INDIA NEWS
Mar 1-15, 2022 - Vol 2, Issue 16
Putin’s deceptive war plans By Asad Mirza
T
he Russian strategy in the ongoing Ukrainian crisis is aimed at not allowing NATO to accept Ukraine as its member. In reality, the war clouds have thickened due to the American and British stance and verbosity. The ongoing war of nerves and escalating tensions between the US and Russia over Ukraine has entered its fourth month after the Russian forces started their buildup in areas near the Ukrainian border in November 2021, but the genesis of the conflict goes back to 2013 or even to 2008, when Ukraine applied for NATO membership. Historically, Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union until 1991 and is currently a country lodged between Russia and Europe. After 1991 even its polity seemed to be under Moscow's influence and its foreign policy over the years has wavered being either pro-Russia or pro-European Union. But the current crisis owes its genesis to a rather vital source of energy, i.e. natural gas, which both the Russians and the Americans have not clearly mentioned in their talks or given out as a reason for the conflict. Genesis of the crisis If we try to decode the crisis, we find that it is basically about energy and how it will shape-up regional and global geopolitics. It is a fact that in spite of various global initiatives and campaigns to replace fossil fuels, we still do not have any viable source of sustainable technology, which could provide low-cost and dependable power on a massive global scale. In this scenario, natural gas, the least polluting fossil fuel, has become more and more critical as a viable energy source. Russia, which is the world's largest exporter of natural gas, currently supplies about 35 percent of Europe's demand. In reality at the heart of the current conflict lies the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline which will link Russian gas fields directly with Germany - the largest European economy, resulting in Western Europe becoming more dependent on Russian gas.
Nord Stream is a labyrinth of offshore natural gas pipelines in Europe, running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany and then further on to Western Europe. The Nord Stream projects have been fiercely opposed by the United States and Ukraine, as well as by other Central and Eastern European countries, because of concerns that the pipelines would increase Russia's influence and bargaining power in Europe. In the past, older Russian pipelines carrying gas to Europe passed through Ukraine. These gas pipelines generated revenue for Ukraine, as they passed through its land. But Russia in 2010 launched the Nord Stream 1 bypassing Ukraine through under sea pipelines in the Baltic Sea, Nord Stream 2, targeted to go onstream by the middle of this year, follows the same route and will double the gas supply through the network to 110 billion cubic metres per year. Further, the US advisors think that Vladimir Putin will be able to use Nord Stream 2 for strategic leverage as he'll be controlling a vital energy source to many European countries. And this may impact the American influence in the region. Russia-Ukraine Ties Historically, Ukraine has always acted as a natural buffer zone between Russia and Europe. It has always given enough lead-time to the Russian army to prepare and strategies while the enemy forces pass through the vast steppes of Ukraine.
Why India needs to pursue neutrality over Ukraine
A
s pictures of wounded women, bombed buildings, rolling tanks, fighter jet strikes and desperate civilians in Ukraine flood the TV screens and social media, India was expected to condemn the perpetrator. After all, India continues to suffer because of the expansionist policies of China and Pakistan.
case of Ukraine becoming a NATO member, NATO boots would be much nearer to Russia. In the latest episode, the American and British reactions, after Russia started to build up its military presence at the Ukrainian border in November 2021, were very hysterical and during the last two months the American leadership has predicted a Russian attack is imminent, but so far nothing has happened on that front. Biden's first statement on the conflict avowed that the US would not allow Nord Stream 2 to go on-stream if Russia invaded Ukraine. He also warned Russia of strict international sanctions. Meanwhile, to complicate matters further, Russian-backed rebel leaders in eastern Ukraine have announced plans for military mobilisation amidst increasing tensions. Denis Pushilin, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, said he had issued a decree for "general mobilisation"recently, while another separatist leader, Leonid Pasechnik, signed a similar decree for the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic.
After losing Crimea, Ukraine applied for NATO membership with more vigour. Putin cautioned NATO that it would face consequences if Ukraine were accepted as a member.
But Putin knows quite well that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine will be enormously costly for the US and West European countries. No one could predict Putin's next action but the real intention behind all this brinkmanship is that he is insistent on keeping Ukraine as a buffer zone and could go to any extent to thwart the US plus UK and western European countries' effort to allow Ukraine in their and NATO's camp and influence. So far, he has been able to achieve this through intimidating tactics and not war, as he also knows how costly that scenario would be for Russia. And if Germany were forced to cancel its Nord Stream 2 contract then the economic cost of a war would be a financial catastrophe for Russia, which it is ready to avoid.
