل باكستان الشرقية ذات األغلبية البنغالية بإحترام حقوقهم الثقافية والعددية‪ ،‬وذلك بعد أن أعلن‬ ‫محمد علي جناح أمام حشد ضخم من السكان البنغال في دكا‪ ،‬عاصمة باكستان الشرقية آنذاك‪ ،‬أن األردية ستكون هي اللغة‬ ‫الرسمية الوحيدة في باكستان‪ .‬تصاعدت المطالبات البنغالية‪ .‬وإضطر الرئيس يحيى خان للسفر إلى الجناح الشرقي لتهدئة‬ ‫‪5"Persecution Of The Ahmadiyya Community In Pakistan: An Analysis Under International Law" the persecution.‬‬ ‫) ‪https://www.thepersecution.org/archive/aiul_2.html (accessed‬‬

‫‪11‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫األوضاع فلم يفلح‪ ،‬وإعتُقل مجيب الرحمن‪ ،‬ألنه أعلن قيام دولة بنجالديش في ‪ 21‬مارس ‪١9٧١‬م‪ .‬وفي أثناء ذلك توجهت‬ ‫عناصر إنفصالية بنجالدشية أغلبها من الهندوس إلى الهند‪ ،‬وبدأت العمل ضد باكستان‪ ،‬وقُدّر هؤالء بنحو تسعة ماليين‪ ،‬ثم‬ ‫قامت الهند بالتعاون مع هؤالء االنفصاليين بالهجوم على باكستان‪ ،‬ثم إشتعلت الحرب بين الهند وباكستان على الحدود‬ ‫الشرقية والغر بية للبلدين‪ ،‬وانتهت المعارك بهزيمة كبيرة لباكستان‪ ،‬وتوقيع معاهدة إستسالم‪ .‬أدى هذا القتال الدامي إلى‬ ‫وفاة أكثر من مليون شخص كما فقدت باكستان حوالي سُبع مساحتها وما يزيد على نصف عدد سكانها‪ ،‬تقدم يحيى خان‬ ‫بإستقالته بعد مرور عدة أيام على وقوع هذه األحداث‪ ،‬ثم خلفه ذو الفقار علي بوتو‪.‬‬ ‫ذو الفقار علي بوتو‬ ‫ذو الفقار علي بوتو الذي فاز حزبه بأغلبية األصوات في باكستان الغربية أثناء اإلنتخابات البرلمانية التي كانت قد جرت‬ ‫في ‪١9٧1‬م‪ .‬وكان أول ما فعله أن أطلق سراح مجيب الرحمن الذي أصبح رئيساً لهذه الدولة الوليدة‪ ،‬وكان ذلك مقابل‬ ‫اإلفراج عن حوالي ‪ 92‬ألف أسير باكستاني لدى البنغاليين والهنود‪ .‬حتى كانت انتخابات العام ‪١9٧٧‬م‪ ،‬والتي زيّفت فيها‬ ‫حكومة بوتو االنتخابات وفقاً لرأى المعارضة آنذاك‪ ،‬فكانت هذه الخطوة الشعرة التي قصمت ظهر البعير حيث أعلنت‬ ‫العديد من األحزاب رفضها لنتائج االنتخابات وعلى رأسها الجماعة اإلسالمية‪ ،‬مما أدى إلى حدوث فوضى عارمة نكّل‬ ‫فيها بوتو بخصومه – وخاصةً اإلسالميين منهم – الذين إنتقدوا توجهاته اإلشتراكية العلمانية‪ .‬ولما زادت حدة‬ ‫االضطرابات في البالد‪ ،‬وتدهور الوضع السياسي‪ ،‬دعا الرئيس بوتو الجيش إلى التدخل لمواجهة أعمال العنف‪ ،‬وقمع‬ ‫المظاهرات وتأييد نظامه‪ ،‬إال أن بعض ضباط الجيش ‪ -‬خاصة القادمين من إقليم البنجاب ‪ -‬رفضوا قمع المظاهرات‬ ‫واإلصطدام بالشعب وإطالق النار على المتظاهرين‪ ،‬وكانت تلك النواة التي هيأت لضياء الحق فرصة القيام بإنقالب‬ ‫عسكري أبيض ضد الرئيس بوتو في العام ‪١9٧٧‬م‪.‬‬ ‫انقالب عسكري بقيادة ضياء الحق ‪١9٧٧‬م‬ ‫أعلن ضياء الحق أن عودة الحكم المدني لباكستان ستكون بأسرع ما يمكن‪ ،‬وأكد أن الجيش ليست له مطامع سياسية‪ ،‬وأنه‬ ‫سيحتفظ بالسلطة لحين إجراء االنتخابات‪ .‬ورغم وعوده المتكررة فإنه لم يجري اإلنتخابات‪ .‬قدم الجنرال ضياء الحق "ذو‬ ‫الفقار علي بوتو" إلى المحاكمة بتهمة األمر بقتل أحد المعارضين‪ ،‬وانتهى األمر بإعدام بوتو في العام‪١9٧9‬م‪ ،‬رغم‬ ‫اإلستياء العالمي الشديد‪.‬‬ ‫عرضت واشنطن على ضياء الحق شراء بعض الدبابات األمريكية‪ ،‬وأحضرت بعضها إلى باكستان لرؤيتها ومعرفة‬ ‫مزاياها القتالية على الطبيعة‪ ،‬وتحدد يوم ‪ ١٧‬أغسطس ‪١988‬م‪ ،‬موعدًا الختبار هذه الدبابات‪ .‬فخرج ضياء الحق وبعض‬ ‫كبار قادته‪ ،‬يرافقهم السفير األمريكي في باكستان أرنولد رافيل والجنرال األمريكي هربرت واسوم وكانت الرحلة في‬ ‫منتهى السرية‪ .‬بعد معاينة الدبابات‪ ،‬إنتقل الرئيس ومرافقيه إلى مطار بهاوالبور لينتقلوا منه إلى مطار راولبندي وإستقلوا‬ ‫طائرة خاصة‪ .‬وما إن أقلعت الطائرة‪ ،‬حتى سقطت محترقة‪ .‬وحسب الدستور الباكستاني تسلم غالم إسحاق خان رئيس‬ ‫الجمعية الوطنية رئاسة الدولة مؤقتًا ريثما تتم إنتخابات جديدة‪.‬‬ ‫مابعد مقتل بوتو وتولّي ابنته بينظير حزب الشعب‬ ‫تنافست جميع القوى السياسية الباكستانية بما فيها الجماعة اإلسالمية في انتخابات العام ‪١988‬م‪ ،‬والتي أسفرت عن نجاح‬ ‫حزب الشعب بأغلبية قليلة بزعامة بي نظير بوتو التي ترأست الحكومة فكانت بذلك أول امرأة تستلم هكذا منصب في‬ ‫العالم اإلسالمي‪ .‬تميّز حكم بي نظير بوتو بالعديد من المشكالت اإلقتصادية التي لم تستطع إدارتها بفعالية باإلضافة إلى‬ ‫إنتشار الفساد حيث دارت الشكوك حول زوجها آصف علي زرداري‪ ،‬الذي يعتبر واحداً من أغنى خمسة رجال في‬ ‫باكستان‪ ،‬أدى ذلك في النهاية إلى أن يقوم رئيس الدولة إسحاق خان بإقالتها وذلك في العام ‪١991‬م‪ .‬فقد تدخلت حكومتها‬ ‫بشكل سافر في الجهاد األفغاني‪.‬‬ ‫إنقالب عسكري بقيادة برويز مشرف‬ ‫عاد نواز شريف لرئاسة الحكومة نتيجة إنتخابات العام ‪ ١99٧‬م وبقي في منصبه إلى أن أطاح قائد الجيش الجنرال برويز‬ ‫‪12‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫مشرف بحكومة شريف المدنية بعد خالف بينهما فحلّ البرلمان وأعلن حالة الطوارئ في البالد كما إتهمت حكومة مشرّف‪،‬‬ ‫نواز شريف‪ ،‬بالخيانة العظمى فتمّ نفيه إلى المملكة العربية السعودية‪ .‬أعاد مشرّف بإنقالبه هذا الجيش إلى سدة الحكم بعد‬ ‫غياب زاد عن عشر سنوات أي منذ موت الجنرال ضياء الحق في العام ‪١988‬م‪ ،‬عارض الغرب هذا االنقالب وقاطع‬ ‫حكومة مشرّف بدايةً مما أدى إلى آثار إقتصادية مدمرة على بنية اإلقتصاد الباكستاني المنهك أساساً حيث إستلم مشرّف‬ ‫الحكم والدين العام في باكستان يقارب ‪ ٣2‬مليار دوالر‪ .‬حدث التحوّل الكبير في موقف الغرب من مشرّف وحكومته بعد أن‬ ‫ل‬ ‫سهل هذا األخير اإلطاحة بنظام طالبان في أفغانستان وتحويله األراضي الباكستانية إلى قاعدة لضرب الجاراألفغاني وك ّ‬ ‫من يتعاطف معه من أبناء باكستان وبالذات أهالي منطقة القبائل المتضامنة تاريخياً مع األفغان‪ ،‬أدى ذلك إلى غليان الشارع‬ ‫[‪[1‬‬ ‫الباكستاني ضد سياسات مشرّف المتعاونة مع القوات األميركية وكان على رأس المعارضين حينها الجماعة اإلسالمية‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬العالقات الثنائية األمريكية الباكستانية‬ ‫نشأة العالقات وتطورها والتقلبات التى مرت بها وصو ًال إلى أحداث ‪ ١١‬سبتمبر‪:‬‬ ‫تعتبر العالقات األمريكية الباكستانية من أقدم العالقات في تاريخ باكستان حيث بدأت العالقات بين البلدين في أكتوبر من‬ ‫العام ‪١9٤٧‬م‪ ،‬اي بعد حوالي شهرين من قيام الدولة الباكستانية واعتمدت العالقات في األساس على المساعدات‬ ‫اإل قتصادية والعسكرية التي قدمتها الواليات المتحدة لباكستان‪ ،‬تميزت العالقات الثنائية بين البلدين بالعديد من التقلبات‬ ‫فتكون في أوجها تارة وتكون في الحضيض تارة ‪.‬‬ ‫في حقبة الخمسينات من القرن الماضي كانت باكستان من أقوى حلفاء الواليات المتحدة في الحرب الباردة إلحتواء التوسع‬ ‫السوفيتى‪ ]٧[.‬وبعد اختيار الهند لسياسة عدم اإلنحياز اتجهت الواليات المتحدة لباكستان لوقف التوسع الشيوعي‪ .‬ومع ذلك‬ ‫مع حقبة الستينيات تدهورت العالقات بين البلدين خاصة بعد دعم الواليات المتحدة للهند في حربها مع الصين وفي تلك‬ ‫اآلونة اتجهت باكستان لطلب المساعدة من الصين‪.‬‬ ‫وفي بداية السبعينيات تحديدا في الفترة من‪١9٧1‬م حتى ‪١9٧١‬م‪ ،‬بدأت العالقات في التحسن شيئا فشيئا خاصة بعد مساعدة‬ ‫باكستان فى تحسين العالقات بين الواليات المتحدة وجمهورية الصين الشعبية وافتتاح السفارة األمريكية في بكين‪ ،‬ولكن لم‬ ‫يدم الربيع األمريكى الباكستانى طويال فلقد تدهورت العالقات مرة أخرى بحلول عام ‪١9٧٧‬م‪ ،‬بعدما قامت مجموعة من‬ ‫المتطرفين بإضرام النار في السفارة األمريكية في إسالم أباد‪ .‬استمر التوتر في العالقات حتى نهاية العقد حيث قامت‬ ‫االدارة االمريكية برئاسة كارتر بفرض عقوبات على باكستان وإلغاء المعونات االقتصادية والعسكرية في ‪١9٧9‬م‪ ،‬وذلك‬ ‫[‪]8‬‬ ‫بسبب تطوير باكستان لبرنامجها النووي‪.‬‬ ‫بالرغم من اضمحاللها الشديد عادت العالقات مرة أخرى في بداية ‪١981‬م‪ ،‬عقب الغزو السوفيتي ألفغانستان في ديسمبر‬ ‫‪١9٧9‬م ‪ ،‬وعاد التحالف بين باكستان والواليات المتحدة مرة اخرى حيث اختارت الواليات المتحدة مساعدة باكستان في‬

‫‪6"Pakistan the government" mongabay. http://www.mongabay.com/reference/country_studies/pakistan/GOVERNMENT.html‬‬ ‫‪(accessed 16.11.2012).‬‬ ‫‪7 Robert G. Wirsing, “Precarious Partnership: Pakistan’s Response to U.S. Security Policies,” Asian Affairs, an American Review,‬‬ ‫‪Summer 2003, p. 70.‬‬ ‫‪8 Cohen, Stephen P..The Idea of Pakistan.washington D.C., United States of America: Brookings Institution Press, 2004/p.131.‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫حربها الخفية في أفغانستان‪ ]9[.‬حيث كانت باكستان تساعد الجماعات االسالمية في أفغانستان وتقدم لها المساعدات‬ ‫العسكرية والتدريب‪ .‬جاءت الحرب على االتحاد السوفيتي لتهمش الكثير من الموضوعات محل الجدل والنقاش بين‬ ‫الواليات المتحدة وباكستان منها ملف باكستان النووي ودفع باكستان للمزيد من الديمقراطية وايقاف تهريب المخدرات‪.‬‬ ‫بعد انسحاب اإلتحاد السوفيتي من أفغانستان في ‪١989‬م‪ ،‬وتحسن العالقات بين الواليات المتحدة واإلتحاد السوفيتي لم يعد‬ ‫هناك الكثير من المصالح للواليات المتحدة في تلك المنطقة وسرعان ما إضمحلت العالقات بينها وبين باكستان ثانية حيث‬ ‫كان السبب الوجيه في تجمع البلدين هو الحرب على اإلتحاد السوفيتي وبدأت العقوبات ثانية بذريعة إمتالك باكستان‬ ‫لألسلحة النووية‪ ،‬حيث رفض بوش األب أن يشهد بعدم إمتالك باكستان لتلك األسلحة‪ ،‬مانحاً الكونجرس الضوء األخضر‬ ‫[‪[١1‬‬ ‫لقطع المساعدات عن باكستان‪ ،‬فيما عرف بتعديل بريسلر‪.‬‬ ‫في مايو‪١998‬م‪ ،‬فرضت الواليات المتحدة مجموعة اخرى من العقوبات على باكستان عقب مجموعة من اإلختبارات‬ ‫النووية‪ ،‬وأخيرا مجموعة أخرى من العقوبات سُميت بالعقوبات الديمقراطية في ‪١999‬م‪ ،‬بعد إستيالء مشرف على‬ ‫الحكومة وإستمرت العالقات مضمحلة‪ ،‬لتنقلب رأسا على عقب بعد أحداث الحادي عشر من سبتمبر وإعالن الواليات‬ ‫المتحدة بدء الحرب على اإلرهاب‪.‬‬ ‫تأثير أحداث ‪ ١١‬سبتمبر النوعى على العالقات‪:‬‬ ‫قبل الهجمات كان إهتمام الواليات المتحدة الوحيد فى باكستان هو إنتقاد كلٍ من برنامجها النووى‪ ،‬ودعمها لحكومة طالبان‬ ‫فى أفغانستان‪ .‬حيث كانت ترى باكستان فى حكومة طالبان الحليف فى محاولة تعديل ميزان القوى فى مواجهة الهند‪.‬‬ ‫إكتسبت باكستان أهمية إستراتيجية قصوى بالنسبة للواليات المتحدة بعد هجمات ‪ ١١‬سبتمبر وإعالن الواليات المتحدة‬ ‫الحرب على اإلرهاب‪ .‬كان الالعب الرئيسى للواليات المتحدة فى المنطقة قبل هذه الهجمات ومُمَرر أجندتها والمحافظ‬ ‫على مصالحها هو الهند‪ ،‬ولكن بعد هذه الهجمات صعدت باكستان لتتبوأ مقعد الصدارة فى إهتمامات الواليات المتحدة‬ ‫[‪[١١‬‬ ‫ضعَت مشاريع تعاون أمريكى‪-‬هندى على قائمة اإلنتظار‪.‬‬ ‫اإلقليميه‪ ،‬وبالتالى وُ ِ‬ ‫بعد ساعات قليلة من الهجمات إتجهت إدارة بوش نحو حكومة مشرف فى إسالم أباد‪ ،‬وعرضت عليها الخيار األزلى بين‬ ‫(العصا والجزرة)‪ .‬كانت حكومة الهند قد أعلنت سلفاً دعمها ألي تحرك أمريكى فى المنطقة‪ ،‬ولكن موقع باكستان‬ ‫الجيوإستراتيجى كان هو األهم فى المنطقة‪ ،‬فلم يكن الخيار صعباً من وجهة نظر حكومة مشرف فى إسالم أباد بين‬ ‫الوقوف وحدها أمام الواليات المتحدة والمخاطرة بعقوبات إقتصادية سيكون تأثيرها مضمون على إقتصاد باكستانى‬ ‫متهاوى أصالً‪ ،‬ناهيك عن القوة السياسية واإلقتصادية التى ستكتسبها الهند كونها الحليف األساسى والوحيد للواليات‬ ‫المتحدة فى المنطقة فى صراع (القرن الجديد) كما وصفه جورج دبليو بوش‪ ،‬ما كان سيعبث بميزان القوى الباكستانى‪-‬‬ ‫الهندى‪ ،‬وهو الميزان األهم من وجهة نظر إستراتيجية باكستانية‪ ،‬كان هذا اإلختيار‪ ،‬أو اإلنضمام إلى قائمة المستفيدين من‬ ‫عروض الواليات المتحدة السخية باإلنضمام إلى الحرب على اإلرهاب‪ ،‬وهى قائمة كانت تتناسب طردياً مع عامل‬ ‫[‪[١2‬‬ ‫الزمن‪.‬‬ ‫تعددت مطالب الواليات المتحدة من باكستان بعد نجاح إدارة بوش فى إقناع العالم بصلة أفغانستان بالهجمات اإلرهابية‪.‬‬ ‫بدايةً بتعاون عسكرى وإستخباراتى كامل من أجل اإلجتياح المرتقب‪ ،‬ثم وقف إلمدادات الوقود والمتطوعين عبر أراضيها‬ ‫‪9 Samina Ahmed, “The United States and Terrorism in Southwest Asia: September 11 and Beyond,” International Security,‬‬ ‫‪Winter 2001/2, p. 80.‬‬ ‫‪11 Jeffrey Goldberg and Marc Ambinder, The Ally From Hell The Atlantic December 2011‬‬ ‫‪11 Scott, D. "Strategic Imperatives of India as an Emerging Player in Pacific Asia ", Brunel University, 2007.‬‬ ‫‪12 Cohen, S. P. "A Distant Region Takes Center Stage: Pulling Up the Roots of Terrorism in South Asia" Brookings, 2002‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫ألفغانستان‪ ،‬و وقف كل أشكال الدعم لحكومة طالبان‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى اإلعالن الفورى عن إدانتهم التامة لهجمات ‪١١‬‬ ‫سبتمبر‪ .‬تحت قيادة مشرف وفرت باكستان للواليات المتحدة دعماً هائالً فى الحرب على أفغانستان‪ ،‬التى كانت ستستحيل‬ ‫فى غياب هذا الدعم‪ .‬إستُخدِمت أرض باكستان من قِبل أمريكا وحلفائها كقاعدة إنطالق وإمداد في اإلجتياح‪ ،‬تم نقل أو إقالة‬ ‫كل الضباط فى الجيش الباكستانى الذين كانوا مسؤلين عن توفير الدعم لطالبان‪ ،‬تم وقف التعاون مع كل الجماعات‬ ‫الجهادية وعلى رأسها طالبان بالطبع بعدما كانت باكستان هى راعيهم الرئيسى‪.‬‬ ‫فى مقابل هذا التحول الدرامى‪ ،‬قامت واشنطن برفع كل أشكال العقوبات التى وُقعت من قبل على باكستان كرد على‬ ‫نشاطها النووى ودعمها للقبائل المتنازعة فى كشمير‪ .‬كما تم رفع كل أشكال العقوبات والضغوط على باكستان لحثها على‬ ‫تطبيق الديموقراطية بعد اإلنقالب العسكرى الذى قام به مشرف نفسه فى ‪١999‬م‪ .‬وعلى الناحية األخرى تم منح باكستان‬ ‫مليار دوالر منحه غير قابلة للرد للمساعدةاإلقصادية [‪ . [١٣‬بإعتراف مشرف نفسه‪ ،‬تم منح باكستان جوائز على إصطيادها‬ ‫أشخاص ترغب واشنطن فيهم وتسليمهم إليها [‪ . ].١٤‬تتلقى باكستان منذ غزو أفغانستان وحتى اليوم مساعدات سنوية ثابتة‬ ‫[‪[١1[]١٥‬‬ ‫تقدر ب‪ ٣.2‬مليار دوالر‪.‬‬ ‫مراحل التعاون اإلستراتيجى فى الحرب على اإلرهاب والتقلبات األخيرة‪:‬‬ ‫يعتمد حلف الناتو على خطوط برية وجوية تمر في األراضي الباكستانية إليصال الدعم لقواته الموجودة في‬ ‫أفغانستان‪ .‬عادة ما يتم إغالق الخطوط البرية بسب هجمات المتطرفين أو بواسطة الحكومة الباكستانية نفسها في محاوالت‬ ‫واضحة لتأكيد نفوذ إسالم آباد وعدم رضاها عن السياسات األمريكية‪ .‬في ‪2118‬م‪ ،‬بدأ المتطرفون التركيز على إعاقة‬ ‫خطوط اإلمداد المارة فى منطقة ممر خيبر والذي يصل يشاور بجالل آباد‪ .‬تلك الهجمات أسفرت عن تدمير الكثير من‬ ‫شاحنات نقل الوقود ومقتل قائديها الباكستانيين‪.‬‬ ‫ورداً على ذلك بدأت الواليات المتحدة البحث عن خطوط بديلة تمر من وسط آسيا وروسيا‪ .‬وفي منتصف ‪21١1‬م‪،‬‬ ‫إستطاعت أن تنقل الواليات المتحدة أكثر من نصف إمدادات حلف الناتو عن طريق شبكة التوزيع الشمالية "ان دي ان"‬ ‫ولكن يفضل المسئولين األمريكيين النقل عن طريق باكستان فيما يخص الدعم اللوجيستي‪.‬‬ ‫في ‪ ١٤‬سبتمبر ‪2119‬م‪ ،‬إعترف الرئيس الباكستاني السابق بيرفيز مشرف أن المساعدات األمريكية لباكستان حادت عن‬ ‫سببها الرئيسي وهو الحرب على طالبان إلى اإلستعداد للحرب على الهند[‪ .[١٧‬أبدت الواليات المتحدة غضبها تجاه تلك‬ ‫التصرفات الباكستانية ومع ذالك صرح مشرف قائال‪" :‬أينما يكون هناك تهديد لباكستان سوف تستخدم تلك المعدات إذا جاء‬ ‫التهديد من القاعدة أو طالبان سنستخدمها هناك وإذا كان التهديد من الهند فبكل تأكيد ستستخدم هناك"‪ .‬في أواخر ‪2119‬م‪،‬‬ ‫قامت وزيرة الخارجية االمريكية هيالري كلينتون بإلقاء خطاب في باكستان عن الحرب ضد المتطرفين وقالت‪":‬نحن‬ ‫ندعم الجيش الباكستاني في قتالهم الشجاع ونلتزم أيضا بالوقوف جنباً إلى جنب مع الشعب الباكستاني في قتالهم"[‪.[١8‬‬ ‫في منتصف فبراير‪21١1‬م‪ ،‬بعدإلقاء القبض على ثاني أهم عنصر في طالبان عبدالغني بارادار في باكستان بواسطة القوات‬ ‫‪13 Shrivastava, S. "http://www.thewoU.S.and Pakistan not allies but enemies" the world reporter.‬‬ ‫‪http://www.theworldreporter.com/2010/10/us-and-pakistan-not-allies-but-enemies.html (accessed 2 October 2010).‬‬ ‫‪14 "Bounties paid for terror suspects" amnesty. http://www.amnesty.org.au/hrs/comments/2167 (accessed 16 January 2007).‬‬ ‫‪15 Rhode, D. "U.S. Officials See Waste in Billions Sent to Pakistan" New York Times, 24 December, 2007.‬‬ ‫‪16Ibrahim, A. "U.S. aid to Pakistan - U.S. taxpayers have funded Pakistani corruption", Harvard University, 2009.‬‬ ‫‪17 Musharraf admits U.S. aid diverted"BBC News. September 14, 2009. Retrieved May 20, 2010‬‬ ‫‪18 "Pakistan mourns bomb victims - Central & South Asia". Al Jazeera English. 2009-10-29. Retrieved 2011-03-17‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫الباكستانية‪ .‬رحب البيت االبيض بالعملية وقال المتحدث الرسمي بالبيت االبيض روبرت جبس ‪":‬انه لنجاح كبير يبلور‬ ‫المجهودات المشتركة بيبن البلدين في المنطقة"[‪ . [١9‬في مارس‪ ،‬صرح ريتشارد هولبروك مبعوث الواليات المتحدة بأن‬ ‫[‪[21‬‬ ‫العالقات األمريكية الباكستانية شهدت تحسن مهم تحت قيادة الرئيس اوباما‪.‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫عالقات باكستان الخارجية‬

