2018 Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual by Horse Player NOW

CONTENTS 2018 ANNUAL 4

From The Publisher

8 13th Anniversary:

Countdown to the Crown

A history of the report, 2006-‘18.

10 Beat the Host

Xpressbet’s contest gives you a chance to prove it -- and get paid.

12 Just Win, Baby

The recipe for the proper prep path has been glaringly simple of late.

16 2017 2YO Stakes Results

Compilation of last year’s graded stakes-winning juveniles.

18 Top 100 BRIS Speed Figs

Complete list of the fastest 2YOs of 2017 by the BRISNET numbers.

22 Preseason Top 20 horses

Jeremy Plonk shares his 2018 leading contenders in the crop.

24 Famous Families

Regally bred only guarantees some public interest. So who’s got it?

26 The Big List 2018

Scouting the 3-year-olds from all corners of the country with Wynn Las Vegas odds, Jeremy Plonk’s “stars” and more.

46 2018 Road to the Crown

Full, easy-print prep schedule.

50 Individual Prep Histories

From January through the Belmont, a 2-page preview of every major stop-off on the trail.

120 Notebook

Quick hits on future bets & more.

57 DAYS-$30 MILLION IN PURSES THE HIGHEST PURSES IN THE MIDWEST - IN ALL CATEGORIES

OPEN ALLOWANCE (UP TO) $80,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $75,000 $50,000 CLAIMING − $48,000 $40,000 CLAIMING − $44,000 $30,000 CLAIMING − $40,000 $20,000 CLAIMING − $35,000 $10,000 CLAIMING − $23,000

Oaklawn’s racing program offers consistently growing purses and some of the largest, most enthusiastic crowds of fans in the country. And, it not only offers one of the richest and most proven programs for 3-year-olds with Triple Crown aspirations, but also has one of the richest series for older horses of both sexes. Contact the Oaklawn Racing Office today at 1-800-Oaklawn (625-5296) ext. 570 or visit Oaklawn.com for more information.

OAKLAWN.

WHERE RACING IS STILL KING.

1-800-OAKLAWN • OAKLAWN.COM

2018 RACING SEASON JANUARY 12 – APRIL 14

From the Publisher Some rare years we get a Triple Crown winner like American Pharoah, and some rare years we get three different series winners in which none really factor in the Eclipse Awards. Most of the time, the trail gives us the in-between. Who knows what 2018 will hold? That’s what makes the 13th season of Countdown to the Crown, and this fifth Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual, so much fun and tempting to put together. What we’ve seen of late – an amazing run of Kentucky Derbywinning chalk and undefeated sophs draped in roses – just may continue the first Saturday in May. But I don’t know of a horseplayer who won’t spend the next four months studying against all that appears obvious in hopes of landing Giacomo or Mine That Bird. It’s high time for all of our heroic handicapping. That’s what this and every Triple Crown trail offers us horseplayers. Get to work, folks, and make your personal history!

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk Contributing Stats/Odds BRISNET Wynn Las Vegas Photography Credits

Photos By Z / Keeneland Coady Photography / Churchill Downs, Oaklawn Park Adam Coglianese / NYRA Chelsea Durand / NYRA Benoit Photos / Santa Anita, Del Mar, Los Alamitos Dustin Orona / Remington Park Michael Burns / Woodbine Jim McCue / Maryland Jockey Club

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13 season begins for Countdown to the Crown th

By Jeremy Plonk

Triskaidekaphobia is the fear of the number 13. As Countdown reaches this supposedly unlucky-numbered milestone, fear not: We’ll have you covered from maidens to the classics once again in a format that’s often imitated, but never duplicated. Before Countdown to the Crown, much of the Derby trail coverage leaned on news and features. There wasn’t much in terms of true analysis. Cheerleaders, novelists and news folks shared the prep path with the year’s best horses. We studied things like gallop-outs and closing splits, and common

opponents to consider a strength of schedule, things now appearing in many weekly or seasonal writeups. But your loyal following and our continued exercise in digging deeper than anyone has propelled Countdown into its second-dozen years. It’s still about that discovery of something new, finding the next big thing or simply putting what we’ve seen among the Triple Crown prospects into a sensible context.

Countdown to the Crown is

detailed, and I make no apologies for that. Those who’ve followed the long series have read more than 1 million words about the top

prospects. Handicapping horse races is an intellectual exercise, and the drive-by society not interested in putting in the effort won’t ever be turned on to it. It’s never been my desire to make things watered down so more folks might stumble into a short-term interest.

Countdown runs from the first

Countdown is written for serious

that begins each Monday with a review of the charts, videos and coverage of the previous week’s 3year-old races. Also each Monday, I set out the weekly calendar and plot each and every 3-year-old maiden special weight, allowance and stakes race on my weekly worksheets that soon start to look like a Chinese takeout menu.

horseplayers and followers of the game’s true regular season, playoffs and Super Bowl. It’s the one time of year where things are defined, goals are common and we can envision players and schedules with a championship sense.

This marks the fifth year that I’ve taken full control of the direction and distribution of Countdown to the Crown. I’ve bounced Countdown around on various websites since its debut in 2006. Each time, the decision was mine when to move, and for strategic reasons; first and foremost: where I thought it could best benefit you, the reader and bettor.    

Horseplayerdaily.com (2006-‘07) ESPN.com (2008-‘11) DRF.com (2012-‘13) Countdowntothecrown.com (2014-present)

Friday in January through the Belmont Stakes, 22 weeks per year on average. Four years ago, we added coverage of Canada’s Queen’s Plate trail and main event. This expanded the series into the first weekend in July.

Countdown is a week-long exercise

By the end of the day on Tuesday, I’ve written all the race reviews and recaps and put half of the scouting report to bed. With Wednesday’s entries for Saturday released, my work begins in handicapping each of the races for not only prospects, but also potential plays. We don’t put this kind of effort in just for verbage. By Thursday night, my handicapping is complete; and on Friday each week I put the finishing touches in with my updated Top 20 before the official release. – JP

Come Get a Piece of the Pros Take down some of the most wellknown handicappers in racing this January and February and you could win your share of $50,000 in prizes in Xpressbet’s Beat the Host. The annual online contest returns Jan. 6 and pits you against the pros each Saturday. For the fourth straight year, Countdown author Jeremy Plonk will open the Beat the Host season as the target of horseplayers worldwide. Out-handicap him and earn your share of $2,500 in weekly prizes and be eligible for the grand prizes. All you have to do is out-earn the weekly host in eight $5 win wagers posted to your Xpressbet.com account. The host picks the races; you get to make the last call as host picks are posted by 5 pm each Friday. The weekly mandatory races are a split of events from Gulfstream

Park and Santa Anita, typically 4 each or a 3-5 division some weeks. Here is the 2018 Beat the Host schedule of hosts:

Plonk

Nadeau

White

Siegel

Byk

Ball

Quigley

Olcyzk

Jan 6 Jan 13 Jan 20 Jan 27 Feb 3 Feb 10 Feb 17 Feb 24

Jeremy Plonk Brian Nadeau Jon White Jeff Siegel Steve Byk Millie Ball Tom Quigley Eddie Olcyzk

HP NOW HP NOW SA XBTV SiriusXM XBTV SA NBC Sports

Tips For Beating the Pros The public has a big advantage in that the hosts’ picks are published in advance and you can play off of those and counter the hosts’ moves. For instance, if the host picks a likely $3 horse that’s a heavy favorite, you can swing for

something big in that race and feel as though the worst you can do is fall $3 behind. When the host takes a big price swing, you can feel more comfortable playing a favorite and taking the edge. Prizes: Qualifying Round Weekly prizes awarded to top 3 finishers based on total mutuel payoffs on the $5 win wagers: • • • •

1st - $1,500 2nd - $750 3rd - $250 Also any player that Beats the Host qualifies for the Beat the Host Championship Round.

The $5,000 Sweep the Host Bonus is awarded to any single player who exceeds the host’s cumulative mutuel total in each of all eight weeks of the Qualifying Round. •

•

If no player wins the Bonus, a $2,000 consolation prize will be awarded to the player who is the last to lose to the host in weekly competition. Players can win multiple weekly prizes.

Prizes: Championship Round Cash prizes awarded to top 10 finishers based on total mutuel payoffs: • • • • • •

1st - $5,000 2nd - $4,000 3rd - $3,000 4th - $1,000 5th - 10th - $500 Top thirty (30) finishers in the Championship Round based on cumulative mutuel payoffs earn complimentary seats to the $100,000 Xpressbet Showdown Tournament ($300 value each).

JUST WIN, BABY!

l Davis, late owner of the Oakland Raiders NFL franchise, famously said, “Just win, baby!” He didn’t care how you did it; just that you did. The Raiders won a lot under Davis’ tenure. The silver and black accounted for three Super Bowls.

If Al were still here today, he’d have a head start on everyone in handicapping this year’s Triple Crown prep trail. You want to find the horse draped in roses on the first Saturday in May? It’s quite easy: Just win, baby.

JUST WIN, BABY! The last Kentucky Derby winner to lose any race as a 3-year-old? Go all the way back to Animal Kingdom in 2011. The last six Derby winners all ran the table leading up to their Louisville invasion: I’ll Have Another, Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist and Always Dreaming combined for zero losses in 3YO preps.

mantra for today’s modern Derby success story. Lose the Lecomte in January, goodnight; the Fountain of Youth in February, try again; the Rebel in March, so sorry; the Santa Anita Derby in April, sayonara.

Many office pool bettors have found knockout pools fun during sports seasons. In those, you remain in the chase for the cash until your one pick loses. In other words, run the table as far as you can no matter how you get there. That’s almost the Year Derby Winner 2017 Always Dreaming 2016 Nyquist 2015 American Pharoah

3YO Prep Record 3-for-3, led by G1 Florida Derby 2-for-2, led by G1 Florida Derby 2-for-2, led by G1 Arkansas Derby

2014 California Chrome 3-for-3, led by G1 Santa Anita Derby 2013 Orb 3-for-3, led by G1 Florida Derby 2012 I’ll Have Another 2-for-2, led by G1 Santa Anita Derby

JUST WIN, BABY! If history repeats this year, it should certainly help whittle down the prospects. Last year’s Kentucky Derby field had just one horse remaining who was unbeaten at 3: Always Dreaming. Two years ago, the unbeatens on Derby Day included just Nyquist and Gun Runner, who wound up first and third. The 2015 season was a rarity with 5 undefeateds in the gate, headed by American Pharoah and Dortmund, again finishing first and third. Stats and trends are just a list of numbers to me unless I can apply some practical sense to them. So why has it seemingly become a prerequisite to be unblemished to wear the roses? For one, horses are racing less and less these days compared to a decade or two ago, much less yesteryear. So instead of needing to go 3-0 or 4-0 in preps, it’s truncated

now mostly to 2-0 and 3-0 as the major goals. That makes things mathematically easier to accomplish, but it perhaps more importantly helps to keep horses spread out from one another. If you’re not banging heads with the best of your division or region on multiple occasions, it’s easier to stay perfect. Win the midseason prep and you can cherry pick where you want to go for the second and final prep. Those in pursuit of you can choose to avoid the big horse and a rematch. A tentacle to that point is the official Kentucky Derby points chase, which has become the qualifying quotient for making the gate in Louisville. If you are shy on points, you’re going to shy away from the strongest competition. Once a top early or mid-season prep winner is established, connections will zig when that rival zags. This helps keep

JUST WIN, BABY! unbeaten horses unbeaten, too. And because horses are running fewer times, and these preps have gotten more lucrative in purses, there just aren’t any throwaway races anymore. Good horses are brought up to each performance not with the thought of peaking on the first Saturday in May, but with the idea that today matters. The Florida Derby is worth twice what it was when Thunder Gulch won it in 1995 and five times what Spectacular Bid and Affirmed earned in the late 1970s. If you think the banana is apt to spoil by May and they’re offering beaucoup bucks in March, you might as well win the darn thing now and take your chances later.

The fact that seasonal unbeaten horses are winning the Derby is not a coincidence with the run of successful favorites in the race either. Five straight chalks have scored in the Kentucky Derby, dating back to I’ll Have Another’s 2012 upset. This year could be as good as any to see a turnaround in the parade of logical Derby winners. But so was 2015, 2016 and 2017. If this year looks like recent years, you’ll be more than safe crossing horses off your Derby list with each and every passing maiden, allowance and stakes race. If you want to be successful on the first Saturday in May, remember what Al said and just win, baby.  Jeremy Plonk

2017 Juvenile Graded Stakes Results

Date Jun 30 Jul 22 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 30 Sep 4 Sep 4 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 30 Sep 30 Oct 1 Oct 7 Oct 7 Oct 8 Oct 14 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 11 Nov 25 Nov 26 Dec 2 Dec 9

Track CD Sar Dmr Sar Sar Dmr Sar CD WO Bel SA WO Bel Kee Kee Bel Dmr Dmr Aqu Dmr CD Dmr Aqu Lrc

Race Name Bashford Manor Sanford Best Pal Saratoga Special With Anticipation Del Mar Futurity Hopeful Iroquois Summer Pilgrim FrontRunner Grey Champagne Breeders' Futurity Bourbon Futurity BC Juvenile Turf BC Juvenile Nashua Bob Hope Ky Jockey Club Cecil B. DeMille Remsen Los Al Futurity

GR III III II II III I I III II III I III I I III III I I II III II III II I

D/S 6f Dirt 6f Dirt 6.5f Dirt 6.5f Dirt 8.5f Turf 7f Dirt 7f Dirt 8.5f Dirt 8f Turf 8.5f Turf 8.5f Dirt 8.5f AW 8f Dirt 8.5f Dirt 8.5f Turf 6f Dirt 8f Turf 8.5f Dirt 8f Dirt 7f Dirt 8.5f Dirt 8f Turf 9f Dirt 8.5f Dirt

Horse TEN CITY FIRENZE FIRE RUN AWAY COPPER BULLET CATHOLIC BOY BOLT D'ORO SPORTING CHANCE THE TABULATOR UNTAMED DOMAIN SEABHAC BOLT D'ORO ARCHAGGELOS FIRENZE FIRE FREE DROP BILLY FLAMEAWAY ENGAGE MENDELSSOHN GOOD MAGIC AVERY ISLAND GREYVITOS ENTICED ANALYZE IT CATHOLIC BOY McKINZIE

UNTAMED DOMAIN â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Summer Stakes at Woodbine

Trainer K. McPeek Ja. Servis S. Callaghan S. Asmussen J. Thomas M. Ruis D. Lukas L. Rivelli G. Motion T. Pletcher M. Ruis M. Dickinson Ja. Servis D. Romans M. Casse C. Brown A. O'Brien C. Brown K. McLaughlin A. Kitchingman K. McLaughlin C. Brown J. Thomas B. Baffert

TOP 100 JUVENILE SPEED RATINGS OF 2017 1 2 2 2 5 5 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25

Name Pardon My Style Good Magic Bolt d'Oro Amy's Challenge Separationofpowers Mr. Jagermeister Strike Power Speed Franco Solomini Dream It Is Caledonia Road Soutache Solomini McKinzie Instilled Regard McKinzie America's Tale Analyze It Diamond Oops Bolt d'Oro World of Trouble Road to Victory Monomoy Girl Mia Mischief Caledonia Road Sporting Chance Free Drop Billy Givemeaminit

S F C C F F C C C C F F C C C C C F C C C C F F F F C C C

Trk HP DMR SA CBY BEL CBY GP GP LRC SAR BEL GP DMR LRC LRC SA CD BEL GP DMR GP CD CD CD DMR SAR SAR SAR

Srf D D D D D D D T D D D D D D D D D T D D D D D D D D D D

Date Dist Speed 9/2 5.5 106 11/4 8.5 105 9/30 8.5 105 9/16 6 105 10/8 8 104 9/16 6 104 12/23 5.5 103 12/9 8 102 12/9 8.5 101 7/21 6 100 10/8 8 100 9/2 7 100 11/4 8.5 100 12/9 8.5 100 12/9 8.5 100 10/28 7 100 11/19 8 100 10/28 8 100 12/9 6 100 11/4 8.5 99 9/2 7 99 11/25 8.5 99 11/25 8.5 99 11/25 6.5 99 11/4 8.5 98 9/4 7 98 9/4 7 98 9/4 7 98

TOP 100 JUVENILE SPEED RATINGS OF 2017 25 25 25 25 25 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 56 56

Catholic Boy Greyvitos Ten City Tricks to Doo Rocks Lil Rockette Honorable Treasure Mia Mischief Take Charge Paula Bal Harbour Monomoy Girl Whereshetoldmetogo Razorback Lady Awesome Mass Noble Indy Amy's Challenge Surrender Now Firenze Fire Good Magic Solomini Separationofpowers Gas Station Sushi Mourinho Impact Player Projector Rubus Nuclear Option Madarnas Bookies Luck New York Hero

C C C C F C F F C F C F F C F F C C C F F C C C C G C C C

AQU DMR KEE TAM CPW SAR KEE GP GP CD GP GP GP GP CBY SA BEL BEL SA SAR DMR DMR GP GP KEE CD GP DMR BEL

D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

12/2 11/11 4/19 12/16 6/10 8/19 10/8 12/9 12/9 10/29 12/9 12/9 7/20 12/3 8/6 7/2 10/7 10/7 9/30 7/30 8/6 11/11 12/13 12/13 10/7 10/29 12/9 9/1 10/19

9 7 4.5 6 2.5 7 6 6 8 8 8 6 5.0 7 5.5 5.5 8 8 8.5 6 6.5 7 6 6 6 6.5 6 6 8

98 98 98 98 98 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 95 95

TOP 100 JUVENILE SPEED RATINGS OF 2017 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71

Texas Wedge Ms Bad Behavior Mississippi Diamond King Steel Shot Danyelli Talent Scout Mojovation Cool Bobby Ezmosh Mel's Gone Wild Stratosphere Pony Up Bolt d'Oro Berning Rose Copper Bullet Dream Tree Alluring Star Run Away Blonde Bomber Blonde Bomber Fly So High Audible Almond Roca Happy Like a Fool Solomini Texas Wedge Secret Spice Engage

C F C C C F C C C C F C C C F C F F C F F F C F F C C F C

DMR SA CD PRX CD AQU SA SAR DMR CD PRX PRX GP DMR BEL SAR LRC DMR SA DMR GP AQU AQU TAM KEE DMR SA SA SAR

D D D D D D D D D D D D T D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

7/21 10/15 11/19 10/22 11/17 11/24 10/9 7/29 11/11 9/16 6/17 11/5 12/9 9/4 10/21 8/13 12/9 11/4 7/3 11/4 9/30 11/16 12/6 12/16 4/9 9/2 10/29 10/1 9/4

5.5 6.5 8 6.5 6 6.5 6.5 6 6 8 4.5 6.5 8 7 8 6.5 8.5 8.5 5.5 8.5 8 8 8 6 4.5 6.5 5.5 5.5 6

95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94

TOP 100 JUVENILE SPEED RATINGS OF 2017 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71

Princess Warrior Texas Wedge Oskar Blues Airtouch Bookies Luck Razorback Lady Smokem My Favorite Gift Analyze It Earth Cool Bobby Retirement Fund Therapist Drama Run Hazit United Patriot Ride a Comet Aequor Wise Gal Thoughtless Doll

F C C C C F C F C C C C C F C R C C F F

CD DMR SAR SAR DMR GP DMR GPW DMR GP SA FG BEL AP SAR CD FG GP LRL MVR

D T D D D D D D T T D D T D D D D D T D

9/16 6 11/24 5 8/12 7 8/12 7 11/4 7 9/30 6 11/4 7 10/25 8.5 11/26 8 6/11 5 10/9 6.5 12/22 8.32 10/28 8 9/9 5.5 8/26 6.5 11/18 8 12/17 8.5 12/9 6 8/11 5.5 11/22 5

94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94

JEREMY PLONK’S TOP 20 – 1/5/18 ENTICED

INSTILLED REGARD

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Pedigree & PPs if he doesn’t peak too soon.

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Right in the mix among Cali’s top hopes.

Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Should come into Triple Crown fresh.

Trainer: Dale Romans Winter Home: Gulfstream Park (Fla.) Can move up with any progression.

Trainer: Mick Ruis Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Talented juvenile, can barn move him up?

