33 bullet points prove CO2 innocent of global warming - RH

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33 simple 'Bullet Points' prove global warming by the Sun, not CO2: by a GEOLOGIST for a change Technical Report · April 2019

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33 simple 'Bullet Points' prove global warming by the Sun, not CO2: by a geologist for a change Dr Roger Higgs (DPhil geology, Oxford, 1982-86) Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note 2019-11, on ResearchGate https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803 6th April 2019, amended 27th Nov 2021 For literature sources see ‘Linked data’ ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334029086 Abbreviations: 'AD' = anno Domini; 'BC' = years 'before Christ'; 'BP' = years 'before present', from radiocarbon dating (0 is 1950AD by convention); ~ = about/approximately

1) The IPCC (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has no geologists among the hundreds of authors of its last major report (2013/14), and at most 1 geologist in the next report (due 2022; Summary for Policymakers released October 2021). Thus IPCC focuses on only the last 170 years (since multiple reliable thermometer measurements began, ~1850), yet Earth is 26 million (sic) times older, 4.5 billion years. Geologists know that throughout this time Earth has constantly warmed or cooled (never static). Thus 'climate change' (warming or cooling) is perfectly usual. During the last 11,650 years, our current ‘Holocene’ interglacial epoch, climate change has repeatedly been fast enough to cause collapse of civilizations (Bullet 20).

2A) The IPCC’s very existence relies on public belief in ‘Anthropogenic (Man-Made) Global Warming' (AGW) by the 'greenhouse effect' (Bullet 5) of CO2 emissions. Most IPCC authors, mainly government and university researchers, are biased by strong vested interests in greenhouse AGW, i.e. publications, reputations, salaries, research grants.

2B) Similarly, universities have sacrificed their impartiality by hosting institutes financially mandated to promote CO2-driven AGW. For example, London's former bastion of scientific integrity Imperial College (where I obtained my BSc Hons ARSM in 1975) has, since 2007, lamentably housed the 'Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment', founded and funded by investment magnate Jeremy Grantham (heavily involved in forest destruction for biomass energy according to the 2019 Michael Moore/Jeff Gibbs documentary 'Planet of the Humans'). The 'Tyndall Centre for Climate Research' (founded 2000 and named after John Tyndall [Bullet 5A]), has branches at the Universities of Cardiff, Manchester, Newcastle and Fudan, and also at the University of East Anglia, in the same building as the infamous IPCC-linked Climatic Research Unit (CRU; Wiki 'Climategate').

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2C) Well-known scientists formerly associated with the IPCC have subsequently denounced its methods.

3) The claimed '97% consensus among scientists' that CO2-driven AGW exists is widely misunderstood and misquoted. It refers in fact to polls of only recent publications by only 'climate scientists', i.e. specialists lacking deep-time perspective (Bullet 1) who deal with famously unreliable 'climate models' (Bullet 6). The vast majority of the world's normal scientists, numbering millions, has never been polled, myself included. In November 2019 Wikipedia deleted its "List of scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus on global warming" (Bullet 29).

4) No informed person ‘denies’ global warming: thermometers have measured it (Bullet 11). ‘Global-warming denier’ and 'climate-change denier' are dishonest names (with intentionally despicable connotations) lazily applied to people who in fact deny (or doubt) only that warming is man-made (AGW; Bullet 2A). Infamous Michael Mann (Bullet 32), in his combative 2012 book "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines", used the term "climate change denier" (or denial/denying/denialism) no fewer than 100 times, omitting the prefix "human caused". In contrast "human-caused climate change" or "human-caused global warming" appears just 13 times (after the first use of "climate change deniers" [page xiii]). The book also misleadingly gives the impression that all prominent "deniers" are funded by oil companies, and compares them with tobacco-funded deniers that cigarettes harm health.

5A) "The greenhouse effect is the process by which radiation from a planet's atmosphere warms the planet's surface" (Wiki, accessed 4th Nov 2021, citing IPCC).

