NEWSLETTER
Equipping the Actuaries of Tomorrow 22 DECEMBER 2024
FOREWORD
ABOUT US
The LSESU Actuarial Society is the largest actuarial student society in London. Throughout the years, our society has built upon its successes and advanced our mission to educate the actuaries of tomorrow. Education and connection are the key value proposition that the LSESU Actuarial Society brings to its members. As part of our broader strategy of looking into the future, we strive towards providing more professional development resources, opportunities, and actuarial insights for our members. Additionally, we seek to expand our coverage on emerging actuarial trends by hosting diversified events to further extend our reach on topics outside of the traditional Actuarial professions.
We organise talks and workshops to raise commercial awareness among our members about pensions and insurance while exploring the way actuaries respond to challenges in this ever-evolving world with endless possibilities. There are various opportunities to ask seniors and alumni about their experiences working in actuarial placements, and providing members with advice about internships is also one of the great services our society can offer.
Additionally, we host networking events that connect students directly with industry professionals, providing them with the opportunity to foster relationships that are essential for career development. We are committed to providing our members with memorable experiences and insights about Actuarial Science, and most importantly, ‘Equipping the Actuaries of Tomorrow’.
To highlight some key successes from the 2023-2024 academic year, we proudly hosted our 11th annual Actuarial Conference at LSE, featuring the President of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) as a distinguished guest. Additionally, we successfully organised our 2nd Actuarial Case Competition, supported by our sponsors and partners.
This academic year, the research division will be responsible for releasing a newsletter to members and nonmembers of the society. Our members will get exclusive access to the newsletter a few days before public release and access to exclusive stories.
AIM OF THE NEWSLETTER
Improve the industry knowledge of our readers
Keep readers up to date with changes in the industry
Update readers on actuarial roles and opportunities they can get into
Update readers on what we are doing as a society
Our newsletter is mainly targeted towards Undergraduates and Postgraduates looking to join the actuarial field but even if you don’t fall into those that category feel free to give our newsletter a read.
COP 29 Finding a Path Forward
COP29 was dubbed the ‘finance COP’, as the main item on the agenda was to come up with a new annual figure for the Annual Public Climate Finance goal (the sum that developed countries pledge to pay developing countries). The payment acknowledges the fact that developing countries have historically produced lower levels of emissions, and thus have contributed less to climate change, yet are impacted by the effects of climate change disproportionately. The current deal is worth $100 billion
Developing countries came to the negotiations in Baku hoping that the Annual Public Climate Finance goal would go up to $1.3 trillion by 2035. However, after two weeks of bitter negotiations, developing countries walked away with a deal worth $300 billion.
Although that’s a 200% increase when you take into account global annual inflation (which is 5% based on a rough approximation of average global inflation since 2020 and the International Monetary Fund’s forecast up to 2025), the deal has been widely seen as insufficient. Some estimates suggest that developing countries will need between $5 - 7 trillion annually by 2030 to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and achieve net-zero emissions. The negotiations for the deal overran meaning that the conference finished on Saturday at 23:00 (local time), meaning the conference finished 33 hours late When the deal was announced, there was a round of applause but that didn’t mean everyone was satisfied.
The deal was criticised by Chandni Raina, a member of India's COP29 delegation, who said, "We are disappointed in the outcome which clearly brings out the unwillingness of the developed country parties to fulfil their responsibilities." She also added that it was “nothing more than an optical illusion," and stated that it "will not address the enormity of the challenge we all face."
"It is not everything we or others wanted, but it is a step forward for us all," stated Ed Miliband, the UK's energy secretary. The chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, Cedric Schuster, said: Cedric Schuster, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, remarked, "Our islands are sinking. How can we return to our people, women, men, and children, with such a poor deal?" Meanwhile, Jasper Inventor, head of the Greenpeace delegation at COP29, described the agreement as "woefully inadequate."
