Uppermost, was African Swine Fever (ASF), which had a devastating effect on China, which has most of the world’s pigs. Not surprisingly, ASF caused a staggering drop-off in feed sales to China (around 11%). Global data indicates feed production by species as: broilers 28 percent; pigs 24 percent; layers 14 percent; dairy 12 percent; beef 10 percent; other species six percent; aquaculture four percent; and pets two percent. Predominant growth came from the layer, broiler, aqua and pet feed sectors.
Megatrends
Currently, the world consumes more pork than poultry, but Food Futurist Jack Bobo predicts that a seismic shift in feed sales will soon take place as we hit a point at which poultry will overtake pork production. Part of this will be caused by the difficulty smaller pig farms (such as in China) will find in its efforts to restock after ASF. Meanwhile geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing trade war between the USA and China are further disrupting factors. However, difficulties in one region/food group can cause opportunities for others. This could lead to countries such as Latin America becoming big winners. But while pork has serious problems, other areas such as poultry, aquafeed and pet feed continue to grow.
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Future concerns
by Vaughn Entwistle, Managing Editor, International Aquafeed
n 27 January 2020, Alltech held its annual evaluation of compound feed production for 2020. The event, which was hosted at Alltech’s Kentucky Headquarters, is the most complete of its kind, and draws upon data from more than 140 countries and approximately 30,000 feed mills. The survey was hosted by Alltech President Dr Mark Lyons, who this year fronted a panel of industry leaders including Jack Bobo, CEO, Futurity, USA; Bianca Martins, General Manager, Alltech, Mexico; Matthew Smith, Vice President, Alltech, UK; and Brian Lawless, North American Species Manager, Alltech, USA. The group discussed the trends behind the data and their implications for the global market. Topics ranged from consumer demand to the adoption of new technology. The event was also broadcast in a public livestream, allowing people from all over the world to attend.
Volatility affects world markets
2019 was a volatile year and the event began with a discussion of global forces that have impacted the world’s feed markets.
The four major focuses for the future of the feed industry continue to be; environment, sustainability, regulation, and greenhouse gases (GHG). As Doctor Lyons pointed out, we are now a globalised, connected market. Environment: Governments may choose to concentrate on environmental concerns rather than market concerns Sustainability: This needs to be encouraged at the global level, not just a local level. We are now watching to see how the coronavirus impacts global feed supplies/costs? Biosecurity: Security is a major concern going forward. If we are going to continue to grow, we need to look back and study outbreaks so we can understand how to deal with future incidents. For better security we need to create a robust industry Consumerism: Most of the world now operates in a consumerdriven marketplace. The lowest price is no longer the primary determining factor in food purchases. Consumers are more educated than ever and demand food that is sustainably and ethically grown with traceability throughout the food production chain.
The AgTech Revolution
While climate change and water shortages remain serious problems, the rise of AgTech is helping to cope with such changes and increase productivity while lowering costs. Innovations such as the use of robots and drones are driving costs down and reducing environmental impacts while increasing yield.
20 | March 2020 - International Aquafeed