‫العالقات الباكستانية الصينية‪:‬‬ ‫على الرغم من التباين األيديولوجى الحاد بين األُطر الدستورية والسياسية الحاكمة للنظامين السياسيين في الصين‬ ‫وباكستان – حيث تتبنى الصين األيدلوجية الشيوعية بينما باكستان جمهورية إسالمية – فإن البلدين حافظا على عالقات‬ ‫جيدة منذ الخمسينات‪.‬‬ ‫كانت باكستان الدولة اإلسالمية األ ولى والثالثة غير الشيوعية التى تعترف بجمهورية الصين‪ ،‬وقد بدأ تنامى العالقات بين‬ ‫البلدين عام ‪١911‬م‪ ،‬عندما أيدت باكستان مقعد الصين باألمم المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫وخالل الصراع بين الصين والهند ‪١912‬م‪ ،‬هرعت الواليات المتحدة األمريكية لتقديم المساعدات العسكرية للهند مما‬ ‫إعتبرته باكستان يضر بمصالحها األمنية ومن هنا زاد التقارب في المصالح األمنية بين باكستان والصين‪ ،‬وبدورها أيدت‬ ‫الصين باكستان فى حربها مع الهند ‪١91٥‬م‪ ،‬ودعمتها بالمعدات الحربية‪ ،‬أى أن كال الدولتين ساعدت بعضهما البعض‬ ‫فى اوقات الحاجة وظل بينهما عالقات صداقة‪.‬‬ ‫العالقات االقتصادية‬ ‫نقاط هامة‪:‬‬ ‫باكستان تتمتع بموقع جغرافى متميز حيث تقع علي مداخل ثالثة‪ ،‬آسيا الوسطى‪ ،‬شرق آسيا‪ ،‬غرب آسيا‪ ،‬عكس الصين‬ ‫المحرومة جغرافيا من الوصول إلى دول آسيا الوسطى‪ ،‬أى أن باكستان هى همزة الوصل فى إيصال المنتجات الصينية‬ ‫الى دول وسط وغرب آسيا‪.‬‬ ‫عامل النفط الذى تعتمد عليه الصين إعتماداً أساسياً يلعب دوراً بارزاً في العالقات بين البلدين‪ ،‬فمنطقة آسيا الوسطى تطل‬ ‫علي بحر القوقاز الذى يحتوى على كميات كبيرة من النفط والغاز ولكى ينقل النفط القوقازى إلى الصين وأيضا إلى‬ ‫الواليات المتحدة وغربى أوروبا واليابان البد أن يكون الطريق التجارى آمناً وقد تبين أن باكستان بوضعها الجغرافى تمثل‬ ‫أكثر الطرق أماناً للقيام بتلك المهمة‪.‬‬ ‫منذ بداية القرن ‪ ،2١‬صدّ قت الصين وباكستان علي إتفاقيات عديدة تهدف إلى تعزيز العالقات الثنائية بينهما فى عدة‬ ‫مجاالت‪ .‬اإلتفاقيات تشمل تطويرالتعاون فى المجال التجاري والزراعى والنقل باإلضافة إلى مجال الطاقة‪.‬‬ ‫وقعت أيضاً الدولتان إتفاقية التجارة الحرة عام ‪2111‬م‪ ،‬بهدف مضاعفة حجم التجارة وإزالة التعريفة الجمركية ‪.‬‬

‫‪19Holland, Steve (February 17, 2010). "White House hails capture of Taliban leader". Reuters‬‬ ‫‪21"U.S. sees improved relations with Pakistan - CNN.com". CNN. March 15, 2010. Retrieved May 20, 2010.‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫العالقات العسكرية‬ ‫يمثل التعاون العسكرى ركناً أساسياً فى التعاون الصينى الباكستانى حيث تمثل الصين المصدر ألكثر من ‪ ٪11‬من‬ ‫واردات باكستان من المعدات العسكرية باإلضافة الي تأسيس مشاريع عسكرية ثنائية إلنتاج الذخائر واألسلحة الحديثة‬ ‫والطائرات المقاتلة والصواريخ الموجهة‪.‬‬ ‫كما عملت الصين علي االستثمار فى تهيئة ميناء غوادر في إقليم بلوشستان الباكستانى أمال فى الحصول على تسهيالت‬ ‫عسكرية دائمة تخدم أغراضها اإلستراتيجية‪.‬‬ ‫التعاون النووى‬ ‫تذكر مصادر اإلستخبارات الغربية أن بكين كانت العاصمة األولى التى شجعت باكستان ومدتها بالمساعدات التقنية ابتداءَ‬ ‫من منتصف السبعينات لتطوير أسلحة نووية قادرة علي ردع الهند‪.‬‬ ‫والمعروف أن البلدين وقعا إتفاقية تعاون شاملة فى المجال النووى ‪١981‬م‪ ،‬ليتبع ذلك إتفاقيات أخرى أهمها بناء محطة‬ ‫نووية فى والية البنجاب عام ‪١999‬م‪ ،‬ومحطة نووية سلمية فى منطقة الخوشاب عام ‪2118‬م‪.‬‬ ‫وكان لبكين يد في إمتالك باكستان لتكنولوجيات الفضاء وإمدادها بالعلماء فى مجاالت التكنولوجيا النووية والفضائية‪.‬‬ ‫ترجع األ سباب التى تقف وراء االتفاقية النووية بين بكين وإسالم آباد إلى رغبة بكين فى إبراز نفسها كقوة دولية على قدم‬ ‫المساواة مع الواليات المتحدة ولكن الهدف المشترك لباكستان والصين هو إعاقة صعود الهند‪.‬‬

‫الخيار الصينى‬ ‫نتيجة للعالقات الحميمة بين البلدين تم اإلحتفال عام ‪211١‬م‪ ،‬باليوبيل الذهبى إلقامة العالقات الدبلوماسية بين البلدين‬ ‫وتزامنت تلك اإلحتفاالت مع دعوات ساسة باكستانيين يطالبون فيها بأن تتبنى باكستان سياسة تقوم على إعتبار الصين‪،‬‬ ‫بدالً من الواليات المتحدة الحليف الرئيسى لها‪.‬‬ ‫دعاة تلك المطالب يزدادون من منطلق أن سياسة الواليات المتحدة األمريكية تجاه باكستان أصبحت غير واضحة فى حين‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫أن الصين أيضاً أصبحت قوة اليستهان بها‪.‬‬

‫[‪[2١‬‬

‫العالقات الهندية الباكستانية‪:‬‬ ‫تعتبر الهند وباكستان من أهم البالد فى شبه القارة الهندية‪ ،‬لكن العالقات الهندية الباكستانية معقدة للغاية وتنطوى على‬ ‫العديد من النزاعات والحروب‪.‬‬ ‫فمنذ تقسيم شبه القارة الهندية عام ‪١9٤٧‬م‪ ،‬إلى دولتي الهند وباكستان وكل منهما ترى األخرى العدو الرئيسى لها‪ ،‬وترجع‬ ‫أسباب الصراع إلى الطريقة التى تم بها تقسيم شبه القارة الهندية على أسس عقائدية ودينية برزت من خاللها مشكلة‬ ‫[‪[22‬‬ ‫كشمير كقضية تفرض نفسها إلستمرار النزاع بين الدولتين‪.‬‬ ‫قضية كشمير ‪:‬اسباب النزاع‬ ‫كانت شبه القارة الهندية تتألف من ‪ ٥٧1‬والية تخضع لسلطة‬ ‫بريطانيا وعند اإلنسحاب البريطانى وإتفاق زعماء بريطانيا‬ ‫والهند على تقسيم البالد إلى الهند وباكستان‪ ،‬خُيرت هذه‬ ‫الواليات بين اإلنضمام إلى الهند أو باكستان وبالفعل تم ذلك‬ ‫فى كل اإلمارات ماعدا جامو وكشمير‪ ،‬حيث كان إقليم جامو‬ ‫وكشمير يخضع لحكم مهراجا هندوسى بينما غالبية الشعب‬ ‫‪ ٪81‬من المسلمين‪ ،‬إزاء هذا الواقع تمرد المسلمون على‬ ‫الحاكم وطلبوا مساندة باكستان واإلنضمام إليها‪ ،‬فقام المهراجا باللجوء إلى الهند وقام بتوقيع وثيقة طلب اإلنضمام للهند‪.‬‬ ‫الحرب الهندية الباكستانية األولى ‪١٤٩١‬م‬ ‫إنتهت هذه الحرب بعد أن قُ سمت كشمير فيما بات يعرف اآلن بوالية جامو وكشمير الخاضعة للسيادة الهندية وعاصمتها‬ ‫سرينغار‪ ،‬وازاد كشمير التابعة لباكستان وعاصمتها مظفر اباد‪.‬‬ ‫الحرب الثانية ‪١٤٩١‬م‬ ‫فى هذه الحرب وجهت الصين إنذارا شديداً إلى الهند وهددتها باإلشتراك الفعلي في الحرب إذا لم تستجب لنداءات المجتمع‬ ‫الدولي بوقف الحرب‪ ،‬لكن الواليات المتحدة رفضت هذا اإلنذار وقالت "إن الصين ال يمكنها أن تهاجم الهند دون أن‬ ‫تتعرض للردع األميركي"‪.‬‬ ‫وقد أظهرت هذه الحرب عدة حقائق منها أن تصعيد القتال في كشمير يمكن أن يستدرج الدولتين إلى حرب شاملة‪ ،‬وأنه لم‬ ‫يعد التهديد الصيني للهند ذا بال بسبب الردع األميركي والتأكيد على أنها لن تسمح لبكين باالشتراك في هذا النزاع‪.‬‬ ‫الحرب الثالثة ‪١٤١١‬م‬ ‫أدت هذه الحرب إلى فصل باكستان الشرقية عن الغربية وقيام جمهورية بنغالديش‪ ،‬وقد كبدت هذه الحرب باكستان خسائر‬ ‫فادحة‪.‬‬

‫‪21 Merrington, L. "the India-U.S.-China-Pakistan quadrilateral " east asia forum. http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/04/11/the‬‬‫‪india-us-china-pakistan-strategic-quadrilateral/ (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪22 Asia Report, "PAKISTAN’S RELATIONS WITH INDIA: BEYOND KASHMIR?", International crisis group, 2012.‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫مستقبل أزمة كشمير ‪:‬‬ ‫أوال‪ :‬سيناريو التقسيم‬ ‫هو من أقدم السيناريوهات التى طرحت لحل النزاع حول كشمير خاصة بعد تقسيم دوله جامو وكشمير بعد حرب كشمير‬ ‫األولى‪ ،‬حيث توجد مناطق خاضعة للسيطرة الهندية وأخرى تحت السيطرة الباكستانية‪ ،‬وإن كانت المناطق التى تسيطر‬ ‫عليها الهند قد اتسعت بعد حربى ‪١91٥‬و‪.١9٧١‬‬ ‫ثانيا‪ :‬سيناريو اإلستقالل‬ ‫يتلخص محتوى هذا السيناريو فى إعالن إستقالل دولة جامو وكشمير وفقا لما كانت عليه فى عام ‪١9٤٧‬م‪ ،‬قبل ظهور‬ ‫دولتى الهند وباكستان‪.‬‬ ‫ثالثا ‪:‬سيناريو اإلستفتاء‬ ‫مضمون هذا السيناريو ان يتم إجراء إستفتاء شعبى تحت إشراف األمم المتحدة يحدد فيه مواطنو جامو وكشمير الى أي‬ ‫دوله ينضمون إلى الهند أم باكستان وهو ما تدعو إليه باكستان وترفضه الهند‪.‬‬ ‫مع صعود النظام العالمى الجديد ‪ ،‬وإنعكاساته على القوى اإلقليمية والعالمية فإن النزاعات الهندية الباكستانية تجاوزت‬ ‫قضية كشمير حيث تتوجه الهند بسياستها الى الصعود إلى مصاف الدول الكبرى والعقبة األساسية امام الهند فى تبوء هذه‬ ‫المكانة هى باكستان التى تمتلك قوة نووية مضادة للهند وتحاول أن تصعد بوصفها مسئولة عن حماية راية اإلسالم فى‬ ‫جنوب آسيا وشبه القارة الهندية‪.‬‬ ‫سباق التسلح بين البلدين‬ ‫ترى باكستان أ ن مجال التسليح التقليدى ال يمكنه تحقيق التوازن مع الهند التى تمتلك جيشا كبيراً يناهزأربعة أمثال الجيش‬ ‫الباكستانى وتدعمه صناعات عسكرية متقدمة تفتقر اليها باكستان‪.‬‬ ‫وقد أكدت باكستان أن تجاربها النووية كانت مرتبطة بالظروف الجديدة في جنوبي آسيا بعد التفجيرات الهندية‪ ،‬حيث باتت‬ ‫باكستان في وضع شديد الحرج‪ ،‬ومثلها مثل الهند أعلنت أنها ال ترغب في الدخول في سباق تسلح نووى‪ ،‬وأنها سوف‬ ‫تنتهج إستراتيجية الحد األدنى من الرادع النووى‪.‬‬ ‫االمل فى التعاون االقتصادى‬ ‫رغم الصورة المستقبلية القاتمة بالنسبة للعالقات الثنائية بين البلدين‪ ،‬تعمل الهند وباكستان على تحسين العالقات‬ ‫االقتصادية بينهما من اجل مصالحهما المشتركة‪ .‬وإتخذت هذه الخطوات‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .‬تعهدت اسالم اباد بمنح الهند وضع الدولة االكثر تفضيال فى مجال التجارة‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .‬قام كل من البلدين بتخفيف القيود الصارمة على تأشيرات الدخول بين البلدين فى خطوة لتحسين العالقات‪.‬‬ ‫وعالوة على ذلك‪ ،‬فإن الهند دخلت حالياً أيضاً في مفاوضات مع باكستان حول تصدير الكهرباء‪ ،‬إلى جانب فتح مزيد من‬ ‫نقاط التجارة على الحدود بينهما‪.‬‬ ‫يتقاسم البلدان عالقة معق دة يتأثر فيها كل شيء بالتاريخ وحيث ما زالت ذكريات الحروب الثالث التي خاضها البلدان قوية‬ ‫وحاضرة في األذهان‪ ،‬فإن التعاون التجارى يمثل األمل الوحيد في تحسين العالقات‪.‬‬ ‫العالقات الباكستانية االيرانية‪:‬‬ ‫تتميز العالقات بين باكستان وإيران بأهمية استراتيجية لكال الدولتين نظرًا للموقع الجغرافى االستراتيجي‪ ،‬حيث واجهت‬ ‫باكستان فور إنشائها مشاكل حدودية مع الهند وأفغانستان فعملت على توثيق عالقتها مع ايران والصين لتوخي الحذر‪،‬‬ ‫وفى الوقت نفسه رحبت إيران بجارتها الجديدة باكستان اإلسالمية‪.‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫تاريخ العالقات بين باكستان و إيران‬ ‫كانت العالقات الثنائية فى الخمسينات والستينات‪ ،‬حيث كانت السياسة الخارجية لكال البلدين متطابقة حيال معظم القضايا‬ ‫الدولية‪ ،‬على سبيل المثال كانت إيران وباكستان عضوين في حلف بغداد‪ ،‬الموالي للغرب‪ ،‬حلف (سانتو) بعد خروج‬ ‫العراق منه‪ .‬وكان الهدف األول من هذا الحلف مواجهة انتشار الشيوعية في المنطقة‪ .‬وعندما نشبت الحرب بين الهند‬ ‫وباكستان في عام ‪١91٥‬م‪ ،‬قدمت إيران الكثير من التسهيالت لباكستان‪ ،‬مثل صف طائراتها في إيران وتزويد طائراتها‬ ‫الحربية بالوقود‪ .‬أصبحت إيران تلعب دورا محوريا في جعل باكستان وإيران كتلة إسالمية قوية موالية للغرب‪.‬‬ ‫لكن بحلول عام ‪١9٧9‬م‪ ،‬تغير الوضع بدخول قوات االتحاد السوفيتى إلى أفغانستان واإلنقالب على حكم الشاه فى إيران‪،‬‬ ‫حيث ظهر هنا إختالف تام فى وجهتى نظر إسالم أباد وطهران تجاه الواليات المتحدة التي أصبحت لدى اإليرانيين‬ ‫“الشيطان األكبر” ولدى الباكستانيين الحليف الرئيسي ضد اإلحتالل السوفييتي ألفغانستان المسلمة والمجاورة لباكستان‪.‬‬ ‫العالقات اإلقتصادية الحالية‬ ‫منذ عام ‪211٥‬م و باكستان تعمل على تشجيع االستثمارات اإليرانية والتعاون فى مجال الطاقة‪ ،‬حيث أن باكستان تعاني‬ ‫من أزمة طاقة‪ ،‬لذا تعتمد بشكل متزايد على طهران لتوريد احتياجتها المتنامية من الطاقة‪.‬‬ ‫ فى ‪2118‬م‪ ،‬وافقت إيران على تمويل مشروع الطاقة الذى من شأنه أن يسمح لباكستان بإستيراد ‪ ١111‬ميغاوات من‬‫الكهرباء للتغلب على النقص في الطاقة‪.‬‬ ‫ فى ‪2119‬م‪ ،‬وسعت إيران وباكستان التعاون بشأن قضايا النقل عندما إفتتحا خط السكة الحديدية من إسالم آباد إلى‬‫اسطانبول والذى يمر عن طريق طهران‪.‬‬ ‫إتفاقية التجارة التفضيلية‪:‬‬ ‫ مشروع خط انابيب الغاز‪ :‬اإلقتراح إلنشاء خط أنابيب الغاز بين البلدين أثار اهتماماً في باكستان والهند بسبب حاجتهما‬‫المتزايدة للطاقة‪ ،‬ويعتبر هذا المشروع تحدِ علنى للعقوبات اإلقتصادية المفروضة علي إيران من الواليات المتحدة‬ ‫واإلتحاد األوروبى‪ ،‬فبتنفيذ هذا المشروع تكون باكستان قد أحبطت الجهود االمريكية واألوروبية لعزل ايران وكان من‬ ‫المقرر تنف يذ هذا المشروع منذ التسعينات ليمتد من باكستان إلي الهند لكن الهند انسحبت تحت تأثير الضغوط الدولية بينما‬ ‫باكستان لم تستجب حتى اآلن لضغوط الواليات المتحدة ومن المقرر تنفيذه في ‪21١٤‬م‪.‬‬ ‫التعاون النووى‬ ‫تمتلك باكستان أحد أكبر الترسانات النووية فى العالم وتعتبر قوة محفزة وراء الطموحات النووية اإليرانية وتدافع علناً عن‬ ‫حق ايران فى إستخدام التكنولوجيا النووية‪ ،‬وتتهم الواليات المتحدة باكستان بمساعدة إيران نووياً وتقديم تصاميم متعلقة‬ ‫بصناعة القنبلة النووية وخرائط ألجهزة الطرد المركزى لتنقية اليورانيوم إليران ‪.‬‬ ‫على مدى السنوات الماضية‪ ،‬دعت باكستان للمصالحة السلمية حول المواجهة النووية وأكدت رفضها ألى نوع من أنواع‬ ‫العقوبات ضد إيران‪.‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫العالقات الدبلوماسية‬ ‫توجد بعض األزمات حول العالقات الدبلوماسية بين البلدين‪ ،‬حيث ينتمى معظم السكان في إيران إلى الطائفة الشيعية‪ ،‬أما‬ ‫أغلبية السكان في باكستان فهم من المسلمين السُنّة باإلضافة إلى الجماعات اإلرهابية كطالبان باكستان التى تشن عمليات‬ ‫إرهابية ضد الشيعة‪ ،‬وينتشر العنف الطائفى خاصة في إقليم بلوشستان الذى يمتد بين الدولتين‪.‬‬ ‫العقبات التي تواجهها العالقات الثنائية‪:‬‬ ‫وجهات نظر متباينة تجاه الواليات المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬ ‫‪.2‬‬

‫حالة الركود االقتصادي في إيران تحول دون إزدهار عالقة إقتصادية وتجارية وسيطرة الحكومة على اإلقتصاد‬ ‫اإليراني‬

‫‪.٣‬‬

‫الوضع األمني المتردي على الحدود الباكستانية ـ اإليرانية يشجع تهريب المخدرات والهجرة غير الشرعية‪ ،‬وقد‬ ‫يعرقل إنشاء خط الغاز‬

‫نقاط إيجابية‬ ‫ال توجد مشكلة حدودية بين البلدين وكالهما حريصان على حدود آمنة بينهما‪.‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬ ‫‪.2‬‬

‫هناك خط السكة الحديدية بين البلدين يمكن أن يسهل التجارة في المستقبل‪.‬‬

‫‪.٣‬‬

‫باكستان سوق كبيرة الستهالك الغاز اإليراني وإيران لديها ثاني أكبر مخزون من الغاز في العالم‪ .‬وباكستان هي‬ ‫[‪]2٤[ ]2٣‬‬ ‫الممر البري الوحيد لتصدير الغاز اإليراني إلى الهند‪.‬‬

‫‪23PPI "Pak-Iran relations to further flourish: Nayyer Bukhari" dawn.com. http://dawn.com/2012/08/06/pak-iran-relations-to‬‬‫‪further-flourish-nayyer-bukhari/ (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪24Pant, H. V. "Pakistan and Iran's Dysfunctional Relationship" middle east forum. http://www.meforum.org/2119/pakistan-and‬‬‫‪irans-dysfunctional-relationship (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫تأثير سياسة باكستان الخارجية على المصالح األمريكية‪:‬‬ ‫منطقة جنوب أسيا هى األهم فى سياسة الواليات المتحدة طويلة األمد للحفا على نظام القطب الواحد العالمى‪ ،‬وباكستان‬ ‫هى حالياً المحرك األساسى للتحكم فى هذه األجندة‪ ،‬لهذا تكتسب سياستِها الخارجية وأولوياتِها اإلستراتيجية أهمية أمريكية‬ ‫قصوى‪ .‬تَعتَبِر باكستان وجودها من األساس تحت تهديد دائم من جارتها األقوى واألكبر‪ :‬الهند‪ ،‬لذا تتصف عالقات‬ ‫باكستان الخارجية بالمرونة وعدم الوضوح والتغير الدائم بحثاً عن توازن إستراتيجى فى مواجهة الهند‪ .‬فقد إستغنت‬ ‫باكستان بين ليلة وضحاها عن حلفائها فى أفغانستان من أجل الحفا على هذا التوازن فى عام ‪211١‬م‪.‬‬ ‫على ضوء هذه الحقيقة إختلف تعريف الواليات المتحدة لباكستان من "دولة فاشلة"‪ ،‬ال تستطيع فرض سيادة القانون على‬ ‫أراضيها‪ ،‬قبل الحرب‪ ،‬إلى "أقرب الحلفاء" أثنائها ليعود إلى "أكثر الحلفاء إستغالالً" بعد الحرب‪ ،‬وتوصف العالقات دومًا‬ ‫بعدم الوضوح من قبل المحللين‪ .‬تعتمد باكستان حالياً على الواليات المتحدة كعامل محافظ على توازن القوى مع الهند‪،‬‬ ‫والحائل بين وقوع صراع مسلح مع األخيرة‪ ،‬قد ال تكون باكستان هى الطرف المستفيد منه‪ .‬على الناحية األخرى تجيد‬ ‫إسالم آباد إستخدام الصين كورقة ضغط أومالذ أمن حين تتوتر عالقتها بالواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬فالصين تستخدم ميناء‬ ‫"جوادر" فى باكستان القريب من مضيق هرمز كقاعدة بحرية إليصال تأثيرها اإلستراتيجى إلى بحر العرب ما يتعارض‬ ‫مع سياسة الواليات المتحدة الدفاعية‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى األفضلية التى يعطيها ذلك فى حالة قررت إيران إغالق مضيق هرمز‬ ‫ودعمت الصين هذا الموقف‪ .‬كما تعد باكستان فرصة صينية عظيمة لمنافسة الواليات المتحدة فى السوق الهندى شاسع‬ ‫الفرص والمحتاج دوماً لألسلحة والمعدات‪ ،‬باإلضافة لتسويق التكنولوجيا النووية الصينية فى باكستان ذاتها‪ .‬لكن السؤال‬ ‫دوماً يطرح نفسه‪ ،‬إلى متى تستمر الصين فى مجاراة باكستان‪.‬‬ ‫رغم التباين الشديد فى الرؤى ما بين إيران وباكستان‪ ،‬إال أن باكستان تعد الحلقه األضعف فى سلسلة تقييد إيران إقتصاديًا‬ ‫وسياسياً فبرغم التوتر الطائفى على الحدود المشتركة‪ ،‬لكن خط السكك الحديدية المزمع إنشائه سوف يقوى من موقف‬ ‫إيران اإلستراتيجى‪ .‬أضف إلى ذلك موقف باكستان السلبى دوماً من البرنامج النووى اإليرانى من وجهة نظر أمريكية‪،‬‬ ‫واإلستخبارات التى تشير إلى إمكانية أن تكون إيران فى الطرف المستفيد من تعاون نووى مزعوم مع باكستان‪.‬‬ ‫يبقى المثلث الهندى الباكستانى األمريكى هو األكثر ديناميكية‪ ،‬فباكستان دوماً فى موقف رد الفعل على تحركات الهند‬ ‫حفاظاً على توازن القوى الهش فى المنطقة‪ ،‬ومشكلة كشمير األزلية الزالت تؤرق الساسة األمريكان إلمكانية جر الصين‬ ‫فى مواجهة مباشرة مع الواليات المتحدة بسببها‪.‬‬ ‫تنتظر باكستان رد فعل أمريكى ال تستطيع تحديد ماهيتة حتى األن‪ ،‬فى نظر بعض المحللين‪ ،‬ردًا على التهديدات التى‬ ‫تمثلها للمصالح األمريكية‪ .‬الواليات المتحدة لم تنسَ تورط باكستان فى دعم جماعات جهادية وإيوائها لطالبان وجماعات‬ ‫راديكالية أخرى ومقتل بن الدن فى "بيت أمن" فى باكستان‪ ،‬هذا باإلضافة إلى تحكم باكستان فى ممرات عبور النفط‬ ‫[‪[2٥‬‬ ‫والغاز من وسط أسيا‪.‬‬ ‫الحرب في أفغانستان ودور باكستان فيها‪:‬‬ ‫مرت اإلستراتيجيات األمريكية تجاه باكستان بثالث مراحل‪ ،‬أولها‪ :‬مرحلة الحرب الباردة‪ ،‬والتي إعتمدت فيها الواليات‬ ‫المتحدة على باكستان نظرًا لقربها من اإلتحاد السوفييتي الذي شكّل في هذه المرحلة العدو األساسي للواليات المتحدة‪،‬‬ ‫ودعمت الحكومات المتعاقبة لهذه الدولة‪ .‬ثم مرحلة ما بعد الحرب الباردة‪ ،‬وبعد إنهيار حلف "وارسو" وسقوط حائط‬ ‫برلين وتفكك اإلتحاد السوفييتي‪ .‬أحدث ذلك تغيرًا أساسيًا في الرؤية األمريكية لعالقاتها الدولية‪ ،‬فكانت بداية التحول في‬ ‫زيارة الرئيس كلينتون إلى الهند‪ .‬حيث إتسمت زيارته لها بالحرارة‪ ،‬بينما إتسمت زيارته لباكستان بالبرود‪ .‬وأصبح من‬ ‫الواضح أن هوى الواليات المتحدة يميل نحو الهند‪ ،‬دون باكستان‪ .‬ثم تأتي مرحلة ما بعد هجمات ‪ ١١‬سبتمبر‪ ،‬وفيها برز‬ ‫‪25 Marvin G. Weinbaum ,War and Peace in Afghanistan: The Pakistani Role,Middle East Institute‬‬