Trainer: Brad Cox Winter Home: Oaklawn Park (Ark.) Looking for big things on Ark Derby trail.

Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Consistent fighter in the right hands.

Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset Winter Home: Fair Grounds (La.) Could be rising FG face for trail newcomer.

GOOD MAGIC BOLT D’ORO SOLOMINI

UNTAMED DOMAIN

FREE DROP BILLY HIGH NORTH QUIP

MENDELSSOHN

Trainer: Graham Motion Winter Home: Fair Hill (Md.) Animal Kingdom handled dirt when asked.

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Winter Home: Coolmore (Ire.) Beholder’s bro already had US success.

Trainer: Dale Romans Winter Home: Gulfstream Park (Fla.) Not far off Enticed at 2; still has upside.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Winter Home: Palm Beach Downs (Fla.) See if he can live up to his pedigree.

Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Proven he can take his track with him.

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Disappointed in Remsen; can he rebound?

TIZ MISCHIEF ANALYZE IT

PRINCIPE GUILHERME

MARCONI

AVERY ISLAND GREYVITOS

Trainer: Steve Asmussen Winter Home: Fair Grounds (La.) Rising star will get a lot of hype for now.

Trainer: Adam Kitchingman Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Can travel, now the question is distance.

Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Better than Los Al effort; needs to be.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Winter Home: Palm Beach Downs (Fla.) Should get chance to move through ALW.

Trainer: Steve Asmussen Winter Home: Fair Grounds (La.) Very impressive CD Fall; has the goods.

Trainer: Jonathan Thomas Winter Home: Bridlewood Farm (Fla.) Remsen winners often underachieve.

McKINZIE

NEW YORK CENTRAL

NAVISTAR

CATHOLIC BOY

Get top 20 updates every Friday at Countdowntothecrown.com!

FAMOUS FAMILIES 2018

American Pharoah’s full-brother ST. PATRICK’S DAY  BASE COMMAND – By Tiznow out of Tar Heel Mom  BELIEVE IN ROYALTY – By Tapit out of Believe You Can  DAK ATTACK – Maternal grandson of Proud Spell  DEBATING – Full-brother to Fed Biz  DOMAIN – By Orb out of Pleasant Home  ENTICED – By Medaglia d’Oro out of It’s Tricky  FAVERSHAM – Full-brother to California Chrome  HE TAKES CHARGE – Maternal grandson of Take Charge Lady  HOFBURG – Half-brother to Emollient

FAMOUS FAMILIES 2018  HOLLAND PARK – By Tapit out of Round Pond  HOLLYWOOD STAR – By Malibu Moon out of Hollywood Story  KITTEN’S BOY – By Kitten’s Joy out of Catch the Ring  LABEQ – By Tapit out of Life Is Sweet  MARCONI – Half-brother to Mucho Macho Man  MENDELSSOHN – Half-brother to Beholder  MONTAUK – By Medaglia d’Oro out of Indian Vale  NELSON – By Frankel out of Moonstone  NERO – Half-brother to Ocean Knight  REGAL LOOK – Half-brother to Protonico  REGULATE – Half-brother to Honorable Duty  RIVER FRONT – By War Front out of Havre de Grace  SARGEANT DRIVE – By Tapit out of Carriage Trail  ST. PATRICK’S DAY – Full-brother to American Pharoah  TELEKINESIS – Maternal grandson of Gold Mover  TITLE READY – Maternal grandson of Personal Ensign  VERBOTEN – Maternal grandson of Confessional  VICTORY LANE – Full-brother to Donworth  WESTERDALE – Half-brother to Rattlesnake Bridge

Horse A DIFFERENT STYLE ADMIRALTY PIER AFTERBURNER AHEADBYACENTURY AIRTOUCH ALFARQAD ALKHAATAM ALL OUT BLITZ ALL SYSTEMS GO ALLURED ALMERIA AN OCALA TEN ANALYZE IT ANALYZE YOUR LUCK ANTARCTIC APATOW ARAWAK ARAZI LIKE MOVE ARCHAGGELOS ARCHED FEATHER ARGOSY FLEET ARRIVAL ARTIE B GOOD AVEENU MALCAINU AVERY ISLAND AX MAN AWAKEN AYACARA BAFFIN BAHAMIAN BAIL OUT BAL HARBOUR BANK WALKER BARBAROSSA BARELY IMPAZIBLE

Odds Trainer Sire Stars Horse Player NOW’s Notables 275 Jo. Servis The Factor ** Sprint-bred SW at Laurel. 200 Minshall English Channel ** Rock-solid on Tapeta & turf. 300 Potts Take Charge Indy * Best on synthetic vs. lesser. 225 Ross Midnight Lute ** Legit Queen’s Plate player. 85 Pletcher Tapit ** AWOL since Spa debut 2nd. 225 McLaughlin War Front * $1.3M buy yet to hit worktab. 60 C. Brown Tapit *** Remsen 4th seeks MSW grad. 275 Callaghan Concord Point ** Sprint pedigreed Lrc Dec grad. 200 Pletcher Orb ** Drills at PBD for delayed debut. 175 C. Brown Flatter ** Knocked on NYRA doors at 2. 300 Hall Into Mischief * Well-traveled mdn cut below. 300 Miller Prospective * Tanked in Best Pal, out since. 60 C. Brown Point of Entry **** Dmr SW; Came Home’s family. 250 Pletcher Overanalyze ** NYB out since Tremont; in Fla. 200 McKeever Tapit * Turf-bred for Flaxman; dull dirt. 200 Pletcher Distorted Humor ** 2nd dam Versailles Treaty. 225 Ward Uncle Mo ** Back on beam at Turfway. 275 Gonzalez Greydar ** Inaugural runner-up at Tampa. 200 Dickinson Temple City *** G3 Grey champ solid syn/turf. 300 Frederick Arch * CD MSW winner w/ sprint dam. 85 Truman Mineshaft ** Out since July‘s SA Juvenile 2nd. 125 Casse Tapit *** Troubled trip KJC; can do better. 250 Morey Artie Schiller ** NoCal sprint SW out since Sept. 175 Englehart Into Mischief ** Nashua 3rd fits well w/ NYBs. 45 McLaughlin Street Sense **** Remsen let down; progressing? N/A Baffert Misremembered *** Fleet 6F debut win Jan 1 SA. 250 Hamm Super Saver ** OH-bred talented, but how far? 250 Desormeaux Violence *** Leading El Camino Real player. 225 Asmussen Justin Phillip * Sprinter out since Sanford 4th. 200 Callaghan Freedom Child ** Mdn overmatched in two G1s. 250 McGaughey Arch ** Payson drills; Inside Info family. 150 Pletcher First Samurai *** Mth/GP SW at 2; sprint dam. 200 Desormeaux Tiz Wonderful ** 2nd ‘Bolt at Dmr; out since Aug. 250 More Than Ready *** NY-bred solid in open GP T-ALW. Pletcher 150 C. Brown Mission Impazible ** No drills since Spa debut score.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

AVERY ISLAND Everything was looking up for this colt until a step back in the Remsen. What next?

CATHOLIC BOY Turf or dirt, he showed that he appreciates some distance at age 2. Now can he out-foot elite dirt horses?

Get weekly scouting reports and updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

BARRY LEE BASE COMMAND BE VEWY VEWY QUIET BEAUTIFUL SHOT BECKFORD BEER PRESSURE BELIEVE IN ROYALTY BERNOTCHIE BIBLICAL BIG BOY CANDY BIG GEMMY BLUEBLOOD BOBBY AX BOBBY'S WICKED ONE BODE'S MAKER BOLT D'ORO BOMBARDEO BOOKIES LUCK BORU BOURBON RESOLUTION BOURNE IN NIXA BRASSTOWN BRAVAZO BREAKING THE RULES BURNSIDE CALIFORNIA NIGHT CAMBY CAMPAIGN CANADIAN GAME CANDY CORNELL CANDY EXCHANGE CANDY MONSTER CANYON BREEZE CAPTIVATING MOON CATHOLIC BOY

200 150 300 150 200 300 300 175 175 175 300 125 175 250 N/A 7 250 N/A 200 225 300 175 200 250 200 225 250 100 250 N/A 500 350 500 300 30

DePaz Hennig Tiller Desormeaux Elliott Gonzalez L. Jones Casse Pletcher Marquez Calhoun Casse Sano Stall Milligan Ruis Desormeaux Bonde Pletcher Wilkes Margolis Baffert Lukas McGaughey Rivelli Maker Glatt C. Brown O’Neill Shirreffs Hamm Chatterpaul D. Oliver Block Thomas

Violence ** 2YO SW road warrior; MD threat. Tiznow ** Dam Tar Heel Mom top sprinter. Silent Name ** Likely put away for Q-Plate run. Trappe Shot *** Distance big question; fast SW. Bated Breath ** GB-bred 5th BC JT; grass genes. Silent Name ** OH-bred stakes-placed WO syn. Tapit *** Dam Believe You Can; dull at RP. Bernardini * Out since WO debut 3rd in Aug. Tapit ** Wrong-way 6th in Remsen. Twirling Candy * Out since July‘s SA Juvenile 3rd. Gemologist ** NYB struggled vs. open at CD. City Zip ** SW sprinter back on Fla tab. Shanghai Bobby * Out since July MSW win; sprint? Speightstown *** FG debut W; dam ½ Eng Chann’l. Bodemeister ** 2nd Clever Trevor at RP. Medaglia d’Oro ***** 2x G1 winner wide run BC Juvy. Violence ** Dmr T-sprint winner dull stakes. Lucky Pulpit ** 2x CA-bred SW; win-early ped. Curlin ** Family of Data Link, Hymn Book New Year’s Day ** Spa winner tanked Kee stakes. More Than Ready ** Indy/CD sprint winner at FG. Tiznow *** Solomini workmate; dam sprint. Awesome Again *** G1-placed runner winters at OP. War Front * Ocala tab; family My Flag et al. War Front *** ½ bro Hear the Ghost now Cali. Midnight Lute *** Debut romp over Holland Park. Candy Ride ** Narrow SA 2nd to Kanthaka. Curlin *** 2nd Spa; dam ½ Arch, Acoma. Curlin ** Nibbler sitting on mdn win soon. Candy Ride ** Dec 26 big step back at SA. Sidney’s Candy * OH-bred SW far from big stage. Sidney’s Candy * Back tab Fall after spring Bel 2d. Daaher * Longshot for TuP Derby trail. Malibu Moon ** Sprint genes; solid listed-type. More Than Ready **** Slow Remsen W; versatile sort.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

CARDSHARP CEE VEE CHANNEL CAT CITY PLAN CLEVER MIND COAL TRUTH COLTANDMISSISSIPPI COMBATANT CONCUR CONQUISTADOR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COOL BOBBY COPPER BULLET CORDMAKER COVE BLUE CUESTION DE TIEMPO CURLIN'S HONOR DAK ATTACK DARK TEMPLAR DARK VADER DEBATING DECLARATIONOFPEACE DELANO ROOSEVELT DELTA BAROWS DESTINY AWAITS DEVINE ENTRY DIA DE PAGO DIAL OPERATOR DIAMOND KING DIAMOND OOPS DISCOVERED DOMAIN DON FORTIS DRACO DRAFT PICK

250 N/A 225 200 125 N/A N/A 85 175 100 250 150 60 250 300 300 85 50 175 175 275 300 100 150 125 300 150 250 225 125 350 250 275 275 250

Johnston Lonhro ** Godolphin colt chased ‘Navy. Breen Tiznow ** Smoked GP turf MSW cast in Dec. Pletcher English Channel ** Turfer mdn win GP Sept via DQ. Harty Street Sense *** GG SW no match for ‘Bolt at SA. Buffum Motion ** MD Million debut win; sprinter? C. Brown Mineshaft *** Superb ped; won’t be mdn long. Pletcher Pioneerof The Nile ** Damside pedigree for sprints. Asmussen Scat Daddy *** Miler-type fits well OP/FG. D’Amato Curlin *** Intriguing, won’t be mdn long. Casse Tiznow *** $2.45M buy fits well at FG. Cassidy Animal Kingdom ** CA-bred SW outrun FrontRunner. Eurton Shanghai Bobby *** ½ IA Dby champ Looking Cool. Asmussen More Than Ready *** Absent since Sar Special victory. Jenkins Curlin * Faded in MD Juv Championship. Romans Ghostzapper ** Off board 3x at 2; 2nd dam Trip. Correas The Factor ** Route MSW winner Tam path. Casse Curlin ** Kee debut W; win-early family Romans Ghostzapper **** Shin probs; 2nd dam won Oaks. Walsh Tapit **** CD winner tab FG; + damside. Tale of Ekati Eurton ** OH-bred Dec MSW 1M win Lrc. C. Brown Giant’s Causeway ** Full bro star miler Fed Biz. O’Brien War Front *** 3rd dam Serena’s Song; Dmr W. O’Brien Galileo ** 2nd to Saxon Warrior in Sept. Hori Into Mischief * Japan 1m-T Oct debut win by 4. Baffert Curlin ** Improved at Lrc; sprint dam. Rice Point of Entry *** Laurel stakes-type for Big A? Cerin Macho Uno ** 2 solid Dmr stakes; sidelined. Ja Servis Dialed In * NJ-bred grad back on NYRA tab. Reid Quality Road *** Laurel SW clipped heels KJC. Biancone Lookin At Lucky *** Speedster 2x SW at GP; how far? Casse Gemologist * Still maiden after 5 tries at 2. McGaughey Orb ** Dam Pleasant Home; GP soon. Makiura Henny Hughes * 2nd in Dec Japan points race. Braddy Astrology * Out since Sept mdn W at GP. Eurton Candy Ride ** Maiden nibbler in 3 Cali tries.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

DREAM BABY DREAM DREAM FRIEND DREAMER'S POINT DRENA'S STAR DRIVEN BY HISTORY DRIZZY DUNK EARTH EBBEN ELLIOTT BAY ENCUMBERED ENGAGE ENJOY THE JOURNEY ENTICED ESKIMINZIN EVALUATOR EXPLORER EZMOSH FASCILITATOR FAST BOAT FAVERSHAM FIGHT ON FIRENZE FIRE FLAMEAWAY FLAT LUCKY FLEET REVIEW FOR HIM FORT WISE TREATY FREE DROP BILLY FULL OF RUN GALACTICA GENERAL INTEREST GET THE FACTS GEYSER GIDU

150 175 275 250 500 225 350 N/A 200 500 350 50 300 20 225 250 250 250 250 250 200 200 75 125 N/A 200 250 300 50 300 300 225 N/A N/A 150

Asmussen Pletcher Wilkes Amoss Connelly Machowsky Gold Pletcher Margolis H Belvoir Callaghan C Brown Byrne McLaughlin Delmas Dilger

O: LNJ Foxwoods

Cox Asmussen Clement Sherman Asmussen Ja Servis Casse Asmussen O’Brien Pender Cox Romans Ja Servis Calhoun Hess Casse Walsh Pletcher

Into Mischief Ghostzapper Shackleford First Samurai Two Step Salsa English Channel Brethren Orb Trappe Shot Harbor the Gold Violence Into Mischief Uncle Mo Medaglia d’Oro Cold Harbor Overanalyze Orb Tizway The Factor City Zip Lucky Pulpit Into Mischief

** ** *** ** * ** ** ** ** * ** *** ** ***** * ** * *** ** ** * *** Poseidon’s Warrior *** Scat Daddy *** Flat Out ** War Front ** Violence * Fort Larned ** Union Rags **** Power Broker * Uncle Abbie * Calimonco * Tapit ** The Factor ** Frankel ***

CD fall winner likely sprints. $400k, works PBD toward debut. ½ Sweetgrass; steady ALW at 2. FG sprint MSW grad in Dec. PID SW gets dirt test at Tampa. CA-bred multiple stakes-placed. Out of top sprinter Feline Story. Tyro 3rd; strong sprint damside. CD 1m ALW winner tries FG. Seattle’s finest; out since Sept. Dmr turf stakes winner; dirt? Bel Fut champ; turf damside. Nibbling mdn needs FG surge. KJC winner; dam It’s Tricky. SW out since Aug; Q Plate bid? NYB SW gets winter Aqu shot. $1.25M buy big genes, no drills. Tailed off Fall, but has ability. FG grad looms, but sprint ped. Romped GP turf Dec; grass dam. Full-brother California Chrome. CD sprint SW sent to west coast. G1 SW distance/develop ???s. Bourbon winner gets shot in Fla. Big step back in Springboard. G1 2nd; dam full Rip Van Winkle. MCL winner no match Lrc Fut. TP ALW winner for Spiral path. Barn’s stereotypical trail closer. Out since Champagne fizzle. TX-bred SW out since summer. CA-bred won at Dmr; sidelined. Bel turf winner training in Fla. Rallying FG T-sprint win 12/28. GP T-sprint MSW return romper.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

ENTICED New Yorker took his game on the road and beat Tiz Mischief over his home track in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill.

EZMOSH One of Kentuckyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most talented 2YOs at middle distances. Will he want to stretch out and handle the trip?

Get weekly scouting reports and updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

GIVEMEAMINIT GLADYOUSAWME GOLD LABEL GOOD MAGIC GOREN GOTTA GO GRACIDA

150 500 350 14 225 175 300 GRANDPA KNOWS BEST 225 GRAVITATING 275 GREYVITOS 175 HAPPILY (F) 175 HARDWORKCLEANLIVIN 300 HAVE AT IT 300 HAZIT 150 HE HATE ME 125 HEMP HEMP HURRAY 300 HE'S BANKABLE 200 HE'S STYLISH 225 HE TAKES CHARGE 125 HIDDEN FUNDS 275 HIGH NORTH 125 HIGHER POWER 150 HOFBURG 150 HOLLAND PARK 225 HOLLYWOOD STAR 75 HOME RUN MAKER N/A HONORABLE TREASURE 200 HYNDFORD 300 IKE 100 INFINITY SQUARED 125 INSCOM 175 INSTILLED REGARD 65 INTIMIDATE 300 IRONWOOD 250 KANTHAKA 225

Stewart Cox Calhoun C Brown C Brown Wilkes O’Neill McPeek T Dutrow Kitchingman O’Brien Pish Clement Pletcher DePaz Ward Casse D’Amato Casse Pino Cox

DK Von Hemel

Mott McLaughlin Romans Englehart McPeek Pletcher Baffert Sharp Callaghan Hollendorfer Vronsky N/A Hollendorfer

Star Guitar *** Stakes-type needs FG breakout. Due Date ** LA SW gets class test in Nawlins. My Golden Song * May LS grad back on tab Nov. Curlin ***** BC king; dam loved OP if travel. More Than Ready ** $1.1M buy drilling for Fla debut. Shanghai Bobby *** SW had troubled run in KJC. Custom for Carlos * LA-bred trounced Dmr Futurity. More Than Ready **** Fall developer; Chitu’s fem fam. Astrology ** Knocking on NYRA mdn door. Malibu Moon **** Springboard Mile champ fleet. Galileo ** G1 winner troubled BC JFT bid. Colonel John * Minor summer stakes-type at 2. Kitten’s Joy ** Kee T-MSW score; try NY winter? War Front ** Spa winner no-show in G1 bids. Algorithms **** Summer star drilling in Fla now. Artie Schiller ** Grass horse may lean Q-Plate. Arch ** Improving sort stepped up GP. Into Mischief ** Knocking on MSW door late Fall. Tapit *** 2nd dam Take Charge Lady. Run Away and Hide * Sprint-pedigree sort for Md. Midnight Lute **** Improving KJC 4th; fits OP/FG. Medaglia d’Oro *** Out of Alternate; sleeper for OP. Tapit ** ½ Emollient out since 4th at Sar. Tapit *** Round Pond baby; Aqu 2nd Dec. Malibu Moon **** BCJ 6th; mama Hollywood Story. Into Mischief ** Went wrong direction fall. To Honor and Serve ** Spa winner didn’t rise in stakes. Street Cry ** Modest GP debut 4th on turf. Paynter *** Brilliant drills for winter debut. Munnings * AWOL since Spa MCL debut win. Distorted Humor ** Solid turf miler; ½ to Lochte Arch **** Proved mettle in Los Al Fut test. Hess ** CA-bred SW for El Camino Real? Curlin * $950k 2YO buy first drill 1/1. Jimmy Creed ** SA 7F grad bred to sprint.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

57 DAYS-$30 MILLION IN PURSES THE HIGHEST PURSES IN THE MIDWEST - IN ALL CATEGORIES

OAKLAWN.