Much of the first week of COP29 was dominated by discussion on what would it mean for the world in trying to reach climate targets of President-elect Trump taking office in January. Trump is seen as a climate-sceptic and has said he would take the US out of the 2015 Paris Agreement. This raised concerns about the future role of the U.S. which is the country that tends to be at the centre of climate discussions. As a result, attention shifted to which country might step up as the leader in addressing climate change in the U.S.'s absence. The natural successor is expected to be China. As one of the world’s most populous countries and largest emitters, China having an effective climate policy will massively help the world meet its climate goals. Based on the UN’s definition, China is still classified as a developing nation, which means they have no formal obligation to reduce emissions or provide financial support to poorer countries However, China has agreed to a formula within the COP29 deal that would allow its contributions to be counted towards the Annual Public Climate Finance goal voluntarily.
China has been making strides in renewable energy, installing more solar panels last year than the U.S. has ever installed in its entire history. In fact, China’s emissions could plateau as early as 2024.
The $300 billion will go to developing countries to help them move away from fossil fuels, adapt to climate change and pay for the damage caused by climate change. Ed Miliband underlined that although the new agreement did not require the UK to provide further climate funding, he emphasised that it was a “huge opportunity for British businesses” to invest in other markets. However, many nations didn’t see the deal as an investment, instead, they saw it as a financial burden.
Climate change is investment, not a financial burden
A key question for climate-conscious financiers is how can they make it clear that funds allocated to climate change are viewed as an investment, not a financial burden. First and foremost, financiers (particularly actuaries) must communicate the financial consequences of climate risk and the damage caused by climate-related events. Green bonds are fixed-income securities issued to raise funds for financing projects with positive environmental benefits. The key characteristic of green bonds is that the money raised goes towards "green" initiatives, which are usually approved as ecologically sustainable. Apple released a green bond in 2020 to fund environmental projects like increasing their use of renewable energy sources and making all of their products from recyclable materials. In order to finance climate-related initiatives, the World Bank and the European Investment Bank (EIB) have also issued sizeable quantities of green bonds. Individuals and corporations can choose to invest in green bonds if they want decent returns and if they want their money to be put into helping save the environment.
Actuaries can use their skill set to evaluate the financial and environmental risks associated with green projects. This includes analysing climate-related risks and ensuring that the projects funded by green bonds are sustainable and viable in the long term. This will provide investors with confidence and will mean the funds are only attributed to sustainable and viable projects
The other question for climate-conscious financiers raised as a result of COP29 is
what next for developing countries?
Many developed nations have stated that they will need to raise extra finances due to the poor deal. Green bonds are likely to form part of the solution to the shortfall. However, when it comes to addressing the damages caused by climate-related events, catastrophe bonds are a potential solution. Catastrophe bonds are insurance-linked securities designed to transfer financial risk associated with natural disasters from the issuer (typically governments or insurance companies) to investors. If certain triggers set by the issuer are met, the funds raised from the sale of the bonds will be used to subsidise insurance companies that may have suffered from accumulated insurance claims during natural disasters. Catastrophe bonds’ lack of correlation with financial markets, their role in portfolio diversification, and their alignment with Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria make them attractive to many investors.
In 2020, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) issued cat bonds to help Caribbean nations cope with the financial impact of natural disasters. (One of the most common triggers for cat bonds is parametric triggers read more about that on page ). Catastrophe risk must usually be quantified through highly specialist modelling before a catastrophe bond may be issued. The models aid in evaluating the financial effects of disasters. In reality, the physical features of natural disasters are mathematically represented using sophisticated software. The model's results and the prices of other catastrophe bonds on the market serve as the basis for the pricing of the bonds. This work fits the skill set of actuaries.
COP29 has highlighted the importance of climate finance in supporting developing countries to fight climate change. The future of climate finance will be significantly shaped by actuaries. Their proficiency in modelling, risk assessment, and long-term financial analysis will be invaluable in assessing and guaranteeing the sustainability of green and catastrophe bonds. Actuaries will contribute to the creation of the financial solutions required to close the gap between ambitious climate targets and the resources needed to accomplish them.