This bold claim that Earth's land- and ocean surfaces are warmed by the air is 'backwards'. In truth the (solar-warmed) ocean warms the atmosphere, as shown by three observations: (1) ocean-surface water (covering ~70% of Earth) throughout the north Pacific and north Atlantic is almost everywhere warmer than the air above it; (2) changes in global average surface air temperature lag 1 to 1.5 months behind corresponding changes in global sea-surface temperature; and (3) Antarctica has failed to warm in the last several decades (attributed to the ice sheet's high elevation delaying the landward penetration of ocean-warmed air). These facts indicate that heat (only capable of flowing one way, from warmer to cooler) flows outward, from the ocean to the air, not vice versa. A truer summary of the greenhouse effect is that solar energy absorbed at Earth’s surface is radiated back into the atmosphere as heat, some of which is absorbed on its way out to space by greenhouse gases. Thus greenhouse gases are merely insulators, reducing the air's heat loss to space, in the manner demonstrated experimentally in the 19th century by John Tyndall (Bullet 2B). Moreover, Wiki admits: "The term greenhouse effect is a misnomer, in the sense that physical greenhouses warm via a different mechanism. The greenhouse effect as an atmospheric mechanism functions through radiative heat loss while a traditional greenhouse as a built structure blocks convective heat loss."

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5B) CO2 is a ‘greenhouse gas’ (GHG). Confirming CO2's greenhouse effect, satellite instruments show infrared (heat) energy escaping from Earth is slowed in the wavelengths diagnostic of CO2. Repeat measurement 26 years apart showed that slowing increased, i.e. 'enhanced greenhouse effect' by growth of atmospheric CO2.

Due to the 'saturation effect', CO2's theoretical heat-trapping ability sharply (logarithmically) declines as its concentration rises. CO2's Climate Sensitivity (CS) is the hypothetical warming due to a doubling of CO2. The IPCC estimates that CS, based on defective climate models (Bullet 6) and circular reasoning, is probably between 1.5 and 4.5C°, a 300% contrast. According to a landmark new paper by van Wijngaarden & Happer (2020), CS for doubling of CO2 from 400 to 800 parts per million (ppm) is theoretically 1.4 to 2.3C°, but their calculations assume cloud-free conditions; the effect of clouds, which cover about two thirds of Earth at any moment (Wiki 'Cloud cover'), is very uncertain (Bullet 5C).

5C) Climate control by the Sun for at least the last 9,000 years is proven by strong graph-to-graph correlation of solar-magnetic output (SMO) and global average surface temperature, with a ~150-year temperature delay ('ocean lag'; Bullets 12, 21).

In contrast, CO2 and temperature match very poorly, showing only a partial coincidence: CO2's accelerating rise since ~1850 (start of Industrial Revolution), interrupted by only a brief pause (1887-97) and a trivial reversal (1ppm decline from 1940 to 1944), accompanied alternating multi-decadal coolings (1850-1910, 1940-75*; total 95 years) and warmings (1910-45, 1975-2016; total 76 years). * = from HadCRUT graph of 1850-2021 averaged global temperature, near-identical to NASA-GISS graph spanning only 1880-2021, based on same weather stations but different processing.

5D) Despite its greenhouse effect, CO2 evidently causes no warming, as: (a) changes in CO2 growth rate follow changes in rate of warming (Bullet 10); and (b) CO2 correlates poorly with temperature (Bullet 5C). This proves that CO2's greenhousewarming potential, already reduced logarithmically "well into the saturation regime", must be negated by feedbacks. Two natural feedbacks ignored in IPCC climate models are: (i) little known cloud feedback; and (ii) “potentially very important” increased biogenic 'BVOC' aerosol due to faster forest growth by warming & CO2 fertilization. (The only feedbacks listed in IPCC's influential 2013 Fifth Assessment Report fig. SPM.5 are man-made ones, with very wide "uncertainty intervals".) IPCC admits "aerosols and their interactions with clouds have offset a substantial portion of global mean forcing from ... greenhouse gases. They ... contribute the largest uncertainty"; and "quantification of cloud and convective effects in models, and of aerosol–cloud interactions, continues to be a challenge."

