International Relations Review: Fall 2019

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS REVIEW

Shifting Perspectives

The Global Politics of the Education Inequality in Asia Amazon Rainforest

Search in Space or Sacred Land

The International Relations Review

1 Editor’s Note: Dear All,

We are thrilled to have worked with such a phenomenal team of young international relations professionals to put together yet another issue of the International Relationship Reviews.

We live in an increasingly complex world, but as you will find upon reading this issue, many of these problems are of our own making. Whether it is declining resources, irreplaceable damage done to the Amazon, or the spread of dengue to vulnerable populations in Nepal, there is much to worry about when considering the future of the world.

Simultaneously, there is much to be hopeful about. As youth protests in Moscow challenge an autocratic government, and #BlueforSudan draws attention to the victims of an uprising.

We hope that you enjoy this issue and leave it more aware of the world that we currently live in.

Best, Kavya Verma and Soomin Cho Co-Editors in Chief, IR Review

03 The Americas 05

Search in Space or Sacred Land

09

The Global Politics of the Amazon Rainforest

13

The Humanitarian, Environmental, & Economic Importance of Incorporating Urban Slums

Fall 2019

2

17 Europe 18

The Arctic Curtain: An End to Regional Expectionalism

22

Consequences of the Evolving Social Contract of Moscow and Its Youth Relations

CONTENTS

25 Africa 26

Engine of Growth: The DRC and the World’s Upcoming Cobalt Crisis

29

#BlueforSudan: The Role of Social Media in Giving Awareness To - And Understanding the Aftermath of - The 2019 Sudanese Uprising

33 Asia 34

Education Inequality in Asia: India and Singapore

39

Xi, China’s Space Dream, and the Strategic Support Force

43

Climate Change and the Spread of Dengue in Nepal

47 Global

48 How the US-China Race to 5G leaves Europe Scrambling 52 The Growing Partnership Between Israel and India 58 Using Europe to Advance China’s Industrial Policy

The Americas

3

Photo by Morgan Peterson

Search in Space or Sacred Land

by Kaylin Ikeda

The Global Politics of the Amazon Rainforest

by Caroline Koehl

The Humanitarian, Environmental, & Economic Importance of Incorporating Urban Slums

by Hannah Weber

4

The International Relations Review

5

Search in Space or Sacred Land

by Kaylin Ikeda

The São Paulo metropolitan region is not just Brazil’s highest populated urban area, but is also the largest city proper in the Americas and in the Southern Hemisphere with a an estimated population of 21.7 million (Jan 2019). The Rio Tietê (pronounced tchee-uh-TEY) runs in a northwest direction through both the state of São Paulo and the megacity of São Paulo. It rises in the coastal escarpment Serra do Mar in the eastern Brazilian Highlands and flows 700 miles to meet the Paraná River. Projeto Tietê is an ongoing effort that began in 1991 with the goal of providing sanitary services to the people of the São Paulo Metropolitan Area while cleaning the highly polluted urban Rio Tietê. The project is largely financed by the Inter-American Development Bank (IBD). The historical context, process, shortcomings, and benefits of

Photo by Kaylin Ikeda

Projeto Tietê are analyzed in this paper.

The Economic & Humanitarian Benefits of Sanitation is not only a local water management issue, but is also part of global movements toward sustainable development.

In 2015, the United Nations assembled the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

This includes the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which call all nations to action.

The SDGs recognize that ending poverty goes in tandem with “strategies that improve health and education, reduce inequality, and spur economic growth--all while tackling climate change and working to preserve our oceans and forests.” Sanitation is SDG six--Clean Water and Sanitation-but also directly and indirectly relates to other SDGs: 1) No Poverty; 3) Good Health and Well-Being; 5) Gender Equality;

8) Decent Work and Economic Growth; 9) Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure; 10) Reduced Inequalities; 11) Sustainable Cities and Communities; 14) Life Below Water.

Unfortunately, as of 2015, only 46.8% of Brazil’s population had access to sewage services and only 62.9% of that waste was treated. In a World Bank study on sanitation, Brazil was ranked 112th. Forbes cites the historic lack of sanitation as an inhibitor on Brazil’s economic growth, but acknowledges that efforts are being made on the national and municipal levels to invest more in sanitation projects. In 2007, Brazil initiated a program called Programa de Aceleração de Crescimento (PAC), or Growth Acceleration Program, to facilitate the “planning and execution of major social, urban, logistics and energy infrastructure projects in the country, contributing to

Fall 2019 its accelerated and sustainable development.”

Though this movement is promising, Brazil has a long way to go to universalize sanitation to gain the benefits of both a healthier population and cleaner waterways.

Projeto Tietê: “Salvem O Rio Tietê” In the 1980’s the Brazilian government began to change its tune regarding environmental protections and favelas. To protect watersheds from construction, environmental laws were passed (though settlements continued to form). Official Brazilian policy shifted from slum eradication toward slum upgrading, a policy shift that is socially, politically, and economically wiser as well as more humane and forwardthinking. São Paulo became a leader in this policy shift. In 2002, São Paulo adopted the 2001 federal enactment of “City Statute” that requires that cities enact master plans. The “City Statute” also “provided a set of tools that municipalities can use to control land transfer and seek to assure legal tenure for tenants. . . .One of the most useful tools is letting cities create ‘zones of special interest’ for disorganized slums, formally recognizing their existence and qualifying them for social services.” Citizengovernment management councils and the São Paulo Municipal Housing Secretariat that was created in 2006 help to facilitate greater communication between citizens and political bodies.

Bottom-up social mobilization, perhaps encouraged

by São Paulo’s activist stance, incited the movement to clean the Tietê and provide sanitation.

6 In the 1990s, a petition started by the city’s newspaper, O Estado de S. Paulo, garnered 1.2 million signatures, prompting the São Paulo State Government to launch Projeto Rio Tiête. This ambitious, ongoing project is one of the largest environmental projects in Latin America.

In 1985, Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo (Sabesp), the state-owned water and waste management company, began to investigate how they could address two problems: low sewer coverage and lack of treatment. At the time, only 64% of the metropolitan service area had sewer coverage and of the waste collected, 81% remained untreated. The issue of sanitation would be addressed by expansion of sewer connections, networks, interceptors, treatment plants, and disposal of residual solids, alongside a program for control of industrial contamination. The project’s aim is to collect and treat waste from about 18 million residents of the Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP).

Projeto Tietê is split into three stages. Stage I is completed and in operation and has increased the proportion of wastewater treated from 19% in 1992 to 45% by 1998. Stage I of Projeto Tietê involved implementation of interceptors to carry wastes from collection points to treatment plants. Three Estações de Tratamento de Esgotos (ETEs), or sewage treatment plants, were constructed at ABC, Parque Novo Mundo, and São Miguel and ETE Barueri was scaled up. 1,850 km of trunk-line collector networks and 250 thousand home connections

were added. This phase removed 25% of both industrial and domestic material discharged into the river. However, the river was still not clean and could not support aquatic life, though there was minor odor reduction. Stage I cost $1.1B USD with $900B USD invested by the IDB and $200B USD from “other sources.”

Stage II was conducted from 2000 until 2008 and involved increasing and optimizing the updated collection and transportation system for full use of treatment capacity. An additional 1,600 km of trunk-line network and 290,000 connections were installed.

400,000 households are now connected to the sanitation system with collection services available to 82% of Paulistanos. Stage II cost $500M USD with $200M USD invested by the IBD and $300M USD from local sources.

Stage III was conducted from 2009 until 2015 with the objective of improving the environmental quality from Bacia to Alto Tiete in the RMSP. Over 1.5 million people benefit from collection, and over 3 million people benefit from treatment services.[38] Stage III cost $1.05B and has the most diverse investment pool: $800M USD was invested by an IBD program, $600M USD of that directly from the IBD and $200M USD from Sabesp resources guaranteed by the state government.

Stage IV was approved by the IBD in October 2018.

The total cost is predicted to be $500M USD with $200M USD from “country counterpart financing.”[40] The fund is cited as “Ordinary Capital.” Stage IV’s Environmental and Social Impact

7 8 signed a hosting agreement in case Maunakea failed; this 75year bilateral agreement approved construction and headquarters in La Palma and Tenerife, another one of the Canary Islands. La Palma appears to be the next best option, but other considerations for potential sites include locations in India, China, Chile, and Mexico; ultimately, however, La Palma is the immediate alternative.

After many case hearings and drafts of permit proposals, on October 30, 2018, the Hawai‘i Supreme Court ruled in favor of reaffirming the Board of Land and Natural Resources’ decision to grant a construction permit for the Thirty Meter Telescope on Maunakea. On July 10, 2019, Governor David Ige and TIO announced construction would begin July 15; the turnaround sparked extreme controversy. There are many international players with high stakes and vested interests in the Maunakea, and as the list grows, so does the controversy surrounding the Thirty Meter Telescope.

On one hand, there is an argument in support of science and the limitless opportunities that this astronomical endeavor promises.

On the other hand, there is concern surrounding human rights violations and the preservation of indigenous culture. Both sides have validity and passion, and the decision-making process will continue to be complex and contentious.

Activists believe development on Maunakea not only violates indigenous rights and harms the natural environment, but it also ignores the important Photo by Nikta Khani

role Mauankea plays in native Hawaiian culture and religion. This is a common hardship experienced by the native Hawaiian community, as their concerns and values have been continuously marginalized throughout imperialism, colonization, and exploitation.

Those opposing TMT are not solely opposing the telescope – after all, there are already thirteen telescopes on Maunakea’s summit -- or its education potential; they are opposing the fact that indigenous populations have not been granted the right to reject developments imposed by foreign entities. Although Spain’s Canary Islands are comparable to Hawai‘i, Maunakea is vastly superior, which is why those in favor are pushing so hard; however, knowing there is an alternative option where construction can commence immediately adds fuel to the opposition argument. Activists also bring to question the preservation of the natural environment on Maunakea, as it is home to many indigenous and endangered species.

The people are not fighting the innovation, they support it, but not at the cost of their cultural beliefs.

The proposal itself was a slap in the face. While native Hawaiians should be given an equal voice in the matter, their opposition to the construction of a legally permitted project is technically a civil disobedience against a legal order. The lines of right and wrong are becoming increasingly blurred -- while their sentiments are valid, they are technically still breaking the law.

The majority of those in opposition to the TMT development are part of the native

The International Relations Review The International Relations Review Hawaiian community, but there are also astronomers and other people who stand in solidarity with the Hawaiians. Almost 1,000 astronomers signed a petition to denounce the criminalization of these protectors, and they want to open platforms of communication without any law enforcement or military personnel.

Those supportive of the TMT in the name of science argue for the uncapped opportunities the telescope would provide through discoveries for humankind. The Thirty Meter Telescope is said to foster the capability to “unlock mysteries of the cosmos, enabling astronomers to not only study objects in our Milky Way but peer some 13 billion lightyears away.”

Those in favor also recognize the TMT will create vast opportunities for the economy, infrastructure, and intellectual development of Hawai‘i.

The Thirty Meter Telescope officials promised to invest in Hawai‘i STEM education, which could be a great opportunity to expand intellectual capital and innovation, particularly for future Hawaiian generations. For example, the TMT launched the THINK Fund in order to assist students in STEM, an initiative that contains an annual contribution of $1 million over its 19 year lease with the University of Hawai‘i Hilo. Such funds create a platform for increased feasibility for scholarships, STEM learning grans, classroom grants, and even internship programs that benefit students, teachers, and schools. The TMT would also pay an annual lease of $300,000, steadily increasing over time until it caps at $1 million upon completion; of this lease, 80%

Fall 2019 Fall 2019 will go toward care and conservancy of the mountain, and the remaining 20% would go to the Office of Hawaiian Affairs. This opportunity is huge for the economy because it is another source of revenue, decreasing Hawai’i’s dependence on tourism.

Proponents advocated that the TMT would create many jobs: approximately 300 during construction and 140 during operation. A specific program offered by the University of Hawai‘i Hilo, Hawai‘i Community College, Department of Education, and the TMT will create a workforce pipeline program that prepares local residents for various scientific field positions with fair wages.

The TMT Board of Directors also addressed various environmental concerns regarding the telescope construction. Its new design will leave zero waste on the mountain in order to minimize its footprint; this design will also ensure only 14% of the island will be able to see the Thirty Meter Telescope; therefore it will not obstruct views, and $800,000, as stated above, will go toward stewardship of the mountain in order to prevent any risk to endangered wildlife. Another measure will minimize energy consumption through solar hot water systems, solar panels, and other energy-saving devices. A final environmental issue addresses the aquifer, a primary drinking water source, in which TMT stated no wells are near the summit and there will be a zero-discharge wastewater system, where all waste will be transported off the mountain for treatment and proper disposal.

While this fight involves science and sovereignty, the

overarching matter is how to manage resources and cohesively align the laws and values of Hawai‘i to connect a past “where the state has subjected its indigenous people to continued mismanagement of its lands with its uncertain future.” A recent statewide poll by Civil Beat in 2019 reveals out of 1,367 registered voters in Hawai‘i, 64% were in favor of the telescope versus the 31% opposing it. However, of the native Hawaiians surveyed in a poll, 48% oppose the TMT and 44% support it. The Civil Beat poll contrasts the Honolulu Star-Advertiser poll, which occurred only a year earlier in March 2018 and revealed 72% of native Hawaiian registered voters support the telescope, 23% were in opposition, and 5% were undecided.

Now, the problem is at a standstill. After the news first broke, many native Hawaiians flocked to Maunakea to protect their sacred land against the state. Activists blocked the road to Maunakea’s summit to prevent construction workers from accessing the summit to begin the TMT development.

Since the protesters abandoned their cars along Saddle Road to protest the telescope, police were called, but agreed to temporarily leave as long as the protectors moved their cars. Committed to peaceful protests, some activists then chained themselves to cattle grates to prevent construction crews from passing, while others held up banners, and some even sang ancient Hawaiian songs and chants. The activists are trying to convey that they are not fighting the telescope and science innovation; rather, they are defending their land and heritage.

Activists on other islands

8 9 like Oahu and Maui also stood in solidarity, causing traffic jams to the point where Governor Ige declared a public emergency from unsafe conditions. About 33 Hawaiians, many of them elders, were then arrested and given citations for obstructing the operation.[34] Many celebrities have also brought this issue to light, like Scherzinger, Jason Mamoa, and Dwayne Johnson, who paid visits to Hawai‘i to connect with their island roots; Bruno Mars, Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also shared their support on social media platforms.

After eleven long weeks, there construction remains stagnant. However, as of September 30, Hawaii County Mayor Harry Kim issued a plan that places future planning on Maunakea in the hands of Legislature. Kim reiterated a promise to decommission five current telescopes amid the construction of the Thirty Meter Telescope and notes the high lease that will be paid. Mayor Harry Kim also conveys pledges by Governor Ige and Lassner to work with the Legislature on this initiative, where they aim to establish a cultural facility and ensure the native Hawaiian voice will not be silenced through management restructuring.

The state and Hawai‘i County have spent at least $7.8 million on law enforcement alone for Maunakea, a significant sum that’s put enormous pressure on the economy. A decision needs to be made immediately, but at what price? This controversial transnational project is one with no distinct or explicit path to solution.

The International Relations Review

9

Global Politics of the Amazon

by Caroline Koehl

The Amazon Rainforest is one of the largest, most significant areas of wilderness left on the planet. It is environmentally significant not only to the countries which house it, but also to the world at large, as it provides important ecosystem services, like carbon sequestration, that matter for the entire planet. Furthermore, the Amazon has a special importance to both the economic growth and the social and cultural background of the countries that house it, and the world depends on its material resources as well. While the Amazon exists in nine countries, Brazil houses about 60% of the total land, and their politics have an outsized impact on the status of the rainforest. The enormous amount of human dependence on the Amazon rainforest often creates tense political situations, and disputes over who owns the rainforest, for what we should be using it, and how to solve problems that arise are often international in nature due to the Amazon’s global significance.

