The author is a specialist on Myanmar and a former BBC World Service News editor for the region.
(I) HK protests in a regional perspective When Hong Kong's protest movement against the Extradition Law Amendment Bill began on March 30, few could have anticipated that it would become a fullblown popular revolt. The protesters initially opposed the bill because it would allow the Hong Kong government to detain and extradite fugitives to mainland China. Despite the suspension and subsequent withdrawal of the bill by Hong Kong's Chief Executive Carrie Lam, the protest movement has taken on a life of its own. As its end goals of universal suffrage, an independent inquiry into police conduct and Ms Lam's resignation harden, its endgame appears fraught with risks of intensifying confrontation and violence. At its most extreme, the protest movement has come to resemble a kind of separation and distance from mainland Chinese rule. At a minimum, it appears to be in search of some local autonomy and democratic governance with greater upward mobility, away from Chinese supervision but with more equitable income distribution. Many of the protesters are reportedly young and economically deprived with few prospects of better standards of living, while the territory is famously wealthy and glitzy to outsiders. What's happening in Hong Kong is also taking to task China's "one country, two systems" pledge after the Chinese government regained sovereignty over the territory from British rule in 1997. Either way, Hong Kong will likely end up a shadow of itself, no longer the bustling, gleaming metropolis and regional financial hub it used to be. Tourists, investors and residents alike are having second and third thoughts about the former British colony. The corollary is that nearby neighbours will become a refuge for people and money leaving Hong Kong. Singapore is the most well positioned to provide the logistics and facilities as a regional safe haven. If Thailand's political environment were more settled and stable, this country would also be attractive as a sanctuary. To be sure, Hong Kong is still an immense and vibrant destination. With all the news flashes and dramatised media coverage out of Hong Kong, I had no idea what to expect for an overnight work visit last week, just a day before the Hong Kong government promulgated a ban on face masks to deter protesters. It seemed like another ordinary Thursday in Hong Kong. The MTR subway train system ran as it was supposed to, streets were beset with the usual traffic, shops were busy, restaurants were noisy.
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