IPCC's underestimation of negative feedbacks might explain why climate models run too hot (Bullet 6), and why 'runaway' greenhouse warming has apparently never occurred on Earth.

6A) Computer 'climate models' (by 'climate scientists'; Bullet 3) are so full of assumptions (stacked upon other assumptions) as to be highly misleading at best, e.g. 1985-2015 warming forecast by 31 models turned out 2 to 4 times too high. Even pro-IPCC 'tricky Wiki' (Bullet 29) admitted: “Each model simulation has a different guess at processes that scientist don't understand sufficiently well”. A new book by a former science advisor to US President Obama highlights climate models'

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unreliability and failure to reconstruct 20th Century temperatures accurately (Koonin 2021).

6B) Climate models ignore three crucial factors: (i) natural cloud and aerosol-cloud feedbacks (Bullet 5D); (ii) large changes in solar magnetic output (SMO; Bullet 12A) said to drive global temperature changes (Svensmark Theory), denied by the IPCC (Bullet 14) and NASA, which both disingenuously assert that total solar irradiance (TSI, which changes in lockstep with SMO but far less, and not strictly proportionately) varies much too little to affect climate, so CO2 must be in charge.

NASA went so far as to title a publication 'Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth's Temperature' (2010); and (iii) 'ocean-lag', the ~150-year delay between changes in SMO and correlative changes in temperature (Bullet 21).

These IPCC failings, namely feedback underestimation, 'Sun denial' (dismissal of solar variations), ocean-lag omission, and fixation on CO2, mean that all climate modeling conducted to date is misleading (worse than useless).

7A) CO2 currently (November 2021) is 415 ppm, only 0.04% of our atmosphere, i.e. less than half of one-tenth of 1%. For much of the last 550 million years (Phanerozoic time), the concentration was 2 to 10 times higher. Evolution flourished. Plant photosynthesis, the basis of all life, was stimulated by higher CO2 (Bullet 8).

Extinction events due to overheating by CO2 are unknown.

7B) Throughout Phanerozoic time, CO2 seemingly correlated well with temperature (although all studies inevitably have low resolution and dating uncertainties). The correlation is readily explained by warming and cooling oceans respectively releasing and absorbing CO2 (Bullets 9, 10).

8A) Through Holocene time (last 11,650 years), atmospheric CO2 (from Antarctic ice cores) was only 250-285 ppm (i.e. not far above plant-starvation level of ~150 ppm), until ~1850 when mankind's industrial CO2 emissions began. Since then, atmospheric CO2 has climbed steeply. Proving that man's emissions are the main driver of this post-1850 accelerating rise in CO2, ice cores show that the last five interglacial periods (including the Holocene up until 1850) all reached levels of 250300 ppm (cf. intervening glacials 185-195ppm), evidently an equilibrium value for normal interglacial conditions. CO2 is currently 415ppm (November 2021).

8B) The present CO2 level of 415ppm is far from hazardous to human health, e.g.

CO2 levels in US Navy submarines typically average 3,000-4,000ppm with no reported ill effects. Benefits of rising CO2, thanks to the 'CO2 fertilization effect', include expansion of natural forests ('greening' of the planet) and increased agricultural productivity, essential for feeding Earth's burgeoning population. Thus, ironically, man's production of CO2 by burning fossil fuels (for energy and transport) has unintentionally averted, or at least postponed, a global food crisis.

Commercial growers inject CO2 into their greenhouses. "CO2 enrichment in greenhouses allows crops to meet there (sic) photosynthesis potential." "For most crops the saturation point will be reached at about 1,000–1,300 ppm ... Increased CO2 levels will shorten the growing period (5%–10%), improve crop quality and yield".