In many of these disputes, the question of who owns the Amazon is fundamental, and the various answers could yield dramatically different outcomes for the rainforest. Currently, legal domain of the Amazon falls under the official governments of the countries in which it is located, including the administration of President Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. While this is the internationally recognized ownership arrangement, there are several disputes on behalf of the millions of indigenous people who lived there before the arrival of Euro-

pean settlers. Because the Amazon is the ancestral land for numerous indigenous tribes, and because they were there long before Europeans, many assert that they have a more legitimate claim to the land. However, the sheer disparity in power between the Brazilian government and said indigenous groups ensures that, for the time being, the government asserts their ownership of the Amazon and retains absolute control over the rainforest.

Jair Bolsonaro, elected president of Brazil in 2018, is a right-wing populist interested in the economic development of Brazil, including the Amazonian region.

For years, private individuals and corporations, predominantly foreign investors, have had enormous influence over the Amazon because of long standing economic involvement, and the Bolsonaro administration has fully embraced such private interests in the rainforest for their growth potential. Regardless of the fact that Brazil exerts legal domain over the rainforest, private investors also consider themselves to be proprietors of the Amazon.

Essentially, the situation regarding the ownership and control of the Amazon is a complex system of various interests and influences weighing on the decision making process. Thus, when conflicts or problems arise in the Amazon, it quickly becomes an entangled, international situation.

One persistent contest in the Amazon rainforest is that of the agricultural industry. Beef and soy are both vital industries for Brazil’s economy, and, resultantly, they

Photo by Rebecca Giovannetti

Fall 2019

10 often gain priority status from Brazil’s government because of their profitability. The current Bolsonaro administration is no exception to this rule. One of the first moves Bolsonaro made in office was to transfer the certification of indigenous lands, which are mainly in the Amazon, as protected territories to the Agricultural Ministry, which is strongly influenced by the Agribusiness lobby.

Indigenous people are some of the greatest protectors and advocates for the conservation of the Amazon rainforest, and by putting their land under the supervision and control of the Agricultural

“Thus, when conflicts or problems arise in the Amazon, it quickly becomes an, entangled, international situation.”

Ministry, Bolsonaro threatens not only the safety and sovereignty of the indigenous people, but also the preservation of the land on which they live. Bolsonaro has claimed publicly, signifying his desire to shift the use of indigenous land towards agricultural development, that “All those reserves stymie our development.” This issue has created a deep rift between indigenous nations and the Bolsonaro government, as he has favored the agricultural industry over not only the sanctity of indigenous land but over

the preservation of the rainforest as well.

Furthermore, threatening indigenous reserves is not the only dispute agribusiness has created surrounding the fate of the Amazon. According to the Yale School of Forestry, cattle ranching accounts for 80% of deforestation in the Amazon, and the increasing demand for soy has led to an increased interest in utilizing Amazonian land for soy growing.

Deforestation is a key contemporary environmental issue which, although it occurs at the local level, has global impacts such as the release of stored carbon into the atmosphere, the removal of carbon sinks for future emissions, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss.

Because the Amazon is the largest rainforest remaining on Earth, the consequences of deforestation there are magnified to an extreme level.

Under the Bolsonaro administration, deforestation in the Amazon has increased, and this trend does not show signs of stopping. Bolsonaro considers the Amazon as a development opportunity, as evidenced by his recent interest in reviving an old, out of service highway running through the rainforest.

By reconstructing the highway, the administration will open the door to development projects along the highway and throughout the rainforest, further accelerating deforestation. However, legally recognized agriculture and development projects are only partially to blame, as illegal deforestation is another issue facing the forest.

Illegal deforestation in the Amazon is driven by criminal networks in Brazil, and it is a lucrative business. Said criminal networks engage in land grabbing and illegal logging, stopping ob-

The International Relations Review

12 11 stacles by any means necessary.

This has gone so far as to include threatening, attacking, and even killing activists, indigenous people, and government officials who have tried to stop them; most of these criminal actions go uninvestigated and unpunished. Bolsonaro claims that poverty drives citizens to these extreme actions, but opposition groups counter by saying that Bolsonaro’s anti-environmental rhetoric encourages their behavior.

Regardless of what causes this illegal activity, it is not sufficiently controlled. While Bolsonaro argues that there are not enough resources in Brazil to increase vigilance on this issue, environmentalists argue that this is an essential service and that the government should use any means necessary to curb this activity. Furthermore, the Bolsonaro administration has actually cut down on the seizure of illegal timber since 2018, and they do not show signs of exhaustively pursuing these criminals. Accordingly, illegal deforestation is a rapidly growing phenomenon showing no signs of slowing.

A third, related contributor to deforestation is the recent bout of fires which surged in the Summer of 2019. Many of these fires, however, are not natural. Rather, they are linked to the same criminal networks practicing illegal logging in the rainforest. After they have secured the logging products they desire, the criminals burn the remaining vegetation. Addition-

ally, some of the fires have been set by farmers looking to illegally clear more land to cultivate. Once the fires are set, however, they are uncontrolled and can spread in certain circumstances. Even more concerning, these fires have been occurring at an unprecedented volume this year. By the end of August 2019, the reported number was over 76,000 fires. The deforestation in the Amazon, especially that caused by these fires, has not only caused ecological devastation in the Amazon, but it has also sparked a monumental international dispute over Bolsonaro’s handling of the issue.

Bolsonaro’s lax handling of the fires in the Amazon, coupled with his general lack of concern over deforestation and degradation in the rainforest, has led to an escalating international feud with more environmentally minded leaders.

The most prominent among these disputes is that between Bolsonaro and the French President Emmanuel Macron. The feud began when Macron, in addressing the G7, called the fires a global crisis and called upon the G7 to address them. Bolsonaro, angered by Macron’s claims, accused him of having a “colonialist mindset” for meddling in Brazil’s internal affairs.

The disagreement quickly became personal as well. Macron accused Bolsonaro of lying about his commitment to fight climate change, and Bolsonaro made comments mocking Macron’s wife, Brigitte

Macron’s appearance. While this interpersonal feud seems to be little more than poor diplomatic practice, the argument quickly escalated in scale and importance once the questions of aid and trade deals were involved.

The question of foreign aid to help fight the fires and protect the rainforest directly relates to the personal disagreements among Macron and Bolsonaro. Soon after this quarrel began, the G7 nations offered Brazil aid worth over $22 million in order to help combat the fires. This aid Bolsonaro rejected this aid, a decision due in no small part to the prior dispute between Macron and Bolsonaro, as Bolsonaro said that he would only accept the aid on the conditions that Macron retract his statements and recognize Brazil’s absolute sovereignty over the Amazon. Because Macron rejected these conditions, Bolsonaro refused the aid, a move which prioritized nationalist pride and sovereignty over conservation.

This refusal is significant because the Bolsonaro administration has slashed the budget for governmental agencies concerned with the environment, therefore aid is a crucial part to fighting the fires. Because of this need for resources, Bolsonaro ultimately accepted $12 million in aid from the British government in a bilateral deal. The decision was made in such a way so that Bolsonaro could assure both his followers and the other leaders on the world stage that Brazil’s sovereignty, a

Fall 2019 key priority for the administration throughout this situation, was intact.

Another great impact of this disagreement is that France warned that they would not ratify a trade deal with South American nations, the EU-Mercosur deal, until Brazil agreed to help fight the fires, and Ireland made the same announcement. The deal, a landmark free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur states which has taken 20 years to negotiate, would remove the significant trade barriers existing between the two bodies. Moreover, the Austrian parliament recently rejected the deal, citing a lack of environmental protections in it. Thus, because Austria is a definitive no vote on the deal, they haveby blocked it from passing Photo the unanimous voting requirement in the EU before France or Ireland could.

Aside from Macron, other world leaders, both in and out of the G7, have expressed similar concerns surrounding the health and preservation of the Amazon rainforest. One example of this is the Finnish government’s recent call upon the EU to ban Brazilian beef imports. Popular action across the world, mainly in the form of protests, has surged in the wake of the recent fires as well. Environmental groups continue to pressure their own domestic governments in addition to that of Brazil to take action in preserving the so called “lungs of the world.” While this

12 action has increased awareness surrounding the issues facing the Amazon, and in some cases influenced governance, the Brazilian government remains unreceptive to outside influence.

Furthermore, the Bolsonaro administration does have one powerful ally in the midst of international critique: President Trump.

Bolsonaro, commonly called “Trump of the Tropics,” has a fair amount of ideological overlap with Trump, so his praise is less than surprising, yet meaningful nonetheless. On August 27, Trump tweeted his support for the administration, stating that Bolsonaro “is working very hard on the Amazon fires and in all respects doing a great job for the people of Brazil,” and that “He and his country have the full and complete support of the USA!” Although the medium of Trump’s delivery was Twitter, his message was not lost: the Trump administration is an ally of Bolsonaro, and they do not condemn his handling of the Amazon fires like other international leaders.

Clearly, the Amazon is much more than just a rainforest to the international community.

Disputes over the treatment and division of the land have historically divided the world along familiar lines: the developed world versus the developing world, indigenous people versus settler colonists, conservationists versus developers.

These divisions continue, and they only grow stronger with an admin-

istration which clearly sides with development interests. Moreover, in today’s age, the Amazon has been the focal point for disagreements among several world powers (and their leaders) in such a way that it has changed the nature of their relationships. The issue of the fires has caused spats between leaders which have led to more grave impacts. It has also split traditional ideological partners like the US and France on the issue of the environment.

Interpersonal arguments and ideological standoffs are nothing new to the world of international relations, but the Amazon poses a uniquely challenging situation. If the Bolsonaro administration remains diametrically opposed to indigenous people and other environmental advocates in his own country, and if international leaders continue escalating petty disagreements escalate to extreme levels, the Amazon will only become more of a flashpoint, leading to prolonged, polarized disputes on how to utilize and protect it. Furthermore, failure to cooperate on such time sensitive issues as deforestation and fires will undoubtedly result in rapid shrinking and degradation in the Amazon, or possibly even permanent damage or loss of that important social, economic, and environmental resource.

Photo by Elisa Cifello

13

The International Relations Review

The Humanitarian, Environmental, & Economic Importance of Incorporating Urban Slums Case Study: Projeto Tietê River Cleanup in São Paulo

by Hannah Weber

Photo by Brian McHale

Fall 2019 The São Paulo metropolitan region is not just Brazil’s highest populated urban area but is also the largest city proper in the Americas and in the Southern Hemisphere. The Rio Tietê runs in a northwest direction through both the state and megacity of São Paulo. It rises in the coastal escarpment Serra do Mar in the eastern Brazilian Highlands and flows 700 miles to meet the Paraná River. Projeto Tietê is an ongoing effort that began in 1991 with the goal of providing sanitary services to the people of the São Paulo Metropolitan Area while cleaning the highly polluted urban Rio Tietê.

The project is largely financed by the Inter-American Development Bank.

Sanitation is both a local and global water management movement toward sustainable development. In 2015, the United Nations assembled the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This includes the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which call all nations to action. The SDGs recognize that ending poverty goes in tandem with “strategies that improve health and education, reduce inequality, and spur economic growth--all while tackling climate change and working to preserve our oceans and forests.”

Sanitation is SDG six--Clean Water and Sanitation--but also directly and indirectly relates to other SDGs as well.

Unfortunately, in a World Bank study on sanitation, Brazil was ranked 112th. Forbes cites the historic lack of sanitation as an inhibitor on Brazil’s economic growth but acknowledges that efforts are being made on the national and municipal levels to invest more in sanitation projects. In 2007, Brazil initiated the Growth Acceleration

14 Program, to facilitate the “planning and execution of major social, urban, logistics and energy infrastructure projects in the country, contributing to its accelerated and sustainable development.” Though this movement is promising, Brazil has a long way to go to universalize sanitation for healthier population and cleaner waterways.

In the 1980’s the Brazilian government began to improve environmental protections. For example, to protect watersheds from construction official Brazilian policy shifted from slum eradication toward slum upgrading, a policy shift that is socially, politically, and economically more forwardthinking. In 2002, São Paulo adopted the 2001 federal enactment of “City Statute” that requires that cities enact master plans. Citizengovernment management councils and the São Paulo Municipal Housing Secretariat that was created in 2006 helped to further facilitate greater communication between citizens and political bodies.

Bottom-up social mobilization, perhaps encouraged by São Paulo’s activist stance, incited the movement to clean the Tietê and provide sanitation. In the 1990s, a petition started by the city’s newspaper, O Estado de S. Paulo, garnered 1.2 million signatures, prompting the São Paulo State Government to launch Projeto Rio Tiête. This ambitious, ongoing project is one of the largest environmental projects in Latin America.

In 1985, Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo, the state-owned water and waste management company, began to investigate how they could address two problems: low sewer coverage and lack of

treatment. At the time, only 64% of the metropolitan service area had sewer coverage and of the waste collected, 81% remained untreated. The issue of sanitation would be addressed by expansion of sewer connections, networks, interceptors, treatment plants, and disposal of residual solids, alongside a program for control of industrial contamination. The project’s aim is to collect and treat waste from about 18 million residents of the Região Metropolitana de São Paulo.

Projeto Tietê is split into three stages. Stage I is completed and in operation and has increased the proportion of wastewater treated from 19% in 1992 to 45% by 1998.

Stage I of Projeto Tietê involved implementation of interceptors to carry wastes from collection points to treatment plants. Three Estações de Tratamento de Esgotos (ETE), or sewage treatment plants, were constructed at ABC, Parque Novo Mundo, and São Miguel and ETE Barueri was scaled up. 1,850 km of trunk-line collector networks and 250 thousand home connections were added. This phase removed 25% of both industrial and domestic material discharged into the river.

However, the river was still not clean and could not support aquatic life, though there was minor odor reduction. Stage I cost $1.1B USD with $900B USD invested by the IDB and $200B USD from “other sources.”

Stage II was conducted from 2000 until 2008 and involved increasing and optimizing the updated collection and transportation system for full use of treatment capacity. An additional 1,600 km of trunk-line network and 290,000 connections were installed.

400,000 households are now

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15

Photo by Nikta Khani

connected to the sanitation system with collection services available to 82% of Paulistanos. Stage II cost $500M USD with $200M USD invested by the IBD and $300M USD from local sources.

Stage III was conducted from 2009 until 2015 with the objective of improving the environmental quality from Bacia to Alto Tiete in the RMSP. Over 1.5 million people benefit from collection, and over 3 million people benefit from treatment services. Stage III cost $1.05B and has the most diverse investment pool: $800M USD was invested by an IBD program, $600M USD of that directly from the IBD and $200M USD from Sabesp resources guaranteed by the state government.

Stage IV was approved by the IBD in October 2018. The total cost is predicted to be $500M USD with $200M USD from “country counterpart financing.” The fund is

cited as “Ordinary Capital.” Stage IV’s Environmental and Social Impact Category is rated B. A Consulta Indigena with the Guaraní tribe and Environmental and Social Analyses were conducted previous to project approval, which are both promising signs for the future of Stage IV of Projeto Tietê.

Projeto Tietê was of great scale, but there are also major shortcomings. The complexity and difficulty of installing sanitation in such a massive city for irregular housing constructed on hillsides cannot be underscored enough.

Even though the project is at its final stage, not everyone is receiving adequate water access. Similar to how a home with a single light-bulb may be considered “electrified” by some standards, residents living at the end of water distribution networks are technically receiving water, but in small amounts and shortages. The 2,500 residents

Favela do Moinho, the last favela in central São Paulo, rely on one 300m pipeline a few centimeters wide, illicitly connected to the mains in 2006. Households fashion their own connections to that slim pipe, but those at the end of the line beyond water flow collect water from a tap in the center of the favela settlement.

Analysis of project success thus far is complicated. 1,200 industries have agreed to cease discharging waste into the Tietê, corresponding with 90% of all industrial pollution. The IBD’s Project Profile states that sanitation services have been provided to 540,000 families, increasing coverage from 70% to 84% over Stage I and Stage II. Treatment of collected wastes increased to 70%. At the beginning of Stage I, 800 tons of domestic waste and 350 tons of industrial waste were entering the Rio Tietê every day.

Stages I and II reduced the load

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Photo by Nikta Khani

of domestic waste by 500 tons/day and Stage III aims to decrease that amount by an additional 103 tons/ day. These statistics scream positive improvement but bely reality, which can be glimpsed through news articles and interviews.

