How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference 26th April 2012 Tim Stonor Managing Director, Space Syntax Limited Visiting Professor, The Bartlett, UCL t.stonor@spacesyntax.com @Tim_Stonor
Trafalgar Square The new Central Staircase
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Nottingham, England Old Market Square
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Millennium Bridge, London
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
Spatial accessibility Low
High
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
Spatial accessibility Low
High
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
Spatial accessibility Low
High
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
An evidence-based approach to urban planning y = .784x + 2.147, R-squared: .589
9 8
7
Vehicle movement
Pedestrian movement
8
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0
1
2
3
Spatial accessibility
4
5
6
7
y = 1.235x + 1.048, R-squared: .702
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Spatial accessibility
Research shows that 60-80% of movement flows are due to the structure of the network, measured by spatial accessibility. More accessible places get more movement.
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
80% retail located on 20% most spatially accessible streets
Courtesy of The TLRN Central London Pedestrian Study by Atkins Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Unplanned settlements Spatial layout distributes land use
Spatial accessibility Low
Land use distribution
High
Spatial accessibility
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Spatial layout influences crime & safety Area 5
Area 6
Area 2
Perth, Australia Property crime analysis Area 3 Spatial accessibility Low
High
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
What is the city for?
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Movement is the lifeblood of the city.
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Congestion The goal of advanced civilisations?
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
What is the city for? The city is for transaction
Social Economic Cultural Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Designing for movement Elephant and Castle
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Designing for movement Elephant and Castle
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Designing for movement Elephant and Castle
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Designing for movement Elephant and Castle
1916 Coherent urban layout “The Piccadilly of the south”
2005 Fragmented urban layout - isolated, divided communities - disposable income exodus.
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012
Elephant & Castle Pedestrian Forecast Model
Spatial layout attraction
Land use attraction
Transport attraction
The degree to which the design of the development creates an accessible, intelligible spatial layout.
The strength of attraction of movement-sensitive land uses, especially retail.
The degree to which public and private transport systems integrate with the development.
Pedestrian forecast Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Pedestrian Forecast Model Spatial layout attraction R square 35%
Weekend
R square 40%
Borough Station
Blackfriars Road
Lambeth North Station
Weekday
Southbank University
Elephant and Castle
1504_Ax_Ex_R2000
Kennington Road
Spatial layout attraction is calculated by analysing the network of pedestrian routes and measuring the degree to which individual route segments are likely to be used by people moving through the area.
Spatial accessibility Low
High
The degree to which the spatial layout attraction influences actual pedestrian movement is indicated by the R square value where the higher R square means a higher degree of fit (0% is no fit, 100% is perfect fit).
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Lambeth North Station
Blackfriars Road
Retail attraction Weekday
R square 38%
Weekend
R square 51%
Southbank University
Elephant and Castle
Shopping Centre Kennington Road
East Street Market
Retail attraction is calculated by measuring the distance of any route segment from the two principal areas of retail focus – Elephant and Castle Shopping Centre and the East Street Market.
1504_Ax_Ex_MCA_Centres
Metric distance over 800m 700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m 400 – 500 m 300 – 400 m 200 – 300 m 100 – 200 m 0- 100 m Origins
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012
Transport attraction
Lambeth North Station
Weekday
R square 26%
Weekend
R square 28%
Blackfriars Road
Borough Station
Southbank University
Elephant and Castle New Kent Road
Kennington Road
Transport attraction is calculated according to the distance of any pedestrian segment from either a bus stop, tube or rail station.