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9) Before the ~1850-onward global network of accurate thermometers, temperature ‘proxies’ (e.g. tree-ring widths, ice-core isotopes) show slight global warming (~0.1C°) from the ~1815 cold peak of the Little Ice Age (Bullet 17) to the ~1850 start of industrial CO2 emissions. This warming was accompanied by a trivial CO2 rise (1ppm, reaching 285ppm; measured in ice cores), readily ascribed to ocean water releasing CO2 by warming (decreasing its CO2-holding capacity). After applying a 150-year 'ocean lag' (Bullet 21), the warming equates to rising solar output.

10) Additional evidence, besides Bullet 9, that rising CO2 is a consequence, not cause, of global warming (i.e. CO2 released from warming ocean; added to man's CO2 emissions, Bullet 8A) is that Pleistocene ('Ice Age'; ~2.5 million years ago until Holocene) glacial-interglacial temperature changes were followed "very closely" by changes in CO2. Based on ice-core data, the time-lag has been determined as somewhere between 400 years and zero, or possibly negative. The uncertainty is because air is free to migrate in the upper snowpile, above the 'lock-in depth'.

Greatly narrowing the uncertainty, analysis of post-1950 direct atmospheric CO2 and thermometer data by two research groups found that changes in the rate of CO2 growth follow changes in the rate of warming by ~5 months and by 11-12 months.

11) The NASA-GISS global (land-ocean average) temperature graph for 1880-2020 shows 1.4C° warming (global land average) between 1910 and 2016 (slight cooling since then, Bullet 13). This 1910-onward 'Modern Warming' (name proposed here) was preceded by at least 30 years of overall cooling (1880-1910) and interrupted by: (i) a 10-year cooling (1940-50) and ensuing 25-year hiatus (1950-75) (cf. 1940-75 cooling on HadCRUT graph [Bullet 5C]); (ii) the 1998-2012 ‘Global warming hiatus’ (Wiki); and (iii) superimposed on and between these, frequent minor coolings of 1-3 years, some attributable to mega-'volcanic winters’ and perhaps some to 'ENSO' (El Niño/La Niña) events. In contrast to this markedly stop-start warming behaviour, accelerating CO2 since the start of industrial emissions ~1850 (Bullet 8) had only a brief pause (1887-97) and a trivial reversal (1ppm decline from 1940 to 1944), both occurring during coolings, and both attributable to CO2's increasing solubility in a cooling ocean (Bullet 9). In other words, CO2 and global temperature do not correlate. On the other hand, the two coolings do match solar downturns, after applying an 'ocean lag' temperature lag of ~150 years (Bullet 21). Further underscoring the Sun's control of climate, the HadCRUT graph of averaged global temperature since 1850 (near-identical to NASA-GISS graph, same weather stations, different processing) contains solar frequencies. Furthermore, mega-volcanoes correlate with low solar output (Bullet 33) and ENSO events are Sun-related too.

12A) The unsteady up-down ‘sawtooth’ style of global warming since ~1815 (last major cold spike of Little Ice Age; Bullets 9, 11) resembles the sawtooth rise in solarmagnetic output (SMO) from ~1700 (end of sunspot-defined 'Maunder Minimum') to 1991 (peak SMO of Sun's modern 'Grand Maximum' [GM; 1937-2004]; NB the sunspot peak was earlier, 1958, i.e. sunspots are not an entirely faithful proxy for SMO [Bullet 6B]). A very good visual cross-match between the two graphs is found by applying a temperature delay of ~150 years (Bullet 21). SMO surged from 1902 (start of Sunspot

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Cycle 14) to 1991, the largest and highest multi-decade surge in at least 9,000 years, increasing 131% from 1901 to 1991, and 41% from 1964 to 1996. Discussing the Sun's modern GM, Steinhilber et al. (2008) said: "The last period which showed similar high activity and also lasted as long ... was about 1700 years ago". That particular ~300AD GM caused warming and drove a rapid (<100 years) global 2-3-metre sealevel rise, the 'Romano-British Transgression', one of numerous such rises in the last 10,000 years (Bullet 26), portending another such rise by 2100 (sic).

