Equitable Access to Space- Interplanetary Fellow final report by Interplanetary Initiative at Arizona State University

EQUITABLE ACCESS TO SPACE Emerging Spacefaring Nations & Developing Countries

Interplanetary Initiative

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INTERPLANETARY INITIATIVE

About Arizona State University ASU is a comprehensive public research university, measured not by whom it excludes, but by whom it includes and how they succeed; advancing research and discovery of public value; and assuming fundamental responsibility for the economic, social, cultural and overall health of the communities it serves. About the Interplanetary Initiative The Interplanetary Initiative at Arizona State University engages broadly across disciplines and sectors to create an interplanetary future built upon cooperative and inclusive new structures, systems, and perspectives. We study and solve the big social and systems questions that pave our future in space. The Interplanetary Initiative most recently announced a collaboration with Blue Origin and other space leaders to launch a premier, mixed-use space station in low Earth orbit designed to open multiple new markets in space. ©2022 Arizona Board of Regents/Arizona State University All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or used in any manner without the prior written permission of the Interplanetary Initiative, except for the use of brief quotations. This publication does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Interplanetary Initiative and Arizona State University. Published by the Interplanetary Initiative, Arizona State University. Cover image: Wikicommons/NASA (Adapted)

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Preface

rizona State University’s Interplanetary Initiative (II), co-founded by President Michael Crow and Vice President Lindy Elkins-Tanton, is a pioneer for integrated research and learning to investigate, communicate, and define our human space future. The II is a leading space center, creating private-public partnerships and driving our positive human space future for exploration by identifying the key needs and filling them with interdisciplinary teams. The II engages with the space community and the wider public through education, research, events, and partnerships. Interdisciplinary educational programs at the II are designed to train successful leaders and problem-solvers for science and technologyrelated fields of the future. The research conducted at the II revolves around answering the big questions on space exploration, innovation, and inclusion. The II regularly holds workshops to brainstorm the biggest questions related to space, form project teams, and develop innovative solutions to these challenges. The Interplanetary Initiative lab is an interdisciplinary research and development workspace committed to innovation and discovery. We connect external partners with ASU students, faculty, and staff to produce solutions for space exploration and development.

We design, build, and test space hardware and software to solve society's urgent space challenges. Arizona State University contributes to one of the most robust and interconnected environments for innovation in the world. To help realize this full potential, the Interplanetary Initiative partners with companies and organizations to drive future space exploration opportunities. Our members play a vital role in supporting the Interplanetary Initiative's vision to forge the way for humans in space and thus to create a bolder and better society. The Interplanetary Initiative Fellowship is an annual program that supports bold, interdisciplinary projects and thinkers to further our positive space future. The Fellowship is at the heart of furthering our mission by connecting disciplines and sectors on Earth and beyond. This report is the product of the first II Fellowship project, in what will be a series of annual outputs to contribute to our mission of a positive human space future for exploration. For more information about the Interplanetary Initiative and the fellowship program, contact: Sona Seely, sona.seely@asu.edu

Author Biography Theodora Ogden LLM MSc is the 2022 Fellow at the Interplanetary Initiative at Arizona State University. She is currently on secondment from her role as a Defense and Security Analyst at RAND Europe, where she regularly conducts research on emerging technologies and space. Theodora previously worked in the Office of the Legal Advisor at NATO HQ SACT, studying the intersection of international law and weapon technologies. She also held a fellowship at the Human Security Centre in London, in addition to a yearlong traineeship at the Fundamental Rights Agency of the European Union.

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Contents Preface .......................................................................................................................................... i Acknowledgements....................................................................................................................... iii Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... iv Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... vi 1. Introduction 1 Objectives & study scope ......................................................................................................... 2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 5 2. International Legal Framework 10 Geostationary Orbit ................................................................................................................ 12 International Space Law ......................................................................................................... 14 New spacefarers .................................................................................................................... 17 The way forward..................................................................................................................... 19 3. Case Study Analysis 23 Brazil ...................................................................................................................................... 24 Saudi Arabia .......................................................................................................................... 30 South Korea ........................................................................................................................... 35 South Africa ........................................................................................................................... 40 4. New Spacefarers 47 Rationales for Space Agency establishment .......................................................................... 49 Benefits of equitable access to space .................................................................................... 51 Challenges of more actors in space ....................................................................................... 53 5. Recommendations 57 i.

Establish a clear national space policy/strategy ............................................................. 58

ii.

Ensure steady space funding......................................................................................... 60

iii.

Invest in human capital .................................................................................................. 62

iv.

Specialize in niche technology areas ............................................................................. 65

Balance public/commercial space activities ................................................................... 67

vi.

Foster international collaboration ................................................................................... 69

vii.

Engage with space law and governance ...................................................................... 71

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Acknowledgements

any thanks to the Interplanetary Initiative at ASU for commissioning this study as part of the inaugural fellowship program. It is a great honor to serve as the first II fellow. My thanks go to Dr Michael Crow, President of Arizona State University and the II, for his support and warm welcome to the ranks at ASU. I am eternally grateful to Dr Lindy Elkins-Tanton, the Vice President of the II and the Principal Investigator of the NASA Psyche Mission, for her advice and oversight, and without whom this project could not have taken place. I would also like to thank Jessica Rousset, the Deputy Director of the II and Dr Evgenya Shkolnik (Associate Director) for her review.

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A very special thanks to Sona Seely for her outstanding coordination of the fellowship. I am grateful to the II leadership for their insights and guidance, and my thanks to the entirety of the II team, who have provided extensive support and encouragement. I am indebted to my colleagues at RAND, who firstly allowed me to take up this opportunity, and secondly participated in workshops and interviews. I am grateful to all expert participants in this project, some of whom have requested to remain anonymous. A list of expert contributors can be found in the Annex of this report.

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Abbreviations AEB – Brazilian Space Agency ArabSat – Arab Satellite Communications Organization ASAT – Anti-Satellite ASBU – Arab States Broadcasting Union ASU – Arizona State University CEAA – Center of Excellence for Aeronautics and Astronautics CHM – Common Heritage of Mankind CNES – French National Space Agency COPUOS – Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space CPUT – Cape Peninsula University of Technology DCTA – Aerospace Technology and Science Department EISCAT – European Incoherent Scatter ESA – European Space Agency F’SATI – French South African Institute of Technology GDP – Gross Domestic Product GEO – Geostationary Orbit GLOBE – Global Learning and Observation to Benefit the Environment Program GLONASS – Russian Global Navigation Satellite System GPS – Global Positioning System GSO – Geosynchronous Orbit HEO – Highly Elliptical Orbit IATA – International Air Transport Association II – Interplanetary Initiative INPE – National Institute of Space Research ISR – Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance ITU – International Telecommunications Union KACST – King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology KARI – Korea Aerospace Research Institute KASI – Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute KPS – Korea Positioning System LEO – Low Earth Orbit

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LSOSAWG – Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities Working Group MA – Moon Agreement MDASat – Maritime Domain Awareness Satellite MEO – Medium Earth Orbit NASA – National Aeronautics and Space Administration OEWG – Open-ended Working Group OPEC – Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OST – Outer Space Treaty PESTLE-M – Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental and Military REA – Rapid Evidence Assessment ROK – Republic of Korea SAC – Satellite Applications Centre SANSA – South African National Space Agency SARAO – South African Radio Astronomy Observatory SEU – Saudi Electronic University SMART – Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Timebound SME – Small-to-Medium Enterprise SKA – Square Kilometer Array SSC – Saudi Space Commission SSR – Space Sustainability Rating SWOT – Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunity, and Threats STEM – Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics TSA – Technology Safeguards Agreement UAE – United Arab Emirates UK – United Kingdom UN – United Nations UNOOSA – United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs US – United States VLM – Microsatellite Launch Vehicle

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Executive Summary rom enabling internet connectivity, to observing weather patterns on Earth, space is integral to critical infrastructure, communications, navigation, and many aspects of day-to-day life. A growing number of countries are looking to space to facilitate economic development. For example, countries are using Earth monitoring capabilities to assess climatic factors, locate resources, prevent natural disasters, and improve agriculture.

The expanding ecosystem of governments and private companies presents new opportunities for technology development and space exploration. The commercialization of space technologies has driven down costs, lowering barriers to space access. CubeSats are well within the capabilities of most nations, due to their affordability and simplicity. However, the orbital environment is becoming increasingly ‘congested, contested and competitive’.1 There is the risk that international cooperation is being divided into “space blocs”, along the geopolitical lines of cooperation on Earth.2 The space community is expanding, with many actors holding various interests, intentions, priorities and ambitions. This study provides an overview of the evolving space domain and emerging players. This report also identifies challenges relating to equitable space access, assessing how to overcome these, in the form of practicable policy recommendations for developing countries. The underlying research is part of

wider aims to foster the principle of space as the “province of humankind”. The research objectives for this study are outlined in the box below: Research Objectives 1. Map the international legal framework in space regarding access to Geostationary orbital (GEO) slots. 2. Analyze the key space priorities, capabilities, partnerships, and challenges facing major emerging spacefaring countries. 3. Gauge the potential economic, geostrategic and wider societal benefits of space programs in developing countries. 4. Identify risks and challenges of more actors in space, as well as key enablers and obstacles to inclusive and peaceful outcomes in the space domain. 5. Determine good practices and recommendations for developing countries seeking a greater presence in space.

INTERNATIONAL LEGAL FRAMEWORK

he 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST) sets forth that the exploration and use of outer space is “for the benefit and in the interests of all countries”.3 The OST was drafted in the context of the Cold War, partly to prevent warfare in space. It does not sufficiently account for today’s rapidly evolving space sector and emerging uses for space, such as future resource extraction. Satellites in Geostationary Orbit (GEO) travel on an Equatorial path in the same direction of

Eberhardt, Jeffrey (2019) Outer Space Increasingly ‘Congested, Contested, and Competitive’, United Nations, 25 October 2019. https://www.un.org/press/en/2013/gadis3487.doc.htm 2 Ben-Itzhak, Svetla (2022) Space Blocs: The future of international cooperation in space is splitting along lines of power on Earth. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/space-blocs-the-future-of-international-cooperation-in-space-is-splitting-along-lines-of-poweron-earth-180221 3 Article I of the OST. https://treaties.unoda.org/t/outer_space 1

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the Earth’s rotation, consistently remaining above the same location on Earth in a perceived ‘stationary’ position.4 This unique position is essential for many telecommunications, broadcasting, and weather satellites, which may be required to travel directly over a receiving station.5 GEO spaces are limited, with many actors competing for the c.a. 1,800 spots. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU), a specialized agency of the United Nations, oversees allocation, calling on nations to consider the importance of equitable access, “taking into account the special needs of the developing countries and the geographical situation of particular countries”.6 The current approach to orbital slots is primarily first-come first-served, which incentivizes established space actors to rapidly occupy GEO. This has the potential to create a lasting global imbalance, particularly as major spacefarers consider future resource extraction in space. The 1976 Bogotá Declaration saw several equatorial countries attempt to stake claim to sections of GEO located above their national territories.7 The claims made under the Declaration were backed by the argument that these segments of GEO are linked to these territories by Earth’s gravitation, and hence fall under their national sovereignty as natural resources.8 Though the Bogotá Declaration was unsuccessful, it is testimony to the concerns of some countries. As we move towards a

future of resource extraction in space, there is a greater need to consider equitable access to space. At the current rate, it is only the wealthiest and most technologically advanced countries that have first access to resources in space. This analysis identifies several areas for further research: ➢

Clarify the various interpretations of the principles contained in the OST, particularly relating to the nonappropriation principle, documenting a range of perspectives, including remote or minority communities.

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Assess the Moon Agreement as a potential foundation for an international regime to govern resource extraction in space, considering other treaties, new agreements, or governance structures.

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Examine the future role of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), identifying potential responsibilities and measures for equitable allocation of GEO positions.

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Understand ways to enhance dialogue via multilateral UN fora, such as the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS).

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Assess other regimes that uphold the principle of non-appropriation, such as UNCLOS, and assess their transferability to space.

Balleste, Roy (2020) Space Horizons: An Era of Hope in the Geostationary Orbit. Journal of Environmental Law and Litigation 35(165), 165-192. https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/25373/JELL35_Balleste.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. 5 Agama, Ferdinand Onwe (2017) Effects of the Bogota Declaration on the Legal Status of Geostationary orbit in international Space Law. NAUJILI 8(1). https://www.ajol.info/index.php/naujilj/article/view/156705 6 ITU (2022) ITU Radio Regulatory Framework for Space Services. Accessible: https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/space/snl/Documents/ITUSpace_reg.pdf 7 Giacomin, Nicolas (2019) The Bogota Declaration and Space Law. Space Legal Issues. https://www.spacelegalissues.com/the-bogotadeclaration-and-space-law/ 8 Agama (2017).

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Case study summary Brazil Brazil’s Alcântara Launch Center is 300 kilometers closer to the equator than any other active launch site in the world. This geographical location has the potential to rival French Guiana, supporting Brazil’s space sector and boosting the wider economy. There have been a number of successful launches, although Brazil’s launch capabilities are underused, with most Brazilian payloads taking off from Chinese or Russian launch sites. A fatal accident on the Alcântara launch site in 2003 killed 21 people, including many essential technicians. The government is seeking out international investment and collaboration with US-based private companies to boost the space industry and economy. A 2019 agreement with the United States may increase growth of the Brazilian space sector.

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia has been active in space for nearly half a century, investing its considerable wealth into regional initiatives including Arabsat. The first Saudi Arabian astronaut, Prince Sultan bin Salman, travelled into space in 1985. The Saudi satellite program has developed several satellites since 1998, with the start of commercial activities in 2004. While the country does not yet have launch capabilities, ambitious plans are underway to develop low-cost satellite launch and manufacturing systems. Vision 2030, the governments strategic development plan, sets out goals regarding the creation of a high-tech industrial and research sector and reducing Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil exports. The region is engaged in a space race of its own, with Saudi Arabia competing against the UAE and their common rival, Iran.

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South Korea South Korea is a technologically advanced nation with a strong economy and flourishing space sector. Despite its diplomatic clout and good standing with key international partners, South Korea struggles with tense relations with its neighbors. The Korean Peninsula has long been an arena of conflict, which has colored most aspects of South Korea’s public policy, including the space sector. South Korea prioritizes space for military uses, such as early warning capabilities and surveillance and reconnaissance. South Korea relies on space-based systems to bolster its defense posture and enhance deterrence in the region. South Korea has satellite design, manufacture and launch capabilities, with ambitions to land on the moon in 2030, and develop the Korea Positioning System by 2035. However, the development and testing of rockets, as well as the reintroduction of solid-fuel launchers exacerbated tensions with North Korea.

South Africa South Africa is a space leader on the African continent, with a well-established space sector. The tracking station at Hartebeesthoek in the Southern Cape formed an essential part of the NASA Deep Space Network throughout the 1960s. Today, South Africa is a contributor to a number of international space projects, lending expertise and services on satellite imagery and radio astronomy. The South African national space program focuses on three priority areas: i) environmental resource management, ii) health, safety and security, and iii) innovation and economy. The view held by the government is that space-related initiatives will create financial opportunities and facilitate social development. The Square Kilometer Array (SKA) is expected to deliver significant benefits to the country and the wider region. The internationallyfunded SKA project hopes to attract around $2.3bn of investment, create thousands of jobs and inspire the next generation of space engineers.

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NEW SPACEFARERS

he international space community can greatly benefit from becoming more equitable and inclusive. More space players could mean a greater number of unique geographic access points to launch payloads into orbit. Brazil’s Alcântara launch center, for example, holds considerable potential as the closest active site to the Equator, which could promise lower launch costs and fuel requirements.9 Novel upstream and downstream market opportunities could emerge, as well as innovation and new perspectives. A proliferation of space actors and more demand for upstream and downstream

Rationales for space program establishment:10 ➢

Economic: Focused on generating economic growth (GDP).

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Socioeconomic: Prioritizing the improvement of national welfare, using space data and applications to improve governance and enhance sectors e.g., agriculture, environment.

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Coordination: Integrating activities across national academic, commercial, and government space sectors.

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Centralization: Combining dispersed government space sector activities and actors into one agency.

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Geopolitical: Enhancing national security, facilitating participation in the international space community, building status as a spacefaring country.

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Regulatory: Managing the space sector by establishing a regulatory framework, complying with international law. 11

products/services could drive economies of scale, while potentially enhancing efficiency and competition in global supply chains. Developing economies stand to benefit from access to space, boosting employment and workforce training and diversification. An inclusive space domain is also conducive to peace and geopolitical stability, generating opportunities to develop new relationships or strengthen existing relationships between countries. There are risks as more actors enter space. An increasingly congested orbital environment is likely to lead to higher risks of collisions and damage to active satellites. Growing global dependencies on space for critical infrastructure could have larger impacts in the event of accidents or conflict in space. Some actors may perceive a lower barrier to conflict in the space domain, where there are fewer human costs compared to war on Earth. Space dependence is becoming a source of insecurity, considering, for example, that the United States lacks a comprehensive terrestrial backup for GPS, which Russia and China possess.12 The proliferation of anti-satellite (ASAT) technologies capable of disabling spacebased systems poses a significant risk. On 15 November 2021, Russia conducted an ASAT test on one of its old satellites, generating over 1,500 pieces of orbital debris, causing concern among the international community.

Milani, Livia Peres (2019) Brazil’s Space Program: Finally Taking Off? Wilson Center. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/brazilsspace-program-finally-taking 10 Knittel Kommel, R., Peter, A. Puig-Hall, M., Riesbeck, L. (2020) Exploring Insights from Emerging Space agencies. Accessible: https://aerospace.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020_GWU_ExploringInsights_FINAL_2nd-Edits-101920-compressed.pdf 11 Ibid. 12 Yamamoto, Ryan and Molly McCrea (2022) Using Cyber and Space Warfare, Russia Aggression May Soon Extend Far Beyond Ukraine. CBS. 25 February 2022. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/ukraine-russia-war-cyberattacks-space-warfare/ 9

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RECOMMENDATIONS

his report provides recommendations for policymakers in countries seeking access to space. The findings are compiled through literature review and consultation with industry leaders, academics, and policy experts in interviews. In addition, the case study analysis of four emerging spacefaring countries (Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, South Africa) in this report provides further insight and good practices. Though there is no singular blueprint for establishing a thriving space sector, several key themes emerged throughout the research for this objective: Establish a clear national space policy/strategy Ensure steady space funding Invest in human capital Specialize in niche technology areas Balance public/commercial space activities Foster international collaboration Engage with space law and governance Countries should produce formal space policy/strategy documents and funding commitments, making these publicly accessible wherever possible. Linking space to other national goals and priorities can help ensure stable funding.

The South African national space program focuses on three priority areas: i) environmental resource management, ii) health, safety and security, and iii) innovation and economy.13 Investing in education is essential towards developing high-tech and niche capabilities that appeal to international markets. In Saudi Arabia, the government invested in e-learning to help students overcome socioeconomic barriers. In 2011 the government opened the Saudi Electronic University (SEU), an online university offering science and technology programs.14 Countries may find new ways to utilize existing technology, as services that can be exported. Existing remote sensing systems gather an array of data that could be used for new applications to solve a range of problems, from agriculture to tracking wildlife poaching. Start-ups and university spin-off companies are crucial towards maintaining a health space industry ecosystem. Such innovation requires small grant opportunities and seed funding initiatives, as well as cutting back bureaucratic barriers to founding small businesses. Countries may formalize international relationships by issuing joint declarations or statements, or by signing agreements to cooperate on space programs or share data.15 Signing the relevant treaties signals that countries are committed to peaceful exploration and the rule of law in space. It is important that emerging players advocate for good space behaviors and ensure that their interests are taken into account.