WHERE RACING IS STILL KING.

1-800-OAKLAWN • OAKLAWN.COM

2018 RACING SEASON JANUARY 12 – APRIL 14

KATE'S GOLDEN DUDE KEW GARDENS KEY TO THE NILE KEYSTONE FIELD KILROY WAS HERE KINGSVILLE KING ZACHARY KITTEN'S BOY KOWBOY KARMA KRIS' ROCKET KAT KUROSAWA KYLEMORE LABEQ LATONKA LE VENT SE LEVE LEMONADE THURSDAY LIONITE LOCOMOTION LONE ROCK LONE SAILOR LONGDEN LONELY WEEKEND LUCKY PERFECTION LUCKY ROMANO LUNDQVIST MACHISMO MACHTREE MAJOR CABBIE MARAUD MARCONI MARZO MASK MASTER RULER MCKINZIE MEISTERMIND

300 175 175 N/A 400 300 175 225 200 150 250 275 N/A 400 225 300 125 175 250 65 250 300 500 350 200 175 300 200 225 40 200 45 500 11 225

Amoss Touch Gold ** Indy/DeD winner steps up at FG. O’Brien Galileo ** Irish 10F-T winner at age 2. Pioneerof The Nile Baffert * Out since dull Dmr debut in Aug. Mandella Candy Ride ** Encouraging fall debut 4th. Stall Distorted Humor ** Nibbler needs to get over hump. Pish Street Move ** TX-bred 3rd Springboard Mile. Romans Curlin ** Late debut 3rd at CD in Nov. Pierce Kitten’s Joy ** Catch the Ring son a QP hope. L Jones Kodiak Kowboy *** Stakes fighter; 3rd dam Althea. Baltas Eskendereya ** Spread-eagled Dmr MSW in Nov. C Brown First Samurai * Sprint genes; 3rd in Oct, absent. Harty Tiz Wonderful * Turfer w/ much to prove on dirt. McLaughlin Tapit ** Dam Life Is Sweet; 6th in debut. McClachrie Signature Red * SW stretch-out test toward QP. Hagiwara Symboli Kris S ** Japanese pt chase score in Dec. Delacour Lemon Drop Kid * Outrun badly in Kee dirt try. Asmussen Quality Road *** 4th in G1 Breeders’ Futurity. Brisset Street Sense ** Fall CD debut 4th; at Payson. Van Meter Majestic Warrior ** Decent bounce-back CD ALW. Amoss Majestic Warrior *** Among top FG locals early ‘18. Baffert Bernardini ** Not much to show for 2 starts. Tiznow Motion ** Needs Mid-Atlantic breakout. Chleborad Majesticperfection * IA-bred is MIA since stakes Ls. Mathis Lucky Pulpit * MCL grad way off Cali’s elite. O: Stonestreet Family of Firing Line, Sharp Azteca. Afleet Alex * Pletcher More Than Ready ** Wintering NY after 2 Spa losses. Casse Kitten’s Joy *** GP turf ALW winner – Spiral? Hendricks Into Mischief ** LA-bred out since SA Sept win. Pletcher Blame *** Rock-solid 2yo turf; GP dirt try. Pletcher Tapit **** $2M buy ½ to Mucho Macho Man. Pletcher Medaglia d’Oro ** $1M yearling 0-2 in NY mdns. C Brown Tapit *** Bel debut win; dam ½ Bullsbay Sadler Overdriven ** Out since Dmr stakes flops. Baffert Street Sense ***** Talented, didn’t move up Lrc Fut. Asmussen Bodemeister ** Improved Ky at 2; tries FG path.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

FREE DROP BILLY Impressive winner at Keeneland, he’ll want to avoid super-speedy racetracks on the trail and give his finishing style its best shot.

GOOD MAGIC Chad Brown got his first Triple Crown win with Cloud Computing in last year’s Preakness going lightly raced. Expect a repeat of that sort of schedule.

Get weekly scouting reports and updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

MENDELSSOHN MIC BEN HUR MIND TRAPPE MISSISSIPPI MISTER BISTER MO DIDDLEY MOJOVATION MONTAUK MOON DUDE MORNING STRIDE MOURINHO MR. JAGERMEISTER MR. RECIO MUSTANG CAT MY BOY JACK NATIONAL FLAG NAVISTAR NEEPAWA NELSON NERO NEW YORK CENTRAL NEW YORK HERO NIGHT STRIKE NOBLE INDY ONE THIRTY NINE OSKAR BLUES PARADISE ISLAND PAYNE PEACE PEPPERED PHOENIX FIRE PHONE FUNKY MUNKY

PILLAR MOUNTAIN PINPOINT PLATINUM EQUITY

40 250 250 75 275 225 N/A 22 175 275 125 200 N/A N/A 250 225 60 225 200 75 100 175 350 85 250 275 225 200 25 275 200 300 250 300 225

O’Brien Hatakeyama Correas Casse Granitz Casse Pletcher Pletcher Scott Sharp Baffert Lund Bauer Ewing Desormeaux Pletcher Pletcher Casse O’Brien Baffert Asmussen Rice Calhoun Pletcher McPeek McPeek Weaver Cox Mandella Baker Baffert Donk Twomey N Summers Nihei

Scat Daddy Smart Boy Trappe Shot

**** * ** Pioneerof The Nile *** Kantharos ** Uncle Mo ** Quality Road *** Medaglia d’Oro *** Cape Canaveral * Morning Line ** Super Saver *** Atta Boy Roy * Scat Daddy ** Tale of the Cat ** Creative Cause *** Speightstown ** Union Rags **** Scat Daddy ** Frankel *** Pioneerof The Nile **** Tapit ***** Mineshaft ** Liaison ** Take Charge Indy *** Creative Cause ** Speightstown ** Treasure Beach * Paynter *** Violence *** Tapizar ** Tapit *** Data Link ** Kodiak * Dialed In * Stay Thirsty **

½ to Beholder a pro in BCJT. 2nd in Tokyo points race in Nov. AP debut winner on tab at Tam. CD fall winner; dam sprinted. Tam 6f romp over TAP shipper. Spring winner fizzled in stakes. Spa grad winless 3 stakes bids. Indian Vale baby won Bel debut. Alberta-bred out since July win. Absent since Ellis score in July. 2x stakes 2nd; sprint damside. MN-bred regional sprinter. Didn’t move up in Ky ALWs. TP winter sprinter for now. Turf SW gets route shot on dirt. Absent since Hopeful 5th. GP grad; dam ½ Delightful Kiss. Coronation Fut 2nd QPlate-type. Irish G3 winner o/o Moonstone. ½ to Ocean Knight well-meant. CD romper; dam ½ Peace Rules. Big A winter contender. SW troubled 4th Springboard. GP Dec debut score fast & easy. Slow developer may fit FG/OP. Hopeful also-ran decent in KY. Absent since Spa debut turf win. Knocked on Ky door; FG player. Big Vegas drop post-12/30 win. Grey runner-up blitzed in KJC. $1.25M buy drilling for SA bow. Turfer out since Sar MSW win. Dec Poly winner at Dundalk. 2x local winner for Sun trail. Training out west since Kee.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2018 $300,000 GUARANTEED BARBARA FRITCHIE STAKES-GII Fillies & Mares, Four-Years-Old & Upward Seven Furlongs

$250,000 GUARANTEED GENERAL GEORGE STAKES-GIII Four-Year-Olds and Upward • Seven Furlongs $100,000 GUARANTEED JOHN B. CAMPBELL STAKES

Four-Year-Olds & Upward • One Mile & One Eighth

$100,000 GUARANTEED MD RACING MEDIA STAKES Fillies & Mares, Four-Years-Old & Upward About One Mile & One Sixteeenth

$100,000 GUARANTEED WIDE COUNTRY STAKES (LISTED) Fillies, Three-Years-Old • Seven Furlongs

$100,000 GUARANTEED MIRACLE WOOD STAKES Three-Year-Olds • One Mile

NOMINATIONS CLOSE SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 3

P.O. Box 130, Laurel, Maryland 20725 (800) 638-1859 • (301) 725-0400 • Fax (301) 725-4561 Georganne Hale, Director of Racing/Racing Secretary Coleman E. "Coley" Blind, Stakes Coordinator

POINT TO REMEMBER PONT DU GARD POINT GUARD PONY UP PRAETORIAN PRESENCE OF MIND PRESIDIO PRINCE LUCKY PRINCIPE GUILHERME PRIVATE EYE PROLIFIC PROMISES FULFILLED PSYCHO DAR PSYCHOANALYZE PUBILIUS SYRUS PURE SHOT QUALITY ROLLS QUIP RAVEN CREEK REAL STORY REDATORY REGAL LOOK REGAL QUALITY REGULATE RENAISANCE FROLIC RESTORING HOPE RERIDE RETIREMENT FUND RIDE TO THE WIRE RIVER BOYNE RIVER FRONT RIVINGTON ROAMING UNION ROARING LION RUBUS

275 N/A 250 250 300 300 225 125 20 250 125 65 300 300 150 250 400 125 N/A N/A N/A 250 250 75 N/A 60 100 125 150 N/A 250 150 300 125 300

Jerkens Correas Baltas Pletcher Mandella Weaver Walsh L Jones Asmussen McGee Stidham Romans Miyadi Lynch Cerin Asmussen McPeek Brisset Mullins Correas Dupuy N/A Pletcher Baffert Fawkes Baffert Asmussen Asmussen Cecil Mullins N/A Motion Breen Gosden Bauer

Point of Entry ** Wants longer than fall debut. Liaison ** Turfer a cut below in stakes. Concord Point * Struggling in maiden ranks. Aikenite *** Versatile sort has + options. Tiznow * 2nd dam won Test/Alabama. Trappe Shot * NY-bred out since Tremont 6th. Speightstown * Nothing since poor Sept CD bow. Corinthian *** PA Nursery champ gets FG shot. Tapit ***** 2-2 future star out of G1 winner. Midnight Lute *** Chased ‘Principe; depth at FG. Bernardini ** Out since Bel debut win in Sept. Shackleford *** KJC 3rd; dam was good sprinter. Storm Wolf * MCL/STR ALW-type sprinting. Overanalyze ** Sanford 3rd didn’t develop fall. Candy Ride *** Won Eddie Logan on turf; dirt? Fast Bullet ** Absent since Spa debut 6F win. Quality Road ** Didn’t show enough in Fall tries. Distorted Humor **** Much better than KJF trip/result. Old Fashioned ** Downhill grad Jan 1; dirt route? Fast Bullet ** Wired MSW Tam vs. big names. Oratory ** Local SW retreated Springboard. Tiznow * ½ to Protonico yet to log work. Quality Road ** Tam debut 2nd mid-Dec. Quality Road ** ½ Honorable Duty dull Lrc bow. Paynter ** Minor SW in long 2YO season. Giant’s Causeway *** Promising debut 2nd in Dec. Candy Ride *** Versatile early bloom; KJC 6th. Eskendereya *** ½ Barbados rolled in FG route. Archarcharch ** AWOL since July Lrc debut win. Dandy Man ** Romping SA 9F-T grad; turf ped. War Front ** Havre de Grace son; Farm drills. To Honor and Serve ** Del winner o/o fast sprint mare. Union Rags ** Sapling 4th still dabbling MSWs. Kitten’s Joy *** G2 winner w/ turfy US pedigree. Majestic Warrior ** Kee sprint winner stays short.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

GREYVITOS San Luis Rey fire survivor staked his claim in 2-turn Springboard Mile as a road warrior after winning Del Marâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Bob Hope.

McKINZIE Los Al Futurity bumper cars produced as many questions as answers for DQ winner as well as Solimini and Instilled Regard.

Get weekly scouting reports and updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

RUGGERO RUN AWAY RUNAWAY GHOST RUNAWAY SATURDAY SALMANAZAR SANDVILLE SAN ELIJO SANTIAMEN SARGEANT DRIVE SAXON WARRIOR SCRAPPER SEABHAC SEA FOAM SERENGETI SEVEN TRUMPETS SHANGHAI SCHWARTZ SHANGROYAL SHIVERMETIMBERS SHEKKY SHEBAZ SIDNEY'S RANSOM SILENT STING SIOUX NATION SIPPIN FIRE SIR SAHIB SLOT SMASH WILLIAMS SMOKEM SNAPPER SINCLAIR SOLOMINI SO SUBLIME SOUL OF THE HERO SOUL P SAY SOUL STREIT SOUTACHE SOUPER SCAT DADDY

200 250 200 350 225 300 250 300 250 85 100 175 300 125 125 N/A 150 125 500 300 225 250 400 200 125 100 300 225 18 N/A 500 300 200 125 N/A

Shikato Callaghan Machowsky Cassidy Pletcher McPeek Stidham Sano McGaughey O’Brien Pletcher Pletcher Clement Baffert Romans Biancone Ward Hollenforfer A Rice Gorder S Attard O’Brien Bullock Wilkes Pletcher Pletcher Sherlock Asmussen Baffert Fawkes Dorochenko Milligan Baffert Nicks Casse

Fuji Kiseki

Run Away and Hide

Ghostzapper

Run Away and Hide

Shackleford Take Charge Indy Alternation Dialed In Tapit Deep Impact Orb Scat Daddy Medaglia d’Oro Algorithms Morning Line Shanghai Bobby Shanghai Bobby Shanghai Bobby Cape Blanco Sidney’s Candy Silent Name Scat Daddy Harbor the Gold Fort Larned Candy Ride More Than Ready Union Rags City Zip Curlin Wagon Limit Hero Of Order Soldat MacLean’s Music Backtalk Scat Daddy

* *** *** * ** ** ** ** ** *** * *** *** ** *** * ** *** * ** ** *** * *** *** ** *** *** ***** ** * ** ** *** *

Japan pts race winner in Nov. Multiple SW sprinter; distance ? SW at GG overmatched Lrc Fut. Absent since Aug debut 3rd. Kee spring winner out since Jun. Mdn modestly improved in Ky. Good route debut 2nd FG Dec. Beat locals in GP sprint ALW. Carriage Trail son 0-2 at age 2. G1/G2 winner Aidan’s best 3yo? AWOL since June debut 2nd GP. Health, dirt ? for Pilgrim champ. Solid NYB; class, distance tests? OK-bred out since Best Pal 6th. CD fall sprint ace; ½ Black Bear. Didn’t offer much in fall return. Absent since July Bel sprint win. Improving w/ Dmr score in Nov. PID stakes-placed on Tapeta. Decent player TP winter scene. Kingarvie winner aims at Plate. G1/G2 turf winner; grass dam. WA-bred SW a regional player. Fam Unique Bella, Unrivaled Belle.

Won’t be maiden long; sprint? Well-bred, out since June debut. Very consistent CA-bred sprints. KD Juv winner bred for short. 3 G1 placings; pedigree suits. Debut dusted FL-breds GP at 7F. Winter Kee works for debut. Troubled in Springboard Mile. Fast IN-bred out since Dmr Fut. Top dog in Fla Stallion Series. $950k 2yo buy off CD tab fall.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

5TH COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN PRESEASON ANNUAL

SOUPER SMART SOURDOUGH SPEED FRANCO SPORTING CHANCE STEEL SHOT ST PATRICK'S DAY STORM RUNNER STRIKE ME DOWN STRIKE POWER STRONGER STRONGER THAN EVER SUN CHASER SUNRISE JOURNEY SUNSET SEVEN SUPERNUMERARY SUPER SERMON SUPREME AURA SURPRISE WONDER TAKE CHARGE DUDE TAKE THAT FOR DATA TAKE THE ONE O ONE TALE OF VIENNA TALENT SCOUT TALON TAP DADDY TAP RAP STRIKE TARANIS TELEKINESIS TEMPESTAD TEXAS WEDGE THE PENTAGON THE TABULATOR THERAPIST THERMISTOR TIN BADGE

250 250 250 40 275 40 275 300 60 300 125 250 N/A 150 200 125 100 350 350 225 225 250 75 200 100 250 150 150 100 225 150 150 175 500 350

Casse Wilkes Delgado Lukas Casse Baffert Romans Motion Hennig Guillot McPeek N/A Mathis Hofmans Asmussen Pletcher Stidham Pletcher Campbell Cox Koriner Silvera Baffert Delacour Asmussen Jo Servis Baffert Casse Pletcher Miller O’Brien Rivelli Clement Caldwell Zielinski

Super Saver Point of Entry

** Damside leans sprint, win-early. *** Love female family; grad soon. Declaration of War *** Pulpit SW for connex that play. Tiznow **** G1 winner; knee chip surgery. Trappe Shot *** Sugar Bowl 2nd; distance the ? Pioneerof The Nile **** Pharoah full bro; out since Sep. Get Stormy *** Improved CD; GP ALW/stk next. Tapit *** Leading Queen’s Plate hopeful. Speightstown *** GP debut romp; dam ½ Adriano. Bodemeister ** Mixed results; GP class test. Congrats * Filly a longshot on Oaks trail. Ghostzapper * $800k 2yo buy yet to post drill. Good Journey ** Smashing GG sprint winner; far? Lucky Pulpit * CA-bred AWOL since July win. Successful Appeal * MCL grad outrun in ALW bid. Super Saver *** Nashua 2nd; dam ½ High Limit. Candy Ride *** Del debut winner; big FG works. Giant Surprise * NYB back on tab Fla long break. Take Charge Indy ** Arl-Wash Fut 4th tries OP path. Pioneerof The Nile ** Nov debut 2nd gets FG MSW try. Acclamation *** Out since G1 FrontRunner 3rd. Tale of Ekati ** Grey Stakes 3rd on Tapeta; dirt? New Year’s Day *** Spotty tab for Oct debut winner. Candy Ride *** Aqu grad; dam ½ Halfbridled. Tapit **** Turf or dirt, a legit FG threat. Tapit *** Remsen 5th had troubled break. Bernardini * Disappointed at Dmr; out since. Ghostzapper ** FG rookie; 2nd dam Gold Mover. Uncle Mo ** Absent since Sar Special 3rd. Colonel John ** Sprinter no match in G1 route. Galileo ** Irish-bred G3 winner for turf. Dialed In *** Iroquois champ 5th in BC Juvy. Freud *** 3-3 turfer w/ pair of stakes. Frost Giant * Regional SW; fringe at OP/Sun? The Deputy * Top Iowa-bred SW out since Aug.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

THE TABULATOR Iroquois winner showed he belonged in BC Juvenile, but still must make a bigger leap forward for Larry Rivelli.

TIZ MISCHIEF Caught our eye at Keeneland and underscored that intrigue with big effort in Kentucky Jockey Club. Contends wherever Romans puts him.