12B) The same ~150-year lag between SMO and global temperature applies to at least the last 9,000 years. For the past 2,000 years both graphs have a hockey-stick shape (Bullet 32): the 'shaft' is a long (~1,200 years) decline in both SMO and temperature, from ~400AD to the Little Ice Age (LIA; Bullet 17), with superimposed 50-200-year smaller up-down 'sawteeth'; and the 'blade' is the post-1700 climb (Bullet 12A). The 150-year 'ocean lag' (Bullet 21) aligns, for example: (i) the Sun's ~300AD Grand Maximum (Bullet 12A) and the ~450AD highest temperature of the last 2,000 years (possibly surpassed by the Modern Warming 2016 peak); and (ii) the ~1670 LIA solar minimum and the 1815 LIA minimum temperature (Bullet 12A).

Moreover, the solar and temperature graphs have the same proportionality: ~3:2 ratio of 'blade' height versus sawtooth amplitude; and ~1:1 height ratio of the shaft and blade. In contrast, CO2's correlation with temperature for the last 2,000 years is very poor (Bullets 5C, 11).

13) 2016 was the warmest year 'since records began', i.e. only since ~1850, the start of a reliable global thermometer network. 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were all cooler.

(NB In 2021 NASA adjusted its 2016 temperature downward, making 2020 appear warmest.)

14) The breathtakingly elegant and simple Svensmark Theory says rising solarmagnetic output, by deflecting more cosmic rays, reduces cloudiness. This allows more of the Sun’s warmth to heat the ocean and hence warm the atmosphere (Bullet 5A), instead of being reflected back into space by clouds. In support, a NASA study of satellite data spanning 1979-2011 (during the ‘Modern Warming’; Bullet 12) showed decreasing cloud cover. The IPCC dismisses Svensmark's theory.

15) Vocal climate scientist, computer modeler, IPCC 'lead author', and recipient of a 1999 US$1 million private donation to work on his alarming idea that man-made warming might stop 'Atlantic conveyor belt' (google AMOC) ocean circulation, with dire consequences for regional climate (cooling), ecosystems and society, Stefan Rahmstorf (Wiki) of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research wrongly said in 2008: "there is no viable alternative ... [to CO2 as driver of 1940-2005 warming, as] ... different authors agree that solar activity did not significantly increase”. Yet in 1999, eminent physicist Dr Michael Lockwood FRS (Wiki) and co-authors wrote in prestigious Nature journal that from 1964 to 1996 "the total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4” (i.e. more than doubled) and from 1901 to 1992 by 2.3. Supporting Lockwood's work, Steinhilber et al. (2010) showed that "Since the year 1700, the open solar magnetic flux has increased by about 350%". There is no

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evidence that AMOC has ever stopped in the last 9,000 years; my correlations indicate that the temperature delay ('ocean lag', Bullet 21) was always within the range 100-200 years (note increasing potential for dating errors, backward in time).

16) Lockwood (Bullet 15) showed that averaged solar magnetic flux increased 131% from 1901 to 1992, i.e. more than doubled. This solar surge drove the Modern Warming (Bullet 11), via the Svensmark effect (Bullet 14), delayed ~150 years by 'ocean memory' (Bullet 21). Bullets 17 and 18 likewise support Svensmark’s theory.

17) In response to a solar surge culminating in the Sun's ~300AD Grand Maximum (Bullet 12), global warming occurred from ~350 to ~450AD (~150-year 'ocean lag'; Bullet 21). Subsequent ‘sawtooth’ cooling mimicked the Sun’s 1,000-year sawtooth decline into the Little Ice Age (LIA). The LIA "has been conventionally defined as extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries, but some experts prefer an alternative timespan from about 1300 to about 1850" (Wiki, accessed 5th Nov 2021). In fact the LIA spanned 1440 to 1920 (my Technical Note 2021-6, Slide 2). The LIA has been correctly ascribed to solar downturn (Denton & Karlén 1973; Lean & Rind 1999).

