Lomond Quarterly Insight
In conjunction with Property wisdom at work Summer 2023
Reading between the lines Sales prices | Market confidence | Market balance | Market metrics
Scotland
Strong buyer affordability
Sales | Lettings | Affordability | First-time buyers
Yorkshire
A stable market
Sales | Lettings | Stamp duty | Affordability | Renter requirements
Manchester and the North West
A long-term view
Sales | Lettings | Investment | Attractive yields
Birmingham and West Midlands
West Midlands remains best performing region
Sales | Lettings | Mortgage advice | Future-proofing
South Coast
Serious and sensible buyers
Sales | Lettings | Downsizing | Options
Introduction | A new way to rent | Build to Rent Market | Bespoke service Lomond property services Property wisdom to help businesses
Land and New Homes | Conveyancing | Investment Management | Mortgage Services
Content Lomond Quarterly Insight 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 20 Introduction
Ed Phillips, Group Chief Executive National sales
Investment
National lettings Continued pressure on stock Renting for longer | Renter affordability | Rental price dynamics | Market metrics Lomond
Management
+8%
Rise in properties under Lomond lettings management in the past 3 months, as institutional investment redefines the rental sector.
Truth behind the headlines
Reasons to move
Daily reports of rising mortgage rates, slower than expected falls in inflation, increased legislation and the continued rise in the cost of living are fuelling concern among homeowners, renters and landlords. There’s no denying the very real challenges being felt across the country but there is much more to consider than the headlines suggest.
In this second edition of the Lomond Quarterly Insight, we look beyond the headlines, using our extensive data and experience to provide the real picture of what’s happening across the UK’s housing market.
Those considering a move, a purchase or an investment could easily be deterred but, across our 60+ branch network, it is evident there are a wide range of mortgages available and lots of activity taking place, clearly at odds with the current headlines. Our properties under management have increased by 8% in the last three months and with more than £267 million of property sales completed, these numbers clearly demonstrate the ongoing activity levels. There will always be reasons why people need
to move and in many regions there are still huge supply shortages compared to the number of buyers and renters.
Long-term opportunities
For landlords, increased costs and legislation can seem daunting. Regardless of the content of the final Renters Reform Bill, the market will adapt and respond, as it has before. We welcome compliance as it leads to increased quality and continued professionalism of the sector with opportunities for landlords prepared to take a long-term view.
In this report, we introduce our Lomond Investment Management team who are on hand to advise and support individual landlords through to large institutional investors and Build to Rent developers.
Lomond Quarterly Insight | 1
“Current market conditions may seem challenging but our dedicated network of property professionals are providing reasoned and experienced support to help our clients to maximise returns.”
Ed Phillips Group Chief Executive
Dataloft, Property Academy Survey 2022
20% Of buyer moves are prompted by need (family, job, probate or financial).
13.5%
Increase in sales price
January 2021 to May 2023
Dataloft, Nationwide
Reading between the lines
Sales prices
Following a small dip after a peak of £273,751 in August 2022, average sales prices still remain 13.5% above January 2021.
Moderation
The property market today is in a different place than it was a year, three years, 10 years or even 25 years ago. The circumstances at these points all differed but the market has constantly evolved and repeatedly proven to be a sound investment decision for those looking to the long term. While sales prices have fallen 4.8% since their peak last summer, the sensationalist headlines often omit the fact that they remain 13.5% higher than in January 2021 (Nationwide).
A survey of over 10,000 home movers conducted last year found that over 60% of sellers had lived in their property for more than seven years (Property Academy). Analysis of historic data since the 1950s by Nationwide shows that only during the mid-1990s was 7-year nominal UK property price growth in negative territory. Prices are calmly moderating from the peaks witnessed last summer and experienced agents have witnessed the ebb and flow of markets before and are well placed to guide buyers and sellers through the months ahead.
pursuit of flexibility and maximum choice.
Buyers respond
Volatility in the mortgage market is clearly making headlines and is undoubtedly unnerving for many in fixed-priced deals due to end over the coming months. However, we are finding that buyer demand continues to track above available supply across our Lomond network. Prospective buyers are serious and keen to move. There will always be sellers who need or want to sell and buyers who need or want to buy, creating natural movement in the market.
