Index of Economic Activity

Main results

5500 5000 4500 4000

1st qurt. 11

4th qurt. 10

3rd qurt. 10

1st qurt. 10

2nd qurt. 10

4th qurt. 09

3rd qurt. 09

1st qurt. 09

2nd qurt. 09

4th qurt. 08

3rd qurt. 08

1st qurt. 08

2nd qurt. 08

4th qurt. 07

3rd qurt. 07

1st qurt. 07

2nd qurt. 07

4th qurt. 06

3rd qurt. 06

1st qurt. 06

2nd qurt. 06

4th qurt. 05

3rd qurt. 05

1st qurt. 05

2nd qurt. 05

4th qurt. 04

3rd qurt. 04

1st qurt. 04

3000

2nd qurt. 04

3500

Development of market shares in terms of nationality (number plate of the tractor unit) %

50

40,7%, Germany

40

30 25,9%, Denmark 20

18,7%, Eastern Europe

10

7,2%, Netherlands 4,6%, Other countries 3,3%, Remaining Scandinavia qurt. 11 1st

3rd qurt. 10

1st qurt. 10

3rd qurt. 09

1st qurt. 09

3rd qurt. 08

1st qurt. 08

3rd qurt. 07

1st qurt. 07

3rd qurt. 06

1st qurt. 06

3rd qurt. 05

1st qurt. 05

0

1st

quarter 2011

INDEX OF ECONOMIC

International Transport Danmark

past years. Danish lorries have again captured a distinct second place with a market share amounting to 26 per cent after the German lorries, who remain in the lead with 40 per cent of traffic on the Danish-German country border, the Øresund Bridge and Scandlines’ ferry routes. The Eastern European lorries have had a remarkable decrease of 2.3 percentage point during the past year, while Danish lorries have gained market share of entire 4.5 percentage point

Lorries across the country border, with Scandlines A/S and across the Øresund Bridge

A

CTIVITY

The international lorry traffic across the country borders has during the past year moved away from the financial bottom level. The latest four quarters traffic is still on a level approx.

6 per cent higher than the period from 1st quarter 2009 until 1st quarter 2010. There has been counted a daily traffic amounting to 4,560 lorries during the 1st quarter 2011, and this is 2.3 per cent less than 4th quarter 2010. However, this decrease indicates a seasonal oscillation seen the

Contents Main results . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Economic growth prospects . 2-4 Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

International Transport Danmark, ITD, distributes an Index of Economic Activity every quarter, based on quarterly physical censuses of lorries crossing the country border of Southern Jutland and those using Scandlines A/S’ ferry routes on the Øresund and on the Fehmarn Belt. The Index of

Economic Activity contains surveys covering 80 per cent of the total lorry traffic into Denmark distributed on type and nationality of the vehicle.

The statistics gathered supplement the international lorry traffic records by ‘Danmarks Statistik’.

Lorry traffic across the country border, on the Scandlines A/S' ferry routes and across the Øresund Bridge In the 1st quarter 2010 4,560 lorries per day were counted on the Danish-German country border, on the Øresund Bridge and on Scandlines A/S' ferry routes in the direction of Denmark. Compared to the same quarter 2010, the traffic has increased by 7 per cent. Compared to the fourth quarter 2010, this census reveals a drop in the traffic of 2.3 per cent.

Development in the number of lorries in the direction of Denmark across the country border, the Øresund Bridge and on the Scandlines A/S' ferry routes 1st quarter

2nd quarter

3rd quarter

4th quarter

Number of

2007

4,934

5,049

4,954

5,096

lorries per day

2008

5,049

5,104

4,811

4,705

2009

4,288

4,347

4,438

4,391

2010

4,264

4,674

4,429

4,668

2011

4,560

Note: From 2009.09.01 Scandlines A/S manages the total traffic of lorries between Helsingør and Helsingborg. The time series have been adjusted back to 2005 according to this.

Nationality across the country border and on the Scandlines A/S' ferry routes Lorries registered in Germany represented the largest nationality group with 40.4 per cent of the traffic into Denmark in the 1st quarter 2011. Lorries registered in Denmark represented 25.9 per cent, lorries registered in Eastern Europe amounted to 18.7 per cent, and lorries registered

in the Netherlands amounted to 7.2 per cent. The counts on the Øresund Bridge are not classified according to nationality and are therefore not included by this recording.

In proportion to the same quarter in 2010, the market share of lorries regis-

tered in Denmark increased by 4.5 percentage point, the German market share dropped by 1.3 percentage point, the Dutch market share dropped by 0.8 percentage point, and the Eastern European registered lorries’ market share dropped by 2.3 percentage point.