‫‪22‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫اإلحتياج األمريكي مرة أخرى إلى باكستان بعد الضربات التي تلقتها الواليات المتحدة في عقر دارها‪ ،‬حيث إن باكستان‬ ‫هي الراعي األول لطالبان الحاكمة ألفغانستان‪ ،‬والتي يتواجد فيها قيادات القاعدة‪ ،‬فكان السبيل األنجح للقضاء عليها هو‬ ‫ك التحالف بين باكستان وطالبان‪ ،‬ومن ثَم يسقط المالذ اآلمن لطالبان وبالتالي للقاعدة‪.‬‬ ‫فّ‬ ‫توصلت اإلدارة األمريكية في النهاية أن الحلقة األهم من حل معضلتها في أفغانستان هو اللعب بالورقة الباكستانية‪،‬‬ ‫فعملت على توحيد مسرح اللعب ليشمل كل من الدولتين‪ .‬هذا اإلرتباط بين الدولتين له بُعده الجغرافي‪ ،‬حيث إن الحدود‬ ‫األفغانية الباكستانية تبلغ ‪ ١1٤1‬ميالً‪ ،‬وبها ‪ ٣11‬معبر غير رسمي‪ .‬لذلك ظل الجدل محتدماً داخل إدارة بوش‪ ،‬ومن بعدها‬ ‫إدارة أوباما حول أولويات العمل من أفغانستان‪ ،‬أم من باكستان؟ واكتشفوا أنه كان من الخطأ الذهاب إلى أفغانستان في عام‬ ‫‪ 211١‬م‪ ،‬والدخول في هذا المستنقع الذي ال يبدو منه خالص أمريكي قريب قبل حل المعضلة الباكستانية‪ ،‬والتي تتمثل‬ ‫بشكل أساسي في النظرة اإل ستراتيجية الباكستانية ألفغانستان‪ ،‬وأنها تمثل امتدادًا استراتيجيًا لها‪ ،‬وهذه النظرة متعمقة‬ ‫بصورة أساسية لدى العسكريين الباكستانيين‪ ،‬وهم الالعب األخطر في توجهات باكستان‪.‬‬ ‫من هذا المنطلق الذي كشف عنه الرئيس أوباما تحاول أمريكا منذ أحداث الحادي عشر من سبتمبر استثمار مساعداتها‬ ‫العسكرية لباكستان كورقة ضغط لتعديل سلوك النظام الباكستاني بما يتوافق مع التطلعات األمريكية‪ ،‬وخاصة ما يتعلق‬ ‫منها بمحاربة اإلرهاب‪ .‬وأصبح هدفين أساسين تريدهما الواليات المتحدة من باكستان‪ ،‬ويمكن تصنيفهما ضمن األهداف‬ ‫األمريكية الكبرى اآلن‪ ،‬وهما‪ :‬ضمان تعاون باكستان في الحرب األمريكية ضد اإلرهاب‪ ،‬وإستمرار الدعم الباكستاني‬ ‫لقوات الناتو في أفغانستان‪ .‬في نفس الوقت تضغط الواليات المتحدة لتحقيق عدة مطالب منها‪ :‬إنسحاب آمن للقوات‬ ‫األمريكية من أف غانستان‪ ،‬مع ضمان عدم وجود تأثير للقاعدة على النظام الذي سيتشكل في كابول‪ ،‬كما تريد الواليات‬ ‫المتحدة القضاء على المالذات اآلمنة للقاعدة ومناصريها في منطقة القبائل‪ ،‬كذلك ترغب أمريكا في استتباب األمن في‬ ‫منطقة جنوب آسيا‪ ،‬وأمن حليفتها الكبرى الهند‪.‬‬ ‫يحاول النظام الباكستاني‪ ،‬مواجهة مطالب البيئة الداخلية والخارجية بعدة استراتيجيات أهمها‪ :‬توجيه الحالة اإلسالمية‬ ‫الباكستانية في اتجاه توحيد البالد ضد الفوضى العرقية والمذهبية‪ ،‬كما يستخدم عددًا من الجماعات اإلسالمية كي يخوض‬ ‫بها حربًا بديلة ليحقق بها أهدافه‪ ،‬سواء إلسترداد كشمير أو لجعل أفغانستان ظهيرًا إستراتيجيًا للدولة الباكستانية‪ ،‬وفي نفس‬ ‫الوقت يستخدم مزيجًا من سياسات القمع والتهدئة والصفقات مع بعض هذه الجماعات‪ ،‬والتي تقاوم إستراتيجيته تلك‪ .‬وإزاء‬ ‫المطالب األمريكية يتبع النظام الباكستاني أسلوبًا مراوغًا؛ ولذلك يقوم بتوفير الحماية لطالبان أفغانستان‪ ،‬ودعم الحركات‬ ‫المجاهدة في كشمير‪ ،‬وذلك بصورة سرية‪ ،‬وفقاً لتقارير أمريكية‪ ،‬بينما في العلن يجاهر بمساندة الواليات المتحدة في‬ ‫حربها ضد اإلرهاب‪ ،‬كما عمل على إجهاض الخطة األمريكية بتغيير ركائز القوى داخل النظام‪.‬‬ ‫سيناريوهات المستقبل‪:‬‬ ‫أوالً‪ :‬على الصعيد األمريكي‪ :‬باتت اإلدارة األمريكية على قناعة أن مفتاح حل أزمتها في أفغانستان يوجد في باكستان‪،‬‬ ‫ولكي تنسحب بهدوء من أفغانستان‪ ،‬وال تعود هذه البالد مرة أخرى بيئة لنمو الجماعات التي تهدد أمن أمريكا؛ يجب عليها‬ ‫استرضاء الجيش الباكستاني‪ ،‬من وجهة نظر الساسة األمريكان‪ ،‬وأن تعهد إليه بأمر هذه األرض‪ ،‬بحيث يستطيع أن‬ ‫ينصب نظام موالٍ له في أفغانستان‪ ،‬وتتعهد باكستان هي نفسها أمام أمريكا بعدم عودة القاعدة مرة أخرى في أفغانستان‬ ‫وهذا السيناريو هو الخيار الوحيد للواليات المتحدة بجانب مراقبتها للدولة الباكستانية وحرصها على توغل الليبرالية‬ ‫الغربية في مفاصل هذه الدولة‪ ،‬من وجهة نظر بعض المحللين‪.‬‬ ‫ثانيا‪ :‬على الصعيد الباكستاني‪ :‬فقد تركت الهزيمة السوفييتية في نهاية الثمانينيات‪ ،‬ومن ثَم انسحابها من أفغانستان‪ ،‬وما‬ ‫البسها من ظروف أثرًا غائرًا في داخل النظام الباكستاني ال يزال موجودًا حتى هذه اللحظة‪ ،‬وفقاً لمحللين باكستانيين‪ .‬وهو‬ ‫‪23‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫ما جعل إستراتيجية الجيش تبنى على ثالثة أسس مهمة‪ .‬األول‪ :‬ضرورة اتخاذ أفغانستان ظهيرًا استراتيجيًا لباكستان في‬ ‫صراعها للبقاء‪ ،‬خاصة أمام عدوها الهندي اللدود‪ .‬والثاني‪ :‬إمكانية انسحاب قوة كبرى من أرض استولت عليها‪ ،‬وهو ما‬ ‫يمكن تحقيقه بواسطة حرب عصابات يمكن أن تُشَنّ على تلك القوة‪ ،‬وبذلك يمكن تطبيق النموذج األفغاني في كشمير‪،‬‬ ‫حيث يمكن إجبار الهند على سحب قوتها من هناك‪ .‬الثالث‪ :‬هي عدم الثقة في الواليات المتحدة بعد أن تخلت عن أفغانستان‬ ‫وباكستان‪ ،‬بل وتثور حولها الشبهات في اغتيال ضياء الحق‪ .‬لذلك ستواصل القيادة العسكرية نهجها‪ ،‬وهو الصبر حتى‬ ‫تخرج أمريكا من أفغانستان‪ ،‬ومقابلة الضغوط األمريكية بمحاولة اإللتفاف حولها بقدر اإلمكان‪ ،‬وفي نفس الوقت إخضاع‬ ‫ال حركة اإلسالمية‪ ،‬وباألخص المسلحة منها‪ ،‬بجميع الوسائل سواء السياسية والعسكرية حتى تنضوي في اإلستراتيجية‬ ‫[‪[21‬‬ ‫الباكستانية‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ترسانة باكستان النووية وإمكانياتها العسكرية‪:‬‬

‫تاريخ باكستان النووى‪:‬‬ ‫التفكير فى برنامج نووى باكستانى يرجع إلى أوائل الخمسينيات من القرن الماضى‪ ،‬ولكن خسارة الجزء الشرقى من‬ ‫باكستان فى أوائل السبعينيات نتيجه للحرب مع الهند‪ ،‬عجل بإتخاذ القرار بالبدء فى برنامج نووى سرى‪ ،‬بعد شهرٍ واحد‬ ‫من نهاية الحرب فى يناير ‪١9٧2‬م[‪ .[2٧‬ردع البرنامج النووى الهندى والدعم اإلستراتيجى للقوات العسكرية الباكستانية‬ ‫التى هى فى موقف أضعف من نظيرتها الهندية كان هو الهدف الرئيسى من البرنامج النووى الباكستانى‪ .‬وكانت‬ ‫التفجيرات النووية الهندية "السلمية" فى عام ‪١9٧٤‬م‪ ،‬الحدث األكثر تأثيراً‪ ،‬ودفعاً للبرنامج النووى الباكستانى لإلسراع‬ ‫من اإلنتهاء من القنبلة النووية "اإلسالمية" األولى‪ .‬إكتسبت باكستان تكنولوجيا تخصيب اليورانيوم من شرق أوروبا‪،‬‬ ‫[‪[28‬‬ ‫ولكنها أعتمدت فى تصنيع الصواريخ و التكنولوجيا المصاحبه لها على الصين‪.‬‬ ‫قامت الهند بعمل تجارب نووية "غير سلمية" هذه المرة فى ‪ ١١‬مايو ‪١998‬م‪ ،‬لتعلن عن إمتالكها أسلحة نووية‪ ،‬لترد‬ ‫باكستان فى ‪ 28‬من نَفس الشهر لتعلن بدورها عن إمتالكها األسلحة ذاتها‪ .‬وقعت الواليات المتحدة العديد من العقوبات‬ ‫على باكستان كرد على نشاطها النووى "الغير مُ َنسَق" مسبقاً مع الواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬بعكس نظيره الهندى‪ .‬تم إيقاف كل هذه‬ ‫العقوبات بعد هجمات الحادى عشر من سبتمبر‪.‬‬ ‫إمكانيات باكستان النووية والعسكرية الحالية‪:‬‬ ‫‪.‬قاوم " )الحرب على باكستان( قراء ة في كتاب " ‪,‬جالل الشايب ‪26‬‬ ‫‪http://ar.qawim.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8013&Itemid=1319 (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪27 See, for example, U.S. Department of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, April 1996, p. 37‬‬ ‫‪28 kerr, P.K. "Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues", Congressional Research Service, 2013.‬‬

‫‪24‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫القوات المسلحة الباكستانية هي القوات العسكرية لباكستان وهى سابع أكبر جيش في العالم من حيث عدد القوات النشطة‪.‬‬ ‫بعد عام ‪١912‬م‪ ،‬إحتفظت القوات المسلحة الباكستانية بعالقات عسكرية وثيقة مع جمهورية الصين الشعبية‪ ،‬بما في ذلك‬ ‫التعاون في مجال البحوث والتنمية لتعزيز النظام العسكري‪ .‬والصين هي المورد الرئيسي للمعدات العسكرية لباكستان‪.‬‬ ‫كال البلدين يتعاونان أيضا على التنمية في برامج األسلحة النووية وتكنولوجيا الفضاء‪ .‬كما تحتفظ باكستان بعالقة وثيقة‬ ‫عسكرية مع الواليات المتحدة وهي من أهم الحلفاء‪ ،‬من خارج حلف الناتو‪ ،‬للواليات المتحدة‪ .‬يقوم الجيش الباكستانى حالياً‬ ‫[‪] ٣١[] ٣1[] 29‬‬ ‫بإستيراد المعدات العسكرية من الصين والواليات المتحدة األمريكية‪.‬‬ ‫تتكون القوات الباكستانية من ‪ 1١٧،111‬من القوات النشطة األساسية باإلضافة إلى ‪ ٥١٣،111‬من قوات اإلحتياط‬ ‫الجاهزة و‪ ٣1٤،111‬من القوات المتعلقه بالجيش كاإلدارة المركزية لألسلحة النووية‪ ،‬ما يجعل تعداد القوات الكامل‬ ‫‪ .١،٤٥١،111‬رغم هذا العدد المهول‪ ،‬لم يكن التجنيد اإلجبارى يوماً سياسة متبعة فى باكستان‪ ،‬حيث يُقبل المتطوعون‬ ‫[‬ ‫على الجيش بكثافة‪ ،‬ويعتبر اإلنتماء له شرف إجتماعى كبير‪٣2[.‬‬ ‫تعتبر الهند هى العدو األساسى للجيش الباكستانى‪ ،‬و تتمركز ‪ ٪٧1‬من القوات على الحدود المشتركه مع الهند لمجابهة أى‬ ‫غزو محتمل‪ ،‬ولكن مع إزدياد التسليح فى منطقة القبائل بعد الغزو األمريكى ألفغانستان‪ ،‬تم نقل ‪ ١٥1،111‬من القوات‬ ‫للحدود مع أفغانستان لمحاربة القاعدة وطالبان ومشاركة الناتو فى الحرب على اإلرهاب‪ .‬وتعتبر العالقات العسكرية مع‬ ‫الصين هى األقوى للجيش الباكستانى‪ ،‬فالصين ساعدت الجيش الباكستانى بشكل متواصل فى تحديث بنيته التحتية وتصنيع‬ ‫أسلحته بنفسه و تحديث وسائله بصورة مستمرة‪ ،‬فالبلدان وقعا إتفاقيات تعاون عسكرى ال حصر لها‪ ،‬كما قاما بتحديث‬ ‫العديد من نماذج طائرات من خالل مشاريع مشتركة‪ ،‬كما تعد الصين هى المساهم األكبر فى ميناء جوادير اإلستراتيجى‬ ‫القريب للغاية من مضيق هرمز الهام‪ .‬و بدورها تقوم باكستان بمساعدة كلٍ من بنجالدش‪ ،‬سريالنكا وبعض دول الشرق‬ ‫األوسط عسكرياً بصورة متواصلة‪ ،‬على الرغم من الحظر األمريكى‪.‬‬ ‫وعلى عكس نظيرتها فى الصين‪ ،‬فإن عالقات الواليات المتحدة العسكرية مع باكستان ليست منتظمة ومتذبذبه دائمًا‬ ‫ومعتمدة على ظهور المصالح اإلستراتيجية األمريكية فى المنطقة ومدى تعاون باكستان‪.‬‬ ‫وعلى الصعيد النووى تمتلك باكستان ما بين ‪ 91‬و ‪ ١١1‬رأس نووية جاهزة‪ ،‬قابلين للزيادة كرد على البرنامح النووى‬ ‫الهندى‪ .‬تتم السيطرة على هذه الرؤوس عن طريق القيادة المركزية النووية فى إسالم آباد‪ .‬لدى باكستان وسيلتى إيصال‬ ‫ج اهزتين لهذه الرؤوس‪ ،‬لتمكنها من إحداث ضربة نووية إذا أرادت‪ ،‬األولى هى طائرات اإلف‪ ١1-‬المشتراة من الواليات‬ ‫[‬ ‫المتحده‪ ،‬و الثانيه هى الصواريخ العابرة للقارات المشتراة والمطورة من قبل الصين‪٣٣[.‬‬ ‫المخاوف األمريكية‪:‬‬ ‫يعتبر الخوف من إنتشار األسلحة النووية هو الخوف العالمى األعظم من باكستان ويثير قلق عالمى‪ ،‬وليس أمريكى فقط‪.‬‬ ‫فبرغم إشارة العديد من التقارير األمريكية إلى أن الرؤوس النووية منفصلة عن وسائل إيصالها‪ ،‬ما يضعف إحتماالت‬ ‫‪29 "importer exporter TIV tables" stockholm international peace research institute .‬‬ ‫)‪http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/values.php (accessed february 19, 2013‬‬ ‫‪31 Murray, M.M. "China Aiding Pakistan's Nuclear Ambitions " CBS NEWS.‬‬ ‫‪http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/16/world/main4527309.shtml (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪31 Fazl-e-Haider, S. "China, Pakistan cooperate in space" asia times online.‬‬ ‫‪http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/ID26Df01.html (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪32 The Military Balance 2010, p. 367, International Institute for Strategic Studies (London, 2010).‬‬ ‫‪33 kerr, P.K. "Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues", Congressional Research Service, 2013.‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫إطالقها خطئاً‪ ،‬فإن إمكانية العبث بأدوات التوجيه قد يؤدى إلى نتائج كارثية‪ .‬وتعتبر بداية األلفية الحالية هى الفترة األخطر‬ ‫بالنسبه إلى هذا الموضوع‪ ،‬عندما قرر برويز مشرف نقل الرؤوس النووية إلى ‪ 1‬مناطق سرية جديده خوفاً من إستهداف‬ ‫الواليات المتحدة لها‪ ،‬وهو أحد آهم أسباب التحول الدرامى فى الموقف الباكستانى‪.‬‬ ‫في خريف عام ‪211٧‬م وأوائل عام ‪2118‬م‪ ،‬أعرب بعض المراقبين عن القلق إزاء أمن الترسانة في البالد إذا كان عدم‬ ‫االستقرار السياسى سيستمر‪ .‬قالت رئيسة الوزراء السابقه بينظير بوتو في ‪ ،211٧‬فى مقابله‪ ،‬على الرغم من أن الرئيس‬ ‫مشرف إدعى السيطرة الحازمة على الترسانة النووية وقتها‪ ،‬إال انها تخشى هذه السيطرة يمكن أن تضعف نتيجة لعدم‬ ‫االستقرار فى البالد‪ ،‬كما قال مايكل كريبون من مركز هنري ستيمسون ان "فترة طويلة من االضطرابات واالقتتال بين‬ ‫رئيس البالد ‪ ،‬رئيس الوزراء‪ ،‬ورئيس أركان الجيش "يمكن أن يهدد وحدة الجيش‪ ،‬والتي" ال بد منها لألمن النووي‪" .‬‬ ‫وخالل ذلك الوقت‪ ،‬أعرب مس ؤولون عسكريون أمريكيون أيضا عن قلقهم إزاء أمن أسلحة باكستان النووية آنذاك‪ ،‬المدير‬ ‫العام للوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية محمد البرادعي أعرب أيضاعن مخاوف من أن يمتلك نظام متطرف فى باكستان‬ ‫[‪]٣٣‬‬ ‫األسلحة النووية فى حال سيطر على السلطة‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬تاريخ المساعدات األمريكية لباكستان‬