What They Mean for the Future of Pensions and Insurance
Insurance:
The government has set up a consultation as it looks to find ways in which it can make the UK a more attractive place to set up captive insurance companies. The government believes if they can make the UK more attractive to setting up captives that it would “cement the UK’s position as a leading financial services centre.” The government believes changes in regulation “could support the growth of the UK insurance market and, by extension, the broader UK economy, by making the UK insurance market a more attractive hub for businesses seeking efficient risk solutions”.
The London Market Group (LMG, the LMG represents London Insurance businesses) have been advocating for a dedicated and proportionate regulatory regime for captives. The LMG has been discussing the possible structure of the proposed regime with the treasury, the Financial Conduct Authority, and the Prudential Regulation Authority in recent months. In 2021 there were around 7,000 captives with premiums approximately worth $69 billion. Worldwide, premiums are projected to grow to $161 billion by 2030. Recently, other jurisdictions, including France and Italy, have made changes to regulations to attract more captives.
Industry experts have already informed the Government that to make the UK more appealing for captive insurers, the government should:
• Lower capital requirements for captive insurers
• Reduce application and administration fees
• Implement a faster authorisation process; and
• Reduce ongoing reporting requirements, compared to those for insurers and reinsurers.
Additionally, industry professionals have proposed distinguishing between two types of captive insurers:
• Direct-writing captives: A captive insurer that provides insurance for the company.
• Reinsurance captives: A captive insurer that provides reinsurance for the company.
By distinguishing between the two, regulation can align with the different risks posed by each type. The majority of captive insurers are direct-writing captives.
Industry experts have estimated that each captive insurer set up in the UK may contribute over £225,000 a year to the UK economy, based on a 2019 analysis of the economic impact of captives in Vermont. The added contribution is likely to come from the creation of jobs, higher tax revenues, and other wider economic advantages.
Pensions:
Alongside the Chancellor’s speech, the government released the first stage of its pensions review and opened a consultation on the consolidation of DC schemes.
At Mansion House, Reeves spoke about driving growth by channelling more pensions investments into the UK, stating that “for too long, pensions capital has not been used to support the development of British start-ups, scale-ups or to meet our infrastructure needs.”
Government analysis has shown that the percentage of workplace DC assets invested in the UK has decreased "substantially" over the past 10 years, from around 50% to 20%, primarily due to a shift away from UK-listed equities. However, the government has not yet made specific recommendations regarding UK investment in DC schemes.
Reeves announced her plans to consolidate the 86 Local Government Pension Schemes (LGPS) into a handful of "megafunds," and the Treasury has opened a consultation on consolidating DC pension schemes, with the government aiming to set a minimum size for multi-employer DC schemes. Australian pension schemes invest approximately three times more in infrastructure and ten times more in private equity compared to DC schemes in the UK, while Canadian pension schemes invest about four times more in infrastructure. The Chancellor attributes this to the larger size of Australian pension funds, which can take advantage of economies of scale and invest in a wider range of assets
The interim report outlines how the UK could replicate the success of Canadian and Australian megafunds. The Treasury estimates that consolidating LGPS and DC schemes into larger funds could unlock around £80bn of investment in productive areas such as infrastructure and fast-growing companies.
While a specific size threshold has not yet been proposed, the Pensions Minister’s foreword to the consultation suggests that scale benefits begin to materialize for schemes at £25 bn, with "real benefits" from an investment and economic growth perspective coming into effect when funds reach over £50bn. Currently, there are around 60 providers in the workplace DC space, with assets projected to reach £800bn by 2030, meaning a significant reduction in the number of pension funds is likely. The government is also exploring ways to maintain competitiveness, as it could be difficult for new entrants to meet a £25bn threshold.
Following the consultation, the government will determine which measures to incorporate into the Pension Schemes Bill, which is due to be published in Spring 2024.
What Will be the Effect of Weight Loss Drugs?
Obesity is a major public health issue in both the United States and the United Kingdom, with approximately 42% of US adults and 34% of UK adults classified as obese. The increase in obesity rates over the last few decades has led to increasing life and health insurance premiums. In recent years, weight loss drugs (which are commonly referred to as “fat loss jabs”) have emerged as a potential intervention for obesity. Weight loss drugs like Ozempic help to regulate appetite and reduce body weight.