1504_Ax_Ex_MCA_Bus
Kennington Station
Metric distance over 800m 700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m 400 – 500 m 300 – 400 m 200 – 300 m 100 – 200 m 0- 100 m Bus stop Underground station
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012
Pedestrian Forecast Model
Spatial layout attraction Weekday R square = 49% Weekend R square = 54%
Retail attraction Weekday R square = 38% Weekend R square = 51%
Transport attraction Weekday R square = 26% Weekend R square = 28%
Pedestrian forecast Weekend R square=73%
Forecast movement
Actual movement
Actual movement
Weekday R square = 60%
Forecast movement
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Design proposal Forecast >600 300 – 600 150 – 300 100 – 150 60 – 100 0 – 60
1504_PedMov_Forecast_PropMasterplan
People Per Hour
0
50m
100m
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012
Pedestrian movement forecast 9am
Proposed retail land use
Pedestrian movement People per hour
Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time
400+ 200-400 100-200 50-100 25-50 0-25
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Pedestrian movement forecast 12pm
Proposed retail land use
Pedestrian movement People per hour
Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time
400+ 200-400 100-200 50-100 25-50 0-25
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Pedestrian movement forecast 2pm
Proposed retail land use
Pedestrian movement People per hour
Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time
400+ 200-400 100-200 50-100 25-50 0-25
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Pedestrian movement forecast 4pm
Proposed retail land use
Pedestrian movement People per hour
Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time
400+ 200-400 100-200 50-100 25-50 0-25
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Pedestrian movement forecast 6pm
Proposed retail land use
Pedestrian movement People per hour
Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility 2. Land use type & density 3. Sun path 4. Time
400+ 200-400 100-200 50-100 25-50 0-25
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Urban value
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Design factors influencing property security
UrbanBuzz
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Value of property security
UrbanBuzz
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Value of property security
UrbanBuzz
0 Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Average rateable value 2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Rateable value Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Rateable value Socio-spatial associations 100% 90% 80%
Correlations
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%
Socio economic
10%
Spatial layout
0%
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Rateable value Forecast model
Rateable value = IMD score + Global accessibility + Local accessibility Correlation 88%
Rateable Value = 731.267 + -3901.326*Income score + 6.4129e-8*Choice RN + 9.718*Choice R400
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Case studies
Earls Court
Elephant & Castle
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Earls Court Scenarios
Dislocated layout
Accessibility score 75
Accessibility score 35
Integration R400
Proposed layout
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Elephant & Castle master plan Scenarios
Dislocated layout
Accessibility score: 93
Accessibility score: 57
Integration R400
Proposed layout
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Average rateable value forecast Earls Court
Proposed layout
Elephant and Castle
Dislocated Alternative
Earls Court Proposed Earls Court Dislocated Elephant & Castle Proposed Elephant & Castle Dislocated
Proposed layout
Income Score Medium Medium Low Low
Dislocated Alternative
Local Global accessibility accessibility High Medium Low Medium High High Low High
average rental value (m2) £897.52 £508.03 £921.06 £571.61
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012
Average rateable value forecast 2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Proposed layout plan rateable value Dislocated layout rateable value
0
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Financial model
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Financial model Revenue assumptions
Office rental value
Residential rental value
Retail rental value average rental value (m2)
Savills 2010
Jones Lang LaSalle 2010
Earls Court Proposed
£897.52
Earls Court Dislocated
£508.03
Elephant & Castle Proposed
£921.06
Elephant & Castle Dislocated
£571.61
Space Syntax 2012
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012
Financial model Cost assumptions Cost assumptions come from RICS (capital costs) Adjusted for London @ 1.14 Build Function Description £/ Sq Meter
Inter‐ Quartile Mean Median Range Range £/sq.M £/sq.M £/sq.M £/sq.M
Offices‐general Offices‐Air conditioned General 1‐2 stories 3‐5 stories 6+ stories Offices‐Non Air conditioned General 1‐2 stories 3‐5 stories 6+ stories Offices‐With shops, banks, flats, etc 1‐2 stories 3‐5 stories 6+ stories
£ 1,374 £ 1,512 £ 1,360 £ 1,536 £ 1,915 £ 1,256 £ 1,151 £ 1,355 £ 1,764 £ 1,269 £ 1,024 £ 1,229 £ 1,572