Get weekly scouting reports and updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

TITLE READY TIZ MISCHIEF TIZ OUR TURN TRANSGRESS TRAPPEZOID TRICKS TO DOO TRIPLE DOG DARE ULTIMATEENTICEMENT UNTAMED DOMAIN US NAVY FLAG VERBAL DEXTERITY VERBOTEN VICTORY KNIGHT VICTORY LANE VINO ROSSO VISION VOTING CONTROL VOUCH WAM BAM WANDOFUHR WAR TOM WARM THE VOICE WESTERDALE WONDER GADOT WORLD OF TROUBLE YEAR OF THE KITTEN ZATTER ZING ZANG ZULFIKHAR

275 40 300 125 300 75 300 250 50 150 200 200 275 275 40 75 150 175 300 300 200 150 275 200 200 175 100 150 50

Asmussen More Than Ready Romans Into Mischief Bindner Take Charge Indy Lukas Into Mischief Calhoun Trappe Shot Delacour Into Mischief Rodriguez Paynter Violette Drosselmeyer Motion Animal Kingdom O’Brien War Front Bolger Volalised Pierce Elusive Quality Rycroft Cape Canaveral McGaughey Tiznow Pletcher Curlin Baffert Orb C Brown Kitten’s Joy Delacour Yes It’s True Attfield Uncle Mo Langfuhr Keough Declaration of War Amoss Bolger Vocalised Morley Flat Out Casse Medaglia d’Oro O’Connell Kantharos Maker Kitten’s Joy Baffert Midnight Lute Asmussen Tapit Baffert Bodemeister

*** ***** * *** *** *** * * **** ** ** *** * *** **** *** **** *** ** * ** ** ** ** ** *** *** *** ***

2nd dam Personal Ensign; at OP. KJC 2nd among best Kee 2yos. Winless thru 5 tries, improving. Training OP; June debut CD 2nd. Solid sprinter in KY; FG bound. Top local for Tam Derby; route? May 27 foal trounced Remsen. NY-bred failed on stakes rise. As good as any if handles dirt. G1 turf winner quit in BC Juvy. Irish G1 winner bred all turf. Tam bid; Confessional 2nd dam. Regional player western Can. Nibbler at 2; full-bro Donworth. 2-2 at 2; dam ½ Commissioner. Nov grad; fem fam Editor’s Note BCJT 3rd; dam ½ DelCap winner. Full-sis won DelOaks; Tam bid. Out since Sept win; Q-Plate type. WO grad maybe for the Plate. Ky nibbler from good fem fam. G2-placed all turf via Ireland. ½ Rattlesnake Bridge pair 3rds. Filly took down Demoiselle. FSS runner-up bred to sprint. CD 9F-T debut winner now in FL. Dmr Fut 2nd; dam ½ to Monba. FG MSW winner going long. Jul debut winner 6

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of January 2, 2018 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

2018 Triple Crown Prep Season Schedule Stakes Mucho Macho Man Sham Jerome Smarty Jones Lecomte California Derby Frank Whiteley Riley Allison Derby Withers Holy Bull Robert B. Lewis Sam F. Davis San Vicente El Camino Real Derby Miracle Wood Hyacinth Southwest Cal Cup Derby Risen Star Gazebo Mine That Bird Derby Condition Stakes Patton Fountain of Youth Gotham Tampa Bay Derby San Felipe Rebel Spiral Private Terms UAE Derby Louisiana Derby Sunland Derby Burradon

Track Gulfstream Park Santa Anita Park Aqueduct Oaklawn Park Fair Grounds Golden Gate Fields Laurel Park Sunland Park Aqueduct Gulfstream Park Santa Anita Park Tampa Bay Downs Santa Anita Park Golden Gate Fields Laurel Park Tokyo Racecourse Oaklawn Park Santa Anita Fair Grounds Oaklawn Park Sunland Park Kempton (GB) Dundalk (Ire) Gulfstream Park Aqueduct Tampa Bay Downs Santa Anita Park Oaklawn Park Turfway Park Laurel Park Meydan Racecourse Fair Grounds Sunland Park Newcastle (GB)

Date Jan 6 Jan 6 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 20 Jan 20 Jan 27 Jan 28 Feb 3 Feb 3 Feb 3 Feb 10 Feb 10 Feb 17 Feb 17 Feb 19 Feb 19 Feb 19 Feb 24 Feb 24 Feb 25 Mar 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 10 Mar 10 Mar 10 Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 24 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 30

KD Points 0-0-0-0 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 0-0-0-0 10-4-2-1 0-0-0-0 30-12-6-3 10-4-2-1 0-0-0-0 50-20-10-5 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 20-8-4-2 20-8-4-2 50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5 20-8-4-2 0-0-0-0 100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 50-20-10-5 30-12-6-3

2018 Triple Crown Prep Season Schedule Florida Derby Wood Memorial Blue Grass Santa Anita Derby Bachelor Arkansas Derby Northern Spur Lexington Federico Tesio Kentucky Derby Peter Pan Preakness Belmont Stakes

Gulfstream Park Aqueduct Keeneland Santa Anita Park Oaklawn Park Oaklawn Park Oaklawn Park Keeneland Laurel Churchill Downs Belmont Park Pimlico Racecourse Belmont Park

Mar 31 Apr 7 Apr 7 Apr 7 Apr 12 Apr 14 Apr 14 Apr 14 Apr 21 May 5 May 12 May 19 Jun 9

100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 0-0-0-0 100-40-20-10 0-0-0-0 20-8-4-2 (Preak Win & In) n/a n/a n/a n/a

Laurel Park 2018 Winter/Spring Stakes

CLOSES ........... RUNS.................STAKE ..................................................... AGE .....................DISTANCE .......................PURSE

Sat., Jan. 6 ........Sat., Jan. 20 .......Fire Plug ..................................................... 4 & Up .................. 6 Furlongs ....................... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 6 ........Sat., Jan. 20 .......What A Summer ......................................... F&M 4 & Up.......... 6 Furlongs ....................... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 13 ......Sat., Jan. 27 .......Marshua ..................................................... Fillies 3-y-o ......... 6 Furlongs ....................... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 13 ......Sat., Jan. 27 .......Frank Whiteley, Jr. ..................................... 3-y-o .................... 7 Furlongs ....................... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 13 ......Sat., Jan. 27 .......Native Dancer ............................................ 4 & Up .................. About 11/16 Miles ........... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 13 ......Sat., Jan. 27 .......Nellie Morse ............................................... F&M 4 & Up.......... About 11/16 Miles ........... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Feb. 3 ........Sat., Feb. 17 .......Barbara Fritchie (Grade 2)......................... F&M 4 & Up.......... 7 Furlongs ....................... $300,000 Guaranteed Sat., Feb. 3 ........Sat., Feb. 17 .......General George (Grade 3) .......................... 4 & Up .................. 7 Furlongs ....................... $250,000 Guaranteed Sat., Feb. 3 ........Sat., Feb. 17 .......Wide Country (Listed)................................ Fillies 3-y-o ......... 7 Furlongs ....................... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Feb. 3 ........Sat., Feb. 17 .......John B. Campbell....................................... 4 & Up .................. 11/8 Miles........................ $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Feb. 3 ........Sat., Feb. 17 .......Maryland Racing Media ............................ F&M 4 & Up.......... About 11/16 Miles ........... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Feb. 3 ........Sat., Feb. 17 .......Miracle Wood ............................................. 3-y-o .................... 1 Mile ............................... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Mar. 3 ........Sat., Mar. 17 .......Beyond the Wire (formerly Caesar’s Wish)Fillies 3-y-o ......... 1 Mile ............................... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Mar. 3 ........Sat., Mar. 17 .......Private Terms ............................................. 3-y-o .................... About 11/16 Miles ........... $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Mar. 3 ........Sat., Mar. 17 .......Harrison Johnson Memorial...................... 3 & Up .................. 11/8 Miles........................ $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Mar. 3 ........Sat., Mar. 17 .......Conniver (MD-Bred or MD-Sired).............. F&M 4 & Up.......... 7 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Mar. 3 ........Sat., Mar. 17 .......Not For Love (MD-Bred or MD-Sired)........ 4 & Up .................. 6 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 7 ........Sat., Apr. 21 ........Federico Tesio (Winner Free Preakness Entry)* .. 3-y-o .................... 11/8 Miles........................ $125,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 7 ........Sat., Apr. 21 ........Weber City Miss (Winner Free BES Entry) ........ Fillies 3-y-o ......... About 11/16 Miles ........... $125,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 7 ........Sat., Apr. 21 ........Primonetta ................................................. F&M 3 & Up.......... 6 Furlongs ....................... $100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 7 ........Sat., Apr. 21 ........Dahlia ......................................................... F&M 3 & Up.......... 1 Mile (Turf) ..................... $100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 7 ........Sat., Apr. 21 ........Henry S. Clark ............................................ 3 & Up .................. 1 Mile (Turf) ..................... $100,000 Guaranteed * Free Preakness Entry applies to Triple Crown Nominated Horses ONLY

Visit laurelpark.com for full racing schedule.

P.O. Box 130, Laurel, Maryland 20725 800.638.1859 • 301.725.0400 • Fax 301.725.4561 Coleman "Coley" Blind, Stakes Coordinator

SHAM STAKES January 6, 2018

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The first route prep leading up to the Santa Anita Derby, the Sham has averaged 6 starters per race the last 6 years. The Los Alamitos Futurity has been run 3-4 weeks prior to the Sham in recent years. Though the Sham inaugurated in 2001, it has been a January mile since 2011 after once being a 9furlong test later in the meet. The race has become a middle-distance haven with eventual Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winners Tapizar and Goldencents among its alumni, as well as BC Sprint champ Secret Circle. The Sham is named for the 1973 star 3-year-old who ran second to Secretariat in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Gormley bounced back from a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

disappointment to put himself back near the top of the west coast crop. He out-dueled even-money favorite American Anthem as the two chalks put 13 lengths on the rest of the field. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Gormley and Term of Art exited last year’s Sham and would rep the race in all 3 Triple Crown legs between them. The race has produced a pair of Triple Crown entrants each of the past 2 years – following Collected and Laoban in the ’16 Preakness.

K y Derby : Goldencents (17th, ’13), Gormley (9th, ’17)

Preakness : Goldencents (5th, ’13), Collected (10th, ’16), Laoban (6th, ’16), Term of Art (10th, ’17)

Belm ont : Gormley (4th, ’17)

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Sham Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Gormley Espinoza Shirreffs 102 Collected M. Garcia Baffert 89 Calculator Trujillo Miller 100 Midnight Hawk Smith Baffert 97 Goldencents Krigger O’Neill 93 Out of Bounds Gomez Harty 105 Tapizar Gomez Asmussen 103 Alphie’s Bet Solis Barba 94 The Pamplemousse Solis Canani 97 Colonel John Gomez Harty 90

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Sham Stakes Winners Gormley 7th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (SA) Collected 3rd Cecil B. DeMille (Dmr) Calculator 2nd FrontRunner (SA) Midnight Hawk 1st Maiden (Hol/BHP) Goldencents 1st Delta Jackpot (DeD) Out of Bounds 1st Maiden (Hol/BHP) Tapizar 1st Maiden (CD) Alphie’s Bet 1st Maiden (SA) The Pamplemousse 1st San Rafael (SA) Colonel John 2nd CashCall Futurity (Hol/BHP)

INSIDE THE SHAM STAKES: Horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile have won 7 straight. 9 of last 13 Sham winners exited prep victories (4 of last 8 exiting maiden breakers). Since moving to January, Sham winners have made 1, 4, 2, 4, 4, 2 and 3 prior career starts. Trainer Bob Baffert has 2 wins & 4 seconds in past 5 editions in which he’s had a starter (second last year American Anthem).

JEROME STAKES January 13, 2018 - rescheduled

Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: New York’s first of 4 route dirt preps that culminate in the Wood Memorial. This 1 mile and 70-yard affair can be largely impacted by Mother Nature. A mild winter increases its quality; a nasty winter diminishes it to nearly all locals. The race lost its graded status for 2018 after being a G3 event. The traditional fall meet race moved to spring in 2011 and then to its current winter position in 2013. Locally based outfits have won 4 of 5 editions since the January calendar move. The Jerome has been more apt to produce top sprinters like G1 Vosburgh winner Takaful a year ago, as well as Vyjack, Discreet Cat, The Lumber Guy and Silver Train, no matter the date it has been contested. Originally scheduled for Jan. 1 with makeup date Jan. 13 announced just prior to our publishing time.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Even-money favorite Takaful set the pace and stopped to finish last in a puzzling effort. Maryland invader El Areeb drew away by 11 ¼ lengths with a first-over run. He would go on to win the Withers and finish third in the Gotham before being sidelined by injury. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Only 2 horses, Vyjack and Matuszak, have made Triple Crown race bids since the Jerome moved to January 5 years ago. It had produced a BC Sprint winner (The Lumber Guy, ’12) and a Preakness third during its 2-year run in April. TC alumni since 2011 include:

Ky Derby: Vyjack (18th, ’13). Preakness: Astrology (3rd, ’11). Belmont: Vyjack (8th, ’13),

Matuszak (DNF, ’14).

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’09 ’08 ’07

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Jerome Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) El Areeb T. McCarthy C. Lynch 100 Flexibility I. Ortiz Jr. C. Brown 92 El Kabeir C.C. Lopez Terranova 101 Noble Moon I. Ortiz Jr. Gyarmati 95 Vyjack C. Velasquez R. Rodriguez 93 The Lumber Guy Luzzi Hushion 96 Adios Charlie Maragh Hough 101 Girolamo A. Garcia bin Suroor 105 Tale of Ekati C. Velasquez Tagg 100 Daaher Luzzi McLaughlin 109

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’09 ’08 ’07

Winning Preps for Last 10 Jerome Winners El Areeb 1st James Lewis (Lrl) Flexibility 2nd Remsen Stakes (Aqu) El Kabeir 1st Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD) Noble Moon 3rd Nashua Stakes (Aqu) Vyjack 1st Overnight Stakes (Aqu) The Lumber Guy 5th Wood Memorial (Aqu) Adios Charlie 1st Allowance (GP) Girolamo Race held after the Triple Crown. Tale of Ekati Race held after the Triple Crown. Daaher Race held after the Triple Crown.

INSIDE THE JEROME STAKES: Five of the last 6 winners have been close to the pace (Flexibility ’16 rallied from 5 lengths as the only victor to show a closing style). Six straight winners have exited stakes or overnight stakes attempts. Parx raiders aren’t common, but have had a solid knack for placing on the exotics tickets when they show up.

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2018 RACING SEASON JANUARY 12 – APRIL 14

SMARTY JONES STAKES January 15, 2018

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: While not a graded stakes, the Smarty Jones offers a kickoff to Oaklawn’s highly successful 4-race series for 3YOs. The 2-turn mile utilizes the sixteenth pole finish line, but deep closers Far Right, Caleb’s Posse, Will Take Charge and Flat Out all dot the winner’s roll call. Held on the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday card, the Smarty Jones this year will be the only prep of the weekend nationally. The Smarty Jones is named for the 2004 Ky Derby and Preakness winner who rose to stardom via Oaklawn’s series of preps. He earned a $5 million Centennial bonus during the track’s 100th season by winning the Arkansas Derby & Kentucky Derby.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Uncontested, the 6-5 favorite, romped wire-to-wire over a sloppy track to score by 5 ¼ lengths. Second choice Petrov rounded out a chalky exacta at 9-5 odds. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Success here pales to its fellow graded prep brethren at OP. In fact, the past 2 editions have not produced a TC series starter.

K y Derby : Mr. Z (13th, ’15), Far

Right (15th, ’15), Will Take Charge (8th, ’13), Optimizer (11th, ’12), Archarcharch (dnf, ’11)

Preakness : Mr. Z (5th, ’15), Will

Take Charge (7th, ’13), Optimizer (6th, ’12)

Belm ont : Will Take Charge (10th, ’13), Optimizer (10th, ’12)

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Smarty Jones Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Uncontested Hill Catalano Discreetness Court Fires Far Right Smith Moquett Tanzanite Cat Arroyo Autrey Will Take Charge Court Lukas Junebugred Bravo Hobby Caleb’s Posse Razo DK Von Hemel Dryfly Borel Whiting Flat Out Julio Garcia Dickey

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Smarty Jones Winners Uncontested 4th Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) Discreetness 1st Springboard Mile (RP) Far Right 3rd Delta Downs Jackpot (DeD) Tanzanite Cat 1st Maiden (FG) Will Take Charge 2nd Springboard Mile (RP) Junebugred 1st Maiden (Aqu) Caleb’s Posse 7th Springboard Mile (RP) Dryfly 1st Allowance (CD) Flat Out 1st Maiden (FG)

Figure) 97 92 92 92 93 91 85 95 96

INSIDE THE SMARTY JONES STAKES: Remington Park’s Springboard Mile in December has been a strong launching pad for the Smarty Jones, delivering the 2011, 2013 and 2016 winners as well as the 2014 and 2015 runner-ups and last year’s third-place finisher. Uncontested snapped a 6-race losing streak for favorites in this race last year, upping the chalk to 9: 3-0-4 in the Smarty Jones.

LECOMTE STAKES January 20, 2018

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The Lecomte is held 5 days after Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones and both races compete for many of the same-type runners and each are middle-distance races around 2 turns. The Lecomte has an edge in that it’s graded, while the Southwest is not. At a mile and 70 yards in distance, the Lecomte serves as a similar rehearsal for the Risen Star (1-1/16 miles) en route to the Louisiana Derby (1-1/8 miles). For many young horses, this will be their first test of a demanding, lengthy stretch run at FG. In addition, it can re-route shorter-distance types like Runhappy & Fish Trappe Road. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Churchill returnees ran 1-2 as Guest Suite reported home a popular winner as the 5-2 favorite. Runner-up Untrapped kicked off a campaign that would lead him to the Kentucky Derby. Guest Suite,

however, failed to develop, and wound up losing his final 4 outings on the year. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Oxbow is the only Lecomte alum in the last decade to find Triple Crown success, winning the 2013 Preakness. This race’s TC starters since ’07 include:

K y Derby : Untrapped (12th, ’17),

Destin (6th, ’16) Tom Tom (8th, ’16), Tom’s Ready (12th), War Story (16th, ’15), Vicar’s In Trouble (19th, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13), Oxbow (6th, ’13), Friesan Fire (18th, ’09), Hard Spun (2nd, ’07),

Preakness : Oxbow (1st, ’13),

Friesan Fire (10th, ‘09), Hard Spun (3rd, ’07)

Belm ont : Destin (2nd, ’16), Hard Spun (4th, ’07)

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Lecomte Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Guest Suite Albarado Howard 93 Mo Tom Lanerie Amoss 94 International Star Mena Maker 94 Vicar’s In Trouble Napravnik Maker 88 Oxbow Court Lukas 94 Mr Bowling Albarado L. Jones 95 Wilkinson Gomez Howard 92 Ron the Greek Graham Amoss 98 Friesan Fire Saez L. Jones 97 Z Fortune Bridgmohan Asmussen 99

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Lecomte Stakes Winners Guest Suite 1st Allowance (CD) Mo Tom 3rd Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD) International Star 4th Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD) Vicar’s In Trouble 1st Maiden (FG) Oxbow 4th CashCall Futurity (BHP) Mr Bowling 3rd Iroquois Stakes (CD) Wilkinson 3rd Allowance (FG) Ron the Greek 4th Springboard Mile (RP) Friesan Fire 2nd Allowance (FG) Z Fortune 1st Allowance (Aqu)

INSIDE THE LECOMTE STAKES: Three straight Lecomte winners made their 3YO debuts exiting Churchill fall meet starts. 12 of the last 16 Lecomte winners were less than 3 lengths behind after the opening half-mile, though Mo Tom and Guest Suite have closed from deeper in recent editions. 14 of the last 16 Lecomte winners were 5-1 or less. Since ’07, the Lecomte has produced at least 1 Triple Crown starter every year except ’12.

WITHERS STAKES February 3, 2018

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: NYRA’s path includes the Jerome, Withers, Gotham and Wood Memorial. This second leg moved on the stakes schedule 6 years ago after several years as an April stakes and a year in asylum (‘11). Trainers Todd Pletcher and Kiaran McLaughlin have combined to win 6 of the last 10 editions of the Withers (and McLaughlin was second a year ago). They have supported the race no matter where it falls on the calendar. The Withers had easily its biggest field last year (10) since becoming a winter event (6,8,6,6,6 starters in prior years held in this timeslot). MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Jerome winner El Areeb made a second successful Maryland raid at the meet with a 4 ¼-length romp as the 1-2 favorite, defeating a solid cast that included True

Timber and J Boys Echo (the eventual Gotham winner). Four of the top 5 finishers exited January races at the Big A, including 3 from the Jerome. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: When in April, Withers propelled horses like Bernardini and Scrappy T to strong Preakness showings. In 2012-’17, as a winter prep:

Ky Derby: J Boys Echo (10th, ’17),

Tencendur (17th, ’15), Samraat (5th, ’14), Uncle Sigh (14th, ’13), Alpha (12th, ’12), Revolutionary (3rd, ’13).

