Regd. No. MH/MR/South-160/2012-14 RNI Regn. No. 43675/1985 MUMBAI WEDNESDAY, JUNE 11, 2014 32 PAGES `3 Website: www.afternoondc.in
Aft er oo DESPATCH & COURIER
SOCCER PUNDITS ECONOMISTS TURN
A Bloomberg News survey of 171 economists from 139 companies across 52 countries has confidently predicted that the host country Brazil would win the ‘2014 FIFA World Cup’. Financial giants Goldman Sachs, PwC, Danske Bank and Unicredit also predict Brazil. But there are some dissidents! By Deepak Sahijwala
T
he football frenzy begins tomorrow. And the question is: who will lift the golden trophy, the 2014 FIFA World Cup, at Rio de Janeiro's Maracana stadium on July 13. And while sports enthusiasts and professionals, including speculators make predictions , this time an odd group has got into the play. Economists and analysts, who would otherwise be analyzing equities and currencies to pick winners, have now got into predicting which country will pick the cup. With their fancy statistical models, number crunching and magical black-boxes, they have come to some equally fancy predictions. For example a Bloomberg News survey of 171 economists from 139 companies across 52 countries has confidently predicted that the host country Brazil would beat Germany to win the 2014 World Cup, eclipsing Germany and Argentina as the top choice . The survey also expects the Brazilian team to score the maximum number of goals, outperforming Argentina and defending champions Spain. The predictions for winner in the Bloomberg Survey centered almost exclusively on Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Spain. Of the 171 responses,
only six economists diverged from that trend, with three choosing Portugal, two backing Italy and one Uruguay. However, going against the consensus, Deutsche Bank AG analysts Bilal Hafeez and Henrik Gullberg said in a report that England is their pick. The bank's foreign exchange analysts have developed a computer model that has picked England to be the winner while disparaging other forecasts as off-targets. '“England are among the best teams according to our static model,” the analysts said in a report, obtained by The Guardian. However, the model, also seems to have hedged its bet by arguing that the tournament could just as well go Brazil's way. Economists at Goldman Sachs disagree with the Deutsche Bank analysts and foresee Brazil beating Argentina 3-1 in the final, while predicting that England will finish a lowly third in Group D. Then there are number-crunchers from Danske Bank and Unicredit who also predict Brazil will beat Argentina in the final. Similarly, PwC has also made Brazil the front runner followed by Spain, Argentina and Germany. A month from now, we will know whether the economists scored over experts in the beautiful game. So will the economists prove right this time ? July 13 will tell.
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