‫على مر العقود الست الماضية قامت الواليات المتحدة بإرسال وقطع المساعدات عن باكستان العديد من المرات توافقا مع‬ ‫أهداف السياسات الخارجية لها‪ .‬كانت تهدف المساعدات األمريكية في بعض األحيان إلي حفظ التوازن في المنطقة‬ ‫وإحتواء توسعات االتحاد السوفيتي وفي أحيان أخرى إنقطعت المساعدات بسبب تطوير باكستان اسلحتها النووية‪.‬‬ ‫إنخفض مستوى المساعدات األمريكية في عام ‪١912‬م‪ ،‬عقب انضمام باكستان لمعاهدتي دفاع في المنطقة أال وهما‬ ‫معاهدة جنوب شرق آسيا السيتو (‪ )SEATO‬ومعاهدة وسط آسيا (‪ )CENTO‬و المعروفة أيضا باسم اتفاق بغداد‪ .‬قطعت‬ ‫الواليات المتحدة المساعدات العسكرية عن باكستان والهند بعد الحرب بينهما في ‪١91٥‬م و‪١9٧2‬م‪ ،‬مما ادى إلى برود‬ ‫في العالقات بين الواليات المتحدة وباكستان‪ .‬وفي منتصف السبعينيات ظهرت مجموعة أخرى من التوترات تبعت‬ ‫محاوالت باكستان للسعي وراء إمتالك اسلحة نووية ردا على التجارب النووية الهندية عام ‪١9٧٤‬م‪ .‬أوقف الرئيس‬ ‫االمريكي جيمي كارتر معظم المساعدات ردا على إنشاء باكستان منشأة لتخصيب اليورانيوم‪ .‬وفي العام ‪١9٧9‬م‪ ،‬وكنتيجة‬ ‫لغزو اإلتحاد السوفيتي ألفغانستان ظهرت باكستان كحليف للواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬لذلك في ‪١98١‬م‪ ،‬ناقشت إدارة الرئيس‬ ‫ريجن ‪ ٣.2‬مليار دوالر مساعدات إقتصادية وعسكرية تقدم لباكستان على مدار خمس سنوات ونتيجة لذلك أصبحت‬ ‫‪26‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫باكستان هي المفتاح الرئيسي لنقل االسلحة للمقاومة األفغانية‪.‬‬ ‫في عام ‪١98٥‬م‪ ،‬وافق الكونجرس على تعديالت بريسلر (الفصل ‪ )e 121‬من قانون العالقات الخارجية والذي طلب من‬ ‫الرئيس ان يشهد بعدم حيازة باكستان متفجرات نووية في السنة المالية التي تقدم فيها المساعدات‪ .‬شهد كل من الرئيس‬ ‫ريجن و الرئيس جورج بوش بذلك حتى عام ‪١991‬م‪ .‬بعد عام ‪١991‬م‪ ،‬بقيت المساعدات األمريكية في مستويات‬ ‫منخفضة لم تشهد باكستان مثلها منذ الخمسينيات إثرهزيمة اإلتحاد السوفيتي في أفغانستان وخفض الواليات المتحدة‬ ‫للمساعدات عامة في محاولة لموازنة الميزانية‪.‬‬ ‫بعد أحداث ‪ ١١‬سبتمبر وكنتيجة لتحالف باكستان مع الواليات المتحدة في الحرب على اإلرهاب إرتفعت المساعدات‬ ‫بطريقة سريعة‪ ،‬ففي سبتمبر ‪211١‬م تم تحويل مبلغ ‪ 111‬مليون دوالر لباكستان‪ .‬وفي ‪211٣‬م استضاف الرئيس‬ ‫األمريكي جورج دبليو بوش نظيره الباكستاني بيرفيز مشرف في كامب ديفيد حيث تعهد بالعمل مع الكونجرس لتوفير‬ ‫مساعدات تقدر بـ ‪ ٣‬مليار دوالر تقسم على خمس سنوات كل عام ‪ 111‬مليون دوالر بدءاً من ‪211٥‬م‪ ،‬تقسم بالتساوي‬ ‫[‪[٣٤‬‬ ‫بين مساعدات عسكرية وإقتصادية‪.‬‬ ‫أشارت تقارير أخرى أنه في العام المالي ‪2111‬م‪ ،‬زادت المساعدات خمسة أضعاف وفي العام المالي ‪2112‬م‪( ،‬األول‬ ‫بعد احداث ‪ ١١‬سبتمبر) ازدادت المساعدات ‪ ١١‬ضعف (‪ 2111‬مليون دوالر)‪ .‬زادت المساعدات ما بين ‪2111‬‬ ‫و‪21١1‬م‪ .‬مثلت المساعدات االمريكية في ‪ 21١1‬زيادة ‪ %2١8٥‬مقارنة بمستواها قبل احداث ‪ ١١‬سبتمبر‪ .‬في العام‬ ‫المالي ‪ 21١1‬صُنفت باكستان ثاني أكبر دولة تتلقى المساعدات من الواليات المتحدة بعد إسرائيل‪.‬‬ ‫األهداف اإلستراتيجية للمساعدات‪:‬‬ ‫ترسل الواليات المتحدة المساعدات لباكستان للعديد من االهداف اإلستراتيجية التي تتعلق باألمن القومي األمريكي أال‬ ‫وهي‪:‬‬ ‫• تفكيك شبكات اإلرهابيين في أفغانستان وباألخص في باكستان من أجل تقليل قدراتهم على التخطيط وعلى شن هجمات‬ ‫إرهابية عالمية‪.‬‬ ‫• المساعدة في وجود حكومة أكثر قدرة ومسئولية وفاعلية في أفغانستان من أجل خدمة الشعب األفغاني‪ ،‬وتستطيع تلك‬ ‫الحكومة في النهاية أن تعمل بصورة فاعلة وبخاصة فيما يتعلق بنواحي األمن الداخلي وبدعم دولي محدود فيما بعد‪.‬‬ ‫• تطوير قوات أمن أفغانية تستطيع اإلعتماد على ذاتها وتستطيع أن تقود عمليات مكافحة التمرد واإلرهاب حتى بعد‬ ‫تخفيض المساعدات األمريكية‪.‬‬ ‫• دعم جهود تحسين السيطرة المدنية وإنشاء حكومة دستورية مستقرة في باكستان باقتصاد نشط يستطيع أن يوفر فرصًا‬ ‫أفضل للشعب الباكستاني‪.‬‬ ‫• إشراك المجتمع الدولي في عمليات المساعدات النشطة من أجل تحقيق تلك األهداف في أفغانستان وباكستان‪ ،‬بدور‬ ‫قيادي هام من األمم المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫[‪]٣٥‬‬ ‫• تنفيذ وتمويل استراتيجية متكاملة مدنية وعسكرية لمكافحة التمرد في أفغانستان‪.‬‬ ‫ومن ناحية أخرى‪ ،‬يرى البعض أن تلك المساعدات لم تؤتي ثمارها حيث أصدر "المركز األمريكي للدراسات‬ ‫اإلستراتيجية والدولية" دراسةً في مطلع عام ‪211٧‬م‪ ،‬تحت عنوان "حينما ال تكفي ‪ ١1‬بليون دوالر‪ :‬إعادة التفكير في‬ ‫‪34The Foreign Operations FY2005 Appropriations bill (P.L. 108-447) established a new “base program” of $300 million for‬‬ ‫‪military assistance for Pakistan‬‬ ‫‪35" . http://www.arab-center.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=110:us-7-1&catid=48:us-7&Itemid=97‬‬ ‫‪"(accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫اإلستراتيجية األمريكية تجاه باكستان"‪.‬‬ ‫تقول الدراسة في مُجملها إن المساعدات األمريكية إلى دولة باكستان ال تعكس إستراتيجية أمريكية مُتسقة‪ .‬فعلى الرغم من‬ ‫العالقات التاريخية واإلقتصادية التي تجمع بين البلدين‪ ،‬إال أن اإلدارة األمريكية فشلت في تفعيل قوتها الرخوة في‬ ‫باكستان‪ ،‬كما ينبغي‪.‬‬ ‫يوضح الباحثان اللذان قاما بهذه الدراسة‪ ،‬وهما "كريج كوهين" و"ديريك شوليت"‪ ،‬أن المعونة األمريكية الهائلة للجيش‬ ‫الباكستاني لم تُعن واشنطن ‪ -‬حتى اآلن ‪ -‬على التأثير في األحداث الجارية بباكستان‪ .‬فعلى الرغم من ازدياد تلك المعونة‪،‬‬ ‫وبلوغها ‪ -‬منذ أحداث الحادي عشر من سبتمبر ‪211١‬م‪ ،‬إلى أكثر من ‪ ١1‬بليون دوالر (بمعدل حوالي ‪ 2‬بليون دوالر‬ ‫سنوياً) ‪ ،‬وعلى الرغم من تحول األراضي الباكستانية إلى الساحة األولى واألكبر لقتلى تنظيم "القاعدة"‪ ،‬إال أن اإلدارة‬ ‫[‪[٣1‬‬ ‫األمريكية لم تفلح أو لم تفعل ما يكفي لترسيخ عالقتها مع باكستان على المدى البعيد‪.‬‬ ‫كذلك يعتقد فريق في اإلدارة األمريكية وفي الكونجرس أن النظام الباكستاني يمارس دوراً مزدوجاً في التعامل مع‬ ‫الواليات المتحدة؛ فهو من جهة يريد إظهار نفسه داعماً للسياسة األمريكية تجاه ما تسميه أمريكا إرهاباً وأنه في إمكانه أن‬ ‫يذهب معها إلى أقصى ما تريده الوالي ات المتحدة منه وفي الوقت نفسه فإن الجيش الباكستاني يدرك جيداً أن مصلحته‬ ‫اإلستراتيجية في وجود طالبان والقاعدة وأنها هي الورقة التي يلعب بها‪ ،‬فإذا فقدها فإن أمريكا وحلفاءها سوف يستديرون‬ ‫عليه ليقضوا على قدراته‪.‬‬ ‫و لذلك كان الهدف األمريكي دائما يتركز حول كيفية التعامل مع هذه اإلزدواجية‪ ،‬ففي مايو من عام ‪2119‬م‪ ،‬وفي جلسة‬ ‫استماع أمام اللجنة حول اإلستراتيجية األميركية حيال باكستان أشار الممثل األميركي الخاص ألفغانستان وباكستان‬ ‫ريتشارد هولبروك إلى أن الواليات المتحدة تقوم بتعزيز الطاقات المدنية في باكستان واإلمكانات الحكومية مع تخصيص‬ ‫المزيد من الموارد لمجابهة التحدي ات االقتصادية وتلك المتعلقة بالحكم الرشيد في باكستان مع بناء قدرات مكافحة التمرد‬ ‫والقضاء على مالذ المتشددين والتنسيق اإلستراتيجي في مجال المعلومات ومجابهة األداة اإلعالمية لإلرهابيين ودعم‬ ‫التشريع الخاص بتقديم المساعدات لباكستان وربطها باإللتزام الحكومي بالقضاء على القاعدة والجماعات المتطرفة على‬ ‫[‪[٣٧‬‬ ‫الحدود ووضع معايير لقياس مدى االلتزام الباكستاني بتحقيق هذه األهداف‪.‬‬ ‫أي أن هولبروك وضع ربط المساعدات األمريكية بااللتزام الباكستاني بالقضاء على القاعدة والجماعات العسكرية وفق‬ ‫المعايير األمريكية على حد قوله‪.‬‬ ‫كما يطالب العديد من الجمهوريين بقطع المعونة ويقترحون تشريع ينص على قطع المساعدات المستقبلية لباكستان الي أن‬ ‫تقر وزارة الخارجية أن باكستان لم تكن توفر مالذ لبن الدن‪ .‬وعلى الجانب األخر يطالب بعض الديمقراطيين بقطع‬ ‫المعونة أيضاً‪ .‬إال أن ادارة اوباما طلبت ‪ ٣‬مليار دوالر كمساعدات لباكستان في العام المالي ‪ 21١2‬منها ‪ 2.٣‬مليار دوالر‬ ‫تمويل لقدرة باكستان على محاربة اإلرهاب‪ .‬على النقيض صرحت وزيرة الخارجية األمريكية وقتها‪ ،‬هيالري‬ ‫[‪[٣8‬‬ ‫كلينتون‪"،‬التعاون الباكستاني ساعد في ارشادنا الى بن الدن ومخبأه "‪.‬‬

‫‪36 http://www.siironline.org/alabwab/derasat(01)/389.htm (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪37 http://www.albayan.co.uk/article2.aspx?id=829 (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪38 "After Osama bin Laden's death, Congress rethinks aid to Pakistan" CS Monitor.‬‬ ‫‪http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/0503/After-Osama-bin-Laden-s-death-Congress-rethinks-aid-to-Pakistan/%28page%29/3‬‬ ‫‪(accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫‪ ‬المشاكل األساسية فى باكستان‬ ‫طالبان فى باكستان و جماعات راديكالية أخرى (القاعدة)‪:‬‬ ‫يوجد العديد من الجماعات اإلسالمية في باكستان و التي تشكل تهديدا لألمن القومي األمريكي وهي‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬الجماعة اإلسالمية في باكستان‬ ‫الجماعة اإلسالمية في باكستان جماعة إسالمية سنية تعمل في باكستان تتبني المنهج السلمي‪ ،‬أسسها أبو األعلي المودودي‬ ‫عام ‪١9٤١‬م‪ .‬وهى ذات فكر مشترك وتنتهج نفس نهج جماعة اإلخوان المسلمين‪ .‬بلغ تعداد الجماعة ‪ 1‬ماليين فرد مؤيد‬ ‫و‪ 2٥‬ألف فرد عامل جاء ذلك على لسان أمير الجماعة سيد منور حسن ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬طالبان في باكستان‬ ‫طالبان باكستان هي حركة تحت مظلة حركة طالبان‪ ،‬وهي طرف أساسي في صراع مع الحكومة المركزية‬ ‫الباكستانية[‪ .[٣9‬ومن بين ما ت قوم به هذه المجموعة المواجهة مع الجيش الباكستاني‪ ،‬محاوالتها لفرض تطبيق ما تصفه‬ ‫[‪[٤1‬‬ ‫بالشريعة في باكستان ومحاربة قوات الناتو في أفغانستان‪.‬‬ ‫تشكلت بداية هذه الحركة في ‪2112‬م‪ ،‬حين قام الجيش الباكستاني بفرض سيطرته على منطقة القبائل بغرض وقف تنقل‬ ‫المسلحين على الحدود مع أفغانستان‪ .‬وفي ‪211٧‬م‪ ،‬أعلن تشكيل تلك الحركة رسميا بقيادة بيت اهلل محسود‪.‬‬ ‫يقدر عدد المقاتلين في صفوفها ما بين ‪ ٣1‬و‪ ٣٥‬ألف مسلح معظمهم من خريجي ومنتسبي المدارس الدينية‪ ،‬التي تتبع‬ ‫[‪[٤١‬‬ ‫المدرسة الديوبندية وتدرس فقه اإلمام أبو حنيفة‪.‬‬ ‫التنظيم رغم احتفاظه حتى اآلن باسم حركة طالبان باكستان في وسائل اإلعالم غيّر اسمه إلى "مجلس شورى المجاهدين"‬ ‫يوم ‪ 2٣‬فبراير ‪2119‬م‪ ،‬إثر توحد قادة ثالثة تنظيمات رئيسية تحمل اسم حركة طالبان باكستان هم بيت اهلل محسود‬ ‫وحافظ غل بهادر ومولوي نذير‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬شبكة الحقاني‬ ‫أدرجت الواليات المتحدة على الئحة المنظمات االرهابية شبكة حقاني لتصبح فيما بعد من حلفاء القاعدة وربما أخطر فصيل‬ ‫في طالبان األفغانية‪.‬‬ ‫لكن يخشى من أن يؤدي ذلك إلى جر باكستان‪ ،‬حيث يتواجد قادة الشبكة‪ ،‬أكثر فأكثر نحو وضع الدولة الراعية لإلرهاب‬ ‫[‪[٤2‬‬ ‫ويقوض فرص محادثات سالم مع طالبان وأي فرصة نحو انهاء الحرب في أفغانستان‪.‬‬ ‫ما هي شبكة الحقاني؟‬ ‫شبكة حقاني هى جماعة مسلحة تضم أكثر من ‪ ١1‬آالف مقاتل‪ ،‬متحالفة مع طالبان أنشأها جالل الدين حقاني الذي برز اسمه‬ ‫في عقد الثمانينيات‪ ،‬وحصل على دعم من الواليات المتحدة والمملكة العربية السعودية لقتال القوات السوفيتية إبان احتاللها‬ ‫ألفغانستان في ثمانينيات القرن الماضي‪ .‬وهي من أكثر جماعات التمرد مهابة في الشريط القبلي وأفغانستان‪.‬‬ ‫‪39 Abbas, Hassan (January 2008). "A Profile of Tehrik-I-Taliban Pakistan" (PDF). CTC Sentinel (West Point, NY: Combating‬‬ ‫‪Terrorism Center). Retrieved 2008-11-08‬‬ ‫‪41 Pakistan and Afghan Taliban Close Ranks, New York Times, Retrieved 2009-03-27‬‬ ‫‪41 Pakistani Taliban Al Jazeera NetRetrieved May 24, 2009‬‬ ‫‪42 http://www.assakina.com/center/parties/9762.html (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫تتبع حركة طالبان‪ ،‬وتعمل إنطالقا من شمال وزيرستان في المناطق القبلية الخاضعة لإلدارة اإلتحادية لباكستان‪ .‬وتحتل شبكة‬ ‫حقاني موقعا في طليعة نشاط المتمردين في أفغانستان‪ ،‬وهي مسؤولة عن شن الكثيرمن الهجمات الكبرى حيث تتهم الواليات‬ ‫المتحدة الشبكة بتنفيذ عدد من ابرز الهجمات فى أفغانستان مثل حصار السفارة األمريكية عام ‪21١١‬م‪.‬‬ ‫ورغم أن شبكة حقانى تعتبر جزءا من المظلة األوسع لطالبان التي يقودها المال محمد عمر‪ ،‬فإن شبكة حقاني تحتفظ‬ ‫بخطوطها الخاصة للقيادة والعمليات‪ .‬وتركز معظم نشاطها العسكري في شرقي أفغانستان خاصة في واليات بكتيا وبكتيك‬ ‫اوخوست‪ ،‬وامتد إلى واليات أخرى مثل وردك‪.‬‬ ‫وتُعرف جماعة حقاني بشراستها في القتال‪ ،‬حتى بمعايير "التمرد" األفغاني‪ ،‬ويعتقد أنها هي أول من أدخل التفجيرات‬ ‫اإلنتحارية إلى أفغانستان‪.‬‬ ‫ تحصل جماعة حقانى على مواردها من ثالثة مصادر‪:‬‬‫هي التبرعات التي تأتيها من الخليج‪ ،‬ومبيعات المخدرات‪ ،‬والمبالغ التي يقدمها تنظيم القاعدة‪.‬‬ ‫ الخطر فى إدراج حقانى كمنظمة إرهابية هو أن ذلك قد يؤدى الى مزيد من التوتر فى عالقة أسالم آباد بواشنطن حيث أن‬‫[‪[٤٣‬‬ ‫ذلك قد يعنى فرض المزيد من العقوبات على باكستان‪.‬‬ ‫تبعات اغتيال أسامة بن الدن‪:‬‬ ‫أكثر من عام مضى على مقتل أسامة بن الدن الرجل الذي تصدر قائمة المطلوبين لسنوات‪ ،‬وكان يشكل خطرا رئيسيا‬ ‫بالنسبة للواليات المتحدة‪ .‬مما ال شك فيه أن مقتل بن الدن أحدث فجوة كبيرة في صفوف تنظيم القاعدة‪ .‬ورغم تحدث‬ ‫بعض التقارير عن تخلي بن الدن عن العمل القيادي قبل مقتله‪ ،‬فإن اغتياله لم يسهم في تقليص شعبية تنظيم القاعدة في‬ ‫الشارع الباكستاني‪ ،‬بل زاد التعاطف مع التنظيم‪ ،‬وزاد من مشاعر العداء للواليات المتحدة‪ .‬فالشارع الباكستاني بات ينقسم‬ ‫إلى ثالثة اقسام‪ :‬األول يرى أن أ سامة بن الدن كان شخصا صالحا ذا نوايا حسنة‪ ،‬وهمه مصلحة اإلسالم والمسلمين‪ ،‬بل‬ ‫ذهب هذا القسم إلى الدفاع عن بن الدن‪ ،‬ورد أقوال الرئيس األمريكي بارك أوباما التي رأت فيها هذه الشريحة محاولة‬ ‫لتشويه سمعة "بطل اسالمي" على حد وصفهم‪ .‬أما القسم الثاني فكان مؤيدا الغتيال بن الدن‪ ،‬ويقول إن إغتياله تأخر‬ ‫كثيرا‪ .‬ومن وجهة نظر هذه الشريحة‪ ،‬ما قام به بن الدن من أعمال إرهابية‪ ،‬ال زال يعاني المسلمون من أثارها وتبعاتها‬ ‫السلببية على حد تعبيرها‪ ،‬بل هي سبب لما تعانيه باكستان وأفغانستان من أزمات‪.‬أما القسم الثالث فبات يؤمن بنظرية‬ ‫المؤامرة‪ ،‬وحسب اعتقاد هؤالء فان اسامة بن الدن ليس إال عميل لجهاز االستخبارات األمريكية‪ ،‬تم استخدامه لتحقيق‬ ‫الواليات المتحدة األمريكية ألهدافها في المنطقة‪ ،‬وسعت للتخلص منه عندما حققت تلك األهداف‪.‬‬ ‫مراكز أبحاث‪:‬‬ ‫وبعد مرورأكثر من عام على مقتل بن الدن‪ ،‬فإن الدراسات التي نشرتها مختلف مراكز األبحاث الغربية بصفة عامة‬ ‫واألمريكية بصفة خاصة‪ ،‬تشير إلى أن تنظيم القاعدة الزال يشكل تهديداً على األمن القومي األمريكي‪ ،‬رغم مقتل زعيمه‪،‬‬ ‫تهديدا ليس على الداخل األمريكي فحسب‪ ،‬وإنما على المصالح األمريكية في أنحاء العالم‪ .‬وتفند هذه التقييمات ما تقوله‬ ‫إدارة الرئيس األمريكي باراك أوباما بالنجاح في القضاء على تنظيم القاعدة‪ ،‬وهي أطروحات تمثل في نظر الكثيرين أنها‬ ‫كانت فرصة يعزز من خاللها أوباما ترشحه لوالية ثانية في اإلنتخابات الرئاسية األمريكية‪ ،‬للحصول على قدر أكبر من‬ ‫أصوات الناخبين‪ .‬إال أن الواقع الذي نشهده يقول إن نفوذ الجماعات المتطرفة قد زاد‪ ،‬وليس شرطاً أن يكون هذا اإلزدياد‬ ‫ناجما فقط عن مقتل بن الدن‪ ،‬بل هناك عدد من العوامل األخرى ساهمت في ذلك‪ ،‬وأهم هذه العوامل سماح السلطات‬ ‫‪43 http://www.bbc.co.uk/arabic/worldnews/2011/09/110922_us_mullen_haqqani.shtml (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫الباكستانية لمثل هذه الجماعات والتنظيمات بالعمل من داخل األراضي الباكستانية‪ ،‬رغم نفي الجهات الرسمية بشكل‬ ‫متكرر لمثل هذه المزاعم‪ .‬ومع تأخر نتائج التحقيقات التي تجريها لجنة أبوت آباد برئاسة القاضي المتقاعد جويد إقبال‪ ،‬فإن‬ ‫مالبسات عملية اغتيال بن الدن وتواجده داخل األراضي الباكستانية ال زالت غامضة‪ .‬وتبقى الشكوك حول تواطؤ محتمل‬ ‫ألجهزة االستخبارات الباكستانية في إخفاء بن الدن طيلة السنوات الماضية قائمة‪ ،‬لكن حيثيات هذا التواطؤ المحتمل تبقى‬ ‫غير معلومة مع غياب األدلة السيما أن الجانب األمريكي أكد على عدم وجود أدلة تشير إلى تورط باكستان‪ .‬ومع ذلك فإن‬ ‫المروجين لنظرية تورط المخابرات الباكستانية يثيرون تساؤال مهما‪ ،‬وهو‪ :‬كيف يمكن لشخص مثل بن الدن المطلوب‬ ‫عالميا االختباء قرب أكاديمية عسكرية دون مساعدة أو علم السلطات الباكستانية؟!‬ ‫إنجاز أمريكي‬ ‫مقتل بن الدن في عملية نفذتها قوات النخبة األمريكية داخل األراضي الباكستانية في مايو ‪21١١‬م‪ ،‬قد تكون له ثمار‬ ‫إيجابية بالنسبة للواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬والوجود األمريكي في أفغانستان‪ .‬فقد منح مقتل بن الدن اإلدارة األمريكية قوة تمكنها من‬ ‫القول في هذا الوقت الحساس الذي تخوض فيه القوات األمريكية قتاالً ضد طالبان والقاعدة‪ ،‬إن هدف الحرب التي بدأت‬ ‫قبل قرابة عقد من الزمن قد تحقق‪ ،‬مما يسهل ويمهد عملية انسحاب القوات األمريكية والدولية من أفغانستان بحلول صيف‬ ‫[‪[٤٤‬‬ ‫عام ‪21١٤‬م‪ ،‬ويضمن في الوقت ذاته انسحاباً مشرفا لهذه القوات‪.‬‬ ‫عالقات على المحك‬ ‫أ سهمت الغارات الصاروخية في تكبيل وشل نشاط قيادات القاعدة المتواجدة في باكستان على طول الحدود الوعرة‬ ‫المشتركة مع أفغانستان‪ ،‬خاصة منطقة وزيرستان الشمالية والجنوبية‪ ،‬ونجحت هذه الغارات التي تشنها طائرات تجسس‬ ‫بدون طيار‪ ،‬تحت إشراف وكالة االستخبارات األمريكية (‪ )AIC‬في تصفية عدد من رموز وقيادات القاعدة‪ ،‬وهو ما‬ ‫تعتبره الواليات المتحدة إنجازا كبيرا في الحرب الجارية ضد ما يوصف باإلرهاب‪ .‬لكن تبقى هذه الغارات نقطة خالف‬ ‫بين باكستان وحليفتها األمريكية‪ ،‬إذ ترى فيها باكستان انتهاكا لسيادة أراضيها‪ ،‬بينما تراها واشنطن قانونية وشرعية لما‬ ‫تحققه من نتائج إيجابية‪ ،‬بالرغم من تنديد السلطات الباكستانية وإدانتها لهذه الغارات التي حسب قولها تؤدي إلى سقوط‬ ‫العديد من األبرياء‪ .‬فقد ساهمت بارتفاع حدة التوتر في العالقات األمريكية الباكستانية شعبيا ورسميا‪ ،‬خاصة بعد الغارة‬ ‫األمريكية في السادس والعشرين من نوفمبر‪ 21١١‬التي استهدفت نقطة حراسة تابعة للجيش الباكستاني في منطقة ساللة‬ ‫الواقعة في منطقة مهمند القبلية المحاذية للحدود مع أفغانستان‪ ،‬وأسفرت عن مقتل ‪ 21‬جنديا باكستانياً‪ .‬وساهمت هذه‬ ‫"االنتهاكات" األمريكية المتكررة إلى حد كبير في نزع ثقة الشارع الباكستاني بالحكومة والمؤسسة العسكرية‪ ،‬وبحسب‬ ‫قول الرائد المتقاعد والخبير العسكري محمد مجتبا فإن "تهاون الحكومة والجيش في الحفا على السيادة الوطنية‬ ‫الباكستانية‪ ،‬عزز من هذه المشاعر الشعبية‪ ،‬مما دفع الحكومة والعسكر إلى تبني الموقف الشعبي المطالب بضرورة وقف‬ ‫هذه الغارات‪".‬‬ ‫حادثة ساللة جاءت لتزيد من تأزم العالقة بين واشنطن وإسالم آباد‪ ،‬فقد ذهبت األخيرة إلى إغالق معابرها الحدودية في‬ ‫وجه إمدادات قوات حلف شمال األطلسي العاملة في أفغانستان‪ ،‬كإجراء احتجاجي على االنتهكات المتكررة لسيادة‬ ‫باكستان‪ ،‬فيما ذهب الساسة في باكستان إلى إعادة النظر في طبيعة التعاون مع الواليات المتحدة‪.‬‬

‫‪44 Foust, J. "Osama bin Laden’s death and its impact on U.S. foreign policy " PBS. http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/five‬‬‫‪things/osama-bin-ladens-death-and-its-impact-on-u-s-foreign-policy/9057 (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫‪ ‬خيارات الواليات المتحدة اإلستراتيجية فى باكستان‪:‬‬

