Sub-module 4
Critical megatrends for national security
Module: Environment and Sustainability related Megatrends and Risks
The objectives of this submodule •
To discuss and to analyze the key megatrends related to national security • To describe the key megatrends and their potential impact • To analyze the evidence (examples) of those megatrends
Control questions • Before you start this sub-module, please answer to yourself the following questions: i) Think about the key areas related to national security? ii) Can you prioritize those areas? What could be the criteria for prioritization?
Key megatrends related to national security
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds a publication of the National Intelligence Council
‌ we do not seek to predict the Future - which would be an impossible feat - but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications ‌
Global megatrends 2030 Megatrends Individual Empowerment Diffusion of Power Demographic Patterns Food, Water, Energy Nexus
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Global megatrends 2030 Megatrends 2030 Individual Empowerment
Individual empowerment will accelerate owing to poverty reduction, growth of the global middle class, greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communications and manufacturing technologies, and health-care advances.
GL: let’s discuss not only the positive impact of this megatrend
but also associated risks and challenges . 8
Global megatrends 2030 Megatrends Diffusion of There will not be any hegemonic Power power. Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world. GL: how this trend will affect your country? What is the possible trajectory for our country?
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Global megatrends 2030 Megatrends Demogra- The demographic arc of instability will phic narrow. Economic growth might Patterns decline in “aging” countries. Sixty percent of the world’s population will live in urbanized areas; migration will increase. GL: how this trend will affect your country? What is the possible trajectory for our country? What is the possible trajectory for our country? How many cities we will have in our country?
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Global megatrends 2030 Megatrends Food, Water, Demand for these resources will Energy grow substantially owing to an Nexus increase in the global population. Tackling problems pertaining to one commodity will be linked to supply and demand for the others. GL: how this trend will affect your country? What elements of this nexus are crucial for our country?
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Tentions Gamechangers CrisisWill global volatility and imbalances Prone among players with different economic Global interests result in collapse? Economy Or will greater multipolarity lead to increased resiliency in the global economic order? GL: what is the position of your country?
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Tentions Gamechangers Governance Gap
Will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change instead of being overwhelmed by it?
GL: what is the position of your country? Ar we willing to adapt to changes or to resist?
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Tentions Gamechangers Potential Will rapid changes and shifts in power for lead to more intrastate and interstate Increased conflicts? Conflict
GL: what is the role of small countries in case of interstate conflicts? Can we foresee intrastate conflicts in our country? What are the possible roots of those conflicts?? 14
Tentions Gamechangers Wider Will regional instability, especially in the Scope of Middle East and South Asia, spill over Regional and create global insecurity? Instability
GL: what is the role of small countries in case of global insecurity?
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Tentions Gamechangers Impact of New Technologies
Will technological breakthroughs be developed in time to boost economic productivity and solve the problems caused by a growing world population, rapid urbanization, and climate change?
GL: economic productivity as the solution? Is that feasible and desirable for your country?
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Tentions Gamechangers Role of Will the US be able to work with new the partners to reinvent the international United system? States
GL: how can we assist the US?
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Trends (not megatrends) Tectonic Shifts between now and 2030 Growth of the Global Middle Class Wider Access to Lethal and Disruptive Technologies Definitive Shift of Economic Power to the East and South Unprecedented and Widespread Aging Urbanization Food and Water Pressures US Energy Independence 18
Futures (“alternative worlds”) Potential worlds
Stalled Engines
Fusion
Gini-Out-of-theBottle
Nonstate World
In the most plausible worst-case scenario, the risks of interstate conflict increase. The US draws inward and globalization stalls. In the most plausible best-case outcome, China and the US collaborate on a range of issues, leading to broader global cooperation. Inequalities explode as some countries become big winners and others fail. Inequalities within countries increase social tensions. Without completely disengaging, the US is no longer the “global policeman.” Driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges. 19
Conclusions • In order to follow the path of most desirable future (‘’The Fusion”) the world community has to
invest resources and time for this • There is always a risk to lose the desirable trajectory; so the risk management becomes crucial.
Control questions • After you completed this module, please answer to yourself the following questions: i) Think about the algorithm of designing the future (alternative worlds) list. What are the key steps in designing those futures?
Thank you and good luck!
Instructor of the module: Ass. Prof. Gintaras Labutis Military Academy of Lithuania