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Climate Change Forever
Dr. Willie Soon
October 1, 2025
AT A GLANCE
• The world’s climate has always been in a perpetual state of flux.
• Carbon dioxide is the gas of life.
• The alarmism against CO2 is not based on science.
• It is time to stop vilifying CO2.
Earth’s weather and climate have always been in a perpetual state of flux. These changes are driven by shifting ratios of land and sea over geological epochs, tectonic forces, and external influences such as the Sun and the planets — “wandering stars” — of our solar system. Science has significantly advanced our understanding of the intimate relationship between the Sun’s energy outputs and Earth’s weather and climate systems.
However, it is troubling that anti-science organizations and global governments are now promoting the notion that Earth’s climate must remain static and unchanging. These groups argue that the climate is deteriorating due to rising carbon dioxide levels since the onset of the Industrial Revolution some 240-260 years ago. This belief is pushed despite the lack of direct or indirect evidence proving that carbon dioxide is causing dangerous global warming. Nonetheless, these elements have succeeded in convincing a largely disengaged public that we must stabilize Earth’s climate by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide, without defining what concentration is desirable or specifying the “correct” global temperature to maintain.
On July 9, from the garden of Laudato Si’ Village, Pope Leo XIV delivered a
homily stating:
We must pray for the conversion of so many people, inside and outside of the church, who still don’t recognize the urgency of caring for our common home. … We see so many natural disasters in the world, nearly every day and in so many countries, that are in part caused by the excesses of being human, with our lifestyle.
The pope also issued a warning ahead of the September 1 World Day of Prayer for the Care of Creation:
Our Earth is being ravaged. Injustice, violations of international law and the rights of peoples, grave inequalities and the greed that fuels them are spawning deforestation, pollution and the loss of biodiversity. Extreme natural phenomena caused by climate changes provoked by human activity are growing in intensity and frequency.
I feel compelled to remind readers of what I wrote when the encyclical Laudato Si’ was released 10 years ago: “Only around 2% of the encyclical addresses climate change — 4 out of 246 items — and even these contain half-truths. Half-truths are the enemy of science and must be eradicated.”
Pope Leo XIV (AP Images)
I feared then, as I do now, that the encyclical was driven more by social and political motives than by science. The office of the Pope is mistaken in condemning the beneficial use of fossil fuels, which have enhanced life on Earth. As Galileo said 400 years ago when the papacy similarly rejected science: “It is not in the power of any created being to make things true or
false, for this belongs to their own nature and to the fact.”
While we can forgive Pope Francis and Pope Leo XIV for their lack of familiarity with climate science, their dire warnings about atmospheric CO2 border on alarmism. These proposals to manipulate CO2 levels in the name of God would be almost comedic if not for the potentially severe consequences of reducing carbon dioxide through the suppression of industrial activity. The proponents of such action appear entirely unaware of how the planet’s carbon cycle works. Even halting all human industrial activity, which actually occurred to an extent during the Covid-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2023, may not significantly lower atmospheric CO2 levels.
What the Data Tell Us
The numbers tell a rather shocking story about CO2. For example, Britain’s coal consumption has dropped to levels not seen since 1666. U.S. fossilfuel-related CO2 emissions have declined 18 percent from their mid-2000s peak. In June 2025, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reported a 38-percent reduction in emissions from power plants. American air quality is better than ever, especially when compared to that of China and India. The U.K. has reduced emissions by more than 50 percent since the 1970s. Globally, CO2 emissions have remained relatively flat for the past decade.
And yet, atmospheric CO2 continues to rise — seemingly in spite of decades of sacrifice and policy changes. These factual, real-world data suggest that the global carbon budget is far more complex than simply adding up human emissions.
The Role of CO2 in the Biosphere
Scientific evidence shows that carbon dioxide is the “gas of life,” enhancing biological productivity across ecosystems. Since the 1800s, the Earth has greened noticeably, including in marginal desert areas, as plants become more efficient in water usage under elevated CO2. In contrast, low CO2 levels during glacial periods (often called “ice ages”) led to inhospitable conditions for vegetation and animal life. Today’s atmospheric CO2 concentration is at a mere 0.043 percent. Far from being dangerous, this may be suboptimal for a thriving biosphere.
What About the Climate Itself?
Science has yet to offer a precise definition of “climate.” It’s not merely a statistical average of weather patterns. The full range of climatic
interactions, including seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns across geographical areas, remains only partially understood. Those who insist that rising atmospheric CO2 levels lead only to negative climatic effects ignore the substantial positive impacts on life.
It is disheartening that major scientific organizations have failed to communicate any factual understanding of climate change. Instead, many have adopted a singular, alarmist narrative for the past 30 or 40 years.
The Sun’s Role: Our True Power Source
What powers Earth’s energy systems? The Sun — our Bright Orange Ball, or BOB — provides 99.99 percent of all energy on Earth, including for photosynthesis. Since the 1940s, science has linked changes in Sun-Earth orbital configuration to the timing of ice ages and warm periods of the last 2.5 million years. Satellite data confirm that the Sun is not a stable, unchanging lightbulb; its emissions, including ultraviolet and X-rays, vary significantly. These energetic shifts may even play a role in gene mutation and the evolution of life.
At the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences, we have published studies showing that the Sun’s activity explains most — if not all — of Earth’s thermal variability. However, further research is needed to capture the true dynamics of both solar and terrestrial change, which antiscience activists continue to ignore.
Urban Heat and Climate Narratives
Our research confirms that global temperature records are significantly influenced by Urban Heat Island effects, first described in 19th-century London, England. A recent, independent study by Drs. Roy Spencer and John Christy corroborates these findings in U.S. temperature records. These results challenge decades of claims about “global warming” or “global boiling” pushed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and even the “burning world” echoed by Pope Leo XIV.
In contrast to IPCC computer models predicting continuous and accelerated warming, real-world data show that temperature oscillates between warm and cool phases every few decades.
Scientific Integrity vs. Cherry-picked Narratives
Our latest twin papers, employing two of the most powerful modern toolkits — Large Language Models and Principles of Forecasting Science — critically evaluate the IPCC’s 2021-2023 reports. The conclusion? The reports are at best cherry-picked and at worst deliberately misleading. The IPCC’s 35-year narrative represents anti-science rather than science.
It is time to abandon the relentless campaign to vilify carbon dioxide. Science and reason, not fear, should guide our efforts to improve life on Earth. The principles of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, as enshrined in the U.S. Declaration of Independence, should remain our compass.
Perhaps it is fitting to close with the words of Pope Leo XIV himself: “May this be the harmony we spread throughout the world.”