In 2012, an article from the The New York Times said the “painstakingly slow project” has been “going swimmingly” according to political leaders, yet at that point during Stage III, four million people still were lacking basic sanitation.

However, the article’s interviewee, a diver who was hired largely to unclog drainage gates, has noted capybaras, alligators, and herons, higher-level organisms that would not be able to survive without lowerlevel organisms such as plants and fish to sustain them, meaning that the river may be making its way back to sustaining life. The article further states that “by [the diver’s] own reckoning, the city’s rivers are a

bit cleaner than they once were.”

The perspective of favela residents is indicative of the project’s real human impact. Jardim Iporanga, a neighborhood of scattered housing “located in a protected watershed with a stream that feeds São Paulo’s main water reservoir,” lacked sewage treatment and was polluting the watershed. Now, with community leadership, structured communication, and policy that works to integrate slums, new unconventional housing that further threatens the water supply is discouraged and presented.

“Nowadays it’s paradise here,” stated the Jardim Iporanga association president, Sandra Regina, referring to there finally being clean, treated water.

Ultimately, Projeto Tietê is far from perfect and needs to be further implemented in Stage IV to serve more of the community. The standards of what it means to have

sanitation and water supply should suit the needs of the community and families rather than just enough to call a project “successful.” However, despite the shortcomings of Projeto Tietê large scale sanitation projects should still be undertaken to benefit the most vulnerable populations that are being deprived basic public services. Additionally, cities should promote formation of community associations to better identify issues. Especially in such a massive city, neighborhood organization is critical to understand what city planners and officials may not see.

Though there is likely irreversible environmental damage, further cleaning of the Tietê and expansion of sanitation services is still possible.

As long as São Paulo remains responsive to the demands of neighborhood associations and gives attention to the poorest communities, there is hope for progress.

Europe

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Photo by Alice Yih

The Arctic Curtain: An End to Regional Expectionalism

by Andrey Grashkin

Consequences of the Evolving Social Contract of Moscow and Its Youth Relations

by Michelle Ramiz

18

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The Arctic Curtain: An End to Regional Expectionalism

by Andrey Grashkin

Photo by Rebecca Giovannetti “They’ve got all their chess pieces on the board right now, and we’ve got a pawn and maybe a rook. If you look at this Arctic game of chess, they’ve got us at checkmate right at the beginning”. This austere warning

by Admiral Paul F. Zukunft, 25th Commandant of the United States Coast Guard, audibly portrays the 21st century power politics between Moscow and Washington in the Arctic region.

The end of the Soviet Union seemingly fostered an era of regional order in the Arctic, with peaceful coexistence and functional cooperation being at the forefront of multilateral agenda. The foundation of the Arctic Council (1996) served as a means for the eight Arctic nations to symbolically adopt non-binding political resolutions and recommendations on issues of environmental protection and sustainable development, with geopolitical matters and military security excluded from the forum’s agenda. Beyond politically futile resolutions, three legally binding agreements have been signed in the past decade under the auspices of the Arctic Council, elevating the credibility of this intergovernmental forum. However, this

has had little effect on the power dynamics of the Arctic; a region that is effectively reshaping the world’s geo-economics and geopolitics.

Under the eye of Putin’s Russia, securitization, militarization, energy exploitation, and illegal maritime dominance of the Arctic region have been prioritized by the Kremlin’s neo-imperialist ideologues. In turn, as stated by Dr. Rob Huebert, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, “Any reaction by the U.S to catch up in the Arctic comes about 10 years too late.”

The United States urgently requires military presence and maritime mobility to be able to operate and secure its national, as well as international, maritime interests in the deep North. In the words of Andrew Holland, Senior Fellow at the American Security Project, “The Arctic is the only theater of operations where the U.S Navy is outclassed by a peer competitor.”

The Arctic

The exceptional rate of global warming has effectively opened up the wonders of the high Arctic, integrating the once excluded areas of impenetrable ice into the current state of global affairs. This

newly available geopolitical frontier has progressively been liberating vast natural resource bases and lucrative maritime routes. The Arctic contains an estimated 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13 percent of its undiscovered oil reserves, with a combined worth of about $35 trillion. It is not a coincidence that the 2013 U.S National Strategy for the Arctic Region noted that “the melting of Arctic ice has the potential to transform global climate and ecosystems as well as global shipping, energy markets, and other commercial interests.”

Indeed, the invaluable Europe to East Asia trading route through the Suez Canal is currently 11,296 nautical miles long, but only 6,951 nautical miles through the Northern Sea Route – a difference that cuts mileage in half and transit by 10 to 15 days. Predictions indicate that the Northern Sea Route will open for an extended period of time around 2025, whilst the reliable navigability of the Northwest Passage, along the United States’ and Canada’s coastal line, will exist after 2030.

Truthfully, the lack of infrastructure in the region does complicate

Fall 2019

the extraction and movement of resources. Harsh weather conditions in the winter months, lack of communications infrastructure and inconsistent satellite coverage due to atmospheric phenomena create barriers to entry. However, whilst the Russian government is expanding its fleet of nuclear icebreakers and investing heavily in the region, the United States is pursuing a reactionary Arctic policy.

Russian Dominance

Since Vladimir Putin’s famous Munich Speech, Russia has adopted a number of policies and strategies that have amended its maritime and military doctrines to include the Arctic region, emphasizing the need to protect Russia’s geo-economic interests in the North and to project its military influence beyond its Arctic borders.

In 2007, Russia symbolically planted its titanium flag deep into the North Pole seabed in a manner that was globally interpreted as a colonial land-grab. It is not a coincidence that in 2015 the former Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Dimitry Rogozin, warned that the Arctic “is our territory, it is our shelf, and we’ll provide its security.

20

And we will make money there … they will put us on a sanctions list – but tanks do not need visas.”

With immediate effect the same year, the Navy’s Northern Fleet was put into full combat readiness in an unannounced exercise that involved more than 40,000 servicemen, 15 submarines, and 41 warships. This included moving the S-400 Triumph, one of the most advanced air defense weapon systems, to the Kola Peninsula in the far northwest of Russia, near the NATO-allied Scandinavian Peninsula. As Moscow seeks to augment its military presence in the Arctic Circle, the Russian Defense Ministry recently deployed its new Tor-M2DT missile system in several of the new and upgraded Arctic bases, including the ones in Franz Josef Land, Severnaya Zemlya, the New Siberian Islands and Wrangle Island. In a provocative manner, the new Arctic missile system has also been stationed in the Pechenga valley, 10 km away from the RussianNorwegian border.

Combined with militaristic policies, Moscow considers the Northern Sea Route (NSR), running along the Russian Arctic coast, as a waterway within Russia’s

exclusive economic zone (EEZ), with segments of it identified as part of the country’s territorial waters. In accordance with Article 234 of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law and Sea (UNCLOS), all coastal states have the right to adopt and enforce nondiscriminatory laws and regulations concerning maritime pollution, and subsequently vessel navigation in ice-covered areas. Given such classification, the Kremlin has the theoretical ability to manipulate one of the most revolutionary maritime trading routes of the 21st century. Already, Russia’s new rules concerning foreign military vessels require military ships to give 45 days’ notice and obtain ‘permission’ to use the passage; inconsistent with important law of the sea principles related to navigation rights and freedoms. Specifically, UNCLOS gives all military vessels the right of innocent passage through territorial waters as long as their passage is “continuous and expeditious” and is not “prejudicial to the peace, good order or security” of the coastal State. Combined with that, Article 236 reads that “the provisions of this Convention regarding protection and preservation of the

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21 marine environment do not apply to any warship, naval auxiliary, other vessels … owned or operated by a State and used, for the time being, only on government noncommercial service.” Additionally, foreign commercial vessels do not require coastal State permission to navigate waters in either the high sea or the EEZ, embedded in the UNCLOS Articles 58 and 87. To enforce Article 234, there must exist “severe climate conditions” and the presence of ice for most yearround, which questionably pertains to the melting Northern Sea Route.

In turn, the Kremlin aggressively lobbies for the Northern Sea Route to be classified as “historical”, since “historic” waters have the same legal character as “internal waters”.

Coastal States have sovereignty over internal waters and are permitted to require foreign vessels, including warships, to request permission to enter. Under such circumstances the Kremlin is keen to cement monopolistic leverage over the transportation of goods and international movement through the Northern Sea Route.

Analysis

As an Arctic nation, the United States needs to deter the ongoing colonialist intentions of the Russian Federation in the region. Geographically, the Arctic compromises the northern approaches of the United States and represents a potential vector both for attacks on the homeland and for U.S power projection. In the nearest future, the Bering Strait, found between the United States’ Alaska and the Russian Chukchi Peninsula, will emerge as a “key global maritime choke point”.

Only 47 nautical miles apart at its narrowest point, the Bering Strait intrinsically possesses immense geostrategic importance to Moscow, whilst seemingly been undervalued

by Washington. In September 2018, the Kremlin organized military drills in the Bering Sea, part of Moscow’s “biggest military maneuvers since the fall of the Soviet Union”. The Vostok-2018 military exercise involved 300,000 troops, over 1,000 military aircraft, two naval fleets and 36,000 pieces of equipment. Near the Bering Strait, Russia has situated early warning radar systems on both the mainland and the Wrangle Island, designed to gather intelligence and detect U.S military activity in the region – part of a radar network that is estimated to establish a detection field ranging 900 to 1,200 miles beyond the country’s Arctic borders.

The United States does conduct the Northern Edge military exercise in the Gulf of Alaska every two years, however, as part of the Indo-Pacific Command, this exercise focuses on the operational readiness of the U.S navy in the Indo-Pacific, as opposed to the Arctic, region.

Currently, the U.S naval forces do not even have an operational base in Alaska. In the words of Senior Chief Petty Officer Brandon Raile the from Alaskan Command Public Affairs, “We formerly had two installations here in Alaska: Adak and Kodiak. Obviously, we gave Kodiak to the Coast Guard. Adak was turned back over to Aleut Corporation. So right now, we have no basing options here.” Thus, Washington has to urgently allocate resources towards strategic naval ports in Alaska, whilst upgrading the aging North Warning System

and investing into the construction of heavy ice-breakers, as the Coast Guard possess just a single operational one compared to the Russian fleet of 40.

Led by the United States, NATO should also enhance training in the Arctic conditions, whilst investing more in military capabilities that are able to effectively operate in such a harsh domain.

Trident Juncture 2018, revealed “logistical and coordination issues” in operations on the Northern Flank of the Alliance. Given this, “Russia’s perception of its own strength and superiority in the Arctic could embolden it and make it more assertive, heightening the risk of miscalculation and the potential for policy errors, whether in the soft security or military realms.” The Kremlin’s traditional “besieged fortress” mentality is not applicable to the Arctic region where Russia has been establishing geopolitical and military superiority over the past decade. Thus, “maintaining freedoms of navigation” are critical to ensure that the Arctic remains a “free and open domain” and that U.S forces retain their global mobility in this evolving region.

The United States needs to internationalize the Northern Sea Route, whilst matching Russian military capabilities in the Bering Strait to ensure that, at no point in the future, can the Kremlin manipulate maritime transportation in this global bottleneck through an illegal blockade. Only a militarily proactive and diplomatically assertive Arctic policy can contain Russia’s self-perceived notion of exceptionalism in the region.

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Consequences of the Evolving Social Contract of Moscow and Its Youth

by Michelle Ramiz

Photo by Maryna Markowicz

Russia has had a series of political issues within the last few decades, although popular uprisings have been relatively rare until this past summer bleeding into fall. On August 10th, 2019, Moscow and many other major cities in the countries saw the largest protests that they have had in about six years, and they have had major ramifications for the legitimacy of the “United Russia” party in the eyes of many youngerRussians.Thepoliticalgenerational divide and differences in expectations and experiences between many Russians and their parents/grandparents is in part to blame for the explosive nature of these protests, as is the manner in which the police responded to the initial protests, creating a feedback loop which only caused further escalation. The protests

initially stemmed from the vetting process preceding the September 8th elections for Mosgorduma, otherwise known as Moscow City Council. The protests were brought on by the restriction of multiple candidates running as independent from a party. Protests started in June in the capital and then spread from Moscow to St. Petersburg, and by August were in over 40 cities across the country. All 45 seats in the City Council were up for re-election, and many candidates from the ruling “United Russia” party decided to run as independents to sidestep the unpopularity of the party among the electorate, as did many opposition candidates. To register as a candidate, one has to collect signatures from 3% of constituency voters in their given district, which is about 5,000 names.

The official reasoning of the Moscow City Council Voting Committee as to their rejection of multiple independent opposition candidates was that many had signatures that were outside of the realm of what is allowed. Typically, a 10% error rate is allowed; that error rate can be due to the signatures being accompanied by falsified personal data or that of people already deceased. The process of checking the signatures is usually conducted using the voter database and that of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The fact that multiple candidates from the Communist Party (whose presence is steady, although very small) were allowed to run while prominent opposition members were not, spurred on the initial protests. It was seen as a manifestation of the authoritarian

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23 tendencies of the “United Russia” party, which has been the ruling party in central government for many years that they did not allow opposition members to rise up to a rank of a city councillor in the capital.

The Russian state as it is currently is rather new, seeing as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 - 28 years ago; that being said,alotof thesupportthat“UnitedRussia” does garner is from the generation that remembers the immediate ruin of the postSoviet period and credits the party, namely Vladimir Putin, with bringing the country out of complete chaos and preventing a colonial-esque economic takeover by “the West.” The combination of national pride and collective memory of early 1990s hunger, poverty, and rampant mobs is what “United Russia” has used to garner support. The younger generation simply doesn’t have the nostalgic idealization of the Soviet past, nor knowledge of how bad things were ever so recently. As such, they refuse to justify the techniques that “United Russia” uses to stay in power, although the choices that they have with the opposition, which is largely disorganized and weak, aren’t ideal either. However, instead of automatically choosing the longer-staying between two evils, people want to have the ability to actually choose, and that is what the protests which started over the Moscow City Council came to represent.

In Russia, protests have to be sanctioned to be properly organized, and otherwise resemble walk-outs in major

Photo by Rebecca Giovannetti

streets in the given city. This summer, those sanctioned by local government were typically more massive, such as the August 10th one. Estimates vary on the number of people who participated in the August 10th movement; the organizers say 50 000, while police numbers are more in the range of 20 000. The reasons that the August 10th protests in Moscow reached such high numbers can be attributed to three main factors: 1. the fact that they were sanctioned by the city, 2. the idea of safety in numbers, and 3. the ideology behind the protests themselves evolving. The largest protest of all in Moscow on August 10th was accompanied by a concert which, although not sanctioned, was not disturbed by police forces and, as such, encouraged more people to attend. Rappers like Oxxxymiron openly encouraged their fans to attend the rally. Performances by popular political hip-hop/rap artists such as Face and IC3PEAK are reminiscent of the protest rock of the 1980s, such as Kino and Nautilus Pompilius, and ramp up the atmosphere of an already tense setting of a rally. The sheer amount of people attending, predominantly younger people, helped contribute to the sensation of individual safety in an environment in which there are so many other people.

The early protests that started in July of 2019 were in fact about the aforementioned Moscow City Council, but as time went on the ideology behind them quickly evolved. The protests became about

the state of Russian opposition in general.

Given the ideological divide which can be attributed to the differing social and moral contract between the generations and the government, the protests came to mean more as the official reaction against them escalated. The BBC quotes publicist Kirill Rogov as saying, “Now in the center [of the protests] is not even the Moscow City Council election, but the extreme regime which has been established in Moscow, the police brutality which has been used to suppress the protests.” Initially, those interested in the protests were relatively few but the repressive actions of the security apparatus drew people who were complacent before but now felt a strain on the social contract. As they proceeded to join the protests, the actions by the security apparatus escalated, thus creating a loop of more people going onto the street and thus eliciting a greater police presence and response.

The ramifications of these protests have been rather significant, given the recent memory of an attempted color revolution with the Bolotnaya Square protests in 2011 that continued until 2013. The arrests became both an impetus to protest further and a symbol of one of the things that the youth were protesting against. There were more than 1300 arrests before August 10th, and a court case resulted in 5 people being sentenced with criminal charges and 6 people facing misdemeanor charges, and one blogger named Yegor Zhukov. “Mass

Fall 2019 unrest” charges have been dropped but he is facing new charges of “using the internet to all for extremist activity.” The charges are based on a vlog published in 2017 in which Zhukov calls for “any type of protest possible”, which is being used to justify a charge which alleges that Zhukov called for extremist activities. Connected to the arrests are recordings of escalating police brutality against the protesters, filmed by bystanders and the protesters themselves.

