Ten ways Ukraine crisis has impelled India’s intervention

India has finally decided to become proactive in Ukraine crisis by first allowing Ukrainian Ambassador Dr Igor Plikha over 15 minutes of air time on national television this Thursday to make his appeal to both India’ leaders as also Indian people. This was followed same evening by prime minister Narendra Modi having a phone conversation with President Vladimir Putin and India’s foreign minister talking to his counterparts in all the neighbouring nations of Ukraine. What is it that has triggered this proactive engagement of India?

While some of the issues will continue to unfold by the hour, one can begin by outlining the major ten drivers of this proactive engagement of Modi government.

First and foremost Ukraine had lately come to be home for over 20,000 people of Indian original, mostly Indian citizens, and mostly students doing medicine. About 4,000 of them have existed since the crisis began and India has to keep being engaged with both Ukraine and Russia to ensure their safety and, in case conflict continues to escalate, ensure their safe return home.

Second, and what has become most visible impact is how stock exchanges around the world including in India have tumbled leading to downwards evaluations of several major firms thereby majorly hitting investors and investor confidence. This has also raised deeper questions about globalisation and free market template that makes developing countries vulnerable to great power contestations.

Third, and more specifically mean major powers getting commodities like gold and oil — distracted away from their both major import commodities recent preoccupation with the of India —have seen uptick in Indo-Pacific region and China, prices. Especially import price thereby making China freer in of oil, which is least optional, has crossed $100 per gallon and is expected to reach as far as $130 a gallon. This will not only result in sharp rise in petrol prices in India but, with rise in cost of transportation, will have spill effect on all consumer items including essential consumables.

Fourth, will be ever increasing pressure on India’s foreign policy and its engagement with the conflict as such. Starting with the United States, then Russia and now Ukraine, every country has been increasingly pushing India to clarify its policy stance beyond just urging restraint on use of force, ensuring security of all and starting dialogue to resolve this crisis with enduring solutions. Each of these stakeholders wish India to endorse their position which seems impossible for India as it has historically desisted from being part of military blocs, which carries the cost of harming India’s strong bilateral relation with each of these powers.

Fifth, continued escalation by Russia clearly implies that world will stay focused in Europe. This is already being described as Europe’s biggest crisis since World War II and at time of writing no prospects of its early termination or even de-escalation are in sight as yet. This continued military confrontation would clearly mean India’s defence procurements from Russia, including its S-400 missiles and AK203 rifles as also overall pace of joint Indo-Russian research, development and production in defence sector, will come under stress.

Seven, this could also enhance other interesting templates of regional alignments. Just like China, Russia has been the other resident power of Indo- Pacific region that has stayed as an outlier in most Indo-Pacific narratives and initiatives. Ukraine crisis have clearly been pushing Russia further into China’s fold. The 4th February joint statement from Beijing between Presidents Xi and Putin had talked of no limits to their partnership and also endorsed each other’s position on Ukraine and Taiwan. Russia being India’s most time tested defence partner this clearly has implication for India.

Eight, as an offshoot of growing bonhomie between China and Russia, Pakistan has emerged as major beneficiary as seen in prime minister Imran Khan choosing to visit Moscow in the midst of Ukraine crisis. Clearly he was cautioned both by his well wishers at home and his largest economic partner nations like the United States and other members of the European Union, and his team insisted on cancelling this visit at last minute. Since their defence cooperation agreement of 2016 and regular joint military exercises, especially now in the backdrop of American exit from Afghanistan, President Putin’s increasing indulgence with Pakistan is again likely to keep India’s foreign policy pandits awake at night.

Nine, Ukraine crisis have also meant that China is no longer the main and constant target of American trade and technology wars. This provides China with breathing space to recalibrate its strategies of constantly expanding its influence. Especially postpandemic China — that claimed 2.6 per cent positive growth compared to US economy shrinking by almost 5 per cent and its GDP crossing 100 trillion yuan figure ($16trillion) — feels especially emboldened and empowered to unfold its ‘new era’ with direct implications for India’s core interests. By now 14 rounds of Core Commanders talks and half a dozen other interministerial communications have not been able to resolve China- India border tensions of last two years.

Finally, India also carries the burden of exceptions for being seen as world’s largest democracy, sixth largest economy, and major emerging nation and currently, for eighth time, non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which has recently held two back to back sessions to discuss Ukraine crisis. Here again, following its tradition India continues to avoid taking clear sides but has clearly come to stand with those victims of this military confrontation. Just like India is supplying humanitarian aid to Afghanistan without waiting for Taliban to come true on its well publicised benchmarks, India is trying for major powers to be awake to the sufferings being inflicted on people.

This unique approach from a major power India could perhaps produce some positive outcome and also set an example for others to join India now and in similar future crisis situations.

Prof Swaran Singh teaches at Jawaharlal Nehru University (New Delhi) and is president of Association of Asia Scholars (asiascholars.in)