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The 14th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

The 14th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report E Pluribus Unum

The 14th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

The 14th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

Table of Contents Preamble ............................................................................................................................. 4

Rules of Procedures ........................................................................................................... 7

Committee on Foreign Relations .................................................................................... 15 First Topic: The Islamic State .................................................................................... 18 Second Topic: South China Sea ................................................................................. 36 Third Topic: Central African Republic ...................................................................... 53

Committee on Finance ..................................................................................................... 62 First Topic: Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) ..................................................... 64 Second Topic: Welfare Checks .................................................................................. 75 Third Topic: Carbon Pricing ...................................................................................... 95

Committee on the Judiciary .......................................................................................... 104 First Topic: Minority Rights ..................................................................................... 107 Second Topic: Life and Death in Choices ................................................................ 125 Third Topic: Cyber-bullying .................................................................................... 147

Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs ................................. 157 First Topic: The Warfare State ................................................................................. 160 Second Topic: Border Security ................................................................................ 180

Sub-Committee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs and Counterterrorism ......................................................................................................... 201

The 14th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

Preamble For 14 consecutive years, The Model of American Congress has been the pioneer model simulating a complete legislative process of the U.S. Senate in Egypt and the Middle East. Throughout its history, MAC has enriched the lives of thousands of Egyptian students, committing itself to providing the strongest academic experience to its participants. The publication in hand stands as a living proof of that commitment to excellence since 2001. Lots of things have changed since 2001, while MAC principles and values remained concrete, MAC went through different times, tested diverse approaches and experienced varying political conditions that makes it fair to say that MAC has changed skin over the years, coping with the ever-changing needs and the non-ending aspirations of both its staff and delegates. We believe that human beings are naturally different and diverse, their curiosity is the main engine of achievement and that through the restless process of imagining and exploring alternatives and possibilities, human life flourishes. And that whenever people are given discretion to be creative, with suitable conditions they always rise to the occasion. We see MAC as platform that gives people discretion, to think, express themselves, learn new things and change their surrounding reality. The point is that MAC is not merely a mechanical system. It's a human system. It's about people, people who want to learn, develop and help others develop on all levels. The strategy of development is implemented on MAC itself, as it has continuously developed its internal structure and hierarchy, the most recent one was continuing to build on the heritage of MACâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;14, by having a unified leadership hierarchy guided by MAC constitution which assures smoothness of work and professionalism in practice. This year, MAC also continued the successful conduction of MAC Juniors program, bringing a broader high school audience to the exceptional MAC experience. At the same time, MAC has continued to step up its social and community outreach projects that work parallel to MACâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s main academic message. It is always important to point out that the success of this year is credited to everyone who have exerted their time and effort, during various phases of the year, be it recruitment, sessions, events and the Conference, in order to improve the image of the model, utilize its different resources in the best ways possible and more importantly, help unleashing and discovering the hidden talents of all MAC participants, your contributions will always be appreciated.

The 14th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

This work before you is a combined effort of countless people. It is dedicated to the Secretariats team, the lifeblood of this model, who have spent restless days and nights preparing it, exerted great efforts and endured unimaginable pressure to produce this state-of-the-art quality level. Their challenging year incorporated huge sacrifices, some decided to miss their own TEDx talk to work on this publication, others gave up a tempting opportunity to visit their dream university and more importantly they all dedicated effort and time from their social and academic life to improve and brighten the MAC experience and move it forward, their pursuit is nothing less than admirable and their persistence is a main catalyst for MAC’s sustainability and progress, and for that we will be forever proud and grateful. It is dedicated to our delegates, the main beneficiaries of it and the very reason for MAC’s existence, they are the reason why this publication was prepared with such devotion and efficiency. It is dedicated to MAC’15 family in its entirety who made this year possible with their outstanding spirit and dedication. It is dedicated to our ALUMNI and everyone who contributed to this year, even if they are no longer a part of it. MAC’15 High-board

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Congressional Research Service Report

Higher Representative Mohsen Atef President Pro-tempore Ahmed Galal

Head of Organizing Committee Salah Ghanem

Deputy Head of the Academic Committee

Deputy Head of the Organizing Committee

Youssra Fouda

Nahla Hossam

Special thanks goes to the Head of Committee on Coordination Muhammed Shaarawi for his hard work and dedication throughout the year and particularly during the production of this publication

The 14th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

The 14th Model American Congress Rules of Procedures

Section I: Parliamentary Authority 1. These rules apply to all committees of The Model of American Congress (MAC), as well as to all of its floor sessions. 2. Procedures not covered by these rules may be decided in accordance with the standing rules of the U.S. Senate and MAC Constitution. However, in case of conflict, MAC rules take precedence. 3. MAC Chair is the final arbiter on questions of procedure and may, in the interests of debate and order, amend these rules at his or her discretion.

Section II: Senate Members and Officers First: The Presiding Officer 1. The presiding officer of each congressional body is selected by the MAC staff in advance of the Congress. The presiding officer of in the Senate, is the President; in committee, it is the Chair. 2. The presiding officer has the usual power and duties of presiding officers, including: 1. to declare the opening and closing of each session of the body, 2. to recognize all speakers, 3. to decide all points of order and procedural questions, 4. to conduct votes and announce their results, 5. to preserve order and decorum.

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Congressional Research Service Report

3. If for any reason the presiding officer must temporarily relinquish the Chair, he or she will appoint another staff member as a replacement Chair. The temporary Chair will preside until the return of the regular presiding officer, who will resume his or her position with the associated powers and duties. Second: the duties of the Vice-Chair shall be:

To chair the committee during the chairman/ladyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s absence or when the latter yields the floor to him, To conduct the roll call at the beginning of each session, To assist in the counting of the votes, To make sure that there is a quorum present at all times during which business is being transacted.

Third: the duties of the Ranking Member shall be:

To advise the Chairman/lady on the decision of any parliamentary questions, To direct the academic flow of the debate, To act as source of all academic materials that needed by the senators during the congressional meetings, To make sure that the committee bills are issued according to all technical and legal specifications, To read all bills.

Fourth: the duties of the Party Consultant shall be:

To arrange each and every party factions and wings, To work on the formulation of the party statement, To assist the Ranking Member in providing the Academic materials, To act as source of information with regard to party stances, To read all amendments.

Fifth: the duties of the Senators shall be:

To Work on the discussed committee topics, as well as issuing a bill on the discussed topics to be taken to the senate floor, To debate and negotiate according to their stances, To give speeches on the floor day to convince other senators with their stances, To assist the Chairman/lady in maintaining order and decorum.

Sixth, the duties of the Lobbyists shall be:

To work on the discussed committee topics, To lobby for or against the committee bills in the other committees and in the floor,

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Congressional Research Service Report

To provide the senators with the academic materials and any technical or legal support, in a way that serves his/her interests. To assist the Chairman/lady in maintaining order and decorum.

Section III: Standing Committees -

There shall be five standing committees. There shall be one chairman/lady and 20 senators for each standing committee. The committee on Rules and Administration shall consist of the Model of American Congress President, President Pro-Tempore, Deputy Head of the Academic Committee and the Chairmen/ladies of the five committees.

Section IV: Agenda and Order of Business -

The agenda of the Senate floor and each of the standing committees shall be drawn up in advance of their respective sessions. The Vice Chairman shall see that each member of the committee has received a copy of the agenda. Bills passed in the committee shall be forwarded to the Committee on Rules and Administration, where they will be placed on the agenda of the Senate floor. In any committee, the main sponsor of the bill may make any changes in the bill by arranging with the Ranking Member before the markup session.

Section V: Rules of Order 1. Only those points listed below will be recognized at The Model of American Congress. 2. Points are not debatable, they do not require a second, and the Chair's decision is final. 3. The order of precedence of the points is shown, in ascending order. When a point is pending, only points with a higher number, as shown below, are in order. 4. Points do not automatically take precedence over motions. The Chair will recognize delegates rising to points, at his or her discretion. POINT OF PERSONAL PRIVILEGE A delegate may raise a point of personal privilege whenever thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a request concerning his personal rights or the rights of the entire assembly. For example, it can be used to ask that a senator raises his voice, to open the windowâ&#x20AC;Śetc. Note: A point of personal privilege can only be raised when another delegates has the floor.

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POINT OF ORDER A point of order is used to raise other motions (including the suspension of rules, recess/adjournment and acclamation). Other purposes where a point of order is used are: caucuses, mark up sessions and congressional hearings. They require a 2/3 majority vote to pass. ACCLAMATION An acclamation preserves the bill before introducing any amendments so that in the case that the amended bill fails to pass, the original bill automatically proceeds to the floor. It requires a simple majority vote to pass. OBJECTION TO CONSIDERATION: (Only active on floor day) A bill may be denied consideration by passage of this motion. The motion must be made immediately after the bill or resolution is moved. Grounds for the objections must be specified- for example, the bill is unconstitutional, clearly frivolous, or outside the jurisdiction of the legislative body in which proposed. If the presiding officer permits, the objector and the sponsor of the bill may briefly (for one minute) state their positions. A 2/3 vote is required to sustain the objection. SUSPENSION OF RULES This motion suspends the rules of the assembly for a specific purpose and for a specific period. Normally, this is designed to allow the lobbyists to partake in the debate. It requires a simple majority vote to pass. “I’d like to raise a motion to suspend the rules for…”

RECESS/ADJOURNMENT A senator may call for a recess/adjournment of any meeting. A recess is meant for a specific period during the day (ex: coffee break) while an adjournment is done at the end of each day and at the end of the floor. It requires a simple majority vote to pass. “I’d like to raise a motion to adjourn this meeting until tomorrow” “I’d like to raise a motion to move to a recess for one hour”

RESERVE A POINT OF ORDER This motion is used while amendments are being introduced to the bill. After an amendment is read, the delegate who presented this amendment has the right to “reserve a point of order” and clarify the amendment for 1 minute.

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Section VI: Voting -

Voting on any motion consists of yelling out ayes and nays on behalf of the senators, if the result is unclear then voting is done by show of hands. If this proves to be uncertain as well; then a roll call is taken.

Both the simple majority vote and the 2/3 vote shall consist of the number of senators present.

Once voting has begun, all motions are out of order.

Abstentions are to be allowed only in the voting on the bill and amendments. It’s not permitted in voting on any motion.

Section VII: Debate Flow The Congressional Committee meetings: Chairman/lady: The Committee will come to order. We are meeting today to consider our congressional agenda the "….”, the "….", and the "…." Chairman/lady: <Opening statement> I will now yield the floor to the honorable Ranking Member to give his/her opening statements and read the congressional agenda. Ranking member: Thanks honorable Chair, <opening statement> and then reading the congressional agenda Thanks honorable chair. Chairman/lady: Thanks to the honorable Ranking Member. With a quorum (10) being present, the committee will now proceed the consideration of the declared agenda for this congressional meeting, and now the floor will be yielded to the Vice Chairman/lady to have the roll call, senators attending should reply as present. The Vice Chair: Thanks honorable chair, <Conducts roll call>, thanks honorable Chair. Chairman/lady: The honorable senator…..of….. Is recognized for two minutes for your opening statement Chairman/lady: Other members may submit opening statements comments for the record

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(The opening statements start by the leader of the majority party and his team then the leader of the minority party and his team) Chairman/lady: Honorable senators wishing to speak should raise their placards high and keep them high. Chairman/lady: The honorable senator…of….. is recognized for two minutes. Senator: Thanks honorable chair,<speech for two minutes> thanks honorable chair. Raising a Point of Order Senator: Point of Order! Chairman/lady: Honorable senator….of……what's your point? Senator: I'd like to raise a motion to move to a hearing session for…minutes. Chairman/lady: Honorable senator that’s in order, there’s a motion on the floor to move to a hearing session for…Those in favor say "aye" <pause> those against say "nay" <pause> (If only nays or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no. But the case that both nays and ayes are heard then a raising hands motion takes place) Chairman/lady: With…ayes and…nays, this motion clearly passes/fails.

The Mark up Session: Chairman/lady: The Committee will come to order. We are meeting today to consider S.111 the"…..bill title…..", a bill to….. Ranking member: Clarifying statement. Chairman/lady: With a quorum (10) being present, the committee will now proceed to the consideration of S111 the "…..bill title….” I'll now yield the floor to the ranking member to read the bill. Ranking member: <Reads the bill>. Thanks honorable chair. Bill Acclimation Senator: Point of order. Chairman: Honorable….of……what's your point? Senator: I’d like to raise a motion to move to an acclamation procedure on this bill. Chairman/lady: Honorable senator that’s in order, there is a motion on the floor to move to an acclamation procedure on this bill. Those in favor say "aye"

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Congressional Research Service Report

<pause> those opposed say "nay" <pause> Chairman/lady: With…ayes and…nays, this motion clearly passes/fails. Bill Amendment Chairman/lady: Now the floor will be opened for 10 minutes for having amendments, the party consultant will record the amendments. <Senators send amendments> Chairman/lady: The time for recording S111 amendments has elapsed, now the floor will be yield to the honorable party consultant to read the first amendment. Party consultant: Thank you honorable chair. < Reads the amendment> Thank you honorable chair. Note: After finishing reading the amendment if the member raised "reserve a point of order" at this time then he\she would be recognized for 1 minute. Chairman/lady: Honorable Senator you’re recognized for 1minute in the support of the amendment. Senator: <Explains the amendment> Chairman/lady: Honorable Senator your time has expired, since there is no further discussion, the question is on agreeing to the amendment offered by the honorable Senator. Those in favor say "aye"<pause>, those opposed say "nay" <pause> Chairman/lady: With…ayes and…nays, this amendment clearly passes/fails/ And so on the amendments are discussed and voted on. Voting on the Bill Chairman/lady: Hearing no further amendments, the question now occurs on the adoption of the amended bill. All those in favor say "aye"<pause> all those opposed say "nay"<pause> Chairman: With…ayes and…nays, this bill clearly passes/fails. Recess/adjournment Senator: Point of Order. Chairman/lady: Honorable….of……what's your point? Senator: “I move that we recess until…. ”or “I move that we adjourn” Chairman/lady: Honorable senator that’s in order, there is a motion on the floor to adjourn/recess for…..Those in favor say "aye" <pause> those opposed say "nay" <pause> Chairman/lady: With…ayes and…nays, this motion clearly passes/fails.

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Section VIII: The Floor -

The floor of MAC will involve the 100 senator as speakers, while the secretariats and the lobbyists are not recognized. However, the lobbyists conduct their task informally. Bills pass by simple majority, whereas treaties require a 2/3 vote. All the committeesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; rules and motions are in order.

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Committee on Foreign Relations

Congressional Research Service Prepared By: Chairman Adel El Hemaily

Vice-Chairlady Farah Amr Bahgat

Ranking Member Hesham El-Oraby

Party Consultant Noura El-Atreby

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Congressional Research Service Report

“No foreign policy - no matter how ingenious - has any chance of success if it is born in the minds of a few and carried in the hearts of none”. Henry A. Kissinger “Politics have no relation to morals”. Niccolo Machiavelli “The rights of every man are diminished when the rights of one man are threatened.” John F. Kennedy “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests” Henry A. Kissinger

Special dedication to MAC’15 team, the high board and fellow secretariats, and the fantastic delegates of this year, it was quite the journey. Thanks to everyone who worked on making this year an experience to savor for years to come. CFR is a home. CFR’15 Secretariats Team

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About the Committee History The Senate Foreign Relations Committee was established in 1816 as one of the original ten standing committees of the Senate. Throughout its history, the committee has been instrumental in developing and influencing United States foreign policy, at different times supporting and opposing the policies of presidents and secretaries of state. The committee has considered, debated, and reported important treaties and legislation, ranging from the purchase of Alaska in 1867 to the establishment of the United Nations in 1945.

Jurisdiction The Committee holds jurisdiction over all diplomatic nominations. Through these powers, the committee has helped shape foreign policy of broad significance, in matters of war and peace and international relations. Members of the committee have assisted in the negotiation of treaties, and at times have helped to defeat treaties they felt were not in the national interest.

Subcommittees: 1. Subcommittee on African affairs. 2. Subcommittee on East Asian and Specific Affairs. 3. Subcommittee on European Affairs. 4. Subcommittee on international development and foreign assistance, economic affairs and international environmental protection. 5. Subcommittee on international operations and organizations, human rights, democracy and global women's issues. 6. Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian affairs. 7. Subcommittee on Western hemisphere, Peace Corps and global narcotics affairs.

Chairmanship:

Chairman Senator Bob Corker Republican-Tennessee

Ranking Member Senator Ben Cardin Democrat-Maryland 17

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First topic: The Islamic State

Overview ............................................................................................... 19

II.

Evolution and Aliases .......................................................................... 20 a) Jamat al Tawheed wal Jihad (JTJ) .................................................... b) Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)..................................................................... c) Majles Shura al Mujahdeen (MSC) .................................................. d) The Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) .......................................................... e) The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) ..............................

III.

The Funding of the IS .......................................................................... 23 a) Oil Smuggling: ................................................................................. b) Controlled territory ...........................................................................

IV.

Allies ...................................................................................................... 24

Current Numbers ................................................................................. 25

VI.

Current Territories .............................................................................. 26

VII.

Human Rights Violations .................................................................... 27 a) Ethnic cleansing ................................................................................ b) Mass executions ................................................................................ c) Torture............................................................................................... d) Sexual violence ................................................................................. e) The other side of violence ................................................................

VIII.

Refugees ................................................................................................ 31

IX.

Return of the “Veterans” .................................................................... 32

Countering the Islamic State .............................................................. 33

XI.

Future Strategies .................................................................................. 35

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The Islamic State The Rise of the Black Flag

Overview: More known as DAESH, the Islamic State is an armed Sunni militant jihadist group that aims to restore the glory of Islam by establishing an Islamic regime “Khilafah” and asking all Muslims around the world to swear allegiance to their “Khalifah”. The group succeeded in controlling wide territories in Iraq and Syria and established their own capital in the city of “Ar-Raqqah” in Syria where the group started implementing its understandings and ideologies, which resulted in massive violations of human rights.

After controlling wide territories in Iraq and Syria the group’s aspiration to expand more and control more areas doesn’t threaten the stability of the Middle East only, but adding the group’s ideology, makes it clear that the more power the group acquires, the more and more it becomes an international danger. Threatening the intellectual security of Arab and Western countries causing them to form a coalition against it, yet the group is still operating and is raising its expectations; which raises questions about the world’s future and where next are we going to witness the rise of the black flag.

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Evolution and Aliases:

II.

The group operated for many years but under different aliases that accompanied the mutation of the group’s ideologies. The group’s history dates back to the early 1990s when a Jordanian jihadist called “Ahmed Fadeel al-Nazal al-Khalayleh” a.k.a “Abu Musab al-Zarqawi” started his journey of jihad.

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

a) Jamat al Tawheed wal Jihad (JTJ): Zarqawi’s jihad journey started when he traveled to Afghanistan to fight against the soviet occupation, yet by the time he arrived the soviets were already retreating. Not giving up on jihad Zarqawi decided to work back home1, where he aimed to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy, establish an Islamic regime and fight Israel2; however the Jordanian authorities arrested him and found weapons and explosives in his residence. After the crowning of King Abdullah II, Zarqawi was released as part of a sweeping amnesty. After his release Zarqawi traveled back to Afghanistan where he contacted Bin Laden, received aid from him and started his own training camp near “Herat” until the U.S. Led invasion of Afghanistan on 2001.3 Zarqawi fled to Iraq through Iran, where he masterminded the highlight of his network’s insurgent activities pre-Iraq war, the assassination of a senior US Diplomat Laurence Foley the Supervisory Executive Officer of USAID/Jordan on 28th of Oct. 2002. After the U.S. war on Iraq in March 2003, Zarqawi’s network a.k.a. “Jamaat al Tawheed Wal Jihad” shifted its operations to the inside of Iraq, starting its first post-war attack with the bombing of the Jordanian embassy in Baghdad, as Zarqawi accused his home MacAskill, Ewen and RoryMcCarthy. "A thug who will stop at nothing to create pure Islamic zone in Middle East." The Guardian (2004). <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/23/iraq.ewenmacaskill>. 2 Teslik, Lee Hudson. Profile: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. 8 June 2006. <http://www.cfr.org/iraq/profile-abumusab-al-zarqawi/p9866>. 3 Gambill, Gary. "ABU MUSAB AL-ZARQAWI: A BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH." Terrorism Monitor 2.24 (2004). 1

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country of collaborating with the west4, so he bombed the embassy on the 7th of August 2003; few days later and exactly on the 19th of August the same year he claimed responsibility for the bombing of the UN headquarters in the Canal Hotel in Baghdad. Continuing his attacks, a video was released on a website related to a militant group showing the beheading of the U.S. Citizen “Neck Berg” and in July 2004 as a result of this incident and many others that followed the United States raised the bounty on Zarqawi to $25 million, the same for Bin Laden himself.

b) Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI): On October 2004, both JTJ and Al Qaeda announced in a statement posted to an Islamic forum website that Zarqawi has pledged allegiance to Bin Laden after talks that lasted for 8 months, and JTJ’s name changed to “Tanzeem Qaedat al Jihad fe Bilad al Rafidayn” or as it was commonly called “Al Qaeda in Iraq” (AQI).5 The group continued its operations in Iraq against the U.S. Forces, but what caused an argument between AQI and Al Qaeda was the persistence of Zarqawi on attacking the shia Muslims, where Al Qaeda though that this attacks are causing people to be less sympathetic with AQI6, however Zarqawi kept on these attacks as he had a strategy of continuing these attacks till the eruption of a sectarian war.

c) Majles Shura al Mujahdeen (MSC): In January 2006 AQI attempted to unify with more Sunni insurgent groups and Iraqi tribes under the name “Majles Shura al Mujahdeen” or “Mujahdeen Shura Council” (MSC), although it was an unsuccessful attempt, yet AQI kept on attributing its attacks to the MSC.

d) The Islamic State in Iraq (ISI): On the 7th of June 2006, a targeted U.S. air strike of a safe house, resulted in the death of Zarqawi. On 12th of June Al Qaeda announced the successor of Zarqawi to be “Abu Ayyub al-Masri” a.k.a “Abu Hamza al-Muahjir”7; and in October he declared the group as the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI).

The Insurgency. PBS. 2006. Frontline. <http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/insurgency/etc/script.html>. 5 Global Security. Jamaat al-Tawhid wa'l-Jihad / Unity and Jihad Group. n.d. 22 April 2015. <http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/zarqawi.htm>. 6 BBC NEWS. "Profile: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi." BBC News (2005). <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3483089.stm>. 7 Tawfeeq, Mohammed. "Al-Zarqawi successor reportedly named." CNN (2006). <http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/06/12/iraq.main/>. 4

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On the 18th of April 2010, Abu Ayyub Al Masri was killed in a joint operation between the US and Iraqi forces8, and “Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi” succeeded him in leading the group9. The new ISI leader “Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi” found an opportunity in the Syrian protests that evolved then into a civil war, aiming to revive his group Baghdadi kept on sending fighters to Syria and funding them and they formed “Jabhet Al Nusra” that became then one of the main armed groups in the Syrian conflict.

e) The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL): After gaining momentum in the Syrian civil war by Jabhet Al Nusra, and in Iraq after the U.S. withdrawal, Baghdadi announced in April 2013 the merger of ISI and Al Nusra into “The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) ” or as it is called till now in the middle east by the acronym”DAESH”; however “Jabhet Al Nusra” stated that it had no knowledge of such merger and although it would be great yet it didn’t happen, Ayman Al Zawahry sent to Baghdady asking him to focus on the Iraqi Side and leave Syria to Jabhet Al Nusra; Baghdady kept on operating in Syria despite all. On the 29th of June 2014 after capturing Iraq’s second largest city “Mosul” ISIL announced itself an Islamic khilafah with Al Baghdady its khalifah and re-branded itself as the Islamic State with the city of Ar-Raqqah as its capital. ISIL also required Muslims around the world to swear allegiance to Al Baghdady or as they started to call him “Khalifah Ibrahim”10.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

BBC News. "Senior Iraqi al-Qaeda leaders 'killed'." (2010). <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8630213.stm>. 9 CNN Library. "ISIS Fast Facts." 8 August 2014. <http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/08/world/isis-fastfacts/>. 10 Mapping Militant Organizations. "The Islamic State." 10 March 2015. Stanford University. <http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/1>. 8

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III.

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The Funding of The IS: The Islamic state in Iraq and the Levant is often described as “the best financed extremist group”, with the sudden rise of the group there were doubts –some of them remain- that the group is receiving funds from wealthy sympathizers in the gulf countries but now there are a few recognized strategies of where IS gets its fund with estimates of revenue up to two million dollars per day from oil sales, extortion, taxes and smuggling.

a) Oil Smuggling: Oil represents IS biggest revenue; IS controls not only oil fields in Iraq and Syria but also a number of refineries. IS controls areas in northern Iraq and northern Syria with its power base in Raqqa – eastern Syria - it now controls more than half of Syria’s oil assets. In 2013, the group started a series of attacks on oil rich areas and seized all major oil fields and it has been estimated that IS controls about 11 oil fields in both Syria and Iraq.11

The journey of oil barrels starts with extracting the oil from fields then to primitive refineries and finally to whoever will buy it. Oil is either sold locally to citizens in IS territory, or to Turkish middle men towards the Turkish border, in which smuggling has always played a role in border economy. It has also been suspected that oil goes to Kurdistan regions in Iraq and from there to Iran or Bashar Al-Assad’s regime12.

Associated Press. "Here's a Breakdown of The Oil Assets ISIS Now Controls." 25 September 2014. Business Insider. <http://www.businessinsider.com/breakdown-of-the-oil-assets-isis-controls-2014-9>. 12 David Blair. "How Assad helped the rise of his 'foe' Isil." 22 August 2014. The Telegraph. <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11051566/How-Assad-helped-the-rise-ofhis-foe-Isil.html>. 11

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One of the reasons this is happening is that the oil is sold at a discounted rate compared with global prices. Oil is sold over the Turkish border for 5 liras ($2,30) per liter which is more than double the average in the U.S., but oil smuggled and sold through middlemen in southern and southeastern in the black market costs only 3 liras.13

b) Controlled territory: Unlike Al-Qaeda or any other group, IS is controlling territories, which is giving them opportunities that weren’t given to any group before. With basically no law enforcement, IS is funding itself through organized crimes such as, kidnappings which provide cash flow through ransoms, the group also operates as a government, it demands money from the people, and issues taxes.14

IV.

Allies: Since its uprising the group has merged and created its body from many militant groups, such as Mujahdeen Shura Council which later merged with several more insurgent factions in Iraq After Al Zarqawi, the founder was killed. There is no doubt that IS had a wide network of relations with different jihadist factions in plenty of Islamic countries. IS leaders took advantage of the bonds that were still strong between them and some leaders of jihadist organizations to convince them to join their group or their caliphate. IS spokesman Abu Mohammed Adnani issued a call asking all al-Qaeda branches around the world for their opinion concerning the group and the dispute with al-Qaeda. This call was met with silence from top-tier leaders in these factions Thus, it was not very odd that the statement made by a group from al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), led by Abu Abdullah Othman al-Assimi, condemned the silence of the leaders of their organization. This pushed the group to film a video, in which it declared its support for IS and pledged allegiance to Baghdadi as khalifah of the Muslims. This is not the only pledge of allegiance that IS got after announcing the Khilafah, since there was verified news of Ansar Bayt al Maqdis pledging allegiance after the most recent attack in Sinai Peninsula. Sheikh Mamoun Hatem’s group, leader in Ansar al-Sharia in Yemen, who is known for supporting IS even before the Khilafah, also pledged allegiance to Baghdadi. The pledge of allegiance also came from a group from the “Khorasan Group” Zalewski, Piotr. "Islamic State Smuggles Oil Into Turkey—With Hostages as Insurance." 11 September 2014. Bloomberg. <http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-09-11/islamic-state-smuggles-oil-intoturkey-with-hostages-as-insurance>. 14 Bronstein, Scott and Drew Griffin. "Self-funded and deep-rooted: How ISIS makes its millions." 6 October 2014. CNN. <http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/06/world/meast/isis-funding/>. 13

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Ansar al-Sharia branches in Tunisia and Libya, lean toward strong relations with IS, even though they have not recently pledged allegiance to the group. However, it is well known that leaders from Ansar al-Sharia, specifically in Tunisia, went to Syria and pledged allegiance to Baghdadi. First was Sheikh Kamal Razouk and Bilal al-Shawashi, an emir from Jabhat al-Nusra before organizing the independent Katibat al-Iqab. Some other groups include: Ansar Al Islam in Iraq, Jund Al Khilafah in Algeria, and Jund Allah in Pakistan. Such pledges of allegiance do not seem influential or capable of changing the power balance between IS and al-Qaeda. This realization pushed some to underestimate the announcement. Despite the accuracy of this characterization, the course of events in the region is complicated, making it hard to tell whoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s with or against whom. This pushes many to be careful and not underestimate the news of IS expanding from one country to another, even though itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s through small groups or sleeper cells. One cannot fail to point out that fighting is not the only thing IS needs. The distance between the groups pledging allegiance to IS does not stop them from offering the organization great services. Through their cells and groups, they can play a role in gathering financial donations, coordinating among those who wish to fight jihad or helping convince local religious scholars of IS perspectives. They can also play a security role in the interest of IS, gathering information about its opponents for use when the time is right, especially since the security apparatus of the Islamic State is considered the strongest and the most accurate compared to similar factions.

Current Numbers: Beginning from mid-2014, the Group name was changed from ISIL to IS, the Islamic State. The group continued to perform armed operations, the number of fighters has risen from the previous estimation of the CIA which was 10,000 to an estimate of between 20,000 and 31,000. Those numbers include at least 15,000 foreigners, 2000 of them westerners; this new total reflects an increase in members because of stronger recruitment since June following the declaration of a Khilafah, successful battlefield activities, and additional intelligence.

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Current Territories: IS has several territorial claims, which are not necessarily the actual ground status. As of fall 2014, the group has taken control of 15 provinces. Those territories extend from northern Syria, running across the border with Turkey and deepening into Iraq, almost entirely to the reach of Baghdad, it is hard to imagine or guess the situation within the claimed territories, however IS has been issuing a number of laws that has been surfacing to media, a most recent one is a law which bans a number of colleges due to their belief that they are forbidden in Islam, some of these colleges include, political science, law, and fine arts.

Other territories are claimed in the name of the Khilafah , but no actual ground forces are existent within these territories, On 13 November 2014, al-Baghdadi released an audiorecording in which he stated: "We announce to you the expansion of the Islamic State to new countries, to the countries of the Haramayn [Saudi Arabia], Yemen, Egypt, Libya and Algeria". In these countries he announced the creation of five new Wilayah or provinces, each with a governor, while nullifying all local jihadist groups. These areas were singled out because the group had a strong base in them from which it could carry out attacks. We can see an example of intended expansion of the group in these claimed territories, such as In Libya and during the Libyan civil war, when the group sent a few of its militants to the city of Derna, those fighters managed to unite local militants factions

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under their wing and threatened to kill any opposition, the territory has been named alBarqah province and an allegiance of loyalty was pledged to Al Baghdadi. In Sinai, after an operation on 24th October 2014, which claimed the lives of 31 army and police soldiers, a local militant group called “Ansar Beit Al Maqdis” pledged allegiance to IS, days later they claimed their responsibility for the attack, releasing a video for the attack in which they show the killing of aforementioned soldiers. The group then claimed Sinai as a province following the Islamic state.

VII.

Human Rights Violations: The International Criminal Court defines war crimes as, “serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in international armed conflict” and “serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in an armed conflict not of an international character ”.15 Recent report issued by the United Nations, based on 480 interviews and evidence collected from 20 January to 15 July 2014, has condemned IS of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The report says that 9,347 civilians have been killed and 17,386 others wounded up until September of 2014. During its history starting from JTJ to the Islamic State the group never concerned civilian lives, the group actually targeted civilians whether to start a sectarian war or just because they saw them worthless infidels. Mass and public executions, torture, sex slavery, forced recruitment of children, destruction of properties and abductions have also been pressing issues that drew more international attention to IS. In a statement to the press, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay said “ISIL is systematically targeting men, women and children based on their ethnic, religious or sectarian affiliation and is ruthlessly carrying out widespread ethnic and religious cleansing in the areas under its control”.

a) Ethnic cleansing: Sectarian violence has always been an issue in Iraq but the conflicts escalated by the rise of IS, members of ethnic and religious communities such as Yezidi, Christians, Turkmens and shi’a Muslims have been targeted, forced to flee their homes or face the fate of being tortured and executed.

Yazidis: Yazidis are an ethno-religious community; they are ethnically linked to the Kurds. They follow an ancient religion which believes that there is one god who created the world and that he placed it under the care of 7 angels.

Rule 156. Definition of War Crimes." n.d. International Committee of Red Cross. <https://www.icrc3.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v1_cha_chapter44_rule156#refFn_21_1> 15

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It is estimated that there is about 700,000 Yazidis in Iraq most of which reside in the northern part of the country. Although Yazidis have been targeted over the years, the situation worsened with the rise of IS. They have been described by the group as “devil worshipers”, and have been targeted largely which drew huge attention from international powers.16 Mount Sinjar: Sinjar is a town in northwestern Iraq where the majority of Yaizdis reside. On the 3rd of August, Islamic state fighters and vehicles advanced towards the town leading to the escape of approximately 50,000 people - without food or water to the mountains surrounding the town. According to one of the Yazidi’s lawmakers about 500 men were slaughtered in the first 3 days of the siege on the town, women were abducted and dozens others including children died from thirst and hunger.17 Eventually, the U.S air force were able to drop humanitarian aids to the Yazidis trapped in the mountain, and on 14th of august the Kurdish Peshmerga forces were able to secure an escape route.18

ii. Turkmens: The Turkmen origin can be traced originally to Turkish tribes in central Asia and while there is still a large presence of Turkmen in central Asia, they are considered the third largest ethnic group in Iraq. Iraqi Turkmen mainly reside in the area of northern Iraq and consider Kirkuk to be their capital; they have been victims of human rights violations and discrimination even before the era of Saddam Hussein. Despite the fact that the majority of Iraqi Turkmens are Muslims, they are still targeted by ISIS.19

iii. Shiite: Shiite Muslims are considered the second largest branch of Islam. Despite being a majority that makes up 60% - 65% of the Muslim population in Iraq they have struggled to obtain their rights for many years. In Syria however, Shiite Muslims are considered a minority.20 ISIS treats Shiite as apostates that only deserve to die and The Guardian. "Who are the Yazidis and why is Isis hunting them?" 7 August 2014. <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/07/who-yazidi-isis-iraq-religion-ethnicity-mountains>. 17 Smith-Spark, Laura. "Iraqi Yazidi lawmaker: 'Hundreds of my people are being slaughtered'." 6 August 2014. CNN. <http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/06/world/meast/iraq-crisis-minoritypersecution/index.html?hpt=hp_t3>. 18 Lister, Tim. "Dehydration or massacre: Thousands caught in ISIS chokehold." 10 August 2014. CNN. <http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/10/world/meast/iraq-isis-sinjar/>. 19 "Iraqi Turkmen." 11 March 2015. UNREPRESENTED NATIONS AND PEOPLES ORGANIZATION. <http://unpo.org/members/7878>. 20 Pew. "Mapping the Global Muslim Population." 7 October 2009. Pew Research Center. 16

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have been targeting them in both countries since the start of the conflict. On June 10, 2014 more than 600 male inmates from a prison outside Mosul city have been executed, surviving witnesses say that fighters separated Sunni men from Shia and Yazidi men forced them to kneel, robbing and insulting them before opening fire on them and later on setting their bodies on fire.21

iv. Christians: Christians are considered minority in both Iraq and Syria. In July, after IS captured city of Mosul and set fire to churches, Christians families started to flee their homes leaving their lives behind in an attempt to escape the dreadful destiny of converting, paying taxes, leaving or be killed.22

b) Mass executions: Victims of mass executions under the hands of IS usually face one of three accusations, being a part of another armed group or affiliated to them, violating IS “Sharia law” or simply by being non-Sunni Muslim. Executions are done by beheading or shooting the head at a close range. On Fridays, in Ar-Raqqah – the self-proclaimed capital of IS – executions are performed in public places and members of IS inform and sometimes force residents of the city to attend. Although Detainees captured by IS have no fair trials or any rights of appointing a lawyer the group justifies the executions by religious law. After the executions, bodies are left publicly displayed for days with no considerations of the religion of the deceased or otherwise.23 On November 2nd, IS has launched an attack on Albu Nimr Sunni tribe that lives in western Anbar provenance in Iraq, resulting in the killing of 322 member of the tribe including women and children. Albu Nimr also had a role in helping the United States against Al-Qaeda during the 2003 invasion.24

<http://www.pewforum.org/2009/10/07/mapping-the-global-muslim-population/> 21 Human Rights Watch. "Iraq: ISIS Executed Hundreds of Prison Inmates." 30 October 2014. <http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/30/iraq-isis-executed-hundreds-prison-inmates>. 22 Al Arabiya. "ISIS burns 1,800-year-old church in Mosul." 20 July 2014. <http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/07/20/ISIS-burns-1-800-year-old-church-inMosul.html>. 23 "Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic Reports." 12 March 2015. UN Human Rights. <http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/IICISyria/Pages/IndependentInternationalCommission.aspx>. 24 Gregory, Michael. "Iraq says 322 tribe members killed, many bodies dumped in well." 2 November 2014. Reuters. <http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/02/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-idUSKBN0IM0I920141102>.

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c) Torture: According to the United Nations report, IS has subjected people living in areas they control to torture and inhuman treatments. People have been enforced to different types of sufferings. Men have been punished for smoking, theft, possession of alcohol, trading during prayer hours and having improbably dressed female relatives. Also women who do not confirm to the dress code imposed by IS are lashed and beaten up. Torture and beatings include amputations, lacerating backs of men who are claimed to be guilty, tying victims to wooden boards or crucifix. Those held in detention centers controlled by IS suffer as well from degrading treatments, they are beaten up during interrogations and whipping detainees by cables. Men and women have been stoned to death for adultery. In one incident, a woman was tied with a rope and lead to a shallow pit in the ground, where she was stoned to death by her father among other men for committing adultery.25 In the Syrian city of Kobane, 153 Kurdish children between the ages of 14 to 16 were taken as hostages. They endure beatings and were forced to watch videos of mass killings. While there is no apparent reason for incident, some of them where exchanged for IS fighters detained by Kurdish groups and later on the rest were released.26

d) Sexual violence: Gender based violence have been largely carried out by the group, women have been subjected to rape, sexual and physical violence. Girls as young as 13 years old have been abducted and detained in housed with hundreds of other women and girls that act as sex slaves for the fighters. There have also been allegations that Yazidi women have been kidnapped by the group, forced to convert to Islam and sold into marriage.27

The other side of violence: As a result of the increased violence carried out by IS, an atmosphere of lawlessness and in retaliation several Shiite groups in both Syria and Iraq have been waging operation against Sunni civilians, the victims are usually abducted and later on found killed even after their families paid ransoms. In the city of Samarra, 170 men were abducted with dozens of them killed and the rest remain missing.28 "Islamic State video 'shows man stone his daughter to death'." 21 October 2014. BBC News. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29715737>. 26 Human Rights Watch. "Syria: ISIS Tortured Kobani Child Hostages." 4 November 2014. Human Rights Watch. <http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/11/04/syria-isis-tortured-kobani-child-hostages>. 27 CNN. "'Treated like cattle': Yazidi women sold, raped, enslaved by ISIS." 30 October 2014. CNN.com. <http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/30/world/meast/isis-female-slaves/>. 28 Amnesty International. "Iraq: Evidence of war crimes by government-backed Shiâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;a militias." 14 October 2014. Amnesty International. <https://www.amnesty.org/en/articles/news/2014/10/iraq-evidence-warcrimes-government-backed-shi-militias/> 25

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Refugees: According to UNHCR spokesperson, an average of 120 Iraqis per day have registered with UNHCR in Jordan in August and September of 2014, and almost two thirds of them come from areas under IS control. Refugees report "their homes being burned, threat of forced conversion to Islam, fears of forced marriage, kidnapping and public threats". However, the rest of the newly arriving refugees in Jordan have fled sectarian violence in Baghdad and Basra." At least 10,644 Iraqi refugees have registered with UNHCR in Jordan. As for Syrians, refugees from northern cities as Ar-Raqqah form the majority of the new arrivals. Furthermore, at least 65,000 Iraqi refugees have sought registration by UNHCR in Turkey, since IS took over Mosul. Out of 2,500 Iraqis, almost half of them said when interviewed by UNHCR partner in Ankara that they had escaped IS attacks, another 20 percent declared that they fled out of fear of IS attacks, while a further 20 percent said they had escaped sectarian violence.29 Since the Syrian conflict started in 2011, about 1.7 million Syrian refugees have fled to Turkey, and it is believed that Turkey already has more refugees than it can handle. According to official Turkish estimates, the country has spent about $4 billion in response to the refugee crisis, while the international community has added $240 million to help Turkey in this effort. 30 "Blue plastic sheets cover gaps in the half-open ceilings and small electric heaters fail miserably to warm the plastic rooms" According to UNPO â&#x20AC;&#x153;The most vulnerable refugees will suffer greatly during the winter because of the lack of adequate shelter and basic amenities,â&#x20AC;? Tom Robinson, director of local NGO Rise Foundation says to UNPO.31 Moreover, Thousands of Shiite Turkmens flee to Sinjar with the aim of fleeing to Kirkuk, Baghdad, Karbala or Najaf, nevertheless Peshmarga forces keep them waiting for days in the desert at the Hazer security checkpoint just outside Arbil.32

UNHCR. "Sharp increase in Iraqi refugees fleeing ISIS into Jordan and Turkey." 23 September 2014. <http://www.unhcr.org/54214cfe9.html>. 30 Groody, Daniel G. "Refugees, Fleeing ISIS, Threaten to Overwhelm Turkish Resources." 13 October 2014. America Magazine. <http://www.americamagazine.org/issue/refugees-fleeing-isis-threatenoverwhelm-turkish-resources>. 31 Human Rights Watch. "Human Rights Watch Reporter." 17 January 2005. UNPO. <http://unpo.org/article/1770>. 32 Hurriyet Daily News. "Iraqi Turkmen: Intense Summer Heat Poses Danger for Refugees in Iraq." 22 July 2014. UNPO. <http://unpo.org/article/17346>. 29

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Return of the “Veterans”: Intelligence reports from May to August revealed that IS may have up to 31,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria, which is three times as many as previously feared. However, not all fighters are Iraqis or Syrians, according to The Soufan Group, more than 12,000 foreign nationals had traveled to fight in Syria over the past three years.33 A UN report held by The Guardian declares that fighters flow into Iraq and Syria from more than 80 countries. “There are instances of foreign terrorist fighters from France, the Russian Federation and and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland operating together,” it states. “Truly cross-border attacks – or attacks against international targets – remain a minority,” the report claims, however, it indicates that the experienced fighters returning home will be a challenge.34 Abu Sumayyah al-Britani, an English jihadist who traveled to Syria one year ago and has joined IS, when interviewed with a radio podcast program called the "ISIS Show", he said:"Everybody's renouncing their affiliation with their countries, because we are now trying to establish the caliphate....Our citizenship means nothing to us anymore." Foreign secretary William Hague says that at least 400 British citizens may be fighting in Syria. Salman Ashrafi, a businessman in Canada flew to the Persian Gulf two years ago. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service revealed later that IS had released photos of Ashrafi and a eulogy saying he had carried out a suicide bombing north of Baghdad responsible for the murder of 19 Iraqis. In Spain 8 people were arrested on suspicion of recruiting militants. And in France the French authorities believe that more than 800 French nationals have traveled to Syria, or intend to, and it is believed that 80 % of Western fighters in Syria have joined IS. On the 24th of May 2014 a gunman opened fire at the Jewish Museum in Brussels Belgium, killing 3 people. The gunman was later arrested, a 29 year-old Frenchman called Mehdi Nemmouche who had traveled to Syria in 2013 to fight along with radical Islamist groups. French police seized a Kalashnikov rifle wrapped in a flag bearing the Isis black insignia furthermore the French and Belgian officials said there was evidence linking him to IS.35

BBC News. "What is Islamic State?" 25 September 2014. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east29052144>. 34 Ackerman, Spencer. "Foreign jihadists flocking to Iraq and Syria on 'unprecedented scale' – UN." 30 October 2014. The Guardian. <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/30/foreign-jihadist-iraq-syriaunprecedented-un-isis>. 35 "Suspect Held in Jewish Museum Killings." 2 June 2014. NYTimes.com. <http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/02/world/europe/suspect-arrested-in-jewish-museum-killings-inbelgium.html?rref=national&module=ArrowsNav&contentCollection=Europe&action=keypress&region=F ixedRight&pgtype=article&_r=1> 33

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Although the European officials said that this incident is the first committed in Europe by European citizen returning from the battlefields of Syria, yet, nothing grantees that such incident won’t be repeated in any of the origin countries of those to become “veterans”.

Countering the Islamic State: On September 10th 2014, President Barack Obama announced in a speech to the nation from the White House a strategy to face the Islamic State, “I can announce that America will lead a broad coalition to roll back this terrorist threat”. The coalition based on strategy adopted by the US composed of:  Continue performing airstrikes against IS  Increase support to forces against IS on the ground  Train and equip opposition fighters in Syria to form a counter weight  Provide humanitarian assistance to the displaced. On September 11th representatives of the GCC, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and USA stated in the Jeddah Communique their shared commitment to stand united against the threat posed by all terrorism, including the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), to the region and the world, the participating states also agreed to “do their share in the comprehensive fight against ISIL”. By the 17th of September the US had launched more than 160 air strikes in Iraq against IS, the role of some countries became clear while the president announced the role of others. In a speech in MacDill Air Force Base in Florida Obama listed that, KSA accepted to host the training of Syrian opposition fighters by the US, German paratroopers will offer help to train, other nations like Canada and Australia will send military advisers, while nations like France and the UK are “flying” with the USA.

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The US led Coalition has conducted until the 3rd of June 2015 about 4,013 confirmed airs trikes, according to Secretary of State John Kerry, not all countries play a direct role in the strikes, yet the Arab countries of Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, KSA and the UAE conducted air strikes, in addition to UK. Witnessing a variety of targets the yield of these air strikes is as follows:

The news of an Emirati female pilot was not the only unorthodox thing in this campaign, despite the conflicts between Iran and most of the countries in the coalition there were reports that Iran deployed phantom jets over the Iraqi provenance of Diyala; the initial reactions by the Iranians completely denied the incident and any military co-operation with the coalition and called such claims “imprecise & incorrect”, while the Secretary John Kerry didn’t confirm these strikes but only stated that “any Iranian action against IS in Iraq would be positive”. However, Iran confirmed these strikes 3 days later on the 6th of December36.

BBC News. "Islamic State: Kerry says any Iran strikes 'positive'." 3 December 2014. BBC.com. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30306106>. 36

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Although the US has credited before the air strike to reduce the danger imposed by IS, yet the effectiveness of the air strikes was questioned, the latest to criticize it was the Syrian president, in an interview to a French magazine on November 28th, Bashar al Assad said “You can’t end terrorism with aerial strikes. Troops on the ground that knows the land & can react are essential.”

XI.

Future Strategies:

With lots of voices from the inside and the outside questioning the effectiveness of the air strikes,  What can the United States do to form an effective strategy against IS and the threat it is imposing on the stability of the Middle East? 

How can the US guarantee that no terrorist attacks can reach the American soil?

Does the United States has an effective strategy against IS and towards the displaced and refugees? 

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Second topic: South China Sea

Overview .......................................................................................... 37

II.

History ............................................................................................. 38

III.

Importance of South China Sea .................................................... 40 a) Strategic Importance .................................................................. b) Economic Importance ................................................................

IV.

China’s Foreign Relations ............................................................. 42 a) Sino – Russian Relations .......................................................... b) Chinese – Vietnamese Relations ............................................... c) Chinese – Philippines Relations ............................................... d) Chinese– Taiwanese relations ................................................... e) Chinese – Japanese relations .................................................... f) Chinese – Malaysian Relations................................................. g) China – Brunei Relations .......................................................... h) Sino - American Relations ........................................................

Chinese and U.S. Strategies in the Area ....................................... 49 a) Cabbage Strategy ....................................................................... b) Salami Slicing ............................................................................ c) Air Sea Battle .............................................................................

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South China Sea The Creeping Winter of Superpowers I.

Overview: One of the heaviest marine routes in the world, 3 times more than the Suez Canal and 5 times more than Panama Canal, the South China Sea is currently the arena of high tension among the ASEAN countries and China. Rich in hydrocarbons and fisheries and provides a strategic influence on world trade, China is trying to dominate this area, resulting in conflicts and sometimes clashes with the other claiming countries; with the defense treaties between the US and Japan and the US and the Philippines it is obvious that these superpowers are witnessing a creeping winter, but the question is how can the US avoid being dragged to a war with a nuclear country.

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History: The territories of the South China Sea have been an ongoing dispute over what can be traced back to the third century. Currently the dispute in the South China Sea has been going over territory and sovereignty between China, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia, Mainly over the Paracel and Spratly island chains. It can be shown historically that the first nation to claim certain swaths of south China sea was in fact China, with a reminder that present nations and the erection of civilization was not yet present in other –presently- neighboring countries, the first claim by China was to the Paracel and Spratley islands during the third century, and that dominance kept on through until the 13th century, China by then had a naval force, and historians documented that from the 5th to the 13th century, all the dynasties that ruled, have been dispatching naval forces to the above mentioned islands. It wasn’t until the 19th century, when some countries who were at the time starting to fully sovereign themselves that the disputes started, it can be said that the first nation to claim the south China sea territories was Vietnam, Vietnam at the time started sending troops to the south China sea as exploration expedition, but ended up building religious structures on the Islands they visited. At that time circa 1884-1885, France was acting as a regional partner to China, helping it winning over territories in what was called, the Sino-French war, so when at that time, England made the first Legal claim for the Spratlys islands, so in reaction, France signed convention with China in 1887, named “The Convention Respecting the Delimitation of the Frontier Between China and Tonkin”, the convention said that China was the actual owner of the Spratlys and Paracel islands.

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By the Early 1900s, China was regularly sending naval forces to inspect the islands, as France was starting to lay claim to the islands, China was even starting explorations on the islands for resources, then up to the WWII, when Japan invaded the Islands and starting controlling them through its forces in Taiwan and Hainan district of China, it wasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t until the surrender of Japan in 1945 during WWII, that Japan surrendered the Islands over to China where China then claimed all the south China sea as its territory and drew what is known as the 11 line map which later on will be known as the 9 line map in 1947, a line which stretches hundreds of miles south and east from its most southerly province of Hainan. Beijing says its right to the area comes from 2,000 years of history where the Paracel and Spratly island chains were regarded as integral parts of the Chinese nation; it showed the two island groups falling entirely within its territory. Those claims are also adopted by Taiwan, as the Republic of China; as each of the two governments believes itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the legitimate ruler of China -the main land and the Taiwan island- hence the legitimate ruler of the territories following it, so both governments use the plan as an evidence to strengthen its claims.

Later on, North Vietnam, announced that historically belonged to China by Historical right, an opinion which later be renounced. By the early 70s, The Philippines was laying 39

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claims to the Spratleys islands which are adjacent to it, invoking its geographical proximity to the Spratly Islands as the main basis of its claim for part of the grouping, such claim was an action against Taiwanese forces attacking fishing ships in this area Both the Philippines and China lay claim to the Scarborough Shoal (known as Huangyan Island in China) - a little more than 100 miles (160km) from the Philippines and 500 miles from China. During this era a lot of claims were going around the table, as South Vietnamese forces tried to invade some of the Paracel Islands but got ousted by the Chinese forces, and ended up with a newly formed Vietnamese government claiming its historical right to both, the Spratly and Paracel Islands. The Early 90s, China issued a law claiming the entirety of South China Sea as its territory, and up till the 2000s, the area has been seeing ongoing conflicts, especially between Philippines which has been sending ships over the region regularly, Taiwan which insisted that the islands are a long historical claim to it, and China which has been harassing ships in the area, including naval pieces belonging to the Philippines, Taiwan and the U.S.

III.

Importance of South China Sea A semi enclosed sea, right at the intersection between the Indian Ocean region and East Asia, displaying somewhat similar characteristics to the Mediterranean Sea and the Caribbean Sea. “The 21st century’s defining battleground,” and the “throat of global sea routes” As Journalist Robert Kaplan calls it. The South China Sea is one of the most important trade routes in the world. The sea is rich in resources and holds significant strategic and political importance. It stretches from Singapore and the Strait of Malacca in the southwest to the Strait of Taiwan in the northeast.

a) Strategic Importance: According to professor Nicholas Spykman, the South China Sea belongs to what he describes as the “girdle of marginal seas” swaddling the Eurasian mainland. Controlling such marginal seas is essential to projecting power into the Eurasian rim-lands and thence into the vast interior, he explains. The South China Sea is also joining the two oceans constituting the “Indo-Pacific” region; that seagoing forces usually pass over, alighting around the Asian perimeter as strategic circumstances warrant.37

Holmes, James R. "Strategic Features of The South China Sea : A Tough Neighborhood for Hegemons." n.d. U.S. Naval War College. <https://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/32cf501b-398b-458b-a7da37

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b) Economic Importance: "Asia's robust economic growth boosts demand for energy in the region. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects total liquid fuels consumption in Asian countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to rise at an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent, growing from around 20 percent of world consumption in 2008 to over 30 percent of world consumption by 2035. Similarly, nonOECD Asia natural gas consumption grows by 3.9 percent annually, from 10 percent of world gas consumption in 2008 to 19 percent by 2035. EIA expects China to account for 43 percent of that growth" according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Countries in the area will look to new sources of energy to meet domestic demand with Southeast Asian domestic oil production projected to stay flat or decline as consumption rises. Particularly, China, which promotes the use of natural gas, setting an ambitious target of increasing the share of natural gas in its energy mix from 3 percent to 10 percent by 2020. The South China Sea offers the potential for natural gas discoveries, encouraging to secure larger parts of the area for domestic production. Around 6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of liquefied natural gas (LNG), or over half of global LNG trade, passed through the South China Sea in 2011 EIA estimates, using data from PFC Energy and Cedigaz. Around 56 percent of this volume (3.4 Tcf) continued on as imports to Japan, 24 percent to South Korea (1.4 Tcf), 19 percent to China and Taiwan (0.6 and 0.6 Tcf respectively), and the rest to other regional countries. Qatar was the biggest exporter through the sea with 1.2 Tcf. Qatar, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia accounted for almost 75 percent of all LNG exports to the region. Furthermore, according to EIA estimates, the South China Sea contains about 11 billion barrels of oil, and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Half of the world's annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through the Straits of Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok, most of them continue on to the South China Sea. Around third of global crude oil and over half of global LNG trade passes through the South China Sea. And according to data from Lloyd's List Intelligence tanker-tracking service and GTIS Global Trade Atlas, about 14 million barrels of crude oil pass through the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand every day, "almost the third of global oil movement."38

41d4457be71e/Strategic-Features-of-the-South-China-Sea--A-Tough.aspx>. 38 U.S. Energy Information Administration. "South China Sea Strategic Importance." n.d. <http://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=SCS>.

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China’s Foreign Relations: a) Sino – Russian Relations: Even though they had a history of uneasy relationships the Sino - Russian relations following the collapse of the Soviet Union have improved, with a long shared land border and a twenty year treaty cooperation treaty signed since 2001, the two countries now enjoy a strategic partnership. Economically, Russia and China have trade agreements, with Russia being one of the top energy producers and China one of the world’s largest consumers. The two countries have wide agreements ranging from trade, economy, energy, to local cooperation and environmental protection. The relationship between China and Russia doesn’t end with economic ties, their military cooperation have been growing over the years. From 1990 – 2007, it was estimated that Russia sold China about $25 billion worth of weapons39. Regardless of China and Russia making the largest naval exercise ever in the Western Pacific in 2012, Russia had not taken any stand supporting China’s position in the South China Sea dispute. For Russia, publicly supporting the position of China will only cause more problems, Russia have enjoyed good relations with countries boarding the south China sea and doesn’t want to give that up for the sake of China. Secondly, the territorial expansions of China have caused some worries within Russia and with the Ukraine Crisis raising enough confrontation between Russia and the west, Russia doesn’t need more enemies. Furthermore, China chose to abstain from the U.N Security Council vote regarding the Ukrainian situation, and that didn’t cause any tensions between the two countries nor did it mean that China doesn’t support the Russian decision so by the same logic, the Russian neutral stance doesn’t mean that it doesn’t support China.40

b) Chinese – Vietnamese Relations: Following the end of the third IndoChina war between Chinese and Vietnam the two countries have been trying to patch their relations. With 1300 kilometers of shared boarder, bilateral trade between them has improved drastically since 1990. China is Vietnam’s biggest trade partner; China’s main exports to Vietnam are energy Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. "China-Russia Relations: Bonding but Can it Endure?" 18 April 2013. <http://idsa.in/issuebrief/ChinaRussiaRelations_msingh_180413.html#footnote10_3ifp2ym>. 40 Chunshan, Mu. "Why Doesn’t Russia Support China in the South China Sea?" 21 June 2014. The Diplomat. <http://thediplomat.com/2014/06/why-doesnt-russia-support-china-in-the-south-china-sea/>. 39

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from hydro-power, some agricultural products and electronics while Vietnam main exports to China are iron, copper and agricultural products.41 Despite socialist background, shared ideological and cultural past, and the two countries efforts to improve economic and diplomatic ties they remain in dispute over territorial issues in the South China Sea. Vietnam have longed opposed China’s claims regarding the south China sea especially over the islands of Paracels and Spratly, saying that it had ruled over them since the 17th century and that China’s claims were nonexistent before the 1940s.42 The Sino – Vietnamese relations have deteriorated rapidly in May 2014, when China deployed an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam as part of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) causing anti-China protests to spread over in parts of Vietnam. In July, China withdrew its oil rig and bilateral meetings between the two countries have been held with hopes of solving disputes over the South China Sea and agreed to manage their maritime differences. Moreover, border negotiation mechanism is not new to China and Vietnam; both sides have signed agreements before in 2011 and 2013 to negotiate maritime disputes but those agreements have done nothing.43

c) Chinese – Philippines Relations: Similarly to the Chinese - Vietnamese relations, the Chinese - Philippines relations have been improving over the last few decades, both countries strive to have economic and diplomatic relations with each other. China and Philippines have a number of agricultural, industrial and investments agreements. In addition in that in 2012 China was ranked as the Philippines third major trading partner.44 However, territorial disputes have created a tense backdrop in their diplomatic relations. Philippines main claim regarding the South China Sea is based on its geographic proximity to the Spratly islands. in April 2012 a Filipino navy ship attempted to expel Chinese fishing boats from the area of the Scarborough Shoal as the Filipinos claimed that the Chinese were harvesting endangered species within the Filipino EEZ and as a result China sent vessels to surround EYLER, BRIAN. "The Coming Downturn of China-Vietnam Trade Relations." 9 July 2014. East by Southeast. <http://www.eastbysoutheast.com/fear-change-future-china-vietnam-trade-relations/>. 42 BBC News. "Q&A: South China Sea dispute." 17 April 2015. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asiapacific-13748349> 43 Tiezzi, Shannon. "Can China and Vietnam Overcome Their Territorial Disputes?" 27 October 2014. The Diplomat. <http://thediplomat.com/2014/10/can-china-and-vietnam-overcome-their-territorial-disputes/>. 44 Philippine Consulate. "Philippine-China Trade Relations." n.d. <http://www.philcongenshanghai.org/pages.asp?ids=519>. 41

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Philippines ships, the standoff lasted for a couple of months before the U.S. intervened and agreed with the two parties to withdraw. In spite of the Philippines withdrawal, China’s vessels remained which lead the Philippines to file a lawsuit before the UN court.45 As a result, the Philippines have been one of the most active countries that tried to push for a code of conduct on the South China Sea - along with Vietnam - to be approved by the ASEAN. In 2013, the Philippines was the country of honor at the China ASEAN expo so despite all of the controversial political relations between the two countries, their economic relations hadn’t been affected.

d) Chinese– Taiwanese relations: The republic of China (Taiwan) is the name of the state that governed Taiwan, China and magnolia until 1949. Following the end of the Chinese civil war, mainland China became the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan became the republic of China, however China sees Taiwan as a Chinese provenience that should only be reunified with the People’s Republic of China. After years of tensions, in the 1980s China came up with an idea of making Taiwan and China “one country, two systems” but the offer was refused by Taiwan which only caused more tensions.46 China and Taiwan have had limited relations, with each country striving to be recognized as the “real” China. Since 2008, the two countries have had trade agreements and Taiwan started to limit restrictions on travelers coming for China, but representatives of the two countries had only met through unofficial organizations or retired officials because China still considers Taiwan as a part of its territory and doesn’t recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty. The first ever meeting between two representatives of the countries was held on February 2014 with hopes of easing the tension between them.47 Due to political mistrust between China and Taiwan, Taiwan has not taken sides with China in the South China Sea. On the contrary, Taiwan claims control over most of the South China Sea using the same nine-dash argument that China uses. Most of the

Al Jazeera. "Philippines sues China over sea claims." March 2014. <http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/03/philippines-sues-china-over-sea-claims-nine-dashedline--201433055112597830.html>. 45

BBC News. "Taiwan Flashpoint." n.d. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/04/taiwan_flashpoint/html/history.stm>. 47 Ramzy, Austin. "China and Taiwan Hold First Direct Talks Since ’49." 12 February 2014. New York Times. <http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/12/world/asia/china-and-taiwan-hold-first-official-talks-sincecivil-war.html?_r=0>. 46

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countries involved in the dispute doesn’t consider Taiwan a real threat, even though Taiwan controls one of the islands in the sea – Itu Aba – and is considering building and port and putting permanent armed vessels in the area.48

e) Chinese – Japanese Relations: China and Japan had been rivals since the Sino – Japanese war in 1894, tensions have remained over the years with continuous fighting over land (Taiwan) and sea (East China Sea) disputes. Their relation remained unstable until 1972 when finally relations were normalized. Being the second and fourth largest economies in the world, both countries have a great impact on the world’s economic welfare. For three decades now, both countries have had economic and trade agreements and investments. However, several political issues are gets in the way of building a long-term confidence between the two. Territorial disputes over the East China Sea Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, their continuous quest for energy resources and the U.S. – Japanese relations have all been obstacles in the face of any efforts to build bilateral relations.49

f) Chinese – Malaysian Relations: The Chinese Malaysian relations have been fruitful since the end of the cold war; the two states have had 40 years of strong founded diplomatic and economic relations. Malaysia was the first ASEAN country to establish diplomatic ties with China. They have a number of trade agreements and China is considered Malaysia’s largest trading partner. The two countries have had cooperation in the scientific, cultural, educational, touristic and military fields. Malaysia like other ASEAN countries also claim parts of the SCS which is said to lay in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the country. However, unlike Vietnam and Philippines Malaysia have taken a more subtle approach toward the issue, hoping to resolve it with peace talks and negotiations without affecting its relations with China.50

g) China – Brunei Relations: Just like Malaysia, China has enjoyed good bilateral relations with Brunei over the years with no issues threatening their relations other than the South China Sea. Brunei only GOLD, MICHAEL. "Taiwan considers permanent armed ships for disputed South China Sea island." 16 October 2014. Reuters. <http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/16/us-taiwan-soutchinaseaidUSKCN0I509I20141016>. 49 The Institute for Security and Development Policy. "Sino-Japanese Relations." n.d. <http://www.isdp.eu/component/content/article/246-projects/522-sino-japanese-relations.html>. 50 Embassy of the People's Republic of China in Malaysia. "Chinese-Malaysian Bilateral Relations." n.d. <http://my.china-embassy.org/eng/sbgx/t172144.htm>. 48

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claims the Louisia Reef which is a part of the Spratlys islands; it rests its claims on the same basis as Malaysia claiming the Louisia Reef lays in the EEZ of the country.51

h) Sino - American Relations: Sino-American relations root back to the 18th century, when Americans were economically interested in China after Europe refused trade with them. The Empress of China was the first ship from the United States to land in China. The Chinese welcomed trade with America, and actually preferred them to Europeans who only wanted to sell them things rather than buy from them. The American political system also inspired some Chinese leaders, for instance, the father of modern China Sun Yat-sen is believed to have built his philosophy of “Three Principles of the People” after Lincoln’s “of the people, by the people, for the people.” The principles that became part of the new republic’s constitution since Sun helped to overthrow the Qing Dynasty in 1911 and founded the Republic of China. When Europe and Japan were expanding their colonial empires in the late 1800s, some of them sought to divide China into colonies, but U.S. believed it was in their interests that China remained independent and united. Thus, the U.S. sustained an “Open Door” policy -an “open door” for China to foreign investment and trade that no nation would control it, which was considered vitality to the U.S. policy towards China by the end of World War II. So, the US believed that Japan's trial to expand its empire in the 1930s, the U.S. is a violation to the “Open Door” policy. The U.S. flew squadrons of B-29s from China in the war, and sent it significant amounts of aid. Furthermore, the U.S. insisted that China be included as one of the five Permanent Members of the U.N. Security Council. On the other hand, the U.S. passed the Chinese Exclusion Act in 1882, which this marked the first time the U.S. had restricted immigration. The U.S. later prohibited Chinese immigrants from obtaining citizenship because of their race, which it had never done before. And when U.S. forces joined other nations in protecting Americans and Europeans in Peking during the Boxer Rebellion in 1899, some Chinese branded the U.S. a foreign exploiter. After the founding of People’s Republic of China in 1949, Mao Zedong’s Communists drove Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists onto Taiwan. American and Communist Chinese forces fought against each other in the Korean War in 1949. And the U.S. and the PRC were on the edge of a nuclear war in the 1950s due to communist threats against Taiwan. Roach, J. Ashley. "Malaysia and Brunei: An Analysis of their Claims in the South China Sea." August 2014. CNA Occasional Paper. <http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/IOP-2014-U-008434.pdf>. 51

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Moreover, the U.S. is believed to have gone to war in Vietnam in part to prevent the expansion of Chinese Communism. But in 1972, President Richard Nixon reestablished relations with the PRC in 1972 by spending eight days in China, where he met with Chairman Mao Zedong and signed the Shanghai Communique, setting the stage for improving the relations by allowing the two countries to discuss difficult issues like Taiwan. Nixon believed that better relations with China would balance the rising power of the Soviet Union. Chinese leaders were interested in the approach because they were worried about the USSR as well. President Jimmy Carter allocated China full diplomatic recognition, in addition to agreeing to the PRC's policy of "One China", while Maoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s successor, Deng Xiaoping, wanted to bring China closer to the West. However, Xiaoping believed that the Communist Party have to remain in power. Thus, he opened the economy even though he wanted to prevent political liberalization at home. An economic rise was the result, in addition to the killing of protestors in Tiananmen Square in 1989, which lead to the suspension of the U.S. government to military sales to Beijing.

This Massacre as well as the end of the Cold War affected the Sino-American relations. The two countries grew closer economically, while their foreign policies grew apart. "When NATO mistakenly bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, during its war in the Balkans, it convinced many Chinese that the U.S. was trying to contain China. At the same time, Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s lack of respect for human rights, its efforts to steal American technology, and its growing military power raised American doubts about whether the U.S. could work with China." said Dean Cheng, senior research fellow at Asian Studies Center. The accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade by NATO during a campaign against Serbian forces in Kosovo in 1999 shook the Sino-American relations. 47

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An incident that resulted in protesting of Chinese demonstrators and attacking official U.S. property post an apology by the United States and NATO. However, President Bill Clinton signed the US-China Relations act of 2000 giving Beijing permanent normal trade relations with the United States, and allowing China to join the World Trade Organization in 2001, as well as becoming the United States second biggest trade partner after Canada. China was a mediator to bring back the negotiations with North Korea when it walked away from Six Party talks in 2005 that were held to control Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. In 2008, China surpassed Japan and became the largest holder of U.S. debt at around $600 billion. And the independence between the U.S. and Chinese economy was threatening global economy. Two years later, China became world's second largest economy at $1.33 trillion. The U.S. and China are considered today to resemble Europe's great power in the last century. Although they have financial relationships that shape the global economy, they have contradicting foreign policies. For instance, they have different policies toward Syria, North Korea and Iran. Furthermore, China doesn't really mind nuclear weapons, as well as being close friends with Pakistan. China also supports dictators as Zimbabweâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Robert Mugabe and Sudanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Omar al-Bashir. Suppression of human rights is just another matter that is dodging the two countries' relationship with mutual mistrust; China is considered to be a dictatorship under the communist part, for Chinese citizens are not all free about having as many children as they want, for instance, or freely worship any god they believe in, or even have opinion about their leaders. In addition to the restrictions on freedom of speech As for military forces, the U.S. forces are superior to the numerically larger Chinese forces, however, a double digit growth in China's defense budget has made it "a professional force that carefully analyzes the American military to identify its weaknesses." The United States believes that China's military alteration is partially to compel the freedom of movement of the U.S. military in Asia, as well as preventing the U.S. intervention in case China uses force against Taiwan. The United States is also concerned that that China using force against its neighbors over territory in the East China Sea and the South China Sea could undermine the stability upon which the prosperity of the region depends. Some in Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s government have been unnerved by the late 2011 announcement of a U.S. policy of strategic rebalancing toward

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Asia, viewing it as encouraging China’s rivals in territorial disputes and constraining the activities of the Chinese military. Furthermore, U.S. policy toward Taiwan is considered to be the most long-standing source of grievance for China on the security side of the bilateral relationship, that China sees as a conspiracy to prevent the PRC’s unification with Taiwan.

Chinese and U.S. Strategies in the Area: China has been following few approaches in dealing with the other claimants in the region, such as:

a) Cabbage Strategy: Since the April 2012 incident with the Philippines, China has adopted a strategy in order to “defend” its fishermen in the area, where Chinese fishermen surround an island forming an inner ring, surrounded by another ring of fishery administration ships and marine surveillance, and the outer ring formed by the navy warships. Surrounding the island by successive layers like a cabbage. Such strategy is not only used as a means of defending Chinese fishermen, as a Chinese Major General suggested that this strategy should be used by China to put other islands under siege, preventing supplies to reach them and forcing any troops in any contested island to leave as a result of such siege52. Which is being executed by China in some of the contested islands53. China is furthermore using fishing vessels as “proxy enforcers”54 whereas these vessels do not only surround an island, but being used in harassing vessels of other nationalities and protect China’s claimed territories, such strategy was executed in September 2010 when Chinese fishing boats collided with 2 Japanese coast guard vessels near the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands55, May 2014 when China moved an oil rig into Vietnamese waters defended by coast guards and fishing vessels and when Chinese vessel rammed and sank a Vietnamese fishing vessel56. China Daily Mail. "China boasts of strategy to “recover” islands occupied by Philippines." 28 May 2013. <http://chinadailymail.com/2013/05/28/china-boasts-of-strategy-to-recover-islands-occupied-byphilippines/>. 53 New York Times. "A Game of Shark and Minnow." 27 October 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/>. 54 Defense News. "Fishing Vessels in China Serve as Proxy Enforcers." 17 August 2014. <http://archive.defensenews.com/article/M5/20140817/DEFREG03/308170013/Fishing-Vessels-ChinaServe-Proxy-Enforcers>. 55 Council on Foreign Relations. "China's Maritime Disputes." n.d. <http://www.cfr.org/asia-andpacific/chinas-maritime-disputes/p31345#!/?cid=otr-marketing_use-china_sea_InfoGuide&>. 56 PERLEZ, JANE. "Vietnamese Vessel Sinks in Clash Near Oil Rig." 27 May 2014. New York Times. <http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/27/world/asia/vietnam-boat-sinks-in-clash-near-oil-rig.html?_r=0>. 52

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b) Salami Slicing: salami slicing is a delicate art of war, according to such strategy a series of actions is taken in order to weaken the opponent or change the status quo, giving that each action taken is small enough not to draw attention or form a casus belli, i.e: each piece sliced is small enough not to hurt the current salami owner, but on the long run form a gradual change in the status quo. Such strategy can be noticed in the Chinese response of the April 2012 incident where the situation “ended with China occupying the Shoal in violation of an oral understanding reached with Manila to withdraw all vessels from the area. This constituted the first instance of a change the status quo of a land feature in the South China Sea since 1995 when China seized control of Mischief Reef.”57 The Chinese “creeping annexation” as described by some observers58 doesn’t stop by the salami slicing, as footage show China is reclaiming land in the disputed Spratly islands, creating artificial islands and building on these islands facilities suspected to be of a military usage59

Statement before the U.S. House Armed Services (Committee), Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces and the House Foreign Affairs (Committee,) Subcommittee on the Asia Pacific on “People’s Republic of China Maritime Disputes” A Statement by Bonnie S. Glaser, Senior Adviser, Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), January 14, 2014) The Australian. "China's maritime power trip." n.d. <http://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/index.html?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&mode= premium&dest=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/chinas-maritime-power-trip/story-e6frg6z61226929168239?nk=6a419df17765070d8830902c4ac33aa2&memtype=anony>. 59 BBC News. "China building 'great wall of sand' in South China Sea." 1 April 2015. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-32126840>. 58

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Airbus Defense and Space imagery shows Chinese activity in Gaven Reefs in the Spratly Islands. China built an artificial island between March and August 2014. (CNES 2014, Distribution Astrium Services / Spot Image S.A / IHS)

Answering questions regarding these activities, the Chinese foreign affairs spokesperson Hua Chunying said "China asserts indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands - the Chinese name of the Spratly islands- and the adjacent waters, and China's activities on relevant islands and reefs of the Nansha Islands fall entirely within China's sovereignty and are totally justifiable.", and when asked whether the nature of these activities is for military or commercial use she added "mainly for the purpose of improving the working and living conditions of people stationed on these islands".60

c) Air Sea Battle: the ASB was a concept designed by the DoD , according to the DoD this concept was not an “operational strategy for a specific region” and the central idea of this strategy was “to develop networked, integrated forces capable of attack-in-depth to disrupt, destroy and defeat adversary forces”61; which put the ASB concept under criticism as a risky strategy for the SCS area62, as the ASB is more of a complete aggressive actions or as a “war plan”, while China follows cautious strategies such as the salami-slicing which result in no causes belli. On Jan. 8 2015 the Pentagon issued a memorandum to develop the ASB and renaming it into Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons (JAM-GC). BBC News. "China says South China Sea land reclamation 'justified'." 10 September 2014. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29139125>. 61 Defence.gov. "Service Collaboration to Address Anti-Access & Area Denial Challenges." May 2013. <http://www.defense.gov/pubs/ASB-ConceptImplementation-Summary-May-2013.pdf>. 62 Etzioni, Amitai. "Air-Sea Battle: A Dangerous Way to Deal with China." 3 September 2013. The Diplomat. <http://thediplomat.com/2013/09/air-sea-battle-a-dangerous-way-to-deal-withchina/?allpages=yes>. 60

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However it is possible that this new strategy will face the same criticisms regarding the SCS area, as a DoD spokesperson told the United States Navy Institute â&#x20AC;&#x153;The missing part of the Air Sea Battle concept was the land portion, basically how the land forces could be used to allow U.S. forces to gain access to a contested area,â&#x20AC;?63.

Hoffman, Michael. "Pentagon Bids Adieu to Air-Sea Battle Name." 21 January 2015. DoD Buzz. <http://www.dodbuzz.com/2015/01/21/pentagon-bids-adieu-to-air-sea-battle-name/>. 63

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Third Topic: Central African Republic I.

Overview .......................................................................................... 54

II.

Country Profile ............................................................................... 54

III.

Insight on CAR History ................................................................. 55

IV.

March 2013 Coup d’état ................................................................ 56

Peacekeeping Missions ................................................................... 58

VI.

Bangui Forum ................................................................................. 59

VII.

Human Rights Conditions.............................................................. 59 a) Children ........................................................................................ b) Refugees: ......................................................................................

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Central African Republic Africa’s Bleeding Heart I.

Overview: Deep in the heart of Africa lies the Central African Republic, it is a landlocked country (i.e: has no coastal lines) as the country is boarded by: Chad to the north, Sudan to the northeast, South Sudan to the east, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of the Congo to the south and Cameroon to the west. Despite being rich with natural resources such as diamond, uranium, timber and gold, Central African Republic is one of the poorest countries in the world; CAR has been unstable since its Independence from France as the country faced lots of coups and decades of blood sheds, conflicts and wars. In 2013, an armed Muslim group seized power over the country and executed numerous incidents of violence resulting in a backlash by an armed Christian group that also responded by violent incidents. With citizens being the major victims of these incidents, CAR occupies the 3rd place in the Fund for Peace 2014 Failed States Index as the latest events escalated into genocides and ethnic cleansing that increased the country’s insatiability and deteriorated human rights conditions, making CAR Africa’s bleeding heart.

II.

Country Profile: Population: Central African Republic has a population of 4.6 million, with 40.6% of the population between the ages of 0-14 years. Religions: indigenous beliefs 35%, Protestant 25%, Roman Catholic 25%, Muslim 15%.

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Language: there are 2 official languages in CAR which are French and Sangho, in addition to some tribal languages. Interim President: Catherine Samba-Panza. Interim Prime Minister: Mahmat Kamoun. Capital: Bangui. Key Exports: Diamonds, timber, cotton, and coffee. Key Imports: Food, textiles, petroleum products, machinery, motor vehicles, and pharmaceuticals Trading Partners: Belgium, China, Netherlands, Cameroon, D.R.Congo, France, and South Korea

III.

Insight on CAR History: The central African republic was part of the French colonies in Africa as in 1894 France created the Ubangi-Shari territory (the present-day CAR), in 1946 the country was given its own representation in the French parliament and Barthelemy Boganda becomes the first central African to be elected in the French parliament, and in 1958 the country achieves self-governance within the French equatorial Africa and Boganda becomes the prime minister.

Independence and Post-Independence Era: After seeking Independence the country finally achieves it in 1960 and David Dacko -Boganda’s nephew- becomes the first president of the country, and in 1964 he is confirmed as a president in elections in which he was the only candidate. In 1965 as the country was facing bankruptcy the army commander Jean-Bedel Bokassa led a coup and overthrew Dacko. At first Bokassa declares himself a president for life but then in 1976 he declares himself emperor and renames the county the “Central African Empire”. After widespread protests in 1979 in which many school children were arrested and massacred. While in detention Dacko -backed by French troops- leads a coup and rises back to power. However he is soon deposed in a coup led by the army commander Andre Kolingba64. In 1992 a multiparty presidential and parliamentary elections took place in which Kolingba came last but these elections were annulled by the Supreme Court and another elections occurred in 1993 in which Ange-Felix Patasse wins to end 12 years of military rule. BBC News. "Central African Republic profile - Timeline ." n.d. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa13150044>. 64

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In 1997 France begins withdrawing its forces from the country and African peacekeepers replace the French troops, in 1999 Patasse is re-elected and the former president Kolingba comes in 2nd place with 19% of votes. In March 2003 the army chief of staff Francois Bozize leads a coup d’etait.Upon seizing the presidency, Bozize suspended the country’s Constitution and dissolved the National Assembly. Though he promised to step down after an initial transitional period to democracy, Bozize was reelected in 2005 and began calling for national unity, development, and democratic freedom. A peace deal known as the Birao Peace Agreement, which was signed in 2007 between the government of the CAR and the rebel group Union des Forces Démocratiques pour le Rassemblement UFDR (Union of Democratic Forces for Unity), appeared to solidify Bozize’s intentions. Further progress was seemingly made with the 2008 Libreville Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which, in addition to the UFDR, also included the rebel groups Armee Populaire pour la Restauration de la Democratie (People’s Army for the Restoration of Democracy – APRD) and the Front democratique du Peuple Centrafricain (Democratic Front for the People of the Central African Republic – FDPC) in its negotiations. Together, these deals promised amnesty; disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) programs for former combatants; and political power-sharing. Yet, the fragility of these peace deals was soon evident. In 2010, the Bozize regime came under fire from opposition leaders who announced their intention to boycott the January 2011 elections in light of institutional changes affecting the voter registration process. When Bozize was reelected in 2011, his victory was shrouded by allegations of election fraud that further threatened the already-declining security situation in the CAR. The Bozize government’s inability to demobilize rebels and ex-soldiers, along side with the foreign involvement of launching a joint offense between CAR troops and neighboring Chad (which sought to weaken a Chadian rebel movement and left thousands of civilians displaced) added to growing instability throughout the country in Feb. 2012.

IV.

March 2013 Coup d’état: In December 2012, a loose rebel coalition named the Seleka initiated a military campaign to overthrow Bozize’s government. The Seleka, mainly composed of factions of armed groups in northeastern CAR, including the UFDR and FDPC, as well as the Convention Patriotique pour le Salut Wa Kodro (CPSK) and the Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace (Convention des Patriotes pour la Justice et la Paix – CPJP), criticized Bozize’s government for failing to implement the DDR program in the northeast, declining to investigate rebel and government crimes that had been occurring since

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2005, and demonstrating a general lack of governance in its region. Capitalizing on the fact that the country had been “virtually ungoverned” outside of the capital, Bangui, for years, the Seleka rapidly captured several strategic towns in early 2013 and was poised to take Bangui next. A hasty intervention by Chad and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) instead persuaded the Seleka to negotiate with Bozize’s government. The result of these negotiations was the Libreville Agreement of January 2013, which established a three-year power-sharing arrangement in the CAR. In addition, it stipulated that Bozize would remain in office until 2016, but that he would not be allowed to run for a third term beyond that. Unfortunately, however, the Libreville Agreement was made between regional heads of state rather than heads of warring parties in the CAR, which, as the Council on Foreign Relations noted, increased the difficulty of implementing real change because it neglected to consider the “intricacies” of the conflict. The government’s failure to carry out agreements under the 2013 Libreville Agreement generated anger and frustration on the part of the Seleka, who resurged and took control of Bangui and 15 of the CAR’s 16 provinces on 24 March 2013, a move which simultaneously caused Bozize to flee to Cameroon. Upon seizing the capital, Seleka leader Michel Djotodia proclaimed himself President and suspended CAR’s constitution. Djotodia’s leadership was immediately criticized at the international level, as his Seleka fighters were accused of having used child soldiers in their successful overthrow of the Bozize government, as well as having engaged in the looting of villages, the raping and killing of civilians, and the abduction of members of the national army. Continued violence on the part of the Seleka even after Djotodia took office raised additional questions about the security situation in the CAR. By August the Séléka-run government under Djotodia was said to be increasingly divided. The conflict worsened towards the end of the year with international warnings of genocide. The fighting was between the government of the Central African Republic's former Séléka coalition of rebel groups, who are mainly from the Muslim minority and the mainly Christian anti-balaka coalition - Anti-balaka are Christian and animist militias formed in the Central African Republic after the rise to power of Michel Djotodia in 2013-. In January 2014 President Djotodia resigned and was replaced by Catherine Samba-Panza, but the conflict continued. As soon as Djotodia left office, Seleka forces began to withdraw from their outposts across the country. In town after town, when the Seleka left, the anti-balaka militia moved in and launched violent attacks against the Muslim minority65. Because international peacekeeping forces were extremely slow to deploy across the country, the Amnesty International. "Q&A: The Central African Republic’s human rights crisis." 9 April 2014. <https://www.amnesty.org/en/articles/news/2014/04/qa-central-african-republic-s-human-rights-crisis/>. 65

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field was open to the anti-balaka to assert their power and authority. They killed many hundreds of Muslim civilians, sometimes in large-scale massacres, looted Muslim homes and shops, and burned and destroyed mosques. Anti-balaka fighters are now the main perpetrators of violence, especially in Bangui and in the western third of the country. Seleka forces that retreated to the north also continue to commit serious human rights abuses in the territory under their control. There is currently no functioning justice system in CAR, with little or no possibility of police investigations, court proceedings, and incarceration, resulting in total impunity for human rights violations.

Peacekeeping Missions: Operation Sangaris: there has been a presence of French troops in CAR before the recent crises - as France had troops deployed in March 2009- and May 2014 French troops took charge of the security of the airport in Bangui, however the situation was deteriorating in CAR, and as a result on December 5th, 2013, the President of France announced his decision to reinforce the French troops in CAR to prevent a humanitarian disaster in the country in what is known as Operation Sangaris, by which France deployed 1,200 troops making the total number of French troops rises to 1,600 which increased since then to about 2,00066. MINUSCA: Despite the presence of the Operation Sangaris and an African Union led troops (MISCA) yet violence and widespread human rights violations continued to happen in CAR. Trying to stop this bloodshed the UN Security Council authorized on the 10th of April 2014 the deployment of a multidimensional United Nations peacekeeping operation (MINUSCA) , and on the 15th of September the MISCA mission transferred its authority over to MINUSCA. The mission has a total of 6,590 military personnel out of authorized 10,000 personnel in addition to civilian personnel.The mission has some initial priority tasks set by the security council67, which are: a) Protection of civilians. b) Support for the implementation of the transition process, including efforts in favor of the extension of State authority and preservation of territorial integrity. c) Facilitate the immediate, full, safe and unhindered delivery of humanitarian assistance. d) Protections of the United Nations. e) Promotion and protection of human rights. f) Support for national and international justice and the rule of law. g) Disarmament, Demobilization, Reintegration (DDR) and Repatriation (DDRR).

France 24. "France votes to extend CAR mission." 25 February 2014. <http://www.france24.com/en/20140225france-central-african-republicc-vote-mission/>. 67 United Nations. "MINUSCA Mandate." n.d. <http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/minusca/mandate.shtml>. 66

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Bangui Forum: From the 4th till the 11th of May 2015 a national reconciliation forum was held in Bangui which adopted a Republican Pact for Peace, National Reconciliation and Reconstruction including, among others, commitments for a swift presidential and legislative electoral process, decentralization and a reinforced judiciary. In addition to a parliamentary elections that are planned to take place in July 2015, the forum commended the signature of an agreement on the principles for disarmament, demobilization and reintegration. Such a move can be considered as a sign of a more stable future of CAR. Nevertheless it might seem slightly fragile as the Security Council condemned the attempt by some armed elements to use violence, including directed against the UN peacekeeping (MINUSCA) in the country, at the closing of the Bangui Forum.

VII.

Human Rights Conditions:

Displaced children and adults shelter outside a barbed-wire fence, in a camp set up behind Mpoko International Airport in Bangui, Central African Republic (CAR). Photo: UNICEF/Pierre Terdjma

â&#x20AC;&#x153;Civilians are being killed by all sides at an alarming rate and people are desperate for protection,â&#x20AC;? said Lewis Mudge, Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch As of April 2015 according to the UN OCHA almost 2.7 million out of the 4.6 million population are in need of humanitarian assistance, 1.4 million unable to receive basic health care &

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medicine, and about 426,000 internally displaced people inside CAR . Thousands of houses have been looted and burnt, leaving many people – Christians and Muslims alike – without a home to return to. The few thousand Muslims who remain in the capital and the western part of the country (where they used to represent about 15 percent of the population) are nearly all displaced. Many are taking refuge in churches, and most are waiting for evacuation, fearing attacks by Anti-balaka fighters.

a) Children: In the 17th of December, the UNICEF warned that 2 out 5 children urgently needing humanitarian and vital aid are without it68, and by April 2015 about 22,700 children suffering from severe acute malnutrition and about 32,348 are expected to in 2015, whilst about 47,000 children suffering moderate acute malnutrition and about 78,335 are expected to in 201569. Since the beginning of the clashes both groups used child soldiers, some forced to join and others volunteer out of poverty or the desire to avenge the deaths of beloved ones. The number of child soldiers increased from 2,500 at the beginning of the crisis to an estimation of 6,000-10,000 on Dec. 2014 with some of them as young as eight years old70, this figure includes children serving as combatants, others who are being used for sexual purposes, and those working as cooks, messengers and in other roles.

In May 14th, 2015 a UNICEF agreement resulted in the release of 357 child soldiers by the Antibalaka and the Séléka groups, the agreement signed during the Bangui forum commits the groups UNICEF. "Central African Republic: Two out of five children without vital aid." 17 December 2014. <http://www.unicef.org/media/media_78130.html>. 68

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/OCHA%20CAR%20Situation%20Report%20No%2055.pdf

Reuters. "Armed groups recruit 10,000 child soldiers in Central African Republic: NGO." 18 December 2014. <http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/18/us-centralafrica-children-fighters-idUSKBN0JW1PR20141218>. 70

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to ending the recruitment of child soldiers and gives UNICEF and its partners immediate and unrestricted access to the areas under the groupsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; control in order to identify and verify the number of affected children and to secure their release.

b) Refugees: Since the beginning of the clashes more the one million people -quarter of the population- fled their homes escaping from violence and seeking safety.71 Recent months have witnessed massive ethnic cleansing: a forced exodus of tens of thousands of Muslim civilians to Chad, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Republic of Congo -in order of concentration of refugees-. Much of this newly-created refugee population is living in makeshift camps where conditions are dire. Those who have fled are often traumatized, malnourished and dehydrated. Many of the 460,000 refugees have walked for weeks and taken refuge in the bush along the way to hide from armed groups. Some have been exposed to atrocities and survived violence. The majority are women and children, as the men in the families often remain in CAR to protect family assets. Many people fleeing CAR have serious medical needs stemming from injuries during attacks or displacement.

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. "Central African Republic Crisis and its Regional Humanitarian Impact: An overview of needs and requirements." 20 June 2014. <http://reliefweb.int/report/centralafrican-republic/central-african-republic-crisis-and-its-regional-humanitarian-impact>. 71

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Committee on Finance

Congressional Research Service Prepared By: Chairman Mohamed Samy El- Abrak

Vice-Chairlady Dalila Yasser

Ranking Member Yasmine Shaker

Party Consultant Assem Abdelwahab

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Jurisdiction The U.S. Senate Committee on Finance is one of the original committees in the Senate, and was first established on December 11, 1815. The Committee concerns itself with matters relating to taxation and other revenue measures and those relating to the insular possessions; bonded debt of the United States; customs, collection districts, and ports of entry and delivery; health programs under the Social Security Act and health programs financed by a specific tax or trust fund; national social security; reciprocal trade agreements; tariff and import quotas; and the transportation of dutiable goods. In addition the Committee has extensive oversight powers. It has authority to investigate, review and evaluate existing laws, and the agencies that implement them. Due to its wide authority, it is considered to be one of the most powerful committees in Congress.

Subcommittees: 1- Subcommittee on Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure 2- Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth 3- Subcommittee on Health Care 4- Subcommittee on International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness 5- Subcommittee on Social Security, Pensions and Family Policy 6- Subcommittee on Taxation and IRS Oversight

Chairmanship: Chairman

Ranking Member

Sen. Orin Hatch (Republican â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Utah)

Sen. Ron Wyden (Democrat â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Oregon)

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First Topic: Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) I.

Introduction..................................................................................... 65

II.

Initiation .......................................................................................... 65

III.

Modes of Servicesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Delivery ........................................................... 66

IV.

Why Services? ................................................................................. 67

National and Economic Impact ..................................................... 70 a) Past Failures ............................................................................... b) Secrecy ....................................................................................... c) Provisions ................................................................................... i. Standstill .......................................................................... ii. Right of establishment ..................................................... iii. National treatment............................................................ iv. Data Localization ............................................................. d) Economic Impact........................................................................