Buyers are continuing to seek financial advice, with many re-negotiating mortgage offers during the conveyancing period to ensure their mortgage deal is as suitable as possible. They are altering their budgets, search locations or desired property specifications to reflect their financial position.
Dataloft, Nationwide Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 £229,748 £231,068 £232,134 £238,831 £242,832 £245,432 £244,229 £248,857 £248,742 £250,311 £252,687 £254,822 £255,556 £260,230 £265,312 £267,620 £269,914 £271,613 £271,209 £273,751 £272,259 £268,282 £263,788 £262,068 £258,297 £257,406 £257,122 £260,441 £260,736 Lomond Quarterly Insight | 2
As the mortgage market becomes more complex, buyers are increasingly turning to mortgage advisors in
Sales prices remain 13.5% higher than at the start of 2021 despite having fallen 4.8% since the peak of the market last summer.
SALES
41
Instructions per branch March 2023 – May 2023
28
March 2022 – May 2022
238
Applicants per branch March 2023 – May 2023
192
March 2022 – May 2022
18
Exchanges per branch March 2023 – May 2023
19
March 2022 – May 2022
90
Market metrics Current at 4 July 2023
Mortgage approvals May 2023
Change since Feb 2023
Sales May 2023
Change since Feb 2023
Economy GDP growth April 2023
Change from year earlier
Average property price April 2023
Change since Feb 2023
New homes built Q1 2023
Change from Q1 2022
Bank base rate June 2023
Change from Feb 2023
50,524 15% 80,020 -8.7% 0.2% +0.2% £286,489 -1.1% 54,575 -10.4% 5.0% +1.0%
Demand Supply pipeline Buyer interest 39.8% withdrawal 33.8% fall through rate 35.0% One year ago 33.3% One year ago Lomond Quarterly Insight | 3
Valuations per branch March 2023 – May 2023
76
March 2022 – May 2022
12
Viewings per instruction March 2023 – May 2023
11
March 2022 – May 2022
Market balance Lomond, Dataloft, ONS
ONS, DLUHC Average numbers per branch during time period specified New applicants per new instruction Annual house price change Nov 2021 Feb 2022 May 2022 Aug 2022 Nov 2022 Feb 2023 Apr 2023 8 14% 16% 0 0% 2 4% 3 6% 4 8% 5 10% 6 12% 7 1 2%
Bank of England, HMRC,
Supply Activity Market confidence Mar 2023 – May 2023 Lomond, Dataloft
Our data performs across our network
22.4%
Demand is seasonably high, particularly in urban areas, with 4 in 5 of our renters looking for a home in a town or city.
Lettings market sees continued pressure on stock
Sustained pressure
The rental market continues to be very busy, with rising demand levels intensified by the usual seasonal peak in student demand. At the same time, the supply of properties available for renters remains constrained. In the last three months we registered 27 new applicants for every property listed. This continues to put upward pressure on rents with HomeLet reporting a 10% increase in May year-on-year. Renters are also choosing to renew and remain in their tenancies longer as they monitor the wider economic picture, exacerbating the supply issue.
Location, location, location
Following the exodus from cities during the pandemic, renters now live a median six miles from their workplace, compared to just five miles pre-Pandemic (Dataloft). With a return to the office, we are seeing a desire for renters to live closer to work, resulting in fierce competition between those wanting to move back in closer to city centres. However, we are still seeing a high demand for outdoor space, with 80% of applicants looking for a garden or other external area.
Changing landscape
The long-awaited Renters Reform Bill has been presented in Parliament, with the aim to make the private rented sector safer and fairer for renters. Seeking to eliminate Section 21 no-fault evictions and implement a move to period as opposed to fixed-term tenancies, the bill also includes measures to benefit landlords, such as the right to possession and the creation of a new online portal.
