March 2010 Altos Research Real-Time Housing Market Update by John Reinwald

ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: March 2010: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Real-Time Housing Market Update Published by Altos Research & Real IQ March 17, 2010

Highlights 

The Altos 10-City Composite presents the most current perspective on housing market conditions across the country. The Composite median price fell by 1.3% in February 2010.

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The Altos Research 10-City Composite Price Index was down by 1.3% in February and 3.0% during the most recent three-month period. The Index has now shown sequential monthly declines for the past seven months. Though readings of weekly price changes have shown modest expected seasonal increases in the past 7 weeks, indicating that the headline price number will tick up in the coming months. Asking prices fell in all 26 markets. The previously strong California markets all showed steep price declines during February. The largest monthly asking price drops occurred in San Francisco with prices falling 4.4%, followed closely by San Diego down 4.2%. San Francisco experienced the steepest quarterly drop in asking prices – down 10.9%. Listed property inventory jumped in 24 of 26 markets tracked. The inventory increases were largest in San Jose, San Francisco, Austin and San Diego. The big inventory rise is seasonally expected after the low point at the first of the year. Nationally inventory is 10% lower than last year at this time, though climbing rapidly going into the spring. All markets except San Francisco and San Jose had a median days-on-market of 100 or more in February. Chicago edged out Miami as the market experiencing the slowest turnover with a median of 220 days-on-market or more than 7 months.

February Home Price Trends The 10-City Composite Index was down 1.3% during February and 3.0% for the most recent three-month period. The Composite Index effectively bottomed out in January 2009 at $470,017, climbed throughout the first half of 2009 to $509,030 in July before returning to a gradual downward trend. The Index stood at $479,781 as of February 2010 reflecting a decline of 5.75% since its 2009 summer high. Early indicators of pricing indicate that monthly price declines will be somewhat abated by the normal spring selling season. The market has been heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s mortgage-backed securities purchase program which has kept mortgage rates historically low and by the federal government’s home buyer tax credit. Both programs are scheduled to end during the next several months. The Index may retrace its 2009 lows before it turns up in the seasonally strong spring and summer months. Listing prices fell in all 26 major markets during February. The largest monthly decline occurred in San Francisco with prices falling 4.4% during February and 10.9% for the most recent three-month period. Prices fell by more than two percent during the month in 8 other markets. Miami experienced the smallest decline with prices decreasing by 0.2%.

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ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: March 2010: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Altos Research Price Composite December 2009

MSA

10 City Composite

494,426

January 2010

February 2010

% Change Last Month

% Change Over 3 Months

$ 486,259

479,781

-1.3%

-3.0%

San Francisco

799,017

$ 744,505

712,048

-4.4%

-10.9%

San Diego

801,627

$ 758,462

726,408

-4.2%

-9.4%

Denver

380,403

$ 366,238

355,361

-3.0%

-6.6%

Phoenix

303,165

$ 295,465

288,184

-2.5%

-4.9%

Tampa

219,715

$ 216,296

210,973

-2.5%

-4.0%

San Jose

793,752

$ 758,610

740,304

-2.4%

-6.7%

New York

638,082

$ 620,268

605,947

-2.3%

-5.0%

Salt Lake City

358,811

$ 351,884

344,798

-2.0%

-3.9%

Seattle

400,184

$ 390,003

382,374

-2.0%

-4.5%

Detroit

153,867

$ 150,342

147,456

-1.9%

-4.2%

Dallas

242,198

$ 236,574

232,147

-1.9%

-4.1%

Minneapolis

293,221

$ 287,057

281,775

-1.8%

-3.9%

Portland

323,884

$ 315,362

309,898

-1.7%

-4.3%

Charlotte

248,543

$ 241,277

237,368

-1.6%

-4.5%

Austin

294,467

$ 287,977

284,017

-1.4%

-3.5%

Philadelphia

346,994

$ 341,991

337,360

-1.4%

-2.8%

Atlanta

225,050

$ 218,873

216,042

-1.3%

-4.0%

Indianapolis

169,500

$ 167,331

165,306

-1.2%

-2.5%

Chicago

316,232

$ 310,508

306,972

-1.1%

-2.9%

Washington, DC

445,289

$ 436,260

431,423

-1.1%

-3.1%

Boston

486,815

$ 479,726

475,711

-0.8%

-2.3%

Houston

232,544

$ 229,622

227,730

-0.8%

-2.1%

Las Vegas

166,338

$ 164,513

163,315

-0.7%

-1.8%

Los Angeles

712,964

$ 707,355

702,274

-0.7%

-1.5%

Cleveland

169,719

$ 167,027

166,084

-0.6%

-2.1%

Miami

494,992

$ 501,523

500,436

-0.2%

1.1%

ÂŠ 2010 Altos Research http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/features/NationalReport.page

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ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: March 2010: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

February Housing Supply Trends During February, the inventory of properties listed for sale ballooned by 8.3% across the 10City Composite Index markets. Inventory increased in 24 of 26 markets, was flat in Detroit and decreased slightly in Salt Lake City. Nationally inventory is 10% lower than this time in 2009, though growing rapidly into the spring. Inventory increased at the fastest rate in San Jose and San Francisco, up 18.6% and 15.8% respectively. The Bay Area markets and San Diego were among the strongest during the summer of 2009 but have seen sharp price declines and inventory increases recently.