Instead Miller et al. (2012) opined: "The coincidence of repeated explosive volcanism with centuries of lower-than-modern solar irradiance ... indicates that volcanic impacts were likely reinforced by external forcing ... but that an explanation of the LIA does not require a solar trigger". On the contrary, absolute dominance of solar control is obvious from the strong correlation between the LIA and a prolonged solar lull, after applying a 150-year temperature lag (Bullet 21).

18) In the 'Holocene Climatic Optimum' (Bullet 20) of 8,000 to 2,000BC, Earth was warmer than now except for about five interludes of a few decades each. Overall global cooling from 4,000BC to the Little Ice Age (Bullet 9) paralleled Earth's declining axial obliquity (one of the Milankovitch orbital parameters). Superimposed on this cooling are convolved (stacked) temperature cycles (decades to ~2,000 years each) that clearly correlate with solar fluctuations, offset by a time lag attributable to 'ocean lag' (Bullet 21). My discovery of this climate/solar correlation supports previous authors who interpreted 1,000-2,000-year climate cycles in Pleistocene and Holocene ice- and (ocean) sediment cores as Sun-driven. Such solar-driven cycles are probably pervasive throughout geological time. In extreme contrast, the IPCC claims that the Sun's variations have negligible effect on climate (Bullet 33), partly reflecting the IPCC's failure to consult geologists (Bullet 1).

19) This Holocene-age 5,500-year cooling (Bullet 19) mocks IPCC computer models (Bullet 6) that instead predict warming by the simultaneous (slow) rise in CO2. This is the "The Holocene Temperature Conundrum" of Liu et al. (2014).

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20) Embarrassingly for the IPCC, the 8000-2000BC warm interval (Bullet 18) was already called the ‘Holocene Climatic Optimum’ (Wiki) before IPCC's facile 'CO2 = pollutant' fallacy induced today's climate hysteria and the drive to spend trillions of dollars on 'carbon capture and storage' (CCS), needlessly and counter-productively, as atmospheric CO2 is still only 415ppm, well below the optimum for agriculture and forestry (Bullet 8). The Holocene warmer-than-now episodes may have benefitted development of civilizations.

21) For at least the last 9,000 years, sawtooth-style global warming/cooling and solar-magnetic activity correlate very well after applying a temperature lag ('oceanmemory lag' or 'ocean-lag') of ~150 years (unnoticed by IPCC), attributable to oceanic thermal inertia (vast ocean volume, high heat capacity and slow global conveyor-belt circulation [AMOC; Bullet 15]), causing a delayed response to changes in solar-magnetic flux, which controls cloudiness, hence global temperature (Svensmark, Bullet 14). The HadCRUT temperature chart spans only 171 years (18502021), just 21 years longer than the 150-year lag, helping to explain why the strong solar/temperature correlation was never noticed before. The similarity of my ~150year ocean lag to the calculated "ventilation time" (~100 years; Broecker 1979) or "residence time" (~180 years; Brocker 1991) of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW, involved in AMOC circulation) suggests they are related.

22) The IPCC says ongoing global warming despite solar weakening (since 1991; Bullet 12) disqualifies the Sun as the cause of warming. This disingenuously ignores the time-lag caused by oceanic thermal inertia (Bullet 21), of which the IPCC is well aware, and which brings the Sun's past 'ups-and-downs' ('sawteeth') into alignment with global temperature ups-and-downs (Bullets 12A, 21). Thus, one of the three pillars upon which the 'Anthropogenic (man-made) Global Warming' by CO2 dogma stands is demolished. The other two are equally easy to dismiss, namely (i) simultaneous warming and acceleration in CO2 since 1850 (mere coincidence; Bullet 24), and (ii) the claim that the 30cm sea-level rise since 1850 is unprecedented in 2,000 years (Bullet 26).

23) The last interglacial period, ~120,000 years ago, was warmer than our Holocene interglacial. Humans and polar bears survived! CO2 was about 275 ppm, i.e. lower than now (Bullet 8), at a time of greater warmth (due to higher Milankovitch insolation).