The rental landscape is no doubt changing. The sector is becoming more professional and is no longer seen as a short-term asset. Despite rising interest rates, the softening of sales prices means that those looking for a medium to long-term investment vehicle should not only see capital growth but also rising rents and yields. Investors without a mortgage, or with lower loan-to-values are in a particularly strong position.
Lomond
for longer Average initial tenancy length (months) Q2 2023 vs Q2 2019 by household type Dataloft Rental Market Analytics, length of tenancy initially signed (months) Q2 2023 Q2 2019 Lomond Quarterly Insight | 4
Renting
Increase in rental applicants March to May 2023 compared with March to May 2022
Couple/Sharer 13.81 10.48 Family 12.07 10.21 Single 11.75 9.20
Rental growth of 6% per annum over the next five years is predicted by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.
LETTINGS
Rental price dynamics
Market metrics Current at 4 July 2023
Earnings growth rate Feb 2023 – Apr 2023
Average rents annual change May 2023
Unemployment rate Feb 2023 – Apr 2023
Inflation current annual rate of change May 2023
Gross renter affordability March – May 2023 BTR pipeline under construction + planning
Our data performs across our network
14
Instructions per branch
2023 – May 2023 14 March 2022 – May 2022
371
Applicants per branch March 2023 – May 2023
376*
March 2022 – May 2022
79
Tenancies agreed per branch March 2023 – May 2023 89
March 2022 – May 2022
27
Applicants per instruction March 2023 – May 2023
35*
March 2022 – May 2022
33
Viewings per new instruction March 2023 – May 2023
36
March 2022 – May 2022
Lomond, HomeLet Lomond, Dataloft, ONS, HomeLet, BPF Average numbers per branch during time period specified *Excludes Yorkshire Annual change in UK rents Change from year earlier Change from year earlier Change from year earlier Change from year earlier Change from year earlier Change from year earlier Feb 2022 Feb 2021 Feb 2023 May 2023 May 2020 May 2022 May 2021 Aug 2020 Aug 2022 Aug 2021 Nov 2020 Nov 2022 Nov 2021 12% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Supply Activity Demand
affordability Dataloft Rental Market Analytics, showing median % renter incomes spent on rent after tax 31.1% net Mar 2018 – May 2018 33.2% net Mar 2023 – May 2023 Lomond Quarterly Insight | 5
Supply/ demand balance Competition Renter
March
7.2% +3.1% £1,213 +10.0% 3.8% -0.0% 8.7% -0.4% 26.7% +0.3% 168,703 +9.7%
Scotland
Operating the largest lettings agency in Scotland, our branch network covers the strategic locations of Edinburgh, Glasgow, St Andrews and Aberdeen.
David Alexander Regional CEO
to same period three months earlier
+1 Lower Higher -1 Lower Higher Lower +4 Higher Lower +4 Higher +1 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher -1 Lower Higher -1 Lower Higher Lomond Quarterly Insight | 6 Supply Supply New instructions per branch New instructions per branch Exchanges per branch New tenancies agreed per branch
per branch
per branch
per instruction
per instruction Demand Demand Activity Activity Supply/demand Supply/demand SALES compared
LETTINGS compared
Applicants
Applicants
Applicants
Applicants
to same period three months earlier
“Sales activity remains buoyant with property prices remaining firm. Rental properties continue to let quickly and at asking price.”
21 24 9 184 289 136 14 6
Strong buyer affordability underpins the sales market
Sales demand
Relatively high buyer affordability across Scotland’s sales markets continues to underpin activity levels with strong home mover and first-time buyer demand in our markets. House prices are currently 4.4 times average annual earnings for Scotland, substantially lower than the UK average at 6.8 times. Furthermore, first-time buyer mortgage payments as a percentage of take-home pay are the lowest of any region in the United Kingdom (Nationwide). Home mover and first-time buyer demand in our market areas is up compared to the start of the year. Many home movers are looking to upsize; houses with three or more bedrooms in our towns and suburbs are in high demand. First-time buyers are currently seeking ready-to-move into smaller one and two-bedroom apartments, which form a key focus for those seeking citycentre living.