Feldscher, Jacqueline (2019) South Africa leveraging space to solve problems on Earth. Politico. politico.com/news/2019/11/01/southafrica-space-063031 14 Almalki, Faris & Marios Angelidis (2016) Considering near space platforms to close the coverage gap in wireless communications: The case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7821614 15 Secure World Foundation (2017) Handbook for New Actors in Space. Ed. Christopher Johnson. https://swfound.org/handbook/

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South Africa from the International Space Station (Adapted) Credit: NASA EQUITABLE ACCESS TO SPACE

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1. Introduction ‘congested, contested and competitive’.17 The space environment has over 27,000 catalogued pieces of debris in orbit, with many smaller particles that are difficult to track.18 Space is becoming a difficult operational domain to navigate. Moreover, geopolitical rivalries and inequalities on Earth risk being played out in the space domain in the quest for limited orbital slots and space resources. Emerging spacefaring nations and developing countries are entering a more challenging arena, in which the biggest players make the rules.

rom enabling internet connectivity, to observing weather patterns on Earth, space is integral to critical infrastructure, communications, navigation, and many aspects of day-to-day life. More countries are looking to space to facilitate economic development, for instance, Earth monitoring capabilities to assess climatic factors, locate resources, prevent natural disasters, and improve agriculture. In the future, spacefaring countries may also seek access to precious metals or fuel sources in space to boost their economies, industry and scientific research. Space holds significant opportunities to drive economic and social development, while building up scientific expertise and international prestige.

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST) sets forth that the exploration and use of outer space is “for the benefit and in the interests of all countries”.19 However, the current approach to orbital slots is first-come firstserved. This, combined with the rapid rate of launches in major spacefaring countries, risks leaving other countries behind. At the current rate, it is only the wealthiest and most technologically advanced countries that have first access to resources in space.

An expanding private sector is seeking the benefits of space access, marking a shift away from the top-down approach of “old space” led by the governments of major spacefaring countries, such as the United States and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War.16 Emerging private companies present new opportunities for technology development and space exploration, boosting innovation. The development of reusable rockets, for example, marks a significant turning point in space exploration. The commercialization of space technologies has driven down costs, increasing the number of new entrants to space.

Promoting equitable access to space is important to ensure peace and security. Space newcomers are also significant contributors to the international spacefaring community, offering new ideas and perspectives to overcome the many challenges in the domain. It is essential that we do not replicate in space the inequities on Earth, to ensure a peaceful province of humankind for all.

However, with the entry of new players, the orbital environment is becoming increasingly

Wrench, John. (2019) Non-Appropriation, No Problem: The Outer Space Treaty Is Ready for Asteroid Mining. Case Western Reserve Journal of International Law 51(1), 437-462. https://scholarlycommons.law.case.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2546&context=jil 17 Eberhardt, Jeffrey (2019) Outer Space Increasingly ‘Congested, Contested, and Competitive’, United Nations, 25 October 2019. https://www.un.org/press/en/2013/gadis3487.doc.htm 18 NASA (2021) Space Debris and Human Spacecraft. https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html 19 Article I of the OST. https://treaties.unoda.org/t/outer_space

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Objectives & study scope REPORT STRUCTURE

his report seeks to identify the challenges relating to equitable space access and ways to overcome these, towards providing practicable policy recommendations for countries seeking a greater presence in space. The underlying research is part of wider aims to foster the principle of space as the “province of humankind”. This study focuses on a series of research objectives (see box below).

Research Objectives The overarching research objectives of this study are to: 6. Map the international legal framework in space regarding access to Geostationary orbital (GEO) slots. 7. Analyze the key space priorities, capabilities, partnerships, and challenges facing major emerging spacefaring countries. 8. Gauge the potential economic, geostrategic and wider societal benefits of space programs in developing countries. 9. Identify risks and challenges of more actors in space, as well as key enablers and obstacles to inclusive and peaceful outcomes in the space domain. 10. Determine good practices and recommendations for developing countries seeking a greater presence in space.

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These research objectives aim to provide an overview of the topic of equitable access to space and emerging spacefaring countries. This report follows the following structure: Chapter Two of this report investigates the international legal framework in space, analyzing the founding treaties and principles in space law, as well as identifying some of the lacunae and points of contention relating to access to geostationary orbital slots. It is important to understand existing international frameworks and determine areas in need of further research input. This chapter offers an overview of legal analysis in the contemporary literature to assist future research on equitable access to space. A separate, forthcoming paper provides indepth analysis of international law and future resource exploitation in space. Chapter Three provides case study analysis of four emerging spacefaring countries (Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea). Considering the unique strengths, priorities and challenges of these countries is important to understand the evolving space domain. This case study analysis is also employed towards the identification of good practices. Chapter Four identifies the underlying rationales for space agency foundation in countries. This chapter also generates an understanding of the potential economic, scientific, geostrategic and wider societal benefits new space actors bring to the established spacefaring community, while noting associated risks or threats.

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Chapter Five identifies recommendations and good practices for countries seeking access to space, in terms of attracting, developing and retaining space talent, building sustainable space industries, and establishing and meeting space priorities. The below figure illustrates the structure of this report.

Figure 1: Report Structure Diagram

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4 DEFINITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS This study distinguishes between the terms “emerging spacefaring nations” and “new spacefarers”. The definition of an "emerging spacefaring nation", as set out by the European Space Policy Institute describes "a country that is increasing its effort in the space domain and which is in the process of establishing broader autonomous capacities to access, operate in space, and benefit from a variety of space activities."20 This understanding emphasizes the development of sovereign capabilities, particularly countries with their own satellite manufacturing or launch facilities. The case study analysis of this report (Chapter Three) examines emerging spacefaring countries (Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and South Africa) to identify key priorities, challenges and good practices. The term “new spacefarers” is used in this report to refer to countries with budding space sectors and whose space programs are reliant on international collaboration or foreign investment. These countries may not currently have the capacity for sovereign capabilities, but they are participating in space. The recommendations provided in

Chapter Five of this report are geared towards policymakers from these countries. This report uses the principle of “equitable access” to space, a concept introduced by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) to ensure that all countries have the opportunity to access geosynchronous orbit.21 “Equitable access” indicates a general principle of promoting and prioritizing access among all nations, though such an outcome cannot be concretely quantified. There is room for further research to identify what precisely a model of “equitable access” to space could look like. This study employs a broad understanding of equitable access, beyond simply access to GEO and associated frequencies. Looking to the rapid proliferation of megaconstellations in low Earth orbit (LEO), as well as future uses of space, which may include resource extraction, it becomes clear that there is a growing need to expand the concept of “equitable access”. This report applies this principle beyond its initial intended uses, towards fostering the concept of space as the province for all humankind.

ESPI (2021) Emerging Spacefaring Nations. Report 79. https://espi.or.at/publications/espi-public-reports/category/2-public-espireports#:~:text=Notable%20examples%20of%20emerging%20spacefaring,in%20the%20Asia%2DPacific%20region. 21 Cappella, Matteo (2019) The Principle of Equitable Access in the Age of Mega-Constellations, Legal Aspects Around Satellite Constellations, Studies in Space Policy, Volume 19. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019lasc.book...11C/abstract#:~:text=The%20principle%20of%20equitable%20access%20was% 20introduced%20by%20the%20International,satellites%2C%20without%20creating%20or%20receiving

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Methodology This study employed a range of qualitative research methodologies for Objectives 1-5. The methodological approaches for each research objective are outlined below.

Literature Reviews

Research objectives 1 and 2 of this study rely on literature reviews. Objective 1 examines the legal framework and access to space. Objective 2 presents four case studies of emerging spacefaring countries.

Inclusion criteria ➢

➢ ➢

Materials from government, academia, private sector, gray literature (conference papers, event transcripts, white papers etc.). English language documents. Literature after 2018.

OBJ. 1: INTERNATIONAL LEGAL FRAMEWORK

he literature review for Objective 1 was based on a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) approach. In contrast to Systematic Literature Reviews, REAs make concessions regarding the breadth, depth and comprehensiveness of the search to yield ‘rapid’ results.22 An REA was deemed the most appropriate methodology for this portion of the study, as it offers a structured and robust approach within the significant time constraints of the study. Nonetheless, the review is not exhaustive and does not include all papers on the topic of international space law and access to space. This review reports on the findings and recommendations of reviewed sources, without providing an indepth assessment of their effectiveness.

These are therefore identified as key areas in need of further research input. The review was conducted via targeted keyword searches on Google and Google Scholar. A “snowball” approach built from initial sources identified further relevant literature. The above box identifies the inclusion and exclusion criteria implemented for this study. Additionally, special attention was paid to sources from minority and non-Western authors, as it is the aim of this study to amplify these voices and adopt an inclusive perspective on the international space domain. A snowballing approach was implemented, in which further sources were identified to inform the research.

What is a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA). CEBMA (2022) https://cebma.org/faq/what-is-an-rea/

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OBJ. 2: CASE STUDY ANALYSIS

his study examines four emerging spacefaring nations through case study analysis. Countries were selected via two processes: the long-listing stage and the shortlisting stage. In the long-listing stage, a selection of countries was identified on the basis of the definition of an "emerging spacefaring nation" set out by the European Space Policy Institute. Here, the emphasis lies on sovereign space capabilities. Chapter Five utilizes these case studies to highlight good practices to help inform developing countries seeking a greater role in space.

The four countries selected include: ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢

Brazil Saudi Arabia South Korea South Africa

Another aim of the case study analysis is to present good practices for developing countries in completion of Objective 5 of this study. Though there are many more countries that could offer unique insights, this study is limited to these four, due to the desk-based nature of the research, as well as language constraints and the limited timespan of the study.

In the subsequent short-listing phase, a brief survey issued to senior II stakeholders offered the opportunity for down selection. The final shortlist of countries was established on the basis of the scope of available – and reliable – literature, as well as with the aim to provide an even geographic spread, offering continental representation across South America, Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

Follow-up studies may seek to expand on this report by including wider geographic representation, as well as tailored, countryspecific recommendations, or the inclusion of scenarios to illustrate the potential impacts of equitable access to space.

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Expert Workshops Research objectives 3 and 4 of this study were informed with help of expert workshops. Objective 3 analyses the potential economic, geostrategic and wider societal benefits of space programs in developing countries. Objective 4 identifies the risks of more space actors, as well as key enablers and obstacles to inclusive and peaceful outcomes in the space domain.

The exercise involved a virtual SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis activity, in which participants were asked to consider: ➢ ➢

OBJ. 3 & 4: NEW SPACEFARERS

➢

he workshop component of the study centered on understanding some of the potential economic, scientific, geostrategic, and wider societal benefits new space actors bring to the established spacefaring community, while noting associated risks or threats. In addition, participants considered some of the key enablers and obstacles to achieving peaceful and equitable outcomes and establishing a thriving international space community.

Benefits/opportunities of more actors entering the space domain Risks/threats presented by more actors in space Enablers to achieving peaceful and equitable outcomes Obstacles to achieving these goals

Mural software was used to facilitate virtual sessions. Participants structured their responses into themes according to the PESTLE-M categorization (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental and Military). Participants discussed their findings in group discussions. The findings of these three workshops were compiled and circulated in the form of a workshop note.

Three 1.5-hour workshops were held on the 2nd, 4th and 8th of March. These sessions brought together participants from across ASU, industry and academia.

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Interviews Expert interviews were conducted to inform the research for this study. Objective 5 determines good practices and recommendations for new countries entering space.

All interviews were conducted online via Zoom. Experts were sent interview protocols ahead of time, which framed questions according to the following categories: • • • •

OBJ. 5 RECOMMENDATIONS

total of 13 experts were consulted over the course of this study. Interview participants came from academia, industry and policy research. Participants were selected on the basis of their expertise, ranging from economic development to defense and technology. All participants had a good understanding of the space domain and future trends.

Space technologies/capabilities Space industry/economy Socioeconomic factors Space policy/governance

Questions were tailored according to participants’ expertise and framed to build on the recommendations in the reviewed literature. The key themes were distilled into seven key recommendations, which were further refined through targeted literature review.

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Deep Space Communications Antenna in Spain EQUITABLE TO SPACE (Adapted) Credit: NalopezACCESS 21

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2. International Legal Framework

pace is essential for critical infrastructure, national security, transport, trade and logistics, not least the everyday activities of citizens, such as access to Global Positioning System (GPS), television and the internet. Access to space has the potential to boost countries’ economic development, in climate monitoring, resource location and mitigating natural disasters. Space programs may bring wider socioeconomic benefits in the form of workforce upskilling, industry growth, scientific research and international status. The existing international legal framework comes from several sources, including the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS – see box on right) and five UN space treaties, including the Outer Space Treaty (OST – see section below). The following frameworks were established in the aftermath of the Cold War and have not adapted to the rapidly evolving space domain. The costs of space programs have decreased due to rapid commercialization and miniaturization. Formerly the size of a garbage truck, sophisticated satellites are

now often smaller than a microwave.23 Today’s systems are cheaper to design, manufacture and launch. For example, the SpaceX Falcon offers competitive launch costs at less than $1,300 per pound of payload.24 The cost of NASA launch vehicles from a decade ago cost an average of $30,000 per pound of payload.25 A growing number of actors are able to assemble modular CubeSats for launch by private companies. However, significant barriers to space access remain to developing countries, which combined with rapid commercial

UN Space Governance The United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) was founded in 1958 to establish an international governance framework for space activities. Since 1962, UNOOSA has maintained a registry of objects launched into space26. The UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) was formed in 1959 to “govern the exploration and use of space for the benefit of all humanity”.27 COPUOS is responsible for drafting and implementing the five UN space treaties (see section below).

Davenport, Christian. (2021) The revolution in satellite technology means there are swarms of spacecraft no bigger than a loaf of bread in orbit. The Washington Post, 6 April 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/06/small-satellites-growthspace/ 24 Sheetz, Michael (2022) SpaceX raises prices for rocket launches and Starlink satellite internet as inflation hits raw materials. CNBC. 23 March 2022. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/spacex-raises-prices-for-launches-and-starlink-due-to-inflation. 25 Ibid. 26 UNOOSA (2022) United Nations Register of Objects Launched into Outer Space. https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/spaceobjectregister/index.html 27 UNOOSA (2022) Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/copuos/current.html

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growth in major spacefaring countries could generate long-term imbalance in the space community. The orbital environment is becoming increasingly ‘congested, contested and competitive’.28 Orbital debris already poses a threat to space activity, with the Kessler Syndrome predicting that pieces of debris could multiply far more rapidly than they can be removed from orbit.29 It is in this risky environment that a growing number of actors seek access to Geostationary Orbit (GEO), while considering the future potential for space resource extraction. Geopolitical competition and rivalry could shape the future of space, amplified by the dual-use nature of many space technologies, which can be used for both military and civilian purposes. There is a pressing need for international rules and norms to prevent harmful behavior and ensure that space remains accessible for exploration by all humankind.

This chapter analyses the international legal framework in relation to equitable access to GEO. The overarching goal is to map the key principles and treaties, as well as some of the lacunae in international law, to assist future research overcome the practical challenges to equitable access to space. It is also the general aim of this report to inform industry, policymakers and government decision makers in countries seeking greater access to space. The following sections present the key principles in international law regarding access to GEO, the gaps within the current international legal framework for space, as well as the key sources of tension among major spacefaring countries and other nations. The final section of this chapter offers some of the areas for further research outlined in the analyzed literature. This study also identified issues relating to international law and future resource extraction in space, which will be published in a separate, forthcoming document.

Eberhardt (2019). Retter, Lucia, James Black & Theodora Ogden. (2022) Realising the Ambitions of the UK’s Defence Space Strategy: Factors Shaping Implementation to 2030. RAND Europe. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1186-1.html 29

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Geostationary Orbit

atellites in GEO travel on an equatorial path in the same direction of the Earth’s rotation, consistently remaining above the same location on Earth in a perceived ‘stationary’ position.30 This unique position is essential for many telecommunications, broadcasting, and weather satellites, which are often required to travel in orbit directly over a receiving station.31 Moreover, satellites in GEO can access around onethird of the Earth’s surface area, allowing very high radio frequencies emitted from one location on Earth to be received by a satellite and transmitted to another location on Earth.32 There are other types of orbits, (see box on right) but the focus of this report remains on GEO. Half of all satellites are positioned in GEO.33 These orbital slots are in high demand for a variety of purposes set out by the Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), not limited to: communications, meteorology, Earth resources and environment, navigation and aircraft control, testing of new systems, astronomy, and data relay.34 Positions in GEO are highly sought, but allocation is “first come, first served”.35 Under the current system relating to orbital slots, established spacefarers are

Types of orbits Low Earth Orbit (LEO): The orbit closest to Earth at 500 km – 1,200 km above the surface.36 LEO is utilized for communication and remote sensing. Medium Earth Orbit (MEO): A range of orbits up to an altitude of 20,000 km. These locations are often used for navigation, including GPS. Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO): Positions matching the Earth’s rotation with a consistent longitudinal location over Earth. Geostationary Orbit (GEO): A type of GSO with a constant position over the Equator and 36,000 km above the surface. Both GSO and GEO are used for telecommunications and Earth observation. Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO): A highly elliptical orbit with one end nearer the Earth and the other end further from the surface. These positions are often used for hybrid systems. Polar Orbit: This orbit is within 30 degrees of the North and South poles, which is useful for weather tracking and Earth monitoring.37

Balleste, Roy (2020) Space Horizons: An Era of Hope in the Geostationary Orbit. Journal of Environmental Law and Litigation 35(165), 165-192. https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/25373/JELL35_Balleste.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. 31 Agama, Ferdinand Onwe (2017) Effects of the Bogota Declaration on the Legal Status of Geostationary orbit in international Space Law. NAUJILI 8(1). https://www.ajol.info/index.php/naujilj/article/view/156705 32 Balleste (2020). 33 Ibid. 34 Agama (2017). 35 Giacomin, Nicolas (2019) The Bogota Declaration and Space Law. Space Legal Issues. https://www.spacelegalissues.com/thebogota-declaration-and-space-law/ 36 Via Satellite (2022) GEO, MEO and LEO: How Orbital altitude impacts network performance in satellite data services. https://www.satellitetoday.com/content-collection/ses-hub-geo-meo-and-leo/ 37 Space Foundation (2022) Space Briefing Book: Types of Orbit. https://www.spacefoundation.org/space_brief/types-of-orbits/

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incentivized to fill up the limited (c.a. 1,800) GEO spaces. However, many developing countries and non-spacefaring countries lack the resources to take advantage of this system in the near term.38 The economic incentives of accessing GEO are a significant driver of the current space race among private and government actors.39 More private companies are performing space activities that have historically resided within the exclusive domain of states. This is challenging the traditional understanding of the prohibition on territorial sovereignty in outer space.40 There is a growing need for clarification in international law, particularly considering several countries’ goals for future resource extraction in space.

satellite companies. The oft-cited case of Tonga in 1991 saw the national satellite company offer six of these spaces to companies in other countries.42

In its preamble to the Radio Regulations, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), a specialized agency of the United Nations, designated GEO and associated radio frequencies as “limited natural resources”, urging Member States to use them “rationally, efficiently and economically, in conformity with the provisions of the Radio Regulations” to allow equitable access and “taking into account the special needs of the developing countries and the geographical situation of particular countries”.41 The ITU has attempted to address inequities by granting frequencies to smaller nations, but efforts have remained limited, or even resulted in unintended outcomes as countries lease and rent granted orbital slots to foreign

This chapter of the report focuses on access to GEO. Though there are other orbital positions for satellites to choose from, GSO and GEO are particularly important for telecommunications and Earth observation, and these slots are highly limited. The majority of the reviewed literature focuses on GEO, as the rapid depletion of spaces has generated significant legal debate. This includes discussion of the Bogotá Declaration of 1976, which saw several Equatorial countries seek sovereignty over slots in GEO above their territories (see section below).

When the major international treaties on outer space were drafted, parties did not anticipate the extent of private enterprise in space today.43 The commercialization of satellite manufacture and the falling costs of launch and operation is enabling a growing number of countries to enter space. However, the major space nations, including the United States, Russia and China, have a considerable advantage over emerging spacefaring countries, developing economies and those with no space infrastructure.