24) The joint rise of Earth's temperature and man-made CO2 since 1850 is a ‘spurious correlation' (Bullet 5C). Temperature correlates much better with solar output, after applying a 150-year 'ocean lag' (Bullet 21). Therefore IPCC's demonising of CO2 as a ‘pollutant’ is a colossal blunder, wasting trillions of dollars on needless 'carbon capture and storage' (CCS). Instead, governments should focus urgently on the imminent Sun-driven sea-level rise of 2-3 metres by ~2100 (Bullets 12A, 26).

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25) Whether or not human efforts to reduce CO2 are successful, within the next few millennia our benign Holocene ‘interglacial’ period will gradually end, by Milankovitch orbital forcing (Bullet 18), introducing the next glacial period, reaching peak coldness in ~50,000 years.

26) The IPCC says sea level (SL) from 0 to 1800AD varied <25cm (and <1m since 4000BC) and never exceeded today’s SL, therefore the 30cm SL rise measured since 1850 is abnormal, they say, blaming industrial CO2. But this claim, based on cherrypicked evidence, all flawed, ignores dozens of studies of geological and archaeological 3000BC-1000AD SL benchmarks globally, which reveal three or four SL rises (and falls) of 1-3m in <200 years each (i.e. max. rate >15mm/year), all reaching higher than today, long before industrial CO2, and all attributable to exceptional solar grand maxima.

27) According to the IPCC, if industrial CO2 emissions were allowed to continue growing until 2080 and then slowly decline, atmospheric CO2 concentration would stabilize ~2140 at a new equilibrium value of ~750ppm, beneficially nearer the optimum for plant photosynthesis (Bullet 8). This is scenario RPC6.0 of the IPCC, whose modeling indicates that this rise in CO2 would cause ~2.5C° of warming between 2020 and 2150, after which the warming curve nearly flattens. But IPCC models are deeply flawed (Bullets 6, 19).

28) NASA's 'ClimateKids' website (accessed 1st Nov. 2021) says "Extra greenhouse gases in our atmosphere are the main reason that Earth is getting warmer". This belief, stated as fact, is based largely on guesswork (e.g. Bullet 5B). The website also frightens children with "today the planet is warming much faster than it has over human history". This unfounded claim refers to the NASA 1880-2020 thermometer graph's steepest sector (1975 to 2020 warmed 1 C°, i.e. rate = 2.2 C°/century). The claim is impossible to prove because, for the pre-thermometer era (before 1850), only proxy-temperature graphs (from ice cores etc.) are available for comparison with the post-1850 thermometer record ('apples and oranges'). Such graphs, going back thousands of years, are of much lower resolution and are also invariably smoothed, both factors reducing the number and height of proxy-temperature 'spikes', thereby hiding the true rates of short-term (decades) warmings. Society is in a bad way when formerly prestigious NASA, which once enthralled children by landing men on the moon, is reduced to scaring them with misinformation and false claims, damaging their mental health (see also Bullet 8).

29) In March 2020 I exposed Wikipedia's November 2019 deletion of its 'List of scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus on global warming' (Bullet 4), which named 79 renowned PhD scientists (each with his/her own Wikipedia entry), from diverse sciences, brave enough to publically challenge the global CO2 delusion.

(Tens of thousands of other 'skeptical' scientists are sadly too timid to join in, possibly scared for their jobs.) Thus, your children may never know that many

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prominent, impartial scientists disagree with the claim by the under-qualified, disingenuous IPCC (Bullets 1, 6, 22) that global warming is due to man-made CO2.

This is global censorship by 'Tricky Wiki'. Fortunately the list survives, both hardcopy (contact me for pdf) and online (for now).

30) The Royal Observatory of Belgium's SILSO group produced a "corrected" new sunspot series, now widely accepted, enlarging the 1778 sunspot peak, such that the 1958 peak (Bullet 12) looks less exceptional. The result was announced in a 2015 press release by SILSO Director Frédéric Clette: "The new record has no significant long-term upward trend in solar activity since 1700, as was previously indicated.

