Q3 Lake Norman Market Report

Ivester Jackson Christie's Lake Norman Luxury Market Report

Q3 2019

Q3 Market Report

contents October 2019

MARKET REPORT Lake Norman Surges To End Quarter 3 After Mid-Summer Dip

COMMUNITY UPDATES Cornelius Davidson Mooresville Denver | West Shore North Shore

FORECAST 4th Quarter Starts Strong As Lake Norman Luxury Market Surges

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3rd Quarter Luxury Market Report LAKE

NORMAN

AFTER

SURGES

MID-SUMMER

TO

END

QUARTER

3

DIP

The Lake Norman luxury home market surged to end the quarter as home buying activity strengthened to near high spring market levels.

201 homes priced over $500,000 are pending, a leading indicator level that rivals pending levels of May and June. This included 51 homes over $1 million in list price, a strong rally after the area experienced a slower than expected midsummer period. Most of the communities around Lake Norman experienced summers that were flat to last summer in terms of showing activity and actual declines in some cases relative to actual home closings. September brought a market confidence boosting Federal Reserve rate decrease, as well as an end to a record setting summer travel season in the U.S. which seemed to impact housing sell-thru, at least temporarily. Cornelius continued to display strength and leads the lake area’s ultra luxury market with 17 deals thus far in 2019 over $2 million in price, bringing long elevated inventory levels in that range into more balanced conditions after years of multi-year ultra-luxury supply. Showing activity also surged in September, running roughly 15-20% ahead of last September and pointing to a solid finish to 2019.

CORNELIUS Steady Action Powers Cornelius Into The 4th Quarter The Cornelius market did experience slight softening during the high season of July, but rebounded strongly moving into September. The ultra luxury market above $2 million in list price has now seen 17 transactions for 2019 and is on pace to exceed last year’s record pace that resulted in 17 sales for the entire year. Showings in the million dollar and up range spiked again moving into September by over 50% compared to the early fall of 2018, another sign that the 4th quarter of the year may be one of 2019’s strongest yet. The quarter ends with 41 homes pending above $500,000 in list price, a pending level that rivals the high spring selling season.

LAST 60 DAYS

CORNELIUS Q3 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS

Listings Cornelius

16409 BELLE ISLE DRIVE 17324 WAVECREST COURT 21215 SENLAC LANE 17048 JETTON ROAD 18201 TOWN HARBOUR ROAD 21123 TORRENCE CHAPEL ROAD 20142 WALTER HENDERSON ROAD 18920 HENRY LEE KNOX LANE

Sold & Under Contract Cornelius

19801 BUSTLE ROAD (UNDER CONTRACT) Â 16446 PINWHENNY ROAD (UNDER CONTRACT) 17812 JOHN CONNOR ROAD (UNDER CONTRACT) 20353 ENCLAVE OAKS COURT 16609 AMERICA CUP ROAD 17613 SPINNAKERS REACH DRIVE 16814 YAWL ROAD 18217 CAPTAINS COVE LANE 19001 PENINSULA POINT DRIVE

DAVIDSON Third Quarter Dip Gives Way To Fall Surge Davidson’s luxury market showed some mid-summer softness as a variety of factors such as record setting vacation travel led to a temporary downturn in contracts compared to last year, particularly in the mid-market between $500,000 and $1 million in list price. Fast forward to September and another Federal Reserve reduction and the market surged upward. After 25 sales for the last 60 day period, the quarter ended with another 20 luxury homes pending, pointing to a strong 4th quarter. Showing appointments over the past 60 days also spiked by 40% for this time of year albeit the million dollar market started to trend lower.

DAVIDSONÂ Q3 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS

LAST 60 DAYS

Listings Davidson

251 KIMBERLY ROAD 719 SPRING STREET 19213 DAVIDSON CONCORD ROAD 1530 MATTHEW MCCLURE CIRCLE

Sold Davidson 19940 River Falls Drive

18905 Craggy Meadows Court 13500 Robert Walker Drive Represented buyer

418 Walnut Street 261 Pat Stough Lane

MOORESVILLE Mooresville Sees Trend Reversal as Market Picks Up The luxury market in Mooresville tends to prove that areas around Lake Norman can move independently of each other.

During the early summer, Mooresville lagged other areas of the lake in unit sell-thru in comparison to 2018. Over the past 60 days, the mid-market segment just below $1 million rebounded to surpass last year’s summer totals with 61 homes closing vs 55 in 2018. The million dollar market lagged last year (9 closings vs 15), yet like other areas of the lake rebounded strongly in September and now shows 21 pending contracts over $1 million in list price. The ultra-luxe price range above $2 million has had an up and down year in Mooresville with no closings over the past 60 days while 2 homes went pending.

That range also saw a decline in showing interest from 88 showings last summer to 49 this year.