‫تتلخص خيارات الواليات المتحدة اإلستراتيجية فى التحكم فى المساعدات السنوية المعطاة الى باكستان ووضع بعض‬ ‫اإلشتراطات عليها إلجبارها على تنفيذ األجندة األمريكية فى المنطقة‪ .‬ربما إستخدام صفقات األسلحة فى الضغط‬ ‫والمساومة السياسية‪ ،‬أو التهديد بوقف التعاون العسكرى تماماً‪ .‬الحفا على خط إمدادات الناتو ربما هو اإلهتمام األمريكى‬ ‫األكبر على المدى القريب‪ ،‬والحفا على التعاون اإلستخباراتى ضد طالبان كذلك‪ .‬التحدث عن عمليات القصف للقبائل‬ ‫الباكستانيه على الحدود مع أفغانستان من قبل طائرات أمريكية بدون طيار هو أمر أساسى بسبب العواقب الكبيرة لهذه‬ ‫الضربات على العالقات الثنائية‪.‬‬ ‫إيقاف النفوذ الصينى من النمو فى باكستان سيكون محور اهتمام قوى‪ ،‬وربما إستخدام التأثير الهندى على باكستان إلجبار‬ ‫األخيرة على اإلنصياع لرغبات الواليات المتحدة سيكون إستراتيجية ذكية‪.‬‬ ‫الخيار المباشر بتدمير الترسانه النووية الباكستانية يبقى مطروحاً من قبل البعض‪ ،‬ولكن المخاطرة بالدخول فى صراع مع‬ ‫باكستان وربما الصين‪ ،‬يبقيه خيارًا مؤرقاً لصانعى القرار األمريكيين‪.‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫العراق‪ :‬أخطاء الماضى‪ ،‬مأساة الحاضر‬

‫‪ ‬التمهيد‬ ‫صراعات ال تهدأ من أجل سالم ال يبدأ!‬ ‫يعتبرالشرق األوسط هو أحد أوجه التجسيد الحى لهذا الشعا‪ ،‬فهو من أكثر مناطق العالم توتراً من الناحية األمنية‪ ،‬حيث‬ ‫شهد أكثر من ‪ ١1‬حروب كبيرة فى أقل من قرن منها الحروب العربية اإلسرائيلية والحروب العراقية اإليرانية وغزو‬ ‫العراق للكويت وشهد غزو العراق ‪ 211٣‬واإلحتالل األمريكي البريطاني لدولة العراق والمشكلة النووية اإليرانية‬ ‫واإلحتالل اإلسرائيلي لفلسطين والحرب اإلسرائيلية على لبنان وال نستطيع التكهن بأن الحروب في هذه المنطقة ستنتهي‬ ‫لما لها من أهمية اقتصادية وإستراتيجية ومصالح دولية كبرى ومتضاربة‪.‬‬ ‫سميت هذه المنطقة في عهد اإلكتشافات الجغرافية من قبل المستكشفين الجغرافيين بالعالم القديم وهي مهد الحضارات‬ ‫اإلنسانية وكذلك مهد جميع الديانات السماوية‪.‬‬ ‫التكوين الديموغرافى للمنطقة ليس بالتعقيد الموجود فى آسيا أو أوروبا‪ ،‬األمر الذى ربما يكسبها خصوصية إستراتيجية‪.‬‬ ‫الخلفية الدينية للمنطقة ذات األغلبية اإلسالمية الكاسحة تلعب الدور األكبر فى التركيبة الشخصية لشعوبها‪ .‬أغلب دول‬ ‫المنطقه تتكلم اللغة العربية كلغة أولى مع بعض اللغات الثانوية األخرى‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى أن المنطقة عامةً كانت فى فترة‬ ‫تقترب من األلف عام تقع تحت لواء دولة واحدة‪ ،‬ما بين الدولة األموية والعباسية إنتها ًء باإلمبراطورية العثمانية‪.‬‬ ‫بإعتبارها مهداً للحضارات والموطن األصلى للديانات اإلبراهيمية التى يدين بها ثلثى سكان العالم الحالى‪ ،‬كان الشرق‬ ‫‪33‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫األوسط مسرحاً لحروب دينية كبيرة‪ ،‬منذ بداية العصر اإلسالمى الذهبى المصحوب بفتوحات كبيرة وإتساع رقعة الدولة‬ ‫اإلسالمية بمعدل إستعصى على المؤرخين تفسيرة‪ ،‬مروراً بالغزو الصليبى إنتهاءً بإعالن قيام دولة إسرائيل اليهودية على‬ ‫أساس دينى بحت‪ ،‬واإلشتعال الذى صاحب هذا اإلعالن‪.‬‬ ‫فى بداية القرن الثامن عشر ظهرت الثورة الصناعية فى أوروبا والتى ألقت الضوء على أهمية البحث عن الموارد‬ ‫والتوسع اإلمبريالى‪ ،‬وبالتالى التجا رة مع مناطق غنية بالموارد المطلوبة‪ ،‬مثل آسيا‪ ،‬ما وضع الشرق األوسط فى قلب‬ ‫طريق التجارة بين اإلمبراطورية البريطانية ونظيرتها الفرنسية والقوى األوروبية العظمى مع شبه الجزيرة الهندية‪ .‬ومع‬ ‫هذه األهمية الجديدة‪ ،‬أصبح الشرق األوسط المُستقبِل الرئيسى للحمالت األوروبية اإلستعمارية لتأمين طرق التجارة‪،‬‬ ‫والمسرح الرئيسى لتصفية الحسابات العسكرية واإلقتصادية بين الدول األوروبية‪ .‬تطور األمر ليكون الشرق األوسط جزء‬ ‫من حروب لم يكن له ناقةً فيها وال جمل فى الحرب العالميه األولى و تابعتها الثانيه األكثر تدميراً‪ .‬ومع بداية القرن‬ ‫الماضى‪ ،‬إزدادت األهمية اإلستراتيجية للشرق األوسط بصورة كبيرة بإكتشاف إحتياطيات بترولية هى األكبر وقتها‪ ،‬فى‬ ‫وقت كان البترول يتحول بصورة سريعة الى مصدر الطاقة العالمى األساسى‪.‬‬ ‫الشرق األوسط هو المركز الثابت ألكثر من مليار ونصف مسلم‪ ،‬ما يجعل الصراعات فيه ذات تأثير عالمى كبير‪ ،‬نظرًا‬ ‫إلتساع رقعة المسلمين خارجه‪ .‬أى أن ما حدث أو يحدث فى الشرق األوسط لم ولن يظل بأى حال من األحوال داخله‪،‬‬ ‫وللسبب ذاته‪ ،‬أى صراع فى أى منطقه فى العالم له طرف إسالمى سينعكس داخل الشرق األوسط‪ ،‬وفى بعض اإلحيان‬ ‫بصورة أقوى من خارجه‪ ،‬و هو ما يمكن ألبسط متابع لألحداث إستنتاجه‪.‬‬ ‫تضارب المصالح وتسارع األحداث وتغير الخريطة بشكل درامى باإلضافة إلى التعقيدات السابقة‪ ،‬يجعل الشرق األوسط‬ ‫فى طليعة مناقشة األهداف اإلستراتيجية للسياسة الخارجية ألى قوة سياسية فاعلة‪ .‬كما توصف الصراعات فى المنطقه من‬ ‫قبل معظم الخبراء والمحللين باإلستحالة فى الحل‪ .‬األمر الذى يجعل من المنطقة مادة إخبارية دسمة‪ ،‬وأساس أكاديمى ثابت‬ ‫فى دراسة المصالح السياسية العالمية‪.‬‬ ‫األهداف اإلستراتيجية األمريكية فى الشرق األوسط‪:‬‬ ‫يشكل الشرق األوسط تحدى كبير للسياسة الخارجية األمريكية الهادفة إلى الحفا على المصالح واألهداف اإلستراتيجية‬ ‫األمريكية طويلة األمد فى المنطقة‪ .‬من وجهة نظر سياسية أكاديمية‪ ،‬تعتمد السياسة الخارجية ألى بلد على مصالح وأهداف‬ ‫ثابتة تتطلب سياسات طويلة األمد‪ ،‬باإلضافه إلى معالجة األزمات والمشاكل الملحة بسياسات قصيرة األمد ومضمونة‬ ‫النتيجة‪ .‬التحدى فى الشرق األوسط هو تسارع األحداث فيه بصورة درامية والحاجة الملحة لدى الساسة والدبلوماسيين فى‬ ‫تطوير سياسات قصيرة وسريعة المفعول‪ ،‬لحل المشاكل المفاجئة الناتجة عن هذا التسارع‪ .‬ويعتبر الكاتب والسياسى‬ ‫األمريكى المرموق "هنرى كيسنجر" أن هذه السياسات القصيرة وهذه المشاكل الكثيرة ربما ألهت الساسة األمريكيين عن‬ ‫األهداف اإلستراتيجية األمريكية األساسية فى المنطقة‪ ،‬واألسباب الرئيسية لتواجد الواليات المتحدة فيها فى األصل‪.‬‬ ‫عندما إنتُخِبَ باراك أوباما كرئيس للواليات المتحدة فى ‪2118‬م‪ ،‬إهتم بإعادة صياغة السياسة األمريكية فى الشرق‬ ‫األوسط لمعالجة المشاكل الملحة التى أوقعه فيها سلفه‪ ،‬والتى كان أبرزها النجاح المبهر فى تصوير الحرب األمريكية على‬ ‫اإلرهاب‪ ،‬كحرب على اإلسالم‪ ،‬وهو ربما الفخ الذى نصبه بن الدن إلدارة بوش‪ ،‬من وجهة نظر كيسنجر‪ .‬ولكن لفترةٍ ما‬ ‫تناست إدارة أوباما األهداف اإلستراتيجية طويلة األمد فى المنطقة‪ ،‬التى يجب العمل عليها‪ ،‬األمرالذى دفع ببعض هذه‬ ‫المصالح فى التأثر سلبيًا من وجهة نظر بعض المحللين‪.‬‬ ‫إن تم حصر هذه المصالح ربما ستتمركز حول‪:‬‬ ‫تأمين اإلمدادات المستمرة من البترول و حمايتها من تهديدات اإليقاف‪.‬‬ ‫‪.١‬‬ ‫وربما الهم األمريكى األكبر سيكون التحكم فى هذه اإلمدادات ليس من حيث الكميه فقط ولكن التركيز على األسعار أيضًا‬ ‫لحماية الميزانية األمريكية من اإلرتفاعات المطردة ألسعار البترول فى إستجابه سريعه ألى إضطرابات فى المنطقة‪.‬‬ ‫‪34‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫‪.2‬‬ ‫‪.٣‬‬ ‫‪.٤‬‬ ‫‪.٥‬‬ ‫‪.1‬‬

‫السيطرة على تنامى النف وذ اإليرانى فى الشرق األوسط وتحجيمه يعد أحد أهم أهداف السياسة األمريكية طويلة‬ ‫األمد فى المنطقة‪.‬‬ ‫حماية اإلمتداد األمريكى فى المنطقة المتمثل فى إسرائيل‪.‬‬ ‫ل من اليمن و العراق باإلضافة إلى لبنان‪.‬‬ ‫السيطرة على الجماعات اإلرهابيه النشطه بشده فى ك ٍ‬ ‫منع نشوء إتحاد سياسى واسع النطاق فى المنطقة معادى للمصالح األمريكية‪ ،‬وربما تمثل إيران والعراق وسوريا‬ ‫ولبنان بذرة لهذا التحالف‪.‬‬ ‫الحفا على أمن القواعد األمريكية فى الخليج التى تعتبر أرض أمريكية حسب القانون األمريكى‪ ،‬يعتبر من‬ ‫[‪]1‬‬ ‫أساسيات السياسة األمريكية الخارجية تجاه المنطقة‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬تاريخ العراق وعالقته بأمريكا‬ ‫خلفية تاريخية عن العراق ما بعد اإلستقالل وما قبل صدام‬ ‫االستقالل‪١9٣9-١9٣2 ،‬م‪:‬‬ ‫لما كان قادة العراق السياسيين يركزون على إنهاء اإلنتداب بدالً من التركيز على حق اإلستقالل‪ ،‬فقد سعى الملك فيصل‬ ‫الى تعاون قادة المعارضة بعد االستقالل‪ .‬فبعد دخول العراق إلى عصبة األمم إستقال نوري السعيد الذي كان رئيسا‬ ‫للوزراء منذ ‪١9٣1‬م‪ .‬بعد إدارة مؤقتة‪ ،‬دعا الملك فيصل رشيد عالي الكيالني‪ ،‬أحد قادة المعارضة لتشكيل حكومة جديدة‪.‬‬ ‫وبدا لفترة قصيرة أن كل قادة البالد سوف يغلقون الهوة ويوجهون كل جهودهم لإلصالحات الداخلية‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن سرعان ما بدأت النزاعات الداخلية؛ أول حادثة هي ثورة األشوريين في ‪١9٣٣‬م‪ ،‬واألشوريون هم مجموعة صغيرة‬ ‫تسكن في مقاطعة الموصل‪ ،‬كانوا قد وُعِدوا باألمان من قبل بريطانية والعراق‪ .‬بعد إنتهاء اإلنتداب بدأ األشوريون‬ ‫بالشعور بعدم األمان وطالبوا ببعض التأكيدات‪ .‬وبلغت األمور قمتها في صيف ‪١9٣٣‬م‪ ،‬حين كان الملك فيصل في‬ ‫أوروبا‪ .‬وقد أرادت المعارضة التي كانت حينها على رأس السلطة أن تؤثر على الجماهير بإبداء أن للسلطة اليد العليا على‬ ‫تلك االقلية‪ .‬إصطدمت القوات الحكومية مع األشوريين المتمردين وقتلت منهم الكثير‪.‬عُرض الموضوع أمام عصبة األمم‬ ‫بعد أقل من سنة من تعهد العراق بحماية حقوق االقليات‪ .‬وقد قال بعض المؤرخين أنه لو كان الملك فيصل في العراق‬ ‫وقتها لكان تصرف باعتدال‪ .‬بعد عودته إلى العراق وجد أن هناك فرقة عميقة وأن الموقف خارج عن السيطرة‪ .‬ولكونه‬ ‫كان يعاني من مشاكل قلبية فقد عاد الى سويسرا حيث توفي في سبتمبر‪١9٣٣‬م‪ .‬أدت حادثة األشوريين الى سقوط حكومة‬ ‫رشيد عالي الكيالني وأُبدلت حكومته بحكومة أكثر اعتداالً‪.‬‬ ‫خلف الملك فيصل ابنه الملك غازي‪ ،‬وكان شابًا قليل الخبرة‪ ،‬وضعاً منح القادة السياسيين فرصة للصراع على السلطة‪.‬‬ ‫وبدون أ حزاب سياسية لتحديد مجرى فعالياتهم ضمن سياقات دستورية‪ ،‬فقد لجأ السياسيون إلى أساليب فوق الدستورية او‬ ‫إلى العنف‪ .‬إحدى هذه الوسائل كانت إحراج من هم بالسلطة من خالل هجمات صحفية أو مكائد القصر أو بحوادث تؤدي‬ ‫الى خالف حكومي وإجبار رئيس الوزراء على االستقالة‪ .‬أول خمسة تغييرات حكومية بعد اإلستقالل من ‪ ١9٣2‬إلى‬ ‫‪١9٣٤‬م‪ ،‬كانت تلك هي أسبابها‪.‬‬ ‫وهناك أ سلوب اخر وذلك بإشعال الثورات القبلية في مناطق يكون زعيم القبيلة فيها على غير وفاق مع الزمرة الحاكمة‪.‬‬ ‫‪1Kissinger, H. "Obama's Iraq policy must be focused on more than withdrawal" washington post.‬‬ ‫‪http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/02/AR2010020202682.html (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫وبالرغم من أن القبائل هي عادةً ضد السلطة‪ ،‬إال إنها تم تطويعها وبقيت هادئة إلى حد ما بعد ‪١9٣2‬م‪ .‬وعندما بدأ قادة‬ ‫المعارضة يؤلبون العشائر على الحكومة في ‪١9٣٤‬م‪ ،‬فقد ثاروا وتسببوا في سقوط ثالث حكومات من‬ ‫‪١9٣٤‬حتى‪١9٣٥‬م‪.‬‬ ‫اما اإلسلوب الثالث فكان من خالل التدخل العسكري‪ .‬فقد حاولت المعارضة كسب والء ضباط في الجيش والتخطيط‬ ‫إلنقالب عسكري وإرغام المتسلطين في الحكم على االستقالة‪ .‬أثبت هذا األسلوب خطورته‪ ،‬ألنه بمجرد تدخل الجيش‬ ‫بالسياسة يصبح من الصعوبة إعادة تشكيل الحكم المدني‪ .‬حيث سيطر الجيش على السياسة الداخلية منذ ‪١9٣1‬م‪،‬‬ ‫حتى‪١9٤١‬م‪ ،‬حين إنهزم الجيش أمام القوات البريطانية‪ .‬وتدخل الجيش ثانية في ‪١9٥8‬م‪ ،‬واستمر مسيطرا على المشهد‬ ‫السياسي‪.‬‬ ‫قام بأول إنقالب عسكري في ‪١9٣1‬م‪ ،‬نوعان من قادة المعارضة‪ .‬المجموعة األولى يقودها حكمت سليمان كان نموذجا‬ ‫للساسة القدامى الذين يسعون وراء السلطة بأساليب القسوة‪ ،‬وفقاً لبعض المؤرخين‪ .‬والثانية كانت مجموعة من األهالي‬ ‫تتألف أساساً من الشباب الذين كانوا يدعون إلى اإلشتراكية والديمقراطية وسعوا الى تنفيذ برامج إصالحية‪ .‬حث حكمت‬ ‫سليمان الجنرال بكر صدقي قائد إحدى الفرق لشن هجوم مباغت على بغداد بالتعاون مع قائد عسكري آخر وإجبار‬ ‫الحكومة على االستقالة‪ .‬ويبدو أن الملك غازي لم يكن مقتنعا بتلك المجموعة التي في الحكم لذا فقد قبل إستقالة الحكومة‪.‬‬ ‫أصبح حكمت سليمان رئيسا للوزراء في أكتوبر‪١9٣1‬م وعين بكر صدقي رئيساً لألركان‪ .‬إال إنه لم يعد بمقدور مجموعة‬ ‫األهالي أو حكمت سليمان تحسين األوضاع اإلجتماعية لكون الجيش كان قد هيمن تدريجياً على المشهد السياسي‪.‬‬ ‫وبمساندة قادة المعارضة اغتيل بكر صدقي ولكن لم يعاد الحكم المدني‪ .‬لقد أدخل االنقالب العسكري األول عامال جديدا‬ ‫إلى السياسة‪ .‬ذلك أن انعدام القيادة العسكرية بعد اغتيال بكر صدقي جعل الجيش مقسماً‪ ،‬في الوقت الذي لعبت فيه الغيرة‬ ‫بين الضباط القادة دوراً في رفض كل منهم إسناد القيادة لمدنيين‪ .‬اصبح الجيش منذ ‪ ١9٣1‬وحتى‪١9٤١‬م‪ ،‬عامالً مقررا‬ ‫وحاسما في تغيير الحكومات‪.‬‬ ‫بالرغم من انعدام االستقرار السياسي‪ ،‬إال إن تقدما ملموساً كان قد حصل خالل مدة حكم الملك غازي القصيرة‪ .‬فقد أكمل‬ ‫مشروع ري كوت االمارة الذي بُدأ به عام ‪١9٣٤‬م وتم إفتتاح أنابيب النفط التي تمتد من حقول النفط في كركوك إلى‬ ‫البحر المتوسط في عام ‪١9٣٥‬م‪ ،‬وفي عام ‪١9٣٥‬م أيضاً تم شراء خطوط السكك الحديد بالرغم من أنها ظلت تحت‬ ‫السيطرة البريطانية‪ ،‬وتم عام ‪١9٣8‬م إكمال الوصلة الوحيدة الناقصة من خط السكة الحديد الرابط بين الخليج وأووربا‪.‬‬ ‫وكانت هناك زيادة ملحوظة في اإلنشاءات والتجارة الخارجية والوسائل التعليمية‪ .‬وتمت تسوية الكثير من الخالفات مع‬ ‫دول الجوار‪ ،‬من ضمنها النزاع مع إ يران على شط العرب والنزاع الحدودي مع سوريا والذي حسم لصالح العراق‪ ،‬ومن‬ ‫بعد ذلك أُقر جبل سنجار ضمن األراضي العراقية‪ .‬وتم توقيع معاهدة عدم اعتداء سميت معاهدة سعد آباد بين تركيا وإيران‬ ‫وافغانستان والعراق في ‪١9٣٧‬م‪ .‬وفي عام ‪١9٣9‬م‪ ،‬وقبيل نشوب الحرب العالمية الثانية قتل الملك غازي في لغز حادث‬ ‫سيارة وإرتقى ابنه الملك فيصل الثاني إلى العرش‪ .‬ولما كان عمر فيصل أربع سنوات فقط فقد تنصب خاله األمير عبداالله‬ ‫[‪]2‬‬ ‫وصيًا على العرش وبقي على هذه الحال لألربعة عشر سنة التالية‪.‬‬ ‫الملك فيصل الثانى‪:‬‬ ‫وصل إلى السن القانونية فى ‪١9٥٣‬م‪ ،‬و إتسمت فترة حكمه باإلستقرار واإلزدهار السياسى واإلقتصادى والعسكرى‪.‬‬ ‫شهدت فترة حكم الملك فيصل الثانى تأسيس اإلتحاد العربى الذى أصبح هو نفسه رئيسه‪ ،‬وشهد العام نفسه تأسيس أول‬ ‫‪2BUREAU OF NEAR EASTERN AFFAIRS, "U.S. Relations with Iraq" US Department of State.‬‬ ‫‪http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/6804.htm (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫حكومة إتحاد عربى عام ‪.١9٥8‬‬ ‫أُغتيل الملك فى العام نفسه منهيًا فترة الحكم الملكى فى العراق‪.‬‬ ‫عراق صدام‪:‬‬ ‫منذ إنقالب ‪١9٥8‬م‪ ،‬دخل العراق فى فترة عدم إستقرار سياسى تحت سيطرة حكومات عسكرية‪ .‬جلب اإلنقالب عبد‬ ‫الكريم قاسم إلى السلطة‪ ،‬حتى أطيح به فى إنقالب أخر من قبل عبد السالم عارف عام ‪١91٣‬م‪ .‬تولى شقيق عبد السالم‬ ‫عارف‪ ،‬عبد الرحمن عارف السلطة بعد وفاة شقيقه عام ‪١911‬م‪ .‬إنتهت هذه الحلقة بتولى أحمد حسن البكر الرئاسة فى‬ ‫‪١918‬م‪ ،‬بعد اإلطاحة بعارف‪.‬‬ ‫كان من األمور المُسَلم بها أنه بعد تخلي البكر عن الرئاسة عام ‪١9٧9‬م‪ ،‬فان صدام سيخلفه‪ ،‬وذلك بعد أن صار صدام‪،‬‬ ‫نائب البكر وقتها‪ ،‬الرئيس الفعلى منذ تدهور صحة البكر أواخر السبعينيات‪ .‬وعلى أية حال فإن الخالفة لم تمر دون‬ ‫تعقيدات‪ .‬وقد يكون أكثر عاملين معقدين هما قرار الرئيس المصري أنور السادات توقيع معاهدة السالم مع إسرائيل‬ ‫وعرض الرئيس السوري حافظ األسد لقيام وحدة سياسية اقتصادية مع العراق‪.‬‬ ‫وكان اإلرتباط بين األمرين واضحا‪ ً،‬فقد كانت الوحدة العربية من أهداف حزب البعث في كل من سوريا والعراق والتي‬ ‫ظل يسعى لتحقيقها‪ ،‬ولكن األسد لم يدع إلى هذه الوحدة إال بعد حدوث التقارب بين مصر واسرائيل في ‪١9٧٧‬م‪.‬‬ ‫آلت المحادثات في نوفمبر‪١9٧8‬م‪ ،‬إلى توقيع "ميثاق العمل القومي المشترك"‪ ،‬والذي يعلن فيه نية البلدين في إقامة وحدة‬ ‫عسكرية‪ .‬في ‪١9٧9‬م‪ ،‬إتضح أن الهدف النهائي هو إقامة وحدة سياسية‪ .‬تعاون األسد والبكر مع باقي القادة العرب في‬ ‫اتخاذ موقف ثابت ضد السادات‪ .‬وفي مارس‪١9٧9‬م‪ ،‬وعندما وقّع السادات معاهدة سالم مع إسرائيل‪ ،‬كانت مباحثات‬ ‫الوحدة السورية العراقية قد تباطأت‪ .‬كان أكثر العوائق حول دولة الوحدة هو "هل ستكون القيادة عراقية ام سورية؟"‬ ‫وتدهورت بعدها العالقة بين القطرين‪.‬‬ ‫في ‪١1‬يوليو‪١9٧9‬م‪ ،‬في ليلة اإلحتفال بذكرى ثورة ‪١918‬م ‪ ،‬أعلن البكر إستقالته رسميا‪ .‬وتم فوراً إعالن صدام خلفا له‪.‬‬ ‫وأُعلن في ‪ 28‬يوليو عن الكشف عن مؤامرة لقلب نظام الحكم‪ .‬سبق هذا اإلعالن في ‪ ١2‬تموز توقيف محي عبدالحسين‬ ‫المشهدي سكرتير مجلس قيادة الثورة‪ .‬وقد اعترف المشهدي علنا بأنه وعدد من القادة البعثيين‪ ،‬يتضمنهم أربعة أعضاء في‬ ‫مجلس قيادة الثورة بالتآمر لقلب نظام الحكم‪ .‬وقد ادّعى أن حكومة سوريا كانت قد وفرت األموال الالزمة للقيام بأعمالهم‪.‬‬ ‫وقد أُنشات محكمة خاصة وأعدم ‪ 22‬متآمرا؛ وعدد آخر حكم عليه بأحكام في السجن‪ .‬وضعت هذه التطورات نهاية لخطط‬ ‫الوحدة مع سوريا‪.‬‬ ‫شهدت فترة حكم صدام حربى الخليج األولى والثانية‪ .‬فبعد مؤامرة مزعومة إلغتياله‪ ،‬أعلن صدام الحرب على إيران فى‬ ‫صراع إستمر ثمانى سنوات‪ ،‬من ‪ ١981‬حتى ‪ ١988‬م‪ ،‬وراح ضحيته ما بين نصف مليون ومليون ونصف شخص‪ ،‬فيما‬ ‫عُرف بحرب الخليج األولى‪ .‬فى حرب الخليج الثانية قامت ‪ ٣٤‬دولة بإخراج الجيش العراقى من الكويت بعد إحتالله لها‬ ‫فى عام ‪١99١‬م‪ .‬فيما عُرف أيضًا بعملية عاصفة الصحراء بالنسبة للقوات األمريكية التى قادت هذا النزاع‪.‬‬ ‫تاريخ العالقات الثنائية ما بين الواليات المتحدة والعراق لما قبل الغزو‪:‬‬ ‫منذ إنتهاء حرب الخليج الثانية عام ‪١99١‬م‪ ،‬إستمرت العالقات المتوترة بين العراق من جهة والواليات المتحدة والمملكة‬ ‫المتحدة واألمم المتحدة من جهة أخرى وبدأ االئتالف القوي الذي أخرج الجيش العراقي من الكويت بالتصدع ولم يكن من‬ ‫السهولة إصدار قرارات ضد العراق في مجلس األمن باإلجماع كما كان الحال في عام ‪١99١‬م‪ .‬أثناء والية الرئيس‬ ‫األمريكي بيل كلنتون إستمرت الطائرات األمريكية في مراقبتها لمنطقة حظر الطيران وأصدرت اإلدارة األمريكية في‬ ‫أكتوبر ‪١998‬م‪" ،‬قانون تحرير العراق" الذي كان عبارة عن منح ‪ 9٧‬مليون دوالر لقوى "المعارضة الديمقراطية‬ ‫العراقية" وكان بيل كلينتون متفقا مع رئيس الوزراء البريطاني طوني بلير بأن أي عملية عسكرية واسعة النطاق سوف‬ ‫‪37‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫تكون غير مبررة في تلك الظروف وعند مجئ الحزب الجمهوري األمريكي للبيت األبيض قامت وزارة الدفاع ووكالة‬ ‫المخابرات األمريكية بدعم أحمد الجلبي وحزبه المؤتمر الوطني العراقي‪.‬‬ ‫بعد أحداث سبتمبر وإدراج اسم العراق في "محور الشر" بدأت الجهود الدبلوماسية األمريكية بالتحرك لإلطاحة بحكومة‬ ‫صدام حسين‪.‬‬ ‫إعتبرت الواليات المتحدة عودة المفتشين الدوليين عن أسلحة الدمار الشامل شيئا البد منه بعد أحداث ‪ ١١‬سبتمبر‪ .‬في‬ ‫نوفمبر ‪2112‬م‪ ،‬مرر مجلس األمن باإلجماع القرار رقم ‪ ١٤٤١‬الذي دعى إلى عودة لجان التفتيش عن األسلحة إلى‬ ‫العراق وفي حالة رفض العراق التعاون مع هذه اللجان فإنه سيتحمل "عواقب وخيمة"‪ .‬لم يذكر كلمة استعمال القوة في‬ ‫القرار رقم ‪ ،١٤٤١‬وعندما وافق عليه مجلس األمن باإلجماع لم يكن في تصور الدول المصوتة أن العواقب الوخيمة كانت‬ ‫محاولة دبلوماسية من الواليات المتحدة لتشريع الحملة العسكرية ومن الجدير بالذكر أن السكرتير العام لالمم المتحدة‬ ‫[‪]٣‬‬ ‫كوفي عنان صرح بعد سقوط بغداد ان الغزو كان منافياً لدستور األمم المتحدة‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬الحرب على العراق‬