This suggests that rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity." However, this conclusion neglects 'ocean lag' (Bullet 21): after applying a ~150-year temperature lag, warmings and coolings since the start of the Industrial Revolution (~1850) closely match solar output.

31) The NASA and HadCRUT graphs (Bullet 11) show global land surface air temperature rising faster than sea surface temperature since 1985. Land and sea warming from 1985 to 2016 was supposedly 1.2 and 0.5 centigrade degrees, respectively (NASA), i.e. the land warmed more than twice as fast! This divergence is highly doubtful, for two reasons: (1) the same graphs show much less divergence before 1985 and sometimes in the opposite sense; and (2) the ocean governs global average air temperature (Bullet 5A), therefore how can the latter warm more than the former? Computer models blame the divergence on global warming by CO2, but models can produce any desired result (Bullet 6). A far more likely explanation is inadequate land-temperature correction for the 'urban heat island' effect. Indeed, there has been massive urbanisation worldwide since 1985, out-of-control world population increasing 60% and urban population more than doubling.

32) The 'Hockey stick controversy' (Wiki) refers to reconstructed proxy (tree rings etc.) temperature graphs by Michael Mann and co-authors, likened by climatologist Jerry Mahlman to a hockey stick, with its 'shaft' descending (cooling) into the Little Ice Age (Bullet 9), where it connects to a short, sharply rising 'blade'. "The original MBH88 hockey stick" (Mann 2012) is the Mann et al. (1998, fig. 5b) graph spanning 1400AD to 1995, as opposed to the longer-handled 1000 to 1998 "hockey stick ... of MBH99" (i.e. Mann et al. 1999 fig. 3a). Many AGW skeptics and deniers (Bullet 4) accused Mann of fraudulently claiming the 1990s was the warmest decade of the last millennium simply by erasing the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) 'hump' portrayed on the 900-1950AD temperature graph by Hubert Lamb (1965), pioneer palaeoclimatologist and originator of the MWP concept, re-published with minor alterations by the IPCC (Folland et al. 1990), showing the MWP crest at ~1150AD and warmer than today. But Lamb's graph was only an approximation, based mostly on historical documents. Moreover, proxy graphs published subsequently to those of Mann (i.e. post-1999), and extending further back (to 1AD), vindicated Mann and confirmed the MWP crest was well before 1000AD and was already surpassed by Modern Warming by 2000 or possibly as early as 1950.

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33) The IPCC assures us that Earth's temperature is controlled by CO2 and that the Sun has minuscule or zero effect. This is precisely backwards. In truth, solarmagnetic output controlled our climate (Svensmark Theory, Bullet 14) for the last 10,000 years, while CO2 has little or no influence (Bullets 5C, 11). Solar output variations even control the timing of major volcanic eruptions (affecting climate; Bullet 11) and large earthquakes.

CONCLUSION These 33 bullets collectively prove that any CO2 effect on global temperatures of the Holocene period (i.e. the last 11,650 years), including the 'Modern Warming' period since 1910, was nil or too small to detect. Almost certainly CO2's greenhouse effect is nullified by negative feedbacks greatly underestimated by the IPCC; this explains ‘The Holocene Temperature Conundrum’ and why 'runaway' warming is unknown throughout geological history. Holocene temperature changes were instead driven by solar-magnetic fluctuations (controlling cloudiness via the Svensmark Theory), superimposed on long-term cooling by Earth's declining axial obliquity. There is no 'climate crisis'. There certainly is a (Sun-driven) sea-level emergency. ___________________________________________________________________________ GERMAN TRANSLATION of the first 25 of these 33 bullet points ... https://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/2019/06/18/25-punkte-die-beweisen-dass-co2keine-globale-erwaermung-verursacht-diesmal-von-einem-geologen/ CHINESE TRANSLATION ... https://principia-scientific.org/全球变暖的元凶是太阳而不是二氧化碳-换个角度看/ or https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334823689

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