These videos demonstrate the nervousness of the organized forces, which are an arm of the central government, in regards to the outcome of these protests. There are reports of protesters being beaten by the police, such as assemblyman Alexandra Parushina whose head was hit during an unsanctioned protest on July 27th. Another man named Konstantin Konovaloc claims that his leg was broken by the police although he wasn’t even protesting, but was jogging. His formal complaint was rejected on the grounds that no laws were broken by the law-enforcing bodies.

The September 8th Moscow City Council elections had a 21.77% turnout which is slightly higher than the previous elections in 2015, 21.04%. Opposition leader Alexei Navalni put forward a method called the “smart vote” - a list of candidates he encouraged the electorate to vote for so as to balance out the presence of “United Russia.” 22 out of 45 spots on the City Council ended up being taken up by non-“United Russia” members and overall, the party lost 13 seats in this electoral round.

Navalni’s choices weren’t popular with everyone, including the support that he expressed for members of the Communist party. The founder of the “Apple” party Grigoriy Avlinskiy said, “We of course have a special voter - he does not stand in line, vote according to a list or a command.

We consider it a serious error to call people to vote for communists-stalinists.” Even other famous Russian opposition members such as Mikhail Khodorkovskiy did not

24 support the “intelligent voting” idea. What this shows is that the opposition is fractured and that the options that they are working with in this attempt to unite aren’t ideal.

This can be attributed to multiple factors; including the fact that this opposition (as all Russian parties) is relatively new and that the political sphere within which they are functioning is only about 30 years old, actions by the central government and ruling party to co-opt or suppress some of the promising opposition members, and the fact that many of the most prominent opposition members are businessmen who went into politics and, as such, are simply not well-versed in politics. Regardless, the slightly larger turnout for the Moscow City Council elections this year and the more balanced distribution of parties is already a small victory.

The lack of ability to protest in an organized way is one of the reasons that these protests reached the scale that they did in the first place. The lack of transparency in the signature vetting process does not instill any faith in its accuracy neither from the candidates, nor the people. The place of the “United Russia” party as the majority party of the capital and as the president’s own party has been challenged by this popular uproar and also by the foreign attention that it has received. The Russian opposition is weak and, as demonstrated by the lack of accord when it came to the “smart voting” strategy, disorganized.

Given the oligarchical origins of many of the opposition leaders, the support that they receive in provinces and from the older generation which remembers the “wild nineties” is spotty. The central government has made a few statements, including accusations of foreign involvement meant to play off of sentiments of nationalism of the Russian people. Given the history of color revolutions in the region, as well as the United States’s history of meddling in foreign countries (both substantiated and alleged), these statements rile up the pride

of those who do in fact see the “United Russia” party as the best one and consider the opposition to be Western puppets or playtoys of the youth that simply doesn’t understand the consequences of wanting quick change. The legacy of revolution runs deep and many opposition members, as oligarchs who made most of their money and fame during the most turbulent of recent times, are not seen as apt representatives by the older generation and the younger generation is turning to them because they have no other options. This entire situation shows a lot of compromising and settling due to lack of options, but more importantly it shows that there is unrest. Will there be lasting consequences?

Most likely so, but over a long period of time once the “United Russia” party’s hold on central government weakens because the opposition, at least in its current state, is unable to present a concrete, unified, and popular platform against it. Furthermore, there is a risk that the rampant idealism and eye towards the West of those who went out to protest is accompanied by the same lack of foresight and avarice that these movements often invite. Ignorance of Russian historical context, of the extent of the deep state, and the degree of trust invested in people whose first calling was not politics but business can be a very risky combination. The future of the country depends on how Vladimir Putin and his party navigate the social contract with a new generation and to what extent the opposition can provide what the Muscovite contract lacks. As of today, the future looks bleak for the ideologies that have yet to evolve in contrast to those that have already established themselves with enough of the population to genuinely improve their lives, or at least convince them that they have.

Africa

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Photo by Archit Agarwal

Engine of Growth: The DRC and the World’s Upcoming Cobalt Crisis

by Yoni Tobin

#BlueforSudan: The Role of Social Media in Giving Awareness To - And Understanding the Aftermath of - The 2019 Sudanese Uprising

by Samira Jafar

26

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28 27 Photo by Matt Manarchy

Engine of Growth: The DRC and the World’s Upcoming Cobalt Crisis

by Yoni Tobin

A

mong the world’s most valuable natural resources, cobalt can be found in numerous products, ranging from cell phones, computers, and jewelry to medical technology such as X-ray machines and prosthetic devices.

As a result, the implications of the recent closure of one of the world’s largest cobalt mines are likely to be significant. In August, Glencore, a Swiss multinational corporation, announced that the Mutanda mine in the southeast region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) would close due to rising costs.

The closure represents a remarkable setback for the cobalt industry, as the Mutanda mine was responsible for producing over 27,000 tons of cobalt in 2018, over 20 percent of global cobalt production. Worse still, Glencore’s decision to close its mine because of a lack of economic viability may presage a broader trend of declining cobalt output in the coming years. Though cobalt production has been steadily on the rise in recent years, the obstacles Glencore faced in operating the Mutanda mine are hardly unique, and will plague future attempts by other multinational corporations to enter into the cobalt industry.

Cobalt extraction in the DRC, where almost 70% of the world’s cobalt is produced, is complicated by a number of factors prevalent in the DRC mining industry. These barriers include local unrest, child labor, human rights violations,

and environmental degradation, all of which make finding ethically sourced cobalt for extraction costly and difficult. The Mutanda mine, though widely regarded as among the safer mines in the country, partially collapsed in June, killing 41 people, and in February, a truck delivering sulfuric acid to the mine overturned, resulting in 18 deaths.

At the same time that conditions for extracting cobalt become ever more difficult, experts predict that global demand for the mineral will skyrocket over the next decade. Aside from its well-known use in phone batteries, cobalt is also used to manufacture lithium-ion batteries, a key component in the production of electric vehicles (EVs).

Many automakers are increasingly looking to move towards greener models, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the number of EVs will rise from approximately 4 million in 2019 to 125 million by 2030. Several 2020 presidential candidates have placed considerable emphasis on EVs in their campaigns. These include Elizabeth Warren, whose climate plan aims for all vehicles to be zeroemissions vehicles by 2030; Kamala Harris, who has advocated the same goal by 2035; and Bernie Sanders, who has proposed an ambitious $85 billion plan to build a nationwide network of EV charging stations by 2030. Bloomberg forecasts that cobalt demand could be as much as 47 times higher in 2030 than it was in 2017, meaning supply is likely to outpace demand by nearly a 2:1 ratio within a decade. Due to the

increasing demand, cobalt prices are expected to rise dramatically, and EV manufacturers will face an uphill battle to make production economically feasible. As a result, the future of cobalt will be dictated not in corporate boardrooms, but in the lush valleys of the DRC.

Though cobalt will be the engine behind the green revolution, the impact its increasing value would actually have on the DRC is hard to predict. Some observers contend that the DRC is on the verge of extensive growth, owing to its near monopoly on one of the world’s most coveted resources. One seniorlevel analyst at asset management firm AllianceBernstein described the DRC as the “Saudi Arabia of the electric vehicle age.” Historically, however, the mineral-rich country has not always benefited from its abundance of natural resources.

The Second Congo War, waged between 1998 and 2003, was largely fought over control of DRC’s minerals. The bloody war between government forces and anti-government rebels aligned with Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda resulted in over 5 million deaths, making it the deadliest conflict since World War II. The fallout from the war continues through present day, and has been exacerbated by the issue of natural resources. Many of the DRC’s “conflict minerals” have been looted of various mines by rebel groups in the years since the end of the war, and residual violence continues in the form of rebel insurgencies and ethnic clashes in the country’s northeast Kivu

Fall 2019 and Ituri regions. In many cases, the lucrative minerals serve as the source of funds for conflicts as well as their primary cause, perpetuating a dangerous cycle.

Despite the steep entry barriers and costs, the lucrativeness of DRC’s cobalt in the coming decade is certain to induce some multinational corporations, whether Glencore or a competitor, into cobalt extraction. Unfortunately, the trickle-down effects from the mining industry will do little to benefit the people of the DRC, 80 percent of whom live in extreme poverty.

The average Congolese household is unlikely to see any of the nearly $2 billion a year the DRC nets in cobalt exports, as the country has been plagued by chronic inequality and rampant cronyism, all of which were defining characteristics of the country under strongman Joseph Kabila. Kabila’s widely unpopular reign from 2001 to January 2019 saw not only widespread corruption but also myriad human rights abuses, though his democraticallyelected successor, Felix Tshishekedi has promised to work towards building a freer and fairer DRC. Tshishekedi told the Council on Foreign Relations last April that “the message I’m trying to send is very clear: I do not wish to see any more corruption in our country.” Though his rhetoric has been promising, Tshishekedi has a difficult task ahead of him if he truly wishes to untangle the web of clientelism in DRC society.

Tshisekedi will also have to navigate the DRC’s complex relationship with the rest of the world, particularly as sub-Saharan Africa continues to emerge as a primary theater for great power competition. Emerging global powers such as China have long

28 viewed the DRC as a key strategic ally. China has attempted to woo the DRC with investments since the 1970s, and in September 2007, China made a forceful push to get the DRC in its corner. Sicomines, a conglomerate of Chinese stateowned companies, signed a deal with the Kabila government to grant China considerable access to mining options and mineral deposits in exchange for over $9 billion USD in infrastructure projects. The project enabled China to gain access to, by some estimates, hundreds of thousands of tons of cobalt and millions of tons of copper. In addition, the Chinese military provided military training and weapons to the Congolese army under the Kabila regime.

The symbiotic relationship has also benefited China politically, as the DRC was one of 37 countries that wrote a letter to the United Nations expressing support for China’s treatment of Uighur Muslims in the Chinese region of Xinjiang, which has been widely condemned by Western countries.

China is not alone in its courtship of the tropical country.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited the country in March 2017 and met with the DRC’s Foreign Minister, Leonard Okitnudu, about expanding unspecified “economic cooperation.” The DRC also has enjoyed a fairly cozy relationship with India, another rising global power. India and the DRC have agreed to five infrastructure projects in the DRC since 2010, valued at over $300 million in total. The United States has been reluctant to engage in the sorts of investment projects in Africa that China and other global players have, instead currying favor with African nations through bilateral aid. The Trump

Administration’s budget request for 2020 includes $201 million in aid to the DRC. However, the nostrings-attached aid that the U.S. provides to countries such as the DRC means it forgoes concessions like the Sicomines deal, giving its strategic competitor China a major leg up in the cobalt race. China has already begun capitalizing off their surging cobalt imports. Chinese company Contemporary Amperex Technology began mass-producing nickel batteries last April, aided in large part by the DRC’s prolific exportation of cobalt to China, the recipient of around half of the DRC’s total cobalt exports.

For all the obstacles ahead, the DRC and multinational corporations have a vested interest in ensuring that cobalt production does not drop off too significantly.

The future of cobalt extraction will depend in large part on the conditions on the ground in the DRC, which will be dictated by how effectively Tsheshekedi can balance two aims: continuing cobalt production, and ensuring his country does not regress into the corruption and fighting it saw too often under his predecessor. Other complicating factors, such as human rights abuses and environmental degradation, will also play a role in DRC’s ability to induce multinational investment in cobalt extraction. Additionally, Tsheshekedi will need to walk a tightrope to placate both China and its Western counterparts in the coming decade as great power competition ramps up across the continent. As the importance of cobalt continues to rise, much hinges on how the DRC responds to the impending global cobalt crisis.

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#BlueforSudan: The Role of Social Media in Giving Awareness To - And Underestimating the Aftermath of - The 2019 Sudanese Uprising

by Samira Jafar

I

n April of 2019, Sudan experienced a violent transition: their President of thirty years, Omar Al-Bashir, was overthrown after rampid protests called for his resignation across the country.

In his place, the Transitional Military Council (TMC) took control of the state and imposed martial law, but they did not bring the peace and prosperity the Sudanese civilians were hoping for.

Instead, they committed crimes of assault, killing, and rape, and tried to keep the Sudanese from speaking out about these acts in response to demands for a civilian government. Across the world, #BlueforSudan took social media by storm, turning Sudan’s civilian uprisings against the oppressive TMC into an international call for help. Through social media, the lives of civilian martyrs were honored, the grievances of the Sudanese civilians were heard, and most importantly, the reign of the TMC was put to a halt. Despite the attention social media brought to the conflict, the end of its time in the headlines brought an end to the eyes on Sudan at a time when there are still many challenges ahead.

The transitional government must find a way to address rampant unemployment, a lack of civilian representation, and a call for democracy in order to truly tackle the main issues that led to the

uprisings.

“The crisis in Sudan began in December 2018 under the rule of former President Omar Al-Bashir.”

Throughout 2018 and the years prior, Sudan was going through an intense economic crisis which President Bashir responded to with economic austerity measures.

However, at this point in time, Sudan was no stranger to economic crises. The secession of South Sudan in 2011 brought a loss in oil revenue, double-digit consumer price inflation, and intense food price hikes, resulting in similar protests to those seen this year in 2011 and 2012.

Still fragile from the rocky foundation of their past, the Sudanese civilians were devastated

by President Bashir’s cuts to grain and fuel subsidies. Demonstrations occurred in the capital city of Khartoum, morphing from a state of general economic grievance into

calls for President Bashir’s removal from office. Protests had severely intensified in nature by April 2019, when President Bashir announced that he and his government would be leaving their positions. From that point on, the Transitional Military Council (TMC) would be in charge of leading the state during the transitional period to restore “order and stability.” Yet the grievances of the Sudanese only grew worse.

The seven-member TMC led by Lieutenant-General Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman Burhan was not a singular force to begin with, often swayed by various Islamist groups and paramilitary forces.

Furthermore, in their campaign to ensure ‘order’ in Sudan, the Sudanese reported looting, rapes, and break-ins at the hands of the militia, as well as a general shut-down for social media in order to silence civilians.

Protests grew to a head on June 3, 2019, when the TMC responded with violence against civilians. In an effort to spread awareness of the TMC’s treatment of civilians, activists who are commonly a part of the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) - a collaboration of students, doctors, lawyers, and other mostly young professionals - tried to raise awareness of what was going on in any way they knew how to.

Fall 2019

Yet the SPA was not the only force that was attempting to raise awareness over the crisis. Hundreds of activists, organizations, and citizens from around the globe took to social media to express their discontent over the treatment of the Sudanese at the hands of the TMC. The hashtag #BlueforSudan took social media by storm across various platforms such as Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook, with people changing their profile pictures to the same blue shade to express solidarity for Mohamed Mattar, a 26 year old Sudanese engineer who was killed by the TMC during a protest; blue was his favorite color.

Another hashtag that was highly utilized was #PrayforSudan, which was a more general call for the international public to pay close attention to the crimes of the TMC. In addition to these hashtags, social media was used to spread awareness through the use of other symbols and platforms. ‘Kandaka,’ a Nubian queen, became a symbol for the rebels; her representation of freedom was expressed through a picture of a Sudanese woman, Hind Makki, wearing a traditional thobe and standing on a car during a protest, pointing towards the sky.

‘Kandaka’ became a symbol not only for the determination of the rebels during the protests, but also

30 for the intense and organized role women played in mobilizing the Sudanese civilians against the TMC and their involvement throughout the SPA. Another more active role social media played in turning eyes towards the protests was the plethora of GoFundMe donation pages found online for victims of the TMC or their family members. This allowed people from across different platforms to be able to donate to individuals or organizations, all with the common goal of helping Sudanese civilians deal with such a difficult crisis and gather resources.

