Countdown to the Crown 2016 Preseason Annual

2

CONTENTS 2016 4

From The Publisher

6

Countdown History

10

Top 20 & All Americans

14

Juvenile Stakes Results ‘15

20

Top BRIS Figures ‘15

24

The Big List – ’16 Hopefuls

38

Beat the Host Preview

40

It’s the Horse, Of Course

Read why the people behind the horse matter less than you think.

44

May Madness

Every lineup needs a series of role players - horse racing included.

50

Triple Crown Nearly Tripled for Oaklawn Park

American Pharoah delivered, but, oh, what could have been!

58

Baltimore Has Become Title Town – Preakness

Why the middle jewel has shined brightest of all.

62

An Unbridled Legacy

70

Season of Chalk

76

Road to the Crown 2016

1990 Derby winner continues to impact the trail decades later.

Favorites are ruling the roost.

Prep schedule and full profile of every significant race all season.

146

Appendix

BRIS past performances for all Derby winners 2003-2015.

S E K A T S S S E y!

N a d K o T A s t ke st PRE c i T r u o se Y a h c r 141 u P 16 0 2 , 1 MAY 2

速

ner wn Win o r C e l p oah 2015 Tri an Phar c i r e m A

er

oth n a e r Is the

N

ROW C E L TRIP g?

akin m e h in t

May 21, 2016 Call 877-206-8042 for more information Preakness.com

@PreaknessStakes

/Preakness

4

From the Publisher The third Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual comes literally on the heels of history. American Pharoah took us places a year ago few other horses could. He made hearts race and stopped time. He forced the sports world to take notice and the general public as well. Elementary school principals stopped me daily to ask “Can he do it?” – and to pick up some wagers and souvenirs for them.

American Pharoah transcended what we do here in Countdown.

Yes, it took the 10th year of our online scouting report to finally count down all the way to zero.

But, oh, it was worth the wait!

I have been blessed to cover the Triple Crown races professionally since 1993. I thought the feeling I had in 2004 just prior to Birdstone catching Smarty Jones would never be topped. And even though American Pharoah wasn’t “my” horse like Smarty Jones was, when he struck the wire in front at Belmont Park, he became everyone’s horse for the ages. I was proud to have been there, and excited to see what’s next. - JP

Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2016 Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk Contributing Writers/Analysts Candice Hare Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz) Contributing Photographers NYRA / Adam Coglianese NYRA / Susie Raisher Woodbine / Michael Burns Keeneland / Z Churchill Downs / Reed Palmer Oaklawn / Coady Photography MD Jockey Club / Jim McCue Golden Gate Fields / Vassar Photo Tampa Bay Downs / SV Photos Santa Anita / Benoit Photos Fair Grounds / Lou Hodges Sunland Park / Coady Photography Gulfstream Park / Bob Coglianese Hawthorne / Four Footed Fotos

5

A N Y W H E R E

WATCH AND WAGER FROM ANYWHERE! • Exclusive handicapping tips and tools • FREE Past Performances • Live streaming video and race replays • Real time racing information • EZmoney online deposit and withdrawal service Be a part of all the action Anywhere in Arkansas!

$100 SIGN UP BONUS AT OAKLAWNANYWHERE.COM

Gambling Problem? 1-800-522-4700

6

th

11 season begins for Countdown to the Crown

By Jeremy Plonk

Maybe it was just fitting that the season 10 finale of Countdown to

the the Crown

actually ended with the crown being fitted to American Pharoah.

After nearly 250 editions of the weekly scouting report, the sweep was realized. It took a very special horse to complete it, and American Pharoah no doubt belongs in the pantheon of racing’s greatest 3year-olds. We have scouted more than 3,000 sophomores in the history of Countdown, and he stands alone at the top.

So, who’s next? That’s our goal as the second decade of the series begins this year. The discovery of something new, finding the next big thing or simply putting what we’ve seen among the Triple Crown prospects into a sensible context long has been my desired

goal. And for each feeling of mission accomplished, a new week comes along and we get to hit the reset button and do it all over again. That ability to spawn new enthusiasm is what makes the leadup to the Triple Crown so special. You don’t get that same feeling moving from $5,000 claimer to $5,000 claimer each Thursday.

Countdown to the Crown is

detailed, and I make no apologies for that. Those who’ve followed the decade-long series have read more than 1 million words about the top prospects. Handicapping horse races is an intellectual exercise, and the drive-by society not interested in putting in the effort

BET ANY RACE FROM ANY PLACE

$

Free to Use Live Odds Deposit Money Withdraw Money Stream Video View Results

Whether you’re sitting on your couch or at the track, never wait in line or miss a bet with Xpressbet Mobile.

/mobile

won’t ever be turned on to it. It’s never been my desire to make things watered down so more folks might stumble into a short-term interest.

Countdown is written for serious

horseplayers and followers of the game’s true regular season, playoffs and Super Bowl. It’s the one time of year where things are defined, goals are common and we can envision players and schedules with a championship sense.

This marks the third year that I’ve taken full control of the direction and distribution of Countdown to the Crown. I’ve bounced Countdown around on various websites since its debut in 2006.

Each time, the decision was mine when to move, and for strategic reasons; first and foremost: where I thought it could best benefit you, the reader and bettor.    

Horseplayerdaily.com (2006-‘07) ESPN.com (2008-‘11) DRF.com (2012-‘13) Countdowntothecrown.com (2014-present)

Countdown runs from the first

Friday in January through the Belmont Stakes, about 22 weeks

8

per year on average. Two years ago, we added coverage of Canada’s prestigious Queen’s Plate trail and main event. This expanded the series into the first weekend in July.

Countdown is a week-long exercise that begins each Monday with a review of the charts, videos and coverage of the previous week’s 3year-old races. Also each Monday, I set out the weekly calendar and plot each and every 3-year-old maiden special weight, allowance and stakes race on my weekly worksheets that soon start to look like a Chinese takeout menu.

By the end of the day on Tuesday, I’ve written all the race reviews and recaps and put half of the scouting report to bed.

With Wednesday’s entries for Saturday released, my work begins in handicapping each of the races for not only prospects, but also potential plays. We don’t put this kind of effort in just for verbage.

By Thursday night, my handicapping is complete; and on Friday each week I put the finishing touches in with my updated Top 20 before the official release.

– JP

10

Jeremy Plonk’s Top 20 - Updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

NYQUIST

AMIS GIZMO

MOR SPIRIT

GIFT BOX

Trainer: Doug O’Neill Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) San Vicente-Florida Derby the prep plan.

Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Dortmund path had Lewis up next.

SWIPE

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Has fared better at SA than Exaggerator.

BRODY’S CAUSE

Trainer: Dale Romans Winter Home: Gulfstream Park (Fla.) Expect FG raids due to closing style.

EXAGGERATOR

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Likely travels more than Swipe on trail.

MOHAYMEN

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Leads the Fountain of Youth hopefuls.

GREENPOINTCRUSADER Trainer: Dominic Schettino Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Gulfstream and Wood Mem’l figure in plans.

DREFONG

Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) May be barn’s Oaklawn road warrior.

AIROFORCE

Trainer: Mark Casse Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) I’d like to see Tampa-Blue Grass path.

RAFTING

Trainer: Graham Motion Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) GP or Tam programs fit the bill for riser.

Trainer: Josie Carroll Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) May be best 2YO via Canada in C2C era.

Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Fountain of Youth seems logical target.

CONQUEST BIG E

Trainer: Mark Casse Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Holy Bull or Sam Davis make logical sense.

GUN RUNNER

Trainer: Steve Asmussen Winter Home: Fair Grounds (La.) Lecomte-Risen Star likely return spots.

FLEXIBILITY

Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Belmont Park (NY) Appears barn’s NY winter warrior to start.

SYNCHRONY

Trainer: Donnie K. Von Hemel Winter Home: Oaklawn Park (Ark.) Smarty Jones or Southwest to open 2016.

SAIL AHOY

Trainer: Shug McGaughey Winter Home: Payson Park (Fla.) Barn loves to open 3YOs in GP allowances.

SHAGAF

Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Unlimited options in NY/FL from N1X & up.

STRADIVARI

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Winter Home: Palm Beach Downs (Fla.) 1st-level GP allowance TAP’s MO w/ these.

SEMPER FORTIS

Trainer: Doug O’Neill Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Will play where Nyquist, Ralis et al do not.

11

Pedigrees to Follow (Listed Alphabetically)

Destin Dolphus Emotionless Finnegan General MacArthur Good Genes Ishaq (pictured/inside) Mohaymen Morse Code Never So Few Sail Ahoy Semper Fortis Shore Leave Stradivari Synchrony Ziconic

Giant’s Causeway-Dream of Summer half-brother to Rachel Alexandra Shamardal-Unbridled Elaine half-brother to Bodemeister War Front-Imagine half-brother to Awesome Feather dam full-sister to Smarty Jones Tapit-Justwhistledixie half-brother to Honor Code Galileo-Rags to Riches half-bro to Pine Island, Point of Entry half-brother to Carpe Diem half-brother to Orb Medglia d’Oro-Bending Strings Tapit-Brownie Points Tapit-Zenyatta

12

COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN ALL-AMERICAN TEAMS Jeremy Plonk selects his Super High 5 lists of this year’s best – from the horses to the humans!

All-Established Team (proven form at age 2)  Nyquist  Swipe  Mohaymen  Mor Spirit  Brody’s Cause

Honorable Mention: Exaggerator, Amis Gizmo, Airoforce

All-Potential Team (sleepers you might not have heard of yet)  Rafting  Drefong  Synchrony  Shagaf  Stradivari

Honorable Mention: Knights Key,

Secret Passage, Awesome Speed, Greatest Game.

All-Small Barn Team (hailing from unheralded trainers)  Exaggerator & Swipe (both Keith Desormeaux)  Greenpointcrusader (Dominic Schettino)  Ishaq (Efren Loza)  Amis Gizmo (Josie Carroll)  Awesome Speed (Alan Goldberg)

Honorable Mention: Knights Key

(Steve Hobby), Dressed In Hermes (Janet Armstrong), Mana Strike (Frank Lucarelli), Pirellone (Ralph Nicks), Zapperini (Greg Foley), Smokey Image (Greg James).

All-American Prep Trainers (load up your fantasy team)  Steve Asmussen  Bob Baffert  Chad Brown  Kiaran McLaughlin  Doug O’Neill

Honorable Mention: Mark Casse,

Todd Pletcher, Keith Desormeaux, Jerry Hollendorfer, Dale Romans, Donnie K. Von Hemel, Shug McGaughey.

14

2015 JUVENILE STAKES RESULTS DATE

RACE

TRK

STAKES WINNER

SIRE

5-Jun

TREMONT

BEL

COCKED AND LOADED

COLONEL JOHN

20-Jun

MOUNTAIN TOP FUTURITY

RUI

DIABOLICAL KING

DIABOLICAL

20-Jun

VICTORIA

WO

HOLLYWOOD HIDEAWAY

ZENSATIONAL

21-Jun

SANTA ANITA JUVENILE

SA

FOUND MONEY

SQUARE EDDIE

27-Jun

BASHFORD MANOR

CD

HE'S COMIN IN HOT

EARLY FLYER

5-Jul

CLARENDON

WO

BELIVEAU

WHERE'S THE RING

5-Jul

IOWA STALLION FUTURITY

PRM

CORNFED

PASS RUSH

5-Jul

BIRDONTHEWIRE

GP

FRANCESCO BLUE

LEROISDESANIMAUX

5-Jul

EVERETT NEVIN

PLN

SMOKEY IMAGE

SOUTHERN IMAGE

11-Jul

D. S. SHINE YOUNG FUT

EVD

CALE'S GOLD

GOLD TRIBUTE

11-Jul

TTA SALES FUTURITY

LS

TEXAS CHROME

GRASSHOPPER

12-Jul

HOOVER

BTP

KIOSK'S CAUSE

NOBLE CAUSEWAY

12-Jul

SUMMER JUVENILE CHAMP

LRC

SWIPE

BIRDSTONE

18-Jul

ROCKVILLE CENTRE

BEL

MANIPULATED

MALIBU MOON

18-Jul

PRAIRIE GOLD JUVENILE

PRM

STORMATION

STORMY ATLANTIC

19-Jul

EMERALD EXPRESS

EMD

BARKLEY

MUNNINGS

25-Jul

EDMONTON JUVENILE

NP

HOLD THE GIANT

HOLD ME BACK

25-Jul

COLIN

WO

RIKER

INCLUDE

25-Jul

SANFORD

SAR

UNCLE VINNY

UNCLE MO

26-Jul

RIO GRANDE SENOR FUT

RUI

STORM WARRIOR

WEATHER WARNING

1-Aug

MOUNTAINEER JUVENILE

MNR

BULLET GONE ASTRAY

GONE ASTRAY

3-Aug

BRITISH COL NURSERY

HST

STANZ IN COMMAND

SECOND IN COMMAND

5-Aug

GRADUATION

DMR

MRAZEK

SQUARE EDDIE

7-Aug

PRAIRIE MDS JUV MILE

PRM

PINNACLE PEAK

YES IT'S TRUE

8-Aug

FLORIDA SIRE DR. FAGER

GP

DREAM OF ME

HIGH COTTON

8-Aug

LOUISIANA CUP JUVENILE

LAD

ICY GENTLEMAN

YANKEE GENTLEMAN

8-Aug

CLEVELAND KINDERGARTEN

TDN

MASTER MICK

TWO STEP SALSA

8-Aug

TWO YEAR OLD SALES

NP

MODERNOTIS

STEPHANOTIS

8-Aug

BEST PAL

DMR

NYQUIST

UNCLE MO

8-Aug

IOWA CRADLE

PRM

ONE FINE DREAM

WOKE UP DREAMIN

9-Aug

TYRO

MTH

EXPECTED RULER

LEROIDESANIMAUX

15-Aug

W.T.B.A. LADS

EMD

MACH ONE RULES

HARBOR THE GOLD

15-Aug

VANDAL

WO

RUTH LESS BLUE

GIANT GIZMO

16-Aug

SARATOGA SPECIAL

SAR

EXAGGERATOR

CURLIN

16-Aug

CAVONNIER JUVENILE

SR

SMOKEY IMAGE

SOUTHERN IMAGE

16-Aug

GOLD RUSH FUTURITY

ARP

TEXAS CHROME

GRASSHOPPER

18-Aug

TOTAH

SRP

MR. DIGGER

QUINTON'S GOLD

21-Aug

NEW WESTMINSTER

HST

STANZ IN COMMAND

SECOND IN COMMAND

21-Aug

SCHENECTADY

SAR

TOO DISCREET

DISCREET CAT

22-Aug

ARLINGTON-WASH FUT

SHOGOOD

NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ

28-Aug

FUNNY CIDE

SAR

SUDDEN SURPRISE

GIANT SURPRISE

29-Aug

EVANGELINE DOWNS STARS

EVD

ZACKAROONEY

K ONE KING

AP

16

2015 JUVENILE STAKES RESULTS

2-Sep

SIMCOE

WO

AMIS GIZMO (above)

GIANT GIZMO

2-Sep

WITH ANTICIPATION

SAR

AZAR

SCAT DADDY

4-Sep

I'M SMOKIN

DMR

SMOKEY IMAGE

SOUTHERN IMAGE

5-Sep

CALUMET FARM JUVENILE

KD

CAJUN SCHILL

ARTIE SCHILLER

5-Sep

DEL MAR JUVENILE TURF

DMR

HOLLYWOOD DON

TAPIT

5-Sep

BIRDCATCHER

NP

KRISTOFFERSON

ROCK HARD TEN

5-Sep

SWYNFORD

WO

RIKER

INCLUDE

5-Sep

FLORIDA SIRE AFFIRMED

GP

TRIBAL DRAMA

BIG DRAMA

6-Sep

MARK MCDERMOTT

PID

BALK

STREET BOSS

6-Sep

NORTHERN LIGHTS FUT

CBY

SMOOTH CHIRAZ

CHITOZ

6-Sep

SAPLING

MTH

SUNNY RIDGE

HOLY BULL

7-Sep

CTHS SALES

HST

FEAR OF THE CAT

ABRAAJ

7-Sep

DEL MAR FUTURITY

DMR

NYQUIST

UNCLE MO

7-Sep

HOPEFUL

SAR

RALIS

SQUARE EDDIE

12-Sep

IROQUOIS

CD

COCKED AND LOADED

COLONEL JOHN

12-Sep

SUMMER

WO

CONQUEST DADDYO

SCAT DADDY

12-Sep

LAUREL FUTURITY

LRL

FORMAL SUMMATION

IN SUMMATION

12-Sep

TEXAS STALLION

RET

HE'S COMIN IN HOT

EARLY FLYER

12-Sep

LOYALTY

BTP

MY PARDNER CAL

BIG ATLANTIC

17

2015 JUVENILE STAKES RESULTS 12-Sep

FIRST STATE DASH

DEL

ONEPOINTTWENTYONE

E DUBAI

12-Sep

LOUISIANA STALLION

LAD

OUR RAPIDASH

HALF OURS

12-Sep

SHAKOPEE JUVENILE

CBY

STORMATION

STORMY ATLANTIC

12-Sep

SUNDAY SILENCE

LAD

UNCLE BRENNIE

UNCLE MO

13-Sep

CAPTAIN CONDO

EMD

MACH ONE RULES

HARBOR THE GOLD

13-Sep

CONTENDER

LRC

MT VEEDER

GHOSTZAPPER

18-Sep

ASPIRANT

FL

LOVE THAT JAZZ

NOT FOR LOVE

19-Sep

ALBERTA PREMIER'S FUT

NP

VICTORY DAY

EXHI

20-Sep

JACK DIAMOND FUTURITY

HST

POWER CORRUPT

STORM VICTORY

20-Sep

BARRETTS JUVENILE

LRC

TOEWS ON ICE

ARCHARCHARCH

25-Sep

MANZANO

ALB

COOLIDGE

EL MIRAGE

26-Sep

PILGRIM

BEL

ISOTHERM

LONHRO

26-Sep

FRONTRUNNER

SA

NYQUIST

UNCLE MO

27-Sep

BULL PAGE

WO

AMIS GIZMO

GIANT GIZMO

27-Sep

KIP DEVILLE

RP

BRING IT ON DUDE

MUNNINGS

27-Sep

GOTTSTEIN FUTURITY

EMD

GOLD RUSH DANCER

PRIVATE GOLD

27-Sep

NWSS CAHILL ROAD

EMD

MACH ONE RULES

HARBOR THE GOLD

27-Sep

CAMINO REAL FUTURITY

ALB

STORMIN THE JEWELS

ATTILA'S STORM

27-Sep

BERTRAM F. BONGARD

BEL

SUDDEN SURPRISE

GIANT SURPRISE

30-Sep

CROWN AMBASSADOR

IND

DERBY EXPRESS

UNBRIDLED EXPRESS

30-Sep

HILLSDALE

IND

JUSTICE FOR THEMOB

LANTANA MOB

3-Oct

BREEDERS' FUTURITY

KEE

BRODY'S CAUSE (below)