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Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) I.

Introduction The Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) is a trade agreement initiated by 23 members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) including the United States, and EU. These countries all together account for 70% of world trade in services. The formal talks, concerning the framework of the agreement, started formally in March 2013, with participants agreeing on a basic form for the agreement in September 2013. By the end of 2013, most participants had indicated which of their services markets they were prepared to open and to what degree.

Despite the wide range of countries involved in the agreement still 4 countries from the emerging economies, known as BRICS, are absent countries from TISA negotiations. Theyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re Brazil, Russia, India and China. Yet, China and Uruguay have expressed interest in joining the negotiations but so far are not included.

II.

Initiation 72 Services were included early years ago in trade negotiations, named as Uruguay round, leading to the 1995 General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS)73. Due to the restricted coverage of GATS as well as the growing economic importance of the services sector, one aim of the Doha Round, launched in November 2001, was to address liberalization of trade in services.

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In 2004, WTO member states decided to focus negotiations on the most promising fields, including services. However, the Doha Round failed to reach even a final deal.74 As a result, countries had to restore to regional or bilateral free trade agreements to liberalize their trade in services. In October 2012, the EU, Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Hong Kong, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Singapore (later left the group), South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan and the United States (known collectively as the "really good friends of services" – RGFS), declared their will to negotiate a plurilateral Trade in Services Agreement (TISA). The negotiations held the same name as the group; once it became clear that the parties would seek negotiating approval from their respective governments the name was changed to the International Services Agreement (“ISA”), and then renamed again the “Trade in Services Agreement” in 2013. TISA aims at opening up markets and improving rules in areas such as licensing, financial services, telecoms, e-commerce, maritime transport, and professionals moving abroad temporarily to provide services.

III.

Modes of Services’ Delivery 75 Because of the basic characteristics of services including their intangibility and their ability to be transferred via different formats, such as electronically and direct provider to consumer contact, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has adopted a system of classifying four modes of delivery for services. These four modes of delivery have been used to classify data to measure trade in services and to classify government measures that affect trade in services in international agreements. 

  

Mode 1 (cross boarder supply): the service is supplied from one country to another. The supplier and the client remain in their respective countries, while the service crosses the border. Example: A U.S. architectural firm is hired by a client in Mexico to design a building. The U.S. firm does the design in its home country and sends the blueprints to its client in Mexico. Mode 2 (consumption abroad): The consumer physically travels to another country to obtain the service. Example: A Mexican client travels to the United States to attend training on architecture and stays in a U.S. hotel. Mode 3 (commercial presence): The supply of a service by a firm in one country via its branch, agency, or wholly owned subsidiary located in another country. Example: A U.S construction firm establishes a subsidiary in Mexico to sell services to local clients. Mode 4 (temporary presence of natural persons): individual suppliers travel temporarily to another country to supply services. Example: a U.S. computer programmer travels to Mexico to provide training to an employee.

"The Trade In Services Agreement (TISA)." n.d. Coalition of Services Industries. <http://servicescoalition.org/negotiations/trade-in-services-agreement>. 74

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Identifying the various modes of delivery of services is important for measuring the volume of services trade. ie. Each mode requires a different method of measurement, and the data derived from these measurements are not likely to be compatible across the four modes, that is, one cannot combine the data on services traded via Mode 1 with data derived from services traded via Mode 3 in order to obtain a total. Identifying the modes is also important for policy purposes because issues raised by trade in Mode 1 can be different from issues raised by trade in another mode. For example, the trade barriers faced by providers in Mode1 are not necessarily the same as those faced by providers in Mode 4. Therefore, knowing the different modes helps to frame policy issues and solutions. IV.

Why Services? 76 The term â&#x20AC;&#x153;servicesâ&#x20AC;? refers to a wide expandable range of economic activities, such as construction, retail and wholesale sales, e-commerce, financial services, professional services (such as accounting and legal services), transportation, tourism, and telecommunications. The services sector is the world's largest employer, 70 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) is produced by the services sector.

7676

"U.S. Foreign Trade in Services: Trends and U.S. Policy Challenges." 15 May 2014. Congressional Research Service. <http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43291.pdf>. "Trade in Services Agreement." n.d. U.S. Chamber of Commerce. <https://www.uschamber.com/issue-brief/tradeservices-agreement>. "The Trade In Services Agreement (TISA)." n.d. Coalition of Services Industries. <http://servicescoalition.org/negotiations/trade-in-services-agreement>. "The Trade in Services Agreement ('TiSA')." n.d. European Commission. <http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2013/june/tradoc_151374.pdf>.

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U.S. Cross-Border Trade in Goods and Services, 1986-2013 (Billions of Dollars) Balances

Imports

Exports

Services

Goods

Services

Goods

Services

Goods

Year

5.3

-145.1

80.1

368.4

85.4

223.3

1986

44.5

-74.1

118.5

491.0

163.0

416.9

1991

86.9

-191.2

150.8

803.3

237.7

612.1

1996

91.9

-196.7

166.9

876.4

258.8

679.7

1997

82.7

-247.0

181.0

917.2

263.7

670.2

1998

83.6

-345.4

189.2

1030.0

272.8

684.6

1999

76.5

-452.2

217.0

1,224.4

293.5

772.2

2000

119.1

-819.4

378.1

1,967.9

497.2

1,148.5

2007

131.8

-1,100.1

403.4

2,137.6

535.2

1,037.5

2008

126.6

-505.8

382.6

1,575.5

509.2

1,069.7

2009

150.4

-645.1

403.2

1,934.0

553.6

1,288.9

2010

178.6

-738.4

427.4

2,235.8

606.0

1,497.4

2011

206.8

-741.5

442.5

2,302.7

649.3

1,561.2

2012

229.0

-703.9

452.7

2,293.6

681.7

1589.7

2013

In the United States, services generate more than 75 percent of the national economic output and provide 80 percent of private sector jobs. The United States maintains a surplus of services trade on a consistent rate; currently the surplus is over $200 billion. According to the U.S. Office of the Trade Representative, if U.S. business services achieved the same export potential as U.S. manufactured goods, then U.S. exports as a whole could increase by $800 billion. Regarding cross-border trade, in 2013, services accounted for 30.0% of total U.S. exports (of goods and services) and 16.5% of total U.S. imports (of goods and services). The United States has continually realized surpluses in services trade, which have partially offset large trade deficits in goods trade in the U.S. current account. The United States is a major power in world trade in services. According to the WTO, if the EU countries are treated separately, the United States was the largest single-country exporter (14.1%) and importer (9.9%) of global commercial services in 2012. The United States was the second largest exporter (18.3%) and second largest importer (12.7%) in 2012, if the EU is treated as a single entity and intra-EU trade in services is excluded.

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Top Ten Country Exporters and Importers of Services in 2012 (EU Members treated separately) Share of World Imports of Services

Country

Share of World Exports of Services 14.1%

Country

9.9%

United States

6.9%

Germany

6.4%

United Kingdom

6.8%

China

5.9%

Germany

4.3%

United Kingdom

4.8%

France

4.2%

Japan

4.4%

China

4.2%

France

3.4%

India

3.0%

India

3.2%

Japan

2.8%

Singapore

3.2%

Spain

2.8%

Netherlands

3.1%

Singapore

2.8%

Ireland

2.9%

Netherlands

Top Ten Exporters and Importers of Services in 2012 (EU-27 treated as a single entity) Share of World Imports of Services

Country

Share of World Exports of Services

Country

20.0%

EU27

24.6%

EU27

12.7%

United States

18.3%

United States

8.8%

China

5.7%

China

5.4%

Japan

4.4%

India

3.9%

India

4.2%

Japan

3.7%

Singapore

4.0%

Singapore

3.3%

Canada

3.8%

Hong Kong

3.3%

South Korea

3.3%

South Korea

3.2%

Russia

2.6%

Switzerland

2.4%

Brazil

2.6%

Canada

Services employ about 96 million of Americaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 114 million private sector workers. The United States is home to thousands of highly competitive services companies in such sectors as finance; insurance; energy services; transportation, logistics, and expresses delivery services; information technology services; and telecommunications. Contrary to common misconception, many jobs in services pay well. Approximately 18 million Americans are employed in business services such as software, architectural services, engineering and project management services, and insuranceâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;all of which generate billions of dollars in exports. Wages in these sectors are 20% higher on average than those in manufacturing, which employs about 12 million Americans. Services are a clear strength for the

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United States, which is by far the world’s largest exporter of services. U.S. services exports reached $632 billion in 2012, and the U.S. services trade surplus reached $195 billion.77

National and Economic Impact The Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) is believed to be the most promising opportunity to alter the economy in decades, though experts are having fiery debates about whether TISA will improve the economy, or would it have disastrous consequences on the service sector. The controversial trade agreement, promoted by the United States, Australia and European Union is having a wide range of responses, between proponents and opposition, the globe awaits to see the inevitable consequences of the huge trade agreement, which will regulate international activities in a vast range of service sector such as finance, telecommunications, transportation, as well as local utilities such as electricity and water.

a) Past Failures TISA is promoted by the very same governments and entities who installed the failed trade deregulations model leading to the global financial crisis in 2007. As a result of financial deregulations carried out by some of the GATS’ clauses, mainly mortgage lending and loans became more and more affordable to citizens with poor credit history that were already struggling to pay them. Analysts claim that TISA is yet another move to privatize service sector out of public control into the private corporations’ hand, enabling them to have monopoly over vital services like health care, education, thus violating the concept of public service with the sole purpose of benefiting citizens, not making revenues.78 "This agreement is all about making it easier for corporations to make profits and operate with impunity across borders," said Public Service International General Secretary Rosa Pavanelli. "The aim of public services should not be to make profits for large multinational corporations. Ensuring that failed privatizations can never be reversed is free-market ideology gone mad."

b) Secrecy TISA is currently being surrounded with an unprecedented level of secrecy, more than the controversial Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), restrictions on TISA drafts dictates documents must be protected from unauthorized disclosure throughout the whole negotiations process, not only from public outreach but from United States Congress members, even upon voting on TISA, they’ll only go through yes/no vote, there is no chance for debates or amendments, considering public, the draft is only allowed to declassify after 5 years of TISA’s enactment or – in case of no agreement enters to force- the end of negotiations, people wonder what can

Sauvé, P. and A. Shingal (2011), “Reflections on the Preferential Liberalization of Services Trade”

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possibly justifies the secrecy of such vital trade agreement, experts argue that it’s a tool designed to prevent the governments from being held accountable by their legislatures and citizens.

c) Provisions Because of the fundamental differences between goods and services, the impediments that service providers face are often different from those faced by goods suppliers. Restrictions on services trade occur largely within the borders of the importing country. Some of these restrictions are in the form of government regulations. The right of governments to regulate some service industries is widely recognized as necessary to protect consumers from harmful or unqualified providers. For example, doctors and other medical personnel must be licensed by government-appointed boards; lawyers, financial services providers, and many other professional service providers must be also certified in some manner. In addition, governments apply prudential capital requirements on banks to ensure their solvency. The question in foreign trade is whether these regulations are applied in a discriminatory and unnecessarily trade restrictive manner to foreign services providers. In many cases the barriers are government regulations or rules that are legal and legitimate but may intentionally or unintentionally discriminate against foreign providers and impede trade. Examples of such barriers:  

Restrictions on the movement of personnel, including visa and work permit. Requirements that foreign professionals pass certification exams or obtain extra training that is not required for local nationals.  Mandatory hiring of local labor.  Restrictions on information transfer imposed to protect data and maintain privacy which is known as (data localization)  “Buy national” requirements in government procurement.  Lack of national treatment in taxation policy or protection from double taxation.  Government-owned monopoly service providers and requirements that Foreign Service providers use a monopoly’s network access or communications connection providers.  Government subsidization of domestic service suppliers.  Limitations on foreign direct investment, such as: equity ceiling, or requirements that the chief executive officer or other high-level company officials be local nationals or that a certain proportion of a company’s directors be local nationals. Because of these regulations to trade, TISA was put into consideration and negotiations on its provisions started. But the mysterious thing about TISA is that its terms are kept secret during negotiations and until 5 years after it comes into force. This level of secrecy worried the general public and raised many questions. Secrecy during the negotiation of a binding and enforceable commercial treaty is objectionable and undemocratic, and invites poorly informed and biased decisions. Secrecy after the fact is designed to prevent the governments from being held accountable by their legislatures and citizens. On the 19th of June 2014, secret draft text of the trade in services agreement was leaked. The most important and controversial points of these leaks are: 71

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Standstill79

It’s considered as one of the most debatable clauses in the leaked financial-annex. It states that governments must bind their existing levels of liberalization for foreign direct investment on financial services, cross-border provision of financial services and transfers of personnel. For instance, if a country that’s a TiSA member wanted to restrict trade in a certain kind of services it would be handcuffed, for it can’t impose new restrictive provisions. So in a way, TISA prevents governments control their service sector and return it back to public hands if privatization has failed. Also, in the case of a new financial crisis, it would prohibit regulating the service sector, making countries unable to combat any financial distress under TISA’s enactment period. The current rules will be the most restrictive of financial services that a government would be allowed to use. They would be encouraged to bind in new liberalization beyond their status quo. The aim is to secure more extensive levels of commitments than exist in the GATS, or were promised in the Doha round, or even exist in most FTAs. A TISA party could be sued if it sought to tighten financial rules that were put in place during the last three decades. However some countries offered some amendments to this clause, where Australia wants to keep more flexibility, with the standstill to apply from the date TISA comes into force. That would allow governments to adopt new regulations before that date, thereby securing them more regulatory space than they have now. It also expressly allows for the rollover of such measures.

ii.

Right of establishment

The second key provision is the right of establishment, “Each Party shall grant financial service suppliers of any other Party the right to establish or expand within its territory, including through the acquisition of existing enterprises . . . a commercial presence” (X.7). Under this provision, Foreign Service providers can operate in any country participating in TISA because they are granted almost automatic entry. They do not need to wait for government’s authorization with respect to existing service providers and how might that affect existing competition and the overall impact on a particular sector. Also they are allowed to grow and expand their companies with minimal restrictions.

iii.

National treatment

The third provision is Non-Discriminatory Measures “Each Party shall endeavor to remove or to limit any significant adverse effects on financial service suppliers of any other Party of . . . measures that, although respecting the provisions of the Agreement, affect adversely the ability of financial service suppliers of any other Party to operate, complete or enter the Party’s market” (X.5, emphasis added).80

"Analysis Article - Secret Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) - Financial Services Annex." 19 June 2014. WikiLeaks. <https://wikileaks.org/tisa-financial/analysis.html>. "The Trade in Services Agreement ('TiSA')." n.d. European Commision. <http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2013/june/tradoc_151374.pdf>. "The Trade In Services Agreement (TISA)." n.d. Coalition of Services Industries. <http://servicescoalition.org/negotiations/trade-in-services-agreement>. 80 Schott, J. and J. Muir (2012), “Prospects for Services Trade Negotiations”, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics. World Trade Organization (2013). "Analysis Article - Secret Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) - Financial Services Annex." 19 June 2014. WikiLeaks. <https://wikileaks.org/tisa-financial/analysis.html>. 72

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This provision prohibit certain measures done by a country towards services sector, even though it’s applied on both national and foreign service providers, but under this provision foreign service suppliers will have the right to petition decisions made by governments if it affects them in any way they may find hazardous to them. Experts claim that this provision will grant more rights to Foreign Service providers than national ones, making the corporations more influential and involved in policy making decisions relating to TISA. However, many members of the U.S. business community, such as service providers and related industries and lobbies like the US chamber of commerce, strongly support the formation of a TISA. This group views TISA as an opportunity to strengthen multi-party rules on trade in services beyond what are agreed on in GATS which are largely considered to be pretty weak.

iv.

Data Localization

The entire services lobby wants to stop governments from requiring data to be processed and stored locally claiming that the right to hold data offshore is especially important for the finance industry because finance is data. By applying this, countries will have no right to protect personal privacy and data because when data is held offshore it becomes almost impossible for states to control data usage and impose legal liability.

d) Economic Impact Being the largest single country exporter and importer of services with $681 billion exports and a surplus of $231 billion, United States is massively dependent on services, with 75% of the American workforce in service sector; analysts predict that TISA will have healthy impact on the economy. A study by a leading economist found that only 3 percent of services firms export, as compared to a 25% of manufacturers this huge lagging of service export is thought to be due to the constraining foreign barriers like data transfer across borders and unfair competition from stateowned enterprises, TISA is expected to have a huge stimulating effect on the economy as the international market access becomes easier to the United States, an estimated 3 million jobs could be created if U.S. services export rate caught up with that of the manufacturers, many think that TISA is the only way to unlock the United States service export full potential abroad.81

Sauvé, P. and A. Shingal (2011), “Reflections on the Preferential Liberalization of Services Trade”

"Analysis Article - Secret Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) - Financial Services Annex." 19 June 2014. WikiLeaks. <https://wikileaks.org/tisa-financial/analysis.html>.

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Liberalization of services is proved to lead to lower prices, better quality and wider choice for consumers as a result of fierce competition between various suppliers, these benefits is expected to spread through the economic system and affect other product or service suppliers. Liberalization of trade is believed to be a major key aspect in improving standards, causing a spur in innovation, the most remarkable example is electronic commerce; comparing prices of computers today to five years ago makes it clear that intense competition to create the latest personal computer at the lowest cost produced lower prices for products. Not to mention that many of the signing countries in TISA are developing countries in need for advanced service supply and infrastructure; opening huge market for US service sector exports and millions of American jobs. This statistic shows the employment in the manufacturing sector and service sector in the United States since the initiation of General Agreement on Trade and Services (GATT) in 1949. Needles to say, it is evident that some of the trade barriers removed by the GATT and GATS were the main reason for the indoor employment to skyrocket by 500% in the last 50 years, corresponding to minimal increase in the manufacturing sector, Experts predict more growth as more trade barriers will be tackled by TISA. 82

Schott, J. and J. Muir (2012), â&#x20AC;&#x153;Prospects for Services Trade Negotiationsâ&#x20AC;?, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics. World Trade Organization (2013). 82

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Second Topic: Welfare Checks I.

Historical Background ................................................................... 76 a) b) c) d) e)

II.

The Culture of Social Welfare and Community .................... The Beginning of Social Welfare 1785 ................................. Evolution of Social Welfare into Legislation......................... Impacts of the great depression on the social welfare ........... Development of Social Welfare .............................................

Medicare and Medicaid.................................................................. 78 a) Medicare ................................................................................. b) Medicaid ................................................................................. c) The Old-age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) ..

III.

Privatization of Social Security ..................................................... 88 a) b) c) d)

IV.

Overview ................................................................................ Ideological perception ............................................................ Benefit payments and savings ................................................ Current pension payments ......................................................

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families................................... 90 a) Assistance ............................................................................... b) Eligibility Requirements for TANF ....................................... c) Consequences of TANFâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Adoption ......................................

Impacts of welfare programs ......................................................... 93 a) Social Impact .......................................................................... b) Economic impact ....................................................................

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Welfare Checks I.

Historical Background: a) The Culture of Social Welfare and Community From the earliest colonial times, local towns and villages were helping the needy when family effort and assistance provided by neighbors and friends were not enough. So even before the programs of social welfare were implemented, the welfare culture existed between the citizens. The first clear governmental role for the provision of aid to those in need was typically associated with the Elizabethan poor law of 1601 which was imported from England. The poor law was implemented by the British colonies in the United States. This law provided aid to two types of poor people, those who were not able to work because of age or physical disabilities and those who were physically able to work but unemployed. The former type was granted cash while the latter received public service employment.

b) The Beginning of Social Welfare 1785 After the American revolutionary war (1775-1783), the government wanted to give aids to veterans from the tax revenue levied on the foreign ships and vessels during trading in the form of tonnage tax, which is a tax rate levied on the merchandises on the ships per ton. That was the first step towards the social welfare that was implemented by the U.S government after the independence.

c) Evolution of Social Welfare into Legislation New programs of social welfare started to exist that cover a lot of aspects of the social life of the US citizens. In the US, as in many other industrial countries, social insurance first began with compensation of workers. A federal law covering civilian employees of the government in hazardous jobs was adopted in 1908. These laws made industry responsible for compensating the workers or their survivors in case of injury or death during performing his or her job. In 1920 the civil service retirement system was set up for federal employees. Another area that the federal government has implemented is the provisions for services and benefits for veterans. These benefits are in the form of compensation for war disabled, widows' pension, and land grants. Later after the First World War, provisions were made for a complete system of hospital and medical care benefits. 83

"Origins of the State and Federal Public Welfare Programs (1932 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 1935)." n.d. Social Welfare History Project. <http://www.socialwelfarehistory.com/programs/origins-of-the-state-federal-public-welfare-programs/>. 83

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d) Impacts of the great depression on the social welfare The severe depression of the 1930 affected the social welfare badly, as neither the states nor the charities had sufficient financial resources to cope with the growing needs of the American people. The increase in the unemployment rate has reached one quarter of the American labor. Statistics however can only partially give an account of the extraordinary hardships that millions of United States citizens endured. For nearly every unemployed person, there were dependents that were in need to be fed and housed. Such massive poverty and hunger had never been known in the United States before. Not to mention the lost savings of thousands of the American families. Actions from the federal government became necessary. The federal government first made loans then grants to the states in order to help them face the great depression. In 1935, president Franklin Roosevelt Proposed to congress economic security legislation embodying the recommendations of a specially created committee on Economic Security, that was the start of the social security at signed into law August 14, 1935.

e) Development of Social Welfare The Social Security Act was the actual beginning of the social welfare in the United States. The act first established two social insurance programs on a national scale to help meet the most dangerous risks that time which was unemployment and old age risks. The great depression made old age and unemployment the most two dangerous risks, as the depression had wiped out much of the life time savings of the aged and reduced opportunities for gainful employment. As a result a federal system of benefits for old age retired employees who had been working in industry or commerce, and a federal system for unemployment insurance were created. The act also provided federal grants in the form of aid to the states on order to finance programs like old age assistance, and aid to the blind. The interference of the federal government was to encourage the states to implement such programs. The law established other grants to state in order to extend and strengthen child health and these grants became the Aid to Families with Dependent Children which has been replaced in 1996 with the Temporary Assistant for Needy Families (TANF). After that period there was a great changes and improvements to these programs and other programs was established such as Food Stamp program in 1964 and School Breakfast program in 1966. Three of the most important programs that were established are: ď&#x201A;ˇ ď&#x201A;ˇ ď&#x201A;ˇ

84"The

Old aged, Survivors and Disability Insurance program (OASDI), which is the original social security program of 1935; Medicare and Medicaid programs in 1995 Temporary Assistance for Needy Families 84

History of Welfare." n.d. US Welfare System - Help for US Citizens. <http://www.welfareinfo.org/history/>

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Medicare and Medicaid Medicare and Medicaid are two social welfare programs that provide health insurance and health related services to eligible people. There are two different programs. However, both of them are managed by the same entity which is the centers of Medicare and Medicaid services. Both the Medicare and Medicaid programs were created in 1965 when President Lyndon Johnson signed amendments on the social security act.

a) Medicare i.

Historical glimpse

The importance of the health care issue has continued to increase since the beginning of the century in the US. From the 1930s on, there was a broad agreement on the need of some form of health insurance to help the Americans to cover their unpredictable medical costs. The main health care issue at that time was whether health insurance should be publicly or privately financed. During the Second World War the private health insurance coverage expanded widely. This trend remained after the war. Middle income people were the ones who needed this type of insurance the most. Yet people with low income couldn't afford private health insurance coverage, so the government intervention was a necessity. Several health insurance plans were introduced to the congress starting in the 1940s, but none were ever brought to voting. After various considerations and approaches followed by long heated debate, congress passed legislation in 1965 that established the Medicare program as a title of the Social Security Act.

ii.

Overview

Medicare is a health insurance program for:  People age 65 or more  People under age 65 with certain disabilities,  And people of all ages with end stage renal disease 85 Medicare has: 

Part (A) Hospital Insurance: Helps cover inpatient care in hospitals, including critical access hospitals, and skilled nursing facilities. It also helps cover hospice care and some home health care. Beneficiaries must meet certain conditions to get these benefits. Most Americans do not pay insurance premiums for part (A) as it is already deducted in the form of payroll taxes while working.  Part (B) Medical Insurance: Helps cover doctors' services and outpatient care. It also covers some other medical services that Part A doesn't cover, such as some of the services of physical and occupational therapists, and some home health care. Part B helps pay for these covered services and supplies when they are medically necessary. Most Americans pay monthly premiums for part (B). Part (A) and part (B) are provided by the public sector. 85

"What’s Medicare?" n.d. Medicare.gov. <https://www.medicare.gov/Pubs/pdf/11306.pdf>.

"What is Medicare / Medicaid?" n.d. Medical News Today. <http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/info/medicare-medicaid/>.

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In 2006, Medicare expanded to include a prescription drug coverage plans which are provided the private sector. ď&#x201A;ˇ

Prescription drug coverage with Medicare can get this coverage that may help lower prescription drug costs and help protect against higher costs in the future. ď&#x201A;ˇ Medicare Prescription Drug Coverage is insurance. Private other insurance. Companies provide the coverage. Beneficiaries choose the drug plan and pay a monthly premium. Like In 1995, more than 37 million persons were enrolled for part (A), and 36 million persons for part (B). Benefit payments for 1995 totaled 184.2 billion dollars. In 2013, total beneficiaries from part (A) and part (B) more than 52 million persons. Medicare benefit payments totaled 583 billion dollars in 2013.86

The Medicare spending per enrollee grew at an annual average rate of 7.7% between 1969 and 2012.

"Whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Medicare?" n.d. Medicare.gov. <https://www.medicare.gov/Pubs/pdf/11306.pdf>.

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Sources of Finance

Medicare is funded primarily from three sources: general revenues (41%), payroll tax 87 contributions (38%), and beneficiary premiums (13%)

b) Medicaid i.

Historical glimpse

Medicaid was establishment as part of the Social Security amendment of 1965 to provide medical and health related services to low income people through direct payment to suppliers of the program. Medicaid is the largest source of fund for health care and related services to the US poorest people.

ii.

Overview

Medicaid is a cooperative program between each state and the federal government to provide health medical and health related services to people with very low income, and is financed by shared state and federal funds. Medicaid may also cover services that are not covered by Medicare. Each state has its own eligibility requirements; determine the type, amount, duration, and scope of services; sets the rate of payment for services; and administer its own program. There are certain groups that the federal government considers them as categorically needy, and must be eligible to Medicaid include:    

65 or older A child under 19 Pregnant Living with disability

"The Facts on Medicare Spending and Financing." 28 July 2014. The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. <http://kff.org/medicare/fact-sheet/medicare-spending-and-financing-fact-sheet/>. 87

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 A parent or adult caring for a child Under the federal law, states must cover the following services for people who qualify for Medicaid, subject to medical necessity:  Inpatient and outpatient hospital services;  early and periodic screening, diagnosis, and treatment (EPSDT) for children up to age 21;  physician, and nurse practitioner services;  laboratory and x-ray services;  family planning services and supplies;  nursing facility (NF) services for individuals age 21+  home health services for individuals entitled to NF care  non-emergency transportation to medical care88 Many states cover services that federal law designated as optional because each state has its own standards. Therefore Medicaid eligibility requirements are complex and vary from state to state, and within each state throughout different times.89

In 1995, more than 36 persons received Medicaid services; total spending amounted to 159.5 billion dollars, out of which 85.5 million dollars in federal and 66.3 billon dollars in state funds. In 1995, total Medicaid payment $3,311 per recipient.

"What is Medicare / Medicaid?" n.d. Medical News Today. <http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/info/medicare-medicaid/>. "What’s Medicare?" n.d. Medicare.gov. <https://www.medicare.gov/Pubs/pdf/11306.pdf>. 89 "What is Medicare / Medicaid?" n.d. Medical News Today. <http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/info/medicare-medicaid/>. "What’s Medicare?" n.d. Medicare.gov. <https://www.medicare.gov/Pubs/pdf/11306.pdf>. 88

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In 2008 more than 52 million persons were enrolled in Medicaid. In fiscal year 2010 total enrollees amounted to 66.4 million persons, and total expenditures amounted to $369.3 million.

Nearly two thirds of Medicaid spending for services is attributable to the elderly and persons with disabilities, who form just one quarter of all Medicaid enrollees.

iii.

Sources of Finance

States and Federal government share the cost of Medicaid. The Federal government matches state Medicaid spending for beneficiaries eligible for Medicaid at least dollar for dollar, according to a formula contained in a federal statute. The federal match rate, known as the federal medical assistance percentage, or FMAP, varies according to state per capita income.

iv.

Economic Impact

Health spending per capita in the United States is much higher than in other countries, at least $2,500 higher than Norway, the next largest per capita spender. In addition to higher spending, the United States has also the highest growth rate in the total health spending per capita.90

Total Health Expenditure per Capita, U.S. and Selected Countries, 2008 Another way to look at relative health spending is to look at how much a country spends on the health care as a percentage of its national income. Economists often use a country's total "The Facts on Medicare Spending and Financing." 28 July 2014. The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. <http://kff.org/medicare/fact-sheet/medicare-spending-and-financing-fact-sheet/>. 90

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production, or its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as a measurement of its national income. In 2008 health expenditure in the United States amounted to 16% of GDP, which make the U.S. stands in the first rank in the analysis.

Total Health Expenditure as a Share of GDP, U.S. and Selected Countries, 200891 This great spending on the health care programs specially the Medicaid and Medicare affects the country's economy by a way or another. It limits the ability of the federal government to spend money on other fields, or solve other problems like the energy problem, or developing products that can be sold to other countries, or even creating technology that can bring medical breakthroughs, and more other areas of investment. Also the costs of the health programs have skyrocketed, making it harder for the citizens to afford them. From 1999 to 2008, annual health insurance premiums jumped 119 percent, according to Kaiser Data. The average family premiums made by workers rose from $1,543 to $3,354 a year and employer payment per worker jumped from $4,247 to $9,325. During that span, the earnings of the workers rose only 34 percent and the overall inflation rose 29 percent. So worker income has barely kept pace with inflation, and more portion of the worker income will be shifted to the health care to afford its increasing costs, which make less amount of money remain for saving or for spending. That represents a huge drag on the economic growth, considering that consumer spending powers about 70% of the economy. As one of the biggest sectors in the United States, the health care sector contributes a lot to the employment. About 427,000 jobs were created thanks to the healthcare sector since the recession began in December 2007.

"Snapshots: Health Care Spending in the United States & Selected OECD Countries." 12 April 2011. The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. <http://kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/snapshots-health-care-spending-in-the-united-states-selected-oecdcountries/>. 91

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c) The Old-age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) i.

Overview

The old-age, survivors and disability insurance (OASDI), known as social security, is the largest program of income assistance in the United States. The main goal behind constructing this program is to replace the lost income of retired, disabled or dead parents. It all started in 1935 when the congress enacted the social security act, signed by President Franklin Roosevelt, in response to economic and social vulnerabilities spread after the great depression that hit many of world countries, including United States, leading to radical levels of unemployment and job losses ending up with severe poverty around the states. First it covered employees in non-agricultural and commerce sectors only, now nearly all employees are covered such as self-employed individuals, State and local government employees, regularly employed farm and domestic workers, members of the armed services, and members of the clergy and religious orders. These covered working sectors must be within the united states (50 states, District of Columbia, common wealth of Puerto Rico, territories of Guam and American Samoa, Virgin Islands and Northern Mariana Islands). In addition work performed outside the United States is covered, in case of resident aliens who are employed by an American employer, employed by a foreign affiliate as an American employer or self-employed people. The full age of retirement is 66, at which the retiree starts to get a maximum of 2,533 monthly payments.

ii.

Sources of Fund

Benefits paid to covered workers are financed mainly through the “payroll tax” which’s levied on covered employees. The taxes for wage and salaried workers are imposed under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FECA), which’s chapter 21 in internal revenue code. FECA is the law that decides portion of taxes paid from income and stipulates that there is a maximum wage that’s prone to taxation, known as the wage base limit or maximum taxable earnings. Deductions are divided on both the employer and the employee, where each of them pays half the total amount of taxes. The current tax rate for social security is 6.2% for the employer and 6.2% for the employee, or 12.4% total. For earnings in 2014, the wage base limit is $113,700. Collected revenues are deposited in two trust funds: 1) Federal old age and survivors insurance trust fund 2) Federal disability insurance trust fund OASI trust fund was established in 1 January 1940, as a separate account in department of treasury from DI (Disability) trust fund, which was established in 1 august 1956. Both of them pay monthly benefits to beneficiaries and administrative costs of the program procedures. If there’s excess funds it should be invested, by force of law, in interest bearing securities. 92

"SOCIAL SECURITY: THE OLD-AGE, SURVIVORS, AND DISABILITY INSURANCE (OASDI) PROGRAMS." n.d. Government Printing Office (GPO). <http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CPRT112WPRT7/pdf/CPRT-112WPRT7-Section1.pdf>. "OASDI and SSI Program Rates & Limits, 2013." n.d. Socialsecurity.gov. <http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/prog_highlights/RatesLimits2013.html>.

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Disability Insurance (DI)

For a person to be categorized as a disabled, he must be unable to perform a substantial gainful activity (SGA) because of medically mental or physical illness; however this illness should be expected to cause death or last for a period not less than 12 months. Studies show that just over 1 in 4 of today's 20 year-olds will become disabled before reaching age 67. In deciding whether a person’s disability qualify him or her for DI program the person’s age, education and work experience are considered together with his medical impairment. Blind people aged 55 or more are considered disabled if they can’t perform SGA that requires skills and abilities comparable to those required in the past. The amount of money that decides whether a job is SGA is: 1) $1,040 For non-blind beneficiaries in 2013 2) $1,740 For blind beneficiaries in 2013 Beneficiaries getting monthly income payments can go through a trial work in which they test their ability to return back to work. The trial work period can last up to 9 months, during which monthly benefits are non-stoppable. Months in which earnings of trial work, supposedly, below $200 aren’t considered as a trial work period (those months aren’t counted). After trial work period a decision is made whether this person is eligible to join an SGA or not. In case he or she returned back to work, there will be 3 months benefits paid till that person readjusts his financial affairs; if he or she didn’t work payments will continue as the status quo. Agencies responsible for determination of disability are Social security administration (SSA) and Disability determination service (DDS). DDS, a government agency, responsible for collecting medical evidences and making the initial determination on whether or not a claimant is disabled or blind under the law. There’s a consultative examination (CE) done on the claimant to make sure of his disability, provided that the CE maybe the claimant treating source. Also DDS may obtain the CE from an independent source. After completing its development of the evidence, Staff working at the DDS makes the initial disability determination. After DDS completes the process of evidence collection it transfer claimants’ files to the SSA, where it decides what are the benefits to be paid if he met disability requirements. If he’s not qualified the file is kept at the SSA in case he appealed the decision. When a disabled claimant starts receiving disability benefits, certain members of his family also may qualify for benefits on his record. Each family member can apply for a monthly benefit up to 50 percent of claimants’ disability rate without affecting his monthly share of assistance; However, there is a limit to the amount they can pay his family. Benefits can be paid to:     

spouse divorced spouse children disabled child adult child disabled before age 22 93

"2013 Social Security Changes." n.d. Socialsecurity.gov. <http://www.socialsecurity.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2013.htm>. "Disability Planner: Family Benefits." n.d. Socialsecurity.gov. <http://www.ssa.gov/planners/disability/dfamily.html>. 93

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Outlook for Future Social Security Cost

Recent reports done by SSA shows that there’s an ongoing problem with the trust fund, where beneficiary premiums and administrative costs are higher than payroll tax income as a result of the rapid growth of the baby boom generation that reaches retirement age, which broadens the percentage of retiree prone to benefits, and at the same time there’s a slight growth of the baby boom generation that enters work force, which lessens incomes subject to payroll taxes. As a result of both phenomena there’s an OASDI deficit. In 2014, the projected difference between Social Security’s expenditures and dedicated tax income is $80 billion. The following chart shows the excess of cost over premium as a percentage of the GDP, in OASDI and other assistance programs. The expected difference between cost of beneficiaries and revenue from payroll taxes, benefits taxes and premiums is to increase, provided that total benefits should be paid by government regardless the shortage of revenues. That would contribute, to a large extent, to the federal budget deficit, since that by 2040 4.4% of GDP will be required to pay for benefits.

Chart —Projected SMI General Revenue Funding plus OASDI and HI Tax Shortfalls [Percentage of GDP] 94 For most people, Social Security income will be crucial to their retirement security. The program provides at least half of income for almost two-thirds of retirees receiving the federal benefits and 90 percent of income for about one-third. In addition social security plays an important role in alleviating poverty and decreasing its rate across years, and that was obvious in the 1900th.

"A SUMMARY OF THE 2014 ANNUAL REPORTS." n.d. Socialsecurity.gov. <http://www.ssa.gov/oact/TRSUM/index.html>.

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From the previous graph we can observe an inverse relationship between social security expenditure and Poverty rate, where there is more expenditure thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s less poverty rate, especially poverty of elder citizens. If 65 aged people had to rely only on their income other than Social Security, nearly half would be poor. It is noticed that the percentage of women alleviated from poverty in 2012 (38%) is higher than that of men (33%). However, a greater percentage of older women remained in poverty: 11 percent of women compared to 7 percent of men. 95

Waid, Mikki. "Social Security Keeps Americans of All Ages out of Poverty: State-Level Estimates, 2010â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2012." n.d. AARP Public Policy Institute. <http://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/public_policy_institute/econ_sec/2014/social-securitykeeps-americans-out-of-poverty-AARP-ppi-econ-sec.pdf>. 95

"The Role of Benefits in Income and Poverty." n.d. National Academy of Social Insurance. <https://www.nasi.org/learn/socialsecurity/benefits-role>. "Social Security and Elderly Poverty." n.d. The National Bereau of Economic Research. <http://www.nber.org/bah/summer04/w10466.html>.

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In 2012, Social Security kept more than 22 million Americans of all ages out of poverty, more than many other government programs combined. That included keeping about 1 million children under age 18 and almost 6 million people between the ages of 18 and 64 out of poverty. It also had a greater impact on older Americans (age 65 and older), keeping 15 million of them out of poverty. One of the most indicators of the prosperity of any nation’s economy and society is the rate of poverty across its states and countries. Poverty leads to crime and theft because of hunger and lack of assessment, causing a threat on the society. Providing these programs to help alleviate poverty, providing them with job opportunities, trainings and skills development sessions wouldn’t only contribute to poverty decrease but also in development of society and job creation, enhancing employment.96

III.

Privatization of Social Security a) Overview Privatization plans are one of the major selected options for reform in social security or healthcare programs. Its idea is that Instead of contributing to a collective, pay-as-you-go retirement program, workers would be required to collectively reserve retirement savings in individually owned and directed private accounts. These savings would be collected by a single public or semi-public agency and then invested in one or more of a limited number of investment funds. In some privatization plans contributors might be given the option of diversifying their investments, for example they can choose stock market investments, a real estate investment trust, a corporate bond fund, and a U.S. Treasury bond fund. In the previously mentioned case administrative costs are minimized, however investment options are limited. That’s why there is another plan, where private banks, insurance companies and other investment companies compete to attract workers’ savings. Such a strategy is Waid, Mikki. "Social Security Keeps Americans of All Ages out of Poverty: State-Level Estimates, 2010–2012." n.d. AARP Public Policy Institute. <http://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/public_policy_institute/econ_sec/2014/social-securitykeeps-americans-out-of-poverty-AARP-ppi-econ-sec.pdf>. 96

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providing workers with total freedom to choose among the most desired investment, however it’s costly in terms administrative expenditure. Workers could withdraw their funds from the accounts when they became disabled or reach the retirement age, and their heirs could inherit any funds accumulated in the account if the worker died before becoming disabled or reaching the retirement age. At the time a worker chose to start receiving a pension, some or all of the funds in the worker's account would be converted into an annuity that would last until the worker died. If the worker is married, both worker and spouse might be required to accept a joint survivors' annuity, that is, an annuity that would last until both the worker and spouse have died. Under some proposals, workers could choose to withdraw some of the funds as a lump-sum distribution when they become disabled or retire.

b) Ideological perception Social security critics, mainly libertarians, are against any mandatory forms of retirement savings, whether private or not. They believe that workers are grown up enough to plan for their consumption and savings, to plan for their future and to apply these plans on the ground. They think of social security as an unwarranted intrusion in the lives of citizens. Privatization advocates acknowledge that it’s reasonable to oblige workers to save for old age, disability, and early death. In the absence of mandatory saving, many workers would save too little and could become penniless and then they would be forced to rely on public aid when they stop working. Though government rule is to oblige workers to save for their future, but that doesn’t mean that it’s entrusted to choose the way retirements’ savings should be invested. Most privatization advocates believe that these decisions are best left up to workers and their employers.97

c) Benefit payments and savings Many argue that private accounts’ return from investments is more profitable and could bring higher pensions in the future than social security returns. This argument is based on a straightforward

calculation. If workers invested 12.4 percent of their earnings in a private retirement account yielding a moderate rate of return (say, 3 percent a year after adjusting for inflation), most would collect larger pensions than they can expect under the present Social Security system. In addition they also believe that privatization could boost savings, which are invested in wide array of projects, to bring up high returns, and hence increase employment, consumption and boost economic growth. This is totally different from the social security plans that redistribute collected contributions and governmental share of fund among retirees. Despite these benefits critics argue that investments are risky, where some people might have the knowledge enough to choose the most appealing investment plans to share in and others, especially poor workers, might not have enough awareness to choose the best among investment options, and hence their investments choices might fail or bring up few returns that can’t afford them after-retirement dignified life, where basic needs are fulfilled. In addition downturns in the financial market could occur, causing crisis and leading to investment losses. Accordingly they support social security, where contributions are redistributed among retirees, so that poor people could receive pensions enough for their basic needs.

"Privatizing Social Security: The Troubling Trade-Offs." n.d. Brookings.edu. <http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/1997/03/saving-burtless>. 97

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d) Current pension payments Since already existing retirees’ pensions are funded from current workers’ contributions, then abolishment of the current system completely and replacing it with private accounts would crucially affect them, for workers’ contributions will be invested in the private accounts and sources of funding current retirees’ pensions would disappear, so government would bear this burden completely, which’s non-sense especially in the existing condition of budget deficit. So suggested solution is to make partially privatized system, where part of contributions is saved and other part is used in pensions’ payment.98

IV.

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Temporary assistance for needy families began on the 1st of July, 1996. It was initiated by the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act created under President Bill Clinton. TANF replaced Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) which started in 1935 and aimed at giving cashed assistance to families with children. TANF’s initiation was to provide temporary financial assistance to families with dependent children, and also to get the families off of that assistance through employment. TANF was also set to fulfill four main goals under the law of 1996 which are:  Providing assistance so that children may be cared for in their own homes or in the homes of relatives.  Providing such families with time-limited assistance in order to end their dependence on government benefits and achieve self-sufficiency, so that families wouldn’t rely on government pay checks for their lifetime.  Preventing and reducing out-of-wedlock pregnancies, especially teenage ones.  Encouraging the formulation and maintenance of two-parent families. This law gave TANF authorization to be funded through federal fiscal year 2002. After many short-term extensions, TANF was reauthorized by congress for another five years in the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005. TANF has been extended for several times by the congress and was recently reauthorized through 27th of March, 2013.

a) Assistance The term “assistance” includes cash, payments, vouchers, and other forms of benefits designed to meet a family’s ongoing basic needs (i.e. for food, clothing, shelter, utilities, household goods, personal care items, and general identical expenses). It includes such benefits even when they are provided in the form of payments by a TANF agency or other agency on its behalf to individual recipients, and getting that assistance on condition of participation in work experience or community service. The federal government provides a grant to the states which use these funds in return to perform their own programs according to the needs of each state. In order to receive these funds, states are obliged to specify a portion of them to programs of needy families. States have used their "The Benefits and Hazards of Privatizing Social Security." n.d. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. <https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/central-banker/fall-1997/the-benefits-and-hazards-of-privatizing-social-security>. 98

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federal funds for multiple services and supports, including: income assistance, child care, education and job training, transportation, aid to children at risk of abuse and neglect, and other various services to help low income families.99

b) Eligibility Requirements for TANF Although each state has policy choices about criteria such as: benefit levels, how to determine financial need, time limits, etc, there are some restrictions that has to be applied stated by federal law, which are:

States have the free will of deciding their own time limits policies, but they cannot provide cash assistance for longer than 60 month, whether consecutive or not, to a family that includes an adult recipient. However, exceptions can be made based on hardship situations, minor children, or family members that have been battered or subject to extreme cruelty, exceeding the 60 month time limit by up to 20 percent of their caseload.  Benefits can be extended to the children in a family even after the parents reach the time limit. So, if the parents can’t provide self-reliance to their family after the maximum assistance period was reached, children can still receive assistance related to their education and well-being, excluding their parents from such payments.  Legal immigrants are not entitled to receive TANF funds until they have spent at least five years in the United States.  Recipients must engage in work activities, and the States have the right to impose sanctions that vary from each state. TANF assistance is denied in cases of: 

An individual family member is a fugitive felon or a probation or parole violator Unmarried teenage parents with a minor child at least 12 weeks of age in their care, who do not attend high school or other equivalent training program, as one of TANF’s objectives is to encourage legitimate marriages and eliminate illiteracy.

"GENERAL TEMPORARY ASSISTANCE FOR NEEDY FAMILIES (TANF) PROVISIONS." n.d. Office of Family Support. <http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2013-title45-vol2/pdf/CFR-2013-title45-vol2-sec260-30.pdf>. 99

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Suspension of cash TANF assistance for ten years to an individual family member found to have misrepresented residence by fraud to obtain TANF assistance in two or more states.100

c) Consequences of TANF’s Adoption During the starting years of implementing TANF, it witnessed unprecedented declines in the number of families receiving cash assistance, and unprecedented increases in the share of single Working mothers, especially those with less than a high school education. But since then, as the economy has weakened, nearly all of the employment gains have disappeared, and TANF caseloads have responded only modestly to increased need during the deep economic downturn that started in 2007. The national TANF caseload has declined by 60 percent over the last 16 years, even as poverty and deep poverty (i.e., income below half the poverty line) have worsened. The poverty rate among families fell in the late 1990s, when the economy was booming and unemployment was extremely low, but started rising in 2000 and now exceeds its 1996 level. The increase in deep poverty has been especially large: the number of families in deep poverty rose by 13 percent between 1996 and 2009, from 2.7 million to 3 million. Because TANF reaches so many fewer families than AFDC did, as it has fixed grants unlike AFDC which had unlimited federal funding, it provides substantially less protection against poverty and deep poverty. In 1996, 68 families received TANF for every 100 families in poverty; in 2011, only 27 families received TANF for every 100 families in poverty. In addition, while some of the families that left the TANF rolls went to work, many others left because they were terminated due to time limits or sanctions for failing to comply with program requirements. Research has shown that these families often have barriers to employment that can impede their ability to meet the state’s expectations, such as: mental and physical impairments; substance abuse; domestic violence; low literacy or skill levels; learning disabilities; having a child with a disability; and problems with housing, child care, or transportation. TANF has, for the most part, failed this group of families, many of whom have become disconnected from both work and welfare, by providing them with neither a reliable safety net nor employment assistance that adequately addresses their employment barriers. TANF’s response to the recession demonstrated just how weak a safety net it has become. Caseloads rose by just 16 percent before peaking in December 2010, while the number of unemployed grew by 88 percent during the same time period. TANF caseloads then fell by 5 percent over the course of 2011 even though unemployment remained at or above 8.5 percent.101

"GENERAL TEMPORARY ASSISTANCE FOR NEEDY FAMILIES (TANF) PROVISIONS." n.d. Office of Family Support. <http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2013-title45-vol2/pdf/CFR-2013-title45-vol2-sec260-30.pdf>. "Policy Basics: An Introduction to TANF." n.d. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. <http://www.cbpp.org/research/policybasics-an-introduction-to-tanf?fa=view&id=936>. 101 "Policy Basics: An Introduction to TANF." n.d. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. <http://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-an-introduction-to-tanf?fa=view&id=936>. "Appendix C: Key Differences Between AFDC and TANF." n.d. Advocates for Youth. <http://www.advocatesforyouth.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=383&Itemid=516>. 100

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Impacts of welfare programs The attractiveness of welfare compared to work is that work is heightened by the fact that welfare benefits are a nontaxable form of income, so their dollar value is often greater than the amount of take-home income a worker would have left after paying taxes on an equivalent amount of income. a) Social Impact Over 4.7 million families are currently receiving Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC). For a program designed for a temporary distress until parents find suitable jobs, The average duration of an American family on AFDC should not be 6.5 years, so many people believe that welfare promotes worklessness and gives no motive to work which is fatal to the family itself and the economy. In a program like Supplemental Security Income (SSI); single mothers receive more funds if she refrains from marriage, thus promoting illegitimacy and increasing illigetimate births, negatively affecting children later and their behaviour as adults because of being born out of marriage and being raised in single parent houshold. Statistics by American Enterprise Institute show that in a married couple only 1 child in 10 grows up in poverty, while almost 5 children do in singleparent households. In some programs like Disability program, family gets education funds in case their children are illiterate. Many parents prefer if children stay illiterate in order to get check next month. So the fund designed to educate children becomes the sole reason behind making them illiterate, many claim that safety nets have another devestating effects on children. Recent research by Congressional Budget Office Director June O'Neill shows that increasing the length of time a child spends on welfare may reduce the child's IQ by as much as 20 percent. Also safety nets are believed to negatively affect long term employment and earnings of child upon reaching adulthood, study shows that the more Welfare income received by a family while a child was growing up, the lower the boy's earnings as an adult.Safety nets dictates that recipients are socially and economically vulnerable, in some sitiuations where social welfare funds are enough to pay the bills, some families make sure that they are still exposed in certain ascpect to continue receiving funds. On the other hand, many argues that safety nets are actually benefecial to citizens, by successfully raising millions of American families out of poverty. A study carried out by the Council of Economic Advisers shows that nearly 30 percent of Americans benefit from food stamps program and 34 percent are entitled to TANF program concluding that many Americans rely on safety nets at some point in their lives to help them through hardships. As a result; poverty rate dropped from 26 percent in 1967 to 16 percent in 2012. Not to mention the enormous number of students that graduated from high schools and colleges thanks to student safety nets. The total outstanding balance on student loans recently passed $1

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trillion with average loan of $25,000 per student. Thanks to safety nets, they are more likely to enter middle class and finally conquer poverty. Poor people without welfare aid are often incapable of purchasing items they desire, which make them inclined to stealing and doing drugs at times making them more likely to develop vicious habits. Welfare funds are considered to be one of the main reasons for a lower crime rate because poor people entitled to such programs can afford what they need. b) Economic impact Welfare is the fourth largest expenditure for the Federal government in 2012. Total expenses are expected to come in at around $451.9 Billion. The number of American families entiltled to any sort of benefits is on the rise, accordding to Census bureau 48.5% of homes receive welfare funds on a monthly basis. As half of the American families are somehow relying on the government, dependance culture becomes more often, and liberty becomes more likely to be sacrified for security because Welfare put some restrictions on recipients. Welfare fraud and abuse are of major effect on welfare economic aspects. Funds do not always go to worthy recipients where there have been many fraud incidents. One of the most known incident was about Lyudmila Shimonova and David Silverstein that fraudulently received over $135,000 of tax free funds over a period of ten years. It’s problematic to accuratly deduce the actual fraud rates because the ones who found about fraud attempts are often family and friends, even if not, people would hate to see a family being cut off from welfare fund. But experts claim that current fraud rate is 2% - 3%, which is between $9.0 - $13.5 billion dollars that are illegitimately delivered to 1.2 million families every year.

Welfare also has an impact on the federal tax revenue, the following statistics was carried out by the Congressional Budget Office: 

The top 1% of income earners (approx 1 million families or businesses) in the US account for 15% of the overall earned income but pay 29% (nearly 1/3) of the total federal taxes collected.  Top 20% of wage earners (approx 12 million families or businesses making an average $248K/year) pay 70% of the total taxes collected.  The top 40% of wage earners shoulder 96% of the total tax burden, approximately 47 million families or businesses making an average of $116K/year.  The remaining 4% of the tax burden is paid by the middle class (approximately 23 million families or businesses earning an average $61K/year). Middle class only pays 4% of total federal tax collected. And as more and more families are enrolling in welfare programs, they are more likely to have their taxes reduced or in some cases ommitted entirely.

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Third topic: Carbon Pricing I.

Overview .......................................................................................... 96

II.

Kyoto Protocol ............................................................................... 97

III.

Carbon and the Environment........................................................ 97 a) Sources of Carbon Emissions .................................................

IV.

Curbing Carbon Emissions............................................................ 100 a) Widely Used Measures...........................................................

Carbon tax ....................................................................................... 100 a) Overview of the existing jurisdictions that have introduced a carbon

tax ........................................................................................... b) Emissions and Budget deficit ................................................. c) Impact on households ............................................................ d) Australian experiment ...........................................................

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Carbon Pricing I.

Overview The terms “global warming” and “climate change” are often mistaken to be of the same meaning, but practically they are two distinct terms. Climate change is any substantial change in Earth’s climate that lasts for a specific period of time. While global warming refers to the climate change that causes an increase in the average temperature at the surface of the earth, or the lower part of the atmosphere. Global warming is a worldwide phenomenon, unlike climate change which can be seen at regional or even local scales. Climate change is not only concerned with average temperature, but also other factors that vary, such as humidity, cloudiness, rain and snow, atmospheric pressure, and how this precipitation is spread throughout the year. It only describes the increase in global average temperature, which is currently 59°F (15°C, 288K) and is projected to increase 3-7°F (2-4°C, K) by 2100. Secondary effects of changing temperature and climate are collectively called "global change." Global change can include ecological changes, geological changes, sea level rise, changes in ocean circulations and acidity and societal impacts. These changes result in the disruption in the normal or expected climate that is likely to occur under global warming and the impacts it would have on life and society.

This Graph indicates the annual carbon emissions produced by major countries around the world in different decades till the 2000s. It’s obvious through the years and decades that carbon emissions increase quickly. This is due to the industrialization and the evolution of new machinery and technologies which consume much non-renewable energy and thus produce massive carbon emissions and Green House Gases emissions (GHG). 102 102

"Global Warming vs. Climate Change." n.d. NC State University. <http://www.ncclimate.ncsu.edu/edu/k12/.gwvcc>. "Climate change and global warming - what's the difference?" n.d. Parliament of Australia. <http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Browse_by_Topic/ClimateChang

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Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol is the first legally binding international agreement on climate protection to the Unites Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It was held in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997 and entered into force in February 2005 with 192 parties. This protocol commits state parties to reducing greenhouse gases emissions, based on the fact that global warming exists, and CO2 emissions are man-made. Participating countries have committed to cut emissions of not only carbon dioxide, but also other greenhouse gases, such as, Methane, Nitrous oxide, Hydro fluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons, Sulphur hexafluoride. Participant countries had to abide by engaging in emissions trading, if they continued with emissions above the target. The goals of Kyoto were to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% below the emission levels of 1990 by 2012 of developed countries. The 5.2% target figure being a collective one, individual countries were assigned higher or lower targets based on their current emissions. The European Union agreed to a collective emission reduction target of 8 percent by 2008 to 2012 based on the 1990 base year. Australia agreed to limit itself to an 8 percent increase in greenhouse gas emissions above the 1990 level by 2008 to 2012. The Kyoto Protocol offers the parties means of meeting their targets by way of three marketbased mechanisms: 

The Emissions trading - known as the carbon market it is envisaged as the key tool to reduce greenhouse gases emissions at global level. According to the UNFCCC Secretariat it was worth 30 billion USD in 2006 and keeps growing.  The Clean development mechanism, CDM – it is a project-based mechanism that feeds the carbon market and involves investment in sustainable development projects that reduce emissions in developing countries.  The Joint implementation, JI – it is a project-based mechanism that feeds the carbon market and helps stimulate green investment by encouraging industrialized countries to carry out joint implementation projects with other developed countries. The progress made under Kyoto was not significant, with Europe's savings reduced to just 1% from 1990 to 2008 and the developed world as a whole seeing its emissions rise by 7% in the same period. As a result, global emissions showed no real signs of slowing down.103

III.

Carbon and the Environment Carbon dioxide gas is released into the atmosphere every time fossil fuel is burnt such as coal, gas or oil; usually, naturally released carbon is reabsorbed by microorganisms and plants. However, as a result of extensive production of carbon dioxide since the industrial revolution in e/theBasic/climate>. 103

"The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol." n.d. Network of Regional Governments for Sustainable Development . <http://nrg4sd.org/sites/default/files/default/files/content/public/29climatechange/background/general/rough_guide_unfccc_and_kyoto_protocol_09052011.pdf>. "Terms and Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol" n.d. Parliament of Australia. <http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/CIB/CIB97 98/98CIB10>.

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1750, current carbon dioxide amounts are too huge to be absorbed by living plants and trees, thus trapped in the atmosphere, leading to fatal environmental conditions and altering the earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s climate. The globe has become warmer by 0.75 Celsius degrees for the last hundred years; also each decade has become warmer than the previous one since 1850. Not only does climate change decrease the glaciers and ice coverage; leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather conditions; like coastal flood, storms, drought and heat waves, placing the life of some wild animals in danger of extinction as they will face difficulty coping with warmer climate, making them vulnerable to disease and other invading species. High air temperature can increase the risk of death from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, especially among senior citizens; about 70,000 excess deaths were recorded in Europe during an extreme heat wave in 2003. Water borne diseases and diseases transmitted through insects and other cold blooded animals are massively affected by the slightest change in climate conditions, because their activity increases as weather tends to be warmer. Changing weather patterns can have devastating consequences on economy, as health problems are on the rise, more responsibility is expected from health care programs and social insurance, translating into more expenditures and thus contributing to a wider budget deficit. Agriculture is a vital sector in the United States, with estimated contributions of $200 billion annually; climate change is one of the most important factors affecting crops. As the globe is becoming hotter, many crops are becoming harder to grow and many hazardous pests, parasites and fungi thrive under warmer temperature and increased level of carbon dioxide, posing more challenging conditions for crops and farmers and creating the need to use more pesticides, probably leading to more expensive crops and health problems due to the excessive use of pesticides.104

a) Sources of Carbon Emissions Carbon emissions released from industrial processes are substantial, the total Emissions in the United States in 2012 accounted for 6,526 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.

104

CCSP 2008 the effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources and biodiversity in the united states

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Statistic issued by the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks shows the sources of carbon emissions in the United States. As shown, Electricity and heat generation have the largest share of emissions released, because burning fossil fuels is the main source of power in electric power stations The second source on the list is Transportation. Nearly 90% of transportation methods are fossil fuel based, including all cars, trucks and planes, let alone marine shipping, which produce about 1000 million metric tons of emissions, which is greater than the total emission of other industrialized countries such as Germany. Next is the industry sector, carbon dioxide gas is produced as a biproduct in several chemical processes to transform raw material into useful products, the most significant process is cement manufacturing which produce huge amount of emissions The last sources in the list are agriculture and commercial and residential activities, sharing the same amount of emissions, mostly the emissions arise from livestock, agricultural soils and rice production in the agricultural sector, while residential activities use fossil fuels for heating purposes.105

105

IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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Curbing Carbon Emissions a) Widely Used Measures Carbon emissions, agreed to be an extensive threat on the climate and the economy, will never vanish but can be restricted to a certain limit using diversified methods; however, providing incentives to firms’ owners is proved to be the best methods to lessen the emissions. These incentives can be in the form of: Higher cost of production, through levying fees on emissions where each ton of CO2 produced from or contained in fossil fuels will be taxed. This method is dubbed as “Carbon tax”. A ceiling to the emissions decided by the government, where by Setting limits to amount of emissions each factory is granted the right to produce a specified amount and if owners want more they can buy part of other firm’s share that produce less emissions or they can exchange parts of emissions through auctions. This method is known as “Cap-and-trade program” The congressional budget office proved that a tax on emissions would be the most efficient incentive-based option for reducing emissions, for it is less costly to corporations and could be relatively easy to implement. In 2013 there were six proposals introduced in the 113th Congress to put a price on carbon. Five would establish a carbon tax (also called a “carbon pollution fee”) and one would establish a cap-and-trade program, which emphasizes the previously mentioned interest in carbon tax instead of cap and trade.

Carbon tax A carbon tax is a fee levied on the carbon content of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) and bio fuels. This approach would increase cost on producers and factories which incentivizes them to shift to using methods that helps reduce carbon emissions, on the other hand these taxes is considered as a source of revenue to the government that should be used in relieving diversified issues within the nation, including budget deficit. Historically it all started in 1932 by President Herbert Hoover signing the revenue act authorizing the first federal gasoline tax (one cent per gallon). It was the first gas tax on a federal level but not the first gas tax in the country, since all of the states at the time had their own gas tax. The average cost of gas during that era was ten cents per gallon. After this act federal legislations and proposals followed in the Senate and House of Representatives till now. In August 1979, Rep. John Anderson called for a 50-cent-per gallon energy conservation tax on motor vehicle fuels to reduce consumption and dependence on foreign oil. He proposed using the revenues from the tax to reduce payroll taxes by 50 percent, increase Social Security benefits and also allow tax credits for businesses he said “unfairly penalized.” 106 106

"CARBON PRICING PROPOSALS OF THE 113TH CONGRESS." n.d. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. <http://www.c2es.org/publications/carbon-pricing-proposals-113th-congress>. "Policy Options for Reducing CO2 Emissions." n.d. Congressional Budget Office, U.S. Congress. <http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/02-12-carbon.pdf>. "Federal Gas Tax Passes Another Milestone: What Is The Future?" 6 June 2013. Forbes.

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a) Overview of the existing jurisdictions that have introduced a carbon tax107 Country

Type

Year adopted

Australia

National

2012

British Columbia

Sub-national

2008

France

National

2014

Japan

National

2012

South Africa

National

2016

United Kingdom

National

2013

Coverage 012 Australian carbon pricing applies directly to about 370 Australian businesses and was originally designed as a precursor to a “cap and trade” scheme, with the transition to a flexible price originally scheduled to take place on July 1, 2015. Given the change of political leadership, the Australian Government is expected to abolish the carbon tax from July 2014. The carbon tax applies to the purchase or use of fuels within the province. The carbon tax is revenue neutral; all funds generated by the tax are returned to citizens through reductions in other taxes. In December 2013 the French parliament approved a domestic consumption tax on energy products based on the content of CO2 on fossil fuel consumption not covered by the EU ETS. A carbon tax was introduced from April 1, 2014 on the use of gas, heavy fuel oil, and coal, increasing to €14.5/tCO2 in 2015 and €22/tCO2 in 2016. From 2015 onwards the carbon tax will be extended to transport fuels and heating oil. Japan’s Tax for Climate Change Mitigation covers the use of all fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and Coal, depending on their CO2 emissions. In particular, by using a CO2 emission factor for each sector, the tax rate per unit quantity is set so that each tax burden is equal to US$2/tCO2 (as of April 2014). in May 2013 the South African government published a policy paper for public comment on Introduction of a carbon tax. The paper proposes a fuel input tax based on the carbon content of the fuel. It was agreed that emissions factors and/or procedures are available to quantify CO2-eq emissions with a relatively high level of accuracy for different processes and sectors. The carbon tax will cover all direct GHG emissions from both fuel combustion as well as non-energy industrial process emissions and is expected to start in January 2016. The U.K.’s carbon price floor (CPF) is a tax on fossil fuels used to generate electricity. It came into effect in April 2013 and changed the previously existing Climate Change Levy (CCL) regime, by applying carbon price support (CPS) rates of CCL to gas, solid fuels, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) used in electricity generation.

Tax rate $24.151 per tCO2e (2013)

CAD30 per tCO2e (2012) EUR7 per tCO2e (2014)

USD2 per tCO2e (2014)

R120/tCO2 Tax is proposed to increase by 10% per year until end2019

USD15.75 per tCO2e (2014)

b) Emissions and Budget deficit Putting a price on carbon could help solve two of the nation’s biggest challenges at once, which are restricting climate change and reducing the budget deficit. On one hand Factory owners and individuals affected by carbon pricing would be incentivized to limit their production and <http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2013/06/06/federal-gas-tax-passes-another-milestone-what-is-the-future/>. 107

"Putting a Price on Carbon with a Tax ." n.d. World Bank. <http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/SDN/background-note_carbon-tax.pdf>. "2015 Will Continue Streak Of Shrinking U.S. Budget Deficit." 6 January 2015. NPR. <http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/01/26/381639118/2015-will-continue-streak-of-shrinking-u-sbudget-deficit>.

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emissions of carbon to avoid high production cost, leading to less pollution and higher air quality. On the other hand government revenues would increase by the amount of taxes, which could be used to reduce budget deficit. In 2014 budget deficit fell to 483 billion dollars, from 680 billion dollars in 2013. U.S. debt levels soared in the early years of the economic crisis as the government spent money to try to cope, even as revenues collapsed. In 2009, for instance, the budget deficit stood at 9.8 percent of the U.S. GDP; this year, it's projected to be 2.6 percent. Not only could taxes reduce deficit, but also it can contribute to funding the transition to clean energy sources and low carbon transportation, through government subsidization to the emerging renewable-energy projects, such as wind and solar energy generators. That could help provide more jobs and increase employment rate.

c) Impact on households Economists argue that carbon pricing will impact the Economy by a way or another. It will result in the increase of gas and electricity prices and hence job opportunities will decrease, as companies will try to stay profitable by lowering their labor costs. Producers want to increase their output and decrease cost of production, so they’ll produce the desired level of emissions, pay taxes and increase goods’ prices. In this situation pollution wouldn’t decrease significantly, at the same time low-income households will fell to a higher level of poverty. the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found that a policy that set a price of $28 per metric ton on CO2 emissions (roughly $103 per ton of carbon) would impose a cost of $425 dollars per year on the average household in the lowest income quintile and a cost of $1,380 per year on the average household in the highest income quintile. That’s because low-income households tend to spend larger fraction of their income on consumption of necessities rather than savings, and since many of these necessary goods will suffer from higher prices the level of purchases will decrease and many poor people wouldn’t be able to afford buying their needs.

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d) Australian experiment Also Economists argues that the U.S. will repeat the failed experiment of Australia. In 2012, Australia enacted its “carbon tax”. A $21.50 charge (in U.S. dollars), increasing annually, on each ton of carbon dioxide emitted by the country’s power plants. Yet Australia is now the first country to eliminate its carbon tax because of its failure. Last September, the Institute for Energy Research released a comprehensive study on the effects of Australia’s carbon tax. The tax was a disaster. In its first year of existence, the tax increased household electricity prices by 15 percent which is the highest quarterly increase in the country’s history. Businesses fared no better, their electricity prices jumped 14.5 percent in a single year. Australia’s unemployment rolls rose by 10 percent over the course of a year which is the equivalent of the United States adding 950,000 people to the unemployment line. Meanwhile, there was no environmental benefit to speak of. According to the Australian government’s own data, carbon emissions actually increased after the tax was enacted. Even if the carbon tax were still in operation, the country’s emissions levels weren’t expected to fall below current levels until 2045. They’d have to endure three decades of fewer jobs and higher prices on every day goods just to achieve negligible environmental gains. No wonder Australians turned against the tax.108

"Lessons Congress Can Learn From Australia's Carbon Tax Debacle." 25 July 2014. Roll Call. <http://www.rollcall.com/news/lessons_congress_can_learn_from_australias_carbon_tax_debacle_commentary-235232-1.html>. 108

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Committee on the Judiciary

Congressional Research Service Prepared By: Chairman Sameh Mahmoud

Vice-Chairlady Menatallah Kamal El Deen

Ranking Member Ahmed Rashwan

Party Consultant Aya Alaa

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Committee History and Jurisdiction Established in 1816 as one of the original standing committees in the United States Senate, the Senate Committee on the Judiciary is one of the most influential committees in Congress. It considers legislation relating to judicial proceedings. Since that time, the scope of the committee’s concern has expanded to include not only civil and criminal judicial proceedings and Federal courts and judges, but also issues relating to bankruptcy, espionage, terrorism, the protection of civil liberties, constitutional amendments, immigration and naturalization, interstate compacts, claims against the United States, national penitentiaries, Presidential succession, antitrust law, revision and codification of the statutes of the United States, state and territorial boundary lines and patents, copyrights and trademarks. Particularly important in our time is the Committee's oversight responsibility for the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security. Any legislation that carries a possibility for criminal or civil penalties can be referred to the Committee on the Judiciary, so its legislative workload is substantial. The committee’s weighty agenda has frequently placed it in a central role in American politics, most notably during its consideration of impeachment charges against presidents of the United States in both 1974 and 1998.

Subcommittees:       

Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights Bankruptcy and the Courts The Constitution, Civil Rights and Human Rights Crime and Terrorism Immigration, Refugees and Border Security Oversight, Federal Rights and Agency Actions Privacy, Technology and the Law

Leadership Chairman

Ranking Member

Chuck Grassley

Patrick J. Leahy

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“All, too, will bear in mind this sacred principle, that though the will of the majority is in all cases to prevail, that will to be rightful must be reasonable; that the minority possess their equal rights, which equal law must protect, and to violate would be oppression.” Thomas Jefferson

“In my solitude I have pondered much on the incomprehensible subjects of space, eternity, life and death” Alfred Russel Wallace

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First Topic: Minority Rights A. The Future of Affirmative Action: I. II.

III. IV. V. VI.  VII.

Introduction..................................................................................... 108 What is Affirmative Action? .......................................................... 108 a. Definition................................................................................ b. Historical Background ........................................................... The Supreme Court Cases ............................................................. 109 Situation in the States ..................................................................... 110 The Debate on Affirmative Action ................................................ 112 Alternative Affirmative Action Policies........................................ 115 Class-based “Color-blind” Affirmative Action .................................... Alternative Systems ........................................................................ 115 a. X Percent Plans ...................................................................... b. Targeted Recruiting “Outreach Programs” ............................ c. Random Selection above a Threshold .................................... d. Improving K-12 Education.....................................................

B. Transsexuals’ Rights: I. II.

III.

IV. V. VI.

Introduction..................................................................................... 117 What is Transsexualism? ............................................................... 117 a. Definition ................................................................................ b. History of Transsexualism in the U.S. ................................... c. Important terms Related to Transsexualism ........................... Who are Transsexuals? .................................................................. 118 a. Definition ................................................................................ b. The Development of Transgender Community ...................... c. Types of Medical Therapy...................................................... Transsexuals’ Rights in U.S. Law ................................................. 120 The Debate on Transsexuals’ Rights ............................................ 123 International Perspective ............................................................... 123

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First Topic: Minority Rights I. The Future of Affirmative Action I.

Introduction: Affirmative action is a highly contentious public policy issue that has been addressed by numerous scholars and political figures. Since the beginning of their application and through 54 years, affirmative action policies have been a central issue in the Civil Rights debate in the American political arena. There’s no doubt that members of minority groups and women have suffered from discrimination through modern history, but does the current affirmative action policy represent the right way to address such discrimination or do we need to change those policies?

II.

What is Affirmative Action:

a) Definition: Affirmative action is a set of positive anti-discrimination policies designed to improve the employment and educational opportunities of women and members of minority groups who have suffered discrimination through preferential treatment in job hiring, college admissions, the awarding of government contracts, and the allocation of other social benefits.109 It is predicated on the existence of unfair or unjust exclusion of individuals based upon their identity as members of a stigmatized group.110

b) Historical Background: The Civil Rights Movement was the centerpiece of American politics during the late 1950s and 1960s. When the Civil Rights Act was issued in 1957, it had an effect beyond its literal prohibition of conduct intended to oppress the voting rights of African Americans, which was the enhancement of their already growing desire for social change.111 It all began when President John F. Kennedy issued Executive Order 10,925, in March 1961. The order required government contractors to "take affirmative action to ensure that applicants are employed, and employees are treated during employment, without regard to their race, creed, color, or national origin."112 President Kennedy was the first Public official to use the term “affirmative action” in the context of a nationalized political setting.113 Such critical step taken by President Kennedy laid the groundwork for future development of the policy.

“Confronting Those Affirmative Action Grumbles” by William Darity Jr. , page no.1 “Understanding Affirmative Action: Politics, Discrimination, and the Search for Justice” by J.Edward Kellough, Chapter one, page no.3 110 ibid 111 Meyer, Foy III “Rise and Fall of Affirmative Action” Texas Review of Law & Politics, Vol. 8, Issue 2 (Spring 2004), pp. 475 112 Exec. Order No. 10,925, 3 C.F.R 448 (1959-1963), superseded by Exec. Order No. 11,246, 3 C.F.R 339 (1964-1965). 113 Hermine Herta Meyer, The History And Meaning Of The Fourteenth Amendment 91 (1977). 109

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In June 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson asserted in his commencement speech at Howard University “You do not take a person who, for years, has been hobbled by chains and liberate him, bring him up to the starting line of a race and then say, ‘you are free to compete with all the others,’ and still justly believe that you have been completely fair… We seek not just freedom but opportunity—not just legal equity but human ability—not just equality as a right and a theory, but equality as a fact and as a result”.114 President Johnson issued Executive Order 11,246 which was amended in 1967. This Executive Order as amended in 1967 targeted organizations receiving federal contracts and subcontracts by prohibiting employment discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, and national origin. It further required federal contractors “to take affirmative action to promote the full realization of equal opportunity for women and minorities”.115 After this Executive Order all federal contractors became monitored by the Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs (OFCCP), under the Department of Labor. The (OFCCP) has developed regulations to which these contractors must adhere. Furthermore, the organization assigns officials for the implementation of equal employment opportunity and the affirmative action program.116 The last major development in affirmative action as a policy was in 1969, when the Revised Philadelphia Plan was issued by President Nixon. The plan was developed based on an earlier plan articulated in 1967 by the (OFCCP) and the Philadelphia Federal Executive Board.117 The plan “required all contractors bidding on government funded construction projects to submit an affirmative action program that included goals and targets for minority manpower utilization.”118 From the outset, affirmative action was envisioned as a temporary remedy that would end once there was a "level playing field" for all Americans, and till now affirmative action is still present within both public and private sectors.

III.



The Supreme Court on Affirmative Action: In the 1978 case, Regents of the University of California v. Bakke, the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 5-4 ruling, struck down the use of racial quotas in the admission policy of the University of California at Davis’s medical school, because it violated the Equal Protection Clause. The Equal Protection Clause, included in the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, affirms that "no state shall deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws." While this landmark decision eliminated racial quotas, the court ruled that the goal of achieving a diverse student body was sufficiently compelling to justify consideration of race in admissions decisions under some circumstances.119

Garrison-Wade F. Dorothy., and Lewis W. Dr.Chance, “Affirmative Action: History and Analysis,” Journal of College Admission (June 2004) :24 115 Portia Bailey, “Correcting Affirmative Action” Spring 2013, Legal Studies, School of Public and Environmental Affairs, p.6 114

116

"A Brief History of Affirmative Action." 5 June 2015. Office of Equal Opportunity and Diversity. <http://www.oeod.uci.edu/aa.html>. Portia Bailey, “Correcting Affirmative Action” Spring 2013, Legal Studies, School of Public and Environmental Affairs, p.7 Thomas Surge. "Affirmative Action from Below: Civil Rights, the Building Trades, and the Politics of Racial Equality in the Urban North, 1945-1969." Journal Of American History 91, no. 1 (June 2004): 145-173. 119 Regents of Univ. of California v. Bakke, (No. 7811), 438 U.S. 265 (1978) 117 118

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

In 2003, the U.S. Supreme ruled in the Gratz v. Bollinger that the point system used by the University of Michigan for undergraduate admissions "predetermined point allocations" that awarded 20 points to underrepresented minorities was unconstitutional. In the majority decision, Chief Justice Rehnquist stated that the University of Michigan had violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment by using an overly mechanized system as a way to include race in admission decisions.120



The Grutter v. Bollinger case was also decided in 2003. In a 5-4 vote, the U.S. Supreme Court narrowly upheld the decision to allow colleges and universities to use race as a component in their admissions policies by approving a University of Michigan Law School system that gave minority applicants an edge in the admissions decision-making process.121



In the 2014 case, Schuette v. Coalition to Defend Affirmative Action, the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-2 decision, upheld a Michigan voter initiative that banned affirmative action in public education and in state employment and contracting. The court didn’t reexamine the constitutionality of affirmative action, but six justices agreed that states may end racial preferences without violating the U.S. Constitution.122

To Sum up: -

The use of Quota system is unconstitutional.

The use of “predetermined point allocations” is unconstitutional.

Universities are allowed to use race as an element in the admission process.

There is no federal law that obliges states to apply affirmative action. Consequently states can pass laws that ban affirmative action.

IV.

Situation in the States: The majority of states apply the system of affirmative action except the following states: 

Texas (1996): After the U.S. Court of Appeal for the Fifth Circuit ruled in the case of Hopwood vs. Texas by ending affirmative action policies at Texas public colleges and universities123, legislators passed a law called “10 Percent Plan” that required public higher education institution in Texas to accept student who succeeded to be within the top 10 percent of their high school graduating class.124

Gratz v. Bollinger, 539 U.S. 244 (2003). Grutter v. Bollinger, 539 U.S. 306 (2003). 122 Schuette v. Coal. Defend Affirmative Action, Integration & Immigration Rights, 572 U.S. (2014) 123 Hopwood v. Texas, 78 F.3d 932 (5th Cir. 1996) 124 Texas House Bill 588 { http://www.legis.state.tx.us/billlookup/text.aspx?LegSess=75R&Bill=HB588} 120 121

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California (1996) ;Washington (1998): California and Washington passed similar laws that prohibit state and local agencies from granting preferential treatment to any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in public education, public employment or public contracting. These state initiatives have eliminated affirmative action programs at all public colleges and universities in California and Washington. However, unlike Washington, California has gone further to include a “Percentage Plan” similar to the ones applied in Texas and Florida called “Four Percent Plan".125



Florida (1999): In 1999 Florida's Governor, Jeb Bush, issued Executive Order 99-281, known as the “One Florida” initiative. The Executive Order prohibited the use of affirmative action in state schools' admissions policies, as well as in government employment and state contracting. The One Florida initiative not only banned affirmative action but it also included a set of reforms to the primary education system to help get students qualified for colleges. It also included “The Talented Twenty Program” which guaranteed for high school students who end up in the top twenty percent of their class to get admitted into college.126



Michigan (2006): The Michigan Civil Rights Initiative (MCRI), or Proposal 2 was a program that prohibited state and local agencies from granting preferential treatment to any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in public education, public employment or public contracting. The program passed after being voted by Michigan citizens to be part of the constitution in 2006.127 In 2011, a three-panel federal appeals court ruled that Michigan's Proposal 2 is unconstitutional, thus overturning the ban on affirmative action in college admissions in Michigan. This ruling was upheld by the full 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in 2012. In October 2013, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments on Proposition 2 and in April 2014 ruled in a 6-2 decision that voters may prohibit affirmative action in public universities, thus overturning the lower court's decision and upholding Proposition 2.



Nebraska (2008): Nebraska's ballot measure, Initiative 424, was passed by voters. The initiative eliminates affirmative action programs at state colleges and universities.128



Arizona (2010): Voters approved a measure that the Legislature referred to the ballot, prohibiting the state from granting preferential treatment to or discriminating against any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in public employment, education and

OHIO STATE LAW JOURNAL [Vol. 62: 1729 (2001)] 1 of 31 “Isn’t it Ironic? The Central Paradox at the Heart of (Percentage Plans)” by Michelle Adams. p.5 126 “Beyond Percentage Plans: The Challenge of Equal Opportunity in Higher Education” by U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, Office for Civil Rights Evaluation, p.52, November 2002 127 "Affirmative Action: State Action." April 2014. National Conference of State Legislators. <http://www.ncsl.org/research/education/affirmative-action-state-action.aspx>. 128 “Ballot Issues Education for the 2008 General Election Initiative 424: Constitutional Amendment to Prohibit Discrimination or Preferential Treatment” by J. David Aiken and Bradley D. Lubben, University of Nebraska, Lincoln. 125

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contracting. The initiative is similar to those seen previously in California, Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska and Washington, but this is the first time a state legislature has put this question on the ballot. In the other instances, the ballot measure was a citizen initiative.129 

New Hampshire (2011): In 2011, New Hampshire passed a law that prohibits preferential treatment or discrimination in recruiting, hiring, promotion, or admission based on race, sex, national origin, religion, or sexual orientation. The law applies to state agencies, the university system, the community college system, and the postsecondary education commission.130



Oklahoma (2012): Voters approved legislative referendum prohibiting the state from granting preferential treatment to or discriminating against any individual or group on the basis of race, color, sex, ethnicity or national origin in the operation of public employment, public education, or public contracting.131

The Debate on Affirmative Action: The debate on affirmative action has continued for decades. Both proponents and opponents keep defending their point of view using numerous arguments. The following are the most strong and popular arguments:

 Proponents: Supporters have put forth several rationales in support of affirmative action: 1- Compensation for past discrimination: It’s argued that affirmative action policies are necessary in order to compensate for centuries of racial, social, and economic oppression. Proponents argue that affirmative action is necessary to compensate groups that have been victimized in the past, often by the government. This rationale holds especially true for African Americans, who were brought to the United States under force, sold into slavery, and, after emancipation, legally discriminated against for more than a century under segregation and Corrective justice, it follows, requires that our society do what it can to restore victims' descendants to the position that they would have been in had these wrongs not been committed.132

2- Lack of opportunities: Proponents claim that even in the absence of deliberate discrimination, many members of minority groups may simply have fewer opportunities available to them. They may be less prepared for the SAT or the college admissions process in general because of where “The Impact of Affirmative Action Bans in Graduate Education” by Liliana M. Garces, George Washington University, University of Michigan, July, 2012, p.7 130 ibid 131 ibid 132 “Affirmative Action Debate” Article, Harvard Journal on Legislation, Vol. 40, Issue 1 (Winter 2003), pp. 195-216 by Bhoumik, Arunabha. 129

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they grow up, where they went to school, etc. Affirmative action programs are meant to ensure these students don't miss out on opportunities. Generally, individuals with higher socioeconomic status have more opportunities than those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. Supporters believe that certain racial or ethnic groups are disadvantaged because they are frequently in lower income brackets and consequently are not exposed to the same resources as students from higher socioeconomic classes. Advocates support the notion of competition between students based on merit, but argue that affirmative action compensates for economic disparities. 3- Maintaining intellectual diversity: Supporters argue that affirmative action is necessary to maintain intellectual diversity at schools. Justice Powell articulates this "diversity rationale" in the following manner: "The atmosphere of speculation, experiment and creation-so essential to the quality of higher education-is widely believed to be promoted by a diverse student body."133 Proponents of this argument point to research showing that surrounding a student with members of different races improves his or her academic success.134 4- Creating a class of minority professionals: It’s claimed that affirmative action is necessary for the creation of a class of minority professionals who can serve as role models for members of underprivileged groups. Affirmative action programs have resulted in doubling or tripling the number of minority applications to colleges or universities, and have made colleges and universities more representative of their surrounding community. Graduates who benefited from affirmative action programs say that they have received better jobs, earned more money, and ultimately are living better lives because of the opportunity they received.135 5- The “glass ceiling” issue: Advocates of affirmative action argue that applying affirmative action helps women and members of minority groups to overcome the “glass ceiling”136 issue and that working only on encouraging institutions to give these groups more chances in higher posts has proved to be not effective.

 Opponents: 1- Reverse discrimination: An important argument of opponents is that affirmative action was created to ensure fair admission practices and to rectify a long period of racial discrimination. However the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA REGENTS v. BAKKE, 438 U.S. 265 (1978) 438 U.S. 265. Jeffrey D. Grosset, “Upholding Diversity in the Classroom as a Compelling Interest”, 52 CASE W. RES. L. REV. 339, 358 (2001). 135 Peter H. Schuck, “Affirmative Action: Past, Present, and Future”, 20 YALE L. & POL'Y REV. 1, 6-7 (2002) 136 “Glass ceiling” is the invisible but real barrier through which the next stage or level of advancement can be seen, but cannot be reached by a section of qualified and deserving employees. Such barriers exist due to implicit prejudice on the basis of age, ethnicity, political or religious affiliation, and/or sex. (http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/glassceiling.html#ixzz3Xov4pxgd) 133 134

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policy is outdated, and causes a form of reverse discrimination by favoring one group over another, based on racial preference rather than academic achievement. Critics note the inherent unfairness of giving an advantage to one applicant based on race at the expense of other students.' Furthermore, they argue that the cost-bearers of affirmative action programs are innocent with respect to transgressions of the past and, therefore, should not have to pay for them. This effect is especially problematic when the costbearers are other minorities, such as Asian Americans, who have also faced substantial disadvantages.137 2- Putting a stigma on its beneficiaries: Furthermore, there is a concern that minority groups may be stigmatized and treated differently by peers and professors who may believe that the success of minority groups in higher education institutions is unearned. Justice Powell wrote that "preferential programs may only reinforce common stereotypes holding that certain groups are unable to achieve success without special protection based on a factor having no relationship to individual worth."138 Critics argue that beneficiaries of affirmative action have lower academic performance and higher drop-out rates.139 Thus, affirmative action may further strengthen the impression that minorities are unable to achieve without preferential treatment. 3- The “diversity rationale” is hollow: Many opponents believe that diversity in higher education is extremely important, but that affirmative action only serves to amplify racial prejudice. Because there is no correlation between skin color and intelligence, affirmative action programs are unnecessary. Critics point out that the "diversity rationale" for affirmative action is hollow if universities make no attempts to diversify the student body in other ways beyond race. Race, they argue, is only one aspect of diversity.140 Yet, universities that employ affirmative action programs generally make no attempt to diversify based on other criteria, such as political affiliation or religion. Instead, they rely on race as a proxy for diversity of viewpoints. Affirmative action programs therefore ignore how "diverse" American society really is.141 4- It helps wealthy members of minority groups: Others argue that affirmative action programs currently help many members of minority groups who are already wealthy or well-connected, and don't need a boost, and that the programs should help disadvantaged people of all races instead. Peter H. Schuck, “Affirmative Action: Past, Present, and Future”, 20 YALE L. & POL'Y REV. 1, 6-7 (2002) Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 438 U.S. 265, 298 (1978) (plurality opinion). 139 “Affirmative Action Debate” Article, Harvard Journal on Legislation, Vol. 40, Issue 1 (Winter 2003), pp. 195-216 by Bhoumik, Arunabha. 140 Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 438 U.S. 265, 298 (1978) (plurality opinion). 141 Peter H. Schuck, “Affirmative Action: Past, Present, and Future”, 20 YALE L. & POL'Y REV. 1, 6-7 (2002) 137 138

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Alternative Affirmative Action Policies:  Class-based “Color-blind” Affirmative Action: A class-based affirmative action would have the same structure as race-based affirmative action. The difference is that preferential treatment will be given to disadvantage people without looking to the race of the person. For example, in higher education, a disadvantage person who will benefit from the policy is determined according to the three major determinants of life chances, which are: parental income, education, and occupation. Other factors that could be taken into consideration through the admission process are family's net worth, the quality of secondary education, neighborhood influences, and family structure.142 Middle-class African Americans may object to a class-based affirmative action policy because they will no longer benefit from the policy. They may argue that affirmative action was intended to rectify the injustices of the past against African Americans, not lower income whites or other lower income races. Also higher institutions of education that fear a class-based affirmative action policy may threaten their goal of diversity.

VII.

Alternative Systems: a) X Percent Plans: “X percent plans” are a response to the political problems created by affirmative action particularly the highly charged problems associated with score adjustments that favor some groups over others in college admissions. The purpose of these plans is to increase ethnic and racial diversity in a race-neutral manner.143 An “X Percent Plan” simply means that students who belong to a certain percentage of the top of their class will be guaranteed a place in one of the state’s university. One such program is Florida’s Talented 20 Percent plan. All high schools students who are in the top 20 percent of their high school class are guaranteed a place in one of the state’s universities. Similar plans exist in Texas and California. “X percent plans” address the major problems associated with affirmative action and diversity programs – categorical distinctions based on race and ethnicity, and perceptions of fairness. Some opponents of affirmative action claim that unlike affirmative action, “X percent plans” make no attempt to engineer diversity in order to produce specific results. The primary objective of these plans is to increase or maintain racial and ethnic diversity in a way that is perceived as fair. And that they also convey a sense of fairness by admitting everyone above a given cutoff score.144 142

Richard D. Kahlenberg “Class-Based Affirmative Action: A Natural for Labor,” New Labor Forum (Spring/Summer 1998).

143

No Best Way: An Evolutionary Perspective on Human Resource Management By Stephen M. Colarelli.

144

“Beyond Percentage Plans: The Challenge of Equal Opportunity in Higher Education” by U.S. Commission on Civil Rights,

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b) Targeted Recruiting “Outreach Programs”: It is the direct attempts to recruit minority applicants. That would be scholarship programs that might go specifically to populations where there are a lot of minorities. For example, in Texas, the Longhorn Opportunity Scholarship at the University of Texas is given to students at particular high schools and those particular high schools were chosen on the basis of having a low sending rate of students to the University of Texas. And those high schools happen to also have high percentages of minority students. In states that have a ban on affirmative action, outreach programs have struggled usually from the legal aspect which pushed administrators of these programs to target socially and economically less developed areas instead of going directly to areas of large minorities populations to evade the possible illegality of the program.145 Critics note that outreach programs may be problematic because they utilize resources for the benefit of one group at the expense of another146

c) Random Selection above a Threshold: Advocates of this strategy promote that the objectives of random selection above a threshold are to enhance diversity in hiring, to be responsive to moral and legal injunctions against discrimination based on sex, race, and ethnicity, to maximize fairness, to allow implementation to occur in a straightforward way by minimizing the opportunity for political manipulation and administrative slippage, and to maintain standards in the selection of employees and students.147 Random selection above a threshold works by randomly selecting applicants from a pool of qualified applicants. In a random selection, every applicant within the pool has an equal probability of being selected. If there are 100 applicants in the pool and 10 openings, each applicant has a 10 percent chance of being selected. Selection from the applicant pool is the easy part. Determining how people are included in the applicant pool is more difficult; it involves establishing criteria for selection, identifying a means for assessing a person`s standing, and developing assessment standards for the threshold of the pool of applicants.

d) Improving K-12 Education: The idea behind these programs is improving K-12 education to help students who belong to economically disadvantaged class or who belong to certain minority groups, to get their education with a higher quality that aid their advancement by improving their education skills, and habits. Programs of K-12 education reform intend to help people who are underrepresented to have the qualifications to compete in the admission process of educational institutions and public and private jobs. Office for Civil Rights Evaluation, p.52, November 2002 145 ibid 146 Peter H. Schuck, “Affirmative Action: Past, Present, and Future”, 20 YALE L. & POL'Y REV. 1, 6-7 (2002) 147 No Best Way: An Evolutionary Perspective on Human Resource Management By Stephen M. Colarelli.

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II. Transsexuals’ Rights I.

Introduction: Freedom, liberty, choice, society and religion, all of these elements are variables in an equation in the mind of a transsexual person, combined with the sense of being different, the equation arises from sociological ,psychological and philosophical factors , it’s about the relevance of the rules of acceptance and dependable on the observer’s own judgment which is accordingly subjected to emotions.

II.