Howell, Elizabeth (2015) What is a Geosynchronous Orbit? Space.com https://www.space.com/29222-geosynchronous-orbit.html Ferreira-Snyman, A (2021) Challenges to the Prohibition on Sovereignty in Outer Space - A New Frontier for Space Governance. Potchefstroom Electronic Law Journal 24(1) http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1727-37812021000100008 40 Ibid. 41 ITU (2022) ITU Radio Regulatory Framework for Space Services. Accessible: https://www.itu.int/en/ITUR/space/snl/Documents/ITU-Space_reg.pdf 42 Thornburg (2018); Chaturvedi, Shivangi (2021) Rights in Orbital Slots: Analysis of Tonga Incident. International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 10(1), 1-10. 43 Ferreira-Snyman (2021). 39

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International Space Law

uter space is governed by an international legal framework consisting of five core agreements: The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, the 1968 Rescue and Return Agreement, the 1972 Liability Convention, the 1975 Registration Convention, and the 1979 Moon Agreement.44 Of these, the Outer Space Treaty (OST) is often considered the most important, establishing the fundamental rules governing space activity.45 Table 1: International Legal Framework46 Treaty

Date

Total Parties

Total Signatories

Outer Space Treaty

1967

110

Rescue and Return Agreement

1968

Liability Convention

1972

Registration Convention

1975

Moon Agreement

1979

For decades, states have considered outer space as res communis omnium, open to all states and not subject to national appropriation.47 Space is “owned by none, no one can colonize it, but everyone can fish in it”.48 Articles I and II of the OST enshrine this fundamental principle. Article I of the OST states that outer space should free for exploration and use by all countries, with free access to all areas of celestial bodies.49 This article clearly establishes space as the “province of all humankind”, in which emerging actors have the same rights to explore and use outer space for peaceful purposes as more established space nations.50 Article I of the OST provides that outer space is explored and used “for the benefit and in the interest of all countries”. It remains unclear whether Article I’s understanding of benefit-sharing refers to monetary compensation, or the transferal and sharing of technological knowledge, or if it simply refers to the non-harmful use of outer space.51 The phrase "province of humankind" in Article I as a principle does not expressly prevent individual access, and has been suggested to mean responsibility, control or management over an area, rather than appropriation and property. 52 This has

Pershing (2019). Pershing (2019). McClintock, Bruce, Katie Feistel, Douglas C. Ligor, Kathryn O’Connor (2021) Responsible Space Behavior for the New Space Era: Preserving the Province of Humanity. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA887-2.html 47 Rathore, Ekta & Gupta, Biswanath (2020) Emergence of Jus Cogens Principles in Outer Space Law The International Journal of Space Politics & Policy 18(1), 1-21. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14777622.2020.1723353 48 Frans von der Dunk, cited Rathore & Gupta (2020). 49 United Nations (1967) Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies. RES 2222 (XXI). https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/introouterspacetreaty.html 50 Secure World Foundation (2017) Handbook for New Actors in Space. Ed. Christopher Johnson.https://swfound.org/handbook/ 51 Ferreira-Snyman (2021). 52 Ferreira-Snyman (2021); Rathore & Gupta (2020). 45 46

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generated debate about future resource extraction in space, and whether such activities would be permissible. Article II of the OST expressly proscribes state sovereignty claims in outer space, limiting jurisdiction and ownership rights to launched and registered systems.53 Article II specifies that the “Moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means”.54 This section lists both statements (claims) and physical acts (using or occupying).55 One interpretation – largely held by major spacefaring countries – views mining activities as lawful appropriation, as long as there is not the intent to establish and maintain exclusive sovereign rights.56 The alternative interpretation – as understood by several developing countries – determines that Article II prohibits appropriation by “use”, potentially viewing the occupation of geostationary positions as unlawful appropriation.57 It is important to consider that "use" generally suggests a degree of appropriation, by preventing other nations from accessing a resource.58 There is a need to diffuse tensions between these interpretations on the “use” of GEO or potential future resource extraction.59 This requires detailed analysis of the various perspectives on space and non-

appropriation, including the views of remote and minority communities. It is worth noting that the similarities and distinctions between the OST and the Moon Agreement (MA), which promotes many of the same principles but did not garner support among the spacefaring community. The MA (see box below) affirms the principle of non-appropriation, but also advocates for the establishment of an international regime to govern the exploitation of resources in space. The principle of space as a “province of humankind” contained in Article II of the OST is distinct in language from the “principle of Common Heritage of Mankind” (CHM), which is present in the MA.

The Moon Agreement The MA entered into force in 1984, building on many of the provisions in the OST. The Agreement encourages the creation of an international regime to govern space resource exploitation. However, the MA was never ratified by the major spacefaring nations, which means that it is widely considered invalid. While the MA is not binding on the largest players, there are enough countries ratifying, signing and acceding to the MA for some to perceive a “shadow of customary law” that could potentially challenge future behaviors.60

Secure World Foundation (2017). United Nations (1967). 55 Secure World Foundation (2017). 56 Secure World Foundation (2017); Giacomin (2019). 57 Secure World Foundation (2017); Durrani, Haris (2018) The Bogotá Declaration: A Case Study on Sovereignty, Empire, and the Commons in Outer Space. Columbia Journal of Transnational Law. https://www.academia.edu/35362196/The_Bogot%C3%A1_Declaration_A_Case_Study_on_Sovereignty_Empire_and_the_Commo ns_in_Outer_Space 58 Ferreira-Snyman (2021); Zannoni, Diego (2020) The Dilemma Between the Freedom to Use and the Proscription against Appropriating Outer Space and Celestial Bodies. Chinese Journal of International Law 19(2), 329-358. https://academic.oup.com/chinesejil/article/19/2/329/5861706?login=true 59 Zannoni (2020). 60 Listner, Michael (2011) The Moon Treaty: failed international law or waiting in the shadows? The Space Review. 24 October 2011. https://www.thespacereview.com/article/1954/1 54

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“

Some developing countries may interpret CHM as a form of “pooled sovereignty”.61 Such an understanding implies that spacefaring countries require the permission of all other countries to access common resources, including positions in GEO.62

Space is “owned by none, no one can colonize it, but everyone can fish in it

”

Article III of the OST integrates space law into international law, which means that other sources of public international law, such as the UN Charter, affect the law of outer space.63 General principles of law dictate that activities not explicitly prohibited are otherwise permitted, which generates a wide scope of state freedom in outer space, beyond explicitly codified legal prohibitions.64 This poses significant challenges to equitable access to space. For instance, the OST’s principle of nonappropriation does not impose limits on the duration or number of satellites that may be placed in GEO.65 This system may be considered to allow for de facto appropriation by major spacefaring countries who are first to orbit and certain radio frequencies.

With an average lifespan of a 15-20 years, geostationary satellites are effectively preventing use of that slot by other actors for at least that period.66 Moreover, operators of geostationary satellites are only required to refile with the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) to “renew” slots and replace old satellites, which essentially allows operators to retain their orbital slots indefinitely.67 First-comers have the right to maintain their position in GEO and associated usage of radio frequencies without interference from newcomers.68 Should disputes emerge between a newcomer and an existing user registered with the International Frequency Registration Board, preference is given to the latter in a system of “first come, first served”. 69 The onus remains on newcomers to design their space systems with consideration for the trajectory and frequencies of established satellites.70 As the wider orbital environment becomes more congested, this could place higher barriers to space entry, potentially increasing satellite design and operation costs.

Rathore & Gupta (2020); Giacomin (2019); Ferreira-Snyman (2021). Ferreira-Snyman (2021). 63 Secure World Foundation (2017). 64 Secure World Foundation (2017). 65 Giacomin (2019). 66 Thornburg, Matthew (2018) Are the Non-appropriation Principle and the Current Regulatory Regime Governing Geostationary Orbit Equitable for All of Earth’s States? MJIL (40). http://www.mjilonline.org/are-the-non-appropriation-principle-and-the-currentregulatory-regime-governing-geostationary-orbit-equitable-for-all-of-earths-states/ 67 Thornburg (2018). 68 Giacomin (2019). 69 Giacomin (2019). 70 Giacomin (2019). 62

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New spacefarers

n increasing number of countries are looking to satellites to facilitate development, for example to monitor the climate, locate resources, prevent natural disasters, and improve agriculture.71 However, there is a significant head start for established spacefaring nations which already possess the technological and economic means to exploit positions in Geostationary Orbit (GEO). Moreover, there are differing interpretations of the OST, which may favor the interests of major space powers over other actors.72 The Outer Space Treaty was drafted in the context of the era and space exploration at the time, reflecting tensions between the United States and former Soviet Union.73 Its key objectives were to prevent state appropriation and war in space, particularly nuclear conflict.74 It is therefore intended to apply broadly and does not account for rapid commercialization and the diversity of actors and space activities in new space.75 It is also worth considering that the Treaty was dated around the same time that many former colonies sought independence from their former colonizers.76 It therefore seems even more important to consider the

perspectives of all nations and prevent inequity in space.77 The 1976 Bogotá Declaration saw several equatorial countries attempt to stake claim to sections of GEO located above their national territories.78 Colombia, the Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Indonesia, Kenya, Uganda and The Democratic Republic of the Congo initially entered the agreement, with Brazil signing as an observer, and Gabon and Somalia joining later. 79 The claims made under the Declaration were backed by the argument that these segments of GEO are linked to these territories by Earth’s gravitation, and hence fall under their national sovereignty as natural resources.80 This understanding does not consider GEO part of outer space – particularly as the OST lacks a clear legal definition of outer space – but as a part of airspace above equatorial territories.81 The United Nations Outer Space Legal Subcommittee debated the Declaration in 1977, with several equatorial countries expressing that the OST did not account for their interests and that a rejection of their sovereignty claims could lead to neo-

Durrani (2018). Pershing (2019). 73 Pershing (2019); Wrench (2019); Brehm, Andrew (2015). Private Property in Outer Space: Establishing a Foundation for Future Exploration. 33 Wisconsin International Law Journal 353. https://repository.law.wisc.edu/s/uwlaw/item/77011 74 Pershing (2019); Wrench (2019); Brehm (2015). 75 Pershing (2019); Lim, Jonathan (2018) The Future of the Outer Space Treaty – Peace and Security in the 21st Century. Global Politics Review. Open Access Journal of International Studies 4(2), 72-112. https://www.globalpoliticsreview.com/publications/24649929_v04_i02.pdf#page=72 76 Durrani, Haris (2019) Is Spaceflight Colonialism? The Nation. 19 July 2019. https://www.thenation.com/article/world/apollo-spacelunar-rockets-colonialism/ 77 Thornburg (2018). 78 Giacomin (2019). 79 Giacomin (2019). 80 Agama (2017). 81 Agama (2017). 72

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colonialism of outer space.82 It was suggested that there is an need for a definition of outer space that takes into consideration the special position of equatorial countries.83 However, the claims of sovereignty were widely rejected by the established spacefaring community and have not altered the international legal status of GEO.84 Signatories have since reformulated their claims, invoking preferential rights instead of sovereignty, although these claims are still widely considered inconsistent with the principles of the OST.85 Some scholars suggest that the Declaration was simply an attempt to apply political pressure to spacefaring nations using GEO and prompt questions regarding equitable space access.86 Nonetheless, the Bogotá Declaration presents a unique case, raising questions about history, colonialism, exploitation, and equitable access to outer space.87 The issues raised in the Declaration are testimony to the wider concerns of non-spacefaring countries regarding the major powers’ uses of the domain.88

resource extraction. Generally, nations that benefit from space most favor the broad national interpretations of OST principles.90 Some countries, including the United States via the Artemis Accords, have implemented unilateral efforts to protect their national interests and enable the private exploitation of natural resources in outer space. Such actions are perceived by many to push the boundaries of the OST in anticipation of future technological capabilities and strategic interests.91 The fundamental principles of the OST remain valuable. If the Treaty were repealed or replaced by a free-for-all allocation of space property rights, this could result in rapid, chaotic and inequitable access to resources disfavoring developing countries in particular.92 Rather than scrapping what little legal framework there currently is for space, there is a need to build on the existing principles and adapt to the developing space domain.

The OST’s lack of definitions could become a greater problem, for example, without a clear legal boundary between airspace and outer space.89 The existing ambiguities and loopholes in the OST could permit opportunistic or harmful behaviors, particularly as we move to a future of space

Agama (2017). Agama (2017). 84 Agama (2017). 85 Giacomin (2019). 86 Agama (2017). 87 Durrani (2018). 88 Giacomin (2019). 89 Secure World Foundation (2017); Lim (2018). 90 Rathore & Gupta (2020). 91 Lim (2018); Rathore & Gupta (2020). 92 Pershing (2019). 83

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The way forward

s more actors seek to leverage their presence in space and pursue commercial interests there is a greater need to clarify the meanings and scope of the principles contained in the OST. The principles of non-appropriation, equitable access and peaceful use are as important as ever, but there needs to be international agreement to uphold these norms and the fundamental spirit of the OST.93 Some scholars argue that extreme measures are necessary, for example, denying all property rights in space, including ownership of samples collected or resources extracted. However, such measures could deny space exploration and research advances in key technology areas, ranging from medicine to crisis management. Furthermore, governments and commercial actors are unlikely to agree to restrictive measures.94 Instead, the literature generally suggests that the principles of international space law are upheld through a variety of policy frameworks designed to protect the interests of all humankind.95 There are several ways in which the legal framework could maintain the key OST principles. These are identified as areas in need of further research, summarized in the box on the right.

Areas for further research ➢ Clarify the various interpretations of the principles contained in the OST, particularly relating to the nonappropriation principle, documenting a range of perspectives, including remote or minority communities. ➢ Assess the Moon Agreement as a potential foundation for an international regime to govern resource extraction in space, considering other treaties, new agreements, or governance structures. ➢ Examine the future role of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), identifying potential responsibilities and measures for equitable allocation of GEO positions. ➢ Understand ways to enhance dialogue via multilateral UN fora, such as the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). ➢ Assess other regimes that uphold the principle of non-appropriation, such as UNCLOS, and assess their transferability to space. The Moon Agreement provides a useful foundation for governing space exploitation.96 The MA calls for the establishment of an international regime to govern resource exploitation as it becomes technologically feasible. However, the Agreement does not offer details about what such a regime should look like.

Pershing (2019). Ibid. 95 Balleste (2020). 96 Zannoni (2020). 94

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Nonetheless, this indeterminacy could be leveraged as a strength if the MA is to be a “diplomatic signpost” for emerging space actors.97 Though the MA lacks uptake among established spacefaring countries, some of the principles around resource exploitation could prove useful. This, combined with a sui generis (“unique”) approach to property rights could enable resource extraction in space by introducing "property-like rights" which do not imply ownership, but rather, "concessions, mining licenses, prospecting rights, and certain contractual rights" towards equitable access to space resources.98 Similarly, in achieving equitable access to GEO and radio frequency bands, many scholars suggest that the ITU provides an existing framework as an independent neutral organization overseeing allocation.99 There are some arguments for an ITU allocation system that prioritizes equatorial states in the case of clashing interests, in light of the Bogotá Declaration.100 There is a need for further research to envisage the future role of the ITU and how international

“

There is a need to clarify and tighten rules to avoid a tragedy of the commons

”

legal norms could be shaped, implemented and enforced. The United Nations is central to the implementation of any legal framework on the governance of space. It is important that an impartial institution interprets international law and holds states and private companies to account, to prevent the fragmentation of space governance, legal uncertainty and destructive behaviors in outer space.101 The UN is best suited, with COPUOS offering a multilateral forum for outer space issues – rather the creation of an entirely new international law-making body on space governance. 102 COPUOS was established by the General Assembly in 1959, to enhance cooperation and ensure peaceful uses of outer space. The decision-making processes of COPUOS are arguably slow, as programs initiate on the basis of consensus.103 Nonetheless, the UN is advancing programs through COPUOS, including Transparency and confidence-building measures (TCBMs) to enable the peaceful and sustainable use and exploitation of resources.104 The COPUOS Legal Subcommittee is setting into motion plans for a working group on the Exploration, Exploitation and Utilization of Space Resources.105 Channels such as these are important to promote equitable access to space and the

Ibid. Ferreira-Snyman (2021). Balleste (2020); Agama (2017); Jakhu, Ram & Karan Singh (2009) Space Security and Competition for Radio Frequencies and Geostationary Slot., Zeitschrift für Luft- und Weltraumrecht 58. 100 Balleste (2020); Jakhu & Singh (2009); Agama (2017). 101 Ferreira-Snyman (2021). 102 Ferreira-Snyman (2021). 103 Lim (2018). 104 Ibid. 105 UNOOSA (2021) The Establishment of a Working Group on Potential Legal Models for Activities in Exploration, Exploitation and Utilization of Space Resources. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Legal Subcommittee Sixtieth session. https://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2021/aac_105c_22021crp/aac_105c_22021crp_22_0_html/AC105_C2_2021_ CRP22E.pdf 98 99

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rule of law in space. Moreover, the United Nations is well placed to call out countries acting against the principles of the OST, moving away from unilateral interpretations of international space law and promoting universal principles. Looking to frameworks beyond the UN, the Space Sustainability Rating (SSR), developed by the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Space Technologies, offers a potential tool to encourage good behaviors in space. The SSR aims to provide scores for missions with regard to debris mitigation and alignment with international guidelines.106 Some scholars suggest adapting property regimes on Earth that uphold the nonappropriation principle, for example, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) or the Antarctica Treaty System (ATS). 107 UNCLOS, particularly through the International Seabed Authority on deep seabed mining, limits claims on resources, while permitting responsible resource extraction under the scrutiny of a regulator.108 The Antarctic Treaty System also exemplifies a governance structure that enables exploration and scientific research in areas beyond a country’s sovereign territory, while maintaining good diplomatic ties.109 However, the ATS bans mining, which limits applicability to future space resource extraction. Nonetheless, further study of governance models such as these could offer promise towards upholding the non-appropriation principle in space.

Beyond multilateral frameworks, there is potential for strong national leadership to encourage good behavior in the space domain. The largest spacefaring countries have geopolitical “baggage” and vested interests in space. There could nonetheless be a need for "honest brokers", who have the diplomatic acumen to mediate disagreements, ease relations and promote good behaviors. There are promising “stewards” on Earth, countries that may play a small role in space but demonstrate good governance in areas such as environmental protection and sustainability. Countries with such a positive track record include Singapore, which has a small presence in space, but could nonetheless be well-placed to lead the way and advocate for good behaviors in space.110 The rapidly evolving space domain is seeing an increase in actors seeking access to limited orbital slots. The risks are that established spacefaring countries have the technological and economic advantage, leaving other countries behind. The firstcome-first-served approach to orbital slots means that countries with the technological capabilities are incentivized to make full use of limited positions. To ensure that access to space is equitable, sustainable and peaceful, we need to build on existing principles in international law. Though the OST has not adapted to the rapidly evolving space domain, the founding principles remain as important as ever. There is a need to clarify and tighten rules to avoid a “tragedy of the commons” and to prevent the geopolitical rivalries and inequities on Earth from playing out in space.

106

World Economic Forum (2022) Space Sustainability Rating. https://www.weforum.org/projects/space-sustainability-rating Wrench (2019); Rathore & Gupta (2020). 108 Wrench (2019). 109 Salazar (2015). 110 This example was discussed in workshop group 2 (see Annex). 107

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Central Asia from the International Space Station EQUITABLE ACCESS TO SPACE (Adapted) Credit: NASA

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3. Case Study Analysis As more countries look to space, humanity will need to work together to overcome the many technological challenges and ensure peace. There is a pressing need to understand the various actors and their priorities. This chapter provides case studies of four emerging spacefaring countries: Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and South Africa. The case study profiles are standalone briefs of these four space sectors, with executive summaries to outline key features. This case study analysis presents the state of space industry, economy and scientific research, identifying key space strategies and priorities. Each case study presents unique strengths and challenges that shed light on some of the issues facing the emerging spacefaring community. Together, these case studies represent the broader landscape, illustrating space industry, economy and security concerns on four continents. Understanding these contexts facilitates a broader perspective towards fostering a more equitable and inclusive space domain.

