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More robust and accurate global figures for feed output in 2015 Aqua feed numbers fall despite global increase in farmed fish production
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sk and you shall receive. As global disposable income increases, consumers have developed a palate for protein, and, over the past five years the feed industry has delivered. Results from the 2016 Global Feed Survey released in late January by Alltech estimates international feed tonnage now at 995.50 million metric tonnes, a 1.97 percent increase over last year and a 14 percent increase since Alltech first published Global Feed Survey results in 2011 - but still just 4.5 million tonnes short of the one billion tonne mark. The analysis of five-year trends showed growth predominantly from the pig, and poultry feed sectors and intensification of production in the African, Middle Eastern, Latin American and European regions. Aquafeed output shows a year-on-year decline according to these latest figures. Aquafeeds recorded 35.47 million tonnes, down from 41 million tonnes in the figures released for 2014. China still accounts for over 50 percent of all farmed fish produced and it’s aquafeed output is between 60-70 percent of the total consumed globally. “Aquafeed numbers don’t reflect the strong growth in this sector. We do not see that in this survey,” admits Aidan Connolly, chief innovation officer of Alltech, who headed up the initiative to conduct the survey when he hosted the news webinar in January. “The production of farmed fish exceeds what we see in feed production increases,” he acknowledged. He says this could be due to more efficient farming, better feed conversion ratios and/or better statistics gathering. “Traditionally, there has been a lot of wastage and we see production systems are becoming more efficient,” he added. Regarding statistics gathering, Mr Connolly said that while it has become increasingly easier to collect data and the figures more comprehensive over the years, there always would be difficulties in achieving accuracy and that some estimates had to be used. In addition, this year’s survey cover 32,341 feedmills in total, up form 31,043 for 2014.
The feed barometer
“The feed industry is an excellent barometer of economic health and, based on our five years of data, predicts economic growth more accurately than many other indices,” says Mr Connolly. The Global Feed Survey assesses the compound feed production from more than 130 countries through information obtained in partnership with local feed associations and Alltech’s sales team, who visit the 32,341 feed mills annually. The 2016 survey showed poultry feed has the market share and is growing faster than any other species, with 46 percent of total global feed manufactured specifically for broilers, egg layers, turkeys, duck and other fowl. This year’s survey also confirmed that corn and soybean meal are the standard feed ingredients globally.
The top 10 feed producers in the world remained the same: China, the United States, Brazil, Mexico, India, Spain, Russia, Germany, Japan and France. As a region, Europe saw the most growth, up 13 million tonnes over last year, with the largest contributions coming from Russia, Turkey, Belarus and Poland. Down two percent from last year, China still holds the title of leading feed producer in Alltech’s annual Feed Survey with 179.93 million tonnes manufactured throughout the country’s 8550 feedmills. However, this is the third year the world’s leader has reported a consolidation of its feed tonnage production into a smaller number of feedmills. The number of feedmills in the United States and Brazil, the second and third largest markets, also declined. The US produced 172.73 million metric tonnes from 6012 feedmills (6718 mills in 2014) and Brazil manufactured 68.70 million metric tonnes from 1556 feedmills (1698 mills in 2014). According to Mr Connolly, the consolidation of feed production into fewer mills is driven by many factors. “The Chinese, in particular, see a benefit of having fewer feedmills—lower cost, more efficient and easier to control from the perspective of traceability and food safety,” Mr Connolly said. Other notable regional and species statistics from the 2016 Feed Survey are: Europe’s 5545 feed mills, with Russia’s contributions, augmented their production by 22 percent in 2015 compared to the previous year. The Middle East demonstrated a 17 percent increase with 21.438 million tonnes from the region’s 719 mills. Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America were up 5, 4 and 3 percent respectively while North America remained flat. Pig feed production was down 2 percent, with 253.53 million tonnes. Aqua, with 35.47 million metric tonnes, is down 5 percent this year; although outside of China this figure seems to relate to more accurate data collection and not a specific decline, especially given that aqua has been a grower, up 19 percent overall in the past five years. Equine feed, at 8.22 million tonnes, declined 2 percent compared to 2014. Poultry feed production continues to surge with a 5 percent increase, now at a total 463.69 million metric tonnes. Ruminant feed was also positive with 201.36 million tonnes, a 3 percent increase. Pets are up 4 percent at 22.59 million tonnes. “Having met with groups such as the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in Rome and the International Feed Industry Federation (IFIF), Alltech appreciates how difficult it is to collect and collate this data, but also how valuable it is on our journey to feed a planet with more than nine billion people by 2050,” Mr Connolly said. “With five years of work behind it, this is the most robust and reliable dataset on the sector available today.” The Global Feed Survey outlines Alltech’s estimate of the world’s feed tonnage and trends and is intended to serve as open information resource for policy and decision makers and industry insiders alike. A summary of the 2016 Alltech Global Feed Survey findings, including a recording of the webinar with Aidan Connolly, a booklet of the results and an interactive map, is available. bit.ly/alltechfeedsurvey
6 | January | February 2016 - International Aquafeed