‫قامت الواليات المتحدة األمريكية بتصعيد موقفها ضد العراق عقب أحداث ‪ ١١‬سبتمبر ‪211١‬م‪ ،‬وعقب بدء حملتها ضد‬ ‫اإلرهاب فى أفغانستان في السابع من أكتوبر حيث بدأت الواليات المتحدة األمريكية التلميح بأن المحطة التالية ستكون‬ ‫[‪]٤‬‬ ‫العراق وظهرت بوادر ضرب العراق خالل النصف األول من عام ‪.2112‬‬ ‫تبريرات الغزو االمريكى للعراق‬ ‫من السياسات التي أثرت على غزو العراق مذهب بوش السياسى‪ ،‬حيث أشار إلى مجموعة من المبادئ السياسة الخارجية‬ ‫وذكر أن الواليات المتحدة لها الحق في تأمين نفسها ضد الدول التي تدعم اإلرهابيين وأنشطتهم فضال عن حماية نفسها من‬ ‫الجماعات اإلرهابية‪ .‬عقيدة بوش شملت كذلك سياسة الحرب الوقائية التي ذكرت أن الواليات المتحدة لديها سلطة للتخلص‬

‫‪3iraqnaa. http://www.iraqnaa.com/aniraq/new.htm (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪4"american invasion of Iraq memories of before the invasion" arabic center for political and strategic studies.‬‬ ‫‪http://acpss.net/site/index.php?go=news&more=98 (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫من النظم األجنبية التي تشكل خطرا على البالد‪.‬‬

‫[‪]٥‬‬

‫أهم أسباب الغزو ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .١‬استمرار حكومة الرئيس العراقي السابق صدام حسين في عدم تطبيق قرارات األمم المتحدة المتعلقة بالسماح‬ ‫للجان تفتيش األسلحة بمزاولة أعمالها في العراق‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬إستمرار حكومة الرئيس العراقي السابق صدام حسين بتصنيع وامتالك "أسلحة دمار شامل" وعدم تعاون القيادة‬ ‫العراقية في تطبيق ‪ ١9‬قرارًا لألمم المتحدة بشأن إعطاء بيانات كاملة عن ترسانتها من "اسلحة الدمار الشامل"‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .٣‬امتالك حكومة الرئيس السابق صدام حسين لعالقات مع تنظيم القاعدة ومنظمات "إرهابية" أخرى تشكل خطراً‬ ‫على أمن وإستقرار العالم‪.‬‬ ‫[‪]6‬‬ ‫‪ .٤‬نشر الديمقراطية في العراق‪ ،‬والتخلص من النظام العراقي الذي كانت اإلدارة األمريكية تصفه "بالديكتاتوري"‪.‬‬ ‫أسلحة الدمار الشامل‬ ‫اإلشتباه فى إمتالك العراق ألسلحة دمار شامل كان يمثل تهديداً للواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬فإمتالك دولة كالعراق ألسلحة قوية أثار‬ ‫القلق من امكانية استخدام تلك األسلحة ضد الواليات المتحدة أو حلفائها ولذلك كان من الضروري غزو العراق وتدمير أي‬ ‫دليل على تصنيع أسلحة الدمار الشامل واعتقدت الواليات المتحدة أن الدول الكبرى سوف تساندها لحماية مصالحها‪.‬‬ ‫األسلحة الكيميائية‪ :‬بدأ برنامج العراق لألسلحة الكيميائية عام ‪١9٧1‬م‪ ،‬وبدأ إنتاج األسلحة الفعلية في ‪١981‬م‪ ،‬بحلول‬ ‫عام ‪١98٣‬م‪ ،‬خالل الحرب بين إيران والعراق‪ ،‬استخدمت العراق المواد الكيميائية بما في ذلك غاز الخردل والتابون ضد‬ ‫اإليرانيين‪.‬‬ ‫األسلحة النووية ‪ :‬بدأ البرنامج النووى للعراق عام ‪١9٧1‬م ‪ ،‬وأكد العلماء فى المجالس اإلستراتيجية أن صدام حسين كان‬ ‫[‪]٧‬‬ ‫يحاول العمل على تخصيب اليورانيوم باإلضافة إلى وجود المال الكافى لشراء المواد الالزمة لتجميع سالح نووى‪.‬‬ ‫األسلحة البيولوجية‪ :‬بدأ برنامج العراق لتصنيع األسلحة البيولوجية اعتبارا من منتصف الثمانينات‪ ،‬وأحيط بسرية كاملة‪،‬‬ ‫وتمت إقامة منشآته ومعامله ومراكز أبحاثه فى ‪ ١8‬موقعاً منتشرة على أرض العراق بالكامل‪ ،‬إلى جانب تعامل هذه‬ ‫المنشآت مع ‪ ٧9‬منشأة مدنية أخرى فى المجاالت المختلفة‪ ،‬ولم تتوصل لجان التفتيش حتى عام ‪١998‬م‪ ،‬إال إلى سبعة‬ ‫مواقع منها فقط‪ ،‬كما كشف الفريق حسين كامل عام ‪١99٥‬م‪ ،‬عن المدى الذى وصل إليه برنامج األسلحة البيولوجية فى‬ ‫العراق‪ ،‬وحدد قدرة العراق فى صناعة مواد ـ االنثراكس‪ ،‬البوتولينيم‪ ،‬اإلفالتوكسين‪ ،‬وتتهم لجنة التفتيش العراق بأنه أخفى‬ ‫ما بين ‪ ١٧‬و‪ ٣٥‬طناً من مواد وسيطة‪ ،‬ولم يبرر سبباً إلخفائها‪ ،‬وأن إنتاج العراق من األسلحة البيولوجية‪ ،‬هو أضعاف ما‬ ‫[‪]8‬‬ ‫قدمه إلى اللجنة‪.‬‬ ‫األحداث المؤدية للغزو‪:‬‬ ‫قامت الواليات المتحدة بالتهديد بغزو العراق وتصاعدت األحداث بصورة متسارعة مع تركيز الواليات المتحدة األمريكية‬ ‫وتصميمها على ضرب العراق منذ صدور قرار مجلس األمن رقم (‪ )١٤٤١‬في ‪ 8‬نوفمبر ‪ 2112‬باإلجماع من الـ‪ ١٥‬دولة‬ ‫‪5"The 2003 Iraq war" custom writings . http://customwritingtips.com/component/k2/item/7831-the-2003-iraq-war.html‬‬ ‫‪(accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪6http://defense-arab.com/vb/showthread.php?t=20160 (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪7http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/iraq/un_wmd.html‬‬ ‫‪8http://digital.ahram.org.eg/articles.aspx?Serial=220382&eid=294‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫األعضاء في مجلس األمن‪ ،‬الذي فرض تفتيش العراق بحثًا عن أسلحة الدمار الشامل بما فيها األسلحة النووية [‪ ، ]9‬والذي‬ ‫اعتبرته الواليات المتحدة األمريكية تفويضا لها لضرب العراق في الوقت الذي عارضت دول كبرى عديدة تفسيرها هذا‬ ‫القرار‪.‬‬ ‫قدم الع راق تقريره المطلوب إلى مجلس األمن عن إنتشار ومواقع أسلحة التدمير الشامل لديه فيما اعتبرته الواليات المتحدة‬ ‫األمريكية مجرد محاولة لخداع المجتمع الدولى ‪.‬‬ ‫في يناير ‪211٣‬م‪ ،‬بدأت الواليات المتحدة األمريكية في شن حمله ضد العراق بدعوى انتهاكه للقرار (‪ )١٤٤١‬حيث دعت‬ ‫إلى عقد اجتماع طارئ في مجلس األمن لسماع خطاب وزير الخارجية األمريكي فى ذلك الوقت كولن باول في الخامس‬ ‫من فبراير ‪211٣‬م والذي اتهم فيه العراق بخداع لجان التفتيش وأكد امتالك العراق ألسلحة التدمير الشامل وقد حاولت‬ ‫الواليات المتحدة األمريكية استصدار قرار جديد يخولها حق ضرب العراق لعدم كشف العراق عن إمتالكه أسلحة التدمير‬ ‫الشامل تارة‪ ،‬وتارة أخرى بعالقات العراق بتنظيم القاعدة وإ يوائه عناصر منها‪ ،‬وتارة ثالثة بأن العراق حكم سلطوي يجب‬ ‫تغييره وإيجاد حكومة ديمقراطية في العراق‪.‬‬ ‫في فجر الثالثاء ‪ ١8‬مارس ‪ 211٣‬ألقى الرئيس األمريكي خطابا هاما وجه فيه إنذاراً نهائيا للرئيس العراقي بمغادرة‬ ‫العراق خالل ‪ ٤8‬ساعة وإال واجه الحرب ضد بالده فيما أعلنت الواليات المتحدة األمريكية أن أكثر من ‪ ٤٥‬دولة تؤيد‬ ‫الحملة األمريكية علي العراق فيما عارضته دول عديدة منها روسيا وفرنسا وألمانيا مما كان دافعا لحدوث إنشقاق داخل‬ ‫اإلتحاد األوربي في أول حادثة من نوعها في تاريخه ما بين مؤيد ومعارض ومع حشد حوالي ‪ ٣11‬ألف مقاتل منهم‬ ‫حوالي ‪ 2٥1‬ألف مقاتل أمريكي و‪ ٤٣‬ألف مقاتل من المملكة المتحدة وقوات من دول أخرى بدأ الغزو األمريكي –‬ ‫البريطاني للعراق في العشرين من مارس ‪.211٣‬‬ ‫الغزو االمريكى للعراق‪:‬‬ ‫العمليات العسكرية ‪:‬‬ ‫بدأت العمليات العسكرية فجر يوم العشرين من مارس‪ ،‬بتوجيه ‪ ٤1‬صاروخ "كروز" فيما سمي وقتها بـ "ضربة‬ ‫الفرصة" ‪ ،‬إلى مواقع رئاسية كانت القوات األمريكية تتوقع وجود الرئيس العراقي الراحل صدام حسين بداخلها في‬ ‫العاصمة بغداد‪ .‬ليعلن الرئيس األمريكي مباشرة في خطاب مقتضب إلى الشعب األمريكي‪ ،‬بدء العمليات العسكرية‬ ‫”لتحرير العراق ونزع أسلحة الدمار الشامل التي يمتلكها"‪ ،‬قائال‪" :‬إن ما يقوم به الجنود األمريكيون في الوقت الحالي هو‬ ‫[‪]١1‬‬ ‫لمنع حدوث كوارث في المدن األمريكية في المستقبل"‪.‬‬ ‫وفي اليوم األول للحرب‪ ،‬قال مسئولون أمريكيون إن الطائرات األمريكية قصفت ما ال يقل عن سبعة مواقع في الجنوب‬ ‫والغرب من العراق‪ ،‬بما في ذلك ‪ ١1‬أنظمة مدفعية على مرمى القوات األمريكية والبريطانية وبطارية صواريخ جوـ جو‪.‬‬ ‫وقد ردت الدفاعات العراقية في بغداد بإطالق نيران كثيفة من المدفعية المضادة للطائرات بينما دوت صفارات اإلنذار في‬ ‫أجواء العاصمة لتحذر المواطنين من الغارات‪ ،‬أعقبها دوي إنفجارات سمعت في ضواحي العاصمة‪ .‬كما عبرت قوات‬ ‫المارينز البريطانية الحدود العراقية من الكويت‪ ،‬وقامت بتنفيذ عمليات في شبه جزيرة الفاو‪.‬‬ ‫وقد فشلت المراهنات األمريكية البريطانية على إحداث ثورة شعبية ضد الحكومة العراقية‪ ،‬أثناء العمليات العسكرية‪ ،‬رغم‬ ‫ما كانت تلقيه الطائرات الحربية من منشورات تشجع العراقيين على ذلك‪ ،‬خصوصا في مدن الجنوب‪ .‬وخاضت القوات‬ ‫‪9http://acpss.net/site/index.php?go=news&more=98‬‬ ‫‪11http://articles.abolkhaseb.net/ar_articles_2008/0308/tamer_190308.htm‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫البريطانية معركة مع الجيش العراقي في البصرة تعتبر األصعب للجيش البريطاني منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية‪ ،‬إلى أن‬ ‫تمكن البريطانيون من دخول البصرة فى السابع والعشرون من مارس ‪211٣‬م‪.‬‬ ‫و بعد مضي ثالثة أسابيع من الحملة العسكرية التي شنها "تحالف الراغبين" بقيادة الواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬تمكنت القوات‬ ‫المهاجمة جوا وبراً‪ ،‬من إحتالل العراق بالكامل‪ ،‬ودخول بغداد في التاسع من إبريل ‪211٣‬م‪ ،‬بعد أن أسقطت دبابة أمريكية‬ ‫تمثال الرئيس العراقي الراحل‪ ،‬صدام حسين‪ ،‬في ساحة الفردوس‪ .‬ليعلن الرئيس األمريكي جورج بوش في األول من‬ ‫مايو أن "المرحلة القتالية في العراق قد انتهت وحان الوقت اآلن كي تركِز القوات األميركية على أمن العراق وإعادة‬ ‫بنائه"‪.‬‬ ‫الخسائر المالية والبشرية‬

‫حفلت السنوات التسع من االحتالل األميركي للعراق بالكثير من األحداث الدامية التي كان لها كلفتها الباهظة‪ ،‬مئات اآلالف‬ ‫[‪]١١‬‬ ‫سقطوا بين قتلى وجرحى ومئات المليارات صرفت على الجحافل األميركية‪.‬‬ ‫حيث خصصت وزارة الحرب األميركية (البنتاغون) حوالى ‪ ٧٧1‬مليار دوالر للعمليات العسكرية في العراق منذ بدء‬ ‫الغزو‪ .‬هذه المبالغ التي أُخذت من جهاز العمليات الخارجية‪ ،‬تضاف الى ميزانية البنتاغون وقد استخدم جزء غير محدد‬ ‫منها لتمويل الحرب في العراق[‪.]١2‬‬ ‫ومنذ نهاية ‪21١1‬م‪ ،‬أنفقت الواليات المتحدة حوالى ‪ ٣2‬مليار دوالر على تكاليف العناية الطبية للجرحى ودفع معاشات‬ ‫للمصابين بإعاقة يستفيد منها المحاربون القدامى مدى الحياة‪.‬‬ ‫عدد المصابين منذ بداية العمل العسكري ضد العراق جاوز ( ‪ ) ٤٥‬الف مصاب ( حسب االرقام الرسمية الصادرة عن‬ ‫جمعية المحاربين االمريكيين ) وانفاق ( ‪ ) 2٥1‬مليار دوالر وحشد (‪ )١11‬الف جندي وضابط امريكي و ( ‪ ) ٣11‬الف‬ ‫جندي مارينز وحرس وشرطة عراقية وبلغت حصيلة قتلى الجيش عام ‪21١١‬م‪ 898 ،‬جندياً‪.‬‬

‫‪11http://www.almanar.com.lb/adetails.php?fromval=1&cid=156&frid=156&eid=151666‬‬ ‫‪12http://almustashar-iq.net/index.php.html‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫اإلنسحاب وإحصائيات هامة‪:‬‬

‫عندما تولى باراك أوباما الرئاسة فى ‪2119‬م‪ ،‬أعلن عن خطة لإلنسحاب من العراق خالل ‪ ١8‬شهرًا على األكثر‪ ،‬على أن‬ ‫يرحل آخر جندى أمريكى بحلول ديسمبر ‪21١١‬م‪ .‬فى منتصف عام ‪ 21١1‬تبقى ‪ ٥1،111‬جندى أمريكى فى العراق‬ ‫وأُعلن عن تحويل المهام من القتالية إلى اإلستشارية والتدريب فقط‪ .‬فى ‪ ١8‬من ديسمبر ‪ 21١١‬رحل أخر جندى أمريكى‬ ‫[‪]١٣‬‬ ‫من العراق وأُنزل العلم األمريكى من المنطقة الخضراء ألول مرة منذ ما يقرب من ‪ 9‬أعوام‪.‬‬ ‫ضحايا الصراع في العراق منذ عام ‪211٣‬م (ابتداء من غزو العراق عام ‪ ،211٣‬وصوالً الى ‪ ،21١١‬وكذلك أنشطة‬ ‫الجماعات المسلحة المختلفة العاملة في البالد) متعددون األشكال و تختلف التقديرات على حسب المصدر‪.‬‬ ‫يلخص الجدول أدناه تقديرات مختلفة من أرقام الضحايا العراقيين‪.‬‬ ‫الفترة الزمنية‬ ‫مارس ‪211٣‬وحتى‬ ‫‪2111‬‬ ‫مارس ‪ 211٣‬وحتى‬ ‫‪2111‬‬ ‫مارس ‪ 211٣‬حتى‬ ‫أغسطس ‪211٧‬‬ ‫مارس ‪ 211٣‬إلى‬ ‫‪2119‬‬ ‫مارس اذار ‪211٣‬‬ ‫‪21١2‬‬

‫خسائر‬ ‫يونيو ‪ ١٥١،111‬حالة وفاة عنيفة‬

‫مصدر‬ ‫مسح صحة األسرة في العراق‬

‫يونيو ‪ 11١12٧‬حالة وفاة عنيفة من النسيت " مسح عام"‬ ‫‪ 1٥٤91٥‬حالة وفاة اضافية‬ ‫شهر ‪ ١1٣٣111‬حالة وفاة نتيجة استطالع للرأي حول بحوث‬ ‫األعمال‬ ‫للصراع‬ ‫أسوشيتد برس‬ ‫أبريل ‪ ١١1111‬حالة وفاة‬ ‫لليناير القتلى المدنيين نتيجة للصراع‪ ،‬مشروع "بودى كونت" العراق‬ ‫أكثر من ‪ ١12111‬حالة وفاة‬ ‫المدنيين والمقاتلين‬

‫‪13http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2011-12-17/iraq-us-troops/52032854/1?csp=ip‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫يناير ‪ 211٤‬حتى ديسمبر ‪ ١191٣2‬حالة وفاة منها ويكيليكس‬ ‫‪ 1118١‬حالة وفاة بين العراق‬ ‫‪2119‬‬ ‫المدنيين‪.‬‬

‫سجالت حرب‬

‫وقتل ما مجموعه ‪ ٤٤81‬من الجنود األمريكيين في العراق بين عامي ‪ 211٣‬و ‪ .21١2‬ومع ذلك‪ ،‬فالمعلومات عن كل‬ ‫من الضحايا العسكريين والمدنيين على حد سواء أقل دقة وأقل إتساقاً‪ .‬التقديرات عن الضحايا من الصحفيين العاملين فى‬ ‫العراق متضاربة كذلك‪.‬‬ ‫كلمة "الضحايا"بمعناها األكثر عمومية يشمل الجرحى فضال عن القتلى‪ .‬حسابات عدد من أُصيب بجروح تختلف على‬ ‫نطاق واسع‪ ،‬ويرجع ذلك جزئيأ إلى أن الجهات قد تستخدم مصادر مختلفة للتوصل إلى تعريفات وأرقام مختلفة جدا‪،‬‬ ‫[‪]١٧[]١1[]١٥[]١٤‬‬ ‫وأحيانا ال يتم تحديد تعريف دقيق واضح‪.‬‬ ‫وكانت التكلفة المالية للحرب أكثر من ‪ ٤.٥‬مليار جنيه إسترلينى (‪ 9‬مليار دوالر) إلى المملكة المتحدة‪ ،‬وأكثر من ‪8٤٥‬‬ ‫مليار دوالر للحكومة األمريكية‪ .‬ويقول النقاد التكلفة اإلجمالية لالقتصاد األمريكي تشير التقديرات إلى أنها تصل إلى ‪٣‬‬ ‫تريليون دوالر‪.‬‬ ‫وأشارتقرير "للسى إن إن" أنه بقيادة الواليات المتحدة الحكومة اإلنتقالية‪ ،‬وسلطة االئتالف المؤقتة التى استمرت حتى‬ ‫عام ‪ 211٤‬في العراق‪ ،‬فإن العراق قد خسر ‪ 8.8‬مليار دوالر في صندوق التنمية‪ .‬في يونيو ‪ ،21١١‬أفيد من قبل "سي‬ ‫بي اس نيوز" أن ستة مليار دوالر في كتل تم تعبئتها بدقة من فئات ‪ ١11‬دوالر كانت تطير حرفياً بالطائرات إلى العراق‬ ‫من قبل إدارة جورج دبليو بوش‪ ،‬الذي وصل إلى بغداد فى إحدى زياراته على متن طائرات شحن عسكرية‪ .‬في المجموع‪،‬‬ ‫يقول تايمز أنه تم نقل ‪ ١2‬مليار دوالر نقدا الى العراق في ‪ 2١‬رحلة منفصلة من مايو ‪ ،211٤‬وكلها قد اختفت‪ .‬المفتش‬ ‫العام ذكر أن "عدم الكفاءة وسوء اإلدارة الشديد" من قبل سلطة االئتالف المؤقتة من شأنه أن ال يترك أي ضمان أن هذه‬ ‫األموال تم إستخدامها بشكل صحيح‪ ،‬وقال ستيوارت بوين االبن‪ ،‬مدير مكتب المفتش العام الخاص إلعادة إعمار العراق‪.‬‬ ‫" إن اتفاقية السالم الشامل ال تضع أو تنفذ‪ ،‬والضوابط المالية والتعاقدية ال تضمنان أن األموال استخدمت بطريقة شفافة"‪.‬‬ ‫وقال بوين للتايمز أن هذه األموال التى تعتبر في عداد المفقودين قد تمثل "أكبر سرقة أموال في التاريخ الوطني‬ ‫[‪]١9[]١8‬‬ ‫األمريكى‪.‬‬

