evidence-based
Using Big Data for Precision Prevention Measures
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recision is always the goal. And the more we know, the better we’ll be. Today crime and loss problems are primarily defined by recent incidents and emerging patterns. This is good, but we can continue to get better. We can use the term “precision LP” (or “precision AP”) to label our efforts to first move to “evidence-based LP” using scores of LP studies to make better decisions, then push further to “precision LP.” The goal of precision LP is to identify the underlying granular drivers of retail crime attempts, similarly to what is being done in certain subtypes of cancer for example. Understanding crime problems, or diseases, at the molecular level allows for much more precise diagnoses, targeted solutions, and, of course, much better prevention and recovery. Precision LP will be based on future advances in understanding underlying causal mechanisms of our problems, like the interaction of surrounding offenders, their ease of access to our assets, how well we protect those assets, and how well we can learn and improve. We will also need to do something else—share. And that means sharing good stuff. The real key to precision LP is having a central clearinghouse of studies. No single retailer or solution provider can provide the deep and wide data we will need to get very, very good at crime prevention, mitigation, and recovery. We will need to pull together third-party scientific as well as retailer-proprietary studies. Big data are needed in other words. We will need to know how differing neighborhood settings, store types, merchandise mixes, manager priorities and skills, and protective techniques work alone and together.
The Rationale
Why do we want to go to the precision LP model? There are at least two reasons: To truly maximize the impact, effectiveness, and ROI of protective treatments and To minimize negative side effects like shopper and employee frustration and waste. It is important to note that every location, management team, and problem is slightly…but importantly…different.
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July - august 2013
by Read Hayes, Ph.D., CPP Dr. Hayes is director of the Loss Prevention Research Council and coordinator of the Loss Prevention Research Team at the University of Florida. He can be reached at 321-303-6193 or via email at rhayes@lpresearch.org. © 2013 Loss Prevention Research Council
This understanding is very important. It would be great if we could apply prevention measures across the board, but that will never deliver the results we and our management expect. So key precision elements include: Correct understanding of the underlying causes of a specific problem. Understanding how each problem has slightly different elements like we mentioned above. Neighborhoods, managers, and other factors vary, and this variation is really important to sustained success. Assuming we select the right solution or combination of solutions, these measures need to be tweaked to affect that location’s problem.,
Precision LP will be based on future advances in understanding underlying causal mechanisms of our problems, like the interaction of surrounding offenders, their ease of access to our assets, how well we protect those assets, and how well we can learn and improve. Getting There
Like anything good, getting to a much more precise level of LP practice will take vision, time, and action. LP practitioners need much more information to make better decisions. As I mentioned, that information will need to come from individual retail organizations, be blinded as to source, be warehoused, and be analyzed along with collective study data to provide more in-depth information. Take for example an LP department team that is meeting to form their next year’s strategy. They realize a particular product category’s losses are hindering sales along with profitability. The team then conducts their internal problem diagnostics, and then turns to |
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