What is Transsexualism? a) Definition: There are many definitions for Transsexualism, among the most agreed upon definitions are: 

Transsexualism is a condition that exists when a physiological normal person experiences discomfort or discontent about his or her biological gender and prefers to be the other gender. Such persons may be diagnosed with a condition named gender dysphoria or Gender Identity Disorder.148



Or simply, the desire to convert the original sex into the opposite one.

There is no consent about whether transsexualism is a mental illness, a mere physiological problem or it is just a sexual affiliation and orientation. The American Psychiatric Association (APA) describes transgender people as Gender Dysphoria , people whose gender at birth is contrary to the one they identify themselves with.149

b) History of Transsexualism in the United States: In order to understand something well, you have to take a look at its history. The point where and when transsexualism started or originated can’t be known for sure. Transsexualism rooted long ago before the term was coined, or even before psychiatrists diagnose it as a psychopathological disorder which started in the late 19th century. Since the late nineteenth century, people whom we would now call transgender have advocated legal and social reforms that from their own perspective would ameliorate the kinds of oppression and discrimination they have suffered as a result of their difference from the way most people understand their own gender. Much of the early history of transsexualism is intertwined with the history of the homosexual social movement in Europe. In Germany 1897 Magnus Hirschfeld, was a transsexualism activism. He was a politically active sexologist who was also a pioneer advocate for transgender rights. He employed transgender people on the staff of his Institute for Sexology in Berlin. 150

148

Lie v. E.E.O.C. Appeal No. 01851097 Sky Pub. Corp. 15 Mass. L. Rep. 412 (Mass. Super. Ct., 2002).

149

2013 American Psychiatric Association publishing the 5th edition.

150

"Transgender Activism." n.d. Encyclopedia of Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender and Queer Culture.

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The transgender history then pauses for a while, it was not until 1952 when everything started to revive again, it was when Christine Jorgensen, an American citizen, became the first transgender women to undergo a sex reassignment surgery, after George had a trip to Denmark, he came back as Christine.151 The case of Christine was just the beginning, the revolution in sexology and personal liberates was slowly growing, but a lot of members of the society opposed and still oppose such movements and they refuse all claims of discrimination. During the last decade, the transgender activism kept going by being a part of the LGBT movements “lesbian, gay, bisexual and transsexual”. LGBT movement is a social and political sort of activism, by demanding social equality and a struggle to change the society's perspective towards people with different sexual orientations and grant them their rights.

c) Important Terms Related to Transsexualism:

III.



Birth defect: A person with a birth defect is someone suffers or has suffered from gender dysphoria, may refer to their medical condition as a “birth defect”. 152



Crossdresser: Someone who dresses occasionally in the clothing of the opposite gender.153



Sexual orientation: A person enduring physical, romantic, emotional, and attraction to another person from any gender.154



Genderqueer: This term is generally used in two ways: (1) as an umbrella term that includes all people whose gender varies from the traditional norm, similar to the use of the word “queer” to refer to people whose sexual orientation is not heterosexual only, or (2) to describe a subset of individuals who are born anatomically female or male, but feel their gender identity is neither female or male.155

Who are Transsexuals? a) Definition: A person with the external genitalia and secondary sexual characteristics of one sex, but whose personal identification and psychosocial configuration is that of the opposite sex.156 It’s important to differentiate the term “transgender” from the term “transsexual”. The term Transgender refers to a broader meaning than “transsexual”, the term is used to describe a broad range of people who experience and/or express their gender somewhat differently from

<http://www.glbtq.com/social-sciences/transgender_activism.html>. 151 "Christine Jorgensen: 60 years of sex change ops." 30 November 2012. BBC News. <http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine20544095>. 152 The Fenway Institute Glossary of Gender and Transgender Terms / Key Terms /birth defect. 153 Connecticut Outreach Society/Transgendered Definitions. 154 154 The Fenway Institute Glossary of Gender and Transgender Terms / Key Terms / sexual orientation. 155 The Fenway Institute Glossary of Gender and Transgender Terms / Key Terms / Genderqueer 156 medical definition of transsexualism: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/transsexual

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what most people expect.157 Also Transgender people may or may not choose to alter their bodies hormonally and/or surgically 158

b) The Development of Transgender Community in the United States: The transgender community has always been in a continuous development process that roots back to the 1800s. From their side, they claim that they struggled to achieve gender identity protections. Both sides the transgender activists and conservatives have been sitting on the civil right negotiation table for more than 30 years. From transsexuals’ perspective they always participated in negotiations not only get their rights but also to defeat sexual orientation discrimination, while the opposing side has always been ready to negotiate.159 One of the popular groups in transgender community was “Street Transvestite Action Revolutionaries” (STAR) in 1970. The group was established by two transgender women “Marsha P. Johnson” and “Sylvia Rivera”, the aim of the group according to its founders is to provide shelter for homeless transgender people as they suffer from discrimination in shelter access.160 The transgender community aside from the social activism is also offering social ties to transgender people as clubs for cross-dressers or as the “STAR” group did by offering help to them through shelters. Till this day the transgender community is still getting bigger while operating hand in hand within the LGBT movements to ensure better life for people with different sexual orientation. Some of these rights claimed by the LGBT people in general are: 1) Anti-discrimination laws for employment and housing. 2) Access to sex reassignment surgery and hormone replacement therapy. 3) Recognition of same-sex unions. 4) Same-sex marriage. 5) Protecting transgenders in military. The LGBT are not the only channel where and when transgender activists operate to claim their rights, there are also groups like “GenderPAC, International Foundation for Gender Education, National Center for Transgender Equality, Transcending Boundaries Conference”.

c) Types of Medical Therapy: Transsexuals have a variety of therapeutic options ranging from Psychological therapy to surgical intervention.

157

TRANSGENDER RESEARCH LITERATURE REVIEW by Kara Devaney

158

The Fenway Institute Glossary of Gender and Transgender Terms / Key Terms / transgender

"Street Transvestite Action Revolutionaries." 24 September 2006. Workers.org. <http://www.workers.org/2006/us/lavenderred-73/>. 160 ibid 159

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Psychotherapy: It includes exploring gender identity, role, and expression; addressing the negative impact of gender dysphoria and stigma on mental health; alleviating internalized transphobia; enhancing social and peer support; improving body image; or promoting resilience.161 Hormone Replacement Therapy: It is feminizing/masculinizing hormone therapy or the administration of exogenous endocrine agents to induce feminizing or masculinizing changes.162 Initiation of hormone therapy may be undertaken after a psychosocial assessment has been conducted and informed consent has been obtained by a qualified health professional. Transsexual persons seeking to develop the physical of the secondary sex characteristics of the desired gender, undergo a course of hormonal treatment “he/she take the hormones of the desired gender” which result in a physiological changes.163 Sex Reassignment Surgery: SRS procedures could be a minor surgery as “breast augmentation, mastectomy” which result in a change in the appearance, or a genital reassignment surgery which is more complex procedure in which the individual undergoes a surgical operation to alter his/her reproductive system. 164

IV.

Transsexuals’ Rights in U.S. Law: In the United States the transgender activists have always been seeking legislation that aimed at granting the transgender people their rights and protected them against discrimination. So far these efforts has resulted in some laws that contribute to ending discrimination , however in the opinion of transgender community these laws are not enough , they demand more laws to improve their status in the society.

a) Birth Certificates & Marriage: For a transsexual person to know the legal status of his marriage after finishing his therapy he must examine different factors as the type of therapy they have undergone, the time of the transition (before or after marriage), and the type of their marriage after the transition (Differentsex marriage or Same-sex marriage).

Standards of Care for the Health of Transsexual, Transgender, and Gender-Nonconforming People. by The World Professional Association for Transgender Health. Version 7. p.8 162 Ibid. 163 Endocrine Treatment of Transsexual Persons:An Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guideline 164 2006 Vancouver Coastal Health, Transcend Transgender Support & Education Society, and the Canadian Rainbow Health Coalition. 161

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To make their marriage legal and protected, transsexual people need a legal document as evidence on their new sexual identity. The essential document they need is a new birth certificate with their new sex designation. The problem arises because states have different conditions regarding altering sex on birth certificates that relates to the type of therapy the transsexual person have undergone.165 Some states require the Sex Reassignment Surgery to alter sex on birth certificates which prevent transsexuals who undergo Hormone Replacement Therapy or Psychotherapy from issuing their new certificates. There are currently 28 states that apply this condition to alter sex designation on birth certificates, Those are Nevada, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New York, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Alaska, Hawaii, and Delaware.166 Some other states don’t require the Sex Reassignment Surgery to alter sex on birth certificates. They are currently 17 states. Washington, Oregon, California, UTAH, Wyoming, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Mississippi, Indiana, Michigan, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Maryland. Also District of Columbia applies the same regulation.167 A last type of states don’t alter the sex designation in birth certificates at all whatever the type of therapy the transsexual person had. In these states, transsexual people cannot legally marry. These states are 5, namely Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.168 Another aspect of transsexuals’ marriage is the time of transition and whether it’s after marriage of before it. If the transition happened before getting married169: 

And the gender identities of the two persons are different-sex, then the validity of the marriage will depend on the state regulation regarding altering the sex designation in birth certificates. But generally, the marriage will be legal if the transsexual person succeeded in altering his sex designation and issuing a new birth certificate.



And the gender identities of the two persons are same-sex, then the marriage will only be possible in those states that issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, which are currently 30 states.

"Changing Birth Certificate Sex Designations: State-By-State Guidelines." n.d. Lambada Legal. <http://www.lambdalegal.org/know-your-rights/transgender/changing-birth-certificate-sex-designations>. 166 U.S. States and Canadian Provinces: Instructions for Changing Name and Sex on Birth Certificate 167 Ibid. 168 Ibid. 169 CHANGE OF SEX DESIGNATION ON TRANSSEXUALS’ BIRTH CERTIFICATES: PUBLIC POLICY AND EQUAL PROTECTION STEPHANIE MARKOWITZ , CARDOZO JOURNAL OF LAW & GENDER [Vol. 14:705] 165

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If the transition happened after getting married170: 

And the gender identities of the two persons became different-sex, then the marriage will be respected in all states.



And the gender identities of the two persons became same-sex, then the marriage will be respected in all states that respect marriages of same-sex couples. But if the state in which the marriage was conducted doesn’t recognize same-sex marriage then the marriage will be susceptible to invalidation by a court.

b) Housing & public accommodations: Transsexuals go through a lot of difficulties and face discrimination regarding housing. Currently there’re only 17 states (and the District of Columbia) that prohibit discrimination on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation in housing, and public accommodations. Namely, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland.171 And there are only three states that prohibit discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation only. Namely Wisconsin, New York, and New Hampshire. All other states don’t have laws that prohibit discrimination in housing and public accommodation specifically on the basis of sexual orientation and/or gender identity.

c) Imprisonment: Transsexual people have always had problems with the legal system when it comes to prisons and their rights during the period of imprisonment. Transsexual prisoners don’t have the right to be housed in a facility consistent with their gender identity if they didn’t undergo sex reassignment surgery. Transsexuals who didn’t undergo sex reassignment surgery are classified according to their birth sex, regardless of other types of medical or psychological therapy they have undergone. Which make the risk of sexual violence and other types of violence higher for the transsexual person. But transsexuals who have undergone sex reassignment surgery are usually classified according to their new sex, but several breaches have happened in this regard.172 Modernizing State Vital Statistics Statutes and Policies to Ensure Accurate Gender Markers on Birth Certificates: A Good Government Approach to Recognizing the Lives of Transgender People Lisa Mottet National Gay and Lesbian Task Force 171 "TLPI: U.S. Jurisdictions that include transgender people in human rights laws." n.d. The Transgender Law and Policy Institute. <http://www.transgenderlaw.org/ndlaws/> 172 "Transsexual Prisoners." n.d. The Transgender Law and Policy Institute. <http://www.transgenderlaw.org/resources/prisoners.htm/> 170

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Another issue is that transsexuals do not have the right to continue their hormone therapy during imprisonment. The policy of the U.S. Bureau of Prisons is to provide hormones at the level that was maintained prior to incarceration. But that does not mean neither that the prisoner will get hormones at the level that is required for the therapy to be successful, nor that the prisoner will get the needed physical and psychological support services. In addition, it is often difficult for transsexual prisoners to document a prior prescription for hormones, either because of the practical difficulties and limitations imposed by incarceration, or because many transsexual prisoners are indigent and do not have private physicians willing to advocate for them.173

The Debate on Transsexuals’ Rights: Like any other controversial matter, the dispute and debate on transsexual’s rights divides the mass into two camps, the proponents and opponents. Generally the proponents for the transsexual’s rights are people, organizations and parties which foster liberal ideology. On the other hand the opponents foster the conservative ideology.

a) Proponents:  It is freedom of choice.  As long as this person is not harming the society he/she should do whatever they want.  If the religion is against transsexualism, how about people who don’t believe in god.  As a citizen, a transsexual person have rights and obliged with duties, as far as he complied with his duties, his sexual orientation should not affect his rights.

b) Opponents:    

VI.

Transgenssexuals are more likely to be HIV positive than any other group.174 And thus we should not encourage them to go into therapy to try to protect the society. If transsexuals were allowed to stay in a facility that matches their gender identity will open the door for violence against other prisoners since transsexuals are not psychologically stable. It’s not freedom of choice since no one owns the human body but god. Transsexual people are deviation from norm and transsexualism is against all the Monotheistic religions.

International perspective: The way transsexualism is perceived varies from a country to another, the factors affecting the acceptance of transsexuals inside the community are mainly cultural and religious factors. The laws for transsexualism are closely related to that of homosexuality, meaning that if a country supports homosexual’s right, so it most probably support the transsexuals’ rights and vice versa in countries that don’t support both homosexuality and transsexualism.

173 174

ibid HIV Infection among Transgender People, August 2011.

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In countries which donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t support homosexual or transsexualism, the penalties could reach execution by the state, denial of employment, housing or health services loss of custody of children and denial of asylum.175

Africa: In most of Africa homosexuality and transsexualism are prohibited and punishable, for instance, in Nigeria Homosexuality as well as the transsexualism is illegal under federal law,practices are punishable by prison sentences of up to 14 years. In the 12 northern states that have adopted Shari'a law, adults convicted of engaging in homosexual intercourse are subject to execution by stoning. On the contrary in South Africa, same sex marriage and transsexualism are legal, however they were subject to societal abuses including hate crimes, gender violence.

Asia: In most of the Asian countries transsexualism is either prohibited or not even recognized by the federal law, for example, in China no laws criminalize private homosexual or transsexual activity between consenting adults, but they face societal discrimination.

Europe: In most of Europe , the transsexualism is legal , for example in Belgium, In 2007, three acts of parliament came into force replacing earlier anti-racism and anti-discrimination legislation and bringing the country's legislation in line with prevailing European Union directives. One of the laws identified 18 grounds of possible discrimination subject to legal penalty: age, sexual orientation, civil status, birth, financial situation, religious belief, philosophical orientation, physical condition, disability, physical characteristics, genetic characteristics, social status, nationality, race, color of skin, descent, national origin, and ethnic origin. Also in the United Kingdom there are laws prohibit discrimination based on race, nationality, gender, sexual orientation, or disability, and the government generally enforced the law effectively.176

175

"About LGBT Human Rights." n.d. Amnesty USA. <http://www.amnestyusa.org/our-work/issues/lgbtrights/about-lgbt-human-rights>. Sexual Orientation / Gender Identity References U.S. Department of State Human Rights Reports for 2008 (Released February 25, 2009) 176

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Second Topic: Life and death in choices A. Abortion I. II.

III.

IV. V. VI.

Introduction..................................................................................... 126 What is Abortion?........................................................................... 126 a. Definition ................................................................................... b. History of Abortion .................................................................... Legal Aspects of Abortion .............................................................. 127 a. Supreme Court on Abortion ....................................................... b. State Law .................................................................................... The Debate on Abortion ................................................................. 132 Religions on Abortion ..................................................................... 134 Abortion Internationally ................................................................ 135

B. Euthanasia I. II.

III.

IV. V. VI.

Introduction..................................................................................... 137 What is Euthanasia? ....................................................................... 137 a. Definition .................................................................................. b. Types of Euthanasia .................................................................. c. Important Definitions ................................................................ d. History of Euthanasia ................................................................ e. The Controversy........................................................................ Introduction to Physician Assisted Suicide (PAS) ....................... 142 a. Definition .................................................................................. b. Difference Between (PAS) and Euthanasia .............................. Legality of Euthanasia and (PAS) ................................................. 143 International Perspective on Euthanasia and (PAS)................... 144 Religions on Euthanasia and (PAS) .............................................. 146

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Second Topic: Life and death in choices A. Abortion I.

Introduction: Abortion is a very controversial topic not just in the United States but all over the world. The interest in this topic extends from scientists to religions, politicians and human rights activists. For decades, this topic has been debated on and discussed in many political and social forums inside the United States. And till today the debate is still going with the rising of new scientific discoveries and the ongoing process of shaping legal opinions on the issue by courts and legislators. Abortion touches the sanctity of life. Shall abortion be considered murder or a fundamental right for every woman? Opinions are divided between pro-life and pro-choice. The first believe that abortion is a fundamental right, and the latter believes it’s an act of murder.

II.

What is Abortion?: a) Definition Abortion is the surgical or medical termination of a pregnancy.177 It’s the act of deliberate termination of the pregnancy usually in the first or second trimester of the pregnancy. The medical definition of abortion is “the premature exit of the products of conception (the fetus, fetal membranes, and placenta) from the uterus.178 But abortion differs significantly from miscarriage. Miscarriage is defined as the spontaneous loss of a fetus before it is viable. The medical term for miscarriage is "spontaneous abortion".179

b) History of Abortion in the U.S: In the United States, abortion was practiced until about 1880, by which time most states had banned it except to save the life of the woman. Anti-abortion legislation was part of a backlash against the growing movements for suffrage and birth control — an effort to control women and confine them to a traditional childbearing role.180 When abortion was illegal, the ability of a woman to obtain an abortion was depended upon her economic situation, her race, and where she lived. Women with money could often leave the country or find a physician who would perform the procedure for a high fee. Poor women, for the most part, were at the mercy of incompetent practitioners with questionable motives. But

"Abortion: What is Abortion?" n.d. Center for Women’s Health. <http://www.hodesnauser.com/abortion/>. "Abortion definition." 30 October 2013. MedicineNet . <http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=2091>. 179 "What is a miscarriage? What causes a miscarriage?" 9 September 2014. Medical News Today. <http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/262941.php>. 180 "U.S. Abortion History." n.d. Abortion73.com. <http://www.abort73.com/abortion_facts/us_abortion_history/>. 177 178

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with the declining birthrate among whites in the late 1800s, the U.S. government was concerned about “race suicide” and wanted white U.S.-born women to reproduce.181 In the 1950s, about a million illegal abortions a year were performed in the U.S., and over a thousand women died each year as a result. 182 In the 1960s, and inspired by civil rights movements, women began to talk about the taboo of abortion in public, demanding their right to have abortion instead of illegal abortions that caused many of women to die in the illegal operations. Women began to practice social pressure and the issue became a public concern. They also started to lobby lawmakers to draft laws allowing abortion. Reform came gradually. A few states liberalized abortion laws, allowing women abortions in certain circumstances but leaving the decision up to doctors and hospitals. Costs were still high and few women actually benefited.183 In 1970, New York State went further, with a law that allowed abortion on demand if it was done in a medical facility by a doctor. A few other states passed similar laws. And then in 1973 the Supreme Court opened the door for legalizing abortion in the most famous case in the history of abortion, Roe vs. Wade.184

III.

Legal Aspects of Abortion: a) The Supreme Court on Abortion: 

'Griswold v. Connecticut' (1965): Although it didn't address abortion, this precedent-setting case established a constitutional right of privacy for married couples seeking birth control and served as an essential precursor to the Roe v. Wade decision. In this case, the Supreme Court invalidated a Connecticut law that discouraged marital sex for reasons other than procreation by criminalizing birth control counseling or the provision of contraceptives. The court ruled that Estelle Griswold, who was convicted after opening a New Haven Planned Parenthood clinic, could reopen her clinic based on privacy rights guaranteed in the amendments to the Bill of Rights. 185

ibid Boston Women's Health Book Collective. Our Bodies, Ourselves for the New Century. Touchstone, 1998. <http://www.feminist.com/resources/ourbodies/abortion.html>. 183 "History of Abortion in the U.S." n.d. Our Bodies Ourselves (OBOS). <http://www.ourbodiesourselves.org/health-info/u-sabortion-history/>. 184 "U.S. Abortion History." n.d. Abortion73.com. <http://www.abort73.com/abortion_facts/us_abortion_history/>. 181 182

185

"A History of Key Abortion Rulings of the U.S. Supreme Court." 16 January 2013. Pew Research Center. <http://www.pewforum.org/2013/01/16/a-history-of-key-abortion-rulings-of-the-us-supreme-court/>.

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'Roe v. Wade' (1973): 1n 1854 Texas law prohibited abortion except "for the purpose of saving the life of the mother." "Jane Roe" (Norma McCorvey) was denied an elective abortion under the law. She filed suit claiming the Texas law deprived her of constitutional rights.186 The Supreme Court ruled in her favor with 7-2 decision, saying the Texas law violated her constitutional right to abortion. The Court acknowledged that the Constitution does not explicitly mention a right to abortion but said such a right was part of the "right to privacy”. (As the court said in Griswold case) .187 The central holding of the Court was that abortion must be permitted for any reason a woman chooses until the child becomes viable; after viability, abortion must be permitted if necessary to protect a woman's "health." The Court also concluded that a fetus is not a person for purposes of the Constitution and therefore does not have a constitutional right to life. 188



‘Doe v. Bolton’ (1973): 1n 1968 the Georgia legislature passed a law outlawing abortion except where an abortion doctor determines, in his best judgment, that continuation of the pregnancy would endanger the mother's life or seriously and permanently injure her health, or that the baby would "very likely" be born with a grave mental or physical defect, or that the pregnancy resulted from rape.189 "Mary Doe" (Sandra Cano), who was 9 weeks pregnant, filed suit claiming she was entitled to an abortion under the Constitution because she already had three children and would not be able to support another child. A group of abortion doctors, nurses, clergy, and social workers joined in her suit.190 The Supreme Court agreed, and issued a broad list of reasons abortion doctors may consider in determining whether an abortion is necessary for a woman's health: "all factors - physical, emotional, psychological, familial, and the woman's age - relevant to the wellbeing of the patient. All these factors may relate to health." This decision was

"Supreme Court's Evolving Rulings on Abortion." 30 November 2005. NPR. <http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5029934>. 187 ibid 188 ibid 189 "A History of Key Abortion Rulings of the U.S. Supreme Court." 16 January 2013. Pew Research Center. <http://www.pewforum.org/2013/01/16/a-history-of-key-abortion-rulings-of-the-us-supreme-court/>. 190 ibid 186

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issued as a "companion" to Roe v. Wade, making this broad health definition the standard for late-term abortions after the point of viability.191 ď&#x201A;ˇ

'Planned Parenthood of Central Missouri v. Danforth' (1976): Missouri legislators passed a law requiring abortion doctors to obtain a written statement from the mother certifying that her consent was freely given and not the result of coercion and also the written consent of her husband or of her parent if she was a minor girl (unless the abortion was necessary to save the mother's life). It also required doctors to exercise professional care to preserve the baby's life and health, declared babies who survived abortion to be abandoned wards of the state, prohibited saline injection abortions after 12 weeks, created an official definition for viability, and established reporting and recordkeeping requirements for abortion clinics and doctors.192 A Missouri Planned Parenthood clinic filed suit, claiming all provisions of the law were unconstitutional. The Court upheld the requirement for written consent from the woman but concluded that spousal and parental consent requirements amounted to an unconstitutional "veto power" over a decision which should be left to the "medical judgment of the pregnant woman's attending physician" according to Roe. 193 The Court also upheld the recordkeeping requirements and the definition of viability because it maintained the flexibility recognized in Roe v. Wade. The Court struck down the prohibition on saline abortions, calling it an "arbitrary regulation designed to prevent the vast majority of abortions" after 12 weeks, and the duty of care provision because it required a doctor to preserve the baby's life whatever the stage of pregnancy. The Court declined to rule on the constitutionality of making abortion survivors wards of the state.194

ď&#x201A;ˇ

'Webster v. Reproductive Health Services' (1989): The Missouri legislature passed a law which banned the use of state money, employees, and facilities for abortions unnecessary to save the mother's life. The law included a preamble stating life begins at conception. 195

ibid "Supreme Court's Evolving Rulings on Abortion." 30 November 2005. NPR. <http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5029934>. 193 "Planned Parenthood of Central Missouri v. Danforth (No. 74-1151)." n.d. Cornell University Law School. <https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/428/52>. 194 ibid 195 "Supreme Court's Evolving Rulings on Abortion." 30 November 2005. NPR. <http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5029934>. 191 192

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Reproductive Health Services and other abortion providers filed suit claiming the law was unconstitutional under Roe v. Wade. The Supreme Court disagreed. The Court ruled that there is no affirmative right to funding or assistance for abortion and that the preamble merely stated a value judgment but did not create a basis for regulating abortion.196 ď&#x201A;ˇ

'Planned Parenthood v. Casey' (1992): The Pennsylvania legislature passed an abortion law imposing several procedural requirements on abortion doctors: to obtain a woman's informed consent, to provide her with certain information 24-hours before performing the abortion, to obtain the informed consent of one parent in the case of a minor (a judicial bypass was also provided allowing the minor to go directly to court for an order permitting the abortion without her parent's knowledge), to obtain a statement from the woman that she has notified her husband unless certain exceptions apply, and to file informational reports.197 Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania filed suit claiming the regulations violated Roe v. Wade. Pennsylvania defended its law in part by arguing that Roe v. Wade should be overturned. The Supreme Court issued a patchwork of opinions. The plurality opinion of Justices Souter, O'Connor, and Kennedy is the lead opinion and precedent because each part of the opinion was joined by at least two other justices. The plurality affirmed the "essential holding" of Roe v. Wade, stating that: abortion was a basic constitutional liberty, an "entire generation has come of age" relying on Roe's "concept of liberty," and overturning Roe would "subvert the Court's legitimacy" and "seriously weaken the Court's capacity to exercise the judicial power."198 The plurality voted to abandon Roe's trimester framework but reaffirmed that abortion must be permitted after viability for "health" reasons. The plurality also set aside the "strict scrutiny" standard of review for abortion regulations in favor of a new "undue burden" standard, where a regulation would be struck down as unconstitutional if its "purpose or effect" was to "place substantial obstacles in the path of a woman seeking an abortion before the fetus attains viability."199

ibid "A History of Key Abortion Rulings of the U.S. Supreme Court." 16 January 2013. Pew Research Center. <http://www.pewforum.org/2013/01/16/a-history-of-key-abortion-rulings-of-the-us-supreme-court/>. 198 ibid 199 "Supreme Court's Evolving Rulings on Abortion." 30 November 2005. NPR. <http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5029934>. 196 197

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b) State Law: Since the Supreme Court handed down its 1973 decisions in Roe v. Wade and Doe v. Bolton, and with the absence of a federal law regulating the matter, states have constructed a lattice work of abortion law, codifying, regulating and limiting whether, when and under what circumstances a woman may obtain an abortion. 

Physician and Hospital Requirements: 39 states require an abortion to be performed by a licensed physician. 21 states require an abortion to be performed in a hospital after a specified point in the pregnancy, and 18 states require the involvement of a second physician after a specified point. 200



Gestational Limits: 43 states prohibit abortions, generally except when necessary to protect the woman’s life or health, after a specified point in pregnancy, most often fetal viability. 201



Public Funding: 17 states use their own funds to pay for all or most medically necessary abortions for Medicaid enrollees in the state. 32 states and the District of Columbia prohibit the use of state funds except in those cases when the woman’s life is in danger or the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. In defiance of federal requirements, South Dakota limits funding to cases of life endangerment only. 202



Coverage by Private Insurance: 11 states restrict coverage of abortion in private insurance plans, most often limiting coverage only to when the woman’s life would be endangered if the pregnancy were carried to term. Most states allow the purchase of additional abortion coverage at an additional cost. 203



Refusal: 46 states allow individual health care providers to refuse to participate in an abortion. 43 states allow institutions to refuse to perform abortions, 16 of which limit refusal to private or religious institutions. 204



State-Mandated Counseling: 17 states mandate that women be given counseling before an abortion that includes information on at least one of the following: the purported link between abortion and breast cancer (5 states), the ability of a fetus to feel pain (12 states) or long-term mental health consequences for the woman (7 states). 205

"State Abortion Laws: A Survey." n.d. Michigan State University. <https://www.msu.edu/user/schwenkl/abtrbng/stablw.htm>. "State Abortion Laws." n.d. FindLaw. <http://statelaws.findlaw.com/family-laws/abortion.html>. 202 ibid 203 "State Abortion Laws: A Survey." n.d. Michigan State University. <https://www.msu.edu/user/schwenkl/abtrbng/stablw.htm>. 204 ibid 205 "State Abortion Laws." n.d. FindLaw. <http://statelaws.findlaw.com/family-laws/abortion.html>. 200 201

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Waiting Periods: 26 states require a woman seeking an abortion to wait a specified period of time, usually 24 hours, between when she receives counseling and the procedure is performed. 10 of these states have laws that effectively require the woman make two separate trips to the clinic to obtain the procedure. 206



Parental Involvement: 38 states require some type of parental involvement in a minor’s decision to have an abortion. 25 states require one or both parents to consent to the procedure, while 13 require that one or both parents be notified and 5 states require both parental consent and notification. 207

IV.

The Debate on Abortion: a) Proponents (Pro-Choice): The ability of a woman to have control of her body is critical to civil rights.



Nearly all abortions take place in the first trimester, when a fetus cannot exist independently out the mother. As it is attached by the placenta and umbilical cord, its health is dependent on her health, and cannot be regarded as a separate entity.



A woman's risk of dying from having an abortion is 0.6 in 100,000, while the risk of dying from giving birth is around 14 times higher.



The US Supreme Court has declared abortion to be a "fundamental right" guaranteed by the US Constitution.



Fetuses are incapable of feeling pain when most abortions are performed.



Access to legal, professionally-performed abortions reduces maternal injury and death caused by unsafe, illegal abortions.



Legal abortion eliminates the risks of self abortion which is a very dangerous operation, in which the woman abort the child herself at home.

206



207

ibid ibid

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

Abortion gives pregnant women the option to choose not to bring fetuses with profound abnormalities to full term.



Reproductive choice protects women from financial disadvantage.



A baby should not come into the world unwanted.



Abortion is justified as a means of population control.



Putting a child into the foster care system the child will not get enough attention.



Since 1973, roughly 50 million legal induced abortions have been performed in the United States, if abortion was illegal; most of these woman lives could have been endangered by illegal abortion or self abortion.

b) Opponents (Pro-Life): 

Abortion is murder.



Life begins at conception, so unborn babies are human beings.



Abortion is the killing of a human being, which defies the word of God.



Abortions reduce the number of adoptable babies; around 2.6 million American women were trying to adopt children as of 2002, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services.



Women should not be able to use abortion as a form of contraception.



In the instance of rape and incest, proper medical care can ensure that a woman will not get pregnant. Abortion punishes the unborn child who committed no crime; instead, it is the perpetrator who should be punished.

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

For women who demand complete control of their body, control should include preventing the risk of unwanted pregnancy through the responsible use of contraception.



Those who choose abortions are often minors or young women with insufficient life experience to understand fully what they are doing. Many have lifelong regrets afterwards.



Abortion interferes with the natural order.



Abortion promotes a culture in which human life is disposable.



Abortion disproportionately affects African American babies; the African-American community bears a disproportionate number of these abortions. Although blacks make up 13% of the US population, black women have some 36% of the abortions. A Black baby is 5 times more likely to be killed in the womb than a White Baby.

Religions on Abortion: Judaism: Judaism does not forbid abortion, but it does not permit abortion on demand. Abortion is only permitted for serious reasons; Judaism expects every case to be considered on its own merits and the decision to be taken after consultation with a rabbi competent to give advice on such matters, the only scriptural mention of anything like an abortion, does not treat it as murder. Jewish tradition allows for abortion for the sake of the mother because there is no soul in the first 40 days, and even in the latter stages of pregnancy, the fetus has a lower moral status than the mother. In some cases, it may even be a sacred duty.

Christianity: 

Church of England: The Church of England views abortion as a grave moral wrong. As the 1980 statement of the Board of Social Responsibility put it: ''In the light of our conviction that the fetus has the right to live and develop as a member of the human family, we see abortion, the termination of that life by the act of man, as a great moral evil. We do not believe that the right to life, as a right pertaining to persons, admits of no exceptions whatever; but the right of the innocent to life admits surely of few exceptions indeed''

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Roman Catholic: The Roman Catholic Church says that deliberately causing an abortion is a grave moral wrong; it bases this doctrine on natural law and on the written word of God

ď&#x201A;ˇ

The Orthodox Churches: Generally, the Orthodox Churches forbid abortion as going against the commandment 'Thou shalt not kill'. The Russian Orthodox Church condemned abortion.

Islam: Islam regards abortion as wrong and as sort of murder, but only allows it in case of saving the woman's life, the Qur'an does not explicitly refer to abortion but offers guidance on related matters. Scholars accept that this guidance can properly be applied to abortion, and some scholars accept the abortion at the first 40 days as it is thought that the fetus is soul less, but this period is also debatable as some Islamic scholars claim that the fetus acquires the soul after 120 days. The Islamic view is based on the very high priority the faith gives to the sanctity of life in which the Qur'an states '' Whosoever has spared the life of a soul, it is as though he has spared the life of all people. Whosoever has killed a soul, it is as though he has murdered all of mankind''. But it's clear in cases of abortion because of financial reasons, in such case the Qur'an states ''Kill not your offspring for fear of poverty; it is we who provide for them and for you. Surely, killing them is a great sin''.

VI.

Abortion Internationally: United Nations Rights of the Child: The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC), like the United Nations Declaration of the Rights of the Child which preceded it, is very clear in stating that the rights and legal protection of children are paramount in both born and pre-born children. The preamble from the UNCRC states, "Bearing in mind that, as indicated in the Declaration of the Rights of the Child, "the child, by reason of his physical and mental immaturity, needs special safeguards and care, including appropriate legal protection, before as well as after birth".208

208

"Convention on the Rights of the Child." n.d. UNICEF. <http://www.unicef.org/crc/>.

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Germany: In Germany, the abortion procedure is also legal up to 12 week gestation but, with restrictions. The regulations state that abortion is allowed in the first trimester if the woman is declared to be in a state of stress. It is interesting to note that this determination is made only after a mandatory counselling appointment and a compulsory 3 day waiting period. Abortion is also available (without counselling) to women whose pregnancy has resulted from a sexual crime committed against them. Post 12 weeks gestation, German law allows for abortions only to avert the danger of a grave impairment of the physical or emotional state of health of the pregnant woman.209

France: In France, abortions are legal up to 12 weeks gestation (gestation begins at conception), but only if the woman is judged by her doctor to be in a â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;state of distressâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; because of her pregnancy. After 12 weeks, an abortion can only be carried out if the continuation of the pregnancy poses a serious risk to the health of the woman, or if there is a strong possibility that the child in the womb will suffer from an incurable disease.210

Latin America: Abortion is allowed on request in [Cuba-Uruguay-Guyana].Explicitly allowed in order to save a life and for certain other reasons in [Argentina-Bolivia-Colombia- Peru-Ecuador]. Abortion not allowed or highly restricted in [Chile-Brazil-Paraguay-Venezuela].

209 210

"The World's Abortion Laws." 2015. Center for Reproductive Rights. <http://worldabortionlaws.com/map/>. "The World's Abortion Laws." 2015. Center For Reproductive Rights. <http://worldabortionlaws.com/map/>.

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B. Euthanasia I.

Introduction: As in the United States, euthanasia and assisted-suicide advocates will continue to push their agenda throughout the world to make death-on-demand acceptable and legal. Often such advocates hold positions of great influence. Many are known as experts in medical ethics.

II.

What is Euthanasia? a) Definition: Euthanasia is the painless killing of a patient suffering from an incurable and painful disease or in an irreversible coma. It’s a death free of any anxiety and pain in which a doctor or a third party is involved. And it’s intentional killing, because if death is not intended, it is not an act of euthanasia.211 The origin of the word is Greek. Euthanasia is "an easy or happy death," from EU meaning "good" and Thanatos meaning "death". Euthanasia is also known as "mercy killing''.212

b) Types of Euthanasia: Active Euthanasia: To end a person’s life using drugs, either by oneself or with the help of a physician and this is also called Euthanasia by Action which means intentionally causing a person's death by performing an action such as by giving a lethal injection.213 Passive Euthanasia: To end a person’s life by simply trying to stop the ordinary actions that maintains life. Passive euthanasia can be achieved by failing to treat or by withholding or withdrawing water, food, drugs, medical or surgical procedures. Passive euthanasia occurs when the patient dies because the medical professionals either do not do something necessary to keep the patient alive, or when they stop doing something that is keeping the patient alive214. For example: 

Not carrying out a life-extending operation



Not giving life-extending drugs



Withdrawing life-support machines

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failing to keep their feeding tube going This is also called Euthanasia by Omission which means intentionally causing death by not providing necessary and ordinary care or food and water.215

Euthanasia [article] Contemporary Readings in Law and Social Justice, Vol. 4, Issue 2 (2012), pp. 474-483 by Diaconescu, Amelia Mihaela 212 "Definition of Euthanasia." n.d. MedicineNet.com. <http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=7365>. 213 "Euthanasia Definitions." n.d. Euthanasia.com. <http://www.euthanasia.com/definitions.html>. 214 Extending the Practice of Passive Euthanasia - Re R [notes] Nottingham Law Journal, Vol. 5, Issue 1 (1996), pp. 80-86 215 ibid 211

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Many people make a moral distinction between active and passive euthanasia. They believe that it is acceptable to withhold treatment and allow a patient to die, but that it is never acceptable to kill a patient by a deliberate act. Some medical people think this idea allows them to provide a patient with the death they want without having to deal with the difficult moral problems they would face if they deliberately killed that person. But some people think this distinction is nonsense, since stopping treatment is a deliberate act, and so is deciding not to carry out a particular treatment. Voluntary Euthanasia: When the person who dies has requested to die216. This includes cases of: 

Asking for help with dying.



Refusing burdensome medical treatment.



Asking for medical treatment to be stopped or life support machines to be switched off.



Refusing to eat.

Non-Voluntary Euthanasia: When the person who is killed made no request and gave no consent. This is where the person is unable to ask for euthanasia, perhaps they are unconscious or unable to communicate. Or to make a meaningful choice between living and dying and an appropriate person takes the decision on their behalf, perhaps in accordance with their living will, or previously expressed wishes217. This includes cases where: 

The person is in a coma.



The person is senile.



The person is severely brain damaged.



The person is mentally disturbed in such a way that they should be protected from themselves.

Involuntary Euthanasia: When the person who is killed made an expressed wish to the contrary. This occurs when the person who dies wants to live but is killed anyway. It is usually the same thing as murder.

c) Important Definitions: Doctrine of Double Effect: Ethical theory that allows the use of drugs that will shorten life, if the primary aim is only to reduce pain. So it's not euthanasia to give a drug in order to reduce Voluntary Euthanasia [article] Washington Law Review, Vol. 45, Issue 2 (April 1970), pp. 239-272 Non-Voluntary Passive Euthanasia: The Social Consequences of Euphemisms [article] European Journal of Health Law, Vol. 14, Issue 3 (2007), pp. 221-240, Sayers, Gwen M. 216 217

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pain, even though the drug causes the patient to die sooner. This is because the doctor's intention was to relieve the pain, not to kill the patient.218 DNR: Abbreviation for Do Not Resuscitate. It’s the instructions telling medical staff not to attempt to resuscitate the patient if the patient has a heart attack. Competence: A competent patient is one who understands his or her medical condition, what the likely future course of the disease is, and the risks and benefits associated with the treatment of the condition; and who can communicate their wishes. d) History of Euthanasia: The rise of the euthanasia movement in the United States coincided with the so-called Gilded Age – a time of social and technological change. It was also a time that saw the development of the modern hospital system, seen as a factor in the emergence of the euthanasia debate. At 1828, the first US Statute Outlawing Assisted Suicide was enacted in New York. Then many of the new States and Territories followed New York's example. By 1868 the Fourteenth Amendment was ratified, it was a crime in most States to assist a suicide.219 Robert Ingersoll argued for euthanasia, stating in 1894 that where someone is suffering from a terminal illness, such as terminal cancer, they should have a right to end their pain through suicide. Felix Adler offered a similar approach, arguing from an Ethical Culture framework. In 1891, Alder argued that those suffering from overwhelming pain should have the right to commit suicide, and that it should be permissible for a doctor to assist – thus making Adler the first "prominent American" to argue for suicide in cases where people were suffering from chronic illness.220 America saw the first attempt to legalize euthanasia, when Henry Hunt introduced legislation into the General Assembly of Ohio in 1906. Hunt did so at the behest of Anna Hall, a wealthy heiress who was a major figure in the euthanasia movement during the early 20th century in the United States. Hall had watched her mother die after an extended battle with liver cancer, and had dedicated herself to ensuring that others would not have to endure the same suffering.221

"The doctrine of double effect." n.d. BBC. <http://www.bbc.co.uk/ethics/euthanasia/overview/doubleeffect.shtml>. Euthanasia: A Historical Overview [misc] Maryland Journal of Contemporary Legal Issues, Vol. 2, Issue 2 (Summer 1991), pp. 257-298, Marker, Rita L. ; Stranton, Joseph R. ; Recznik, Mark E. ; Fournier, Keith A. 2 Md. J. Contemp. Legal Issues 257 (1991) 220 ibid 221 Courts and Euthanasia, The [article] Law, Medicine and Health Care, Vol. 15, Issue 4 (Winter 1987-1988), pp. 223-230, Fletcher, Joseph, 15 L. Med. & Health Care 223 (1987-1988) 218 219

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Hunt's bill called for the administration of an anesthetic to bring about a patient's death, so long as the person is of lawful age and sound mind, and was suffering from a fatal injury, an irrecoverable illness or great physical pain. It also required that the case be heard by a physician, required informed consent in front of three witnesses, and then required the attendance of three physicians who had to agree that the patient's recovery was impossible. A motion to reject the bill outright was voted down, but the bill itself failed to pass. Along with the Ohio euthanasia proposal, 1906 also witnessed the creation of a second bill: a proposal was introduced to permit euthanasia to the Iowa legislature. However, the Iowa legislation was far broader in scope than that offered in Ohio. It allowed for the death of any person of at least ten years of age who suffered from an illness that would prove fatal and cause extreme pain, should they be of sound mind and express a desire to artificially hasten their death. It also allowed infants to be euthanized if they were sufficiently deformed and permitted guardians to request euthanasia on behalf of their wards. The proposed legislation also imposed penalties on physicians who refused to perform euthanasia when requested. Unsurprisingly, the proposal proved to be controversial. It engendered considerable debate but failed to pass, having been withdrawn from consideration after being passed to the Committee on Public Health.222 Along the 19th century, assisted suicide remained a grievous, though non-felonious, wrong. But in 1998 U.S. state of Oregon legalizes assisted suicide. In the 20th century, the States' assisted suicide bans have in recent years been reexamined and reaffirmed. Because of advances in medicine and technology, Americans today are increasingly likely to die in institutions, from chronic illnesses. Many States, for example, now permit "living wills," surrogate health care decision making, and the withdrawal or refusal of life sustaining medical treatment. At the same time, however, voters and legislators continue for the most part to reaffirm their States' prohibitions on assisting suicide.

e) The Controversy: ď&#x201A;ˇ Proponents: 1. It provides a way to relieve extreme pain. Those in favour of euthanasia argue that a civilized society should allow people to die in dignity and without pain, and should allow others to help them do so if they cannot manage it on their own. 2. It is another case of freedom of choice. Proponents of euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide (PAS) contend that terminally ill people should have the right to end their suffering with a quick, dignified, and compassionate death. They argue that the right to

222

ibid

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die is protected by the same constitutional safeguards that guarantee such rights as marriage, procreation, and the refusal or termination of life-saving medical treatment. 3. It provides a way of relief when a person's quality of life is low. Here we ask ourselves a very important question, should people be forced to stay alive? The answer is No. And neither the law nor medical ethics requires that "everything be done" to keep a person alive. Insistence, against the patient's wishes, that death be postponed by every means available is contrary to law and practice. It would also be cruel and inhumane. There comes a time when continued attempts to cure are not compassionate, wise, or medically sound. That's where hospice, including in-home hospice care, can be of such help. That is the time when all efforts should be placed on making the patient's remaining time comfortable. Then, all interventions should be directed to alleviating pain and other symptoms as well as to the provision of emotional and spiritual support for both the patient and the patient's loved ones. 4. Frees up medical funds to help other people. By performing euthanasia, we are giving other patient hope and we are making more funds to help them be cured.

ď&#x201A;ˇ Opponents: Opponents of euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide contend that doctors have a moral responsibility to keep their patients alive as reflected by the Hippocratic Oath. They argue there may be a "slippery slope" from euthanasia to murder, and that legalizing euthanasia will unfairly target the poor and disabled and create incentives for insurance companies to terminate lives in order to save money. 1. Euthanasia would not only be for people who are "terminally ill". The first problem is the definition of the word "terminal" and the changes that have already taken place to extend euthanasia to those who aren't "terminally ill." There are many definitions for the word "terminal." For example, it could mean "any disease that curtails life even for a day." Or some laws define "terminal" condition as one from which death will occur in a "relatively short time." Others state that "terminal" means that death is expected within six months or less. Even where a specific life expectancy (like six months) is referred to, medical experts acknowledge that it is virtually impossible to predict the life expectancy of a particular patient. Some people diagnosed as terminally ill don't die for years, if at all, from the diagnosed condition. Increasingly, however, euthanasia activists have dropped references to terminal illness, replacing them with such phrases as "hopelessly ill," "desperately ill," "incurably ill," "hopeless condition," and "meaningless life." 2. Euthanasia can become a mean of health care cost containment. Perhaps one of the most important developments in recent years is the increasing emphasis placed on health 141

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care providers to contain costs. In such a climate, euthanasia certainly could become a means of cost containment. In the United States, thousands of people have no medical insurance; studies have shown that the poor and minorities generally are not given access to available pain control, and managed-care facilities are offering physicians cash bonuses if they don't provide care for patients. With greater and greater emphasis being placed on managed care, many doctors are at financial risk when they provide treatment for their patients. Euthanasia raises the potential for a profoundly dangerous situation in which doctors could find themselves far better off financially if a seriously ill or disabled person "chooses" to die rather than receive long-term care. 3. Legalizing euthanasia and assisted suicide leads to suicide contagion. When the media portrays assisted suicide as a means of “taking control” or claims that someone helping another person kill himself is “death with dignity,” then society (including teenagers) is receiving the dangerous message that suicide is a legitimate answer to life's problems. 4. Euthanasia is a rejection of the importance and value of human life. People who support euthanasia often say that it is already considered permissible to take human life under some circumstances such as self-defense - but they miss the point that when one kills for self-defense they are saving innocent life - either their own or someone else's. With euthanasia no one's life is being saved - life is only taken.

VII.

Introduction to Physician Assisted Suicide (PAS): a) Definition: Someone provides an individual with the information, guidance, and means to take his or her own life with the intention that they will be used for this purpose. When it is a doctor who helps another person to kill themselves it is called "physician assisted suicide." For example: Suicide achieved with the help of a medical doctor who is intentionally providing a person with an overdose of prescription medication or by prescribing some pills and stating their fatal dosage.223 It is voluntary passive euthanasia. In this situation, a physician supplies information and/or the means of committing suicide for example: a prescription for lethal dose of sleeping pills or a supply of carbon monoxide gas to a person, so that that individual can successfully terminate his or her own life.224

b) Difference between Euthanasia and Physician Assisted Suicide: The main difference between euthanasia and physician assisted suicide ''PAS'' is the provider or the administrator of the dosage of the medicine, in the case of PAS the administrator of the dosage must be a medical doctor. Involuntary Passive Euthanasia in U.S. Courts: Reassessing the Judicial Treatment of Medical Futility Cases [article] Marquette Elder's Advisor, Vol. 9, Issue 2 (Spring 2008), pp. 229-268, Pope, Thaddeus Mason 224 ibid 223

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Physician-assisted suicide is a form of voluntary euthanasia. In other words, it involves a patient voluntarily acting to end his or her life. Physician-assisted suicide differs from conventional suicide in that it is facilitated by a physician who confirms the patient's diagnosis, rules out conditions such as depression that may be clouding the patient's judgment, and finally provides the means for committing suicide. Such action usually consists of taking a lethal overdose of prescription medication. Critics of physician-assisted suicide use the familiar "slippery slope" argument, proposing that once physician-assisted suicide is legalized, other forms of euthanasia will more likely be practiced as well. They see assisted suicide as potentially leading to situations in which elderly, chronically ill, and handicapped people, along with others, are killed through active, nonvoluntary euthanasia. Related to this idea is the view that widespread practice of physicianassisted suicide might claim the lives of those whose intolerable suffering is caused by treatable depression.

VIII.

Legality of Euthanasia and (PAS): a) Euthanasia Laws in the US: Euthanasia is illegal in all states of the United States. Active euthanasia is illegal in most of the United States. Patients retain the rights to refuse medical treatment and to receive appropriate management of pain at their request (passive euthanasia); even if the patients' choices hasten their deaths. b) Physician-assisted Suicide Laws in the US: Assisted suicide is legal in the states of Washington, Oregon, Vermont. ď&#x201A;ˇ

ď&#x201A;ˇ ď&#x201A;ˇ

Oregon: The Death with Dignity Act was implemented in 1997. The law allows patients with terminally ill or hopelessly ill conditions to request for lethal medication. The requirements are that the patient must have made two verbal requests and another in writing with a witness for the doctors to end his or her life. Two doctors also need to agree on the diagnosis, the prognosis of the disease and the capability of the patient. The patient will have to personally administer the medication.225 Washington: In 2008 the Washington Death with Dignity Act passed. This law is similar to the law of Oregon and has the same requirements for the performance of (PAS).226 Vermont: In 2013 act 39 of the End of Life Choices passed. This Act also had the same conditions as the two acts of Oregon and Washington.227

225

"Where Is Euthanasia Legal?" n.d. New Health Guide. <http://www.newhealthguide.org/Where-Is-EuthanasiaLegal.html>. 226 227

ibid ibid

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In Montana and New Mexico (Bernalillo County only) there are judicial decisions that opened the door of physician-assisted suicide. 

Montana: Montana First Judicial District Court decided in the case of dubbed Baxter v. Montana that “a competent patient had the right to die with dignity”. The law allows the physician to assist the patient by providing prescription lethal medication which the patient will take on their own. Which give any physician who is prosecuted for assisted suicide the chance to raise a defense of consent, because prosecutions and convictions for assisted suicide remain possible in Montana.228



New Mexico (Bernalillo County only): According to a court decision, physicians can now help terminal patients die, and they will not prosecuted under the state’s assisted suicide law.229

Other states: 39 states have legislated against physician-assisted suicide, while three other states and the District of Columbia have cited it as a crime under Common Law. And there is four states that have no specific laws regarding assisted suicide, may not recognize common law. 230The Ohio state supreme court, however, ruled in 1996 that assisted suicide is not a crime.

VII.

International Perspective on Euthanasia and Physician Assisted Suicide231: The world medical community considers both euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide to be in conflict with basic ethical principles of medical practice. The World Medical Association, with members representing medical associations (including the American Medical Association) from eighty-two countries, has adopted strong resolutions condemning both practices and urging all national medical associations and physicians to refrain from participating in them even if national law allows or decriminalizes the practices. The debate surrounding euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide in the United States has been influenced by medical practices in other countries, particularly: Netherlands: Netherlands legalized both active euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide, in April 2001 (effective 2002). Physician-assisted suicide in the Netherlands is conducted within strict guidelines that include the following requirements: 1. the patient's request for assisted suicide must be voluntary, 2. the patient must be experiencing intolerable suffering, "State-by-State Guide to Physician-Assisted Suicide." n.d. ProCon.org. <http://euthanasia.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000132> 229 ibid 230 "State-by-State Guide to Physician-Assisted Suicide." n.d. ProCon.org. <http://euthanasia.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000132> 231 "Assisted Suicide & Death with Dignity: Past, Present & Future – Part III." n.d. Patients Rights Council. <http://www.patientsrightscouncil.org/site/rpt2005-part3/>. 228

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3. all other alternatives for treatment must have been explored 4. The physician must consult another independent physician before proceeding. A study commissioned by the Dutch government indicated that, in 2001, about 3,500 deaths, or 2.5 percent of the 140,000 death cases that were reported in the Netherlands that year, occurred by active euthanasia. Figures also indicated that 300 deaths, or 0.2 percent, were caused by physician-assisted suicide. The European Union: In deciding a physician-assisted suicide case, the European Court of Human Rights found that its “prohibition on the use of lethal force or other conduct that might lead to the death of a human being did not confer any claim on an individual to require a State to permit or facilitate his or her death.”The European Court judges described the prohibition as a measure intended to protect the weak and the vulnerable. Belgium: The Belgian parliament legalized euthanasia on 28th May, 2002. A survey published in 2010 reported that those who died from euthanasia, compared with other deaths, were more often younger, male, cancer patients and more often died in their homes. In almost all cases, unbearable physical suffering was reported. Euthanasia for non-terminal patients was rare. Embrace of euthanasia by medical professionals has led to the formulation of more convenient ways to end patients’ live. In early 2005, a pharmaceutical company announced that home “euthanasia kits” would be available soon in more than two hundred Belgian pharmacies so that doctors could carry out in-home deaths with greater ease. Reports indicated that the kits will contain a barbiturate, a paralyzing agent, an anesthetic, and instructions for use. United Kingdom: Euthanasia is against the law in the UK where it is illegal to help anyone kill themselves. Voluntary euthanasia or physician-assisted suicide can lead to imprisonment of up to 14 years. Between 2003 and 2006 Lord Joffe made four attempts to introduce bills that would have legalized voluntary euthanasia - all were rejected by the UK Parliament. As of early 2005, no other countries have legalized either euthanasia or physician-assisted suicide.

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Religions on Euthanasia and Physician-Assisted Suicide: The relationship between death and religion is very interesting and played a vital role through ages in explaining the phenomenon of death. Death was never the end of story for religion.

a) Christianity: Churches emphasize the importance of not interfering with the natural process of death. No human being has the authority to take the life of any innocent person, even if that person wants to die, the process of dying is spiritually important, and should not be disrupted. Both Catholicism and Protestantism reject the euthanasia.

b) Judaism: The Jewish tradition regards the preservation of human life as one of its supreme moral values and forbids doing anything that might shorten life. Generally, Jewish thinkers oppose voluntary euthanasia, often vigorously. But within the Conservative Judaism movements, there has been increasing support for passive euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide. All life is of infinite value, regardless of its duration or quality. Jewish law says that doctors and patients have a duty to preserve life, and a doctor must do everything he or she can to save a patient's life - even if the patient doesn't want them to, as for active euthanasia, Jewish law forbids active euthanasia and regards it as murder. However, according to the Judaism, doctors should not make dying last any longer if the person experiences serious pain. It is acceptable to ask God in prayer to remove a person from their pain and suffering.

c) Islam: All kinds of suicide are forbidden in Islam and are not accepted under any circumstances. In Islam, god promised special place in heaven for the people who tolerate and live with pain. Muslims believe that â&#x20AC;&#x153;the lives of human beingsâ&#x20AC;? are valued and sacred as it is given by Allah and that Allah is the only one who decides how long each person will live. However, According to the Islamic Medical Ethics, it is the process of life that the doctor should maintain and not the process of dying. In other words, doctors have the right to stop trying to prolong life in cases where there is no hope of a cure.

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Third Topic: Cyber-bullying I.

Introduction..................................................................................... 148

II.

What is Cyber-bullying? ................................................................ 148 a. Definition ....................................................................................... b. The History Behind Cyber-bullying ..............................................

III.

Legal Aspect: ................................................................................... 149 a. The First Amendment .................................................................... b. The Supreme Court on Cyber-bullying.......................................... c. State Law ........................................................................................

IV.

The Effect of Cyber-bullying ......................................................... 151

Important cases ............................................................................... 153

VI.

On the International Level............................................................. 156

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Third Topic: Cyber-bullying I.

Introduction: Bullying has been engrained in American society since the country’s founding. Bred from a capitalistic economy and competitive social hierarchy, bullying has remained a relevant issue through the years. Technological bullying, known today as cyberbullying, has allowed the problem to expand, become more elusive, and even harder to define.

II.

What is Cyber bullying? a) Definition: In order to know what is cyber bullying, the definition of “Bullying” Should be addressed. Bullying is any undesirable and aggressive act - Mostly among children- that involves an imbalance of power and that has a repetitive character. Threats, spreading rumors, attacking someone- whether verbally or physically- and deliberately excluding someone from group are kinds of bullying.232 Cyber-bullying refers to any harassment that occurs via the internet (social sites, text messages, chat, and websites.), cell phones, computers, tablets or other devices. Communication technology is used to intentionally harm others through hostile behavior such as sending text messages and posting ugly comments on the internet.233 The National Crime Prevention Council defines cyber-bullying as “the process of using the Internet, cell phones or other devices to send or post text or images intended to hurt or embarrass another person.”234 Cyber-bullying could be limited to posting rumors or gossips about a person in the internet bringing about hatred in other’s minds; or it may go to the extent of personally identifying victims and publishing materials severely defaming and humiliating them.235 Unlike traditional bullying, cyber-bullying allows the offender to mask his or her identity behind a computer. This anonymity makes it easier for the offender to strike blows against a victim without having to see the victim’s physical response.

Examples of Cyber bullying:  Text messages  Emails  Rumors sent through networking sites.  Embarrassing pictures, videos or websites.

"Bullying Definition." n.d. Stopbullying.gov. <http://www.stopbullying.gov/what-is-bullying/definition/index.html>. "What is Cyberbullying." n.d. Stopbullying.gov. <http://www.stopbullying.gov/cyberbullying/what-is-it/>. 234 "Cyber Bullying Law & Legal Definition." n.d. US Legal. <http://definitions.uslegal.com/c/cyber-bullying/>. 235 ibid 232 233

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 Using Fake profiles.

b) The History behind Cyber bullying: As technology has evolved, bullying has proliferated. With the advent of the Internet, chat rooms soon followed. Chat rooms were supplemented by AOL Instant Messenger (AIM), an online communication program that allowed teens to spend hours talking to one another in private, oneon-one conversations or in public chat rooms. The program further allowed youth to create group-specific chat rooms. This exclusive forum allowed for youth to get together with select groups of friends and talk about the latest gossip. Further progress on the Internet brought about more and more websites and with this came the advent of social media. With the rise of Facebook, twitter, and other pioneering social media platforms, cyber-bullying became frequent and the rates kept rising. According to the Cyberbullying Research Center, cyber-bullying victimization rates achieved a mean of 27.32 percent based on 7 different studies from May 2007-Feb. 2010.236 Cyber-bullying cases kept increasing from Tinker vs. Des Moines case in 1969 to Justin J. Boucher v. School Board of the School District of Greenfield case237 in 1998 when a boy created a website and included threatening messages statements about his teacher and the principal. And cases kept increasing till it became a necessity to discuss this phenomena nationwide.

III.

Legal Aspect: a) The First Amendment: The first amendment of the United States constitution says “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances”.238 Since this amendment protects the right to freedom of expression to all Americans from any restriction that may be set by lawmakers. The main problem became whether cyber-bullying is legally considered as freedom of speech or a disruptive conduct. The infringement on student’s 1st Amendment rights is what originally sparked heated controversies concerning schools limiting what students could do or say on or off school grounds. Throughout history, the United States has been shaped by the public’s right to freely express their opinions. Inevitably, when a case arises attempting to limit these rights, the plaintiff’s side is often hard to argue due to such a strong tradition. Without limiting constitutional rights, lawmakers had to grapple with the difficult task of defining cyber-bullying, Donegan*, Richard. "Bullying and Cyberbullying: History, Statistics, Law, Prevention and Analysis." n.d. Strategic Communication - Elon University. <https://www.elon.edu/docs/eweb/academics/communications/research/vol3no1/04DoneganEJSpring12.pdf>. 237 "BOUCHER v. SCHOOL BOARD OF THE SCHOOL DISTRICT OF GREENFIELD." 9 January 1998. FindLaw. <http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-7th-circuit/1129278.html>. 238 "U.S. Constitution: First Amendment." n.d. Cornell University Law School. <https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/first_amendment>. 236

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as well as determining proper sanctions for committing the act. Because of this, many cases dealing with freedom of speech on and off school grounds have worked their way up to the United States Supreme Court.

b) The Supreme Court on Cyber-bullying: Although that the Supreme Court did not hear any case regarding cyber bullying, there were some case regarding Bullying in general, and other cases that had elements of cyber-bullying. 

Tinker vs. Des Moines (1969) One of the earliest cases that dealt with this issue on a public school campus was Tinker vs. Des Moines in 1969. In this case, three high school students arrived on campus wearing black armbands, symbolically protesting the Vietnam War. The school’s administration told the students that they must remove the armbands, and if they refused to do so they would be suspended. The students refused and were sent home. They took the case to court, arguing that their 1st Amendment rights had been violated by the school. The case eventually made it to the United States Supreme Court. 239 The court ruled that any school preventing the expression of opinion must prove that the prohibition was enforced “to avoid substantial interference with school discipline or the rights of others”. Because the school was unable to prove either of these factors, the suspensions were considered unconstitutional and the court ruled in favor of the students. 240 This case set the first guidelines for what forms of expression public schools could and could not limit.

 Doninger v. Niehoff (2011): Avery Doninger, a 17-years-old girl that was class secretary at her high school. After the cancellation of an event, she referred to school officials as “douchebags” in her personal blog. She was punished by the prohibition from running for class office in her senior year. The Second Circuit agreed with the school’s response to her posts. On October 31, 2011, the United States Supreme Court declined to grant certiorari241 on Ms. Doninger's appeal.242

 J.S. v. Blue Mountain School District (2012): Jill Snyder was an eighth grade student when she created a fake profile of her principal. Her comments were sexual in nature and the school gave her a ten-day suspension. The ruling by the federal court was that the school could discipline lewd and vulgar offcampus speech that had an effect on campus, even if this effect didn't amount to a "substantial disruption" under Tinker case. On 17th of January 2012, The Supreme Court denied the School District's Petition for Certiorari.

Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District, 393 U.S. 503 (1969) ibid 241 If an appellate court has the power to review cases at its discretion, certioari is the formal instrument by which that power gets used. A writ of certiorari orders a lower court to deliver its record in a case so that the higher court may review it. The U.S. Supreme Court uses certiorari to pick most of the cases that it hears. 242 Doninger v. Niehoff, 527 F.3d 41 (2d Cir. 2008) 239 240

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The possibility of the constitutionality of any law that restricts the freedoms of the first amendment as freedom of expression is still ambiguous even after the several rulings by Federal courts and the comments of the Supreme court.

c) State Law: On the state level:

IV.



49 states have bullying laws; all but Montana.



48 States include Electronic harassment. e.g. Albama, Maryland, and New Mexico.



20 states have laws that include Cyberbullying. e.g. California, Florida, and Oregon.



14 states have criminal sanctions. e.g. Nevada, Tennessee, and Wisconsin243

The Effect of Cyber-bullying: At first, one may believe that the effects of cyber-bullying are limited to initial responses that tend to fade within a few days or a week, at most. However, research indicates that the harm inflicted by cyber-bullying has many implications and can result in a snowball effect of lasting painful emotions and negative impacts. Although that the effects of cyber bullying varies according to individuals, however some researches show general effects, for example; The Increase feelings of sadness, loneliness and depression, changes in sleep patterns, loss of interest in activities as well as more health complaints. For students who are bullied, they tend to skip and drop schools, they tend to receive poor grades, they tend to have low self-esteem and sometimes, the problem escalates while using alcohol and drugs.244 As discussed in the vital cases, cyber bullying actually can lead to a suicide. Those who are bullied tend to have suicidal thoughts245. I n a matter of fact, Bullying affect everyone, those who are bullied, those who bully, and those who witness bullying. Moreover, those who bully are most likely to abuse alcohol and other drugs, have criminal records and traffic citations as adults. Those who witness Bullying are most likely to addict also, increase mental health problems, including depression and anxiety as well.246

Gender and bullying Though many students tend to deny the emotional harm caused by cyber-bullying tactics such as name-calling, rumor spreading, and teasing, research suggests the opposite. In a study that utilized a sample of over 3,000 students, researchers found that “38 percent of bully victims felt vengeful, 37 percent were angry and 24 percent felt helpless.” Furthermore, in a study conducted by the Cyber-bullying Research Center involving a sample size of 468 students revealed that "Bullying and Cyberbullying Laws." n.d. Cyberbullying.US. <http://www.cyberbullying.us/Bullying_and_Cyberbullying_Laws.pdf>. 244 "Cyberbullying Effects." n.d. Fund for Civility, Respect and Understanding. <http://fundforcivility.org/cyberbullyingeffects/>. 245 "What is Cyberbullying." n.d. Stopbullying.gov. <http://www.stopbullying.gov/cyberbullying/what-is-it/>. 246 "Effects of Bullying." n.d. Stopbullying.gov. <http://www.stopbullying.gov/at-risk/effects/index.html>. 243

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females are typically more emotionally affected by cyber-bullying than males. The females in the study reported being frustrated (39.6%), angry (36%), and sad (25.2%) more often than males who reported lower percentages in each category (27.5%, 24.3%, 17.9% respectively). This is not surprising due to the fact, as mentioned earlier, that males have a reluctance to admit weaknesses especially from an emotional standpoint. In reality, one would expect males to be at least equal if not higher in emotional response concerning anger and frustration.247

Age and bullying In another study conducted by the Cyber-bullying Research Center, the emotional repercussions of cyber-bullying across age groups were observed. The study discovered that anger and frustration remain the dominant responses among senior and junior high students, but students at the elementary level are more likely to feel sad as a result of being bullied.248 This is likely because at a younger age children are not battling with the same kind of competitive social hierarchy typically found within upper level schools. So, rather than feeling the need to prove themselves among their peers students at the elementary level tend to well-up within the initial emotional responses to bullying. This points to the idea that younger children may keep their initial emotional responses to themselves rather than acting out. Unfortunately, regardless of the initial emotional reaction to bullying, these emotions have the ability to continue to develop, with serious clinical implications. A 2003 intensive survey study, which focused on the clinical effects of cyber-bullying, reported an increase in emotional distress specifically related to cyber-bullying. The study involving 512 professionals coming from psychology, psychiatry and social work backgrounds reported that for “one-third (34%) of these youth, the Internet problem played a primary role in the client’s treatment”. This evidence proves that cyber-bullying is having noticeable clinical effects on today’s youth.249 Research confirms that both bully victims as well as offenders are emotionally harmed by the act of cyber-bullying. In a fact sheet produced by the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, loneliness, humiliation, and insecurity were each reported as further manifestations of the initial emotional responses to the bullying process. These feelings have the potential to cause students to fear going to school. This constant instability makes it difficult for bully victims to adjust socially and emotionally, focus on their studies, and develop in a healthy mental fashion. These responses can lead to more serious clinical implications, such as depression, which can continue to develop into even worse problems.250 The extreme consequences of bullying are suicidal thoughts or thoughts of violent revenge. According to a National Vital Statistics Report, suicide is the 3rd leading cause of death among youth ranging in age from 15 to 24.251 Furthermore, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reported “substantial increases in both homicide and suicide rates among males from 2000 to 2003”.252

(Hinduja & Patchin, 2009c, p.1). (Hinduja & Patchin, 2009c, p.1) 249 (Mitchell, Finelhot & Becker-Blease, 2007, p. 48). 250 (Ericson, 2001, pp. 1-2) 251 (Anderson & Smith, 2003) 252 (Fraizer, 2005) 247 248

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This statistic becomes chillingly relevant as more information is uncovered concerning the link between cyber-bullying and suicidal ideation or action. According to Rigby and Slee, “Youth who are bullied or who bully others, are at an elevated risk for suicidal thoughts, attempts, and completed suicides”.253 Statistically both victims of cyber-bullying as well as offenders proved to be much more likely to have attempted “bullycide,” the act of committing suicide due to the effects of bullying, than youth who had not been affected. There were a lot of Cyber Bullying cases involved suicides. A girl aged 13 that was called Megan Meier was bullied by a fictional online character created by adults and as a result, she hanged herself in the closet254. In September 2009, Hope Witsell hung herself from her canopy on her bed after one of the girls posted a photo of hers that was sent to her boyfriend on the internet. Another case was arrived when Amanda Todd killed herself after a serious of bullying attempts to her; someone took a screen shot of her image and posted it to a porn site, and sent the link to all of her Facebook friends. 255

Famous Cases: a) Ryan Halligan 1989 - 2003: Ryan Patrick Halligan, who was a 13 year old boy in Vermont, was constantly bullied by his classmates in school and also online. The story started when a girl in his school told him that she had a crush on him while talking online, after that he discovered lately that everyone knows the secrets he had been telling her online. Ryan, backed up with his father, tried to overcome the bullying, that he even started a friendship with one of his bullies, however by then, the bully used their conversations to spread a rumor and as a result, the social media profiles were attacking him, calling him “Gay”. It is reported that Ryan actually ran out once out of the classroom crying because of the harassments. Another incident is that, Ryan once told a girl in his school “Its girls like you who make me want to kill myself”. As she pretended to like him, she copied and pasted their private messages to all their schoolmates just to humiliate him. On October 7, 2003, Ryan hanged himself and committed suicide”. It was reported that Ryan researched ways to end his life online and because of this after the death of his son, Patrick Halligan decided to spend his life, lobbying and trying to pass laws against cyber bullying.256

b) The Megan Meier Case (1992 – 2006): The tragic story of 13 old year girl, Megan Meier, started through her MySpace page when a boy called “Josh Evans” wanted to add her as a friend. After telling her mother, Megan accepted the friendship request that later led to her death. Megan was heavy, she had attention deficit disorder and kept fighting against depression, her mental instability was one of the main reasons why she actually attached herself to this boy from the virtual world.

(Rigby & Slee, 1999, p. 119) "The Tragic Megan Meier Story." 28 May 2015. NoBullying. <http://nobullying.com/the-megan-meier-story/>. 255 "Timeline of the Amanda Todd cyberbullying case." 17 April 2014. VANCOUVER SUN. <http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Timeline+Amanda+Todd+cyberbullying+case/9750949/story.html>. 256 "RYAN'S STORY." n.d. RYAN'S STORY . <http://www.ryanpatrickhalligan.org/index.htm>. 253 254

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"Megan had a lifelong struggle with weight and self-esteem," her mother says.”And now she finally had a boy who she thought really thought she was pretty." Josh told Megan he was born in Florida, and moved to O’Fallon. He kept telling her about his family problems and how his father left them when he was 7 years old. He made it pretty clear that he has been struggling through his entire life. Getting closer and closer to Megan, when she asked him about his phone number he told her that he didn’t have a cell phone. Everything was going well between them until Sunday, Oct. 15, 2006, when Josh sent her a message saying "I don't know if I want to be friends with you anymore because I've heard that you are not very nice to your friends." Ever since then, her family had been trying to prohibit her from using her MySpace account because they were afraid from the cyber bullying attacks on their daughter. However, 3 weeks before her 14th Birthday, she got to reopen her MySpace account after the agreement of her parents, and discovered that they were posting extremely offensive bulletins about her. Megan went to her room, and then was found hanged in the closet. Later on, they found the last message from Josh that got her to kill herself. "Everybody in O'Fallon knows how you are. You are a bad person and everybody hates you. Have a shitty rest of your life. The world would be a better place without you." The end of the story is not there yet, when Megan’s parents tried to contact Josh Evans, they found that his MySpace account had been deleted. 6 weeks later, a neighbor told them that her daughter, same age as Megan had told her before that Josh Evans never existed. The fictional character was created by adults; those were the parents of Megan’s former friend. According to Megan’s mother, her daughter actually had been spending a lot of time with this family that they knew her psychological struggles. "I know that they did not physically come up to our house and tie a belt around her neck” But when adults are involved and continue to screw with a 13-year-old - with or without mental problems - it is absolutely vile. “She wanted to get Megan to feel like she was liked by a boy and let everyone know this was a false MySpace and have everyone laugh at her”. Following up, the Meires went through a divorce. The father blamed her Megan’s mother for not being good enough on monitoring her daughter on MySpace. Later on, the father was charged for a $1,000 and faced a misdemeanor of property damage. 257

c) Jessica Logan (1990 – 2008) Maybe another story, the story of Jessica Logan underlines the severity of cyber bullying; the story began when her Ex-boyfriend sent to everyone at her school a nude photo of her that she had sent to him before breaking up258. Ever since then, the other girls at her school had been harassing her for months, according to her mother “She was called filthy names, things thrown at her [...] Every single place she went they knew about that picture, they saw the picture. They knew about the picture! It's abuse. She was abused.” People used to throw things at her back then. Moreover, the reports sent from her mother and friends states that Jessica Logan had been skipping school or hiding in the bathroom just to avoid the harassments.

257

"MEGAN'S STORY." n.d. Megan Meier Foundation. <http://www.meganmeierfoundation.org/megansstory.html>. "Jessica Logan Suicide: Parents Of Dead Teen Sue School, Friends Over Sexting Harassment." 18 March 2010. The Huffington Post. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/07/jessica-logan-suicide-par_n_382825.html?>. 258

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Although that Jessica tried to contact the guidance counselors at her high school and the local police, however they could not stop the harassment. A month after her graduation from school and after attending a funeral of a teen, who had committed suicide, Jessica killed herself in July 2008 and hanged herself in her room. Afterwards, Jessica’s parents sued her ex-boyfriend, her school and some other teens. They were seeking damages for civil rights violations, the invasion of privacy, emotional distress and discrimination, according to the Courthouse News Services.259 On February 2012, a house Bill 116, known as the Jessica Logan Act, was signed by Ohio Governor John Kasich into law.260

d) The Tyler Clementi Case (1991 – 2010) Another story remarks the wide nation of cyber bullying, Tyler Clementi who was playing the violin from the third grade, performed in a lot of orchestras and received awards for his musical additions. The problem started when Tyler joined the Rutgers University and declared openly that he is homosexual. A college roommate placed a webcam, in order to spy on him that recorded an intimate act. Later on, the roommate invited other people to watch this scene online. A second attempt had been started on the social media, a lot of harassments happened and then, Tyler the 18 years old boy jumped off the George Washington Bridge on September 22, 2010 and killed himself . Few days later, a charge against Ravi and Molly Wei who spied on Tyler Clementi for the invasion of privacy. Ravi was convicted by a jury on 15 criminal charges and afterwards earned early release. An act called The Tyler Clementi Higher Education Anti-Harassment Act was introduced in the U.S Senate and the U.s House of Representatives.

e) The Amanda Todd Case (1996 – 2012): Another Canadian victim who is called Amanda Todd, posted her story on YouTube month before her suicide. Her story started when a stranger contacted her on Facebook, threatened her to share in appropriate photos for her if she didn’t obey sexually. Soon, her photo was sent to everyone. Although that she changed schools, the story kept hunting her; the attacker actually established a Facebook profile, using her picture as his profile picture. “"Cried every night, lost all my friends and respect people had for me... again... then nobody liked me," She said. After she moved to another school, a group of girls from her first school came and beat her. They filmed it, and as she wrote “"I was all alone and left on the ground." After she went back home that day, she tried to suicide and drank bleach. However she was rescued by doctors. After that, the bullying continued even though she moved to a new city. For her, even that she kept trying to resist but the bullying never stopped. Perhaps the description on her YouTube video underlines more her struggle “I'm struggling to stay in this world, because everything just touches me so deeply. I'm not doing this for attention. I'm doing this to be an inspiration and to show that I can be strong. I did things to myself to make pain go away, because I'd rather hurt myself then someone else. Haters are 259December

2009. Courthouse News Service. <http://www.courthousenews.com/2009/12/07/Teen_Hangs_Herself_After_Harassment_For_a_Sexting_Message_Parents_Say.ht m>. 260 "HB 116: The Jessica Logan Law." n.d. StateImpact. <http://stateimpact.npr.org/ohio/tag/hb-116/>.

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haters but please don't hate, although I’m sure I'll get them. I hope I can show you guys that everyone has a story, and everyone’s future will be bright one day, you just gotta pull through. I'm still here aren't I?” After her death, the social media witnessed huge manifestations, especially because of the video she posted. 261

VI.

On the International Level: Article 19 of Convention on the Rights of the Child262 states that “Children have the right to be protected from being hurt and mistreated, physically or mentally. Governments should ensure that children are properly cared for and protect them from violence, abuse and neglect by their parents or anyone else who looks after…” This means that it is the responsibility of the government to protect children from bullying. Article 13 of the same convention states that “Children have the right to get and share information, as long as the information is not damaging to them or others. In exercising the right to freedom of expression, children have the responsibility to also respect the rights, freedoms and reputations of others. The freedom of expression includes the right to share information in any way they choose, including by talking, drawing or writing”

Article 34 also states that “Governments should protect children from all forms of sexual exploitation and abuse. This provision in the Convention is augmented by the Optional Protocol on the sale of children, child prostitution and child pornography” The EU Agenda for the Rights of the Child263 affirmed that Bullying among children -whether physical or psychological violence- is a violation of children's rights. The Agenda included cyber bullying as well.

VII.

Future Options:

There exist two main legislative options for the future:  

Criminalizing Cyber-bullying federally. Giving schools wider authorities to monitor and punish cyber-bullying acts.

Grenoble, Ryan. "Amanda Todd: Bullied Canadian Teen Commits Suicide After Prolonged Battle Online And In School." 11 October 2012. The Huffington Post. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/11/amanda-todd-suicidebullying_n_1959909.html>. 262 "FACT SHEET: A summary of the rights under the Convention on the Rights of the Child." n.d. UNICEF. <http://www.unicef.org/crc/files/Rights_overview.pdf>. 263 "An EU Agenda for the Rights of the Child ." n.d. European Commission. <http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2011:0060:FIN:EN:PDF>. 261

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Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

Congressional Research Service Prepared By: Chairman Islam El-Sherif Ranking Member Rana El-Behairy

Party Consultant Menna Azmi

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Committeeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s History and Jurisdiction: The Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs is the chief oversight committee of the U.S. Senate. Its primary responsibilities are to study the efficiency, economy, and effectiveness of all agencies and departments of the federal government; evaluate the effects of laws enacted to reorganize the legislative and executive branches of government; and study the intergovernmental relationships between the U.S. and states and municipalities, and between the U.S. and international organizations of which the U.S. is a member. The year after passage of the Homeland Security Act of 2002, the Committee's name changed from the Governmental Affairs Committee to the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee as its jurisdiction expanded to include homeland security issues. In addition to governmental affairs, the Committee now oversees and receives legislation, messages, petitions, and memorials on all matters relating to the Department of Homeland Security and its agencies like the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Subcommittees of Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs: 1- Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI) 2- Financial and Contracting Oversight (FCO) 3- The Efficiency and Effectiveness of Federal Programs and the Federal Workforce (FPFW) 4- Emergency Management, Intergovernmental Relations and the District of Columbia (EMDC)

Chairman

Ranking Member

Ron Johnson Republican -Wisconsin

Tom Carper Democrat - Delaware

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“We maintain the peace through our strength; weakness only invites aggression.” Ronald Reagan

“Homeland security must protect citizens, not intrude on them.” Barack Obama.

MAC’15 Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: From the very first moment that Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs joined MAC’s academic family, it proved itself as one of the very fast developing committees which aimed at opening the Egyptian students’ minds to a totally different culture by targeting very heated domestic issues in the United States betting on the various abilities, the outstanding talents and the very high qualities of its carefully selected delegates to understand, discuss and introduce solutions to these cases. This year we are tackling two of the most crucial and heated issues; the first is Police Militarization and the second is Illegal Immigration & Border Security.

Special dedication: To the values of solidarity and integrity among people from different backgrounds. To the efforts exerted to satisfy and to get satisfied. To every single moment spent and every single challenge faced to make this year and this committee outstanding. To the Alumni, to MAC’15 High Board, to our fellow secretariats and most importantly to the extremely special honorable delegates of Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

HLS’15 Secretariats Team

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First Topic: The Warfare State I.

Introduction .......................................................................... 161

II.

Police Militarization ............................................................ 162 a) Historical Background ................................................. b) Mechanism of Police Militarization ............................ i. The 1033 Program: ............................................. ii. Homeland Security Grant Program (HSGP) ....... c) Weapons and Equipment ............................................. i. Types of arms and weapons granted to the police ii. Examples of military equipment giveaways...... d) Repercussions of Police Militarization ....................... i. WTO Riots: Seattle 1999 ................................... ii. Occupy Wall Street ............................................

III.

Private Military Contractors: Industry or Mercenary? .. 166

IV.

Case Study: Criminal Stereotype of African Americans 168 a) Evolution of African Americansâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Rights in the U.S. . i. Arriving to the U.S. ............................................. ii. African-Americans in the 19th Century.............. iii. African-Americans in the 20th Century.............. iv. Current Status ..................................................... b) Violence of African Americans .................................. i. Reasons of violence ........................................... ii. Gangs: ................................................................ c) Police Practices against African Americans ............... i. Missouri : The Unrest ......................................... ii. Baltimore: Crime of Indifference ....................... iii. Darrien Hunt: The Ugly Side of Cartoons .......... iv. Aiyana Jones: A victim of two murders: ............

Future Scenarios ................................................................... 179

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The Warfare State I.

Introduction “Police militarization is the process whereby civilian police increasingly draw from, and pattern themselves around, the tenets of militarism and the military model.” - Peter Kraska

Ferguson, Missouri Police264 Nowadays the state and the local security forces even in the very small neighborhoods with few thousands population look like the forces we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. These pictures of highly equipped police forces wearing caps and covers, riding in armored vehicles are not only for specific incidents, it represents a trend throughout the country of police militarization. Federal programs that provide military supply along with the departments’ own supply resulted in sending heavily armed teams in situations that never need violent intervention, a case that made police officers go beyond what is essential for their job which is protecting the community instead of terrifying it.

264

Cadet, Danielle. "9 Powerful Photos That Show Ferguson Is Pretty Much Being Treated Like A War Zone." 13 August 2014. The Huffington Post. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/13/fergusonphotos_n_5674573.html>.

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Police Militarization a) Historical Background The war on terror has come to The United States with its threats and dangers affecting the American citizens both physically and psychologically. Since the 1960s, the process of police militarization was in action due to the social unrest. However, President Reaganâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s era was the real beginning of militarizing the Police in order to initiate a war on drugs. The Creation and development of Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) teams took place and the Federal Government provided the civilian Police forces with military equipment and weaponry which worth billions of Dollars. The September 11th terrorist attacks were a turning point as it increased the fuel. Armor vehicles, Flash-Bang grenades and other heavy arms and weaponry are widely used by the State and local Police Departments. Nowadays the state and the local security forces even in the very small neighborhoods with few thousands population look like the forces we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. Although the main goal of militarizing specialized units in the police departments is to be prepared for dangerous situations like; fighting Al-Qaeda, or to stop drug cartels, and hostage situations, the consequences resulted in adopting these aggressive approaches in normal â&#x20AC;&#x201C;non dangerous- police operations.

b) Mechanism of Police Militarization i.

The 1033 Program:

The Department of Defense Excess Property Program, known as the 1033 Program, was issued by Congress in the National Defense Authorization Act for 1997. It authorizes the Secretary of Defense to provide material support to authorized federal and state law enforcement agencies in the form of transfers of articles suitable for use in counter-drug and counter-terrorism activities. These are drawn from Department of Defense (DOD) stocks deemed excess to military needs. It was preceded by 1990 legislation, Section 1208 of the National Defense Authorization Act for 1990 and 1991, which temporarily authorized transfers of defense equipment to law enforcement agencies for counter-drug enforcement use. The National Authorization Act of 1997 act made the authority permanent and expanded it to include counter-terrorism activities especially after the September 11th terrorist attacks.265 Although the program regulates the transfer of defense equipment to the police forces, the American Civil Liberties Union had some concerns over a certain clause in the program that urges the police to use the granted equipment within a year. The consequences of this clause may result in overuse of power, and abuse of this equipment in inappropriate situations. it means that if police departments want to keep their new gear, they can't wait for a rare emergency like an active shooter or hostage situation in order to use it. The union argues also about not including a clause in the program that guarantees an intensive training to the police Defense Logistics Agency. "The 1033 program: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)." n.d. <http://www.dispositionservices.dla.mil/leso/pages/1033programfaqs.aspx>. 265

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forces for using this equipment to control the crowd or the other uses that needs immediate intervention of the police forces. The Law Enforcement Support Office (LESO) of the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) administers the program. General categories of material offered by the LESO include office furniture, household goods (e.g., kitchen equipment), exercise equipment, portable electric generators, tents, and general law enforcement supplies (e.g., handcuffs, riot shields, holsters, binoculars, and digital cameras). Heavy equipment, such as cranes, and various types of land vehicles are also available. Watercraft, aircraft, and weapons are eligible for transfer. Other miscellaneous property includes tool kits, first aid kits, blankets and bedding, lawn maintenance supplies, combat boots, and office equipment (computers, printers, fax machines, etc.). According to the LESO, more than 8,000 agencies participate and have received more than $5.1 billion in property since the program's inception.266

ii.

Homeland Security Grant Program (HSGP)

The FY 2014 HSGP plays an important role in the implementation of the National Preparedness System by supporting the building, sustainment, and delivery of core capabilities essential to achieving the National Preparedness Goal (the Goal) of a secure and resilient Nation. The building, sustainment, and delivery of these core capabilities are not exclusive to any single level of government, organization, or community, but rather, require the combined effort of the whole community. The FY 2014 HSGP supports core capabilities across the five mission areas of Prevention, Protection, Mitigation, Response, and Recovery based on allowable costs. HSGP is comprised of three interconnected grant programs:267   

State Homeland Security Program (SHSP) Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) Operation Stonegarden (OPSG)

Together, these grant programs fund a range of preparedness activities, including planning, organization, equipment purchase, training, exercises, and management and administration. 1. State Homeland Security Program (SHSP) Total Funding Available in FY 2014: $401,346,000 Purpose: SHSP supports the implementation of risk driven, capabilities-based State Homeland Security Strategies to address capability targets set in Urban Area, State, and regional Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessments (THIRAs). The capability targets are established during the THIRA process, and assessed in the State Preparedness Report (SPR) and inform planning, organization, equipment, training, and exercise needs to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism and other catastrophic events. The “1033 Program,” Department of Defense, Support to Law Enforcement CRS Federal Emergency Management Agency. "Homeland Security Grant Program." 2 April 2015. <https://www.fema.gov/homeland-security-grant-program>. 266 267

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Eligible Applicants: The State Administrative Agency (SAA) was the only entity eligible to apply to FEMA for SHSP funds. Eligible applicants included all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

2. Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) Total Funding Available in FY 2014: $587,000,000 Purpose: The UASI program funds addressed the unique risk driven and capabilitiesbased planning, organization, equipment, training, and exercise needs of high-threat, high-density Urban Areas based on the capability targets identified during the THIRA process and associated assessment efforts; and assists them in building an enhanced and sustainable capacity to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism. Eligible Applicants: The SAA was the only entity eligible to apply to FEMA for UASI funds. A total of high-threat, high-density urban areas were eligible for funding under the FY 2014 UASI program. Eligible candidates for the FY 2014 UASI program were determined through an analysis of relative risk of terrorism faced by the 100 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States; in accordance with September 11th act of terrorism.

3. Operation Stonegarden (OPSG) Total Funding Available in FY 2014: $55,000,000 Purpose: OPSG funds are intended to enhance cooperation and coordination among local, tribal, territorial, state, and Federal law enforcement agencies in a joint mission to secure the United Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; borders along routes of ingress from international borders to include travel corridors in States bordering Mexico and Canada, as well as states and territories with international water borders. Eligible Applicants: The SAA was the only entity eligible to apply to FEMA for OPSG funds. Local units of government at the county level and federallyrecognized tribal governments in the states bordering Canada, southern states bordering Mexico, and states and territories with International water borders were eligible to apply for FY 2014 OPSG funds through their SAA.

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c) Weapons and Equipment i.

Types of arms and weapons granted to the police

Faced with a bloated military and what it perceived as a worsening drug crisis, the 101st Congress in 1990 enacted the National Defense Authorization Act. Section 1208 of the NDAA allowed the Secretary of Defense to “transfer to Federal and State agencies personal property of the Department of Defense, including small arms and ammunition, that the Secretary determines is— (A) suitable for use by such agencies in counterdrug activities; and (B) excess to the needs of the Department of Defense.” It was called the 1208 Program. In 1996, Congress replaced Section 1208 with Section 1033. The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), which coordinates distribution of military surplus, refuses to reveal the names of agencies requesting “tactical” items, like assault rifles and MRAPs — for security reasons. 268

ii.

Examples of military equipment giveaways

Police in Watertown, Connecticut, (population 22,514) recently acquired a mine resistant, ambush protected (MRAP) vehicle, designed to protect soldiers from roadside bombs, for $2,800. There has never been a landmine reported in Watertown, Connecticut. Police in small towns in Michigan and Indiana have used the 1033 Program to acquire “MRAP armored troop carriers, night vision rifle scopes, camouflage fatigues, Humvees and dozens of M16 automatic rifles” .Police in Bloomington, Georgia, whose population is 2,713 , acquired four grenade launchers through the program as well.269

d) Repercussions of Police Militarization “Unarmed African-American men are shot and killed by police at an alarming rate. This pattern must stop.” - Jeffrey Mittman, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union. Quantifying that pattern is difficult and might be quite impossible, because federal databases that track police use of force or arrest-related deaths paint only a partial picture, in addition to police department which is scattered and fragmented and no agency appears to track the number of police shooting or killings of unarmed victims in a systematic, comprehensive way.

WTO Riots: Seattle 1999:

In November 1999 the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference was held in Seattle, Washington.

WOFFORD, TAYLOR. "How America’s Police Became an Army: The 1033 Program." 13 August 2014. Newsweek. <http://www.newsweek.com/how-americas-police-became-army-1033-program-264537 >. 269 GREENWALD, GLENN. "The Militarization Of U.s. Police: Finally Dragged Into The Light By The Horrors Of Ferguson." 14 August 2014. The Intercept. <https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/08/14/militarization-u-s-police-dragged-light-horrorsferguson/>. 268

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The number of protestors was estimated to range from 50 to 100 thousand persons. The majority of protestors were not violent. However, there were small groups of violent persons. Some of what was told about them was real; for example: masked "anarchists" smash windows, spray graffiti and damage patrol cars; and some was exaggerating like what was mentioned in the New York Times of using “Molotov Cocktails” which was negated by the same side later and also by the Seattle City Council.270 271 However, the previously mentioned violence was enough for the Police forces to use its excessive power against the protestors as they used teargas, rubber and plastic bullets and stun grenades, as well as arresting the protestors without a charge and imposing a curfew and no-protest zone.272

ii.