‫‪14"Iraqi deaths from violence 2003–2011" Iraq Body Count. http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/numbers/2011 (accessed‬‬ ‫‪23 Feb. 2013).‬‬ ‫‪15"Wikileaks Iraq: data journalism maps every death" The Guardian.‬‬ ‫(‪http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/oct/23/wikileaks-iraq-data-journalism (accessed 23 Feb. 2013‬‬ ‫(‪16"The Iraq War Logs" The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/iraq-war-logs (accessed 23 Feb. 2013‬‬ ‫‪17"The Toll of War in Iraq: U.S. Casualties and Civilian Deaths" NPR.‬‬ ‫‪http://www.npr.org/news/specials/tollofwar/tollofwarmain.html (accessed 23 Feb. 2013).‬‬ ‫‪18Trotta, D. "Iraq war hits U.S. economy: Nobel winner" Rueters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/03/02/us-usa-economy‬‬‫‪iraq-idUSN2921527420080302?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&sp=true (accessed 23 Feb. 2013).‬‬ ‫‪19Reals, T. "Report: $6B missing in Iraq may have been stolen" CBS News. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162‬‬‫‪20070981-503543.html (accessed 23 Feb. 2013).‬‬

‫‪43‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫‪ ‬عالقات العراق الخارجية ومصالح الواليات المتحدة‬ ‫تاريخ عالقات "عراق" ما قبل الغزو مع ك ٍل من‬ ‫إيران‪:‬‬ ‫إزدادت العالقات مع إيران سوءاً بعد الثورة التي أطاحت بالشاه في عام ‪١9٧9‬م‪ .‬إعترف العراق بحكومة الثورة‬ ‫اإلسالمية الشيعية في إيران ولكن القادة اإليرانيون لم يكن حكم البعث يعنيهم‪ ،‬والذي نظروه بعين االستصغار على أنه‬ ‫علماني‪ ،‬وفقاً لبعض المحللين‪ .‬أعلن اية اهلل روح اهلل الخميني القائد الروحي للثورة اإليرانية سياسة "تصدير الثورة"‪،‬‬ ‫وكان العراق في أول القائمة التي تضم الدول المنوي االطاحة بأنظمتها وإبدالها بنظام إسالمي شبيه بالنظام الموجود في‬ ‫إيران‪ .‬إضافة إلى أن إيران ال تزال تحتل ثالثة مساحات صغيرة من االرض على إمتداد الحدود العراقية اإليرانية والتي‬ ‫كان ينبغي ان تعود الى العراق حسب معاهدة ‪١9٧٥‬م‪.‬‬ ‫كانت المناوشات الحدودية تحدث باستمرار في ‪ ١9٧9‬و ‪ .١981‬وفي ‪ ١٧‬سبتمبر ‪١981‬م‪ ،‬أعلن صدام بأنه ال يلتزم‬ ‫بمعاهدة ‪١9٧٥‬م‪ ،‬ألن إيران قد خرقتها‪ .‬وفي ‪22 – 2١‬سبتمبر‪ ،١981‬قامت القطع العراقية بغزو ايران؛ وقام العراق‬ ‫بنفس الوقت بقصف القواعد الجوية اإليرانية وأهداف إستراتيجية أخرى‪ .‬وفي ‪28‬سبتمبر‪ ،‬دعا مجلس األمن لوقف إطالق‬ ‫ال أن العراق‬ ‫النار وطلب من كل من العراق وإيران أن " يلجأوا إلى الوسائل السلمية لحل خالفاتهما"‪ .‬فرد صدام حسين قائ ً‬ ‫يقبل بوقف إطالق النار في حالة إلتزام إيران بذلك أيضا‪ .‬وكان رد إيران سلبياً‪ .‬وتمت محاوالت أخرى في ‪١981‬‬ ‫و‪١98١‬م‪ ،‬ولكنها رُفِضت من قبل إيران‪ .‬وهكذا إستمرت الحرب وفي السنوات التي تلت إمتدت الى منطقة الخليج وأدت‬ ‫إلى التدخل االجنبي‪ .‬وسميت على أثر ذلك بحرب الخليج‪.‬‬ ‫أوقف التقدم العراقي داخل إيران في نوفمبر‪١981‬م‪ .‬وأعقب ذلك حالة من التوتر والشد التي استمرت حتى‬ ‫سبتمبر‪١98١‬م‪ ،‬عندما بدأت إيران بسلسلة من العمليات الهجومية الناجحة‪ .‬وفي مايو‪١982‬م‪ ،‬كان العراقيون قد طُردوا‬ ‫عن معظم األراضي التي احتلوها‪ .‬وبدأت القوات اإليرانية تتغلغل الى محافظة البصرة‪ .‬وخالل ‪١981 – ١98٣‬م‪ ،‬إحتلوا‬ ‫جزيرة مجنون وهددوا مدينة البصرة‪ ،‬وإحتلوا شبه جزيرة الفاو‪ .‬أما في المحافظات الشمالية الشرقية فقد هددت القوات‬ ‫اإليرانية االمنطقة الممتدة من كركوك وحتى الحدود التركية بتغلغلها الى مدينة حاج عمران وحلبجة بالتعاون مع األكراد‬ ‫العراقيين‪ ،‬ولقد واجهوا مقاومة شديدة في الشمال‪ .‬ألحقت القوات العراقية خسائر كبيرة باإليرانيين واألكراد‪ .‬وأُوقف‬ ‫الهجوم االيراني على البصرة وتكبد الطرفان خسائر كبيرة‪ .‬قابل العراق ماسمي بحرب الناقالت بقصف منصات تحميل‬ ‫الوقود في الخليج‪ ،‬وخاصة في جزيرة خرج‪ .‬وبقي إحتالل إيران لجزيرة مجنون وشبه جزيرة الفاو وتهديدها للبصرة‬ ‫يشكل هاجسا كبيرا للعراق‪.‬‬ ‫في عام ‪١98٧‬م‪ ،‬أصبحت كفة المعادلة في صالح العراق‪ .‬حصل العراق على أسلحة إضافية من فرنسا واإلتحاد السوفيتي‬ ‫مما حسن موقفه العسكري بشكل ملحو ‪ ،‬وطور العالقات مع االتحاد السوفيتي واألقطار الغربية وبالذات الواليات المتحدة‬ ‫األمريكية؛ وأُعيدت العالقات مع الواليات المتحدة األمريكية في ‪١98٤‬م‪ .‬في عام ‪١98٧‬م‪ ،‬وافقت أميركا على رفع العلم‬ ‫األمريكي على ‪ ١١‬ناقلة كويتية وحمايتها في المياه الدولية من خالل مضيق هرمز‪ .‬وحمت كل من بريطانيا وفرنسا‬ ‫ناقالت تحمل أعالمهما‪ .‬وقد ساندت الواليات المتحدة العراق سياسيا في األمم المتحدة وعسكريا بتأمين معلومات عن‬ ‫التحركات اإليرانية في منطقة الخليج بالرغم من حادثة المدمرة ستارك التي هوجمت دونما قصد من قبل القاصفات‬ ‫العراقية في ‪ ١٧‬مايو ‪١98٧‬م‪ .‬وفي أكتوبر‪١98٧‬وأبريل ‪١988‬م‪ ،‬هاجمت القوات األمريكية السفن اإليرانية ومنصات‬ ‫تحميل النفط‪.‬‬ ‫في ‪ 21‬يوليو ‪١98٧‬م‪ ،‬أقر مجلس األمن باإلجماع القرار ‪ ٥98‬والذي يحث كالً من العراق وإيران لقبول وقف إطالق‬ ‫النار‪ ،‬وسحب قواتهما إلى الحدود الدولية المعترف بها وتسوية خالفاتهما الحدودية بالتفاوض تحت رعاية األمم المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫‪44‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫وافق العراق على اإللتزام بشروط القرار إذا ما التزمت إيران به‪ .‬ولم تقبل إيران أو ترفض القرار بل طلبت إدخال‬ ‫تعديالت عليه بإدانة العراق على أنه الطرف المعتدي في الحرب والدعوة إلى مغادرة األساطيل األجنبية الخليج‪.‬‬ ‫إستمرت العمليات العسكرية في الخليج وإستعاد العراق شبه جزيرة الفاو ومنطقة الشالمجة ومجنون‪ .‬أصبح واضحاً أن‬ ‫موقف إيران العسكري في الخليج قد أصبح متعذرا‪ .‬وخوفا من ثورة داخلية أشار القادة اإليرانيون على الخميني بضرورة‬ ‫قبول وقف إطالق النار من أجل المحافظة على النظام من اإلنهيار‪ .‬وأعلنت إيران موافقتها الرسمية على القرار ‪ ٥98‬في‬ ‫‪21‬أغسطس‪١988‬م‪.‬‬ ‫عندما إلتقى وزيرا خارجية العراق وإيران في جنيف للمرة األولى في أغسطس‪١988‬م‪ ،‬وبعد ذلك في ‪١989‬م‪ ،‬لم يحدث‬ ‫أي تقدم في كيفية تطبيق القرار ‪ .٥98‬طلب العراق تبادل كامل لألسرى كخطوة أولى‪ ،‬في الوقت الذي أصرت إيران على‬ ‫أن إنسحاب القوات العراقية من إيران يجب أن يسبق تبادل األسرى‪ .‬لم يتفق العراق وإيران على إتخاذ أى خطوات تفعيلية‬ ‫حتى‪١991‬م‪ ،‬حين إتفق الطرفان أخيراً على تسوية خالفاتهما على أساس معاهدة ‪١9٧٥‬م‪ ،‬وتنفيذ بنود قرار األمم المتحدة‬ ‫[‪]21‬‬ ‫‪.٥98‬‬ ‫عالقات "عراق" ما بعد االنسحاب بـ‪:‬‬ ‫إيران‪:‬‬

‫كان سقوط نظام صدام هو بداية جديدة للعالقات بين إيران والعراق‪ .‬ففي سبتمبر من العام التالي للغزو إستأنفت إيران‬ ‫عالقتها الدبلوماسية مع العراق وشهدت العالقات تقدماً ملحوظاً بداية من فترة حكومة إبراهيم الجعفري حيث أصدرت تلك‬ ‫الحكومة أمراً بالعفو عن المحتجزين والمعتقلين اإليرانيين في السجون العراقية ترحيباً بزيارة وزير الخارجية كمال‬ ‫خرزاي لبغداد‪ .‬وفي تطور آخر‪ ،‬زار وفدٌ عسكري عراقي رفيع المستوى بقيادة سعدون الدليمي طهران‪ ،‬حيث عبر عن‬ ‫أسفه تجاه جرائم صدام بحق إيران‪ .‬وإنتهت الزيارة بتوقيع اتفاق للتعاون العسكري في مجالي الدفاع والمناورات‬ ‫[‪]2١‬‬ ‫المشتركة‪.‬‬ ‫في ظل حكومة إياد عالوي شهدت العالقات بعض التوتر بسبب إتهامات األخير لطهران بالتدخل في الشأن العراقي‬ ‫الداخلي‪ .‬ولكن سرعان ما عادت العالقات إلى مسارها بعد أن زار الجعفري إيران وصرح بأن حكومته لن تسمح‬ ‫للمعارضة اإليرانية (منظمة مجاهدي خلق) بأن تتخذ من األراضي العراقية منطلقاً لممارسة عملياتها ضد إيران‪ .‬أسفرت‬ ‫تلك الزيارة عن التوقيع على إتفاقية تعاون أمني مشترك بموجبه شكل البلدان لجاناً مشتركة للتنسيق األمني وضبط الحدود‬ ‫والمساعدة في إعادة تأهيل الجيش العراقي‪.‬‬ ‫‪21iraqnaa. http://www.iraqnaa.com/aniraq/new.htm (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

‫‪.21Muhanad Mohammed (December 19, 2012). "Iran, Iraq seek diplomatic end to border dispute". Reuters‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫إستمرت العالقات في التحسن بعد تولي نوري المالكي رئاسة الوزراء‪ .‬حيث بادر األخير إلى زيارة إيران‪ ،‬وإستقبله‬ ‫الرئيس اإليراني الجديد أحمدي نجاد الذي أعلن أثناء هذه الزياٍرة عن ربط أمن بالده بأمن العراق‪ ،‬قائالً إن بالده مستعدة‬ ‫إلحالل األمن كامال في العراق‪ ،‬ألن أمن العراق هو من أمن إيران‪ .‬وقد رد المالكي على ذلك بقوله إنه ال توجد حواجز‬ ‫تعترض طريق التعاون بين البلدين‪ .‬وهو التعاون الذي ال يزال ينمو باضطراد يوماً بعد يوم رغم الضغوط واإلتهامات‬ ‫[‪]22‬‬ ‫األميركية بإستغالل هذا التعاون لتحقيق مكاسب إقليمية إيرانية‪.‬‬ ‫تركيا‪:‬‬

‫شهدت العالقات التركية العراقية تحوالً كبيراً بعد غزو العراق‪ .‬ففي هذا الوقت كانت وحدة العراق بنفس أهمية مشكلة‬ ‫حزب العمال الكردستاني للعالقات التركية العراقية‪ .‬بعد ‪2118‬م‪ ،‬لجأت تركيا الى أسلوب جديد في العالقات أال وهو‬ ‫التواصل مع كل الطوائف في العراق‪ .‬وفي إشارة لهذا التحسن زار رئيس الوزراء التركي رجب طيب أردوغان العراق‬ ‫حيث أصبح بدوره أول قائد تركي يزور العراق منذ ما يقارب العشرون عاماً[‪ .]2٣‬أكد أردوغان في خطاب في ‪ ٣‬ابريل‬ ‫‪2119‬م‪ ،‬على أهمية وحدة العراق حيث قال " نحن ندافع عن بناء عراق مبني على الهوية العراقية فإذا تم بناء دولة كردية‬ ‫ستبدأ الطوائف األخرى ببناء دولة شيعية ودولة سنية مما سيؤدي إلى تقسيم العراق لثالث دول الذي بدوره سيؤدي لحرب‬ ‫أهلية "[‪. ]2٤‬في األول من مايو إستضافت أنقرة زعيم جيش المهدي مقتدى الصدر‪ .‬والذي في اول ظهور له لمدة عامين‬ ‫قابل الرئيس التركي عبداهلل غول و رئيس الوزراء رجب طيب اردوغان إلجراء بعض المحادثات عن العملية السياسية‬ ‫[‪]2٥‬‬ ‫وطالب تركيا بلعب دور اكبر في إرساء اإلستقرار في الشرق األوسط‪.‬‬ ‫من ناحية أخرى أدان نور المالكي األعمال اإلرهابية التي يقوم بها حزب العمال الكردستاني حيث قال أثناء مراسم وضع‬ ‫حجر األساس لمستشفى تركية البناء في كربالء "يوجد تعاون قوي بيننا وبين تركيا لوضع نهاية لتلك المنظمة‬

‫‪ 22‬مرحلة تحسن العالقات بعد سقوط نظام صدام " ‪" http://www.egynews.net/wps/portal/profiles?params=6698#‬‬ ‫‪23Jordan's Abdullah first Arab leader to visit Iraq - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)".Abc.net.au. 2008-08-12‬‬ ‫‪24PM Erdoğan says Turkey defends formation of Iraqi state on basis of Iraq nationality". Today's Zaman‬‬ ‫‪25Yanatma, Servet and Süleyman Kurt (2009-05-02). "Iraq's Sadr meets Erdoğan". Today's Zaman‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫اإلرهابية"[‪.]21‬‬ ‫وعلى صعيدٌ أخر‪ ،‬أكد رئيس الوزراء الكردستاني نجيرفان بارازاني " لقد هدد الجيش التركي بالتوغل ولكن تم بناء سبل‬ ‫حوار وتم التغلب على تلك المشكلة " وقال ايضاً " لقد أوليت دائماً اهتماماً كبيراً بالعالقات مع تركيا ألنها ليست مجرد‬ ‫[‪]2٧‬‬ ‫دولة مجاورة ولكنها ذات اهمية كبيرة لنا "‪.‬‬ ‫في ‪ ١9‬أكتوبر ‪21١١‬م‪ ،‬قتل ‪ 2٤‬جندي وأصيب ‪ ١8‬آخرون خالل إعتداء قام به حزب العمال الكردستاني على جنوب‬ ‫شرق تركيا حيث تم اطالق صواريخ على قوات أمن وقواعد عسكرية في مدينة جوكورجا‪ .‬وردت تركيا بهجمات جوية‬ ‫إستهدفت مواقع كردية في شمال العراق مما أدى إلى مقتل العديد من المتمردين‪ .‬جدد البرلمان التركي قانون يتيح للقوات‬ ‫[‪]28‬‬ ‫التركية مطاردة المتمردين عبر الحدود العراقية‪.‬‬ ‫دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي‬ ‫يصف المحللون دول الخليج بأنها قد تحولت منذ عام ‪211٣‬م بسياستها إلى نمط جديد وهو إستراتيجية الترقب واإلنتظار‬ ‫وهذه اإلستراتيجية تجعل المواقف الشعبية في العراق تنظر إلى الموقف الخليجي على أنه موقف يمتاز باإلشكالية الطائفية‬ ‫التي تجعل من الموقف الخليجي تجاه الشعب العراقي هزيالَ أحياناً وحائالَ دون تطلعات وأماني الشعب العراقي في حياة‬ ‫[‪]29‬‬ ‫كريمة‪.‬‬ ‫يعتقد الكثير من المحللين والخبراء‪ ،‬أن إيران ستكون المستفيد األول من اإلنسحاب األميركي‪ ،‬إذا نجح حلفاؤها‬ ‫المعارضون لصدام حسين في قيادة العراق‪ ،‬تنفيذياً وتشريعياً‪ ،‬ولذلك ستتعزز عالقاتها مع القوى السياسية التي تقود‬ ‫العراق اآلن‪ ،‬ويمكن أن تصل هذه العالقة إلى مرحلة التحالف بين البلدين‪ ،‬بينما خسرت الدول العربية‪ ،‬خصوصاً دول‬ ‫مجلس التعاون الخليجي في العراق‪ .‬ما يعزز القول إن عالقات دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي مع العراق بعد اإلنسحاب‬ ‫[‪]٣1‬‬ ‫ستشهد فتوراً‪.‬‬ ‫مؤخراً عينت السعودية سفيراً غير مقيم لها في العراق‪ .‬والتي تعتبر خطوة ثانية تبعت خطوة أولى قام بها العراق في‬ ‫الملف السوري‪ .‬هذه المقايضة تعني أن عودة العالقات بين العراق ودول مجلس التعاون تتوقف على المسافة الذي يستطيع‬ ‫العراق أن يرسمها مع المحور اإليراني ومقياس مصداقية القيادة العراقية في اإللتزام باإلجماع العربي في ما يتصل‬ ‫بقضايا المنطقة‪.‬‬ ‫تقوم الدول العربية المؤثرة بمراقبة العراق منذ مطلع العام الحالي للتحقق من األسس التي سيبني عليها سياسته الخارجية‪.‬‬ ‫صحيح أن البداية لم تكن جيدة حين عارض العراق القرارات العربية في ما يتعلق بسوريا‪ ،‬لكنه عاد وصحح هذا الوضع‬ ‫[‪]٣١‬‬ ‫بطرحه مبادرة تجاه سوريا‪ ،‬وعاد يلتزم كليًا باإلجماع العربي‪.‬‬ ‫‪26Maliki convinced Iraq, Turkey will find ways to eliminate PKK". Today's Zaman. 2009-05-18‬‬ ‫‪27Barzani: Problems with Turkey overcome". Today's Zaman. 2009-05-27‬‬ ‫‪28.soldiers killed in attack in Turkey". CNN. 2011-10-19‬‬ ‫‪29http://almohsun.elaphblog.com/posts.aspx?U=6279&A=88964‬‬ ‫‪ ٣1‬العنترى‪ ,‬ع‪" .‬العراق بعد االنسحاب‪ ...‬تفاهم أم تحالف؟" ‪Al hayat Digital.‬‬ ‫‪http://mobile.alhayat.com/content/1324068361830520800/Opinion (accessed 23 Feb. 2013).‬‬ ‫‪ http://www.albawwaba.net/opinions/80651/ (accessed 23 Feb. 2013).‬لعراق بعد االنسحاب االميركي… رؤية مستقبلية" البوابة‪٣١.‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫تأثير العالقات الخارجيه للعراق على الواليات المتحدة‪:‬‬ ‫بعد سقوط بغداد‪ ،‬إهتمت الواليات المتحدة بمساندة القوى المعارضة لصدام حسين‪ ،‬ذات األغلبية الشيعية‪ ،‬فى العراق‬ ‫وتأهيلها للحكم‪ .‬وأكتملت هذه السياسة بإنسحاب القوات األمريكية من العراق تاركة الساحة لهذه القوى‪ .‬ولكن المفاجأة‬ ‫كانت فى أن هذه القوى تقترب فى اإلنتماء األيديولوجى إليران‪ ،‬ما ظهر فى تقارب كبير لوجهات النظر بين العراق‬ ‫وإيران فى الفترة األخيرة‪ .‬تت بنى العراق العديد من المباحثات بين إيران والقوى الغربية بشأن البرنامج النووى اإليرانى‪،‬‬ ‫[‪]٣2‬‬ ‫كما أكد العراق دعمه لإلستخدام السلمى للطاقة النووية‪ ،‬ما شكل تعارض مع األجندة األمريكية فى المنطقة‪.‬‬ ‫إستغلت إيران إنسحاب الواليات المتحدة من العراق وتعاظم سلطة حكومة نورى المالكى فى بناء بُعد إستراتيجى لها فى‬ ‫المنطقة من خالل تطوير التعاون العسكرى مع العراق وخلق قاعدة دفاع مبدئية و منطقة عازلة ضد أى هجوم أمريكى أو‬ ‫إسرائيلى محتمل‪ .‬تم توقيع إتفاقيات تعاون عسكرى بين البلدين‪ ،‬باإلضافه إلى تبادل الزيارات بين البلدين على مستوى‬ ‫[‪]٣٣‬‬ ‫المسؤلين العسكريين‪.‬‬ ‫أصبح من المتوقع أن تدعم إيران الحكومة العراقية الحالية فى مواجهة أى صراع سياسى أو أى حالة عدم رضا شعبـى‬ ‫فى العراق على غرار دعمها للنظام فى سوريا حفاظاً على بُعدها اإلستراتيجى حديث اإلنشاء‪ .‬مثل هذا الصراع متوقع‬ ‫بشدة فى ظل األزمة السياسية الحالية فى العراق وتردى الحالتين اإلقتصادية واألمنية وتصنيف العراق ضمن أكثر عشرة‬ ‫[‪]٣٤‬‬ ‫دول فاشلة فى العالم وضمن أكثر الدول التى يُتوقع فيها أزمة غذائية‪.‬‬ ‫لطالما هددت إيران بشن هجوم على المصالح األمريكية فى المنطقة فى حال قامت إسرائيل أو الواليات المتحدة بمهاجمة‬ ‫إيران‪ ،‬وفى ظل األو ضاع الحالية‪ ،‬يعتبر العراق جبهة مثالية لشن مثل هذا الهجوم على القواعد األمريكية فى الخليج أو‬ ‫[‪]٣٥‬‬ ‫تهديد إمدادات البترول المنطلقة من العراق أو الدول المجاورة‪.‬‬ ‫يعتبر موقف العراق الغامض من الثورة السورية أحد أهم التحديات المواجهة لإلدارة األمريكية‪ .‬فالعراق هو الدولة العربية‬ ‫الوحيدة التى رفضت إيقاف سوريا فى جامعة الدول العربية‪ ،‬ناهيك عن موقفه من تحجيم حركة الالجئين إليه‪ .‬باإلضافة‬ ‫إلى ذلك تستغل إيران األرض والجو العراقى فى إرسال إمدادات عسكرية وإقتصادية إلى النظام السورى‪ ،‬ما يشكل أزمة‬ ‫[‪]٣٧[]٣1‬‬ ‫لإلدارة األمريكية الهادفة إلى عزل بشار األسد عن العالم‪.‬‬ ‫‪32ERLANGER, S. "At Nuclear Talks, Iran and 6 Nations Agree to Meet Again" NY Times.‬‬ ‫&‪http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/world/europe/iran-begins-nuclear-talks-with-six-nations.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1‬‬ ‫‪(accessed 23 Feb. 2013).‬‬ ‫‪33Hussein, A. "Iranian Defense Minister arrives in Samarra " Iraqi News. http://www.iraqinews.com/baghdad-politics/iranian‬‬‫‪defense-minister-arrives-in-samarra/ (accessed 23 Feb. 2013).‬‬ ‫‪34LARA JAKES and KAY JOHNSON, "Questions of Iraq as a failed state lurk as violence surges" The Seatle Times.‬‬ ‫‪http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2018571162_iraq01.html (accessed 23 Feb. 2013).‬‬ ‫‪35Dareini, A.A. "Iran threatens attacks on US bases in event of war" Yahoo news. http://news.yahoo.com/iran-threatens‬‬‫‪attacks-us-bases-event-war-143141162.html (accessed February 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪36Gordon, M.R. "Iran Supplying Syrian Military via Iraqi Airspace" New York Times.‬‬ ‫‪http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/world/middleeast/iran-supplying-syrian-military-via-iraq-airspace.html?pagewanted=all‬‬ ‫‪(accessed February 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪37Frederick W. Kagan & Kimberly Kagan "Losing Iraq" National Review.‬‬ ‫‪https://www.nationalreview.com/nrd/articles/328692/losing-iraq (accessed 23 Feb. 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫‪ ‬العراق ما بعد اإلنسحاب‪:‬‬ ‫نظرة عامة على اإلنقسامات الداخلية العراقية والدور اإليراني‪:‬‬