Impact on the Insurance Industry:
Historically, obese adults in the US experienced higher annual medical care costs by $2,505 compared to those with normal weight. With the rise in the use of weight loss injections, now taken by 1 in 8 adults in the US, forecasts suggest that obesity rates may have fallen in 2023 for the first time since records began. The use of these drugs will likely reduce obesity-related health insurance claims, consequently lowering the average cost of health insurance premiums. In the US, a monthly package of Ozempic costs approximately $970 (excluding additional costs). Due to the high monthly costs health insurance companies may be unwilling to include fat loss jabs as a form of obesity treatment in their health insurance policies.
At the European Society of Cardiology Conference in London, scientists announced that weight-loss drugs are expected to revolutionise healthcare, by “slowing down the ageing process” and by allowing people to “live for longer and in better health” Increasing life expectancies will transform the dynamics of both life insurance and pensions. Insurers will need to revise their pricing models and underwriting criteria to reflect longer lifespans, while pension providers will face the challenge of helping individuals save more to ensure sufficient income throughout extended retirement. This shift could drive a greater emphasis on sustainable investment strategies and earlier retirement planning.
Effect on the Economy:
British Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, has stated that “Weight-loss jabs could get people ‘back into work’ to boost the economy.” Health Secretary Wes Streeting has suggested that the jabs could be given to the unemployed to help them return to the workplace. Aside from increasing the labour force’s size, an increased employment rate should lead to more people being enrolled on workplace pension plans, thereby increasing their retirement savings. In the Telegraph Mr Streeting wrote that increasing obesity rates place a significant burden on health services “costing the NHS £11bn a year, even more than smoking, he believes obesity is “holding back our economy”. Obesity-related illnesses are said to cause people to take “an extra four sick days a year on average”. The UK government has announced a £279 million investment from Lilly, the world’s largest pharmaceutical company, which includes plans for a trial in Greater Manchester to assess whether the weight loss drug Mounjaro can help more people return to work and prevent obesity-related illnesses. Previous UK governments have looked into reducing obesity of the unemployed with Westminster Council proposing to cut benefits for obese individuals who did not attend exercise classes in 2012 In 2015, David Cameron supported the idea of reducing benefits for those who refused obesity treatment. Despite the backlash to his proposals, Wes Streeting asserted that his plans were not designed to create a "dystopian future," but rather to improve public health and boost the economy.
Concerns have been raised about the potential for a "dependency culture," where individuals may rely solely on these jabs without adopting healthier lifestyles. Critics argue that while the medication can be effective, it should not replace fundamental lifestyle changes needed to maintain long-term health. Furthermore, the National Pharmacy Association has announced shortages of weight loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, as “weight loss injections have soared in popularity”. This has led to a “shortage for those with obesity, while also fuelling a rise in counterfeit jabs”. Chairman of the pharmaceutical company NPA, Mr Kaye, said that “unauthorised sales ‘could be dangerous’, with there being reports of some people suffering severe nausea, vomiting, headaches etc.
Obesity is seen as a ‘formidable foe’ because there are so many challenges people face when trying to lose weight. However, fat loss jabs present a potential new solution to reducing obesity, with the potential to significantly reduce obesity rates in the US and the UK, removing the requirement for ‘superhuman willpower’ in achieving weight-loss targets.
How Climate Change is Reshaping Insurance: From Risk to Resilience
How climate issues affect insurers
As climate change intensifies, the insurance industry faces unprecedented economic and financial risks. The global temperature in 2023 achieved 1.48°C above the preindustrial level, showing that there is a longterm potential rise in the frequency and severity of natural disasters. From hurricanes to wildfires to floods, these extreme events are directly endangering people’s safety and lives, hence driving up the costs of claims from insurers. To mitigate these risks, insurers are compelled to increase premium values and adjust policies, causing customers now to face higher costs for coverage. As environmental uncertainties grow, the financial burden on both insurers and policyholders pressures actuaries to make responses as soon as possible to maintain the long-term sustainability of affordable insurance in an era of climate volatility
Actuaries’ responses I: Evaluating Investments
Investing in a Time of Climate Change, published by Mercer advised that institutional investors such as pension funds and insurers need to consider both climate-related mitigation and adaptation intensively to develop climate resilience and sustainability in their portfolios. Investment in coal, oil and gas, and electric and gas utilities are more likely to face transition risks. If insurers invest in fossil fuels, they are financing industries that contribute to the risk of extreme climate, which increases the chance of raising their future liabilities. To address the issues, the Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) was established in December 2015 by the Group of 20 (G20) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB). The TCFD helps organisations disclose climate-related financial risks in a standardised manner by providing a framework for reporting on governance, strategy, risk management, and metrics. The framework aims to improve risk management, instil transparency, and make it easier for stakeholders to access and understand relevant information.