Strong demand for properties north of the border continues to support pricing. At present the majority of our network sales are at, or in excess of, the Home Valuation Report. Monthon-month and year-on-year price
growth in Edinburgh, Glasgow, St Andrews and Aberdeenshire has softened considerably from a year ago, but as yet there is little evidence of significant price moderation (UK HPI).
Rental records
A shortage of supply and continued high demand continue to underpin rental market activity, with 75% of properties let within a week of listing. Double-digit annual rental growth for newly-agreed lets is evident in many areas. There is considerably less movement in the market as many renters are choosing to stay put.
Renter affordability in Scotland varies by area*.
22.2%
First-time buyer mortgage payments as a % of take home pay
Nationwide, UK HPI
Renters are protected by a moratorium on evictions and a 3% cap on rent rises until the end of September 2023 at the earliest. Private landlords can apply to Rent Service Scotland to increase rents to cover up to 50% of increased costs relating to mortgage interest payments, insurance premiums and service charges, to a maximum of 6%. Across Scotland the median proportion of gross income spent on rent is currently 22.8%, slightly higher than the five-year average (22.1%). The current median income of a renter is just shy of £29,000 (DRMA). There are however distinct variations, reflecting the specific natures of our market areas.
Lomond Quarterly Insight | 7 Dataloft Rental Market Analytics, based on new tenancies in 12 months to end of May 2023. St Andrews based on LA of Fife, Aberdeen on City of Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire. Median Gross income spent on rent Median Age
Scotland 223
Scotland Number of employees
Edinburgh
Glasgow
St Andrews
Aberdeen
£149,580 Average FTB Price Scotland
26.4% 27
22.8% 27
22.3% 33
21.0% 32
From The Pennines to the east coast, The Dales to The Peaks, our branches span the breadth and depth of Yorkshire.
+1 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher -1 Lower Higher -2 Lower Higher +2 Lower Higher +3 Lower Higher +5 Lower Higher Lomond Quarterly Insight | 8
Yorkshire
“Sales and lettings market activity is stronger than at the start of the year, and we have a good stock of properties available for those looking to buy or rent.”
Supply Supply New instructions per branch New instructions per branch Exchanges per branch New tenancies agreed per branch Applicants per branch Applicants per branch Applicants per instruction Applicants per instruction Demand Demand Activity Activity Supply/demand Supply/demand SALES compared to same period three months earlier LETTINGS compared to same period three months earlier 35 12 14 72 210 392 6 34
Martin Elliott Regional CEO
15338
Number of properties under management Yorkshire
A stable market
Affordability
At 5.3 times average annual earnings, Nationwide report that average house prices in Yorkshire and the Humber are the most affordable of any region in England, except for the North of England. Across our market many buyers are proceeding despite wider concerns.
In excess of 70% of home movers and over 90% of first-time buyers in our region currently benefit from zero Stamp Duty Land Tax when purchasing as their only residence. In the past year more than nine in every ten apartments in Leeds, Bradford and Hull, and over two-thirds of those sold in York and Harrogate sold for less than the £250,000 tax threshold. Of all houses with three bedrooms or more sold in the region, 87% were under £250,000¹.
Leeds leads the way
Across the region we now manage over 15,000 rental properties, up 19% year-on-year², and we are still seeing lots of potential investor landlords willing to buy. Leeds is setting the pace for investment activity. With indicative gross yields of 6.3% for a onebedroom apartment and 7.1% for
70% of sales in Yorkshire are below the £250,000 Stamp Duty Land Tax threshold.
Leeds Railway station is the third busiest station in the country outside of London, providing access to the city’s cafés, restaurants, shopping, culture and nightlife and over 134,000 job opportunities5
Renter requirements
For agents, landlords and renters alike, changes to Section 21 and Section 8 legislation within the proposed Renter Reform Bill are undoubtedly those of most interest. For landlords, any requirements relating to improved energy efficiency will also be keenly awaited. Over 93% of properties let in the past year have the potential to reach an EPC ‘C’ or above, although at present just 48% achieve this 3 For renters, regulations that makes it easier to move in or between properties with a pet will be highly significant.
a 2-bedroom (DRMA)3, Leeds city centre and its suburbs are a hot spot for activity.