Preakness: none. Belmont: J Boys Echo (9th, ’17)

Samraat (6th, ’14), Revolutionary (5th, ’13).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Withers Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 El Areeb McCarthy Lynch 99 ’16 Sunny Ridge Franco Ja Servis 92 ’15 Far From Over Franco Pletcher 96 ’14 Samraat J. Ortiz Violette 99 ’13 Revolutionary Castellano Pletcher 96 ’12 Alpha Dominguez McLaughlin 100 ’10 Afleet Again Mariano Reid 109 ’09 Mr. Fantasy Migliore McLaughlin 103 ’08 Harlem Rocker Coa Pletcher 96 ’07 Divine Park Garcia McLaughlin 97 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07

Winning Preps for Last 10 Withers Stakes Winners El Areeb 1st Jerome (Aqu) Sunny Ridge 2nd Delta Downs Jackpot (DeD) Far From Over 1st Maiden (Aqu) Samraat 1st Damon Runyon (Aqu) Revolutionary 1st Maiden (Aqu) Alpha 1st Count Fleet (Aqu) Afleet Again 10th Gotham (Aqu) Mr. Fantasy 3rd Gotham (Aqu) Harlem Rocker 1st Allowance (GP) Divine Park 1st Allowance (Kee)

INSIDE THE WITHERS STAKES: Heavy favorites have been the recent norm as its 6 winter-time editions have had chalks at 1-5, 1-5, 1-2, 3-5, 3-5, 6-5 (El Areeb won last year, snapping 2-year losing streak for odds-on favorites). Since moving to January, none of its 6 editions have been won wire to wire, while Far From Over and Revolutionary notably scored in last-to-first fashion.

LEWIS MEMORIAL February 3, 2018

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Formerly the Santa Catalina Stakes, the Lewis Memorial follows the Sham on the SoCal path as the second of four major preps leading into the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Its 1-1/16 miles distance and spacing from December’s G1 Los Al Futurity and November’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile should make it an effective starting out point, but its impact has been a fraction of March’s San Felipe at the same trip. Early speed has been very effective in this race with smaller field sizes. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Two-time defending champ Bob Baffert was conspicuously absent among the 5 entrants, leaving an unproven cast. Fall maiden breaker Royal Mo stepped up in class to wire the field in his stakes debut.

Among those in his wake was eventual Blue Grass winner Irap, the only horse in the Lewis to make a Kentucky Derby bid in ‘17. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Ferdinand and I’ll Have Another are the most recognizable winners of this prep to taste spring success. The 2015 edition did include Kentucky Derby 2-3 finishers Firing Line and Dortmund. From 19932017, its TC impact has been fleeting. Top performances include:

K y Derby : Firing Line (2nd, ’15),

Dortmund (3rd, ’15), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Pioneeerof The Nile (2nd, ’08), Charismatic (1st, ’99)

Preakness : I’ll Have Another (1st,

’12), Charismatic (1st, ’99)

Belm ont : None.

Last 10 Lewis Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Royal Mo Mor Spirit Dortmund Candy Boy Flashback I’ll Have Another Anthony’s Cross Caracortado Pioneerof the Nile Crown of Thorns

Espinoza Stevens Garcia Stevens Leparoux Gutierrez Rosario Atkinson Gomez Espinoza

Shirreffs Baffert Baffert Sadler Baffert O’Neill Harty Machowsky Baffert Mandella

95 99 101 97 95 102 93 96 (s) 96 (s) 94 (s)

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Lewis Stakes Winners Royal Mo 1st Maiden (Dmr) Mor Spirit 1st Los Alamitos Futurity (Lrc) Dortmund 1st Los Alamitos Futurity (Lrc) Candy Boy 2nd CashCall Futurity (BHP/Hol) Flashback 1st Maiden (BHP/Hol) I’ll Have Another 6th Hopeful (SAR) Anthony’s Cross 3rd Sham (SA) Caracortado 1st Cal Breeders Champ (SA) Pioneerof the Nile 1st CashCall Futurity (Hol) Crown of Thorns 1st Maiden (SA)

INSIDE THE LEWIS MEMORIAL STAKES: 5 of the last 13 winners exited the Los Alamitos Futurity (formerly the Hollywood/CashCall Futurity), including 3 of the last 4 … 11 of the last 13 Lewis winners exited serious stakes preps, while field sizes have been limited (5-7-4-8-7-6-5 starters the last 7 years). The race is named for the late Bob Lewis, who, with his wife, Beverly, raced and campaigned such stalwarts as Silver Charm.

HOLY BULL February 3, 2018

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The first of 3 graded dirt routes on the Gulfstream trail, the Holy Bull offers the first 2-turn test for the circuit. Over the past decade, this race has been moved several times in distance and date. It’s morphed into popular 3YO return date for star juveniles, many away since the Breeders’ Cup. Notable returnees here in recent years include champions Classic Empire, Shanghai Bobby and Hansen, as well as Cairo Prince and Mohaymen. With a short run to the first turn and a sixteenth-pole finish line, early speed and post position can be important factors. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Irish War Cry upset champion Classic Empire and local stalwart Gunnevera, while making his graded stakes debut a wire-to-wire score. The top 3 would all make their way to the Kentucky Derby,

and the ’17 Holy Bull would produce the eventual runner-ups in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes (Classic Empire, Irish War Cry). TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since its move to earlier in the meet, Holy Bull alumni have yet to win in TC. Several top-4 finishes have occurred in classics during that span, however (2009-’17):

K y Derby : Classic Empire (4th,

’17), Mohaymen (4th, ’16), Frosted (4th, ’15), Mucho Macho Man (3rd, ’11).

Preakness : Classic Empire (2nd,

’17), Itsmyluckyday (2nd, ’13), Dialed In (4th, ’11), Jackson Bend (3rd, ’10).

Belm ont : Irish War Cry (2nd, ’17),

Frosted (2nd, ’15), Keen Ice (3rd, ’15), Wicked Strong (4th, ’14).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Holy Bull Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Irish War Cry Rosario Motion 102 ’16 Mohaymen Alvarado McLaughlin 97 ’15 Upstart J. Ortiz Violette 105 ’14 Cairo Prince L. Saez McLaughlin 98 ’13 Itsmyluckyday Trujillo Plesa 106 ’12 Algorithms Castellano Pletcher 105 ’11 Dialed In Leparoux Zito 104 ’10 Winslow Homer Dominguez T. Dutrow 95 ’09 Saratoga Sinner Leparoux Kenneally 102 ’08 Hey Byrn C. Lopez Plesa 90 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Holy Bull Stakes Winners Irish War Cry 1st Marylander (Lrl) Mohaymen 1st Remsen (Aqu) Upstart 3rd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (SA) Cairo Prince 2nd Remsen (Aqu) Itsmyluckyday 1st Gulfstream Derby (GP) Algorithms 1st Allowance (GP) Dialed In 1st Maiden (CD) Winslow Homer 1st Allowance (Pha/Prx) Saratoga Sinner 1st Maiden (GP) Hey Byrn 1st Allowance (GP)

INSIDE THE HOLY BULL STAKES: 12 straight winners exit Top-3 finishes in their most-recent prep, including 10 last-out winners. The last 5 years – when the race has been 1-1/16 miles around 2 turns – all 4 winners were within 1-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. Only 3 of the 15 trifecta placings the past 5 years have been secured by horses who had exited preps at the local GP meet – 12 were shippers/layoff types.

SAN VICENTE STAKES February 10, 2018

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: As a 7-furlong sprint, the San Vicente is not part of the Kentucky Derby points chase officially. Still, its impact on the west coast path can’t be ignored. You only have to go back to 2016 to recall a Nyquist-Exaggerator preview of the eventual Kentucky Derby exacta and Derby-Preakness sweep.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Iliad gave Doug O’Neill back-toback wins in the San Vicente, defeating a cast that included eventual Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile champ Battle of Midway.

Field size has been an issue with 8 straight editions having 7 or less starters (just 5 a year ago). Trainers Doug O’Neill, Bob Baffert and John Sadler have teamed to win the last 9 San Vicente editions. Baffert has won the race 9 times since 1997, when Silver Charm was the type of headliner who used this race to open his season.

’17), Nyquist (1st, ’16), Exaggerator (2nd, ’16), Creative Cause (5th, ’12), Sidney’s Candy (17th, ’10), Sinister Minister (16th, ’06), Don’t Get Mad (4th, ’05), Imperialism (3rd, ‘04).

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since 2004, here’s the run-down:

Ky Derby: Battle of Midway (3rd,

Preakness: Exaggerator (1st, ’16),

Nyquist (3rd, ’16), Creative Cause (3rd, ’12), Sway Away (12th, ’11), Imperialism (5th, ’04).

Belmont: Exaggerator (11th,’16).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 San Vicente Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Iliad Prat O’Neill 97 ’16 Nyquist Gutierrez O’Neill 103 ’15 Lord Nelson Bejarano Baffert 98 ’14 Kobe’s Back Rosario Sadler 97 ’13 Shakin It Up Flores Baffert 92 ’12 Drill Garcia Baffert 103 ’11 The Factor Garcia Baffert 104 ’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 95 ’09 Evita Argentina Gomez Sadler 93 ’08 Georgie Boy Bejarano Walsh 106 Winning Preps for Last 10 San Vicente Stakes Winners ’17 Iliad 1st Maiden (Lrc) ’16 Nyquist 1st Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Kee) ’15 Lord Nelson 5th Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD) ’14 Kobe’s Back 10th CashCall Futurity (BHP/Hol) ’13 Shakin It Up 3rd Hollywood Prevue (BHP/Hol) ’12 Drill 5th San Pedro (SA) ’11 The Factor 1st Maiden (SA) ’10 Sidney’s Candy 4th Allowance (SA) ’09 Evita Argentina 2nd Santa Ynez (SA) ’08 Georgie Boy 1st Del Mar Futurity (Dmr) INSIDE THE SAN VICENTE STAKES: Two of the last 3 BC Juvenile winners have returned in the San Vicente (Texas Red, ‘2nd, ’15) and Nyquist (1st, ’16). 5 straight San Vicente winners were making their first start of the Santa Anita meet. 6 of the last 9 San Vicente winners exited defeats and righted the ship with 4 of those coming off of off-the-board finishes.

SAM F. DAVIS February 11, 2018

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Held 4 weeks before the Tampa Bay Derby, the Sam F. Davis is the track’s lone 2-turn prep for its spring main event. It has produced a 1-2 finisher in each of the past 2 editions of the Belmont Stakes and is a race trending back in the right direction after a dry spell. The Davis once benefitted when the Fountain of Youth was elongated to 9 furlongs and the classier Florida shippers from Gulfstream Park found this spot more suitable early in the season at 1-1/16 miles. Inaugurated in 1981, only 6 Davis winners have gone on to win the Tampa Bay Derby. . MOST RECENT RENEWAL: McCraken rallied as the 3-2 favorite to capture his 3YO return by 1 ½ lengths over eventual Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit. The top 3

finishers would all go on to perform in the Kentucky Derby in a year when the Davis became an official Derby points-chase race. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Davis alumni in TC races since ’08:

Ky Derby: Tapwrit (6th, ’17),

McCraken (8th, ’17), State of Honor (19th, ’17), Destin (6th, ’16), Vinceremos (17th, ’14), Falling Sky (19th, ’13), Prospective (18th, ’12), Musket Man (3rd, ’09), General Quarters (10th, ’09), Big Truck (18th, ’08), Smooth Air (11th, ’08), Z Humor (14th, ’08).

Preakness: Divining Rod (3rd, ’15),

Schoolyard Dreams (9th, ’10), Musket Man (3rd, ’09), General Quarters (9th, ’09).

Belmont: Tapwrit (1st, ’17), Destin (2nd, ’16), Gettysburg (8th, ’16), Uptowncharlybrown (12th, ’10).

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Davis Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) McCraken Hernandez Wilkes 99 Destin Velazquez Pletcher 100 Ocean Knight I. Ortiz McLaughlin 95 Vinceremos Prado Pletcher 92 Falling Sky J.Espinoza Terranova 92 Battle Hardened Leparoux Kenneally 91 Brethren Dominguez Pletcher 94 Rule Velazquez Pletcher 104 General Quarters Lopez M. Miller 100 Fierce Wind C. Velasquez Zito 96

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Davis Stakes Winners McCraken 1st Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) Destin 4th Lecomte (FG) Ocean Knight 1st Maiden (Aqu) Vinceremos 1st Maiden (GP) Falling Sky 1st Allowance (Tam) Battle Hardened 2nd Maiden (GP) Brethren 1st Allowance (CD) Rule 1st Delta Jackpot (DeD) General Quarters 2nd Pasco (Tam) Fierce Wind 1st Allowance (GP)

INSIDE THE SAM F. DAVIS STAKES: Todd Pletcher has won this race 6 times in the last 12 years. In fact, 9 of the last 12 Davis editions have been won by NYRA-based trainers (also 3 from Kentucky). There’s a real tendency for the public to over-value a race over the always-labeled “quirky” Tampa Bay Downs surface, so be sure to note that only 2 of the past 12 Davis winners had tuned-up locally. Forwardly placed horses have dominated the recent history of this race, though McCraken proved best rallying a year ago.

EL CAMINO REAL DERBY February 17, 2018

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Northern California’s top stakes en route to the Triple Crown was downgraded this year to listed status from its prior G3 perch. The El Camino Real typically gets its field from the local California Derby, from class risers at the meet and a smattering of secondtier Santa Anita sophomores. It’s among the earliest 1-1/8 miles distance tests of the season and the mileage here often gives its winners a sense of belonging on the trail as trips extend. It’s the only Triple Crown trail race in the US on the Tapeta surface. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: For the third straight year, no El Camino Real Derby alumnus went on to compete in the Triple Crown. Zakaroff pulled the upset as the longest shot on the board at 48-1 over even-money Santa Anita

raider Ann Arbor Eddie for Doug O’Neill, who was DQ’d from 2nd for interference. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since going to synthetic in 2009, not a single El Camino Real Derby alumnus has hit the board in a Triple Crown race. That’s a far cry from the ‘dirty’ 1990s that included Charismatic, Tabasco Cat, Casual Lies and Cavonnier. Here’s the Tapeta Era’s ledger:

K y Derby : Chocolate Candy (5th,

’09), Comma to the Top (19th, ’11), Daddy Nose Best (10th, ’12), Dance With Fate (6th, ’14).

Preakness : Daddy Nose Best (9th, ’12).

Belm ont : Chocolate Candy (9th,

’09).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 El Camino Real Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Zakaroff Frey Specht 90 ’16 Frank Conversation Gutierrez O’Neill 91 ’15 Metaboss Solis Bonde 93 ’14 Tamarando R. Baze Hollendorfer 90 ’13 Dice Flavor Valdivia Gallagher 93 ’12 Daddy Nose Best Leparoux Asmussen 92 ’11 Silver Medallion R. Baze Asmussen 91 ’10 Connemara R. Baze Pletcher 85 ’09 Chocolate Candy R. Baze Hollendorfer 88 ’08 Autism Awareness Contreras Vallejo 94 (d) Winning Preps for Last 10 El Camino Real Derby Winners ’17 Zakaroff 5th California Derby (GG) ’16 Frank Conversation 1st California Derby (GG) ’15 Metaboss 1st Maiden (SA) ’14 Tamarando 2nd Cal Cup Derby (SA) ’13 Dice Flavor 3rd Allowance (SA) ’12 Daddy Nose Best 1st Eddie Logan (SA) ’11 Silver Medallion 1st Eddie Logan (SA) ’10 Connemara 2nd California Derby (GG) ’09 Chocolate Candy 1st California Derby (GG) ’08 Autism Awareness 1st Maiden (GG) INSIDE THE EL CAMINO REAL DERBY: 4 of the last 8 winners have exited the California Derby, including the last 2 – Zakaroff and Frank Conversation. Since going to Tapeta in 2009, all 9 El Camino Real Derby winners have rallied from at least fourth place or farther behind in the early going. With the race losing graded status in 2018, its future in the Kentucky Derby official points chase would seem to be in jeopardy, barring big production this year.

SOUTHWEST STAKES February 19, 2018

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The second of Oaklawn’s 4 route preps leading up to the Triple Crown, the Southwest takes place President’s Day Monday and assumes center stage nationally. The first graded stakes on the local menu, it was extended to 1-1/16 miles from a flat mile in 2013. Unlike the Smarty Jones Stakes before it, the Southwest utilizes the full stretch and traditional finish line. Huge fields are the norm since 2008 – each year featuring 10 or more starters (12 a year ago; split divisions in 2012 with 21 entrants). MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Unbeaten One Liner moved to 3for-3 in a 3 1/2-length score that would be his final start of 2017

before getting injured. Among those chasing was Lookin At Lee, the eventual 2nd-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby and fellow Triple Crown performer Hence. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Recent Southwest alumni include elder stars Will Take Charge, Caleb’s Posse and Flat Out. The Southwest’s highlights since ’04:

K y Derby : Smarty Jones (1st, ’04),

Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Hard Spun (2nd, ’07), Denis of Cork (3rd, ’08), Lookin At Lee (2nd, ’17).

Preakness : Smarty Jones (1st,

’04), Hard Spun (3rd, ’07), Ride on Curlin (2nd, ’14).

Belm ont : Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Southwest Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 One Liner Velazquez Pletcher 101 ’16 Suddenbreakingnews L. Quinonez DK Von Hemel 94 ’15 Far Right Smith Moquett 93 ’14 Tapiture Santana Asmussen 99 ’13 Super Ninety Nine Bejarano Baffert 101 ’12 Castaway (split div) Bejarano Baffert 97 ’12 Secret Circle (split div) Bejarano Baffert 103 ’11 Archarcharch Court Fires 93 ’10 Conveyance Garcia Baffert 102 ’09 Old Fashioned Dominguez L. Jones 97 ’08 Denis of Cork Albarado D. Carroll 99 Winning Preps for Last 10 Southwest Stakes Winners ’17 One Liner 1st Allowance (GP) ’16 Suddenbreakingnews 2nd Springboard Mile (RP) ’15 Far Right 1st Smarty Jones (OP) ’14 Tapiture 1st Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) ’13 Super Ninety Nine 1st Allowance (SA) ’12 Castaway 1st Maiden (SA) ’12 Secret Circle 2nd Sham (SA) ’11 Archarcharch 4th Smarty Jones (OP) ’10 Conveyance 1st San Rafael (SA) ’09 Old Fashioned 1st Remsen (Aqu) ’08 Denis of Cork 1st Allowance (FG) INSIDE THE SOUTHWEST STAKES: The Southwest tends to draw more locally based horses than the Rebel and Arkansas Derby farther down the path. When Florida or California horses do appear here, they must be highly respected. Only 1 winner of the Southwest in the past decade has exited a prep finish worse than second; you want a horse in good form, regardless of the class level they exit.

RISEN STAR STAKES February 24, 2018

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The first 50-point prep on the Ky Derby qualifying series held in the US. The Risen Star is sandwiched an 5 weeks after the Lecomte Stakes and 4 weeks before the Louisiana Derby. The 1-1/16 miles distance also splits the difference between its bookend stakes counterparts at 1 mile and 70 yards and 1-1/8 miles. Despite the Fountain of Youth a week later and Southwest a week earlier, the Risen Star has had superb field sizes. In the last 10 years, we’ve had 9 double-digit field sizes including 11 a year ago. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Girvin switched turf-to-dirt as trainer Joe Sharp navigated the stakes calendar and a quarantine situation at Fair Grounds masterfully. He scored an 8-1

upset over Untrapped, while both would move on to the Kentucky Derby. Girvin’s foot issues preDerby perhaps cost him a better showing in Louisville. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The ’17 Risen Star stunted some real success the prep had been showing. The race had boasted 4 straight years producing a top-3 finisher in a Triple Crown race, including Gun Runner:

K y Derby : Gun Runner (3rd, ’16),

Commanding Curve (2nd, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13),

Preakness : Oxbow (1st, ’13),

Mylute (3rd, ’13)

Belm ont : Keen Ice (3rd, ’15),

Palace Malice (1st, ’13), Oxbow (2nd, ’13).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Risen Star Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Girvin Hernandez Sharp 98 ’16 Gun Runner Geroux Asmussen 97 ’15 International Star Mena Maker 97 ’14 Intense Holiday Smith Pletcher 99 ’13 Ive Struck a Nerve Graham Desormeaux 99 ’12 El Padrino Castellano Pletcher 101 ’11 Mucho Macho Man Maragh Ritvo 97 ’10 Discreetly Mine Castellano Pletcher 97 ’09 Friesan Fire G. Saez L. Jones 100 ’08 Pyro Bridgmohan Asmussen 96 Winning Preps for Last 10 Risen Star Stakes Winners ’17 Girvin 2nd Keith Gee Memorial (FG) ’16 Gun Runner 4th Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) ’15 International Star 1st Lecomte (FG) ’14 Intense Holiday 3rd Holy Bull (GP) ’13 Ive Struck a Nerve 4th Lecomte (FG) ’12 El Padrino 1st Allowance (GP) ’11 Mucho Macho Man 4th Holy Bull (GP) ’10 Discreetly Mine 4th Spectacular Bid (GP) ’09 Friesan Fire 1st Lecomte (FG) ’08 Pyro 2nd BC Juvenile (Mth) INSIDE THE RISEN STAR STAKES: It’s very notable that the last horse to win the Risen Star while rising in class from a Fair Grounds maiden or allowance was Gradepoint in ’04. Todd Pletcher has been conspicuous in his absence in the last 3 editions of this race after much success in the decade. Note that 6 of the last 8 Risen Star winners exited prep losses, including 4 finishing off the board most recently. The last California-based winner was Notional in 2007 for Doug O’Neill.