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Brazil Key Points111 Funding: The space budget for 2022 is less than $32 million. Organizations: • Brazilian Space Agency (AEB) • Aerospace Technology and Science Department (DCTA) • National Institute of Space Research (INPE) Capabilities: • Alcântara launch site International partners: Russia, Europe, China, United States.

SUMMARY razil’s Alcântara Launch Center is only two degrees south of the Equator, 300 kilometers closer than any other active launch site in the world. With a legacy in space spanning from the 1960s, Brazil has its sights set on becoming a global space leader. However, Brazilian launch capabilities are underutilized, with most Brazilian payloads taking off from Chinese or Russian launch sites. A fatal accident on the Alcântara launch site in 2003 killed 21 people, including many essential technicians. This tragedy saw the death of many scientists and engineers and had an impact on the development of launch capabilities.112 There have been several successful launches from Alcântara in recent years, including projects in collaboration with the German Space Agency and Italy-based Thales. Today, the Brazilian economy

grapples with a considerable downturn in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government is seeking out international investment and collaboration with US-based private companies to boost the space industry and economy. However, expansion plans for Alcântara could have an impact on the regional environment and local communities. Brazil has considerable space ambitions for the future, and geographically, its launch site holds a lot of promise. However, it remains to be seen how these goals can be met within constrained government budgets and amid challenges to training and retaining talent.

111

Map: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Brazil_on_the_globe_(South_America_centered).svg Melo, Michele & Paulo Vasconcellos (2020) High hopes for Brazil’s space ambitions. Astronautics 3(25). https://room.eu.com/article/high-hopes-for-brazils-space-ambitions 112

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NATIONAL SPACE OVERVIE W he Brazil space program has been in development since the 1960s. The Aerospace Technology and Science Department (DCTA) was founded in 1953, and the National Institute of Space Research (INPE) in 1971; both were established for space research to advance national space capabilities. The founding of a formal Brazilian space mission in 1981 and the development of launch vehicles culminated in the successful test of a Sonda IV sounding rocket in 1984, launching from Barreira do Inferno site in the Northeast region of the country. In 1993, the SCD-1 data-collecting satellite marked the first system developed by INPE, although it was launched from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida with a Pegasus launch vehicle developed by American company Orbital Sciences Corporation.113

between all members of the emerging space network, from military branches such as the Air Force to academic space institutes.115 This shift to a civilian space agency signaled de-militarization to other international space actors, including the United States, thawing relations between the two countries.

In the late 1990s the Brazilian space program initiated development of the VLS-1, a launch vehicle designed to deliver 350 kg payloads into low Earth orbit (LEO) from Alcântara launch site on the Northern Atlantic coast.116 However, investment in the program faltered, which combined with a series of errors led to the failure of two launches in flight, and a third rocket exploding on the launch pad in 2003, killing 21 people.117 This tragedy saw the death of many scientists and engineers, which had a considerable impact on the development of launch capabilities.118 A series of government enquiries and comprehensive review of the VLS-1 initiated a rehaul of technical components, system design, as well as onboard electrical and pyrotechnical networks.119 However, some of the same funding shortages remain.

Brazil’s efforts towards self-sufficient launch capabilities are considerable and include pursuing autonomy in the production of solid fuel for launch, ammonium perchlorate.114 The 1994 creation of the Brazilian Space Agency (AEB) saw the establishment of a semi-autonomous civilian agency. The new agency represented a significant transition from the previous military leadership of the Brazil space program. Such a shift requires institutional adjustment and cooperation

Today, Brazil is in a deep recession, partially sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a 5% drop in GDP.120 Although vaccination efforts have

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ESA (2022) SCD (Satélite de Coleta de Dados) - Data Collection Program of Brazil. https://earth.esa.int/web/eoportal/satellitemissions/s/scd 114 National Photographic Interpretation Center (1982) Brazilian Space Launch Vehicle Program. Missile Ranges: Strategic SSm Space Facilities. https://www.thespacereview.com/archive/2050.pdf 115 Melo & Vasconcellos (2020). 116 Melo & Vasconcellos (2020). 117 Space Daily (2003) Brazilian Rocket Explodes On Pad: Many Dead. 23 August 2003. https://www.spacedaily.com/news/rocketscience-03zu.html 118 Melo & Vasconcellos (2020). 119 IAE (2014) VLS-1 Satellite Launch Vehicle. 5 November 2014. https://iae.dcta.mil.br/index.php/projects/vls-1-satellite-launchvehicle 120 OECD (2021) Economic Forecast Summary, December 2021. Accessible: https://www.oecd.org/economy/brazil-economicsnapshot/#:~:text=Economic%20Forecast%20Summary%20(December%202021,restarted%20as%20restrictions%20were%20lifted

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26 [Type here]

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Alcântara Launch Center is located just two degrees south of the equator, 300 kilometers closer to the equator than any other active launch site in the world

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seen an upswing in the economy, funding for the space sector remains limited. In the height of the pandemic, the AEB significantly cut back the research, development and human capital budget.121 2021 saw a considerable drop in the AEB budget, down to $27 million from $36 million before the pandemic. However, the budget for 2022 ($33 million) indicates an increase after the main impact of the pandemic.122 Nonetheless, in comparison to other spacefaring countries, this budget remains low. However, Brazil is showing dedication to its space program in the pursuit of international partners and investors.

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razil has longstanding cooperation with several countries including Germany, Ukraine, Russia and China. In 1988, a China-Brazil agreement set forth objectives on the joint development of Earth-imaging satellites to be launched from Shanxi.

However, the lack of economic investment from Brazil saw these plans stagnate. Ukraine-Brazil cooperation in 2003 aspired to use Ukrainian the Tsyklon-4 rocket to launch satellites. However, these efforts also ceased in 2015 due to a lack of funding. There have been a number of joint successes, including the Microsatellite Launch Vehicle (VLM) program with the German Space Agency, which led to the successful launch of VSB-30 on 23 October 2004 from the Alcântara Launch Center, despite the VLS-1 tragedy in the year prior. A series of successful programs since include the GEO satellite built with Italian Thales, which took off in 2017. However, the latter launched from French Guiana.123 Brazil’s Alcântara Launch Center is located just two degrees south of the Equator, 300 kilometers closer to the Equator than any other active launch site in the world.124 This location could allow for larger payloads and lower cost rocket launches.125 In theory, this could position the site as a close contender to French Guiana for space business. In reality, even Brazil continues to utilize launch sites overseas. Despite its promise, Alcântara remains behind, due to years of poor management and a lack of adequate resources and funding.126 Relations with Russia are largely positive, strengthened by military-technical

121

Valor (2020) Agencia Espacial Brasileira zera orcamento do pesquisa em 2021. 17 August 2020. https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2020/08/17/agencia-espacial-brasileira-zera-orcamento-do-inpe-para-pesquisa-em-2021.ghtml 122 Protal da Transparência (2022) Agência Espacial Brasileira. http://www.portaldatransparencia.gov.br/orgaos/20402?ano=2021 123 Milani, Livia Peres (2019) Brazil’s Space Program: Finally Taking Off? Wilson Center. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blogpost/brazils-space-program-finally-taking 124 Henry, Caleb (2020) Brazil looks abroad for small rockets seeking a little extra boost. SpaceNews. 13 August 2020. https://spacenews.com/brazil-looks-abroad-for-small-rockets-seeking-a-little-extra-boost/ 125 Reuters (2021) Virgin Orbit among new operators for Brazil's Alcântara spaceport. 6 May 2021. https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/virgin-orbit-among-new-operators-brazils-alcntara-spaceport-2021-05-06/ 126 Mier, Brian (2017) Alcântara Spaceport: Race, Land Rights and National Sovereignty. Brazil Wire. 4 February 2017. https://www.brasilwire.com/alcantara-spaceport/

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27 [Type here] cooperation. In 2005, Brazil and Russia signed an agreement on cooperation in space, which established a strategic alliance between the two countries, with the intention to explore more opportunities for cooperation.127 A year after the agreement was signed, the first Brazilian astronaut travelled to the International Space Station onboard a Russian Soyuz launcher. It was reported that Russia only charged $10 million, half the usual price for such a launch.128 In 2008, the two countries signed an additional agreement on defense technology cooperation, which includes the joint development of a launch vehicle. Brazil is involved in the development and implementation of the Russian Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS), the Russian GPS equivalent. In 2015, Brazil announced plans to partner with Russia on the Aster mission, the first Brazilian deep space mission to explore an asteroid between Mars and Jupiter.129 The United States is becoming an important space partner to Brazil, in a dynamic that may increasingly compete with Russian interests in space. A 2015 agreement between the AEB and NASA resulted in Brazil participating in programs such as the Global Learning and Observation to Benefit the Environment Program (GLOBE), in which 300 Brazilian schools contribute to science projects.130 US-Brazil cooperation in space also includes the 2018 Space Situational Awareness Agreement, the 2019

Research Design Testing & Evaluation Agreement, the 2019 designation of Brazil as a Major NATO Non-Ally, and space weather sharing.131 In February 2021, NASA and the City of Rio de Janeiro renewed their agreement to cooperate and share data, models, and space knowledge for an additional five years.132 On 15 June 2021, Brazil became the first Latin American country to sign the Artemis Accords, a NASA-led agreement which seeks to generate a shared vision of principles to promote a safe space environment for exploration, science and business.133 Increasing cooperation with the United States may prove beneficial to the Brazil space sector, which is in need of foreign investment. Potentially the most transformative agreement to the Brazil space program, the 2019 Technology Safeguards Agreement (TSA) set forth shared principles between Brazil and the United States, namely promoting a safe and space environment for exploration, science and business.134 The Agreement marked a new step in the two countries’ relations, with the potential to deliver significant benefits to both parties. Permitting US launches from Alcântara could open the center to the global market for space launches and an array of commercial actors. This agreement sits at the heart of plans to capture a portion of the projected $18 billion small satellite launch market by 2029.135 In turn, US companies

127

Ionescu, Imanuela (2018) Brazil-Russia Military-Technical Cooperation: A Fruit of the Post-Cold War World Order. Military Review. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/November-December-2018/IonescuBrazil-Russia/ 128 Ibid. 129 Ibid. 130 US Embassy & Consulates in Brazil (2022) Fact Sheet: U.S.-Brazil Space Cooperation. https://br.usembassy.gov/fact-sheet-u-sbrazil-space-cooperation/ 131 Ibid. 132 Ibid. 133 Ibid. 134 Ibid. 135 Reuters (2021).

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could benefit from the site’s vicinity to the Equator. Four companies seek to operate from the Alcântara launch center, Canadian company C6 Launch, as well as US-based companies Hyperion, Orion AST and Virgin Orbit.136 Virgin Orbit’s LauncherOne systems may be the first to reach orbit from Brazil, launching from modified a Boeing 747 taking off from Alcântara’s 2.6kilometer runway.137 This would transform Alcântara into the second orbital-class launch site in South America, and the fifth in the Southern Hemisphere.138

US launches from Alcântara could open the center to the global market for space launches

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FUTURE

he TSA offers promise towards overcoming Brazil’s space challenges by increasing investments and space revenue. The Alcântara Launch Center presents a competitive opportunity due to its location near the Equator, which is easier for rockets to achieve the necessary velocity to reach orbit, allowing for fuel savings.139 Moreover, the AEB has a solid foundation of expertise to facilitate future engagement and space industry growth. A detailed Brazilian Space Industry Roadmap could

help inform the strategic direction and establish viable opportunities to boost the Brazilian space industry.140 There is still work to be done to accommodate private companies seeking to access Brazil’s space industry and launch capabilities. For one, the wider region around Alcântara lacks the infrastructure to support liquid-fueled launch vehicles. Future plans may seek to transform the launch site, but challenges remain. For example, the expansion of Alcântara’s base poses a significant threat to local communities and the surrounding environment. In the 18th and 19th centuries, tens of thousands of enslaved people were brought to the region surrounding Alcântara to work in the cotton industry.141 Shortly after Brazil’s cotton economy crashed, free black communities were established throughout the region. When the spaceport was built in the 1980s, 1,500 people from these communities were resettled further inland without enough land to maintain them.142 Alcântara expansion plans have generated local opposition, as it could take even more land from vulnerable communities such as these.143 Increasing space collaboration with the United States has also generated concern among the public regarding the perceived threat to Brazil’s sovereignty in the Amazon.144 Any expansions to Brazil’s space capabilities must take into consideration the wider environmental and societal impact, particularly any threats to

136

US Embassy & Consulates in Brazil (2022). Reuters (2021). 138 Virgin Orbit (2021) Virgin Orbit selected to bring Orbit Launch capabilities to Brazil. https://virginorbit.com/the-latest/virgin-orbitselected-to-bring-orbital-launch-capabilities-to-brazil/ 139 Milani (2019). 140 Melo & Vasconcellos (2020). 141 Mier (2017). 142 Ibid. 143 Ibid. 144 Ibid. 137

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29 [Type here] local communities and the Amazon rainforest. Brazil also faces challenges in motivating younger generations to pursue Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) subjects to keep up with the anticipated growth of its space sector. A number of initiatives, such as the Mars Society Brazil community, hope to enable wider outreach and awareness raising of the Brazilian space program. The Mars Society at the Federal University of Rio Grande do

Norte shares scientific NASA and ESA public tools to promote learning about Space. The group uses social media platforms, such as Facebook, as well as messaging service WhatsApp to generate a sense of community, promote public outreach and support international space collaboration.145 Grass-level initiatives such as these may prove useful to boost motivation within regions, contributing to knowledge sharing and greater support for national space initiatives and international collaboration.

145

Rezende, Julio, Alvara Oliveira, Davi Souza and Dalmo Santos (2020) Motivating for Space in Brazil. ICES. https://ttuir.tdl.org/bitstream/handle/2346/86489/ICES-2020-444.pdf?sequence=1

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Saudi Arabia Key Points146 Funding: There are plans to invest $2.1 billion in the nation’s space program by 2030. Organizations: • The Saudi Space Commission (SSC) • The King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) • Arab Satellite Communications Organization (Arabsat) Capabilities: • Saudisat 5a and Saudisat 5b imaging satellites • Arabsat communications satellites • SaudiComsat communications satellites International partners: The United States, China, the UAE, the UK, Greece, France, the European Space Agency.

SUMMARY

audi Arabia has been active in space for nearly half a century, investing its considerable wealth into regional initiatives such as Arabsat. 1985 marked a turning point, when the first Saudi Arabian astronaut, Prince Sultan bin Salman, travelled into space. The Saudi satellite program has developed several satellites since 1998, with the start of commercial activities in 2004. While the country does not yet have launch capabilities, ambitious plans are underway to develop low-cost satellite launch and manufacturing systems. Vision 2030, the governments strategic

146

development plan, sets out goals regarding the creation of a high-tech industrial and research sector and reducing the Saudi economy's dependence on oil exports. The region is engaged in a space race of its own, with Saudi Arabia competing against the UAE and their common rival, Iran. Regional conflict and engagement in the war in Yemen may pose potential obstacles to successful international partnering and investment.

Map: credit https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Saudi_Arabia_on_the_globe_(Saudi_Arabia_centered).svg

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NATIONAL SPACE OVERVIEW The King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) was initially founded in 1978 as the Saudi Arabian National Center for Science and Technology. KACST supports and leads a range of research programs, across solar energy, atomic energy, agriculture, engineering, medicine and space.152 Saudi Arabia’s first astronaut, Prince Sultan bin Salman, took off onboard the American STS-51 Space Shuttle in 1985.153 As well as being the first astronaut from an Arab or Muslim country in space, he was one of the youngest, at only 28.154 Although he lacked the advanced technical or scientific background typically sought by NASA, he had studied mass communications, trained as a civilian pilot, spoke fluent English, and was the son of Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, which qualified him as a payload specialist for the spaceflight.155 The Arabsat communications spacecraft, largely funded by Saudi Arabia, was deployed into orbit during this spaceflight.156

audi Arabia, along with some of its neighbors in the region, has long held an interest in space. Throughout the 1960s, members of the Arab League developed a set of principles with regard to a satellite network, culminating in the 1976 founding of the Arab Satellite Communications Organization (Arabsat), headquartered in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.147 Arabsat has two satellite control stations in Riyadh and Tunis, which service countries across the Middle East, North Africa and Europe.148 Arabsat signified a considerable turning point, connecting the region with the world.149 Saudi Arabia was the largest financial contributor at the time of Arabsat’s founding, holding a 36.7% share, far more than the next largest shareholders, Kuwait (14.6%), Libya (11.3%), Qatar (9.8%) and the UAE (4.7).150 The Egypt-led Arab States Broadcasting Union (ASBU) was established in 1969, although Saudi Arabia did not join until 1974.151 It is possible that this was due to tense relations between Egypt and Saudi Arabia at the time.

The Saudi satellite program formally started in 1998, with SaudiSat 1A and 1B (later designated Saudi-Oscar 41 and 42) launched in September 2000, followed by SaudiSat 1C (Saudi-Oscar 50) launched in December 2002, and SaudiSat 2 in June 2004.157 In 2004, the Saudi satellite program began commercial activities with the launch of Saudi-

147

ArabSat (2022) About. https://www.arabsat.com/english/about Ibid. 149 Rashad, Marwa (2020) Saudi Arabia plans $2 billion boost for space programme by 2030. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudieconomy-space/saudi-arabia-plans-2-billion-boost-for-space-programme-by-2030-idUSKBN27D1ZH 150 ArabSat (2022). 151 ASBU (2022) Arab and International Cooperation. http://www.asbu.net/ar/6/%D8% 152 Saudi Arabia (1987) KACST: A Symbol of Scientific and Technological Progress, Saudi Arabia 3(2). 153 Shirah, Bader, Yousef M. Al Talhi. (2021) A roadmap for incorporating space medicine into the strategic plans of the Saudi space commission. REACH 21-22. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235230932100002X 154 Rashad (2020). 155 Beck, John (2020) Mars Mission Is Next Step in Intensifying Middle East Space Race. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-06-24/saudi-arabia-and-u-a-e-have-entered-their-own-space-race 156 NASA Life Sciences Data Archive (2022) Mission/Study Information STS-51G. https://lsda.jsc.nasa.gov/Mission/miss/169 157 Altwaijry, Haithem (2010) Saudi Space Activities National Satellite Technology Program KACST. National Satellite Technology Program, KACST. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/ALTWAIJRY%20SWW%202010.pdf 148

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32 z ComSat.158 The Saudi Space Commission SSC) was established by royal decree on 27 December 2018, with Prince Sultan bin Salman appointed chairman of the board of directors.159 The Commission’s mandate is to stimulate space-related research and industrial activities. However, the establishment of the SSC came at a tense time for international diplomacy, only shortly after the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.160 The establishment of the SSC required close collaboration with Western spacefaring nations, many of whom were opposed to Saudi Arabia’s role in the death of Khashoggi.

regional instability, and domestic issues, such as youth unemployment and inefficient government.164 One of the objectives to meet 2030 goals includes developing low-cost satellite launch and manufacturing systems to achieve a high-tech industrial and research sector and the reduction of Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil.165 Another objective includes attracting and training young people pursuing science and technology studies. The Space Generations Program was initiated with the goal to inspire new generations and produce more space engineers and scientists.166

Founding the SSC was not a smooth process, taking 14 months to define the organizational structure, change the name from Saudi Space Agency and appoint members of the Board of Directors.161 At its first meeting, however, the SSC Board of Directors approved the National Space Strategy for the next 10 years, which outlines an unpublished plan for the development of human capital in space sciences.162

audi Arabia is a member of the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, having signed the five UN treaties and principles on outer space.167 The Saudi Space Commission became a member of the International Astronautical Federation to boost its space sector.168 There are also ambitious plans underway to attract investment from international corporations and to facilitate the entry of Saudi small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) to the global space market.169