Occupy Wall Street:

On September 17th, 2011, Occupy Wall Street which is a people-powered movement was initiated, inspired by Egyptian uprising, originated in Zuccotti Park, New York City and spread in 100 U.S. cities. Occupy movement aimed at fighting the effect of the pressure of the major economic institutions on decision makers.273 The demonstrations started on September 17th by a march and then the demonstrators occupied Zucotti Park and its surroundings peacefully. However there were some uncivilized actions like painting and urinating on the walls and trying to enter the city convention center by force.274 On the other hand, the police forces harshly responded to the demonstrations. On October 15th, 2011 a group of officers rode their horses and went directly to the crowd in order to frighten them. Another incident was told by Karen Smith, a retired New York Supreme Court judge. She worked as a legal observer on evacuating Zucotti Park, November 15th, 2011. She witnessed a police officer throwing a woman to the ground and when she went to ask him he threatened to arrest her. Also police officers used pepper spray without offering any medical assistance to the injured persons.275

III.

Private Military Contractors: Industry or Mercenary? Private military company (PMC)”sometimes called private military firm (PMF), or private military or Security Company” provides armed security services. PMCs refer to their staff as "security contractors" or "private military contractors". Private military companies refer to their business generally as the "private military industry" or "The Circuit".

270

"Police Brace For Protests In Windsor And Detroit." 4 June 2000. The New York Times. <http://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/04/us/police-brace-for-protests-in-windsor-and-detroit.html>. "WTO riots in Seattle: 15 years ago." 29 November 2014. <http://www.seattlepi.com/local/article/WTO-riots-in-Seattle-15years-ago-5915088.php>. 272 "WTO Meeting and Protests in Seattle (1999)." n.d. HistoryLink. <http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?DisplayPage=output.cfm&file_id=9213>. 273 "Occupy Wall Street Movment." n.d. Occupywallst.org. <http://occupywallst.org/>. 274 "Morning Bell: Occupy Wall Street Gets More Violent." 8 November 2011. The Daily Signl. <http://dailysignal.com/2011/11/08/morning-bell-occupy-wall-street-gets-more-violent/>. 275 "Suppressing Protest: Human Rights Violations in the U.S. Response to Occupy Wall Street." n.d. Protest and Assembly Rights Project. <http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/politics/Suppressing%20Protest.pdf>. 271

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The creation of the modern private military company is usually attributed to Colonel David Stirling. Stirling was a Scottish Laird and a skillful military man to the very core.276 Watchguard, established in the 1960s, is usually attributed as the first modern private military company. However, an argument can be made that the American company DynCorp which was founded in 1946, was the first, as it provided "technology and logistics support for the American army in Korea, Vietnam, Grenada, and the Gulf War"277. However, regardless of which company was the first PMC, the rise of private defence traces its growth to the end of the Cold War, which has resulted in the incorporation of dozens of PMCs. Some of the corporations are: the American companies Vinnell Corporation and Military Professional Resources Incorporated (MPRI)278. A lot of questions are being asked about the nature of the work Private Military Companies do. The services and expertise offered by PMCs are typically similar to those of governmental security, military or police forces, most often on a smaller scale. While PMCs often provide services to train or supplement official armed forces in service of governments, they can also be employed by private companies to provide bodyguards for key staff or protection of company premises, especially in hostile territories. However, PMCs face a lot of accusations of being a human rights violator in a lot of its missions. Two United States-based corporations, CACI and L3 Services (formerly Titan Corporation), were involved in the torture of Iraqi detainees at Abu Ghraib. CACI and L3 Services, contracted by the Government of the United States, were responsible for interrogation and translation services, respectively, at Abu Ghraib prison and other facilities in Iraq. Seventy two Iraqi citizens, who were formerly detained at military prisons in Iraq, have sued L3 Services, Inc. (“L3”), a military private contractor which provided civilian translators for United States military forces in Iraq. They allege having been tortured and physically and mentally abused during their detention and that they should be held liable in damages for their actions. The plaintiffs assert 20 causes of action, among which: torture; Cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment, assault, and intentional infliction of emotional distress. Also, On 16 September 2007 in Baghdad, employees of the US based firm Black-water were involved in a shooting incident in Nisoor Square in which 17 civilians were killed and more than 20 other persons were wounded including women and children. Local eyewitness accounts indicate the use of arms from vehicles and rocket fire from a helicopter belonging to this company.279 This particular incident was not the first of its kind, neither the first involving Blackwater. According to a congressional report on the behavior of Black-water in Iraq, Black-water guards were found to have been involved in nearly 200 escalations of force incidents that involved the firing of shots since 2005. Despite the terms of the contracts which provided that the company could engage only in defensive use of force, the company reported that in over 80 per cent of the shooting incidents, its forces fired the first shots. This leads us to an important question which is: What Guarantees the transparency of PMCs? The information accessible to the public on the scope and type of contracts between the Lilly, Damian. "The privatization of security and peacebuilding." International Alert. London (2000). http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/Military_Law/Military_Law_Review/pdf-files/176-06-2003.pdf 278 Cilliers, Jakkie, and Ian Douglas. "The military as business–Military Professional Resources, Incorporated." Peace, profit or plunder (1999): 111-22. 279 Prado, Jose L. Gomez del. "The Privatization of War: Mercenaries, Private Military and Security Companies (PMSC)." 1 July 2014. GlobalResearch. <http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-privatization-of-war-mercenaries-private-military-and-securitycompanies-pmsc/21826>. 276 277

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Government of the United States and PMCs is rare. The lack of transparency is particularly significant when companies subcontract to others. Often, the contracts with PMCs are not disclosed to the public despite extensive freedom of information rules in the United States, either because they contain confidential commercial information or on the argument that nondisclosure is in the interest of national defense or foreign policy. The situation is particularly vague when United States intelligence agencies contract PMCs.280

IV.

Case Study: Criminal Stereotype of African Americans a) Evolution of African Americans’ Rights in the U.S. African Americans are considered a very large and significant segment in the American society; however, they faced many difficulties since the creation of the United States federation till they got their rights. In the upcoming pages, the change in their rights and their gradual advancement and inclusion in the American society will be tackled.

Arriving to the U.S.

Africans arrived in the United States soil as slaves in 1619 and they were brought right from Africa to conduct hand work for the rich white European people. They didn’t take any salary or reward for doing these work and they were living in hard conditions. As a result of this harsh treatment they were receiving from their white masters, they began to flee and escape from them. So, in 1793, a federal fugitive slave law is enacted, providing for the return slaves who had escaped and crossed state lines.

“Photograph of newspaper advertisement from the 1780s”

Ross, Adam. "Understanding State Resistance to International Regulation of Private Military and Security Companies" Journal of Public and International Affairs (2011): 88-108. <https://www.princeton.edu/jpia/past-issues-1/2011-1/JPIA20112.pdf> 280

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Poster advertising $100 reward for runaway slaves from 1860

ii.

African-Americans in the 19th Century:

The beginning of the century was marked by a slave revolt in the state of Virginia .In 1800, an enslaved blacksmith called Gabriel Prosser decided to make a change to their intolerable conditions. He and his companions marched to Richmond and their plan was discovered. Consequently, they were hanged. 281Virginia’s laws for slaves were tightened after this incident. In the year 1808 , the congress took a very important decision and it banned the importation of slaves from Africa. 282But this decision didn’t stop the humiliations practiced against the African slaves existing in the US land. In 1831, A remarkable uprising against slavery was held in the state of Virginia. It was led by an enslaved African American preacher called Nut Turner. He and his followers started a militarized rebellion but they were suppressed and hanged eventually. The state’s law for slaves went much stricter. 283 In the aftermath of the American Civil War, on December 6th, 1865, the US constitution was amended for the 13th time prohibiting slavery. After five years, in 1870, the US constitution was amended for the 15th time giving the black people the right to vote.284

iii.

African-Americans in the 20th Century:

African Americans continued the struggle to get full rights in the 20th century. In 1909, The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People was constructed in New York. This organization was the most influential organization for calling for black people rights and was led by black intellectual as well as white ones who believed in the rights of the black people in USA. Along the years, the black people suffered from great discrimination and continued to call for their rights. The year 1963 was a very significant year in their struggle. Martin Luther King,Jr who was a very prominent figure in fighting discrimination against black people, was arrested in anti-segregation protest. He continued to inspire his followers from the jail by 281

PBS. "Africans In America." n.d. <http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aia/part3/>. "U.S. Constitution and Acts - The Abolition of The Slave Trade." n.d. The New York Public Library. <http://abolit ion.nypl.org/print/us_constitution>. 283 Death or Liberty. "Nat Turner's Rebellion." n.d. The Library of Virginia. <http://www.lva.virginia.gov/exhibits/D eathliberty/natturner/index.ht>. 284 "United States Facts, information, pictures." n.d. Encyclopedia.com. <http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/United _States.aspx>. 282

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writing letters about fighting for their rights by the non-violent civil disobedience. He was released and a march in Washington was attended by 250,000 people where Luther gave his famous speech of “I have a dream”.285 In the following year, 1964, The civil rights act was signed by president Johnson. The act prohibited discrimination of all kinds based on race, color, religion, or national origin. The act made the segregation illegal in schools, housing or hiring. 286 Although this act improved African-Americans circumstances in the society, there were still some extremists. In 1968, Martin Luther King,Jr. was assassinated as he was a figure for promoting the rights of black people. Since the enacting of the civil rights act, African Americans were included in a lot of fields in United States even in politics. For instance, Collin Powell and Condlisa Rise who are considered as two of the most significant Secretaries of state were African Americans. This is in addition to African Americans celebrities in other fields like Beyonce and Halle Berry who obtained the academy’s Oscar.

iv.

Current Status :

Although the circumstances of African Americans got much better, there are still calls that discrimination still exists. Some civil rights organizations claim that there are a big percentage of black people who got imprisoned compared to white people. The following statistics show the racial disparities in American prisons: -

Together, African American and Hispanics comprised 58% of all prisoners in 2008, even though African Americans and Hispanics make up approximately one quarter of the US population.287 1 in 100 African American women is in prison. 288 African Americans now constitute nearly 1 million of the total 2.3 million incarcerated populations. 289

285

"March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom." n.d. King Encyclopedia. <http://kingencyclopedia.stanford.edu/encyclopedia/encyclopedia/enc_march_on_washington_for_jobs_and_freedo m/>. 286 "The Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission." n.d. Archives.gov. <http://w ww.archives.gov/education/lessons/civil-rights-act>. 287 "Criminal Justice Fact Sheet." n.d. NAACP. <http://www.naacp.org/pages/criminal-justice-fact-sheet?modTest=>. 288"Tackling

Overincarceration in Maryland." n.d. ACLU of Maryland. <http://www.aclumd.org/our_work/tackling_mass_incarceration_in_maryland>. 289 "Mass Incarceration News & Reports." n.d. TCRC. <http://tcrcphilly.org/about-us/press/mass-incarceration-news-reports/>.

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b) Violence of African Americans i.

Reasons of violence:

“High rates of black violence in the late twentieth century are a matter of historical fact, not bigoted imagination. The trends reached their peak not in the land of Jim Crow but in the more civilized North, and not in the age of segregation but in the decades that saw the rise of civil rights for African Americans — and of African American control of city governments.” - William Stuntz The left needs at fault these results on racial ill will and the system running the country, yet African Americans have long been a piece of running that system. Black crime and detainment rates spiked in the 1970s and '80s in urban communities, for example, Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Washington under African American leaders and African American police officers. Probably the fiercest urban communities in the United States today are run by African Americans.

1. Poverty The argument going in the United States is that poverty, low income rates, non-educated people and the unfair distributions for job opportunities for African Americans are considered one of the variables that contributes to their violence in the community, however, Maryland which is one of the top ten violent state in the United States has the highest average of income in the country, the third lowest poverty rate and one of the highest proportions of adults with college degree.

2. Gun Control Another reason for promoting violence is the gun control’s laws. There are some states that allow buying and carrying weapons without restrictions and this could be reason for abusing these weapons against innocent people. A city like Baltimore which has a 65% concentration of African Americans’ population proves the opposite. Although it has strict gun-control laws, it is considered the fifth most dangerous city in the country when it comes to violent crime rate statistics. 290

Danger in Numbers 



290

In 2005 a report “The Color of Crime” by the New Century Foundation revealed; “Blacks are seven times more likely than people of other races to commit murder, and eight times more likely to commit robbery. . . . Blacks are an estimated 39 times more likely to commit a violent crime against a white than vice versa.” In 2008 a report “Uniform Crime Report” by the Federal Bureau of Investigation revealed similar statistics “In the year 2008, black youths, who make up 16% of the youth

"Crime Stats Alarm Black Leaders." n.d. American Free Press. <http://americanfreepress.net/?p=14864>. 171

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population, accounted for 52% of juvenile violent crime arrests, including 58% for homicide and 67% for robbery.”291 The Department of Justice’s Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention released a study that in 2010 African Americans’ youths committed six times more murders, three times more rapes, 10 times more robberies and three times more assaults than did their white counterparts.292 The states in the top 10 most violent list all demonstrate similar racial and economic disparities. They include by order of their ranking: Tennessee, Nevada, Alaska, New Mexico, South Carolina, Delaware, Louisiana, Florida, Maryland and Oklahoma. More importantly, it is misleading to rate crime by state when it is cities that make all the difference.293

Gangs:

ii.



The Vagos Motorcycle Club

Initially known as "The Psychos", the Vagos Motorcycle Club is a vicious crime association of African Americans dynamic all through southern California. Vagos, numerous military prepared, are famously heartless with their adversaries and have proclaimed war on law authorization. In 2011, a clash with the Hells Angels gang over the turf surrounding a Starbucks store in California left two people dead and eight others wounded.294 The group is known for producing and selling drugs, an operation went down with a reserve of weapons and a long history of strikes, blackmail, robbery and money laundering. They have additionally been blamed for witness intimidation and insurance fraud. 295 

Wheels of Soul

The Wheels of Soul is a predominantly biker gang of African Americans located in Philadelphia. They are criminally active in at least six other states.296 In 2011, Members stood accused of stabbing a rival gang member in the head and shooting another in the stomach in a recent attack at a Chicago motorcycle club. According to a federal indictment in December,2011, the Wheels

291

Juvenile Arrests 2008 “report” –Juvenile justice bulletin, website: www.ojp.usdoj.gov

292

Crime Stats Alarm Black Leaders." n.d. American Free Press. <http://americanfreepress.net/?p=14864>.

293

Crime Stats Alarm Black Leaders." n.d. American Free Press. <http://americanfreepress.net/?p=14864>.

Almendrala, Anna. "Hells Angels Gang Fight With Vagos Motorcycle Club Results In 2 Dead, Several Wounded." 27 December 2011. The Huffington Post. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/27/hells-angels-gang-fight-w_n_1062730.html>. 294

295

Eric Goldschein, Luke Mckenna. "13 American Gangs That Are Keeping The FBI Up At Night." 15 January 2012. Business Insider. <http://www.businessinsider.com/dangerous-american-gangs-fbi-201111?op=1#ixzz3WkscIfH7>. Salter, Jim. "Wheels of Soul Motorcycle Gang Members Face Murder, Drug Charges." 12 July 2011. The Huffington Post. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/12/wheels-of-soul-motorcycle-gang-murder-drug_n_895728.html>. 296

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of Soul also orchestrates robberies and kidnappings and is involved in the production and sale of drugs.297

 Bloods It's an extraordinary reality that the Bloods are the historical adversaries of another gang in Los Angeles called The Crips. Both struggled over region in Los Angeles as split cocaine turned into the cash making medication during the '80s. Both are separated by sets comprising of the same demographic of youthful African-American guys, whom they enroll from the low-wage territories of the city. However, in view of the extraordinary infighting between Blood individuals, the group is no more considered a significant risk to the Crips, and isn't as imposing as a portion of the more prominent gangs in the U.S. — though it’s still dangerous.298

c) Police Practices Against African Americans i.

Missouri : The Unrest

Missouri in a period of two months witnessed two consecutive major events that threaten the national security and bring the discrimination and the social unrest back into spot. Michael Brown’s Death: An African American teenager called Michael Brown was killed on Saturday August 9th, 2014. He was shot by a white cop called Darren Wilson.

Details of the Incident: It was reported that the Quick Trip convenience store was robbed right before killing Michael Brown. However, the Ferguson Police Chief Thomas Jackson didn’t point at Brown as a suspect of the robbery in his Press Conference. It was claimed that the officer dealt with Brown because he was walking in the middle of the road. Despite that, the police documents which were released to the media said that Brown was a suspect. A peaceful vigil was supposed to be held to honor Brown on the next day but suddenly everything turned to be violent as about 12 businesses were looted, robbed and vandalized. In return the Ferguson Police alongside with St. Louis County Police replied in a very harsh way that more than 30 persons were arrested on the same day. Brown’s family asked for peace and emphasized that all they want is justice and they refuse any kind of violence. In addition they totally refused any kind of accusation or abuse to their son. The Ferguson citizens continued to protest all over the town sometimes peacefully and sometimes not. They sometimes clashed with the Police Forces and even threw Molotov cocktails. However, in both cases the Police forces used very harsh ways to disperse the crowds like the rubber bullets, flash grenades and tear gas. Also the arrests continued. As a result, Jay Nixon, The Mayor of Missouri, announced that the Missouri Highway Patrol led by Captain Eric Goldschein, Luke Mckenna. "13 American Gangs That Are Keeping The FBI Up At Night." 15 January 2012. Business Insider. <http://www.businessinsider.com/dangerous-american-gangs-fbi-2011-11?op=1#ixzz3WkscIfH7>. 298 "Bloods sets in Los Angeles County." n.d. StreetGangs.Com. <http://www.streetgangs.com/bloods>. 297

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Ronald Johnson, who is an African-American, will take over responsibility to recover safety and security of Ferguson instead of local Ferguson Police and St. Louis County Police. As the violence continued a curfew was imposed on August 16th. However, it was cancelled two days later as it was ineffective. Schools were delayed and the Federal Aviation Association assigned Ferguson as a restricted area for flights. 299(The Associated Press requested call recordings from the FAA under the Freedom of Information ACT (FOIA). Those tapes of FAA employees proved that this decision was to prevent Media Helicopters from flying over Ferguson).300After August 20th the confrontations receded while the arrests continued which made it likely to break out once more. As a result Nixon announced that the National Guard will be in charge to resist any unrest after the grand jury’s decision on the case after the investigation and the testimonies of Darren Wilson and others.301 The primary autopsy and the one made by the coroner hired by Brown’s family were contradicted as the first said that there was some sort of clash between Michael Brown and Wilson while the other one emphasized that Brown was shot 6 times in the front of his body and said there were no physical struggles between the two of them in contrast to what was said by the police.302 

Local and International Reactions:

For the first time in the US, Amnesty International had deployed a Human Rights Observers team. They expressed their concern towards the overuse of power of Police in killing Brown in addition to the racial discrimination, putting restrictions to the people’s rights in protesting, use of rubber bullets and heavy arms and limiting the media abilities to cover the events. 303 A movement called Ferguson October held peaceful protests from October 10th to October 13th. In addition, a group of hackers and activists called Anonymous created a cyber-protesting event called “Operation Ferguson”. They threatened that if any protestor was harassed they would attack the city computers and servers. Some city officials said that e-mail systems and phones were targeted on August 13th, 2014.304 Demonstrators gathered for training called “Direct Action” which was held in the Church of Greater St. Mark in St. Louis. The training aimed at teaching the protestors how to deal with Police forces in case of using excessive force against them.

Tobias, Grayling. "Ferguson Situation Update Letter." 13 November 2014. Hazelwood School District. <http://www.hazelwoodschools.org/News/Pages/Ferguson%20Situation%20Update%20Letter.aspx>. 300 "4/2599 NOTAM Details." 12 August 2014. Federal Aviation Administration. <http://web.archive.org/web/20140812201027/http://tfr.faa.gov/save_pages/detail_4_2599.html>. 301 THE ASSOCIATED PRESS. "Police Targeted Media With No-Fly Zone Over Ferguson, Tapes Show." 2 November 2014. The New York Times. <http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/us/police-targeted-media-with-no-fly-zone-over-ferguson-tapesshow.html?_r=0>. 302 Allen, Ron and Tracy Connor. "Michael Brown Family Coroner Called Before Ferguson Case Grand Jury." 12 November 2014. NBC News. <http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/michael-brown-shooting/michael-brown-family-coroner-called-fergusoncase-grand-jury-n246881>. 303 "Amnesty International Sends Human Rights Delegation to Ferguson, Missouri." 14 August 2014. Amnesty USA. <http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/press-releases/amnesty-international-sends-human-rights-delegation-to-ferguson-missouri>. 299

304

"Amid Ferguson protests, hacker collective Anonymous wages cyberwar." 13 August 2014. The Washington Post. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/08/13/amid-ferguson-protests-anonymoushacktivists-wage-cyberwar/>. 174

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The United Nations Committee Against Torture held a session where Michael Brown’s parents to testify on the case as they were part of the delegation sent by US Human Rights Network in November.

ii.

Baltimore: Crime of Indifference

 Overview

Baltimore, the city which witnessed one of the most memorable protests in the United States in 1968 returns back to preside the scenes. Forty seven years after the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr, the city is on fire once more and it’s a crime again but this time a crime of carelessness.

Freddie Gray is seen being taken into custody by Baltimore Police305

Freddie Gray, a 25 year-old youth, was arrested by four police officers in west Baltimore on April 12th, 2015. He was a man of an extensive crime record ranged from 2007 to 2015306, however, according to the arrest report and according to the second amendment he got arrested

305

"100 lasting images from the Freddie Gray protests and aftermath in Baltimore." 8 May 2015. The Baltimore Sun. <http://darkroom.baltimoresun.com/2015/05/100-lasting-images-from-the-freddie-gray-protests-and-aftermath-inbaltimore/#3>. 306 "Freddie Gray Arrest Record, Criminal History & Rap Sheet." 30 April 2015. Fox News. <http://nation.foxnews.com/2015/04/30/freddie-gray-arrest-record-criminal-history-rap-sheet>.

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for no reason but having a switchblade knife in his pocket which is not a crime.307 Gray suffered from a spinal injury and yelled for help but medic was not called by the officers although the police van was stopped thrice. It was called 40 minutes later, as a result Gray went on a coma and Police declared that he would undergo double surgery on his spine.308 It was said that Gray was trying to harm himself but another prisoner in the van said he has just banged for about four seconds.309 On April 19th, Gray’s death was declared.

 Baltimore uprising One day before Gray’s death, the protests began in the Western District. After declaring his death the protests continued in a peaceful way and a lawyer for his family released a statement on the violent way the police dragged Gray to the van which was taped by a police video camera. Six officers were suspended on the 20th of April. On April 23rd, the Maryland state police was deployed as protests grew and on the same day Police commissioner Antony Batts met Gray’s family. On the next day, Batts admitted that his officers shouldn’t have waited 40 minutes to call for a medic however he denied any use of excessive force. The following three days witnessed violent protests, looting stores and setting some cars on fire alongside with Gray’s wake and funeral. As a result, on April 28th the National Guard was called in and the mayor announced a curfew that would begin at 10 PM sharp until 5 AM sharp but the curfew was resisted by small groups of people.

Congressman Elijah Cummings, center, and state Senator Catherine Pugh, right, led a group of demonstrators out of North and Pennsylvania Avenues.310 "WATCH: Baltimore Prosecutor Charges Six Police Officers, Calls Freddie Gray’s Death a "Homicide"." 1 May 2015. Democracy Now. <http://www.democracynow.org/blog/2015/5/1/watch_baltimore_prosecutor_charges_six_police>. 307

Freddie Gray: A timeline of the Baltimore uprising." 1 May 2015. USA Today. <http://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/nation/2015/05/01/26727993/>. 309 "Second Detainee Recalls Ride in Baltimore Police Van with Freddie Gray." 1 May 2015. NBC News. <http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/baltimore-unrest/baltimore-man-recalls-ride-police-van-freddie-gray-n351321>. 310 "100 lasting images from the Freddie Gray protests and aftermath in Baltimore." 8 May 2015. The Baltimore Sun. <http://darkroom.baltimoresun.com/2015/05/100-lasting-images-from-the-freddie-gray-protests-and-aftermath-in308

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During the uprising around 200 were arrested, more than half of them were released later as the Police didn’t have the ability to collect evidence against them within the legal time. On April 28th and 29th consecutively there were marches and rallies for protesters.311 A day later, Batts announced that the Police have handed in their investigations’ report to the state’s attorney, Marilyn Mosby. The uprising almost came to an end after Mosby had announced on May, 1st that the six police officers who were involved in Gray’s arrest were charged and that the case is considered a homicide.312 President Obama commented on this decision: “Justice needs to be served.”313 On May 22nd, Mosby also announced that the six officers are indicted with charges like illegal arrest and involuntary manslaughter. The officers' arraignment was set on July the 2nd.314 but later, the lawyers of the officers filed motions to move the trials out of Baltimore as their clients felt they won’t be justly trialed in Baltimore especially in the presence of the mayor who showed sympathy to Gray’s family and Mosby who, according to the lawyers, had aligned herself with the slogans of the protests.315 Unlike the police’s excessive use of violence as a reaction to the protests that took place in Ferguson after the death of Michael Brown, this incident shows not only how the police’s state in Baltimore handled the uprising without any use of violence against the protestors but also charging the officers whose carelessness helped in killing Gray. But does this justify the act of carelessness of the police officers that led to the death of an American citizen in the first place? Should he get arrested without pressing any charges to him? And finally isn’t it the norm to handle the protests without the use of violence or is it something people should be thankful for?

iii.

Darrien Hunt: The Ugly Side of Cartoons

In Utah, unless you are a felon or you are deemed mentally ill, then it’s legal for you to carry a sword even it’s a 3-foot one. Darrien Hunt a 22-year-old young man was carrying one as part of his “decorative” Samurai custom. He isn’t deemed mentally ill officially. However, his mother says that he’s a boy in a man’s body. The Police reports say that Hunt had swung his sword at two police officers, Nicholas Judson and Mathew Schauerhamer, who replied with firing their arms 3 times at once and then he ran away causing dangers to other citizens especially in the

baltimore/#92>. 311

"Freddie Gray: From Baltimore arrest to protests, a timeline of the case." 1 May 2015. MSNBC. <http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/freddie-gray-baltimore-arrest-protests-timeline-the-case>. 312 "Press Conference for Freddie Gray." 1 May 2015. The Baltimore City State's Attorney's Office -. <http://www.stattorney.org/media-center/press-releases/707-press-conference-for-freddie-gray>. 313 "Timeline: Freddie Gray's arrest, death and the aftermath." May 2015. The Baltimore Sun. <http://data.baltimoresun.com/news/freddie-gray/>. 314 "Freddie Gray death: Grand jury indicts police officers." 22 May 2015. CNN. <http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/21/us/baltimore-freddie-gray-death-officers-indicted/index.html>. 315 "Officers want their trials moved out of Baltimore." 28 May 2015. CNN. <http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/27/us/freddie-gray-change-of-venue-motion/index.html>. 177

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neighboring businesses. As a result the Utah County Attorney’s office stated that the use of deadly force was justified and the two officers will not be charged.316 On the other side of the story, some of the witnesses said that they saw Hunt holding the sword horizontally which means he is just showing it but it wasn’t determined if it was for the police or before the arrival of the police. Two autopsies, one was private requested by Hunt’s family and the other of Utah State Medical Examiner, stated that Hunt was shot 6 times from behind, which means he was running away so this may indicate that he didn’t pose an imminent danger that needed to be gunned down, and the last shot was when he was on the ground or while he was falling down.317 One of the dialectical points is that Officer Judson wore a body camera but it was turned off. The justification was that he was inexperienced officer so he forgot to turn it on and also those cameras weren’t tried before so they weren’t sure if they were efficient.318 One week after it was announced that the fatal shooting of Darrien Hunt was justified, Salt Lake NAACP, The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, started calling for an independent investigation by the Department of Justice into the case especially with Hunt’s family announcement of not believing the Utah County Attorney’s Office reports. His mother said: “He was killed because he was black.”319

iv.

Aiyana Jones: A victim of two murders:

The story begins with the murder of Je’Rean Blake, a 17-year-old boy, with a suspect identified by the Police which was Chauncey Owens. It was on May 10th 2010 when Detroit Police Special Response Team attacked the building where Owens lived and Aiyana Jones’ family was one floor below Owens’ apartment. Officer Joseph Weekley was the first one in, afterwards a flash grenade was bombed, and he shot Aiyana, aged 7 then, with his MP5 submachine gun. Aiyana died. Owens, who was Aiyana’s aunt’s boyfriend, surrendered afterwards.320

Internal and Federal investigations took place and then the trial started in June 2013 despite being scheduled in October 2011. The trial ended with a mistrial due to a deadlocked jury.321 During the trial, Weekley claimed that Aiyana’s grandmother, Mertilla Jones, tried to take his Associated Press. "Darrien Hunt shooting: Prosecutor says Utah man had real sword." 15 September 2014. FOX News. <http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/09/15/darrien-hunt-shooting-prosecutor-says-utah-man-had-real-sword/>. 317 Associated Press. "Official Autopsy: Darrien Hunt, Black Man Killed By Utah Police, Was Shot In The Back." 28 October 2014. The Huffington Post. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/28/darrien-hunt-official-autopsy_n_6063930.html>. 318 Evans, Whittny. "Saratoga Springs Police Officer Was Wearing Camera During Hunt Shooting, but Camera Was Turned Off." 14 November 2014. KUER. <http://kuer.org/post/saratoga-springs-police-officer-was-wearing-camera-during-hunt-shootingcamera-was-turned>. 319 Reavy, Pat. "NAACP call for federal investigation of Darrien Hunt shooting death." 10 November 2014. Deseret News. <http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865615215/NAACP-call-for-federal-investigation-of-Darrien-Hunt-shootingdeath.html?pg=all>. 320"How A Police Officer Shot A Sleeping 7-Year-Old To Death." 17 September 2014. The Huffington Post. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/17/aiyana-stanley-jones-joseph-weekley-trial_n_5824684.html>. 321 CRIMESIDER STAFF. "Aiyana Stanley-Jones Update: Mistrial declared in manslaughter trial of Detroit cop in death of 7-yr.old girl." 18 June 2013. CBS News. <http://www.cbsnews.com/news/aiyana-stanley-jones-update-mistrial-declared-inmanslaughter-trial-of-detroit-cop-in-death-of-7-yr-old-girl/>. 316

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gun and she’s the one who fired. On the other hand, Jones said that she was on the couch with Aiyana and then she tried to save Aiyana but never reached Weekley’s gun.322 A new trial was scheduled in December 2013. However, it started in September 2014. The first charge for Weekley, which was involuntary manslaughter, was dropped on October 3rd although they found that Mertilla Jones’ finger prints weren’t on the gun. Another mistrial happened concerning the second charge and that was on October 10th, 2014 due to a deadlocked jury and Weekley won’t go for a third trial. 323

Future Scenarios

Is the current style of police concerning the equipment and the weaponry suitable to dealing with civilians? With demonstrations? With criminals? With drug smuggling networks? With terrorists? The attitude of police gave dissimilar results. That puts us in front of different scenarios. The first is keeping the status quo with the current style of dressing and arms which may lead to more miseries of similar type to that of Michael Brown or Occupy. The second is disarming the police and reign the traditional image of policemen and that may lead to putting the police in underdog situations where terrorists, drug smugglers or even gangs are more armed and powerful. Another scenario is revising the programs that provide the police with funds and military weapons. Superiors’ observation is also a scenario to be considered. Different scenarios but we’ll have to choose the better for the United States of America.

322

"Aiyana Jones' grandma testifies at officer's trial." n.d. Fox 2 News. <http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/22546116/trial-resumes-for-officer-charged-in-aiyana-stanley-jones-death>. "Judge drops involuntary manslaughter in Aiyana shooting." 3 October 2014. Freep.com. <http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/wayne/2014/10/03/weekley-trial-aiyana-stanley-jones/16636179/>. 323

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Second Topic: Border Security I. Introduction..................................................................................... 181 a) The US-Canadian border ................................................................. b) The US-Mexican border ................................................................... II. a) b) c)

Entry to the United States .............................................................. 182 Types of Entry Visas to the U.S. ...................................................... Refugees Regulations and Status in the United States .................... Terrorists Who Obtained Visas to Enter the U.S. ............................

III. a) b) c) d) e)

Immigration to the United States .................................................. 187 Main Reasons of Immigration to the U.S. ........................................ Importance of Immigrants to the U.S. .............................................. Globalization Eraâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Vision ............................................................... Immigration Issues: .......................................................................... Largest U.S. Immigrant Groups, 2012 .............................................

IV. Legislative Background on Immigration...................................... 191 a) DREAM Act ..................................................................................... b) Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) ........................... V. a) b) c)

Border Security ............................................................................... 193 US-Mexican Border .......................................................................... The US-Canadian Border: ................................................................ Important Entry Programs to the U.S. ..............................................

VI. President Obamaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Executive Action ........................................... 198 a) Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) Program ............ b) Deferred Action for Parents of U.S. Citizens and Lawful Permanent Residents ........................................................................................... c) Provisional waivers of unlawful presence ........................................ d) Modernize, improve and clarify immigrant and nonimmigrant visa programs to grow our economy and create jobs ....................... VII.

Future Scenarios ............................................................................. 200

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Border Security I.

Introduction Illegal immigrants enter America from many nations around the world. According to DHSâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Office of Immigration Statistics (OIS), an estimated 11.4 million unauthorized immigrants resided in the United States as of January 2012 compared to 11.5 million in January 2011.324 These results suggest a lack of efficiency in securing the borders of the United States. United States is located in North America, its northern border is shared with Canada, while its southern border is shared with Mexico, the eastern border is covered by the Atlantic Ocean, and the western border is covered by the Pacific Ocean.

Map of the USA mainland with states borders and capital cities.325

a) The US-Canadian border From the North, 10 states share borders with Canada which are; Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, New York, and Vermont. The Canadian border which is also called "The International Boundary" is about 8,891 kilometers (5,525 miles) which makes it the longest international border in the world shared between the same pair of countries. 326 Jie Zong, Jeanne Batalova. "Frequently Requested Statistics on Immigrants and Immigration in the United States." 26 February 2015. Migration Policy Institute. <http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrantsand-immigration-united-states#Unauthorized%20Immigration> 325 "Map of the United States of America." n.d. Nations Online Project. <http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/usa_map.htm> 324

326

Marc R. Rosenblum, and Kate Brick, US Immigration Policy And Mexican/ Central American Migration 181

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b) The US-Mexican border

Wall on the border between the United States and Mexico327 From the South, four states share borders with Mexico which are; California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. The Mexican border has a length of 3,145 kilometers (1,954 miles), and it has the record of the most frequently crossed international border in the world, with approximately three hundred fifty million crossings per year, and over five million cars and trucks travelling through the border annually. Crossing the border near Tijuana-San Diego is dangerous. The crosses in this photograph represent the hundreds of men, women, and children who have died in the area while trying to reach the United States. 328

II.

Entry to the United States : United States is the first destination that people seek reaching. However, United states canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t open its gates freely to everyone who wants to get in. so , in the coming paragraphs, the types of visas one can acquire to enter USA will be illustrated , in addition to the refugees regulations and status plus the undesirable incidents that happened due to the visa systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s inefficiencies.

Flows,Woodrow Wilson International Center For Scholars, August 2011 327 National Geographic. "U.S.-Mexico Border: Fences and deaths." n.d. <http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/media/tijuana-border-fence/?ar_a=1>. 328

Marc R. Rosenblum, and Kate Brick, US Immigration Policy And Mexican/ Central American Migration

Flows,Woodrow Wilson International Center For Scholars, August 2011)

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a) Types of Entry Visas to the U.S. Foreign nationals seeking looking to enter the U.S. must ordinarily get a visa. Visas may be categorized into two general classes: immigrant and nonimmigrant. Immigrant visas are given to foreigners seeking permanent residence in the U.S., while nonimmigrant visas permits a stay for a limited time with a specific reason. The following lines will discuss immigration and nonimmigrant visa categories and requirements. i.

Immigrant Visas :

Foreigners who want to get into the U.S. as immigrants follow one of two paths depending on their residence at the time of application. Foreigners living abroad apply for an immigrant visa at a consular office of the Department of State. Once they get a visa, they may enter the U.S. and become legal immigrants when they pass through the port of entry. Foreigners who already live in the U.S. , including certain undocumented immigrants, temporary workers, foreign students, and refugees, file an application for adjustment of status (to legal permanent residence) with the Bureau of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). At the time they apply for adjustment of status, applicants may also apply for work permits. New legal immigrants are automatically authorized to work and should receive alien registration cards "green cards" after becoming legal permanent residents. Immigrant Visa Categories Immigrant visas may be divided into two categories: Visas subject to numerical limitations and those that are not. Visas not subject to numerical limitations are granted to immediate relatives (children, parents and spouses) of U.S. citizens, resident aliens returning from temporary visits abroad, and former U.S. citizens. A parent with any of the relationships described under the definition of child qualifies as a "parent." In order to receive a visa as the spouse of a U.S. citizen the alien must have a "valid and subsisting marriage" with that citizen. Visas subject to numerical limitations are granted to persons qualifying for family sponsored, employment related, or diversity immigrant visas. 329

ii.

Non-Immigrant visas:

This type of visas is granted to those who want to get into the United States for a limited period of time and for a specific purpose.

Non-immigrant Visas categories: Nonimmigrant visas are divided into nineteen main categories and one special purpose category for NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) personnel. The main categories are given letter 329

FindLaw. "Non-Immigrant Visas." n.d. <http://immigration.findlaw.com/visas/non-immigrant-visa.html>.

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designations. They are: A, career diplomats; B, temporary visitors for business and pleasure; C, aliens in transit; D, crewmembers; E, treaty traders and investors; F, students; G, international organization representatives; H, temporary workers; I, foreign media representatives; M, students in non-academic institutions; N parents and children of special immigrants; O, aliens with extraordinary abilities; P, entertainers; Q, cultural exchange program participants; R, religious workers; and TN, for NAFTA ( North America Free Trade Agreement) professionals. Concentrating on the most commonly-acquired visas, the upcoming lines show in details the Nonimmigrant Visas for Education, Tourist and business visitors and temporary workers. 330 -

Nonimmigrant Visas for Education

Many aliens also seek entry to the U.S. for educational purposes. The F-1 visa is for academic students entering the U.S. to pursue a full course of study at an established academic high school, college, university, seminary, conservatory, or language school. Students who wish to attend vocational or nonacademic programs must enter on an M visa. The J visa covers exchange visitors such as students, scholars, trainees, teachers, professors, research assistants, and leaders in a specialized knowledge or skill. With certain restrictions, F and J visa holders may work while in the U.S. The M visa holder's ability to work, however, is more limited. -

Tourist and Business Visitor Nonimmigrant Visas

The majority of nonimmigrant visas are issued to tourists (temporary visitors for pleasure) and business visitors (people engaging in commercial transactions in the U.S. but not employment). Often visitors are issued a multiple purpose business/tourist visas (B-1/ B-2 category). Both B-1 and B-2 visa are valid for one year and are renewable in six-month increments. It is noteworthy that neither B-1 nor B-2 visa holders may accept employment in the U.S., although an alien on a B-1 may do work for a foreign company located in the U.S. -

Temporary Worker Nonimmigrant Visas

An area of nonimmigrant visas that has grown recently is the H-temporary workers category. These visas are issued to workers with "specialty occupations" (such as computer systems analysts and programmers) or to workers performing temporary services or labor when persons capable of performing this work are not available in the U.S (such as agricultural workers). The visas are designed to help employers meet an immediate and temporary need for labor. Numerical limitations exist for some nonimmigrant work visas. For instance, the law limits temporary visas for professionals (H-1B category) and temporary agricultural workers (H-2A category). -

Special Visa programs:

There are some special visa programs designed for certain countries like the Visa Waiver which permits certain non-immigrants from qualified countries to enter the U.S. for a maximum of 90 days without a visa. As of August 2004, the members of the visa waiver program included: Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brunei, Denmark, Finland, 330

Washington State University. "Types of Visa in the U.S." n.d. <http://payroll.wsu.edu/nonUS/VisaTypes.htm>.

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France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.331

b) Refugees Regulations and Status in the United States: Every year millions of people around the world are displaced by war, famine, and civil and political unrest. United States considers persons for resettlement to the U.S. as refugees. i.

Who is a Refugee and who is not? A refugee is defined as a person outside of his or her country of nationality who is unable or unwilling to return because of persecution or a well-founded fear of persecution on account of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinions. Under U.S. law, a person who has committed acts of persecution, or has assisted in the commission of persecution in any way, on account of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion, is not eligible for classification as a refugee.

ii.

Limitations on refugeesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; numbers: Each year, the U.S. President consults with Congress and establishes the proposed ceilings for refugee admissions for the fiscal year. In Fiscal Year 2014 (FY 2014), 69,987 refugees were admitted to the U.S. through the U.S. Refugee Admission Program (USRAP). Large numbers were from Iraq (19,769), Burma (14,598), Somalia (9,000), Bhutan (8,434), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (4,450).332 And this is an estimated number of expected refugees in FY 2015 based on FYs 2013 and 2014.

(The table is extracted from a Report to the Congress Summary prepared by the Refugee Health Technical Assistance Center.)

FindLaw. "Immigrant and Non-Immigrant Visa Types." n.d. <http://immigration.findlaw.com/visas/immigrant-and-nonimmigrant-visa-types.html>. 332 Proposed Refugee Admissions for Fiscal Year 2015: Report to the Congress Summary prepared by the Refugee Health Technical Assistance Center. 331

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Procedures to be a refugee in the U.S. :

There are three stages one passes through to be a refugee in the USA which are: preinterview, interview, post interview.

iv.



Pre-interview: The steps that refugee applicants follow before their eligibility interviews with USCIS officers vary. Many applicants are referred to the United States Refugee Program (USRP) for resettlement consideration by officials of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). A smaller number are referred by a U.S. Embassy or Consulate. Other applicants are eligible to apply for the USRP directly because they are of nationalities designated as being of special humanitarian concern and in processing priorities eligible for resettlement consideration. Generally, voluntary agencies or the Joint Voluntary Agency (JVA) representatives conduct pre-screening interviews and prepare cases for submission to USCIS; they complete the required forms and compile any necessary documents.



Interview: A personal interview of the applicant is held by an USCIS officer. The interview is non- adversarial and is designed to elicit information about the applicant's claim for refugee status and to decide on its eligibility for a refugee status.



Post interview After the USCIS interview, those applicants who are found eligible for refugee status must satisfy medical and security criteria and must be assigned a sponsor assurance. A refugee admission number is allocated to the applicant and is then subtracted from the annual ceiling. Transportation arrangements are made through the International Organization for Migration (IOM). If the refugee is unable to finance his or her transportation costs, the refugee may be eligible for a travel loan, whereby he or she must agree to repay the cost of airfare.

Refugee's Eligibility for resettlement in the United States:

After one year, a refugee is eligible for adjustment of status to lawful permanent resident (LPR). Five years after admission, a refugee is eligible for naturalization to U.S. citizenship.333

c) Terrorists Who Obtained Visas to Enter the U.S. In the aftermath of September 11, temporary visa system was facing a lot of troubles as all of the 19 hijackers of 9/11 attacks managed to get into US with temporary visas. Claims were raised about the dysfunctionality of the visa system and how it may permit terrorists to get in the country, because three of the hijackers had overstayed their visas and were illegal aliens at the time of the attacks. But actually the danger cannot be blamed on one type of immigration. Most of the Foreign-born Islamic terrorists tried to enter United States with every possible method. They have come as students, tourists, and business visitors. They have also got the lawful permanent residency (LPRs) and become naturalized U.S. citizens. They have crossed the border illegally, arrived as stowaways on ships, used false passports, or been granted amnesty. Those Terrorists have abused America's custom of respecting those looking for refuge. According to the 9/11 Commission Report, Hani Hanjouri, one of the 19 (9/11) terrorists entered the U.S. with 333

Immihelp. "Refugee to the United States." n.d. <http://www.immihelp.com/gc/refugee.html>.

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a student visa. When he applied to get student visa, Hanjouri proved with paperwork that he joined English course a second language program in Oakland, California, however he didn’t attend a single class after entering USA. Despite that, He did not overstay his student visa. In addition to this, three of the 9/11 hijackers (Abdulaziz Alomari, Salem al Hamzi, and Khalid al Midhar) got their visas issued through a system called "Visa Express" utilized by the American departments as a part of Saudi Arabia, which permits candidates to present their applications and supporting archives through an assigned travel organization. In spite of the fact that the applications are audited at the department and the names go through the watch list, the candidates are never met or seen by a consular officer. Without having an individual meeting, the officer can't make sure that the individual who wants to get the visa is really the individual named in the submitted archives and application. Fraud and making false passports can be easily made using this system. Not only that “14 Of (9/11) hijackers, came to the United States on six-month tourist visas and four came on business visas” according to the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. When they get into United States, Two of those terrorists filled in application to change their immigration status to vocational student, however they didn’t use this issued visa for their re-admission to US. 334 These incidents are regarded to be repetitive not just a coincidence, and raise the question of reforming the visa system applied in the United States.

III.

Immigration to the United States: The new lands discovered by the British Empire were a destination to the immigrants mainly from Europe in the 17th and the 18th century. People came from countries like England, Netherlands and other European countries seeking new opportunities and freedom. In the period from 1892 to 1924 the rates of immigration reached their peak.

a) Main Reasons of Immigration to the U.S.: The American Dream is the reason why immigrants choose to come to the United States. It is about freedom concerning religion, attitude and lifestyle. It is about escaping poverty and oppression, and looking for better lives for themselves and their families. Some people have already moved to the United States and seek reunification. A U.S. citizen can sponsor the immigration of any of his or her first degree foreign-born relatives, a spouse, parents, children and siblings, through family-sponsored immigration. Unemployment is a major reason for the immigration to the U.S. as the limited job opportunities in the immigrants’ countries of origin and the unlimited opportunities in the U.S. push them 334

Center for Immigration Studies. "How the Terrorists Get In." September 2002. <http://cis.org/HowTerroristsGetIn>.

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towards immigration. Through employment-based immigration visas, an American employer can sponsor an individual’s immigration and offer him or her job in a specific position lacks American applicants for justified reasons. Those who immigrate for the sake of ending their unemployment are mainly looking for prosperity. However, economic growth has always surpassed population growth, giving the U.S. more people, more prosperity and fewer problems with the reception of more immigrants. They simply prefer a better life opportunity to staying at home.335

b) Importance of Immigrants to the U.S.: There are disagreements on the number of immigrants the U.S. government should accept and on the mechanism of giving them citizenship. However, there has always been an agreement that those who come here legally should become Americans as long as they can be integrated to the U.S. society. “The key to the uniquely successful story of American immigration is its deliberate and selfconfident policy of patriotic assimilation- America welcomes newcomers while insisting that they learn and embrace its civic culture and political institutions, thereby forming one nation from many peoples - E pluribus Unum.” ** The inevitable effect of immigration is bringing a diversity of colors, beliefs, religions and lifestyles. In fact, that was beneficial and desired. However, the Founding Fathers went also to the fact that there have to be a common ground or a uniform vision to America and the principles of the Revolution. One of them was Alexander Hamilton who stated that our policy on immigration should aim “to enable aliens to get rid of foreign and acquire American attachments; to learn the principles and imbibe the spirit of our government; and to admit of a philosophy at least, of their feeling a real interest in our affairs.”336 337 From the economy point of view, immigrants can’t be considered obstructers to the United States. The percentage of foreign-born Americans among the total population now is about 12%. Although this percentage is much higher than the latest 1900s and the early 2000s, the total gross domestic product (GDP), productivity per person and consequently his or her (GDP) and number of American workers increased. An article by Stephen Moore in The Wall Street Journal in 2006 stated that: Increasing the immigration flow was accompanied with decreasing rate of unemployment from 7.1% to 5.3% and specified that the rate of unemployment among African-

Arizaga, Elizabeth. "Why do immigrants come to United States of America?" 17 November 2006. The Gramblinite. <http://www.thegramblinite.com/news/view.php/394244/Why-do-immigrants-come-to-United-States> 336 Spalding, Matthew. "Why Does America Welcome Immigrants?" 30 June 2011. Heritage Foundation. <http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/06/why-does-america-welcome-immigrants>. “Immigrants in American History: Arrival, Adaptation, and Integration” by Elliot Robert Barkan 335

337

Spalding, Matthew. "Making Citizens: The Case for Patriotic Assimilation." 16 March 2006. Heritage Foundation. <http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2006/03/Making-Citizens-The-Case-for-PatrioticAssimilation>.

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Americans was decreased by 6% and among Latin- Americans was reduced by 3.5%. So, whether they are highly-qualified or not they contribute to increasing the national income. In 2005, President Bush devoted a part of the Economic Report of the President to emphasize some facts about the immigrants. Rates of immigrant unemployment are lower than the national average of the United States. Undocumented workers pay taxes leading to a $463 billion funding surplus. They add $88,000 to the tax revenues. Actually, the working immigrants have other impacts on the American society as they may be highly educated especially concerning information technology and engineering. Also, attracting labor to U.S. is a means to gain more taxes and to guarantee avoiding outsourcing of labor to other countries.

c) Globalization Eraâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Vision: After the appearance of globalization, the terrorist threat increased. As a result, the U.S. changed its vision towards immigration. The challenge is extremely difficult. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s clearly keeping America's exceptional status as a "nation of immigrants" and at the same time segregating terrorism. In 2005, immigration policy received far more genuine attention on Capitol Hill, and Members of Congress from both sides of the aisle are now considering what to do about immigration policy. Their various efforts have focused on a wide variety of changes in current policy, including improving border security, strengthening employer verification of employment, establishing a new temporary guest worker program, and offering some level of amnesty to illegal immigrants currently living in the United States. At present, these proposals are working their way through the legislative process

d) Immigration Issues: The scale of illegal immigration into the United States is massive. More than 11 million undocumented immigrants currently inhabit the U.S. The large number of aliens residing in the U.S. is an indicator that it is attractive and is still the destination of dreams. However, this is also an indicator that the borders are open to a dangerous extent that the population of undocumented aliens is increasing by 700,000 per year. Aliens mainly immigrate (legally or illegally) to the United States looking for better jobs. As a result, they make valuable contributions to the U.S. economy. On the other hand, they directly refer to the weak security measures at the borders. Although those illegal immigrants donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t pose threats to the U.S. security but when we realized that 3 out of every 100 inhabitant in America are even undocumented or fake documented, that clearly indicates a security problem and causes a law distortion, resources distraction and encourage terrorists and criminals to enter the U.S. undercover. `

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So, the threats caused by illegal immigration are security threats not economic ones. Even if we looked at the issue as if it is an economic one, we’ll be looking at the rate of unemployment among Americans which is supposed to be decreased because the employers will always choose the cheap foreign labor but statistics stated that this isn’t true. Actually, efforts to overcome the flow of migrants for economic reasons worsen the security condition by encouraging the illegality culture. So a unified immigration plan and strategy shall be found to help secure the borders of the U.S. A non-citizen guest worker program is an essential component of securing the border. 338

e) Largest U.S. Immigrant Groups, 2012 According to the 2013 statistics, Mexico, India and Philippines contribute to the total immigration population of the U.S. with about 14 million. However, it isn’t only about those three. The U.S. receives immigrants from all over the world and as the shares of the countries not in the top ten (Other Countries) increase, the diversity of the American society increases. 339 Country

Year

Number of immigrants

Share of total immigrants population

Mexico

2013

11.585.000

28.0%

Korea

2013

1.070.000

2.6%

India

2013

2.035.000

4.9%

Guatemala

2013

902.000

2.2%

El Salvador

2013

1.252.000

3.0%

Dominican Republic

2013

991.000

2.4%

Cuba

2013

1.144.000

2.8%

China

2013

1.805.000

4.4%

Vietnam

2013

1.281.000

3.1%

Philippines

2013

1.844.000

4.5%

Other Countries

2013

16.324.000

42.2%

Number of Immigrants to the U.S. 2013

Tim Kane, Kirk A. Johnson. "The Real Problem with Immigration... and the Real Solution." 1 March 2006. Heritage Foundation. <http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2006/03/the-real-problem-with-immigration-and-the-real-solution>. 339 Migration Policy Institute. "Largest U.S. Immigrant Groups over Time, 1960-Present." 2013. <http://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/largest-immigrant-groups-over-time>. 338

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1960-2000 Decennial Censuses, 2010 and 2012 American Community Surveys (ACS).

IV.

Legislative Background on Immigration a) DREAM Act: The act of DREAMers, it is the act that allows a group of 65,000 youth get the chance to live their American dream and write their own story without being labeled as illegal immigrants. Most of these youth have entered the United States before the age of sixteen and lived most their lives in this country, absorbed the American culture and were part of the American society. All what they want is to be recognized for the new identity. The DREAM Act is a bipartisan legislation that can solve this hemorrhaging injustice in the US society. It is arguably using an existing mechanism under immigration law, the legislation is also effectively creating a new legalization program with a tailored set of procedures and requirements. This legislation came in action after a long history of amendments in the US congress. On June 15, 2012, President Barack Obama announced that his administration would stop deporting young illegal aliens who match certain criteria previously proposed under the DREAM Act.340 On August 15, 2012, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) began accepting applications under the Obama administration’s new Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program341

Unauthorized Aliens in the United States -By Andorra Bruno “Book” Cohen, Tom (16 June 2012). "Obama administration to stop deporting some young illegal immigrants". CNN. Retrieved 15 June 2012. 340 341

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b) Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) i.

What is deferred action?

Deferred action is a kind of administrative relief from deportation that has been around a long time. Through it, DHS authorizes a non–U.S. citizen to remain in the U.S. temporarily. The person may also apply for an employment authorization document (a “work permit”) for the period during which he or she has deferred action. Deferred action is granted on a case-by-case basis. Even if you meet the requirements outlined below, DHS will still have to decide whether to grant you deferred action. A grant of deferred action is temporary and does not provide a path to lawful permanent resident status or U.S. citizenship. However, a person granted deferred action is considered by the federal government to be lawfully present in the U.S. for as long as the grant of deferred action is in effect.342 Who is eligible for an initial grant of DACA?343

ii.

To be eligible for deferred action under the DACA program, you must:   

Have come to the United States before your sixteenth birthday.



Have graduated or obtained a certificate of completion from high school, have obtained a general education development (GED) certificate, be an honorably discharged veteran of the Coast Guard or U.S. armed forces, or “be in school” on the date that you submit your DACA application. Have not been convicted of a felony offense. A felony is a federal, state, or local criminal offense punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year. Have not been convicted of a significant misdemeanor offense or three or more misdemeanor offenses. Not pose a threat to national security or public safety including; gang membership, participation in criminal activities, or participation in activities that threaten the U.S.

  

Have lived continuously in the U.S. since June 15, 2007. Be at least 15 years old. If you are currently in deportation proceedings, have a voluntary departure order, or have a deportation order, and are not in immigration detention, you may request DACA even if you are not yet 15 years old.

National Immigration Law Center. "The Obama Administration’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals FAQs." 3 March 2015. <http://www.nilc.org/FAQdeferredactionyouth.html>. 343 Immigration Policy Center. "The DREAM Act." 16 June 2014. <http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/issues/DREAM-Act>. 342

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Border Security a) US-Mexican Border i.

The Border Geography: The 3145 km- long continental border is the most frequently crossed in the world with about 350 million legal crossings a year. The United States’ states at the borders are Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California. While The Mexican states are Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Sonora and Baja California.344

ii.

The US-Mexico Border Issues: 

Historical Background:

In the 1830s and the 1840s, the concept of “Manifest Destiny” and the desire to expand the American territory governed the moves and the decisions of the U.S. government. In 1836, the revolution of Texas, which was part of Mexico then, blew up and resulted in the independence of Texas. In 1845, the U.S. government announced the annexation of Texas. On April 25th, 1846, the war began between the U.S. and Mexico. A group of American soldiers were attacked by a Mexican cavalry. Later, the American forces went to occupying parts of the Mexican territory including California and Mexico City.345 The war came to an end on February 2nd, 1848 after signing the Guadalupe Hidalgo treaty which gave the U.S. a new territory of more than 500,000 square miles including California and New Mexico for $15 million while Mexico had to pay $3 million to the American people. That war and that treaty were a main reason for the underdevelopment of the Mexican society for at least a century.346 

Drug Trafficking in Mexico:

The drug dealing network in Mexico is one of the most complicated ones in the world. This is definitely due to the weakness of Judicial and Security systems in addition to the poor living standards. Nowadays, Mexico is the number one foreign supplier of methamphetamine and marijuana and it’s considered one of the major heroin suppliers to the United States.347 Before the 2,000-mile fences on the borders, the drug smuggling operations were mainly overland. After building them the drug smuggling networks looked for new media like ultra-light aircrafts and maritime smuggling. Also, tunnels are mainly used for those operations.

National Geographic. "U.S.-Mexico Border: Fences and deaths." n.d. <http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/media/tijuana-border-fence/?ar_a=1>. 345 HISTORY.com. "MEXICAN-AMERICAN WAR." n.d. <http://www.history.com/topics/mexican-american-war>. 346 Castillo, Richard Griswold del. "Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo." n.d. PBS. <http://www.pbs.org/kera/usmexicanwar/war/wars_end_guadalupe.html>. 347 U.S. Department of Justice, Drug Enforcement Administration. "National Drug Threat Assessment Summary." November 2013. <http://www.dea.gov/resource-center/DIR-017-13%20NDTA%20Summary%20final.pdf>. 344

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"These cartels have spent years and tens of millions of dollars trying to create a secret underworld of passages so they can move large quantities of drugs" Laura Duffy, the United States attorney for the San Diego region stated. U.S. officials said that more than 75 tunnels were found since 2008. Most of them were in Arizona and California. More than seven tunnels were discovered, since 2010, joining Tijuana from the Mexican side to San Diego from the American side. The reason why there are many tunnels in this region is that the soil there is clay which is easy to dig through. One of those tunnels was discovered and shut by the U.S. in October 2013. It was about 2.4 miles long, 10.7 under the ground, 1.2 meter high and 0.9 wide. The tunnel was super equipped. It was ventilated and lighted and had an electric rail system. It was one of the most sophisticated tunnels concerning how it was constructed as it was zigzag shaped and it was estimated that it cost nearly $1 million and that it needed not only laborers but also engineers. About eight tons of Marijuana and 150 kilogram of cocaine were seized inside it. Also three persons were arrested in connection with the Sinaloa cartel which is famous for being the one in control of the drug smuggling things in this region.348 On April 7th, 2015, another tunnel was found in Tijuana near A.L. Rodriguez International Airport by a Mexican soldier. The tunnel wasn’t complete as it didn’t reach the U.S. when it was discovered. Nine persons were arrested.349 

Statistics on drug smuggling:

- $60 billion is the value of the narcotics market in the U.S. as estimated by the United Nations. - The Department of Justice estimated that Mexican cartels earn about $39 billion from drug sales inside the U.S. - The Department of Justice estimated that 1,286 cartels operated in the U.S. in 2009 and 2010. - 2400 marijuana plants belonging to a Mexican cartel called “La Familia Michoacana” were found in 2009. - From 2002 to 2012, 2,143 Mexican women were arrested in the U.S.350 - In 2013, 43,982 persons died as a result of overdose drugs.351 - In 2009, more than 5,874 persons died in drug- related violence as the American weapons continued to flow from the U.S. to Mexico. - The revenue of the Mexican cartels from selling Marijuana to the U.S. market is nearly $1.5 billion.352

Tuckman, Jo. "US shuts Mexican drug smugglers' cross-border 'super tunnel'." 1 November 2013. The Guardian. <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/01/us-discovers-mexican-drug-smuggling-tunnel> 349 Dibble, Sandra. "Drug tunnel entrance found in Tijuana." 7 April 2015. The San Diego Union-Tribune. <http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2015/apr/07/tunnel-Tijuana-drug-incomplete-Mexican-soldiers/>. 350 Kelley, Michael B. "BY THE NUMBERS: Why The Mexican Drug War Should Keep You Awake At Night." 18 June 2012. Business Insider. <http://www.businessinsider.com/mexican-drug-war-statistics-2012-6>. 351 Drug Policy Alliance. "Drug War Statistics and Facts." n.d. <http://www.drugpolicy.org/drug-war-statistics>. 352 Lee, Brianna. "Mexico's Drug War." 5 March 2014. Council on Foreign Relations. <http://www.cfr.org/mexico/mexicos-drugwar/p13689>. 348

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 Illegal Immigration to the US: As other countries with poor living standards, Mexicans aim at reaching the United States in order to look for new life opportunities. In 2012 although the number of illegal immigrants was reduced to two thirds from 2007, the number of illegal immigrants inhabiting the United States from Mexico is nearly 6.72 million. In addition, the released number of illegal immigrants in 2012 was 208,813, from which about 85,000 made it inside the US.353 The illegal immigration isn’t only about the violation of laws; it’s also about the dangers that face those who try to illegally immigrate to the US through the rural areas and the desert between Mexico and the US. The Border Patrol Agents declared that they’ve found 97 bodies in the Arizona desert in addition to 445 ones in The Southwest Border Region.354

iii.

The US-Mexico Border Enforcement: The 2007 Merida Initiative was the key to increasing the cooperation between the United States and Mexico. It guaranteed a $1.4 billion-fund for Mexico and other countries like Haiti, Central America and the Republic of Dominican. Concerning Mexico, that fund was mainly directed to fight the organized crime, decrease the demand for drugs and strengthen the US-Mexico borders. In addition, the US has sent unarmed drones to the borders in order to collect intelligence on traffickers. On the other hand, the US expanded its security efforts on its border-side. It has deployed about 20,000 patrol agents, spending more than $3 Billion annually on patrolling the borders. A secure fence also was supposed to be constructed on a length of 700 miles but it wasn’t completed due to high costs.355

iv.

The Border Patrol Act: The US Border Patrol was incepted in 1924 with the mission of detecting and preventing terrorism by preventing the illegal entry of the aliens to the US. The Border Patrol is responsible for patrolling nearly 9656 km of international land borders with Canada and Mexico in addition to about 3218 km of waters about Puerto Rico and The Peninsula of Florida. In addition to border patrolling, the US Border Patrol is now up to another mission which is the fight against drugs. In the Fiscal Year 2012, Agents seized 5900 pounds of cocaine on the southwest border.356

353

ProCon.org. "Demographics of Immigrants in the United States Illegally - Illegal Immigration Solutions." n.d. ProCon.org. <http://immigration.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000845>. IBTimes. "Illegal Immigration At 40-Year Low, But US-Mexico Border Still Kills Hundreds." n.d. <http://www.ibtimes.com/illegal-immigration-40-year-low-us-mexico-border-still-kills-hundreds-1650692>. 354

355

Lee, Brianna. "Mexico's Drug War." 5 March 2014. Council on Foreign Relations. <http://www.cfr.org/mexico/mexicos-drug-war/p13689>. 356 U.S. Customs and Border Protection. "Border Patrol Overview." n.d. <http://www.cbp.gov/border-security/alongus-borders/overview>. 195

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b) The US-Canadian Border: i.

Historical Overview:

In 1818, an agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom was agreed. It announced the establishment of the borders between The US and the British Canadian lands along the 49th parallel between the Rocky Mountains and the Lake of the woods. In addition, they agreed on sharing power over Oregon Territory for a period of 10 years, which was extended to a similar period later. On June 15th 1846, The Oregon Treaty was signed which specified the US Canadian Border along the 49th Parallel from the Rocky Mountains to the Strait of Georgia.357 Before June 2009, if you just had an ID and a driving license, you could simply cross the Canadian Borders to the United States. However, this has totally changed now as the US adopted a new approach and a new vision towards securing the northern borders as you won’t need a visa but you’ll need just the Passport.358 That was referenced to the 9/11 attacks which encouraged both countries to strengthen their common border security measures. However, the number of the US Border Patrol Personnel on The Canadian borders never reached that at the Mexican borders although the Canadian borders are 3 times bigger than the Mexican as it’s nearly 5500 km long.359 As a result of the two countries’ desire to secure the borders they founded an entry Program called Nexus to facilitate the transfer of lawful US or Canadian citizens to the United States.

ii.

Nexus:

Nexus is an inspection program that allows the entry of pre-screened travelers by US and Canadian officials. Their entry is executed at specific lanes at the entry ports (Highways, seas and airports). A NEXUS Card with face identification is given to the approved applicant. This card alongside with iris matching test guarantees a safe entry to the US. To approve an applicant he must pass a criminal history and law enforcement check.360 In 2013, after Nexus, there were 62.8 million person-crossings into the U.S. from Canada in personal vehicles or as pedestrians in 2013, a 0.5 percent increase in person crossings from 2012.361

357

U.S. Department of State. "MILESTONES: 1830–1860: The Oregon Territory, 1846." n.d. <https://history.state.gov/milestones/1830-1860/oregon-territory>. 358 U.S Department of State. "U.S. Passports and International Travel." n.d. <http://travel.state.gov/content/passports/english/country/canada.html>. 359 Embassy of the United States Ottawa, Canada. "PASSPORT REQUIREMENTS." n.d. <http://canada.usembassy.gov/traveling_to_canada/passport-requirements.html>. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. "NEXUS." n.d. <http://www.cbp.gov/travel/trusted-traveler-programs/nexus>. Department of Transportation. "2013 Border Crossing/Entry Data." 25 July 2014. <http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/press_releases/dot069_14>. 360

361U.S.

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Beyond the Border Action Plan:

It’s a plan which aims at integrating the two countries efforts in order to initiate programs to facilitate the cooperation on many sides including the economic cooperation and the cross-border law enforcement between the two countries. The United States and Canada has a long history in preventing criminals from crossing the borders to escape justice or to commit new crimes. Part III of beyond the Border Action Plan aims at increasing the integrated investigation and prosecution efforts to stop serious offenders and criminals. The US and Canada will develop integrated law enforcement operations including Shiprider teams. In addition, surveillance and intelligence operations will be exchanged between both sides using two “next generation” pilot projects. An interoperable radio system is to be provided to the border law enforcement personnel of the two countries to ease the coordination of bi-national investigations.362

c) Important Entry Programs to the U.S. i.

SENTRI: rd

On January 23 2007, Department of Homeland Security implemented a new mechanism to facilitate the entry of low-risk Mexicans and Canadians to the US which is called The Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative which includes trusted travel programs like NEXUS, FAST and SENTRI. SENTRI provides its card holders a quick Customs and Border Protection processing. For applicants to get accepted they must pass biographical background check against criminal, law enforcement, customs, immigration, and terrorist indices and a 10-fingerprint law enforcement check. If he was proved to be previously or currently convicted, he won’t be eligible to join the program. He must also pass a personal interview with a CBP Officer.363

ii.

FAST:

A commercial program initiated after the 9/11 attacks to facilitate the entry of low-risk shipments to the US. More than 78000 commercial drivers among the US, Mexico and Canada are enrolled in this program. To be part of FAST program, each and every member in the supply process from the manufacturers to importers must be certified with Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism program(C-TPAT). FAST vehicle lanes exist at 17 Northern ports and at 17 Southern ports.364

362

The White House. "UNITED STATES–CANADA BEYOND THE BORDER: A SHARED VISION FOR PERIMETER SECURITY AND ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS." December 2011. <https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/us-canada_btb_action_plan3.pdf>. 363 U.S. Customs and Border Protection. "SENTRI : Secure Electronic Network for Travelers Rapid Inspection." n.d. <http://www.cbp.gov/travel/trusted-traveler-programs/sentri>. 364 U.S. Customs and Border Protection. "FAST: Free and Secure Trade for Commercial Vehicles." n.d. <http://www.cbp.gov/travel/trusted-traveler-programs/fast>. 197

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President Obama’s Executive Action : On November 20, 2014, President Obama announced some executive orders to decrease the illegal immigration at the border. These orders will facilitate legalizing the stay of some undocumented immigrants. It will deport felons and criminals but not families. At first, they should pass a certain criminal background check and pay taxes in order to stay temporarily in the U.S, without being threatened and feared from deportation.

These initiatives include: 1- Expanding the population eligible for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program to people of any current age who entered the United States before the age of 16 and lived in the United States continuously since January 1, 2010, and extending the period of DACA and work authorization from two years to three years.

2- Allowing parents of U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents to request deferred action and employment authorization for three years, in a new Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents program, provided they have lived in the United States continuously since January 1, 2010, and pass required background checks 3- Expanding the use of provisional waivers of unlawful presence to include the spouses and sons and daughters of lawful permanent residents and the sons and daughters of U.S. citizens 4- Modernizing, improving and clarifying immigrant and nonimmigrant visa programs to grow our economy and create jobs 5- Promoting citizenship education and public awareness for lawful permanent residents and providing an option for naturalization applicants to use credit cards to pay the application fee. The following lines will provide a detailed insight to the programs affected by the executive action

a) Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) Program i. -

Who is eligible? Individuals with no lawful immigration status who are seeking initial or renewal DACA.

ii.

What is the change in action? Extends the deferred action period and employment authorization to three years from two years, and allows you to be considered for DACA if you:    

Entered the United States before the age of 16; Have lived in the United States continuously since at least January 1, 2010, rather than the prior requirement of June 15, 2007; Are of any age (removes the requirement to have been born since June 15, 1981); and Meet all the other DACA guidelines.

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b) Deferred Action for Parents of U.S. Citizens and Lawful Permanent Residents i. -

Who is eligible? An undocumented individual living in the United States who is the parent of a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident

ii. -

What is the action? Allows parents to request deferred action and employment authorization if they: Have lived in the United States continuously since January 1, 2010; Had, on November 20, 2014, a son or daughter who is a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident; and Are not an enforcement priority for removal from the United States, under the November 20, 2014

c) Provisional waivers of unlawful presence i. -

ii. -

Who is eligible? Undocumented individuals who have resided unlawfully in the United States for at least 180 days and who are: The sons and daughters of U.S. citizens; or The spouse and sons or daughters of lawful permanent residents. What is the action? Expands the provisional waiver program announced in 2013 by allowing the spouses, sons and daughters of lawful permanent residents and the sons and daughters of U.S. citizens to get a waiver if a visa is available. There may be instances when the qualifying relative is not the petitioner. Clarifies the meaning of the â&#x20AC;&#x153;extreme hardshipâ&#x20AC;? standard that must be met to obtain a waiver.

d) Modernize, improve and clarify immigrant and nonimmigrant visa programs to grow our economy and create jobs i. ii.

Who is eligible? U.S. businesses, foreign investors, researchers, inventors and skilled foreign workers. What is the program?

USCIS will: -

Work with the Department of State to develop a method to allocate immigrant visas to ensure that all immigrant visas authorized by Congress are issued to eligible individuals when there is sufficient demand for such visas. Work with the Department of State to modify the Visa Bulletin system to more simply and reliably make determinations of visa availability.

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Provide clarity on adjustment portability to remove unnecessary restrictions on natural career progression and general job mobility to provide relief to workers facing lengthy adjustment delays. Clarify the standard by which a national interest waiver may be granted to foreign inventors, researchers and founders of start-up enterprises to benefit the U.S economy. Authorize parole, on a case-by-case basis, to eligible inventors, researchers and founders of start-up enterprises who may not yet qualify for a national interest waiver, but who: o Have been awarded substantial U.S. investor financing; or o Otherwise hold the promise of innovation and job creation through the development of new technologies or the pursuit of cutting-edge research. Finalize a rule to provide work authorization to the spouses of certain H-1B visa holders who are on the path to lawful permanent resident status. Work with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to develop regulations for notice and comment to expand and extend the use of optional practical training (OPT) for foreign students, consistent with existing law. Provide clear, consolidated guidance on the meaning of “specialized knowledge” to bring greater clarity and integrity to the L-1B program, improve consistency in adjudications, and enhance companies’ confidence in the program.

Future Scenarios: Faced with the dilemma of the illegal immigration and drug trafficking that it’s facing on its borders, United States is on cross-roads to reach a reconciliation concerning this enduring matter of its border security. There are a lot of expected actions that shall be done. United States may document all the illegal immigrants that exist on its soil. But the documentation wouldn’t equate them to the residents or citizens of US. It would just give them legality of existence which will facilitate tracking them if they committed any unlawful action. The other option is that it shall deport all the illegal immigrants to their home countries and to let them face the accusation of crossing the borders illegally. This shall be a severe punishment that may reduce the illegal immigration rates in the future. Concerning the drug trafficking, United States may use advanced surveillance technology on its borders especially with Mexico. These technologies may include radio mapping, robots and cameras. All solutions are available but which one does the administration will decide to apply? This is what’s ahead.

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‫لجنة شئون الشرق األدنى وجنوب ووسط آسيا ومكافحة اإلرهاب‬ Committee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs and Counterterrorism (NESA)

Prepared by Chairlady Maha El-Sisi

Vice Chairman Mustafa Khaled

Ranking Member Reem M. Galal

Party Consultant Ahmed Emad

201

‫عند إصدار قوانين ‪ 2009‬والتي نصت على إمكانية حظر أي صحيفة لمدة ثالثة أيام‪ ،‬كان الصحفيون يرون فيها إجحافا كبيرا‪ ،‬ولكن سرعان‬ ‫ما عاجلتهم السلطة بإصدار عدد من القوانين تزيد مدتها إلى عشرة أيام‪ ،‬األمر الذي عمل على إلحاق خسائر مادية فادحة بالصحف‪ .‬أما قوانين‬ ‫‪ 2013‬م فقد ركزت على تهديد دور الطباعة باإلغالق أو العقوبات المادية في حالة المخالفة مما جعل معظم المطابع ذراعا أمنيا ورقيبا آخر‬ ‫على الصحف‪ .‬كما استخدمت الحكومة بعض التعابير مثل "األمن الوطني" و"هيبة الدولة" كذريعة لتخويف الصحفيين والذين يقومون بعملهم‬ ‫في كشف تجاوزات الحكومة للناس‪ ،‬مما مكنها من اتخاذ أداة أكثر فعالية في قمع الصحافة بتوجيه التهم المجانية من شاكلة الخيانة والتخريب‬ ‫والتجسس‪.152‬‬ ‫فترة رئاسية جديدة بين أمل التحول السياسي وبقاء الوضع كما هو عليه‪:‬‬ ‫شهدت السودان في ‪ 27‬إبريل ‪ 2015‬اول انتخابات رئاسية عقب إنفصال جنوب السودان ‪ 2011‬وسط ‪ 13‬مرشحا ً منافسا ً للرئيس عمر البشير‪,‬‬ ‫حيث انتهت االنتخابات بفوز الرئيس عمر البشير بوالية رئاسية بنسبة بلغت ‪ %94.5‬في انتخابات الرئاسة‪ ,‬كما فاز حزب المؤتمر الوطني الحاكم‬ ‫‪153‬‬ ‫على أعلى األصوات في االنتخابات التشريعية بحصوله على ‪ 323‬مقعدا من أصل ‪.426‬‬ ‫هناك العديد من التحديات التي تواجهة الرئيس عمر البشير خاصة بعدما اعلن في خطاب تنصيبة بإعادة النظر في السياسة الخارجية السودانية‬ ‫والمشكالت الداخلية من التصدي للجماعات المتمردة والخالفات الحدودية مع الجنوب والعمل على إصالحها‪ ,‬كما ان دمج المكونات العسكرية‬ ‫التى تسعى إلى االنفصال واستمالة أحزاب المعارضة التى قاطعت االنتخابات‪ ،‬لتجنب مزيد من التوتر اهم تلك التحديات‪ ,‬ل‪1‬لك من المنتظر ما‬ ‫اذا كان اعادة إنتخاب عمر البشير سيؤدي الى تغير سياسة السودان اتجاة العديد من المواقف التي تشهدها المنطقة‪.‬‬

‫حادى عشر‪ :‬مستقبل العالقات الثنائية و خيارات الواليات المتحدة اإلستراتيجية‬ ‫بعد إنفصال جمهورية السودان وإستغالل القوى الخارجية للصراعات والمشكالت الداخلية شماالُوجنوبا ً لترسخ دورها في تلك المنطقة الحيوية‬ ‫التي تتمتع بأهمية استراتيجية كبيرة فى منطقة الشرق األوسط‪.‬‬ ‫ً‬ ‫تمتلك الواليات المتحدة العديد من الخيارات االستراتيجية حيال تلك المنطقة‪ ,‬فالعقوبات االمريكية والتهديدات بالتدخل لوقف العنف فضال عن‬ ‫التدهور السياسي واالقتصادي وانتشار السالح وتفشي الفساد مما يهدد بعودة خطر الذين يسعون إلى السيطرة على المنطقة ومواردها‪.‬‬ ‫الصين وإيران من اهم الالعبين فى تلك المنطقة ونتيجة لحاجة السودان في دعم مواردها وجذب اإلستثمارات لتنمية شمالها وجنوبها فالصين‬ ‫تلعب دورا مهم فى االستثمارات البترولية في السودان حيث اقتصاد السودان يقوم على اساس النفط والبترول كما إليران دوراً بارزا ً في إثارة‬ ‫الشكوك حمول تلك العالقات‪ .‬تنافس صيني إيراني وعالقات روسية ليست ببعيدة‪ ,‬ففوز الواليات المتحدة باللعبة العظيمة الجديدة فى منطقة‬ ‫مهيئة للتنافس امر يستلزم السعي للوصول إليها‪ ,‬باإلضافة إلى الصراعات الداخلية بمختلف اشكالها السياسية والصراعات الحدودية بين البلدين‬ ‫وتكوين مليشيات كانت سببا ً في تشريد ماليين وتدهور اقاليم سودانية إلى جانب ملف الحريات والديموقراطية المتدهورة فى هذة المنطقة‬ ‫مختلفة العرقيات‪.‬‬ ‫لذلك يمكن القول بأن الواليات المتحدة تواجهة ملفات عدة فى تلك المنطقة أهمها وضع استراتيجيات جديدة للتعامل مع السودان بصراعتها‬ ‫ومواردها ووقف توغالت القوى الخارجية الساعية إلنهاء دور الواليات المتحدة فيها‪.‬‬

‫‪152‬منى عبد الفتاح‪ ,‬السلطة وحرية الصحافة في السودان‪ ,‬الجزيرة‪.‬نت‪ ,‬يوليو ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/knowledgegate/opinions/2014/7/23/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%B7%D8‬‬ ‫‪%A9-%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬ ‫‪ 153‬فوز البشير بوالية ثالثة وحزبه بغالبية مقاعد البرلمان‪ ,‬عماد عبد الهادي‪ 27 ,‬ابريل ‪2015‬‬ ‫ ‪http://www.aljazeera.net/news/arabic/2015/4/27/%D9%81%D9%88%D8%B2‬‬‫ ‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%B1 -%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D8%AB%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AB%D8%A9 -%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8%D9%87‬‬‫‪%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9 -%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AF‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬ ‫‪56‬‬

‫عاشراً‪ :‬حقوق اإلنسان و حرية الرأى و التعبير بالسودان‬ ‫وسط األحداث الصعبة التى يمر بها الشعب السودانى بسبب النزاعات المستمرة‪ ,‬تشهد حقوق اإلنسان هناك مرحلة صعبة للغاية وسط انتهاكات‬ ‫كبيرة شبه يومية مع استمر القتال بين القوات السودانية وجماعات المتمردين على أطراف السودان التي مزقتها الحرب‪ ،‬واتسم القتال بانتهاكات‬ ‫جسيمة للقانون الدولي اإلنساني والقانون الدولي لحقوق اإلنسان‪.‬‬ ‫انتهاك حقوق المرأة والطفل في السودان ‪:‬‬ ‫المادة ‪ 152‬من قانون الع قوبات السوداني والتي تنص على "أن أى سلوك أو مالبس تنتهك اآلداب العامة يعاقب مرتكبها بــــــ‪ 40‬جلدة" ‪،‬‬ ‫وبموجب هذا القانون الغامض الذى يستهدف النساء فقط تم اعتقال العديد من النساء ‪ ،‬ففي عام ‪ 2009‬تم إلقاء القبض على ثالثة عشر نساء في‬ ‫الخرطوم بموجب هذه المادة الرتدائها البنطلون وحكم عليهم بـــ‪ 10‬جلدة‪.‬‬ ‫أيضا تفشى االغتصاب بسبب الفوضى التى تعم البالد وعندما تشتكى النساء المغتصبات يتم اعتقالهن بتهمة الزناء وأكثر المغتصبات تتراوح‬ ‫أعمارهن بين ‪ 13‬إلى ‪ 22‬سنة وحتى النساء الالتى تتجاوز أعمارهن الــ‪ 50‬عام‪.‬‬ ‫أثناء الصراعات الدائرة سواء الداخلية أو الحدودية بين الشمال والجنوب كانت ضحيتها النساء حيث تعرضن للعنف‪ ,‬سواء كان عنفا جسديا ‪,‬‬ ‫نفسيا‪ ,‬اقتصاديا‪ ,‬اجتماعيا ‪ ,‬سياسيا‪ ,‬وهى كلها مصدرا ً لمعاناة اآلالف من النساء الالتى تتم انتهاكهن بقوانين وممارسات تعسفية وهناك شهادات‬ ‫لضحايا العنف والتى أغلبها ارتُكبت من قبل جهاز الشرطة وجهاز المخبارات السوداني عند استجوابهن في المعتقالت السياسية وهنا يظهر‬ ‫التعذيب بجميع أنواعه‪ ,‬أيضا وعدم الرعاية الصحية‪ ,‬ووصلت االنتهاكات إلى اإلعدامات العشوائية ‪ ,‬وبيعهن وإجبارهن على ممارسة الدعارة‬ ‫والعمل الشاق في بيوت ضباط جهاز األمن ‪ ,‬وأيضا حاالت االغتيال واالختطاف والتحرش الجنسي بكل أنواعه المختلفة في أماكن العمل والوعد‬ ‫باالمتيازات أو التهديد المادى وباألخص الطالبات‪ .‬واتهمت بعثة األمم المتحدة أيضا ً في جنوب السودان قوات الحكومة والمتمردين بارتكاب‬ ‫انتهاكات واسعة لحقوق اإلنسان منذ بدء النزاع المسلح‪ ،‬وقالت في تقريرها إن هذه االنتهاكات تتمثل في القتل العمد على أساس الهوية اإلثنية‪،‬‬ ‫واستهداف النساء واغتصابهن‪.149‬‬ ‫اما األطفال فقانون القوات المسلحة تحظر تجنيد األطفال حيث ينص على فرض عقوبات جنائية في حالة ارتكاب تلك الجريمة إال أنه أثبتت‬ ‫تقارير على تجنيد الحكومة السودانية والعديد من الجماعات المتمردة لألطفال وانخراطهم في الصراعات التي تدور في البالد‪ ,‬ففي عام ‪2012‬‬ ‫أفاد الممثل الخاص لألمين العام لألمم المتحدة من أجل الطفولة والصراعات المسلحة إلى أنه بلغت حوادث تجنيد واستخدام األطفال من قبل‬ ‫الجماعات المسلحة إلى ‪ 31‬حادثة ‪ ،‬وأيضا ً تورط الحكومة السودانية حيث بلغ أعداد تجنيد األطفال من قبل الحكومة ‪ 125‬حالة عام‪.1502012‬‬

‫حرية الرأي والتعبير‪:‬‬ ‫استهدفت السلطات السودانية وأغلقت بعض منظمات المجتمع المدني‪ ،‬ففي ديسمبر ‪ 2012‬أغلق األمن ثالث جمعيات مجتمع مدني ومنتدى أدبي‪،‬‬ ‫واستدعى مدراء جمعيات أخرى لالستجواب‪ .‬كما منعت السلطات جمعيات من التسجيل القانوني ورفضت منح اإلذن بأنشطة عامة في بلدات‬ ‫سودانية وألغت أنشطة أخرى‪.‬‬ ‫وفي مطلع عام ‪ 2013‬أغلقت السلطات أيضا ً جمعيات للنوبة والمسيحيين‪ ،‬واعتقلت العاملين وصادرت ممتلكات كما تم استجواب قيادات كنسية‬ ‫حول مصادر التمويل‪ ،‬ور ّحلت الحكومة عن السودان ‪ 170‬عضوا ً بكنائس أجنبية‪ .‬إضافة إلى ذلك العنف المستخدم ضد التظاهرات ففي‬ ‫سبتمبر‪ 2014‬أطلقت قوات األمن الغاز المسيل للدموع والرصاص المطاطي والذخيرة الحية على متظاهرين أثناء احتجاجات اتسمت أحيانا ً‬ ‫بالعنف‪ ،‬وقد لجأت القوات إلى القوة المفرطة‪ .‬تناقلت جمعيات سودانية معنية بحقوق اإلنسان مقتل أكثر من ‪ 175‬شخصا ً أغلبهم من الشباب‪،‬‬ ‫وذلك جراء إطالق النار عليهم أثناء االحتجاجات ‪ ,‬كما أطلقت قوات األمن النار على سبعة أشخاص على األقل ما أدى إلى مقتلهم‪.‬‬ ‫احتجز جهاز األمن والمخابرات الوطني مئات المتظاهرين وشخصيات من أحزاب المعارضة ونشطاء‪ ،‬وقبضوا على العديد منهم من بيوتهم‪.‬‬ ‫احتجز األمن الوطني المئات دون اتهامات‪ ،‬واستمر اعتقال بعضهم عدة أسابيع‪ .‬وفي يناير ‪ 2014‬احتجز األمن ستة من األعضاء البارزين‬ ‫بأحزاب الم عارضة السياسية‪ ،‬بسبب حضور اجتماع لمجموعات المعارضة شهد توقيع اتفاق للمعارضة معروف بميثاق الفجر الجديد‪ ،‬وتم‬ ‫احتجازهم دون إتاحة مقابلتهم لمحامين أو رعاية طبية مالئمة لعشرة أسابيع على األقل قبل اإلفراج عنهم دون اتهامات وعلى الرغم من تعهد‬ ‫صدر في أبريل من جانب الرئيس البشير باإلفراج عن جميع المعتقلين السياسيين‪ ،‬فما زال الكثيرين وراء القضبان دون اتهامات‪ ،‬والكثير منهم‬ ‫من مناطق تشهد نزاعات في السودان‪.151‬‬

‫حرية الصحافة واإلعالم‪:‬‬ ‫احتل السودان مرتبة متدنية جدا على مستوى العالم في انتهاكات حرية الصحافة ومضايقة الصحفيين‪ ،‬حيث جاء ترتيبه ‪ 170‬من أصل ‪177‬‬ ‫دولة حول العالم‪ ،‬في التقرير السنوي لمنظمة "مراسلون بال حدود" لعام ‪. 2013‬‬ ‫‪ 149‬مظاهر العنف وإنتهاك حقوق النساء فى السودان‪ ,‬يونيو ‪2011‬‬ ‫‪http://www.sudanjem.org/2011/06/‬‬ ‫‪SUDAN 2013 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT 150‬‬ ‫‪http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/220376.pdf‬‬ ‫‪ , Human rights watch 151‬التقرير العالمي ‪ :2014‬السودان‬ ‫‪http://www.hrw.org/ar/world-report/2014/country-chapters/122133‬‬ ‫‪55‬‬

‫امتياز التنقيب في الحقل الذي يمتد من غرب كردفان إلى والية دارفور الجنوبية والشمالية وقد ارتفع إنتاج الحقل إلى ‪ 80‬ألف برميل نهاية عام‬ ‫‪.2007‬‬ ‫وباإلضافة لهيئة البترول الوطنية الصينية تحظى شركة النفط )‪ (cnpc‬الصينية أيضا ً بامتيازات الستخراج النفط في جنوب السودان‪ ،‬وتظهر‬ ‫الدراسات أن أكثر عمليات استخراج النفط في دارفور تجري في حقلي الشارف وأبو جابر والحقل ‪ ،‬إضافة إلى عدد من المناطق النفطية السودانية‬ ‫التي تشكل ‪ ٪8‬من االستهالك الصيني وتطمح الصين إلى زيادة هذه النسبة من أجل إشباع حاجاتها الصناعية المتنامية للنفط‪.‬‬ ‫بينما تحاول الواليات المتحدة اإلمساك بالورقة النفطية‪ ،‬ففي عام ‪ 2004‬أكمل الصينيون بناء خط أنابيب من القطاع بجنوب دارفور وبدأ تصدير‬ ‫نفط هذه المنطقة شرقا ً نحو الصين في اتجاه معاكس تماما ً لخط األنابيب التشادي الذي بناه األميركيون لنقل البترول غربا ً‪.145‬‬ ‫الصراعات و المذابح األهلية باإلقليم‪:‬‬ ‫دارفور صراعات طويلة األمد فهى ال تعد وليدة اليوم أو حتى األمس‪ ،‬ولكنها صراعات تاريخية أدت إلى قتل اآلالف و تشريد ماليين من سكان‬ ‫تلك اإلقليم‪ .‬المسئول الحقيقي عن تأزيم اإلق ليم وخلق المشكلة العرقية فيه هي الحكومات السودانية المتعاقبة منذ انقالب مايو ‪ ،1969‬حيث عمد‬ ‫جعفر نميري حينها بتفتيت اإلدارة األهلية في دارفور‪ ،‬وعلى خالف الشائع بأن االستعمار يقسم البلدان التاريخية‪ ،‬فإن االستعمار البريطاني قد‬ ‫ضم إقليم دارفور للسودان منذ ‪ ،1916‬وبذلك تكون المشكلة تاريخيا ً هي ضم سلطة كانت مستقلة إلى دولة شمالية ناشئة ‪ .‬وصلت األزمة السياسية‬ ‫واإلنسانية في إقليم دارفور إلى مراحل خطيرة من تطورها‪ ,‬تبدت في ارتفاع وتائر العمل المسلح واستهدافه المدنيين‪ ,‬مما أدى إلى نزوح أكثر‬ ‫من مليون مواطن من سكان اإلقليم إلى دولة تشاد المجاورة ووجودهم في معسكرات الالجئين‪.‬‬ ‫حسب اإلحصاءات التي أصدرتها المنظمات الدولية ‪ ،‬فإن قرابة ‪ 200‬ألف دارفوري ‪ -‬على األقل ‪ -‬لقوا حتفهم منذ اندالع المعارك ما بين القوات‬ ‫الحكومية ‪ -‬والمليشيات الموالية لها ‪ -‬والمتمردين في اإلقليم نهاية شهر يوليو ‪ . 2003‬أما عدد الذين لجأوا للدول المجاورة ‪ -‬خاصة تشاد ‪ -‬فيبلغ‬ ‫عددهم ‪ 693‬ألفا‪ ،‬وأكثر من ‪ 800‬ألف هجروا من بيوتهم داخل اإلقليم ويعيشون في ظروف عصيبة على المناطق الحدودية‪.‬‬ ‫ومن المنظمات التي أسهمت في تأجيج الصراع أيضا ً منظمة أطباء بال حدود ‪ ،‬والتي حذرت من أن سكان دارفور وعددهم ستة ماليين يتعرضون‬ ‫لخطر مجاعة كبرى على لسان زعيمة المنظمة وهو نفس التصريح الذي أدلت به اللجنة الدولية للصليب األحمر‪ .‬وقالت المنظمة العالمية لمكافحة‬ ‫التعذيب أنها تلقت تقارير تفيد بأن الجيش السوداني وزعماء المليشيات ذات األصول العربية اعتقلوا وأعدموا (‪ )186‬شخصا ً من قبيلة الفور‪،‬‬ ‫وهذا أيضا ً ما صرحت به وكالة رويترز العالمية لألنباء‪.146‬‬ ‫استمرت تلك الصراعات ولعمليات المسلحة باإلقليم رغم المساعدات الخارجية التى يقدمها الدول المجاورة والغربية لإلقليم إال أن االشتباكات‬ ‫الزالت مستمرة ويصعب حصد عدد القتلى والالجئين حيث قالت األمم المتحدة أنه بلغ عدد القتلى ما يقرب من ‪ 30000‬قتيل منذ اندالع األزمة‬ ‫‪.2003‬‬