The prominence of social media in raising awareness on the crisis is important not only for its impact on the revolution itself, but also in its wider historical and cultural context. Social media’s coverage of the situation came at a time when the TMC cut off civilians’ access to the internet, thus allowing an online presence to serve as a voice for those who were unable to speak to the injustices being carried out. The grievances of the protesters and their turn to social media is simultaneously not unlike that of the Arab Spring in 2011. In Nahed Eltawany and Julie B. Wiest’s article on the Arab Spring for the International Journal of Communication, they noted that “internet-based communication

technologies provide an important additional resource for social movements implemented by “resource poor” actors, offering a means for mass communication that may have previously been restricted by financial, temporal, or spatial constraints.” Furthermore, both Sudan and Egypt managed to bring about the ‘opening’ of closed regimes by alerting the public as to the nature of the crimes committed by the government and military, as well as express their economic and social grievances in an effort to give context to the nature of the protests. This allowed their struggles to become not just the subject of internal affairs, but also to draw concern from international states, organizations, and individuals. Much like the story behind Mohammed Mattar’s death in Sudan, the death of Mohammed Bouazizi generated international concern and as a result, “Bouazizi’s self immolation was one of several stories told and retold on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube in ways that inspired dissidents to organize protests, criticize their governments, and spread ideas about democracy.”

As a result of these parallels, truths about the effectiveness of social media are drawn from both the Arab Spring and the Sudanese crisis.

Photo by Mazin Sayed

The International Relations Review

31

Photo by Natalie Carroll

Despite social media’s ability to bring attention to the crisis, Sudan’s case echoes that of the Arab Spring in another fashion: revolution does not mean the struggle is over.

Coupled with this truth, the cyclical nature of social media means that not as many eyes around the world will be watching Sudan tackle the struggles of organizing a transitional government, a process which was set to begin in September 2019.

The economic and social grievances of the Sudanese need to be dealt with, as well as new concerns borne out of the TMC’s removal from power. The first of these concerns is unemployment and the restoration of fuel and food subsidies. Despite President Omar Al-Bashir’s removal from office in April, the limit on fuel and food subsidies was not remedied under the TMC and are key to the survival of many Sudanese civilians.

With lower agricultural production than Sudan has enjoyed in the past, many regions are heavily reliant on wheat and grain subsidies. In 1982, subsidies on wheat and petroleum were removed, but reinstated soon after due to rampant protests similar to those that occurred this year,

displaying how reliant the population is on these subsidies. Additionally, rampant unemployment has only worsened the economic state of Sudan. The unemployment rate is currently at 12.80 percent, and youth unemployment is at 26.71 percent. The new government must be prepared not only to address these issues, but also to provide efficient solutions that will have a positive, long-term impact, creating new jobs and providing the youth with ample employment opportunities.

The concerns this new government must tackle are not just economic in nature, but political and social as well. The Sudanese civilians wish for an organized transitional government where sovereign council members and cabinet members are barred from running for election.

On September 9, 2019, the new cabinet was sworn in, making it the first since President Bashir was ousted earlier this year. They are set to rule for a transitional period of 39 months, until a permanent government is organized. Yet many Sudanese civilians are opposed to members of President Bashir’s government partaking in this new

one, citing concerns over continuing corruption and disregard for the wellbeing of the population.

Instead, many have called for participants in the protests to be able to have their say in the governing process. This desire is reflected by some groups more than others. The Sudanese Women’s Union (SWU), for example, expressed anger at the fact that though many participants in the revolution were female - with the international symbol of the protests being a Sudanese woman, Hind Makki, wearing white the new government is almost completely all-male. The SWU has called for the new cabinet to take into consideration the female effort in changing Sudanese history and calling for political change.

As a result of these concerns that have yet to be addressed, the new government still has a lot on their plate if they wish to end the cycle of protest and conflict that Sudan has suffered through and usher in a new age where civilians get their rightful representation.

Fall 2019

32 As a whole, this revolution was unique in its international prominence and the role social media played in ensuring that both Omar Al-Bashir’s and the TMC’s crimes were heard around the world and that their removal from power would most definitely occur, thus demonstrating the important part social media has to play in giving a voice to countries that lack representation. As time will only tell, this new phenomenon has the potential to change the concept of revolution as we know it to exist.

However, the cyclical nature of social media means that the world’s eyes have already turned away from this conflict and onto another event, thus leaving the state vulnerable in this monumental period in their history. Future issues were not resolved with the international focus on the crisis, nor will they be until the government adequately represents the wants and needs of its people and addresses the economic, social, and political issues that created a revolution to begin with.

In the coming years, whether or not Sudan was able to recover from these tumultuous events will be based on the transitional government’s ability to live up to its promises.

Photo by Ivan-Alexios Badanjak

Asia

33

Photo by Laura Stanton

Education Inequality in Asia: India and Singapore

by Akash Chopra

Xi, China’s Space Dream, and the Strategic Support Force

by Noah Riley

Climate Change and the Spread of Dengue in Nepal

by Janu Pangeni

34

The International Relations Review

35

Education Inequality in Asia: India and Singapore

by Akash Chopra

L

abor economics, a prominent branch of the field, considers expenditures on education as well.

However, its impact on income inequality is not fully understood. Despite this lack of adequate research, governments in Asia, particularly in India and Singapore, are publicly increasing expenditures on schooling while there is a widening gap in income inequality. Observing the conditions under which these programs are executed, of increased expenditure, will allow us to understand the dynamic under which such schooling initiatives take place.

India is a developing nation that has a bad reputation when it comes to access to education. However, what critics often fail to take into account is India’s vast size. Compared to other countries in Asia, such as Singapore, for example, India is roughly 4,560 times the size.

We must therefore consider the case of India with extreme prejudice, while taking into account the vast area it occupies and the

Photo by Madeline Van Heusden

characteristics that come along with it.

While observing the literacy rate in India, it is evident that there is an increase from 64.8% in 2001 to 74.04% in 2011. This is no easy feat, especially when analyzing the fact that the majority of its growth can be attributed to an increase in female literacy rates.

Therefore, we must not identify how India can improve on its access to education, but rather the strategies that it used in order to rapidly increase its literacy rate through the ten years reported by the Census. This is where we can bring the concept of India’s two stage filtration system, which helps explain the relationship between the gap in education inequality and the gap in income inequality. Children in India attend a certain school based on their socio-economic class, affects job prospects, social mobility, and earning potential.

The government of India has recognized this problem, referring to it as “Inequality

in Education Opportunity.” Given the spatial extent of India, including the various states encompassed within it, the most complete data set that we can compare between is 1983 and 2004.

Primary education data reveals that the fraction of the population enrolled in primary education almost doubled in all states. Similarly, while in 1983 less than 20% of the population in each state was enrolled in secondary education, these levels grew exponentially through 2014.

This rapid growth must be analyzed in order to understand what policy implications expanded in access to education and how the government can prevent the two stage filtration system from widening a gap in education and income.

A key step that is taken by the government of India is the recognition of the fact that any program that needs to be implemented must be planned on a country level but implemented on a state level. This way, any of the negative externalities that are associated with implementation of programs on a country-wide level. One of the programs that is prevalent is the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan Program (SSA). The term directly translates from Hindi to mean the “Education for All Movement.”

The program began operations in early-2000 and has since involved the local governments of all major states in India. The program divides expenses based upon which states require the funds - which is speculated to occur annually. The goal of the project is to ensure that each child in India receives

Fall 2019

36 Photo by Madeline Van Heusden

elementary education, and though the expected completion was meant to be in the year 2010, this has been pushed back.

Regardless of the failure to meet the initial deadline, the importance is the results where we see that primary education has doubled in almost all states. The fact that the doubling of primary education has occurred in all states as opposed to states such as Maharashtra, where Mumbai is, and Delhi, where New Delhi is, allows us to infer that the program has been doing a more than adequate task of ensuring equal distribution of funds without bias.

Relating this back to economics, interpreting the actions of the Indian government, we see that through the lens of the Human Capital Theory, future earnings of individuals will be impacted by an increase in education and its access. Therefore, India has, though slowly, prevented its funding from being diverted to regions where the demand is higher (implying Delhi and Mumbai).

Rather through the schemes used by the government, they have supplied education in rural states, contrary to

demand-supply rules in order to reap the positive externalities as well as work toward their goal of universal primary education.

Singapore, the “Lion City,” has somewhat of a different story to India.

In 2015, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development named Singapore’s education system as the best in the world. This is no surprise, the small

Singapore has a growing problem of income inequality. This may be attributed to the fact that foreigners and expats make up the proportion of the highest 10% of earning individuals.

Despite this, the government seems to have enacted education policy in order to address the discrepancy within the wages. From 2007 to 2017 the highest income earners saw wages increase by about SGD 5,000 whereas the lowest income earners saw their wages increase about SGD 250 during the same period of time. UNESCO provides detailed information on government expenditures in the educational sector.

For Singapore, we see that between 20092010 the expenditure as a percent of island nation celebrates its 52nd Birthday government spending hovered between this year, accompanied by high standards 17% and 18%. However, between 2011 of living and a GDP per capita that makes and 2013 this rate hovered above 20%. it somewhat of an anomaly amongst the Though percentage wise, this change is region it is based. It is therefore valuable small, counting dollars in a country of to understand how such a young nation only 5.5 million people reflects a drastic became the “Hub of Asia” with such a change in expenditure. robust education system in such a short A lot of this expenditure can period of time. be accounted for in the subsidies that

“Primary education has doubled in almost all states.”

The International Relations Review

37 a child in Singapore gets when being educated. The Finance Minister of Singapore Heng Swee Keat stated that “the government subsidizes over 90 per cent of the total cost of educating our children.” Though Singapore does not have the same spatial and political issues as India due to the vast size of the country, it is important to see where this money is being spent. If the model of spending equally across the board is being used or if the models used are identical, to which Singapore has increased expenditure to marginally provide more support for communities that are unable to support education.

Looking into the new initiatives that the government has such as UPLIFT Singapore, we see that the Ministry of Education in Singapore is using a grassroots level approach in order to distribute funds to underprivileged children in

Photo by Zayda Romero

primary schools. The initiative has a specific protocol which utilizes schools and teachers as resources in order to provide a greater amount of subsidies and support for underprivileged children that are underperforming in schools. In comparison to India, Singapore does not have the issue of accessibility to education, rather they are more concerned with ensuring that the opportunity received by all students is equal.

In retrospect, then, India and Singapore are both operating within systems that will increase access to education for those that are less privileged, in very different national circumstances.

Though this will provide hope for critics that advocate for equality in education, the question regarding income inequality still remains a mystery. Both countries have a notable gap that is getting worse in terms of income inequality and both have increased expenditures in the same period. From an economic sense, an increase in education will increase the productivity and capacity of the individual. This socially, opens up many doors based upon the climate we currently live in - a degree from a well reputed university will fetch a higher paycheck than anything else.

Though some critics believe that increasing expenditure on education particularly focusing on the less privileged

will decrease income inequality, others are not convinced. Many prominent economists have made the argument that an increase in grassroots efforts such as those seen in India and Singapore will only aid in lifting the bottom 20% of earners to a more average salary - but will have little to no effect on inequality between the median income and high income groups.

This claim has validity given that the programs in Singapore and India primarily focus on primary school and often fail to follow the same monetary push throughout secondary and tertiary education. A recent study by the Economic Policy Institute, however, found that the single biggest determinant of success is childhood social class.

These programs definitely address this, however, through the 20 years covered in the study, which include the lifespan of these programs there is little to no change in earnings and the inequality present before still remains the case. all states as opposed to states such as Maharashtra, where Mumbai is, and Delhi, where New Delhi is, allows us to infer that the program has been doing a more than adequate task of ensuring equal distribution of funds without bias.

Relating this back to economics, interpreting the actions of the Indian government, we see that through the lens of the Human Capital Theory, future earnings of individuals will be impacted by an increase in education and its access. Therefore, India has, though slowly, prevented its funding from being diverted to regions where the demand is higher (implying Delhi and Mumbai).

Rather through the schemes used by the government, they have supplied

Fall 2019 education in rural states, contrary to demand-supply rules in order to reap the positive externalities as well as work toward their goal of universal primary education.

Singapore, the “Lion City,” has somewhat of a different story to India.

In 2015, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development named Singapore’s education system as the best in the world.

This is no surprise, the small island nation celebrates its 52nd Birthday this year, accompanied by high standards of living and a GDP per capita that makes it somewhat of an anomaly amongst the region it is based. It is therefore valuable to understand how such a young nation became the “Hub of Asia” with such a robust education system in such a short period of time.

Singapore has a growing problem of income inequality. This may be attributed to the fact that foreigners and expats make up the proportion of the highest 10% of earning individuals.

Despite this, the government seems to have enacted education policy in order to address the discrepancy within the wages. From 2007 to 2017 the highest income earners saw wages increase by about SGD 5,000 whereas the lowest income earners saw their wages increase about SGD 250 during the same period of time. UNESCO provides detailed information on government expenditures in the educational sector.

For Singapore, we see that between 20092010 the expenditure as a percent of government spending hovered between 17% and 18%. However, between 2011 and 2013 this rate hovered above 20%.

Though percentage wise, this change is

38 small, counting dollars in a country of only 5.5 million people reflects a drastic change in expenditure.

A lot of this expenditure can be accounted for in the subsidies that a child in Singapore gets when being educated. The Finance Minister of Singapore Heng Swee Keat stated that “the government subsidizes over 90 per cent of the total cost of educating our children.” Though Singapore does not have the same spatial and political issues as India due to the vast size of the country, it is important to see where this money is being spent. If the model of spending equally across the board is being used or if the models used are identical, to which Singapore has increased expenditure to marginally provide more support for communities that are unable to support education.

Looking into the new initiatives that the government has such as UPLIFT Singapore, we see that the Ministry of Education in Singapore is using a grassroots level approach in order to distribute funds to underprivileged children in primary schools. The initiative has a specific protocol which utilizes schools and teachers as resources in order to provide a greater amount of subsidies and support for underprivileged children that are underperforming in schools. In comparison to India, Singapore does not have the issue of accessibility to education, rather they are more concerned with ensuring that the opportunity received by all students is equal.

In retrospect, then, India and Singapore are both operating within systems that will increase access to education for those that are less privileged, in very different national circumstances.

Though

this will provide hope for critics that advocate for equality in education, the question regarding income inequality still remains a mystery. Both countries have a notable gap that is getting worse in terms of income inequality and both have increased expenditures in the same period. From an economic sense, an increase in education will increase the productivity and capacity of the individual. This socially, opens up many doors based upon the climate we currently live in - a degree from a well reputed university will fetch a higher paycheck than anything else. Though some critics believe that increasing expenditure on education particularly focusing on the less privileged will decrease income inequality, others are not convinced.

Many prominent economists have made the argument that an increase in grassroots efforts such as those seen in India and Singapore will only aid in lifting the bottom 20% of earners to a more average salary - but will have little to no effect on inequality between the median income and high income groups. This claim has validity given that the programs in Singapore and India primarily focus on primary school and often fail to follow the same monetary push throughout secondary and tertiary education. A recent study by the Economic Policy Institute, however, found that the single biggest determinant of success is childhood social class.

These programs definitely address this, however, through the 20 years covered in the study, which include the lifespan of these programs there is little to no change in earnings and the inequality present before still remains the case.

The International Relations Review

39

Xi, China’s Space Dream, and the Strategic Support Force

by Noah Riley

“Exploring the vast universe, developing space programs and becoming an aerospace power have always been the dream we’ve been striving for.” – Xi Jinping, April 24, 2016. China’s first Space Day.

The Chinese dream (pinyin: Zhōngguó Mèng) is a phrase that draws the attention of Chinese citizens and foreign officials alike. After being named General Secretary of the Communist Party of China in 2012, President Xi Jinping used the phrase in a highprofile event at the National Museum of China. Following his remarks, the Chinese dream became closely affiliated with China’s leader, and the expression became commonly used by the General-Secretary, other Party and government officials, and the press to discuss the domestic rise of the Chinese people, and China’s “ascendance as a great, global power.”

“中国梦 The Chinese Dream”

In Xi’s words, the Chinese Dream is “the goal of completing the building of a wealthy, powerful, democratic, civilized, and harmonious socialist modernized nation” by the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China in 2049. The term itself has roots in Chinese literature and intellectual history, but Xi has taken ownership of the Chinese dream in its modern sense; a trailblazer who is leading China into the future.