In 2020, Prince Sultan bin Salman announced SR8 billion ($2.1 billion) plans to invest in the nation’s space program by 2030, as part of an economic diversification plan that seeks to attract foreign investment and generate thousands of jobs.163 Vision 2030 was developed to instigate reforms as the nation faces plummeting oil prices, increasing

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The United States and Saudi Arabia enjoy good relations, with an extensive trade history and defense deals. Space-based trade includes US-based Lockheed Martin building satellite communication systems for Arabsat. Academic collaboration between the United States and Saudi Arabia has grown in

158

Altwaijry (2010). Shirah, Bader & Yousef M. Al Talhi (2021) A roadmap for incorporating space medicine into the strategic plans of the Saudi space commission. REACH 21-22. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235230932100002X 160 Beck (2020). 161 Pons, Juan (2020) Saudi Arabia focuses its attention on the space sector within the framework of the Vision 2030 Plan. Atalayar 4 March 2020. https://atalayar.com/en/content/saudi-arabia-focuses-its-attention-space-sector-within-framework-vision-2030-plan 162 Pons (2020). 163 Rashad (2020). 164 Space Watch (2022) Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030: A Golden Opportunity for Space?. https://spacewatch.global/2016/05/saudi-arabias-vision-2030-golden-opportunity-space-2/ 165 Pons (2020). 166 Ibid. 167 Ibid. 168 Arab News (2021a) Saudi space sector takes another giant leap with membership of global body, 8 February 2022. https://www.arabnews.com/node/1956101/saudi-arabia 169 Pons (2020). 159

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33 z importance. KACST embarked on a number of collaborative efforts, including the Center of Excellence for Aeronautics and Astronautics (CEAA), jointly established with Stanford University. CEAA was founded with the goal to enhance advanced research on space and aeronautical technology, while contributing to the transformation of Saudi Arabia “from a resource-based economy to a knowledgedriven society”.170 KACST has also jointly founded a Centre of Excellence for Space and Earth with the California Institute of Technology.171 Saudi Arabia remained a regional leader in space until 2004 when Iran, its geopolitical rival, established a space agency and embarked on its ambitious space program.172 The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has also overtaken Saudi Arabia in its space initiatives in recent years, building up a considerable reputation in the global scientific community as a key contributor to space.173 The region is engaged in a space race of its own.174 While Saudi Arabia and the UAE form allies and economic partners, both countries do not have good relations with Iran. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been engaged in proxy wars in Syria and Yemen, with regional sectarian violence fueling the conflict. If the geopolitical landscape shifts, there is potential for militarization, which could affect the peaceful use of outer space. Relations between China and Saudi Arabia are good, and the two countries are strategic

allies and partners in space. Saudi Arabia has cooperated with China to launch Saudidesigned and built satellites to monitor Earth’s surface to enable urban planning, climate monitoring and high-resolution imaging.175 Saudisat 5a and Saudisat 5b were launched from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in China in 2018.176 The high-resolution images are used for Saudi defense and civilian applications.177 KACST also participated in the 2018 Chinese moon exploration mission Chang'e 4, developing an optical camera as part of a scientific payload.178

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The region is engaged in a space race of its own

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Russia and Saudi Arabia are both global oil exporters. In 2020, both countries engaged in an oil price war, leading to a significant price drop. Russia’s cooperation with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), an organization with 15 member countries including Saudi Arabia, came under tension, though climbing oil prices after the pandemic may improve relations. In the space domain, Russia and Saudi generally have a cooperative relationship. Russia is training Saudi Arabian cosmonauts and both countries are developing a joint manned space mission.179

170

CCEA (2022) Center of Excellence for Aeronautics and Astronautics. https://ceaa.kacst.edu.sa/ https://www.arabianbusiness.com/industries/technology/460525-can-saudi-arabia-join-the-uae-as-space-race-superpower 172 Beck (2020). 173 Letzter, Rafi (2020) Here's why the United Arab Emirates launched a mission to Mars. Live Science. https://www.livescience.com/united-arab-emirates-mars-why.html 174 Beck (2020). 175 Bridge, Sam (2018) King announces plans to set up Saudi Space Agency. Arabian Business. https://www.arabianbusiness.com/industries/technology/410411-plans-revealed-to-set-up-saudi-space-agency 176 Bridge (2018). 177 Pons (2020). 178 Saudi Press Agency (2021) Saudi Arabia is on the Verge of New Phase in Space Industry, With its Global Investments are Estimated at More Than $350 Billion. https://www.spa.gov.sa/viewfullstory.php?lang=en&newsid=2204535 179 Reuters (2021) Russia and Saudi Arabia prepare for joint manned space mission: statement. 25 May 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-saudi-arabia-prepare-joint-manned-space-mission-statement-2021-05-25/ 171

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34 z The SSC has signed a number of agreements, for example, with the French National Center for Space Studies, on the subject of the peaceful use of outer space, as well as with the UK, Hungary and the European Space Agency.180 Saudia Arabia also cooperates with Greece, developing the Satellite 1/Hellas Sat 4 launched in 2019, a collaboration between KACST and Hellas Sat, the Greek satellite communication operator subsidiary of ArabSat.181 There are plans underway to sign additional agreements with the United States, Russia, China, India and the UAE to enhance space cooperation.182 Brazil and Saudi Arabia have signed cooperation agreements in a range of economic, industrial and infrastructure sectors. There are also plans to enhance cooperation on the peaceful use of space.183

FUTURE onsidering Saudi Arabia’s status as a regional power, its significant financial potential, as well as its diplomatic and economic obstacles, Saudi Arabia seeks to form an expansive network of partnerships with space agencies, private companies, universities and research centers across the world.184 Saudi Arabia has ambitions to become a leading player in the global space industry, while increasing employment rates among its young population and becoming less dependent on the oil industry.185 However, significant challenges remain. The rising cost of living for students in cities, partly due to massive population growth, may present a barrier to entry into STEM fields. A

number of domestic and international scholarships offer support to talented students. Moreover, the Saudi government has invested considerably in e-learning. In 2011 the government opened the Saudi Electronic University (SEU), a fully online university offering a range of science and technology programs.186 As Saudi Arabia moves towards its goals of Vision 2030, it remains to be seen how its efforts to become a global leader may be affected by regional instability and diplomatic tensions, for example, in relation to the war in Yemen. Saudi Arabia strongly relies on cooperation with established spacefaring countries for its satellites to be launched. The Kingdom finds itself in space competition with other actors in the region, including the UAE and Iran.187 While friendly rivalry can prove constructive towards fostering a competitive and innovative space sector, Iran-Saudi Arabia relations are locked in a regional ‘Cold War’ to secure influence in the region. If regional conflict escalates, there is a possibility that the scientific space budget may be constrained, or programs repurposed towards military uses. Moreover, there are certain to be wider impacts and challenges with regard to transitioning from a resource-based economy to one that is more varied and innovative. As oil revenues reduce, budgets may tighten, making some of the ambitions of Vision 2030 more difficult to achieve, particularly where they relate to expensive space endeavors.

180

Arab News (2021b) Saudi Space Commission signs agreement with French counterpart.8 February 2022. https://www.arabnews.com/node/1981001/business-economy 181 Pons (2020). 182 Rashad (2020). 183 Arab News (2019) Brazil and Saudi Arabia sign cooperation agreements during Bolsonaro visit. 30 October 2019. https://www.arabnews.com/node/1576686/saudi-arabia 184 Ibid. 185 Arab News (2021a). 186 Almalki, Faris & Marios Angelidis (2016) Considering near space platforms to close the coverage gap in wireless communications: The case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7821614 187 Beck (2020).

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South Korea

Key Points188 Funding: The 2022 space budget is $553 million. Organizations: • •

Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI)

Capabilities: • • • •

Naro Space Center launch site Korea Space Launch Vehicle (KSLV-I) Nuri KSLV-II three-stage launch vehicle STSat-2 Earth monitoring satellite

International partners: The United States, Europe, Russia, Australia

SUMMARY

outh Korea (ROK) is a technologically advanced nation with a strong economy and rapidly growing space sector. Despite its diplomatic clout and good standing with key international partners, South Korea struggles with tense relations with its neighbors. The Korean Peninsula has long been an arena of conflict, which has colored most aspects of South Korea’s public policy, including the space sector. Space programs are predominantly military, based on early warning capabilities and surveillance and reconnaissance. South Korea has satellite

design, manufacture and launch capabilities, with ambitions to land on the moon in 2030, and develop the Korea Positioning System (KPS) by 2035. These achievements are significant, but the development and testing of rockets, as well as the reintroduction of solidfuel launchers has exacerbated tensions with North Korea. The neighboring authoritarian regime is developing space capabilities of its own. South Korea relies on space-based systems to bolster its defense posture and enhance deterrence in the region.

188

Map: credit https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:South_Korea_on_the_globe_(South_Korea_centered).svg

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pursue her business studies.192 By 2009, South Korea built the Naro Space Center, successfully launching the Naro-1 rocket (Korea Space Launch Vehicle KSLV-I) into orbit in 2013.193 The milestone STSat-2 delivered important Earth atmosphere monitoring and space system orbit tracking capabilities.194 In October 2021, the launch of South Korea's first domestically built space rocket (KSLV-II) completed its flight sequences but failed to deliver a test satellite into orbit.195 KARI plans to conduct more test launches in 2022.196 The Nuri KSLV-II rocket is a three-stage launch vehicle capable of placing a 1.5-ton application satellite into solar synchronous orbit at 600-800 km.197 Overseen by the government, private defense contractor Korea Aerospace Industries is responsible for the design and manufacture of the Nuri rocket.198

NATIONAL SPACE OVERVIEW

he Korean Peninsula has long been a region of conflict and tensions, leading to rapid development of military and defense technologies in space. The Agency for Defense Development (ADD) was established in 1970, to research develop, and test defense technologies, including space-related technologies.189 The founding of the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) in 1974 set off the development of a sizeable space sector. In 1987 the Aerospace Industry Development Promotion Act was the first legislation adopted, followed by the establishment of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) in 1989.190 KARI, the aeronautics and space agency of South Korea, focuses on science and technology in space-based and multidomain defense technologies.191 Considering the mounting threats from its neighbor, South Korea aspires to become a global space and military power to maintain its defense posture against North Korea.

“

The Aeronautics and Space Agency of South Korea focuses on science and technology in space-based and multidomain defense technologies

In 1993, South Korea launched its first scientific sounding rocket, KSR 1, followed by two others in 1997 and 2002. These rapid developments set the pace for spacerelated initiatives. South Korea sent its first astronaut, Yi So-yeon, to the International Space Station in 2008. Yi was heavily promoted in the media, although she announced her retirement in 2014, to

” ”

189

ESPI (2021). Ibid. Ibid. 192 Kang, Tae-jun (2014) South Korea’s Only Astronaut Retires. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2014/06/south-koreas-onlyastronaut-retires/ 193 ESPI (2021). 194 ESA (2022). 195 Smith, Josh (2021) S.Korea's Moon vows 'Korea space age' after rocket test falters. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/skorea-prepares-launch-first-domestically-produced-space-rocket-2021-10-20/ 196 Smith (2021) 197 KARI (2022) Nuri, the Korean Launch Vehicle. https://www.kari.re.kr/eng/sub03_04_01.do 198 Onchi, Yosuke (2021) South Korea chases global ambitions in space and defense. Nikkei Asia. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aerospace-Defense/South-Korea-chases-global-ambitions-in-space-and-defense 190 191

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South Korea also plans to develop and launch its first solid-fuel rocket by 2024. Successful engine tests took place in July 2021, after the United States lifted longstanding restrictions on the use of solid fuels under a revision of the South KoreaUS missile guidelines.199 Solid fuels provide improved thrust and are less complicated than liquid propellants.200 Developing solidfuel capabilities can signify a considerable step towards opening a nation’s launch sites to foreign private companies. The planned 2024 launch from the Naro Space Center in Goheung would deliver a 500 kg reconnaissance satellite to orbit.201 The government has revealed plans to build additional infrastructure, including a new launching site and a rocket tracking system at Goheung. 202 If successful, the South Korean military plans to use these launch vehicles to deliver reconnaissance satellites into orbit to monitor North Korea, as part of the country’s "kill chain" detection and pre-emptive strike system.203 The ROK defense budget has been increasing rapidly, with its five-year defense plan starting in 2022 calling for $266 billion in total spending.204 As well as bolstering defense against its neighbor, South Korea also harbors ambitions to become a global

space leader. In 2021, South Korea announced plans for a 4% increase in its space budget of $544 million for 2022, bringing the budget to $553 million.205 The government has also earmarked $1.4 billion for the domestic defense satellite sector over the next decade.206 There are plans underway at KARI to develop a reusable launcher with liquid-fueled 100-ton thrust engines, but timelines are not yet clear.207 This rocket is considered necessary for South Korea’s ambitions of landing on the moon by 2030 and building the KPS by 2035.208 To prepare for these goals, South Korea aims to establish a pilot network of communication satellites to support 6G wireless, and to enable advanced technologies such as autonomous vehicles and a nanosatellite constellation system for space-related national defense.209 A moonshot would certainly place South Korea as a global space leader. In addition, the KPS - consisting of eight satellites intended for launch between 2027 and 2034 – would present a gamechanger for Korea’s space sector and global standing. The KPS would make South Korea the seventh country in the world to have its own satellitebased positioning, navigation and timing system.210

199

Soo-hyang, Choi (2021) S. Korea to launch homegrown solid-fuel space rocket by 2024. Yonhap News Agency. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20210916003351325 200 Onchi (2021). 201 Soo-hyang (2021). 202 Ibid. 203 Onchi (2021). 204 Ibid. 205 Si-soo, Park (2021h) South Korea seeks $553 million space budget for 2022. SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/south-koreaseeks-553-million-space-budget-for-2022/ 206 Smith, Josh and Sangmi Cha (2021) S.Korea's launch of space rocket boosts its homegrown contractors. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/skoreas-launch-space-rocket-boosts-its-homegrown-contractors-2021-1021/#:~:text=South%20Korea%20plans%20a%204,the%20domestic%20defence%20satellite%20sector. 207 Si-soo, Park (2021a) South Korea to develop reusable rocket with 100-ton thrust engines. SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/south-korea-to-develop-reusable-rocket-with-100-ton-thrust-engines/ 208 Si-soo (2021a). 209 Si-soo, Park (2021b) South Korean leader vows ‘landing on the moon by 2030’. SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/southkorean-leader-vows-landing-on-the-moon-by-2030/ 210 Si-soo, Park (2021c) South Korea’s GNSS project to take off with $3.3 billion budget. SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/southkoreas-gnss-project-to-take-off-with-3-3-billion-budget/

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z 38 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

fter a devastating war on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea has risen to become the world's 12th-largest economy and nation of advanced technologies, home to Samsung Electronics, a global tech leader.211 The country holds good diplomatic relations with many countries, as well as a Korean former UN Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon. Despite South Korea’s international standing as a key regional power, technological giant and economic powerhouse, it suffers from poor relations with its closest neighbor. The end of World War II saw the Korean peninsula divided into two territories, followed by the Korean war in the 1950s. The two countries have had frosty relations since, exacerbated by North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests. The United States and South Korea are longstanding allies, based on their shared military history in the Korean war. In addition to cooperating on matters related to defense and security, the two countries are major trading partners. In the space industry, companies from both countries have collaborated on large-scale projects. In August 2021, the South Korean air force agreed to join the US space Force training to enhance their space defense capabilities. The agreement also established a join consultative body to share space policy aims, space surveillance information and missile defense capabilities.212 Beyond the

two countries’ military cooperation, there has been extensive collaboration in the private sector. In late 2021, Seoul-based ground station services provider Contec agreed to collaborate with US smallsat mission integrator NanoAvionics to send an Earth observation satellite to space in 2023 onboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.213 South Korea and The European Union (EU) are important trading partners since the establishment of a free trade agreement between the two parties in 2011.There is also growing security cooperation between the EU and South Korea, centralized in four key areas: nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament; cybersecurity; preventive diplomacy and crisis management; and space policy and technology.214 EU-ROK space cooperation formed during the 2006 agreement regarding the joint development of the Galileo program where parties contributed to a civil global navigation satellite system.215 In 2016 Europe-based Thales signed a contract with KARI to supply technologies derived of the satellite navigation-augmenting EGNOS system.216 The EGNOS system, developed for the European Space Agency, improves the precision of GPS signals over Europe, providing regular updates on signal integrity.217 Both the EU and South Korea benefit from space cooperation, for example, in shared access to images vital for national security and crisis management.

211

Phys.org. (2021) South Korea launches first domestic space rocket but mission fails. https://phys.org/news/2021-10-south-koreaspace-rocket-tv.html 212 Si-soo, Park (2021f) US, South Korea agree to enhance security cooperation in outer space. SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/us-south-korea-agree-to-enhance-security-cooperation-in-outer-space/ 213 Si-soo, Park (2021g) South Korean ground station operator orders its first EO satellite. SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/south-korean-ground-station-operator-orders-its-first-eo-satellite/ 214 Casarini, Nicola (2021) The EU’s Growing Security Cooperation With South Korea. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-eus-growing-security-cooperation-with-south-korea/ 215 Casarini (2021). 216 ESA (2016) European EGNOS technology for South Korea. https://www.esa.int/Applications/Navigation/European_EGNOS_technology_for_South_Korea 217 ESA (2016).

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Russia and South Korea have had diplomatic ties since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today, the two countries cooperate on a number of economic, security and space initiatives. South Korea’s first astronaut travelled to the International Space Station onboard a Russian Soyuz rocket. In 2017 South Korea’s CAS500-1 remote sensing satellite was launched from Russia’s Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan along with satellites for several other countries.218 However, Russia-South Korea space cooperation has not always run smoothly. South Korea’s first two launches, which partly relied on Russian technology, failed in 2009 and 2010.219 The second launch exploded shortly into the flight, resulting in the two countries blaming each other for the incident.220 South Korea has strong relations with Australia, with both countries seeking mutual benefits from each other’s growing space sectors. In 2021, South Korea and Australia signed a memorandum of understanding for space cooperation.221 Both countries agreed to improve cooperation in space exploration, launch capabilities and satellite navigation, as well as enhancing their space sectors.222

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Defense is likely to remain at the forefront of South Korea’s spacerelated R&D

FUTURE

outh Korea is increasingly recognizing space as an important strategic domain to enhance its military capabilities and defense systems.223 However, the recent developments in launch capabilities come at a sensitive time on the Korean peninsula, as the North Korean regime has been conducting a number of ballistic missile tests. North Korea has also complained of “double standards” allowing the United States and South Korea to accelerate their weapons development, while denouncing Pyongyang’s missile tests.224 Space-related activities in South Korea, even if they are civilian, are likely to draw concern from North Korea. This dynamic generates the potential for escalation if South Korea takes its space program forward in a way that is perceived as threatening by the North Korean government. Considering the ongoing tensions on the peninsula, defense is likely to remain at the forefront of South Korea’s space-related research and development. Space superiority over its neighbor can be expected to remain a key strategic priority, with defense and space funding showing no sign of slowing down, despite the global pandemic. As such, South Korea is likely to remain a strategic space ally in the region to Western spacefaring countries.