GIANT'S CAUSEWAY

18

2015 JUVENILE STAKES RESULTS 3-Oct

EL JOVEN

RET

CASH BONUS

CORINTHIAN

3-Oct

FLORIDA SIRE IN REALITY

GP

FELLOWSHIP

AWESOME OF COURSE

3-Oct

ARMED FORCES

GP

GOLDEN PIRATE

FLASHSTORM

3-Oct

CHAMPAGNE

BEL

GREENPOINTCRUSADER

BERNARDINI

4-Oct

BOURBON

KEE

AIROFORCE

COLONEL JOHN

4-Oct

GREY

WO

RIKER

INCLUDE

6-Oct

FITZ DIXON, JR. MEMORIAL

PID

BALK

STREET BOSS

10-Oct

VINCENT MOSCARELLI BC

CT

BULLETS FEVER

FIBER SONDE

10-Oct

ZUMA BEACH

SA

DRESSED IN HERMES

HAT TRICK

10-Oct

JUVENILE

TDN

UNBRIDLED TRICK

SONGANDAPRAYER

11-Oct

CUP AND SAUCER

WO

CONQUEST ENFORCER

INTO MISCHIEF

12-Oct

ASCOT GRADUATION

HST

CRAZY PROPHET

ROSBERG

12-Oct

GOVERNOR'S CUP

ZIA

TEXAS CHROME

GRASSHOPPER

16-Oct

OKLAHOMA CLASSICS JUV

RP

BRING IT ON DUDE

MUNNINGS

17-Oct

FUTURITY

BEL

ANNUAL REPORT

HARLAN'S HOLIDAY

17-Oct

MD MILLION NURSERY

LSL

CORVUS

DANCE WITH RAVENS

17-Oct

NEW YORK BREEDERS' FUT

FL

DR. SHANE

FREUD

18-Oct

SPEAKEASY

SA

TOEWS ON ICE

ARCHARCHARCH

24-Oct

CANADIAN JUVENILE

NP

AWESOME SLATE

SUMMER BIRD

24-Oct

JEAN LAFITTE

DED

FOREVAMO

UNCLE MO

24-Oct

SLEEPY HOLLOW

BEL

GET JETS

SCAT DADDY

30-Oct

BC JUVENILE TURF

KEE

HIT IT A BOMB

WAR FRONT

30-Oct

AWAD

BEL

MOUNTAIN MUSIC MAN

BLUEGRASS CAT

30-Oct

GOLDEN STATE JUVENILE

DMR

SMOKEY IMAGE

SOUTHERN IMAGE

31-Oct

TRI-STATE FUTURITY

CT

BULLETS FEVER

FIBER SONDE

31-Oct

INDIANA FUTURITY

IND

DERBY EXPRESS

UNBRIDLED EXPRESS

31-Oct

BC JUVENILE

KEE

NYQUIST

UNCLE MO

31-Oct

JUVENILE DIRT SPRINT

KEE

SHEIKH OF SHEIKS

DISCREETLY MINE

1-Nov

NM CUP JUVENILE CHAMP

ZIA

BACK SEAT HERO

DIABOLICAL

1-Nov

STREET SENSE

CD

MO TOM

UNCLE TOM

4-Nov

FROST KING

WO

AMIS GIZMO

GIANT GIZMO

4-Nov

NASHUA

AQU

MOHAYMEN

TAPIT

6-Nov

CLEVER TREVOR

RP

SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS

MINESHAFT

7-Nov

JUVENILE SPRINT

GP

LI'L MEATBALL

GRAEME HALL

7-Nov

JUVENILE TURF

GP

LITTLE NICK V.

COLONEL JOHN

8-Nov

CORONATION FUTURITY

WO

SHAKHIMAT

LONHRO

14-Nov

JAMES F. LEWIS III

LRL

AWESOME SPEED

AWESOME AGAIN

14-Nov

BOB HOPE

DMR

TOEWS ON ICE

ARCHARCHARCH

15-Nov

CHRISTOPHER ELSER MEM’L

PHA

BIG LOUIE D

STORMY ATLANTIC

21-Nov

DELTA DOWNS JACKPOT

DED

EXAGGERATOR

CURLIN

21-Nov

LOUISIANA LEGACY

DED

SEA VOW

PRIVATE VOW

21-Nov

NOTEBOOK

AQU

SUDDEN SURPRISE

GIANT SURPRISE

25-Nov

EDDY COUNTY

ZIA

GOLD BOUNDRY

QUINTON'S GOLD

19

2015 JUVENILE STAKES RESULTS 27-Nov

KING'S SWAN

AQU

JAN'S RESERVE

READY'S IMAGE

27-Nov

DON MCNEILL

RP

ROYAL LION

KITALPHA

28-Nov

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB

CD

AIROFORCE (below)

COLONEL JOHN

28-Nov

BUFFALO MAN

GP

FULL SALUTE

SPEIGHTSTOWN

28-Nov

REMSEN

MOHAYMEN

TAPIT

28-Nov

SMOOTH AIR

GP

RAFTING

TAPIT

28-Nov

PULPIT

GP

SWAGGER JAGGER

CROWN OF THORNS

28-Nov

KINGARVIE

WO

AMIS GIZMO

GIANT GIZMO

29-Nov

DISPLAY

WO

DON'T BE SO SALTY

TIZ WONDERFUL

29-Nov

CECIL B. DEMILLE

DMR

DRESSED IN HERMES

HAT TRICK

5-Dec

PENNSYLVANIA NURSERY

PHA

BIRD OF TREY

BIRDSTONE

5-Dec

ARIZONA BREEDERS' FUT

TUP

COOLIDGE

EL MIRAGE

5-Dec

GOLD RUSH

GG

MANA STRIKE

PAPA CLEM

5-Dec

JOSHUA RADOSEVICH

PHA

MY PARDNER CAL

BIG ATLANTIC

5-Dec

MARYLANDER

LRL

VORTICITY

DISTORTED HUMOR

12-Dec

KING GLORIOUS

LRC

FOUND MONEY

SQUARE EDDIE

12-Dec

JIM EDGAR ILLINOIS FUT

HAW

RICHIE THE BULL

BENNY THE BULL

12-Dec

LA CHAMPIONS DAY JUV

FG

SEA VOW

PRIVATE VOW

13-Dec

SPRINGBOARD MILE

RP

DISCREETNESS

DISCREET CAT

AQU

FASTEST SPEED RATINGS OF 2015 JUVENILES

20

HORSE: SEX: RATING: TRACK: DATE: Dst.: Srfc: Morning Fire C 105 PRX 10/26/2015 6 D Krews Pass C 105 CPW 7/26/2015 4.5 D Onepointtwentyone C 104 DEL 9/12/2015 5.5 D Behrnik's Bank F 103 PEN 11/25/2015 6 D Sunny Ridge G 103 DED 11/21/2015 8.5 D Exaggerator C 103 DED 11/21/2015 8.5 D Mohaymen C 102 AQU 11/28/2015 9 D Songbird F 102 SA 9/26/2015 8.5 D Smokey Image C 102 DMR 9/4/2015 6 D Nyquist C 102 DMR 8/8/2015 6.5 D High Legend F 102 HP 7/24/2015 4 D Songbird F 102 KEE 10/31/2015 8.5 D Cathryn Sophia F 102 LRL 12/5/2015 7 D Danzing Candy C 101 SA 12/26/2015 7 D Bird of Trey C 100 PRX 10/26/2015 6 D Young Brian C 100 DMR 8/8/2015 6.5 D Big Louie D C 100 PRX 11/15/2015 6.5 D Off the Tracks F 100 SAR 7/24/2015 6 D Flexibility C 100 AQU 11/28/2015 9 D Shagaf C 99 AQU 11/22/2015 8 D He's Comin in Hot G 99 RET 9/12/2015 6 D Full Salute C 99 PRX 9/26/2015 6.5 D Bird of Trey C 99 PRX 12/5/2015 7 D Kandoo F 99 GP 7/18/2015 4.5 D Gift Box C 99 AQU 11/28/2015 9 D Toews On Ice C 99 LRC 9/20/2015 6.5 D Cathryn Sophia F 99 PRX 10/30/2015 6 D

FASTEST SPEED RATINGS OF 2015 JUVENILES Carina Mia Catch a Glimpse Ralis Bird of Trey Land Over Sea Awesome Banner Ballet Diva Blameitonthelaw Greenpointcrusader Bravura Full Salute Harlan Punch Songbird Swipe Nyquist Championofthenile Ishaq Matt King Coal Mountain Music Man

Call the Colonel Rally Cry Epic Journey Cat Tree Nyquist Hit It a Bomb Mr. Coker Gift Box Awesome Speed

F F C C F C F C C C C C F C C C C C C C C G C C C C C C

98 98 98 98 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96

KEE WO SAR PRX SA GP GP DMR BEL RET GPW DED DMR KEE KEE SAR TAM BEL BEL KEE GP TAM GPW SA KEE SA BEL LRL

10/29/2015 9/12/2015 9/7/2015 9/26/2015 9/26/2015 6/5/2015 7/5/2015 8/2/2015 10/3/2015 9/12/2015 11/28/2015 11/21/2015 9/5/2015 10/31/2015 10/31/2015 9/4/2015 11/28/2015 10/29/2015 10/30/2015 10/15/2015 12/26/2015 12/19/2015 11/28/2015 9/26/2015 10/30/2015 12/26/2015 10/3/2015 11/14/2015

6.5 8 7 6.5 8.5 4.5 5.5 5.5 8 6 6 8.5 7 8.5 8.5 6.5 5.5 8 8 7 8 6 6 8.5 8 7 8.5 6

D T D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D T D D D D D T D D D

21

FASTEST SPEED RATINGS OF 2015 JUVENILES Airoforce Dr Blarney Street Vision Eighth Wonder Carina Mia Just Wicked Toews On Ice Formal Summation Uncle Walter Drefong Who's Out Pirellone Mor Spirit Airoforce Shakhimat Dancie Constellation Island Saint Matt King Coal Found Money Get Jets Mrazek Epic Journey Mt Veeder Libreta Twirling Tiger Belvoir Bay (GB) Swipe

C G C F F F C C C C C C R C C F F F C C C C G C F G F C

96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95

CD SUF SA PRX CD SAR DMR GPW KEE DMR DMR GPW LRC KEE WO GP AQU GP BEL DMR BEL DMR KEE LRC BEL DMR SA SA

11/28/2015 10/31/2015 9/27/2015 11/15/2015 11/28/2015 8/15/2015 11/14/2015 11/28/2015 10/15/2015 11/14/2015 8/29/2015 11/28/2015 12/19/2015 10/30/2015 11/8/2015 7/18/2015 11/26/2015 12/11/2015 10/3/2015 9/4/2015 9/27/2015 8/5/2015 10/15/2015 9/13/2015 9/27/2015 11/26/2015 12/27/2015 9/26/2015

8.5 5.5 6.5 6.5 8.5 6.5 7 6 7 6 6.5 6 8.5 8 9 4.5 6 6 8.5 6 7 5.5 7 6 6.5 8 8 8.5

D D D D D D D D D D D D D T A D D D D D D D D D D D T D

22

FASTEST SPEED RATINGS OF 2015 JUVENILES Texas Chrome Annie's Candy Smokey Image Behrnik's Bank Never Gone South Pretty N Cool Rachel's Valentina Birchwood (IRE) Amis Gizmo Get Jets Airoforce Sudden Surprise Black Ops Sugar Buzz Stays in Vegas Manhattan Dan Riker Nyquist Amira J Zulu Forever Darling Cards of Stone Brody's Cause Banree

C C C F C F F C C C C C G G F C C C F C F G C F

95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95

RET SA DMR PEN LRL DMR KEE KEE WO BEL KD BEL CD DMR SA SAR WO SA AP GP SA AQU KEE SAR

9/12/2015 6/5/2015 10/30/2015 11/4/2015 11/14/2015 7/19/2015 10/31/2015 10/30/2015 11/4/2015 10/24/2015 9/5/2015 9/27/2015 11/28/2015 11/26/2015 10/10/2015 8/19/2015 7/25/2015 6/5/2015 7/3/2015 12/5/2015 9/26/2015 12/6/2015 10/3/2015 7/24/2015

6 5 7 6 6 5 8.5 8 7 8 6 7 8.5 8 8 5.5 6 5 5 6 6.5 8 8.5 6

D D D D D D D T A D T D D D T T A D A D D D D D

23

24

Contenders * Connections * Pedigrees * Winter Book Odds First-ever EXCLUSIVE star ratings for each!

25

Horse

ABERCORN ADRIENNE'S WARRIOR ADVENTIST AIR FORCE BLUE AIROFORCE AIR VICE MARSHAL AIRMAN'S CREED ALGENON ALLABOUTACTION ALL WORLD** AMAZON STORM AMERICAN DUBAI AMIS GIZMO ANNALS OF TIME ANNIE'S CANDY ANNUAL REPORT ARABIAN LEOPARD ARCATURE ASTROLOGIST AVAST MATEY AWESOME SLATE AWESOME SLEW AWESOME SPEED AYE AYE CAPTAIN AYYOH AZAR BANDWIDTH BARKLEY BATTERY BATTLE TAP BELIVEAU BIG LOUIE D BIRCHWOOD BIRD OF TREY BLACK OPS

Odds

250 150 175 100 20 200 225 300 300 80 300 200 65 250 225 60 175 150 200 225 275 150 200 200 350 250 100 275 150 125 175 300 175 150 225

Trainer

Gold Nihei Gyarmati O’Brien Casse O’Brien Lukas Kasmerski Hollendorfer Pletcher Asmussen Richards J. Carroll C. Brown Miller McLaughlin Baffert S. Callaghan Albertrani Nicks Rycroft Plesa Goldberg Day-Phillips C. Lynch Pletcher Catalano H. Belvoir Pletcher Asmussen Casse John Servis Fahey John Servis Richards

Sire

Brooks ‘n Down Warrior’s Reward Any Given Saturday

War Front Colonel John War Front Distorted Humor Aragorn Candy Ride Curlin Primal Storm E Dubai Giant Gizmo Temple City Twirling Candy Harlan’s Holiday Scat Daddy Archarcharch Discreet Cat Birdstone Summer Bird Awesome Again Awesome Again Old Forester Hard Spun Scat Daddy Mineshaft Munnings Bernardini Smart Strike Where’s The Ring Stormy Atlantic Dark Angel Birdstone Hard Spun

Stars

** * ** *** ***** ** ** * ** ** * * ***** ** ** *** ** * * * * * *** * * *** ** * ** *** * ** ** *** **

Jeremy Plonk’s Notables

Route tested in FSS at GPW. Out since Aug. GP debut win.

Dam ½ to Flag Down; Aqu MSW. Irish G1 winning 2YO w/ genes.

Fast dirt surface big hurdle left. ½ to G1 sprint star Contested.

Flanders’ grandson to OP MSWs. Hard-knocking NoCal 2YO. Full-bro Looking Cool (IA Derby).

Rookie with some PBD buzz.

Working at FG; June Indy win.

6F debut winner CD fall MSW. Canadian star can play in US. Turf genes; Aqu 1M-T debut win.

Stakes-placed, bred for sprints.

Futurity winner mulligan at CD? Modest genes; took 5x to score.

Out since Aug. 1M-T debut win.

NY-bred turf sprint MSW victor.

Edged Pletcher in Dec. GP MSW. Canadian Juv win at Northlands.

AWOL since Sanford 4th at Spa. Lrl’s Lewis winner bred route.

Kingarvie 2nd a Qn’s Plate-type.

Mid-Atl sprinter out since Oct. Top turfer … maybe for Spiral?

Out since Kee, decent damside.

Away since July Emd stakes win.

GPW MSW route win; sprint dam CD victor deserves pass RP mud.

Early 2YO WO dash stakes force.

Prx stakes winner at Palm Mds. BC Juvy Turf 3rd bred all grass.

PA Nursery champ wants more.

Solid CD MSW route win + ped.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

26

BLAMEITON BROOKLYN BLAMEITONTHELAW BONDURANT BRING IT ON DUDE BRODY'S CAUSE BUTTERFLY DANCE CAJUN SCHILL CALE'S GOLD CALL TO HONOR CAMELOT KITTEN CANADA CARINA MIA (F) CASTLE CAT TREE CATAPULT CELESTIAL INSIGHT (F) CHAMPIONOFTHENILE CHARMING INDY CHERRY WINE COCKED AND LOADED COCO IS LOCO CODE WARRIOR (F) COLLECTED COMICAS CONDO KING CONNECT CONQUEST BIG E CONQUEST DADDYO CONQUEST ENFORCER CONQUEST EXPRESSO CONQUEST HARLEQUIN CONQUEST NITRO CONQUEST TWISTER CONQUEST WINDYCITY COOLIDGE CORNFED

175 175 150 275 22 350 300 400 350 275 300 150 225 225 200 300 125 225 200 75 300 250 200 200 225 45 150 125 225 150 400 225 100 400 300

Schettino Sadler Wilkes Trout Romans Pierce Kaplan Broberg Pinchin C. Brown S. Callaghan Mott Dunham Kobiskie C. Brown Ward L. Rice Schettino Romans Rivelli Rodriguez Badilla Baffert bin Suroor Rodriguez C. Brown Casse Casse Casse Casse Casse Casse Casse Casse Schnell Ashford

Blame Blame War Front Munnings Giant’s Causeway

Awesome Again Artie Schiller Gold Tribute High Cotton Kitten’s Joy Giant’s Causeway

Malibu Moon Slew’s Tiznow Discreet Cat Kitten’s Joy Scat Daddy Pioneerof The Nile

Girolamo Paddy O’Prado Colonel John Macho Uno Society’s Chairman

City Zip Distorted Humor Tiz Wonderful Curlin Tapit Scat Daddy Into Mischief Munnings Harlan’s Holiday High Cotton Twirling Candy Tiznow El Mirage Pass Rush

* **** *** ** ***** ** ** * * ** ** *** * * * * * * ** *** ** * ** * * * **** *** ** ** * ** ** *** * *

Out since Spa debut 2nd; route?

Capable of breakout SA effort.

Key race turfer at CD and Kee. Sharp OK-bred, but route at OP? Kee victory among best of ’15.

Cup and Saucer 2nd on WO lawn.

Turfer out since KD Juvy score.

Shine Young winner sprint-only.

Couldn’t hold speed in FSS route.

Bourbon runner-up a Spiral shot.

Well-bred SA MSW-T grad.

Star filly aimed at Oaks path.

Cal-bred AWOL since May debut.

Early season sprint-type 3YO. Oct. Bel MSW-T debut winner.