A portion of this allencompassing dream is China’s space program development, seeking future dominance of a new “strategic frontier.” The Chinese government intentions are abundantly clear when it comes to space: “To build China into a space power in all respects.” This ambition extends, like the dream itself, in an all-inclusive manner; China seeks “to promote strong and sustained economic and social development, to effectively and reliably guarantee national security, to exercise sound and efficient governance, and to carry out mutually beneficial international exchanges and cooperation; […] to provide strong support for the realization of the Chinese Dream of the renewal of the Chinese nation, and make positive contributions to human civilization and progress.”

A short introduction to some of China space milestones since the turn of the century, announcing itself on a stage previously dominated by the United States and Russia. In 2003, China joined the two superpowers as the only nations to send a human space, when the Shenzhou-5 spacecraft completed a successful voyage. China followed this performance with five other manned missions between 2005 and 2016. In January of 2019, China landed its Chang’e 4 lunar lander on the far side of the moon (the geography of landing a rover on the far side of the moon makes this feat especially logistically impressive), where its accompanying rover was able to relay data back to Earth.

Equally impressive was the cotton seed germination conducted onboard the Chang’e 4. Not all of China’s space accomplishments are so celebrated, however. Less endearing to the international community was China’s antisatellite weaponry (ASAT) test in 2007, which destroyed an old satellite in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), an act that flexed its developing counterspace capabilities. If it was not clear enough before, China established that it views space as a military asset, and a “strategic domain” for the future.

To cement China’s space dream as more than just a government project, but rather as a mission that the Chinese people will propel, the country held its first national Space Day on April 24, 2016. Space Day marked the official announcement of China’s 2020 Mars mission, as Xu Dazhe, head of the State Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence (SASTIND) outlined plans to launch an orbiter, lander and rover to earth’s red neighbor. Much like the Space Race during the Cold War, Beijing’s push to dominate the space technology industry by 2045 has ignited a collective patriotic fervor in the hearts and minds of the Chinese people. As strategic competition with the United States continues to build, the spirit of the people will be an invaluable element in driving China’s space program forward.

China has upped its spending on space-related activities to $8 billion – in official expenditures a number

Fall 2019 which is only second to the U.S., according to the Space Foundation, an American non-profit.

The Middle Kingdom’s aspirations in space are quite clearly far-reaching, though the feature garnering the most international attention is China’s military ambition beyond earth garnering the most international attention is China’s military ambition beyond earth.

A common theme running through modern Chinese military literature is the belief that space is the ultimate high ground, “that whoever controls space controls the earth.” The Textbook for the Study of Operations, published by the Academy of Military Science (AMS), the PLA’s premier think tank notes that, “whoever has the advantage of space has the power of the initiative; having ‘space’ support enables victory, lacking ‘space’ ensures defeat.” China’s 2015 defense white paper emphasizes the PLA’s evolving ability to protect “China’s security and threats in new domains.” Chinese military strategists view space as vital to future operations; a newly available domain that is imperative for strategic deterrence, integral for fighting “informationized wars and [countering] U.S. military intervention in the [Pacific region]”, and critical for infrastructure and networks supporting Chinese interests in the Indo-Pacific and increasingly beyond. Hence China’s drive to dominate the new strategic frontier.

No organizational body is more important to China’s future military plans in space than the Strategic Support Force (SSF).

Officially created on December 31, 2015, plans for the SSF and

40 other PLA restructurings were articulated in China’s 2015 defense white paper, a report detailing sweeping structural changes to China’s military. This document stressed China’s “ongoing shift of its military posture from land-based territorial defense to extended power projection”, pointing to the three critical domains of space, cyberspace, and the far seas as chief areas of focus. The establishment of the SSF was a dramatic break from previous PLA organizational structure, consolidating space, cyber, electronic capabilities and psychological operations in order to integrate support functions. Other components include counterspace, strategic and electromagnetic warfare. The creation of the SSF demonstrates the value China places on information as a strategic resource in future operations, and – what limited information is available on the SSF – provides insight into “understanding how the PLA plans to fight and win informationized wars and how it will conduct

information operations.”

The SSF is broken into two divisions: Space Systems Department – charged with “developing and employing most of the PLA’s space capabilities” – and the Network Systems Department.

The Space Systems Department is “responsible for executing the SSF’s space mission”, and is further broken into three major components, per National Defense University: Space Launch, Space Telemetry, Tracking and Control Subsystems (TT&C), and Space command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems.

The Space Systems Department and Network Systems Department overlapping missions include Counterspace and Strategic Intel.

The SSF is largely comprised of previously existing General Staff Department (GSD) and General Armaments Department (GAD) units. It is worth noting that the GAD was a research and development (R&D) focused organization, and

Photo by Raina Kadavil

The International Relations Review

41 its assimilation with operationallyoriented GSD units signifies the PLA’s desire to meet vigorous space operation requirements.

The turn of the century marked a transition in China’s space capabilities development, as China began to modernize its C4ISR capabilities at a torrid pace.

This development is centered on increasing the number of Chinese satellites – from a dozen in 2000 to 181 by 2016 – and advancing the technologies they are equipped with. China intends to have a fully functional, global 24-hour all weather earth remote sensing system and a global satellite navigation system 19 by 2020. To this point, China’s satellite navigation system consists of a 35-satellite constellation, known as the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS).

BeiDou now rivals the U. S’s Global Positioning System (GPS) in terms of accuracy and sophistication, which is an immensely valuable for consumer (cars, maps, etc.), military, and intelligence uses.

Continued contribution to the BeiDou network in terms of satellite launches,

infrastructure, and integration of BDS with other PLA capabilities lies with the SSF. According to a 2017 RAND Corporation report: “The SSF’s C4ISR capabilities enable the PLA to effectively conduct joint operations and successfully prosecute ‘system vs. system’ warfare, which it characterizes as essential to winning modern wars.”

Satellite activities that now fall under the SSF also include refueling, maintenance and repair, space debris removal, and conducting of proximity operations.

While each of these operations seem relatively harmless it is important to understand that this indicates that civilian space capacities can easily be rerouted for military purposes, when necessitated

by PLA operations.

Perhaps the most concerning aspect of China’s space development for the U.S. is China’s counterspace program. China boasts an impressive array of offensive and defensive counterspace capabilities, comprised of space-based platforms and ground and air platforms.

Counterspace tools employable

by China include: kinetic-energy, directed- energy, co-orbital, and electronic and cyber weaponry.

The SSF gives China a more streamlined approach to employing these co-orbital counterspace measures – co-

orbital configuration describes two or more astronomical objects orbiting at the same, or close to the same, distance from their primary (for satellites, the primary would be the earth). Co-orbital capabilities allow for satellite-on-satellite attacks in the form of jamming adversary satellites, or performing an “area denial of space” for the space infrastructure of other countries.

The most eye-catching (so to speak) aspect of China’s counterspace program is its kineticenergy weapons – exemplified by China’s ASAT testing and prowess.

The U.S. military and much of technologically advanced society relies heavily on satellites and other space assets for communication, weather forecasting, intelligence gathering, navigation, combat and more.

China’s continued development of asymmetric capabilities are designed to expose the reliance of the U.S. on these satellites, and take advantage of this vulnerability. Covertly or overtly a U.S. satellite, during conflict or peace-time, being disabled is a scenario with potentially disastrous ramifications that policymakers, the scientific community, and military personnel must consider.

China is a very real space power, and a more imposing space foe. The SSF and its operational capacity is only one small cog in the immensely complicated, and powerful, China space machine.

China’s space development is becoming woven into the DNA of the Chinese dream, a dream that is rapidly closing in on reality.

On June 24, 2013, Xi made a video call at the Beijing Aerospace Control Center to the three Shenzhou-10 astronauts aboard the orbiting space module Tiangong-1.

Photo by Naomi Carolan

Fall 2019 “The space dream is part of the dream to make China stronger,” he said.

Though popular conversation regarding U.S.-China relations center on economics and trade, space is likely to force its way into the conversation sooner than many may think. China’s rapid space progression, coupled with the United States’ relative post-Cold War complacency should be of concern to policymakers, American defense institutions, and private American enterprises. Outside of a military perspective, space presents significant opportunity for scientific inquiry and economic conquest, neither of which are possible to exploit without strong infrastructural capabilities and advanced innovation, both of which China possesses.

A number of points for future consideration: How will space be governed? Who will take leadership and what set of values will be used to retain order in space?

Due to a rapidly changing modern world and lack of direct historical parallels, it will prove difficult to extrapolate from previous shared, global experiences in regards to how exactly to govern space. There are no clear-cut regulations, nor analogous regimes to draw equivalences from.

The best bet for the United States, China, and Russia, and other countries is to begin by establishing norms of behavior. Because space is so new (relative to the world’s timeline) and only a small number of countries can claim proficiency in space technology, it is hard to determine what practices in space are normal and what practices are unusual. By determining norms of behavior, states can lay the groundwork for a future space governance regime.

Current

42 tensions, fundamental differences in governance, and the vast wealth of resources possibly available beyond the earth’s atmosphere will make this challenging. Another source of tension in space-related negotiations will likely stem from the closely intertwined nature of China’s commercial space industry and its military-space activity. In the U.S., there is a clear distinction between government space infrastructure and public enterprise, and an even clearer differentiation between the commercial and military industries.

This is simply a difference in political systems, one that may be difficult for many in the West to understand, and even more difficult to cede too in international negotiations. China’s ability to mobilize any resource – public or private, commercial or military – at any time, will make much of the West cautious in how they pursue future space relations with China.

Additionally, any direct cooperation in space between the U.S. and China in the near future is quite unlikely. In 2011, the U.S. passed the Wolf Amendment (colloquially named after Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA)), barring NASA from any work with the China National Space Administration (CNSA), unless the FBI decides “such efforts don’t pose a national security risk and if Congress has been notified of the plan.” Though the Amendment has held firm for eight years, a potential development emerged in October of 2018, when NASA head Jim Bridenstine and CNSA head Zhang Kejian appeared together one a panel discussion at the 69th International Astronautical Conference in Bremen, Germany, with each head insinuating they would be open to cooperation in the future, respectively. There

is precedent for such bilateral cooperation in times of tension – during the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union jointly conducted the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project and other initiatives designed to facilitate collaboration

To China’s credit, their 2016 white paper on China’s space activities has an entire section devoted to “International Exchanges and Cooperation”, pointing to bilateral space treaties with Russia, the European Space Agency, and Brazil and multilateral agreements with the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Organization and ASEAN (among many others) as examples of international cooperation on the space frontier. The paper also notes deeper space cooperation with countries belonging to the Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS, clearly indicating cooperation in space will strengthen already strong economic ties with these partners.

One country to keep an eye on in the Indo-Pacific region is India.

They too have impressive space ambitions, conducting an ASAT test this year, joining the U.S., Russia, and China as the only countries with such capabilities. India also landed – crash landed, that is – a lunar lander on the moon in September of 2019. Though the lander was ultimately unable to fulfill mission objectives, it was an important accomplishment for the India, as it became only the seventh country to conduct a lunar hard landing operation.

More significantly, however, is its burgeoning strategic rivalry with China, with serious points of contention on both sides; the two countries will likely push each other in a security dilemmalike relationship as they seek to assert their own economic and military influence over the region.

Photo by Raina Kadavil

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Climate Change and the Spread of Dengue in Nepal

by Janu Pangeni

Photo by Lauren Peterson

The dengue epidemic has hit Nepal rapidly and furiously. Having the harshest impact on the capital city of Kathmandu, it has now spread, far beyond the capital city alone. According to the Nepali Times newspaper, there have been over 8,000 reported dengue cases and an estimated 80,000 infections in five months this year, including six deaths. The effects of climate change have made dengue fever spread to the high altitudes caused by rising temperature that has made it a hub for vector-borne diseases. This year an unusual thunderstorm hit the southern part of Nepal with more than two dozen people died and hundreds of affected by destroyed infrastructures.

Similarly, heavy rainfall and landslides killed dozens of people in other parts of

the country recently.

Trends from 1975 to 2005 indicate that the temperature in Nepal has been increasing by approximately 0.6 °C per decade - at least three times as high as the global average, according to a 2019 report of the Ministry of Forest and Environment in Nepal. Additionally, according to the IAAS, temperatures will increase to 1.3-3.8°C by the 2060s and 1.5-5.8°C by 2090s. Being one of the poorest countries in Asia, Nepal’s various frequent climate changes like heavy rainfall, floods, melting glaciers and landslides are creating threats for living, agriculture, ecosystem, and biodiversity.

Nepal struggles with economic growth as an outcome of natural disasters.

For example, even after the major

earthquake of April 2015, the houses and other infrastructures have not yet been rebuilt. Even with government funding, reconstruction of houses is still very expensive for many people.

Geographical barriers like mountains also make it hard to build roads, keeping them disconnected from the major cities and the result being poverty and hardship. These issues also causes further societal problems like illiteracy. According to the Nepali Times newspaper, Nepal’s national poverty rate is 23% but the Himalya areas have a 42% poverty rate.

People who live in rural areas in mountain ranges have been the most affected by climate changes because of its barriers with place. With rising temperatures, there are hundreds of glaciers that are

Fall 2019 melting that also causes hazards like flooding and impacts glaciers are the main sources of rivers and lakes for the country. Its further impact on biodiversity impacts people’s survival needs as well, causing people to migrate to fulfill basic needs. Similarly, low-income families in other rural areas of Nepal have also been struggling to deal with the climate change from a lack of knowledge, poverty, and underdevelopment. Most of the rural areas do not have access to many government services and facilities, so they are unable to reach immediate help.

This trend prevails from the past when the government had allocated a great budget toward building infrastructure such as government offices, schools, and police offices destroyed during the civil war between the Nepalese government and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) political party from 1996 to 2006.

Unsustainable political atmosphere and poor governance contribute to challenges, and even after the war finished, political parties focused on taking government power instead of climate change impacts.

As a result, the government did create a program

44 to tackle this issue but still was not accessible for all people.

Furthermore, when natural disasters destroy infrastructure, a significant income source disappears. Around 70% of people in the country depend on agriculture for survival, but agricultural practices are still dominated by traditional ways where people depend on rainfall and monsoon for food production. As a result, planting and harvesting season are prone to change and instability unpredictable monsoon and rainfall patterns that that cause a decrease in food production.

This causes a worsening of the food epidemic because people are unable to afford and access food, so they become more dependent on foreign countries like India to import food. In fact, according to a 2011 report of the

Water and Energy Commission Secretariat Nepal, 70% of the rural population is poor, and their food production quantity can only cover a few months. The main food production in Nepal, maize, rice, and potatoes, depend on rainfall patterns. Nepal was self sufficient in food grain production until 1990, but in 2005, production fell short by 21553 metric tons and in 2006 by 179,910 metric tons due to drought, according to the ministry of forest and environment Nepal.

Depending on India for food causes further political issues for the future.

Nepal and India now share a few water resources that have resulted in ‘water wars’, according to a 2005 report in the Journal of Hydrology. Especially in the dry season, decreasing efficiency of water resources not only causes reduced food production but also a scarcity of water for basic, daily use tasks. Indirectly, these problems affect people’s lives and health as well. According to a 2015 study, the impact of climate change on Nepal’s agriculture is likely to reduce GDP by 0.8% per year in 2050, and the cumulative impact of the losses in the agriculture sector would be a GDP lower by 13% than the norm (UNDP 2016).

As a result, the potential for food insecurity and scarcity will create a critical situation, especially with the increasing unpredictable patterns of climate change.

Climate change

Photo by Lauren Peterson

45 Photo by Janu Pangeni

The International Relations Review in Nepal also creates health impacts on poor rural families. In the recent dengue fever outbreaks, many people were not aware about the disease, symptoms, and treatment methods because the government did not have effective precautionary mechanisms in place to educate the rural public about various diseases to minimize its effects. Therefore, people often did not go to the hospital and often misinterpreted the symptoms in their own ways. Coupled with the impacts of a lack of knowledge of the disease, people do not have easy access to hospitals in many rural areas that make it hard for them to get immediate treatment. Even with access to hospitals, they have scarce resources of employees,

“Climate change in Nepal also creates health impacts on poor rural families.” doctors, nurses, and medicines. As a result, people do not have trust in the government for dealing with problems they face.