More than £3.9 billion has been invested in the city, with a further £7.3 billion of development in the pipeline and under construction over the next decade. This will continue to boost the economy which is forecast to grow by 21% 4
Pet friendly
43%
60% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 70% 40% 80% 50% 90% Lomond Quarterly Insight | 9
Apartment
Yorkshire
Terraced Semidetached Detached
Dataloft, Land Registry, DLUHC, based on property sales over past 12 months
¹Dataloft, Land Registry, DLUHC, based on properties sold in the year to end April 2023, ²Lomond ᶟ3Land Registry, DLUHC and Dataloft Rental Market Analytics, 4Leeds City Council, 5BRES
Lomond
Of renters request that pets allowed is a ‘must have’
90.2% 87.4% 75.5% 22.8%
Manchester and the North West
Covering
+2 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher +2 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher Lower +4 Higher +1 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher -2 Lower Higher Lomond Quarterly Insight | 10
Manchester,
Chester,
unrivalled
of knowledge in key strategic locations.
Stockport and
our local experts have an
depth
“Prices are correcting after unstainable growth over the last few years. It remains a good time to buy, with prices only set to increase in the long term.”
Supply Supply New instructions per branch New instructions per branch Exchanges per branch New tenancies agreed per branch Applicants per branch Applicants per branch Applicants per instruction Applicants per instruction Demand Demand Activity Activity Supply/demand Supply/demand SALES compared to same period three months earlier LETTINGS compared to same period three months earlier 45 12 23 75 334 360 7 31
Jason Watkin Regional CEO
A long-term view
Appetite remains
Throughout our region, activity is steady across all price points, with Manchester’s high levels of employment and investment keeping the market afloat, despite recent turbulence. Demand is high in the suburbs for properties between £300-£400k, and apartments in the city remain popular. Rising costs mean well-insulated, energy-efficient properties are increasingly in demand. Multiple viewings and offers are still occurring for high quality properties priced correctly, with around two out of three of our properties agreed at above asking prices. However, realism by vendors is critical as buyers are particularly diligent about price point.
Long-term investment
With mortgage volatility and increasing legislation, we are seeing some landlords in the city selling up, and fewer new landlords registering. The landlords exiting tend to be those with only one or two properties, who are concerned about increasing costs and legislation in the sector.
Professional landlords are still taking the opportunity to buy at good prices, with good yields, supported by the
£
for
particularly with a post-Covid shift back to city-centre living. Manchester experienced the second highest rental growth of the UK cities, with an annual increase of 13% (Zoopla). Most of our properties are let within a week, and we are noticing tenants are staying longer and renewing more. Renters in Manchester are spending an average of 25% of their income on rent (Dataloft Rental Market Analytics, March to May 2023). Assuming a renter affordability threshold of 30%, renters are currently within their affordability limits. Location is of top importance, with outdoor space or home working space a nice-to-have.
strong rental market. Houses continue to provide the best medium to long-term investment. Good advice is key in supporting landlords through a changing environment and making their investment work hard.
Rental Affordability
The rental market remains largely in the same place as the start of the year, with supply down and demand high,
Attractive yields
7.3% Average £sqft gross yield for 2-bed apartments in Manchester Local Authority
March to May 2023
Lomond Quarterly Insight | 11 27% 39%
Average rents
apartments in the city, and houses in the outer Manchester area, have substantially increased over the last five years.
Dataloft Rental Market Analytics, based on new tenancies let 12 months to May 2023 versus same period five years earlier. Rents in £psf.
Dataloft Rental Market Analytics
Manchester and the North West
Strong rental growth across our region City of Manchester Outer Manchester 5-year rental growth
Value of properties sold in last 3 months
£90.6m
Birmingham and West Midlands
Our heart of England branches cover Birmingham, and from Cannock down to picturesque villages on the Cotswolds border.