Sharp 1M TP ALW winner in Dec. NYB stakes-type out since Nov. Came to hand late fall vs. NYBs. Freaked on wet track CD fall.

Better-than-seems 5th BC Juvy.

NYB debut win impressed turf.

Dominant NoCal filly sprinter.

Future appears as a turf miler.

Full bro to ’15 soph Wisecracker.

Sprinter broke through in 3rd try.

Debut 3rd to Condo King at Big A. BC too much too soon; a talent.

Strong turfer; grandson T-Gulch.

Broke mdn in WO turf stakes.

Must answer 2-turn question.

Absent since June debut CD 3rd.

Couldn’t match toughies at Spa. Coronation Fut 2nd now in Fla. Out since Kee win; well-bred.

Western Canada/Arizona player.

Iowa-bred SW out since Aug.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

28

CRIMSON VALOR DAMASCUS ROAD DAN THE GO TO MAN DANZING CANDY DELTA PRINCE DESERVED DESTIN DEVILS INFORMER D'FUNNYTHING DIPLODOCUS DIRECT MESSAGE DISCREETNESS DISSIDENT DOLPHUS DONEGAL MOON DR. DORR DREFONG DREAM OF ME DREAM TEAM DRESSED IN HERMES DUBDUBWATSON ECONOMIC MODEL EL CHARRO EMOTIONLESS ETERNAL BIRD EXAGGERATOR EXPECTED RULER EXTINCT CHARM FASHION DESIGNER FASHIONABLE FREDDY FELLOWSHIP FINNEGAN FISH TRAPPE ROAD FLASH McCAUL FLEXIBILITY FLYING AROUND

350 250 350 150 150 100 250 300 250 150 200 125 150 200 175 60 275 250 175 275 85 300 200 175 20 300 350 250 200 225 250 60 400

Ritchey Casse Kenneally Sise

Summer Bird Bellamy Road Smoke Glacken Twirling Candy Street Cry Flatter

Mott Giant's Causeway Pletcher Puype Informed Asmussen D'Funnybone Baltas Sky Mesa Albertrani Bernardini Fires Discreet Cat Pletcher Medaglia d'Oro Sharp Lookin At Lucky Pletcher Malibu Moon Baffert Lookin At Lucky Baffert Gio Ponti Varsi High Cotton Baffert Tapit Armstrong Hat Trick Brocklebank Kipling Brown Flatter J.A. Rodriguez Put It Back Appleby Shamardal Brown Tiznow Desormeaux Curlin Benson Leriodesanimaux Contessa American Lion Ice Old Fashioned Zito Tiznow Awesome of Course Gold Ward Unbridled's Song Calhoun Trappe Shot Trombetta Friesan Fire Brown Bluegrass Cat Rivelli Cowboy Cal

* * ** ** ** * *** * * * ** *** *** *** *** *** **** ** ** *** * *** ** ** ** ***** ** ** * ** *** *** ** ** **** *

Del MSW nibbler out of action.

No match for ‘Big E’ in CD ALW. Kee sprint winner w/ distance ?

Strong 7F MSW win SA 12/26.

Rookie o/o turfy Delta Princess.

Our since Bel MSW 2nd in Sept.

Mama route star; 2nd GP ALW. Away since Aug Dmr debut win.

NY-bred with all sprint genes.

No factor in 2 west coast MSWs. Top genes; hasn’t delivered yet.

Springboard Mile winner to OP. Kee 9F-T winner gets GP dirt try.

Rachel’s ½-bro can play at FG. Remsen 5th bred to handle trip.

Excuse Bob Hope troubled start.

Wagon filled post-Nov MSW win.

Dr. Fager champ out since Sept. ½ to Indianapolis fast, how far?

Leading west coast grass 2YO. Strikes me as a win-early juvy.

Spa debut winner back on Fl tab.

Stakes rise tripped up Floridian.

Irish colt o/o BC Distaff champ.

Royally bred; back on Pmm tab.

Sharp 2YO danced the big ones.

Tyro winner failed in 2 longer.

Upset Damon Runyon vs. NYBs. Out since Del debut 2nd in July.

Del route MSW winner at Pmm. Strong stakes type for early ’16.

Bodemeister’s ½ bro went int’l.

NY-bred stakes colt now at FG. Hard-trying Lrl stakes gelding.

Remsen 2nd leads Aqu winter lot.

Arlington bridesmaid sidelined.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

29

FOREVAMO FORMAL SUMMATION FOUND MONEY FRANCESCO BLUE FRANK CONVERSATION FREEDOM TOWER FRENCH GETAWAY FRONT LINE PAIGE FULL SALUTE GEHRIG GENERAL MACARTHUR GET JETS GETTYSBURG GIFT BOX GIO'S CALLING GOOD FOR IT GOOD GENES GOTSOMEJOJO GOVERNOR MALIBU GRAY SKY GREATEST GAME GREENPOINTCRUSADER GUN RUNNER HAMMERS VISION HAND OF POWER HARLAN PUNCH HE'S A TIGER HE'S COMIN IN HOT HIGHLAND SKY HINT OF ROSES HIT IT A BOMB HOFFENHEIM HOLDING GOLD HOLLYWOOD DON HOLLYWOOD HIDEAWAY HUNTER O'RILEY

175 225 125 250 350 250 250 250 250 200 125 225 35 225 250 275 275 225 200 200 30 50 250 200 85 300 300 300 125 100 150 300 300 250 250

Stall Jr. O'Connell O'Neill Pilotti O'Neill L. Rice Hess Proctor Plesa Jr Levine O'Brien Dutrow Pletcher Brown Lynch Sise Jr Gold Clement Lukas Casse Schettino Asmusen Lynch Wilkes Amoss Bonde Calhoun Tagg Maker O’Brien Baffert Casse Miller Minshall Sharp

Uncle Mo ** In Summation ** Square Eddie **** Leroidesanimaux ** Quality Road ** Broken Vow * Giant’s Causeway *** Proud Citizen * Speightstown ** Ghostzapper ** War Front ** Scat Daddy ** Pioneerof the Nile ** Twirling Candy ***** Gio Ponti ** Neko Bay * Awesome of Course ** Malibu Moon Tapit

*** *** Giant's Causeway **** Bernardini ***** Candy Ride ***** Court Vision *** Candy Ride ** Harlan's Holiday *** Sky Mesa * Early Flyer ** Sky Mesa *** Tapit ** War Front *** Midnight Lute ** Lonhro * Tapit *** Zensational ** Tiz Wonderful ***

Jean Lafitte champ slop-aided?

Good 2nd vs beast at Tam; sprint.

On cusp on division’s top; watch.

Summer SW back on Dec tab.

Appears better-suited for turf.

Working toward debut in NY. Run-all-day, bested SA routers.

Out since KD MSW win; turf dam.

Sprint future likely for sharpie.

Fast NYB ??? distance damside.

Son of Coolmore star Imagine.

NYB SW still route untested.

Improved w/ move to GP in Dec. Remsen 3rd may be barn’s best.

Knocking on turf MSW door. th 4 start Lrc MSW win sprinting. ½ Awesome Feather back in Fl. Progressive NYB worth a look.

CD MSW winner eyes Oaklawn. ½ Stormello showed WO game.

Mud freak/BC dud? Love genes.

Visually never comfy in CD mud.

Summer form in NY promising.

Has improved for patient barn.

DeD Jackpot 3rd fits at FG winter.

2-2 as juvy in NoCal; sprinter.

TX-bred a hot early 2YO; peak?

Well-bred turfer handles routes.

Dam ½ Kitten’s Joy; dull MSWs. Brilliant BC Juvy Turf rally; dirt?

Knocking on SoCal MSW door.

Out since Sar Special flat effort.

Expected more in Lrc Futurity.

Woodbine SW didn’t develop.

Never fired when 7th in Remsen.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

30

IFYOUSNOOZEYOULOSE I'MALREADYTHERE INHIBITION INTENSITY IRISH ISHAQ ISOTHERM IT'S THE JOURNEY I WILL SCORE JAN’S RESERVE JEEZUM JIM JES JAA JOHN Q. PUBLIC JR'S HOLIDAY** JURY JUSTIN SQUARED KASSEOPIA KING KRANZ KIOSK'S CAUSE KLINGON WARRIOR KNIGHTS KEY LANGARA LET ME GO FIRST LETITHAPPEN LET'S MEET IN RIO LEWIS BAY (F) LIFE IMITATES ART LOOK ME IN THE EYE LUCKY BRYAN LUCKY LURIE LUCKY RAMSEY LUNA DE LOCO MAC DADDY MAC MACH ONE RULES MAGNA LIGHT MAJESTIC SLEW

200 125 250 175 225 75 175 300 75 400 250 275 250 275 100 125 225 350 175 75 300 300 250 200 250 300 275 250 150 125 100 250 300 250

Maker Hollendorfer Cassidy Brown Dollase Loza Weaver Trombetta Hollendorfer Dilger Capuano Sadler Lukas Garoffalo Hollendorfer Baffert Fellowes Terranova Hamm Demasi Hobby Schnell B. Servis Bonde Baffert Brown Brown Puype Barba Hennig Maker Asmussen Ritvo Lucarelli R. Rodriguez De Paulo

Wilburn Crown of Thorns Street Sense Eskendereya Paddy O'Prado Harlan’s Holiday Lonhro Mineshaft Roman Ruler Ready’s Image Fairbanks Big Drama Proud Citizen Harlan's Holiday Tale of the Cat Zensational Showcasing Munnings Noble Causeway First Dude

* Didn’t show enough in 4 MSWs. *** Consistent stakes knocker tries. * Split field in debut; good genes. ** Turf route debut win at Aqu. * Away since Dmr summer MSWs. **** Dam full to Smarty Jones; talent. *** Sharp turfer gets a Fla dirt try. * MD-bred looks like 1-turn best. *** Working well SA since Lrc score. ** Smoked Aqu 6F stakes in Nov. * Away since Sept Del stakes 3rd. * Even efforts in 2 MSWs so far. ** Versatile early 2yo out since KD.

** Likely better than Bob Hope bid. *** Out since fleet Dmr debut win. *** Imported Grey 3rd now at Pmm. *** G2 Futurity 2nd needs breakthru. * Ohio-bred SW away since Aug. * Out since Prx July debut win.

Giant's Causeway **** Route pedigree player at OP. Langfuhr * 2-time SW in western Canada.

Paddy o' Prado ** Parx grad gets shot in Jerome.

Mizzen Mast ** Back on tab post-solid Dmr tries.

Flatter *** Juddmonte improving router.

Bernardini ** Demoiselle winner Oaks-aimed.

More Than Ready *** Looks like big-time turf miler.

Marino Marini * Cal-bred sprinter out since Aug. Lookin At Lucky *** Solid turf router; dirt hurdle?

Girolamo ** NY-bred talented, but sprints.

Lookin At Lucky **** Ramsey’s best shot on dirt in FL. Malibu Moon *** Aqu MSW grad moves to FG. Put It Back ** Sprint stakes future, but route?

Harbor the Gold * Unbeaten king of Emerald, 4-4.

Magna Graduate ** Sar star fizzled into the fall.

Majestic Warrior ** Swynford 3rd hasn’t advanced.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

32

MAJESTO MANA STRIKE MANHATTAN DAN MANIPULATED MARKET RALLY MARQULA MARSHALL EDDY MASTER MICK MATT KING COAL MAYOR MAC MEMORIES OF WINTER METAL MAGIC MIDNIGHT EDITION MINER'S LIGHT MISSLE BOMB MO FOR THE MONEY MO POWER MO TOM MOHAYMEN MOR SPIRIT MORNING FIRE MORSE CODE MOUNTAIN MUSIC MAN MR. GAME RACING MR COKER MR HUNGRY MRAZEK MT VEEDER NAVY HYMN NEOLITHIC NEVER GONE SOUTH NIGHTLY NEWS NIIGON'S EDGE NOBLE THOUGHT NO DISTORTION NO HOLDS BARRED

225 275 300 250 125 350 300 350 60 125 225 275 150 125 250 250 85 12 12 300 150 300 250 125 125 150 75 200 125 500 250 350

Delgado Tiznow ** Route-bred set to get MSW soon.

Lucarelli Papa Clem *** Gold Rush winner tops NoCalers.

Contessa Big Brown *** Versatile, fits w/ NYRA winter.

Jerkens Malibu Moon ** NYB sprint ability, but distance?

Catalano Unbridled's Song ** Aug Mth debut winner out since.

Bonde Coast Guard ** NoCal stakes-placed; step up?

Nihei City Zip * Decent pedigree; 0-3 in MSWs. Feliciano Two Step Salsa * Out since Aug Ohio-bred SW. L. Rice Cool Coal Man *** Improving; factors Aqu winter.

G. Foley Discreetly Mine * Away since CD June debut win.

Margotta Jr Hard Spun ** Must improve off Delta fade.

Kenneally Yes It's True * Sprinter doesn’t forecast long.

Baffert Midnight Lute * Cal-bred MCL grad long way off.

Gaines Mineshaft *** Like pedigree; maiden to watch.

D. Miller Tale of the Cat ** Stakes-place maiden not far off.

Dutrow Uncle Mo ** Speedster may fit NYRA winter.

Pletcher Amoss Uncle Mo **** FG factor; better at 1 turn?

McLaughlin Tapit ***** New York’s top 2YO of 2015.

Baffert Eskendereya ***** Could be west’s top TC prospect.

Nations Friesan Fire ** PA top sprinter may’ve peaked.

McGaughey Tapit **** Honor Code bro 1 to watch GP. Pletcher Bluegrass Cat *** Solid turfer; Spiral contender.

Hollendorfer Domenosky O'Neill Baffert O'Neill Pletcher C. Lynch Baffert S. Simon Stidham L. Jones Chleborad

Candy Ride Stroll Square Eddie Ghostzapper Songandaprayer Harlan's Holiday Munnings Misremembered Niigon Harlan's Holirday Distorted Humor Hold Me Back

** ** ** *** * *** ** ** * ** ** *

2nd-best in sharp 12/26 SA MSW. May foal romped Haw MSWs. Star summer Cal-bred out since.

Expect rebound off FrontRunner.

Dropped to MCL before vacation.

Beat decent cast GP Dec MSW. Sharp Mid-Atlantic sprinter only.

Gelding didn’t progress MSWs. Off board in 2 WO stakes bids.

Solid FG MSW win from 11-hole. ½ Proud Spell battling MSWs FG. IA-bred out since Aug; OP tests.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

33

NYQUIST ON FIRE ONE LEGEND ONEPOINTTWENTYONE OSSETRA OUR RAPIDASH OUR TRACK PARATROOPER PASCHAL PATRICK'S DAY PATTON PROUD PAYNES PRAIRIE PENSADOR PERFECT SAINT PINNACLE PEAK PIRELLONE PLAYWRIGHT PORTFOLIO MANAGER PROSPECTUS QUANTUM FORCE QUIJOTE R DUB RACHEL'S VALENTINA (F) RAFTING RALIS RARE CANDY RATED R SUPERSTAR RAPPEL RALLY CRY RAVENHEART RAY'S THE BAR RED HOT WARRIOR REALM RICHIE THE BULL RIDDLER RIKER

15 300 200 275 275 350 175 250 175 300 200 175 300 250 150 225 150 250 125 400 125 100 125 125 175 350 125 250 300 150 250 200 150

O'Neill Callaghan McPeek Pecoraro Baffert

Uncle Mo ***** Formidable foe passed BC test.

Friesan Fire ** Sire seems win-early & fizzle.

Hard Spun *** Kee turf route ALW winner.

E Dubai ** Del sprint SW away since Sept.

Into Mischief *** Like the genes for Lrc ALW 2nd.

Delahoussaye Half Ours * La-bred SW tailed off late year.

Sims Curlin ** Ky MSW router needs hot pace.

Potts U S Ranger * May foal out since June PID win.

Romans Curlin ** Pedigree decent but flat at CD. Pletcher Harlan's Holiday ** Inconsistent; long turf damside.

Asmussen Eskendereya *** Fits well at FG off solid Ky tries.

Pender Tale of Ekati ** Well-traveled stakes sprinter.

Bravo Einstein * MN-bred out since Cby summer.

Pleasantly Perfect *** Midpack slop in KJC; like genes.

Romans Stidham Yes It’s True *** Wired good FG ALW mid-Dec. Nicks Gio Ponte *** Bel MSW winner cut back at GP. Mott Super Saver ** NYB with strong female family.

Brown Harlan's Holiday *** Champagne 3rd needs mdn tally.

Pletcher Uncle Mo ** Late year GP debut win, ALW 3rd.

Brocklebank Papa Clem * CA-bred out since July Lrc score.

Amoss Pomeroy * FG debut win 12/27; sprinter.

Gleason Fort Prado * 2x Arapahoe SW out since Aug. Pletcher Bernardini ** Fillies must be legendary for TC. Motion Tapit ***** GP SW o/o top Canadian family.

O’Neill Square Eddie *** Hopeful seems fluky in review.

Hofmans Twirling Candy *** Steady sort for SA 3YO series.

McPeek Kodiak Kowboy ** Pedigree, late season fade ?s.

Ribaudo Elusive Quality ** Fair Bel turf tries; no dirt genes.

Pletcher Uncle Mo *** Topped tough 12/26 GP MSW. Dance With Ravens Abbott ** Lrl SW overmatched in Remsen.

Brown Exceed And Excel ** Better than BCJT, but not on dirt.

Amoss War Front * Tdn grad out since KD Fut dud.

Tagg Haynesfield ** Sidelined since Spa debut win.

Rivelli Benny The Bull ** Speedy IL-bred distance limited.

Pletcher Harlan's Holiday ** 12/24 tab return; CD spring 3rd.

N. Gonzalez Include *** 6th after setting pace in BC Juvy.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

34

RIVER DELL ROCKIN BAYOU RUCK RUTH LESS BLUE SAIL AHOY SALLISAW SAMICEAN SARATOGA MISCHIEF SAWYERS MICKEY SEA WIZARD SEAT OF HONOR SECRET PASSAGE SEMPER FORTIS SEND ME SEYMOURDINI SHAGAF SHAKHIMAT SHARP AZTECA SHEIKH OF SHEIKHS SHIP ROCK SHORE LEAVE SHOW BOUND SHUT THE BOX SIDING SPRING SILVERTOWN SITE READ SKY MARSHAL SMART MOON SMOKEY IMAGE SOMBREE SORRYABOUTNOTHING SPIKES SHIRL SPLIT STAGEPLAY STANZ IN COMMAND STAR HILL

150 225 350 500 45 175 200 250 300 200 200 250 175 200 50 45 175 225 175 400 200 175 275 300 200 250 300 300 125 275 150 250 175 300 250

Albertrani Mullins Baker Fairlie McGaughey McLaughlin McPeek Pletcher Asmussen Mazza McGaughey Von Hemel O'Neill

Arch Forefathers Lookin At Lucky Giant Gizmo Bernardini Exchange Rate Medicean Into Mischief Flatter Uncle Mo Tapit Curlin Distorted Humor Hold Me Back Rice Bernardini Brown Bernardini Attfield Lonhro Navarro Freud Ward Discreetly Mine Calhoun Indygo Mountain McGaughey Flatter Asmussen Warrior's Reward P. Miller Hard Spun Casse Warrior's Reward Kenneally Speightstown Mott Tizdejavu Minshall Sky Mesa Casse Malibu Moon James Southern Image Reed Eskendereya O'Neill Repent Stewart Speightstown Motion Speightstown Asmussen Curlin C. Miller Second in Command Arnold Elusive Quality

** ** * ** ***** ** * *** * ** *** **** **** * *** **** *** * *** * * ** * *** ** ** ** * *** * ** *** * ** * *

Nashua 4th from sprint damside.