”

Si-soo, Park (2021d) Soyuz launch marks first full-commercial mission of Russia’s GK Launch Services. SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/soyuz-launch-marks-first-full-commercial-mission-of-russias-gk-launch-services/ 219 Phys.org. (2021). 220 Phys.org. (2021). 221 Si-soo, Park (2021e) South Korea, Australia sign MOU on space cooperation. SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/south-koreaaustralia-sign-mou-on-space-cooperation/ 222 Si-soo (2021e) 223 ESPI (2021). 224 Yoon, Dasl and Timothy Martin (2021) South Korea Launches First Homegrown Rocket and Satellite Into Space. Wall Street journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-launches-first-homegrown-rocket-and-satellite-into-space-11634815655 218

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South Africa Key Points225 Funding: Annual turnover of $20M for organizations involved in space activities. Organizations: • • • •

The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) Satellite Applications Centre (SAC) Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT) French South African Institute of Technology (F’SATI)

Capabilities: • • • •

Maritime Domain Awareness Satellite (MDASat) MeerKAT radio telescope The Square Kilometer Array (SKA) Hartebeesthoek Center

International partners: The United States, ESA, France

SUMMARY

outh Africa is a space leader on the African continent, with a sizeable and well-established space sector. The tracking station at Hartebeesthoek in the Southern Cape formed an essential part of the NASA Deep Space Network throughout the 1960s. Today, South Africa is a contributor to a number of international space projects, lending expertise and services on satellite imagery and radio astronomy. South Africa is the only African country with the engineering capability to independently design and manufacture satellites, while most African countries rely on procuring products and

services from abroad. The South African national space program focuses on three priority areas: i) environmental resource management, ii) health, safety and security, and iii) innovation and economy.226 Space-based systems are developed to fulfil social and economic needs. The view held by the government is that space-related initiatives will create financial opportunities and facilitate social development.227 The Square Kilometer Array (SKA) is expected to deliver significant benefits to the country and the wider region. The internationally funded SKA project is expected to attract

225

Map: credit https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:South_Africa_on_the_globe_(Zambia_centered).svg Feldscher, Jacqueline (2019) South Africa leveraging space to solve problems on Earth. Politico. politico.com/news/2019/11/01/south-africa-space-063031 227 Ibid. 226

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around $2.3bn of investment, create thousands of jobs and inspire the next generation of space engineers.

NATIONAL SPACE OVERVIEW outh Africa’s location in the Southern hemisphere means it is geographically well-placed to support deep space missions. Throughout the 1960s the tracking station at Hartebeesthoek (c.a. 50 km Northwest of Johannesburg) formed an essential part of the NASA Deep Space Network, receiving planet images, including the first surface images of Mars from Mariner 4.228 Although the site fell out of use by NASA in 1975, it was converted to a facility for radioastronomy, a research area in which South Africa has been excelling.229 The French National Space Agency (CNES) tracking station at Hammanskraal outside Pretoria was relocated to Hartebeesthoek in 1980 and the site became the Satellite Applications Centre (SAC).230 The antennae were upgraded to receive 1:50 000 scale images for the first time, capturing highquality images from NASA and CNES satellites.231

“

Space-based systems are developed to fulfil social and economic needs

”

These developments marked the start to the South African space program, its key objectives aiming to develop Earth observation satellites and a launcher. The South African government built satellite integration and testing facilities at Grabouw, c.a. 70 km west of Cape Town, in addition to a launch site at Arniston on the South coast. The Arniston site was developed until the end of the program in 1994, with the facilities repurposed before any satellites were launched.232 In 1999 imaging Sunsat 1 (Sunsat Oscar 35) was launched, the first satellite to be designed and manufactured in South Africa by researchers at the University of Stellenbosch. The payload was launched aboard the Mission P-91 Delta rocket from Vandenberg in the United States, remaining active in orbit for two years.233 2005 marked the start of a new programs, ZASat, headed by the Department of Science and Technology. The 82kg pathfinder microsatellite bus SumbadilaSat ("Pathfinder" in the local Venda language), was designed, built and tested by the University of Stellenbosch in collaboration with over 40 local companies.234 This was a clear indication of the South African space sector’s ability to support a national space program.235 SumbadilaSat was launched in 2009 from a Soyux-2 launcher in Baikonur, Kazakhstan, operating in orbit until 2011. The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) was founded in 2010 with the mission to unify the country’s efforts in

228

University of Cape Town (2022) Space in South Africa. http://www.spacelab.uct.ac.za/space-south-africa-0 Feldscher (2019). 230 SANSA (2022) Programmes. https://www.sansa.org.za/about-sansa/ 231 SANSA (2022). 232 University of Cape Town (2022). 233 University of Cape Town (2022). 234 ESA (2022) SumbandilaSat. https://directory.eoportal.org/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/s/sumbandilasat 235 University of Cape Town (2022). 229

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space science, technology and research.236 SANSA establishes space cooperation agreements with other space agencies, and coordinates and implements the national space program.237 At the time of the space program’s design, SANSA consulted government departments to establish what their priorities for a space program were, as these departments were to use the satellite data to inform decision-making.238 South Africa’s space program focuses on three priority areas: i) environmental resource management, ii) health, safety and security, and iii) innovation and economy.239 Space-based systems are developed to fulfil social and economic needs, for instance, the cubesats tracking boats off of South Africa’s shoreline.240 Initiatives such as these have helped catch illegal fishing boats and drug smugglers.241 A number of institutions enable South Africa to position itself as a regional hub for space. Academic institutions such as Stellenbosch University, Cape Town University, and the Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT) offer specialized space engineering and policy courses.242 South Africa is also a leader in space industry on the continent, as the only country with the engineering capability to independently design and manufacture satellites.243 By contrast, most African

countries rely on procuring these products and services from abroad. South Africa is also home to the only space weather center in Africa, as well as the largest and most advanced ground segment of a spacebased system, with around 70 different antennas on the ground station.244

“

If current investments continue, the African continent’s space market is expected to exceed $10 billion in value by 2024

”

Although the Covid-19 pandemic dealt a blow to South Africa’s economy, the country looks to its space sector to boost economic recovery.245 The view held by the government, is that space-related initiatives will create financial opportunities and facilitate social development.246 Economically, the South African space industry shows promise, with an annual turnover of $20 million for organizations involved in space activities.247 There has been significant growth, as this revenue was only $10 million in 2019.248 The South African government is trying to drive this growth, with aims to generate $1.2 billion in

236

SANSA (2022). University of Cape Town (2022). 238 Feldscher (2019). 239 Feldscher (2019). 240 Feldscher (2019). 241 Feldscher (2019). 242 Space Generation Advisory Council (2022) National Points of South Africa. https://spacegeneration.org/regions/africa/southafrica 243 Adetola, Ayooluwa (2021) South Africa to Leverage its Space Industry for Socio-economic Growth. Space in Africa. https://africanews.space/south-africa-to-leverage-its-space-industry-for-socio-economic-growth/ 244 Ibid. 245 Ibid. 246 Ibid. 247 University of Cape Town (2022). 248 Adetola (2021). 237

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the next two years. In total, if current investments continue, the African continent’s space market is expected to exceed $10 billion in value by 2024.249 In January 2022, South Africa launched three satellites as part of the county’s new Maritime Domain Awareness Satellite (MDASat) constellation.250 The Cape Peninsula University of Technology played a lead role in developing the satellites, which were launched from Florida. This nanosatellite constellation marks a significant achievement for the university, South Africa and the entire continent, providing essential vessel tracking data and boosting skills and advanced technology.251 The constellation is designed to detect, monitor and identify foreign boats in South African waters, towards preventing illegal dumping and fishing.252 The Square Kilometer Array (SKA) is another space project that is expected to deliver significant benefits to the country and the wider region. South Africa is hosting the world’s largest radio telescope project.253 The MeerKAT radio telescope in the Northern Cape is one of the most advanced radio telescopes in the world, consisting of 64 connected satellite dishes across the region. Operated by the South

African Radio Astronomy Observatory (SARAO), the MeerKAT array forms an essential part of the SKA.254 MeerKAT presents a space sector development opportunity for the wider region, and the team has started training astronomers from other African countries.255 The internationally funded SKA project is expected to attract around $2.3 billion of investment, in addition to creating thousands of jobs.256 Moreover, the SKA project is bound to inspire the next generation of space engineers.

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

he The United States and South Africa enjoy good relations. Since 2004 the United States has invested over $7.25 billion in assistance in South Africa, contributing to health, education and business development.257 South Africa is also the United States’ largest trading partner on the African continent.258 The two countries have long-standing cooperation on space, since South Africa’s involvement in deep space programs in the 1960s. In 2020, NASA and SANSA signed a deep space communications study agreement to collaborate on technical and environmental research on a potential ground station in South Africa to support future space exploration missions, including the planned Artemis mission.259 Continued

Onyango, Conrad (2022) South Africa and Egypt lead the way in Africa’s space race. Quartz Africa. https://qz.com/africa/2120368/south-africa-and-egypt-lead-the-way-in-africas-space-race/ 250 Faleti, Joshua (2022) South Africa to Launch its MDAsat-1 Constellation on Thursday 13 January 2022. Space in Africa. https://africanews.space/south-africa-to-launch-its-mdasat-1-constellation-on-thursday-13-january-2022/ 251 Faleti (2022). 252 Royi, Nyameko (2022) South Africa: Nanosatellite Launch Is a Big Step Forward for African Space Science. AllAfrica. https://allafrica.com/stories/202201240010.html 253 Onyango (2022) 254 Bresnahan, Samantha (2021) These women are shaping the future of African space exploration . CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/07/africa/south-africa-zimbabwe-women-space-science-spc-intl/index.html 255 Ibid. 256 The Economist (2021) Africa is blasting its way into the space race. 19 June 2021. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-andafrica/2021/06/17/africa-is-blasting-its-way-into-the-space-race 257 US Department of State (2022) US relations with South Africa. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-south-africa/ 258 US Department of State (2022) US relations with South Africa. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-south-africa/ 259 Space in Africa (2020) SANSA & NASA Sign A Deep Space Communications Study Agreement. 24 February 2020. https://africanews.space/sansa-nasa-sign-a-deep-space-communications-study-agreement/ 249

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space cooperation is beneficial to both countries, allowing the United States the opportunity to join the African space race and become a major partner,260 as well as boosting the South African space economy and enhancing space capabilities.261 US companies offer promising partners, with the potential to use existing launch facilities on the Western Cape.262 The European Space Agency (ESA) and SANSA signed a Memorandum of Understanding in 2020, marking a significant step forward in space cooperation.263 SANSA currently has plans to build a joint computer lab in partnership with ESA, to shorten satellite manufacturing times.264 South Africa uses European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) facilities for research on the ionosphere.265 EISCAT consists of high-power radars based in Finland, Norway and Sweden with lowfrequency and Ultra high frequency facilities.266 SANSA and the German space agency also signed an agreement to collaborate on a space debris tracking station as part of the global Small Aperture Robotic Telescope Network (SMARTnet™).267 France is a key European space partner to South Africa, with cooperation between SANSA and the French space agency

(CNES) spanning several decades. In 1994, the French South African Institute of Technology (F’SATI) was jointly established in Cape Town and Pretoria to develop closer cooperation in engineering research and development between the two countries.268 Both space agencies signed a formal 2019 agreement to support future space collaboration in the areas of space operations, space science, Earth observation, telecommunications, applications, research and technology.269 In 2016, SANSA was awarded a CNES contract to host one of four antenna systems at the Hartebeesthoek facility, with the possibility of another ten-year extension to the contract.270 The South African ZACUBE-2 was developed at F’SATI at the Cape Peninsula University of Technology, launching in 2018 from the Vostochny Cosmodrome.271 South Africa also cooperates within the region, party to the African Union Space Policy and Strategy of 2016, as well as the African Space Agency, which was established to foster space cooperation across the continent. Nigeria and South Africa, as the two countries with the largest economies and space sectors in the region, make for promising partners on areas such as Earth observation, satellite

260

Devermond, Judd and Temidayo Oniosun (2020) IS THE UNITED STATES LOSING THE AFRICAN SPACE RACE? War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/is-the-united-states-losing-the-african-space-race/ 261 Iderawumi, Mustapha (2021) Excerpt from the U.S.-African Space Cooperation Webinar. Space in Africa. https://africanews.space/excerpt-from-the-u-s-african-space-cooperation-webinar/ 262 Iderawumi (2021). 263 Space in Africa (2020) South African National Space Agency Signs MoU with European Space Agency. 17 November 2020. https://africanews.space/south-african-national-space-agency-signs-mou-with-european-space-agency/ 264 Adetola (2021). 265 SANSA (2022c) European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) facility. https://www.sansa.org.za/european-incoherent-scatter-eiscatfacility/ 266 SANSA (2022b). 267 SANSA (2022b) Projects & Partnerships. Accessible https://www.sansa.org.za/projects-partnerships/ 268 F’SATI. (2022) About Us. https://www.fsati.org/index.php/en/about 269 UNOOSA (2019) France and South Africa sign founding agreement outlining future projects. https://un-spider.org/news-andevents/news/france-and-south-africa-sign-founding-agreement-outlining-future-projects 270 SANSA (2022d) Projects & Partnerships. https://www.sansa.org.za/projects-partnerships/ 271 F’SATI (2022) ZACube-2. https://blogs.cput.ac.za/fsati/zacube-2/

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communication, navigation and positioning, and space science.272

FUTURE he African continent’s space sector is set to grow in the coming decades, the combined space market expected to exceed $10 billion by 2024.273 South Africa is the largest player in the region, though there is likely to be continued cooperation and competition with other African space programs, including those of Egypt and Nigeria. Other countries in the region can expect to continue to benefit from South Africa’s research and development initiatives, and the SKA presents a significant space sector development opportunity for the African continent.

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South Africa’s economy has been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused millions to lose their jobs and strained national infrastructure and social cohesion.275 As the government aspires to move from a resource-based economy to a varied and knowledge-based economy, it remains to be seen how space funding can be sustained despite projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowdown.276

Other countries in the region can expect to continue to benefit from South Africa’s research and development initiatives

”

South Africa is likely to prioritize relationships with key international partners such as the United States to build up its space capabilities and expertise. Plans at SANSA are underway to develop the next generation of space experts in the fields of engineering, space science and solar physics to ensure that South Africa has adequate human resource to lead future space projects.274

Offiong, Etim (2022) There’s a case for Nigeria and South Africa to cooperate on outer space activities. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/theres-a-case-for-nigeria-and-south-africa-to-cooperate-on-outer-space-activities-174635 273 Onyango (2022). 274 Iderawumi (2021). 275 OECD (2021) South Africa Economic Snapshot. https://www.oecd.org/economy/south-africa-economic-snapshot/ 276 Ibid. 272

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KoreaSat5A by Space X (Adapted) Credit: Michael Seeley EQUITABLE ACCESS TO SPACE

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4. New Spacefarers

he space domain has evolved rapidly in the past decades. An expanding ecosystem of private actors is lowering the costs of space technologies with continued miniaturization,277 and high capacity of innovation.278 There has been an uptake in space programs in developing countries as technologies become more accessible, particularly with the rise of open-source models for systems, as well as entirely customizable system builds. CubeSats are well within the capabilities of most nations, due to their affordability and simplicity. Space ambitions serve as inspiration and stimulus to the next generation, particularly those entering STEM fields. A space sector promotes science and mathematics in schools and tertiary education. In general, involvement in space programs requires education investment and upskilling the workforce to develop capacity for engagement in space activities. Developing economies stand to benefit from increased participation in space programs, leading to diversification of workforces, which could have an impact on brain drains in the longer term.279

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CubeSats are well within the capabilities of most nations

Space programs are a major source of national pride. Entering the league of spacefaring nations opens opportunities and elevates a country’s status in the eyes of the world. In addition to enhancing international status, participation in space can boost national security as countries adopt their own space-based systems for military uses and national critical infrastructure. Generally, safety, security, disaster management are powerful drivers for space activity in emerging spacefaring countries. For example, in the Philippines, where typhoons are a significant issue, disaster management is a focus area for space technology development.280 Space access enables countries to pursue sovereign capabilities, reducing dependence on major spacefaring nations. Countries seek access to the space domain to safeguard their sovereignty, for example by increasing national security in handling their own communications, or deploying satellites with Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. As more countries establish space programs, there is potential for new national identities to emerge, both among the populace and as conceived by governments curating the image for international space business. There is a possibility that space programs could enable a shift from ethnic and tribal identities, towards a collective sense of national identity. This could cause

277

Lim (2018). Wrench (2019). This direct link has yet to be established in a study examining the direct effects of space program uptake on long-term workforce brain drain. 280 International Space University (2017) Aress: A Roadmap for Emerging Space States. https://isulibrary.isunet.edu/doc_num.php?explnum_id=1350 278 279

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a loss in cultural heritage in some societies, but there is also the potential for healing internal divisions and conflict. As more actors enter the space domain, there is greater potential for sharing the costs of research and development, as well as joining established space programs. Emerging space players will also have the opportunity to "leapfrog" certain technology and development phases, jumping directly to the latest technologies.281 In Myanmar, 4G cellular network services proliferated throughout the country, connecting many remote areas and generating more demand for high bandwidth.282 As more countries establish space programs, there is likely to be a general “spill over” effect, as space technologies drive technological development in other industries, such as mineral or chemical processing. The impact of the Apollo mission on the wider industry of the United States is an example of these wider longterm benefits of space programs. In general, joining space could boost the quality of technology production as national industry adopts higher quality standards and applies high-tech knowledge beyond the space domain.283

have direct applicability to terrestrial technologies.284 The concept of “spin-in” describes a process of technologies developed outside the space sector serving uses within it.285 Both of these concepts offer strong arguments for investment in space technology.

Spin-off and spin-in “Spin-off” is a process in which technologies developed specifically for space are applied to other uses. The most frequently cited example of spin-off is Memory Foam, which was developed to protect test pilots during flight. Today, Memory Foam is used in an array of household items.286 “Spin-in” technologies are developed for uses on Earth, with applicability to the space sector. For example, equipment used in the textile industry was used to solve engineering challenges in space relating to the use of long tethers.287

Spacefaring countries can also benefit from “spin-off” and “spin-in” space technologies (see box on right). “Spin-off” sees technologies developed for space usages 281

Yayboke, Erol, William Crumpler, Wiliam A. Carter (2020) The Need for a Leapfrog Strategy. CSIS. 10 April 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/need-leapfrog-strategy 282 Holmes, Mark (2020) Telcos talk Bluntly about Satellite’s Backhaul Future. Via Satellite. https://interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/july-2020/telcos-talk-bluntly-about-satellites-backhaul-future/ 283 Brichta, Michal (2021) Spin-In and Procurement Support as Key Components for Industry Development in Emerging Space Countries. 2 December 2021. Mary Ann Liebert. https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/space.2021.0014 284 Simpson, Michael (2010) Spin-Out and Spin-In in the Newest Space Age. International Space University https://iisc.im/wpcontent/uploads/2016/07/Spin-Out-and-Spin-In-Simpson.pdf 285 Ibid. 286 Kennedy Space Center (2018) NASA Spinoffs – Everyday Products from NASA. https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/blog/nasa-spinoffs 287 Simpson (2010).

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Rationales for Space Agency establishment

any countries are also looking to the space domain to meet socioeconomic development goals. In their research of the formation of new space agencies between 2014 and 2019, Knittel Kommel et al. (2020) identify six categories of space agency establishment rationale: economic, socioeconomic, coordination, centralization, geopolitical, and regulatory (see box below). Their report found that most countries established space agencies based on a combination of rationales, but the two highest scoring motivating factors among newly founded space agencies included socioeconomic and economic rationales, at 21.2% and 27.3% respectively.288

The case study analysis of this report also identifies economic and socioeconomic factors as key drivers of space ambitions among selected emerging spacefaring countries. In Saudi Arabia, economic diversification plans are underway to attract foreign investment and generate thousands of jobs.291 Space is central Vision 2030 plans for economic reform and diversification, as the country seeks to shift from a resource-based economy.292 Similarly, in the case of South Africa, the space program sits at the center of broader socioeconomic goals. The South African space program focuses on three priority areas: i) environmental resource management, ii) health, safety and security, and iii) innovation and economy.293

Six categories of rationale for space program establishment:289 ➢ Economic: Focused on generating economic growth (GDP). ➢ Socioeconomic: Prioritizing the improvement of national welfare, using space data and applications to improve governance and enhance sectors e.g. agriculture, environment. ➢ Coordination: Integrating activities across national academic, commercial, and government space sectors. ➢ Centralization: Combining dispersed government space sector activities and actors into one agency. ➢ Geopolitical: Enhancing national security, facilitating participation in the international space community, building status as a spacefaring country. ➢ Regulatory: Managing the space sector by establishing a regulatory framework, complying with international law. 290

288

Knittel Kommel, R. K., Peter, A. Puig-Hall, M., Riesbeck, L. (2020) Exploring Insights from Emerging Space agencies. https://aerospace.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020_GWU_ExploringInsights_FINAL_2nd-Edits-101920-compressed.pdf 289 Ibid. 290 Ibid. 291 Rashad (2020). 292 Space Watch (2022) Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030: A Golden Opportunity for Space?. https://spacewatch.global/2016/05/saudi-arabias-vision-2030-golden-opportunity-space-2/ 293 Feldscher (2019).

