ARCID China Update Volume 2, No. 1

Some of the dynamics of rising US-China competition will no doubt be on display at this year's SLD. Indeed, the fact that China's Defence Minister will be at the forum for the first time in nearly a decade, and that the US is expected to lay out specifics on the defence aspect of its Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy, sets up the potential for US-China fireworks at a high level.

For South-east Asia, heightened US-China competition today is a worrying prospect for security, sovereignty and prosperity.

While competition between major powers is commonplace in international relations, if not properly managed, it can upset regional stability, force countries into false choices in their alignments, and result in unrealised cooperation and missed opportunities.

Additionally concerning is the reality that while South-east Asian states would ideally be able to exploit US-China competition for their own gain, a series of other challenges today may limit their ability to do so. Stresses in domestic politics, fraying Asean unity and uncertainty about the future direction of both China's assertiveness and US reliability are all complicating factors in this respect.

SOME SUGGESTIONS But that does not mean that managing heightening US-China competition in the coming years is beyond the ability of South-east Asian states. Indeed, there is still much that the region can do to both shape the nature of that competition in a more positive direction as well as better insulate itself from potential negative fallout.

First, more South-east Asian governments should candidly reiterate concerns about the regional implications of US-China competition to Washington, Beijing and wider audiences.

On emerging areas of competition such as 5G, there is still little international understanding about how South-east Asian states are viewing this domain, with individual actions being viewed simplistically as leaning either towards or away from China, when, in many cases, options are still being weighed and the competitive environment is still being shaped.

While countries such as Thailand and Singapore have been more outspoken about the criteria they are using to consider alternatives, greater clarity on the part of other South-east Asian states would help contribute to a better understanding of the broader regional environment beyond just the prism of USChina rivalry.

131 Selected Analysis