The danger, upper most in the Russian generals’ view, is that in
(Asad Mirza is a political commentator based in New Delhi)
However, even after the breakup of the former Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has tried to control Ukraine, through installing puppet governments. But since the early 2010s, most of the regimes in power in Ukraine have shown pro-US tendencies. To warn such regimes, Putin annexed the Crimean region from Ukraine in 2014.
In 2021 Germany whose 13.3 per cent energy needs were met by nuclear energy needs Nord Stream 2 gas supply really quickly, as it is committed to shut down its nuclear plants by the end of this year. Though Germany has invested massively in wind and solar power generation, yet it can't be sure about their final gestation. One of Germany's largest trade partners Russia hopes to meet Germany's energy demands through Nord stream 2.
Diplomacy, though, is not ruled by emotion or moral pressure; it is more about strategy and longterm prospects. India abstained from voting on the US-sponsored UN Security Council resolution that deplored in "strongest terms" Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The move did not come as a surprise. Maintaining a balance between the US-led front and Russia has always been the foremost part of India's diplomacy. And it rightly followed this tradition. India articulated the reason for the abstention in the Explanation of Vote by T.S. Trimurti, India's Permanent Representative to the UN. The note expressed "deep concerns at the turn of events in Ukraine", and said that dialogue was the only solution. Laying emphasis on dialogue rather than military action, India has reinforced its diplomacy that made it clear that pressure won't work on its age-old policies. Even on January 31, India abstained on a procedural vote on whether to discuss the issue of Ukraine, and had then put forth its "legitimate security interests". India has its own concerns and knows well who the time-tested friends are and understands the politics of the fair-weather ones. This is all the more relevant in these times of continuing standoff with China in eastern Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh. Although the US has supported New Delhi over the Ladakh impasse, India can never run the risk of annoying a dependable ally such as Russia, which is the main supplier of its defence weapon systems. But the changing geo-politics after the imposition of sanctions against Russia may present a grim situation for the Modi government. The embargos may affect much-needed defence supplies to India from Russia, whether these are missile systems, or Kalashnikov AK203 assault rifles, spares and components, or stealth frigates and submarines. Although India has been buying weapons from the US as well, a balance has always been maintained between purchases from Moscow and Washington. The balance will be put to test now. With India abstaining from voting against Russia in the UNSC, the risk of projecting a neutral stance may be challenging. The emerging situation in Ukraine may have put India's diplomacy to test, but so far New
Nord Stream
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Delhi has not shown its ambiguity on choosing fronts. After the invasion, Ukraine has been seeking a much more proactive role from India in de-escalating the tension. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, knowing fully well the good chemistry between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, made an appeal to Modi to help his country. Zelensky had a telephone conversation with Modi, wherein he sought all support. Zelensky tweeted on Saturday around 6.20 p.m. (IST): "Spoke with Prime Minister @ narendramodi. Informed of the course of (Ukraine) repulsing (Russian) aggression. More than 100,000 invaders are on our land. They insidiously fire on residential buildings. Urged (India) to give us political support in Security Council. Stop the aggressor together!" Before Zelensky's tweet, the Russian Embassy in New Delhi appreciated India's stance in the UNSC. The embassy's Twitter account 'Russia in India' noted: "Highly appreciate India's independent and balanced position at the voting in the UNSC on February 25, 2022. In the spirit of the special and privileged strategic partnership Russia is committed to maintain close dialogue with India on the situation around Ukraine." Today, Ukraine is seeking help from India, but its relationship with India was not all that rosy in the past. Ukraine was one of the countries that opposed India's nuclear tests in 1998. It also pushed for UN intervention on Kashmir after the Modi government abrogated Article 370 in 2019. Ukraine has also been a regular arms supplier to Pakistan, despite India telling the world that Pakistan supports terror activities against India. In the present scenario, India has chosen to maintain a strategic diplomatic silence. With Zelensky openly seeking India's help, however, India can play a major diplomatic role between Ukraine and Russia. As the US and its allies are attempting to pound Russia with sanctions and providing arms and ammunition to Ukraine, it is India that can play the peacemaker in the given situation. India has much experience after dealing with aggression from Pakistan and China. Both the neighbouring countries have been threatening and trying to intrude into India's territory from time to time. India very well understands the tragedy of forcibly thrust wars. India has never been the aggressor or the intruder. Its policy has been to help democracies thrive and live peacefully.
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