According to the World Bank Group, the UN has reported in 2007 that epidemics such as cholera and diarrhea (diseases manifested from poor water quality) cause the largest impacts on humans in Nepal every year. Poor water quality is directly related to drought, rainfall, and landslides, which are growing because of climate change. However, no long-term solutions are set to address it. Therefore, those in rural areas are struggling to meet their basic needs because of underdevelopment and extreme poverty.

But now the climate change and its

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Photo by Lauren Peterson

impacts have added an extra burden on the people which often lead them to migrate out pushing them into further poverty. Nepal is located between China and India. Limited access to communication and information is a cause of low adaptive capacity in rural community.

There already have been many debates in the country about climate change, but it is not easy to address all the problems immediately. On the other hand, the government and political leaders still are not willing to create strategies and policies on how to cope with climate change impacts for the present and the coming future. According to a recent Nepali Times article, “the growth in Nepal’s petroleum use is the fastest among South Asian countries and has more than doubled in the last two years.

In the past three years, Nepal has imported 20 Billion Rupees (280M USD) worth of electricity

Photo by Lauren Peterson

annually from India, generated by coalfired thermal plant in Bihar, doubling the average Nepali’s carbon footprint.

Importing huge quantity of petroleum is promotes carbon usage instead of searching for alternative energy sources. There are many options for producing renewable energies where the government could minimize the usage of carbon. However, long-term solutions are yet to be offered with Nepal’s unsustainable government. The government is not well prepared to handle situations like outbreaks, epidemics, natural disasters and so on. Being a poor country, there are limited resources at the disposal as well. According to the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment 2019, “Governments should take strong and timely action to strengthen the sociocultural and environmental

dimensions of sustainability, while also fostering responsible economic growth in the mountain regions.” Although climate change has received public attention, no long-term solutions are yet to be offered.

Currently, the UNDP, the World Wildlife Fund and several other organizations are working for climate change impacts to help “communities adapt to climate change, carry out conservation, and gain a greater measure of economic resilience.”These kinds of programs, though impactful, are only limited to certain communities. Nepal is working with USAID to minimize climate change impacts on agriculture and adaptation, but people are still struggling to face sudden climate hazard because of the lack of awareness and resources.

The importance of education and literacy needs to be emphasized in Nepal in order to achieve both sustainability and long-term improvement.

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Photo by Nikta Khani

How the US-China Race to 5G leaves Europe Scrambling

by Grayson McSwain

The Growing Partnership Between Israel and India

by Jesse Lamba

Using Europe to Advance China’s Industrial Policy

by Connor Mooney

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How the 5G Race Leaves the EU Scrambling

by Grayson McSwain

In what is hailed as the next leap in cellular network technology, the introduction of 5G LTE networks is set to revolutionize everything from your smartphone to your car while reshaping how these devices communicate with each another. At the heart of this technological development is an economic competition between China and America, with both nations seeking to become leaders in the 5G domain. Caught in the crossfire is a conflicted Europe, who is torn between American security concerns and the lure of Chinese economic incentives. In order to advance the development of its own 5G infrastructure, Europe must now make difficult decisions in the coming months.

Europe’s actions will have major implications on the race to develop 5G, which is set to revolutionize interconnectivity and bring vast improvements to our daily lives. While 5G LTE will be over 100 times faster than 4G, 5G is more than just an improvement in speed.

The new generation of cellular network technology is supposed to significantly improve the latency rate, the sending and receiving speed between devices, to an almost instant real-time connection. This real-time communication will enable self-driving cars, remote surgeries powered by robots, and the creation of “smart cities”, an interconnected grid of street lamps, traffic lights, and bridges. Evidently, 5G technology will be an immense boom for the global economy and enhance global connectivity.

However, whoever successfully develops and implements 5G has the most to gain. By capitalizing on a successful rollout of 5G, the U.S. or China will become leaders in the industry and ensure that countries to follow will depend on their developers’ devices and applications. Whoever wins the race to deploy 5G will gain critical strategic and economic

“In a time of economic rivalry and mistrust between the two nations, policymakers are viewing 5G development as an important battle in a zero-sum economic war.” influence abroad, while also solidifying a market for domestic companies. Leading the way are China and the United States, who both nations recognize the benefits of developing 5G and aim to establish a profitable market for the technology. In a time of economic rivalry and mistrust between the two nations, policymakers are viewing 5G development as an

important battle in a zero-sum economic war.

After the United States effectively banned most Chinese equipment from North American and Oceanic telecom markets our of national security concerns, with nations like Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Japan all prohibiting Chinese companies to build and sell essential parts for 5G networks in their countries, Europe now faces the pull of the 5G competition, even while it significantly lags behind in developing independent 5G networks.

But China has established a domineering position within the European market. Telecom businesses, most notably tech giant Huawei, have specifically targeted Europe, with 28 of Huawei’s 50 5G commercial global contracts signed with European operators.

When including China’s second largest telecom company, ZTE, the two account for over 40% of the European telecommunications market. European operators have come to rely on the cheaper infrastructure equipment that Chinese companies like Huawei provide. Compared to the U.S., China builds more equipment at a lower prices, leaving the U.S. at a major disadvantage within Europe.

This predatory pricing model and the rapid development of Chinese 5G technology is largely possible through Chinese government subsidies. As of now, China has outspent the U.S. by roughly $24 billion, with plans to spend a total of $411 billion in 5G

Fall 2019 investment over the next decade.

These investments have enabled Huawei and ZTE to rapidly develop their own 5G capabilities, while also providing for competitive pricing compared to U.S. and European telecommunication companies, like Qualcomm and Nokia. But while China has made considerable inroads, they have yet to establish the 5G hegemony in Europe that they seek.

Whereas China has taken great initiative in its colossal capital investment, the United States has placed greater emphasis on developing 5G capabilities and challenging Chinese aspirations.

Although some subsidies have been granted to replace Huawei equipment in rural America under the “5G Leadership Act”, the $700 million granted by Congress is merely a drop in the bucket compared to Chinese investments.

Instead, the U.S. has placed greater emphasis on empowering private companies and clearing regulatory roadblocks to maintain its lead in software development. The U.S. has also worked closely with European telecom companies, such as Ericsson and Nokia, with the latter providing essential network switching equipment that American companies lack.

The Chinese edge in infrastructure remains a significant challenge for American companies in Europe, though national security concerns with Chinese businesses have allowed some level of pushback.

As a hardware provider, Huawei needs to be able to send updates in the same way Apple does with iOS. However, this linkage to networks comes with major security implications, because as long as there is a connection

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Photo by Naomi Carolan

between China and its foreign cell towers, Chinese surveillance agencies can use the connection to insert malware into networks and monitor intelligence; under China’s National Intelligence Law, citizens and businesses of China are required to support state information-gathering. With this looming national security threat, the U.S. has pressured European allies to ban Huawei equipment from being used to develop 5G infrastructure, as they did with Japan and Oceanic allies. So far the U.S. has persuaded the Czech Republic and Poland to follow and ban Huawei from developing 5G infrastructure while also convincing Germany, France and Britain to agree to tighter regulations on core aspects of 5G networks. Regardless of U.S. pressure, Europe is heavily reliant on China’s presence in the region. Estimates have shown that banning Chinese products would

cost European countries additional 55 billion euros ($62 billion) in developing 5G infrastructure in Europe, and delay 5G rollout by roughly 18 months (as estimated by the telecoms lobby group GSMA).

With this level of dependency, China has already established itself as an irreplaceable supplier of 5G equipment and will be able to maintain a large degree of influence over European 5G development. This leaves Europe in the center of a great power contest between two technological and economic superpowers, with many difficult choices to be made.

Most of Europe is now seeking a middle path that places a greater emphasis on security requirements, while not singling out any individual companies. In the EU’s guidance for the implementation of 5G telecoms systems across the European Union, the European Commission recommended

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51 members to assess cyber threats to the 5G infrastructure in their national markets and to then establish a common minimum security standard for Europe. This policy has been welcomed by Huawei, with Abraham Liu, chief representative of Huawei to the EU, stating “Huawei welcomes the objective and proportionate approach of the European Commission’s recommendation on 5G security.” However, Europe must be cautious about the level of commitment to Huawei products.

Citing security concerns, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has threatened to withhold U.S. intelligence from European states that utilize Huawei for key infrastructure, stating that “insufficient security will impede the United States’ ability to share certain information within trusted networks.” By ignoring American concerns, European nations risk losing access to U.S. intelligence, increasing security risks and straining the transatlantic alliance.

Europe faces hard choices in handling U.S. and Chinese interests in the region. While 5G networks will economically benefit Europe and lead to great advancements in technological possibilities, the underlying rivalry in its development has thrown Europe in the middle of a superpower tech race. For now, it seems that Europe intends to balance its 5G progression with moderate increases in security, to acquiesce to U.S. demands.

Though European nations are receptive to U.S. concerns, ultimately the contributions made

by Chinese telecom companies are too vital for the development of European 5G infrastructure.

Similarly, U.S. security concerns cannot be completely ignored given both plausibility and likely U.S. retaliation. It remains to be seen to what exact degree European nations will heed American concerns and in turn to what degree the United States will

respond to the perceived security threats. What is for certain is that European nations will continue to develop their 5G networks under the influence of the two largest 5G competitors and that the final result will be molded by both Chinese and American ambitions.

Photo by Michael Yang

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The Growing Partnership Between India and Israel

by Jesse Lamba

Every year, thousands of young Israelis travel through India, appreciating the rich cultural history that has graced the subcontinent for nearly a millennium. India, for its part, recognized Israel’s legitimacy.

“We would have [recognized Israel] long ago, because Israel is a fact,” said Prime Minister Jawal Nehru.

Leaving aside the Muslim minority, other ethnic groups in India have long held a positive view of the Jewish people, Zionism and Israeli legitimacy. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) first came out publicly in 2003 supporting a visit

by Ariel Sharon, the Israeli Prime Minister at the time, along with a government coalition that included supporters from the opposition party. Hindu Nationalists, some of whom come from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) volunteer group, have long hailed the Zionist cause and the success of the Jewish state. Rhetoric coming from the RSS on Israel reflects the profound appropriation.

“If the Zionists’ dreams are ever realized – if Palestine becomes a Jewish state – it will gladden us almost as much as our Jewish friends,” wrote Vinayak Damodar Savarkar, a Hindu Nationalist.

Additionally, it is also important to remember that current Prime Minister Nahindra Modi was an RSS member before he joined the BJP party. Sikhs, for their part, assisted in the liberation of Haifa from the German Empire, Austria-Hungarian Empire, and Ottomans in 1918. As a result,

September 29th is now recognized as Haifa Day, and memorials stand in New Delhi and Bangalore commemorating the efforts of the Sikhs that died defending modern-day Israel. Likewise, a memorial is also dedicated in Haifa today with celebrations honoring those Indian soldiers.

Being careful about maintaining relationships with the Arab nations and supporting the Palestinian cause, India has long held a veil over its relationship with the

“Approximately 50,000 Israelis visited India in 2010, with 40,000 Indians visiting the Jewish state around the same time.”

Jewish State. Indian politicians have long attempted to tread the fine line of ‘seeming impartiality.’ However, visits to Israel have still occurred, including Modi visiting before becoming the Prime Minister of India. In the meantime, three more Indian ministers visited Israel and received warm welcomes as well.

David Daneli, a career diplomat based in India called the visit of the ministers “as significant as the visits of Ministers Kamal Nath, Sharad

Pawar, and Kapil Sibal to Israel recently...help[ing] further consolidate the ‘robust’ ties between the two countries.”

Despite India’s claim of “unwavering support for the Palestinian cause,” the Indian Foreign Minister S.M Krishna’s visit to Israel in 2012 paved the way for India’s leap toward a firm underpinning of India’s bilateral relations with Israel. Three major pegs were discussed: Economic, Defence, People-to-People Contacts. Bilateral free trade agreements in the informational technology, agriculture, bio-technology, and homeland security sectors were all solidified by Mr. Krishna’s cabinet.

By 2014, trade between the two nations had reached $4.52 billion and has continued to grow. India’s growing defence needs have also led to new dealings worth billions. In the post-2007 period, concluded mega deals include that of Spyder surface-to-air missiles worth $1 billion, Barak-8 tactical air defence systems for $1.4 billion. India is also currently Israel’s largest arms buyer.

The final peg, the people-to people-contacts, are substantiated by two mainframes. First, significant tourism occurs from both nations.

Approximately 50,000 Israelis visited India in 2010, with 40,000 Indians visiting the Jewish state around the same time. For a nation the size of Israel, tourism has had a net positive effect on GDP. Shared ideals and visions encompass the ‘softer’ more qualitative aspect of the people to people contacts. Israeli President Shimon Peres referred to India as “greatest democracy on earth,” and Prime Minister Benjamin Net-

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anyahu stated that “India and Israel are two ancient peoples seizing the future - in technology, in innovation, in enterprise, and I think we can seize it even better by our cooperation.” In return, the BJP party’s own admiration for the ethno-democracy that is the Jewish state reflects the desire for the maintenance of Indian nationhood based rooted in a ‘Hindustan’ like its common language, culture, and religion. Both Modi and Netenyahu have made key distinctions between rather than direct exclusion and have taken steps that promote ethno-nationalistic sentiements. Thus, a cozy relationship between the two nations should be no surprise to anyone for these multitude of reasons.

The true cementing of the relationship occurred when Nahindra Modi of the BJP was elected in 2014. Mr. Netenyahu, took the time to personally congratulate the new prime minister and the two reportedly discussed an increase in cooperation. The following years saw a deepening of the India-Israel commitment to a more beneficial partnership.Under prime minister Modi’s leadership, India has not voted against Israel on several resolutions at the United Nations. Most notably, in the summer of 2019, India voted with Israel against the grant of observer status to the Palistianian organization ‘Shahed.’ The three pegs discussed earlier are exemplified through various visits by state officials from both sides since 2014.

Among the visits, a signifPhoto by Carolyn Hoffman

icant first time visit by the defence minister of Israel, Moshe Ya’alon, stood in contrast to the Indian refusal of Ehud Barak (former defence minister) in 2012. The event showed the increasing cooperation on security as well as Ya’alon’s openness to selling more or less anything. It signified how keen Israel was on keeping its largest customer well supplied. India, for its part, has relied on Israeli technology to supplement and upgrade its military. India’s decision to use the Israeli alternative as opposed to U.S-made Javalin is an additional example of increased cooperation.

Perhaps the most significant visit came when prime minister Modi made an official visit to Israel in 2017. He was the first prime minister to make the trip, but he did not visit Palestine. The Indian media questioned the move as “change of policy.” Again, the change of policy that the media referred to was already in the making since 2007. The official visit saw friendly gestures such as the pledge of Mr. Netanyahu to build a Indian cultural center in the capital, Tel Aviv.

Prime Minister Modi also visited the famous memorial in Haifa to commemorate the Indian soldiers who perished there. In a speech to the Indian diaspora, he promised citizenship cards and recognized the strategic partnership in a televised event held in Tel Aviv. Israel also named a flower after the Indian prime minister as personal touch to the relationship.

Most importantly, however, Israel and India signed seven key agreements referred to as MoU’s.

These agreements included the I4F fund which dedicated 40 million USD to the research and development of technology in industrial sectors. India’s growing need for water and its conservation were supplemented by a joint task force on the issue of water.

“We agreed that efficiency of water and resource use; water conservation and its purification; productivity increases in agriculture are key areas in deepening our bilateral cooperation,” said PM Modi.

Best practices and implementation techniques with respect to agriculture was also discussed.

The three year cooperative effort on agriculture reflected the keen interest of Mr. Modi to help farmers across his nation learn from the massive success of Israeli farming techniques and production methods. The final MoU’s focused on Space bound technology and India’s desire to become a superpower with improved geospatial capabilities such as satellites propulsion technology. The MoU’s effectiveness lies in the skills and transfer of knowledge that has the potential to propel Indian industries to new heights.

The defense agreements solidify the country’s national security interests and allow the country to be a major player Asia-pacific theater in years to come.

Outside of traditional pegs of cooperation, the Research and

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Analysis Wing better known as RAW has worked closely with Mossad, and intelligence sharing has been documented since the 1990s.

