Planetary Crisis

Planetary Crisis Presentation at: “Maputo Meeting on Real Solutions to the Climate Crisis�, Mozambique

By Meenakshi Raman

Take-Aways from IPCC Evidence of climate change is ‘unequivocal’ Human influence is ‘extremely likely’ to be the dominant cause Impacts on food production (crops & fish), of extreme weather, and on health are already being experienced

We are on track for 4.8-7.8°C of warming by 2100 and as much as 2°C could be very dangerous

Estimated global emission levels in 2020 (based on Cancun) are ‘not consistent’ with effective trajectories for 2C.

Even lower levels of warming threaten the right to food We should set a global limit on climate pollution or an ‘emissions budget’

Transformation of our energy system is essential to meet the budget False ‘solutions’ are a risk

Impacts Now ď‚— Changing rainfall patterns and melting snow and glaciers affecting water resources and quality;

ď‚— Higher temperatures having widespread negative impacts on crop yields and farming, in particular steady declines in maize and wheat yields in temperate regions;

ď‚— That climate-related threats are a particular burden to people living in poverty

Impacts in Africa  Land regions across Africa have warmed. Future impacts to be substantial.

 Mean annual temperature likely to exceed 2°C  Precipitation is likely to reduce over Northern Africa and Southwestern parts of South Africa by the end of the 21st century

 Climate change will amplify existing stress on water availability  Climate change will interact with non-climate drivers and stressors to exacerbate vulnerability of agricultural systems, particularly in semi-arid areas

 Climate change may increase the burden of a range of climate-relevant health outcomes

 Evolving institutional frameworks cannot yet effectively coordinate the range of adaptation initiatives being implemented

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Projected Warming in Africa

2°C is NOT Safe  Forests are even more sensitive to climate change than previously thought

 Local temperature increases of 1°C or more above preindustrial levels are projected to negatively impact yields for the major crops (wheat, rice, and maize)

 Half of the wheat-growing area of the Indo-Gangetic Plains could become significantly stressed by the 2050s.

 Price rises, which may be induced by climate shocks, have a disproportionate impact on the welfare of the poor in rural areas, such as female-headed households

More hunger and poverty?  “It is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes and that it is very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher frequency and duration”

 Even if we mange to reduce our emissions in line with a 2C or 1.5C objective, glacier volume is projected to decrease by 15-55% with huge consequences for drinking water.

 Poverty reduction will be ‘more difficult, further erode food security and prolong existing poverty traps.’

Setting a limit on pollution

 The IPCC report reveals that between 1750 and 2011, cumulative anthropogenic (humaninduced) carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere were 2,040 giga tonnes (one giga tonne, or Gton, equals a billion tonnes).

 About 40% of these emissions, or 880 Gton of CO2, have remained in the atmosphere.

The rest was stored on land (in plants and soils) and in the ocean. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the CO2, causing acidification of the seas

 IPCC says total CO2 emissions since 1870 have to remain below about 2900 Gton, if global warming is to be kept at less than 2°C (relative to the period 1861-1880) with a probability of over 66%. However, about 1,900 Gton of CO2 has already been emitted by 2011. There is “space” for only 1,000 Gton of CO2 to be emitted from now to the future

 Thus, in 20 to 25 years, if the current rate of emissions continues, the ability of the Earth to absorb the gases (within the limit of keeping warming below 2°C) would have been exhausted.

Importance of Justice  The IPCC finds that both ‘mitigation and adaptation raise issues of equity, justice, and fairness and have implications for sustainable development and poverty eradication.’

Sharing remaining carbon space

Transformation of Energy Systems  Fossil fuel combustion contributed 78% of the total greenhouse gas emissions increase from 1970-2010

 About 1.3 billion people worldwide do not have access to electricity and about 3 billion are dependent on traditional solid fuels for cooking and heating with severe adverse effects on health, ecosystems and development

 De-carbonizing electricity generation is a key component of cost effective mitigation strategies

 Growing number of RE technologies have reached maturity to enable deployment at ‘significant scale’

 The reduction of subsidies to fossil fuels can achieve emission reductions

 Behaviour, lifestyle and culture have a considerable influence

False ‘Solutions’  Geo-engineering –  Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technology “the availability and scale of CDR technologies is uncertain” and that CDR technologies are “associated with challenges and risks”\  Solar radiation management (SRM) technologies aim to counteract the warming effect of solar radiation in the atmosphere by reflecting sunlight back into space—proposed projects include spraying sulp[hur particles into the upper atmosphere and artificially whitening clouds..

 Nuclear - ‘major barriers’ to this technology including: ‘operational safety and uranium mining risks, financial and regulatory risks, unresolved waste management issues, nuclear weapon proliferation concerns, and adverse public opinon’

At the UNFCCC

At the UNFCCC  ‘Durban deal’ = 2nd Kyoto Period; Pre-2020 Action; New Agreement  Doha outcome: weak 2nd Kyoto Period (still not ratified) with ‘review’ in 2014  Ongoing struggle about shape, form, content of new agreement. Clash of paradigms – from top-down science and equity based targets to pledge and review according to every countries “national circumstances”

 IPCC finds that cap and trade carbon trading schemes have ‘limited environmental effect’ and that the CDM has concerns about ‘emissions leakage and whether the reductions are truly “additional”’

 Draft proposals for the new agreement spanning “no markets” to “new market mechanisms”

 Push to include land (forest and agriculture) into carbon trading.

Who are the culprits

Equity

Equity

Equity

Equity

Conclusions Evidence of climate change is ‘unequivocal’ Human influence is ‘extremely likely’ to be the dominant cause Impacts on food production (crops & fish), of extreme weather, and on health are already being experienced

We are on track for 4.8-7.8C of warming by 2100 and as much as 2C could be very dangerous

Estimated global emission levels in 2020 (based on Cancun) are ‘not consistent’ with effective trajectories for 2C.

Even lower levels of warming threaten the right to food We should set a global limit on climate pollution or an ‘emissions budget’ and share that fairly between countries.

Transformation of our energy system is essential to meet the budget Need for significant transfer of financial resources and technology transfer to developing countries

Repayment of climate debt Reparations for loss and damage False ‘solutions’ should be stopped – real solutions should be advanced.