MINE THAT BIRD DERBY February 25, 2018

Derby points: none KEY INGREDIENTS: Named for the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, who ventured through New Mexico en route to his stunning upset. January’s Riley Allison Derby leads into the former Borderland Derby as the local preps for the rich Sunland Park Derby. At 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, the Mine That Bird Derby gives hopefuls a chance to acclimate to the extreme altitude and dust conditions at Sunland Park that can be troublesome for some shippers. But without graded status or Kentucky Derby qualifying points, as well as competition in the region from the Risen Star, it’s tough to imagine a field as good as ‘17. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Conquest Mo Money out-dueled favorite Irap by 2 lengths in what

clearly has been the best edition of this race ever. Irap would go on to win the Blue Grass, while Conquest Mo Money would be second in the Sunland Derby & Arkansas Derby. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Until last year, it almost began and ended with Mine That Bird, who was 2nd in the 2009 edition when named the Borderland Derby. The 2005 renewal produced a Belmont Stakes starter, as well as eventual BC Sprint winner Thor’s Echo for trainer Doug O’Neill.

K y Derby : Irap (18th, ’17), Mine

That Bird (1st, ’09).

Preakness : Conquest Mo Money

(7th, ’17), Mine That Bird (2nd, ’09).

Belm ont : Mine That Bird (3rd, ’09), Southern Africa (8th, ’05).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Mine That Bird Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Conquest Mo Money Carreno M Hernandez 88 ’16 Concord Fast Eikleberry Evans 85 ’15 Where’s the Moon E. Gomez Dominguez 94 ’14 Proceed Juarez Marr 98 ’13 Dry Summer Madeira Marr 87 ’12 Isn’t He Clever Medellin Dominguez 91 ’11 Fusa Code J. Shepherd Asmussen 88 ’10 Storming Saint Contreras Dominguez 85 ’09 Scorewithcater M. Baze O’Neill 88 ’08 Poni Colada Juarez Asmussen 92 Winning Preps for Last 10 Mine That Bird Derby Winners ’17 Conquest Mo Money 1st Riley Allison Derby (Sun) ’16 Concord Fast 4th Governor’s Cup (Zia) ’15 Where’s the Moon 1st Maiden (Sun) ’14 Proceed 1st Red Hedeman Mile (Sun) ’13 Dry Summer 1st Allowance (Sun) ’12 Isn’t He Clever 4th Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’11 Fusa Code 3rd Maiden (SA) ’10 Storming Saint 3rd Riley Allison Futurity (Sun) ’09 Scorewithcater 1st Allowance (SA) ’08 Poni Colada 6th Smarty Jones (OP) INSIDE THE MINE THAT BIRD DERBY: Horses relocated from the major national circuits have fared well in this race once acclimated with local conditioners, including ’17 winner Conquest Mo Money (via Mark Casse/dispersal sale), ’15 winner Where’s The Moon (via Peter Miller), ’14 runner-up Rebranded (via Todd Pletcher) from NY and ’13 winner Dry Summer from CA (via Jeff Mullins). No Mine That Bird / Borderland Derby winner has gone on to win the Sunland Derby to date – Conquest Mo Money came close last year, finishing 2nd in main event.

FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES March 3, 2018

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: What happens when a mid-season prep gets almost as strong as the race into which it is supposed to lead? That’s the tricky balance for the Fountain of Youth Stakes as it pertains to the Florida Derby. No one of major repute at this stage of the spring is shipping out of Gulfstream looking for easier spots and points. Add in the hefty amount of annual maiden and allowance dazzlers at the meet. It’s reasonable to look at the fields for the FoY and Florida Derby in recent years and argue that the prep has been tougher. Plus, at 1-1/16 miles, you’re looking at a hot pace with distance question marks turning up the temps … not to mention the usual attrition of 3YOs hasn’t fully hit the crop at this juncture. With few exceptions, this lately has become one of those ‘win the battle, but lose the war’ kind of races in the big picture.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Gunnevera turned the tables on Holy Bull winner Irish War Cry as that rival tired to seventh as the 65 favorite in a mystifying effort. Gunnevera rallied last-to-first to romp by 5 ¾ lengths in a race that would send 3 starters to the Kentucky Derby (Gunnevera, Practical Joke, Irish War Cry). TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Six FoY alumni have won the Derby since 1980. Since 2010, consider these Triple Crown highlights:

K y Derby : Orb (1st, ’13), Ice Box

(2nd ’10).

Preakness : Shackleford (1st, ’11). Belm ont : Irish War Cry (2nd,’17)

Frosted (2nd, ’15), Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Medal Count (3rd, ’14), Orb (3rd, ’13), Union Rags, (1st, ’12).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Fountain of Youth Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Gunnevera Castellano Sano 102 ’16 Mohaymen Alvarado McLaughlin 102 ’15 Itsaknockout L. Saez Pletcher 91 ’14 Wildcat Red L. Saez Garoffalo 100 ’13 Orb Velazquez McGaughey 102 ’12 Union Rags Leparoux Matz 103 ’11 Soldat A. Garcia McLaughlin 104 ’10 Eskendereya Velazquez Pletcher 103 ’09 Quality Road Velazquez Pletcher 110 ’08 Cool Coal Man Desormeaux Zito 100 Winning Preps for Last 10 Fountain of Youth Winners ’17 Gunnevera 2nd Holy Bull (GP) ’16 Mohaymen 1st Holy Bull (GP) ’15 Itsaknockout 1st Allowance (GP) ’14 Wildcat Red 1st Hutcheson (GP) ’13 Orb 1st Allowance (GP) ’12 Union Rags 2nd BC Juvenile (CD) ’11 Soldat 1st Allowance (GP) ’10 Eskendereya 1st Allowance (GP) ’09 Quality Road 2nd Allowance (GP) ’08 Cool Coal Man 1st Allowance (GP) INSIDE THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES: 6 of the last 10 Fountain of Youth winners rose in class from the local Gulfstream meet’s allowance ranks. In fact, 11 of the last 12 winners exited a top 3 finish already at the meet. With a short run to the first turn and sixteenth pole finish line employed, you don’t want to be far behind at Gulfstream Park over its 9-furlong oval in this race configuration. Historically, FoY winners have been forwardly placed most often, but Gunnevera was an exceptional exception a year ago with a deep rally.

GOTHAM STAKES March 10, 2018

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Third in NYRA’s four preps toward the Triple Crown, the Gotham move a week after the Fountain of Youth this year and instead go head-to-head with the Tampa Bay Derby for horses. For much of its history, the Gotham was a 1-turn mile in late March, but it no longer must serve as a sole Wood Memorial provider … and doesn’t have any unique quality about it around 2 turns. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: J Boys Echo ran one of the fastest preps of the season according to most figure-makers and upset 2-5 favorite El Areeb, who had won the Jerome and Withers prior. Between them was eventual Preakness winner Cloud Computing in one of the stronger Gothams in years.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Cloud Computing joined Red Bullet and Easy Goer as the only Gotham winners to post scores in TC since Secretariat. All TC alumni since ’10:

K y Derby : J Boys Echo (15th, ’17),

Shagaf (DNF, ’16), Tencendur (17th, ’15), Samraat (5th, ’14), Uncle Sigh (14th, ’14), Vyjack (18th, ’13), Overanalyze (11th, ’13), Hansen (9th, ’12), Done Talking (14th, ’12), Stay Thirsty (12th, ’11), Awesome Act (19th, ’10).

Preakness : Cloud Computing (1st,

’17), Tiger Walk (8th, ’12), Pretension (11th, ’12), Norman Asbjornson (11th, ’11), Yawanna Twist (4th, ’10).

Belm ont : J Boys Echo (9th, ’17),

Samraat (6th, ’14), Vyjack (8th, ’13), Overanalyze (7th, ’13), My Adonis (8th, ’12), Stay Thirsty (2nd, ’11).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Gotham Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 J Boys Echo Albarado Romans 104 ’16 Shagaf I. Ortiz, Jr. C. Brown 94 ’15 El Kabeir C.C. Lopez Terranova 95 ’14 Samraat J. Ortiz Violette 99 ’13 Vyjack Rosario R. Rodriguez 99 ’12 Hansen Dominguez Maker 105 ’11 Stay Thirsty Dominguez Pletcher 95 ’10 Awesome Act Leparoux Noseda 102 ’09 I Want Revenge Talamo Mullins 113 ’08 Visionaire Lezcano Matz 100 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Gotham Stakes Winners J Boys Echo 3rd Withers (Aqu) Shagaf 1st Allowance (GP) El Kabeir 2nd Withers (Aqu) Samraat 1st Withers (Aqu) Vyjack 1st Jerome (Aqu) Hansen 2nd Holy Bull (GP) Stay Thirsty 5th BC Juvenile (CD) Awesome Act 4th BC Juvenile Turf (SA) I Want Revenge 3rd Lewis Memorial (SA) Visionaire 3rd Risen Star (FG)

INSIDE THE GOTHAM STAKES: Favorites have won the Gotham 6 of the last 8 editions. Heavy chalk has been the norm. J Boys Echo was the first winner over 3-1 since 2008. No Gotham winner has been double-digit win odds since Like Now’s 36-1 bomb in 2006. In the 5 years since NYRA has reconfigured its winter stakes program, 3 of the winners were locally based – but Shagaf and J Boys Echo have shipped in to win the last 2.

SAN FELIPE STAKES March 10, 2018

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The San Felipe bridges the Bob Lewis Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby. Typically the San Felipe comes up too tough of a race for horses behind the eight ball on timing and trying to make their first start of the year. It’s an annual mix of stakes re-matches as well as class risers from the ALW and MSW ranks at 1-1/16 miles. Like Oaklawn’s Rebel, it’s a midseason race having almost as much TC impact as the prep it serves. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Unbeaten Mastery made a delayed 3YO debut a powerhouse victory, but paid the price in the running and came back lame and was retired. Among those he beat was SA Derby winner Gormley. But this was a ‘down’ year due to injury and this race’s lofty standard.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Last year’s race produced only Gormley and Term of Art to the TC series. But highlights in the stellar San Felipe since 2000 include:

K y Derby : Fusaichi Pegasus (1st,

’00), Giacomo (1st, ’05), Pioneerof The Nile (2nd, ’09), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), California Chrome (1st, ’14), Dortmund (3rd, ’15), Exaggerator (2nd, ’16).

Preakness : Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd,

’00), Point Given (1st, ’01), Giacomo (3rd, ’05), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Creative Cause (3rd, ’12), California Chrome (1st, ’14), Exaggerator (1st, ’16).

Belm ont : Commendable (1st, ’00), Point Given (1st, ’01), Medaglia d’Oro (2nd, ’02).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 San Felipe Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Mastery Smith Baffert 102 ’16 Danzing Candy Smith Sise 104 ’15 Dortmund Garcia Baffert 102 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 102 ’13 Hear the Ghost Nakatani Hollendorfer 99 ’12 Creative Cause Rosario Harrington 102 ’11 Premier Pegasus A.Quinonez Cho 100 ’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 93 (s) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez Baffert 92 (s) ’08 Georgie Boy M. Baze Walsh 95 (s) Winning Preps for Last 10 San Felipe Stakes Winners ’17 Mastery 1st Los Alamitos Futurity (Lrc) ’16 Danzing Candy 1st Allowance (SA) ’15 Dortmund 1st Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’14 California Chrome 1st California Cup Derby (SA) ’13 Hear the Ghost 2nd San Pedro (SA) ’12 Creative Cause 3rd San Vicente (SA) ’11 Premier Pegasus 1st Hollywood Prevue (Hol) ’10 Sidney’s Candy 1st San Vicente (SA) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’08 Georgie Boy 1st San Vicente (SA) INSIDE THE SAN FELIPE STAKES: The last 10 times Bob Baffert has had a San Felipe starter, he’s had 3 wins and 7 runner-ups dating back to Roman Ruler’s flop in 2005 when last. Nine of the last 10 winners exited Top 3 finishes in stakes races (7of those coming off of victories). Don’t be afraid of a stretch-out sprinter as 4 consecutive winners from 2010-’13 handled the extra ground.

TAMPA BAY DERBY March 10, 2018

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: This has become the Todd Pletcher Invitational in recent years as he’s won 3 straight and 4 of the last 5. It’s not always with his best horses, who often are aimed at Gulfstream. In fact, it’s the competition from GP when the Fountain of Youth moved back to a 1 1/16 miles race that slowed the progress Tampa’s big prep had been gaining. During that time of the FoY at 9 furlongs, Tampa lured lured horses like Sun King, Bluegrass Cat, eventual Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and 2YO champion War Pass. It does feel like the TBD is trending back slightly. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: With McCraken skipping the race due to a mild injury, Davis runnerup Tapwrit was a strong 6-5 favorite and won with ease as the top 4 finishers all exited the Davis.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Look at this race from 2010present because of the drain the Fountain of Youth again puts on it:

K y Derby : Tapwrit (6th, ’17),

State of Honor (19th, ’17), Destin (6th, ’16), Brody’s Cause (7th, ’16), Danzig Moon (5th, ’15), Carpe Diem (10th, ’15), Vinceremos (17th, ’14), Verrazano (14th, ’13), Java’s War (13th, ’13), Falling Sky (19th, ’13), Prospective (18th, ’12), Watch Me Go (18th, ’11), Super Saver (1st, ’10).

Preakness : Divining Rod (3rd,

’15), Danzig Moon (6th, ’15) Ring Weekend (5th, ’14), Cozzetti (7th, ’12), Super Saver (8th, ’10), Schoolyard Dreams (9th, ’10).

Belm ont : Tapwrit (1st, ’17),

Destin (2nd, ’16), Brody’s Cause (6th, ’16), Uptowncharlybrown (12th, ’10).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Tapwrit J Ortiz Pletcher 101 ’16 Destin Castellano Pletcher 97 ’15 Carpe Diem Velazquez Pletcher 96 ’14 Ring Weekend Centeno Motion 97 ’13 Verrazano Velazquez Pletcher 100 ’12 Prospective Contreras Casse 95 ’11 Watch Me Go L. Garcia O’Connell 95 ’10 Odysseus Maragh Albertrani 100 ’09 Musket Man Centeno Ryan 93 ’08 Big Truck Coa Tagg 99 Winning Preps for Last 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners ’17 Tapwrit 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’16 Destin 1st Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’15 Carpe Diem 2nd BC Juvenile (SA) ’14 Ring Weekend 1st Maiden (GP) ’13 Verrazano 1st Allowance (GP) ’12 Prospective 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’11 Watch Me Go 3rd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’10 Odysseus 1st Allowance (Tam) ’09 Musket Man 3rd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’08 Big Truck 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam) INSIDE THE TAMPA BAY DERBY: The last 6 Tampa Bay Derby winners (and 14 of the last 16) were horses winter-based on Florida’s Atlantic coastline – several of whom traveled to TBD prior for a prep. Todd Pletcher has seen his fortunes swap in this race in a positive direction winning 4 of the last 5. Note he had lost with 5 beaten favorites since 2006. The last TB Derby winner exiting an off-theboard final prep finish was Pineaff in 1999.

REBEL STAKES March 17, 2018

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Arguably the most impactful prep of the spring since 2004, check out a winner’s roll featuring American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Lookin At Lucky, Will Take Charge, The Factor and Secret Circle. Its field primarily comes from the Southwest Stakes, local ALW/MSWs and Californians. Rebel alumni have 4 weeks until the Arkansas Derby, 7 weeks before the Kentucky Derby and 9 weeks before the Preakness – the latter a race in which they’ve produced 6 Preakness winners since ’04 and the 2016 runner-up. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Todd Pletcher made a second successful raid from Gulfstream at the meet as Malagacy notched his stakes debut. The month prior One Liner scored the Southwest. Bob Baffert had a rare Rebel dud as American Anthem ran 10th at 8-5.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since Smarty Jones’ sweep at OP in 2004 and success in the Triple Crown, the highlights for this prep have been remarkable – especially in the Preakness Stakes. Consider:

K y Derby : Smarty Jones (1st, ’04),

Afleet Alex (3rd, ’05), Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Curlin (3rd, ’07), American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Lookin At Lee (2nd, ’17).

Preakness : Smarty Jones (1st,

’04), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Curlin (1st, ’07), Lookin At Lucky (1st, ’10), Oxbow (1st, ’13), Ride on Curlin (2nd, ’14), American Pharoah (1st ’15), Cherry Wine (2nd, ’16).

Belm ont : Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04),

Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Curlin (2nd, ’07), Anak Nakal (3rd, ’08), Atigun (3rd, ’12), Oxbow (2nd, ’13), American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Creator (1st, ’16).

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Rebel Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Malagacy Castellano Pletcher 95 Cupid Garcia Baffert 99 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 99 Hoppertunity Smith Baffert 99 Will Take Charge Court Lukas 101 Secret Circle Bejarano Baffert 97 The Factor Garcia Baffert 106 Lookin At Lucky Gomez Baffert 102 Win Willy Berry M. Robertson 104 Sierra Sunset Emigh Bonde 103

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Rebel Stakes Winners Malagacy 1st Allowance (GP) Cupid 1st Maiden (SA) American Pharoah 1st FrontRunner (SA) Hoppertunity 4th Risen Star (FG) Will Take Charge 6th Southwest (OP) Secret Circle 1st Southwest (OP) The Factor 1st San Vicente (SA) Lookin At Lucky 1st Cash Call Futurity (Hol) Win Willy 1st Allowance (OP) Sierra Sunset 2nd Southwest (OP)

INSIDE THE REBEL STAKES: With 6 wins in the last 8 years, Bob Baffert’s few misfires have been taken down by D. Wayne Lukas and Todd Pletcher. That’s quite an honor roll. 7 of the last 9 Rebel winners exited victories in their most-recent prep, while 13 of the last 14 were based/trained either at Oaklawn or in California. The last time the Rebel didn’t have a Triple Crown exacta finisher in a season was 2012 when Atigun was third in the Belmont.

SPIRAL STAKES March 17, 2018

Derby points: 20-8-4-2 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Its Derby qualifying points were slashed from 50 to the winner to just 20-8-4-2 this year in a move that could have major fall-out for the Spiral. Plus, the purse has been cut by Turfway Park. Still, the Spiral is the first race in Kentucky to offer Derby qualifying points. Only the Spiral and El Camino Real Derby offer qualifying points for races held over US synthetic surfaces. Since Keeneland’s move to dirt, the Spiral is the only pointsrecognized US Polytrack prep. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Mike Maker got his 4th Poly-era Spiral winner when Fast and Accurate posted a 24-1 upset. For Maker, he had won the previous year’s Spiral with 23-1 bomber Oscar Nominated. The $2 exacta, despite it being Poly pros Maker and Kenny McPeek, paid $800 (with 35-1 Blueridge Traveler 2nd).

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: From 1990-’93, the Spiral enjoyed its heyday with consecutive Triple Crown series race winners Summer Squall, Hansel, Lil E Tee & Prairie Bayou having ventured through Florence. But things went cold from ’94-’05, and last year’s only alum (Fast and Accurate) ran 17th in Louisville. Let’s examine the highlights of the Poly era, ’06present.

Ky Derby: Hard Spun (2nd, ‘07), Animal Kingdom (1st, ‘11), Went the Day Well (4th, ’12).

Preakness: Hemingway’s Key (3rd,

’06), Hard Spun (3rd, ‘07), Macho Again (2nd, ’08), Animal Kingdom (2nd, ’08).