LAST 60 DAYS

MOORESVILLE Q3 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS

Listings Mooresville

109 CONWAY COURT 189 GUDGER ROAD 145 OLD POST ROAD 138 WHITE HORSE DRIVE 118 MADDAKET LOOP 116 NAUTICAL POINT COURT 168 BROAD SOUND

Sold Mooresville

 110 STANDISH LANE 190 QUAKER ROAD 108 STONEWALL BEACH LANE 111 STONEWALL BEACH LANE 122 WILD HARBOR ROAD 168 MAGNOLIA FARMS LANE (REPRESENTED BUYER) 169 SAILVIEW ROAD (REPRESENTED BUYER) 113 BRADFORD GLYN DRIVE (REPRESENTED BUYER) 100 PENINSULA DRIVE (REPRESENTED BUYER)

WEST SHORE Million Dollar Market Surges in Denver &Terrell The emerging west shore area of Lake Norman saw an up and down summer with just 1 home closing over $1 million in list price over the past 60 days, yet 3 homes just went under contract in September. Showings in that same price range have increased by 100% over the past 60 days in comparison to last year’s same early fall period. The mid-market range between $500,000 and $999,000 showed solid activity albeit down from last summer’s closing number of 31 units (vs 24 this past 60 days).

Interestingly, the showing activity on the west shore in the mid-market price range was equal to the activity in both Davidson and Cornelius, two traditional hot spots in the mid-market family price range.

LAST 60 DAYS

DENVER | WEST SHORE Â Q3 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS

Listings Denver/West Shore

2730 LAKE SHORE ROAD 1172 ALMERTON DRIVE #19 8236 BAY POINTE DRIVE 1821 DOGWOOD HILL DRIVE 7730 JUNIPER LANE 2381 SHANKLIN LANE #4 4081 SUMMIT RIDGE LANE 2810 CHERRY LANE 7687 BERMUDA HILLS LANE 8495 NORMAN ESTATES DRIVE

Sold & Under Contract Denver West Shore

7893 CHAPEL CREEK DRIVE 1486 VALHALLA DRIVE 4081 SUMMIT RIDGE LANE 3394 GOVERNORS ISLAND DRIVE 7982 BUENA VISTA DRIVE 6881 SEA GULL WAY 2649 SILVER STONE LANE 3423 GOVERNORS ISLAND DRIVE

NORTH SHORE North Shore Areas of Troutman & Sherrills Ford Continue Growth For the fourth quarter in a row, the north shore areas above the highway 150 bridge showed strong increases in closings with 15 luxury homes closing the past 60 days vs 7 during the same period last summer, an increase of over 100%. The area has another 11 homes pending to close moving into the 4th quarter, indicative of what should be a very strong end to 2019. Improved access to amenities as well as the completion of highway projects on both sides of the lake will benefit the northern communities, creating attractive investment opportunities where values are just starting to catch up with other higher density areas of Lake Norman.

NORTH SHORE Â Q3 HOMES SOLD & SHOWINGS

LAST 60 DAYS

Listings North Shore

3917 MILL RUN

527 CATSPAW ROAD

LAKE NORMAN MARKET FORECAST 4TH QUARTER STARTS STRONG AS LAKE NORMAN LUXURY MARKET SURGES

It’s been an interesting year for the Lake Norman luxury housing market. A recent Lakehomes.com research project pegged real estate values of listed homes at Lake Norman at 1.0 billion dollars, second in value in the U.S. to Lake Michigan’s shoreline property listings of $1.2 billion in value. Quite a remarkable surge in value over the past 20 years that has now established Lake Norman as one of the top inland water destinations in the U.S. The lake has been impacted by several unique factors in 2019. A very solid first half was temporarily interrupted by what appears to have been a record U.S. travel season in July. As school kicked back into session, showing activity surged, followed by the confidence boosting Federal Reserve rate cut, which seemed to have sent the message that calming jittery markets was a priority. Locally, the area continues to benefit from improved infrastructure and amenities, strong corporate relocation, and an attractive property taxation policy compared to higher taxed municipalities in the northeast, west and mid-Atlantic areas. A $2 million dollar home in some areas of the northeast might see property taxes as high as $50,000 annually, vs only a third of that locally at Lake Norman, and much of the prior expense is no longer tax deductible under federal law, accelerating the already solid migration from north to south.The lake currently has almost 200 luxury homes under contract over $500,000 in list price, including 51 over $1 million in value, rivaling spring selling activity as we move into the 4th quarter. Total luxury inventory levels stand at about 470 homes in that same overall segment (155 over $1 million still listed), resulting in differing conditions around the lake. The segment over $2 million has seen inventory slowly decline, particularly in Cornelius, while the ranges below that are showing less inventory and in some cases are seeing multiple offers. With the most recent 30 day showing trend running ahead of last year’s September numbers, it appears the positive vibe will continue at least into the holiday season.

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