Subm 2 eu energy strategy and energy security strategies gl risk net v1 20170228

Sub-module

EU Energy and energy security strategies

Module: Energy Security and policies

The objectives of this submodule •

To analyze EU long term strategies and to explore the path towards achieving key energy objectives • To explore EU energy security strategy and the roadmaps towards the required level of energy security.

EU Energy security strategies

EU Energy Strategy

• Secure, • Competitive, and • Sustainable energy

3 EU energy strategies on the path reflecting 3 stages • 2020 Energy Strategy: the EU has set 20% targets for renewable energy, greenhouse gas reduction, and energy efficiency for 2020. • 2030 Energy Strategy: the 2030 Energy Strategy proposes targets for renewables, energy efficiency, and greenhouse gas reductions for the period between 2020 and 2030. • 2050 Energy strategy: EU strategy for the transition to a competitive, secure and sustainable energy system by 2050 and for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80%.

Energy and energy security alignment • Energy Security Strategy: The EU Energy Security Strategy aims to ensure a reliable supply of energy for EU countries.

EU energy policies are driven by three main goals • To secure energy supplies to ensure the reliable provision of energy whenever and wherever it is needed • To guarantee that energy providers operate in a competitive environment that ensures affordable prices for homes, businesses, and industries • To make the energy consumption to be sustainable, through the lowering of greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, and fossil fuel dependence.

Why those goals?

• These goals will help the EU to tackle its most significant energy challenges.

• Among these important and challenging challenging are: • EU dependence on energy imports is a particularly pressing issue, with the EU currently importing over half its energy at a cost of €350 billion per year.

• Global demand and the scarcity of fuels like crude oil, which contribute to higher prices. In addition, the continued use of fossil fuels in Europe is • A cause of global warming and pollution.

Key policy areas to achieve those goals • A European Energy Union that will ensure secure, affordable and clean energy for EU citizens and businesses by allowing a free flow of energy across national borders within the EU, and bringing new technologies and renewed infrastructure to cut household bills, create jobs and boost growth. • A European Energy Security Strategy which presents short and long-term measures to shore up the EU's security of supply.

Key policy areas to achieve those goals • A resilient and integrated energy market across the EU the internal energy market. To this end, new pipelines and power lines are being built to develop EU-widenetworks for gas and electricity, and common rules are being designed to increase competition between suppliers and to promote consumer choice.

• Boosting the EU's domestic production of energy, including the development of renewable energy sources.

• Promoting energy efficiency.

• Safety across the EU's energy sectors with strict rules on issues such as the disposal of nuclear waste and the operation of offshore oil and gas platforms.

Energy targets • To pursue these goals within a coherent long-term strategy, the EU has formulated targets for: • 2020, • 2030, and • 2050.

The 2020 Energy Strategy (between 2010 and 2020) • reduce greenhouse gases by at least 20% • increase the share of renewable energy in the EU's energy mix to at least 20% of consumption • improve energy efficiency by at least 20%

The 2030 Energy Strategy objectives • a binding EU target of at least a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 • a binding target of at least 27% of renewable energy in the EU • an energy efficiency increase of at least 27%, to be reviewed by 2020 with the potential to raise the target to 30% by 2030 • the completion of the internal energy market by reaching an electricity interconnection target of 15% between EU countries by 2030, and pushing forward important infrastructure projects.

The draft of legislative proposals for EU MS To achieve those targets In 2016, the Commission released a package of draft legislative proposals.

The measures include draft proposals on: • on electricity market design, • renewables, • and energy efficiency.

Road to 2050 • The EU aims to achieve an 80% to 95% reduction in greenhouse gases compared to 1990 levels by 2050.

• The roadmap for 2025 is designed and proposed.

• The roadmap covers and analyses a series of scenarios on how to meet this target.

Roadmap 2050 scenarios Energy projections The EU produces market projection reports for 2030 and 2050 based on current trends and policies.

• They include information on possible • energy demand, • energy prices, greenhouse gas emissions • and other potential developments.

Energy Roadmap 2050 • explores the challenges posed by delivering the EU's decarbonisation objective while at the same time ensuring security of energy supply and competitiveness.

• Forecasting the long-term future is not possible.

• The scenarios in Energy Roadmap 2050 explore routes towards decarbonisation of the energy system.

• All imply major changes in, for example, carbon prices, technology and networks.

• The scenario analysis undertaken is of an illustrative nature, examining the impacts, challenges and opportunities of possible ways of modernizing the energy system.

Key scenarios: decorbanization is possible

Key scenarios: Increasing role of electricity

Key scenarios: Energy savings Graph 3: Gross energy consumption - range in current trend (REF/CPI) and decarbonisation scenarios (in Mtoe)

2000 1900 1800 1700

Reference/CPI: effects of additional policies and updated assumptions

1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100

Decarbonisation cases: effects from different policy focus / technology availability

1000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Key scenarios: RES • The share of renewable energy (RES) rises substantially in all scenarios, achieving at least 55% in gross final energy consumption in 2050, up 45 percentage points from today's level at around 10%. • The share of RES in electricity consumption reaches 64% in a High Energy Efficiency scenario and 97% in a High Renewables Scenario that includes significant electricity storage to accommodate varying RES supply even at times of low demand.

Challenges and opportunities for moving into 2050 • Energy saving (energy efficiency) and managing demand. The prime focus should remain on energy efficiency. Improving energy efficiency is a priority in all decarbonisation scenarios. • Switching to renewable energy sources. The analysis of all scenarios shows that the biggest share of energy supply technologies in 2050 comes from renewables • Gas plays and will play a key role in the transition.

Substitution of coal (and oil) with gas in the short to medium term could help to reduce emissions with existing technologies until at least 2030 or 2035).

Challenges and opportunities for moving into 2050 • Transforming other fossil fuels. With the development of CCS and other emerging clean technologies, coal could continue to play an important role in a sustainable and secure supply in the future. Maintaining a foothold in the global oil market and keeping a European presence in domestic refining is vital. • Nuclear energy as an important contributor. Nuclear energy is a decarbonisation option providing today most of the low-carbon electricity consumed in the EU. Some Member States consider the risks related to nuclear energy as unacceptable.

Challenges and opportunities for moving into 2050 • Smart technology, storage and alternative fuels.

Technology is an essential part of the solution to the decarbonisation challenge. Technological progress can yield significant cost reductions and economic benefits. Much depends on the acceleration of technological development.

Another area of special importance is the shift towards alternative fuels, including electric vehicles.

The progress: The EU has already made important

progress towards meeting its targets: • According to the first state of the Energy Union report (2015) EU cut greenhouse gas emissions by 18% and is well on track to meet the 2020 target • In 2014, the projected share of renewable energy in the gross final energy consumption is 15.3%, up from 8.5% in 2005. It is expected to reach the 20% target by 2020.

• Energy efficiency is predicted to improve by 18% to 19% by 2020 – barely missing the 20% target. However, if countries implement all the necessary EU legislation, the target should be reached.

Sub-module control questions After you completed studying this sub-module, please answer to yourself the following questions: i) How those EU strategies impact on your country’s energy strategy?

Thank you and good luck!

Instructor of the module: Ass. Prof. Gintaras Labutis Military Academy of Lithuania