Climate-related risks share similarities to risks dealt with by actuaries in insurance companies, so actuaries can play a vital role in managing climate-related risks. Consider general insurance actuaries, they are familiar with the implication of various methods or models to discount cash flows in a given period. This expertise includes accounting for factors such as inflation and volatile markets. When it comes to climate-related issues, the value of assets is likely to decrease when facing climatic challenges. However, actuaries can carry out quantification to determine how much of the declining asset values under unstable climate changes, which highlights their professional skill sets under uncertain scenarios. Particularly life insurance actuaries, as they work to manage longterm risks and models, such as long-term liabilities for a company. Therefore, this expertise allows them to assist in assessing potential climatic risks that could impact companies’ future financial performance. For instance, while carrying out scenario analysis under climate-related risks, the estimated expected value of a portfolio after a given period is mainly based on the upcoming metrics, rather than the historical factors. In fact, non-life insurance actuaries also use their skills in catastrophic analysis to identify the exposed physical risks
Parametric insurance is a non-traditional insurance product that pays out a pre-agreed amount once a predefined event occurs. An insurable trigger event is index-based, which means the event’s parameters must exceed a certain threshold. An event’s parameters could be wind speed (hurricane), earthquake magnitude (earthquake) and other environmental parameters.
In 1817, the Hamburger General-Feuer-Kasse offered landlords to purchase premiums to cover potential losses due to fires It was the earliest example of parametric non-life insurance. Until around the late 1990s, mainstream insurers started to offer more sophisticated and comprehensive parametric products. In 2007, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) introduced the first parametric insurance products specifically for weather-related catastrophes. By combining the risk from multiple countries, each participating nation can secure insurance coverage at a lower cost compared to the private insurance market.
Actuaries’ main role in parametric insurance is related to parametric analysis. They aim to design products that guarantee swift but also accurate payouts for the policyholders upon the occurrence of predefined triggers, which is the primary goal of parametric insurance. To achieve this, specific actuarial models could be used to tackle anomalous weather. For example, Markov Chains are used for temperature modelling based on a set of transition probabilities while Poisson Models are suitable to estimate the probability of events occurring within a period by taking historical parameters into account.
Recent development
The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) acts as an educational resource to guide actuaries, policymakers and the public on climate trends and the likely effects from across the United States, Canada, and other regions in North America. To extend, the Actuaries Climate Risk Index (ACRI) provides insight into the economic consequences of climate risks and their progression over time. In the insurance sector, extreme weather events are particularly costly, especially as the frequency increases The ACI highlights the factors driving these weather extremes, while the ACRI demonstrates the effect of infrastructure development values. For example, even with uniform sea-level rise, coastal regions with different development levels will experience varying impacts.
However, the actuaries are still facing challenges in refining and expanding its application. Key issues include the metrics behind the ACI components, the model with the relationship between the ACI components and losses, the construction of the ACRI and so on. Given our current identified sources of uncertainty, the actuaries have not yet been able to calculate ACRI estimates for losses of life and injuries, nor develop an ACRI measure for Canada, although their plan includes those.
How Might Moving to a Shared Economy Affect the Insurance Industry?