-2 Lower Higher -1 Lower Higher +2 Lower Higher Lower +4 Higher -1 Lower Higher -1 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher Lomond Quarterly Insight | 12
“Coming into the busier summer months, we are seeing steady levels of demand and a seasonal upturn in properties coming onto the market.”
Supply Supply New instructions per branch New instructions per branch Exchanges per branch New tenancies agreed per branch Applicants per branch Applicants per branch Applicants per instruction Applicants per instruction Demand Demand Activity Activity Supply/demand Supply/demand
compared to same period three months earlier LETTINGS compared to same period three months earlier 19 23 4 67 120 364 6 16
Richard Crathorne Regional CEO
SALES
Acquisitions in the past 2 years
Birmingham and West Midlands
West Midlands remains best performing region
Robust market
Despite recent headwinds, the sales market is performing well, supported by high levels of employment and mobility in the market. The vast majority of our sales are within 5% of asking price, however the importance of good pricing remains paramount. The West Midlands remains the UK’s best performing region in the most recent Halifax House Price Index, with average sale prices up 2.7% year-onyear. The market is still undersupplied, but demand has improved since the start of the year, with a good uptake of registered buyers, and increasing buyer interest. Buyers seem to be accepting a new normal and building extra costs into their affordability as the core reasons why people move remain unchanged.
Mortgage advice
In light of current mortgage market volatility, we are seeing an increase in mortgage appointments. Despite less availability, products are more versatile, meaning financial advice from an experienced team is proving increasingly beneficial in helping customers to navigate the changing lending environment.
Homes of three or more bedrooms are the most popular property type in the West Midlands region.
The average price of houses with three or more bedrooms in our suburban areas has increased by over 8% year-on-year (Dataloft).
Rental market
The market continues to run very hot, underpinned by the supply demand imbalance and supported by young, affluent renters. Apartment living is strong in Birmingham, making up 57% of properties let. Two-bed apartments in the city and two and three-bed houses in the suburbs remain highly attractive, providing opportunities to work from home or attracting couples/ sharers, who make up 44% of the renter market (Dataloft Rental Market Analytics).
42% Step on the ladder
Futureproofing
First-time buyers (FTBs) are highly active in our market, as pressure on renters shows no sign of relenting. Two-bed apartments in the city centre, and three and four-bed houses in the suburbs, are in demand, as buyers aim to future-proof their purchase.
of properties sold in our area are under the firsttime buyer average price.
Average FTB buyer price: £204,338 (West Midlands)
Lomond Quarterly Insight | 13
UK HPI April 2023, Dataloft, Land Registry, YTD 2023
6
Profile of properties sold Dataloft, Land Registry, YTD 2023, best fit Lomond Local Authorities 1 bed apartment 1 bed house 2 bed apartment 2 bed house 3 bed apartment 3 bed house 4+ bed apartment 4+ bed house Studio apartment Birmingham (Inner Circle) Rest of Lomond West Midlands area (Outer Circle) FOR SALESOLD
South Coast
Reaching from Chichester to Camber, our network of south coast branches are market leaders for sales and lettings.
+3 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher +3 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher +3 Lower Higher +1 Lower Higher +2 Lower Higher -1 Lower Higher Lomond Quarterly Insight | 14
“Buyers in the market are keen and serious to take the next step on their property journey. They have sought financial advice and properties priced sensibly continue to sell well.”
Supply Supply New instructions per branch New instructions per branch Exchanges per branch New tenancies agreed per branch Applicants per branch Applicants per branch Applicants per instruction Applicants per instruction Demand Demand Activity Activity Supply/demand Supply/demand SALES compared to same period three months earlier LETTINGS compared to same period three months earlier 63 10 27 51 259 477 4 47
Paul Broomham Regional CEO
Number of branches
Coast
Serious and sensible buyers
Buyer preferences
Across our area we have a good mix of first-time buyers, home movers and downsizers actively seeking properties. Newly-launched properties are attracting interest leading to offers, with the majority of sales agreed within 5% of the initial sales price1. Location and access to amenities continue to rank highly in buyer decision making, although many are also looking at condition. Well-presented and energy-efficient properties are popular.