1205 1326 1193 1347 1680 1102 1010 1189 1547 1113 898 1078 1379
1148 1218 1164 1234 1391 1028 974 1116 1622 972 849 968 1444
520‐3827 520‐3827 520‐2227 825‐3827 1086‐2820 569‐2149 569‐1711 586‐2149 1199‐1746 726‐2142 726‐1196 831‐1547 920‐2142
Shops ‐ General 1‐2 stories 3‐5 stories
£ 902 £ 914 £ 782
791 802 686
670 390‐1953 670 390‐1953 667 566‐845
524‐891 514‐995
Mixed Commercial Developments
£ 1,164
1021
1032 495‐1493
613‐1437
Flats ‐ General 1‐2 stories 3‐5 stories 6+ stories
£ 1,094 £ 1,056 £ 1,076 £ 1,509
960 926 944 1324
919 889 919 1208
796‐1070 795‐1033 790‐1066 986‐1487
381‐2930 549‐1722 381‐1946 725‐2930
943‐1366 1072‐1445 976‐1318 1143‐1468 1334‐1917 844‐1248 802‐1156 947‐1296 866‐1363 796‐973 906‐1193 1110‐1577
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012
Financial model Cash flow summary Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
Jan-2051
Jan-2052
0
1
2
39
40
Summary Income: Residential Retail Commercial Base Rent Less Allowance for Vacancy 10% Total Rental Income
13,622,949 14,031,637 209,438,086 215,721,228 3,178,118 3,273,461 48,860,116 50,325,920 637,492 656,617 9,800,749 10,094,771 £ 17,438,558 £ 17,961,715 £ 268,098,951 £ 276,141,920 £ 1,743,856 £ 1,796,171 £ 26,809,895 £ 27,614,192 £ 15,694,702 £ 16,165,543 £ 241,289,056 £ 248,527,728
Less Operating Expenses Total operating Expense
£ 1,395,410 £ 1,395,410 £
Net Operating Less Debt Service Less Capital Expenditures
£
-
7,186,362 £
7,186,362
£ 14,299,292 £ 14,770,133 £ 234,102,694 £ 241,341,366 38,317,560
38,317,560
38,317,560
38,317,560
145,085,917
Net Income before Taxes Corporate Tax Rate 25%
-£ 145,085,917 -£ 24,018,268 -£ 23,547,427 £ 195,785,134 £ 203,023,806 £ £ £ £ 48,946,284 £ 50,755,951
Net After Taxes
-£ 145,085,917 -£ 24,018,268 -£ 23,547,427 £ 146,838,851 £ 152,267,854
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012
Urban value Uplift Over 40 Years A
Earls Court
B
C
Dislocated Layout
Proposed layout with retail uplift
Proposed layout with retail, residential and office uplift
Difference between A and C
IRR
15 %
16 %
18 %
+ 20 %
NPV
£665 Million
£741 Million
£1.0 Billion
+ £335 Million
Elephant & Castle
A
B
C
Dislocated Layout
Proposed layout with retail uplift
Proposed layout with retail, residential and office uplift
Difference between A and C
IRR
11%
12.5%
14%
+ 27%
NPV
£47 Million
£ 85 Million
£ 145 Million
+ £98 Million
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax © 2012
Dissemination
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Overview
Online Training Platform Overview Introduction Contents Representations of space Analysis of spatial relations Interpretive models Theories
Methods
Technologies
Reference
Analysis of spatial relations <<4/4> Scale - Radius In order to analyse the different scales of spatial properties (A, B) (eg. those found at community scale), the concept of radius is introduced to serve as a tool for selecting sub-systems. For example, we select all spaces up to 100m from a certain space. The radius also can be defined as topological or geometric distance. As a result, we have a package of measures assessing spatial configuration. At least, each of the six measures (integration and choice with three definitions of distance) can be applied with the three definitions of radius, giving a total of 18 measures, which can be applied at any radius, so yielding a potentially very large set of possible syntactic measures.
Draft
A Global choice pattern of Jeddah
Standard measures However, the standard measures, widely used in space syntax, are angular integration and choice at various metric radii, because these standard measures lead to more e powerful analyses, which have been supported and verified by a large number of studies and practices. In particular, academic research (Hillier & Iida, 2005) has demonstrated that least angular analysis, rather than fewest turns and/or metric shortest routes analysis, best corresponds to movement patterns observed in real cities. This can be most likely explained by the fact that people use an angular geometric model of their environment to calculate distances. .
B Local choice pattern of Jeddah
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Social value Economic value Environmental value
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Social value Economic value Environmental value
Urban value
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Source: UN-Habitat, Goldmann Sachs
9 billion
7 billion 6.5 billion
4 billion 3 billion
3 billion
1.5 billion 1 billion
2010
2050
World Population
2010
2050
Urban Population
2010
2050
Informal Urban Population
2010
2050
Middle Class
An institutional challenge Which will it be?
Main street, mixing global & local movement
Fast highway separating global & local movement
Enhanced urban value
Suppressed urban value
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012
Tim Stonor Managing Director, Space Syntax Limited Visiting Professor, The Bartlett, UCL t.stonor@spacesyntax.com @Tim_Stonor
Tim Stonor 17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference How does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places Space Syntax Š 2012