‫تندرج حاالت الصراع في العراق ضمن خمسة أنماط صراع رئيسية هي أهلية طائفية وأهلية غيرية تهدف الى إسقاط‬ ‫نظام الحكم الحالي ومقاومة داخلية ضد اإلحتالل وعصابات إرهابية وأخيراً المليشيات الموالية للسلطة وأجنحة السلطة‪.‬‬ ‫األسباب الحقيقية وراء الصراع الطائفي في العراق وتطوره التكمن بالتنافر السني ‪-‬الشيعي ‪ -‬الكردي بالمفهوم الطائفي‬ ‫الضيق "وإن وجد تاريخيا" وإنما ورائه ثالثة عوامل أساسية هي السعي وراء السلطة والرغبة في تجييش صفوف الطائفة‬ ‫لدعم المشروع السياسي وإختالف الرؤى والعقيدة السياسية‪ .‬إن حالة الصراع في العراق تلقي بكم كبير من الهواجس‬ ‫والتخوفات المنطقية في البيئة الداخلية والخارجية للبالد فعلى الصعيد الداخلي هناك مخاوف من تزايد حدته وانتقاله إلى‬ ‫السيناريوهات األكثر سوءا في حال فشل المساعي الداعية الى احتوائه وحله‪ .‬وهناك مخاوف من اإلنقسام أو اإلنفصال‬ ‫الجزئي ألحد أقاليم العراق السيما اإلقليم الشمالي الذي يتمتع فيه االكراد بنفوذ واسع ضمن العملية السياسية وهو خارج‬ ‫عن إطار السيادة العراقية على األرض فعلياً‪ .‬كما أن هناك مخاوف من تزايد نفوذ األطراف اإلثنية األخرى في السلطة‬ ‫وتهميش دورها في الحياة السياسية في العراق نتيجة تضارب األجندات الوطنية والسلوك الداخلي والتبعية الخارجية ‪.‬‬ ‫على الصعيد الخارجي هناك عدة مخاوف إقليمية إيرانية وسورية من تنفيذ سيناريو العراق مجددا في بالدهم أو ضد‬ ‫أنظمتهم إضافة إلى مخاوف خليجية وأردنية من إنتقال الصراع الطائفي وتداعياته وإسقاطاته على بلدانهم ما يؤثر على‬ ‫األمن العام أو النظم السياسية فيها باإلضافة إلى المخاوف التركية من إنفصال إقليم كردستان العراقي أو تعاظم استقالليته‬ ‫وحكمه الذاتي لما يمثله من تهديد كبير لوضعها الداخلي‪ ،‬وهو ما تشاركها فيه معظم الدول العربية المتخوفة من إنفصال‬ ‫أي جزء من أ رض العراق أو تقسيم وحدته الوطنية إضافة إلى تعاظم أي دور إقليمي السيما الدور اإليراني على الساحة‬ ‫العراقية ‪.‬‬ ‫العراق يعيش حالة مركبة في التوجهات الداعية إلى حل وتسوية الصراع تتسم بقصر النظر والبعد عن واقع المسألة‬ ‫العراقية المعقدة‪ ،‬وإن خصت بعض المظاهر التي تشهدها الساحة العراقية إال إنها تغفل مظاهر أخرى مهمة‪ ،‬وجهود‬ ‫المصالحة الداخلية التي أطلقتها الحكومة العراقية أخيراً ال تشمل كل أطراف النزاع وبالتالي فإن هذه الجهود ال ترقى إلى‬ ‫أن تكون حالً شامالً‪.‬‬ ‫العراق مقبل على مرحلة مظلمة من الصراع تقترب بشكل أكبر إلى السيناريوهات األكثر سوءاً من ذي قبل إضافة إلى‬ ‫‪49‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫أن زيادة تراكماته في ظل هذه األوضاع ستجر أطرافاً داخلية أخرى لم تدخل ساحة الصراع بشكل جدي بعد‪ .‬وهذه‬ ‫األوضاع ستجر كذلك أطرافاً إقليمية ودولية السيما دول الجوار األخرى‪ ،‬للدخول بقوة في الشان العراقي الداخلي وحيثيات‬ ‫هذا الصراع لن ينتهي إال بمزيد من التعقيد لحالته‪.‬‬ ‫حالة الصراع في العراق تحتاج الى جهود تسوية شاملة وبيئة إقليمية أقل توتراً وأكثر هدوءاً وضبط نفس كبير تجاه‬ ‫محاوالت الجر إلى مزيد من التصعيد في الصراع الداخلي أو في أشكال التدخل االقليمي الخارجي في شؤون العراق ‪.‬‬ ‫إن حالة الصراع تلك بحاجة الى دور فاعل من قبل المجتمع الدولي واإلقليمي واألقطاب االخرى الفاعلة في هذا‬ ‫[ ‪]٣٤[]٣‬‬ ‫المجال‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ‬مشاكل العراق الداخلية األساسية‪:‬‬ ‫األمن وتسليحه وتدريبه‪:‬‬ ‫بدءا من عام ‪2118‬م‪ ،‬وطبقا لإلتفاقية األمنية بين العراق والواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬بدأت الواليات المتحدة إعادة تشكيل القوات‬ ‫المسلحة واألجهزة األمنية العراقية وإمدادها بالتدريب واألسلحة الالزمين لبناء العراق‪ .‬ومع اإلقتراب من إكتمال‬ ‫اإلنسحاب صرحت اإلدارة األمريكية أن القدرة األمنية العراقية قادرة على بناء عراق ديمقراطي ومستقر‪ .‬يصل عدد أفراد‬ ‫األمن العراقي الى ما يقارب ‪ ٧11،111‬فرد يتمتعون بتدريب وتسليح جيدين‪ .‬بدأت مؤخراً جهود أخرى لتعزيز القدرة‬ ‫األمنية في العراق تمثلت في زيارة رئيس هيئة األركان المشتركة في الجيش األميركي الجنرال مارتن ديمبسي‪ .‬حيث أكد‬ ‫القيادي في حزب الدعوة النائب عبد الهادي الحساني أن زيارة كبير المسئولين في الجيش األميركي تأتي إستكماالً إلتفاق‬ ‫اإلطار اإلستراتيجي المبرم بين العراق وأميركا وأوضح قائال‪" :‬واشنطن تراقب عن كثب األحداث التي تمر بها البالد‬ ‫والمنطقة وبالتالي تريد التعرف إلى موقف الحكومة مما يحدث ومساعدتها في تسليح قواتها األمنية"‪ .‬وعن إستقدام قوات‬ ‫أميركية ونشرها في بعض مناطق البالد قال ‪ " :‬ال صحة لذلك وال يمكن بأي حال من األحوال إستقدام ولو جندياً واحداً‬ ‫بعد انسحاب جميع القوات القتالية األميركية‪ .‬لكن يبقى التعاون األمني بين الجانبين مستمراً إلى حين إستقرار المشهد‬ ‫األم ني بالكامل‪ ،‬بمعنى إستمرار تجهيز البالد باألسلحة الحديثة والمتطورة وتكثيف الدورات التي تزيد المهارات القتالية‬ ‫[‪]٤1‬‬ ‫لرجال األمن العراقيين"‪.‬‬ ‫وفيما يخص قوات البشمركة صرح نائب رئيس حكومة إقليم كردستان عماد أحمد أن الحكومة تقوم حاليا بمشروع لتقنين‬ ‫أوضاع قوات البشمركة التابعة لها‪ .‬وتأتي هذه الخطوة وسط خالف مع الحكومة المركزية في بغداد بشأن دور هذه القوات‬ ‫[‪]٤١‬‬ ‫في المنظومة الدفاعية العراقية‪.‬‬ ‫األكراد‪:‬‬ ‫هم شعوب تعيش فى غرب آسيا‪ ،‬بمحاذاة جبال زاكروس وطوروس‪ ،‬ويطلق األكراد على هذه المنطقة كردستان‪ .‬تعدادهم‬ ‫يقترب من ‪ ٣1‬مليون نسمة حول العالم‪ .‬هم عرقياً ينتمون إلى العرقيات اإليرانية‪ ،‬ويعتبرون من أكبر القوميات التى‬ ‫التمتلك كياناً سياساً موحداً‪ ،‬معترف به عالمياً‪ ،‬حيث أنهم موزعين على شمال شرق العراق وشمال شرق سوريا وشمال‬ ‫غرب إيران وجنوب غرب تركيا‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى مناطق أخرى متعددة حول العالم ولكن بنسب ضئيلة‪ ،‬والطالما طالب‬ ‫‪ 38‬عزام العصفور‪-‬دراسه بعنوان (الصراع في العراق ‪ -‬مدخل لتفسير الوضع في العراق انطالقا من االدبيات السياسية للصراع الداخلي واتساقها مع واقع الحالة‬ ‫العراقية) –إدارة البحوث واإلعالم بوزارة الكويت‬ ‫‪39alnajaf news. http://www.alnajafnews.net/najafnews/news.php?action=fullnews&id=31358 (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪41qanon. http://www.qanon302.net/news/news.php?action=view&id=21132 (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪41azzaman. http://www.azzaman.com/?p=11849 (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫األكراد حول العالم بهذا الكيان السياسى‪.‬‬ ‫بالنسبة ألكراد العراق فهم ‪ ٪١٥‬من المجموع الكلى لألكراد‪ ،‬و‪ ٪١2‬من سكان العراق‪ ،‬دمجوا مع العراق بموجب إتفاقية‬ ‫سايكس بيكوعام ‪١92٣‬م‪ .‬ويتمثل تعقيد قضيتهم بسبب بدايتها مع إستقالل العراق ومرورها بنزاعات مسلحة مع الحكومة‬ ‫المركزية فى السابق‪ .‬إستخدمت قضيتهم سياسياً سابقاً من قبل خصوم العراق‪ ،‬كورقة ضغط على العراق من خالل‬ ‫التظاهر بدعم قضيتهم‪ ،‬وهذا من وجهة نظر بعض المحللين‪.‬‬ ‫الجماعات اإلرهابية والتفجيرات الدورية‪:‬‬

‫إنتشرت بشكل واسع وكبير خالل األربعة سنوات الماضية أحداث العنف اإلرهابية‪ ،‬ومازالت إلى اآلن تُمارس‪ ،‬شتى‬ ‫أنواع القتل اإلجرامي واإلرهابي الذي يحصد يومياً مئات القتلى من العراقيين األبرياء دون تمييز بين ديانة أو قومية‬ ‫أوطائفة‪ .‬ولو أخذنا التعريفات التي تناولت اإلرهاب في العالم لوجدنا أنه ليس هناك تعريف ثابت لإلرهاب ألن مايعتبر‬ ‫إرهاباً هنا يعتبر مقاومة هناك‪ ،‬بمعنى أن كل شخص ينظر إلى اإلرهاب بما يتناسب وينسجم مع طبيعة توجهاته وتطلعاته‬ ‫وبما يخدم مصالحه الضيقة الخاصة‪ ،‬فقتل مئات العراقيين يومياً من وجهة نظر بعض الدول هو مقاومة إلخراج المحتل‬ ‫من العراق وحتى لوكان نتيجة هذه المقاومة القائمة على تفخيخ العجالت وزرع العبوات الناسفة في الشوارع قتل األطفال‬ ‫والنساء‪ ،‬في حين نجد أعمال مماثلة تنفذ في دول أخرى تعتبر هذه الممارسات أعماالً إرهابية وإجرامية‪ .‬هذا التناقض في‬ ‫الرؤى يضعنا أمام صعوبة التميز بين اإلرهاب والمقاومة ويجعل من االستحالة وضع تعريف ثابت لإلرهاب الذي نشأ منذ‬ ‫قديم الزمان نتيجة الصراعات الفكرية والعقائدية بين المتشددين من الملل والطوائف واألمم‪.‬‬ ‫بعد دخول القوات األمريكية إلى العراق لإلطاحة بنظام البعث أصبح العراق أكبر ساحة لتفريغ اإلرهاب وتحولت ساحاته‬ ‫وشوارعه إلى مسرحاً للعمليات اإلرهابية التي أخفت كل معالم الحياة الجميلة بهذا البلد بسبب الفراغ السياسي واألمني‬ ‫الذي تركته القوات األمريكية والذي جعل آالف األطنان من األسلحة بيد عامة الناس خصوصاً بعد أن تُركت الحدود‬ ‫العراقية مفتوحة لكا فة الجماعات والمنظمات اإلرهابية ومن مختلف الجنسيات التي وجدت فرصتها لتصفية حساباتها مع‬ ‫الواليات المتحدة األمريكية‪ ،‬ومن وجهة نظر بعض الخبراء‪ ،‬لعبت دول المنطقة دوراً كبيراً في جلب اإلرهاب إلى العراق‬ ‫من خالل تسهيل دخوله عبر أراضيها وتبرير أعماله اإلجرامية على أنها أعمال بطولية تستهدف المحتل وأخذت تشجع‬ ‫القتل الطائفي الذي يهدف إلى شق وحدة الصف العراقى‪ .‬التمويل الذي تحصل عليه الجماعات اإلرهابية والمبالغ الكبيرة‬ ‫المخصصة‪ ،‬وحدهما وراء إستمرار اإلرهابيين في عمليات القتل اليومية العشوائية‪ ،‬فالجهد العسكري الذي تبذله الحكومة‬ ‫العراقية مدعوماً بالقوات متعددة الجنسيات مازال عاجزاً عن وضع حد لإلرهاب‪ .‬لذلك يعتبر المراقبون أن على الحكومة‬ ‫العراقية وأجهزتها األمنية محاربة مصادر التمويل والقضاء عليها قبل محاربة اإلرهاب نفسه‪ ،‬ألن عملية القضاء على‬ ‫اإلرهاب ستكون مجهدة بالنسبة للحكومة العراقية والقوات األمريكية‪ ،‬التي جعلت العراق ساحة مكشوفة للجميع‪ .‬يرى‬ ‫بعض المحللين أن الواليات المتحدة يمكنها ان تستخدم نفوذها وعالقاتها للضغط على دول المنطقة وإجبارهم على وقف‬ ‫‪51‬‬

‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫تمويل االرهابيين وضبط حدودهم لمنع تسلل المقاتلين عبر اراضيها‪.‬‬

‫[‪]٤٣[]٤2‬‬

‫المساعدات األمريكية للعراق‪:‬‬ ‫وصلت المساعدات األمريكية للعراق في الفترة ما بين العام المالي ‪ 211٣‬والعام المالي ‪ 2111‬إلى ‪ 28.9‬مليار دوالر‪.‬‬ ‫وتساوى تقريبا ما منحته الواليات المتحدة أللمانيا بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية‪ .‬إستهدفت ‪٪٤1‬من المساعدات‪ ،‬أي ما يقارب‬ ‫ال ‪ ١١.٥‬مليار دوالر‪ ،‬إعادة بناء البنية التحتية اإلقتصادية للعراق من مطارات وطرق وسكك حديدية وموانئ وطاقة‬ ‫كهربائية وشبكة إتصاالت ومياه ومباني حيوية‪ .‬بينما اتجهت ‪ 1.2‬مليار دوالر (‪ )%22‬إلى التنمية الديمقراطية والصحة‬ ‫والتعليم‪ .‬أما الـ ‪ ١1.9‬مليار دوالر المتبقية (‪ )%٣8‬إتجهت إلرساء األمن العراقي عن طريق إمداد العديد من‬ ‫القوات(تشمل الجيش والشرطة) بالتدريب والمعدات‪ .‬وفي العام المالي ‪21١1‬م‪ ،‬إحتل العراق المركز الرابع كأكثر الدول‬ ‫[‪]٤٤‬‬ ‫المتلقية للمساعدات األمريكية‪.‬‬

‫وفي تطور آخر ورداً على سياسات العراق تجاه القضية السورية وقضية الشكوك المثارة حول سماح الحكومة العراقية‬ ‫بنقل أسلحة إيرانية للنظام السوري هدد السيناتور جون كيري رئيس لجنة العالقات الخارجية وقتها‪ ،‬والذى صار الحقاً‬ ‫وزيراً للخارجية‪ ،‬أثناء جلسة عقدها مجلس الشيوخ لتثبيت روبيرت بيكروفت كسفير للواليات المتحدة لدى العراق بخفض‬ ‫المساعدات األمريكية للعراق وصرح قائالً " أنه من غير المقبول السماح لبغداد بما تقوم به ‪ ،‬ففى الوقت الذى تحاول فيه‬ ‫[‪]٤٥‬‬ ‫أمريكا مساعدتها فى بناء الديمقراطية ‪ ،‬يقوم المسئولون بها بالوقوف ضد مصالحنا ومصالحهم الخاصة أيضا "‬

‫‪ 42‬علي جاسم ‪-‬الحوار المتمدن‪-‬العدد‪28 / 8 / 211٧ - 212١ :‬‬ ‫‪43"Terrorism Havens: Iraq" council on foreign relations. ttp://www.cfr.org/iraq/terrorism-havens-iraq/p9513 (accessed february‬‬ ‫‪19, 2013).‬‬ ‫"‪44Nina Serafino, Curt Tarnoff, and Dick K. Nanto, "U.S. Occupation Assistance: Iraq, Germany and Japan Compared‬‬ ‫‪Congressional Research Service. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33331.pdf (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬ ‫‪45"Kerry threatens to restrict U.S. aid to Iraq over Syria" Foreign Policy.‬‬ ‫‪http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/09/19/kerry_threatens_to_restrict_us_aid_to_iraq_over_syria (accessed february 19,‬‬ ‫‪2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫إنتهاكات حقوق اإلنسان في العراق‪:‬‬ ‫تعددت إنتهاكات حقوق اإلنسان في العراق‪ ،‬فتارة هناك عمليات قتل عشوائية وأخرى ذات طابع طائفي لتتعداها إلى‬ ‫تهجيرالعوائل من مناطق سكنهم لتزيدها أعداد المعتقلين في سجون القوات األميركية ناهيك عن سجون الحكومة العراقية‬ ‫والتي اليعرف حتى اآلن عددهم الحقيقي‪.‬‬ ‫ثم هناك ظاهرة الجثث المجهولة الهوية التي أصبحت سمة تطبع وجه العاصمة العراقية بغداد فما أن تختفي ألسابيع حتى‬ ‫تظهرعلى الساحة مرة اخرى وبطرق أبشع من سابقتها وتمارس فرق الموت والمليشيات المسلحة دورها في ترسيخ هذا‬ ‫اإلنتهاك الذي أخذ من أرواح العراقيين وتدفع كثيرين آخرين إلى خارج البالد بحثا عن مالذ شبه أمن ولو لوقت قصير‪.‬‬ ‫نهاد الجبوري‪ ،‬رئيس المفوضية العليا المستقلة لحقوق االنسان‪ ،‬يرى أن اإلنتهاكات في جانب حقوق اإلنسان في العراق‬ ‫كثيرة كاإلغتياالت والتهجير والقتل العشوائي‪ ،‬وقال متحدثاً إلى «الشرقاألوسط» أنه "بالنسبة الى ملف التهجير‪ ،‬هناك‬ ‫أعداد كبيرة قد هُجرت من مناطق عديدة في العراق‪ ،‬فمثالً عدد العوائل التي هجرت من المحافظات الجنوبية ومدينة‬ ‫كركوك إلى محافظة صالح الدين وبغداد كان ‪ ١1111‬عائلة‪ .‬أماالعوائل التي هجرت من محافظة نينوى فهي بحدود‬ ‫‪1111‬عائلة‪ ،‬لتزيدها العوائل المهجرة إلى محافظة األنبار‪ ،‬والتي تقدربـ ‪ ١٣111‬عائلة"‪ .‬وتابع "أمافي أطراف بغداد‬ ‫(الطارمية وأبوغريب) فقدهجر ما مجموعه ‪ 1٥11‬عائلة"‪ .‬وحول مسلسل اإلغتياالت‪ ،‬أكدت الجبوري "هناك تحرك‬ ‫جديد للميلشيات‪ ،‬حيث حصرنا منطقة بمسافة كليومترين بين المنصور والبجية‪ ،‬حيث تم تصفية أكثرمن ‪ ١1‬اشخاص"‪.‬‬ ‫لفت ايضًا الى أن "هناك إنتهاكات في مجال التربية والتعليم وحتى الطفولة‪ ،‬ناهيك من األمية وظاهرة المتسربين من‬ ‫المدرسة حيث بلغت أعدادهم ما بين ‪ ٥1 – ٤1‬الف متسرب‪ ،‬وإذا أردنا أن نتكلم عن حقوق اإلنسان في العراق فال وجود‬ ‫لها ابداً"‪.‬‬ ‫أما حارث العبيدي‪ ،‬رئيس لجنة حقوق االنسان في المجلس النيابي‪ ،‬فيقول إن اإلنتهاكات التي تحدث في العراق جلها في‬ ‫اإلعتقاالت والسجون‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى التجاوزات التي تحدث خالل مداهمات المنازل‪ ،‬مضيفاً "المشكلة الكبيرة هي أعداد‬ ‫المعتقلين والذي ناهز ‪ ٤1‬ألف معتقل‪ ١9 ،‬ألفا منهم في السجون األميركية و‪ 2١‬ألف معتقل في السجون الحكومية‬ ‫العراقية‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى أن ظروف السجون سيئة جداً"‪.‬‬ ‫ولفت العبيدي قائالً لـ«الشرقاالوسط» أن "هناك خرقاً للدستور‪ ،‬حيث هناك بعض المعتقلين لم تقدم أوراقهم خالل ‪٤8‬‬ ‫ساعة‪ ،‬كما ينص الدستور إانما بقيت أوراقهم غيرمقدمة لمدةسنتين وأكثر ولم ترفع قضاياهم إلى القضاء لحسمها‪ ،‬هناك‬ ‫مشكلة في التسجيل الجنائي ألننا النعرف عددالمعتقلين الحقيقي والأسماءهم والحتى أماكن إعتقالهم"‪.‬‬ ‫وتحدث العبيدي عن التهجير‪ ،‬وقال "أجد أن هناك تقصير اتجاه هذا الملف‪ ،‬كنا نأمل أن تؤدي خطة فرض القانون في‬ ‫بغداد إلى أن يعاد المهجرون إلى مناطقهم‪ ،‬لقد طال التهجير العوائل السنية والشيعية وحتى المسيحية منها‪ ،‬هناك عوائل‬ ‫موجودة في سورية تعاني األمرين‪ ،‬وحتى الموجودة في العراق لم تحصل على أي غطاء عيني أو مادي‪ .‬وطالبنا الحكومة‬ ‫[‬ ‫بأن تقوم بخطوات عملية وجادة بأن يعوضوا ولو بمعونات تعينهم على تجاوز محنتهم»‪٤1].‬‬

‫‪46"" shark aawsat. http://www.aawsat.com/details.asp?issueno=10261&article=419981 (accessed february 19, 2013).‬‬

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‫نموذج الكونجرس األمريكي الثاني عشر‪ ،‬جامعة القاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪April 19, 2013‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫خيارات الواليات المتحدة اإلستراتيجية فى العراق‪:‬‬

‫رغم إنتهاء الحرب الباردة‪ ،‬تبقى منطقة الخليج محتفظة بأهمية خاصة على الساحة العالمية‪ ،‬حيث شهدت صراعين‬ ‫كبيريين هما حرب الخليج األولى وغزو العراق‪ .‬ومع عدم إستقرار إمدادات مصادر الطاقة العالمية‪ ،‬فإن المنطقة مرشحة‬ ‫بقوة لإلحتفا بتلك األهمية‪.‬‬ ‫تتعدد خيارات الواليات المتحدة للتعامل مع المنطقة‪ ،‬فكخيار أول‪ ،‬من الممكن أن تعتمد الواليات المتحدة سياسة التحركات‬ ‫أحادية الجانب تجاه العراق‪ ،‬وإعادة فرض سياساتها عن طريق تواجد عسكرى مباشر أو غير مباشر من خالل قواعدها‬ ‫المنتشرة فى المنطقة‪.‬‬ ‫ومن الممكن أيضاً للواليات المتحدة أن تستخدم تفوقها اإلقتصادى فى حصار العراق‪ ،‬و إجباره على إتخاذ خطوات‬ ‫"تعديلية" فى إتجاة ديموقراطى‪ .‬ويبقى خيار دعم أحد أطراف المعارضة لإلطاحة بحكم نورى المالكى وتغيير النظام‬ ‫قائماً‪.‬‬

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