Nearly half (47%) of all properties sold in Brighton over the past year have been apartments. First-time buyers more often seek one-bedroom, or where budgets allow, two-bedroom apartments to provide the flexibility to work from home, accommodate guests or to future proof. In 2023 to date, 20% of applicants have stated a balcony is on their wish list and 14% a roof terrace, perhaps reflecting the desire for a coastal view 2
In Worthing 11.5% of all sales over the past year have been bungalows, a popular property choice for downsizers. Apartments/maisonettes
are also sought after. Downsizers can often release equity as part of a property sale, with significant savings to be made dependent on location and the type of property. The proportion of cash sales in our area has risen in recent months; one in three sales to date in 2023 has been a cash purchase, up from 28% in 2019 2
Alternative options
The rental market in our area continues to be fast paced, an uptick in supply is failing to keep up with renter demand. In the main renters are accepting that they need to spend more or are
widening their search area. For those with a specific budget, renters are considering better quality house shares as opposed to renting on their own, with couples renting smaller apartments than previously. Less than one in three (31%) of all new onebedroom apartment lets in the past year have been to a single occupant, down from over half (57%) three years ago 3. While we are seeing a slight reduction in the private sector investment market, interest in the holiday lets markets has grown, with developments such as Brighton Marina proving highly popular.
Brighton, Hove and Worthing
1-bed apartments
1 in 4 properties let in the past year, compared to 1 in 5 previous year
Lomond Quarterly Insight | 15 House prices Brighton & Hove Worthing
Downsizing offers the chance to release equity.
1Lomond, 2 Land Registry, 3 Dataloft Rental Market Analytics
Dataloft, Land Registry, DLUHC, based on median values of sales Q2 2022 to Q1 2023
11 4+ Bed House 3-Bed Bungalow 2-Bed Maisonette 2-Bed Luxury Apartment £725,000 £535,000 £467,000 £455,000 £347,500 £229,575 £446,500 £300,300
South
Dataloft Rental Market Analytics, based on new tenancies let across Brighton and Hove, and Worthing, based on new tenancies started in the past 12 months
2,000
Build to Rent (both multifamily and single-family housing) units under Lomond Investment Management by the end of 2023.
Source: Lomond
Lomond Investment Management
Expansion and diversification
UK residential investment has materially changed in the last decade with the growing involvement of institutional investors. The Investment Property Forum (IPF) estimated that the value of the UK private rented sector (PRS) more than trebled between 2012 and 2018. In 2022 alone, institutions invested over £4bn.
Institutional investors are actively seeking opportunities across the UK, acquiring stock and building at scale, to bring a wide range of new products to market and setting new rent levels in many places. The presence of these large-scale operators and investors will continue. Based on the number of schemes currently in the planning pipeline, there could be 251,000 Build to Rent (BTR) homes across the UK in the next few years, expanding by 205% the stock of BTR homes already completed. While up until now largely comprising multi-family city apartments, the sector is quickly expanding into high-quality, professionally-managed houses in suburban areas, known as singlefamily housing (SFH). H1 2023 saw the highest level of investment in SFH on record, at £408m.
9%
Growth in BTR sector in the last year
Source: British Property Federation (BPF)
Bespoke property services
Acknowledging this growth, yet recognising the complexities and unique requirements of portfolio and asset management, we have built a strong team of experienced industry experts to successfully navigate the entire investment journey.
Uniquely positioned to be able to draw on the local experience of our national network of over 60 branches, together with asset and property managers, Lomond Investment Management (LIM) provides an account-managed single point of contact service for developers and investors in the Build to Rent, single-family housing, lettings and offshore markets throughout the UK, irrespective of portfolio size and geographical location. With a strong pipeline, the number of these properties under LIM management is set to double by the end of 2023.
Lomond Quarterly Insight | 16
“Benefitting from the national coverage of our network, Lomond Investment Management (LIM) offers a centrallymanaged, bespoke and innovative service to BTR and single-family housing providers, developers and investors focused on maximising return and mitigating risk.”