Dmr Fut 4th all sprint pedigree.

Router failed in 2 WO stakes.

Solid WO SW for Queen’s Plate.

Pine Island/Point of Entry bro.

May fit with NYRA winter group.

German turfer didn’t fire at Kee. Sar Special 3rd; tab return in Dec. OH-bred didn’t deliver at CD. Bel MSW 2nd back on GP tab.

Improving; from regal damside.

Serious threat at OP to beware.

Carpe Diem bro improved lately.

Training at Bel toward debut.

Romping Aqu mile; sprint dam.

Bigtime debut at Aqu & genes.

Arguably fav for Queen’s Plate.

GP MSW debut 2nd in Dec to Zulu.

Fast Kee SW looks like sprinter.

TX-bred out since May score. ½ to Orb yet to hit worktab.

Stakes-place mdn out since Sept.

Didn’t deliver much in 2 MSWs. Bourbon 3rd no match in BC Juvy.

String of MSW misses; now in FL. Most likely turfer could eye TP. Summer S. 2nd outmatched BCJT. Sidelined post-Kee trouble ALW. 4x CA-bred SW gets open shot.

Mnr JFilly champ out since Sept.

Win-early genes; outrun Lrc Fut. Clear 2nd FG ALW mile 12/28.

Dropped in for tag late year.

A top filly on FG Oaks scene.

2x SW in British Columbia.

Back working Pmm; Iroquois 6th.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

36

STICKSSTATELYDUDE STORMATION STRADIVARI STREET VISION SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS SUDDEN SURPRISE SUNNY RIDGE SPEZIA SWAGGER JAGGER SWIPE SYNCHRONY TALE OF S'AVALL TAP TO IT (F) TASIT THE ZIP ZIP MAN TIZ LOVE TIZNOBLE TIZZARUNNER TOEWS ON ICE TOM'S READY TOO DISCREET TORRONTES TROJAN NATION TRUE BRILLIANCE TURULU TUSK TWIRLING CINNAMON ULTRAFLAME UNBRIDLED DADDY UNBRIDLED OUTLAW UNCLE BRENNIE UNCLE LINO UNCLE WALTER UNEXPLAINED URLACHER VIEWINGTHEGOLD

100 225 175 200 175 225 75 300 250 20 85 60 175 200 250 300 175 25 225 225 225 250 125 250 250 300 175 85 200 125 150 150 150 300

Burchell Diodoro Pletcher Glatt Von Hemel Pletcher Jason Servis Whiting Maker Desormeaux Von Hemel Tagg Nicks Matz Stidham Harrington Sharp Casse Baffert Stewart Clement Gorder Gallagher Diodoro V. Garcia Motion Cox Ross Pletcher Romans Cox Sherlock Maker Richard Harty Navarro

First Dude Stormy Atlantic Medaglia d'Oro Street Sense Mineshaft Giant Surprise Holy Bull Speightstown Crown of Thorns Birdstone Tapit Tale of Ekati Tapit Tapit City Zip Slew's Tiznow Tiznow Tizway ArchArchArch More Than Ready Discreet Cat Macho Uno Street Cry Unusual Heat Eskendereya Tapit Twirling Candy Old Forester Scat Daddy Unbridled's Song Uncle Mo Uncle Mo Uncle Mo Ghostzapper Discreet Cat Harbor The Gold

** ** **** ** *** *** **** ** *** ***** **** *** * *** ** * *** *** *** **** ** ** ** * ** *** ** * ** **** ** ** **** **** *** *

Tendon injury before BC Juvy.

Cby/Prm SW away since Sept.

GP romper o/o Bending Strings.

Speakeasy 2nd has route ?s.

Solid player for Oaklawn series.

Ran roughshod vs. NYBs; open?

NJ-bred 2nd Champagne, Jackpot.

Sprinter needs an OP breakout.

Finding home on turf; improved.

Showed all the tools at age 2.

Dig genes/resume; barn loaded.

Out since Champagne 5th; talent.

Spinaway 2nd a big reach here.

Lrl MSW grad w/ upside; Fla bid.

Colin 2nd out since fall; dirt?

Won Dmr CA-bred dash in Aug. FG ALW win 12/28 going 1M. Rock-solid in WO stakes; Fla bid.

Distance legit concern, but fast.

Fits among tops at FG this meet.

Out since 2 Sar NYB scores.

Wired FG route MSW 12/28.

Not delivering on pedigree yet.

CA-bred; nice sprint return bid.

Away since June debut SA win.

Inconsistent turfer w/ ability.

Sugar Bowl 2nd; better shorter?

No match Ami’s Gizmo; sprints.

Turf performer out since Kee. Lots of steam behind this one.

Inconsistent sort must improve.

Dmr fall MSW victor; sprint dam.

Strong 2nd Synchrony at CD. OP sleeper off good CD 2nd.

Maiden distance 4th Lrc Futurity.

WA-bred stakes placed at Emd.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

37

VINCENTO VORTICITY WAR ORDER WHEELS UP NOW WHILE YE MAY WHITMORE WHO'S OUT WILD MAN WINNING ROAD ZAPPERINI ZERO HOUR ZICONIC (pictured) Z ROYAL ZULU

400 150 250 200 250 250 125 250 275 225 250 150 100 85

R. Rodriguez Include Lawrence Distorted Humor Motion War Front Albertrani Smart Strike Kobiskie Pioneerof the Nile Moquett Pleasantly Perfect Hollendorfer Tale of Ekati Asmussen Pulpit Dilger Quality Road G. Foley Ghostzapper Casse Bernardini Shirreffs Tapit Lukas Eskendereya Pletcher Bernardini

** Solid NYB route closer for Aqu. ** Bred superbly for sprint stakes. ** Turf underachiver w/ trouble. nd ** 2 -best in tough 12/26 GP MSW. ** Nov GP dash debut winner. **** OP player; Jackpot was 2nd start. ** Demolished Dmr MSWs in Aug. *** Lightbulb coming on; FG threat. * Lrl MSW 2nd after NYRA drop. *** CD debut 2nd maybe FG sleeper. ** Disappointed in Saratoga debut. ** Zenyatta baby modest SA drills. *** Got fast pace aid at CD; OP next. **** Great genes; spot-on Dec debut.

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

We’re Waiting For You!

By Jeremy Plonk Admit it – you think you can take down the handicapping pros. If you didn’t, you wouldn’t be in the parimutuel pools. One of the many beauties of playing the races is that our self perceptions drive us all.

In the coming weeks, you’ll get the chance to take me down, as well as 9 other well-known racing handicappers in Xpressbet’s wildly popular and annual Beat the Host competition. I’m honored to bat leadoff for the second straight year, and you can match wits against me on Saturday, Jan. 2 simply by opening an account or having an existing account.

Beat the Host is a weekly competition (Saturdays in January and February) in which players are challenged to top the host’s cumulative mutuel total in eight mandatory races. Please visit http://xpressbet.com/BeattheHost

38

for a complete explanation of how the tournament works and to view additional Xpressbet tournaments— Live and Showdown.

Here is the 2015 Beat the Host schedule of hosts:

?

Jan 2 Jan 9 Jan 16 Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27

Jeremy Plonk Jeff Siegel Jon White Steve Byk Brian Nadeau Brad Free Tom Quigley Eddie Olcyzk Johnny D

HP NOW XBTV SA SiriusXM HP NOW DRF SA/Lrc NBC Sports Xpressbet

The weekly mandatory races are a split of events from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, typically 4 each or a 3-5 division some weeks.

“Beat the Host is a fantastic entry level tournament, as well as a springboard to a big-money event like Xpressbet’s $100,000 Showdown which is very attractive

to experienced players,” said John DeSantis, senior VP / editor at Xpressbet. “The weekly Saturday format provides players with opportunities to whip the host and to qualify for the championship round. There’s also $2,500 in weekly cash up for grabs.”

Tip For Beating the Pros The public has a big advantage in that the hosts’ picks are published in advance and you can play off of those and counter the hosts’ moves. For instance, if the host picks a likely $3 horse that’s a heavy favorite, you can swing for something big in that race and feel as though the worst you can do is fall $3 behind. When we take a big price swing, you can feel more comfortable playing a favorite and taking the incremental edge moving ahead. Zig when we zag.

39



The $5,000 Sweep the Host Bonus is awarded to any single player who exceeds the host’s cumulative mutuel total in each of all eight weeks of the Qualifying Round. 



Cash prizes awarded to top 10 finishers based on total mutuel payoffs:    

Weekly prizes awarded to top 3 finishers based on total mutuel payoffs on the $5 win wagers:



 

1st - $1,500 2nd - $750 3rd - $250

If no player wins the Bonus, a $2,000 consolation prize will be awarded to the player who is the last to lose to the host in weekly competition.

Players can win multiple weekly prizes.

Prizes: Championship Round

Prizes: Qualifying Round



Also any player that Beats the Host qualifies for the Beat the Host Championship Round.



1st - $5,000 2nd - $4,000 3rd - $3,000 4th - $1,000 5th - 10th - $500 Top thirty (30) finishers in the Championship Round based on cumulative mutuel payoffs earn complimentary seats to the Xpressbet Showdown Tournament ($300 value each).

40

We love to talk about trainers and jockeys who have been there and done that when picking our Triple Crown horses. But the vast majority of the series’ races since the new millennium have been won by the inexperienced. For every Bob Baffert or Gary Stevens, there are three names closer to Michael Matz or Jeremy Rose.

By Jeremy Plonk The people behind the Triple Crown performers make for lovely television, colorizing the storylines and offering a voyeurs’ peek into the lifestyles of the rich and famous.

Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Consider the 16 Kentucky Derbywinning trainers from 2000-’15 and their previous records in the race.

You’ll quickly see how ‘experience’ has been overrated in Louisville:

Trainer Neil Drysdale John Ward Bob Baffert Barclay Tagg John Servis John Shirreffs Michael Matz Carl Nafzger Rick Dutrow Chip Woolley Todd Pletcher Graham Motion Doug O’Neill Shug McGaughey Art Sherman Bob Baffert

Starts: 1st-2nd-3rd 0: 0-0-0 2: 0-0-0 11: 2-1-2 0: 0-0-0 0: 0-0-0 0: 0-0-0 0: 0-0-0 2: 1-0-0 0: 0-0-0 0: 0-0-0 24: 0-2-1 2: 0-0-0 2: 0-0-0 6: 0-1-1 0: 0-0-0 24: 3-3-2

The facts show that 12 of the last 16 Kentucky Derby-winning trainers had 2 or fewer previous attempts at the roses before gaining victory. Eight of those won in their Louisville debuts.

And of those trainers since 2000 who had Derby dreams realized, few, if any, can say that their stable profile has improved in any measure since. Winning the Kentucky Derby may do wonderful things for self-esteem, but it doesn’t insure any upswing in the career arc of a trainer.

Neil Drysdale went into the Hall of Fame the summer of Fusaichi Pegasus’ Derby score, but he hasn’t come within 75 percent of his earnings total of 2000 since.

After a spike in starters in 2001, Drysdale’s number of entries within 2 years already had fallen below his 2000 season totals.

In the 12 years before Funny Cide (pictured), Barclay Tagg averaged 247 starters per year. The dozen seasons since have seen the barn average 249 annual starters. Twice

41

he topped his 2003 earnings total (2007 and 2008), and he has trained 5 Grade 1 winners since that time (the last of which was Jersey Town in 2010) compared to just 2 in the dozen years before Funny Cide. So while Tagg did see some bump in the years after his Derby win, it was not sustained.

A year later, John Servis followed suit with Smarty Jones in the Derby and Preakness. Likeable, wellpresented and with seemingly nothing but upside, it was fair to expect his horse of a lifetime to change Servis’ career. But after finishing 4th in the nation in earnings in 2004 behind Smarty Jones, Servis didn’t crack the top 100 again until 2010 when finishing 71st, still the best he’s mustered since. He hasn’t won a graded stakes since Rockport Harbor and Round Pond in 2006 at Oaklawn. Servis did pick up high-caliber client Fox Hill Farm after the success of Smarty Jones, but it was fleeting for only a bit and Round Pond would be sent to Michael Matz before realizing Breeders’ Cup Distaff glory in the autumn of ’06.

42

Of course, the big reason Matz was attractive in 2006 was the Kentucky Derby run by his lifetime horse, Barbaro (pictured). Here again you had a reputable horseman with Olympic medals in his equestrian background and a hero’s story told worldwide during the ’06 Triple Crown. If ever a career was about to take off, it was Matz. To that point, his only G1 winner trained was Kicken Kris, who tallied the ’03 Secretariat and ’04 Arlington Million. Matz would pick up Round Pond from Servis, add the ’08 King’s Bishop with Visionaire and then get his second star horse in ’11-’12 with Union Rags, winner of the G1 Champagne and G1 Belmont Stakes. Since then, however, he hasn’t come close to the Triple Crown and turf females Hard Not To Like and Somali Lemonade have been his only G1 winners. He hasn’t reached higher than 42nd nationally in earnings since Barbaro and Round Pond took him to No. 16 in 2006.

His stable earnings in 2015 were barely more than one-quarter of what they were in his career year.

John Shirreffs tasted his first Triple Crown success with 50-1 stunner Giacomo in 2005 and hasn’t been strongly in the mix since. Stable staples, owners Jerry and Ann Moss, of course, did deliver homebred Zenyatta to Shirreffs and she left an indelible mark on racing and the barn. But there hasn’t been an influx of new owners for Shirreffs because of Giacomo – or even Zenyatta for that matter.

Noted turf trainer Graham Motion not only pulled a surface switch successfully for Animal Kingdom in 2011, but also for his career. The Englishmen had a superb reputation on grass, but his success with Animal Kingdom opened the eyes of his followers that he could train successes at any level. Animal Kingdom would go on to win the Dubai World Cup on synthetic. But Motion’s Triple Crown presence since has been nearly non-existent and his halfdozen G1 victories in America since the ’11 Derby all have come on the turf. Motion’s career arc certainly has not dropped since winning the

43

Derby, witnessed by a $10 million season in 2014 and another strong showing in 2015 pushing the $8 million mark. But he hasn’t become a household name on the trail overnight either.

boasted 300-400 starters per year hasn’t gotten into triple digits for starters in the past 3 years. Chip Wooley hasn’t been heard from since Mine That Bird was moved to D. Wayne Lukas.

Doug O’Neill experienced stardom with I’ll Have Another in the 2012 Derby and Preakness. His stable earned $7.8 million that season, and a year later needed nearly 300 more starts to net $7.5 million. His 2014 tally dropped all the way to $4.4 million before a superior crop of 2-year-olds re-raised his profile in 2015 and has O’Neill looking like a major player again after topping the $7 million mark. But his top owner remains J. Paul Reddam of I’ll Have Another fame, so again it is arguable that O’Neill’s Crown success has not relaunched him.

Jockeys are no different. Triple Crown race winners like Jeremy Rose (pictured), Stewart Elliott, Jesus Castanon, Jose Valdivia and Mario Gutierrez haven’t automatically seen their fortunes skyrocket. Most drifted back to where they came from in terms of locales and achievements.

Calvin Borel’s amazing Kentucky Derby run gave him a short-term boost, but didn’t set a national hysteria in terms of live mounts.

Art Sherman’s stable remained simply as California Chrome came and went in 2015 with no notable uptick after his lifetime horse nearly won the Triple Crown a season prior. Guys like Tim Ritchey of Afleet Alex fame in 2005 know all too well how that goes. He hasn’t won a G1 stakes since the Belmont score by Afleet Alex, and Ritchey’s barn that once regularly

The big horse truly is about the big horse. He or she doesn’t have to come from a Triple Crown-winning outfit, and he or she certainly won’t change the fortunes of said outfit for decades to come. Success on the Triple Crown trail and series can be fleeting – enjoy it while it lasts, and remember to focus on the horse, of course. – HPN

44

It’s not that often you hear the Kentucky Derby and the NCAA Tournament get mentioned in the same sentence, but similarities undoubtedly exist. Each year hundreds of Thoroughbreds embark on a path that will land 20 of them in the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the biggest horse race in the world. Around the same time, some 300 college basketball teams will do the same, navigating through a schedule that will land 68 of them in the Big Dance, where they will funnel down to one national champion over the course of three weeks.

The Derby field is open to any able and willing 3-year-old that has

amassed enough points over the course of his (or her) career to make the final cut of 20 that will meet the starter. They come from any and all corners of the country (and sometimes the world) and their stories and how they got there are as scrutinized as their past performances will be in the days leading up to the first Saturday in May. The field for the NCAA Tournament is eerily similar, as that rank outsider can go on a tear and win its conference tournament—regular season record be damned—and qualify, much like that giant longshot can step up and run 2nd in a G1 race in April and

earn enough Derby qualifying points.

The Derby 20, like a good basketball team, can come from anywhere, and have any kind of individual makeup. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at a few 3-year-olds that are high on my list and both on (and under) the national radar and could wind up making a big basket at Churchill Downs.

The All-American: If you want to cut the nets down in April you need a lot of pieces, but undoubtedly you need that All-American, that star player that you can rely on to get you a big basket when it’s crunch time. My All-American this year is GREENPOINTCRUSADER (pictured), who rose to the top of the ranks of the New York 2YOs last year with a dominant win in the G1 Champagne at Belmont Park in October. Things didn’t go as swimmingly when he was 7th in the BC Juvenile at Keeneland, but he had a rough trip that day and

45

emerged with an eye injury, so you can be a bit forgiving. As a son of Bernardini out of a Cryptoclearance mare, he’s bred to run all day, and his stalking style is the type you want in a Derby horse. Trainer Dominick Schettino is a relative newcomer to the Triple Crown Trail (he's had a few bombs in the Belmont and Preakness), but we’ve seen time and again over the past several years that experience is a overrated when it comes to training a Kentucky Derby winner.

GREENPOINTCRUSADER showed at 2 he’s an immense talent, and I fully expect him to build on that 2YO foundation when he pops up in Florida this winter.