Market shares in terms of nationality of the tractor unit in the 1st quarter 2011 as well as the development in proportion to the previous quarter and to the same quarter last year Country border + Scandlines A/S 1st quarter 2011

Eastern Europe

Other countries

Denmark

Germany

25.9%

40.4%

7.2%

3.3%

18.7%

4.6%

1.4%

1.0%

-0.1%

0.1%

-0.8%

-1.7%

4.5%

-1.3%

-0.8%

0.9%

-2.3%

-0.1%

Dev. 4th qurt. 10 - 1st qurt. 11 stated in percentage points qurt. 10 qurt. 11 Dev. stated in percentage points 1st

Remaining ScandiNetherlands navia

Total 100%

1st

Lorries above 20 metres across the Øresund Bridge and on the Scandlines A/S' ferry routes across the Øresund In November 2008 Denmark initiated a trial scheme with modular road trains on selected stretches.

On the Scandlines A/S ferry route between Helsingør and Helsingborg and on the Øresund Bridge there have been specific registrations of lorries above 20 metres – i.e. modular road trains and exceptional transports, with the exception of vehicle transports.

Number of lorries per day in each direction with the Scandlines A/S' ferry route between Helsingør and Helsingborg and on the Øresund Bridge as well as the share of lorries above 20 metres total length Lorries in total

Lorries Share of lorries above 20 metres* above 20 metres

2nd quarter 2009

928

31

3.3%

quarter 2009

951

26

2.8%

4th quarter 2009

912

29

3.2%

1st quarter 2010

950

30

3.1%

2nd quarter 2010

1,003

35

3.5%

3rd quarter 2010

984

33

3.4%

4th quarter 2010

973

37

3.8%

1st quarter 2011

978

38

3.9%

3rd

* The number of lorries above 20 metres consists of modular road trains and exceptional transports, with the exception of automobile transports

Number of lorries across the country border The total lorry traffic across the country border in northbound direction amounted to 2,870 lorries every day during the 1st quarter 2011. Of these 629 were registered in Denmark, 1,465 in Germany and 581 in Eastern Europe. From the 4th quarter 2010 to the 1st quarter 2011

the lorry traffic dropped by 3.6 per cent.

Within the last year, i.e. from the 1st quarter 2010 to the 1st quarter 2011 the traffic across the country border increased by 8.3 per cent. This corresponds to an increase of 220 lorries per day in northbound direction. In this

period the number of Danish registered lorries increased by 104 lorries per day.

The number of German registered lorries increased by 177 lorries per day, and the number of lorries registered in Eastern Europe increased by 27 per day.

Development in the number of lorries across the country border in northbound direction per day 1st quarter Number of lorries per day

2nd quarter

3rd quarter

4th quarter

2007

3,204

3,291

3,230

3,283

2008

3,311

3,257

3,117

3,052

2009

2,776

2,753

2,883

2,877

2010

2,650

2,956

2,776

2,978

2011

2,870

Nationality across the country border Since the counts from the 1st quarter 2005 lorries registered in Germany represented the largest group, and in the 1st quarter 2011 the share was 51 per cent of the total traffic. The Danish registered lorries represented the second largest group with 21.9 per cent. The Eastern Europe market share repre-

sented 20.2 per cent. The Dutch market share represented 4.7 per cent. The category Remaining Scandinavia representet a relatively modest group with a marked share of 0.4 per cent of the total lorry traffic across the country border.

Within the last year, i.e. from the 1st quarter 2010 to the 1st quarter 2011:

• the share of German registered lorries decreased by 0.8 percentage point • the share of the East European decreased by 0.8 percentage point • the share of Danish registered lorries increased by 1.2 percentage point • the share of Dutch registered lorries increased by 0.2 percentage point.

Market shares in terms of nationality of the tractor unit in the 1st quarter 2011 as well as the development in proportion to the previous quarter and to the same quarter last year

The country border

Remaining ScandiNetherlands navia

Eastern Europe

Other countries

Denmark

Germany

21.9%

51.0%

4.7%

0.4%

20.2%

1.8%

Dev. 4th qurt. 10 - 1st qurt. 11 stated in percentage points

2.5%

-4.1%

-2.8%

0.0%

2.7%

1.5%

Dev. 1st qurt. 10 - 1st qurt. 11 stated in percentage points

1.2%

-0.8%

0.2%

0.1%

-0.8%

0.2%

1st

quarter 2011

Total 100%

Type of vehicle across the country border Market shares in terms of type of vehicle in the 1st quarter 2011 and the development in proportion to the previous quarter and to the same quarter last year

Country border

1st quarter 2011

Development 4th qurt. 10 1st qurt. 11

Development 1st qurt. 10 1st qurt. 11

Tarpaulin/rigid sidewalls

53.3%

-1.6%

0.9%

Refrigerated vehicles

15.3%

2.9%

-1.0%

Container vehicles

7.1%

2.8%

2.9%

Tank/silo

8.4%

-0.6%

0.1%

Special vehicles

0.6%

-0.4%

0.1%

Solo tractors

2.7%

-0.1%

0.2%

2-axled with rigid platform

1.1%

1.4%

1.8%

Others

11.5%

-1.6%

-1.4%

Total

100%

Vehicles with tarpaulin/rigid sidewalls accounted for the largest share with 53.3 per cent in the 1st quarter 2011. The second largest group was "Refrigerated vehicles" with a share of 15.3 per cent.