‫المساعدات األمريكية إلقليم دارفور وموقفها من إنهاء الحروب األهلية في هذة المنطقة‬ ‫بدأ االهتمام بدارفور في بداية عام ‪2004‬م بعد أن بدأت بعض الدول تطالب الحكومة السودانية بحماية العاملين في المجاالت اإلنسانية‪ ،‬وبدأت‬ ‫دائرة االنتقادات للحكومة في االتساع بعد أن أعلن رئيس المفوضية العليا لشؤون الالجئين في مارس ‪2004‬م عن فظائع ترتكب في إقليم دارفور‪،‬‬ ‫وطالب الحكومة بأن تبدأ الحوار مع الثوار في دارفور وإيقاف المليشيات المسلحة التابعة للحكومة والتي أرهبت األهالي ‪.‬‬ ‫في ‪ 27‬مايو أصدر مجلس األمن بيانا ً يدعو حكومة الخرطوم كي تتحمل مسؤولياتها وأن تنزع سالح الجنجويد وبقية الجماعات المسلحة‪ ،‬وفي‬ ‫يوليو ‪2004‬م تبنى الكونغرس قرارا ً باإلجماع يعلن فيه أن الفظائع التي ترتكب في دارفور تمثل إبادة جماعية ودعا القرار البيت األبيض إلى‬ ‫تدخل أحادي أو متعدد األطراف لوقف العنف هناك‪.‬‬ ‫ً‬ ‫كان الكونغرس األميركي‪ ،‬هو الطرف الوحيد الذي ذهب إلى أبعد من ذلك مستخدما مصطلح اإلبادة الجماعية‪ ،‬فقد عقد مجلس النواب األميركي‬ ‫مؤتمرا ً صحفيا ً بواشنطن ‪ 23‬يوليو ‪2004‬م‪ ،‬تحدثت فيه زعيمة األقلية في المجلس نانسي بيلوس وآخرون معها وطلبوا من وزير الخارجية‬ ‫السابق كولن باول التدخل الفوري في السودان‪.147‬‬ ‫كما قامت المحكمة الجنائية الدولية بإصدار مذكرة توقيف بحق الرئيس عمر البشير في العام ‪ ، 2009‬وجاء إصدار مذكرة التوقيف ضد الرئيس‬ ‫البشير بناء على طلب تقدم به مدعي عام المحكمة لويس مورينو ‪ -‬أوكامبو في ‪ 14‬يوليو ‪ ،2008‬إثر تحقيق قام به بشأن األوضاع في دارفور‬ ‫باشره مدعي عام المحكمة في ‪ 1‬يونيو ‪ ,(148)2005‬إال أن إحالة مجلس األمن لالنتهاكات في دارفور للمحكمة الجنائية الدولية بموجب قرار‬ ‫مجلس األمن رقم ‪ ،1593‬الذي ترتب عليه إصدار مذكرة توقيف بحق الرئيس البشير‪ ،‬كان خطأ جسيما‪.‬‬

‫‪ 145‬عزة شتيوي‪ ,‬دارفور‪ ..‬منجم ثروات يسيّل لعاب الشركات العمالقة‪ ,‬مايو‪2009‬‬ ‫‪http://thawra.sy/_print_veiw.asp?FileName=95906363720090517213158‬‬ ‫‪ 146‬عادل بن زيد الطريفي‪ ,‬أزمة دارفور كيف نشأ الصراع في غرب السودان؟‪..‬وأسباب استمراره؟‪ ,‬ابريل ‪2007‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alriyadh.com/244514‬‬ ‫‪A bill on violating human rights in sudan, December 2011 147‬‬ ‫‪https://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/75044099?access_key=key-1e8rve6zzf4dgwpkj4i‬‬ ‫‪ 148‬المحكمة الجنائية الدولية تصدر مذكرة توقيف بحق الرئيس عمر البشير‪ ,‬مارس‪2009 ,‬‬ ‫‪http://www.amnesty.org/fr/node/9635‬‬ ‫‪54‬‬

‫ذكرت منظمة العفو الدولية أن حكومة جنوب السودان والمتمردين الذين يقاتلونها يرتكبون فظائع مروعة بدوافع عرقية‪ ،‬يرقى بعضها إلى‬ ‫درجة جرائم الحرب وجرائم ضد اإلنسانية‪ .‬وقال التقرير إن القوات الموالية للرئيس سلفا كير وزعيم المتمردين ريك مشار والميليشيات المتحالفة‬ ‫معهما "استهدفوا بشكل ممنهج المدنيين في قرى ومنازل وكنائس ومساجد ومستشفيات ومجمعات األمم المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫أعلنت األمم المتحدة أن عدد الالجئين الهاربين من الصراع الدائر من دولة جنوب السودان عبر الحدود إلى السودان ارتفع ليصل إلى ‪ 24‬ألف‬ ‫و ‪ 700‬الجئ‪.142‬‬

‫تاسعاً‪ :‬إقليم دارفور‬ ‫تاريخ اإلقليم‬ ‫كانت دارفور مملكة إسالمية مستقلة حكمها عدد من السالطين كان آخرهم وأشهرهم علي دينار ‪.‬كان اإلقليم يحكم في ظل حكومة فيدرالية يحكم‬ ‫فيها زعماء القبائل مناطقهم حتى سقوط هذا النظام خالل الحكم العثمانى‪ .‬وقد قاوم أهل درافور الحكم التركي الذي دام ‪ 10‬سنوات‪ ،‬وقامت خالل‬ ‫هذه الفترة عدة ثورات من أشهرها ثورة هارون التي قضى عليها غردون باشا عام ‪1877‬م‪ ،‬وعند قيام الثورة المهدية سارع األمراء لمبايعة‬ ‫المهدي ومناصرته حتى نالت دافور استقاللها بعد نجاح الثورة المهدية‪ .‬ولم يدم استقالل اإلقليم طويال حيث سقط مجدداً تحت حكم المهدية عام‬ ‫‪1884‬م الذي وجد مقاومة عنيفة حتى سقطت المهدية عام ‪1898‬م‪ ،‬فعاد السلطان على دينار ليحكم دارفور‪ .‬وعند اندالع الحرب العالمية األولى أيد‬ ‫سلطان دارفور الدولة العثمانية التي كانت تمثل مركز الخال فة اإلسالمية؛ األمر الذي أغضب حاكم عام السودان‪ ،‬وأشعل العداء بين السلطنة‬ ‫والسلطة المركزية‪ ،‬والذي كانت نتيجته اإلطاحة بسلطنة دارفور وضمها للسودان عام ‪1917‬م(‪.)143‬‬

‫األهمية اإلستراتيجية إلقليم دارفور‬ ‫خمس مساحة السودان‪ ،‬منطقة شاسعة جغرافيا ً وتبلغ مساحتها نحو ‪ 250‬ألف كيلو متر مربع ويقدر عدد سكان اإلقليم بنحو سبعة ماليين نسمة ‪،‬‬ ‫تحدها ثالث دول‪ :‬من الشمال ليبيا ومن الغرب تشاد ومن الجنوب الغربي أفريقيا الوسطى‪ ،‬فضال عن متاخمته لبعض األقاليم السودانية مثل بحر‬ ‫الغزال وكردفان من الشرق‪.‬‬ ‫يتميز إقليم دارفور كثرة المرتفعات الجبلية ‪ ،‬وأهمها جبل مرة حيث يوجد أكثر األراضي الدارفورية خصوبة‪ ,‬كما ينقسم اإلقليم إداريا إلى ثالث‬ ‫مناطق‪ :‬شمال دارفور وعاصمته مدينة الفاشر‪ ،‬وجنوب دارفور وعاصمته مدينتة نياال‪ ،‬وغرب دارفور وعاصمته مدينة الجنينة‪.‬‬ ‫وتكثر في منطقة دارفور غابات الهشاب الذي يثمر الصمغ العربي فضال عن حقول القطن والتبغ في الجنوب الغربي من اإلقليم‪ .‬وتتم في بعض‬ ‫مناطقه زراعة القمح والذرة والدخن وغيرها‪ .‬ويمتاز دارفور بثروة حيوانية كبيرة قوامها اإلبل والغنم والبقر‪ .‬وفضال عن الحيوان والزراعة‬ ‫ً‬ ‫وبتروال‪.144‬‬ ‫فإن باإلقليم معادن‬ ‫من الناحية االقتصادية ‪ :‬دارفور األرض الصحراوية في معظمها المحصورة بريا ً البعيدة عن الموانئ البحرية‪ ،‬لم تعد رغم كل ذلك تلك‬ ‫األرض المنسية اليوم‪ ،‬فهي كلها اآلن مقسمة إلى مربعات بترولية تتزاحم عليها أكثر من عشرين شركة عالمية‪ ,‬وعلى بعد كيلومترات وراء‬ ‫الحدود التشادية تقوم شركة عالم ية باستكشاف اليورانيوم طبقا للخرائط الجيولوجية الفرنسية‪ ،‬توجد حاليا في دارفور خمسة قطاعات للتنقيب عن‬ ‫النفط وهي تقع فوق أحواض رسوبية عميقة يعتقد أنها غنية بالنفط والمفاجئة أن الصينيين ليسوا وحدهم من اهتم بهذه القطاعات طبقا للمصادر‬ ‫السودانية بل أبدى عددا من الشركات األميركية رغبة في التنقيب فيها رغم وجودها في اإلقليم المضطرب ورغم الحذر الرسمي في واشنطن‬ ‫على عمل الشركات األميركية في السودان‪.‬‬ ‫تعد والية دارفور الشمالية من أغنى واليات السودان على االطالق‪ ،‬حيث تتمتع بأرض زراعية خصبة‪ ،‬وتبلغ المساحة المزروعة منها‬ ‫بالمحاصيل ما يقارب ‪ 8‬ماليين فدان ‪ .‬كما تمتلك هذه الوالية مليون رأس من األبقار واإلبل والماشية أي بنسبة ‪ ٪ 10‬من ثروة السودان‬ ‫الحيوانية‪ ،‬أما الثروة المعدنية في إقليم دارفور فتتوزع بين الحديد والرصاص والغرانيت والكروم واليورانيوم والرخام ومواد البناء وتقدر كمياتها‬ ‫بماليين األطنان‪ .‬وعلى الرغم من الظروف الطبيعية القاسية الذي يشكل الجفاف أهم عواملها إال أن أراضي إقليم دارفور تختزن بداخلها بحيرات‬ ‫من المياه الجوفية‪ ,‬كما أن وجود بعض السلع االستراتيجية فيها مثل اليورانيوم كلها عوامل جعلت من هذه المنطقة مسرحا ً للصراع الدولي للبحث‬ ‫والسيطرة على المادة المحركة لماكينة الحضارة‪.‬‬ ‫توجد حاليا ً في دارفور خمسة قطاعات دولية تحظى الصين بامتيازات كبيرة للتنقيب على النفط فيها واستيراده من خالل هيئة البترول الوطنية‬ ‫الصينية التي تعتبر إحدى شركات النفط الرئيسية التي تملك حق استغالل النفط في السودان بالتعاون مع الحكومة السودانية‪ .‬حيث تملك الصين‬

‫‪ 142‬ما الذى جناة جنوب السودان من اإلنفصال؟ حرب ومليون جائع‪ ,‬مايو ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.noonpost.net/tag/3107‬‬ ‫‪143‬اقليم دارفور‪ ,‬اغسطس ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%81%D9%88%D8%B1#.D8.A7.D9.84.D8.AA.D8.A7.D‬‬ ‫‪8.B1.D9.8A.D8.AE‬‬ ‫‪ 144‬إقليم دارفور‪ ,‬قسم البحوث والدراسات‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/specialfiles/pages/0ff07ff3-6ce1-4e57-8d7f-15af89416a71‬‬ ‫‪53‬‬

‫ولم تكن هجليج محل صراع بين السودان وجنوب السودان لوجودها في عمق األراضي السودانية بوالية جنوب كردفان‪ ,‬إال أن أزمة هجليج‬ ‫محط ة جديدة من محطات النزاع السياسى واالقتصادي بين الشمال والجنوب كما حدث في مناطق عدة كأبيى وجنوب كردفان وجبال النوبة‬ ‫وغيرها‪ .‬فكلتا الدولتين تسعى إلى إثبات الوجود‪ ،‬وامتالك أوراق للضغط والمساومة‪ .‬لكن ربما مناط التميز في هذه المحطة من محطات الصراع‬ ‫هو البعد القا نونى‪ ،‬المتمثل في أن أزمة هجليج كانت اعتداء صريحا من دولة الجنوب على أراض شمالية خالصة دون سابق إنذار مارس‬ ‫"‪ ، "2012‬وبالتالى يخضع هذا الصراع للوصف القانونى لجريمة االعتداء المسلح على دولة عضو في األمم المتحدة حيث في نهاية األمر‬ ‫انسحبت القوات الجنوبية ‪ 29‬مارس من نفس العام حيث تكبدت خسائر مادية وبشرية كبيرة‪.138‬‬

‫صراعات داخلية وحروب أهلية‬ ‫تُصنف جنوب السودان بعد االستقالل عام ‪ 2011‬وفقا لمؤشرات مجلة السياسة االمريكية للدول الفاشلة عام ‪ 2013‬المركز الرابع بين ‪178‬‬ ‫دولة‪.‬‬ ‫فالصراعات القبيلة على أساس األفضلية العرقية ما زا لت تسيطر على الجنوب والرغبة في احتكار السلطة والثروة هي أحد أهم أسباب القتال‬ ‫الدائر في الجنوب‪ ،‬فوفقًا لتقديرات غير رسمية يوجد بالجنوب أكثر من ‪ 40‬فصيل مسلح تابع لقبائل مختلفة؛ ما جعل الجنوب ليس أفضل حاالً‬ ‫بعد االنفصال مما كان عليه قبله‪.‬‬ ‫ً‬ ‫تدهورا ملحوظا في سنة ‪ ،2009‬األمر الذي رأت فيه حكومة جنوب السودان امتدادًا للحرب األهلية الثانية‪ .‬فقد‬ ‫شهد األمن في جنوب السودان‬ ‫ً‬ ‫شاركت فيها طائفة من الجماعات المسلحة العرقية أو القبلية تغذيها مظالم عديدة تحملها على حكومة جنوب السودان‪ ،‬تحولت الصراعات بجنوب‬ ‫السودان من صراعات عرقية إلى صراعات على السلطة حيث شهد عام ‪ 2013‬صراعا دمويا أدى إلى نشوب حرب أهلية شبهها البعض‬ ‫بالحرب األهلية الثانية ‪ ،‬وتعود جذور هذا الصراع لمئات من السنين بين كل من قبائل الدينكا بعشائرها السبعة وقبيلة لو نوير‪ ،‬حيث هناك بين‬ ‫كل من القبيلتين صراع شرس‪ ،‬منذ مئات السنين خلف آالفا من القتلى والجرحى بين الطرفين‪.‬‬ ‫وال شك أن المعطيات على الساحة في دولة الجنوب منذ االستقالل في ‪ 2011‬لعبت دورا كبيرا في وصول األزمة إلى ذروتها ‪ ،‬حيث إن الترتيبات‬ ‫السياسية وتوزيع المنافع االقتصادية هى محور خالف داخلى بين الفرقاء السياسيين الذين وحدهم في السابق حلم االنفصال‪ ،‬لكن يفرقهم اليوم‬ ‫الخالف حول توزيع السلطة والثروة‪.‬‬ ‫ظهرت مالمح الصراع في جنوب السودان تتشكل تحديدا في شهر فبراير من عام ‪ ،2013‬عندما أعلن نائب رئيس السابق رياك مشار نيته في‬ ‫الترشح لرئاسة الحركة الشعبية في االنتخابات القادمة ضد الرئيس سلفاكير في ‪ .2015‬ونتيجة لخطأ قاتل ارتكبه سلفاكير وقتئذ وهو استجابته‬ ‫للتحريض من قبل المقربين منه ضد نائب مشار عقب إعالنه الترشح لرئاسة الجمهورية فظن أن إعفاء الرجل من منصب النائب األول سيخلصه‬ ‫منه إلى األبد ‪.‬‬ ‫اندلعت مواجهات في جوبا عاصمة السودان الجنوبي‪ ،‬ليلة األحد ‪ 15‬ديسمبر ‪ ،2013‬بين قوات موالية للرئيس سلفاكير وقوات موالية لنائبه‬ ‫المقال رياك مشار‪ ،‬فوقع آالف الضحايا بين قتيل وجريح‪ ،‬وتدفق آالف من النازحين (‪ (122000‬منذ اندالع المواجهات(‪.)139‬‬ ‫حسب منظمة "وورلد فيجن" للمساعدات‪ ،‬خلف الصراع المسلح في الدولة األحدث في العالم آالف القتلى وأكثر من ‪ 700‬ألف نازح منذ اتخذ‬ ‫الصراع على السلطة بين الرئيس سلفا كير ونائبه سابقًا ريك مشار اتجاه العنف منتصف ديسمبر‪ ،‬وفر ‪ 123‬ألفًا و‪ 400‬شخص إلى الدول‬ ‫المجاورة‪ ،‬مثل أوغندا وكينيا والسودان وإثيوبيا‪.140‬‬

‫أثر الجماعات المسلحة والمليشيات على جنوب السودان وموقف الواليات المتحدة منها‪:‬‬ ‫قام أعضاء من الكونجرس األمريكي بعرض أكثر من أربعة مشاريع بقانون لفرض عقوبات على العسكريين بجنوب السودان لوقف أعمال‬ ‫العنف ودعم االنتقال السلمي وتقاسم السلطة بين األطراف المتنازعة في جنوب السودان(‪.)141‬‬ ‫وجه األمين العام لألمم المتحدة "بان كي مون" ندا ًء مل ًحا إلنقاذ جنوب السودان‪ ،‬قال فيه إن "مليون شخص يواجهون خطر المجاعة بسبب‬ ‫فورا فإن مليون شخص قد يعانون من المجاعة في غضون أشهر‪ ..‬ماليين السودانيين‬ ‫المعارك وموسم األمطار"‪ ،‬مضيفًا‪" :‬إذا لم نتحرك ً‬ ‫الجنوبيين جائعين اليوم‪ ،‬ونحن نلحظ مستويات عالية جدًا من سوء التغذية في صفوف مئات آالف النازحين من جراء النزاع‪ ،‬وخاصة النساء‬ ‫واألطفال‪".‬‬

‫‪ 138‬اكرم حسام‪ ,‬رهانات خاسرة‪ ,‬مستقبل العالقات بين شمال السودان وجنوبه بعد أزمة هجليج‪ ,‬إبريل ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://www.siyassa.org.eg/NewsQ/2410.aspx‬‬ ‫‪ 139‬صالح خليل‪ ,‬جنوب السودان وصراع الفرقاء على السلطة‪ ,‬ملف األهرام اإلستراتيجي‪ ,‬يناير ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://digital.ahram.org.eg/Policy.aspx?Serial=1562905‬‬ ‫‪ 53‬حرب جنوب السودان‪ ,‬جنوب السودان الذى ال نعرفة‪ ,‬نوفمبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.noonpost.net/tag/1420‬‬ ‫‪H.Res.689 - Supporting an end to the ethnic and politically fueled violence in South Sudan and the successful 141‬‬ ‫)‪implementation of a transitional government.113th Congress (2013-2014‬‬ ‫‪https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/house‬‬‫‪resolution/689?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22south+sudan%22%5D%7D‬‬ ‫‪52‬‬

‫السودان‪ ,‬وتقدر احتياطات النفط عموما ً بحوالي ‪ 6‬مليارات برميل قابلة للنمو ‪ ،‬وتتركز هذه االحتياطيات في الجنوب أو على الحدود بين‬ ‫الشمال والجنوب في منطقة ابيي المتنازع عليها وال شك أن البترول سيظل على رأس قائمة األسباب التي تدفع بالقوى االقتصادية العالمية‬ ‫لتأييد انفصال الجنوب‪.‬‬

‫المشكالت النفطية و الحدودية مع الشمال السوداني "أزمة أبيي التاريخية"‬ ‫تقع بين مقاطعتي بحر الغزال وكوردوفان الجنوبية‪ .‬وهي عالقة جغرافيا ً وسياسيا ً بين شمال السودان وجنوبه ‪ ,‬تش ّكل موطن قبيلة نغوك دينكا‪،‬‬ ‫أنساب قيبلة دينكا الجنوبية ‪ ،‬ومن الشمال والشمال الشرقي رعاة قبيلة مسيريّة (بقارة)‪ .‬اتسمت العالقة تاريخيا ً بين مسيريّة ونغوك دينكا فقد عاش‬ ‫االثنان ضمن حدود إدارية منفصلة في خالل االستعمار حتى عام ‪ ،1905‬نقطة التحول كانت في العام ‪ 1965‬عندما ا ُ ِ‬ ‫حرق ‪ 72‬رجالً غير مسلحٍ‬ ‫من نغوك دينكا في منطقة بابانوسا في مسيريّة‪ .‬بدأ أفراد دينكا يتحولون بشكل كبير نحو ثوار أنيا‪ -‬نيا الجنوبيين حيث قضية انفصال الجنوب‬ ‫فيما حصلت قبيلة مسيريّة على معاملة مميزة من الحكومة المركزية واحتمت بقوة مع الشمال ‪.‬‬ ‫وضع اتفاق أديس أبابا الموقع في عام ‪ 1972‬حدا ً للحرب األهلية األولى‪ ،‬وتضمن بندا ً حول إجراء استفتاء يخول أي "مناطق أخرى تشكل ثقافيا ً‬ ‫أو جغرافيا ً جزءا ً من التركيبة الجنوبية" بما فيها أبيي االختيار بين البقاء في الشمال أو االلتحاق بالمنطقة الجنوبية المستقلة حديثاً‪ ,‬إال أن اكتشاف‬ ‫النفط قد زاد المسألة تعقيداً في أبيي كما في سائر المناطق النفطية القريبة من الحدود الشمالية‪ -‬الجنوبية‪ .‬فبعد االكتشاف األول في عام ‪،1979‬‬ ‫بدأ الرئيس نميري يبذل جهودا ً لتعديل الحدود وإعادة موضع المناطق الغنية بالنفط في الشمال بدل الجنوب فاشتركت قبيلة مسيريّة في الحرب‬ ‫للقوات في مواجهة قبيلة دينكا في أبيي‪.‬‬ ‫إلى جانب الحكومة منتصف الثمانينيات ‪ ،‬فش ّكلت الصفوف األماميّة ّ‬ ‫عقب الحرب األهلية األولى والثانية وتعاقب الحكومات على السودان تم التوقيع على عدة اتفاقيات وبروتوكوالت لحل أزمة إبيي إال أن األزمة‬ ‫كانت تُحل من الناحية السياسة فقط دون الوضع في االعتبار تلك الجماعات المسلحة التى تسعى لضم إبيي سواء شماال أو جنوبا ومعظم االتفاقيات‬ ‫كانت تسعى إلى حق تقرير مصير إبيي إال أن الشمال يعلن رفضه لخوفه من أن يفقد سيطرته على المنطقة ومازالت أزمة الصراع الحدودي‬ ‫بين الشمال والجنوب على تلك المنطقة مستمرة حتى بعد انفصال الجنوب عن الشمال رغم التهديدات الدولة بفرض عقوبات على حكومة الدولتين‪.‬‬ ‫لم يكن السودان يملك بعد الموارد الفنيّة أو الماليّة لتطوير موارده الخاصة‪ .‬وبدأ االستثمار الجدي أواسط التسعينيات‪ ،‬وشمل أبيي عام ‪،1996‬‬ ‫حيث بدأت شركة الطاقة الكنديّة المستقلّة ‪ ، Arakis Energy‬ومن ث ّم قدّرت حصر احتياطي ‪ 600‬مليون القابل لالسترجاع بـ ‪ 1.2‬مليار‬ ‫برميل‪ ,‬دخلت ‪ Arakis‬في شراكة اتحاديّة مع العديد من شركات أخرى جمع المال لبناء خ ّ‬ ‫ط أنابيب ( ‪Greater Nile Oil‬‬ ‫‪ ، Pipeline(GNOP‬وهو خط يمتد وسط إبيي مما يعطية أهمية نفطية كبيرة(‪.)135‬‬ ‫ال تعتبر منطقة إبيي منطقة نزاع نفطي فقط كما يظن البعض بل إنها منطقة نزاع على الموارد المائية حيث تعتبر إبيي مخزون كبير من المياه‬ ‫الجوفية‪ ،‬وتقول الدراسات إن حجم الثروة الحيوانية من بقر وضأن وماعز في المنطقة يقدر بالماليين‪ ،‬وبها أراض زراعية شاسعة صالحة‬ ‫للزراعة‪ ،‬كما أن بها غابات كثيفة تُزرع فيها أشجار الصمغ العربي ‪.‬‬ ‫يمر بمنطقة إبيي "بحر العرب"‪ ،‬وهو نهر منحدر من الغرب إلى الشرق ليغذي نهر النيل‪ ،‬وهو نهر دائم‪ ،‬ويعتبر مصدر المياه الرئيسي لسكان‬ ‫المنطقة خاصة أن أغلبهم يربون الماشية‪ .‬كما توجد أنهار صغيرة أخرى تُتخذ مصادر للمياه في فصل الصيف غير الممطر ‪.‬‬ ‫ويمتهن سكان أبيي الرعي والزراعة‪ ،‬وتشهد ما يعرف برحالت البقارة في السودان‪ ،‬حيث يتجهون إلى الجنوب في الصيف‪ ،‬حيث تشح المياه‬ ‫في الشمال‪ ،‬ثم يعودون في الرحلة ذاتها إلى الشمال حين تبدأ األمطار في الهطول في الشمال‪ .‬لذلك كانت وستظل منطقة ابيي منطقة صراع‬ ‫مشتعل بين الشمال والجنوب ولن تنتهي بل اشتدت خاصة بعد االنفصال الجنوبي حيث يرى كل منهم أحقية األخرى في تلك المنطقة‪.136‬‬

‫منطقة هجليج النفطية‪:‬‬ ‫توجد بها قرابة ‪ 75‬بئرا من النفط تغذي االقتصاد السوداني بإنتاجة حيث تتجاوز العشرين ألف برميل يوميا‪ .‬تضم محطة ضخ النفط الرئيسية‬ ‫التي تضخ نفط الجنوب والشمال على السواء‪ ،‬ومحطة معالجة خام النفط الرئيسية لكل النفط السوداني والجنوبي‪ ،‬وخزانات للوقود الخام بسعة‬ ‫تزيد عن ‪ 400‬ألف برميل‪ ،‬ونحو ‪ 19‬معسكرا لموظفي الشركات العاملة في مجال النفط المحلية منها واألجنبية‪ ،‬بجانب محطة كهرباء تغذي‬ ‫كافة حقول النفط في المنطقة‪.‬‬ ‫ومن الناحية اإلستراتيجية فإنها تعتبر البوابة الرئيسية لواليات جنوب وشمال كردفان وشرق وجنوب دارفور‪ ،‬نظرا المتداد سكانها الذين ينتمون‬ ‫قبليا إلى الواليات المذكورة كقبائل المسيرية والرزيقات وبعض قبائل الشمال األخرى‪ ,‬كما تعتبر الممول الرئيسي لموازنة الدولة بما تبقى من‬ ‫نفط عقب انفصال الجنوب‪ ،‬النطالق جميع أنابيب نقل النفط منها إلى الخرطوم أو بورتسودان‪.137‬‬

‫‪ 135‬السودان‪ :‬إخراج ابيي من نفق االزمات‪ ,‬تقرير حول إفريقيا ‪ ,47‬اكتوبر ‪2007‬‬ ‫‪http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/horn-of‬‬‫‪africa/sudan/Arabic%20Translations/B047%20Suda n%20Breaking%20the%20Abyei%20Deadlock%20Arabic.pdf‬‬ ‫‪ 136‬خالد سعد‪ ,‬الصراع في أبيي ال يدور حول النفط فقط‪ ,‬اكتوبر ‪2009‬‬ ‫‪http://www.theniles.org/helper/articleprint-ar.php?id=388‬‬ ‫‪ 3‬منطقة هجليج‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/news/arabic/2012/4/11/%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%82%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%AC‬‬ ‫‪51‬‬

‫التعاون العسكري و دور القوات الدولية المتواجدة في السودان‬ ‫في التاسع من يناير ‪ 2011‬عقب انفصال جنوب السودان وفقا لالستفتاء المنصوص عليه في اتفاق السالم الشامل الموقع في اليوم نفسه عام‬ ‫‪ , 2005‬انتهي عمل بعثة األمم المتحدة في السودان‪ .‬لكن دعما للدولة الجديدة ومن أجل توطيد األمن والسلم وتهيئة الظروف من أجل التنمية‪ ,‬أنشأ‬ ‫مجلس األمن بعثة خلفا لبعثة األمم المتحدة تحت اسم بعثة األمم المتحدة في جنوب السودان" ‪ "UNMIS‬لفترة أولية سنة قابلة للتجديد‪.‬‬ ‫مع اندالع أحداث العنف في العاصمة جوبا جنوب السودان أثر خالفات الرئيس سلفاكير ونائبه ريك ماشار ‪ 2013‬وتأثر واليات في جنوب‬ ‫السودان باألزمة منها جونقلي والوحدة وأعالي النيل‪ ,131‬قرر مجلس األمن في ‪ 27‬مايو ‪ 2014‬تعزيز قوات البعثة وتحديد أولوياتها لرصد‬ ‫حقوق اإلنسان ودعم تنفيذ اتفاقية وقف األعمال العدائية‪ .‬وزيادة أعضاء البعثة من العسكريين من ‪ 7000‬إلي ‪ ، 12.500‬وكذلك أفراد الشرطة‬ ‫المدنية من ‪ 900‬إلي ‪ .1.323‬يسهم عدد كبير من ا لدول بعسكريين وأفراد شرطة في بعثة األمم المتحدة منهم الواليات المتحدة األمريكية(‪.)132‬‬ ‫وتعهدت الواليات المتحدة في اجتماع بشأن عمليات حفظ السالم حضره نائب الرئيس األمريكي جو بايدن‪ ,‬بمزيد من الجنود وتحسين التدريب‬ ‫وتزويد القوات بموارد إضافية‪.‬‬ ‫وفي نفس السياق قالت مبعوثة األمم المتحدة الخاصة إلى جنوب السودان "إيلين مارغريت لوي" أكتوبر ‪ 2014‬أنه من المتوقع انضمام نحو‬ ‫‪ 700‬جندي صيني من قوات حفظ السالم إلي بعثة المنظمة الدولية في جنوب السودان مع بداية العام ‪.)133(2015‬‬ ‫أما عن قوات اليوناميد )العملية المختلطة لالتحاد األفريقي واألمم المتحدة في دارفور) فقد أنشأت البعثة المشتركة لالتحاد األفريقي واألمم المتحدة‬ ‫لعمليات السالم في دارفور رسميا من قبل قرار مجلس األمن ‪ 31‬يوليو‪ ,2007‬تجدد فترة الوالية سنويا وقد تم تجديده في ‪ 31‬أغسطس ‪.2014‬‬ ‫وحددت مهامها في حماية المدنيين والمساعدة في العملية السياسية وتعزيز حقوق اإلنسان‪ ,‬ومساندة جهود الوساطة إلنهاء الصراعات القبلية‬ ‫‪134‬‬ ‫بإقليم دارفور والعمل على تسويتها‪ .‬باإلضافة إلقامتها مشاريع تستهدف الشباب والبيئة‪.‬‬

‫التعاون اإلقتصادي و التبادل التجاري بين الواليات المتحدة و السودان‬ ‫عند الحديث عن العالقات االقتصادية بين اى دولتين فأول ما يأتي على أذهان الكثير أنها بعيدة تماما ً المشكالت والعقوبات السياسية التى تتعرض‬ ‫لها أى دولتين لكن العالقت السودانية األمريكية سواء السياسة أو االقتصادية ال تنفصل كل منهما عن اآلخر حيث عرفت تلك العالقات بين البلدين‬ ‫بتشابك كل منهما باألخرى فبدأت العالقات االقتصادية بين السودان والواليات المتحدة بالتوتر والقطيعة حيث عام ‪ 1993‬أعقب وضع السودان‬ ‫على قائمة الدول الراعية لإلرهاب فرض عقوبات اقتصادية حيث منعت القروض والمنح وأيضا ً وقف جميع المساعدات والمعونات التنموية‬ ‫وأيضا ً وقف جميع أش كال التبادل التجارى إال بموجب تراخيص محدودة‪ ,‬تم تقليص جميع أشكال فرص التعاون وبناء القدرات استمرت تلك‬ ‫العقوبات واضيف إليها عقوبات أخرى خاصة بعد أزمة إقليم دارفور‪.‬‬ ‫ففي عام ‪ ،2007‬فرضت الواليات المتحدة عقوبات اقتصادية جديدة على السودان ردا على استمرار تواطؤ الحكومة في أعمال العنف التي تحدث‬ ‫في منطقة دارفور في السودان‪ .‬العقوبات تمنع أصول المواطنين السودانيين المتورطين في العنف في دارفور ومعاقبة شركة إضافية تملكها أو‬ ‫تسيطر عليها الحكومة السودانية‪.‬‬

‫ثامناً‪ :‬جنوب السودان مرحلة ما بعد االنقسام‬ ‫األهمية اإلستراتيجية لمنطقة جنوب السودان‬ ‫له أهمية استراتيجية واقتصادية جذبت اهتمام دول الغرب االستعمارية للسيطرة عليه ‪ 7000‬ألف كم‪ ، 2‬أى ما يعادل ‪ %28‬من المساحة الكلية‬ ‫للسودان البالغة ‪ 2.5‬مليون كم‪ 2‬حدوده تمتد إلى‪ 2000‬كم تقريبا ً مع خمس دول هي أثيوبيا وكينيا وأوغندا والكونغو وأفريقيا الوسطى‪.‬‬ ‫جنوب السودان الذى يكتسب أهمية خاصة فيما يتعلق ببعد األمن القومي للسودان حيث يشارك في تأمين الحدود الجنوبية مع خمس دول جوار‬ ‫جغرافي هي شرقًا ‪ :‬جمهورية أثيوبيا الديموقراطية وإريتريا‪ .‬وجنوبا ً كينيا وأوغندا وجمهورية الكونغو الديموقراطية ‪ ،‬غربا ً جمهورية أفريقيا‬ ‫الوسطى‪.‬‬ ‫كما تعتبر مطمعا لقوى عالمية حيث حيث تتوافر العديد من الثروات المعدنية الطبيعية كالنحاس والذهب والحديد فضالً عن النفط ‪ ,‬فوفقا ً‬ ‫لصادر البنك الدولي السودان يأتي كثالث دولة مصدرة للنفط في أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء وتمثل عوائد ‪ %98‬من قيمة واردات حكومة جنوب‬ ‫‪https://www.radiodabanga.org/ar/node/24408‬‬ ‫‪131‬معلومات أساسية عن بعثة األمم المتحدة في جمهورية جنوب السودان‬ ‫‪http://www.un.org/ar/peacekeeping/missions/unmiss/background.shtml‬‬ ‫‪132‬حقائق وأرقام بعثة األمم المتحدة في جمهورية جنوب السودان‬ ‫‪http://www.un.org/ar/peacekeeping/missions/unmiss/facts.shtml‬‬ ‫‪133‬قوات سالم صينية لجنوب السودان بداية ‪2015‬‬ ‫‪http://www.skynewsarabia.com/web/article/697109/%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA‬‬‫‪%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬‫‪%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A9-2015‬‬ ‫‪134‬مشاريع اليوناميد المجتمعية كثيفة العمالة تفٌوز بجائزة األمم المتحدة ‪21‬‬ ‫‪http://unamid.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=12010&ctl=Details&mid=15579&ItemID=24111&language=ar-JO‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬

‫العالقات السودانية اإليرانية خالل األعوام الماضية تقارباً‪ ،‬وصل حد التحالف اإلستراتيجي بين الدولتين صاحبتي المذاهب المختلفة‪ ،‬بعدما جمع‬ ‫بينهما تشابه الظروف واألعداء‪ .‬يعرف عن الخرطوم وطهران عداؤهما للواليات المتحدة األميركية‪ ،‬ودعمهما لحركات المقاومة الفلسطينية‪،‬‬ ‫األمر الذي ش ّكل أرضية قوية للتالقي‪.124‬‬ ‫فالواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬باعتبارها أكبر مستهلك ومستورد للنفط الخام في العالم‪ ,‬تعتبر الصين التحدى األكبر لها في القارة األفريقية‪ ،‬حيث إن بكين‬ ‫‪ ،‬استطاعت أن تصبح الحليف األكبر للقارة األفريقية‪ ،‬وال سيما للسودان‪ ،‬باعتبارها أكبر مستورد للنفط السودانى‪ ،‬والمصدر الرئيسى لتسليح‬ ‫الحكومة السودانية‪ .‬الواليات المتحدة لم تنس يوما أن النفط الذي تستفيد منه الشركات الصينية اليوم هو في األصل اكتشافاتها المبكرة حيث قامت‬ ‫شيفرون باستثمار مليار دوالر أميركي‪ ،‬وأكملت حفر‪ 52‬بئرا‪ ،‬منها‪ 34‬بئرا جاهزة للتشغيل‪ .‬وفي عام ‪1981‬م‪ ،‬أعلنت شيفرون اكتشافها حوض‬ ‫هجليج ‪ ،‬بتقديرات مخزون تجاري من البترول في حدود ‪ 236‬مليون برميل‪.‬‬ ‫نجاح الصين في أفريقيا أكسبها المزيد من خشية األميركيين وكسبيل لحماية مصالحها بدأت الواليات المتحدة في عسكرة القارة السمراء‪ ،‬في‬ ‫جيبوتي أقيمت عام ‪ 2002‬أكبر قاعدة عسكرية أميركية في القارة على مرمى حجر من أنبوب النفط السوداني الصيني على البحر األحمر حيث‬ ‫تمر نسبة هامة من اإلنتاج النفطي العالمي المنقول بالسفن وفي معظم أنحاء أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء من السنغال ومالي وموريتانيا إلى الجابون‬ ‫وحتى ناميبيا القريبة من منشآتها النفطية في أنجوال أقامت الواليات المتحدة مواقع أمامية وبدأت تدريب الجيوش المحلية باسم محاربة اإلرهاب‪.‬‬ ‫أما موقف الواليات المتحدة حول الضربات اإلسرائيلية التى وجهت للسودان متهمة إياها باستيراد األسلحة اإليرانية غامضا ً حيث لم تبدي‬ ‫الواليات المتحدة أى رد فعل تجاه تلك الضربات‪ .‬فبات التنافس األميركى الصينى اإليراني حول موارد السودان وجنوبه واضحاً‪ ،‬بعدما نجحت‬ ‫الواليات المتحدة في حشد المجتمع الدولى ضد الرئيس السودانى عمر البشير وإصدار قرار توقيف ضده من المحكمة الجنائية الدولية بزعم‬ ‫ارتكابه (جرائم ضد اإلنسانية) في دارفور‪ .‬ولذا كان من الطبيعي أن نشهد مساندة صينية إيرانية‪ ،‬السودان في المحافل الدولية‪ ،‬خاصة في مجلس‬ ‫األمن الدولي‪ ،‬بمعارضتها ألي قرار يعتزم الغرب إنفاذه في حق السودان‪.125‬‬

‫التعاون الثنائي لمواجهة الجماعات المتمردة والمليشيات‬ ‫عن الجماعات المتمردة في جنوب السودان يأتي في المقدمة جماعة العميد المنشق جورج أثور الذي تمرد على الجيش ‪ ,2010‬ويحتل عدة‬ ‫مناطق في جونقلي‪ .‬كذلك المنشق قلواك قاي المهدد الرئيسي للحركة الشعبية وحكومة جنوب السودان في والية الوحدة‪ ,‬وانشقاق الجنرال بيتر‬ ‫غاريت في مدينة الوحدة أيضا(‪ .)126‬رغم توقيع الجماعات المسلحة على قرار عفو الرئيس سلفاكير مقابل وقف اعتدائها ماعدا جماعة واحدة لم‬ ‫توقع برئاسة ديفيد ياو ياو الذي يقود ميليشيا "مورلي"العرقية التي تقاتل الحكومة في جونجلي(‪.)127‬‬ ‫عن الممارسات اإلجرامي ة لمليشيات الجنجويد "قوات الدعم السريع" وهي جماعات مسلحة من أفراد القبائل السودانية أوكلت لهم مهام أمنية‬ ‫يقومون بها عوضا عن الجيش والقوات الحكومية‪ ,‬فقد جاء الرد األمريكي شديدا ومنددا بأعمال الجنجويد‪ .‬مارست هذه المليشيات القمع والقتل‬ ‫الجماعي في مناطق دارفور وكردفان وجبال النوبة طيلة السنوات الماضية‪ 128.‬وحملت اإلدارة األمريكية الخرطوم المسؤولية بغض النظر عما‬ ‫إذا كانت الحكومة السودانية تسيطر على مليشيات الجنجويد أم ال‪ ,‬ودعت الحكومة األمريكية نظيرتها السودانية لعدم وقوع أعمال عنف ثانية‪,‬‬ ‫ووقف نشاط مليشيات الجنجويد‪.‬‬ ‫‪129‬‬ ‫ودعي وزير الخارجية األمريكي جون كيري الحكومة السودانية بالسماح لقوات اليوناميد بالتدخل في مناطق النزاع( )‪ ,‬وكانت قوات اليوناميد‬ ‫قد بدأت عملها في السودان عام ‪ 2007‬برعاية من االتحاد االفريقي بالمشاركة مع األمم المتحدة ووضع لها مهام منها حماية المدنيين وحقوق‬ ‫اإلنسان‪ ,‬وفي يناير ‪ 2014‬طلب مندوب السودان الدائم في األمم المتحدة بوضع مهام جديدة لبعثة اليوناميد هي حماية عناصر الجيش السوداني‬ ‫عند التعرض ألي هجوم من عناصر خارجية‪)130(.‬‬ ‫‪ 124‬علوية مختار‪,‬العالقات السودانية اإليرانية‪ :‬تعاون سياسي ــ عسكري أنهاه االقتصاد‪ 4 ,‬سبتمبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alaraby.co.uk/politics/884793c0-21c1-40f7-8021-98911abe477d‬‬ ‫‪125‬ياسر محجوب الحسين‪ ,‬الصين وأمريكا ‪ ...‬صراع الكبار فى مالعب الخرطوم وجوبا‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/knowledgegate/opinions/2012/5/17/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%86‬‬‫‪%D9%88%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7-%D8%B5%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B9‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A‬‬‫‪%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%B1%D8%B7%D9%88%D9%85‬‬‫‪%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%A7‬‬ ‫‪126‬مليشيات منشقة في جنوب السودان‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/news/reportsandinterviews/2011/3/14/%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%‬‬ ‫‪D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B4%D9%82%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A‬‬‫‪%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬ ‫‪ 127‬جماعات متمردة بجنوب السودان توافق على عفو سلفاكير مقابل وقف اعتداءاتها‬ ‫‪http://www.djazairess.com/ennahar/158156‬‬ ‫‪ 128‬ميليشيات الجنجويد في السودان‪ ..‬جرائم مستمرة‬ ‫‪http://www.noonpost.net/content/3166‬‬ ‫‪ 129‬امريكا تدين قتل ونهب المدنين من قبل ميليشيات الدعم السريع بقيادة حميدتى‬ ‫‪https://www.radiodabanga.org/ar/node/68499‬‬ ‫‪ 130‬السودان يطلب من األمم المتحدة تولي قوات اليوناميد مهمة حماية جيشها‬ ‫‪49‬‬

‫‪ -3‬مطلع عام ‪ 1997‬م وبدعم أمريكي تنطلق من أوغندا‪ ،‬إثيوبيا وإرتريا حملة عسكرية ضخمة تجتاح الحدود السودانية دون أن تبلغ غاياتها‬ ‫في إسقاط النظام‪ .‬ثم تتكثف الضغوط في العام ‪ 1998‬م عبر ملف حقوق اإلنسان في جنوب السودان (االسترقاق ‪ /‬اإلبادة الجماعية ) ويعقب‬ ‫ذلك قصف مصنع الشفاء في أغسطس من ذات العام‪ .‬بدأت مرحلة التعاطي اإليجابي في ديسمبر ‪ 1999‬م عقب إعالن حالة الطوارئ حيث‬ ‫جاء رد الفعل األمريكي مكتفيا بحث الخرطوم بالعمل على إنهاء الحرب األهلية وإن توقف تأييدها لإلرهاب‪ .‬ثم في عام ‪ 2000‬عرقلت‬ ‫واشنطن جهود السودان للترشيح لعضوية مجلس األمن الدولي‪ .‬مطلع عام ‪ 2001‬م وعقب تولي بوش الرئاسة أعيد فتح السفارة في واشنطن‬ ‫ورفعت الخرطوم الحظر عن زيارة المسئولين األمريكان ‪ ،‬شهدت الوالية األولى للرئيس بوش وقف إطالق النار في جبال النوبة واطالق‬ ‫مبادرة أمريكية إلنهاء الحرب األهلية أفضت إلى توقيع اتفاق نيفاشا ‪.(121)2005‬‬

‫العالقات الثنائية األمريكية السودانية في مرحلة ما بعد االنقسام‬ ‫لعبت الواليات المتحدة دورا رئيسا في المساعدة على تنفيذ اتفاقية نيفاشا لعام ‪ 2005‬التي وضعت األساس الستفتاء عام ‪ 2011‬حول حق تقرير‬ ‫مصير جنوب السودان‪ .‬ظهر االهتمام األمريكي بجنوب السودان في العام األخير لحكم بيل كلينتون‪ ،‬الذي هدد بعزل السودان سياسيا ً وفرض‬ ‫عقوبات اقتصادية ما لم يتم التوصل إلى اتفاق سالم مع الجنوب‪ ،‬وأن ينهي السودان دعمه لإلرهاب الدولي‪ .‬وعين بوش أول مبعوث خاص له‬ ‫للسودان عام ‪ 2001‬وهو جون دانفورث ‪ John Dnafourth‬الذي لعب دورا رياديا في تقريب وجهات النظر بين شمال وجنوب السودان‬ ‫بالتعاون مع منظمة "إيجاد" إلى أن باتت األجواء مهيأة للتفاوض بين الخرطوم والجنوبيين‪ .‬ونجحت جهود إدارة بوش في توصل األطراف‬ ‫السودانية إلى اتفاق السالم الشامل عام ‪ 2005‬والتى هيأت السودان إلى استفتاء ‪ 2011‬لتقرير مصير جنوب السودان‪.‬‬ ‫تجدر اإلشارة إلى أن الرئيس األمريكى كان قد دعا في شهر سبتمبر ‪ 2010‬منظمة األمم المتحدة لحشد المجتمع الدولى ‪ ،‬فال يمكن ألمريكا أن‬ ‫تخاطر برؤية السودان تنغمس من جديد في حرب أهلية بين كل من الشمال والجنوب‪ ،‬حيث أسفرت الحروب السابقة عن مصرع أكثر من مليونى‬ ‫شخص‪ ،‬وال تستطيع أمريكا قبول رؤية سيناريو " دارفور" يتكرر‪ ،‬وبالتالى فقد ظهر باراك أوباما في األمم المتحدة للدعوة إلى إجراء االستفتاء‬ ‫في الوقت المحدد‪ ،‬واستطاع الحصول على موافقة ‪ 34‬دولة على هذا الرأى‪ ،‬وكان يهدف إلى تعميم هذا الرهان عن طريق مشاركة بعض الدول‬ ‫مثل الصين ‪ -‬القادرة على استخدام وسائلها الخاصة ‪ -‬للضغط على الخرطوم‪)122).‬‬

‫موقف الواليات المتحدة من الصراعات السياسية بين الشمال و الجنوب‬ ‫لعب النفط في السودان‪ ،‬منذ اكتشافه وحتي توقيع اتفاقية السالم الشامل يناير ‪ ،2005‬دورا سلبيا ً في توتر الوضع بين الشمال والجنوب‪ ،‬وخصوصا ً‬ ‫مع السياسات الحكومية الداعمة لهذا التوتر‪ ،‬بداية بالمخاوف من اكتشاف المزيد من النفط في الجنوب‪ ،‬مرورا بعدم استفادة مناطق استخراجه‬ ‫من عائداته االقتصادية‪ ،‬هذا إلى جانب استخدام العائدات النفطية من قبل الحكومة المركزية في تسليح الجيش في حربه ضد الجنوب‪.‬‬ ‫يرجع الدور المهيمن للواليات المتحدة علي المفاوضات التى تسعى إلى حل النزاع بين السودان الشمالي والجنوبي‪ ،‬أهمها دعم مصالح الشركات‬ ‫النفطية ا ألمريكية بأن تكون لها حصة كبيرة في عمليات استخراج النفط السوداني‪ ،‬خصوصا أنها أول من اكتشف النفط بكميات يعتد بها في‬ ‫السودان‪ ،‬عن طريق شركة شيفرون األمريكية‪ .‬وتزداد أهمية هذا األمر مع تزايد االستكشافات الجديدة آلبار نفطية على الحدود بين الشمال‬ ‫والجنوب‪ ،‬وبالتا لي تزايد االحتياطي المتوقع للنفط السوداني‪ .‬ويتزايد هذا الدافع مع دخول الصين في المنطقة‪ ،‬وتمثيلها القوة األكبر في إنتاج‬ ‫النفط السوداني‪ .‬فالوصول إلى النفط كان وال يزال يتصدر أولويات األمن القومي األمريكي‪ .‬فالتحرك األمريكي نحو السودان‪ ،‬أصبح أكثر حرصا‬ ‫على استخدام ورقة النفط كأداة ضغط على حكومة الخرطوم لالنصياع للمطالب األمريكية‪ ،‬سواء تلك المتعلقة بمصالح الشركات االقتصادية‪ ،‬أو‬ ‫المتعلقة بالموقف من الجنوب ودارفور ‪ ،‬أكدت الواليات المتحدة دعم المفاوضات الرامية لمعالجة أزمة النفط في السودان‪ ،‬وجاء ذلك في تصريح‬ ‫فيكتوريا نوالند‪ ،‬المتحدثة باسم وزارة الخارجية‪ ،‬بأن الواليات المتحدة تدعم اقتراح خريطة الطريق‪ ،‬الذي تقدم به االتحاد األفريقي إليجاد اتفاق‬ ‫لألزمة النفطية‪ ،‬ووضع جدول زمني التفاق نهائي‪ ،‬والذي يتطلب من كال الطرفين االمتناع عن أي عمل من جانب واحد‪ ،‬فيما يتعلق بقطاع‬ ‫النفط‪ ،‬يؤثر سلبيا ً في مصالح الدولة األخري‪ .‬لذا‪ ،‬نددت الواليات المتحدة بشدة بالهجوم الجوي ضد آبار النفط في جنوب السودان‪ ،‬ألنه ال يهدد‬ ‫فقط تدفق النفط‪ ،‬ولكن أيضا يضر بالبنية التحتية علي المدي الطويل‪ .‬ولكن في واقع األمر‪ ،‬يأتي هذا الموقف لحماية مصالحها في السودان‪.123‬‬

‫موقف الواليات المتحدة من التوغل الصينى اإليراني‬ ‫أصبح السودان من أهم شركاء الصين و إيران التجاريين في أفريقيا وجاء ذلك في إطار خطط صينية و إيرانية اقتصادية طموحة الستغالل‬ ‫موارد القارة األفريقية‪ .‬ويذهب البعض إلى أن أكبر ضربة تلقتها الواليات المتحدة من السودان عالقاته اإلستراتيجية مع الصين وإيران‪.‬‬ ‫فكانت ثمرة العالقات المتميزة بين الصين والسودان التعاون والتبادل المشترك في مختلف المجاالت‪ ،‬اقتصاديا‪ ،‬قامت الصين بمساعدة السودان‬ ‫بتنفيذ العديد من المشروعات منها استخراج البترول وإنشاء البني التحتية مثل تشييد الطرق والجسور والسدود وتأهيل السكك الحديدية‪ ،‬كما تم‬ ‫تقديم منح ومساعدات في مجاالت العون اإلنسانى وتنمية القدرات وتوفير العمالة في شتى المشروعات المنفذة عبر الحكومة أو الشركات الصينية‪.‬‬ ‫وفي مجال االستثمار‪ ،‬دخلت شركات صينية في استثمارات صناعية وزراعية وعمرانية و كذلك في مجالي الطاقة والتعدين‪ .‬أما إيران شهدت‬ ‫‪ 121‬أثر انفصال جنوب السودان على العالقات السودانية األمريكية‪ ,‬يوليو‪2013‬‬ ‫‪http://grcsudan.org/ar/publications/2012-09-25-20-10-12/459-2013-07-04-08-19-51‬‬ ‫‪122‬لور موندوفيل‪ ,‬واشنطن تتابع عن كثب استفتاء السودان صحيفة"لوفيجارو" الفرنسية‪ ,‬يناير‪2011‬‬ ‫‪http://www.sis.gov.eg/Ar/Templates/Articles/tmpArticles.aspx?ArtID=43590#.VHX4eGd_uSo‬‬ ‫‪ 123‬نجالء مرعي‪ ,‬أعراض االنفصال‪ :‬الصراع علي النفط بين شمال وجنوب السودان‪ ,‬إبريل ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://digital.ahram.org.eg/articles.aspx?Serial=887215&eid=11699‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬

‫وبالعودة إلى تلك العالقة‪ ،‬يمكن القول إن الخرطوم تضررت منها تماماً‪ ،‬إذ قاد ذلك التقارب إلى قطع عالقات السودان بعدد من دول الخليج بما‬ ‫في ذلك السعودية‪ ،‬صاحبة االستثمارات والتعاون االقتصادي األكبر في البالد مقارنة مع إيران‪ ،‬كما ان االقتصاد السوداني محاصر‪ ،‬األمر الذي‬ ‫يصعّب عليها االستثمار في الخرطوم اقتصادياً‪.‬‬ ‫كما تعرض أكبر مصانع الخرطوم الحربية لقصف إسرائيلي في عام ‪ 2012‬بسبب إيران؛ إذ برر االحتالل وقتها الخطوة باحتواء المصنع على‬ ‫أسلحة إيرانية كان يخطط لها أن تذهب إلى قطاع غزة‪ .‬ويُضاف إلى ذلك عدد من عمليات القصف التي تكررت في شرق البالد وتبنتها إسرائيل‪.‬‬ ‫وربما قادت األزمة االقتصادية التي عاشتها الخرطوم في ظل أزمة العمالت الصعبة‪ ،‬وتدهور الجنيه السوداني مقابل الدوالر ووصوله إلى أدنى‬ ‫مستوياته‪ ،‬وتسجيل معدالت التضخم ألعلى نسبة خالل شهر يونيو ‪ 2014‬ببلوغه ‪ 46.5‬في المائة‪ ،‬الحكومة السودانية لإلعالن عن طرد الملحق‬ ‫الثقافي اإليراني وإغالق المركز الثقافي اإليراني وإمهال الملحق وطاقم المركز العامل ‪ 72‬ساعة لمغادرة البالد‪ ،‬مبررةً الخطوة بتجاوز المركز‬ ‫للتفويض الممنوح له(‪.)118‬‬

‫عسكرياً‪:‬‬ ‫وقعت حكومتا السودان وإيران في الخرطوم في‪ 7‬مارس‪ 2010‬على اتفاق تعاون عسكري شمل الجوانب الفنية والصناعية والعلمية والتدريب‪،‬‬ ‫باإلضافة إلى االتفاقية الدفاعية التي وقعها وزير الدفاع اإليراني السابق مصطفي محمد نجار عام‪.2008‬‬ ‫كان إليران دورا ً في تحول الجيش السوداني من استخدام السالح الروسي والصيني الستخدام السالح والذخيرة اإليرانية‪ ،‬وكذلك اتفق على أن‬ ‫تقوم إيران بمنح تخفيضات تصل إلى ‪ %50‬على مبيعات السالح اإليراني للسودان‪ ،‬وعلى أن تقوم إيران بمساعدة السودان في بناء قاعدة‬ ‫صناعية عسكرية إلنتاج السالح اإليراني الذي تحتاجه الخرطوم‪ ،‬حيث أقام الحرس الثوري اإليراني مصنعا إلنتاج األسلحة في الخرطوم يعرف‬ ‫باسم مصنع جياد تنفيذا لبند في اتفاقية الدفاع التي وقعت بين البلدين‪ ،‬والتي صاحبها وصول ‪ 169‬خبيرا ً إيرانيا ً في سالح الطيران والدفاع الجوي‬ ‫والحرب الصاروخية إلى السودان للعمل في إدارة قاعدة الخرطوم العسكرية الجوية لتجهيز الطائرات وتقديم الخدمات الفنية(‪.)119‬‬

‫سابعاً‪ :‬العالقات الثنائية بين الواليات المتحدة و السودان‬ ‫تاريخ العالقات الثنائية‬ ‫االهتمام األمريكي بالسودان يعود إلى عهد الرئيس السابق دوايت آيزنهاور ‪ ،1960 -1952‬الذي رمى بثقله للضغط على بريطانيا لتتوصل إلى‬ ‫تسوية مع مصر بشأن السودان حيث كان الخالف بينهما وقتها حول السيادة‪ .‬واشنطن لم تكن معنية بمستقبل السودان أو السودانيين‪ ،‬وإنما كانت‬ ‫مهتمة باإلطار األوسع للترتيبات الدفاعية التي تعتزم إبرامها لمنطقة الشرق األوسط وتحتل فيها مصر دورا محورياً‪ .‬هذه الضغوط إضافة إلى‬ ‫قيام الثورة المصرية ‪ 1952‬عجلت باتفاقية الحكم الذاتي ومن ثم االستقالل‪.‬‬ ‫في أواخر عهد الرئيس السابق جعفر النميري تدهور الوضع االقتصادي حتى لجأ السودان إلى صندوق النقد الدولي‪ ،‬لكن النظام استمر في الحكم‬ ‫ومن األسباب الرئيسية لذلك الدعم السياسي واالقتصادي الذي لقيه من إدارة ريغان ‪ ،‬التي وجدت في النميري حليفا ً قويا ً في مواجهة الخطر‬ ‫السوفيتي في ليبيا وإثيوبيا واليمن الجنوبي(‪.(120‬‬ ‫لم تستمر الهيمنة األمريكية طويالً بسبب اتجاه النميري المفاجئ للتصالح مع المعارضة إثر غزو الخرطوم في ‪ 1976‬م‪ ،‬عقد اتفاقية الدفاع‬ ‫المشترك معها بتاريخ ‪ 15‬يوليو ‪ 1976‬م ‪ ،‬ثم إلغائه عمليا التفاقية أديس أبابا ‪ -‬التي تمت برعاية أمريكية ‪ /‬ألمانية غربية ‪ /‬أثيوبية ‪ -‬بإعادة تقسيم‬ ‫الجنوب في ‪ 3‬مارس ‪.1976‬‬ ‫تعاون النظام الحقا مع اللوبي النفطي بمبادرة من بوش األب ( حينها كان سفير بالده في األمم المتحدة ) حيث اكتشفت شيفرون النفط بكميات‬ ‫تجارية عام ‪ 1979‬م بموجب اتفاق تم في ‪ 23‬نوفبر ‪ 1974‬م منحت بموجبه امتياز التنقيب في مساحة ‪ 516‬ألف كيلومتر مربع ‪ .‬في عام ‪1980‬‬ ‫م منحت شركة توتال الفرنسية حق التنقيب عن النفط ‪ ،‬ثم تبع ذلك أحداث المجاعة في دارفور و شرق السودان ‪ ،‬وعند إعالن قوانين الشريعة‬ ‫متزامنا مع تمرد الحركة الشعبية في نفس عام ‪ 1983‬م تراجع الدعم األمريكي للنميري مما ادى إلى سقوطه في العام ‪.1985‬‬ ‫تسلمت ثورة اإلنقاذ الوطني الحكم في ‪ 30‬يونيو ‪ 1989‬م إثر الهزائم المتتالية التي تعرض لها الجيش في الجنوب والنيل األزرق وتعثر مبادرات‬ ‫السالم المطروحة‪ .‬لذلك مرت تطورات العالقة بين البلدين منذ ‪ 1989‬م بثالثة مراحل‪:‬‬ ‫ُ‬ ‫‪1993 -1‬م قامت حملة شرسة على السودان حيث وضعت على قائمة الدول الراعية لإلرهاب حيث اتهمت المجموعات اإلسالمية السودانية‬ ‫باتصالها بالتنظيم الدولى اإلرهابي‪.‬‬ ‫‪1996 -2‬م يتبنى مجلس األمن الدولي اقتراحا أمريكيا بفرض عقوبات اقتصادية على خلفية محاولة اغتيال الرئيس مبارك و يتم إغالق‬ ‫السفارة األمريكية‪.‬‬

‫‪ 118‬علوية مختار‪ ,‬العالقات السودانية اإليرانية‪ :‬تعاون سياسي ــ عسكري أنهاه االقتصاد‪ 4,‬سبتمبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alaraby.co.uk/politics/884793c0-21c1-40f7-8021-98911abe477d‬‬ ‫‪ 119‬صالح خليل‪ ,‬التقارب اإليراني ‪ -‬السوداني‪ :‬األهداف والتداعيات‪ ,‬االهرام الرقمي‪ ,‬مايو ‪2011‬‬ ‫‪http://digital.ahram.org.eg/articles.aspx?Serial=648882&eid=5239‬‬ ‫‪ 120‬السر السيد احمد‪ ,‬نظرة على العالقات السودانية ـ األمريكية‪ ,‬العدد ‪2001 ,8111‬‬ ‫‪http://classic.aawsat.com/leader.asp?section=3&issueno=8111&article=25676#.VHX9mWd_uSo‬‬ ‫‪47‬‬

‫النفط وتصديره خالل عام ‪ 1999‬وأيضا ً التدفقات الكبيرة من االستثمارات األجنبية المباشرة‪ ،‬وهو ما أدى بدوره إلى دفع وازدهار االقتصاد‬ ‫السوداني وتحقيق معدل نمو جيد إلجمالى الناتج المحلي السوداني‪.‬‬ ‫وت ّم توقيع أول بروتوكول للتبادل التجاري بين البلدين في عام ‪ ،1962‬واستمر التبادل التجاري إلى أن أحتلت الصين دوليا ً موقع الشريك التجاري‬ ‫األول للسودان‪ ،‬بحجم تبادل اقتصادي بلغ عشرة أضعاف التبادل السوداني مع كافة الدول االقتصادية الكبرى‪ ،‬بالمقابل أحت ّل السودان المرتبة‬ ‫الثالثة أفريقياً‪ ،‬كشريك إقتصادي للصين‪ .‬زادت حجم التجارة بين الطرفين من ‪ 2.56‬مليار دوالر أمريكي عام ‪ 2004‬إلى ‪ 3.91‬مليار دوالر‬ ‫أمريكي عام ‪ 2005‬من مجموع الواردات‪ ،‬وبلغت حصتها ‪ 75‬في المئة من صادرات السودان للعام ‪.2006‬‬

‫النفط والبترول‪:‬‬ ‫تتصدر السودان لفترة قصيرة قائمة الدول األفريقية التي تورد النفط إلى الصين‪ ،‬إذ أمدها بـ‪ 40‬في المئة من إجمالي ما تستورده الصين من النفط‬ ‫األفريقي للعام ‪ .2002‬وتواصل المصالح النفطية والطاقة هيمنتها على صفحة األعمال التجارية للصين في السودان‪ .‬كما أن كمية النفط التي‬ ‫تستوردها الصين من السودان‪ ،‬رغم اختالف اإلحصاءات‪ ،‬باتت تتناقص من ‪ 6.4‬مليون طن عام ‪ 2002‬إلى ‪ 4.8‬مليون طن عام ‪ . 2006‬هذا‬ ‫يمثل أكثر من نصف مجموع اإلنتاج الكلي للشركة الوطنية الصينية للبترول )‪.114)CNPC‬‬ ‫شركة النفط الصينية الوطنية )‪ )CNPC‬هي أكبر مستثمر أجنبي للنفط في السودان‪ ،‬بمبلغ قدره نحو ‪ 5‬مليار دوالر موظف في تطوير حقول‬ ‫النفط‪ .‬منذ عام ‪ ،1999‬استثمرت الصين ‪ 15‬مليار دوالر على األقل في السودان وهي تمتلك ‪ 50‬بالمائة من مصفاة للنفط تقع بالقرب من الخرطوم‬ ‫بالمشاركة مع الحكومة السودانية‪.‬‬ ‫استهدفت إستراتيجية الصين النفطية تحويل السودان إلى مورد نفطي فعال‪ ،‬واقتضى ذلك بناء البنية التحتية المطلوبة والمساعدة كذلك في عمليتي‬ ‫استشكاف النفط واستخراجه‪ .‬لقد قامت شركة النيل الكبرى لعمليات البترول (‪ )GNPOC‬بمد خط أنبوب نفطي طوله ‪1600‬كيلومتر وبسعة‬ ‫‪ 200‬ألف برميل في اليوم من حقول هجليج ونتج عن ذلك ارتفاع الميزان التجاري بين البلدين من ‪ 5‬ماليين دوالر في أوائل عمر العالقة حتى‬ ‫وصل إلى ‪ 8.6‬مليار دوالر أمريكى في عام ‪ .2010‬لذلك أصبح التعاون االقتصادى السوداني الصيني أحد النماذج اإليجابية للتعاون بين الدول‬ ‫النامية والدول األفريقية ‪ ،‬ونموذجا ً يحتذى به في التعاون بين الصين و بقية الدول األفريقية‪.115‬‬

‫عسكرياً‪:‬‬ ‫مورد أسلحة رئيسي للسودان وتقوم بمساعدته على تطوير اإلنتاج المحلي لألسلحة بتقديم التكنولوجيا والمساعدة التقنية‪ .‬إن أول بيع أسلحة صينية‬ ‫مولته إيران أيام حكم الصادق المهدي (‪ ، )1986- 1989‬ثم في العام ‪ 1991‬سلمت الصين السودان‪ ،‬وفق عقد مولته إيران‬ ‫معلن إلى السودان ّ‬ ‫يقدر بنحو ‪ 300‬مليون دوالر أمريكي‪ ،‬طائرتين مروحيتين و‪ 100‬قنبلة قصف‪ ،‬وكمية ضخمة من الذخيرة‪ .‬كما تم إرسال فريق صيني‪ ،‬في ذلك‬ ‫الوقت‪ ،‬لتدريب طياريين ومالحي طائرات سودانيين‪ .‬وتواصلت عملية استيراد الطائرات العسكرية من الصين طوال تسعينيات القرن الماضي‬ ‫‪.1997‬‬ ‫تبين قاعدة بيانات التجارة لألمم المتحدة (‪ (UN COMTRADE‬ومصادر قاعدة بيانات عامة أخرى‪ ،‬دالئل على تزايد مبيعات السالح من‬ ‫الصين إلى السودان ابتداء من (‪ ,)2002‬زيادة على تصدير األسلحة إلى السودان‪ ،‬قام الصينيون بالمساعدة على تطوير صناعة األسلحة للحكومة‬ ‫السودانية(‪.)116‬‬

‫خامساُ‪ :‬العالقات السودانية اإليرانية‬ ‫ترجع مسيرة العالقات بين "السودان وإيران" إلى عام ‪ 1974‬وذلك بعد أن قامت السودان بفتح سفارة في طهران‪ .‬بعد انتصار الثورة اإلسالمية‬ ‫في إيران في عام ‪ ،1979‬واندالع الحرب العراقية اإليرانية ساءت عالقة إيران الثورة بالسودان إثر تأييد السودان للعراق في حربه على إيران‪،‬‬ ‫ولم تتحسن هذه العالقة إال بعد اإلطاحة بنظام حكم الرئيس جعفر النميري في ابريل ‪.1985‬‬ ‫عادت العالقات تتحسن وتتطور في عهد الرئيس عمر البشير الذي تولى الحكم عقب انقالب عام ‪ 1989‬يرجع هذا التحسن إلى الضغوط‬ ‫االقتصادية والسياسية التي مارستها الواليات المتحدة ضدهما تحت ذريعة رعايتهما اإلرهاب وانتهاكات حقوق اإلنسان‪ ،‬حيث اعتبرت إيران‬ ‫السودان بوابة لتصدير الثورة فضال عن الوقوف في مربع واحد في مواجهة الضغوط األمريكية وبناء تحالف ضد الواليات المتحدة(‪.(117‬‬ ‫تطورت العالقة بين البلدين في صور لجان تجارية وسياسية أدت إلى توقيع عدد من االتفاقيات المهمة المتعلقة مثالً بالتبادل المصرفي ومنع‬ ‫االزدواج الضريبي والزراعة والبناء واإلسكان والطاقة والنفط إضافة إلى مشروع إيران غاز ومشروع التعاون البحري والمالحة‪ ،‬واتفاقية‬ ‫التعاون المصرفي ومشاريع الكهرباء‪.‬‬

‫‪ 114‬تقرير السودان‪ ,‬التقييم االساسى لالمن واالنسانى‪ ,‬مسح اسلحلة صغيرة‪ ,‬االسلحة والنفط ودارفور السالح‪ ,‬تطور العالقات بين الصين والسودان‪ ,2007 ,‬العدد‪6‬‬ ‫‪http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/issue-briefs/HSBA-IB-07-Arms-arabic.pdf‬‬ ‫‪ 115‬الصين والواليات المتحدة تنخرطان فى حرب باردة من أجل الذهب األسود االفريقى‪ ,‬قاسيون‪ ,‬يونيو ‪2007‬‬ ‫‪http://www.ahewar.org/debat/show.art.asp?aid=99451‬‬ ‫‪ 116‬تقرير السودان‪ ,‬التقييم االساسى لالمن واالنسانى‪ ,‬مسح اسلحلة صغيرة‪ ,‬االسلحة والنفط ودارفور السالح‪ ,‬تطور العالقات بين الصين والسودان‪ ,2007 ,‬العدد ‪6‬‬ ‫‪http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/issue-briefs/HSBA-IB-07-Arms-arabic.pdf‬‬ ‫‪ 117‬صالح خليل‪ ,‬التقارب اإليراني ‪ -‬السوداني‪ :‬األهداف والتداعيات‪ ,‬االهرام الرقمي‪ ,‬مايو‪2011‬‬ ‫‪http://digital.ahram.org.eg/articles.aspx?Serial=648882&eid=5239‬‬ ‫‪46‬‬

‫سياسي فالبضائع اإلسرائيلية ال تستطيع المنافسة في الصين وال يمكنها الدخول إلفريقيا عبر البحر األحمر وإلى السوق السوداني وتشاد والنيجر‬ ‫ومالي‪.‬‬

‫لمحة تاريخية عن العالقات السودانية اإلسرائيلية‬ ‫في يونيو ‪ 1954‬أرسل حزب األ ّمة السوداني بزعامة صادق المهدي وفدا ً إلى لندن للحصول على الدّعم البريطاني إلستقالل السودان‪ .‬وفي أثناء‬ ‫مكوثه في لندن‪ ،‬أوعزت المخابرات البريطانيّة (أم آي ‪ )6‬إلى وفد حزب األ ّمة ليطلب المساعدة من إسرائيل‪.‬‬ ‫جرت بين حزب األ ّمة وإسرائيل في الفترة الممتدّة بين سنة ‪ 1954‬وسنة ‪ 1958‬اتّصاالت واجتماعات كثيرة ومفاوضات متشعّبة في شأن مسألتين‬ ‫عدوهما المشترك المتمثّل في مصر‪ .‬تتعلّق المسألة األولى بتقديم إسرائيل مساعدات ماليّة لحزب األ ّمة على شكل‬ ‫أساسيّتين لمواجهة ما اعتبراه ّ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫قروض لتمكينه من مواجهة النّفوذ المصري في السودان‪ ،‬وكذلك مواجهة األحزاب السودانية التي لم تكن تعتبر مصر عدوا‪ ،‬والتي كانت تدعو‬ ‫إلى وحدة وادي النيل‪.‬‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫صة في راضي المهدي زعيم حزب األ ّمة‪،‬‬ ‫أ ّما المسألة الثانية فتمحورت حول استثمار إسرائيل أمواال في مشاري َع اقتصادية في السودان‪ ،‬وخا ّ‬ ‫تدر أرباحا ً ماليّة على حزب األمة‪.‬‬ ‫وفي المشاريع التي ّ‬ ‫استمرت تلك العالقات الخفية التى تمحورت حول عداء مصر واحتياج حزب األمة إلى سيولة مالية فتجد إسرائيل من يقدم لها ذلك حتى جاء‬ ‫النميرى وتطورت تلك العالقات‪.‬‬

‫النميري وتهجير اليهود الفالشا إلى إسرائيل‬ ‫سعت إسرائيل في أواخر سبعينيات القرن الماضي لتهجير اليهود الفالشا من إثيوبيا إلى إسرائيل‪ .‬وفي العام ‪ ،1979‬طلب رئيس الحكومة‬ ‫اإلسرائيلية مناحم بيغن من رئيس مصر أنور السادات السّعي لدى الرئيس السوداني جعفر النميري من أجل السماح لليهود الفالشا بالهجرة من‬ ‫بسرية تامة‪.‬‬ ‫إثيوبيا إلى إسرائيل عبر السودان‪ .‬وقد استجاب السادات لهذا الطلب‪ ،‬وحصل على موافقة النميري المبدئية ‪ ،‬شريطة أن يجري ذلك ّ‬ ‫في بداية العام ‪ ، 1980‬وصل إلى الخرطوم مسؤول في جهاز الموساد واجتمع إلى عمر محمد الطيب رئيس المخابرات السودانية ومسؤولين‬ ‫واستمر تهجير اليهود الفالشا من طريق السودان‬ ‫سودانيين آخرين واتّفقوا على مرور الفالشا من أراضي السودان إلى كينيا ومن ث ّم إلى إسرائيل‪.‬‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫إلى إسرائيل‪ ،‬إلى أن ذاع الخبر في وسائل اإلعالم العالميّة‪ ،‬ما أدّى إلى وقف عمليّات الهجرة‪.‬‬ ‫في العام ‪ 1981‬أقام جهاز الموساد بالتعاون مع السي آي ايه "شركة سياحية" الستعمالها كغطا ًء لتهريب اليهود الفالشا الذين كانوا قد وصلوا‬ ‫إلى السودان من إثيوبيا‪ .‬وقد استأجرت هذه ال ّ‬ ‫شركة قطعة أرض سودانية تقع على البحر األحمر‪ ،‬وسرعان ما أصبحت قطعة األرض هذه قاعدة‬ ‫وهرب جهاز الموساد من خالل هذه "القاعدة" ألفين من اليهود الفالشا إلى إسرائيل من طريق‬ ‫للموساد ووحدات من كوماندو البحريّة اإلسرائيلية‪ّ .‬‬ ‫البحر األحمر‪.112‬‬

‫الهجمات اإلسرائيلية على السودان ‪:‬‬ ‫هجمات إسرائيلية وانتهاج لسياسة الغموض هكذا بدت العالقات اإلسرائيلية السودانية عقب الهجمات الداخلية المتكررة على السودان‪ ,‬ففي نهاية‬ ‫يناير وبداية فبراير ‪ 2009‬أغ ارت الطائرات اإلسرائيلية على شرق السودان مستهدفة رتل من السيارات المدنية ذات الدفع الرباعي تحت زعم‬ ‫أنها كانت تقوم بعملية تهريب أسلحة وعتاد حربي قادمة من إيران ومتجه إلى حركة حماس في قطاع غزة براً‪ .‬وفي نوفمبر عام ‪ 2011‬وقع‬ ‫هجوم جوي استهدف سيارات نقل داخل ميناء بورتسودان زعم أنها كانت تحمل أسلحة إيرانية لحركة حماس أيضاً‪ ،‬وفي أبريل من عام ‪2012‬‬ ‫استهدف صاروخ اُطلق من طائرة من دون طيار على سيارة مدنية جنوب بورتسودان ما أدي لمقتل شخص دعى أنه جزء من شبكة لتهريب‬ ‫السالح اإليراني لقطاع غزة‪.‬‬ ‫في مشهد تكرر أربع مرات من قبل‪ ،‬وفي أقل من ثالث سنوات تقريباً‪ ،‬أغارت الطائرات الحربية اإلسرائيلية على مجمع اليرموك الصناعي ‪-‬‬ ‫العسكري جنوبي العاصمة السودانية الخرطوم ما تسبب في إحداث تدمير شبه كلي بالمجمع الصناعي ‪ -‬العسكري‪ ،‬وتحديداً مخازن السالح‬ ‫داخله‪ ،‬باإلضافة لسقوط قتيلين من المدنيين‪ ،‬في حين أتى تجدد اندالع النيران بالمجمع الصناعي يوم ‪ 29‬أكتوبر‪ 2012‬مرة أخرى على ما تبقي‬ ‫من أجزاء بالمجمع الذي كان ثمرة تعاون صناعي ‪ -‬عسكري مع إيران‪ .‬وللمرة الرابعة أيضا ً تتعمد إسرائيل انتهاج سياسية "الغموض البناء"‬ ‫إزاء مسئوليتها عن هذا الهجوم الذي يُعد األخطر سواء من حيث نوعية العملية نفسها والتقنية المستخدمة فيها أو لتداعياته على األرض بالسودان‬ ‫في تدمير مجمع استثمر فيه الماليين من الدوالرات‪ ,‬فهي أن لم تتبن العملية بشكل رسمي‪ ،‬فإنها في ذات الوقت لم تنفها بشكل علني أيضا ً‪.113‬‬

‫رابعاُ‪ :‬العالقات السودانية الصينية‬ ‫اقتصادياً‪:‬‬ ‫مر االقتصاد السوداني بعدة مراحل كان لها األثر الواضح في صياغة مالمحه ‪ ،‬حيث اعتمد فيها السودان على موارده الطبيعية المتمثلة في‬ ‫األراضي الزراعية الخصبة‪ ،‬والثروة الحيوانية والمعدنية‪ ،‬والغابات والثروة السمكية‪ .‬وإن أبرز تغيير في مراحل االقتصاد السوداني هو إنتاج‬

‫‪ 111‬إيهاب شوقى‪ ,‬العالقات السودانية اإلسرائيلية (محاوالت للفهم)‬ ‫‪http://anntv.tv/new/ShowSubject.aspx?ID=51534#.VGCzGMnuexU‬‬ ‫‪ 113‬عالء سالم ‪ ,‬الغارة اإلسرائيلية على السودان‪ .‬مدلوالت التوقيت الزمني ونوعية الرسائل الداخلية والخارجية‪ 1,‬ديسمبر ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://digital.ahram.org.eg/articles.aspx?Serial=1132946&eid=584‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬

‫الحدود بين مصر والسودان التي حددتها اتفاقية الحكم الثنائي بين مصر وبريطانيا عام ‪ 1899‬ضمت المناطق من دائرة عرض ‪ 22‬شماال لمصر‬ ‫وعليها يقع مثلث حاليب داخل الحدود السياسية المصرية وبعد ثالثة أعوام أعاد االحتالل البريطاني الذي كان يحكم البلدين آنذاك مثلث حاليب‬ ‫ليصبح تابعا ً لإلدارة السودانية ألن المثلث أقرب للخرطوم منه للقاهرة‪.‬‬ ‫كان الرئيس الراحل جمال عبدالناصر أول من واجه تلك القضية‪ ،‬الذي أعلن آنذاك أن حاليب تابعة لمصر بشكل واضح‪ ،‬واقترح أيضًا إنشاء‬ ‫منطقة حرة بين مصر والسودان لحل األزمة‪ ،‬وفي عام ‪ 1958‬قام الرئيس جمال عبد الناصر بإرسال قوات إلى المنطقة إلثبات أنها مصرية فكاد‬ ‫الخالف الناشب بشأن حاليب‪ ،‬أن يتحول إلى نزاع حدودي مسلح‪ ،‬اال ان منطقة حاليب خاضعة للسيادة المزدوجة‪.‬‬ ‫وفي عهد الراحل الرئيس أنور السادات‪ ،‬لم تثر تلك القضية‪ ،‬بسبب وقوف السودان إلى جانب مصر إبان حرب ‪ 6‬أكتوبر‪ ،‬كما يذكر أن الرئيس‬ ‫الراحل السادات اقت رح إنشاء مجرى مالحي في تلك المنطقة تنتفع منه السودان ومصر على حد سواء‪ ,‬لكن النزاع ظهر مرة أخرى في عام‬ ‫‪ ، 1992‬في عهد الرئيس األسبق محمد حسني مبارك‪ ،‬حين اعترضت مصر على إعطاء حكومة السودان حقوق التنقيب عن البترول في المياه‬ ‫المقابلة لمثلث حاليب لشركة كندية‪ ،‬فقامت الشركة باالنسحاب حتى يتم الفصل في مسألة السيادة على المنطقة‪.109‬‬ ‫وال زالت ازمة حاليب قائمة وتظهر من عام الى آخر حيث التصريحات بتباعية حاليب للسودان وتصريحات مصر بان حاليب مصرية حيث‬ ‫ان االزمة عالقة بدون حلول‪.‬‬

‫ثانيا ُ ‪ :‬ليبيا‬ ‫ثمة تشابك في العالقات "الليبية ‪ -‬السودانية" بجذور تاريخية‪ ،‬حيث الصعود والهبوط في منحنى العالقات بين البلدين الجارين‪ ،‬فال يستطيع أحد‬ ‫غض الطرف عن تدخالت سلطات كل منهما في الشئون الداخلية لألخر؛ مما أرسى حالة من عدم االطمئنان يضمرها كال البلدين لآلخر‪ ،‬فكل‬ ‫اضطراب يحدث في بلد منهما (السودان ‪ -‬ليبيا) ال يستطيع أي منهما تمريره بدون الشك في دور أحدهما في االضطرابات‪.‬‬

‫السودان والثورة الليبية‬ ‫حضر السودان وبقوة في الثورة الليبية كنوع من استكمال مسلسل الحرب الخفية بين نظام البشير ونظام القذافي‪ ،‬حتى كانت األسلحة السودانية‬ ‫في مقدمة أيدي الثوار في ليبيا‪ ،‬عن طريق الحدود المشتركة بين البلدين‪ ،‬وهو ما اعترف به الثوار فيما بعد‪ ،‬حتى سقط القذافي فسارع عمر‬ ‫البشير الرئيس السوداني لزيارة مدينة بنغازي‪ ،‬مهد الثورة الليبية‪ ،‬كأول اعتراف عربي بشرعية الوضع القائم في ليبيا‪.‬‬ ‫بعد سقوط القذافي ومعاناة ليبيا من الجماعات المسلحة‪ ,‬اشتكت السودان من تسرب األسلحة الليبية إلى جماعات مناهضة للرئيس عمر البشير‪،‬‬ ‫حيث أن نظام القذافي قد سلح عدة مليشيات إفريقية أثناء الثورة في ليبيا للدفاع عنه‪ ،‬وقد تفرقت هذه المليشيات بعد سقوط القذافي‪ ،‬وعادت إلى‬ ‫أفريقيا وباتت في مخيلتها مجابهة الحكومات بها ‪ ،‬كما اعترف البشير بحصول بالده على بعض األسلحة من ليبيا وأن على الجميع التعاون للحد‬ ‫صا اإلفريقية منها‪ ،‬التي تشهد النزاعات المسلحة؛ وهكذا كان التدخل السوداني في ليبيا‬ ‫من خطر انتشار السالح الليبي في دول المنطقة‪ ،‬وخصو ً‬ ‫واض ًحا منذ اندالع الثورة وحتى هذه اللحظة‪.‬‬

‫السودان تمارس دورها في ليبيا حتى اآلن‬ ‫دورا يمارس هناك‪ ،‬حيث كانت‬ ‫عقب اشتعال الصراع في الداخل الليبي الذي يتمثل في وجود حكومتين ومجلسين تشريعيين‪ ،‬كان للسودان ً‬ ‫تصريحات إعالمية لوزير الخارجية السوداني التي تعلن عن استعداد الخرطوم للتوسط في الصراع الدائر بليبيا‪ ،‬لوقف حالة االقتتال الموجودة‬ ‫دون اإلعالن عن نية دعم أحد األطراف‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن الخفي غير المعلن هو مساعدة الدولة السودانية لقوات فجر ليبيا المحسوبة على ثوار ليبيا‪ ،‬في وجه حكومة طبرق الموالية للواء المتقاعد‬ ‫خليفة حفتر قائد العمليات‪ ،‬فيما سمي عملية "كرامة ليبيا"‪.110‬‬ ‫وبين االتهامات بدعم المليشيات الليبية وتمويلها واستمرار توتر العالقات بين ليبيا والسودان جائت زيارة عبد هللا الثني رئيس الوزراء في حكومة‬ ‫طبرق للسودان ‪ ،‬كخطوة مهمة حيث أعلن الجانبان السوداني والليبي أنهما توافقا على خطة محورية إقليمية "من دول الجوار الليبي" لحل‬ ‫األزمة الليبية‪ ,‬وأكد الرئيس السوداني عمر البشير استعداد السودان لتقديم كل ما من شأنه أن يحقق المصالحة الوطنية ودفع مسيرة التنمية في‬ ‫ليبيا‪.111‬‬

‫ثالثاُ‪ :‬إسرائيل‬ ‫السودان هى محور مهم في األجندة اإلسرائيلية‪ ,‬فبينه وإسرائيل مياه مشتركة ولو أنها ال تتعدى ‪ 6‬كيلو متر أو ثالثة ونصف كيلو متر فقط على‬ ‫البحر األحمر‪ ,‬لكنها اآلن هي سيدة الموانئ في البحر األحمر وبورتسودان من أقرب الموانئ إلى ميناء إيالت وخط أنابيب بشائر للبترول‬ ‫السوداني أيضاً‪ .‬والسودان مهم بالنسبة إلسرائيل ألنه جنوب مصر أوالً‪ ,‬وألنه مفتاح للسوق اإلفريقية إال إذا كسبت السودان أو إذا حدث تطبيع‬

‫أراض مصرية‪ 10,‬سبتمبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪ 109‬حاليب وشالتين‪..‬أزمة تعود للتجدد مرة أخرى‪..‬والسيسي يؤكد‪ :‬هي‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫‪http://www.dostor.org/674848‬‬ ‫‪ 110‬هشام الشلوي‪ ,‬العالقات الليبية السودانية‪ ,‬السودان وليبيا‪ :‬تاريخ من التدخالت‪ 28 ,‬أكتوبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.noonpost.net/taxonomy/term/3924/all‬‬ ‫‪ 111‬زيارة الثني إلى الخرطوم تفتح صفحة جديدة في تاريخ العالقات السودانية‪ -‬الليبية‪ 29 ,‬أكتوبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://arabic.news.cn/arabic/2014-10/29/c_133751904.htm‬‬ ‫‪44‬‬

‫‪َ -1‬ح ُ‬ ‫جز س ِدّ النهضة للطمي الذي أفقد ثالثة من سدود السودان (سنار والروصيرص وخشم القربة) أكثر من نصف طاقتها التخزينية‬ ‫أنهار إثيوبيا سنويا ً بين ‪ 120‬إلى ‪150‬‬ ‫للمياه والتوليدية للكهرباء‪ ،‬وأدّى إلى انهيار البنية التحتية للري في مشروع الجزيرة‪ .‬وتَحْ ِم ُل‬ ‫ُ‬ ‫مليون طن من الطمي ال ُم ْقتلَع من التربة اإلثيوبية بسبب االندفاع الشديد لهذه األنهار‪.‬‬ ‫ف الفيضانات المد ّمرة التي تجتاح مناطق النيل األزرق كل عد ٍد من السنوات‪.‬‬ ‫‪َ -2‬و ْق ُ‬ ‫‪ -3‬تنظيم إنسياب النيل األزرق وتنظيم تغذية المياه الجوفية فية خالل العام بدالً من موسميته الحالية (خالل أشهر الصيف) مما سينتج‬ ‫عنه تعدّد الدورات الزراعية‪ ،‬وتنظيم وزيادة اإلنتاج الكهربائي من س ِدّ مروي‪.‬‬ ‫كما وعدت إثيوبيا ببيع جزء من كهرباء س ِدّ النهضة للسودان ومصر بسعر التكلفة‪ ,‬وهذا السعر هو حوالى ربع التكلفة لتوليد الكهرباء في خزان‬ ‫مروي السوداني والسدّ العالي‪ .‬وكان السودان قد بدأ بالفعل في االستفادة من الكهرباء التي تقوم إثيوبيا بتوليدها من األنهار األخرى‪ ،‬وتحديداً من‬ ‫سد ّ ت ِ ّ‬ ‫َكزي على نهر عطبرة‪ ،‬بعد توقيعه على اتفاقية مع إثيوبيا لشراء الكهرباء منها الستعمالها في المناطق السودانية المجاورة ألثيوبيا‪ .‬كما‬ ‫‪106‬‬ ‫وعدت أثيوبيا بم ِدّ السودان بميا ٍه لري مشاريع السودان الزراعية في والية النيل األزرق من بحيرة س ِدّ النهضة عبر قناةٍ يمكن ش ّقها من البحيرة‪.‬‬ ‫وبالتالى تم إنهاء االرتباك والتضارب في التصريحات السودانية الرسمية حول الموقف من السد‪ ،‬وتأييد قيامه صراحة‪ ،‬حيث أعلن الرئيس‬ ‫البشير في مطلع ديسمبر‪ ، 2014‬أنه يقف بجوار رئيس الوزراء األثيوبى ديسالين في منطقة القضارف بشرق السودان حيث إن السد سيكون له‬ ‫فوائد كبرى ستعود على دول المنطقة بما فيها مصر‪ ،‬نافيًا بحماس ما تردد حول وجود أضرار له على الدول المحيطة به‪ ،‬ثم انتقل إلى دعوة‬ ‫مصر إلى االستفادة من الفوائد المتوقعة من السد‪.107‬‬