The Rising Star: Each and every year we see a player put a team on his back and will them to win, and often times it’s a player that has hinted at high promise throughout their career and finally puts it all together in March. The path to the Kentucky Derby is no different, as it’s all about getting hot at the right time, and this year’s Rising Star is GIFT BOX, who made some big waves when he broke his maiden in his second start at Belmont in the slop in October then was a good 3rd in a very good renewal of Aqueduct’s G2 Remsen in November. That effort smelled a bit like “too much, too soon,” but to be fair, where else was Chad Brown supposed to run him? And it’s not like he was embarrassed by the unbeaten winner MOHAYMEN, who everyone has in their top-3 (at worst) at this point. Sure, a son of Twirling Candy out of an Unbridled’s Song mare isn’t exactly bred to relish 10 panels, but we’ve seen the miler types win countless Derbies and whenever you run 1 1/8 miles as a 2YO, it’s a great foundation builder. GIFT BOX showed high promise at 2, looks

46

like the type that can use his tactical speed to get any kind of trip, and should be a major player in Florida or New Orleans, depending where Brown decides to start him.

The Blueblood: This is often the most frustrating type of player and horse, because they are the type who are bred to be a star, but often have trouble putting it all together. Basically, you know it’s in there; it’s just a matter of if—or when—it’s going to come out. With this year’s Blue Blood—MORSE CODE—it’s not “if,” but “when,” as he looked eerily similar to older half-brother Honor Code when he closed from the clouds to be 2nd in his debut at Aqueduct in November for trainer Shug McGaughey (pictured). If you followed me in this space and in others, you know

I was never a big Honor Code fan, but he won me over by the time he called it a career, so even though mom Serena’s Tune wasn’t a twoturn horse, dad Tapit is showing he can get any type of runner, and when the distances stretch out and the rubber bands of all these precocious, distance-challenged 3YOs start to get mighty thin, this colt will be rolling late for McGaughey, just like Honor Code did. MORSE CODE is at Payson Park in Florida working towards his second career start, where you have to think he’ll be odds-on to break his maiden and announce his presence on the national scene and load up his bandwagon.

The Freshman Sensation: This is probably the category where hoops and horses differ, because we see a lot more Carmelo Anthonys and Jahlil Okafors than we do Favorite Tricks, Yonaguskas and Shaghai Bobbys; you know, the type of horse that is just superior to his rivals early in their 2YO season, but has no real edge when their rivals grow up and become bigger and tougher 3yos.

So, take this year’s Freshman

47

Sensation with a grain of salt, but I was really impressed with GUN RUNNER’S two wins to start his career, especially his Keeneland allowance win (pictured), when he showed plenty of polish to shut off early, split horses off the far turn and win for fun.

Yes, he didn’t do much running when he was a meek 4th in Churchill’s G2 Kentucky Jockey Club to close out his season, but that race was run over a mess of a track and I’m willing to forgive the effort. He’s by Candy Ride (ARG) out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and Steve Asmussen and owner Ron Winchell have had a lot of success on the Triple Crown trail in recent years, so he should be a major player in New Orleans this

winter. GUN RUNNER isn’t like the typical aforementioned Freshman Sensations, in that he really didn’t win anything too important, but he showed enough at 2 to be considered a horse to follow this winter.

The Project: Every team has a project, and they can be the type that really tests your patience time and again, since they will give you a glimpse of talent, then just as quickly take it away and leave you scratching your head. In basketball, the Project is typically that 7-footer who takes about 17 seconds to get over half-court, but when he establishes himself down low in the post, he’s impossible to move and defend. In racing, the Project is that gawky, oversized 2YO that has trouble getting out of his own way and who has yet to grow into his body and wants nothing to do with oneturn, sprint races. This year’s Project is DIRECT MESSAGE, a big, burly son of Bernardini out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Tweeter,

48

who is a half-sister to multiple G1 winners Bird Town and Birdstone.

The Godolphin homebred gave— when he broke slow, made a rush up into contention inside, threatened the leaders then tired to be 4th in a debut you know he needed going 7F’s in his debut at Saratoga in September—then took away—when he was a complete no-show 4th, beaten over 20 lengths by Gift Box in that colt’s maiden breaker. So obviously Tom Albertrani (pictured) has his work cut out for him to get the best out of this colt, but he’s bred to be a serious horse, showed he’s got talent in his debut, and should start to get all the best of it when he makes his next start at Gulfstream, presumably going long around two turns (he was entered as an MTO there 12/19 but scratched).

The Do-Everything: This type of player is often unheralded and rarely gets any attention, but they are the types you need to have a successful team, because they can really do a lot of different things

well, like guard the opposition’s best player, hit a clutch 3, run the point when your top guard is in foul trouble, get a bucket down low; basically, all the little things.

The Do-Everything racehorse is made up of more optimism than anything else at this time of the year, because I’m hoping that both GIO’S CALLING and COCO IS LOCO can take their turf form and transfer it to the main track. The former, a son of turf star Gio Ponti out of a Family Calling mare, is bred for the grass, but the way he’s closed in both turf runs says he’d be suited for a fast-paced dirt route, and there’s little concern about him going long either. Plus, with Dynaformer on the bottom of his pedigree, it’s not out of the question that he can handle the main track. Brian Lynch knows what to do with a good horse and anyone with a talented 3YO in their barn automatically thinks “Can he dirt?” so I would expect he gets a main track try at some point at Gulfstream this winter. COCO IS LOCO, a son of Macho Uno out of an Indian Charlie mare, blew me away with his wide, sustained run

49

to the lead en route to an easy debut win over the grass at Aqueduct in November. Yes, I know it was over New York breds, but this isn’t your dad’s Kentucky Derby we’re talking about any more, and as Funny Cide proved, you can win the Derby if you’re bred in the Empire State. Rudy Rodriguez has a nice colt on his hands, and one that is bred to relish the main track, so with a lucrative stakes program for dirt horses in New York this winter, I fully expect to see COCO IS LOCO to pop up in one of them in the very near future.

The Bench Player: How often have we seen a star player get hurt, only to have someone on the bench come in and save the day?

It happens all the time, and in racing it’s even more prevalent, especially on the Triple Crown Trail, when we are dealing with fragile Thoroughbreds that are being asked to cram a lot into a very short period of time. If you’re a big-name trainer, you better have a contingency plan just in case your star pupil heads to the sidelines. This year’s Bench Player

is SHAGAF for Chad Brown (pictured), and owner Shadwell Stable (who also own Mohaymen), as he was sensational winning his debut by 6 at Aqueduct in November, while going 0.79 faster than odds-on and experienced MSW winner Seymourdini did two races earlier.

The son of Bernardini is out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Muhaawara, who is a half-sister to the millionaire Eldaafar, who won the G3 Greenwood Cup going 1 ½ miles on the main track at Parx.

How’s that for a 1 ¼-mile pedigree, folks? Sure, SHAGAF probably didn’t beat a thing at Aqueduct, but he did it the right way, in a fast time and was visually impressive, so you have to think he’s going to get a major class hike in his next start and looks more than a willing replacement should GIFT BOX stub his toe.

The Walk-On: The most unpublicized member of any college basketball team, the WalkOn never gets any playing time

50

and routinely takes all the worst of it, as he’s the type that always has to give up his seat to the star player during a timeout (if he even has a seat!) and gets beat up in practice while serving as a scout team player. Simply put, the walkon is the 100-1 shot that rarely cracks the superfecta in a Derby prep, let alone wins it. But every now and then a Built for Pleasure wins the Fountain of Youth at 1431 and shocks the world and reminds us why we love (and hate) this game. This year’s Walk-On is VINCENTO, who looked great winning his debut at Belmont in October and then probably got exposed in his last, when he was a wide, “someone had to be 3rd” at odds-on in an optional claimer at Aqueduct in November. The New York-bred is a son of Include and out of a Grindstone mare, so the pedigree to excel going long is there, and with Rudy Rodriguez calling the shots, you’ve got a top trainer. I’m not giving up on him just yet.

So there you have it, a nine-pack of runners that offer a little bit of everything. Who’s on your team?

51

52

TRIPLE CROWN NEARLY TRIPLED FOR OAKLAWN PARK

By Jerry Shottenkirk

With a little more luck, Oaklawn Park officials would have been able to boast three Triple Crown winners since 2004.

Of course, it’s probably enough that the racing jewel of the midsouth region can say it loud and proud that American Pharoah used the top Arkansas prep races for the Kentucky Derby and later, of course, became the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.

But it should have been more. With a tiny bit of racing luck, Oaklawn could’ve flown the banners of Smarty Jones and Alex Alfeet as well.

Imagine that. Three Triple Crown winners through that time would have been unreal for the sport overall and the bragging rights it would’ve provided would’ve beyond belief.

Oaklawn Park decades ago fought for inclusion among the elite in Kentucky Derby preps.

Oaklawn today is elite. In 3-year-old programs and horses it produces, it can be held in the same vein as California, New York, Florida and Kentucky are envious after last year.

Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher and other top-flight trainers often are well-represented in the Arkansas Derby. But it goes beyond that single race three weeks before the

53

Kentucky Derby. The Southwest Stakes and the Rebel are also useful ‘preps for the preps’. The Rebel is not far off at all from the Arkansas Derby when it comes to purse money, if not prestige.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby (via Hot Springs) includes the $100,000 Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 18, the G3 $500,000 Southwest Stakes on Feb. 15, the G2 $900,000 Rebel Stakes on March 19 and the G1 $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 16.

Oaklawn is a different breed of cat. While on-track attendance isn’t en vogue at most tracks, it’s not uncommon to see 40,000 to 60,000 fans congregate to Hot Springs on big days. It’s what folks want in the first quarter of the year. It’s a resort. The natural springs, Lake Hamilton, the apple blossoms and rest of the setting make it a fashionable destination … and, oh yeah, the horses are pretty good.

Pharoah the Rocket American Pharoah is still fresh to us. Memories are clear of the June day at Belmont when he was so far clear and was so majestic as he became the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.

Pharoah’s skills were sharpened at Oaklawn.

In his 1st try since September, when he won the G1 FrontRunner Stakes over eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red, American Pharoah was sent into the G2 Rebel Stakes and Oaklawn fans welcomed him with their wallets as they made him 2-5 on the tote board. He responded with a 6 1/4-length win that was effortless.

Baffert said at the time that American Pharoah had a good chance to be the best horse he ever trained. In the coming months, that would ring true.

The Arkansas Derby was as easy.

American Pharoah tracked 38-1 long shot Bridget’s Big Luvy, took command in hand and reported

54

home by eight lengths. He was a 1-10 betting proposition.

We know the rest of the story. But it was Oaklawn where American Pharoah truly spread his wings.

Clearly he was really a good one beforehand, but he became great at Oaklawn. And to some, he would be become one of the greatest.

The What Ifs Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex never entered those hallowed halls of Triple Crown turfdom.

But they were, oh, so close and were clearly the best of their classes.

With a break or two, each would’ve won the Triple Crown.

That is without exaggeration.

Smarty Jones was a dominant character on the scene in 2004. A great front runner, he came just yards shy of the Triple Crown when Birdstone got to him. It was the only loss of his career.

Afleet Alex worked in reverse. After being barely caught by 50-1 winner

55

Giacomo and 70-1 Closing Argument in the Derby, he was dominant in the Preakness and Belmont. His recovery from clipping the heels of Scrappy T. was an impressive as any sheer demonstration of a desire to win.

Had Smarty Jones run slight slower during the early going of the Belmont, he would’ve been a racing immortal. Had Afleet Alex been closer early and had a better timed in the stretch, he, too, would’ve gotten the ultimate accolades.

But weeks before Triple Crown series, Hot Springs was where they ate their hay.

Trainer Tim Ritchey brought Afleet Alex to Oaklawn in '05 and maybe he would’ve done it anyway, but the great display by Smarty Jones the year before could’ve had something to do with it.

Trainer John Servis brought Smarty Jones to Oaklawn after a maiden win and Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes at Philadelphia Park in November, and the colt’s performance in the Nursery

probably was the moment when it was clear that this one didn’t belong with Pennsylvania-breds. He won by 15 lengths and moved on to bigger challenges. After a win in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 3, the stakes schedule at Oaklawn was the target.

Afleet Alex was not favored in his career debut at Delaware Park in late June of 2004. But an 11 1/4length win gave more than just a little hint of what Ritchey was dealing. It only got better a couple of weeks later when he beat allowance rivals by 12 lengths.

Delaware race fans had to be sure that it would be the last they saw of him.

Saratoga was not a challenge as he won the Sanford and Hopeful Stakes, and then he suffered his first loss – a half-length decision to Proud Accolade at Belmont. After a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (to Wilko), Oaklawn was the target.

56

After a sprint win in the Mountain Valley, he finished last of six in the Rebel. He was diagnosed with a lung infection and all was forgiven.

Afleet Alex was favored in the Arkansas Derby a month later and scored by eight lengths over Flower Alley and others. Like Smarty Jones a year prior, he moved onto the Triple Crown readied in Hot Springs.

There have been years when the Arkansas Derby winner has been ineffective after moving on. But since 2004, one would be challenged to find a stronger race on the Kentucky Derby prep scene.

– HPN

57

Jerry Shottenkirk’s Top 10 Oaklawn 3YOs Since 2004 American Pharoah (2015) – Triple Crown winner, top 3YO anywhere since 2004 and far beyond. First Crown winner since 1978 made short work of Rebel and Arkansas Derby fields.

Afleet Alex (2005) – A lung infection led to a last-place finish in the Rebel. More than made up for it with an authoritative score in the Arkansas Derby in what was one of the all-time great local performances. Preakness and Belmont wins made him a legend.

Smarty Jones (2004) – Sharply held off competition and entered the Kentucky Derby unbeaten.

He kept that record intact until he lost the Belmont and Triple Crown in the final strides.

Curlin (2007) – Hard to find a glitch in this one. Romped in the Arkansas Derby after a Rebel win and went on to become a 2time Horse of the Year winner.

Bodemeister (2012) – Raced only 6 times, and he annihilated his Arkansas Derby rivals. Was 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and was retired.

Lookin at Lucky (2010) – Took the path of winning the Rebel and then running 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby and winning Preakness.

Will Take Charge (2013) – Won the Rebel, skipped the Arkansas Derby and went on to become a Grade 1 regular.

Hoppertunity (2014) – Skipped the Arkansas Derby after a Rebel win and was 2nd to California Chrome in the SA Derby.

Secret Circle (2012) – Couldn’t come close to Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby, but won the Rebel and Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

The Factor (2011) – Cruised home in the Rebel ahead of eventual BC Dirt Mile winner Caleb’s Posse. Turned into a sprinter, but had some brilliant appearances.

58

And, upon the occasion of history, the Belmont Stakes may provide more lifetime memories. But the one show that consistently delivers is the Preakness.

BALTIMORE HAS BECOME TITLE TOWN

By Jeremy Plonk The middle jewel of Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown may shine brightest of all. True, the Kentucky Derby rates bigger – there’s only one first Saturday in May.

Championship performances don’t always take center stage in Louisville. And they’re even more rare on Long Island. At Old Hilltop, however, championship efforts on the racetrack not only are common, they’re expected. That’s not hyperbole, that’s history.

Consider the hardware eclipsed (literally) by not just Preakness alumni, but Preakness winners: PREAKNESS & 3YO CHAMPS 2015 American Pharoah 2014 California Chrome 2012 I’ll Have Another 2010 Lookin At Lucky 2009 Rachel Alexandra (3F) 2008 Big Brown 2007 Curlin 2006 Bernardini 2005 Afleet Alex 2004 Smarty Jones 2003 Funny Cide 2002 War Emblem 2001 Point Given

Since 2001, the only Preakness winners NOT to be named 3-yearold champion were Shackleford (2011) and Oxbow (2013). That’s 13 out of the last 15 years! And in those two ‘missing’ seasons, the title went to Preakness also-rans Animal Kingdom (’11, 2nd) and Will Take Charge (’13, 7th).

Facts are, the only 3-year-old champion not to compete in the Preakness since 1994 was Tiznow in 2000. So while it may be en vogue to pass the Preakness in preparation for the Belmont Stakes by many modern horsemen, that plan has been short-sighted in success for the final jewel. The champions battle in Baltimore – pure and simple.

Why has the Preakness had so much success delivering a champion? A couple of factors potentially are in play:  Field size normalizes.  Pimlico’s very fair surface.

 Two-week turnaround.  1-3/16 miles distance.

59

The combination of these real factors has produced a formful race that allows the best to shine.

Consider that 8 of the last 11 Preakness winners have been 3-1 or less. Only 2 victors since 1911 – yes, 2 since 1911 – have been upsetters at 20-1 or more. If you are fishing for a Giacomo, Da’Tara or Mine That Birdtype here, you’re banking in the wrong direction.

Preakness fields historically have been made up by an average of 5 Kentucky Derby alumni per year.

That average has remained nearly identical from the 1970s, ‘80s, ‘90s, ‘00s and ‘10s today. And with an overall field much more manageable between 9-13 starters annually, that gives horseplayers a strong sense of matchups.

While you often hear about the Churchill Downs surface being magically souped up Derby week,

60

and Belmont owns its reputation that you either love ‘Big Sandy’ or you don’t, when’s the last time you heard a Preakness also-ran trainer talk about his or her horse not liking the track? Neil Drysdale called the wet track ‘greasy’ when short-priced Fusaichi Pegasus lost in 2000, but that was a lot of water under the bridge ago – literally.

two-week turnaround. And in the last 30 years, the only other to have a longer break than two weeks and win the middle jewel was Red Bullet in ’00.

While the 2-week turnaround from the Derby to Preakness often fills interviews as banter, the reality has been that it’s much ado about nothing. Had it been such an important stickling point, we would have seen far more ‘new shooters’ have success at Pimlico than we have. It’s been since Bernardini in ’06 that the Preakness has been captured by a runner NOT on a

Finally, the Preakness obviously measures the shortest of the Triple Crown races, 110 yards the junior to the Kentucky Derby and 550 yards shorter than the Belmont. As American breeding slants more to speed than stamina, it’s only natural that the horses produced are more apt to appreciate the trip at Pimlico than anywhere else.

