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Roger Boyd
March 28, 2025
It is now being reported that Trump is “very angry” with Putin over the ceasefire negotiations, one where he has offered Russia next to nothing. The Russian leadership very much understands the untrustworthiness of the US and sees a ceasefire as the end result of the extensive negotiations and agreements required to meet Russia’s security needs. Trump is trying to put the cart before the horse, seeming to believe that he is such a superb negotiator that he can get the Russians to act against their own interests. Utterly delusional.
The Trump administration seems to sincerely believe that it can make a deal on Ukraine that will not meet Russia’s repeatedly stated security needs, and that such a settlement will facilitate Russia’s acquiescence to a Western military attack on Iran and/or somewhat of a distancing of Russia from China. Even writing the above words makes plain the utter delusional state of anyone that believes such nonsense. But it does seem that the US administration is so deluded, a condition pointed to by the US extreme haste and lack of diplomatic professionalism and competence in its negotiations with Russia over Ukraine.
Instead of simply dumping Ukraine and pointing to the Ukraine War as a “Biden problem” that the US needs to extricate itself from, the administration is digging itself deeper and deeper into the conflict in a vain attempt to reach an agreement with Russia that will heavily neutralize it as part of the Russia-Iran-China pole of resistance against the US Empire. Then the administration can get on with its decades-old wish to crush independent Iran, itself a delusional fever dream, to gain both Middle East supremacy and fulfil the desires of the supremacist Zionists.
That Iran is a vast and extremely mountainous nation with its capital far in the mountainous north (vs. the much smaller Iraq with its major cities sitting in the southern plain) with a population of 91 million (vs. Iraq’s 17 million) and extensive indigenous military industrial capabilities (vs. an Iraq destroyed by two decades of war and sanctions) seems to not penetrate the thick skulls of the US administration. Also that unlike in the two wars against Iraq, neighbouring countries such as Saudi Arabia will in no way provide bases from which to attack Iran and that unlike Iraq with its primitive Scuds, Iran has an extensive array of leading edge missiles. None of this seems to matter, even the ability of Iran to utterly destroy the oil and gas output of the region (creating a global economic depression) together with US bases and much of Israel. Neither the predictable colossal shock of the world at such naked US/Western aggression, and the utter destruction of what remains of US soft power and legitimacy; especially among the Muslim nations of Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and the Stans.
Would Russia and China sit idly by while the US starts to pick off their resistance one nation at a time? Of course not. China with its massive strategic oil reserves, its ability to accelerate even more its move away from imported-oil driven transport, and its close relationship with Russia and the Stans, will weather the storm better than most. Of course, Russia will benefit massively from the huge run up in oil prices. Both will take actions to support Iran and to punish the US, with Russia working to replenish Iran’s military inventories and basic supplies while China is in a position to cripple the US (including its MIC) through the limitation of critical exports. Central Asia and ASEAN, and possibly even India, would also come closer to Russia and China as they distance themselves more from the US.
A US large-scale attack upon Iran may very well turn out to be the equivalent of the Athenian attack upon Sicily, one that sapped its strength and hastened its fall. For Israel it may very well be the equivalent of a “bridge too far” as utter chaos and destruction is wreaked within and its Big Brother protector is shown to be much weaker than advertised.
Russia may end up saving the US administration from its own delusions by refusing to accept the terms on offer with respect to the war in Ukraine and continue fighting until Ukraine collapses. A collapse which would free up much of the now battle-hardened Russian military to support Iran.
The alliance between Russia and China is not one that can be undermined by a US and West that has repeatedly displayed its dogged determination to subjugate both rather than deal with them in good faith and on equal terms. Any parallels drawn between Nixon’s 1972 opening to China and the current period are utterly destroyed by the vast differences between that period and the present. All the while, China is removing its dependencies upon Western technological goods and in many areas leaving the West in its technological advancing dust. Without such dependencies, together its its massive strategic oil reserves, access to the vast oil and gas resources of Russia and Central Asia and its ever increasing electric transport footprint, China will be able to easily withstand whatever sanctions and export controls are thrown at it. Even an energy embargo, or attempt to crush China’s economy through exceptionally high oil prices will only boomerang back on the West while greatly strengthening Russia. The shoe is rather on the other foot with China’s ability to cripple the West through selective export restrictions while residing within the EurAsian continent surrounded by allies and neutrals.
Any outright triggering of a war by the US over Taiwan could also easily become another Sicilian Expedition for the US, as its economy (and MIC) become crippled without critical imports, sanctions and attempts at a blockade fail, and the vaunted US navy and armed services suffer a humiliating defeat. The only real risk to China would be that the US administration would react with a nuclear murder suicide.