Nuclear is our most affordable energy (Andrew Kenny) South Africa

NUCLEAR IS OUR MOST AFFORDABLE ENERGY Andrew Kenny South Africa 2018

South Africa’s hopes of a prosperous economy depend on greatly increased electricity supply in the near future. The only way to reduce our catastrophic unemployment and raise living standards for all is through manufacturing, industrialization and beneficiating our mineral treasures. This needs a lot of electricity. Our present slight surplus, caused by a faltering economy, will not last long. Many of our coal stations are old and will have to shut down in due course.

We need more reliable, sustainable and affordable power stations. Nuclear power is our best option.

Nuclear has the best safety record of any energy source, and so arguments against it now are usually on costs. Actually around the world nuclear is always economic and often the cheapest source of electricity. Wind and solar, excellent for off-grid applications, are hopeless for grid electricity, upon which modern economies depend. All around the world, despite claims that solar and wind are becoming cheaper, the actual price of electricity is rising as more solar and wind are put onto the grid. Our renewable energy program has seen Eskom forced to buy the most expensive electricity in South African history. (Eskom passes on these costs to you and me.) By contrast, Koeberg Nuclear Station provides Eskom with some of its cheapest electricity ever.

I attended a conference in Vienna on the costing of the constructing of nuclear plants. It was held by the International Atomic Energy Agency and drew speakers from around the world, who told of their experience of nuclear construction, good and bad. The bad ones were particularly instructive.

Nuclear fuel costs are very low but capital costs are high. The most important variable in nuclear economics is the cost of capital. Interest during construction 1

(IDC), before the plant starts producing revenue, is of vital importance. Any delays are harmful to nuclear costs.

Famous delays and over-runs in nuclear construction are much used by nuclear opponents but in fact half of the six hundred nuclear units built since 1981 were built in 55 months or fewer. Recent delays in some new construction have been caused because the reactors are “first of a kind” (FOAK). These excellent new designs use passive safety to make them even safer than existing ones, and are simpler and more efficient. But, the first ones built, took longer to commissions such as the Russian VVER1200 and the American AP1000.

The timing for new nuclear plants in South Africa could not be better. The first VVER1200 is now running at 100% power and with complete success. The first AP1000 in China is now being loaded with fuel and will start running in months.

They will be amongst reactors for our choice, without the problems of FOAK. Vendor countries with continuous experience in nuclear construction, such us South Korea, China and Russia are able to build on time and on budget, with capital costs between $2,360 and $3,540 / kilowatt, which is low. France used to be able to do the same – and built Koeberg with complete success - but had not built nuclear plants since 1999. Hence her problems with her new EPR reactor (FOAK) in Finland. The USA is having the same problems and for the same reason.

Speaker after speaker emphasized the enormous importance in planning and preparing for a nuclear plant long before construction begins. It is cheap to make changes during planning; it is very expensive to make them during construction.

The reactor design must be complete in its essential components and layout. The nuclear regulator must be completely satisfied in every detail. The vendor, the owner, the component suppliers, the construction contractors, the future operators and the government must all understand each other perfectly beforehand, and all know exactly what is required of them.

The public must be well educated about the nuclear plant and free to question anything about it. The greens, who are richly funded and professional experts at obstruction, will do everything to delay or stop construction. The nuclear lobby, dismal at PR in the past, must be ready to counter them by speaking the truth to the public.

In the United Arab Emirates, South Korea is building four of her APR1400 nuclear reactors (which are a possible choice for us) at low cost. They are being built on budget and on time. The first plant is complete. But start-up has been delayed because the operating staff are not ready! This is a disgraceful oversight.

But fortunately for them right now a group of 80 South African nuclear operators are at the plant helping them. Our nuclear expertise is obviously held in high esteem internationally.

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The time is right for new nuclear power in South Africa. We have already proven ourselves with Koeberg, which works in harmony with nature and which has been delivering clean, safe, cheap reliable electricity for 34 years. But we must study, very carefully, the successes and failures of recent nuclear construction around the world before we begin.

South African experts have put in a massive amount of study into the new nuclear for over a decade. We are ready to build right now.

Andrew Kenny is a Mechanical Engineer qualified in nuclear physics He lives in Cape Town.

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