- HPN

Laurel Park

Winter/Spring Stakes CLOSES ........... RUNS.................STAKE ..................................................... AGE .....................DISTANCE .......................PURSE Fri., Dec. 20 .......Sat., Jan. 2 .........What A Summer ......................................... F&M 4 & Up.......... 6 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 Guaranteed Fri., Dec. 20 .......Sat., Jan. 2 .........Native Dancer ............................................ 4 & Up .................. About 11/16 Miles .............. $75,000 Guaranteed Fri., Dec. 20 .......Sat., Jan. 2 .........Nellie Morse ............................................... F&M 4 & Up.......... About 11/16 Miles .............. $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 2 ........Sat., Jan. 16 .......Fire Plug ..................................................... 4 & Up .................. 6 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 2 ........Sat., Jan. 16 .......Marshua ..................................................... Fillies 3-y-o ......... 6 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 2 ........Sat., Jan. 16 .......Frank Whiteley, Jr. ..................................... 3-y-o .................... 7 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 16 ......Sat., Jan. 30 .......Conniver (Registered MD-Breds)...................... F&M 4 & Up.......... 7 Furlongs ........................ $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 30 ......Sat., Feb. 13 .......Barbara Fritchie (Grade 2)......................... F&M 4 & Up.......... 7 Furlongs ........................ $300,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 30 ......Sat., Feb. 13 .......John B. Campbell....................................... 4 & Up .................. 11/8 Miles .......................... $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 30 ......Sat., Feb. 13 .......Maryland Racing Media ............................ F&M 4 & Up.......... About 11/16 Miles .............. $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 30 ......Mon., Feb. 15 ......General George (Grade 3) .......................... 4 & Up .................. 7 Furlongs ........................ $250,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 30 ......Mon., Feb. 15 ......Miracle Wood ............................................. 3-y-o .................... 1 Mile ............................... $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Jan. 30 ......Mon., Feb. 15 ......Wide Country (Listed)................................ Fillies 3-y-o ......... 7 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Feb. 27 ......Sat., Mar. 12 .......Caesar's Wish ............................................ Fillies 3-y-o ......... 1 Mile ............................... $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Feb. 27 ......Sat., Mar. 12 .......Private Terms ............................................. 3-y-o .................... About 11/16 Miles .............. $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Feb. 27 ......Sat., Mar. 19 .......Harrison Johnson Memorial...................... 3 & Up .................. 11/8 Miles .......................... $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Feb. 27 ......Sat., Mar. 19 .......Ben's Cat (Registered MD-Breds)..................... 3 & Up .................. 6 Furlongs ........................ $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Mar. 12 ......Sat., Mar. 26 .......Primonetta ................................................. F&M 3 & Up.......... 6 Furlongs ........................ $75,000 Guaranteed Fri., Mar. 18 .......Sat., Apr. 9 ..........Federico Tesio (WIn & You're In-Preakness) ............... 3-y-o .................... 11/8 Miles .......................... $100,000 Guaranteed Fri., Mar. 18 .......Sat., Apr. 9 ..........Weber City Miss (WIn & You're In-Black-Eyed Susan) ..... Fillies 3-y-o ......... About 11/16 Miles .............. $100,000 Guaranteed Sat., Apr. 2.........Sat., Apr. 16 ........Dahlia ......................................................... F&M 3 & Up.......... 1 Mile (Turf) ..................... $75,000 Guaranteed Sat., Apr. 2.........Sat., Apr. 16 ........Henry S. Clark ............................................ 3 & Up .................. 1 Mile (Turf) ..................... $75,000 Guaranteed Visit laurelpark.com for full racing schedule.

at Laurel Park

P.O. Box 130, Laurel, Maryland 20725 800.638.1859 • 301.725.0400 • Fax 301.725.4561 Coleman "Coley" Blind, Stakes Coordinator

62

By Candice Hare Following American Pharoah’s historic “Grand Slam” accomplishment, winning both the Triple Crown and the Breeders’

Cup Classic, and with the news Empire Maker will be returning from Japan to stand in America, it seems fitting to remember the horse who links them together: Unbridled.

A large horse with the stride of a cheetah, Unbridled possessed the speed of a sprinter, but was able to harness that speed over a route. At a time when the American bloodstock industry was struggling, Unbridled was its hero and ultimately, the patriarch of one of its most successful families.

A son of G1 Met Mile winner Fappiano, a sire of sires through Cryptoclearance and Quiet American as well as Unbridled, and out of a mare by French Derby winner Le Fabuleux, Unbridled had champion bloodlines. His pedigree was not only classy, but it was balanced, including lines which injected both speed and stamina.

A winner on debut at Arlington Park, Unbridled was a serial placegetter as a two-year-old and it wasn’t until the G1 Florida Derby in

63

March of his three-year-old season that he had his true coming of age.

While Unbridled wasn’t among the Kentucky Derby favorites as they loaded into the gate, by the time racecaller Dave Johnson had uttered his most famous line -“And down the stretch they come!” -- the big horse had surged to the lead down the center of the track in the easiest fashion, cementing his status among his crop with a blanket of roses (click video to re-live the run by Unbridled and magical reaction).

The horse with a big heart only matched in size by his stature was a Kentucky Derby winner, and yet, despite an additional win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and subsequently adding the title of Eclipse Champion three-year-old male, his best successes would come long after retirement.

At stud, he was an immediate success through his first-crop sons Grindstone and Unbridled’s Song, with both making it to the Kentucky Derby.

It was Grindstone, however, who would follow in his father’s footsteps, winning on the first Saturday in May. The second consecutive Derby winner for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, he was retired straight after the race when found to have a knee chip. While his racing career was cut short, he’d go on to be a productive stallion, siring Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, who himself would become renowned as a source of stamina after his upset victory over Smarty Jones to win the furthest of the three Classics.

Birdstone, amazingly, sired two different Classic winners in the same crop: 50-1 Kentucky Derby shocker Mine That Bird, and the horse who would topple him in the Belmont, Summer Bird.

Unbridled’s other first crop superstar was Unbridled’s Song, a large, strapping grey who was a

64

star before he was even entered for a race. A record-breaking $1.4 million purchase at the Barretts March two-year-olds in training sale, it was only after his Japanese would-be buyers backed out following a veterinary examination that he remained in the US. The decision to race him turned out to be a good one, as he won the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in near track-record fashion in only his third career start. He twice stopped the show for gamblers and fans alike with his Florida Derby and Wood Memorial double serving as two of the more memorable Derby preps to this day. He was unlucky, however, to sustain a quarter crack in his Wood Memorial win and with a bar-shoe fitted for the Kentucky Derby, he was no match for Grindstone. Regardless, taking into account his foot issues, poor post position, and the early fractions he chased, it was as admirable an effort as any.

While other sons of Unbridled would accomplish more on track, Unbridled’s Song served as his

sire’s true successor in the breeding shed. Sons and daughters of Unbridled’s Song earned visits to the winner’s circle in graded stakes races throughout the duration of his stallion career. Missing from his resume, however, was the winner of a single leg of the Triple Crown.

He did, however, come close with Dunkirk, who finished second in the Belmont.

Unbridled, the most recent stallion to have sired a winner of each Triple Crown race, got his Preakness glory with Red Bullet, who, like Unbridled’s Song, was a grandson of multiple French G1 winner Caro. A distant second to Fusaichi Pegasus in the G1 Wood Memorial, Red Bullet’s connections opted to skip the Kentucky Derby and point their charge towards Maryland’s biggest race. That plan paid off grandly when, despite breaking slow and

65

being steadied heading onto the backstretch, he put on a brilliant ducking-and-weaving display under Jerry Bailey en route to a last-tofirst 3 ¾ length victory over the Derby winner.

The third leg of Unbridled’s sire Triple Crown came via Empire Maker. A Juddmonte Farms homebred, Empire Maker (pictured) was out of the classy El Gran Senor mare Toussaud, a winner of the G3 Criterion Stakes in England, as well as the G1 Gamely in America. Aside from Empire Maker, her progeny also included G1 Santa Monica Handicap winner Honest Lady -- dam of another G1 winner and successful sire First Defence -- as well as G1 Secretariat Stakes winner Chiselling, G2 winner and successful California-based stallion Decarchy, and G1 Arlington Million winner Chester House. In addition to his successes on track, Chester

House also sired Breeders’ Cup winners Muhannak and Ventura.

While he only raced 8 times, Empire Maker -- like his sire -- won the G1 Florida Derby, his first top line success. He then went on to win the G1 Wood Memorial before finishing second behind Funny Cide in the Kentucky Derby. Plagued by foot issues, Empire Maker’s connections opted to skip the Preakness in favor of the longer Belmont Stakes. With Funny Cide favored to win the Triple Crown and heavy rainfall having left the Belmont Park surface sloppy, Empire Maker surged forward turning for home and never looked back, avenging his Kentucky Derby defeat in the process.

In addition to Empire Maker producing two-time Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Royal Delta, he had Triple Crown success through his progeny despite not standing in America for any great length of time.

Although Bodemeister didn’t win any of the Triple Crown legs, he

66

was second in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. His Derby loss, in particular, is widely viewed as one of the bravest defeats in the race’s history, as he succumbed late after having led at speedy fractions. He didn’t race again after sustaining an injury and, after a six-race career in which he never finished worse than second, he was off to stud at WinStar Farm.

Empire Maker already had almost sired a Derby winner when Pioneerof The Nile, owned by the same connections as Bodemeister, was second behind Mine That Bird in 2009. Entering that race, he had won four straight graded stakes including the G1 Santa Anita Derby.

Another who had his career prematurely cut short due to injury, he would become best known as the sire of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

In the months following American Pharoah’s triumphs, it was announced that Pioneerof The Nile’s stud fee would more than double to $125,000.

67

**Highlighted names are descendants of Unbridled**

‘15 ‘14 ‘13 ‘12 ‘11 ‘10 ‘09 ‘08

Kentucky Derby 1st American Pharoah California Chrome Orb (pictured) I’ll Have Another Animal Kingdom Super Saver Mine That Bird Big Brown

Kentucky Derby 2nd Firing Line Commanding Curve Golden Soul Bodemeister Nehro Ice Box Pioneerof The Nile Eight Belles

Kentucky Derby 3rd Dortmund Danza Revolutionary Dullahan Mucho Macho Man Paddy O’Prado Musket Man Denis of Cork

In addition to the grandsons and great-grandsons of Unbridled already mentioned, his legacy is carried on by several of his relations, most notably Birdstone and First Defence. Winner of both the Belmont and Travers Stakes, Birdstone’s recent runners include G1 Stephen Foster Handicap winner Noble Bird and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Swipe.

A sire of sires in the truest sense of the word, Unbridled may have had big shoes to fill, but he lives on through his sons and many young grandsons at stud.

First Defence has additionally represented Unbridled via his multiple G1-winning millionaire Close Hatches as well as Hong Kong G2 winner Dundonnell.

Looking towards the future, Unbridled’s legacy will also be

carried on by multiple G1 winners Will Take Charge and Liam’s Map (pictured); the former regally bred, being out of Broodmare of the Year Take Charge Lady, and the latter, who became known for his powerful, front-running speed, out of G3 winner Miss Macy Sue. Despite passing away far too soon at age 14 following a severe bout

68

of colic, Unbridled’s rather large shadow is still cast over American Thoroughbred racing with his impact having spread far and wide.

With the class and stamina-laden three-year-old classics his stage, Unbridled’s legacy looks certain to live on for years to come.

– HPN

69

Top Contenders Who Trace Back to Unbridled Damsire Unbridled’s Song

Chad Brown

Sire Birdstone

Keith Desormeaux

Sire Unbridled’s Song

Dale Romans

Damsire Songandaprayer

Jason Servis

Grand dam Tap Your Heels

Kiaran McLaughlin

70

By Jeremy Plonk Favorites have beaten the horseplayer’s psyche with a series of blows the past few years that have pinned us to the ropes. The once-standard talking point that the chalk wins a third of the time has been spiked to 38-40 percent at nearly every meet in America.

Chaos has been removed at Keeneland, where dirt whisked away Polytrack … and the juicy prices that went with it. Even our beloved first Saturday in May hasn’t escaped the flurry of favorites. Orb, California Chrome

and American Pharoah have debunked the Derby’s aura of puzzlement.

The chalk has won the Kentucky Derby three years in a row dating back to I’ll Have Another’s mild upset in 2012. That hasn’t been done since the mid-1970s when Secretariat kicked off a troika of winning post-time favorites.

And while I’d love to tell you it’s all about to change, odds are (pun intended) it won’t. Take a look at the formful nature of the last 3 years in the 6 major final preps:

Prep Name Louisiana Derby Florida Derby Santa Anita Derby Wood Memorial Blue Grass Stakes Arkansas Derby

2013 Win Odds 2/1 5/2 6/1 4/5 9/2 7/2

Of the last 18 major preps run the past 3 years, 12 of the winners have been 5/2 or less; 15 of 17 were 6/1 or less; and 17 of 18 were single-digit odds. The two biggest bombs in the past 3 years

2014 Win Odds 3/1 3/1 3/5 9/1 6/1 41/1

2015 Win Odds 2/1 9/5 3/5 2/1 2/5 1/9

72

were Danza at 41-1 in the 2014 Arkansas Derby and Wicked Strong at 9-1 in the 2014 Wood Memorial (pictured). Last year’s 6 majors produced a ‘high’ price at 2-1 and average win odds of even money.

The 2015 season was amazingly formful on the Kentucky Derby trail. Favorites won 14 of 24 dirt preps on the season that offered qualifying points for the Derby.

Race Name Jerome Sham Lecomte Smarty Jones Holy Bull Withers Lewis Mem’l Southwest Risen Star Fountain of Youth Gotham Tampa Bay Derby San Felipe Rebel Sunland Derby Florida Derby UAE Derby Louisiana Derby Wood Memorial Blue Grass Santa Anita Derby Arkansas Derby Blue Grass Lexington

73

Their overall record of 24: 14-5-2 showed 19 in the exacta and only 3 missing the trifecta. Consider the results of all 24 races in the table below:

Winner Name El Kabeir Calculator International Star Far Right Upstart Far From Over Dortmund Far Right International Star (DQ) Itsaknockout El Kabeir Carpe Diem Dortmund American Pharoah Firing Line Materiality Mubtaahij International Star Frosted Carpe Diem Dortmund American Pharoah Carpe Diem Divining Rod

Win Fav Odds Fin 1.45 1 0.6 1 9.2 7 2.7 3 2.1 2 6.2 2 0.6 1 2.7 3 3.8 5 5.4 2 1.3 1 1 1 0.8 1 0.4 1 0.2 1 1.8 2 1.2 1 2.3 1 2.2 4 0.4 1 0.6 1 0.1 1 0.4 1 2.9 2

And, of course, the public didn't miss in the Triple Crown as American Pharoah swept the series as the favorite in each leg (specifically 5/2, 4/5 and 3/5).

So what do we make of all this chaos-free racing on the trail?

Some of it likely has to do with the modern importance of the Kentucky Derby itself. While storied horse farms once tried to produce and race a Derby winner, much of today’s ownership buys its prospects as yearlings or 2year-olds and then gives them to trainers who are enlisted with getting to the first Saturday in May. Today’s trainer, as Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas once told me, is trying to sell the experience as much as anything to owners. Get them to the big ball, let them feel the magic of being there and its importance, and you’ve hooked a

74

auction/sales buyer for years to come.

The Kentucky Derby has morphed into a recruiting tool as much as a winning objective. With that said, it’s not about building a foundation slowly from January through April to peak on Derby Day, it’s about winning races along the way to get there.

If trainers and owners set the bar of just getting to the Derby as the achievement, then the trickledown effect has been that contenders appear fewer and fewer times on the trail.

What used to be a 3 or 4-prep season now has become a 2 or 3-prep season.

There are no giveaway races in these cases; you can’t come out lollygagging in your 3-year-old debut if given only a few chances to make the lineup. Spots must be achievable to win as much as they are appropriate for a horse’s current form cycle.

The misguided race to acquire qualification for the Kentucky Derby field also has been a major influence on the prep trail. Horses are divided across the country looking for easier spots to gain qualifying points, or to separate from major stablemates.

Where you once would have seen a coupling or multiple entries from the same barn in a major prep, now they are separated to try and accrue sufficient points to land in the Top 20. Bob Baffert kept his stars American Pharoah and Dortmund apart last year until meeting in Louisville, where they finished first and third. Consider that in 1998 he ran Indian Charlie and Real Quiet against one another in the Santa Anita Derby.

But there’s one elephant in the room few talk about: Rarely ever is the 20-horse limit even in play for any runners of significance.

But the faux pressure to make the first Saturday in May has made for interesting fodder and media/fan discussion … both in the gradedstakes earnings era, as well as the current points system, which has been in play for two absolutely inconsequential years. – C2C

75

BIGGEST PREP UPSETTERS TO MAKE KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD (1955-present)

Rockamundo 1993 Arkansas Derby 108-1 Danza 2014 Arkansas Derby 41-1 Rockwall 1982 California Derby 41-1 Stately Victor 2010 Blue Grass 40-1 Friends Lake 2004 Florida Derby 37-1 Current Hope 1983 Flamingo 37-1 Dust Commander 1970 Blue Grass 35-1 (won Kentucky Derby)

76

Date

Stakes

Distance

Track

Jan 2 Jan 2 Jan 2 Jan 2 Jan 9 Jan 16 Jan 16 Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 23 Jan 30 Jan 30 Jan 30 Jan 30 Jan 30 Jan 30 Feb 6 Feb 13 Feb 13 Feb 13 Feb 15 Feb 15 Feb 15 Feb 20 Feb 20 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 27 Feb 27 Mar 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 26 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 2 Apr 2 Apr 9 Apr 9 Apr 9 Apr 9 Apr 16 Apr 16 Apr 16 May 7 May 14 May 21 June 11

Mucho Macho Man * G3 Hutcheson * Dania Beach (turf) * G3 Jerome G3 Sham G3 Lecomte Frank Whitley, Jr. * California Derby (syn) * Smarty Jones Pasco * G2 Holly Bull Kitten’s Joy (turf) * G2 Swale * WEBN Stakes * California Cup Derby * (CA) Riley Allison Derby * G3 Robert B. Lewis G3 Withers G3 El Camino Real (syn) G3 Sam F. Davis G3 Southwest Miracle Wood * G2 San Vicente Mine That Bird G2 Risen Star Turf Paradise Derby * G2 Fountain of Youth G3 Palm Beach (turf) * Battalgia Mem. (syn)* G3 Gotham G2 San Felipe G2 Tampa Bay Derby Private Terms * G2 Rebel G3 Sunland Derby UAE Derby * G2 Louisiana Derby G1 Florida Derby G3 Spiral (syn) Rushaway (syn) * G1 Wood Memorial G1 Santa Anita Derby G1 Blue Grass Federico Tesio G1 Arkansas Derby G3 Lexington G3 Illinois Derby G1 Kentucky Derby G2 Peter Pan G1 Preakness G1 Belmont Stakes

1 Mile 6 Furlongs 7-1/2 furlongs 1 Mile 70Yd 1 Mile 1 Mile 70Yd 7 Furlongs 1 1/16 Miles 1 Mile 7 furlongs 1 1/16 Miles 1 Mile 7 Furlongs 6-1/2 Furlongs 1 1/16 Miles 1 mile 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 Mile 7 Furlongs 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 3/16 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 1/16 Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 ¼ Miles 1 1/8 Miles 1 3/16 Miles 1 ½ Miles

GP GP GP Aqu SA FG Lrl GG OP Tam GP GP GP TP SA Sun SA Aqu GG Tam OP Lrl SA Sun FG TuP GP GP TP Aqu SA Tam Lrl OP Sun Mey FG GP TP TP Aqu SA Kee Pim OP Kee Haw CD Bel Pim Bel

(*) denotes races are not previewed in the Preseason Annual.