‫وثيقة سد النهضة‬ ‫وقعت مصر والسودان وإثيوبيا‪ 23 ،‬مارس ‪ ، 2015‬بالعاصمة السودانية الخرطوم وثيقة مبادئ سد النهضة‪ ،‬بحضور الرئيس المصري عبدالفتاح‬ ‫السيسي ونظيره السوداني عمر البشير ورئيس وزراء إثيوبيا هايلى ديسالين‪ .‬يتضمن االتفاق ‪ 10‬مبادئ أساسية‬ ‫اهم تلك المبادئ‪ :‬مبدأ التعاون‪ ،‬التنمية والتكامل االقتصادي‪ ،‬التعهد بعدم إحداث ضرر ذي شأن ألي دولة‪ ،‬االستخدام المنصف والعادل للمياه‪،‬‬ ‫التعاون في عملية الملء األول لخزان السد وتشغيله السنوي‪ ،‬مبدأ بناء الثقة‪ ،‬مبدأ تبادل المعلومات والبيانات‪ ،‬مبدأ أمان السد‪ ،‬مبدأ احترام‬ ‫ً‬ ‫فضال عن إنشاء آلية تنسيقية دائمة من الدول الثالث للتعاون في عملية تشغيل‬ ‫السيادة ووحدة أراضي الدولة‪ ،‬ومبدأ الحل السلمي للنزاعات‪،‬‬ ‫السدود بشكل يضمن عدم اإلضرار بمصالح دول المصب‪ .‬كما تضمن االتفاق آلية لتسوية النزاعات بين مصر وإثيوبيا‪ ،‬من بينها التشاور‬ ‫والتفاوض والوساطة والتوفيق‪ ،‬وكلها أدوات نص عليها القانون الدولي لتسوية أية خالفات قد تطرأ حول تفسير أو تطبيق بعض نصوص‬ ‫‪108‬‬ ‫االتفاق‪.‬‬

‫موقف السودان و عالقتها بمنطقة حاليب و شالتين‬ ‫"نحن نقول حاليب سودانية وستظل حاليب سودانية"‪ ...‬كلمات الرئيس السوداني عمر البشير إبان حكم الرئيس األسبق محمد مرسي‪ ،‬حيث‬ ‫نشرت الصفحات السودانية خريطة جغرافية لمصر والسودان‪ ،‬وبدا فيها استقطاع منطقة حاليب وشالتين المصرية إلى داخل األراضي السودانية‪,‬‬ ‫كما أعلنت المفوضية القومية لالنتخابات في السودان أن الوضع الجغرافي لمنطقتي حاليب وشالتين على ما كان عليه في انتخابات عام‪2010‬‬ ‫كمنطقتين تابعتين للسودان‪ ،‬وهو ما أثار القضية التي تهدد باستمرار توتر العالقات بين البلدين من جديد‪.‬‬ ‫قضية شائكة منذ عهد الرئيس الراحل جمال عبدالناصر حتى يومنا هذا‪ ،‬بالرغم من أن الحدود بين مصر والسودان والتي حددتها اتفاقية الحكم‬ ‫الثنائي بين مصر وبريطانيا عام ‪ 1899‬توضح انتماء تلك األراضي لمصر‪ ،‬إال أنه في كل عام تقريبًا‪ ،‬تتجدد أزمة حاليب وشالتين‪ ،‬حيث تلوح‬ ‫الخرطوم باالتجاه إلى التحكيم الدولي إلثبات أحقيتها في المنطقة المصرية‪.‬‬ ‫حاليب" تقع على الطرف اإلفريقي للبحر األحمر مساحتها ‪ 20,580‬كم‪ 2‬فالمنطقة تتبع مصر إداريا بحكم األمر الواقع وهي محل نزاع حدودي‬ ‫بين مصر والسودان‪ ،‬ويطلق عليها أحيانا المنطقة اإلدارية لحكومة دولة السودان‪ ,‬أغلبية السكان ينتمون لقبائل البشاريين‪.‬‬

‫تاريخ النزاع‪:‬‬ ‫بعدَ ْ‬ ‫سودان ‪2‬‬ ‫أن أصب َح سد النهض ِة اإلثيوبي حقيقةً واقعة‪ :‬خِ ياراتُ ال ُ‬ ‫‪http://arabi.assafir.com/article.asp?aid=1338&refsite=arabi&reftype=leftmenu&refzone=comments‬‬ ‫‪ 107‬السودان وسد النهضة‪ ,‬هانىء رسالن‪ ,‬فبراير ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://digital.ahram.org.eg/articles.aspx?Serial=1542825&eid=18159‬‬ ‫‪ 108‬مبادئ وثيقة الخرطوم وخطة سد النهضة‪ ,‬العربية‪ 23 ,‬مارس ‪2015‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alarabiya.net/ar/arab-and‬‬‫ ‪world/egypt/2015/03/23/%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9 %84%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84‬‬‫‪%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A6 -%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A9‬‬‫ ‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%B1%D8%B7%D9%88%D9%85‬‬‫ ‪%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B1‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%85 -%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%AF‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%87%D8%B6%D8%A9.html‬‬ ‫‪43‬‬

‫ مجلس الوزراء ‪ :‬يُش ّكل رئيس الجمهورية مجلس الوزراء‪ ،‬الذي يتولى التخطيط في الدولة ومشاريع القوانين والموازنة القومية والمعاهدات‬‫الدولية واالتفاقيات والوقوف على األداء التنفيذي في الدولة ومراجعته‪.‬‬ ‫رئيس مجلس الوزراء في الشمال ‪ :‬عمر حسن أحمد البشير ويساعده نائب لرئيس الجمهورية بكري حسن صالح‪.‬‬ ‫رئيس الوزراء في الجنوب‪ :‬سلفاكير ونائبه جيمز ووني إيجا‬ ‫‪ ‬السلطة التشريعية‪ :‬تتكون الهيئة التشريعية القومية من مجلسين‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -1‬المجلس الوطني‬ ‫‪ -2‬مجلس الواليات‬ ‫ البرلمان السوداني(المجلس الوطني)‪:‬عدد المقاعد‪ 354 :‬مقعدا ً‪ ,‬عمر المجلس ‪ 3‬سنوات‪ .‬رئيس المجلس هو الفاتح عز الدين ‪.‬‬‫ مجلس الواليات‪:‬عدد المقاعد )‪ ، )34‬يتكون من ُممثِلين اثنين لكل والية يُنتخبان بواسـطة المجلس التشريعي للوالية( برلمان الوالية)‪.‬‬‫السلطة التشريعية بجنوب السودان تتمثل في‪:‬‬ ‫تتكون الهيئة التشريعية بجنوب السودان من مجلسين‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -1‬المجلس الوطني التشريعي و يتألف من ‪ 332‬عضوا ً ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -2‬مجالس الواليات ويتألف من ‪ 50‬عضوا ً ‪.‬‬ ‫السلطة القضائية في السودان واحدة شماالً وجنوبا ً ‪ :‬فالسلطة القضائية مستقلة عن السلطة التنفيذية والتشريعية وكذلك هي مستقلة ماليا ً واداريا ً‬ ‫ورئيس القضاء في الجمهورية هو رئيس السلطة القضائية ورئيس المحكمة القومية العليا‪.‬‬ ‫المحكمة الدستورية‪ :‬أنشئت بموجب الدستور‪ ،‬تتكون من ‪ 9‬قضاة‪ ،‬وهي مستقلة عن السلطتين التشريعية والتنفيذية ومنفصلة عن السلطة القضائية‪,‬‬ ‫ومهمتها هي حماية الدستور وحماية حقوق اإلنسان والحريات العامة والفصل في دستورية القوانين والنزاعات الدستورية بين مستويات الحكم‬ ‫وأجهزته ولها اختصاص جنائي في مواجهة رئيس الجمهورية ونائبه ورئيس مجلس الهيئة التشريعية القومية وقضاة المحكمة العليا(‪.)104‬‬

‫األحزاب السياسية السودانية‪:‬‬ ‫حزب المؤتمر الوطني الحاكم‪ :‬برز حزب المؤتمر الوطني عام ‪ ،2000‬بعد انفصال الحركة اإلسالمية إلى المؤتمر وطني بقيادة الرئيس‬ ‫عمر البشير ومؤتمر شعبي برئاسة حسن الترابي‪.‬‬ ‫الحركة الشعبية لتحرير السودان ‪ :‬كانت الحركة الشعبية حتى عام ‪ 2005‬فصيال مسلحا ظل يقاتل الحكومات السودانية المتعاقبة من عام‬ ‫‪ .1983‬وبعد توقيع اتفاق السالم الشامل مع الحكومة السودانية في يناير ‪ 2005‬تحولت الحركة إلى حزب سياسي وشاركت في حكم الشمال‬ ‫كما انفردت بحكم الجنوب‪.‬‬ ‫المؤتمر الشعبي‪ :‬أسس حسن الترابي حزب المؤتمر الشعبي بعد خالفه مع الرئيس السوداني عمر البشير‪ .‬وانضم إلى الترابي عدد ممن‬ ‫يسمون بـ "شيوخ الحركة اإلسالمية" مثل إبراهيم السنوسي وأحمد عبد الرحمن ويس عمر اإلمام ‪ ،‬كما انضم إليه عدد من كوادر الحركة‬ ‫اإلسالمية الموصوفين بالتشدد ممن قاتلوا في جنوب السودان‪.‬‬ ‫حزب األمة القومي‪ :‬يعتبر حزب األمة القومي بزعامة الصادق المهدي من أعرق األحزاب السودانية‪ ،‬حيث تأسس قبل استقالل السودان‪,‬‬ ‫ويعتبر حزب األمة القومي الواجهة السياسية لطائفة األنصار الذين استمدوا اسمهم من "نصرة" اإلمام محمد أحمد المهدي الذي قاد ثورة‬ ‫ضد الحكم التركي في القرن التاسع عشر‪)105( .‬‬

‫سادساً‪ :‬العالقات الخارجية السودانية‬ ‫أوالُ‪ :‬مصر‬ ‫دور السودان و موقفها من سد النهضة اإلثيوبى‬ ‫يستخدم السودان فقط ‪ 12‬مليار متر مكعب من نصيبه من مياه النيل بموجب اتفاقية مياه النيل للعام ‪ 1959‬التي حدّدت نصيبه بـ ‪18.5‬مليار‪.‬‬ ‫اتسم الموقف السوداني من سد النهضة بالتحول التدريجي من التناول المتوازن بواسطة الخبراء والمتخصصين للجوانب المختلفة لسد النهضة‬ ‫كمنشأة ذات أثر خطير على األوضاع المائية للسودان ومصر‪ ،‬إلى الحديث عن قيام السودان بدور الوسيط أو المسهل للمفاوضات بين مصر‬ ‫وإثيوبيا‪.‬‬ ‫تحول الموقف بطريقة غير مباشرة إلى موافقة غير معلنة على السد‪ ،‬وتصاحبت مع ذلك بيانات رسمية عبر وزارتي الخارجية والموارد المائية‬ ‫تعلن أن سد النهضة كله فوائد وليس فيه أضرار أو آثار سالبة على السودان ومن بين هذه الفوائد‪:‬‬

‫‪104‬جمهورية السودان‪ ,‬االمانة العامة لمجلس الوزراء‪ ,‬نظام الحكم فى السودان‬ ‫‪http://www.sudan.gov.sd/index.php/ar/pages/details/63/%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D 9%85‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%85#.VHX-OtKsWSp‬‬ ‫‪ 105‬عمر عبد العزيز‪ ,‬أبرز األحزاب السياسية السودانية‪BBC ,‬عربي‪ 7 ,‬ابريل ‪2010‬‬ ‫‪http://www.bbc.co.uk/arabic/middleeast/2010/04/100407_sudan_parties_tc2.shtml‬‬ ‫‪42‬‬

‫تم االستقالل عن بريطانيا في ‪ 1956‬دون وجود ترتيبات مؤسسية كافية أو وجود توافق وطنى بين الشمال والجنوب حول نظام الدولة‪ ،‬رأى‬ ‫الجنوبيين أن النظام الفيدرالى هو الحماية الوحيدة لهم من التبعية للشمال‪ ،‬ورأى الشماليين أن الفيدرالية هى الخطوة األولى نحو االنفصال وأن‬ ‫الحكم يجب أن يظل مركزيا‪ .‬تجدر اإلشارة أن نظام الحكم في السودان لم يشهد استقرارا ً منذ االستقالل وذلك لتعدد قيام االنقالبات العسكرية مع‬ ‫غياب الديموقراطية‪.‬‬ ‫بدأت شرارة الحرب بين الشمال والجنوب قبل تحقيق االستقالل من بريطانيا‪ ،‬وفي ظل الخوف من عدم الحصول على حكم ذاتي‪ ،‬بيد أن البداية‬ ‫الحقيقية للحرب األهلية كانت في ‪ 1964‬بعد إتباع الفريق إبراهيم عبود أول رئيس للسودان برنام ًجا ألسلمة وتعريب الجنوب‪ ،‬أدى األمر إلشعال‬ ‫احتجاجات في الجنوب زادت من حدة الحرب األهلية إلى أن انتهى األمر بتوقيع اتفاق السالم في أديس أبابا في‪ ،1972‬وتم االتفاق على إعطاء‬ ‫الجنوب حكما ذاتيا‪ ،‬وتعيين رئيس إقليمى للجنوب من قبل الرئيس السودانى وقد أسهم هذا في تحقيق سالم نسبى‪.‬‬

‫الحرب األهلية الثانية ‪2005– 1983‬‬ ‫تعتبر الحرب األهلية السودانية الثانية كارثة كبرى في تاريخ السودان حيث تعتبر إحدى أطول وأعنف الحروب في القرن وراح ضحيتها ما‬ ‫يقارب ‪ 1.9‬مليون من المدنيين‪ ،‬ونزوح أكثر من ‪ 4‬ماليين منذ بدء الحرب‪ .‬ويعد عدد الضحايا المدنيين لهذه الحرب أحد أعلى النسب في أي‬ ‫حرب منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية‪ ،‬انتهى الصراع رسميا مع توقيع اتفاق نيفاشا للسالم في يناير ‪ 2005‬واقتسام السلطة والثروة بين حكومة رئيس‬ ‫‪101‬‬ ‫السودان عمر البشير وبين قائد قوات الحركة الشعبية لتحرير السودان جون قرنق‪.‬‬

‫استفتاء ‪ 2011‬و التاييد الشعبي لإلنفصال‬ ‫كانت مجموعة من اإلتفاقيات أبرمت في يناير ‪ 2005‬بين الحركة الشعبية لتحرير السودان وحكومة السودان اهمهم اتفاقية السالم الشامل "نيڤاشا"‬ ‫كان الغرض منها إنهاء الحرب األهلية السودانية الثانية وتطوير نظام حوكمة ديمقراطي في جميع أنحاء البالد وتقاسم عائدات النفط‪ .‬باإلضافة‬ ‫لذلك فقد وضعت جدوالً زمنيا ً سيجري حسبه في جنوب السودان استفتا ًء على االستقالل أو البقاء ضمن السودان‪.‬‬ ‫و بناء على هذا االتفاق عام ‪ 2009‬أقر البرلمان السوداني قانون االستفتاء على تقرير مصير الجنوب في جلسة انسحب منها نواب جنوب البالد‬ ‫بسبب خالف حول حقوق التصويت لسكان الجنوب المقيمين في الشمال‪)102(.‬‬ ‫‪ 9‬يناير وحتى ‪ 15‬يناير ‪ 2011‬اجرى استفتاء حول ما إذا كان سكان جنوب السودان يرغبون بالبقاء بدولة واحدة مع السودان أو االنفصال بدولة‬ ‫مستقلة ‪ ,‬اختار ‪ 99‬في المائة من الذين شاركوا في االقتراع االستقالل عن الشمال‪.‬‬ ‫‪103‬‬ ‫وأصبحت جنوب السودان جمهورية مستقلة عاصمتها جوبا و رئيسها سلفاكير‪.‬‬

‫خامساً‪ :‬النظام السياسي السوداني‬ ‫نظام الحكم بالسودان ما بعد االنفصال "النظام السياسي في الشمال و الجنوب"‬ ‫الحكومة في السودان سواء الشمال أو الجنوب حكومة ديمقراطية منتخبة منذ ابريل‪2010‬م‪ .‬نظام الحكم رئاسي حتى بعد االنفصال‪ ،‬وينتخب‬ ‫رئيس الجمهورية وح ّكام الواليات عبر االقتراع الحر المباشر‪ ،‬أما البرلمان االتحادي وبرلمانات الواليات تتم االنتخابات لها عبر نظام هو‬ ‫خليط بين االقتراع الحر المباشر والتمثيل النسبي‪ ,‬فاز المؤتمر الوطني بأغلبية األصوات في هذه االنتخابات وشكل الحكومة الحالية في الشمال‬ ‫كما فاز سيلفاكير وشكل حكومة الجنوب‪.‬‬ ‫نظام الحكم في السودان يتكون من ثالث سلطات‬

‫السلطة التشريعية‬

‫‪‬‬

‫السلطة التنفيذية‬

‫السلطة القضائية‬

‫السلطة التنفيذية‪ :‬تتكون السلطة التنفيذية القومية من رئاسة الجمهورية ومجلس الوزراء القومي‪.‬‬ ‫ رئيس الجمهورية ‪ :‬هو رأس الدولة والحكومة وينتخب الرئيس لوالية مدتها خمسة أعوام قابلة للتجديد مرة واحدة‪ .‬رئيس جمهورية شمال‬‫السودان هو‪ :‬الرئيس‪/‬عمر حسن أحمد البشير ‪ ,‬ونائبة بكري حسن صالح‪ .‬ورئيس جمهورية الجنوب‪ :‬الرئيس سالفا كير ونائبه جيمز ووني‬ ‫إيجا‪.‬‬

‫‪ 101‬قصة السالم السوداني ‪ 37‬عاما من الحرب فصلت بينها ‪ 10‬سنوات سالم فيها أكثر من مليونين وشرد مثلهم والضحايا شعب بأكمله‬ ‫‪http://classic.aawsat.com/details.asp?article=236371&issueno=9313#.VGTT9Gd_uSp‬‬ ‫‪102‬جنوب السودان‪...‬تاريخ من األزمات‬ ‫ ‪http://www.aljazeera.net/news/arabic/2010/10/22/%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86 -%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AE‬‬‫‪%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA‬‬ ‫‪103‬جنوب السودان‪99" :‬بالمئة مع اإلنفصال"‬ ‫‪http://www.bbc.co.uk/arabic/middleeast/2011/01/110121_south_sudan_latest.shtml‬‬ ‫‪41‬‬

‫بعد قيام الحكم الثنائي (المصري‪-‬البريطاني) في السودان عام ‪ 1899‬قامت سياسة حكومة الخرطوم التي كان يسيطر عليها الجانب اإلنجليزي‬ ‫تجاه السودان على سياستين‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -1‬إضعاف الوجود الشمالي في الجنوب ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -2‬إضعاف الثقافة العربية‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -3‬منع انتشار اإلسالم‪ .‬وهو األمر الذي تكفلت به اإلرساليات التنصيرية التي أطلق لها حرية العمل الديني في الجنوب على عكس‬ ‫الشمال‪ ،‬حيث قيدت هذه الحرية بميادين التعليم والخدمات الصحية‪.‬‬ ‫و من هنا ظهر مفهوم االنقسام ويمكن تلخيص تاريخ انقسام السودان في المراحل التالية‪:‬‬

‫مراحل االنقسام و الدعم الخارجي لترسيخ هذا المفهوم في المنطقة‪:‬‬ ‫مرحلة تمهيد األرض ‪1919 -1899‬‬ ‫أهمها عام ‪ ،1910‬والذى يمثل نقطة البدء في االتجاة نحو تطبيق السياسات البريطانية لفصل الجنوب عن الشمال حيث سعت اإلدارة البريطانية‬ ‫إلى التخلص من الوجود العربي بالسودان حيث كان الوجود العربي اإلسالمي في المديريات الجنوبية يتمثل في ثالث مجموعات‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬قوات الجيش المصري المتمركزة في الجنوب‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬الموظفون المصريون والسودانيون ممن كان تحتاج إليهم اإلدارة في الجنوب‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .3‬التجار الشماليون الذين كان يعمل بعضهم لحسابه الخاص والبعض اآلخر لحساب بيوت تجارية في الشمال‪.‬‬ ‫وللتخلص من تهديدات المجموعة األولى تم تجنيد السودانيين الجنوبيين وتشكيل ما يعرف "بالفرقة االستوائية"‪ .‬وانتهى األمر بخروج آخر جندي‬ ‫من القوات السودانية الشمالية من الجنوب ‪ ,1917‬كما فرضت اللغة اإلنجليزية في التعليم‪.‬‬

‫مرحلة بناء األسوار ‪1946 -1919‬‬ ‫"ال يجوز ألي شخص من غير أهالي السودان أن يدخلها ويبقى فيها إال إذا كان حامال رخصة بذلك‪ ،‬ويجوز للسكرتير اإلداري أو مدير‬ ‫المديرية منع أي شخص من أهالي السودان من دخول تلك الجهات أو البقاء فيها" اإلعالن البريطاني بإغالق مناطق جنوبية عام‪.1922‬‬ ‫‪ 1920‬يعتبر من أهم األعوام التى أظهرت فيه الحكومة البريطانية أسبابها لدعم السبُل التى تسعى النفصال السودان حيث تم إصدار مذكرة‬ ‫بريطان ية جاء فيها " إن سياسة الحكومة هي الحفاظ بقدر اإلمكان على جنوب السودان بعيدا عن التأثير اإلسالمي ‪ ،‬ففيه يتم توظيف المأمورين‬ ‫السود‪ ،‬وعندما تقتضي الضرورة إرسال كتبة من المصريين يختارون من األقباط‪ ،‬وأصبح يوم األحد هو يوم العطلة بدال من يوم الجمعة‪ ،‬وأخيرا‬ ‫تشجيع المشروعات التنصيرية‪.‬‬ ‫بعد عامين من إصدار الحكومة البريطانية لهذه المذكرة صدر أمر "الجهات المغلقة "‪ " Closed Districts‬الذي تضمن جدوالً بجهات معينة‬ ‫تشمل مديرية بحر الغزال ومديرية ومديرية أعالي النيل وغيرها من المديريات‪ ،‬حيث تقرر منع دخول أى فرد من غير أهالى السودان إلى تلك‬ ‫المناطق بل وان يحمل من هم من شمال السودان تراخيص لدخول تلك المديريات‪.‬‬

‫الحصاد ال ُمر ‪1955 -1946‬‬ ‫أثناء الحرب العالمية الثانية وبعد إنشاء المجلس االستشاري لشمال السودان‪ ,‬كتب مدير المديرية االستوائية يوم ‪ 14‬أغسطس ‪ 1943‬طالبا ً إعادة‬ ‫النظر في السياسة المتبعة في الجنوب‪ ،‬وكتب مدير المعارف أن سياسة الحكومة في جنوب السودان قد أدت إلى تخلفه إذا ما قورن بالشمال‪.‬‬ ‫أسباب انقالب السياسة البريطانية‪:‬‬ ‫‪ - 1‬ظهور عدد غير قليل من األحزاب السودانية يدعو أغلبها لوحدة وادي النيل وأقلها مثل حزب األمة الذي تأسس عام ‪ 1945‬إلى استقالل‬ ‫السودان بكامل حدوده الجغرافية‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -2‬رأى البريطانيين أن إقامة مدرسة ثانوية في الجنوب يمثل أقصى المتاح‪ ،‬ولكن ماذا عن أبناء الجنوب الراغبين في مزيد من التعليم بعد‬ ‫المرحلة الثانوية‪ ،‬اإلجابة كانت في كلية غوردن بالخرطوم‪ ،‬وأنه البد مع هذا االحتمال تعليم طالب المرحلة الوسطى وما بعدها اللغة العربية‪.‬‬ ‫بقى الوضع كما هو عليه حيث السعى البريطانى إلصالح السياسات التى وضعتها في جنوب السودان وفقا لتلك المذكرات واإلدانات حتى جاءت‬ ‫اتفاقية فبراير ‪ 1953‬بين مصر وبريطانيا لتقرير مصير السودانيين وبالفعل عام ‪ 1955‬حصلت السودان على استقاللها و تم تشكيل أول حكم‬ ‫وطنى سودانى برئاسة إسماعيل األزهرى(‪.(100( )99‬‬

‫ما بعد االستقالل "الحرب األهلية السودانية األولى"‪:‬‬

‫‪ 99‬قضية جنوب السودان‪.....‬النشأة والتطور‪ ,‬العدد ‪( 286‬عدد خاص بجنوب السودان)‪،‬اكتوبر‪2010-‬م‬ ‫‪http://www.al-waie.org/issues/286/article.php?id=973_0_74_0_C‬‬ ‫‪ 100‬مشكلة جنوب السودان‪.....‬أصل النشأة األولى‪ ,‬يونان لبيب رزق‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/specialfiles/pages/a6e8fdc4-c8e5-466b-a4aa-00ca7de18e85‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬

‫يتميز نهر النيل وروافده بموارد مائية هائلة تغطي حوالي ‪ 25000‬كم مربع ويقدر اإليراد السنوي لنهر النيل بحوالي ‪ 58.9‬مليار متر مكعب‬ ‫يسهم فيها النيل األزرق بحوالي ‪ ،%58.9‬ويلعب النيل دورا حيويا في حياة السكان االقتصادية واالجتماعية والثقافية‪ ،‬وفي عالقات السودان‬ ‫الخارجية خاصة مع دول حوض النيل‪)94).‬‬

‫السكان‬ ‫عدد سكان السودان اكثر من ‪ 33‬مليون نسمة وفق التقدير اإلحصائي لعام ‪2011‬م‪ ,‬حيث يتركز غالبهم حول حوض النيل‪ ،‬وأكبر كثافة سكانية‬ ‫في واليتي الخرطوم وجنوب دارفور تليها والية الجزيرة من حيث الترتيب‪ ,‬وتؤكد الحكومة السودانية أن نسبة المسلمين من العدد الكلي للسكان‬ ‫تبلغ ‪ %96.7‬ونسبة المسيحيين ‪ %3‬ونسبة منتسبي ديانات أخرى في واليتي النيل األزرق وجنوب كردفان ‪)95(.%0.3‬‬

‫االقتصاد‬ ‫رغم غنى السودان بثرواته المعدنية‪ ،‬إال أن دورها في االقتصاد الوطني اليزال محددا ً للغاية‪ .‬إال أنه مع ذلك يملك السودان اقتصاداً متنوعا حيث‬ ‫يصدّر المواشي والجلود والصمغ العربي والذهب‪ ،‬كما توجد فيه ثروات معدنية غير مستغلة‪ ،‬ومساحات شاسعة من األراضي الخصبة غير‬ ‫المزروعة‪ ،‬التي يقول المختصون إنها يمكن أن تصير "سلة الغذاء العربي" لو استغلت استغالالً صحيحا ً‪.‬‬

‫ البترول‬‫فقدت الخرطوم ‪ %75‬من إنتاج البالد النفطي‪ ،‬وخسرت مليارات الدوالرات من العائدات النفطية بعد انفصال الجنوب في‪.2011‬‬ ‫ويعتمد السودان على تصدير النفط بشكل رئيسي‪ ،‬بدأ البحث عن البترول منذ عام ‪ 1959‬في منطقة البحر األحمر ثم تحول البحث في السبعينيات‬ ‫إلى غرب وجنوب السودان‪ ,‬في عام ‪ 1996‬بدأ اإلنتاج (‪ 10.000‬برميل في اليوم) لالستهالك المحلي حيث تم تشيد وتشغيل مصفاة األبيض‪ .‬في‬ ‫سبتمبر ‪ 1999‬بدأ اإلنتاج التجاري والتصدير (‪ 150.000‬برميل في اليوم) بعد أن اكتمل خط األنابيب الناقل من حقول البترول في بانتيو والوحدة‬ ‫وهجليج إلى ميناء بشائر إلى ساحل البحر األحمر (‪1619‬كم) ‪ ,‬كذلك اكتمل تشييد مصفاة الخرطوم بغرض التسويق المحلي وتحقيق االكتفاء‬ ‫الذاتي من مشتقات البترول‪.‬‬ ‫تبلغ جملة المخزون النفطي للبالد ‪ 5‬مليار برميل‪ ،‬فيما يصل المخزون الفائض لالستخالص ‪ 1.1‬مليار برميل ينتج منه ‪ 376‬مليون برميل‪,‬‬ ‫‪96‬‬ ‫إضافة الى ‪ 15‬الف برميل أواخر ‪2011‬م من حقلي بليلة والفولة و‪ 55‬الف برميل نهاية ‪ 2012‬ليرتفع اإلنتاج إلى (‪ )70‬ألف برميل‪.‬‬ ‫ الذهب‬‫تحتل السودان المرتبة الثالثة إفريقيا من إنتاج الذهب حيث يتركز إنتاجه حاليا ً في منطقة أرياب بوالية البحر األحمر‪ .‬ووصل اإلنتاج في عام‬ ‫‪ 1998‬إلى ‪ 5.67‬طن من الذهب الخالص بعائد إجمالي قدره حوالي ‪ 54‬مليون دوالر‪ ,‬تقدم موقع السودان في التصنيف العالمي للدول المنتجة‬ ‫للذهب حيث بلغ إنتاج الذهب في النصف األول من العام ‪ 10 2011‬طن مقارنة بـ ‪ 34‬طن في يناير ـ سبتمبر عام ‪ 2012‬بنسبة زيادة بلغت‬ ‫‪ %304‬وبلغ صادر الذهب ‪ 34‬طنًا للفترة من (يناير ـ سبتمبر) لعام ‪ 2012‬بعائدات وصلت ‪ 1.7‬مليار دوالر وشكل صادر الذهب نسبة ‪%70‬‬ ‫من جملة الصادرات ‪.97‬‬ ‫يضاف إلى هذا الغاز الطبيعي الذي تم اكتشافه بكميات وفيرة في منطقة البحر األحمر‪ ،‬كما أن هناك معادن أخرى كثيرة أهمها الحديد والكروم‬ ‫والنحاس والزنك والمايكا والجبس واالسبستوس بدأ استغالل بعضها تجارياً(‪.(98‬‬

‫رابعاً‪ :‬تاريخ االنقسام السوداني‬ ‫بداية ظهور مفهوم االنقسام ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 94‬جغرافيا السودان‪ ,‬الموقع والمساحة‬ ‫‪http://www.sudanway.sd/geography.htm‬‬ ‫‪ 95‬وزارة الخارجية‪ ,‬جمهورية السودان‪ ,‬حجم وخصائص السكان‬ ‫‪http://mofa.gov.sd/new/more.php?main_id=7&sub_id=57&id=24‬‬

‫‪ 96‬بترول السودان ‪ ..‬بداية الملحمة الثانية‪ ,‬جمهورية السودان وزارة الدفاع‪ ,‬يناير ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://mod.gov.sd/index.php/section-blog/78‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1/9871‬‬‫‪%D8%A8%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%84‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬‫‪%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AB%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9.html‬‬ ‫‪ 97‬السودان يتقدم فى التصنيف العالمي للدول المنتجة للذهب‪ ,‬نوفمبر ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://alintibaha.net/portal/%‬‬ ‫‪ 98‬خالد سليمان‪,‬االستقالل ‪ 58 ...‬عاما ً والسودان يقرر لذاته‪ ,‬وزارة الدفاع السودانية‪ ,‬ديسمبر‪2013‬‬ ‫‪http://mod.gov.sd/index.php/section-blog/78-58-html‬‬ ‫‪39‬‬

‫من أهم الدوافع التى أدت إلى رضوخ الشعب السوداني لتلك الثورة بالتزامن مع قيام الثورة العُرابية في مصر وضعف الحكم فيها باإلضافة إلى‬ ‫شخصية المهدى القوية وكثرة أنصاره وغيرها من الدوافع التى تعتبر أسبابا ُ كافية لنجاح الثورة المهدية‪.‬‬ ‫استطاعت الثورة المهدية في بداية األمر االنتصار على الحكم التركى المصرى بزعامة محمد المهدى اال انها فشلت في النهاية وترجع اسباب‬ ‫فشلها إلى‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬وفاة المهدي في السنة الثانية بعد سقوط الخرطوم‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬وقوف حركة التجارة وانتشار األوبئة والمجاعات‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .3‬اختالف القبائل مع ضعف القيادة وجهلها‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .4‬المظالم والفظائع التي ارتُكبت من بعض أنصار المهدية‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .5‬إعادة تنظيم الجيش المصري وأسلحته‪ ،‬وحسن قيادته ونشاط مخابراته‪(89(.‬‬

‫السودان تحت الحكم البريطاني المصري ‪1956-1898‬م‬ ‫في عام ‪1899‬م تم توقيع اتفاقية الحكم الثنائي بين بريطانيا ومصر حيث سمحت بموجبها برفع العلمين البريطاني والمصري فوق السودان‪ .‬بعد‬ ‫غزو السودان بدأ اإلنجليز في تنفيذ سياستهم حيث تم وضع حدود جغرافية جديدة للسودان‪ ,‬كما استعانت حكومة الحكم الثنائي بضباط مصريين‬ ‫وتعيين مصريين كمدرسين وقضاة بالمحاكم الشرعية إال أن اإلنجليز كانوا يتحكمون في هذه األعداد خوفا ً من انتشار الدعاية المصرية المعادية‬ ‫لبريطانيا في السودان‪.‬‬ ‫أعطت الحكومة الغازية زعماء القبائل وشيوخها صالحيات واسعة وأخرى قضائية‪ ,‬خاصة زعماء قبائل الرحل بحكم طبيعة نشاطهم‬ ‫االقتصادي وقد كان ذلك في ‪1922‬م ‪ .‬كما أن أحداث ثورة ‪1919‬م في مصر دفعت الحكومة البريطانية إلى طرد كثير من التنفيذيين‬ ‫المصريين بالسودان ‪.‬‬ ‫كانت سياسة الحكومة البريطانية هي إعطاء فرص قليلة جدًا للسودانيين في التعليم شريطة أن يكون تعلي ًما مهنيًا لكي يربط بين الدراسة‬ ‫والوظيفة وبذلك يمكن تفادي انتشار الوعي واالنتفاضات الوطنية بعد أحداث ثورة ‪1924‬م وإمعانا ً في تهميش دور التعليم)‪.(90‬‬

‫استقالل السودان ‪ 1956‬وبداية الحكم الوطنى‬ ‫"إن شعبنا قد صمم على نيل االستقالل فناله وهو مصمم على صيانته وسيصونه" رئيس وزراء حكومة االستقالل إسماعيل األزهرى(‪(91‬‬ ‫في عام ‪ 1938‬شكل مجموعة من السودانيين ما يسمى بمؤتمر الخريجين‪ ,‬ويهدف هذا المؤتمر إلى تصفية االستعمار ومنح السودانيين حق تقرير‬ ‫المصير‪ ,‬ولكنهم انقسموا بين عدة آراء فمنهم من رأى الوحدة مع مصر‪ ،‬وإما االستقالل التام عن الدولتين ‪ ,‬حتى إن لم يكن المؤتمر ناج ًحا بما‬ ‫يكفي ولكنه كان بمثابة الخطوة األولى تجاه تقرير المصير‪.‬‬ ‫بدأت المفاوضات بين حكومتي الحكم الثنائي إنجلترا ومصر بشأن تشكيل لجنة دولية تشرف على تقرير المصير في السودان‪ ,‬واجتمع البرلمان‬ ‫السوداني في عام ‪1955‬م‪ ،‬وأجاز مقترحات حددت مطالب البالد ومنها إعالن استقالل السودان واالستجابة لمطالب الجنوبيين و تكوين جمعية‬ ‫تأسيسية‪ ,‬وأجمع البرلمان على االستقالل وعلى أن يصبح السودان دولة مستقلة ذات سيادة‪ .‬وفي األول من يناير عام ‪1956‬م تم إنزال العلم‬ ‫ورفِع العلم السودانى وإعالن السودان جمهورية ديموقراطية عربية‪ ,‬وانضمت إلى‬ ‫البريطانى والعلم المصرى من على األراضى السودانية ُ‬ ‫جامعة الدول العربية في ‪ 19‬يناير من نفس العام)‪. (92‬‬

‫ثالثاً‪ :‬األهمية اإلستراتيجية لجمهورية السودان‬ ‫الموقع والمساحة‪.............................................................................................................. :‬‬ ‫تقع في الجزء الشمالي الشرقي من القارة اإلفريقية ‪ ،‬وتبلغ مساحتها مليونا ً و‪ 884‬ألف كيلومتر مربع‪ ،‬وفقدت ‪ %25‬من مساحتها بعد إنفصال‬ ‫الجنوب لتتراجع بذلك من المرتبة األولى في إفريقيا إلى المرتبة الثانية بعد الجزائر‪ ،‬وإلى المرتبة الثالثة عربيا ً بعد الجزائر والسعودية‪.‬‬ ‫تجاور السودان سبع دول هي جنوب السودان (انفصلت عن السودان في يوليو ‪ )2011‬وإريتريا واثيوبيا وإفريقيا الوسطى وتشاد وليبيا ومصر‪.‬‬ ‫وتعد العربية اللغة الرسمية‪ ،‬وهناك لغات محلية سائدة كالنوبية وغيرها‪ ،‬إضافة إلى اللغة اإلنجليزية(‪.)93‬‬

‫‪ 89‬السودان من التاريخ القديم الى رحلة البعثة المصرية (الجزء األول)‪ ,‬عبد هللا حسين‪ ,2012,‬الفصل الثامن والعشرون‪ ,‬الثورة المهدية‬ ‫‪ 90‬السودان في عهد الحكم الثنائي ‪1956-1898‬م‬ ‫‪http://www.sudanway.sd/history_EgyptianEnglishRule.htm‬‬ ‫‪ 91‬الخطاب األول للسيد اسماعيل االزهري بمناسبة إستقالل السودان‬ ‫‪https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E01g3-Yvdbc‬‬ ‫‪ 92‬سياسات االنجليز بعد غزو السودان‬ ‫‪http://www.sudanway.sd/history_EgyptianEnglishRule.htm‬‬ ‫‪ 93‬خالد سليمان‪ ,‬االستقالل ‪ 58 ..‬عاما ً والسودان يقرر لذاتة‪ ,‬ديسمبر ‪2013‬‬ ‫‪http://mod.gov.sd/index.php/section-blog/78-58-.html‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬

‫أفغانستان في الشرق‪ .‬جنبًا إلى جنب مع حلفائها في المنطقة ‪-‬وبتعاون الواليات المتحدة مع إيران‪ -‬يمكن تشكيل نظام أمنى إقليمي لمحاربة التهديد‬ ‫األمني الكبير والوشيك لمصالح وأمن جميع األطراف المعنية‪.‬‬

‫السودان ‪ ......‬تحدي داخلي وصراع إستراتيجي‬ ‫أوالً‪ :‬التمهيد‬ ‫السودان‪ ,‬دولة مهمة وقطر من أقطار إفريقيا ال يمكن إنكار وجوده أو إهمال دوره التاريخي في األحداث التي مرت وال تزال تمر بها القارة‬ ‫اإلفريقية‪ .‬للوهلة األولى تراها دولة ضعيفة مليئة بالصراعات الداخلية إال أن واقعها غير ذلك‪ ,‬فموقعها الجغرافي وعالقاتها الخارجية‪ ,‬جعلت‬ ‫من السودان "دولة المعاناة" حيث شهدت العديد من الصراعات سواء الداخلية أو الخارجية إال أن دورها في المنطقة اليزال مطموسا ً على الرغم‬ ‫من تأثيرها ال يريد أحد االعتراف به‪.‬‬ ‫شهدت جمهورية السودان حقب زمنية مختلفة مرت بها العديد من الحكومات التي عملت على تغيير تلك المنطقة‪ ,‬خاصة بعد االنفصال وأصبحت‬ ‫السودان الشمالي والسودان الجنوبي كل منهما يعمل على بسط نفوذه في المنطقة باإلضافة إلى الصراعات النفطية‪ ,‬مجاعات‪ ,‬انتهاكات‪ ,‬صراعات‬ ‫سلطوية‪ ,‬جماعات مسلحة‪ ,‬خالفات حدودية‪ ,‬استثمارات خارجية وعقوبات دولية‪ .‬ملخص لما تمر به السودان شماالً وجنوباً‪ ،‬استقالل أعقبه‬ ‫استقرار تلك هي الحقيقة التي لم تستطيع السودان في تحقيقة حتى االن‪.‬‬

‫رسم توضيحي ‪ 1.2‬خريطة جمهورية السودان‬

‫ثانيا‪ :‬لمحة تاريخية عن الجمهورية السودانية‬ ‫السودان تحت الغزو التركي المصري‬ ‫كانت الحاجة إلى بناء جيش قوي‪ ,‬وحماية حدود مصر الجنوبية‪ ,‬والقضاء على بقايا المماليك الذين هربوا إليها‪ ,‬من األسباب التي دفعت محمد‬ ‫علي باشا إلى التفكير في االتجاه لفتح السودان‪ ,‬حيث تجلت أهمية السودان في زيادة سكانه وبالتالى زيادة عدد جنود جيش محمد علي فيصبح‬ ‫لديه الموارد البشرية الكافية‪ ,‬وبالفعل استطاع محمد علي السيطرة على السودان عام ‪)87).1820‬‬ ‫حاول محمد علي باشا ومن خلفه في الحكم إدخالها العديد من المفاهيم والنظم الجديدة للسودان‪ ,‬إال أن الظلم واستعباد أهالى السودان واستغالل‬ ‫مواردهم أدى بشعب السودان إلي غض نظرهم عن تلك اإلنجازات ومحاولتهم التخلص من الحكم التركى المصرى حيث قامت الثورة المهدية‬ ‫إلسترجاع السودان إلى أهلها‪) 88(.‬‬

‫الثورة المهدية على الحكم التركي المصري (‪:)1898-1885‬‬ ‫"هواي هواي أسري المهدي في قدير ‪ ،‬بشائر الخير جاءت لنا ‪ ،‬واليوم ظهر مهدينا"‬ ‫هكذا بدا ترحيب الشعب السودانى لقائد الثورة المهدية محمد أحمد المهدى بن عبد هللا‪ ،‬والذى أعلن أنه المهدى المنتظر‪ ,‬حيث انتظر السودانيين‬ ‫هذا المهدي المنقذ‪ .‬وكان الشعور بالظلم والتمرد على الظالم‪ ,‬ومنع تجارة الرقيق‪ ,‬وتعدد القبائل والعشائر في السودان ومنازعاتها‪ ,‬وحب االستقالل‬

‫‪ - 87‬موسوعة السودان الرقمي‪ ,‬الحكم التركي المصري‬ ‫‪http://www.sudanway.sd/history_EgyptianTurkishRule.htm‬‬ ‫‪ 88‬السودان من التاريخ القديم الى رحلة البعثة المصرية (الجزء األول)‪ ,‬عبد هللا حسين‪2012,‬‬ ‫‪37‬‬

‫وتعد حقوق اإلنسان والقيود المفروضة على حرية التعبير‪ ،‬وحرية التج ّمع واألديان مثيرة ً للمخاوف بشك ٍل خطير في إيران‪ .‬فالدولة تحكم السيطرة‬ ‫على وسائل اإلعالم‪ ،‬وتح ّ‬ ‫ظر بشك ٍل دوري االطالع على المواقع اإللكترونية وسائر وسائل اإلعالم‪ .‬وقد خضع المجتمع المدني للقمع بشك ٍل كبير‬ ‫تعرض الناشطون المدنيون للسجن أو الضرب‪ .‬أما التظاهرات الشعبية فيردّ عليها في غالب األحيان بالعنف من قبل أمن الدولة‪. 84‬‬ ‫وغالبا ً ما ّ‬ ‫أثناء انتخابات إيران الرئاسية والمحلية في ‪ 14‬يونيو كان العشرات من أعضاء أحزاب المعارضة وراء القضبان يمضون عقوبات بالسجن‪ ،‬وقد‬ ‫ُمنعوا من المشاركة في اال نتخابات‪ .‬وظل قيد االحتجاز المنزلي أو رهن االحتجاز‪ ،‬شخصيات المعارضة مير حسين موسوي‪ ،‬وزهرا رهنورد‬ ‫ومهدي كروبي‪ .‬في ‪ 21‬مايو أمر مجلس الوصاية‪ ،‬وهو هيئة غير منتخبة قوامها ‪ 12‬من القانونيين من رجال الدين‪ ،‬بنزع استحقاق المشاركة‬ ‫عن ‪ 680‬مرشحا ً رئاسيا ً باستثناء ‪ 8‬مرشحين منهم‪ ،‬باستخدام معايير فضفاضة تمكن السلطات من استبعاد المرشحين بشكل متعسف وعلى نطاق‬ ‫واسع‪ .‬غير أن الناخبين المشاركين في العملية االنتخابية كانوا كثيرين‪ ،‬وانتخبوا رجل الدين والدبلوماسي السابق حسن روحاني الذي وعدت‬ ‫حملته االنتخابية بـ "ميثاق للحقوق المدنية" وتحسين حالة االقتصاد‪ ،‬والمزيد من التواصل السياسي مع الغرب‪.‬‬ ‫بعد تنصيب روحاني رئيسا أفرجت السلطات في سبتمبر عما ال يقل عن ‪ 12‬ناشطا ً حقوقيا ً وسجينا ً سياسياً‪ ،‬لكن ظل الكثيرون وراء القضبان‬ ‫جراء انتماءاتهم ألحزاب معارضة محظورة ونقابات وجماعات طالبية‪ .‬واستمر القضاء في استهداف النقابات المستقلة غير المسجلة‪.‬‬ ‫أعلن وزير العلوم اإليراني المؤقت – المسؤول عن إدارة جامعات إيران – في سبتمبر عن أن الجامعات ستعيد إلى صفوفها أساتذة وطلبة تم‬ ‫فصلهم جراء أنشطتهم السياسية في الفترة من ‪ 2005‬إلى ‪ ،2012‬وال يزال العشرات غير قادرين على المضي قدما ً في دراستهم وعملهم‬ ‫الجامعي‪.85‬‬ ‫صنّفت منظمة صحفيون بال حدود إيران في المرتبة ‪ 173‬من بين ‪ 180‬بلدا ً على مستوى العالم في مجال حرية الصحافة‪ ،‬وبذلك تكون إيران من‬ ‫بين الدول الخمس األكثر قمعا ً للصحافيين‪ ,‬حيث إنه رغم مرور عام على انتخاب حسن روحاني رئيسا ً إليران إال أنه لم يحصل هناك أي تقدم‬ ‫في مجال حرية اإلعالم‪ ،‬وما زالت إيران تعتبر أكبر سجن للصحافيين‪ .‬وطالبت المنظمة السلطات اإليرانية باإلفراج عن ‪ 58‬صحافيا ً‬ ‫ومدونا ً من‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫السجون‪ ،‬ورفع الحظر عن الصحف ووسائل اإلعالم التي تم توقيفها‪ ,‬حيث ذكر البيان أن معظم الصحافيين الذين يقبعون في السجون تم اعتقالهم‬ ‫عقب احتجاجات عام ‪ 2009‬ومنهم شخصيات معروفة مثل‪ :‬أحمد زيد آبادي‪ ،‬سراج الدين ميردامادي‪ ،‬وكيوان صميمي‪ ،‬وبهمن أحمدي أمويي‪،‬‬ ‫والصحافي اآلذري سعيد متين بور‪ ،‬وغيرهم ممن حكم عليهم بالسجن ما بين ‪ 5‬أعوام إلى ‪ 20‬عاما ً‪.86‬‬

‫عاشرا‪ :‬مستقبل العالقات الثنائية وخيارات الواليات المتحدة اإلستراتيجية‬ ‫عنصرا أساسيًّا في السوق العالمية للطاقة‪ ،‬فاحتياطاتها الهائلة من النفط والغاز الطبيعي وموقعها اإلستراتيجي في الخليج‪ ،‬وبحر‬ ‫تعد إيران‬ ‫ً‬ ‫دورا مه ًما في تشجيع االستقرار في المنطقتين ‪.‬‬ ‫قزوين يجعل لها ً‬ ‫لقد اتسمت العالقات بين واشنطن وطهران على مدى ما يزيد على عشرين عا ًما بالشك والعداء المكشوف‪ ,‬فالواليات المتحدة اعتبرت طهران‬ ‫بمنزلة تهديد لالستقرار في الشرق األوسط عن طريق معارضة النظام اإليراني لعملية السالم العربية اإلسرائيلية‪ ،‬ودعم اإلرهاب‪ ،‬والسعي‬ ‫المتالك برنامج نووي‪ .‬ولكي يتسنى تقييد قدرة إيران على تحقيق هذه األهداف‪ ،‬أعلنت الواليات المتحدة عما يمكن تسميته بالحرب االقتصادية‬ ‫ضد إيران‪ ،‬وباإلضافة إلى فرض العقوبات االقتصادية عمدت واشنطن إلى االستعانة بأوراق الضغط السياسية والمالية التي في أيديها عن طريق‬ ‫المؤسسا ت الدولية لعزل إيران وحرمانها من الموارد المالية التي تحتاجها بشدة‪ ،‬ويعتبر ضغطها على البنك الدولي‪ ،‬ومنظمة التجارة العالمية من‬ ‫أبرز األمثلة على ذلك‪.‬‬ ‫إال أن تغيير النظام السياسي في إيران ‪ 2013‬والتي دفعت بحسن روحاني رئيسا ً لها بدت مالمح التقارب اإليراني األمريكي حيث الدخول في‬ ‫مفاوضات يشأن البرنامج النووي مقابل رفع بعض العقوبات عن إيران‪ ,‬لذلك يعتبر النجاح في التوصل إلى اتفاق بشأن القضية النووية من شأنه‬ ‫إغالق صفحة مريرة في العالقات المضطربة بين إيران والواليات المتحدة األميركية‪ ،‬وسيفتح األبواب أمام التقدم في مناطق النزاعات األخرى؛‬ ‫وربما األهم أن يتم التعاون بين البلدين‪ ،‬والعمل على تحقيق االستقرار في منطقة الشرق األوسط‪ ،‬الذي يعاني األزمات من لبنان في الغرب إلى‬

‫‪ 84‬إيران وحرية التعبير والصحافة‪2013 ,‬‬ ‫‪https://www.ndi.org/iran-arabic‬‬ ‫‪ 85‬التقرير العالمي ‪ :2014‬إيران‬ ‫‪http://www.hrw.org/ar/world-report/2014/country-chapters/122027‬‬ ‫‪ 86‬مراسلون بال حدود‪ :‬إيران ما زالت أكبر سجن للصحفيين‪ ,‬يونيو ‪2014‬‬

‫‪http://www.ujcenter.net/uj/?p=3915‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬

‫من قبل أشخــاص دون الثامنـة عشـرة‪ ،‬حتـى إن بعـض أحكام اإلعدام تنتهك أيضا القانون المحلي اإليرانـي‪ ،‬الـذي يشتـرط محـاكمة األطفـال‬ ‫دون الثامنة عشرة أمام محاكم خاصة باألحداث‪.81‬‬ ‫ولم يتوقف األمر عند هذا الحد فإيران رفضت بعض بنود اتفاقية حقوق الطفل لألمم المتحدة والتي ألزمت بقرارها جميع دول العالم بحظر‬ ‫زواج األطفال ووضع القوانين الالزمة لمنعه ومعاقبة المتخلفين عن هذا القرار وتنفيذ هذه القوانين‪ ,‬حيث تعتبر إيران سن ‪ 9‬و‪ 15‬عاما ً قمريا ً‬ ‫للفتيات والفتيان على التوالي هي انتهاء الطفولة وبدء السن القانوني للجنسين‪.‬‬ ‫وبينما تظهر اإلحصائيات الرسمية للمنظمة الوطنية للتسجيل المدني اإليرانية أن عدد حاالت الزواج التي تم تسجيلها للفتيات دون ‪ 15‬عاما‪ً،‬‬ ‫يفوق ‪ 41‬ألف شخصا ً في عام ‪ .2013‬وحسب تقديرات النشطاء المدنيين عدد حاالت الزواج التي لم يتم تسجيلها‪ ،‬ال يقل كثيراً عن عدد‬ ‫الحاالت المسجلة للفتيات دون ‪ 15‬عاماً‪ .‬ووفقا ً لإلحصائيات الرسمية‪ ،‬تشكل حاالت الزواج المسجلة للفتيات دون ‪ 15‬عاماً‪ ،‬وللفتيات اللواتي‬ ‫تتراوح أعمارهن بين ‪ 15‬و‪ 19‬عاماً‪ 5.3 ،‬في المئة ‪ 30‬بالمئة من جميع حاالت الزواج المسجلة في عام ‪.2013‬‬ ‫وأكد تقرير المقرر الخاص لألمم المتحدة أنه تم تسجيل ما ال يقل عن ‪ 1537‬حالة زواج للقاصرات دون سن ‪ 10‬سنوات في عام ‪ 2012‬فقط‪.‬‬ ‫ويظهر تقرير منتدى االقتصاد العالمي أن إيران هي إحدى أكثر الدول اضطهادا ً للمرأة وتمييزا ً بين الجنسين في العالم‪ ،‬وأنها حصلت على‬ ‫مرتبة متدنية جدا ً في التقرير الجديد لـ «مؤشر الفجوة بين الجنسين في العالم» وهي مرتبة ‪ 137‬من ‪82.142‬‬

‫حقوق األقليات‬ ‫تمنع الحكومة حرية المعتقد الديني ألتباع البهائية‪ ،‬وهي أكبر أقلية دينية غير مسلمة في إيران‪ .‬نظمت السلطات حملة استهدفت البهائيين‬ ‫في مدينة سمنان شمالي البالد‪ .‬طبقا ً لمنظمة "الجامعة البهائية العالمية" تم إغالق ما ال يقل عن ‪ 17‬شركة ومكان عمل بهائياً‪ ،‬و ُحكم على ‪22‬‬ ‫بهائيا ً بالسجن لمدد تتراوح بين ‪ 6‬أشهر و‪ 6‬سنوات منذ عام ‪ .2009‬كان هناك ‪ 111‬بهائيا ً محتجزين في السجون اإليرانية في سبتمبر ‪.2012‬‬ ‫تميز السلطات في المشاركة السياسية والتوظيف ضد األقليات المسلمة من غير الشيعة‪ ،‬ومنهم السنة‪ ،‬الذين يمثلون نحو ‪ 10‬في المائة من السكان‪.‬‬ ‫كما تمنع السنة من بناء المساجد بالمدن الكبرى و من تنظيم صلوات العيد بشكل منفصل‪ .‬استمر استهداف الحكومة للصوفيين‪ ،‬ال سيما أعضاء‬ ‫طائفة نعمة اللهي جنابادي‪.‬‬ ‫في سبتمبر أفرجت السلطات عن يوسف نادرخاني‪ ،‬وهو راع لكنيسة تقع في شمالي إيران تضم في عضويتها ‪ 400‬شخص‪ ،‬بعد ثالث سنوات‬ ‫في السجن بناء على اتهامات بالردة‪ ،‬يُعاقب عليها باإلعدام‪ .‬خففت السلطات من اتهام نادرخاني إلى "تبشير المسلمين" وخففت عقوبته إلى السجن‬ ‫ثالث سنوات‪ ،‬وقد قضاها بالفعل‪ .‬طبقا ً ألحمد شهيد‪ ،‬مقرر األمم المتحدة الخاص لحقوق اإلنسان في إيران‪ ،‬فقد قبضت السلطات تعسفا ً على أكثر‬ ‫من ‪ 300‬مسيحي واحتجزتهم‪ ،‬وأغلبهم إنجيليون وبروتستانت‪ ،‬وذلك منذ يونيو ‪.2010‬‬ ‫قيدت الحكومة من األنشطة الثقافية والسياسية في أوساط أقليات األزيري واألكراد والعرب والبلوش في إيران‪ .‬احتجزت قوات األمن وعذبت‬ ‫وأعدمت العشرات من النشطاء العرب في جنوب غرب خوزستان منذ عام ‪ .2011‬وحسبً نشطاء حقوق األقلية العربية‪ ،‬هناك ستة أشخاص‬ ‫على األقل عُذبوا حتى الموت رهن االحتجاز على صلة بالمظاهرات المعارضة للحكومة التي عمت خوزستان بين أبريل ‪ 2011‬وفبراير‪.2012‬‬ ‫‪83‬‬

‫حقوق التعبير عن الرأي وحرية التظاهر والتجمع‬ ‫بعد تولي الرئيس اإليرانى الحالى حسن روحانى إدارة شئون البال د ‪ ,‬تفاءل البعض بأن حقوق اإلنسان داخل إيران ستشهد حالة من‬ ‫التحسن‪ ,‬وهذا ما وعد به بالفعل روحانى خالل حملته االنتخابية ‪ ,‬و لكن األمور لم تسر على هذا النهج على اإلطالق ‪ ,‬ففى تقرير صادر من‬ ‫األمم المتحدة فى نوفمبر ‪ 2014‬لم يأت التقرير فى صالح إيران على اإلطالق بل حمل فى طياته عالمات استفهام كبيرة ضد الرئيس روحانى ‪,‬‬ ‫وذكر التقرير أنه منذ توليه رئاسة الجمهورية فى الثالث من أغسطس ‪ , 2013‬تم تنفيذ ‪ 852‬حكم إعدام ‪ ,‬و هو رقم أكبر من الرقم المسجل فى‬ ‫العام الذى سبقه فقد سجل فيه ‪ 580‬حالة إعدام ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 81‬القضاء اإليراني يتمسك بتنفيذ حكم االعدام على األطفال‪ ,‬نوفمبر‪ ,2014‬العدد ‪9743‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alarab.co.uk/?id=38313‬‬ ‫‪ 82‬إيران ترفض قرار األمم المتحدة بشأن حظر زواج األطفال‪ ,‬محمد المذحجى‪ ,‬ديسمبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alquds.co.uk/?p=260351‬‬ ‫‪ 83‬التقرير العالمي ‪ :2013‬إيران‬ ‫‪http://www.hrw.org/ar/world-report-%5Bscheduler-publish-yyyy%5D/2013-6‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫لكن الغموض اإليراني هو سيد الموقف‪ ,‬فإيران لم تعلن دعما ً أو رفضها ً لوجود داعش في العراق أو حتى مساعدتها للحكومة العراقية لمواجهة‬ ‫تلك الج ماعات المسلحة؛ فعندما أعلنت الواليات المتحدة ودول أجنبية وعربية أخرى للتحالف وتوجيه ضربات جوية ضد داعش في العراق‪ ,‬لم‬ ‫تصرح إيران بموقفها اتجاه تلك الضربات‪ ,‬حتى دعت الواليات المتحدة إليران بمشاركة دول التحالف ضد هذا التنظيم‪.‬‬

‫تاسعاً‪ :‬حقوق اإلنسان وملف الحريات والديموقراطية وحقوق المرأة والطفل في إيران‬ ‫حقوق المرأة‪:‬‬ ‫احتلت إيران المرتبة الخامسة والخمسين عالميا ً في مكانة متوسطة بين الدول المدروسة على مستوى احترام المرأة‪ ،‬بعد أن كانت تمثل‬ ‫أبرز النماذج غير الغربية في احترام حقوق المرأة إبان حكم الشاه وفقا ً للمنتدى االقتصادي العالمي في إبريل ‪.2014‬‬ ‫تدهور وضع المرأة فى إيران وانتهاك حريتها ال يزال يضع إيران بين الدول التي تعتبر رسميا تميز وتنتهك حقوق المرأة بكل الطرق حيث‬ ‫تواجه المرأة اإليرانية التمييز فيما يخص األحوال الشخصية‪ ،‬المتعلقة بالزواج والطالق والمواريث والوصاية على األبناء‪ .‬يجب أن تحصل‬ ‫المرأة على موافقة ولي أمرها الرجل كي تتزوج بغض النظر عن عمرها‪ ،‬وال يمكن أن يحصل أبناؤها على الجنسية إن كان زوجها أجنبياً‪ .‬ال‬ ‫يحق للمرأة الحصول على جواز سفر أو أن تسافر للخارج دون موافقة كتابية من ولي أمرها‪.‬‬ ‫لم تستطع المرأة في إيران أن تحتل أكثر من ‪ %3.1‬من المقاعد في المؤسسات التمثيلية لعام ‪ .2012‬قدرة المرأة على الحصول على فرص‬ ‫متساوية في التعليم (الثانوي على األقل)‪ ،‬حيث لم تتحصل سوى ‪ %39‬من النساء في إيران عام ‪ ،2010‬على هذه الفرصة‪ ،‬مقابل ‪ %75.2‬من‬ ‫الرجال‪ ,‬وهو ما انعكس بالتالي على قدر تها على الحصول على فرص عمل‪ ،‬حيث لم تتجاوز نسبة مشاركة المرأة في القوى العاملة ‪%32.5‬‬ ‫لعام ‪ ،2008‬بل وتراجعت تلك النسبة في ظل التدهورات الحاصلة في القطاع االقتصادي اإليراني لتبلغ حد ‪.% 16.4‬‬ ‫وتشن الشرطة الدينية في إيران حملة قمعية مع بداية كل فصل ربيع‪ ،‬لمراقبة سلوك النساء على مستوى اللباس‪ ،‬وتشكل الحملة التي بدأت منذ‬ ‫أسابيع‪ ،‬األعنف بين الحمالت السابقة‪ ،‬بدعم من التيار المتشدد الذي بدأ حمالت على مواقع التواصل االجتماعي لمناهضة ما أسماه "قلة حياء‬ ‫المرأة"؛ إذ يفرض عليهن لبس "الشادور" وهو الزي الديني للمرأة في إيران‪ ،‬ويتسع هذا الفرض ليشمل كل فئات المجتمع الدينية بغض النظر‬ ‫عن انتمائهن‪ ،‬دون أن يترك لهن حرية اختيار طريقة شكل الحجاب كذلك‪ ،‬وهو ما أحدث ردات فعل نسوية حاولن الخروج على هذا الزي‪.‬‬ ‫وتُح َّمل المرأة في هذه الحمالت‪ ،‬المسؤولية عن سلوك المجتمع تجاهها‪ ،‬سواء لناحية االعتداءات اللفظية أم التحرش الجنسي‪ ،‬أو السلوك العنفي‬ ‫تجاهها‪ ،‬ورغم ّ‬ ‫أن القانون ال ينص صراحة على زي محدّد‪ .‬سنت السلطات اإليرانية عدة قوانين جائرة بحق النساء‪ ،‬من أبرزها منع النساء‬ ‫العازبات دون أربعين عاما ً من السفر خارج البالد بمفردهن دون موافقة أولياء أمورهن‪ ،‬ومنعهن من ممارسة العديد من الوظائف‪ ،‬ومن أبرزها‬ ‫مهنة القضاء‪ ،‬وقد أدانت منظمة العفو الدولية منع النساء من الترشح لمنصب رئاسة الجمهورية‪.80‬‬ ‫ومن أبرز األمثلة التي تؤكد أبشع االنتهاكات التي ترتكبها إيران في حق المرأة هي إعدام "ريحانة جابري" ‪ 26‬عاما ً في ‪ 25‬أكتوبر‬ ‫‪ 2014‬بعد أن أدينت بقتل مسؤول سابق في االستخبارات اإليرانية أكدت أنه اعتدى عليها جنسيا ً ومع هذا فإن المحكمة اإليرانية لم تأخذ بشهادتها‬ ‫بل ولم تسع لبحث حقيقة ما قالته أو الوصول إلى أدلة تدين ريحانة فصدر حكم اإلعدام ضدها‪ ,‬وغيرها من األحكام المماثلة التي تؤكد أن إيران‬ ‫ال تعرف شيئا ً عن حقوق المرأة‪.‬‬

‫حقوق الطفل‬ ‫تعد االنتهاكات التي تمارس ضد الطفل في إيران من أشد ما يتعرض له الطفل عالميا فعقوبة اإلعدام على األطفال دون سن الثامنة عشرة‬ ‫هي أهم ما يسيطر على انتهاك حقوق الطفل اإليراني نفذت إيران حكم اإلعدام بحق ‪ 17‬حدثا ً جانحا ً على األقل منذ بداية عام ‪ ،2004‬أي ثمانية‬ ‫أضعاف أي دولة أخرى في العالم‪ ،‬دون أن تأخذ بعين االعتبار تقارير المنظمات الحقوقية وتوصياتها‪.‬‬ ‫وأصدرت السلطات القضائية العليا في إيران مرارا العديد من األحكام المؤيدة إلعدام أحداث جانحين متهمين بجرائم ارتكبوها عندما كانوا في‬ ‫سن الخامسة عشرة‪ ,‬وتُعتبر هذه األحكام انتهاكا اللتزامات إيران بالمعاهدات الدولية‪ ،‬والتي تحظر فرض عقوبة اإلعدام على الجرائم المرتكبة‬

‫‪ 80‬المرأة اإليرانية‪ :‬بين التمييز واالعتداء على حقوق االنسان‪ ,‬عبد القادر نعناع‪ ,‬مايو ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://almezmaah.com/ar/news-print-5426.html‬‬ ‫‪34‬‬

‫جاءت األزمة اليمنية ‪ 2014‬ومحاولة الحوثيين السيطرة على اليمن واالنقضاض على السلطة نموذجا ً لتوجيه االتهام المباشر إليران بمساعدة‬ ‫الحوثيين وإمدادهم بالدعم المالي والعسكري واإلعالمي للسيطرة على اليمن‪ ,‬إال أن إيران لم تخف عالقتها بالحوثيين خاصة بعد تقديم هادي‬ ‫استقالته وصعود الحوثيين إلى طاولة المفاوضات حيث صرح علي شيرازي ممثل المرشد اإليراني األعلى علي خامنئي في فيلق القدس التابع‬ ‫للحرس الثوري‪ ،‬في وقت سابق بأن "جماعة الحوثي (أنصار هللا) في اليمن هي نسخة مشابهة من حزب هللا في لبنان‪ ،‬وستدخل هذه المجموعة‬ ‫الساحة لمواجهة أعداء اإلسالم"‪ ،‬على حد تعبيره‪.‬‬ ‫وأكد شيرازي خالل حوار مع موقع "دفاع برس" التابع للقوات المسلحة اإليرانية‪ ،‬أن "الجمهورية اإلسالمية تدعم بشكل مباشر الحوثيين في‬ ‫اليمن وحزب هللا في لبنان و"القوات الشعبية" في سوريا والعراق"‪ ،‬مشيرا ً إلى أن مسؤولي الدولة أكدوا هذه النقطة مرات عديدة"‪.‬‬ ‫وكان مست شار المرشد األعلى واألمين العام للمجمع العالمي للصحوة اإلسالمية‪ ،‬علي أكبر واليتي‪ ،‬قد قال إن "إيران تدعم الحوثيين في‬ ‫اليمن‪ ،‬وتعتبر هذه الحركة جزءا ً من الحركات الناجحة للصحوة اإلسالمية"‪77.‬‬ ‫وهذا يعني أن إيران حليف قوي للحوثيين في اليمن ولها مصالح مهمة في المنطقة‪ ،‬حيث يعتبر مضيق باب المندب أحد أهم أسباب‬ ‫محاوالت إيران لتجعل من الحوثيين ذراعا ً عسكريا ً كما فعلت مع حزب هللا‪ ,‬إال أن درع الخليج "عاصفة الحزم" بدأت بمواجهة الحوثيين كمواجهة‬ ‫إليران ومنعها من دخول المنطقة؛ إذ تعد إيران شريكا ً أساسيا ً في األزمة اليمنية‪.‬‬

‫إيران وداعش بين االتهام بالتمويل وقرار المواجهة‬ ‫"إن تنظيم الدولة اإلسالمية في العراق والشام (داعش) ال يشكل أي تهديد للجمهورية اإلسالمية" وزير الدفاع اإليراني حسين دهقان‪.‬‬ ‫تعود أصول هذا التنظيم إلى عام ‪ ،2004‬حين ش ّكل أبو مصعب الزرقاوي تنظيما أسماه "جماعة التوحيد والجهاد" وأعلن مبايعته لتنظيم‬ ‫القاعدة بزعامة أسامة بن الدن في حينها‪ ،‬ليصبح ممثل تنظيم القاعدة في المنطقة أو ما سمي "تنظيم القاعدة في بالد الرافدين"‪ .‬برز التنظيم على‬ ‫الساحة العراقية إبّان االحتالل األمريكي للعراق‪ ،‬على أنه تنظيم جهادي ضد القوات األمريكية‪.‬‬ ‫إيران تخوض حربا ً ضد تنظيم الدولة‪ ،‬سوا ًء ضربت مواقعة مباشرة أم ال‪ ،‬فعلى الرغم من أن إيران لم تدخل في إطار التحالف الدولي ضد‬ ‫التنظيم‪ ،‬فإنها تعتبر هذا التنظيم خطرا ً حقيقيا ً عليها وعلى مصالحها في اإلقليم‪ ،‬وهي تعمل بكل قوة‪ ،‬وبالتعاون مع حلفائها‪ ،‬لضربه وإنهاء خطره‪،‬‬ ‫وبالذات في العراق‪ ،‬حيث النفوذ اإليراني والمكاسب التي تم تحصيلها منذ عام ‪ ،2003‬مهددة بوجود هذا التنظيم‪ ،‬وتحديه حلفاء إيران في العراق‪,‬‬ ‫مع االنسحاب األمريكي من العراق عام ‪ ،2012‬وهيمنة حلفاء إيران على الحكم هناك‪ ،‬ساد االعتقاد بأن إيران سيطرت تماما ً على الوضع في‬ ‫العراق‪.‬‬ ‫أصبح اإليرانيون أمام تح ٍد جديد بعدما تمددت داعش‪ ،‬واستولت على الموصل‪ ،‬ومعظم المناطق التي يسكنها السنّة‪ ،‬تح ٍد يهدد حلفاءهم الرئيسين‬ ‫في العراق‪ ،‬ونفوذهم وهيمنتهم هناك‪ ،‬ليس فقط ألن داعش تتمدد‪ ،‬بل‪ ،‬أيضاً‪ ،‬ألن األمريكيين يعودون بقوة لينافسوا اإليرانيين على النفوذ السياسي‪.‬‬ ‫وهكذا‪ ،‬فإن ما يحصل اآلن يعبّر عن تنافس إيراني ـ أميركي في العراق على توجه الحكومة الجديدة‪ ،‬برئاسة حيدر العبادي‪ ،‬كما يعبّر عن استنفار‬ ‫إيراني في مواجهة تنظيم الدولة اإلسالمية‪ ،‬بغرض منعه من تحقيق تمدّد كامل في العراق‪ ،‬وضرب المصالح اإليرانية‪ ,78‬لكن الشك حول حقيقة‬ ‫مساعدة إيران لداعش يمكن أن يكون يقينا‪ ،‬فاالعتقاد بأن إيران لن تدعم داعش لمجرد االختالف المذهبي يعتبر إلى حد كبير ليس في محله‪ ,‬ألن‬ ‫إيران ال تدعم فقط الحركات الشيعية‪ ،‬بل دعمت الحوثيين الزيديين في اليمن‪ ،‬ودعمت «حماس» السنية‪ ،‬ودعمت «القاعدة» السنية‪ ،‬وتدعم في‬ ‫الوقت نفسه «حزب هللا» الشيعي‪ ،‬وتعارض أحزابا ً شيعيةً أخرى معارضة لسياساتها مثل شيعة أذربيجان‪.79‬‬

‫‪http://aman-news.com/%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AA‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D8%A9‬‬‫‪#/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%81‬‬ ‫‪ 77‬صالح حميد‪ ,‬إيران تتحرك إلنقاذ حلفائها الحوثيين في اليمن‪ ,‬أخبار العربية‪ ,‬فبراير ‪2015‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alarabiya.net/ar/iran/2015/02/18/%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬‫‪%D8%AA%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%83-%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%86%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B0‬‬‫‪%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%A1%D9%87%D8%A7‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%86.html‬‬ ‫‪ 78‬حرب إيران ضد داعش‪ ,‬بدر اإلبراهيم‪ ,‬ديسمبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alaraby.co.uk/opinion/ab97452f-5be5-4a36-aae3-18e5f257fa70‬‬ ‫‪ 79‬لماذا ال تشكَل داعش خطرا على إيران؟‪ ,‬تركي الدخيل‪ ,‬أغسطس ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alittihad.ae/wajhatdetails.php?id=80791‬‬ ‫‪33‬‬

‫الخالفات األيديولوجية ما بين إيران والقاعدة‪ ،‬نتيجة النتماء إيران للمذهب الشيعي وتبني القاعدة للمذهب السني‪ ،‬لم تكن سببا ُ في إعاقة تعميق‬ ‫وتطور العالقة فيما بينهما‪ ،‬فإيران دائما ً ما كانت قادرة على تجاوز الخالفات األيديولوجية لتحقيق مصالحها بالتعاون مع تنظيمات سنية‪ ،‬أبرزها‬ ‫حماس وتنظيم القاعدة‪.‬فالدعم اإليراني لتنظيم القاعدة بدا واضحا ً في مساعدة إيران في تدريب بعض نشطاء التنظيم‪ ،‬وتسهيل مرور عناصر‬ ‫القاعدة إلى أفغانستان من خالل إيران قبل وبعد أحداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر‪ ،‬والسماح لقادة التنظيم بالبقاء تحت إقامة جبرية شكلية في إيران‪.‬‬ ‫ال يتوقف الدعم اإليراني للقاعدة عند توفير مأوى لقادة التنظيم داخل أراضيها‪ ،‬إال أن هذا الدعم يمتد أيضا إلي تسهيل نشاط القاعدة داخل‬ ‫أفغانستان‪ ،‬وذلك بعد أن اضطرت عناصر التنظيم إلى ترك السودان والتوجه إلى أفغانستان في ‪ .1996‬فلقد سمحت إيران لعناصر القاعدة بأن‬ ‫يقيموا معسكرات التدريب في أفغانستان على حدودها لتسهيل وصول المجندين إليها من خالل إيران‪ ،‬كما سمحت لهم أيضا االنتقال من أفغانستان‬ ‫إلى دول أخرى‪ ،‬وعلى رأسها العراق من خالل األراضي اإليرانية‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن بعد توتر العالقات ما بين الواليات المتحدة وإيران‪ ،‬وخطاب جورج بوش في ‪ ، 2002‬والذي وصف فيه إيران بأنها مركز "محور الشر"‪،‬‬ ‫بدأت إيران ترفع قبضتها عن القاعدة‪ ،‬وسمحت لها باستخد ام أراضيها لمواجهة القوات األمريكية في فترة الغزو األمريكي للعراق‪ .‬وتمكنت‬ ‫عناصر القاعدة في إيران من استخدام هذا الدعم اإليراني في التواصل والتنسيق مع خاليا تابعة لها في دول أخرى كتلك التي قامت بهجمات علي‬ ‫مجمع سكني في الرياض في مايو ‪ .2003‬وعلى الرغم من قيام السلطات اإليرانية بالقبض على بعض عناصر القاعدة‪ ،‬فإن إيران رفضت‬ ‫اإلعالن عن أسمائهم‪ ،‬وظلت غير راغبة في أن يمثلوا أمام القضاء‪.75‬‬ ‫لذلك يمكن تلخيص العالقات بين إيران وطالبان وتنظيم القاعدة بعالقة المصالح المتعلقة بخطاب الواليات المتحدة تجاه إيران؛ فهي‬ ‫تستخدم تلك التنظيمات كورقة ضغط على الواليات المتحدة لوقف خطابات التهديد بالتدخل العسكري ووقف البرنامج النووي‪.‬‬

‫الحوثيون واتهام إيران بأزمة اليمن‪:‬‬ ‫تأثر حسن الحوثي باإلمام الخميني بعد قيام الثورة االسالمية اإليرانية ‪ 1979‬حيث حشد أتباعًا من حوله‪ ،‬وكسب والءهم‪ ،‬من خالل تبني‬ ‫خطاب مماثل للخطاب اإليراني المعادي ألمريكا والغرب وجعل القضية الفلسطينية اله َّم األول والقدس الهدف المنشود في جميع خطبه‪ ،‬وأحيا‬ ‫المناسبات الدينية الشيعية ‪ ،‬وبعد مقتله اتَّبع أخوه عبد الملك الحوثي الزعيم الحالي للجماعة األسلوب نفسه‪.‬‬ ‫من الصعب تحديد بداية العالقات بين إيران والحوثيين لكن نجاح إيران في استقطاب آل الحوثي وذهاب بدر الدين الحوثي ‪-‬األب الروحي‬ ‫للحوثيين‪ -‬وابنه حسين الحوثي إلى إيران عام ‪ ، 1994‬بعد مغادرتهم صعدة على إثر خالف نشب بينهم وبين علماء الزيدية‪ ،‬ينم عن بداية قوة‬ ‫العالقة بين الطرفين‪ .‬حرصت إيران‪ ،‬بعد نجاح ثورة ‪ ،1979‬على م ِدّ جسور تواصل بينها وبين األقليات الشيعية في العالم بشكل عام وفي‬ ‫المنطقة بشكل خاص‪ ،‬حتى تستطيع الحصول على غطاء ديني لمشروع سعيها للهيمنة على المنطقة عن طريق تصدير ثورتها إلى دول المنطقة‪،‬‬ ‫وفي اليمن كانت الزيدية هي المكون األقرب إلى الشيعة االثني عشرية‪.‬‬ ‫ركزت الجهود اإليرانية في عالقتها مع الحوثيين منذ منتصف التسعينات وحتى عام ‪ ،2004‬على النشاط الفكري والدعم المالي‪ ،‬قدمت إيران‬ ‫الكثير من األموال من أجل تمويل المراكز التدريبية والمخيمات الصيفية وتجهيزها لجذب الشباب ألنشطتها الثقافية المشبعة بالفكر الخميني‪،‬‬ ‫وحققت تلك المراكز النجاح المطلوب فزادت أعداد المقبلين عليها‪ ،‬فافتُتحت مراكز أخرى في مختلف المحافظات اليمنية؛ ففي صعدة وصل عدد‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫مركزا‪ ،‬واألمانة ‪ 5‬مراكز‪ ،‬وذمار ‪ 7‬مراكز‪ ،‬وإب مركز واحد‪،‬‬ ‫مركزا‪ ،‬وفي عمران ‪ 6‬مراكز‪ ،‬والمحويت ‪ 5‬مراكز‪ ،‬وحجة ‪12‬‬ ‫المراكز إلى ‪24‬‬ ‫وتعز مركز واحد‪ ،‬وفي صنعاء ‪ 4‬مراكز‪ ,‬وظهر الدعم العسكري اإليراني أيضا للحوثيين مع بداية المواجهات المسلحة بينهم وبين الدولة في‬ ‫عام ‪2004‬؛ حيث عثر الجيش اليمني أثناء تمشيطه مواقع للحوثيين بعد إحدى المعارك على أسلحة إيرانية الصنع‪ ,‬وصل الدعم اإليراني للحوثيين‬ ‫لدرجة تجنيد إيران لشبكات تجسس إيرانية في اليمن للعمل لصالح الحوثيين‪ ،‬كشف عن ذلك الرئيس اليمني عبد ربه منصور هادي في محاضرة‬ ‫ألقاها بمركز ودرو ويلسون الدولي بواشنطن في سبتمبر‪ ،2012‬وكانت األجهزة األمنية اليمنية قد أعلنت القبض على شبكة تجسس إيرانية اتهمتها‬ ‫بأنها تعمل في اليمن منذ سبع سنوات بإدارة قيادي إيراني سابق في الحرس الثوري اإليراني‪.‬‬ ‫صرح وزير الداخلية السابق اللواء عبد القادر قحطان في مؤتمر صحفي عُقد في صنعاء‬ ‫زودت إيران الحوثيين في هذه المرحلة باألسلحة‪ ،‬فقد َّ‬ ‫في فبراير ‪ ، 2013‬بأن شحنة األسلحة التي ضُبطت على متن السفينة جيهان‪ 1‬تُقدَّر بحوالي ‪ 40‬طنًّا من األسلحة والقذائف والمتفجرات كانت‬ ‫قادمة من إيران ‪ ,‬باإلضافة إلى إرسالها عناصر من الحرس الثوري وحزب هللا لتدريب الحوثيين‪ ،‬وبقاء عدد كبير منهم بعد سقوط صنعاء‬ ‫لمساعدة الحوثيين على تنفيذ أجندتهم السياسية والعسكرية في صنعاء‪ ,‬كما قامت إيران بتهريب أسلحة إلى جزر إريترية ومن ثم نقلها بواسطة‬ ‫قوارب صيد على شحنات صغيرة إلى الحوثيين‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى قيام الحرس الثوري اإليراني بتدريب مقاتلين حوثيين في إحدى الجزر‬ ‫اإلريترية‪76.‬‬ ‫‪ 75‬تحالف مستبعد‪:‬أبعاد العالقة بين إيران وتنظيم القاعدة في الشرق األوسط‪ ,‬دانيال بايمان‪2012 ,‬‬ ‫‪http://www.siyassa.org.eg/NewsQ/2689.aspx‬‬ ‫‪ 76‬دراسة‪ :‬العالقات الحوثية‪ -‬اإليرانية‪ :‬حلف مصلحي بغطاء مذهبي‪ ,‬إبريل ‪2015‬‬ ‫‪32‬‬

‫جاء هذا االتفاق في ظل رفض إسرائيل إلى المساعي الدولية لحل االزمة معتبرة أن هذا االتفاق هو "خطأ تاريخي" فاعتبر نتنياهو هذا االتفاق‬ ‫سيضفي شرعية على برنامج إيران النووي ويعزز اقتصاد إيران‪ ،‬ويزيد عدوان إيران وإرهابها في جميع أنحاء الشرق األوسط وخارجه‪ ،‬كما‬ ‫سيزيد مخاطر االنتشار النووي في المنطقة ومخاطر إندالع حرب ‪ .‬معلنين رفضهم بالتوصل إلى أي إتفاق نهائي بشأن الملف النووي اإليراني‬ ‫دون العودة إلى سلطة الدولة التشريعية "الكونجرس"وبنا ًء عليه قام الكونجرس األمريكي ‪ 15‬مايو ‪ 2015‬بالموافقة بأغلبية االصوات بمجلسى‬ ‫الشيوخ والنواب على مشروع قانون "‪ "Iran Nuclear agreement review act 2015‬لمراجعة االتفاقية النووية التي تم توقيعها بين إيران‬ ‫ودول ال ‪ ,71P5+1‬حيث ان من اهم بنود المشروع ان يقوم الرئيس األمريكي باراك اوباما بعمل تقارير شاملة ببنود االتفاقية النووية وإرسالها‬ ‫إلى الكونجرس ومن ثم يقوم الكونجرس بمراجعة تلك البنود خالل ‪ 30‬يوما ً على أن يتخذ القرار اما بالموفقة على االتفاقية النووية إما برفضها‪,‬‬ ‫على ان تظل العقوبات قائمة من قبل الكونجرس األمريكي على إيران وإلزام الرئيس باراك اوباما بعدم إدخال اي تعديالت او تخفيض أي‬ ‫عقوبات كانت مفروضة على إيران‪.72‬‬

‫ثامناً‪ :‬إيران وسُبل مكافة اإلرهاب‬ ‫الجماعات المسلحة وعالقاتها السرية بإيران‬ ‫أوالً‪ :‬إيران وعالقات مغلقة مع طالبان‬ ‫ال يمكن الحديث عن طالبان تلك الجماعة المسلحة التي ظلت أفغانستان تحت سيطرتها دون الحديث عن العالقات اإليرانية األفغانية حيث‬ ‫المصالح التي تسعى إيران الى تحقيقها فى تلك المنطقة فالعالقات اإليرانية األفغانية أبعادًا أمنية وسياسية واقتصادية فضالً عن البعد االجتماعي‪،‬‬ ‫كما تفتح الحدود اإليرانية‪-‬األفغانية التي تصل إلى ‪ 945‬كلم‪ ،‬المجال واس ًعا لتهديدات كثيرة‪ ،‬مثل‪ :‬تهريب المخدرات‪ ،‬والهجرة غير الشرعية‪،‬‬ ‫وغياب األمن عن المناطق الحدودية‪ ،‬ومهاجمة النقاط األمنية الحدودية‪.‬‬ ‫بدأت عالقة إيران بحركة طالبان فى بداية األمر مع التوسع العسكري الذي حققته “طالبان” عام ‪ 1994‬وسيطرتها على معظم األراضي األفغانية‪،‬‬ ‫كانت حدة الخطاب اإليراني تشهد ارتفاعا ملحوظا‪ ،‬ووصل األمر إلى ذروته بعد مقتل الدبلوماسيين اإليرانيين في مدينة مزار الشريف في العام‬ ‫‪ ، 1998‬وإرسال إيران ما يقارب مئتي ألف جندي إلى الحدود األفغانية ووقوف “طالبان” وإيران على حافة الحرب‪73‬؛ ومع ذلك فإنه وبعد‬ ‫سقوط طالبان عقب أحداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر زاد التعاون بين إيران وطالبان من حيث إمدادها بأسلحة ثقيلة خوفا من قلق إيران الدائم وهو وجود قوات‬ ‫أمريكية باألراضي األفغانية سوف يعزز من وجودها في دول وسط وجنوب آسيا‪.‬‬ ‫كثيرا ما تتقاطع في أفغانستان على الرغم من القطيعة والعداء حيث أحبط‬ ‫على اختالف المراحل الزمنية‪ ،‬کانت المصالح األمريكية واإليرانية‬ ‫ً‬ ‫سوء العالقات األميركية‪-‬اإليرانية فرص التعاون في أفغانستان‪ ،‬رغم أنه فتح بابًا لذلك حين اتبعت إيران سياسة مرنة في نهجها تجاه الواليات‬ ‫المتحدة‪ ،‬وجاءت متوائمة مع السياسات الداخلية والخارجية للرئيس محمد خاتمي (‪ ،)2005 -1997‬إال أن إدراج الواليات المتحدة إليران ضمن‬ ‫ما أسمته دول "محور الشر" في عام ‪ ،2002‬وتصاعد حدة التوتر الدائر حول طموحات إيران النووية‪ ،‬ش ّكل عقبات رئيسة بقيت تعترض السعي‬ ‫األمريكي لإلفادة من النفوذ اإليراني في أفغانستان‪.74‬‬ ‫‪ 2013‬تبنت إيران مكتب لحركة طالبان في زاهدان من أجل دعم مباحثتها الخارجية؛ ومع أن حقيقة تلك العالقات وموافقة إيران على‬ ‫فتح هذا المكتب يرجع إلى مخاوف إيران من الواليات المتحدة‪.‬‬

‫تنظيم القاعدة‪:‬‬ ‫‪PATRICIA ZENGERLE ,14 May 2015 ,U.S. House passes Iran nuclear review legislation 71‬‬ ‫‪http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/14/us-iran-nuclear-usa-idUSKBN0NZ29M20150514‬‬ ‫‪72‬‬

‫ ‪S.615 - Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015, HTTPS://WWW.CONGRESS .GOV /BILL/114TH‬‬‫‪CONGRESS / SENATE -BILL/615‬‬ ‫‪ 73‬إيران وباكستان ‪ ..‬السؤال األفغاني؟‪ ,‬توفيق شومان‪ ,‬ديسمبر ‪2001‬‬ ‫‪http://www.nabilkhalil.org/toufic003.html‬‬ ‫‪ 74‬أفغانستان ‪ ...‬قلق إيران الدائم‪ ,‬فاطمة الصمادي‪ ,‬مايو ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://studies.aljazeera.net/reports/2012/05/2012516115748921364.htm‬‬ ‫‪31‬‬

‫االتفاق النووي اإليراني "اتفاق تاريخي بين ترقب التنفيذ ومخاوف الفشل"‬ ‫‪ 2‬إبريل ‪ 2015‬تم اإلعالن عن "اتفاق تاريخي" لحل األزمة النووية اإليرانية حيث توصلت الدول الست الكبرى وإيران إلى اتفاق إطار‬ ‫بشأن الملف النووي بعد مفاوضات في مدينة لوزان السويسرية فينص هذا االتفاق على العديد من البنود أهمها‪:‬‬ ‫ تقيد أنشطة إيران النووية التي ستسخر لالستعماالت المتعلقة باألغراض السلمية فقط‪ ،‬حيث وافقت إيران في مفاوضاتها مع مجموعة (‪،)1+5‬‬‫على تخفيض عدد أجهزة الطرد المركزي التي تستخدمها في تخصيب اليورانيوم من ‪ 19‬ألف جهاز إلى ‪ ،6104‬وستقوم بتشغيل ‪ 5060‬منها‬ ‫فقط‪ ،‬بموجب اتفاق نووي شامل ستوقعه في المستقبل مع الدول الست الكبرى‪.‬‬ ‫نسبة تخصيب اليورانيوم ال تتجاوز ‪ % 3.67‬على مدى ‪ 15‬عاما‪.‬‬‫ وضع أجهزة الطرد المركزي الزائدة والبنية التحتية لتخصيب اليورانيوم المتخلى عنها في مخازن تحت إشراف الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية‪،‬‬‫على أال تستخدم إال كبدائل ألجهزة الطرد المركزي العاملة‪.‬‬ ‫عدم قيام إيران ببناء أي منشأة جديدة بغرض تخصيب اليورانيوم خالل ‪ 15‬عاما‪.‬‬‫ تقوم الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية بمراقبة المواقع النووية اإليرانية كافة بانتظام‪ ،‬كما سيكون بإمكان مفتشي الوكالة الوصول لسلسلة اإلمدادات‬‫التي تدعم البرنامج النووي اإليراني‪ ،‬سيما مادة اليورانيوم‪.‬‬ ‫تمكين الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية من الوصول إلى أي موقع تشتبه فيه أو أية منشأة "سرية"‬ ‫ موافقة إيران على تطبيق البروتوكول اإلضافي للوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية‪ ،‬الذي يمنح الوكالة حق الوصول للمعلومات بشأن البرنامج النووي‪،‬‬‫بما في ذلك المرافق المعلنة وغير المعلنة‪.‬‬ ‫موافقة إيران على اإلبالغ المبكر عن عزمها إنشاء أية منشأة جديدة‪.‬‬‫تدمير وإزالة وشحن المحرك األصلي للمفاعيل الذي يمكنه إنتاج كميات كبيرة من البلوتونيوم خارج إيران‪.‬‬‫تقوم إيران بشحن الوقود المستنفد من المفاعل خارج البالد مدى الحياة‪ ،‬مع التزامها بعدم إجراء أبحاث أو عمليات إعادة تصنيع على الوقود‬‫النووي المستنفد‪.‬‬ ‫في المقابل قدمت الدول المشاركة في هذا االتفاق تنازالت عن العديد من العقوبات التي فرضتها على إيران ولكن قامت بوضع خطط لمواجهة‬ ‫إيران في حال حيادها عن بنود االتفاق حيث‪:‬‬ ‫يقوم االتحاد األ وروبي والواليات المتحدة األمريكية‪ ،‬بتعليق العقوبات‪ ،‬بعد تحقق الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية من تطبيق إيران جميع الخطوات‬‫الرئيسة المتعلقة ببرنامجها النووي‪.‬‬ ‫تجديد العقوبات على إيران في حالة عدم التزامها بنص االتفاق‪.‬‬‫سيتم رفع جميع قرارات مجلس األمن الدولي المتعلقة ببرنامج إيران النووي في آن واحد مع انتهاء إيران من معالجة جميع المحاور الرئيسة‪.‬‬‫إعادة فرض العقوبات على إيران في حال حيادها عن تطبيق ما التزمت به‪.‬‬‫‪-‬اإلبقاء على العقوبات األمريكية على إيران الخاصة باإلرهاب وحقوق اإلنسان والصواريخ الباليستية‪ ،‬حسب نص االتفاق‪70.‬‬

‫‪ 70‬أهم بنود اتفاق إطار حل أزمة برنامج إيران النووي‪ RT ,‬روسيا اليوم‪ 4 ,‬ابريل ‪2015‬‬ ‫‪http://arabic.rt.com/news/779051-%D8%A3%D9%87%D9%85-%D8%A8%D9%86%D9%88%D8%AF‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A5%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D9%84‬‬‫‪%D8%A3%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%AC‬‬‫‪%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%88%D9%88%D9%8A‬‬‫‪/%D8%A3%D9%86%D9%81%D9%88%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%83‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬

‫الدور األوروبي "ال ُمحفز" إحدى الفرص األخرى التي عززت من احتماالت التوصل إلى المفاوضات النهائية‪ ،‬بخصوص هذه األزمة‪ ،‬فالدول‬ ‫األوروبية في المجمل‪ ،‬خاصة بريطانيا وألمانيا‪ ،‬كان لديهما حرص كبير على إنجاح المفاوضات النووية مع إيران هذه المرة‪ ،‬ليس هذا فحسب‪،‬‬ ‫ألنها تشعر بالتهديد من القدرات النووية اإليرانية‪ ،‬ولكن كما يقول ريكاردو الكارو – الباحث في معهد بروكينجز‪ -‬إن "المحادثات النووية مع‬ ‫إيران تعد القضية األمنية الدولية الوحيدة خارج أوروبا التي تؤدي فيها دورا ً حيويا ً ال تريد أن تخسره‪ ،‬وإنما تطمح إلى تتويجه باتفاق نهائي‬ ‫سلمي"‪ .‬كما أن فتح المجال أمام الصادرات النفطية اإليرانية بعد رفع العقوبات سيكون متنفسا ً مهما ً للدول األوروبية‪ ،‬يقلل إلى حد ما من ارتهانها‬ ‫للغاز الروسي‪ ،‬ويقلل من حجم التهديد الذي تشعر به تلك الدول كلما نشبت أزمة بينها وبين روسيا‪ ،‬على غرار األزمة األوكرانية األخيرة‪.67‬‬

‫مجموعة ‪ 1 +5‬بين العراقيل واالتفاقيات‪:‬‬ ‫بدأت المفاوضات والمحادثات النووية فعليا ً في عام ‪ ,2003‬حيث كانت المحادثات في البداية بين إيران ودول االتحاد االوروبي الثالث‬ ‫(فرنسا‪ ,‬المانيا وب ريطانيا) حيث ركزت تلك المحادثات على حق إيران في تطوير البحوث وإنتاج واستخدام الطاقة النووية لألغراض السلمية‬ ‫دون تمييز وبما يتفق مع المادتين األولى والثانية من معاهدة حظر االنتشار النووي ومحاولة اقناع الجانب اإليراني بفرض قيود على برنامجها‬ ‫النووي مقابل رفع العقوبات وزيادة التعاون االقتصادي والدبلوماسي‪ .‬رفضت إيران تلك المطالبات التي قامت بنا ًء عليها مجموعة ‪ 1+5P‬وهي‬ ‫مكونة من ( دول االتحاد األوروبي الثالثة‪ ,‬روسيا‪ ,‬الصين والواليات المتحدة) والتي قدمت العديد من المقترحات والصفقات الشاملة الحتواء‬ ‫النووي اإليراني غير أن هذه المحادثات من عام ‪ 2005‬إلى ‪ 2008‬قد تعثرت نتيجة إصرار مجموعة ‪ 1+5P‬على تعليق إيران جميع أنشطتها‬ ‫النووية ووقف تخصيب اليورانيوم ومن جهة أخرى إصرار إيران على اعتراف المجموعة بحقها في التخصيب والتطوير النووي‪ ,‬لكن المجموعة‬ ‫قد رضخت أمام إصرار إيران كنوع من إعادة المحادثات الدبلوماسية معها‪.‬‬ ‫استمرت تلك المحادثات بين فرض عقوبات على إيران وإصرار السلطة اإليرانية على رفع مستويات التخصيب وانهيار االتفاقيات والمحادثات‬ ‫بين الطرفين‪ ,‬لكن بحلول عام ‪ 2013‬تم التوصل إلى اتفاق الستكمال المحادثات النووية‪68.‬‬ ‫‪ 24‬نوفمبر‪ 2013‬أعلنت القوى المشاركة في مجموعة ‪ 1+5P‬وإيران في جينيف التوصل إلى خطة مشتركة من العمل ‪the Joint‬‬ ‫‪ Plan of Action‬مدة ستة أشهر والذي يحدد الخطوات الالزمة لتحقيق اتفاق نووي طويل المدى وبالفعل تم وضع تفاصيل هذا االتفاق ودخل‬ ‫في حيز التنفيذ ‪ 20‬يناير ‪ 2014‬حيث نص االتفاق على تجميد إيران العمل على برنامجها النووي على أن تقوم الوكالة الدولية للطاقة النووية‬ ‫بمراقبة نشاط إيران النووي ومواقع التخصيب مقابل رفع العقوبات المفروضة عليها‪.‬‬ ‫بعد التزام إيران ببنود الخطة المشتركة وإصدار الوكالة الدولية للطاقة النووية تقريرا ً يوضح فيه تنفيذ إيران لتلك البنود حيث انخفضت نسبة‬ ‫تخصيب اليورانيم إلى ‪ %20‬كنسبة متفق عليها‪ .‬هذه االلتزامات أدت إلى إعادة النظر في وضع اتفاق شامل لحل أزمة النووي اإليراني نهائيا ً‬ ‫ففي فبراير عام ‪ 2014‬بدأت المحادثات بين إيران ومجموعة ‪ P5+1‬على اتفاق شامل لحل األزمة النووية في فيينا‪.‬‬ ‫واستمرت المحادثات والتفتيش الدولي والمراقبة على إيران إلى أن تم إعالن ‪ 24‬نوفمبر ‪ 2014‬أن القوى المشاركة في تلك المحادثات‬ ‫تسعى لتسوية سياسية بحد أقصى مارس ‪69 .2015‬‬

‫‪http://www.alarabiya.net/ar/politics/2014/11/28/%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%B5%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D9%84%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%B6‬‬‫‪%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A9-.html‬‬ ‫‪ 67‬هل يمكن التوصل إلى اتفاق نهائي بشأن البرنامج النووي اإليراني؟‪ ,‬أشرف عبد العزيز عبد القادر‬ ‫‪http://www.siyassa.org.eg/NewsContent/2/104/5019/%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%84%D8%A7%‬‬ ‫‪D8%AA/%D9%82%D8%B6%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A7‬‬‫‪%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9/%D9%87%D9%84-%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%83%D9%86‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B5%D9%84-%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A‬‬‫‪%D8%A8%D8%B4%D8%A3%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%AC‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%88%D9%88%D9%8A‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%9F.aspx‬‬ ‫‪Patrick Christy, Robert Zarate, FBI fact sheet: TimeLine on Diplomcy and pressure on Iran's Nuclear Program, July 68‬‬ ‫‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/timeline-diplomacy-and-pressure-irans-nuclear-program‬‬ ‫‪Kelsey Davenport, TimeLine of Nuclear Diplomcy with Iran, September 2014 69‬‬ ‫‪http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheet/Timeline-of-Nuclear-Diplomacy-With-Iran‬‬ ‫‪29‬‬

‫األمريكي‪.‬‬ ‫لتغطي جميع المبيعات لمثل هذه‬ ‫التقنيات إلى إيران‪.‬‬ ‫وفي ‪ 24‬يونيو ‪2010‬‬ ‫أقر الكونغرس األميركي عقوبات‬ ‫ ودعا قرار لمجلس األمن‬‫جديدة من طرف واحد بهدف‬ ‫الدولي بتاريخ ‪ 9‬يونيو ‪2010‬‬ ‫الضغط على قطاعي الطاقة‬ ‫إلى تدابير ضد بنوك إيرانية‬ ‫والمصارف اإليرانيين‪.‬‬ ‫جديدة في الخارج إذا اشتبه في‬ ‫أن لديها عالقة بالبرنامج النووي وفرض قانون يونيو عقوبات على‬ ‫الشركات التي تزود إيران‬ ‫أو برنامج الصواريخ‪ ,‬ووقف‬ ‫بمنتجات بترولية متطورة تبلغ‬ ‫تصدير جميع انواع األسلحة إلى‬ ‫قيمتها أكثر من خمسة ماليين‬ ‫إيران التي لها عالقة بالصواريخ‬ ‫دوالر في العام‬ ‫البالستية وتفتيش السفن التي‬ ‫تنقلها واحتجازها‪ ،‬وتجميد‬ ‫أرصدة أعضاء الحرس الثوري‪،‬‬ ‫وخطوط النقل البحري ‪ -‬القرار‬ ‫الرقم ‪ ،2011 1984‬ويقضي‬ ‫بتمديد العمل بالقرار السابق لمدة‬ ‫شهرا اضافيًا‪.‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫ً‬

‫اإلسالمية‬ ‫ديسمبر ‪2011‬‬ ‫أضاف االتحاد األوروبي ‪ 180‬فردا‬ ‫وجهة من إيران إلى قائمة عقوبات‬ ‫سوداء تفرض تجميدا على األصول‬ ‫وكذلك حظرا على سفر من لهم صلة‬ ‫بالبرنامج النووي‬ ‫‪2012‬‬ ‫فرض االتحاد حظرا فوريا على جميع‬ ‫العقود الجديدة الستيراد وشراء ونقل‬ ‫البترول اإليراني الخام ومنتجات‬ ‫البترول مع سماح للدول األعضاء التي‬ ‫لديها عقود سارية لشراء البترول‬ ‫ومنتجات البترول إلى األول من يوليو‬

‫أثر التحول السياسى الذي شهدته الساحة اإليرانية واتباع سياسة االحتواء‬ ‫يعد حسن روحاني المرشح الوحيد من أصل المرشحين الستة القادم من المؤسسة الدينية‪ .‬وقد أشرف في السابق على المحادثات النووية‬ ‫بين إيران واألسرة الدولية ما أكسبه في الغرب لقب "شيخ الدبلوماسية"‪ .‬وكان روحاني قد ركز حملته االنتخابية على مبدأ 'اإلدارة الجديدة لشؤون‬ ‫الدولة' بعيدا عن المشادات والصراعات السياسية‪ .‬وقد كان من أبرز المنافسين المرشحين اآلخرين بحكم تجربته الطويلة في تسيير شؤون الدولة‬ ‫واعتداله السياسي‪ ,‬حيث يدعو روحاني إلى سياسة مرنة أكثر في المفاوضات مع الدول الكبرى في مجموعة ‪ 1+5‬الواليات المتحدة وروسيا‬ ‫وبريطانيا وفرنسا والصين إلى جانب ألمانيا لتسوية الملف النووي اإليراني من أجل تخفيف العقوبات المفروضة على إيران والتي تسببت بأزمة‬ ‫اقتصادية حادة‪.65‬‬ ‫في أعقاب فوز روحاني الساحق أيَّد المرشد األعلى للثورة اإلسالمية في إيران آية هللا على خامنئي مفهوم "المرونة الشجاعة" في العالقات‬ ‫صا منذ عام ‪.2003‬‬ ‫مع الواليات المتحدة األمريكية؛ وذلك بعد سنوات من المعارضة إلجراء محادثات مباشرة مع األمريكيين خصو ً‬ ‫تزامن عزم المعتدل حسن روحاني على إجراء تغيير في مسار السياسة اإليرانية الخارجية من المواجهة إلى التعاون مع دعم آية هللا خامنئي‬ ‫الحذر في التعامل مع الواليات المتحدة؛ األمر الذي مهد الطريق لعقد اجتماع غير مسبوق بين البلدين على مستوى وزراء الخارجية حيث تحولت‬ ‫السياسة األحمدية "نسبة إلى أحمدي نجاد" المتشددة واإل صرار على تخصيب اليورانيوم واستخدام البرنامج النووي وتطويره كورقة ضغط فى‬ ‫مواجهة العقوبات الغربية كما أن التهديدات المستمرة بالمواجهة العسكرية واألمنية‪ ،‬بات من الماضي‪ ،‬في قاموس الفريقين‪.‬‬ ‫كان الحرص على إبقاء خيار التفاوض مشترط باإلفراج عن ‪ 5‬باليين دوالر من أموال إيران المجمدة (‪ 700‬مليون كل شهر) لتقوية موقع‬ ‫روحاني في مواجهة المتشددين‪ ،‬فإن طهران ستسعى إلى التعويض عن ضآلة هذا المبلغ في موازنتها للعام ‪ ،2015‬والتي تبلغ ‪ 300‬بليون دوالر‬ ‫(المعرضة لمزيد من العجز ألنها وضعت على أساس سعر برميل النفط بـ‪ 100‬دوالر بينما انخفض سعره إلى ما دون ‪ 80‬دوالراً)‪ ،‬بالتحايل‬ ‫على عقوبات التصدير عبر المبادلة مع الصين وروسيا ودول أخرى بالبضائع‪ ،‬وعبر شراء نفط العراق الذي تسيطر عليه «داعش» بأسعار‬ ‫بخسة الستهالكها الداخلي‪ .‬فتقارير الـ «سي آي إيه» عن تحقيقات مع ضباط أسرى من «داعش» أفادت بأن التنظيم باع ويبيع النفط عبر تركيا‬ ‫لتجار إيرانيين في السوق السوداء‪.66‬‬ ‫‪ 65‬رجل الدين المعتدل هكذا يوصف الرئيس اإليراني الجديد حسن روحاني كيف وصل إلى سدة الرئاسة ؟ ولماذا انتخبه اإليرانيون؟‪ ,‬يونيو‪2013‬‬ ‫‪http://www.france24.com/ar/20130515-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A‬‬‫‪%D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%86-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA‬‬‫‪%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D8%A5%D8%B5%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86‬‬‫‪%D8%A5%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85/‬‬ ‫‪ 66‬فرصة للتفاوض والقوة الناعمة‪ ,‬وليد شقير‪ ,‬نوفمبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪28‬‬

‫وما يتصل بها من نشاطات إعادة المعالجة حتى يتحقق االطمئنان الكامل بشأن الطبيعة السلمية للبرنامج‪ ،‬بيد أن تنفيذ االتفاق واجه صعوبات‬ ‫وعراقيل منذ البداية‪.‬‬ ‫يناير ‪ :2006‬على الرغم من الحلول المقدمة من مجلس األمن التابع لألمم المتحدة فإن إيران استأنفت عمليات تخصيب اليورانيوم في طنز والتي‬ ‫كانت قد أوقفت عام ‪.2003‬‬ ‫وفي سبتمبر‪ :2009‬كشفت إيران عن أنها كانت قد بدأت في السر إنشاء محطة تخصيب إضافية تحت األرض في فوردو وهي منطقة تقع بالقرب‬ ‫من مدينة قم‪.‬‬ ‫‪ :2010‬كانت إيران تنتج سادس فلوريد اليورانيوم المخصب بنسبة ‪ 20‬في المائة في محطة تخصيب الوقود االسترشادية في طنز‪ ،‬وكان ذلك‬ ‫بحسب الظاهر لخدمة المفاعل البحثي في طهران الذي هو في األصل مقدم من الواليات المتحدة وظل يعمل منذ ‪ .1967‬ولقد طلبت إيران ‪ -‬في‬ ‫يونيو ‪ 2009‬مساعدة الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية في الحصول على الوقود لتشغيل المفاعل لكن النظام لم يوافق على شروط مجموعة فيينا التي‬ ‫جلست للتفاوض في أكتوبر ‪ .2009‬وبحلول يونيو‪ :2012‬قامت إيران بتركيب نحو ‪ 10000‬جهاز طرد مركزي في محطات التخصيب لديها‬ ‫في طنز وفوردو‪ ،‬وعلى الرغم من أن أجهزة الطرد المركزي كانت تعمل بأقل من سعتها التشغيلية بكثير‪ ،‬فإنها أنتجت ما يزيد عن ستة أطنان‬ ‫من سادس فلوريد اليورانيوم ‪ ،‬كما أعلنت إيران عن التخطيط لبناء عشرة مرافق تخصيب إضافية‪.63‬‬

‫العقوبات الخارجية تجاه التطور اإليراني النووي‬ ‫عقوبات اقتصادية‪ ,‬وأمنية‪ ,‬وتجارية كما اللجوء إلى مجلس األمن في التضييق عليها‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى عقوبات فردية من جانب طرف‬ ‫واحد هكذا بدت العقوبات التي شهدتها إيران فاتورة السعي لبناء برنامج نووي منذ سعي إيران فى الفكير لبناء معامل التخصيب النووي بدأت‬ ‫الدول الغربية وعلى رأسها الواليات المتحدة مناقشة ووضع خطط لما بعد التفكير لذلك يمكن تلخيص بعض من العقوبات التي فرضت على‬ ‫إيران بعد التطوير فى هذا الجدول ‪:64‬‬ ‫العقوبات األممية‬ ‫ فرض مجلس األمن‬‫الدولي أربع مجموعات من‬ ‫العقوبات ضد إيران في ديسمبر‬ ‫‪ ،2006‬ومارس ‪ ،2007‬ومارس‬ ‫‪ 2008‬ويونيو ‪.2010‬‬ ‫‪ -1‬المجموعة األولى المواد‬ ‫النووية الحساسة وتجمد أصول‬ ‫أفراد وشركات إيرانية ذات‬ ‫عالقة بالبرنامج النووي‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -2‬وتتضمن المجموعة‬ ‫الثانية توسيع تجميد األصول‬ ‫لتشمل ‪ 28‬من األفراد والشركات‬ ‫الجديدة التي لها صلة بـ‪/‬أو تدعم‬ ‫العمل النووي الحساس أو تطوير‬ ‫الصواريخ العابرة للقارات‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -3‬وزادت المجموعة الثالثة في‬ ‫العام ‪ 2008‬القيود المالية والقيود‬ ‫على السفر لألفراد والشركات‪،‬‬ ‫ووسعت دائرة الحظر الجزئي‬ ‫على االتجار في مواد لها‬ ‫استخدامات مدنية وعسكرية معا‬

‫عقوبات االتحاد األوروبي‬ ‫العقوبات األمريكية‬ ‫فرضت العقوبات‬ ‫‪2010‬‬ ‫‪ -1‬شدد االتحاد األوروبي‬ ‫األمريكية األولى عقب اقتحام‬ ‫عقوباته على طهران‪ ،‬إذ قرر حظر‬ ‫الطالب اإليرانيين سفارة الواليات‬ ‫إقامة أعمال مشتركة مع شركات‬ ‫المتحدة في طهران واحتجازهم‬ ‫إيرانية تعمل في مجال صناعتي النفط‬ ‫دبلوماسيين رهائن عام ‪1979‬‬ ‫والغاز الطبيعي وأي فرع أو منشأة تقع‬ ‫أكتوبر ‪2007‬‬ ‫تحت إدارة هذه الشركات‬ ‫فرضت واشنطن عقوبات‬ ‫على ثالثة بنوك إيرانية وأطلقت ‪ -2‬تمنع جميع الدول األعضاء باالتحاد‬ ‫األوروبي تقديم التأمين وإعادة التأمين‬ ‫عبارة "ناشر أسلحة الدمار‬ ‫لحكومة إيران‪.‬‬ ‫الشامل" على الحرس الثوري‬ ‫اإليراني‪ .‬ومنذ ذلك الوقت أضافت ‪ -3‬تُحظر واردات وصادرات األسلحة‬ ‫والمعدات التي يمكن أن تسهم في‬ ‫وزارة الخزانة المالية العديد من‬ ‫المصارف اإليرانية األخرى إلى تخصيب اليورانيوم أو يمكن أن يكون‬ ‫لها استخدام مزدوج‪.‬‬ ‫قائمتها السوداء‬ ‫كما حددت وزارة الخزانة‬ ‫مايو ‪2011‬‬ ‫نحو ‪ 20‬شركة وسّع وزراء خارجية الدول األعضاء‬ ‫األمريكية‬ ‫بترولية وبتروكيميائية على أنها باالتحاد بشكل كبير العقوبات وأضافوا‬ ‫مائة جهة جديدة إلى قائمة تشمل‬ ‫واقعة تحت سيطرة الحكومة‬ ‫اإليرانية‪ ،‬األمر الذي يجعلها غير شركات وأفرادا‪ ،‬بما فيها جهات تملكها‬ ‫وتديرها الخطوط البحرية للجمهورية‬ ‫مؤهلة للتعامل مع قطاع األعمال‬

‫‪ 63‬إيران النووية‪ ,‬سايمون هندرسون و أولي هاينونن‪ ,‬أغسطس ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/ar/policy-analysis/view/nuclear-iran-a-glossary-of-terms‬‬ ‫‪ 64‬سجل العقوبات الدولية ضد إيران‪ ,‬رويترز‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/news/reportsandinterviews/2012/1/23/%D8%B3%D8%AC%D9%84‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B6%D8%AF‬‬‫‪%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬ ‫‪27‬‬

‫الحرة‪ ،‬ووقف الدّعم بالعملة األجنبيّة‬ ‫بأسعار أق ّل من سعر السوق‬ ‫العمالت األجنبيّة‪ ،‬واستحداث مؤسّسة ماليّة حكوميّة لبيع العملة األجنبيّة‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫الطالب اإليرانيين في الخارج الذين يفوق عددهم ‪ 37‬ألف طالب‪.59‬‬ ‫للمسافرين إلى الخارج‪ .‬يضاف إلى ذلك‪ ،‬إلغاء دعم عملة‬ ‫لم يتوقف األمر عند ذلك بل في مارس ‪ 2012‬وبسعي من الكونجرس األمريكي تم تنفيذ عقوبات جديد‪ ،‬حيث صدق الرئيس باراك أوباما على‬ ‫القرار للضغط على األسواق العالمية التي تعتبر سوق نفطي قوي تقوم بدعم ما تفقدة إيران من النفط حيث تم فرض عقوبات على تلك األسواق‬ ‫مثل كوريا الجنوبية وتركيا والصين وجنوب أفريقيا‪ ،‬وأدى هذا إلى قيام عدة دول بخفض تجارة النفط مع إيران‪.60‬‬

‫العقوبات خسارة للطرفين‬ ‫حظرا على معظم التجارة مع إيران) إلى عام ‪ ،2012‬ض ّحت الواليات‬ ‫يتضح أنه منذ عام ‪( 1995‬عندما فرضت الواليات المتحدة‬ ‫ً‬ ‫المتحدة بما يتراوح بين ‪ 134.7‬مليار دوالر و‪ 175.3‬دوالر من عائدات التصدير المحتملة إليران كما تقدر أن الواليات المتحدة قد فقدت ما ال‬ ‫يق ّل عن ‪ 51.000‬وبحد أقصى ‪ 280.000‬وظيفة سنويًّا تقريبًا خالل الفترة من عام ‪ 2012-1995‬بسبب العقوبات اإليرانية‪ .‬بينما خسر االقتصاد‬ ‫األوروبي مبالغ أكبر في فترة أقصر من الوقت‪ ،‬حيث خسرت ألمانيا ما بين ‪ 23.1‬و‪ 73‬مليار دوالر بين عام ْي ‪ 2010‬و‪ ،2012‬وخسرت إيطاليا‬ ‫ما بين ‪ 13.6‬و‪ 42.8‬مليار دوالر‪ ،‬وفرنسا ‪ 10.9‬و‪ 34.2‬مليار دوالر‪.61‬‬

‫سابعاً‪ :‬الملف النووي اإليراني و سياسة التصعيد ثم االحتواء‬ ‫تاريخ البرنامج النووي إليران وبداية األزمة‬ ‫تم إطالق برنامج إيران النووي في خمسينيات القرن العشرين بمساعدة من الواليات المتحدة وذلك في إطار برنامج «الذرة من أجل‬ ‫السالم»‪ ،‬حيث شاركت الواليات المتحدة والحكومات األوروبية الغربية في هذا البرنامج إلى أن قامت الثورة اإليرانية في عام ‪.1979‬‬ ‫وقّعت إيران معاهدة عدم انتشار األسلحة النووية )‪ (NPT‬العام ‪ ،1968‬وصدقت عليها عام ‪ 1970‬مما جعل البرنامج النووي اإليراني‬ ‫موضوعًا للتحقق من قبل الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية (‪.(IAEA‬‬ ‫بعد الثورة اإلسالمية ‪ ،1979‬أمر اإلمام الخميني بحل أبحاث األسلحة النووية السرية للبرنامج‪ ،‬إذ كان يعتبر هذه األسلحة محظورة بموجب‬ ‫األخالق والفقه اإلسالمي‪ ،‬ولكنه أعاد السماح بإجراء بحوث صغيرة النطاق في األسلحة النووية‪ ،‬وسمح بإعادة تشغيل البرنامج خالل الحرب‬ ‫اإليرانية العراقية‪ ،‬وقد خضع البرنامج لتوسع كبير بعد وفاة آية هللا العام ‪.1989‬‬ ‫يعتبر مفاعل «بوشهر» أول محطة للطاقة النووية في إيران‪ ،‬وقد اكتمل بمساعدة كبيرة قدمتها وكالة روساتوم الروسية الحكومية‪ ,‬وقد افتتح‬ ‫رسميًا في ‪ 12‬سبتمبر‪ .2011‬وأعلنت إيران أنها تعمل على إنشاء مصنع جديد للطاقة النووية في دارخوين قدرته ‪ 360‬ميجاوات‪ ,‬كما أعلنت‬ ‫شركة )‪ Atomenergoprom‬شركة هندسية روسية مقاولة) بأن محطة بوشهر للطاقة النووية ستصل لكامل طاقتها اإلنتاجية نهاية ‪،2012‬‬ ‫وأوضحت إيران أيضًا أنها ستسعى لتصنيع محطات متوسطة الحجم إلنتاج الطاقة واستكشاف مناجم اليورانيوم في المستقبل‪.62‬‬

‫تطور البرنامج النووي والعقوبات الخارجية تجاهه‬ ‫يرجع تاريخ أول عمل إليران على تخصيب اليورانيوم إلى السبعينات عندما حصلت على نظام التخصيب بالليزر من الواليات المتحدة‬ ‫وألمانيا‪ ،‬وفي العقدين التاليين قامت إيران بتخصيب اليورانيوم على النطاق المعملي إلى جانب أعمال أخرى تشمل استجالب بعض المواد النووية‬ ‫التي لم تبلغ بها الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية‪ ،‬لكن تم الكشف عن عمليات االستجالب المذكورة في ‪ 2003‬وسعيا ً منها لمنع اإلحالة إلى مجلس‬ ‫األمن التابع لألمم المتحدة‪ ،‬اتفقت إيران مع فرنسا وألمانيا وبريطانيا (مجموعة بلدان االتحاد األوروبي الثالثة) على تعليق عمليات التخصيب‬

‫‪ 59‬تأثيرات العقوبات االقتصاديّة الغربيّة ضدّ إيران وأبعادها‪ ,‬وحدة تحليل السياسات فى مركز العربي لألبحاث ودراسة السياسات‪ ,‬أكتوبر ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://www.dohainstitute.org/release/dc0e3bc1-eeac-4da9-8c80-4f8a8cea3924‬‬ ‫‪The leghenthing list of Iran sanctions, newsteam staff,October 2013 60‬‬ ‫‪http://www.cfr.org/iran/lengthening-list-iran-sanctions/p20258‬‬ ‫‪ 61‬العقوبات على إيران تكلف الواليات المتحدة مليارات الدوالرات‪ ,‬يوليو ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://altagreer.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA‬‬‫‪%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%83%D9%84%D9%81‬‬‫‪/%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%8A‬‬ ‫‪ 62‬الملف النووي اإليراني بين الحقائق العلمية والوقائع السياسية‪ ,‬إعداد‪ :‬د‪ .‬أحمد علو عميد متقاعد‪2014 ,‬‬ ‫‪http://www.lebarmy.gov.lb/ar/news/?38081#.VI3T2XBgdK0‬‬ ‫‪26‬‬

‫في أوائل ديسمبر ‪ 2002‬جرت اتصاالت سرية بين واشنطن وطهران‪ ,‬سمحت إيران بمقتضاها للمقاتالت األمريكية باستخدام األجواء اإليرانية‬ ‫في حال تعرضها للمضادات العراقية‪ ,‬ولم يتوقف األمر عند المساعدات المعلوماتية لدول التحالف بل تبنت إيران مؤتمرا للمعارضة العراقية‬ ‫لوضع حلول لألزمة العراقية‪.56‬‬ ‫دفع غزو العراق عام ‪ ،2003‬وما تاله من اندفاع األكراد العراقيين نحو انتهاج نظام فيدرالي‪ ،‬إلى النشاط الكردي في الدول المجاورة‪ .‬وقد أثارت‬ ‫بعض األحداث ‪ -‬كإنشاء االتحاد الكردي الوطني وانتخاب قائده جالل طالباني ليكون رئيسا للعراق‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى توقيع قانون اإلدارة االنتقالية‬ ‫ أعمال شغب بين األكراد اإليرانيين‪ ،‬وأحداث تمرد خطيرة في سوريا‪ ،‬أسفرت عن مقتل ‪ 40‬شخصا‪ ،‬وقد تمتعت بعض الجماعات الكردية التي‬‫تتسم بالعنف‪ ،‬مثل حزب العمال الكردستاني وحزب الحياة الحرة الكردستاني‪ ،‬بزيادة شعبيتها في شمال العراق عقب االحتالل‪ ،‬مما أثار مزيدا‬ ‫من التهديد الستقرار المنطقة‪ ،‬خاصة في تركيا وإيران‪.‬‬ ‫لقد أدى إسقاط النظام العراقي بقيادة صدام حسين إلى اضطراب توازنات القوى في المنطقة‪ ،‬إذ مال توازن القوى تجاه إيران‪ ،‬لذلك أدت‬ ‫دورا ً خفياً‪ ،‬إذ إن الواليات المتحدة لم تفكر فيما بعد غزو العراق فقط‪ ،‬لكنها خشيت من انهيار ميزان القوى بين العراق وإيران ودور إيران الفعال‬ ‫في العراق نتيجة لعالقتها بالشيعة ومساعيها لفرض سيطرتها على العراق بطريقة غير مباشرة‪.58 57‬‬

‫العالقات االقتصادية األمريكية اإليرانية‬ ‫تعد العالقات االقتصادية بين الواليات المتحدة وإيران منعدمة حيث أصدر الكونجرس األمريكي العديد من التشريعات التي تحظر التعامل‬ ‫التجاري مع إيران في العديد من المجاالت بل فرضت الواليات المتحدة العديد من العقوبات االقتصادية على إيران كنوع من الضغط الدولي‬ ‫لوقف نشاط إيران النووي حيث كانت إيران من أكبر المقترضين من البنك الدولي حتى عام‪ .1976‬وبعد الزلزال المدمر عام ‪ ،1990‬تلقت إيران‬ ‫نظرا للضغوط التي مارستها اإلدارة األمريكية‪ ،‬فإن البنك رفض طلبات تقدمت بها إيران‬ ‫ستة قروض بلغ مجموعها ‪ 843‬مليون دوالر‪ .‬ولكن ً‬ ‫للحصول على مزيد من القروض‪.‬‬ ‫وفي عام ‪ 2000‬لم تنجح جهود الواليات المتحدة في الحيلولة دون الموافقة على قرضين إليران‪ :‬قرض بمبلغ ‪ 87‬مليون دوالر للرعاية الصحية‬ ‫والتغذية‪ ،‬وقرض آخر بمبلغ ‪ 145‬مليون دوالر لمشروع للصرف الصحي‪ .‬ومنذ ذلك الوقت‪ ،‬فإن إيران تقدمت بطلبات وحصلت على مزيد من‬ ‫ي سنة‬ ‫ي اإليران ّ‬ ‫ي الناتج الداخل ّ‬ ‫ي تراجع إجمال ّ‬ ‫القروض‪ .‬كما وفقدت إيران ما يقارب ‪ %40‬من صادراتها النفطيّة‪ ،‬بينما قدّر صندوق النقد الدول ّ‬ ‫ي‪ ،‬تراجع إنتاج صناعة السيّارات‬ ‫‪ 2012‬بنسبة ‪ ،%0.9‬وارتفاع البطالة بنسبة ‪ %25‬بين سنت َي ‪ 2011‬و‪ .2012‬وعلى المستوى الصناع ّ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫واضطر اإليرانيّون إلى رفع حجم وارداتهم من الواليات المتحدة األمريكية‬ ‫بنسبة‪ ،%42‬بعد انسحاب شركة "بيجو" الفرنسيّة من السوق اإليرانيّة‪.‬‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫سنة ‪ 2012‬بنسبة ‪ %30‬مقارنةً بسنة ‪ ،2011‬بقيمة ‪ 199.5‬مليون دوالر‪ ،‬فقد مثلت صادرات الحبوب األمريكية إلى إيران ما قيمته ‪ 89.2‬مليون‬ ‫دوالر‪.‬‬ ‫كبير في احتياجات البالد من‬ ‫أدّى انخفاض الصادرات اإليرانيّة النفطيّة‪ ،‬وانسحاب مستثمرين وشركات أجنبيّة من السوق اإليرانية‪ ،‬إلى ٍ‬ ‫نقص ٍ‬ ‫ي لقيمة‬ ‫ي العملة لتنفيذ بعض الخطط الحكوميّة‪ ،‬واعتماد نظام التعدّد المرجع ّ‬ ‫العملة األجنبية‪ .‬وهو ما ألجأ حكومة أحمدي نجاد إلى استخدام احتياط ّ‬ ‫‪ 56‬موسوعة ال ُمقاتل‪ ,‬المبحث الثالث‪ :‬غزو العراق ‪ ,2003‬الموقف العربي واإلقليمي والمحلي‪ ,‬الموقف اإليراني‬ ‫‪http://www.moqatel.com/openshare/Behoth/Siasia2/GhzIrq2003/sec04.htm_cvt.htm‬‬ ‫‪ 57‬الشرق األوسط بعد احتالل العراق‪2010 ,‬‬ ‫‪http://www.siyassa.org.eg/NewsContent/5/25/1570/%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA‬‬‫‪%D8%A3%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9/%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D‬‬ ‫‪8%A7%D8%AA‬‬‫‪%D8%A3%D8%AC%D9%86%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7-%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%AF‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82‬‬‫‪.aspx‬‬ ‫‪ 58‬العالقات اإليرانية العراقية في ظل االحتالل األمريكي للعراق ‪ ,2011-2003‬جامعة الشرق األوسط‬ ‫‪http://www.meu.edu.jo/ar/images/newpapers/OS1/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%‬‬ ‫‪A7%D8%AA%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9%20%D9%81%D9%8A%20%D8%‬‬ ‫‪B8%D9%84%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D‬‬ ‫‪8%A7%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A%20%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%2020‬‬ ‫‪03-2011‬‬‫‪%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%AF%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%86%20%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%‬‬ ‫‪AF%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%85%20%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%AF%20%D8%A7%D9%84.‬‬ ‫‪pdf‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬

‫في نوفمبر ‪ 1986‬كان أول االدعاءات العلنية لصفقة األسلحة مقابل الرهائن قد طفت على السطح عندما نشرت مجلة الشراع اللبنانية في‬ ‫‪ 3‬نوفمبر أن الواليات المتحدة قد باعت أسلحة إلى إيران سرا ً من أجل تأمين إطالق سراح سبعة رهائن أمريكيين أسرتهم جماعات مؤيدة إليران‬ ‫في لبنان‪.‬العملية المستترة كانت قد اكتشفت فقط بعد أن أسقط جسر جوي من األسلحة على نيكاراغوا‪.53‬‬

‫العالقات اإليرانية األمريكية (ما بعد أحداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر)‬ ‫"محور الشر" هكذا وصف الرئيس األمريكي جورج بوش إيران عام ‪ ,2002‬فعقب األحداث التي تعرضت لها الواليات المتحدة في‬ ‫الحادي عشر من سبتمبر‪ ، 2001‬قررت اإلدارة األمريكية مباشرة شن حملة عسكرية ضد أفغانستان للقضاء علـى تنظيم القاعدة بزعامة (أسامة‬ ‫بن الدن) المقيم في األراضي األفغانية واتهامها إياه بتبني التفجيرات ضد الواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬وللقضاء كذلك على نظام طالبان‪.‬‬ ‫كانت الحرب التي شنتها الواليات المتحدة ضد أفغانستان عقب أحداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر‪ ،‬قد فرضت نفسها على إيران على نحـو كبير وساعدت في‬ ‫خلق أزمة في القرار اإليراني بين التيارين اإلصالحي والمحافظين بشأن الموقف من الحرب على أفغانستان‪ .‬فإيران بشكل عام كانت قد لخصت‬ ‫موقفها من الحرب وعلى لسان أكثر من مسؤول برفض وجود قوات عسكرية أمريكية في أفغانستان‪ ،‬ألن ذلك يمثل تهديـداً ألمنها‪.‬‬ ‫وهذا ما أكده تيار المحافظين الذي رأى أن إيران على الرغم من رغبتهـا فـي التخلص من نظام طالبان ‪ ،‬فإنها تخشى من استمرار الوجود‬ ‫العسكري األمريكي سواء في أفغانستان أم في الدول المجاورة لها والمطلة على بحر قزوين‪ ،‬ومثل هذا االحتمـال يجعـل إيران تشعر بالتطويق‬ ‫المباشر وبالتهديد لمصادر ثروتها في بحر قزوين‪54‬؛ إال أن إيران اتخذت موقفا ً إيجابيا ً تجاه الحملة األمريكية على اإلرهاب في أفغانستان‪,‬‬ ‫فقامت إيران بإغالق حدودها مع أفغانستان حيث أحكمت قبضتها على الحدود بعدم السماح لمجموعات من حركة طالبان بالتسلل لدخول إيران‬ ‫كما أن غلق الحدود شكل ضمانة لمنع تهريب األسلحة وتقديم الدعم إلى تلك المجموعات‪ ،‬عبر الحدود األفغانية‪-‬اإليرانية‪.‬‬ ‫ومنذ بدء الحملة األمريكية على اإلرهاب في أفغانستان وحتى سقوط نظام طالبان قد شهدت نوعًا من التقارب بين الواليات المتحدة وإيران ‪-‬على‬ ‫األقل فيما يخص أفغانستان‪ -‬وهو ما عبر عنه الموقف اإليراني الفعلي والعملي من الحملة العسكرية ضد نظام طالبان وتنظيم القاعدة‪ ،‬وقد ظهر‬ ‫هذا التقارب في سماح الواليات المتحدة بمشاركة إيران في مؤتمر "بون" لتحقيق المصالحة األفغانية والذي عقد في نوفمبر‪ ،2001‬والذي كان‬ ‫من نتائجه بعد ذلك اختيار "حامد كرزاي" لرئاسة الحكومة األفغانية المؤقتة وهو االختيار الذي حظي بموافقة إيرانية‪ ،‬حتى إنها كانت من أوائل‬ ‫الدول التي افتتحت سفاراتها في كابول وكان ذلك تحديدًا في ‪20‬نوفمبر‪.2001‬‬ ‫إال أن التقارب بين إيران والواليات المتحدة لم يدم طويالً‪ ،‬ففي عام ‪ 2002‬وجهت واشنطن اتهامات إلى إيران اتهم فيها وزير الدفاع‬ ‫األمريكي دونالد رامسفيلد إيران بالسماح ألعضاء تنظيم القاعدة بالعبور إلى أراضيها‪ ،‬وأنها تواصل السعي لزعزعة االستقرار في أفغانستان‪.‬‬ ‫في ضوء تلك التطورات أصبح الملف األفغاني أحد األمور التي أزمت العالقات اإليرانية‪-‬األمريكية‪ ،‬حيث رأى بعض األمريكيين أن طهران‬ ‫سعت إلى استغالل مساعداتها ألفغانستان من أجل تفصيل دور مؤثر لها في السياسة األفغانية الداخلية ومحاولة اإلمساك بعناصر التأثير في‬ ‫االحتماالت المستقبلية‪ ،‬وهو األمر الذي تعارضه واشنطن وتعتبره تهديدًا لالستقرار في المنطقة‪ ,‬وبالتالي فإن إيران كانت تسعى لخلق نوع من‬ ‫التوازن فى عالقتها مع الواليات المتحدة عقب أحداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر وأيضا ً وقف أي امتداد أمريكي في أفغانستان وبالتالي السيطرة على موارد‬ ‫إيران بطريقة غير مباشرة‪.55‬‬

‫دور إيران في عراق ما بعد الغزو األمريكي وانهيار نظام صدام حسين‬ ‫"االنتقام" هي الكلمة التي يمكن وصف عالقة إيران بالعراق عقب االحتالل األمريكي ‪ 2003‬فإيران لم تنس هزيمتها عقب حرب الخليج‬ ‫األولى‪ ,‬فأخذت تراقب العراق وتورطها في المستنقع الكويتي‪ ,‬ثم حرب عاصفة الصحراء التي دمرت ثلثي الجيش العراقي‪.‬‬ ‫وعقب احتالل العراق كشفت مصادر عن أن تعاونا ً مخابراتيا ً تم بين أجهزة المخابرات األمريكية وإيران إال أن إيران أعلنت التزامها الحياد‬ ‫اتجاه الحرب على العراق عام ‪ 2003‬حيث تعهدت بعدم التدخل أثناء الحرب وال بعدها ألن األمريكيين كانوا يخشون استغالل إيران لألغلبية‬ ‫الشيعية فى جنوب العراق فى إثارة المتاعب لقوات التحالف في هذه المنطقة‪.‬‬

‫‪ 53‬إيران جيت جريمة تهريب سالح بتوقيع الرئيس‪ ,‬يونيو ‪2005‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alriyadh.com/72473‬‬ ‫‪ 54‬مجلة التربية والعلم‪ ,‬موقف إيران من الحرب األمريكية على أفغانستان ‪ ,2001‬محمد سالم أحمد الكواز‪ ,‬مركز الدراسات اإلقليمية ‪ /‬جامعة الموصل‬ ‫‪http://www.iasj.net/iasj?func=fulltext&aId=5937‬‬ ‫‪55‬جريدة البيان اإلماراتية‪ ,‬عالقة إيران وأفغانستان في زمن الحرب على اإلرهاب‪ ,‬إبريل ‪2001‬‬ ‫‪=http://www.albainah.net/index.aspx?function=Item&id=1612&lang‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬

‫أو عسكريا ً في شئون إيران الداخلية‪ ,‬ولكن إلحراج كارتر لم يتم اإلفراج عن الرهائن إال بعد دقائق من أداء رونالد ريجان اليمين الدستوري‪,‬‬ ‫حيث نجح الخميني في تهديده بعدم منح الرهائن لكارتر بأي حال‪.51‬‬ ‫هكذا بدت معالم العالقات األمريكية اإليرانية بعد قيام الثورة اإلسالمية ‪ ،1979‬فلم يقتصر األمر عن ذلك بل امتد حيث شهدت تلك الفترة‬ ‫العديد من االحداث التي حددت مدى العالقات وتوافقها او اختالفها‪.‬‬

‫حرب الخليج األولى ‪1988-1980‬‬ ‫حرب الخليج األولى كانت مرحلة طبيعية لوجود نزاع حقيقي بين إيران والعراق دفع كال البلدين إلتخاذ قرار الحرب فمسألة السيادة على‬ ‫شط العرب‪ ,‬ومشكلة األكراد حيث تأييد إيران لهم‪ ,‬فتبادل الطرفين اإلتهام بقصف كل منهم االخرى حتى اتخذ صدام حسين القرار بمهاجمة‬ ‫إيران‪.‬‬ ‫لم تبدي الواليات المتحدة انحيازها الحد طرفي الحرب بل اعلنت حيادها في النزاع لكنها كانت تسعى للسيطرة على مناطق قريبة من النزاع‬ ‫اإليراني العراقي وبالفعل ارسلت الواليات المتحدة ‪ 4‬طا ئرات إنذار مبكر إلى المملكة العربية السعودية‪ ,‬لحماية أجوائها‪ ,‬كما ارسلت اسطولها‬ ‫الحربي‪ ,‬لحصر القتال في المنطقة الشمالية من الخليج‪.‬‬ ‫أصدرت اإلدارة األمريكية أوامرها إلى القطع البحرية العسكرية الموجودة في المحيط الهندي‪ ,‬بالتجمع قبالة مدخل الخليج‪ ,‬كما دعا الرئيس كارتر‬ ‫ست دول صناعية لبحث ضمان السيطرة على مضيق هرمز لتقليل اآلثار االقتصادية للنزاع في المالحة الدولية وأسواق النفط العالمية‪.‬‬ ‫وفي عام ‪ 1982‬شنت إيران هجوما ً حادا ً على العراق أدى إلى سحب العراق لمعظم قواته من األراضي اإليرانية‪ ,‬وانتقلت من الدفاع إلى الهجوم‪,‬‬ ‫واحتالل جنوب العراق‪ ،‬فأرعب هذا التحول األنظمة الخليجية والواليات المتحدة حيث المخاوف من التوسع السوفيتي فى الخليج والثورة اإليرانية‬ ‫وانتشار مفاهيمها فى دول الخليج لذلك كان من الضروري أال تنتصر إيران على العراق لذلك عملت واشنطن على تزويد العراق بمعلومات في‬ ‫مجال االستخبارات منذ ‪ ،1984‬فأسهمت تلك المعلومات في الهجوم العراقي الستعادة شبه جزيرة الفاو‪ ,‬عام ‪.1986‬‬ ‫اتخذت الواليات المتحدة سلسلة من الخطوات لمساعدة العراق في وقف الزحف اإليراني حيث تم صرف أكثر من مليار دوالر‪ ,‬كضمان‬ ‫للعراق‪ ,‬لتسهيل شراء منتجات أجنبية وغيرها‪ ,‬كما دعمت قرارات مجلس األمن الدولي‪ ,‬الذي أدان إيران‪ ,‬لمهاجمتها ناقالت النفط في الخليج؛‬ ‫إال أن بعض األنباء تسربت حول شحن الواليات المتحدة ألسلحة أمريكية إلى إيران من طريق إسرائيل والتي تعرف باسم "إيران جت – إيران‬ ‫كونترا"‪.52‬‬

‫التعاون السري األمريكي اإليراني خالل الحرب العراقية اإليرانية "إيران كونترا"‬ ‫تعود فضيحة إيران جت ‪ 1985‬عندما قامت إدارة ريغان ببيع األسلحة إلى إيران وتحويل عائدات صفقة بيع األسلحة للحركة المضادة‬ ‫لثوار نيكاراغوا* الذين كانوا يحاربون لإلطاحة بالحكومة اليسارية وحزب الساندينيستا الذي كان يحكم نيكاراغوا‪ .‬وكانت صفقة بيع األسلحة لها‬ ‫هدفان متزامنان‪ ،‬األول‪ :‬استرضاء إيران التي كان لها تأثير على الجماعات التي أسرت عددا من الرهائن األمريكيين في لبنان ‪ ،1985‬وقيل إنها‬ ‫وراء عدة تفجيرات في دول أوروبية شرقية‪ ،‬والهدف الثاني‪ :‬تمويل حرب عصابات الهدف منها اإلطاحة بحكومة نيكاراغوا المؤيدة للنظام‬ ‫الشيوعي والتي تساندها كوبا واالتحاد السوفيتي‪.‬‬ ‫وكانت إجراءات صفقة بيع األسلحة قد سارت ضد قوانين الكونغرس الذي يحرم تمويل الحركة المضادة لثوار نيكاراغوا وبيع األسلحة إليران‪.‬‬ ‫وباإلضافة لذلك فإن جميع تلك األنشطة كانت تشكل تعديا ً على عقوبات األمم المتحدة وقتها‪ ,‬في يناير ‪ 1986‬وافق ريغان على خطة يقوم بموجبها‬ ‫وسيط أمريكي ببيع األسلحة إلى إيران في مقابل إطالق الرهائن‪ ،‬وأن توجه أرباح الصفقة إلى حركة كونترا أو الحركة المضادة لثوار نيكاراغوا‪،‬‬ ‫وقد تحايلت إدارة ريغان على قوانين الكونغرس ومررت التمويل واألسلحة ضد ثوار نيكاراجوا(الكونترا)‪ ،‬وحصلت الحركة المعارضة لثوار‬ ‫نيكاراغوا على األسلحة والتدريب من الواليات المتحدة ووكالة االستخبارات المركزية‪.‬‬

‫‪ 51‬أزمة الـ‪ 444‬يوما التى قلبت موازين العالقات اإليرانية ‪ -‬األمريكية‬ ‫‪http://digital.ahram.org.eg/articles.aspx?Serial=1167573&eid=6858‬‬ ‫* نيكاراغوا‪ :‬هي إحدى دول مضيق "أميركا الوسطى"‬ ‫‪ 52‬موسوعة ال ُمقاتل‪ ,‬المبحث الثالث‪ :‬حرب الخليج األولى وموقف الواليات المتحدة األمريكية‪ ,‬المبحث الرابع‪ :‬التدخل األمريكي فى الخليج وانتهاء الحرب اإليرانية العراقية‬ ‫‪http://www.moqatel.com/openshare/Behoth/IraqKwit/5/sec04.doc_cvt.htm‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬

‫سادساً‪ :‬العالقات الثنائية بين الواليات المتحدة األمريكية وإيران‬ ‫العالقات الثنائية في فترة ما قبل الثورة اإلسالمية‬ ‫العالقات األمريكية اإليرانية عالقة مختلفة من نوعها فهي ليست فقط قائمة على مجرد مساعدات أو تعاون بين البلدين بل هذه العالقة‬ ‫دائما ً ما تعرف باألحداث والصراعات والتنافس بين إيران والواليات المتحدة فاألحداث التي مر بها البلدين تكشف عن حقيقة أنه ال تعاون بينهم‬ ‫إال أن الحقيقة غير ذلك حيث‪:‬‬ ‫فى الفترة بين ‪ :1953-1941‬خالل الحرب العالمية الثانية رفض الشاه رضا بهلوي االنضمام إلى دول الحلفاء والتي كانت تضم بريطانيا‬ ‫والواليات المتحدة‪ ,‬ورغم أنه أظهر موقف إيران المحايد إال أنه كان هناك تعاون كبير مع المحور خاصة ألمانيا‪ ,‬مما أقلق الحلفاء وأحدث ضغط‬ ‫من بريطانيا والواليات المتحدة واالتحاد السوفيتي ليتخلى الشاه عن عرشه وتولي ابنه محمد رضا بهلوي‪ ،‬استطاعت قوات الحلفاء دخول إيران‬ ‫مدة ‪ 24‬يوما لتأمين حقول النفط اإليراني من السيطرة األلمانية‪ ,‬واستخدام الذخائر اإليرانية لمد االتحاد السوفيتي باألسلحة لمواجهة قوات المحور‪.‬‬ ‫وفي عام ‪ 1951‬أمم محمد مصدق رئيس الوزراء البترول اإليراني من السيطرة األنجليزية‪ ,‬من خالل تأميم شركة النفط األنجلو‪-‬أمريكية‪,‬‬ ‫واستطاع تكوين قاعدة شعبية له وأرغم الشاه على مغادرة إيران عام ‪ ,1953‬استطاعت حكومة الرئيس األمريكي دوايت ايزنهاور بمساعدة وكالة‬ ‫االستخبارات األمريكية والتعاون مع بريطانيا‪ ,‬إسقاط حكومة محمد مصدق في عملية أطلق عليها "أجاكس"‪ .‬وأعيد الشاه إليران ثانية‪.‬‬ ‫فى الفترة بين ‪ :1977-1953‬تولى "فضل هللا زاهدي" رئاسة الوزراء عقب مصدق‪ ,‬وفي عام ‪ 1954‬عقد اتفاق بين الحكومة اإليرانية والشركات‬ ‫األجنبية ينص على تشكيل "الكونسوريتوم" (اتحاد شركات بترولية عالمية)‪ ,‬وهي ‪ 8‬شركات أمريكية وفرنسية وهولندية إلى جانب شركة البترول‬ ‫البريطانية اإليرانية‪ ,‬من أجل استغالل السوق اإليراني‪ .‬كانت أسهم هذه الشركات مقسمة بنسب حيث حصلت أمريكا على ‪ %40‬كذلك بريطانيا‪،‬‬ ‫وبالتالي تم تجاهل قانون تأميم البترول اإليراني وأصبحت أمريكا شريكا ً له وزنه في صناعة البترول اإليراني‪ ,‬اتُفق على سريان االتفاقية ‪25‬‬ ‫سنة مع تجديدها‪.‬‬ ‫عام ‪ 1957‬تم تأسيس جهاز السافاك بإيران بمساع دة الواليات المتحدة األمريكية وكان الهدف منه قمع المعارضين لنظام الشاه من الشعب‬ ‫اإليراني‪ .‬عام ‪ 1964‬أصدر الشاه قانونا يقضي بمنح جميع األمريكيين في إيران الحصانة ضد أي اعتقال او اضطهاد‪ ,‬وعندما عارض آية هللا‬ ‫الخميني آنذاك هذا القرار نفي إلى تركيا ثم العراق ثم فرنسا حتى عام الثورة ‪49.1979‬‬ ‫وفي حرب أكتوبر ‪ 1973‬فرضت الدول العربية حظرا بتروليا على الدول الداعمة إلسرائيل‪ ,‬واستخدمت البترول كسالح سياسي‪ ,‬لكن إيران‬ ‫رأت أن األمر ال يخصها‪ ,‬على الرغم من أن الشاه استجاب لطلب الرئيس المصري السادات وأمده بكميات من البترول لتموين الطائرات وأمر‬ ‫الشاه بتغير اتجاه إحدى الناقالت اإليرانية لتفرغ حمولتها في مصر‪ .‬وقفز الدخل القومي اإليراني قفزة هائلة بعد ارتفاع أسعار البترول أثناء‬ ‫الحرب‪ ,‬وطلب الشاه من دول منظمة األوبك رفع أسعار البترول الخام‪ ,‬األمر الذي سبب هجوم وسائل اإلعالم الغربي على إيران باتهامها‬ ‫بتخريب االقتصاد الغربي‪50.‬‬

‫العالقات الثنائية‪ :‬مرحلة ما بعد الثورة اإلسالمية‬ ‫وفي عام ‪ 1979‬بدأت الثورة اإلسالمية اإليرانية وعاد الخميني من منفاه بعد ‪ 15‬عاما‪ ,‬وإعالن الجمهورية اإلسالمية‪ ,‬استقبل الرئيس‬ ‫األمريكي جيمي كارتر الشاه محمد رضا بهلوي للعالج من السرطان‪ ,‬مما أعاد ألذهان اإليرانيين انقالب عام ‪ 1953‬على حكومة مصدق وعودة‬ ‫أمريكا للشاه‪ ,‬مما دفع الطلبة اإليرانيين إلى االستيالء على السفارة األمريكية في طهران‪ ,‬واحتجاز نحو ‪ 70‬أمريكياً‪ .‬سمح الطلبة فيما بعد باإلفراج‬ ‫عن بعض الرهائن السود والنساء وغير األمريكيات‪ ,‬وبقي ‪ 52‬رهينة‪ ,‬مطالبين بتسليم الشاه إليران‪ .‬جمدت الواليات المتحدة مليارات الدوالرات‬ ‫اإليرانية في بنوكها‪ ,‬ووضعت حظرا ً على صادرات النفط اإليراني مع قطع العالقات الدبلوماسية‪.‬‬ ‫فشلت عملية أمريكية لتحرير الرهائن عام ‪ ,1980‬ومع دخول إيران الحرب مع العراق تم اإلفراج عن الرهائن في ‪ 19‬يناير ‪ 1981‬بعد ‪444‬‬ ‫يوما ً من االحتجاز‪ ,‬بعد ما عرف بمحاثات الجزائر مقابل اإلفراج عن ‪ 8‬مليارات من أموال إيران المجمدة والتعهد األمريكي بعدم التدخل سياسيا ً‬

‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84‬‬‫‪/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%A7‬‬ ‫‪U.S Iran relations, 1906-2002 49‬‬ ‫‪http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/tehran/etc/cron.html‬‬ ‫‪ 50‬مختارات إيرانية‬ ‫‪=http://www.albainah.net/Index.aspx?function=Item&id=16609&lang‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬

‫شبكة من الطرق تربط تركمانستان ببقية دول آسيا الوسطي وتركيا ومنها إلي أوروبا‪ ,‬وتعد إيران معبر لتركمانستان إلي الخليج العربي‪ .‬وتشترك‬ ‫جمهورية كازخستان مع إيران في المنافسة على استغالل ثروات بحر قزوين اللتان تطالن عليه بجانب روسيا وأذربيجان وتركمانستان‪ .‬وبشكل‬ ‫عام تشترك آسيا الوسطي في أراضي الدين اإلسالمي والتاريخ رغم كون إيران شيعية على خالف مسلمي آسيا الوسطي ذوي األكثرية السنية‪.‬‬ ‫أما النفوذ اإليراني القوي فيظهر في طاجيكستان حيث أدت إيران دورا ً مهما ً في مفاوضات السالم الطاجيكية فترة الحرب األهلية ‪1997-1993‬‬ ‫بين المعارضة اإلسالمية وحكومة الرئيس "إمام علي رحمانوف"‪ ,‬كما أن العمل بين "دوشنبه" عاصمة طاجيكستان وطهران لدعم الحكومة‬ ‫األفغانية ضد حركة طالبان فترة ما بين ‪ 2001 - 1996‬مهد األرضية للنفوذ اإليراني في المنطقة‪ .‬كما تشكل إيران وطاجيكستان وأفغانستان‬ ‫ثالثية الدول الناطقة بالفارسية وتسعى طهران إلى دعم الجوانب الثقافية عبر تعميم اللغة الفارسية في طاجيكستان‪ .‬أما بقية الدول فلم تتجاوز‬ ‫العالقات معها مستوى الرسميات والتعامالت العادية‪.‬‬ ‫وتسعى إ يران لتطوير عالقاتها مع دول اسيا الوسطي عبر العالقات الثنائية مع كل دولة على حدة وكذلك في إطار التحالفات اإلقليمية‬ ‫مثل منظمة التعاون االقتصادي "إيكو"‪ ,‬ومنظمة الدول المطلة علي بحر قزوين‪ ,‬ومنظمة التعاون االقتصادي‪ ,‬ومنظمة شنغهاي التي تطالب‬ ‫إيران حاليا بالحص ول على عضوية كاملة بها مما يتيح لها مزيد من التعاون السياسي واالقتصادي مع دول اسيا الوسطي‪ .‬إذ تشكل الواليات‬ ‫المتحدة أكبر عقبة أمام إيران لبسط نفوذها في دول وسط آسيا‪ ,‬باإلضافة لمحدودية اإلمكانيات اإليرانية أمام باقي دول اللعبة العظيمة مثل روسيا‬ ‫والصين والواليات المتحدة‪.46 45‬‬

‫الدور اإليراني اتجاه سياسة الحرب الباردة‬ ‫كانت نهاية القرن العشرين وبداية الحادي والعشرين تبدو كما لو أنها بداية “مرحلة جديدة” لما “بعد الحرب الباردة”‪ .‬فإذا كان االتحاد‬ ‫السوفيتي سابقا هو القوة المنافسة للواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬فإن انهياره في تسعينيات القرن الماضي قد جعل من الواليات المتحدة "الدولة العظمى‬ ‫الوحيدة" و"مركز القرار العالمي"‪.‬‬ ‫التجربة السياسية على مدار عقدين من الزمن (من ‪ 1991‬حتى اآلن) كشفت عن طبيعة وشكيمة اإلرادة السياسية القومية واإلسالمية للدولة‬ ‫اإليرانية‪ .‬كما كشفت عن أن التحالف التقليدي الراسخ بينها وبين سوريا عن ثالثة حقائق كبرى وهي‪ :‬أن إيران وسوريا دولتان متحالفتان‪ ،‬وأن‬ ‫حلفهما حلف مجرب‪ ،‬وأنهما يمثالن القوة التي كانت تخزن رغم كل المآخذ على طبيعة واختالف نظمهما السياسية‪ ،‬وحدة المكونات اإلسالمية‬ ‫(الثقافية) والقومية (العربية والفارسية اإليرانية)‪.‬‬ ‫وقد كانت حصيلة هذه المواجهة االنتصار النسبي إليران وسوريا‪ .‬أما خروج قوات االحتالل األمريكي من العراق‪ ،2012‬فقد أضاف قوة كامنة‬ ‫لتشكيل المحور العربي (العراقي السوري) اإليراني‪ ،‬أي القوة التي تفعل على المدى البعيد ضمن سياق نمو وتراكم البؤر الجديدة المعادية‬ ‫للهيمنة األمريكية‪ .‬أما الثورات العربية فقد أضافت بعدا ً اجتماعيا ً قوميا ً في هذا االتجاه رغم كل الطابع الدرامي والمتناقض لها في مراحلها‬ ‫األولية‪ .‬أما الحصيلة فإنها تشير إلى أن السياسة األمريكية تجاه العالم (وفي الحالة المعنية تجاه روسيا والعالم العربي واإلسالمي) بعد ثالثة‬ ‫عقود من الزمن وإحكام سيطرتها النسبية‪ ،‬قد بدأت بالتآكل‪ .‬فقد خرجت إيران أقوى من السابق‪ .‬وهنا بدأت تبرز قيمتها الجيوسياسية في معركة‬ ‫المصالح الكبرى والمحاور اآلخذة في البروز والتنافس‪.47‬‬ ‫ليست مصادفة أن يكون الظهور الروسي الجديد واستنهاض الفكرة األوروآسيوية القديمة (التي كان االتحاد السوفييتي في الواقع تجسيدا‬ ‫ضيقا بأثر استحواذ القوة والعنف في تنفيذها)‪ ،‬والتجمع الروسي الصيني الجديد‪ ،‬وتوسعه صوب دول آسيا الوسطى‪ ،‬ثم توسعه بانخراط عينات‬ ‫إفريقية وأمريكية جنوبية‪ ،‬ثم االستدراج الواقعي للهند وباكستان وإيران إليه‪ ،‬سوى العملية المعقدة والديناميكية في الوقت نفسه‪ .‬بمعنى أننا نقف‬ ‫أمام تجمع عالمي جديدة يوازي ويواجه على المدى القريب والبعيد التيار األوروأمريكي‪ .‬وضمن هذا السياق أصبح التوجه الروسي صوب‬ ‫المشرق العربي وإيران جزء من هذا التيار الصاعد‪ ،‬وعنصرا عمليا في الرؤية الجيوسياسية الروسية المناهضة للهيمنة األمريكية واستفرادها‬ ‫في القرار الدولي‪ .‬من هنا يمكن فهم طبيعة االندفاع الروسي صوب الشرق والجنوب‪ ،‬أي صوب الصين وآسيا الوسطى وإيران والمشرق‬ ‫العربي‪.48‬‬

‫‪ 45‬الالعبون الجدد في آسيا الوسطي‪ ,‬الصين وإيران وتركيا الالعبون الجدد فى آسيا الوسطى‪ ,‬مطيع هللا تائب‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/specialfiles/pages/6976e5ef-9f4a-4baf-ab68-ef902a45708e‬‬ ‫‪ 46‬بين الصراع والتعاون‪ :‬التنافس الدولي في آسيا الوسطى‪ ,‬د‪.‬حنان أبو سكين‪ 10 ,‬يونيو ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.acrseg.org/6940‬‬ ‫‪ 47‬األبعاد الجيوسياسية في الصراع الروسي ‪ -‬األمريكي حول إيران وسوريا‪ ,‬ميثم الجنابي‪ ,‬فبراير ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://www.ahewar.org/debat/show.art.asp?aid=295381‬‬ ‫‪ 48‬الصراع الروسي األمريكي حول المشرق العربي وإيران‪ ,‬ميثم الجنابي‬ ‫‪http://yi1.alyasaraliraqi.net/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B9‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A‬‬‫‪21‬‬

‫إال أن الموقف اإليراني ال يزال غامضا ً اتجاه داعش فى العراق بالتناقض مع موقفها اتجاه سوريا ففي الوقت التي أعلنت فيه وزارة الدفاع‬ ‫األمريكية بأن إيران قصفت مواقع لداعش إال أن إيران وفى الحال نفت ذلك دون اإلدالء بأي أسباب أو خطوات اتجاه األزمة العراقية الحالية‪.41‬‬

‫لبنان‬ ‫العالقات الرسمية بين الدولتين بدأت في عهد الرئيس اللبناني الراحل كميل شمعون (بين عامي ‪ 1952‬و‪ ،)1958‬والتي ترافقت مع إنشاء‬ ‫حلف بغداد الذي كانت إيران جزءا ً منه والذي أريد له أن يكون قوة في وجه امتداد نفوذ الرئيس جمال عبد الناصر‪ .‬وقد أسهم هذا الحلف في‬ ‫التقارب اللبناني ‪ -‬اإليراني وتوج هذا التقارب بزيارة شاه إيران إلى لبنان عام ‪1957‬م‪.42 .‬‬ ‫تحرص إيران فى عالقتها مع لبنان على تأمين مكانتها و نفوذها فى الداخل اللبناني الحتواء أي تداعيات سلبية والدليل على ذلك أنه فى عام‬ ‫‪ 2010‬تم توقيع ‪ 16‬إتفاقية ومذكرة تفاهم لتطوير التعاون بين البلدين خالل زيارة الرئيس اإليرانى "أحمدي نجاد" إلى لبنان‪.‬‬ ‫ال يمكن التوقف بالحديث عن لبنان إال بذكر واحدة من أهم العناصر التى تربط بن البلدين وهو "حزب هللا" فهى الجملة التي تأتي على األذهان‬ ‫ع كبير مع إيران‪ ,‬فلتوسع إيران عام ‪ 1982‬ونفوذها فى لبنان جاء بعد نشر‬ ‫عند ذكر العالقات اإليرانية اللبنانية‪ ,‬حيث لتاريخ هذه الجماعة با ُ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫‪ 1000‬عضو من أعضاء الحرس الثورى اإليرانى فى وادي البقاع ردا على االجتياح اإلسرائيلي بلبنان حيث قدم الحرس الثوري تدريبات‬ ‫عسكرية للمليشيات الشيعية اللبنانية والتى أصبحت القوة الدافعة وراء تشكيل حزب هللا‪.‬‬ ‫الدعم المادي والعسكري والسياسي واإلعالمي اإليراني لحزب هللا واضح ال لبس فيه‪ ،‬وإن كان يصعب تحديد حجمه‪ ،‬وهناك جهات إيرانية عديدة‬ ‫تعمل في حزب هللا‪ :‬حراس الثورة‪ ،‬وزارة الخارجية‪ ،‬مؤسسة الشهيد‪ ،‬وزارة اإلرشاد اإلسالمي‪ ،‬وزارة الداخلية‪ ،‬األجهزة األمنية‬ ‫االستخباراتية‪43.‬‬ ‫بالرغم مما يؤكده قادة الحزب بأنه لبناني ونشأ لبنانيا ً وجاء الدور السوري واإليراني الحقاً‪ ،‬إال أن المعطيات تؤكد أن إيران لعبت دوراً‬ ‫أساسيا ً في والدته ونشأته ونموه‪ ،‬وتصريحات قادة الحزب وميثاق الحزب تؤكد دوما ً التبعية للثورة اإليرانية ومرشدها‪ ،‬وصور قادة إيران وعلمها‬ ‫تسيطر على مرافق وفعاليات الحزب‪ ,‬كما أن حزب هللا كان سببا فى وضع إيران على قائمة الدولة الراعية لإلرهاب كما تم وضع الحرس الثوري‬ ‫اإليرانى على قائمة الجماعات اإلرهابية‪.44‬‬

‫إيران و اللعبة العظيمة‬ ‫بدأ استخدام مصطلح اللعبة العظيمة عندما أطلقه السياسيون البريطانيون على الصراع بين المملكة المتحدة واإلمبراطورية الروسية‬ ‫للسيطرة على دول آسيا الوسطى‪ ,‬وكان الصراع حينها بين اثنين فقط من الالعبين‪ .‬وحديثا ً بعد مرور قرن من الزمان‪ ,‬تجددت اللعبة العظيمة‬ ‫ولكن عدد الالعبين ازداد‪ ,‬من ناحية القوى العظمى مثل الواليات المتحدة األمريكية وروسيا والصين‪ ,‬ومن ناحية دول مثل الهند وتركيا وإيران‬ ‫وهي قوى صاعدة تحاول الحصول على ثروات دول آسيا الوسطي‪ .‬تتكون دول وسط آسيا من خمس دول تشمل أوزبكستان‪ ,‬تركمانستان‪,‬‬ ‫كاز خستان‪ ,‬طاجيكستان وقيرغيرستان‪ ,‬مع إمكانية ضم دولة أفغانستان‪ .‬تعد تلك المنطقة غنية بالثروات الطبيعية والطاقة مثل النفط والغاز‬ ‫الطبيعي مما جعلها محط اهتمام القوى العالمية‪.‬‬ ‫بالنسبة لدولة إيران فقد خلف انهيار االتحاد السوفيتي عام ‪ 1991‬فرصة أمام إيران لإلقامة عالقات اقتصادية وسياسية مع دول وسط آسيا في‬ ‫إطار الخروج من حالة العزلة المفروضة عليها من قبل أمريكا والعقوبات المفروضة عليها‪ ,‬ولم تركز إيران على تصدير الثورة اإلسالمية بل‬ ‫عمدت إلى تقديم نموذج فارسي يتسم بالطبيعة العملية‪ ,‬إلدراكها أن النخب الحاكمة في آسيا الوسطى قد تشربت القيم العلمانية مما يجعلها غير‬ ‫متقبلة لفكر الثورة اإلسالمية‪.‬‬ ‫أدركت إيران مدى التشابهة بينها وبين أغلب دول وسط آسيا فمن الناحية الجغرافية تتقاسم إيران مع تركمانستان حدوداً مشتركة وامتداداً عرقيا ً‬ ‫تركمانيا ً داخل إيران‪ ,‬إذ يوجد حوالي مليوني تركماني في إيران وتتمثل العالقات أيضا ً في مشاريع اقتصادية في مجال الطاقة والغاز وإنشاء‬ ‫‪http://www.bbc.co.uk/arabic/middleeast/2014/08/140813_iran_let_maliki_go‬‬ ‫‪Iran-Iraq relations, Will Fulton & Ariel Farrar & Robert Fresco, August 2011 41‬‬ ‫‪http://www.irantracker.org/foreign-relations/iraq-iran-foreign-relations‬‬ ‫‪ 42‬العالقات اللبنانية ـ اإليرانية بدأت مطلع القرن الماضي وتوطدت في عهد الجمهورية اإلسالمية‪ ,‬يوسف دياب‪ ,‬أكتوبر ‪ ,2010‬العدد ‪11642‬‬ ‫‪http://classic.aawsat.com/details.asp?section=4&issueno=11642&article=590687#.VINI1dKsWSp‬‬ ‫‪Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Authors: Greg Bruno, Jaycee Ajaria, and Jonathan Masters, June 14, 2013 43‬‬ ‫‪http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-revolutionary-guards/p14324‬‬ ‫‪Country Reports on Terrorism 2012, Office of the Spokesperson, May 2013 44‬‬ ‫‪http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/05/210103.htm‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬

‫كان النظام السوري بفعل الضغط الدولي المفروض عليه يسعى إلى تشكيل جبهة اقتصادية إقليمية من خالل مشروع مكون من ‪ 17‬مادة جرى‬ ‫التوقيع عليها وركزت على "التجارة واالستثمار والتخطيط واإلحصاءات والصناعات ووسائط النقل والصحة والزراعة والسياحة"‪ ،‬إال أن‬ ‫الجهود اإليرانية فشلت لتعزيز هذا الجانب‪.‬‬ ‫ودفع الضغط االقتصادي على الدولتين كال من إيران وسوريا إلى توقيع اتفاق تجارة حرة رمزي في ‪ 13‬ديسمبر ‪ ،2011‬لمحاولة التقليل‬ ‫من تأثير العقوبات االقتصادية التي فرضتها الواليات المتحدة واالتحاد األوروبي وبعض دول الجامعة العربية على إيران‪.37‬‬

‫إيران والثورة السورية‬ ‫مع بداية الثورة السورية رأت إيران أنها تمثل خطرا إستراتيجيا عليها‪ ،‬إذ إن إسقاط النظام العلوي في سوريا الذي كان مطلب الثوار‬ ‫سيكون من شأنه أن يطيح بأكبر حليف لها في الشرق األوسط‪ ،‬وهذا األمر له تبعاته على األمن القومي اإليراني و مصالحها اإلقليمية لذلك دعمت‬ ‫بكل قوة النظام السوري بالمال والسالح والجنود ومعدات وأسلحة وطائرات بدون طيار أيضا ً لم تقتصر المساعدة اإليرانية للنظام السوري على‬ ‫السالح والتكنولوجيا بل تعدتها إلى تقديم النصح والمشورة من قبل مسؤولين أمنيين عن سبل مواجهة المنشقين بحسب أحد المسؤولين األميركيين‪،‬‬ ‫وأضاف أن بعض هؤالء األمنيين اإليرانيين بقوا في سوريا لتقديم النصح لقوات األسد‪.‬‬ ‫ويمكن‪ ،‬من خالل تتبع الوسائل اإلعالم الرسمية إإليرانية‪ ،‬مدى الدعم اإليراني للنظام السوري‪ ،‬والتزام اإلعالم اإليراني بنقل الرواية الرسمية‬ ‫السورية لألحداث‪ ،‬وتغييب آراء المعارضة ‪ .‬وقد أكدت إيران‪ ،‬في أكثر من مناسبة‪ ،‬إيمانها بقدرة الحكومة السورية على التعامل مع األوضاع‪،‬‬ ‫وأعلنت دعمها إلصالحات التي أعلنها الرئيس بشاراألسد لتخفيف األزمة‪38.‬‬

‫العراق‬ ‫طردت العراق آية هللا الخمينى فى أكتوبر ‪ ،1978‬بعد خمسة عشر عاما ً من اإلقامة بالعراق مجاملة لنظام الشاه‪ ،‬لم تكن تتصور السلطات‬ ‫العراقية أنه سيعود بعد أربعة أشهر فقط من اإلقامة فى باريس ـ إلى إيران‪ ،‬على أنقاض نظام الشاه وما تشير إليه من وقائع واتجاهات‪ ،‬ال تكفى‬ ‫لتفسير التأزم المبكر الذى أصاب العالقات العراقية ـ اإليرانية‪ ،‬عقب الثورة اإليرانية حيث ظلت مشكلة ترسيم الحدود بين العراق وإيران‪ ،‬مصدر‬ ‫التوتر الرئيس بينهم‪ ،‬ومنبع الكثير من الخالفات والتصادمات التي بلغت ذروتها في حرب دامية بين البلدين تواصلت لثمانية أعوام‪.‬‬ ‫عند وصول صدام حسين إلى السلطة في العراق عام ‪ 1979‬شهدت العالقات بين العراق وإيران تدهورا إثر قيام الثورة اإلسالمية اإليرانية‪.‬‬ ‫تصاعدت التوترات بين البلدين وبدأت نذر الحرب تلوح في األفق مع تصاعد التدخالت في الشؤون الداخلية بينهما تقديم بغداد وطهران دعما‬ ‫ألطراف المعارضة في البلد اآلخر‪ ،‬فضال عن الحمالت اإلعالمية اإليرانية التى دعت إلى إسقاط نظام صدام حسين وتصدير ثورتها اإلسالمية‬ ‫إلى العراق‪ ،‬كما حدثت اشتباكات حدودية بين البلدين واتهامات متبادلة بقصف المدن والقصبات الحدودية‪ ،‬فاعتبر العراق ذلك بداية للحرب فقام‬ ‫الرئيس األسبق صدام حسين بإلغاء اتفاقية (الجزائر لعام ‪ )1975‬مع إيران عام ‪ ،1980‬واعتبار مياه شط العرب كاملة جزءاً من المياه اإلقليمية‬ ‫العراقية‪ ،‬وفي ‪ 22‬سبتمبر ‪ 1980‬هاجم العراق أهدافا في العمق اإليراني‪ ،‬وبدأت إيران بقصف أهداف عسكرية واقتصادية عراقية ‪ ،39‬ومن‬ ‫هنا بدأت حرب الخليج األولى و التى تعتبر أطول حرب فى التاريخ حيث استمرت ثماني سنوات ‪ 1988 - 1980‬انتهت حرب الخليج األولى‬ ‫بخسارة البلدين‪ ،‬ولكن تكبدت العراق خسارة فادحة وخاصة عقب حرب الخليج الثانية والتى على أثرها انهار نظام صدام حسين بالعراق‪.‬‬ ‫كان النهيار نظام صدام حسين ‪ 2003‬أثر كبير فى تأسيس حقبة جديدة من العالقات اإليرانية العراقية حيث عملت إيران على توطيد العالقات‬ ‫اقتصاديا ً وسياسيا ً و عسكريا ً ففى عام ‪ 2010‬تضاعف حجم التبادل التجارى بين البلدين عشرة أضعاف منذ عام ‪ 2003‬كما تم التوقيع على صفقة‬ ‫غاز طبيعى بلغت ‪ 10‬مليارات دوالر بين إيران وسوريا والعراق‪.‬‬ ‫استمرت إيران فى دعم الحكومات المتعاقبة على العراق إال أن موقفها اختلف تماما ً إزاء حكومة المالكي حيث أعلنت دعمها لألصوات المنادية‬ ‫بإقالة حكومة المالكي معلنة أنه فشل فى وقف توغل تنظيم الدولة اإلسالمية فى العراق و أنهم قاموا بدعمه فى بداية األمر ألن الكتلة الشيعية فى‬ ‫البرلمان العراقي أرادت ذلك كما أعلنت دعمها بشكل غير متوقع للضربات األمريكية الجوية لمواقع تنظيم الدولة اإلسالمية فلقد أصبح من‬ ‫الواضح أن التهديد الذي تمثله الدولة اإلسالمية عامال آخر وراء قرار طهران ودعمها لحكومة عبادي فى العراق‪40.‬‬

‫‪ 37‬البيان‪ ,‬العالقات اإليرانية السورية‪ ,‬أحمد أبو دقة‪ ,‬أكتوبر‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.albayan.co.uk/Article2.aspx?id=3419‬‬ ‫‪ 38‬فراس أبو هالل‪ ,‬إيران والثورات العربية‪ :‬الموقف والتداعيات‪ ,‬المركز العربي لألبحاث ودراسة السياسات‪ ,‬معهد الدوحة‪ ,‬يوليو ‪2011‬‬ ‫‪http://www.dohainstitute.org/file/get/dd2ac89c-2c80-45f2-9c3e-bea1c815a6f5.pdf‬‬ ‫‪ 39‬إيران والعراق وحروب الحدود‪ ,‬رحمة السالم‪ ,‬يناير ‪ ,2010‬العدد ‪11357‬‬ ‫‪http://classic.aawsat.com/details.asp?section=45&article=550945&issueno=11357#.VINKc9KsWSo‬‬ ‫‪ 40‬بوزورجمهر شرف الدين‪ ,‬لماذا تخلت إيران عن المالكي ‪ ,‬أغسطس ‪BBC ,2014‬عربي‬ ‫‪19‬‬

‫"إن من سوء حظ أمة أن تتكل أو ترتبط أو توقع اتفاقية مع حكومة عدوة لإلسالم ووقفت في وجه اإلسالم وغصبت فلسطين " آية هللا‬ ‫الخمينى ‪1964‬‬ ‫حافظ الخمينى على البعد الديني للقضية الفلسطينية‪ ،‬فإسرائيل في نظره عدوة اإلسالم فأُجليت البعثة اإلسرائيلية من طهران واقتحم الثوار مكتبها‬ ‫وأحرقوه‪ ،‬وقطعت حكومة بازركان كل العالقات مع إسرائيل‪ ،‬بما في ذلك مبيعات النفط والرحالت الجوية‪.34‬‬ ‫وبالرغم من ّ‬ ‫سري أيضا ً بين الجانبين‪،‬‬ ‫أن التوترات بين إيران وإسرائيل أخذت منهجا ً تصعيدياً‪ ،‬منذ عام ‪ ،1979‬فإنه حصل في الوقت نفسه تعاون ّ‬ ‫هذا األمر الذي يعود إلى اندالع الحرب بين العراق وإيران في سبتمبر عام ‪ .1980‬وبينما أيّد العالم الغربي بأسره تقريبا ً في هذه الفترة الجانب‬ ‫العراقي‪ّ ،‬‬ ‫فإن إسرائيل وقفت إلى جانب خميني‪ ،‬إذ اعتبرت نظام صدام حسين مصدر الخطورة‪ ,‬وفقا لمعهد تل أبيب للدراسات األمن القومى فلقد‬ ‫زودت إسرائيل إيران بسالح بلغ ‪ 500‬مليون دوالر فى أول ثالث سنوات من الحرب‪ ،‬انتشرت في مسته ّل الثمانينيات شائعات تقول ّ‬ ‫إن العراق‬ ‫يسعى إلى بناء قنبلة نووية‪ ،‬اعتبرت إسرائيل وإيران على ح ٍدّ سواء أنّه ال يمكن قبول ذلك؛ وعليه‪ّ ،‬‬ ‫فإن االستخبارات اإليرانية قدمت إلى السالح‬ ‫الجوي اإلسرائيلي معلومات مه ّمة مكنته عام ‪ 1981‬من إلقاء القنابل فوق مفاعل أوزيراك العراقي لعرقلة تنفيذ البرنامج النووي العراقي لعدة‬ ‫سنوات‪.35‬‬ ‫بعد وفاة الخمينى‪ ,‬طرأت العديد من األحداث التى غيرت المسار الخارجي مع إسرائيل حيث تفكك االتحاد السوفيتى "الحليف التاريخى للعراق"‬ ‫وخروج صدام بخسائر فادحة بعد حرب الخليج الثانية وبذلك انهار العدو التاريخى إليران وشعرت إيران باالنتصار السياسى إال أن إسرائيل‬ ‫وجدت فى ذلك خطرا ً جديدا ً حيث رأت أن إيران سوف تؤدي دور المهيمن اإلقليمي الجديد‪.‬‬ ‫عندما أدركت السياسة اإلسرائيلية أن إيران تخطط للسيطرة على المنطقة والتحول إلى قوة عالمية‪ ،‬رسمت طريقا ً جديدة لنفسها واتجهت إلى‬ ‫اإلحاطة بالعرب وإيران معا ً من خالل إقامة صداقات مع تركيا والهند ودول أواسط آسيا‪ ،‬واعتبرت أن العالقة اإليرانية اإلسرائيلية أصبحت‬ ‫عالقة عدائية في ظل البرنامج النووي الذي قد يتحول إلى برنامج مسلح ينتج قنبلة تغيّر ميزان القوى بالمنطقة‪.36‬‬ ‫أصبحت إيران خطرا يهدد إسرائيل وخاصة بعد اتفاق إيران ومجموعة )‪ (P5+1‬على حل شامل إلنهاء أزمة إيران النووية حيث صرح‬ ‫نتنياهو بأن هذا االتفاق خطأ تاريخي وأن إيران كانت وال تزال خطر يهدد دول العالم والتوصل إلى اتفاق معها يعني إعطاءها مساحة قوية‬ ‫ومنحها الفرصة الحقيقية المتالك سالح نووي‪.‬‬

‫سوريا‬ ‫إيران دولة غالبية سكانها من العرقية الفارسية و ينتمون للطائفة الشيعية بعكس سوريا التي يتحدث أهلها اللغة العربية وغالبيتهم من أهل‬ ‫الجماعة والسنة‪ ،‬لذلك منذ الثورة اإليرانية بدأ النظام الحاكم في طهران يبحث عن حلفاء في المنطقة سواء وفق أسس ثورية أم منطلقات دينية‪.‬‬ ‫جزء كبير من التحالف اإليراني السوري يعود أساسه للدين‪ ،‬و هذا يبرره قوافل الحجاج اإليرانيين الذين يأتون سنويا ً لزيارة مقام السيدة زينب‬ ‫في دمشق‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى ما يقرب من ‪ 50‬ضريحا ً ومزارا ً شيعيا ً في سوريا يتم زيارتها و اإلعتناء بها من قبل شيعة إيران‪.‬‬ ‫تعززت العالقات السياسية بين سوريا و إيران بعد الثورة اإليرانية وبداية الحكم الديني للجمهورية اإليرانية‪ ،‬حيث أرسلت طهران وفود مختلفة‬ ‫لبدأ تدشين عالقات دبلوماسية عميقة بين الطرفين بالتزامن مع توقيع ميثاق العمل القومي المشترك بين العراق و سوريا الذي انسحبت العراق‬ ‫منه بعد فترة قصيرة بعد سيطرة صدام حسين على الحكم‪ ،‬و في عام ‪ 1980‬م اندلعت الحرب العراقية اإليرانية في حينها وقفت سوريا إلى جانب‬ ‫حليفتها إيران و عادت العالقات السورية العراقية إلى نقطة الصفر‪.‬‬ ‫بعد االجتياح العراقي للكويت في تسعينيات القرن الماضي و بدء إنشاء تحالف دولي إلسقاط صدام حسين و تسارع األحداث حتى احتالل العراق‬ ‫عام ‪ 2003‬استغلت إيران انهيار العراق و بدأت بتوسيع نفوذها وكانت قاعدة انطالقها للمنطقة هي سوريا‪ ,‬من خالل استضافة األحزاب والحركات‬ ‫المتحالفة معها وتوفير قواعد دعم لوجستي لتلك األطراف وأصبحت إيران الداعم األساسي للصناعات العسكرية السورية بالتزامن مع دعمها‬ ‫لحزب هللا في لبنان وأحزاب عراقية أخرى للتمهيد إلنشاء محور شيعي مؤثر في المنطقة‪.‬‬

‫‪ 34‬الثابت والمتحول في العالقة اإليرانية اإلسرائيلية‪ ,‬حذام زهور عدي‪ ,‬اكتوبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://nashwannews.com/articles.php?action=view&id=8673‬‬ ‫‪ 35‬العالقات اإليرانية اإلسرائيلية‪ :‬أبعد من األيديولوجيا‪ ,‬عبد القادر نعناع‪ ,‬مارس ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.ahwazna.org/details.php?recordID=8969‬‬ ‫‪ 36‬الثابت والمتحول في العالقة اإليرانية اإلسرائيلية‪ ,‬حذام زهور عدي‪ ,‬اكتوبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://nashwannews.com/articles.php?action=view&id=8673‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬

‫العالقات اإليرانية بدول الشرق األوسط‬ ‫تركيا‬ ‫بإرث ال يمكن تجاوزه من العداء بين الدولتين العثمانية والصفوية على الخلفية المذهبية الشيعية‪-‬السنية‪ ،،‬هكذا استمرت العالقات التركية‬ ‫اإليرانية حتى تأسيس الجمهورية التركية سنة ‪ ،1923‬حيث أصبحت العالقة جيدة كما جذبت اإلصالحات التركية التي قام بها أتاتورك من اتباعه‬ ‫الحداثة الغربية انتباه الشاه اإليراني رضا بهلوي وجعلته يحاول القيام بمثل تلك اإلصالحات في بالده‪ .‬و بعد الثورة اإليرانية انقطعت فجأة تلك‬ ‫العالقات واتسمت بالجمود فلم يخف بعض األتراك خوفهم من تصدير الثورة اإلسالمية اإليرانية إلى بلد إسالمي مهم كتركيا‪ ،‬والعكس بالنسبة‬ ‫لإليرانيين الذين أبدوا قلقا من العلمانية التركية‪.‬‬ ‫بعد وفاة أتاتورك وصعود حزب الرفاه التركي بزعامة نجم الدين أربكان كان من أبرز إنجازاته توقيع صفقة بقيمة ‪ 23‬مليار دوالر لتوصيل‬ ‫الغاز الطبيعي من إيران مدة تزيد عن ‪ 25‬عا ًما‪ ,‬ولكن قاعدة نفوذ أربكان لم تكن صلبة بما يكفي لمقاومة المعارضة وفي عام ‪ ،1998‬وتحت‬ ‫ضغط من الجيش‪ ،‬أعلنت المحاكم التركية عدم مشروعية حزب الرفاه الذي يتزعمه أربكان وأرغموه على ترك منصبه‪ .‬قامت المجموعة األساسية‬ ‫في الحزب بإعادة تنظيم نفسها تحت راية حزب العدالة والتنمية‪ ،‬والذي فاز في االنتخابات البرلمانية في عام ‪ 2002‬وش ّكل بناء على ذلك الحكومة‬ ‫التركية‪ .‬ومنذ ذلك الحين‪ ،‬استقرت العالقات التركية‪-‬اإليرانية‪ ،‬ففي فبراير من عام ‪ ،2007‬اتفقت تركيا مع إيران على صفقتي طاقة إضافيتين‬ ‫األولى‪ :‬تتيح لمؤسسة البترول التركية التنقيب عن النفط والغاز الطبيعي في إيران‪ ،‬وأخرى لنقل الغاز من تركمانستان إلى تركيا (ومن ثم إلى‬ ‫أوروبا) من خالل خط أنابيب يمر في إيران كما تجاوز حجم المبادالت التجارية بينهما عام ‪ 2008‬خمسة مليارات دوالر بعد أن كان قد وصل‬ ‫إلى مليار و مائة مليون دوالر عام ‪ ،2001‬وبالفعل بلغ حجم التجارة الثنائية بين إيران وتركيا عام ‪ 2011‬أكثر من ‪ 16‬مليار دوالر‪ ،‬ومن‬ ‫المتوقع أن يصل إلى ‪ 30‬مليار دوالر عام ‪.2015‬‬ ‫وعلى الرغم من التعاون االقتصادي بين البلدين فإن التوترات بينهم قد تفاقمت عندما وافقت تركيا على استضافة محطة لدرع الدفاع‬ ‫الصاروخي لمنظمة حلف شمال األطلسي في شرق األناضول الذي تم "تسويقه" من قبل اإلدارات المتعاقبة في الواليات المتحدة كرادع للقدرات‬ ‫الصاروخية المتنامية إليران‪ ،‬أما القضية النووية اإليرانية ونظام العقوبات على طهران‪ ،‬فقد وجدت تركيا نفسها محصورة بين مطالب الواليات‬ ‫المتحدة لتشديد العقوبات ضد إيران‪ ،‬وحماية مصالحها االقتصادية‪ ،‬لهذا خفضت أنقرة واردات النفط من إيران بنسبة ‪ 20‬بالمئة‪ ,‬بالرغم من إشارة‬ ‫وتكرارا إلى أن تركيا لن تدعم أي عمل عسكري ضد إيران وأنها تدعم برنامج إيران للطاقة النووية‪ ،‬وهذا‬ ‫مرارا‬ ‫مسؤولي حزب العدالة والتنمية‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ً‬ ‫يفسر لماذا حاول أردوغان أن يعمل كوسيط في القضية النووية‪ ،‬وهي جهود بلغت ذروتها في اتفاق طهران الذي تم التفاوض بشأنه بنجاح مع‬ ‫الرئيس البرازيلي السابق لوال ومحمود أحمدي نجاد في مايو عام ‪ 2010‬إال أنه تم إسقاط المبادرة في نهاية المطاف من قبل االتحاد األوروبي‬ ‫والواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬ولكن حقيقة أن أردوغان ولوال كانا على استعداد لقيادة حملة دبلوماسية كبيرة تؤثر قصدًا على مطالب الواليات المتحدة لتقرر‬ ‫اعتماد الدبلوماسية بشأن الملف النووي اإليراني تشير إلى تأكيد الذات الذي اكتسبته تركيا حديثًا في مجال الشؤون الدولية‪ ,‬باإلضافة إلى موقف‬ ‫تركيا حيال سوريا يعبّر عن الثقة بالنفس التي تبديها أنقرة باعتبارها قوة إقليمية في غرب آسيا وشمال إفريقيا‪ ،‬فإن دعمها لقوى المعارضة‬ ‫المناهضة لحكم بشار األسد في سوريا قد فتح الباب أمام التنافس مع إيران والتي لها ادعاءات مماثلة وتدعم بقوة نظام األسد‪. 32 .31‬‬