Lucy Jones Chief Operating Officer
A new way to rent
A healthy planning pipeline
London and regional BTR, including single-family housing at end of Q1 2023
A growing share
The number of homes in the institutional private rented sector has more than doubled in the past five years. Although BTR makes up just 2% of the UK’s private rental stock today, the schemes already in planning will raise that to 5% in the near future and to 10% in London. Some experts predict it could reach 40% of all rental stock. Although early investment was concentrated in the capital, the regional markets have grown at twice the rate of London in the last 12 months. Today, 66% of homes in the BTR planning pipeline are in the regions and 68.5% of those under construction. Initially the focus was on urban apartments but there is growing interest in single-family housing in more suburban locations.
Two-thirds of renters believe a sense of community is important, while pleasant neighbours matter for 87%, rating more highly than broadband speed, a parking space or garden1 .
Customer first
The Build to Rent sector has a stated ambition to transform the renter experience. Homes are purpose-built for rental and professionally managed by dedicated operators, adopting customer service values inherent in the hospitality sector. Providers actively promote community and aim to create highquality living environments where residents choose to stay for longer.
Source: Dataloft, BPF, Savills
This is reflected in the demographics. 58% of renters in BTR are couples or sharers compared to 40% in the wider private rented sector (PRS). In other ways, people who live in BTR mirror the wider renter population in age and income. The fact that more than one in five families with dependent children live in the PRS underpins the demand for single-family housing. (Census 2021).
Although eight in ten renters sign an initial lease for one year or less, more than half would welcome a longer lease and one in six (18%) would pay extra to secure a property for longer, rising to nearly one in four (23%) for families ¹. Virtually all BTR providers offer lease lengths of three years and over half (53%) of tenancies are renewed2
Lomond Quarterly Insight | 17
Build to Rent homes in the UK
251,208
A rapidly-expanding sector of the rental market, Build to Rent provides renters with an appealing, flexible lifestyle and offers institutional investors diversified, long-term stable returns.
¹ Dataloft, Property Academy Renter Survey 2022 2 Who Lives in Build to Rent, BPF, UKAA & BusinessLDN, Dataloft 180,000 100,000 140,000 60,000 20,000 160,000 80,000 120,000 40,000 0 Planning Under Construction Complete London Regions
Source: British Property Federation, Savills, Molior, as at end Q1 2023 (includes units built, under construction and in pipeline)
BUILD TO RENT MARKET
Households type
Institutional investment has historically focussed on the apartment market. However, families constitute a large proportion of the private rented sector and this is a growth area for Build to Rent.
What’s included?
Community, convenience, and amenities are appealing aspects of BTR, particularly for singles and couples. A recent survey of BTR developments identified the most common facilities included in current developments. In addition to the amenities below, over half of developments surveyed included a residents’ lounge, co-working or meeting spaces and a gym in their offer.
Commonly included in BTR rents:
88% social calendar of events
85% concierge
81% shared garden and/or roof terrace
Lease lengths
One of the attractive features of Build to Rent is the choice of lease lengths. 92% of the developments recently surveyed offered lease lengths of three years. In the current environment of rising rents, longer lease lengths provide security and certainty for renters. Longer leases also give operators a stable income and can reduce void periods.
79% parcel acceptance/ storage
69% 24-hour security
Lomond Quarterly Insight | 18
UK survey of BTR developments, Who Lives in Build to Rent UK edition Nov 2022
Who Lives in Build to Rent, BPF, UKAA & BusinessLDN, Dataloft
Who Lives in Build to Rent, BPF, UKAA & BusinessLDN, Dataloft
Lease length Average proportion of schemes offering lease length Proportion of units with lease length active 1 year 92% 66% 2 year 80% 8% 3 year 92% 23% More than 3 years 25% 3% Couple/Sharer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Single Families Build to Rent Wider PRS
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Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Lomond and Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use. At all times the content of this report remains the property of Lomond and/or Dataloft Ltd under copyright, and reproduction of all or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Lomond and/or Dataloft Ltd. Analysis, editorial design, graphics and charts by Dataloft. Date of publication: July 2023.
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