Derby Points

10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1

10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1

10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1

50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5

50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5 100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 50-20-10-5 100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 10-4-2-1

77

A N Y W H E R E

WATCH AND WAGER FROM ANYWHERE! • Exclusive handicapping tips and tools • FREE Past Performances • Live streaming video and race replays • Real time racing information • EZmoney online deposit and withdrawal service Be a part of all the action Anywhere in Arkansas!

$100 SIGN UP BONUS AT OAKLAWNANYWHERE.COM

Gambling Problem? 1-800-522-4700

78

JEROME STAKES January 2, 2016

Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: New York’s first of 4 route dirt preps that culminate in the Wood Memorial. This 1 mile and 70-yard affair on the inner-dirt course can be largely impacted by Mother Nature. A mild winter increases its quality; a nasty winter diminishes it to nearly all locals.

The traditional fall meet race moved to spring in 2011 and then to its current winter position in 2013. Locally based outfits have won all 3 editions since the January calendar move. The Jerome has been more apt to produce top sprinters like Vyjack, Discreet Cat, The Lumber Guy and Silver Train, no matter the date it has been contested.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: El Kabeir (pictured) kicked off his 3YO season in easy, winning fashion as the 7-5 favorite over 7 rivals, none of which would go on to compete in the Triple Crown series.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Only 2 horses, Vyjack and Matuszak, have made Triple Crown race bids since the Jerome moved to January 3 years ago. It also produced a BC Sprint winner (The Lumber Guy, ’12) and a Preakness third during its 2-year run in April.

Triple Crown alumni since 2011 include:

Ky Derby: Vyjack (18th, ’13).

Preakness: Astrology (3rd, ’11).

Belmont: Vyjack (8th, ’13), Matuszak (DNF, ’14).

79

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Jerome Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Terranova 101 El Kabeir C.C. Lopez Noble Moon I. Ortiz Jr. Gyarmati 95 Vyjack C. Velasquez R. Rodriguez 93 The Lumber Guy Luzzi Hushion 96 Adios Charlie Maragh Hough 101 Girolamo A. Garcia bin Suroor 105 Tale of Ekati C. Velasquez Tagg 100 Daaher Luzzi McLaughlin 109 Discreet Cat Gomez Bin Suroor 112 Silver Train Prado R. Dutrow 110

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05

Winning Preps for Last 10 Jerome Winners El Kabeir 1st Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD) Noble Moon 3rd Nashua Stakes (Aqu) Vyjack 1st Overnight Stakes (Aqu) The Lumber Guy 5th Wood Memorial (Aqu) Adios Charlie 1st Allowance (GP) Girolamo Race held after the Triple Crown.

Tale of Ekati Race held after the Triple Crown.

Daaher Race held after the Triple Crown.

Discreet Cat Race held after the Triple Crown.

Silver Train Race held after the Triple Crown.

INSIDE THE JEROME STAKES: Parx-based invaders have run second each of the past 3 years since the winter move (Classic Giacnroll, Siete de Oros, Nasa). The last 4 winners have all been close to the pace and 4 straight have exited stakes or overnight stakes attempts.

80

SHAM STAKES January 9, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The first route prep leading up to the Santa Anita Derby, last year’s Sham drew 8 entrants after only 14 competed in the previous 3 years combined. The Dec. 19 Los Alamitos Futurity is run just 3 weeks prior.

Though the Sham inaugurated in 2001, it has been a January mile since 2011 after once being a 9furlong test later in the meet. The race has become a middle-distance haven with eventual Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winners Tapizar and Goldencents (pictured) among its alumni, as well as BC Sprint champ Secret Circle.

The Sham is named for the 1973 star 3-year-old who ran second to Secretariat in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Calculator, away since chasing American Pharoah in September, returned an easy 4-1/4 length winner. The 3-5 favorite didn’t face any runners who would go on to perform in the Triple Crown.

Calculator was injured thereafter and did not move along the trail.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Let’s look at only the 5 years at a shorter distance in January to compare apples to apples. Outside of Goldencents, the Sham has whiffed in its attempt to be relevant on the big stage.

Ky Derby: Goldencents (17th, ’13) Preakness: Goldencents (5th, ’13) Belmont: none

81

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Sham Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Trujillo Miller 100 Calculator Midnight Hawk Smith Baffert 97 Goldencents Krigger O’Neill 93 Out of Bounds Gomez Harty 105 Tapizar Gomez Asmussen 103 Alphie’s Bet Solis Barba 94 The Pamplemousse Solis Canani 97 Colonel John Gomez Harty 90 Ravel Gomez M. McCarthy 102 Bob And John Espinoza Baffert 106

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ‘07

Winning Preps for Last 10 Sham Stakes Winners Calculator 2nd FrontRunner (SA) Midnight Hawk 1st Maiden (Hol/BHP) Goldencents 1st Delta Jackpot (DeD) Out of Bounds 1st Maiden (Hol/BHP) Tapizar 1st Maiden (CD) Alphie’s Bet 1st Maiden (SA) The Pamplemousse 1st San Rafael (SA) Colonel John 2nd CashCall Futurity (Hol/BHP) Ravel 1st Maiden (Hol/BHP)

’06 Bob And John

1st

Allowance (SA)

INSIDE THE SHAM STAKES: Horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile have won 5 straight. 9 of last 11 Sham winners exited prep victories (4 of last 6 exiting maiden breakers). Since moving to January, the Sham winners have respectively made 1, 4, 2, 4 and 4 prior career starts. Trainer Bob Baffert has 1 win and 2 seconds in the past 3 editions in which he’s had a starter (Midnight Hawk, Den’s Legacy and Secret Circle).

LECOMTE STAKES

82

January 16, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The same weekend as the region’s Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, the Lecomte opens Fair Grounds’ 3-race prep schedule.

Over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend, the two races compete for many of the same-type runners and each are middle-distance races around 2 turns.

The Lecomte has been a fairly even split of local horses who are taking a class rise into the stakes ranks as well as proven stakes commodities from their 2YO seasons.

At a mile and 70 yards in distance, the Lecomte serves as a similar rehearsal for the Risen Star (1-1/16 miles) en route to the Louisiana Derby (1-1/8 miles). For many young horses, this will be their first test of a demanding, lengthy stretch run at FG.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: International Star kicked off what would wind up a sweep of the FG sophomore series with a 9-1 upset.

Ken Ramsey (pictured) added to his Lecomte score a year prior (Vicar’s In Trouble) while besting a field that included 2015 Breeders’ Cup Sprint hero Runhappy.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: International Star was injured in the days leading up to last year’s TC. It’s been hit or miss of late.

Ky Derby: War Story (16th, ’15),

Vicar’s In Trouble (19th, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13), Oxbow (6th, ’13), Friesan Fire (18th, ’09), Hard Spun (2nd, ’07),

Preakness: Oxbow (1st, ’13),

Friesan Fire (10th, ‘09), Hard Spun (3rd, ’07)

Belmont: Hard Spun (4th, ’07)

83

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’05

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Lecomte Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) International Star Mena Maker 94 Vicar’s In Trouble Napravnik Maker 88 Oxbow Court Lukas 94 Mr Bowling Albarado L. Jones 95 Wilkinson Gomez Howard 92 Ron the Greek Graham Amoss 98 Friesan Fire Saez L. Jones 97 Z Fortune Bridgmohan Asmussen 99 Hard Spun Pino L. Jones 101 Storm Surge Albarado D. Stewart 93

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’05

Winning Preps for Last 10 Lecomte Stakes Winners International Star 4th Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD) Vicar’s In Trouble 1st Maiden (FG) Oxbow 4th CashCall Futurity (BHP) Mr Bowling 3rd Iroquois Stakes (CD) Wilkinson 3rd Allowance (FG) Ron the Greek 4th Springboard Mile (RP) Friesan Fire 2nd Allowance (FG) Z Fortune 1st Allowance (Aqu) Hard Spun 1st PA Nursery(Pha/Prx) Storm Surge 1st Sugar Bowl (FG)

INSIDE THE LECOMTE STAKES: 12 of the last 14 Lecomte winners were less than 3 lengths behind after the opening half-mile. 12 of the last 14 Lecomte winners were 5-1 or less. The race was not held in 2006 following Hurricane Katrina. Since ’07, it’s produced at least 1 Triple Crown starter every year except ’12.

84

SMARTY JONES STAKES January 18, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: While not yet a graded stakes, the Smarty Jones quickly has asserted itself as the kickoff to Oaklawn’s highly successful 4-race series for 3YOs. The 2-turn mile utilizes the sixteenth pole finish line, but deep closers Far Right, Caleb’s Posse, Will Take Charge and Flat Out all dot the winner’s roll call. Held on the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday card, the Smarty Jones competes directly the same holiday weekend with Fair Grounds’ Lecomte Stakes for horses. The Smarty Jones is named for the 2004 Ky Derby and Preakness winner who rose to stardom via Oaklawn’s series of preps. He earned a $5 million Centennial bonus during the track’s 100th season by winning the Arkansas Derby and Ky Derby.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: In last-to-first fashion, Far Right (pictured) rallied up the fence for a sharp score over Bayerd and 6-5 chalk Mr. Z. Far Right would go on to add the Southwest and run 2nd in the Arkansas Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Smarty Jones hasn’t had the immediate TC results over its 8 years as its graded brethren on the OP trail.

Ky Derby: Mr. Z (13th, ’15), Far

Right (15th, ’15), Will Take Charge (8th, ’13), Optimizer (11th, ’12), Archarcharch (dnf, ’11)

Preakness: Mr. Z (5th, ’15), Will

Take Charge (7th, ’13), Optimizer (6th, ’12)

Belmont: Will Take Charge (10th, ’13), Optimizer (10th, ’12)

85

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Smarty Jones Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Smith Moquett 92 Far Right Tanzanite Cat Arroyo Autrey 92 Will Take Charge Court Lukas 93 Junebugred Bravo Hobby 91 Caleb’s Posse Razo DK Von Hemel 85 Dryfly Borel Whiting 95 Flat Out JuGarcia Dickey 96 Liberty Bull Razo Amoss 92

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Smarty Jones Winners 3rd Delta Downs Jackpot (DeD) Far Right Tanzanite Cat 1st Maiden (FG) Will Take Charge 2nd Springboard Mile (RP) Junebugred 1st Maiden (Aqu) Caleb’s Posse 7th Springboard Mile (RP) Dryfly 1st Allowance (CD) Flat Out 1st Maiden (FG) Liberty Bull 2nd Sugar Bowl (FG)

INSIDE THE SMARTY JONES STAKES: Remington Park’s Springboard Mile in December has been a strong launching pad for the Smarty Jones with back-to-back runner-ups the past 2 years, and, prior to that, it delivered the 2013 and 2011 winners. Half of its 8 winners to date were rising in class from the maiden and allowance ranks.

Only eventual Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Caleb’s Posse (2011) has won the Smarty Jones exiting an off-the-board finish in his most recent start. In each of the past 4 years, the post time favorite has finished third (Mr. Z in 2015, Coastline in 2014, Always In A Tiz in 2013 and On Fire Baby in 2012) – all at odds below 2-1. The favorite hasn’t won this race since Dryfly in 2010 and the chalk is 8: 2-0-4 in the Smarty Jones all-time.

86

HOLY BULL January 30, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The 2nd of 4 major dirt routes on the Gulfstream trail, the Holy Bull offers the first 2-turn test for the circuit. Over the past decade, this race has been moved several times in distance and date. It’s morphed into a popular 3YO return date for star juveniles, many away since the Breeders’ Cup. Notable returnees here in recent years include champions Shanghai Bobby and Hansen, as well as Cairo Prince and Upstart. With a short run to the first turn and a sixteenth-pole finish line, early speed and post position can be important factors.

Holy Bull winners have been less likely to carry their form all season.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Upstart (pictured) romped by 51/2 lengths in his 3YO debut over a field that featured 4 eventual Kentucky Derby starters as well as Belmont Stakes 2-3 finishers Frosted and Keen Ice.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since its move to January, Holy Bull alumni have yet to win in TC. Consider that span (2009-’15):

Ky Derby: Frosted (4th, ’15), Keen

Ice (7th, ’15), Frammento (11th, ’15), Upstart (18th, ’15), Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Intense Holiday (12th, ’14), Itsmyluckyday (15th, ’13), Frac Daddy (16th, ’13), Hansen (9th, ’12), Mucho Macho Man (3rd, ’11), Dialed In (8th ’11), Jackson Bend (12th, ’10), Homeboykris (16th, ’10), West Side Bernie (9th, ’09).

Preakness: Itsmyluckyday (2nd,

’13), Dialed In (4th, ’11), Mucho Macho Man (6th, ’11), Jackson Bend (3rd, ’10), Aikenite (10th, ’10).

Belmont: Frosted (2nd, ’15), Keen

Ice (3rd, ’15), Frammento (5th, ’15), Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Frac Daddy (14th, ’13), My Adonis (8th, ’12), Mucho Macho Man (7th, ’11).

87

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Holy Bull Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Violette 105 ’15 Upstart J. Ortiz ’14 Cairo Prince L. Saez McLaughlin 98 ’13 Itsmyluckyday Trujillo Plesa 106 ’12 Algorithms Castellano Pletcher 105 ’11 Dialed In Leparoux Zito 104 ’10 Winslow Homer Dominguez T. Dutrow 95 ’09 Saratoga Sinner Leparoux Kenneally 102 ’08 Hey Byrn C. Lopez Plesa 90 ’07 Nobiz Like Shobiz C. Velasquez Tagg 103 ’06 Barbaro Prado Matz 104

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Holy Bull Stakes Winners Upstart 3rd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (SA) Cairo Prince 2nd Remsen (Aqu) Itsmyluckyday 1st Gulfstream Derby (GP) Algorithms 1st Allowance (GP) Dialed In 1st Maiden (CD) Winslow Homer 1st Allowance (Pha/Prx) Saratoga Sinner 1st Maiden (GP) Hey Byrn 1st Allowance (GP) Nobiz Like Shobiz 1st Remsen (Aqu) Barbaro 1st Tropical Park Derby (Crc)

INSIDE THE HOLY BULL STAKES: 10 straight winners exited Top-3 finishes in their most-recent prep, including 8 last-out winners. The last 3 years – when the race has been 1-1/16 miles around 2 turns – all 3 winners were within 1-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. Only 2 of the 9 trifecta placings the past 3 years have been secured by horses who had exited preps at the local GP meet – 7 were shippers/layoff types.

LEWIS MEMORIAL

88

February 6, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Formerly known as the Santa Catalina Stakes, the Lewis Memorial follows the Sham on the SoCal path as the second of four major preps leading into the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby.

It’s 1-1/16 miles distance and spacing from December’s G1 Los Al Futurity and October’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile make it an effective starting out point for big-timers.

Early speed has been very effective in this race with smaller field sizes.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Unbeaten Dortmund advanced to 4-for-4 while making his 3YO debut. The 3-5 favorite once again outslugged Los Al Futurity rival Firing Line despite losing the lead in the stretch.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Ferdinand and I’ll Have Another are the most recognizable winners of this prep to taste spring success.

Last year’s 1-2 finishers would come back to chase home American Pharoah on the first Saturday in May. From 1993-2015, its TC impact has been sparse. Top performances include:

Ky Derby: Firing Line (2nd, ’15),

Dortmund (3rd, ’15), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Pioneeerof The Nile (2nd, ’08), Charismatic (1st, ’99)

Preakness: I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Charismatic (1st, ’99)

Belmont: None.

89

Last 10 Lewis Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Dortmund Candy Boy Flashback I’ll Have Another Anthony’s Cross Caracortado Pioneerof the Nile Crown of Thorns Great Hunter Brother Derek

Garcia Stevens Leparoux Gutierrez Rosario Atkinson Gomez Espinoza Nakatani Solis

Baffert Sadler Baffert O’Neill Harty Machowsky Baffert Mandella O’Neill Hendricks

101 97 95 102 93 96 (s) 96 (s) 94 (s) 100 102

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Lewis Stakes Winners Dortmund 1st Los Alamitos Futurity (Lrc) Candy Boy 2nd CashCall Futurity (BHP/Hol) Flashback 1st Maiden (BHP/Hol) I’ll Have Another 6th Hopeful (SAR) Anthony’s Cross 3rd Sham (SA) Caracortado 1st Cal Breeders Champ (SA) Pioneerof the Nile 1st CashCall Futurity (Hol) Crown of Thorns 1st Maiden (SA) Great Hunter 3rd BC Juvenile (CD) Brother Derek 1st San Rafael (SA)

INSIDE THE LEWIS MEMORIAL STAKES: 4 of the last 11 winners exited the Los Alamitos Futurity (formerly the Hollywood/CashCall Futurity), including last year’s 1-2 finishers … 10 of the last 12 Lewis winners exited serious stakes preps, while field sizes have been limited (5-7-4-8-7 starters the last 5 years). The race is named for the late Bob Lewis (pictured previous page), who, with his wife, Beverly, raced and campaigned such stalwarts as Silver Charm.

WITHERS STAKES

90

Feburary 13, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: NYRA’s path now includes the Jerome, Withers, Gotham and Wood Memorial. This second leg moved on the stakes schedule 4 years ago after several years as an April stakes on the outer dirt track and one year in asylum (2011).

Trainers Todd Pletcher and Kiaran McLaughlin have combined to win 6 of the last 8 editions of the Withers and have supported the race no matter where it falls on the calendar.

Each of the 4 winners since moving to a winter date have been Aqueduct-prepped and NYRAbased performers. In the last 3 years, all but 2 starters have been horses exiting races at the Big A meet. The Withers has struggled with field sizes as a winter stakes (6,8,6,6 starters).

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: In his second lifetime start, Far From Over (pictured) added to his Aqu maiden debut win with a 6-1 upset of odds-on favorite El Kabeir.

The latter had exited a short-priced score in the Jerome in January.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: When in April, the Withers springboarded horses like Bernardini and Scrappy T to strong Preakness showings. In 2012-’15, as a winter prep:

Ky Derby: Tencendur (17th, ’15),

Samraat (5th, ’14), Uncle Sigh (14th, ’13), Alpha (12th, ’12), Revolutionary (3rd, ’13).

Preakness: none.

Belmont: Samraat (6th, ’14), Revolutionary (5th, ’13).

