Challenges of more actors in space

There are significant risks associated with more actors in space. An increasingly congested orbital environment is likely to lead to higher risks of collisions and damage to active satellites. Growing global dependencies on space for critical infrastructure could have larger impacts in the event of accidents or conflict in space. If there is not an active drive for interoperability, there may be a lack of standardization among space-based technologies. Satellites with different repair and maintenance requirements could require more servicing systems, which comes with a greater risk of damage and debris. Though technical standardization could facilitate end-of-life services or onorbit servicing, it is a challenge to coordinate uniformity across the international satellite industry without limiting innovation.303

Militarization of space is a growing concern. Some actors may perceive a lower barrier to conflict in the space domain, where there are fewer human costs compared to war on Earth. Moreover, countries have different perspectives on the types of space capabilities that are considered appropriate. Perceived aggression in space is a potential source of conflict. For instance, the ongoing tensions on the Korean Peninsula have escalated with South Korea’s increased military use of space. North Korea criticizes “double standards” which permit the United States and South Korea to accelerate their weapons development, while denouncing Pyongyang’s missile tests.304

Most societies depend on space-based systems, and future warfare is likely to be multi-domain.305 A growing number of actors are seeking “space high ground” to have the upper hand in future wars.306 Space dependence is becoming a source of insecurity, considering, for example, that the United States lacks a comprehensive terrestrial backup for GPS, which Russia and China possess.307 An increasingly busy space environment could escalate conflict, particularly regarding the space-dependent nuclear command, control, and communications system in some countries.

Actors may deploy more space-based Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) systems, which could generate uncertainty and escalate tensions. However, once positioned in space, ISR systems can be viewed freely, allowing other actors to identify specific

303 Foust, Jeff (2021) After technical demonstrations, satellite servicing grapples other issues. SpaceNews. 29 September 2021. https://spacenews.com/after-technical-demonstrations-satellite-servicing-grapples-other-issues/ 304 Yoon, Dasl and Timothy Martin (2021) South Korea Launches First Homegrown Rocket and Satellite Into Space. Wall Street journal. Accessible: https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-launches-first-homegrown-rocket-and-satellite-into-space11634815655 305 Bellasio, Jacopo Linda Slapakova, Luke Huxtable, James Black, Theodora Ogden, Livia Dewaele (2021) Innovative Technologies Shaping the 2040 Battlefield. RAND Europe. https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP68698.html 306 Rajagopalan, Rajeswari Pillai (2021) Space security: the impossible consensus between powers. Polytechnique Insights. 24 November 2021. https://www.polytechnique-insights.com/en/columns/space/space-security-the-impossible-consensus-betweenpowers/ 307 Yamamoto, Ryan and Molly McCrea (2022) Using Cyber and Space Warfare, Russia Aggression May Soon Extend Far Beyond Ukraine. CBS. 25 February 2022. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/ukraine-russia-war-cyberattacks-space-warfare/

capabilities or reverse engineer technologies.

The proliferation of anti-satellite (ASAT) technologies capable of disabling spacebased systems poses a significant risk to all actors. On 15 November 2021, Russia conducted an ASAT test on one of its old satellites, generating over 1,500 pieces of orbital debris.308 Such displays cause concern among the international community, not least due to the impact on the space environment. Many space-based systems are dual-use, which means that they can perform both civil and military functions. Dual-use ASATs generate uncertainty about the intentions of actors in space.

Kinetic attacks physically disable or deorbit satellites, but the main threat could come from the cyber domain. A single non-kinetic cyber-attack could target an entire satellite network, which would otherwise require a barrage of missiles to disable.309 Cyberattacks are often underestimated in terms of their severity and impact on society. As more actors enter space, it becomes more difficult to attribute such attacks.

An increasing number of perspectives are joining discussions on space governance, scientific exploration, trade, and future uses of space. However, there is potential for misperceptions to emerge, which could lead to unintended escalation. Conflicting interests could arise, particularly regarding access to orbital slots and the future use of resources in space. The impact of activities in space can be felt beyond the domain. For instance, future space resource capture by dominant nations could disrupt and destabilize economies reliant on resource exports, such as iron.

The emergence of space “blocs” could generate dual or multiple regimes with separate and conflicting policies and understandings of international space law.310 The Artemis Accords, led by the United States, sets out an understanding of international law regarding future resource extraction which could conflict with alternative interpretations (see Chapter Two).

Existing frameworks, such as UN COPUOS (see Chapter Two), offer promise, but the lack of sufficient regulation and oversight mechanisms means that there would be a need to create such structures, a colossal task. A larger number of actors and interests makes diplomacy time-consuming and consensus difficult to achieve. Disagreement already exists between the major spacefaring powers about the future of space governance.311 There is the risk that major space actors act as "gatekeepers" and block new entrants to the domain to protect their interests.

There is also potential for science to lose out to industry in space, in the pursuit of

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308 Bugos, Shannon (2021) Russian ASAT Test Creates Massive Debris. Arms Control Association. es https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-12/news/russian-asat-test-creates-massive-debris 309 Erwin, Sandra (2021) DoD space agency: Cyber attacks, not missiles, are the most worrisome threat to satellites. SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/dod-space-agency-cyber-attacks-not-missiles-are-the-most-worrisome-threat-to-satellites/ 310 Ben-Itzhak (2022). 311 Rajagopalan (2021).

EQUITABLE ACCESS TO SPACE in INTERPLANETARY INITIATIVE th

A "race to the bottom" on regulation and standards could lead to a “tragedy of the commons” ”

commercial interests. A "race to the bottom" on regulation and standards could lead to a “tragedy of the commons” in which the space environment is degraded without adequate checks on space activities.312 By the time some countries enter space, debris could become a significant problem. The “Kessler Syndrome” predicts that debris could multiply exponentially, which could render many positions in LEO or GEO unusable.313

It can be difficult to communicate to publics the importance of space. There is often pressure for governments to prioritize pressing issues on Earth over funding for space programs. Some communities may be against the use of space for cultural or religious reasons. For instance, mega constellations can negatively impact indigenous use of space and stars for astronomy and navigation.314 The environmental and economic impact of space programs could pose a challenge to public support, considering that many space activities generate pollution on Earth. As more actors enter the domain, growing public awareness could challenge uses and exploration of space.

312 Silverstein, Benjamin and Ankit Panda (2021) Space is a Great Commons, It’s time to treat it as such. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 9 March 2021. https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/03/09/space-is-great-commons.-it-s-time-to-treat-it-assuch-pub-84018 313 Retter et al. (2022). 314 Finnegan, Ciara (2022) Indigenous Interests in Outer Space: Addressing the Conflict of Increasing Satellite Numbers with Indigenous Astronomy Practices. Laws 11(2), 26. https://www.mdpi.com/2075-471X/11/2/26