‫إسرائيل‪:‬‬ ‫عالقات قوية لكنها سرية معقدة‪ ,‬فبعد عامين من تأسيسها اعترفت إيران عام ‪ 1950‬بدولة إسرائيل وعلى الرغم من محاوالت إيران‬ ‫التراجع عن ذلك االعتراف بطرق شتى فإن تحالفا ً استراتيجيا ً قد تم بين الدولتين واستمر هذا التحالف حتى سقوط الحكم البهلوي عام ‪.1979‬‬ ‫ومن عام ‪ 1958‬إلى أواخر الستينات و بداية السبعينات شهدت العالقات اإليرانية اإلسرائيلية تعاونا ً كبيرا ً حيث بدأت إسرائيل فى تقديم المساعدات‬ ‫األمنية للقوات اإليرانية فى الوقت الذى عملت فيه إيران على إنشاء مشاريع تهدف إلى تصدير النفط اإليرانى إلى إسرائيل وخاصة عقب إغالق‬ ‫قناة السويس ‪ 1967‬فلقد شرعت إيران وإسرائيل بإنشاء خط أنابيب إيالت‪-‬عسقالن كما بلغت الصادرات اإلسرائيلية إلى إيران ‪ 103.2‬مليون‬ ‫دوالر عام ‪ 1977‬بمعدل تصدير أعلى من اليابان وتركيا‪.33‬‬

‫‪ 31‬العالقات التركية اإليرانية‪ ,‬بين التنافس والتعاون‪ ,‬حافظ النويني‪ ,‬مارس ‪2013‬‬ ‫‪http://www.ahewar.org/debat/show.art.asp?aid=347764‬‬ ‫‪ 32‬العالقات التركية اإليرانية‪ :‬أخوة إسالمية أم تنافس إقليمي؟‪ ,‬د‪.‬آرشين أديب مقدم‪ ,‬مايو ‪2013‬‬ ‫‪http://studies.aljazeera.net/reports/2013/05/201359113837501211.htm‬‬ ‫‪ISRAEL I. RELATIONS WITH IRAN, diplomatic relations with Iran 33‬‬ ‫‪http://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/israel-i-relations-with-iran‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬

‫منذ اندالع المواجهات المسلحة بينها‪ ،‬وبين الدولة اليمنية ‪2004‬م‪ ،‬من قبل إيران وبشكل واضح‪ ،‬وكذلك دعم فصيل الحراك االنفصالي المسلح‬ ‫الذي يتزعمه الرئيس األسبق للشطر الجنوبي (علي سالم البيض)‪.‬‬ ‫وتأتي في هذا اإلطار حادثة إيقاف السفينة اإليرانية "جيهان‪ "1‬في مياه خليج عدن فبراير ‪ 2013‬وهي قادمة من إيران محملة بكميات كبيرة من‬ ‫األسلحة الثقيلة والمتطورة‪ ،‬وتصريح رئيس لجنة الهيكلة بوزارة الداخلية بأن تلك األسلحة كانت متوجهة إلى الحوثيين‪ ،‬دليالً كافيا ً على مدى‬ ‫التورط اإليراني في اليمن خالل هذه المرحلة‪.‬‬ ‫العالقة القائمة اليوم بين إيران وجماعة الحوثي عالقة سياسية براغماتية ترتكز على تحقيق مصالح الطرفين‪ .‬كما ساعد في خدمة مشروع‬ ‫الحوثيين أنهم استفادوا من حالة الصراع اإلقليمي المحتدم بين محوري إيران والمملكة العربية السعودية‪ ،‬فكان رفضهم للمبادرة التي ترعاها‬ ‫رسميا المملكة لحل األزمة اليمنية تبدى بشكل كبير من خالل ازدياد نشاط طهران الكبير على الساحة اليمنية‪ ،‬وخاصة مع إقالة صالح وصعود‬ ‫هادي إلى الرئاسة‪ ،‬حيث عملت إيران على إعادة تأهيل كثير من كوادر الحوثيين وكل الذين يلتقون عند هدفهم‪.27‬‬

‫العالقات اإليرانية البحرينية‬ ‫يشكل الشيعة في البحرين نحو نصف السكان‪ ،‬من العقيدة االثني عشرية كشيعة إيران‪ .28‬مرت العالقة بين الطرفين بالعديد من المحطات‬ ‫المهمة منذ حصول البحرين على استقاللها فى العام ‪ ,1971‬فظهور الثورة اإلسالمية في عام ‪ 1979‬غيّر بشكل كبير ديناميات المنطقة‪ ،‬فضالً‬ ‫عن إشعال الصراعات العسكرية مع العراق المجاورة‪.‬‬ ‫شهد قيام الجمهورية اإلسالمية في إيران منعطفا دراميا نحو العداء في العالقات مع ملوك الخليج السنّة كما أن ظهور وصعود الحكومة الشيعية‬ ‫في إيران أدت بال شك إلى تغيير ديناميكية السياسة الداخلية في البحرين من عالقات متبادلة بين آل خليفة والشاه قبل الثورة االسالمية فانقسم‬ ‫التيار الشيعى فى البحرين إلى تيارين‪ :‬تيار صغير محافظ لم يطالب سوى ببعض اإلصالحات لتحسين وضعه الطائفي ‪ ،‬أما التيار الثانى‪ ،‬وهو‬ ‫األكبر فقد اتخذ من الثورة نموذجا ً يمكن تطبيقه فى البحرين‪ ،‬وذلك من خالل اإلطاحة بالنظام الحاكم وإقامة نظام جمهورى إسالمى بدالً منه مما‬ ‫أدى إلى دخول البحرين فى العديد من االضطرابات والتظاهرات من قبل الشيعة‪.‬‬ ‫ومع ذلك‪ ،‬فإن التعامل العقالني والعملي بين هذه الدول طوال األربعين عاما ً الماضية تدعم القول بأن النزاع الحالي بين البحرين وإيران ليست‬ ‫طائفية بقدر ما تكون استراتيجية‪ ،‬وعلى الرغم من محاوالت تصوير االضطرابات في البحرين كمؤامرة شيعية‪ ،‬فإن السياق التاريخي يوضح أن‬ ‫الخالف هو خالف قائم من أجل المشاركة في السلطة وليس خالفا بسبب األيديولوجيا أو األفكار‪ ،‬في ظل الصراعات الراهنة في المنطقة‪.29‬‬ ‫جعلت االضطرابات التي عادت إلى الظهور في البحرين في شهر فبراير ‪ 2011‬األسرة الحاكمة السنية آل خليفة‪ ،‬مثل غيرها من الملكيات السنية‬ ‫المجاورة تلقي اللوم على إيران بتهمة التحريض على االضطرابات الشعبية‪ ،‬ومع أولى بوادر المعارضة‪ ،‬شددت الحكومة البحرينية على الطبيعة‬ ‫الطائفية لالحتجاجات‪ ،‬متهمة إيران وحركة حزب هللا اللبناني بالتحريض على المعارضة من خالل عالقاتها مع األطراف المتشددة في األغلبية‬ ‫الشيعية في البحرين وأن هناك مؤامرة خارجية تم تغذيتها من‪ 20‬إلى ‪ 30‬سنة حتى أصبحت األرض مهيأة لعملياتها التخريبية‪.‬‬ ‫وفي أكتوبر ‪ ، 2013‬أدين أكثر من اثني عشر ناشطا في المعارضة بالتجسس لصالح إيران‪ ،‬وحكم عليهم بالسجن من ‪ 5‬إلى ‪ 15‬سنة لصالتهم‬ ‫المزعومة بإيران وتحديدا بـ "القيادة العليا وأعضاء من الحرس الثوري"‪ ،‬في حين تم إلى حد كبير دحض المزاعم حول تورط إيران في هذه‬ ‫االنتفاضة الشعبية من قبل أدلة الخبراء‪ ،‬بما في ذلك لجنة التحقيق البرلمانية في السياسة البريطانية مع المملكة العربية السعودية والبحرين في‬ ‫وقت سابق من العام ‪.2013‬‬ ‫لقد كانت وال تزال إيران ذات األغلبية الشيعية منذ أمد طويل مثيرة للمتاعب اإلقليمية في عدد من دول الخليج ‪ ،‬وال سيما من خالل‬ ‫مزاعمها في البحرين‪.30‬‬ ‫‪ 27‬حقيقة التدخل اإليراني فى اليمن‪ ,‬نبيل البكري‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/knowledgegate/opinions/2013/4/25/%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%AE%D9%84‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%86‬‬ ‫‪ 28‬الدور اإليراني فى أزمة البحرين‪ ,‬ناصر الشيخ عبد هللا الفضالة‪ ,‬يناير ‪2013‬‬ ‫‪http://www.albayan.co.uk/MGZarticle2.aspx?ID=2497‬‬ ‫‪ 29‬مختارات إيرانية – مركز األهرام للدراسات السياسية واالستراتيجية‪ ,‬العالقات البحرينية اإليرانية بين أزمات الماضي وآفاق المستقبل‪ ,‬أحمد مينسي‬ ‫‪http://www.albainah.net/index.aspx?function=Item&id=1473&lang‬‬ ‫‪ 30‬مركز البحرين للدراسات فى لندن‪ ,‬إيران والسؤال البحريني‪ :‬طائفية أم استراتيجية؟‪ ,‬نوفمبر ‪2013‬‬ ‫‪http://www.bcsl.org.uk/ar/studies/iran-and-the-bahrain-question‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬

‫منطقة استراحة للسفن القادمة والمغادرة من المضيق‪.‬وعرضت أبو ظبي على طهران إجراء مباحثات بشأن هذه المسألة غير أن الجانب اإليراني‬ ‫نأى بنفسه عن مناقشة المسألة‪ ،‬كما رفض سنة ‪ 1996‬اقتراحا من مجلس التعاون الخليجي بإحالة النزاع إلى محكمة العدل الدولية‪.‬‬ ‫ال يمكن تجاهل العامل االقتصادي في العالقات بين البلدين‪ ،‬فقد جاء في تصريح لمدير منظمة تنمية التجارة اإليرانية مهدي فتح هللا‪ ،‬أن اإلمارات‬ ‫هي الشريك التجاري األول إليران حيث تأسست الشركات اإليرانية في دبي قبل الثورة اإلسالمية بسنوات طويلة‪ .‬وثمة من يتحدث عن أكثر من‬ ‫‪ 8000‬شركة فى دولة اإلمارات العربية المتحدة معظمها في دبي‪ ،‬التى تعتبر أفضل مكان لإليرانيين حيث يستقر فيها رجال األعمال ويوفرون‬ ‫ألوالدهم فرص االلتحاق بجامعات أمريكية وأسترالية لها فروع فى اإلمارة‪.‬‬ ‫وفق المصادر اإليرانية فقد وصل حجم صادرات اإلمارات إلى إيران في السنة المالية اإليرانية ‪-‬التي انتهت في ‪ 20‬مارس ‪ -2006‬نحو ‪7.5‬‬ ‫مليارات دوالر‪ ،‬فيما بلغ حجم صادرات إيران إلى اإلمارات ‪ 2.5‬مليار دوالر‪.24‬‬ ‫دبي العاصمة االقتصادية‪ ،‬صاحبة الدور األبرز في العالقة مع إيران ففي الوقت الذي يفترض فيه أن تنفذ هذه العاصمة العقوبات التي‬ ‫فرضها مجلس األمن على إيران عام ‪ 2010‬ومارست الواليات المتحدة الضغوط المباشرة لتطبيق تلك العقوبات‪ ،‬فإن حجم التبادل التجارى بين‬ ‫إيران وبين دول الخليج‪ ،‬قد زاد مع بعض هذه الدول ومرد ذلك إلى "القرب الجغرافى مع دول الخليج واألسعار المناسبة وسهولة الترخيص وقلة‬ ‫الضغوط بالمقارنة مع الغرب فيما يتعلق بالعملية المصرفية وسهولة التحويالت والتعامالت المالية"‪ .‬ويصل حجم المبادالت التجارية بين إيران‬ ‫ودول مجلس التعاون الخليجى إلى مليار دوالر فى العام‪ ،‬ويبلغ حجم التصدير وإعادة التصدير من دول الخليج إلى إيران حوالى ‪ 8.5‬مليار‬ ‫دوالر‪.‬‬ ‫بحسب معظم التقارير والدراسات يعيش فى دولة االمارات العربية المتحدة نحو أربعمائة ألف إيراني‪ .‬وإذا احتسبنا الجنسيات األجنبية األخرى‬ ‫من الفلبين وباكستان والهند وسواها‪ ،‬ألصبح عدد اإليرانيين أكبر بكثير قياسا ً إلى السكان األصليين‪ ،‬وهذه معضلة ديمغرافية استراتيجية تعانى‬ ‫منها دول الخليج عموما ً وتشكل أحد مصادر قلقها المستقبلى‪.‬‬ ‫وينفق اإليرانيون فى دبي مبالغ كبيرة‪ ،‬ويقدر حجم االستثمارات اإليرانية فى الشركات والعقارات بنحو ‪ 300‬مليار دوالر‪ ،‬ما يعنى أن نسبة ‪15‬‬ ‫بالمئة من العقارات فى دبي مملوكة إليرانيين ‪ .‬وتسهم كل أزمة داخل إيران فى زيادة حجم االستثمارات اإليرانية فى دبي‪ ،‬إذ بعد أيام قليلة على‬ ‫فوز محمود أحمدى نجاد بمنصب رئيس الجمهورية فى يونيو عام ‪ 2005‬وصل إلى دبي ‪ 200‬مليون دوالر من إيران‪.‬‬ ‫إذن تبدو العالقات االقتصادية اإليرانية مع دبي قوية وراسخة على الرغم من الخالفات السياسية واألمنية اإليرانية‪-‬الخليجية عموما‪ ،‬وعلى‬ ‫الرغم من الضغوط األميركية للتقيد بالعقوبات المفروضة على إيران‪ ،‬ولعل هذه العالقة االقتصادية وهذا الحجم الكبير والمؤثر للشركات اإليرانية‬ ‫في دبي هو الذي يمنع أي توتر بين البلدين أن يدوم طويال‪.25‬‬

‫اليمن‬ ‫منذ قيام نظام الجمهورية في إيران بقيام الثورة الخمينية عام ‪ 1979‬م‪ ،‬والعالقة بين اليمن وإيران تمر بمنعطفات وتحوالت‪ ،‬فتارة يلوح‬ ‫بالتحسن والتطور‪ ،‬وتارة تصل إلى حدة التأزم‪ ،‬بسبب التدخالت المباشرة في الشئون الداخلية لليمن من خالل عالقاتها بالحركة الحوثية في شمال‬ ‫اليمن‪ ،‬ودعمها اللوجستي لها‪.‬‬ ‫يتمتع اليمن بموقع استراتيجي فريد‪ ،‬فهو يمسك بزمام مفاتيح الباب الجنوبي للبحر األحمر‪ ،‬ويسيطر على طرق المالحة الدولية عبر‬ ‫مضيق باب المندب‪ ،‬الذي يربط حزام أمن الجزيرة والخليج العربي‪ ،‬ابتدا ًء من قناة السويس وانتهاء بشط العرب‪ .‬مما جعل إيران تركز على‬ ‫اليمن للسيطرة على طريق المالحة الدولية عبر مضيق باب المندب وجزيرة ميون وسقطرة‪ ،‬وكذلك ميناء ميدي الذي سعى الحوثيون أكثر من‬ ‫مرة وما يزالون للسيطرة عليه بشتى السبل والوسائل‪ ،‬وبذلك أصبحت اليمن ظهيرا ً آمنا ً لكل من السعودية وسلطنة عمان أوالً‪ ،‬ولبقية دول الخليج‬ ‫العربي ثانياً‪ ،‬من خالل حمايتها لحدودهما البرية الجنوبية بالنسبة للسعودية والغربية بالنسبة لسلطنة عمان‪.26‬‬ ‫مع توقيع المبادرة الخليجية بشأن انتقال السلطة سلميا ً في اليمن‪ ،‬بدأت تظهر بقوة مالمح هذا التغلغل اإليراني بتمويل طهران لعدد من األحزاب‬ ‫كحزب األمة والحزب الديمقراطي اليمني ‪ ،‬فضال عن تمويل عدد من وسائل اإلعالم ما بين صحف وقنوات فضائية‪ ,‬وأيضا دعم الحركة الحوثية‬

‫‪ 24‬اإلمارات وإيران بين تحالف الجزر والمحفزات االقتصادية‪ ,‬شاهر األحمد‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/specialfiles/pages/da831203-e1b4-4023-86cf-18f07e1203ff‬‬ ‫‪ 25‬المركز العربي لألبحاث ودراسة السياسات‪ ,‬عالقات إيران مع دول المشرق العربي ودول الخليج‪ ,‬دول الخليج وإيران‪ ,‬طالل عتريسي‪ ,‬يناير‪2011‬‬ ‫‪http://www.dohainstitute.org/release/ea9a44bd-a864-4f4d-9010-b2f2ebd09b4c#r4‬‬ ‫‪ 26‬مركز المزماة للدراسات والبحوث‪ ,‬العالقات اليمنية اإليرانية وأثرها في أمن الخليج‪ ,‬جهاد عبد الرحمن أحمد‪ ,‬ديسمبر ‪2013‬‬ ‫‪http://almezmaah.com/ar/news-view-3819.html‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬

‫ثانيا‪ :‬التنافس على صدارة العالم اإلسالمي‪ ،‬فمن خاللها يمكن الحديث عن القضية الفلسطينية ودعم المقاومة‪ ،‬أو دعم التسوية والسلطة الفلسطينية‬ ‫حيث نجحت إيران في موقفها المعلن والمعادي إلسرائيل من وضع نفسها في المعسكر الذي يرضي الشعوب‪ .‬كما يأتى الملف األفغاني الذي‬ ‫يحضر البلدان فيه بقوة‪ :‬فالمملكة العربية السعودية كانت لها عالقاتها مع المجاهدين األفغان الذي كانوا يحاربون " السوفيت"‪ ،‬وإيران ما بعد‬ ‫الثورة كانت تبدأ فصال جديدا من العالقات مع االتحاد السوفيتي‪ ،‬وفي الوقت نفسه عززت من تحالفها مع المجموعات الشيعية األفغانية‪ .‬ولعل‬ ‫هذا األمر لم يتغير كثيرا حتى بعد الحرب على أفغانستان‪.21‬‬ ‫"إيران تريده أمنا ً خليجيا ً مشتركاً‪ ،‬ودول الخليج تريده أمنا ً تضمنه أو تحميه الواليات المتحدة"‬ ‫تلك هى القوى الثالثة حيث المخاوف المتبادلة بين الطرفين للتنامي المطرد لقدرات إيران العسكرية و برنامجها النووي حيث ال تنظر إيران إلى‬ ‫الموقف السعودي من برنامجها النووي إال أنه صدى للموقف األمريكي حيث صفقات األسلحة السعودية مع الواليات المتحدة‪ ،‬وقواعد الواليات‬ ‫المتحدة في الخليج والتنسيق األمريكي مع المملكة‪ .‬وما يختصر ذلك كله باألمن في الخليج‪ ،‬في حين ترى المملكة العربية السعودية أن القلق من‬ ‫البرنامج النووي مشروع‪ ،‬وأن المطلوب تعاون إيراني أكثر مع الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية‪.22‬‬

‫إيران وشيعة السعودية‪:‬‬ ‫تقدّر نسبة الشيعة في المملكة العربية السعودية اليوم حوالي ‪ %15‬من العدد اإلجمالي للسكان المحليين‪ ،‬ويتركزون في مناطق أخرى في‬ ‫المدينة‪ ،‬وفي الجنوب‪ ،‬في عسي وجيزان ونجران‪ ،‬وفي الغرب‪ ،‬في جدة ينبع‪ .‬وتتنوع انتماءاتهم المذهبية ما بين اإلمامية(الجعفرية)‪ ،‬وهو مذهب‬ ‫الغالبية‪ ،‬واإلسماعيلية‪ ،‬والزيدية‪.‬‬ ‫تتجنب األغلبية الساحقة من الشيعة السعوديين إقامة عالقات سياسية رسمية مع الجمهورية اإلسالمية ‪ ،‬وبالرغم من ذلك فإن الثورة‬ ‫تحول كبير في العالقة بين الشيعة والدولة السعودية في المنطقة الشرقية‪.‬‬ ‫اإليرانية قد تسببت في ّ‬ ‫عقب الثورة اإلسالمية‪ ،‬حاولت إيران بسط نفوذها الشيعي على السعودية‪ ،‬ففي عام ‪ 1981‬أنشأ فيلق الحرس الثوري اإلسالمي مكتب‬ ‫حركات التحرر‪ ،‬الذي يهدف إلى دعم الجماعات الثورية في منطقة الخليج‪ ،‬إال أنه دائما ً ما ينكر شيعة السعودية عالقتهم بإيران‪.‬‬ ‫سعى شيعة السعودية إلى المشاركة في الحياة السياسية ورحبت المملكة بتلك المبادرات إال أنها تنتهي بالفشل؛ بسبب وجود أطراف من الجانبين‬ ‫رافضين سياسة المشاركة اإلصالحية‪ ,‬ظهرت األزمة الشيعية في السعودية على الرغم من وجودها منذ زمن بعيد بعد قيام الثورات العربية‪ ،‬ففي‬ ‫عام ‪ 2011‬مع موجة الربيع العربي‪ ،‬اندلعت االحتجاجات الشيعية في السعودية أشعل فتيلها الشباب‪ ،‬ووصفوها بأنها “ثورة حنين”‪ ،‬في هذه‬ ‫األثناء اندمجت مجموعات شبابية متباينة أطلق عليها “ائتالف الشباب األحرار”‪ ،‬أصدر االئتالف مجموعة من المطالب تتألف من ‪ 24‬مطلبًا‪،‬‬ ‫منها المطالبة بحكم قائم على مشاركة حقيقية‪ ،‬واإلفراج عن السجناء السياسيين‪ ،‬وصياغة دستور للبالد‪ ،‬وعدّة مطالب أخرى‪.‬‬ ‫تعامل النظام مع هذه االحتجاجات بالعنف تارة‪ ،‬ومحاولة احتوائها تارة أخرى‪ ،‬فقام بتوزيع اإلعانات االقتصادية‪ ،‬ودفع رجال الدين الشيعة إلى‬ ‫صل النظام السعودي إلى عدة نتائج منها اإلفراج عن جميع‬ ‫كبح االحتجاجات‪ ،‬وتنفيذ حملة من االعتقاالت ضد النشطاء‪ ،‬وفي عام ‪ 2012‬تو ّ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫السجناء السياسيين‪ ،‬ووضع حد لعمليات االعتقال التعسّفي‪ ،‬واالعتراف بالقوانين الشرعية للشيعة الجعفرية‪ ،‬ومنح الشيعة تمثيال في هيئة كبار‬ ‫العلماء‪ ،‬وغيرها من النتائج التي استطاع بها النظام السعودي احتواء األزمة‪ ،‬واستطاعت بالفعل إفشال االحتجاجات إال أنها لم تحد من أزمة‬ ‫الشيعة في السعودية‪.‬‬ ‫إن العالقات السعودية اإليرانية عالقات تتسم باالضطراب وعدم االستقرار بين االتهامات والقلق ولكن يبقى وضع توجيه االتهامات إليران على‬ ‫ما هو عليه في العديد من الصراعات التي تشهدها المنطقة‪23.‬‬

‫اإلمارات‪:‬‬ ‫بعد انتصار الثورة اإلسالمية في إيران واإلطاحة بالنظام الملكي اتسم الموقف اإلماراتي‪ -‬كغيره من مواقف دول الخليج العربية‪ -‬بالقلق‬ ‫وخاصة إزاء مسألة ما سمي بتصدير الثورة‪.‬‬ ‫المحدد الرئيس للعالقات السياسية بين اإلمارات وإيران يرتبط بمسألة الجزر الثالث وهي طنب الكبرى وطنب الصغرى وأبو موسى‪ ،‬التي‬ ‫سيطرت عليها إيران بعد جالء القوات البريطانية من الخليج عام ‪ .1971‬وتكمن في الجزر أهمية استراتيجية حيث يقعن على مدخل الخليج‬ ‫العربي مما يمكن المسيطر على الجزر من السيطرة على مضيق هرمز‪ ،‬إضافة إلى توفر كميات كبيرة من النفط الخام وأكسيد الحديد وكونها‬ ‫‪ 21‬العالقات اإليرانية السعودية في ضوء الملفات الساخنة بالمنطقة‪ ,‬محجوب الزويري‪ ,‬مايو ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://studies.aljazeera.net/reports/2012/05/20125983013255262.htm‬‬ ‫‪ 22‬المركز العربي لألبحاث ودراسة السياسات‪ ,‬عالقات إيران مع دول المشرق العربي ودول الخليج‪ ,‬دول الخليج وإيران‪ ,‬طالل عتريسي‪ ,‬يناير‪2011‬م‪،‬‬ ‫‪http://www.dohainstitute.org/release/ea9a44bd-a864-4f4d-9010-b2f2ebd09b4c#r4‬‬ ‫‪ 23‬قصة الشيعة في السعودية ما بين اضطهاد النظام الحاكم واتهامات الوالء إليران‪ ,‬ساسة بوست‪ ,‬نوفمبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.sasapost.com/shiia_in_saudi_arabia‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬

‫التيار المحافظ‪ :‬أحزاب ومنظمات تلتزم حرفيا ً بالثوابت التي جاء بها النظام اإلسالمي‪ ,‬يرفض االنفتاح الثقافي أو استيراد القيم الغربية‪ ,‬ويدافع‬ ‫عن تدخل الدولة في االقتصاد‪ ,‬واألهم أنه يرى أنه ال دور للشعب في اختيار المرشد الذي – في رؤيته – ال يعد مسؤوال أمام الشعب مثل‪ :‬أنصار‬ ‫تعمير إيران اإلسالمية‪ ,‬وتنظيم حزب هللا‪ ,‬والجمعية اإلسالمية للمهندسين – المنشقة عن حركة حرية إيران‪19 18.‬‬

‫المعارضة اإليرانية‬ ‫تنطبق المعارضة على األحزاب والقوى التي ترفض نظام الجمهورية اإلسالمية من أساسه وتسعى عبر وسائل شرعية وغير شرعية‬ ‫إلى القضاء على النظام واستبدال به نظاما آخر‪ ،‬وهذا النوع من المعارضة ينقسم إلى أحزاب تنتهج أساليب سلمية وأحزاب مسلحة‪.‬‬ ‫أوالً‪ .‬حركة حرية إيران والتي تمثل المعارضة السلمية‪ ,‬تكونت الحركة عام ‪ 1961‬بعد انشقاق عن الجبهة الوطنية التي كان يرأسها محمد مصدق‬ ‫رئيس الوزراء السابق‪ .‬وتزعمها آنذاك "مهدي بازركان وأبو الحسن بني الصدر"‪ ,‬أيدت الحركة دور الخميني في إنجاح الثورة اإلسالمية ولكنها‬ ‫اختلفت معه في عدة قضايا أهمها طبيعة النظام الجديد بعد الثورة‪ ,‬ووالية الفقيه‪.‬‬ ‫ثانيا‪ .‬حركة مجاهدي خلق التي تمثل المعارضة المسلحة‪ ,‬تأسست عام ‪ 1965‬بعد انشقاقها عن حركة حرية إيران‪ ،‬شاركت في الثورة ضد الشاه‬ ‫و لكن بعد الثورة اختلفت الحركة مع رجال الدين الذين سيطروا على الحكم‪ ,‬ومن هنا تحولت من حليف إلى خصم‪ ،‬وبدأت في نقل نشاطها إلى‬ ‫خارج إيران وتنفذ الحركة عمليات ضد قيادات النظام الجديد‪ ،‬وكان قد أتاح الرئيس العراقي السابق صدام حسين مقرا للحركة في العراق نوعا‬ ‫من أنو اع الضغط على إيران‪ ,‬ونتيجة للعالقات الجيدة بين إيران وحكومة المالكي العراقية أعلن في ‪ 2007‬عدم ترحيبه بالحركة في بالده‬ ‫واقتحمت قوات عراقية مقر الحركة في معسكر أشرف في ‪ ,2009‬ولكن بتدخل الواليات المتحدة تم التوصل لنقل الحركة إلى معسكر "ليبرتي"‬ ‫بالقرب من العاص مة العراقية بغداد‪ ،‬ثم وضعت الخارجية األمريكية الحركة ضمن قائمة المنظمات الراعية لإلرهاب لكنها قررت عام ‪2012‬‬ ‫شطب مجاهدي خلق من الالئحة األمر الذي نددت به إيران‪20.‬‬

‫خامساً‪ :‬العالقات الخارجية لدولة إيران اإلسالمية‬ ‫العالقات اإليرانية بدول الخليج‬ ‫السعودية‪:‬‬ ‫"حرب باردة" ذلك المصطلح الذى يطلق على العالقات بين إيران ودول الخليج عموما ً والسعودية خصوصاً‪ ،‬وبالرغم من أن العالقات‬ ‫بين البلدين بدأت منذ العام ‪ 1928‬فإن قيام الثورة اإلسالمية اإليرانية في العام ‪ 1979‬شكل واقعا ً جديدا ً فى بنية تلك العالقات‪ .‬فعند الحديث عن‬ ‫العالقا ت اإليرانية السعودية يختلط دائما ما هو سياسي بما هو ديني‪ ،‬فلقد تطورت العالقات بين الرياض وطهران خالل الفترة التي تلت قيام‬ ‫الجمهورية اإلسالمية في ظل تأثير ثالث من القوى السياسية اإليرانية التي تركت أثرها على تطور العالقات‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -1‬المؤسسة الدينية التي تبدو متأثرة بالخالف مع الحركة الوهابية‬ ‫‪ -2‬التنافس على القيادة والصدارة في العالم اإلسالمي‬ ‫‪ -3‬القوة العسكرية واألمنية‪ ،‬والتي يرتبط تقييمها في العادة بالتحالفات األمريكية في المنطقة والدول التي تتحالف مع واشنطن‪.‬‬ ‫أوالً‪ :‬الملف المذهبى الذي له جذوره التاريخية والتي تعود إلى االنتقادات المتبادلة بين الشيعة والحركة الوهابية‪ ،‬فالحرب العراقية اإليرانية‬ ‫والموقف من الشيعة في المنطقة ابتدا ًء من لبنان ودعم إيران لحزب هللا مرورا بالحضور المذهبي والسياسي في العراق ما بعد العام ‪2003‬‬ ‫وحول دعم حكومة عالوي أو دعم المالكي‪ ,‬وباألساس حول النفوذ اإليراني عموما ً في العراق ‪ ،‬وانتها ًء بموقف إيران من تطورات التحركات‬ ‫في البحرين وسوريا في سياق الربيع العربي‪.‬‬

‫‪ 18‬النظام السياسي في إيران‬ ‫‪http://www.syriasc.net/%D8%A5%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%B2/222-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A‬‬‫‪%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬ ‫‪ 19‬كتاب "إيران جمهورية إسالمية أم سلطنة خمينية؟" إصدار مكتبة األسرة ‪ ,2010‬ص ‪176-155‬‬ ‫‪ 20‬كتاب "إيران جمهورية إسالمية أم سلطنة خمينية؟" إصدار مكتبة األسرة ‪ ,2010‬ص‪178-176.‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬

‫يقدر عدد القوات المسلحة اإليرانية بـ ‪ 523‬ألف جندي (المعهد الدولي للدراسات اإلستراتيجية ‪ )2013‬بين قوات برية (‪ 350‬ألفاً) وجوية (‪30‬‬ ‫ألفاً) وبحرية (‪ 18‬ألفاً) والقوات شبه العسكرية (‪ 40‬ألفاً)‪14.‬‬ ‫الحرس الثوري يرسخ الدستور اإليراني وجود جهتين تتوليان العمل العسكري المسلح هما الحرس الثوري "قوات الباسدران"‪ ،‬فمهمة‬ ‫الجيش تقترب إلى مفهوم حماية الدولة‪ ,‬بينما تتزايد مهام الحرس الثوري لتشمل حماية الثورة والدولة في الداخل والخارج‪ ،‬ظهر الحرس الثوري‬ ‫في مايو ‪ 1979‬بعد انتصار الثورة اإلسالمية بمرسوم من قائدها الخميني‪ ,‬ووضع تحت إمرة المرشد مباشرة‪ ،‬وكان الهدف من إنشائه جمع‬ ‫القوات العسكرية المختلفة التي نشأت بعد الثورة في بنية واحدة موالية للنظام لحمايته‪ ،‬وإقامة توازن مع الجيش التقليدي الذي لم يشارك في الثورة‬ ‫وظل بعض ضباطه أوفياء لحكم الشاه‪.‬‬ ‫يقدر عدد أفراد الحرس الثوري بـ ‪ 125‬ألف عنصر‪ ,‬ويعد الحرس الثوري مؤسسة متكاملة تتعدد مسؤولياته في الدفاع عن الدولة والثورة‬ ‫ضد "أعداء الداخل والخارج" ويعد القوة المهيمنة في إيران‪ ,‬وهو وراء العديد من العمليات العسكرية الرئيسة في البالد‪ .‬ويتمتع بنفوذ كبير داخل‬ ‫أجهزة الدولة على الصعيدين االقتصادي حيث ينخرط في العديد من المشاريع التي تقدر بمليارات الدوالرات في مجاالت النفط والغاز والبنية‬ ‫مواز يملك‬ ‫التحتية‪ .‬وكذلك الصعيد السياسي‪ ,‬إذ وصل أحد أعضائه وهو " أحمدي نجاد" إلى رئاسة الجمهورية‪ .‬وينظر إليهم على أنهم جيش‬ ‫ٍ‬ ‫سالحي طيران والبحرية الخاصين به‪ ،‬وشبكة كاملة من األسلحة والصواريخ خاصة الصواريخ متوسطة وبعيدة المدى‪16,15.‬‬ ‫فيلق القدس يعد من أبرز أذرع الحرس الثوري اإليراني‪ ,‬يترأسه العميد قاسم سليماني منذ إنشائه ‪ .1998‬يقوم الفيلق بالتعاون مع هيئات‬ ‫أخرى إيرانية بتنفيذ عمليات سرية خارج حدود إيران بواسطة "الوحدة ‪ ,"400‬وهي وحدة العمليات الخاصة األكثر تدريبا وتجهيزاً‪ ,‬والموكلة‬ ‫بتنفيذ العمليات ضد معارضي النظام اإليراني‪ ,‬وكل العمليات الخارجية التي تحدد لها من قبل الحرس الثوري ومكتب المرشد‪ ,‬مثل المساعدات‬ ‫المتنوعة والواسعة للنظام السوري كنقل الوسائل القتالية والمعونات المالية‪ ،‬كما تتولى هذه الوحدة مهمة إنشاء الخاليا االستخبارية في العالم‪,‬‬ ‫وتصدير قيم الثورة‪ .‬وفقا ً لتقرير شبكة )‪ )sky news‬في إبريل ‪ ,2012‬فإن الوحدة ‪ 400‬مسئولة عن سلسلة عمليات تفجير استهدفت مصالح‬ ‫إسرائيلية وأميركية حول العالم أُح ِبط معظمها‪ ،‬ويقدر تعداد الوحدة بـ ‪ 1500‬عنصر ويترأسها الجنرال "حامد عبد اإلله"‪.‬‬ ‫يشمل فيلق القدس كتائب تعمل ضمن م جاالت محددة وهي مسؤولة عن مناطق تخصص جغرافية محددة مثل كتيبة لبنان‪ ,‬كتيبة العراق‪ ,‬وكتيبة‬ ‫األنصار التي تمارس عملها في أفغانستان وغيرها‪ ،‬ويعين المرشد ممثال له في فيلق القدس وهو اآلن "حجة اإلسالم علي شيرازي"‪ ,‬فضالً عن‬ ‫ممثل للمرشد في الحرس الثوري وهو حاليا ً " آية هللا علي سعيدي"‪17.‬‬ ‫األحزاب السياسية تنقسم التيارات السياسية في إيران إلى تيارين رئيسين أولهما‪ :‬التيار اإلصالحي ‪ ,‬وثانيهما‪ :‬التيار المحافظ‪.‬‬ ‫التيار اإلصالحي‪ :‬هو اتجاه التغيير الذي يقوده المعتدلون من داخل النظام‪ ,‬وهو ذو رؤى غير تصادمية مع الواقع المفروض من قبل المؤسسة‬ ‫السياسية الدينية‪ ,‬وفي الوقت نفسه يعد حركة تجديد لفكر الثورة اإليرانية مع االحتفاظ بإطارها العام وتقليل صالحيات المرشد األعلى وفرض‬ ‫قيود عليه وإعادة االعتبار للشعب‪ ,‬وهذا التيار يرى في استمرار حالة النظام الحالي مع التغيرات على الساحة العالمية والسياسية أكبر تهديد يمكن‬ ‫أن يواجه إيران مثل‪ :‬الحركة الخضراء التي تأسست احتجاجا ً على نتائج انتخابات ‪ 2009‬بفوز أحمدي نجاد ويقودها جبهة المشاركة اإلسالمية‬ ‫ومنظمة مجاهدي الثورة اللتان تم حظرهما عام ‪.2010‬‬

‫‪ 14‬جريدة إيالف‪ ,‬يونيو ‪ ,2013‬ا ف ب‬ ‫‪http://www.elaph.com/Web/news/2013/6/817367.html‬‬ ‫‪15‬لمحة عامة عن الحرس الثوري اإليراني‪ ,‬اكتوبر ‪2009‬‬ ‫‪http://www.bbc.co.uk/arabic/middleeast/2009/10/091018_dh_iranguard_profile_tc2.shtml‬‬ ‫‪ 16‬الحرس الثوري اإليراني‬ ‫‪http://www.aljazeera.net/news/reportsandinterviews/2013/5/27‬‬ ‫‪ 17‬النظام السياسي في إيران‪ ,‬مركز سورية للبحوث والدراسات‪ ,‬مؤسسات النظام وآليات الحكم والتفاعالت الداخلية‪2014 ,‬‬ ‫‪http://www.syriasc.net/%D8%A5%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%B2/222‬‬‫‪12‬‬

‫السكان‪ :‬تخطى عدد السكان فى إيران إلى ‪ 78‬مليون نسمة عام ‪ ,2014‬ووفقا ً لإلحصائية التي قدمتها دائرة اإلحصاء اإليرانية فإن‬ ‫إيران تقف في المرتبة ‪ 18‬عالميا ً من حيث عدد السكان والمرتبة العاشرة على مستوى آسيا‪.11‬‬

‫رابعاً‪ :‬النظام السياسي اإليراني‬ ‫مع نجاح الثورة اإلسالمية اإليرانية تغير شكل النظام السياسي بتحول إيران من النظام الملكي إلى جمهورية إيران اإلسالمية‪ .‬كان الدستور‬ ‫أول وثيقة رسمية معلنة صدرت من جانب النظام حول شكل الحكم في ‪ ,1979‬وصاغه كبار فقهاء النظام ومجلس الخبراء‪.‬‬

‫مؤسسات النظام السياسي اإليراني‪:‬‬ ‫الولي الفقيه (اإلمام‪ /‬المرشد) يقر الدستور السلطات التي تحكم إيران على أنها السلطة التنفيذية والتشريعية والقضائية‪ ,‬التي تمارس‬ ‫صالحيتها بإشراف"اإلمام أو الولي الفقيه"‪ ,‬ويعد اإلمام القائد العام للقوات المسلحة اإليرانية‪ ،‬ومن صالحيات الولي الفقيه تعيين القيادات العليا‬ ‫للجيش‪ ,‬ووضع السياسات العامة لجمهورية إيران اإلسالمية‪ ,‬إعالن الحرب والسالم والنفير العام‪ ,‬وتعيين وعزل فقهاء مجلس صيانة الدستور‪,‬‬ ‫وأعلى مسؤول في السلطة القضائية‪ ,‬وهو رئيس مؤسسة اإلذاعة والتلفزيون في إيران‪ ,‬وعزل رئيس الجمهورية المنتخب إذا صدر حكم من‬ ‫القضاء أو مجلس الشورى اإلسالمي‪ ،‬وتولي منصب اإلمام بعد الخميني " علي خامنئي" منذ عام ‪.1989‬‬ ‫مجلس الخبراء يتولى اختيار"ا لولي الفقيه"‪ ,‬ويحق للمجلس خلع المرشد األعلى "اإلمام" إذا أثبت عجزه عن أداء واجباته أو فقد مؤهال‬ ‫من مؤهالته‪ .‬كما ال يجوز للبرلمان إجراء أي نوع من التعديالت الدستورية قبل توصية من مجلس الخبراء‪.‬‬ ‫مجلس صيانة الدستور يشرف المجلس على االنتخابات في إيران سواء كانت محلية أم تشريعية أم رئاسية‪ ،‬ويحق للمجلس تفسير الدستور‬ ‫وتحديد مدى توافق قوانين البرلمان مع الدستور والشريعة‪ ،‬كما يشرف على أهلية مرشحي مجلس الخبراء‪ ،‬ويتكون المجلس من ‪ 12‬عضوا‪6 ,‬‬ ‫أعضاء يختارهم المرشد‪ ,‬و‪ 6‬أعضاء يرشحهم رئيس السلطة القضائية ويصدق عليهم مجلس الشورى اإلسالمي‪.‬‬ ‫رئيس الجمهورية يتولي رئيس الجمهورية والحكومة السلطة التنفيذية‪ ,‬ويمارس الرئيس صالحياته باستثناء الصالحيات المخصصة‬ ‫للقائد مباشرة بموجب الدستور‪ ,‬وينتخب الرئيس مدة ‪ 4‬سنوات من قبل الشعب‪ ,‬وال يحق انتخابه ألكثر من واليتين‪.‬‬ ‫مجلس الشورى اإلسالمي (البرلمان) يمنح مجلس الشورى الثقة لمجلس الوزراء وله حق استجواب الرئيس والوزراء‪ .‬يصدق البرلمان‬ ‫على عمليات االقتراض واإلقراض أو منح المساعدات داخل أو خارج البالد‪ ،‬ولمجلس صيانة الدستور رقابة على البرلمان‪ ,‬فال مشروعية‬ ‫للبرلمان دون وجود مجلس صيانة الدستور‪ ,‬كما يجب على مجلس الشورى اإلسالمي إرسال جميع ما يصدق عليه إلى مجلس صيانة الدستور‪.‬‬ ‫السلطة القضائية يعين المرشد شخصا عادالً ومطلعا ً على األمور القضائية رئيسا ً للسلطة القضائية وأعلى رئيس بها مدة ‪ 5‬سنوات‪12.‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬

‫الجيش اإليراني‬ ‫صنف الجيش اإليراني في المرتبة الـ‪ 22‬بين جيوش العالم‪ ،‬فقد ورثت الجمهورية اإلسالمية عن نظام الشاه جيشا ً قويا ً وحديثاً‪ .‬يدافع‬ ‫الجيش عن استقالل الدولة و نظام الجمهورية اإلسالمية فيها‪ ,‬والمرشد هو القائد العام للقوات المسلحة اإليرانية‪.‬‬

‫‪ 11‬سكان إيران إزدادوا نصف مليون خالل ‪ 6‬أشهر‪ ,‬صالح حميد‪ ,‬اكتوبر ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://www.alarabiya.net/ar/iran/2014/10/02/%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬‫‪%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A5%D8%B2%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%A7‬‬‫‪%D9%86%D8%B5%D9%81-%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84-6‬‬‫‪%D8%A3%D8%B4%D9%87%D8%B1.html‬‬ ‫‪ 12‬النظام السياسي في إيران‪ ,‬مركز سورية للبحوث والدراسات‪ ,‬مؤسسات النظام وآليات الحكم والتفاعالت الداخلية‪2014 ,‬‬ ‫‪http://www.syriasc.net/%D8%A5%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%B2/222-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A‬‬‫‪%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86‬‬ ‫‪13‬الدستور‬ ‫‪http://www.mfa.gov.ir/index.aspx?siteid=2&pageid=142‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬

‫على حين تأتي حدود إيران الغربية مع العراق والتداخل المذهبي مع الشيعة واألكراد والتورط األمريكي في المستنقع العراقي يجعل إيران في‬ ‫قلب هذا الصراع‪4.‬‬ ‫بحرياً‪ :‬أوالً بحر قزوين يقع شماال وتشاركها فيه دول أخرى ككازاخستان من الشمال والشرق‪ ,‬وأذربيجان من الغرب وغيرهم؛ إذ يحتوي بحر‬ ‫قزوين علي ثالث أكبر احتياطي عالمي من النفط والغاز الطبيعي‪ ,‬بما في ذلك ثلث احتياطي النفط في منطقة الشرق األوسط‪ ,‬كما يحتل المرتبة‬ ‫الرابعة بعد روسيا وإيران وقطر بحجم احتياطه من الغاز الطبيعي‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن هناك مشكلة حقوقية يثيرها عدم توصل الدول المتشاطئة إلى حل لتقسيم بحر قزوين فيما بينها‪ ,‬حيث ترغب إيران في التوصل إلى‬ ‫اتفاق يسمح باستغالل سطح البحر والثروات الكامنة في أعماقه‪ ،‬ولكن هناك مفارقة قانونية منذ عام ‪ 1992‬تمنع دول حوضه من التوصل إلى‬ ‫اتفاق‪ ,‬وهي بما أن قزوين بحيرة مغلقة فإنه ال يخضع للقوانين الدولية المتعلقة بتقاسم البحار‪ ,‬وبالمقابل تتوفر فيه كل مميزات البحار سواء من‬ ‫ناحية العمق أم المساحة أم الثروات‪ ،‬فال يمكن اعتباره قانونيًّا "بحيرة مغلقة"‪.5‬‬ ‫ثانيا ً الخليج العربي (الخليج الفارسي)‪ :‬تطل إيران على الخليج العربي (الخليج الفارسي) جنوبا ً الذي يحتوي على أكبر احتياطي نفط في العالم‪,‬‬ ‫ويعد "بحرالعرب" و"خليج عمان" مكملين للخليج العربي في أهمية الموقع وإستراتيجيته‪ ،‬وبالرغم من وقوع عدد من المدن التجارية والموانئ‬ ‫على شواطئ الخليج فإن "جزيرتي طنب وأبوموسي" يتمتعان بمميزات إستراتيجية جعلت احتواءهما والسيطرة عليهما هدفًا تسعى إليه قوى‬ ‫عديدة في طليعتها إيران‪ ،‬التي سيطرت على الجزر الثالثة عام ‪ ,1971‬ففي هذا العام وقبل إعالن قيام دولة اإلمارات العربية المتحدة بوصفها‬ ‫اتحادا يضم عدة إمارات‪ ،‬سيطرت إيران على جزيرتي طنب الكبرى والصغرى التابعتين إلمارة رأس الخيمة‪ ،‬وكذلك سيطرت على جزيرة أبو‬ ‫موسي التابعة إلمارة الشارقة‪ ،‬وال تزال المطالبات مستمرة من جانب الدول العربية بالضغط على إيران لرفع سيطرتها من الجزر الثالثة وعودتها‬ ‫إلى دولة اإلمارات‪ ،‬وتنبع األهمية الكبرى ل لخليج العربي ومن ضمنه الجزر الثالثة كونه يتحكم في تصدير البترول من مناطق إنتاجه في الدول‬ ‫المطلة عليه إلى الدول المستوردة في أوربا وأمريكا واليابان‪.7 ,6‬‬ ‫مضيق هرمز‪ :‬جنوبا ً والذي يعد من أهم عشرة مضائق على مستوى العالم‪ ،‬وتعبره ناقالت النفط الخليجي إلى معظم دول العالم إذ تشرف إيران‬ ‫على أكبر مساحة من المضيق وتستخدمه ورقة ضغط على الدول الكبرى في حال تعرضها لعقوبات اقتصادية أو في حال تهديدها بالحرب أو‬ ‫تهديد أي من منشآتها النووية‪ ,‬مما تتطلب من المنطقة التأهب ألي طارئ في حال أُغلقت السلطات اإليرانية مضيق هرمز‪ ،‬وقد حاولت إيران في‬ ‫سابقتين أن تشرف على المضيق‪ ,‬إال أن طلبها رفض كلياً‪ ,‬حتى اعتماد االتفاقية الدولية لقانون البحار‪ ,1982‬من جهة الدول المطلة على هرمز‬ ‫وأهم مواد تلك االتفاقية "تتمتع جميع السفن العابرة للمضايق الدولية‪ ,‬بما فيها مضيق هرمز بحق المرور دون أي عراقيل‪ ,‬سواء كانت هذه السفن‬ ‫ناقالت تجارية أم عسكرية"‪8.‬‬ ‫اقتصادياً‪ :‬إيران هي ثاني أكبر اقتصاد في الشرق األوسط وشمال إفريقيا بعد الممكلة العربية السعودية حيث يقدر الناتج المحلي بين عامي‬ ‫‪ 2014-2013‬ب‪ 366‬بليون دوالر‪ ,‬تحتل إيران المرتبة الثانية عالميا ً من احتياطات الغاز الطبيعي والرابع من احتياطات النفط الخام‪9.‬‬ ‫وعلى مستوى دول العالم تعد إيران من أغنى الدول من حيث احتياطي المعادن‪ ,‬إذ تملك ‪ %10‬من احتياطي النفط‪ ,‬و‪ %15‬من احتياطي الغاز‬ ‫العالمي‪ ,‬وهي همزة وصل بين آسيا وأوروبا‪ ,‬وتتمتع بشبكات خدماتية وإنتاجية واسعة وطاقات بشرية مدربة‪ ,‬وتعتبر إيران شريكا ً اقتصاديا ً‬ ‫وتجاريا ً فحرصها على التعاون اإلقليمي وسعيها لتحقيق السالم واألمن في المنطقة والعالم يعزز مكانتها اإلقليمية والدولية‪10.‬‬ ‫‪ 4‬إيران من منظور الجغرافيا السياسية‬ ‫‪http://www.albainah.net/Index.aspx?function=Printable&id=16760&lang‬‬ ‫‪ 5‬إيران وبحر قزوين‪ :‬معادلة للصراع وتقسيم النفوذ‪.‬‬ ‫‪http://studies.aljazeera.net/reports/2013/01/2013131113627251370.htm‬‬ ‫‪ 6‬استراتيجية الجزر الثالث بالخليج العربي‬ ‫‪http://www.alemarati.net/icland/astratgec.htm‬‬ ‫‪ 7‬احتالل إيران للجزر االماراتية‬ ‫‪http://studies.aljazeera.net/reports/2013/01/2013131113627251370.htm‬‬ ‫‪ 8‬مضيق هرمز‪ ...‬األهمية االستراتيجية والبدائل‬ ‫‪http://www.ktuf.org/alamel/%D9%85%D8%B6%D9%8A%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%87%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%8A%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%A9‬‬‫‪%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%84-1473‬‬ ‫‪Iran Overview, The worldbank, September 2014 9‬‬ ‫‪http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview‬‬ ‫‪ 10‬الثورة اإلسالمية ودور إيران في السياسة العالمية‬ ‫‪http://pukmedia.com/AR_Direje.aspx?Jimare=28897‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫وقد ظهرت شخصية الخميني ألول مرة عام ‪ 1963‬لقيادة المعارضة ضد نظام الشاه باإلضافة لفطنة "آيه هللا الخميني" في كسب التأييد‬ ‫الشعبي‪ ,‬وتجنبه قضايا مثل "والية الفقيه" ‪ -‬التي كان ينوي تنفيذها – لمعرفته أنها لن تقبلها بعض الفئات‪.‬‬ ‫وفي عام ‪ 1978‬كانت الجماعات اإلسالمية أول من نجح في حشد المتظاهرين‪ ,‬وفي ‪ 12‬ديسمبر خرج حوالي مليوني شخص في ساحة أزادي‬ ‫(شاهياد) مطالبين برحيل الشاه وعودة الخميني‪ ،‬فغادر الشاه "محمد رضا بهلوي" إيران عام ‪ ,1979‬بناء على طلب رئيس وزرائه آنذاك "شهبور‬ ‫بختيار"‪ -‬والذي كان لفترات طويلة زعيم المعارضة ضد الشاه ‪ -‬عينه الشاه الحتواء الثورة اإلسالمية‪ ,‬وأثناء توليه سعى إلسقاط رموز ساللة‬ ‫بهلوي وأعلن حل جهاز "السافاك"‪ ,‬واإلفراج عن المعتقلين السياسيين‪.‬‬ ‫س ِمح بعودة الخميني من منفاه لطهران وسط ماليين المؤيدين‪ ،‬وأصبح بالنسبة لبعضهم "شخص مقدس"‪ ،‬فألقى خطبةً‬ ‫وفي عام ‪ُ 1979‬‬ ‫في اليوم نفسه‪ ،‬وأوضح رفضه لحكومة شهبور بختيار وأعلن تعيين "مهدي باذرخان" رئيسا ً للحكومة مؤقتاً‪ ,‬واعتبرها حكومة هللا وأي عصيان‬ ‫لها فهو عصيان هلل‪ ،‬ثم أعلن قيام الجمهورية اإليرانية اإلسالمية في العام نفسه‪ ,‬وتغير شكل النظام السياسي اإليراني‪ ،‬وعين عام ‪" 1980‬أبو‬ ‫سا للجمهورية على أن تظل اليد العليا في الدولة للخميني الزعيم الروحي‪.2‬‬ ‫الحسن بني الصدر" رئي ً‬

‫نتائج الثورة اإلسالمية اإليرانية‪:‬‬ ‫حققت الثورة اإلسالمية في إيران العديد من المنجزات على الصعيدين االقتصادي والسياسي‪ ،‬ففي الصعيد االقتصادي‪ :‬الحفاظ على موارد الثروة‬ ‫مثل النفط‪ ,‬االهتمام بالقرى وتوفير اإلمكانات المعيشية فيها‪ ،‬ودعم البنى التحتية للتنمية وإعداد الكوادر المتخصصة في المجاالت المختلفة‪،‬‬ ‫وتطوير طرق إنتاج الطاقة وبناء السدود‪ ،‬وتطوير شبكة الطرق والمواصالت والموانئ‪ ،‬وإشاعة مراكز التعليم في مستويات متعددة‪ ،‬والوصول‬ ‫إلى مرحلة االكتفاء الذاتي في التصنيع العسكري وفي مجاالت اقتصادية أخرى على الرغم من وجود بعض الموانع والعقبات مثل المقاطعة‬ ‫االقتصادية وحرب الثمانية أعوام التي قامت بين نظام صدام في العراق والجمهورية اإلسالمية في إيران‪ ،‬حيث تسببت تلك الحرب في خسارة‬ ‫قُدرت بـ ‪ 100‬مليار دوالر‪.‬‬ ‫أما الصعيد السياسي فقد قامت السياسة الخارجية إليران على أساس األصول اإلسالمية‪ ،‬ومبدأ ال شرقية ال غربية؛ إذ رفضت كل أنواع‬ ‫التسلط والهيمنة وحفظ استقالل البالد في جميع المجاالت ومد جسور العالقة مع الدول غير المعادية في العالم‪ ،‬وتأثرت بعض الدول في العالم‬ ‫مثل لبنان والعراق ودول حوض الخليج الفارسي وأفغانستان وباكستان وتونس وفلسطين ودول شمال أفريقيا بشكل مباشر بالثورة اإلسالمية‪،‬‬ ‫كما تأثرت دول أخرى في العالم بشكل غير مباشر بهذه الثورة مثل سوريا وجنوب إفريقيا‪.3‬‬

‫ثالثاً‪ :‬األهمية اإلستراتيجية إليران‬ ‫تقاس قوة األمم بمقاييس متعددة‪ ,‬والموارد الطبيعية والموقع اإلستراتيجي هما مقياسان لقوة إيران؛ إذ تمتد جمهورية إيران اإلسالمية على‬ ‫مساحة ‪ 1.75‬مليون كيلومتر مربع‪ ،‬والفارسية هي اللغة الرسمية‪ ،‬باالضافة إلى لغات ولهجات أخرى تستعملها أقليات كل منها تفوق المليون‬ ‫عددا‪ ،‬وتقع إيران بين نقاط أساسية‪:‬‬ ‫بريا‪ :‬شماالً‪ :‬تجاور إيران جمهوريات االتحاد السوفيتي السابق‪ ،‬خاصة تركمانستان وأذربيجان‪ ,‬مما جعلها ذات أهمية قصوى لروسيا أوالً‪،‬‬ ‫التي تعد هذه المنطقة امتدادا ً إستراتيجيا ً لجنوبها‪ ,‬وثانيا ً الواليات المتحدة األمريكية التي تريد احتواء روسيا وإقامة قواعد لها في هذه المنطقة‬ ‫لسهولة السيطرة على ثرواتها كما تحدها شماالً أرمنيا‪.‬‬ ‫جنوباً‪ :‬الخليج العربي وخليج عمان‪.‬‬ ‫شرقاً‪ :‬مع باكستان وأفغانستان‪ ،‬فهاتان الدولتان هما قلب منطقة الصراع المحتدم‪ ،‬منذ سيطرة طالبان على المنطقة ثم سقوطها‪ ,‬كما أن الصراع‬ ‫النووي الدائر بين الهند وباكستان يُدخل إيران في قلب هذه المعمعة‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2‬الثورة اإلسالمية ودور إيران في السياسة العالمية‪ ,‬فبراير ‪2014‬‬ ‫‪http://pukmedia.com/AR_Direje.aspx?Jimare=28897‬‬ ‫‪ 3‬فجر الثورة اإلسالمية في إيران‬ ‫‪http://arabic.irib.ir/Monasebat/Enghelab/Monjez.htm‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬

‫من الشاه إلى الجمهورية اإلسالمية (‪)1979 – 1925‬‬ ‫استولى العقيد "رضا خان بهلوي على منصب رئيس الوزراء وأجبر البرلمان اإليراني على انتخابه شاهًا إليران عام ‪ 1925‬ليصبح أول‬ ‫ملك للدولة البهلوية‪.‬‬ ‫وكان "رضا بهلوي" يتمتع بدعم قوي من قيادات الجيش‪ ,‬فَعَ ِمدَ إلى تنفيذ العديد من اإلصالحات الداخلية على الطريقة الكمالية – نسبة إلى كمال‬ ‫أتاتورك في تركيا ‪ -‬فأمر بتعديل بعض النظم اإلدارية واالقتصادية واتجه إلعادة بناء الجيش والتصنيع‪ ,‬كما ألغى نظام االمتيازات األجنبية‪,‬‬ ‫ووضع حدا لالقتراض من الدو ل األجنبية ومنع إصدار العملة اإليرانية من المصرف اإلمبراطوري الذي تملكه بريطانيا‪ ،‬وكذلك قام بعدد من‬ ‫اإلصالحات االجتماعية واستبدل بالقانون الديني‪ ،‬القوانينَ المدنيةَ والجنائية‪.‬‬ ‫أصدر "رضا شاه بهلوي" مرسوم ‪ ،1936‬الذي يقضي بمنع استخدام كلمة "فارس" في المعامالت الرسمية واستبدال بها اسم "إيران"؛ أي‪ :‬بالد‬ ‫اآلريين التي كان ينسب لها‪ ،‬ولقد كان صارما مع البرلمان‪ ،‬واستخدم الجيش إلخماد روح التمرد‪ ،‬فانعدمت حرية الصحافة وسادت روح‬ ‫الديكتاتورية في المجتمع اإليراني‪.‬‬ ‫أثناء الحرب العالمية الثانية رفض "رضا شاه بهلوي" االنضمام إ لى الحلفاء وهم دول "روسيا وبريطانيا والواليات المتحدة"‪ ,‬وفي المقابل زاد‬ ‫التقارب اإليراني األلماني وظفرت ألمانيا بالمركز األول في تجارة إيران الخارجية‪ ,‬مما أثار شعور روسيا وبريطانيا بضرورة االحتياط من هذا‬ ‫التقارب‪ ,‬وغزت القوات البريطانية السوفيتية إيران وقاموا بعزل "رضا بهلوي" ونفيه إلى جنوب أفريقيا ‪ ,1941‬وخلفه ابنه "محمد رضا شاه‬ ‫بهلوي"‪.‬‬ ‫وفي عام‪ 1951‬تم تعيين مؤسس وزعيم الجبهة الوطنية "محمد مصدق" رئيسا للوزراء لفترتين متتاليتين‪ ,‬وكانت الجبهة الوطنية رافضة التعامل‬ ‫مع اإلنجليز‪ ،‬وداعية لتأميم البترول اإليراني‪ ,‬وبدأت الحركة من مدينة قُم بزعامة آية هللا أبي القاسم الكاشاني‪ ،‬عندما أطلق صيحته المشهورة‪:‬‬ ‫"أيها الكالب اإلنجليز اتركوا لنا بترولنا واخرجوا من بالدنا"‪.‬‬ ‫فقام مصدق فور توليه عام ‪ 1953‬الحكومة بتأميم البترول من السيطرة البريطانية‪ ,‬وأرغم الشاه "محمد رضا بهلوي" على مغادرة إيران‪ ,‬ولكن‬ ‫الشاه عاد مرة أخرى بعد انقالب مضاد؛ إذ تكتلت االستخبارات البريطانية واألمريكية للقيام بانقالب ضد حكومة مصدق‪.‬‬ ‫وفي ‪ 16‬يناير ‪ ,1979‬أُر ِغم الشاه "محمد رضا بهلوي" على مغادرة إيران للمرة الثانية‪ ،‬وهذه المرة كانت بغير رجعة‪ ،‬حيث جاء إلى مصر‬ ‫التي استضافته حتى مماته ‪1980‬؛ إثر اضطربات شعبية هائلة بقيادة آية هللا الخميني الذي عاد إلى إيران بعد ‪ 15‬عاما من النفي بفرنسا‪.‬‬ ‫الثورة اإلسالمية‪ :‬كانت الثورة اإلسالمية بقيادة الخميني ثورة فريدة من نوعها بوصفها مفاجأة على مسرح األحداث الدولية؛ إذ كان يعتقد بأن‬ ‫نظام الشاه محمي من الجيش واألجهزة األمنية‪.‬‬

‫أسباب الثورة اإلسالمية‪:‬‬ ‫‪.1‬‬

‫برنامج اإلصالحات الذي أعلنه الشاه "محمد رضا بهلوي" والمعروف باسم "الثورة البيضاء"‪ ,‬وكانت هذه اإلصالحات على النمط الغربي‬ ‫ومعتمدة على مدخوالت إيران النفطية‪ ،‬وشملت إعطاء حق االقتراع للنساء‪ ,‬وانتخاب ممثلين لألقليات الدينية في البرلمان‪ ,‬ووضع بنية‬ ‫تحتية للصناعة والزراعة وغيره‪.‬‬

‫‪.2‬‬

‫سياسة التغريب القوية التي انتهجها الشاه رغم أنها تعارض الثقافة الشعبية اإليرانية‪ ,‬والتي أدت إلى نفي الخميني في نوفمبر ‪ 1964‬وأرسل‬ ‫للمنفى حتى قيام الثورة ‪.1979‬‬

‫‪.3‬‬

‫عالقته الوطيدة بإسرائيل‪ ,‬واعتماده على القوى الغربية (الواليات المتحدة) التي أظهرت الشاه وكأنه دمية في يد أمريكا‪.‬‬

‫‪.4‬‬

‫إضافة إلى اإلسراف والفساد في سياسات الشاه وديوانه الملكي مع فشله في استقطاب القيادات الدينية الشيعية لصد الحملة الخمينية ضده‪,‬‬ ‫وسوء تقديره للمعارضة وقمعها عن طريق جهاز المخابرات "السافاك"‪ ،‬وركزت الحكومة على قمع مجاهدي حركة خلق وباقي المعارضة‬ ‫اليسارية‪ ,‬على حين انتظمت المعارضة الدينية األكثر شعبية حتى قودت نظام الشاه تدريجيا‪ ،‬كذلك تكريسه سياسة الحزب الواحد‪ ,‬ومنع‬ ‫تولي الكفاءات للحكومة حتى ضعفت‪.‬‬

‫‪.5‬‬

‫البرنامج االقتصادي الطموح عام ‪ 1974‬لم يواكب الطموحات التي أثارتها عائدات النفط‪ ،‬إضافة إلى تكريس سياسة احتكار الحزب‬ ‫الواحد‪ ،‬وتزايد حدة التضخم‪ ،‬ثم انتشار األسواق السوداء‪.‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫في العام ‪ 1797‬بعد مقتل "أغا محمد خان" تولى حكم دولة إيران ابن أخيه "فتح علي شاه" حتى عام ‪ ,1834‬الذي بدأ في عهده االتصال‬ ‫المباشر بين إيران والدول الغربية‪ ,‬فعقدت معاهدة تحالف بين إيران وفرنسا عام ‪ ،1807‬من أهم بنودها أن فرنسا تستطيع غزو الهند عن طريق‬ ‫البر‪ ,‬وفي المقابل يمد نا بليون الجيش اإليراني باألسلحة‪ ،‬ويرسل بعثة عسكرية لتدريب الجيش اإليراني لتتمكن األخيرة من مقاومة روسيا التي‬ ‫ضمت جورجيا ‪-‬التابعة للقاجاريين‪ -‬إلى أراضيها ‪.1801‬‬ ‫حكم "محمد شاه" حفيد "فتح علي شاه" من عام ‪ 1834‬حتى ‪ 1848‬وقد خاطبت روسيا ود إيران في عهده لتدعيم نفوذها على دول القوقاز‪ ,‬تاله‬ ‫" ناصر الدين شاه" وانماز عهده أيضا بالعالقات الودية مع روسيا باإلضافة إلى سيطرة إيران على مدينة هراة األفغانية مما أثار حفيظة بريطانيا‪،‬‬ ‫فأعلنت الحرب على إيران وعجزت روسيا عن مساعدة إيران فاضطر "ناصر الدين شاه" للتسليم‪.‬‬ ‫أبرمت معاهدة باريس عام ‪ 1858‬والتي بمقتضاها اعترفت إيران باستقالل أفغانستان‪ ,‬ومنحت المعاهدة امتيازات وحقوقا تجارية لبريطانيا في‬ ‫إيران‪ ،‬ومنذ ذلك الوقت اتخذ التنافس الروسي البريطاني على المسرح اإليراني صورة التدخل االقتصادي‪.‬‬ ‫وفي عام ‪ 1896‬قتل "ناصر الدين شاه" وتولى ابنه "مظفر الدين شاه" الذي انصرف إلى ملذاته وكلف الحكومة أمواال طائلة وسبب‬ ‫العجز للخزانة العامة مما جعل إيران تطلب قرضا من روسيا عام ‪ 1900‬يقدر بـ ‪ 22‬مليون روبل تقريبا‪.‬‬

‫الثورة الدستورية اإليرانية ‪1907‬‬ ‫أصبحت إيران في العهد القاجاري ساحة مكشوفة لكل من هب ودب؛ إذ تكالبت القوى االستعمارية عليها‪ ,‬ناهيك عن تفشي المظالم‬ ‫االجتماعية واألزمات االقتصادية والفتن الدينية؛ وقد فتحت السفارة األمريكية في طهران عام ‪ ,1882‬وظفرت ‪ 15‬دولة أخرى بحقوق وامتيازات‬ ‫لرعاياها المقيمين في طهران خالل الفترة ‪.1900 -1855‬‬ ‫وقد أدى عدم كفاءة الحك ومة وعجزها أمام الضغوط الخارجية والسيطرة األجنبية على االقتصاد اإليراني إلى انخفاض قيمة عملتها‪ ،‬وتعرضها‬ ‫عام ‪ 1871‬إلى أشد المجاعات فى تاريخها؛ إذ هلكت مئات الجياع وتنامى السخط العام والغضب الشعبي‪ ,‬ونشأت الحركات الدينية والليبرالية‬ ‫والوطنية المتعددة‪ ,‬والتقت هذه التيارات لتنفجر الثورة الدستورية في إيران بقيادة بعض علماء الدين والشباب الذين تأثروا باألفكار التحررية‬ ‫القادمة من الغرب‪ ،‬وكان من أهم نتائج الثورة الدستورية أن أعلن "مظفر الدين شاه" الدستور‪ ،‬وسرعان ما تكون أول برلمان تعهد بمعالجة‬ ‫الكثير من المشكالت العالقة‪.‬‬ ‫وما لبثت بريطانيا أن عقدت معاهدة مع روسيا عام ‪ 1907‬التي تسمى "المعاهدة األنجلو روسية"‪ ,‬واتفق الطرفان فيها على احترام سيادة‬ ‫إيران وتقسيم مناطق النفوذ فيها‪ ,‬فخضع القسم الشمالي للنفوذ الروسي‪ ,‬والقسم الجنوبي للنفوذ البريطاني‪ ,‬ثم مدت بريطانيا نفوذها إلى المنطقة‬ ‫الواقعة بين المنطقتين لتأمين الطريق إلى الهند‪.‬‬

‫من الحرب العالمية األولى إلى تأسيس الدولة البهلوية "رضا شاه بهلوي"‬ ‫عند قيام الحرب العالمية األولى ‪ 1914‬كان الحاكم آنذاك "أحمد شاه" الذي تولى في الفترة ‪ ,1925 -1909‬وكانت إيران أثناء الحرب‬ ‫العالمية األولى مرتعا لدول الحلفاء؛ إذ استولت روسيا على أجزاء من شمال إيران‪.‬‬ ‫وكذلك قاتل الروس والبريطانيون القوات العثمانية في إيران خالل الحرب العالمية‪ ,‬وتعالت صيحات الشعب اإليراني رافضة تحويل إيران إلى‬ ‫ساحة قتال كبيرة‪ ،‬وفي عام ‪ 1917‬استخدمت بريطانيا إيران في محاولة فاشلة لقلب الثورة البلشفية في روسيا والتي قضت على الحكم القيصري‬ ‫الروسي‪ ،‬وكان تغير نظام الحكم في روسيا سببا لتقليص المطامع الروسية في إيران‪.‬‬ ‫خرجت إيران من الحرب في حالة من الفوضي اإلدارية والخراب االقتصادي‪ ,‬وعقدت معاهدة عام ‪ ،1919‬وعدت فيها بريطانيا باحترام استقالل‬ ‫إيران‪ ،‬لكنها ظلت تحت الوصاية البريطانية ومدها بالخبراء العسكريين واألسلحة والقروض وإنشاء السكك الحديدية وإعادة النظر في االتفاقيات‬ ‫الجمركية‪ ,‬إال أن المعاهدة لم تطبق؛ بسبب الضغط الجماهيري المطالب باالستقالل التام‪ ,‬وقيل‪ :‬إن من أسباب زوال السلطة القاجارية‪ ،‬رفض"‬ ‫أحمد شاه" آخر ملوك القاجار لهذه المعاهدة‪ ،‬لذلك لم ينس اإلنجليز هذا الموقف له‪ ،‬وقرروا إيجاد بديل يستطيع حفظ مصالحهم والقضاء على‬ ‫المعارضة الداخلية‪ ,‬لذلك هيأوا للمجيء بالعسكري رضا خان بهلوي الذي كان وزيرا للدفاع‪ ،1‬ومن ثم سقطت الدولة القاجارية عام ‪ 1925‬ليبدأ‬ ‫عهد جديد هو "دولة الشاه"‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1‬نظرة خاطفة في أبرز أحداث العهد القاجاري‪ ,‬رياض سعد المذكوري‪ 7 ,‬أبريل ‪2012‬‬ ‫‪http://www.sutuur.com/all-articles/3753-riyad.html‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬

‫إيران ‪ .......‬مواجهة أم احتواء‬ ‫أوال‪ .‬تمهيد‪:‬‬ ‫"دول وسط وجنوب آسيا" هي مفتاح مهم يربط بين آسيا وأوروبا‪ ،‬فهي مدخل لموارد وثروات ال تقدر بثمن‪ ،‬كما وتؤدي دورا محوريًا‬ ‫فى استقرار منطقة تعاني من أزمات‪ ،‬وهي العراق‪ ،‬بل إنها دولة تُشارك في العديد من الصراعات من أجل ثرواتها ومواردها في منطقة الخليج‬ ‫العربي‪.‬‬ ‫ظلت جغرافية إيران وهويتها ثابتتين بشكل ملفت‪ ،‬حيث تحولت تلك الدولة التي كانت تابعة للوصاية الغربية إلى دولة ذات برنامج نووي‬ ‫يثير الذعر للكثيرين‪ ,‬وهي ليست مجرد دولة يمكن االستغناء عنها أو فرض نفوذ قوى خارجية عليها بسهولة‪ ،‬منذ الشاه وحتى اآلن‪ ،‬فهي دولة‬ ‫دائما ً ما تثير القلق والمخاوف لدى الكثير من القوى الغربية؛ فمواقفها من أزمات دول الجوار كسوريا والعراق‪ ،‬وأيضا ً صراعاتها المستمرة مع‬ ‫دول الخليج جعلت منها دولة قادرة على لفت األنظار إليها والتكهن بسياستها‪.‬‬ ‫صفت إيران بأن لها دورا محوريا في منطقة الشرق األوسط‪ ,‬وعداء طويال مع قوى خارجية‪ ,‬وإصرارا على تفعيل برنامجها النووي‬ ‫لقد ُو ِ‬ ‫ُ‬ ‫وتطويره‪ ,‬فهي دولة السهل الممتنع‪ ،‬فوصف إيران بالدولة التي تقيم عالقاتها مع الدول الخارجية على أساس مذهبي هو وصف لجزء من حقيقة‬ ‫عالقات إيران الخارجية؛ ألنها دولة ذات أهداف تسعى للبحث عن مكانتها في المنطقة‪ ،‬وهي ليست بضعيفة؛ والواليات المتحدة تدرك دورها‬ ‫الفعَّال وقدرتها على إقرار السالم في المنطقة‪.‬‬ ‫أ طلق عليها "إيران ‪ ..‬محور الشر" من قبل الدول التي كانت تضعها فى مكانة العدو قبل تغير السياسة اإليرانية وتولي حسن روحاني‬ ‫حكم البالد والتي أدت إلى تغيير إستراتيجيات الدول الغربية أمالً في استعادة نفوذها على إيران ومنها إلى دول الجوار‪.‬‬

‫رسم توضيحي ‪ 2.1‬خريطة جمهورية إيران اإلسالمية‬

‫ثانياً‪ :‬لمحة تاريخية عن جمهورية إيران اإلسالمية‬ ‫الدولة القاجارية‬ ‫مرت دولة إيران بالعديد من الممالك على مر التاريخ ال يقل إحداها أهمية عن األخرى في تشكيل الدولة اإليرانية‪ ,‬مثل الدولة األكمينية‬ ‫ودولة البارثيين والساسانية قبل اإلسالم‪ ,‬ثم دول كالطاهرية والسلجوقية والخوارزمية مرورا ً بالدولة الصفوية ‪ -‬نسبة إلى صفي الدين األردبيلي‪-‬‬ ‫التي أدت دورا ً كبيرا ً في تشكيل الدولة اإليرانية بشكلها الحالي؛ إذ أُعلن فيها المذهب الشيعي مذهبا ً رسميا ً للدولة‪ ,‬وسيطر الصفويون على العراق‬ ‫وخرسان وهمدان وكرمان وفارس‪ ,‬واستخدموا القوة إلدخال هذه البالد في المذهب الشيعي‪.‬‬ ‫ثم جاءت الدولة القاجارية ‪ 1795‬عندما سيطر قائد القاجاريين "أغا محمد خان" على طهران وجعلها عاصمة لدولته‪ ,‬كان القاجاريون‬ ‫إحدى القبائل التي ساعدت في قيام أول ملوك الدولة الصفوية‪ ,‬وضمت دولة القاجاريين أرمينيا وجورجيا وأذربيجان‪.‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬

‫‬‫‪-‬‬

‫الصين ‪46 ......................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫إيران ‪47- 47 .......................................................................................................................................‬‬

‫سابعاً‪ :‬العالقات الثنائية بين الواليات المتحدة و السودان ‪....................................................................................‬‬ ‫ تاريخ العالقات الثنائية ‪...................................................................................................................‬‬‫ العالقات الثنائية األمريكية السودانية فى مرحلة ما بعد اإلنقسام ‪..................................................................‬‬‫ موقف الواليات المتحدة من الصراعات السياسية بين الشمال و الجنوب ‪.......................................................‬‬‫ موقف الواليات المتحدة من التوغل الصينى اإليراني ‪..............................................................................‬‬‫ التعاون الثنائي لمواجهه الجماعات المتمردة والمليشيات ‪..........................................................................‬‬‫ التعاون العسكري و دور قوات التحالف الدولي المتواجدة فى السودان ‪........................................................‬‬‫‪ -‬التعاون اإلقتصادي و التبادل التجاري بين الواليات المتحدة و السودان ‪........................................................‬‬

‫‪51- 47‬‬ ‫‪48- 47‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪49 -48‬‬ ‫‪49‬‬ ‫‪50- 49‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪51‬‬

‫ثامناً‪ :‬جنوب السودان مرحلة ما بعد اإلنقسام ‪..................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ المشكالت النفطية و الحدودية مع الشمال السوداني "أزمة أبيي التاريخية" ومنطقة هجليج ‪.................................‬‬‫ صراعات داخلية و حروب أهلية ‪......................................................................................................‬‬‫‪ -‬أثر الجماعات المسلحة والمليشيات على جنوب السودان وموقف الواليات المتحدة منها ‪....................................‬‬

‫‪53 -51‬‬ ‫‪52- 51‬‬ ‫‪53- 52‬‬ ‫‪53‬‬

‫تاسعاً‪ :‬إقليم دارفور ‪..................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ تاريخ اإلقليم ‪...............................................................................................................................‬‬‫ األهمية اإلستراتيجية إلقليم دارفور ‪...................................................................................................‬‬‫ الصراعات و المذابح األهلية باإلقليم ‪..................................................................................................‬‬‫‪ -‬المساعدات األمريكية إلقليم دارفور و موقفها من إنهاء الحروب األهلية فى هذة المنطقة ‪...................................‬‬

‫‪55 -53‬‬ ‫‪53‬‬ ‫‪54- 53‬‬ ‫‪55- 54‬‬ ‫‪55‬‬

‫عاشراً‪ :‬حقوق اإلنسان و حرية الرأى و التعبير بالسودان ‪..................................................................................‬‬ ‫ انتهاك حقوق المرأة والطفل في السودان ‪.............................................................................................‬‬‫ حرية الرأي والتعبير ‪.....................................................................................................................‬‬‫‪ -‬حرية الصحافة واإلعالم ‪................................................................................................................‬‬

‫‪55‬‬ ‫‪55‬‬ ‫‪56‬‬ ‫‪56‬‬

‫الحادى عشر‪ :‬مستقبل العالقات الثنائية و خيارات الواليات المتحدة اإلستراتيجية ‪57 ......................................................‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‬‫‬‫‬‫‬‫‪-‬‬

‫تطور البرنامج النووى والعقوبات الخارجية إتجاه هذا التطور ‪...................................................................‬‬ ‫العقوبات الخارجية تجاه التطور اإليراني النووي ‪..................................................................................‬‬ ‫أثر التحول السياسى التى شهدتة الساحة اإليرانية و إتباع سياسة اإلحتواء ‪.....................................................‬‬ ‫مجموعة ‪ 1 +5‬بين العراقيل واالتفاقيات ‪............................................................................................‬‬ ‫االتفاق النووي اإليراني "اتفاق تاريخي بين ترقب التنفيذ ومخاوف الفشل" ‪...................................................‬‬

‫‪27‬‬ ‫‪28-27‬‬ ‫‪29-28‬‬ ‫‪30-29‬‬ ‫‪31-30‬‬

‫ثامناً‪ :‬إيران و سُبل مكافة اإلرهاب ‪...............................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ إيران وطالبان ‪............................................................................................................................‬‬‫ تنظيم القاعدة ‪..............................................................................................................................‬‬‫ الحوثيون واتهام إيران بأزمة اليمن ‪...................................................................................................‬‬‫‪ -‬داعش وإيران بين اإلتهام بالتمويل وقرار المواجهة ‪................................................................................‬‬

‫‪34 -31‬‬ ‫‪32-31‬‬ ‫‪32‬‬ ‫‪33-32‬‬ ‫‪34-33‬‬

‫تاسعاً‪ :‬حقوق االنسان و ملف الحريات و الديموقراطية ‪......................................................................................‬‬ ‫ حقوق المرأة و الطفل ‪....................................................................................................................‬‬‫ حقوق األقليات بإيران ‪...................................................................................................................‬‬‫‪ -‬حقوق التعبيير عن الرأى و حرية التظاهر و التجمع ‪...............................................................................‬‬

‫‪36- 34‬‬ ‫‪35-34‬‬ ‫‪36-35‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬

‫عاشراً‪ :‬مستقبل العالقات الثنائية و خيارات الواليات المتحدة اإلستراتيجية ‪37 ...............................................................‬‬ ‫السودان ‪ .....‬تحدي داخلي وصراع إستراتيجي‬ ‫اوال‪ :‬التمهيد ‪37 ..........................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ثانيا‪ :‬لمحة تاريخية عن الجمهورية السودانية ‪................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ السودان تحت الغزو التركي المصري ‪................................................................................................‬‬‫ الثورة المهدية على الحكم التركي المصري (‪.................................................................... )1898-1885‬‬‫ السودان تحت الحكم البريطاني المصري ‪1956-1898‬م ‪.........................................................................‬‬‫‪ -‬استقالل السودان ‪ 1956‬وبداية الحكم الوطنى ‪.......................................................................................‬‬

‫‪38-37‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬

‫ثالثاً‪ :‬األهمية اإلستراتيجية لجمهورية السودان ‪40-39 ...............................................................................................‬‬ ‫رابعا ً ‪ :‬تاريخ اإلنقسام السوداني ‪.................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ بداية ظهور مفهوم اإلنقسام ‪.............................................................................................................‬‬‫ مراحل اإلنقسام و الدعم الخارجي لترسيخ هذا المفهوم فى المنطقة ‪.............................................................‬‬‫ ما بعد االستقالل "الحرب األهلية السودانية األولى" ‪...............................................................................‬‬‫ الحرب االهلية الثانية ‪................................................................................................ 2005 - 1983‬‬‫‪ -‬استفتاء ‪ 2011‬و التاييد الشعبي لإلنفصال ‪............................................................................................‬‬

‫‪41- 40‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪41 – 40‬‬ ‫‪41‬‬ ‫‪41‬‬ ‫‪41‬‬

‫خامسا ً‪ :‬النظام السياسي السوداني ‪42-41 ................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫نظام الحكم بالسودان ما بعد االنفصال "النظام السياسي في الشمال و الجنوب" ‪42 ...........................................................‬‬ ‫ األحزاب السياسية ‪43 ........................................................................................................................‬‬‫سادسا ً‪ :‬العالقات الخارجية السودانية ‪47 -43 .............................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ مصر ‪44 -43 .......................................................................................................................................‬‬‫‪ -1‬دور السودان و موقفها من سد النهضة اإلثيوبى ‪.....................................................................................‬‬ ‫‪ -2‬موقف السودان و عالقتها بمنطقة حاليب و شالتين ‪.................................................................................‬‬ ‫ ليبيا ‪45 -44 .........................................................................................................................................‬‬‫ إسرائيل ‪46- 45 ....................................................................................................................................‬‬‫‪4‬‬

‫فهرس المواضيع‬ ‫إيران مواجهة أم إحتواء‬ ‫أوالً‪ :‬التمهيد ‪6 ...........................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ثانياً‪ :‬لمحة تاريخية عن جمهورية إيران اإلسالمية ‪9-7 ...........................................................................................‬‬ ‫ الدولة القاجارية ‪7 ...........................................................................................................................‬‬‫ الثورة الدستورية اإليرانية ‪7 ...................................................................................................... 1907‬‬‫ من الحرب العالمية األولى الى تأسيس الدولة البهلوية "رضا شاه بهلوي ‪8-7 .......................................................‬‬‫ من الشاه الى الجمهورية اإلسالمية ‪9-8 ....................................................................................................‬‬‫ثالثاً‪ :‬األهمية اإلستراتيجية إليران ‪11-9 ................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫رابعاً‪ :‬النظام السياسي اإليراني ‪13-11 ..................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ مؤسسات النظام السياسي اإليراني ‪12 -11 ....................................................................................................‬‬‫ الجيش اإليراني ‪13-12 ...........................................................................................................................‬‬‫ األحزاب السياسية و المعارضة اإليرانية ‪13 ............................................................................................‬‬‫خامساً‪ :‬العالقات الخارجية لدولة إيران اإلسالمية ‪18-13 .............................................................................................‬‬ ‫العالقات اإليرانية بدول الخليج ‪13 ....................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ السعودية ‪15-13 ...................................................................................................................................‬‬‫ اإلمارات ‪15 ....................................................................................................................................‬‬‫ اليمن ‪16 ........................................................................................................................................‬‬‫ العالقات اإليرانية البحرينية ‪18-17 ...........................................................................................................‬‬‫العالقات اإليرانية بدول الشرق األوسط ‪21-17 ..........................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ تركيا ‪18-17 ........................................................................................................................................‬‬‫ إسرائيل ‪18 ....................................................................................................................................‬‬‫ سوريا ‪19 ......................................................................................................................................‬‬‫ العراق ‪20-19 ......................................................................................................................................‬‬‫ لبنان ‪21- -2 ........................................................................................................................................‬‬‫إيران و اللعبة العظيمة ‪21 ..............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الدور اإليرانى إتجاه سياسة الحرب الباردة ‪22-21 ......................................................................................................‬‬ ‫سادساً‪ :‬العالقات الثنائية بين الواليات المتحدة االمريكية و إيران ‪26-22 ..........................................................................‬‬ ‫ العالقات الثنائية فى فترة ما قبل الثورة اإلسالمية ‪23-22 ..................................................................................‬‬‫ العالقات الثنائية مرحلة ما بعد الثورة اإلسالمية ‪23 ....................................................................................‬‬‫‪ -1‬حرب الخليج األولى ‪24-23 ................................................................................................... 1988-1980‬‬ ‫‪ -2‬تعاوم سري بين إيران والواليات المتحدة "إيران – كونترا" ‪24 .....................................................................‬‬ ‫‪ -3‬العالقات األيرانية االمريكية ما بعد احداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر ‪25-24 ...........................................................................‬‬ ‫ ما بعد غزو العراق وإنهيار نظام صدام حسين دور إيران في العراق ‪25 ..........................................................‬‬‫ العالقات اإلقتصادية األمريكية اإليرانية ‪26 ..............................................................................................‬‬‫‪ -‬خسارة للطرفين ‪26 ...........................................................................................................................‬‬

‫سابعاً‪ :‬الملف النووى اإليرانى و سياسة التصعيد ثم اإلحتواء ‪31-26 ..............................................................................‬‬ ‫ تاريخ البرنامج النووى إليران و بداية األزمة ‪27 .......................................................................................‬‬‫‪3‬‬

‫مقدمة عن اللجنة‬ ‫لجنة شئون الشرق األدني وجنوب ووسط آسيا هي لجنة فرعية منبثقة عن لجنة العالقات الخارجية في مجلس الشيوخ األمريكي حيث انها‬ ‫المسؤولة عن العالقات التى تربط بين الواليات المتحدة والبلدان الواقعة في النطاق الجغرافي التى تشملة اللجنة حيث يشمل هذا النطاق دول‬ ‫الشرق األوسط ووسط وجنوب آسيا وبلدان شمال إفريقيا‪.‬‬ ‫بدأت لجنة شئون الشرق األدنى ووسط وجنوب آسيا عملها مع بداية إنشاء نموذج محاكاة الكونجرس األمريكي عام ‪ 2001‬نظرا ً ألهمية المنطقة‬ ‫أوالً وضرورة وجود لجنة تتحدث باللغة العربية‪.‬‬ ‫كان إلنشاء هذة اللجنة أهمية بالغة من قبل القائمين على النموذج حيث تناقش منطقة هى األهم حاليا ً بالنسبة للسياسة الخارجية االمريكية واالمن‬ ‫القوى األمريكى‪ ,‬كما ساهمت هذة اللجنة داخل النموذج في إعادة ربط شريحة كبيرة من أعضائها بثقافتهم العربية ولغتهم األم و هى العربية التى‬ ‫تعتبر اللغة الرسمية للجنة‪.‬‬ ‫المنطقة التي تناقشها اللجنة تعتبر اليوم من اهم المناطق التي تشتعل بالصراعات التي تعتبر مصدرا ً مهما ً ودافعا ً قويا ً لمناقشتها‪ .‬فاإلرهاب‬ ‫سبل مواجهة تلك الجماعات للحفاظ على موارد‬ ‫وظهور جماعات إرهابية جديدة منظمة تعتبر من أهم األحداث التي تواجها دول المنطقة اليوم‪ ,‬ف ُ‬ ‫المنطقة‪ ,‬باإلضافة إلى صراعات الدول الكبرى على دول المنطقة وظهور مفاهيم سياسية جديدة على الساحة الدولية حيث التنافس بين الدول‬ ‫الغربية على موارد دول منطقة شئون الشرق األدنى ووسط وجنوب آسيا والعالقات االقتصادية التي تعتبر من المداخل الحيوية للتأثير على هذة‬ ‫الدول‪.‬‬ ‫كل عام تضع اللجنة أهدافا ً مهمة إلختيار المواضيع المناسبة لمناقشتها‪ ,‬فاإلستفادة من المعلومات التي تقدم من خالل المواضيع والتعرف على‬ ‫أصول الصراعات الدائرة وحلولها والمشكالت التي تواجهها منطقتي اللجنة هي من أهم االهداف التي يسعى فريق المحاضرين تقديمها بالشكل‬ ‫األكاديمي المطلوب‪ ,‬لذلك نأمل أن نكون على قدر المسئولية من خالل الصفحات القادمة لتحقيق األهداف العلمية التى من أجلها نشأت هذة اللجنة‬ ‫والنموذج ككل‪ ,‬وتقديم محتوى علمي وبحثي على قدر كبير من الكفاءة‪.‬‬

‫‪Secretariats Team:‬‬ ‫‪Chair lady: Maha El-Sisi‬‬ ‫‪Vice-Chairman: Mustafa Khaled‬‬ ‫‪Ranking Member: Reem M. Galal‬‬ ‫‪Party Consultant: Ahmed Emad‬‬ ‫‪Ranking Member‬‬

‫‪Chairman‬‬

‫‪Christopher Murphy‬‬ ‫‪Connecticut‬‬

‫‪Jim Risch‬‬ ‫‪Idaho‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫لجنة شئون الشرق األدنى وجنوب ووسط آسيا ومكافحة اإلرهاب‬ Committee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs and Counterterrorism (NESA)

Prepared by Chairlady Maha El-Sisi

Vice Chairman Mustafa Khaled

Ranking Member Reem M. Galal

Party Consultant Ahmed Emad

The 14th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

The 14th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report E Pluribus Unum