The two intelligence organizations faced similar threats, which include but are not limited to radical Islamic elements. Joint exercises and activities by both agencies have also been conducted, notably on Israeli territory. After the terror attacks in Mumbai on November 26th, 2008, Israel offered support in the form of special operations forces, paramedics, and investigative personnel.

“If they need us we will help where needed,” said Israeli diplomat Tzipi Livni.

The cooperation between the two countries is definitely mutually beneficial for years to come.

Economic success for Indian farmers has grown through the efficiency in crop yields for mangoes and vegetables in the Indian state of Bihar.

In the state of Rajasthan, 100 tons of olives were produced through a joint agricultural program that encouraged the planting of native crops. Additionally, efforts to clean the infamously dirty Ganges river have seen Israeli technology play a major role. In the technology sector, has seen groundbreaking research occur on the human genome and condensed matter (physics).

Success in space collaboration has grown in leaps and bounds as a Israeli collaboration on India’s satellite technology has allowed for state of the art radar and imaging equipment to be installed as well.

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The Israeli satellite TecSAR was successfully launched on India’s PSLV rocket to help monitor threats from Iran. This project is one example of the wide reaching cooperation across sectors that has strengthened the ties of the two nations.

Additionally, India’s formerly ill-equipped military has been modernized through the $5 billion worth of new equipment that India has acquired from Israel. The Indian air force has benefitted from new UAVs, laser guided bombs, and upgrades to Russian made fighter planes. High tech missiles such as the Barak-8 for Anti-ship and Anti-aircraft use have bolstered the Indian Navy’s capabilities. India’s interest in increasing influence in nearby waters and maintenance of territorial areas were greatly supplemented through the reception of more UAVs such as the Haropdrone.

Cooperation on Oil and Gas have also increased, furthering social perceptions and cultural ties.

Interfaith relations are heralded, as exemplified by the Jewish-Hindu interfaith leadership Summit in New Delhi.

“Jews have lived in India for over 2,000 years and have never been discriminated against. This is something unparalleled in human history,” said Rabbi Metzger.

Indians, for the most part, maintain a positive view of the Jewish state, with more than 70 percent saying they perceive Israel in a favorable light.

The cooperation between the world’s largest democracy and the Jewish state grows stronger by the year. The re-election of Prime Minister Modi will most likely see further cooperative efforts come to fruition in the next decade. A multitiered relationship that encompasses trade, cultural relationships, mutual admiration, and military cooperation is what binds these nations together and will do so for many years to come.

India’s pivot toward bilateral relations with Israel may not necessarily sour relations with Iran or the Gulf states. India is growing more powerful by the year and smaller nations have an economic and political interest in maintaining solid ties with subcontinental nation. 7.6 million Indian expatriates are currently living in the Gulf states. Furthermore, Indian business is currently thriving in the Gulf states, and India is one of Saudi Arabia’s largest oil consumers. Free trade deals with the Gulf accounted for 104 billion dollars in fiscal year 17-18. This diversified cooperation has created an integrated relationship with the GCC. India’s Minister of State for External Affairs, M.J. Akbar, noted the four key parameters of India’s relations with the Gulf as being non-descriptive, non-intrusive, non-judgemental and not taking sides in intra-regional disputes. India’s disinterest in becoming directly involved in Middle East conflict enables its relationship with Israel to continue to grow.

Photo by Madeline Van Heusen

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The Evolution of the Muslim Brotherhood

by Katie Barnes

The identity of the Society of Muslim Brothers in social and historical development has changed significantly over time. The organization’s early days focused on providing social services and making the Sunnah and Qur’an central to everyday life. Today, the Muslim Brotherhood remains a powerful force in many Middle Eastern countries. The Brotherhood today is centered around activism and it is designated as a terrorist group in Bahrain, Syria, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. The changes that the group has undergone over time have

resulted from political events as much as from varying perspectives on religious ideology.

Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood was founded, had been a protectorate of Great Britain since 1882. The role of British infrastructure was very prominent, and some Modernist scholars thought of the Western world as a model claimed that the reason many Islamic societies lagged behind was due to their younger age relative to Europe. Many Muslims embraced clothing, media, and other aspects of Western culture and “appropriated Europe’s political, economic,

educational, and legal institutions”.

At the same time, Egypt faced many recurring political issues. These included unsuccessful attempts at industrialization, disputes between foreign investors and the colonial government, and vast amounts of public debt. Consequently, the entire Egyptian nation became dependent on the British colonial government and European powers that had engaged in high-risk speculation. Local economies were destroyed by the influx of British goods and the West continued to interfere in Egyptian daily life in order to ensure a return on its

Photo by Rebecca Moot

investments.

This instability provided the social backdrop for the formation of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood was founded in 1924

by Hasan al-Banna. Although this was two years after Egypt had become an independent state, the British continued to be heavily involved in Egyptian economic and political life, controlling Egyptian foreign affairs and the military.

This political climate directly led to al-Banna’s call to action to inspire Muslims to use their faith

as a basis for political activism and social reform. He established as a comprehensive creed that applied to every aspect of life, accommodated other ideologies (such as the advancement of science), and served as an enormously practical source of social reform. Muslim Brotherhood Islam became external- a practical guide for society and everyday life. Initially, the organization was characterized as a movement for the lower classes in rural communities. However, it rapidly expanded to include many

middle-class members who lived in cities and held a wide variety of occupations and educational backgrounds.

Less than two decades after its foundation in rural Ismailia, Egypt, the organization had amassed an estimated three hundred to six hundred thousand members.

As the colonial era ended and the world entered the Cold War, the political context of Egypt evolved. In 1952, the constitutional monarchy of King Farouk was overthrown by a group led by Gamal

Fall 2019 Abdel Nasser. This event ended the British occupation of Egypt, encouraged strong nationalism, and installed Nasser as the new president of the country. Initially, the Muslim Brotherhood fully supported the new president. However, the Brotherhood started diverging from the new regime when Nasser blocked the creation of political parties and civilian government.

Two years after the coup d’état, as a result of the Brotherhood’s mobilization of university students against his administration, Nasser signed an order to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood, which began a period of stringent suppression.

Over the course of sixteen years, Brotherhood members were forced underground, sent to inhumane prison camps, tortured, and exiled.

Facing persecution and abuse from the state, Muslim Brothers began to change from a social serviceoriented group to a group focused on changing the foundations of society.

This shift was best characterized by Sayyid Qutb, a Brotherhood member who was himself sentenced to 25 years in prison with hard labor. Throughout his prison sentence, Qutb wrote letters explicating that he believed that at the heart of the weakness of Egyptian society was a concept called “jahiliyyah”. In the Qur’an, this term referred to the period of ignorance before the revelation of the Qur’an to Muhammad. To Qutb, jahiliyyah took on a much more modern definition: it represented every outside force corrupting Islam and, as a result, Egypt.

“Jahili” society included Western democracy, the continued influence of former imperial powers on Egypt, and hierarchical and corrupt

56 systems of power and leadership inside Islam itself. He believed it was the duty of the Muslim Brotherhood to fight against external cultural and political influences to create a more ideal version of society free from Jahiliyyah.

Jahiliyyah came to represent all of the political factors that led to the Brotherhood’s travail.

The hostile environment created by the regime was what propelled Qutb to prominence in the first place, and what made Qutb’s ideas more appealing to Brotherhood members.

While al-Banna was content with

“Initially, the organization was characterized as a movement for the lower classes in rural communities.” providing an Islamic alternative to the imperialist state that existed during his time, Qutb moved beyond this to incite a changing of the state itself. Qutb’s experiences of violence by the Nasser regime were the cause of this shift. On August 29th, 1966, he was executed, viewed by the Brotherhood as a martyr for the cause. Sayyid Qutb faced political oppression and, as a result, wrote Milestones to design a society and political system which was, in his view, free from such oppression.

Because many of his fellow Muslim Brothers faced similar acts of violence and harassment, his extreme ideology rose in popularity.

From 1970 to 1981, under president Anwar Sadat, the Brotherhood was treated very differently. On one hand, the organization still considered illegal and was not allowed to organize into a legitimate political party.

However, Sadat ended the violent persecution of the organization and was relatively cooperative with its presence in Egyptian activism. This paved the way for the Brotherhood to regain influence under president Hosni Mubarak, who came to power after Sadat’s assassination.

Although Mubarak held a moderate policy towards the Brotherhood throughout his presidency, balancing any suppression with many accommodations and increasing its legitimacy as a political organization, the group continued to mobilize student activists and criticize Mubarak towards the end of his administration. In 2011, during the Arab Spring protests, the Muslim Brotherhood joined demonstrators in Tahrir Square to call for Mubarak’s resignation. On January 25th, thousands flooded the streets of Cairo to protest against the president, condemning his view of “Egypt as a regional policeman,” the enormous amount of power given to the military over civilians in the name of “security”, the rapidly widening gap between rich and poor, and his push to involve the nation in regional conflicts throughout the early 2000s. After eighteen days of massive protests, Hosni Mubarak stepped down as the leader of Egypt, leaving the nation in the hands of the army.

In joining forces with secular and even Christian demonstrators , the Muslim Brotherhood showed the world that it could not possibly be considered a purely religious

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57 organization.

The resignation was the beginning of a significant evolution for the Muslim Brotherhood. With Mubarak gone, there were no more barriers to the Brotherhood becoming a legitimate political party. The first step in this transformation occurred after a few months of army rule. Many protest groups remained disordered, so tensions between the military and the protestors increased, resulting in violent responses from the police and military including tear gas, arrests, and beatings. In all, an estimated 840 people were killed and over 6,000 were injured in the first five months of 2011. Because its leaders had made deals with the interim government to abandon Tahrir Square and become the only group against Mubarak to fully support the military, the Brotherhood was not as significantly impacted by this crackdown.

At the same time, the organization continued to reap the benefits of the highly systematized nature of its membership. From its foundation, the Muslim Brotherhood has been known for its rigorous membership process, which involved multiple “successive phases of evaluation and training” before being granted full membership in the organization. As a result,

Photo by Nikta Khani

each member is prepared to follow the authority of any organization leaders and is well-versed in the vision of the group. This high level of indoctrination combined with leniency from the military and police allowed the Brotherhood to become the only coherent political collective in the aftermath of Mubarak’s exit.

It was at this contentious moment in November of 2011 that the Muslim Brotherhood pushed for elections to be held, and two months later, in January of 2012, a presidential election was held with Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi being elected.

Although the Egyptian people might have originally been open to the Morsi administration, this attitude quickly faded. The Brotherhood dismayed people with the contrast between its emotional call to develop a “transnational Islamist project” and its promise to the public to be devoted to the Egyptian people. Since the rise of Sayyid Qutb, the Brotherhood has held that only “when, in a society, the sovereignty belongs to God alone, expressed in its obedience to the Divine Law… is every person in that society free”. This vision is in opposition with the desires of the other protest groups during the Egyptian Revolution of 2011.

Additionally, many Egyptians had

issues with Morsi’s presidency because he failed to create a new constitution and continued to consolidate his own power, including promoting Islamist groups and jailing political dissidents. As a result, many people felt little difference between Mubarak and Morsi’s level of power and contributed to rapidly declining public opinion of the Muslim Brotherhood over the course of 2012 and 2013.

The Muslim Brotherhood gaining the parliamentary majority of Egypt following Mubarak’s oust was the final step in its evolution from politically-oriented social group to an absolute political party. From its formation by Hasan al-Banna in opposition to the political system of imperialism, to the Nasser regime’s brutal repression sparking the popularity of Sayyid Qutb’s radical ideology, to its transformation into a full-fledged political party in the wake of the Egyptian Revolution of 2011, the Muslim Brotherhood has always been, at its core, political.

Its interpretation of scripture and use of religious concepts serves its purpose of mobilizing a political force. While it may have lost power in Egypt and gained the antipathy of the Egyptian public, the Brotherhood continues to be a significant multinational political movement to this day.

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Using Europe to Advance China’s Industrial Policy

by Conor Mooney

Chinese companies are making inroads in Europe. Mostly state-owned or with state direction, these companies are making investments in high-tech manufacturing firms and in the research and development (R&D) sector. These investments are a component of Made in China 2025, an initiative launched

by Beijing in May 2015. The policy goals are simple: pivot China’s industries from low-tech manufacturing to high-tech manufacturing and R&D. In doing so, the Chinese government believes it will help sustain China’s high levels of economic growth and continue its ascent on the global stage from the middle-income tier to the high-income tier.

The industries targeted by Made in

Photo by Michael Yang

China 2025 include high-speed rail, synthetic new materials, biopharmaceuticals, AI, aviation, smart manufacturing, telecommunications, semiconductors, and robotics.

China uses an array of domestic policies to help realize these goals. Many of these—such as requiring foreign companies in certain sectors to create joint ventures with local Chinese firms to gain access to the market—are criticized by the international community as unfair and protectionist. Subsidies implemented by the Chinese government are also frequently chastised. Up until recently, Chinese citizens buying electric or new energy vehicles— one of the Made in China 2025’s targeted industries—received large

subsidies for their purchases. The Chinese government also encourages Western companies in target industries to invest in Chinese manufacturing. In doing so, Western firms bring their technology to China, increasing knowledge spillover, innovation, and transfer technology.

However, the policy measures behind Made in China 2025 are not confined to the domestic market. Chinese firms that operate overseas are investing in foreign companies that operate in target industries; the majority of these firms are heavily supported or owned by the Chinese government. Although Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (ODI) dropped precipitously in 2016 following the imposition of capital controls put in place to keep the economy stable, ODI that does occur remains strategically focused on information control technologies, health and biotechnology, and automotive manufacturing.

According to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, the country had $1,1085,468,000 invested in Europe at the end of 2017. Phillipe Le Corre, an academic who studies Chinse investment in Europe, claims that much of this ODI is politically motivated—70% of it being invested by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) controlled by Beijing.

Examining the specifics of Chinese investment in Europe reveals how targeted it is at the industries central to Made in China 2025. For instance, in November of 2018, Huadong Medicine Co. Ltd. acquired Sinclair Pharma in a $222,000,000 transaction. In April 2017, the Creat Group—a Chinese

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59 investment firm based in Beijing— purchased Biotest AG, a German pharmaceutical company that specializes in the production of blood plasma products. These kinds of purchases give Chinese companies—and often also the Chinese state—access to valuable intellectual property, expertise, and technology central to succeeding in the target industries. Beyond simply purchasing shares in these companies, Chinese firms have also opened R&D centers in Europe—like Great Wall Motors, who opened a center in Kottingbrunn, Austria in 2017. The company selected Austria for its new R&D center partly because of its proximity to a large “automotive component supply industry” and its “high educational level.” These kinds of investments provide Great Wall Motors access to new knowledge and technology it can use to enhance its presence in the market.

While ostensibly positive for European economies, Chinese in-

vestments are not always welcomed

by European governments. Germany recently passed a law lowering the threshold at which the national government could block foreign investment in sensitive industries.

The country now sees China as a “core competitor” after its acquisition of German robotics manufacturer Kuka in 2016 and attempted acquisition of Aixtron, a German computer chip manufacturer. The Netherlands and Sweden are considering similar measures, and the UK is stepping up its power to review merger and acquisition transactions in select high-tech industries.

Next year, a European Union-wide regulation concerning member state coordination of FDI screening will go into effect. The law encourages member states to share data on foreign investment activities in sectors considered essential to the European economy.

China is at a crossroads in its economic development: can it make

it out of the middle-income trap and become a rich country by developing these target industries? Europe is at a crossroads with China: while the two have a long history of mutually beneficial trade, how much longer can Europe tolerate unfair practices in the Chinese market and Chinese acquisition of high-tech oriented European companies? Europe needs to figure out the answers to these questions if it hopes to develop an effective policy vis-à-vis China and its investment in sensitive European industries. Should each country develop its own FDI screening law? Should the EU strengthen the law it just passed and present a united front against Chinese encroachment in the high-tech sector?

Should Europe welcome Chinese investment with more open arms?

These are difficult questions that are sure to spark debate as China continues to rise and present itself as an economic competitor to Europe and the rest of the world.

Photo by Harini Natarajan

Fall 2019

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