The third largest group was "Others" with a market share of 11.5 per cent.

The tank/silo transports had a market share of 8.4 per cent.

The total lorry traffic in and out of Denmark

(1) Lorry transports across the country border in southbound direction have been calculated on the premise that the amount of the total lorry traffic in and out of the country is equally much.

Total amount of lorries per day into and out of Denmark in the 4th quarter 2009 and the 4th quarter

Lorries per day

Lorries per day

2010 distributed on the country border, the Øresund, the Fehmarn Belt and Kattegat/Skagerrak

Per cent

Censuses from the country border have been supplemented by censuses of the traffic across the Øresund Bridge made by Øresundsbro Konsortiet and surveys prepared by Danmarks Statistik of passages on the ferry routes. The recent surveys by Danmarks Statistik are from the 4th quarter 2010. The total lorry traffic to and from Denmark amounted to 10,190 lorries per day in the 4th quarter 2010. In proportion to the same quarter in 2009 the lorry traffic to and from Denmark increased by 6.4 per cent. During this period the lorry traffic across the Øresund (bridge and ferry) increased by 10.5 per cent.

The traffic across the Fehmarn Belt increased by 11.9 per cent. The ferry traffic between Jutland and Sweden/ Norway increased by 3.4 per cent from the 4th quarter 2009 to the 4th quarter 2010. The traffic across the country border increased by 4.6 per cent.

4th quarter 2010

Country border(1)

GedserKattegat/ Rostock Skagerrak RødbyPuttgarden

Øresund

Others

Total

Into

2,978

995

611

458

53

5,095

Out of

3.010

984

611

436

54

5,095

Total

5,988

1,979

1,222

894

107

10,190

4th quarter 2009

Country border(1)

GedserKattegat/ Rostock Skagerrak RødbyPuttgarden

Øresund

Others

Total

Into

2,877

878

546

440

47

4,788

Out of

2,848

913

546

425

56

4,788

Total

5,725

1,791

1,092

865

103

9,576

Devel. 4th qurt. 2009 - 4th qurt. 2010

Country border(1)

GedserKattegat/ Rostock Skagerrak RødbyPuttgarden

Øresund

Others

Total

Into

3.5%

13.3%

11.9%

4.1%

12.8%

6.4%

Out of

5.7%

7.8%

11.9%

2.6%

-3.6%

6.4%

4.6%

10.5%

11.9%

3.4%

3.9%

6.4%

Total

Method ITD’s Index of Economic Activity is worked out every quarter in the context of a uniform census method carried out manually at the Frøslev and Padborg entry points as well as on the Scandlines A/S ferry routes across the Øresund and the Fehmarn Belt.

The censuses cover 4 weeks per year – one counting per quarter. The weeks are chosen outside holidays and public holidays in the most important markets. For the 1st quarter 2011 the period chosen is week 10, i.e. from 7 March to 13 March 2011. The census is picked as random samples, where for each ferry route/entry point for each weekly counting 24 hours are taken out distributed over the week chosen. Censuses at the country border are only carried out on northbound transports, whilst counts on ferry routes are made in both directions.

Random samples are chosen so that the census can give a 95 per cent safe and true picture of lorry transports for the

week chosen and the selected traffic flows.

The nationality of a lorry is determined on basis of the nationality of the tractor unit’s number plate.

The nationality categories comprise three unambiguous categories: Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, and, furthermore, three grouped categories: Remaining Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and Other countries. The category "Remaining Scandinavia" comprises Finland, Norway and Sweden. Eastern Europe includes all the previous Eastern bloc states up to the Ural Mountains. Other countries comprise all other nationalities.

Counts were carried out in the following weeks: • 1st quarter 2007 ...............week 10 • 2nd quarter 2007 ................week 20 • 3rd quarter 2007 ...............week 38 • 4th quarter 2007 ................week 46 • 1st quarter 2008 ................week 10 • 2nd quarter 2008 ...............week 22

PUBLICATION

• • • • • • • • • • •

3rd quarter 2008 ...............week 4th quarter 2008 ................week 1st quarter 2009 ................week 2nd quarter 2009 ...............week 3rd quarter 2009 ...............week 4th quarter 2009 ................week 1st quarter 2010 ................week 2nd quarter 2010 ...............week 3rd quarter 2010 ................week 4th quarter 2010 ................week 1st quarter 2011.................week

The total traffic across the country border includes the entry points of Padborg, Frøslev, Rudbøl and Sæd. From previous censuses the share of lorry traffic across the country border via Rudbøl and Sæd amounted to 4.5 per cent. This share has been used as the basis for enumerating a total figure for Frøslev and Padborg.

Composition:

Force Technology

Layout:

ITD, International Transport Danmark

International Transport Danmark Lyren 1 . DK-6330 Padborg Tel. +45 7467 1233 . Fax +45 7467 4317 E-mail: itd@itd.dk www.itd.dk

38 46 10 20 38 46 10 18 38 46 10

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