Belmont: Hard Spun (4th, ‘07).

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Spiral Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Fast and Accurate Gaffalione Maker 86 Oscar Nominated Hernandez, Jr. Maker 91 Dubai Sky J. Lezcano Mott 103 We Miss Artie Velazquez Pletcher 93 Black Onyx Bravo Breen 96 Went the Day Well Velazquez Motion 103 Animal Kingdom Garcia Motion 97 Dean’s Kitten Velasquez Maker 101 Hold Me Back Desormeaux Mott 101 Adriano Prado Motion 101

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Spiral Stakes Winners Fast and Accurate 1st Overnight Stakes (GP) Oscar Nominated 1st Black Gold (FG) Dubai Sky 1st Kitten’s Joy (GP) We Miss Artie 8th Fountain of Youth (GP) Black Onyx 1st Allowance (GP) Went the Day Well 1st Maiden (GP) Animal Kingdom 2nd Allowance (GP) Dean’s Kitten 2nd Palm Beach (GP) Hold Me Back 5th Remsen (Aqu) Adriano 9th Fountain of Youth (GP)

INSIDE THE SPIRAL STAKES: Graham Motion, Bill Mott and Mike Maker account for 9 of the 12 scores since going to Polytrack. 8 of the last 10 Spiral winners were horses who had raced on the turf at Gulfstream during the winter. Horses who have prepped last at Turfway have finished 2nd or 3rd in 4 of the last 5 years. The past 2 years have seen winners at 23-1 and 24-1 after a run of pretty formful finishes.

LOUISIANA DERBY March 24, 2018

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Moved back a week earlier this year on the calendar, the Louisiana Derby will be 6 weeks in front of the Kentucky Derby. That’s a bit surprising given the success this race has had in the 5-week slot in recent years. You could definitely see some of these horses now still target the Arkansas Derby if needbe at a 6-week / 3-week arc. The taxing Fair Grounds stretch of 1,346 feet actually is more than 111 feet longer than Churchill Downs, providing a realistic dress rehearsal. The Louisiana Derby gets its field from the Lecomte and Risen Star locally as well as shippers from Florida who often are being separated from other stablemates in that region. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Risen Star winner Girvin became the third straight sophomore to double-down in winning Fair

Grounds’ two most key TC preps in succession. The 6-5 favorite led a local procession that included 4 of the top 5 finishers from FG preps. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since changing its timing and distance in 2010, the La Derby has taken off in terms of production. At least 1 alumnus has hit a TC race trifecta each year except ’12, including a pair of ’17 runners.

K y Derby : Gun Runner (3rd, ’16),

Commanding Curve (2nd, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13), Revolutionary (3rd, ’13), Nehro (2nd, 11), Mucho Macho Man (3rd, ’11).

Preakness : Senior Investment

(3rd, ’17, Mylute (3rd, ’13).

Belm ont : Patch (3rd, ’17), Keen

Ice (3rd, ’15), Palace Malice (1st, ’13), Drosselmeyer (1st, ’10), Fly Down (2nd, ’10).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Louisiana Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ‘17 Girvin Hernandez Sharp 99 ’16 Gun Runner Geroux Asmussen 100 ’15 International Star Mena Maker 99 ’14 Vicar’s in Trouble Napravnik Maker 104 ’13 Revolutionary Castellano Pletcher 105 ’12 Hero of Order Martin Dorochenko 95 ’11 Pants On Fire Napravnik Breen 97 ’10 Mission Impazible Maragh Pletcher 97 ’09 Friesan Fire G. Saez L. Jones 103 ’08 Pyro Bridgmohan Asmussen 100 ‘17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Louisiana Derby Winners Girvin 1st Risen Star (FG) Gun Runner 1st Risen Star (FG) International Star 1st Risen Star (FG) Vicar’s in Trouble 3rd Risen Star (FG) Revolutionary 1st Withers (Aqu) Hero of Order 4th Black Gold (FG) Pants On Fire 6th Risen Star (FG) Mission Impazible 3rd Southwest (OP) Friesan Fire 1st Risen Star (FG) Pyro 1st Risen Star (FG)

INSIDE THE LOUISIANA DERBY: 11 straight La Derby winners exited stakes bids, while 8 of the last 11 competed in the Risen Star on the local path. In fact, 5 times in the last 10 years, the Risen Star winner has doubled-down to take the Louisiana Derby. West coast invaders haven’t won a Louisiana Derby since the early/mid2000s when Bobby Frankel and Bob Baffert tasted success in the Big Easy. Only 1 of the last 10 La Derby editions was swept 1-2-3 by locally prepped horses, so expect at least 1 shipper on the ticket.

SUNLAND DERBY March 25, 2018

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: New Mexico’s only Kentucky Derby qualifying prep, the Sunland Derby has been a favorite stop for west coast horsemen traveling east since its 2003 debut. Names like Baffert, O’Neill, Bonde, Machowsky and Callaghan have made successful raids from California. It’s offered at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, over a very fast racing surface that can fool speed-figure players and those following the stopwatch. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Hence rebounded from a poor showing in Oaklawn’s Southwest and rallied from more than 11 lengths back early for a daylight score over Conquest Mo Money, who would return to run 2nd in the Arkansas Derby, as well as nextout Blue Grass upsetter Irap. All three would make their way to the Triple Crown series. Favorite Bronze Age (Baffert) was eased.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Sunland Derby has 2 TC race winners – Mine That Bird and Ruler On Ice. Its alumni in the TC:

K y Derby : Hence (11th, ’17), Irap

(18th, ’17), Firing Line (2nd, ’15), Chitu (9th, ’14), Daddy Nose best (10th, ’12), Twice the Appeal (10th, ’11), Conveyance (‘15th, ’10), Mine That Bird (1st, ’09), Advice (13th, ’09), Sort It Out (17th, ’05).

Preakness : Conquest Mo Money

(7th, ’17), Hence (9th, ’17)Firing Line (7th, ’15), Govenor Charlie (8th, ’13), Daddy Nose Best (9th, ’12), Astrology (3rd, ’11), Mine That Bird (2nd, ’09).

Belm ont : Commissioner (2nd, ’14)

Ruler On Ice (1st, ’11), Mine That Bird (3rd, ’09), Southern Africa (8th, ’05).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Sunland Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Hence Juarez Asmussen 103 ’15 Firing Line Stevens Callaghan 101 ’14 Chitu Garcia Baffert 103 ’13 Govenor Charlie Garcia Baffert 99 ’12 Daddy Nose Best Leparoux Asmussen 101 ’11 Twice the Appeal Reyes Bonde 95 ’10 Endorsement Albarado Ritter 99 ’09 Kelly Leak Smith Machowsky 92 ’08 Liberty Bull G.Melancon Amoss 91 ’07 Song of Navarone Espinoza Dominguez 104 ’17 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07

Winning Preps for Last 10 Sunland Derby Winners Hence 7th Southwest (OP) Firing Line 2nd Lewis Memorial (SA) Chitu 2nd Lewis Memorial (SA) Govenor Charlie 1st Maiden (SA) Daddy Nose Best 1st El Camino Real Derby (GG) Twice the Appeal 4th Turf Paradise Derby (TuP) Endorsement 1st Maiden (OP) Kelly Leak 1st Allowance (SA) Liberty Bull 3rd Southwest (OP) Song of Navarone 3rd Sham (SA)

INSIDE THE SUNLAND DERBY: Note: Race not held in 2016 due to quarantine/viral outbreak. Horses who wintered in California have won 6 of the last 8 editions of this race. West coaster Collected also shipped in to win the 2016 Sunland Park Festival of Racing, the fill-in race for the Sunland Park Derby. Those tuning up in the local Borderland Derby have struggled to handle the shippers, though Conquest Mo Money represented the home team as runner-up last year.

FLORIDA DERBY March 31, 2018

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The eastern place to be on the Triple Crown trail, Gulfstream’s 3YO series spans from the first of the New Year through his prime real estate 5 weeks out from the Kentucky Derby. Last year, Always Dreaming became the 24th Florida Derby alum to wear the roses, surpassing the Blue Grass for most all-time from any single 3YO prep. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Always Dreaming romped by 5 lengths in his stakes debut as Fountain of Youth winner and 6-5 favorite Gunnevera was a flat 3rd. The top 3 all would advance to the Ky Derby, where Always Dreaming would give this race back-to-back scores following Nyquist. All 10 entrants were locally based.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The past 12 years have seen Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist and Always Dreaming win the Ky Derby via the Florida Derby. Consider the roll this race has been on in terms of highlights since ‘06:

K y Derby : Always Dreaming (1st,

’17), Nyquist (1st, ’16), Orb (1st, ’13), Ice Box (2nd, ’10), Big Brown (1st, ’08), Barbaro (1st, ’06).

Preakness : Nyquist (3rd, ’16),

Itsmyluckyday (2nd, ’13), Shackleford (1st, ’11), First Dude (2nd, ’10), Big Brown (1st, ’08).

Belm ont : Orb (3rd, ’13), Union

Rags (1st, ’12), First Dude (3rd, ’10), Dunkirk (2nd, ’09), Da’Tara (1st, ’08), Sunriver (3rd, ’06).

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Florida Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Always Dreaming Velazquez Pletcher 102 Nyquist Gutierrez O’Neill 97 Materiality Velazquez Pletcher 105 Constitution Castellano Pletcher 97 Orb Velazquez McGaughey 97 Take Charge Indy Borel Byrne 104 Dialed In Leparoux Zito 101 Ice Box Lezcano Zito 101 Quality Road Velazquez J. Jerkens 103 Big Brown Desormeaux R. Dutrow 110

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Florida Derby Winners Always Dreaming 1st Allowance (GP) Nyquist 1st San Vicente (SA) Materiality 1st Overnight stakes (GP) Constitution 1st Allowance (GP) Orb 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) Take Charge Indy 2nd Allowance (GP) Dialed In 2nd Allowance (GP) Ice Box 5th Fountain of Youth (GP) Quality Road 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) Big Brown 1st Allowance (GP)

INSIDE THE FLORIDA DERBY: 4 straight winners were horses who were NOT in traditional local stakes preps most recently. Only 1 of the last 7 winners exited the Fountain of Youth. Empire Maker (’03) and Nyquist (’16) are the only shippers to win the Florida Derby in recent years. 11 of the last 12 winners exited a first or second-place prep finish (last 5 in a row exited victories). Fields of 8-10 have been the norm of late, including 10 each of the past 2 years.

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SANTA ANITA DERBY April 7, 2018

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: A galvanizing series of local preps builds perfectly to the 1-1/8 miles Santa Anita Derby. An occasional shipper from Northern California may appear, but this race typically comes down to the alumni of the Bob Lewis Memorial and the San Felipe. Its 4-week window to the Kentucky Derby is shared by the same-day Wood Memorial and Blue Grass. We’ve seen the west’s stars like Nyquist & American Pharoah bypass this race for roadtrips of late. The SA Derby is most often won on or near the front, but the most recent winners Exaggerator and Gormley were able to rally. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Gormley ground out one of the slowest Santa Anita Derby victories of all time in 1:51.16 as the top 5 finishers hit the wire within 2

lengths. Runner-up Battle of Midway would return to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby and eventually win the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in the autumn. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since ’11 return to dirt, Santa Anita Derby’s TC race top-4s:

Ky Derby: Battle of Midway (3rd,

’17), Exaggerator (2nd, ’16), Dortmund (3rd, ’15), California Chrome (1st, ’14), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12)

Preakness: Exaggerator (1st, 16),

Dortmund (4th, ’15), California Chrome (1st, ’14), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Creative Cause (3rd, ’12).

Belmont: Gormley (4th, ’17),

California Chrome (4th, ’14), Paynter (2nd, ’12.

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Santa Anita Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Gormley Espinoza Shirreffs 99 ’16 Exaggerator Desormeaux Desormeaux 102 ’15 Dortmund Garcia Baffert 106 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 106 ’13 Goldencents Krigger O’Neill 106 ’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 98 ’11 Midnight Interlude Espinoza Baffert 98 ’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 99 (s) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez Baffert 95 (s) ’08 Colonel John Nakatani Harty 98 (s) Winning Preps for Last 10 Santa Anita Derby Winners ’17 Gormley 4th San Felipe (SA) ’16 Exaggerator 3rd San Felipe (SA) ’15 Dortmund 1st San Felipe (SA) ’14 California Chrome 1st San Felipe (SA) ’13 Goldencents 4th San Felipe (SA) ’12 I’ll Have Another 1st Lewis Memorial (SA) ’11 Midnight Interlude 1st Maiden (SA) ’10 Sidney’s Candy 1st San Felipe (SA) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st San Felipe (SA) ’08 Colonel John 1st Sham (SA) INSIDE THE SANTA ANITA DERBY: 12 straight winners exited local SA preps, including 11 of the last 12 from local stakes bids. 7 of the last 9 winners tuned up in the San Felipe (5 in a row have exited that same prep). Gormley, Exaggerator, Tiago, Castledale and Buddy Gil are the only SA Derby dirt winners in the last 20 years to rally from more than 4 lengths back to score.

WOOD MEMORIAL April 7, 2018

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Downgraded to a G2 stakes last year, the Wood had a bounce-back when Cloud Computing went on to win the Preakness and Irish War Cry ran second in the Belmont. Still, the Wood has not produced a Kentucky Derby Top 3 finisher since Funny Cide and Empire Maker ran 1-2 in 2003. Sure, there’s been bad luck – namely injuries to Eskendereya and I Want Revenge. But it’s no coincidence that since the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby dates moved to become last-stop preps and not mid-season preps, the Wood has fallen from grandeur. The Wood shares the weekend with the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass as preps 4 weeks out from Derby Day. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Irish War Cry became the third straight Wood winner to bounce

back from a Fountain of Youth loss when scoring a convincing 3-1/2 length victory over 2-1 favorite Battalion Runner and eventual Preakness upsetter Cloud Computing. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since the Florida Derby’s ’06 rise, the Wood had been shut out of TC success until Cloud Computing’s Preakness score a year ago:

K y Derby : Frosted (4th, ’15),

Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Normandy Invasion (4th, ’13), Tale of Ekati (4th, ’08).

Preakness : Cloud Computing (1st,

’17), Social Inclusion (3rd, ’14), Jackson Bend (3rd, ’10).

Belm ont : Irish War Cry (2nd, ’17),

Frosted (2nd, ’15), Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Street Life (4th, ’12), Anak Nakal (3rd, ’08).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Wood Memorial Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Irish War Cry Maragh Motion 102 ’16 Outwork Velazquez Pletcher 96 ’15 Frosted Rosario McLaughlin 107 ’14 Wicked Strong Maragh J. Jerkens 103 ’13 Verrazano Velazquez Pletcher 100 ’12 Gemologist Castellano Pletcher 104 ’11 Toby’s Corner Castro Motion 97 ’10 Eskendereya Velazquez Pletcher 102 ’09 I Want Revenge Talamo Mullins 109 ’08 Tale Of Ekati Prado Tagg 100 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Wood Memorial Winners Irish War Cry 7th Fountain of Youth (GP) Outwork 2nd Fountain of Youth (GP) Frosted 4th Fountain of Youth (GP) Wicked Strong 4th Allowance (GP) Verrazano 1st Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) Gemologist 1st Allowance (GP) Toby’s Corner 3rd Gotham (Aqu) Eskendereya 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) I Want Revenge 1st Gotham (Aqu) Tale Of Ekati 6th Louisiana Derby (FG)

INSIDE THE WOOD MEMORIAL: 7 of the last 8 Wood winners shipped north from Florida to score, including 6 straight. Favorites have won 4 of the last 9. Entering off a win isn’t a must either, as 8 of the last 12 winners lost their prior starts. Todd Pletcher’s deep bench has won 4 of the last 8 Wood Memorial offerings via Florida (2nd last year with Battalion Runner). The Gotham Stakes has produced only 2 Wood winners in the past decade.

BLUE GRASS STAKES April 7, 2018

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: In its first year downgraded to a G2 in 2017, the Blue Grass got some vindication when Tapwrit scored a Belmont Stakes victory to close the Triple Crown series. This will be the fourth Blue Grass back on dirt and the first three included a pair of horses-for-courses who had won Keeneland G1s at age 2. It’s still at a key 4-week out interval in Derby prep scheduling and gets you to Kentucky early to settle in, which is appealing to many horsemen. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: West coast invader Irap became the first maiden to win the Blue Grass when pulling a 31-1 upset on the front end. The top 5 finishers all went on to the Kentucky Derby, including eventual Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit, who was 5th in the Blue Grass.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since going back to dirt, Blue Grass alumni are 11: 0-0-0 in the Ky Derby with a fifth-place finish topping the list. But they do boast a Belmont win and Preakness place in 3 years. Since dirt return overall:

K y Derby : Practical Joke (5th,

’17), Tapwrit (6th, ’17), McCraken (8th, ’17), J Boys Echo (15th, ’17), Irap (18th, ’17), Brody’s Cause (7th, ’16), My Man Sam (11th, ’16), Danzig Moon (5th), Carpe Diem (10th), Frammento (11th), Ocho Ocho Ocho (14th).

Preakness : Cherry Wine (2nd,

’16), Laoban (6th, ’16), Danzig Moon (6th, ’15).

Belm ont : Tapwrit (1st, ’17), J

Boys Echo (9th, ’17), Brody’s Cause (6th, ’16), Cherry Wine (7th, ’16), Frammento (5th, ’15).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Blue Grass Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Irap Leparoux O’Neill 100 (d) ‘16 Brody’s Cause Saez Romans 94 (d) ’15 Carpe Diem Velazquez Pletcher 102 (d) ’14 Dance With Fate Nakatani Eurton 99 ’13 Java’s War Leparoux McPeek 96 ’12 Dullahan Desormeaux Romans 102 ’11 Brilliant Speed Rosario Albertrani 97 ’10 Stately Victor A. Garcia Maker 99 ’09 General Quarters Coa T. McCarthy 98 ’08 Monba Prado Pletcher 97 Winning Preps for Last 10 Blue Grass Stakes Winners ’17 Irap 4th Sunland Derby (Sun) ’16 Brody’s Cause 7th Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’15 Carpe Diem 1st Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’14 Dance With Fate 2nd El Camino Real Derby (GG) ’13 Java’s War 2nd Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’12 Dullahan 2nd Palm Beach (GP) ’11 Brilliant Speed 2nd Hallandale Beach (GP) ’10 Stately Victor 5th Allowance (GP) ’09 General Quarters 5th Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’08 Monba 12th Fountain of Youth (GP) INSIDE THE BLUE GRASS STAKES: It’s been 27 years since Strike the Gold swept the Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby in 1991. And no Blue Grass winner has won any Triple Crown race since Prairie Bayou’s 1993 Preakness. Even so, 23 Blue Grass alumni have worn the roses in Louisville (2nd to Florida Derby’s 24), the last of which was Street Sense in 2007. Tampa Bay Derby alumni have won 4 of the last 9 editions, including scores on both Polytrack and dirt. 8 of the last 10 winners wintered in Florida.

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2018 RACING SEASON JANUARY 12 – APRIL 14

ARKANSAS DERBY April 14, 2018

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Fourth in line in OP’s seasonal series, it’s impossible to undervalue the $5M Centennial Season Bonus in ’04 captured by Smarty Jones and this race’s rise. The race has produced the winners of 11 Triple Crown races during that time and a pair of runner-ups last year in the Derby and Preakness. What’s become unique is that Arkansas is the only major prep 3 weeks in front of the Ky Derby. Big fields, huge crowds and pre-race hub-bub serve as the trail’s most realistic rehearsal. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 2YO champion Classic Empire got back on the beam after a winter of disappointment and setbacks. The 9-5 favorite turned out to be 1 of 2 classic-placed horses from the Arkansas Derby when finishing 2nd in the Preakness. Lookin At Lee, 3rd in Ark, would run 2nd in Louisville next time out.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The highlights since ’04 have been unparalleled, including ’15 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah:

K y Derby : Lookin At lee (2nd,

’17), American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Danza (3rd, ’14), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Nehro (2nd ’11), Super Saver (1st, ’10), Curlin (3rd, ’07), Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Afleet Alex (3rd, ’05), Smarty Jones (1st, ’04).

Preakness : Classic Empire (2nd,

’17), American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Ride On Curlin (2nd, ’14), Oxbow (1st, ’13), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Curlin (1st, ’07), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Smarty Jones (1st, ’04).