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Space is seen as a driver of development and the social and economic benefits are prioritized. Space-based systems are developed to provide solutions, for instance, tracking boats off South Africa’s shoreline to catch illegal fishing boats and drug smugglers.294 Brazil has renewed interest in space, prioritizing the economic potential for collaboration with international partners. The 2019 Technology Safeguards Agreement (TSA) between the United States and Brazil could see US companies utilize Alcântara Launch Center for international missions, which could significantly boost the national economy. Knittel Kommel et al. (2020) identify geopolitical rationales as central to space agency establishment, with 15.2% of space agencies founded between 2014 and 2019 citing this as a leading rationale.295 Nations may establish space agencies to participate in the international space community and enhance international relations.296 The emerging spacefaring countries analyzed in this report also demonstrate strong geopolitical motivators for space agency establishment, which are closely linked to wider economic and socioeconomic goals.

294 295 296

South Korea has invested heavily in the space sector, with goals to become the seventh country in the world to have its own satellite-based positioning, navigation and timing system. Already a technology leader, South Korea aims to enhance its capacity to develop advanced technologies and boost economic growth. These goals are linked to the geopolitical priorities to enhance national security and maintain the country’s defense posture on the Korean peninsula. Whatever the core rationales underlying the foundation of a space program, countries can expect wider impact on their economies and societies. As more actors look to space, it is important to consider the benefits they bring to the international spacefaring community, as well as potential risks and challenges, identifying how these can be overcome.

Feldscher (2019). Knittel Kommel et al. (2020). Ibid.

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Benefits of equitable access to space

he international space community can greatly benefit from becoming more equitable and inclusive. More space players could mean a greater number of unique geographic access points to launch payloads into orbit. Brazil’s Alcântara launch center, for example, holds considerable potential as the closest active site to the Equator, which could promise lower launch costs and fuel requirements.297 As space sectors evolve in countries around the world, they present new market opportunities in both the upstream and downstream segments of the international space economy (see box below).

Upstream and Downstream Space Economy Upstream: Research, space manufacturing, ground infrastructure equipment, instruments etc. Downstream: Data, space-dependent products, and services (communications, navigation etc.)299

For example, in addition to launch products and services, Brazil is likely to require Earth monitoring services to help mitigate climatic risks and track agricultural activities in the Amazon. Similarly, South Africa will continue to require satellite data to monitor

its shoreline.298 Markets are emerging in new countries, increasing demand for more products. A proliferation of space actors and more demand for upstream and downstream products/services could drive economies of scale, while potentially enhancing efficiency and competition in global supply chains. In 2020, Space X won a logistics contract for the NASA Lunar Gateway program, to deliver payloads aboard the large Falcon launcher. The contract is firm-fixed price, with indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity for services, guaranteeing two missions per logistics provider to a maximum value of $7 billion.300 This signifies a step forward for the Artemis program, enabling NASA to order missions for up to 12 years with a 15year performance period and the ability to add new competitive providers.301 Contracts such as these are potential gamechangers, bringing commercial competition and innovation to government programs. As more countries collaborate on space, there is also more opportunity to pool and share major costs, including procurement or research and development. New countries may find innovative uses for existing services and downstream data, which could generate major benefits and solve important problems, such as climate-related issues (see Chapter Five). In general, a larger space community could facilitate information consolidation. Climate data, disaster relief

297

Milani (2019). Feldscher (2019). ESA (2019) Measuring the Space Economy. https://space-economy.esa.int/article/34/measuring-the-space-economy 300 NASA (2020) NASA Awards Artemis Contract for Gateway Logistics Services. 27 March 2020. https://www.nasa.gov/pressrelease/nasa-awards-artemis-contract-for-gateway-logistics-services 301 Ibid. 298 299

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and mapping, and GPS emission capabilities are just some of the many areas which could potentially benefit from additional data input. An inclusive and equitable space domain is also conducive to peace and geopolitical stability, generating opportunities to develop new relationships or strengthen existing relationships between countries. A history of established defense cooperation is a key driver of strong space partnerships. South Korea’s shared military history with the United States, for example, lies at the heart of today’s space collaboration. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has an extensive track record of US defense deals. There is the risk that international cooperation is divided into “space blocs”, along the geopolitical lines of cooperation on Earth.302 Brazil highlights an example of a space partner potentially caught between the interests of Russia and the United States. Conversely, regional rivalry could help boost space competition, which may

prove evident in the case of Saudi Arabia’s regional space race with the UAE. A more inclusive space domain is likely to lead to more attention to the cultural and historical consideration of space policies, increasing awareness of the importance of space to all humankind. As more actors enter space, they are likely to seek participation in international discussions on space governance to ensure their interests are represented. More perspectives to shape international space law could lead to greater equity in space. additionally, there could be more advocates for action on common risks and threats in space, such as orbital debris. There could also be a push to use space to address climate change on Earth, for example, via environmental monitoring and enforcement. As more actors join the community and take part in space governance, peaceful dialogue between states could be enhanced in other areas besides space.

302

Ben-Itzhak, Svetla (2022) Space Blocs: The future of international cooperation in space is splitting along lines of power on Earth. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/space-blocs-the-future-of-international-cooperation-in-space-is-splitting-along-linesof-power-on-earth-180221

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Challenges of more actors in space potential source of conflict. For instance, the ongoing tensions on the Korean Peninsula have escalated with South Korea’s increased military use of space. North Korea criticizes “double standards” which permit the United States and South Korea to accelerate their weapons development, while denouncing Pyongyang’s missile tests.304

here are significant risks associated with more actors in space. An increasingly congested orbital environment is likely to lead to higher risks of collisions and damage to active satellites. Growing global dependencies on space for critical infrastructure could have larger impacts in the event of accidents or conflict in space. If there is not an active drive for interoperability, there may be a lack of standardization among space-based technologies. Satellites with different repair and maintenance requirements could require more servicing systems, which comes with a greater risk of damage and debris. Though technical standardization could facilitate end-of-life services or onorbit servicing, it is a challenge to coordinate uniformity across the international satellite industry without limiting innovation.303

Most societies depend on space-based systems, and future warfare is likely to be multi-domain.305 A growing number of actors are seeking “space high ground” to have the upper hand in future wars.306 Space dependence is becoming a source of insecurity, considering, for example, that the United States lacks a comprehensive terrestrial backup for GPS, which Russia and China possess.307 An increasingly busy space environment could escalate conflict, particularly regarding the space-dependent nuclear command, control, and communications system in some countries.

Militarization of space is a growing concern. Some actors may perceive a lower barrier to conflict in the space domain, where there are fewer human costs compared to war on Earth. Moreover, countries have different perspectives on the types of space capabilities that are considered appropriate. Perceived aggression in space is a

Actors may deploy more space-based Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) systems, which could generate uncertainty and escalate tensions. However, once positioned in space, ISR systems can be viewed freely, allowing other actors to identify specific

303

Foust, Jeff (2021) After technical demonstrations, satellite servicing grapples other issues. SpaceNews. 29 September 2021. https://spacenews.com/after-technical-demonstrations-satellite-servicing-grapples-other-issues/ 304 Yoon, Dasl and Timothy Martin (2021) South Korea Launches First Homegrown Rocket and Satellite Into Space. Wall Street journal. Accessible: https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-launches-first-homegrown-rocket-and-satellite-into-space11634815655 305 Bellasio, Jacopo Linda Slapakova, Luke Huxtable, James Black, Theodora Ogden, Livia Dewaele (2021) Innovative Technologies Shaping the 2040 Battlefield. RAND Europe. https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP68698.html 306 Rajagopalan, Rajeswari Pillai (2021) Space security: the impossible consensus between powers. Polytechnique Insights. 24 November 2021. https://www.polytechnique-insights.com/en/columns/space/space-security-the-impossible-consensus-betweenpowers/ 307 Yamamoto, Ryan and Molly McCrea (2022) Using Cyber and Space Warfare, Russia Aggression May Soon Extend Far Beyond Ukraine. CBS. 25 February 2022. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/ukraine-russia-war-cyberattacks-space-warfare/

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capabilities or reverse engineer technologies. The proliferation of anti-satellite (ASAT) technologies capable of disabling spacebased systems poses a significant risk to all actors. On 15 November 2021, Russia conducted an ASAT test on one of its old satellites, generating over 1,500 pieces of orbital debris.308 Such displays cause concern among the international community, not least due to the impact on the space environment. Many space-based systems are dual-use, which means that they can perform both civil and military functions. Dual-use ASATs generate uncertainty about the intentions of actors in space. Kinetic attacks physically disable or deorbit satellites, but the main threat could come from the cyber domain. A single non-kinetic cyber-attack could target an entire satellite network, which would otherwise require a barrage of missiles to disable.309 Cyberattacks are often underestimated in terms of their severity and impact on society. As more actors enter space, it becomes more difficult to attribute such attacks. An increasing number of perspectives are joining discussions on space governance, scientific exploration, trade, and future uses of space. However, there is potential for misperceptions to emerge, which could lead to unintended escalation. Conflicting interests could arise, particularly regarding access to orbital slots and the future use of resources in space. The impact of activities in space can be felt beyond the domain. 308

For instance, future space resource capture by dominant nations could disrupt and destabilize economies reliant on resource exports, such as iron. The emergence of space “blocs” could generate dual or multiple regimes with separate and conflicting policies and understandings of international space law.310 The Artemis Accords, led by the United States, sets out an understanding of international law regarding future resource extraction which could conflict with alternative interpretations (see Chapter Two).

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A "race to the bottom" on regulation and standards could lead to a “tragedy of the commons”

”

Existing frameworks, such as UN COPUOS (see Chapter Two), offer promise, but the lack of sufficient regulation and oversight mechanisms means that there would be a need to create such structures, a colossal task. A larger number of actors and interests makes diplomacy time-consuming and consensus difficult to achieve. Disagreement already exists between the major spacefaring powers about the future of space governance.311 There is the risk that major space actors act as "gatekeepers" and block new entrants to the domain to protect their interests. There is also potential for science to lose out to industry in space, in the pursuit of

Bugos, Shannon (2021) Russian ASAT Test Creates Massive Debris. Arms Control Association. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-12/news/russian-asat-test-creates-massive-debris 309 Erwin, Sandra (2021) DoD space agency: Cyber attacks, not missiles, are the most worrisome threat to satellites. SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/dod-space-agency-cyber-attacks-not-missiles-are-the-most-worrisome-threat-to-satellites/ 310 Ben-Itzhak (2022). 311 Rajagopalan (2021).

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commercial interests. A "race to the bottom" on regulation and standards could lead to a “tragedy of the commons” in which the space environment is degraded without adequate checks on space activities.312 By the time some countries enter space, debris could become a significant problem. The “Kessler Syndrome” predicts that debris could multiply exponentially, which could render many positions in LEO or GEO unusable.313 It can be difficult to communicate to publics the importance of space. There is often pressure for governments to prioritize

pressing issues on Earth over funding for space programs. Some communities may be against the use of space for cultural or religious reasons. For instance, mega constellations can negatively impact indigenous use of space and stars for astronomy and navigation.314 The environmental and economic impact of space programs could pose a challenge to public support, considering that many space activities generate pollution on Earth. As more actors enter the domain, growing public awareness could challenge uses and exploration of space.

Silverstein, Benjamin and Ankit Panda (2021) Space is a Great Commons, It’s time to treat it as such. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 9 March 2021. https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/03/09/space-is-great-commons.-it-s-time-to-treat-it-assuch-pub-84018 313 Retter et al. (2022). 314 Finnegan, Ciara (2022) Indigenous Interests in Outer Space: Addressing the Conflict of Increasing Satellite Numbers with Indigenous Astronomy Practices. Laws 11(2), 26. https://www.mdpi.com/2075-471X/11/2/26 312

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Several Tiny Satellites by NASA (Adapted) Credit: NASA EQUITABLE ACCESS TO SPACE

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5. Recommendations Most aspects of our day-to-day lives depend on space-based systems, from television and radio to internet access and GPS. Space is central to national security and critical infrastructure and plays an essential role in furthering socioeconomic development goals. Countries developing their space sectors will need to consider many economic, industry and societal impacts.

Establish a clear national space policy/strategy Ensure steady space funding Invest in human capital Specialize in niche technology areas

This chapter provides recommendations for policymakers in countries seeking access to space. The findings are compiled through literature review and consultation with industry leaders, academics, and policy experts in interviews. In addition, the case study analysis of four emerging spacefaring countries (Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, South Africa) in Chapter Three of this report provides additional insight and good practices.

Balance public/commercial space activities Foster international collaboration Engage with space law and governance

Though there is no singular blueprint for establishing a thriving space sector, several key themes emerged throughout the research for this objective. The overarching recommendations are as outlined:

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Establish a clear national space policy/strategy Key recommendations ➢

Make space policy/strategy and funding commitments publicly accessible.

➢

Link space to other national goals and priorities in strategy/policy documents.

➢

Produce regular updates to document developments and record lessons.

➢

Consider the potential for separate institutions, documents, and responsibilities for civil and military space activities.

pace programs signal national prestige and scientific and commercial significance, while projecting geopolitical and military power. There is a need for a clear national policy or strategy document to express space-related priorities and ambitions.315 This can go some way towards garnering domestic political support to fund space activity, while signaling intent to other countries. 316 Initially, Australia’s space program lacked defined rationales for space. With an interest in space spanning from the 1960s, Australia had the potential to become an early regional or global space leader.

However, an inability to capture the rationales for space activity in official policy at the time saw a decline in space capabilities.317 The 2008 Senate Report “Lost in Space” revealed some of these shortcomings, and in 2011 the government published a formal space strategy and in 2013, its space policy.318 In order to become competitive in an increasingly busy domain, emerging spacefaring countries should establish core purposes and rationales for space activity, setting tangible near- and long-term ambitions. Some countries choose to make their national policy or strategy publicly accessible, which ensures transparency, particularly regarding public spending.319 A publicly available strategy/policy document with annually released funding objectives could help countries express achievable concrete goals. These goals do not necessarily have to be technology related. Important space objectives include the formation of regulatory frameworks and institutions, signing the relevant international agreements, and joining multilateral fora. It is advised that governments employ a “SMART” approach to objective setting, identifying goals that are specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and timebound.320

315

Secure World Foundation (2017) Handbook for New Actors in Space Ed. Christopher D. Johnson . https://swfound.org/handbook/ 316 Ibid. 317 International Space University (2017). 318 Ibid. 319 Secure World Foundation (2017). 320 McNeil, R (2018) Five tips for effective objectives setting. UK Civil Service Blog. https://civilservice.blog.gov.uk/2018/04/26/fivetips-for-effective-objectives-setting/

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Clearly expressing these objectives in strategy/policy documents available to the public ensures transparency, which is critical towards winning public support for space-related public spending. Most importantly, clear space objectives and funding commitments are likely to inspire the next generation of space scientists, innovators and policymakers. In space strategy/policy documents it is important to link space to other national goals and priorities. Knittel Kommel et al. (2020) identify six categories of rationale for space program establishment: Economic, Socioeconomic, Coordination, Centralization, Geopolitical and Regulatory (see Chapter Four). Expressing the rationale for the space program and linking to these broader goals in other areas can help ensure that space remains prioritized in the long term, making it harder to justify short-term budget cuts.

and international lessons and integrating them into updated space policy/strategy documents can help ensure the long-term success of programs. Following the formation of the US Space Force, more emerging spacefaring countries are noted the importance of having a separate civil agency and military space command, with clearly defined roles and responsibilities for each. In countries such as South Korea, where national security is a key driver of space-based activity, divisions between civil and military space could help maintain balance. Countries with newly established space sectors may not require two separate civil and military space organizations from the outset. It is also worth noting that establishing a separate military space command sends a signal to the international community about a nation’s space ambitions, potentially generating tensions.

To some degree, policy/strategy documents will need to remain flexible to adapt to a rapidly changing domain and integrate lessons learned. It is important that governments document learning throughout the process of space program establishment, while learning from international partners. Capturing national

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Ensure steady space funding when space was deprioritized in public spending.322 In the late 1990s, the Brazilian space program initiated development of the VLS-1, a launch vehicle designed to deliver 350 kg payloads into low Earth orbit (LEO) from Alcântara launch site on the Northern Atlantic coast.323 However, investment in the program faltered, which combined with a series of errors led to the failure of two launches in flight, and a third rocket exploding in 2003 and killing 21 people.324

Key recommendations ➢

Improve "space literacy" among political leaders and decision makers.

➢

Simplify administrative processes and build strong institutions.

➢

Implement long term space funding commitments of 5-10 years.

➢

Ensure long term planning and transparency.

Space funding is likelier to remain steady, if the economic and socioeconomic impacts of the space program are evident to the wider population. In major spacefaring countries, such as the United States, space is directly tied to local economic value and jobs in otherwise rural communities. Generating awareness of the benefits of space can stabilize public spending. There are other considerations to take into account, such as the environmental impact of industry expansion, or the effects on vulnerable communities. Prioritizing sustainability and positive socioeconomic impacts is key to public support for space programs.

pace programs require steady funding to remain viable. Unfortunately, the space sector is often one of the first areas to suffer from funding cuts in times of economic hardship. Erratic funding is likely to have an outsized impact on projects, with the added risk of driving away technical talent and foreign investment. In the long term, the risk of losing highly trained and educated workers could lead to greater economic losses than the initial funding cuts sought to compensate.

Improving "space literacy" among political leaders and decision makers could ensure an understanding of the importance of space use and exploration. A recent Australian policy options paper identified the need to implement bespoke national training for government employees to enhance space literacy and understand the intersection with

The Alcântara tragedy in Brazil serves as a reminder of the need for stable funding of national space programs.321 Brazil’s national space program experienced unstable funding, relating to economic downturns,

321

International Space University (2017). Ibid. 323 Melo & Vasconcellos (2020). 324 Space Daily (2003). 322

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z 61 their department.325 Input from the academic sector is key to delivering a range of spacerelated courses across government departments. In South Africa, at the time of the space program’s design, the space agency consulted government departments to identify their priorities for a space program, as these departments were to use the satellite data to inform decisionmaking.326 To ensure steady space funding, there is generally a need to strengthen institutions and ensure that these are not impeded by excessive bureaucracy and red tape. Administrative simplification can be achieved by process reengineering, digitalization, as well as adopting a “whole-of-government” approach.327 It is important for all government departments to address issues and understand how their work links to the space program.

Steady funding requires long term planning to ensure a degree of certainty and stability in space programs. Longer term funding commitments of at least 5-10 years could prevent disruption to programs. In Saudi Arabia, long-term funding commitments include investing $2.1 billion in space by 2030. These space objectives are tied to wider socioeconomic development goals as part of Vision 2030, and include concrete space objectives, such as training young people in STEM subjects, and developing low-cost satellite launch and manufacturing.328 Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and timebound (SMART) objectives that are tied to long-term funding commitments could produce tangible outcomes, which makes it harder to justify cutting these budgets.329 SMART space objectives could include nontechnological goals, such as “training 20 new space engineers by 2030”. It is recommended that governments express their space objectives in publicly available strategy/policy documents. Transparency in space funding could generate support, though it is important that the public understands the benefits and uses of space.

