(James Conca) USofA - Covid-19 and future of energy

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2020/03/31/the-coronaviruspandemic-and-the-long-term-energy-outlook/#5ec822307d39 Please see link above for source text, embedded hotlinks and comments.

Mar 31, 2020

The Coronavirus Pandemic and The LongTerm Energy Outlook James Conca Forbes Contributor Energy I write about nuclear, energy and the environment

Urban centers will not fare well after the pandemic because of their large population density. Shown ... Siddarth Hanumanthu 1

Contrary to conventional wisdom, this pandemic may well result in a more prosperous America in a few years. A boom in telecommuting, a new growth in U.S. manufacturing, another surge to the suburbs, changes in mass transit, and a small baby boom will change our energy use and our society. And more nuclear power will be needed.

I was talking last week with Dr. Charles Forsberg, in the Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, about this pandemic and the long-term implications for our energy use.

We agreed that short-term predictions are kind of easy – the recession is decreasing our energy use as we all hunker down, work from home, stop recreational travel, and shutter all restaurants, bars and sporting events. Jordan Wildish has noticed that, over the last month, changes in energy use has all but erased the dramatic daily duck curve, and energy use is peaking near 11 AM rather than 8 AM. But what will happen when we come out of this pandemic and its associated recession?

Unfortunately, pandemics are expected to become more common because new viruses occur roughly in proportion to the number of people worldwide and greater travel boosts the chances of a breakout.

But in our discussion, we agreed that, contrary to conventional wisdom, this pandemic may well result in a more prosperous America in a few years. There are a few reasons for this thinking.

First, there will be a massive growth in U.S. manufacturing. This pandemic shown a light on the weakness of our supply chains. Even those things that are mostly made in America have some parts that are made elsewhere, like China or Thailand.

DISCUSSION John Shanahan Very insightful article, Jim. Thanks.

Ken Kok, Editor of the Nuclear Engineering Handbook, lives in Richland, Washington.

He points out that our nuclear industry and NRC have been broken for some time. The NRC has hardly supported innovation since the 1970s and made licensing prohibitively long and expensive. Our companies that build large nuclear plants have disappeared and their experienced staffs are dying off with hardly any youth replacement. Most of this is thanks to the scheming of the anti-energy extremists who want only wind and solar.

Switching to SMR mass production may take decades. These are big problems before we can implement the ideas in your essay.

Anti-nuclear power and anti-fossil fuel extremists have a stranglehold grip on the Free World: Greenpeace, NRDC, etc. They miight as well be working for our enemies. China 2

and Russia will continue to develop their nuclear energy industries. Developing oil and natural gas resources is only a temporary solution.

Here are some thoughts from a French website translated by Google text editor and some of my comments.

GaĂŤl Giraud : "La sortie du confinement ne sera pas du tout la fin de la crise" "I think what we are experiencing today is that we have built a market globalization that makes us extremely vulnerable. We have organized our international trade on just-intime value and supply chains, without substitute, without redundancy, to maximize the rate of profit. However, we see today that if you have, say, 30% of employees of a company who can no longer work (either because they are sick or because they don't want to take the risk of catching the virus), it's not 30% less production, it's the company that is forced to close. If this company is itself part of an international value chain and that there is no substitute, the entire chain is interrupted.

(JS) Getting a hold on exponential growth of the virus is not the only challenge. Getting the world economy going again and correcting what is wrong with the globalization model will take a big effort. Dealing with people who have been financially ruined, the countries whose economies stay broken - will be problems.

These huge challenges require better thinking than many of our leaders in either party have demonstrated since about 1970. Our universities have become slaves to tremendous government funding ideologies, not independent smart thinking.

Richard McPherson John, it provides the opportunity to use the countries best minds in a setting they can better thrive in. Not in a room with a 100 other desks, with 70% of the people there as a distraction. It will also allow us to go to robotic manufacturing in environmental controlled facilities for better health and safety. The increase in production will also increase the number of people involved in the supply, distribution and fulfillment chains. All restoring manufacturing in America thereby reducing dependence on communist run China. The new factories can receive secure electricity from EMP/cyber protected Molten Salt Nuclear Battery’s in underground vaults.

Ken Kok I find it interesting that we are talking about interruptions in the supply line for many manufacturing operations. I think one could conclude the same kind of thing if we have 3

an energy supply line that is based on wind and sun. Continuous, highly reliable power is required for most manufacturing processes. About 40 years ago I was involved in a meeting with senior staff from two refining companies and a tire manufacturer about using nuclear sources for process heat. They emphasized the at least 99% availability was required which is why when you look at early power plants before the larger grid you will always find multiple boilers and generators.

4