Belm ont : Creator (1st, ’16),

American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Atigun (3rd, ’12), Summer Bird (1st, ’09), Curlin (2nd, ’07), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Andromeda’s Hero (2nd, ’05), Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Arkansas Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Classic Empire Leparoux Casse 96 ’16 Creator Santana Asmussen 100 ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 102 ’14 Danza Bravo Pletcher 104 ’13 Overanalyze Bejarano Pletcher 96 ’12 Bodemeister Smith Baffert 105 ’11 Archarcharch Court Fires 99 ’10 Line of David Court Sadler 99 ’09 Papa Clem Bejarano G. Stute 100 ’08 Gayego Smith Lobo 101 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Arkansas Derby Winners Classic Empire 3rd Holy Bull (GP) Creator 3rd Rebel (OP) American Pharoah 1st Rebel (OP) Danza 3rd Allowance (GP) Overanalyze 5th Gotham (Aqu) Bodemeister 2nd San Felipe (SA) Archarcharch 3rd Rebel (OP) Line of David 1st Allowance (SA) Papa Clem 2nd Louisiana Derby (FG) Gayego 2nd San Felipe (SA)

INSIDE THE ARKANSAS DERBY: Bob Baffert has trained the last 6 of the last 7Arkansas Derby favorites – The Factor (7th), Bodemeister (1st), War Academy (DNF), Bayern (3rd), American Pharoah (1st) and Cupid (10th) – with VERY mixed results. Five of the last 10 winners shipped in from California bases (2 for Baffert, also Lobo, Stute and Sadler). Horses have rebounded off losses with much success of late with 8 of the last 10 winners coming off of a defeat – 6 of those from out of town.

LEXINGTON STAKES April 14, 2018

Derby points: 20-8-4-2 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The Lexington’s Derby qualifying point total was doubled this year after a successful ’17 cast. This will mark the fourth Lexington since the race returned to dirt and was moved to a spot 3 weeks out from the Kentucky Derby on the calendar. Yes, it’s a last chance to get qualifying points on the Triple Crown trail along with the Arkansas Derby, but it’s yet to produce a Ky Derby participant in that scenario. It remains more a Preakness prep. At 1-1/16 miles, note the truncated stretch run that uses the sixteenthpole finish line. You don’t want to be far off the pace over this Kee trip – the past 2 winners on dirt were within 2 lengths of the lead.

Travers winner West Coast put on a strong show with No Dozing part of a 3-way photo. Senior Investment was able to rally and deny Bob Baffert back-to-back wins in the Lexington, as well as Arnaud Delacour’s bid for a 2nd in 3 years.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: A strong cast led by eventual Preakness third-place finisher Senior Investment and eventual G1

Hansel (’91, 1st), Risen Star (’88, 1st)

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The past 3 editions on dirt have produced Preakness bids, but only one horse each year made the TC series: Senior Investment ’17, Collected ’16 and Divining Rod ’15). The Lexington’s TC-winning alumni of the past 30+ years include:

K y Derby : Charismatic (’99, 1st), Swale (’84, 1st).

Preakness : Charismatic (’99, 1st), Belm ont : Touch Gold (’97, 1st),

Hansel (’91, 1st), Risen Star (’88, 1st)

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Lexington Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Senior Investment Hill McPeek 93 (d) ’16 Collected Castellano Baffert 94 (d) ’15 Divining Rod Leparoux Delacour 96 (d) ’14 Mr. Speaker Lezcano McGaughey 99 ’13 Winning Cause Leparoux Pletcher 86 ’12 All Squared Away J. Garcia Ward 97 ’11 Derby Kitten Leparoux Maker 96 ’10 Exhi Albarado Pletcher 97 ’09 Advice Gomez Pletcher 93 ’08 Behindatthebar Flores Pletcher 99 Winning Preps for Last 10 Lexington Stakes Winners ’17 Senior Investment 6th Louisiana Derby (FG) ’16 Collected 1st Sunland Festival of Racing (Sun) ’15 Divining Rod 3rd Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’14 Mr. Speaker 2nd Palm Beach (GP) ’13 Winning Cause 1st Allowance (Kee) ’12 All Squared Away 6th Spiral (TP) ’11 Derby Kitten 2nd Alligator Alley (GP) ’10 Exhi 1st Rushaway (TP) ’09 Advice 5th Sunland Derby (Sun) ’08 Behindatthebar 1st Allowance (SA) INSIDE THE LEXINGTON STAKES: 8 of the last 9 Lexington winners were coming off of stakes bids and only twice this decade has a runner risen in class out of the allowance ranks to win this race. That means it’s less of a springboard race to the next level and more of a reasonable spot for horses who have been challenged by either longer distances or top-level 3YOs. Todd Pletcher won this race 4 times in the Polytrack era, but has had only 1 starter in past 3 years on dirt (4th in 2015 with Comfort).

FEDERICO TESIO STAKES April 21, 2018

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: A “Win & You’re In” for the Preakness, Maryland’s traditional prep for the middle jewel will be at Laurel Park for the third straight year after decades a Pimlico. It’s a race that has lured the likes of Ruler On Ice in 2011, who would eventually win the Belmont Stakes. The Tesio stretches hopefuls out to 1-1/8 miles and is preceded on the local stakes schedule by the Frank Whiteley (7 furlongs), Miracle Wood (1 mile) and Private Terms (1 1/16 miles). MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Chad Brown shipped Twisted Tom back to Laurel after winning the Private Terms and yet the eventual Tesio winner still was let go 5-1 third choice in a field of 5. Aqueduct ALW winner Carradine never got uncorked for Linda Rice as the 4-5 favorite (4th of 5).

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Preakness / Belmont starters have been produced in 4 straight years after the Tesio failed to do so between 2009-‘13. Of its last 15 editions, the Tesio has offered a Belmont winner and 2 Preakness placings. Consider:

K y Derby : None. Preakness : Awesome Speed (9th,

’16), Bodhisattva (8th, ’15), Kid Cruz (8th, ’14), Icabad Crane (3rd, ’08), Xchanger (8th, ’07), Malibu Moonshine (8th, ’05), Water Cannon (10th, ’04), Cherokee’s Boy (8th, ’03), Magic Weisner (2nd, ’02).

Belm ont : Twisted Tom (6th, ’17),

Governor Malibu (4th, ’16), Matuszak (DNF, ’14), Ruler On Ice (1st, ’11), Miner’s Escape (10th, ’09), Icabad Crane (8th, ’08).

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Tesio Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Twisted Tom Lynch C. Brown 93 Awesome Speed Toledo Goldberg 97 Bodhisattva McCarthy Corrales 95 Kid Cruz Pimentel L. Rice 90 Abstraction Goncalves D. Carroll 95 Concealed Identity Russell E. Gaudet 96 Bank The Eight Pino T. Dutrow 91 Miner’s Escape Garcia Zito 96 Icabad Crane Rose Motion 94 Xchanger Domingez Shuman 102

’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07

Winning Preps for Last 10 Tesio Stakes Winners Twisted Tom 1st Private Terms (Lrl) Awesome Speed 4th Fountain of Youth (GP) Bodhisattva 2nd Private Terms (Lrl) Kid Cruz 1st Private Terms (Lrl) Abstraction 1st Maiden (FG) Concealed Identity 1st Allowance (Pim) Bank The Eight 1st Allowance (Prx) Miner’s Escape 1st Maiden (GP) Icabad Crane 3rd Rushaway (TP) Xchanger 7th Rebel (OP)

INSIDE THE FEDERICO TESIO STAKES: The Private Terms Stakes has produced 3 of the last 4 Tesio champs, including a pair of race sweepers. The last locally based post-time favorite was Etude in 2007. Favorites have won the Tesio 6 times in the last 12 editions. The Tesio has been a successful stop for Parx-based runners who don’t have any stakes of note for 3-year-olds this time of year, and they’ve fared well here in recent years in limited engagements.

KENTUCKY DERBY May 5, 2018

STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Every piece of the Kentucky Derby puzzle offers a new challenge. Who will first handle 1-1/4 miles? Who can tote 126 pounds under top class conditions and distance? Who will keep the nerves in check in front of upwards of 170,000 screaming fans? Check off these boxes and you’re a long way to determining who may be draped in roses – granted, they get a clean trip and also are peaking May 5. A lot will be made for horses who handle Churchill Downs’ surface and those who do not. A few points of caution: don’t overrate 2YO performance at Churchill in the Fall Meet with success in the Spring. The two surfaces are handled quite differently in terms of moisture content and the Fall surface is far more loose and cuppy than the Spring footing at Churchill that is sped up decidedly.

Also, don’t mistake good workouts over the Churchill surface in the weeks leading up to the Derby as a mulligan for prep performances. Many sharp workers without credentials have been false buzz over the decades. You want legitimate horses working well at Churchill and that gives them an extra feather in the handicapping cap. Horses working poorly can almost universally be dismissed. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Always Dreaming became the latest maiden breaker (Jan. 25) to win the roses since Broker’s Tip broke his maiden IN the 1933 Derby. He was the 6th straight Derby winner to be unbeaten as a 3YO and the 5th straight favorite to win the race. We last had 6 favs in a row in 1891-’96. Always Dreaming gave John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher their second Derby wins, but first together.

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Always Dreaming Velazquez Pletcher 100 ’16 Nyquist Gutierrez O’Neill 104 ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 100 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 103 ’13 Orb Rosario McCaughey 111 ’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 108 ’11 Animal Kingdom Velazquez Motion 105 ’10 Super Saver Borel Pletcher 105 ’09 Mine That Bird Borel Woolley 110 ’08 Big Brown Desormeaux R. Dutrow 111 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners Always Dreaming 1st Florida Derby (GP) Nyquist 1st Florida Derby (GP) American Pharoah 1st Arkansas Derby (OP) California Chrome 1st Santa Anita Derby (SA) Orb 1st Florida Derby (GP) I’ll Have Another 1st Santa Anita Derby (SA) Animal Kingdom 1st Spiral (TP) Super Saver 2nd Arkansas Derby (OP) Mine That Bird 4th Sunland Derby (Sun) Big Brown 1st Florida Derby (GP)

INSIDE THE KENTUCKY DERBY: The last 4 Derby winners were sitting 2nd/3rd after the opening half-mile. West coast based horses have won 4 of the last 6, but last year’s Triple Crown was swept from the east – Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing and Tapwrit. Always Dreaming last year was the first Derby winner to enter his 3YO season a maiden since Monarchos in ’01; and note 9 of the last 12 Derby winners were stakes performers at age 2. Always Dreaming was 5th Derby winner in 15 years to change barns at some point before the classics.

PETER PAN STAKES May 12, 2018

STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Downgraded to G3 last year for the first time since 1980. The Peter Pan offers a local prep over ‘Big Sandy’ for Belmont Stakes hopefuls and middle-distance runners alike. It’s contested at 1-1/8 miles around 1 turn, so it lures a mix of late bloomers looking to the final jewel as well as those with some distance limitations. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Just like Unified a year prior, Timeline extended his unbeaten record to 3 with a stakes-debut victory as Chad Brown’s barn was about to heat up with Cloud Computing in the Preakness. None of the 6 entrants would start in the Belmont Stakes as Timeline awaited the Pegasus at Monmouth.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Tonalist in 2014 was the first Peter Pan-Belmont sweeper since AP Indy in ’92 and first Peter Pan alumnus to win the carnations since Lemon Drop Kid in ’99. Since ’02, here are the best finishes of the Peter Pan alumni:

Belm ont : Governor Malibu (4th,

’16), Tonalist (1st, ’14), Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Street Life (4th, ’12), Charitable Man (4th, ’09), Ready’s Echo (dh-3rd, ’09), Sunriver (3rd, ’06), Sunday Break (3rd, ’02).

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Peter Pan Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Timeline Castellano C. Brown 109 ’16 Unified J. Ortiz J. Jerkens 95 ’15 Madefromlucky Castellano Pletcher 99 ’14 Tonalist Rosario Clement 107 ’13 Freedom Child Saez Albertrani 105 ’12 Mark Valeski Napravnik L. Jones 102 ’11 Alternation Dominguez D. Von Hemel 103 ‘09 Charitable Man A. Garcia McLaughlin 103 ’08 Casino Drive Desormeaux Fujisawa 109 ’07 Sightseeing Prado McGaughey 99 Winning Preps for Last 10 Peter Pan Stakes Winners ’17 Timeline 1st Allowance (Aqu) ‘16 Unified 1st Bay Shore (Aqu) ’15 Madefromlucky 4th Arkansas Derby (OP) ’14 Tonalist 2nd Allowance (GP) ’13 Freedom Child 10th Wood Memorial (Aqu) ’12 Mark Valeski 2nd Louisiana Derby (FG) ’11 Alternation 5th Arkansas Derby (OP) ‘09 Charitable Man 7th Blue Grass (Kee) ’08 Casino Drive 1st Maiden (Kyoto/Japan) ’07 Sightseeing 2nd Wood Memorial (Aqu) INSIDE THE PETER PAN STAKES: Arkansas Derby alumni have found the Peter Pan timing to their liking with precision strikes when they show up, including Purge, Alternation, runnerup Commissioner and Madefromlucky. It’s been a race for horses fairly close to the pace and formful finishes in recent years – including Timeline at .45go-1 a year ago and Unified at .55-to-1 prior to that.

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PREAKNESS STAKES May 19, 2018

STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The middle jewel of the Triple Crown remains the series’ truest test, evidenced by only 2 winners in the last century at 20-1 or more. Last year’s 13-1 upset by Cloud Computing threw history for a loop. Still the impact of the 2-week turnaround remains widely overblown by horseplayers, horsemen and the media Since 1983, only 3 Preakness winners weren’t in action over Derby weekend.

the Preakness since 1990 – with Nyquist’s third the worst perfomance. Strong Derby favorites rarely miss the mark in the Preakness with a smaller field size and truer race.

You’re still looking for a legitimate Derby winner to repeat his performance, or a troubled-trip horse from Louisville capable of turning the tables. That’s the gist of the handicapping process. Note that horses bet 5-2 or less favoritism in the Kentucky Derby own a superior 7: 5-1-1 record in

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Lukewarm Ky Derby-winning favorite Always Dreaming readily retreated from his pace-making trip as “new shooter” Cloud Computing gave rising star trainer Chad Brown his first classic win narrowly over Classic Empire, the reigning 2YO champ. Always Dreaming ran 8th.

The vast majority of Preakness winners the past decade have been near the pace with Curlin in 2007 and Exaggerator in 2016 the most recent to win from more than 5 lengths off the early pace.

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Cloud Computing Castellano C. Brown 103 ’16 Exaggerator Desormeaux Desormeaux 104 ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 100 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 105 ’13 Oxbow Stevens Lukas 112 ’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 109 ’11 Shackleford Castanon Romans 103 ’10 Lookin At Lucky Garcia Baffert 104 ’09 Rachel Alexandra Borel Asmussen 105 ’08 Big Brown Desormeaux R. Dutrow 101 Winning Preps for Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners ’17 Cloud Computing 3rd Wood Memorial (CD) ’16 Exaggerator 2nd Kentucky Derby (CD) ’15 American Pharoah 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’14 California Chrome 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’13 Oxbow 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’12 I’ll Have Another 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’11 Shackleford 4th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’10 Lookin At Lucky 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Kentucky Oaks (CD) ’08 Big Brown 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) INSIDE THE PREAKNESS STAKES: West coast-based horses have won Preakness 5 of last 8 years. Two of the last 3 Preakness runner-ups have been Derby exclusions on points – Tale of Verve & Cherry Wine. Kentucky Derby winners are 11-for-18 in the Preakness exacta since 2000, including 7 wins. 10 of the last 11 Preakness winners have come off 2-week layoffs (9 Derby alumni, 1 Oaks).Trainer Bob Baffert is 4-for-4 in the Preakness when bringing the Derby winner (American Pharoah, War Emblem, Real Quiet, Silver Charm).

BELMONT STAKES June 9, 2018

STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The final jewel of the Triple Crown is dubbed the “Test of a Champion” because of its 1 1/2 miles distance. Few championships actually have been won here in recent years, though. American Pharoah proved his mettle in sweeping the series in 2015. Belmont heroes ala Tonalist, Palace Malice, Summer Bird and Drosselmeyer went on to later successes to underscore their worth. And yet others were 1-hit wonders in the mold of a Da’ Taram, Jazil and Ruler On Ice. Preparation for the Belmont Stakes has evolved mostly into the camp of horsemen skipping the Preakness and accepting the fiveweek interval post-Derby. Belmont Park’s “big sandy” surface easily rates the most “horse-for-course” of any of the Triple Crown footings.

Simply put: If many factors appear comparable, horses who have run here in the past with success should be given a lean over those who are not proven on the surface. Resist the temptation for deep, home-run closers who you think will relish 1 1/2 miles. This race just isn’t won that way most years; it’s a grinder’s trip. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Without the Derby or Preakness winners, Tapwrit continued a successful run of freshened Belmont winners and gave the Ortiz Brothers a back-to-back celebration as Jose followed up Irad’s score the year prior on Creator. Tapwrit was Todd Pletcher’s 3rd Belmont win to go along with 5 runner-ups all-time. Favored Irish War Cry led most of the way and held a clear second.

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Belmont Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’17 Tapwrit J. Ortiz Pletcher 101 ’16 Creator I. Ortiz, Jr. Asmussen 103 ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 109 ’14 Tonalist Rosario Clement 108 ’13 Palace Malice Smith Pletcher 100 ’12 Union Rags Velazquez Matz 104 ’11 Ruler On Ice Valdivia Breen 107 ’10 Drosselmeyer Smith Mott 97 ’09 Summer Bird Desormeaux Ice 105 ’08 Da’Tara A. Garcia Zito 106 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Belmont Stakes Winners Tapwrit 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) Creator 13th Kentucky Derby (CD) American Pharoah 1st Preakness Stakes (Pim) Tonalist 1st Peter Pan (Bel) Palace Malice 12th Kentucky Derby (CD) Union Rags 7th Kentucky Derby (CD) Ruler On Ice 2nd Federico Tesio Stakes (Pim) Drosselmeyer 2nd Dwyer Stakes (Bel) Summer Bird 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) Da’Tara 2nd Barbaro Stakes (Pim)

INSIDE THE BELMONT STAKES: 4 of the last 6 Belmont winners who were horses who ran out of the money in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness (6 of last 14 as well). Only 8 Belmont winners since 1990 had competed in all 3 Triple Crown races, American Pharoah ’15 and Afleet Alex ’05 were the most recent. Tonalist in 2014 became the first Peter Pan-Belmont sweeper since A.P. Indy in ’92. Tapit has sired the past 2 winners – Creator and Tapwrit.

KDFW TO INCLUDE NEW DD

SPANNING THE GLOBE

This year’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pools will be Feb 9-11, March 9-11 & April 6-8. The March 9-11 pool will allow players to bet the Oaks-Derby double for the first time in the futures. In the Nov. 2326 earliest KDFW offered last fall, Bolt d’Oro was 7-1 and trailed only 6-5 favorite “All Other 3YOs.”

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Saxon Warrior won twice on the European trail to accumulate 20 points in Kentucky Derby qualifying. His scores at Naas (Ire) and Doncaster (Eng) were worth 10 points each. On the Japanese trail, last year Epicharis won the chase and bypassed the Derby for the Belmont, but was scratched. His successor could be determined in the Feb. 18 Hyacinth. So far, Ruggero and Le Vent Se Leve have registered 10 points each in Japan.

POINTS POINTS Kentucky Derby qualifying points for the BC Juvenile were upped this past year from 10 to 20 at the high end, and that gives Good Magic a 2YO-leading 24 in addition to his runner-up in the Champagne. In all, 10 horses earned 10 or more points as juveniles. Also note the addition of Remington Park’s Springboard Mile and how that could help some regional players at Oaklawn Park or Fair Grounds get over the hump on points.

VEGAS MOVERS & SHAKERS The Wynn Las Vegas’ notable drops so far: Avery Island (200 to 45), Curlin’s Honor (250-85), Enticed (150-20), Mississippi (250-75), Montauk (175-22), Promises Fulfilled (250- 65) and Solomini (150-18). Peace recently dropped 100 points (125-25) -- JP