Soot not carbon dioxide - RH

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Global warming by soot from burning coal: CO2 an innocent (beneficial) by-product Preprint · September 2022

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Global warming by soot from burning coal: CO2 an innocent (beneficial) by-product Roger Higgs, DPhil

Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2022-1

5th Sept 2022, amended 8th Sept 2022

Slide 1 (of 3). Correlation: Coal consumption vs Temp. vs CO2, last 140 years

A) GLOBAL ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PRODUCTION)

1958 oil surge

OurWorldInData.org

Oil Coal

1900 10y lag

Coal surge (‘First Oil Shock’) in 1974 Land warming faster than sea since 1985

2001 coal surge (Slide 2) 2011 warming surge

... good correlation with coal consumption B) GLOBAL TEMPERATURE, land vs ocean NASA-GISS

... poor correlation with CO2 (dissimilar, non-’stairstep’ rise)

Large uncertainty 1940 warm peak corresponds to Sun’s exceptional 1785 peak (150yr lag, due to ocean thermal inertia) ... ref. Slide 3

C) ATMOSPHERIC CO2

www.sealevel.info

1900AD

2020

Global warming by soot from burning coal: CO2 an innocent (beneficial) by-product Roger Higgs, DPhil

Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2022-1

5th Sept 2022, amended 8th Sept 2022

Slide 2 (of 3). Correlation: Coal Consumption vs Temp. vs CO2, last 40 years

A) WORLD ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION Gail Tverberg, OurFiniteWorld.com

‘STAIRSTEP’ RISE 1980 2001 coal surge (China) 2012 warming surge

10y lag

... good correlation with coal Niño

B) GLOBAL TEMPERATURE (lower troposphere, satellite)

‘STAIRSTEP’ RISE

Climate4You.com, from UAH

... poor correlation with CO2

1980

C) CO2 NOAA

2020

NON‘STAIRSTEP’ RISE & accelerating

Global warming by soot from burning coal: CO2 an innocent (beneficial) by-product Roger Higgs, DPhil

Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2022-1

5th Sept 2022, amended 8th Sept 2022

Slide 3 (of 3). Tentative Conclusions 1. Global warming since 1970 correlates well with global coal-fired energy production, showing the same ‘stairstep’ rise & lack of acceleration (Slides 1, 2). There is a 10-year lag between (A) changes in rate of coal consumption (combustion) & (B) corresponding changes in rate of warming.

2. In contrast, CO2 & warming correlate poorly, i.e. CO2’s rise is accelerating & non-’stairstep’ (Slide 2).

3. Thus, post-1970 warming is largely attributable to ‘black carbon’ (soot) from coal power plants. Other big soot emitters are: coalfired iron- & cement-making; diesel vehicles; aviation; shipping. The soot is plainly visible as ‘smog’ over cities & industrial regions.

Soot causes warming in 2 ways: (A) while airborne, absorbing solar warmth & (B) after settling on snow & ice, reducing its albedo.

4. Further incriminating soot, land-air started warming twice as fast as the sea surface in 1985 (Slide 1; inexplicable by CO2, readily dispersed, unlike soot), ~10y after the rate of coal consumption suddenly doubled (1974).

5. In view of 1-4 above, CO2’s small theoretical ‘greenhouse effect’ is presumably negated by under-estimated negative feedbacks, e.g. clouds & “potentially very important” (Kulmala et al. 2013) BVOC, ignored by IPCC. 6. The IPCC wrongly assumes that black carbon’s warming effect (hitherto very uncertain; Bond et al. 2013) is far less than CO2’s.

7. 1992 to 2021 warming (0.6°C land-sea average; Slides 1, 2) must be entirely man-made, as it equates to an overall solar decline (1835-1863; 150yr lag by ocean thermal inertia; Higgs 2022 GSA poster, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362103181).

8. 2010-2021 warming (0.25°C) corresponds to the 2001-2010 highest-ever rate of global coal combustion (Slides 1, 2; especially China) & to a slight rise in time-lagged solar output (Higgs 2022, see above).

9. CO2 ‘capture’ is needless, in fact counterproductive, because atmospheric CO2, currently 415ppm, is far below the ~1,000ppm optimum for plant growth. $$trillions saved not capturing CO2 can be diverted to preparing for the coming sea-level rise (see below).

10. Urgent need: stop man-made warming, by sharply reducing coal consumption (Slide 2) & by curbing other soot-producing activities (see ‘3’ above). This will avoid worsening an imminent unstoppable man-made sea-level rise of ~2m (Higgs 2023 EGU abstract, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362420545), which will be exacerbated by strong solar-driven warming (Svensmark mechanism) from ~2050 to ~2140, corresponding to the Sun’s 1901-1991 exceptional surge, to its highest level in >2,000 years (Higgs 2022, above).

11. Fast-track transition to soot-free nuclear & natural gas (& fracking) is required, solar & wind being too land-intensive & unreliable.

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