325

Steer, Cassandra (2021) Australia as a Space Power: Combining Civil, Defence and Diplomatic Efforts. Policy Options Paper No. 19, May 2021. Australian National University. https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/nsc_crawford_anu_edu_au/202105/nsc_policy_options_paper_space_power_web.pdf 326 Feldscher (2019). 327 OECD (2006) Cutting red Tape: National Strategies for Administrative Simplification. https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatorypolicy/38103089.pdf 328 Pons, Juan (2020). 329 SANSA (2022b) Projects & Partnerships. Accessible https://www.sansa.org.za/projects-partnerships/

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Invest in human capital Key recommendations ➢ Treat the public as space stakeholders and end users. ➢ Invest in education at all levels, offering remote study options to increase equality of opportunity. ➢ Ensure key local employers identify skill gaps and validate qualifications. ➢ Build tacit knowledge through international exchanges. ➢ Encourage the return of experts through incentives and start-up investments. uman capital requires extensive investment to ensure successful space programs. Investing in education and training is essential towards developing high-tech and niche capabilities that appeal to international markets. Steady research funding and a range of educational programs at all levels can also help reduce brain drain among highly trained specialists, who otherwise may pursue opportunities in other countries.330

Raising public awareness of the uses of space and its importance to the economy, society and national security is a key aspect of human capital investment. This can be achieved by treating the public as end users and stakeholders for space activity.331 The European Space Agency (ESA)

implemented this approach in 2016, when it organized a citizens’ debate on space for Europe, in which 2,000 citizens discussed the use of space and the role of ESA.332 Such initiatives can help guide priorities, while generating support among the public. It Is important to enable discourse at the local, national and international levels. There are many existing open-source resources that can be freely used to engage with communities at all levels. In Brazil, the Mars Society at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte uses scientific NASA and ESA public tools to promote learning about Space. The group uses social media platforms, such as Facebook, as well as messaging service WhatsApp to generate a sense of community, promote public outreach and support international space collaboration.333 Support for initiatives such as these may contribute to knowledge sharing and greater support for national space initiatives and international collaboration. Art and culture is central to developing public awareness of space. Art installations, writing competitions, visual media and music performance are just some of the ways in which space can be brought to the forefront of the public imagination. Before citizens pursue education or careers in space, they need to be able to visualize their role in space. Artists, musicians and storytellers are not expensive, and a little funding can go a

330

International Space University (2017). Ibid. 332 Ibid. 333 Rezende, Julio, Alvara Oliveira, Davi Souza and Dalmo Santos (2020) Motivating for Space in Brazil. ICES. https://ttuir.tdl.org/bitstream/handle/2346/86489/ICES-2020-444.pdf?sequence=1 331

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long way in building public awareness and support. Longer term initiatives have a more lasting impact than one-off exhibitions or events. In addition to raising public awareness, there is a need to invest in education at all levels: primary, secondary, and tertiary. A successful space sector requires experts and skilled technicians, which drives the need for tertiary education opportunities in space-related fields.334 Gender inequality, ethnic/religious conflict and rural-urban divides present significant challenges to space programs. In Saudi Arabia, a number of domestic and international scholarships offer support to talented students from rural areas. Additionally, the Saudi government invested in e-learning to help students overcome socioeconomic barriers. In 2011 the government opened the Saudi Electronic University (SEU), a fully online university offering a range of science and technology programs.335 Raising the level of Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) education is essential, but there is also a need for expertise in other areas. Space law and policy knowledge is important for countries to play a role in space governance. In South Africa, several academic institutions offer specialized courses for space engineering and policy.336 Integrating the essentials of space policy or business with STEM programs may help space sector development. At the University of Luxembourg, interdisciplinary postgraduate programs in Space Studies aim to develop

technological and business skills, which are required to boost the country’s space capabilities.337 A number of crosscutting technologies have strong applicability to space, including additive manufacturing, mineral processing, infrastructure development and agriculture. Solving local or national problems, for example, by developing “dry” cement which utilizes less water could have wide uses in drought-prone countries, as well as future uses for space-based infrastructure, including lunar habitats. Alternatively, there may be significant overlaps between future uses of space and major national industries, such as resource extraction. It is important to consider existing national strengths and requirements, and their applicability to space. Above all, it is important to ensure that qualifications have been validated by major local employers. An understanding of skill gaps and industry needs is required and education programs, secondments and exchanges should be tailored accordingly. It is advised that data is collected to track the need for skills and to adapt programs according to changing requirements. Tacit knowledge is highly important in the space domain and this comes from experience. Student exchanges, foreign research and work experience in major spacefaring countries is essential, and the case studies provided in Chapter Three of this report highlight the importance of such programs. However, it is equally important to

334

International Space University (2017). Almalki, Faris & Marios Angelidis (2016) Considering near space platforms to close the coverage gap in wireless communications: The case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7821614 336 Space Generation Advisory Council (2022) National Points of South Africa. https://spacegeneration.org/regions/africa/southafrica 337 Deloitte (2021) Luxembourg, a rising star in the space industry. https://www2.deloitte.com/lu/en/pages/technology/articles/luxembourg-space-industry-companies.html 335

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ensure that these programs are accessible to applicants from all segments of society. To ensure a transparent and fair intake process for international programs, programs could implement blind selection processes, undertaking these at a third-party institution. While it is common for postgraduate students and workers to seek out opportunities abroad, it should be ensured that the knowledge they acquire comes back. Various policies and incentives could be implemented to ensure backflow of tacit knowledge. Members of the diaspora could be encouraged to retire to their home country to share their experience and knowledge. Additionally, the growth of national space industry could be prioritized by encouraging startups and university spinoff companies. Barriers to the return of knowledge frequently arise in the form of bureaucracy, red tape, corruption, and the inability to possess dual citizenship.

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Specialize in niche technology areas Key recommendations ➢ Implement policies that attract international space business. ➢ Take into consideration existing national capabilities, industry, and gaps. ➢ Consider software development opportunities, or innovative downstream uses of space-based data collection. ➢ Weigh the opportunities and challenges of import substitution in the space sector. ➢ Solve local problems by developing niches in crosscutting technologies (e.g., additive manufacturing or mineral processing) with strong applicability to space.

merging players may specialize in niche areas in space to increase their impact in the international space market. Beyond the traditional space applications for communication, Earth observation, and navigation, there are many emerging markets for new actors to focus on, from asteroid mining to space tourism, and robotic satellite servicing.338 Generally, the economic potential of a country in space is less constrained by factors such as size and geography than on Earth. For example, the space roles and ambitions of geographically smaller global players, such as Luxembourg and the UAE 338 339 340

are outsized, particularly in their specialized areas. SES, one of the largest satellite communication companies is partly based in Luxembourg, a country with a population of less than a million. National support for innovative private companies and start-ups significantly contributes to the country’s status as a global space hub. Beyond space funding, policymaking has been instrumental in carving out a space niche for Luxembourg. Luxembourg became the second country in the world to legislate on space mining, encouraging this emerging area of the space sector.339 Countries may seek to implement policies and regulatory frameworks that attract international space business, though it is important that there is not a “race to the bottom” in terms of deregulation. In the pursuit of specialization, it is important to consider the country’s existing capabilities, while identifying gaps in the global space industry waiting to be filled. It is also essential to ensure that government space activities do not compete directly with existing commercial activities in the country.340 In addition to hardware, countries may pursue software development opportunities, or provide innovative services in the downstream use of space-based data collection. Existing remote sensing systems gather an array of data that could be used for new applications to solve a range of problems, from agriculture to tracking the poaching of wildlife. Countries may find new ways to utilize existing technology, as a

Kommel et al. (2020). International Space University (2017). Kommel et al. (2020).

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service that can be exported to other nations. As an alternative to specializing in niches, governments may consider import substitution – restricting the import of space goods and services – to boost their emerging space economies. As countries establish their space sectors, they may seek to replace television and cellular providers from abroad with their own services. As well as boosting national capabilities and expertise, such initiatives could help achieve economic diversification, generating economic growth.341 Additionally, national security could benefit from sovereign space capabilities in certain areas, such as Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) or critical national infrastructure.

Countries can also prioritize solving local problems by developing niches in crosscutting technologies such as additive manufacturing. In regions where there is little access to water, dry additive manufacturing and construction could greatly benefit infrastructure and development. This is also an area with strong applicability to space. Other niches may include vertical farming, or mineral processing, which may become increasingly important in future uses of space.

Import substitution presents potential tradeoffs regarding costs and service quality. Moreover, import substitution may not produce exportable goods or services, as rather than developing niche systems, the effort goes into recreating an existing product that is already being exported by another provider. Rather than reproducing an existing capability, the money could be invested into a new system that provides additional services. There is therefore a need to carefully assess the opportunities and challenges presented by import substitution the space sector.

Adewale, Aregbeshola R. (2017) Import substitution industrialisation and economic growth – Evidence from the group of BRICS countries. Future Business Journal 3(2) December 2017, 138-158. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2314721017300713 341

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Balance public/commercial space activities Key recommendations ➢ Consider which capabilities should be developed by the public or private sectors. ➢ Implement transparent and fair competitions for contracts. ➢ Generate opportunities for small businesses and startups. ➢ Ensure that policy frameworks are agile and future proof. ➢ Buy spots on launches, offering them in competitions.

he relationship between governments and private space companies is significant and dual-faceted: governments are both regulators and customers. There is a need to sustain a healthy balance to ensure that the commercial sector remains competitive and agile. Moreover, governments need to be aware of the effects of their engagement with the private sector on the development of space industry. There is generally no single optimum model that fits all economies. Some space markets will require more government intervention than others. However, it is important for the government to be informed about space to make good choices as a regulator and customer. In some cases, it is preferable for governments to develop certain capabilities

342 343

themselves, for example in the case of infrastructure essential to national security, or certain services that do not exist in the private sector.342 Developing government capabilities allows full control over the project and any downstream outputs, such as satellite data. This also allows the establishment of space activities which directly address the needs of the population, beyond the most financially lucrative projects. While government-developed space capabilities hold considerable benefits, not least allowing the government to remain engaged with current technology, drawbacks include a lack of transparency, as well as potential cost and efficiency challenges compared to fully private enterprise.343 Private enterprise remains central to establishing a thriving space industry. The government, as a customer, is required to establish transparent and fair contracting approaches to foster market competition and cost-effective and efficient projects. Building up private enterprise is also contingent on ensuring that the population and government recognizes the importance of investments in the space sector. Start-ups and university spin-off companies are crucial towards maintaining a health space industry ecosystem. Such innovation requires small grant opportunities and seed funding initiatives, as well as cutting back bureaucratic barriers to founding small businesses. To help minimize risks, companies likely also require clear models and roadmaps in the form of design documentation, open-source

Secure World Foundation (2017). Secure World Foundation (2017).

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hardware/software, and clear pathways to launch. It is generally recommended that governmental and commercial policy and regulatory frameworks for private space enterprise are designed to be agile and technologically neutral, to ensure that they are future-proofed and remain relevant with technological innovation.344 There needs to be tolerance for failure, as this contributes to learning. It is essential to document learning, sharing these lessons across the public and private sectors.

Governments can buy spaces on launches for small payloads at relatively low prices, starting at just $1,300 per pound of payload.345 Purchasing blocks of these launch spots a few years in advance may not necessarily require detailed payload capability specifications, other than weight. Governments could offer these spots to the right domestic projects at no cost. Commercial or academic teams would be encouraged to compete for these spots, building up knowledge and experience in the process.

It is also important that the principles of peaceful, inclusive and sustainable use of space lie at the core of decision making, to preserve the space environment for generations to come.

344

Kommel et al. (2020). Sheetz, Michael (2022) SpaceX raises prices for rocket launches and Starlink satellite internet as inflation hits raw materials. CNBC. 23 March 2022. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/spacex-raises-prices-for-launches-and-starlink-due-to-inflation. 345

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Foster international collaboration Key recommendations ➢ Weigh the pros and cons of multilateral, regional and bilateral frameworks. ➢ Prioritize transparent competition processes, the free use of space data, and the exchange of knowledge and best practices. ➢ Consider the strategic use of offsets in the space sector.

nternational space cooperation is essential to most space programs. Cooperation can take various forms, ranging from multilateral cooperation at the international or regional levels, to bilateral cooperation with individual countries. Countries may formalize relationships by issuing joint declarations or statements, or by signing agreements to cooperate on space programs or share data.346 Multilateral space cooperation provides the opportunity to spread the costs and risks of large-scale projects across a wide range of parties, enabling the participation of countries that would otherwise be unable to undertake such initiatives. However, the more parties involved in a project, the higher the cost of the overall project, as the complexities and inefficiencies increase. Nonetheless, the individual cost for each country is likely to reduce.

346 347

The benefit of multilateral programs is that it is difficult for governments to unilaterally cancel them in times of economic downturn. When there are several parties involved in space programs, governments may choose to maintain their commitments to avoid tarnishing their international reputation. A space partner nation cancelling its funding commitment to a multilateral program could have longer term diplomatic and economic implications. Similarly, on bilateral programs where there are only two partners, if one country withdraws, the other is also forced to heavily adapt, or forego the program. Although more partners offer more access to skills and resources, there is added complexity in large multilateral programs. Partners from around the world are likely to have disparate requirements, time zones and languages, which can complicate cooperation. If multiple countries are involved in designing specifications, development, manufacturing, launch and operating, it is hard for the program to remain flexible, particularly if there is a need to pivot technologically. Moreover, decision making is bound to be slower the more partners are involved in a project. It can be easier to build close relationships with a smaller group of like-minded countries. Countries with similar interests or experiencing common regional threats may be natural space partners, choosing to pool resources for specific space capabilities, such as maritime surveillance. Countries in the Latin America and Caribbean region prioritize bilateral and regional cooperation to extend limited resources, and support strategic and political goals. 347

Secure World Foundation (2017). Secure World Foundation (2017).

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Though there is no single optimum approach, it is generally recommended that in multilateral cooperation workshare is awarded based on the companies best able to deliver. While it can be tempting for countries to demand a certain number of contracts in exchange for their support of a multilateral program, this has the potential to hinder future cooperation if their companies are unable to deliver to the required standard. Instead, countries should insist on transparency in competition processes, the free use of space data, sharing best practices, and exchanging knowledge.348

In bilateral arrangements, countries may seek to leverage access to their markets in exchange for wider benefits to spur economic development. In defense trade, “offsets” involve a range of industrial compensation arrangements required by governments as a condition of the acquisition of foreign goods and services.349 Such compensation may take the form of investments, co-production, sub-contracting, purchases, technology transfer or training to benefit local companies and the national economy, and to generate long-term outcomes in terms of workforce, education and industry.350 The strategic use of offsets in the space sector could deliver significant benefits to emerging space markets, but there is a need for clear regulation to prevent corruption, and ensure that offsets are directed to areas that will prove the most beneficial in the long term.

348

Kommel et al. (2020). US Bureau of Industry and Security (2022) Offsets in Defense Trade. US Department of Commerce. https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/other-areas/strategic-industries-and-economic-security-sies/offsets-in-defense-trade 350 US Bureau of Industry and Security (2020) Code of Federal Regulations Title 16, Vol. 2. Part 701. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CFR-2020-title15-vol2/pdf/CFR-2020-title15-vol2-part701.pdf 349

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Engage with space law and governance Key recommendations ➢ Join UN space treaties and participate in international fora. ➢ Advocate for good behaviors in space and help shape customary international law. ultilateral cooperation in space is commonly conducted through forums such as the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) and the International Telecommunication Union. Participation in these frameworks is fundamental for spacefaring nations to exercise leadership and ensure their interests are represented, as well as exchanging information about space activities with other spacefarers.

It is important that emerging countries sign the relevant treaties to signal that they are committed to peaceful exploration and following the rule of law in space. Joining UN space treaties demonstrates an understanding of the global space landscape, commitment to scientific space advancement, and responsibility for the conduct of space activities.351 These treaties also require governments to establish national legislative frameworks for space, providing additional legal certainty to the growing number of actors in the space domain. 352

351 352 353

There is scope for emerging countries to become significant contributors to international space governance. There is a need for strong leadership to regulate the space domain. The US, Russia and China, though the largest spacefaring countries, carry geopolitical “baggage” to play this role. There is potentially a need for "honest brokers", who have the diplomatic acumen to mediate disagreements, ease relations and promote good behaviors. There are promising “stewards” on Earth, countries that may play a small role in space but demonstrate good governance and prioritize issues such as environmental protection and sustainability. Countries with such a positive track record may have a small presence in space but could nonetheless be well-placed to lead the way to advocate for good behaviors in space. Austria is an example of a nation with a relatively small space sector demonstrating strong involvement international space governance. The country chaired COPUOS from 1957 to 1996, with the UNOOSA headquarters moving to Vienna in 1993. Austria’s strong involvement with COPUOS has built the country’s role as a leader in space governance.353 It is important that emerging players in space advocate for good behaviors in space and ensure their interests are also taken into consideration. Smaller countries and those with no existing space program can still hold sway in the space community through collective action and making their voices heard. Chapter Two of this report analyzes the international legal framework, identifying two significant obstacles to space

International Space University (2017). Ibid. Ibid.

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accessibility among emerging spacefarers: the occupation of slots in geostationary orbit (GEO) and the future of resource extraction in space. On both of these fronts, newcomers can engage with space governance. There is an opportunity for countries to band together and utilize existing regulatory frameworks to protect their interests in space. Countries may collaborate to form a “spectrum bloc”, by refusing to sell spectrum granted by the ITU, thus retaining their portion of orbital slots for future use. Additionally, countries can use their collective voices to shape customary international law to deter major spacefaring countries from acting in destructive or selfinterested ways.

Customary international law is a key source of international law and consists of two elements: i) state practice and ii) opinion juris, states’ understandings of their legal obligations.354 The crystallization process of customary international law is important and has the potential to be shaped by various actors. In the maritime domain, small coastal states took a prominent role in advocating for their rights over marine resources and exploration within the exclusive economic zones prescribed by the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).355 Space is another domain in which countries can insist on representation and raise objection to any state practices that impede on their long-term interests. With enough consistent objection, it would be difficult for select major spacefaring states to ensure their objectives solidify into customary international law.

354

Alcala, Ronald (2021) Opinio juris and the Essential Role of States. Lieber Institute, West Point. 11 February 2021. https://lieber.westpoint.edu/opinio-juris-essential-role-states/ 355 World Ocean Review (2010) Law of the Sea. WOR 1 Living with the Oceans: A Report on the state of the World’s Oceans. https://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/law-of-the-sea/a-constitution-for-the-seas/

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Annex Table 1: Workshop Participants Name

Organization

Group

Kevin Hubbard

Arizona State University

Group 1

Eric Stribling

Arizona State University

Group 3

Anonymous

Arizona State University

Group 3

Lance Gharavi

Arizona State University

Group 2

Robert Gray Bracknell

NATO HQ SACT

Group 2

Bruce McClintock

RAND Corporation

Group 1

Anonymous

RAND Corporation

Group 3

Douglas Ligor

RAND Corporation

Group 2

Namrata Goswami

Independent

Group 3

Anonymous

Group 1

Anonymous

Group 1

Anonymous

Group 1

Anonymous

Group 2

Anonymous

Group 2

Anonymous

Group 3

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Organization

Lance Gharavi

Arizona State University

Kevin Hubbard

Arizona State University

Mann Virdee

RAND Europe

Namrata Goswami

Independent

Joseph Landon

Lockheed Martin

Anonymous

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Equitable Access to Space- Interplanetary Fellow final report

Articles inside

iv. Specialize in niche technology areas

v. Balance public/commercial space activities

vi. Foster international collaboration

iii. Invest in human capital

ii. Ensure steady space funding

i. Establish a clear national space policy/strategy

5. Recommendations

Challenges of more actors in space

South Africa

4. New Spacefarers

Saudi Arabia

Rationales for Space Agency establishment

South Korea

Brazil

Benefits of equitable access to space

3. Case Study Analysis

International Space Law

Geostationary Orbit

Objectives & study scope

2. International Legal Framework

New spacefarers

Methodology

The way forward

1. Introduction