$4.95 POST APPROVED PP255003/06906
ISSUE 7.08 May 2010
Credit shortfall to impact non-banks
Scott Manning
Opportunity may exist for non-banks
Is there a silver lining to the cloud of predictions that the major banks will be forced to cut back on their funding of mortgages in the coming years? For brokers and non-bank lenders, the answer may well be yes. The bi-annual Fujitsu/JP Morgan report predicted that
demand for home lending may outstrip supply as the major banks ration credit after rapid market share and balance sheet increases in the past couple of years. JP Morgan banking analyst Scott Manning said that it was likely that banks would be content with the size of their current housing portfolio and turn their attention to optimising profitability rather than chase further market share gains.
“While demand for credit is unlikely to abate, the major banks will look to achieve the best possible returns on the increasingly scarce wholesale funding they are able to secure,” Manning said. Thus, non-bank lenders can regain their place of prominence. They have always been a broker’s best friend – having no other distribution network to rely on has meant that brokers will always come first in their eyes. The predictions that major banks will reign in home lending come at the same time that RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle is forecasting an economic climate that would encourage the reemergence of non-bank lenders. “I suspect that sector will start to pick up as the economy improves,” Debelle told the Senate Economics Reference Committee public hearing on the access of small business to finance. “I think we’d see increased competition, in large part because the economy is growing pretty well and has some pretty good opportunities.” If the economy continues to grow as the RBA expects, Debelle said that there was a chance that lending criteria would ease – allowing more people the chance of homeownership. Manning expects the banks to restrict their home lending to the high-end, high-profit borrowers who have low LVRs and strong credit histories. If so, it could in fact help brokers, who have an obligation to provide clients with a range of home loan options.
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