Throughout history, humans have been pooling resources to meet our needs more efficiently. Currently, the shared economy is thriving in areas such as transportation and accommodation, with companies such as Uber and Airbnb disrupting traditional industries and redefining convenience, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness for millions of users. By utilising unused assets, such as a spare bedroom or unused car, these platforms make it simpler for people to increase their part-time income. However, while the sharing economy opens new doors, it also presents unique challenges, particularly for the insurance industry.
Traditional insurance models are designed around assets with predictable usage patterns owned by a single entity, making it difficult to adapt to shared assets' dynamic and multi-user nature. This shift necessitates a rethinking of liability frameworks, policy design, and regulatory compliance. One of the most pressing challenges in the sharing economy is determining liability, given that ownership and use are often shared. For example, if an Uber driver gets into an accident while driving home after work, who is responsible for covering the damages, the driver or the platform? Similarly, if a landlord rents a home through a short-term rental platform in their home and a standard homeowner's policy does not cover these risks, how should liability be divided? For insurers, another major challenge is that most companies participating in the sharing economy are quite young
Traditional insurers operate in a strictly regulated environment, with standardised policies that comply with local, state, or national laws. In some cases, the sharing economy can operate on the fringes of the law. For example, some jurisdictions view ride-hailing services as personal transportation, while others classify them as commercial enterprises, leading to different liabilities for essentially the same behaviour. In the United States, the minimum liability insurance laws for ride-sharing drivers vary by state. In California, ride-sharing platforms like Uber and Lyft must provide up to $1 million in liability insurance during passenger trips, while the limits set by other states may be much lower To adapt to such diverse situations, insurers must develop highly localised policies, which increases their operational costs. Moreover, the speed of updates and iterations across the shared economy often outpaces the ability of regulators to establish effective regulations. Due to the speed at which the shared economy evolves, insurers need to be proactive by continuously reviewing and upgrading their policies in order to keep up with the market trends whilst staying up to date with the changing regulatory environment.
However, in the face of various challenges brought by the sharing economy, insurance companies are not without solutions. Insurers have begun to actively innovate to conduct more business One of the most important innovations is the development of customised policies specifically designed for the sharing economy. For example, Hartford partnered with Uber to provide liability insurance for rideshare drivers, which only activates when they are logged into the app and transporting passengers. When they are acting as private car owners, they will use their personal insurance. This clarifies the allocation of liability in the event of an accident, and this flexible approach ensures that insurance aligns with the activities of drivers at any given time. Another example is in the property-sharing sector, where companies such as Airbnb have introduced embedded insurance products that allow for participation in the ‘Host Protection Insurance’ program when becoming a host, which provides hosts with up to $1 million in liability insurance against risks such as injury to guests or accidental damage to neighbouring properties. These tailored solutions reduce the liability burden on individual hosts and enable seamless participation in the sharing economy
Facing the inconsistency of regulations, insurers are devising strategies to establish partnerships with sharing platforms. Lloyds of London has led the way by collaborating with shared economy platforms and local governments to design adaptable policies that meet varied legal requirements across regions. This cooperative approach not only simplifies compliance but also builds trust between insurers and shared economy businesses. Furthermore, insurers are employing the most advanced computing tools to ensure they can swiftly adapt to changing regulations and enhance their ability to manage risks and prevent financial losses. This proactive use of technology helps reduce costs, ensuring that insurers can quickly respond to legislative changes.
As people increasingly embrace flexible work arrangements, on-demand services, and the sharing of assets, the sharing economy is sure to expand. Insurers are challenged by the rapidly evolving and diverse business models of companies participating in the sharing economy. The shift from static, one-size-fits-all policies to more dynamic, usage-based solutions is only the beginning of this transformation With tailored policies and cutting-edge technology to address liability and regulatory challenges, insurers are redefining their role in this new environment. The sharing economy may be disruptive, but it also represents a tremendous opportunity for insurers willing to adapt to get ahead in the age of collaboration and connectivity.
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Produced by:
LSE Actuarial Society Marketing Division
Ethan Lam
Angelina
Chia Chian Yung
Nila Jeyaram
LSE Actuarial Society Research Division
Joshua Lufakalyo
Beatrix Quake
Shishir Bhatt
Ze Kai Ng
Zhengxian Yi
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