Listing Inventory % Change Last Month

% Change Over 3 Months

MSA

December 2009

January 2010

February 2010

10 City Composite

233,417

233,920

253,265

8.3%

8.5%

San Jose

3,151

3,342

3,962

18.6%

25.7%

San Francisco

5,951

6,331

7,333

15.8%

23.2%

Austin

9,133

9,040

10,134

12.1%

11.0%

San Diego

7,094

7,364

8,251

12.0%

16.3%

Denver

11,174

11,448

12,769

11.5%

14.3%

Los Angeles

25,739

26,921

29,854

10.9%

16.0%

Boston

12,221

12,077

13,377

10.8%

9.5%

Chicago

49,867

49,491

54,798

10.7%

9.9%

Minneapolis

13,946

13,843

15,253

10.2%

9.4%

Seattle

19,792

19,924

21,575

8.3%

9.0%

Tampa

18,879

18,893

20,328

7.6%

7.7%

Phoenix

27,599

28,627

30,753

7.4%

11.4%

Portland

12,129

12,161

13,040

7.2%

7.5%

Miami

28,509

28,371

30,246

6.6%

6.1%

New York

55,060

54,867

58,255

6.2%

5.8%

Dallas

28,442

29,309

31,042

5.9%

9.1%

Atlanta

35,483

34,676

36,687

5.8%

3.4%

Cleveland

12,073

12,080

12,743

5.5%

Indianapolis

11,897

12,131

12,794

5.5%

7.5%

Las Vegas

19,662

19,258

20,003

3.9%

1.7%

Houston

28,491

30,317

31,433

3.7%

10.3%

Philadelphia

22,279

22,276

23,066

3.5%

ÂŠ 2010 Altos Research http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/features/NationalReport.page

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ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: March 2010: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Washington, DC

17,415

17,028

17,561

3.1%

0.8%

Charlotte

14,008

14,025

14,460

3.1%

3.2%

Detroit

27,647

27,026

27,023

0.0%

-2.3%

Salt Lake City

6,661

7,341

7,184

-2.1%

7.9%

February Housing Market Demand Trends During February every market except San Jose and San Francisco had a median days-onmarket of 100 or more. Chicago edged out Miami as the market experiencing the slowest turnover with a median of 220 days-on-market or more than 7 months versus 219 in Miami. San Francisco experienced the fastest rate of inventory turnover at a median of 86 days-onmarket.

Average Days on Market

MSA

December 2009

January 2010

February 2010

% Change Last Month

% Change Over 3 Months

10 City Composite

166

172

166

-3.7%

-0.3%

Chicago

211

220

-0.4%

4.3%

Miami

247

244

219

-10.2%

-11.3%

Charlotte

201

206

203

-1.1%

1.2%

Atlanta

214

222

191

-13.9%

-11.0%

Cleveland

175

185

188

1.5%

7.0%

Detroit

190

189

187

-1.1%

-1.3%

Washington, DC

174

181

182

0.4%

4.4%

Philadelphia

172

175

179

1.8%

4.1%

Indianapolis

154

161

162

0.1%

5.0%

Minneapolis

198

162

156

-3.5%

-21.2%

Denver

187

164

155

-5.1%

-16.8%

Seattle

198

158

155

-2.0%

-22.0%

Tampa

155

154

147

-4.5%

-5.1%

New York

132

152

145

-4.6%

9.8%

Portland

141

142

145

2.1%

2.9%

Austin

136

142

138

-2.6%

2.1%

Phoenix

146

145

138

-4.8%

-5.1%

ÂŠ 2010 Altos Research http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/features/NationalReport.page

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ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: March 2010: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Dallas

154

169

137

-18.8%

-11.2%

Las Vegas

129

134

136

1.7%

5.4%

Salt Lake City

122

132

134

1.6%

9.7%

Houston

135

137

131

-4.0%

-2.9%

Boston

130

135

130

-3.6%

-0.1%

Los Angeles

126

119

-5.0%

-5.2%

San Diego

111

110

108

-1.3%

-2.0%

San Jose

110

102

-3.2%

-10.4%

San Francisco

-8.6%

-12.7%

Methodology The Altos Research—Real IQ Real-Time Housing Report provides data on current housing market conditions in major markets around the country. Unlike other data sources that lag several months behind the market, this report summarizes metrics associated with active residential property listings to present the only real-time view of the housing market. Each ―market‖ measured in this report is equivalent to the Census Bureau's Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) dominated by the city listed. Properties analyzed in this data included repeat sales of single-family homes. Condominiums and town homes are not included in the data set. New construction is not included in the data set. The Altos Research Price Index is a statistical compilation of property prices highly correlated with the S&P/Case Shiller® Index. The Altos 10-City Composite is based on single family homes in Boston, Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Miami, Las Vegas , Washington D.C, Denver. For more information visit AltosResearch.com.

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ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: March 2010: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

About Altos Research Altos Research LLC pioneered real-time real estate market research. Founded in 2005, the company's information products serve investors, derivatives traders, and thousands of real estate professionals. The company publishes analytical reports and data feeds each week for thousands of zip codes including all 20 S&P/Case Shiller markets summarized in this report. The Altos Research—Real IQ Housing Market Update is jointly produced by Real IQ™ and Altos Research. If you have any questions regarding this report, please contact Michael Simonsen. Michael Simonsen CEO & Co-Founder Altos Research LLC Tel: 888-819-7775 Web: www.altosresearch.com Email: mike@altosresearch.com

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