91

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Withers Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 Far From Over Franco Pletcher 96 ’14 Samraat J. Ortiz Violette 99 ’13 Revolutionary Castellano Pletcher 96 ’12 Alpha Dominguez McLaughlin 100 ’10 Afleet Again Mariano Reid 109 ’09 Mr. Fantasy Migliore McLaughlin 103 ’08 Harlem Rocker Coa Pletcher 96 ’07 Divine Park Garcia McLaughlin 97 ’06 Bernardini Castellano Albertrani 110 ’05 Scrappy T Arroyo Bailes 106

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05

Winning Preps for Last 10 Withers Stakes Winners Far From Over 1st Maiden (Aqu) Samraat 1st Damon Runyon (Aqu) Revolutionary 1st Maiden (Aqu) Alpha 1st Count Fleet (Aqu) Afleet Again 10th Gotham (Aqu) Mr. Fantasy 3rd Gotham (Aqu) Harlem Rocker 1st Allowance (GP) Divine Park 1st Allowance (Kee) Bernardini 1st Maiden (GP) Scrappy T 3rd Wood Memorial (Aqu)

INSIDE THE WITHERS STAKES: Heavy favorites have been the recent norm as its 4 winter-time editions have had chalks at 1-5, 1-5, 3-5 and 6-5 (with 3 of those winning, but 1-5 El Kabeir finishing second a year ago). Since moving to January, none of its 4 editions has been won wire to wire, while Far From Over and Revolutionary notably scored in last-to-first fashion.

92

EL CAMINO REAL DERBY February 13, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Northern California’s only graded stakes en route to the Triple Crown, the El Camino Real Derby gets its field from the listed California Derby at Golden Gate, from class risers at the meet and a smattering of second-tier Santa Anita sophomores. It’s among the earliest 1 1/8 miles distance tests of the season and the mileage here often gives its winners a sense of belonging on the trail as trips extend. It’s the only Triple Crown trail race in the US on Tapeta.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Decidedly down a year ago, the ECR Derby didn’t produce a single Triple Crown starter among its 10 entrants. Metaboss (pictured) rallied to a comfortable win and kept the Santa Anita pipeline going, but disappointed when 6th in the Spiral next time out.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since going to synthetic in 2009, not a single El Camino Real Derby alumnus has hit the board in a Triple Crown race. That’s a far cry from the ‘dirty’ 1990s that included Charismatic, Tabasco Cat, Casual Lies and Cavonnier. Here’s the Tapeta Era’s ledger:

Ky Derby: Chocolate Candy (5th,

’09), Comma to the Top (19th, ’11), Daddy Nose Best (10th, ’12), Dance With Fate (6th, ’14).

Preakness: Daddy Nose Best (9th,

’12).

Belmont: Chocolate Candy (9th, ’09).

93

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 El Camino Real Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 Metaboss Solis Bonde 93 ’14 Tamarando R. Baze Hollendorfer 90 ’13 Dice Flavor Valdivia Gallagher 93 ’12 Daddy Nose Best Leparoux Asmussen 92 ’11 Silver Medallion R. Baze Asmussen 91 ’10 Connemara R. Baze Pletcher 85 ’09 Chocolate Candy R. Baze Hollendorfer 88 ’08 Autism Awareness Contreras Vallejo 94 (d) ’07 Bwana Bull R. Baze Hollendorfer 93 (d) ’06 Cause to Believe R. Baze Hollendorfer 99 (d) Winning Preps for Last 10 El Camino Real Derby Winners ’15 Metaboss 1st Maiden (SA) ’14 Tamarando 2nd Cal Cup Derby (SA) ’13 Dice Flavor 3rd Allowance (SA) ’12 Daddy Nose Best 1st Eddie Logan (SA) ’11 Silver Medallion 1st Eddie Logan (SA) ’10 Connemara 2nd California Derby (GG) ’09 Chocolate Candy 1st California Derby (GG) ’08 Autism Awareness 1st Maiden (GG) ’07 Bwana Bull 1st California Derby (GG) ’06 Cause to Believe 2nd San Miguel (SA) INSIDE THE EL CAMINO REAL DERBY: With a record 9 wins in this race, jockey Russell Baze has tallied 7 of those in just the last 11 editions. The last 5 winners all came north from Santa Anita, 4 of those coming off of turf preps most recently. Since going to Tapeta in 2009, all 7 El Camino Real Derby winners have rallied from at least fourth place or farther behind in the early going.

94

SAM F. DAVIS February 13, 2016

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Held 4 weeks before the Tampa Bay Derby, the Sam F. Davis is the track’s lone 2-turn prep for its spring main event. But the Davis has not been part of the Kentucky Derby qualifying points chase, and could struggle to attract the kind of stars it once did with The Cliff's Edge, Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday in the mid-2000s.

The Davis also benefitted for a time when the Fountain of Youth was elongated to 9 furlongs and the classier Florida shippers from Gulfstream Park found this spot more suitable early in the season at 1-1/16 miles. Inaugurated in 1981, only 5 Davis winners have gone on to win the Tampa Bay Derby, and none since 2001.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: In just his second lifetime start, debut maiden winner Ocean Knight

(pictured) beat a field of 11 rivals that included eventual Preakness 3rd-place finisher Divining Rod. The winner flopped upon his return in the Tampa Bay Derby (7th).

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Davis alumni to contest the Triple Crown races since ’08:

Ky Derby: Vinceremos (17th, ’14),

Falling Sky (19th, ’13), Prospective (18th, ’12), Musket Man (3rd, ’09), General Quarters (10th, ’09), Big Truck (18th, ’08), Smooth Air (11th, ’08), Z Humor (14th, ’08).

Preakness: Divining Rod (3rd, ’15),

Schoolyard Dreams (9th, ’10), Musket Man (3rd, ’09), General Quarters (9th, ’09).

Belmont: Uptowncharlybrown (12th, ’10).

95

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Davis Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) I. Ortiz McLaughlin 95 Ocean Knight Vinceremos Prado Pletcher 92 Falling Sky J.Espinoza Terranova 92 Battle Hardened Leparoux Kenneally 91 Brethren Dominguez Pletcher 94 Rule Velazquez Pletcher 104 General Quarters Lopez M. Miller 100 Fierce Wind C. Velasquez Zito 96 Any Given Saturday Velazquez Pletcher 97 Bluegrass Cat Velazquez Pletcher 101

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Davis Stakes Winners 1st Maiden (Aqu) Ocean Knight Vinceremos 1st Maiden (GP) Falling Sky 1st Allowance (Tam) Battle Hardened 2nd Maiden (GP) Brethren 1st Allowance (CD) Rule 1st Delta Jackpot (DeD) General Quarters 2nd Pasco (Tam) Fierce Wind 1st Allowance (GP) Any Given Saturday 2nd Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) Bluegrass Cat 1st Remsen (Aqu)

INSIDE THE SAM F. DAVIS STAKES: 10 straight Davis winners exited a 1st or 2nd-place finish most recently, so a “now” horse gets an edge over one looking for a rebound. There’s a real tendency for the public to over-value a race over the always-labeled “quirky” Tampa Bay Downs surface, so be sure to note that only 2 of the past 10 Davis winners had tuned-up locally. Forwardly placed horses have dominated the recent history of this race.

SOUTHWEST STAKES

96

February 15, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The second of Oaklawn’s 4 route preps leading up to the Triple Crown, the Southwest takes place President’s Day Monday and assumes center stage nationally.

The first graded stakes on the local menu, it was extended to 1-1/16 miles from a flat mile in 2013.

Unlike the Smarty Jones Stakes before it, the Southwest utilizes the full stretch and traditional finish line.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Smarty Jones winner Far Right pulled a carbon copy with another rail rally. Under Mike Smith, he collared favored Mr. Z and outkicked The Truth Or Else.

Huge fields are the norm since 2008 – each year featuring 10 or more starters (11 a year ago; split divisions in 2012 with 21 total entrants). D. Wayne Lukas (pictured) has saddled beaten favorites in the past 2 editions (Mr. Z and Strong Mandate, 3rd and 2nd, respectively).

Ky Derby: Smarty Jones (1st, ’04),

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Recent Southwest alumni include elder stars Will Take Charge, Caleb’s Posse and Flat Out, but it’s also produced strongly in the TC with placings since ’04 by: Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Hard Spun (2nd, ’07), Denis of Cork (3rd, ’08).

Preakness: Smarty Jones (1st,

’04), Hard Spun (3rd, ’07), Ride on Curlin (2nd, ’14).

Belmont: Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04).

97

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Southwest Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Smith Moquett 93 ’15 Far Right ’14 Tapiture Santana Asmussen 99 ’13 Super Ninety Nine Bejarano Baffert 101 ’12 Castaway Bejarano Baffert 97 ’12 Secret Circle Bejarano Baffert 103 ’11 Archarcharch Court Fires 93 ’10 Conveyance Garcia Baffert 102 ’09 Old Fashioned Dominguez L. Jones 97 ’08 Denis of Cork Albarado D. Carroll 99 ’07 Teuflesberg Elliott Sanders 102 ’06 Lawyer Ron McKee R. Holthus 99 Winning Preps for Last 10 Southwest Stakes Winners 1st Smarty Jones (OP) ’15 Far Right ’14 Tapiture 1st Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) ’13 Super Ninety Nine 1st Allowance (SA) ’12 Castaway 1st Maiden (SA) ’12 Secret Circle 2nd Sham (SA) ’11 Archarcharch 4th Smarty Jones (OP) ’10 Conveyance 1st San Rafael (SA) ’09 Old Fashioned 1st Remsen (Aqu) ’08 Denis of Cork 1st Allowance (FG) ’07 Teuflesberg 3rd LeComte (FG) ’06 Lawyer Ron 1st Risen Star (LaD) INSIDE THE SOUTHWEST STAKES: Be alert for the possibility of an off track this time of year as we had sloppy/sealed surfaces for the Southwest in 2013 and 2015. Bob Baffert waited for later races in the series to appear at Oaklawn the past 2 years, but note his last 2 Southwest invasions netted 3 victories (sweeping split divisions in 2012, and winning again in 2013).

SAN VICENTE STAKES

98

February 15, 2016

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Because sprint races no longer are eligible as Ky Derby qualifiers, the 7-furlong San Vicente could struggle to maintain its historical relevance. The last 6 editions have not topped 7 entrants, and mostly have featured sprinters. But Texas Red a year ago and potentially Nyquist this year are trying to change that. Those in the gate have been met with dominance from trainers Bob Baffert and John Sadler, who have combined to win this race the last 8 years and 11 of the last 13. Baffert has won the race 9 times since 1997.

win in this race in 5 years. Lord Nelson held off the late rally of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red in that rival’s 3YO debut as 3-5 favorite.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: The Baffert/Sadler dominance continued when Lord Nelson (pictured) gave the former his 4th

’12), Sway Away (12th, ’11), Imperialism (5th, ’04).

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Silver Charm used the return sprint here to launch his Derby-Preakness campaign of 1997. Since 2004, here’s the diminished run-down:

Ky Derby: Creative Cause (5th, ’12),

Sidney’s Candy (17th, ’10), Sinister Minister (16th, ’06), Don’t Get Mad (4th, ’05), Imperialism (3rd, ‘04).

Preakness: Creative Cause (3rd,

Belmont: None.

99

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 San Vicente Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Baffert 98 ’15 Lord Nelson Bejarano ’14 Kobe’s Back Rosario Sadler 97 ’13 Shakin It Up Flores Baffert 92 ’12 Drill Garcia Baffert 103 ’11 The Factor Garcia Baffert 104 ’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 95 ’09 Evita Argentina Gomez Sadler 93 ’08 Georgie Boy Bejarano Walsh 106 ’07 Noble Court Nakatani Sadler 90 ’06 Too Much Bling Gomez Baffert 98 Winning Preps for Last 10 San Vicente Stakes Winners ’15 Lord Nelson 5th Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD) ’14 Kobe’s Back 10th CashCall Futurity (BHP/Hol) ’13 Shakin It Up 3rd Hollywood Prevue (BHP/Hol) ’12 Drill 5th San Pedro (SA) ’11 The Factor 1st Maiden (SA) ’10 Sidney’s Candy 4th Allowance (SA) ’09 Evita Argentina 2nd Santa Ynez (SA) ’08 Georgie Boy 1st Del Mar Futurity (Dmr) ’07 Noble Court 3rd San Miguel (SA) ’06 Too Much Bling 1st San Miguel (SA) INSIDE THE SAN VICENTE STAKES: 3 straight San Vicente winners were making their first start of the Santa Anita meet. After being moved up on the calendar in 2015, the race returns to its more customary spot in mid-February. 6 of the last 7 San Vicente winners exited defeats and righted the ship with 4 of those coming off of off-the-board finishes.

RISEN STAR STAKES

100

February 20, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Sandwiched an even 5 weeks between the Lecomte Stakes and Louisiana Derby, the Risen Star keeps Fair Grounds hopefuls on an even prep path. It’s 1-1/16 miles distance also splits the difference between its bookend stakes counterparts at 1 mile and 70 yards and 1-1/8 miles. Competition for horses in Florida and Arkansas is real with the Risen Star, which splits its field with the Fountain of Youth and Southwest. Last year’s field of 9 was the smallest in 8 years, so give credit where it’s due to the racing office. The past 2 editions have averaged 6 different last prep locales.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Lecomte winner International Star (pictured) added the 2nd leg of his eventual FG sweep. Imperia, 3-2

favorite in his first start at 3, never fired in fifth. Among those in the Risen Star lineup also were eventual Triple Crown race players War Story and Belmont Stakes third-place finisher Keen Ice. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Risen Star has been on the rise of late with 3 straight years producing a top-3 finisher in a Triple Crown race, even with last year’s winner International Star having been injured:

Ky Derby: Commanding Curve

(2nd, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13),

Preakness: Oxbow (1st, ’13), Mylute (3rd, ’13)

Belmont: Keen Ice (3rd, ’15),

Palace Malice (1st, ’13), Oxbow (2nd, ’13).

101

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Risen Star Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 International Star Mena Maker 97 ’14 Intense Holiday Smith Pletcher 99 ’13 Ive Struck a Nerve Graham Desormeaux 99 ’12 El Padrino Castellano Pletcher 101 ’11 Mucho Macho Man Maragh Ritvo 97 ’10 Discreetly Mine Castellano Pletcher 97 ’09 Friesan Fire G. Saez L. Jones 100 ’08 Pyro Bridgmohan Asmussen 96 ’07 Notional Albarado O’Neill 100 ’06 Lawyer Ron McKee R. Holthus 105 Winning Preps for Last 10 Risen Star Stakes Winners ’15 International Star 1st Lecomte (FG) ’14 Intense Holiday 3rd Holy Bull (GP) ’13 Ive Struck a Nerve 4th Lecomte (FG) ’12 El Padrino 1st Allowance (GP) ’11 Mucho Macho Man 4th Holy Bull (GP) ’10 Discreetly Mine 4th Spectacular Bid (GP) ’09 Friesan Fire 1st Lecomte (FG) ’08 Pyro 2nd BC Juvenile (Mth) ’07 Notional 1st San Rafael (SA) ’06 Lawyer Ron 1st Peninsula Diamond Jo (EvD) INSIDE THE RISEN STAR STAKES: Gulfstream Park shippers are strong here, winning 4 of the last 6 and finishing third last year with Keen Ice. Todd Pletcher trainees own 3 of those wins, though he was noticeably absent from this race in 2015. It’s very notable that the last horse to win the Risen Star while rising in class from a Fair Grounds maiden or allowance was Gradepoint in ’04.

MINE THAT BIRD DERBY

102

February 20, 2016

Derby points: none KEY INGREDIENTS: The former Borderland Derby is the only major local route prep for the rich Sunland Park Derby. At 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, the Mine That Bird Derby gives hopefuls a chance to acclimate to the extreme altitude and dust conditions at Sunland Park that can be troublesome for some shippers.

But without graded status or Kentucky Derby qualifying points, as well as competition in the region from the same-day Risen Star, a second-tier field is expected.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Dominant Sunland Park maiden winner Where’s The Moon (pictured) wheeled back on 8 days’ rest and struck while the iron was hot. The ex-west coaster upset

1-5 favorite Cinco Charlie from the Steve Asmussen barn and would go on to be runner-up in the G3 Sunland Park Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: It almost begins and ends with Mine That Bird, who was 2nd to Scorewithcater in the 2009 edition when named the Borderland Derby. The 2005 renewal produced a Belmont Stakes starter, as well as eventual BC Sprint winner Thor’s Echo for trainer Doug O’Neill.

Ky Derby: Mine That Bird (1st, ’09).

Preakness: Mine That Bird (2nd, ’09).

Belmont: Mine That Bird (3rd, ’09), Southern Africa (8th, ’05).

103

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Mine That Bird Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) 94 ’15 Where’s the Moon E. Gomez Dominguez ’14 Proceed Juarez Marr 98 ’13 Dry Summer Madeira Marr 87 ’12 Isn’t He Clever Medellin Dominguez 91 ’11 Fusa Code J. Shepherd Asmussen 88 ’10 Storming Saint Contreras Dominguez 85 ’09 Scorewithcater M. Baze O’Neill 88 ’08 Poni Colada Juarez Asmussen 92 ’07 Takedown Murphy Asmussen 85 ’06 Indy Wildcat M. Baze Capestro 90 Winning Preps for Last 10 Mine That Bird Derby Winners ’15 Where’s the Moon 1st Maiden (Sun) ’14 Proceed 1st Red Hedeman Mile (Sun) ’13 Dry Summer 1st Allowance (Sun) ’12 Isn’t He Clever 4th Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’11 Fusa Code 3rd Maiden (SA) ’10 Storming Saint 3rd Riley Allison Futurity (Sun) ’09 Scorewithcater 1st Allowance (SA) ’08 Poni Colada 6th Smarty Jones (OP) ’07 Takedown 1st Allowance (Sun) ’06 Indy Wildcat 3rd Maiden (SA) INSIDE THE MINE THAT BIRD DERBY: Horses relocated from the major national circuits have fared well in this race once acclimated with local conditioners, including ’15 winner Where’s The Moon (via Peter Miller), ’14 runner-up Rebranded (via Todd Pletcher) from New York and ’13 winner Dry Summer from California (via Jeff Mullins). Field size has been an issue in recent years with 6-8 starters in each of the last 4 editions. No Mine That Bird / Borderland Derby winner has gone on to win the Sunland Derby to date.

104

FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES February 27, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: What happens when a mid-season prep gets almost as strong as the race into which it is supposed to lead? That’s the tricky balance for the Fountain of Youth Stakes as it pertains to the Florida Derby. Few of major repute at this stage of the spring are shipping out of Gulfstream looking for easier spots and points. Add in the hefty amount of annual maiden and allowance dazzlers at the meet. It’s reasonable to look at the fields for the FoY and Florida Derby in recent years and argue that the prep has been tougher. Plus, at 1-1/16 miles, you’re looking at a hot pace with distance question marks turning up the temps … not to mention the usual attrition of 3YOs hasn’t fully hit the crop at this juncture. With few exceptions, this lately has become one of those ‘win the battle, but lose the war’ kind of races in the big picture.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Upstart, favored at 4-5, was DQ’d to second in a debatable decision that put Itsaknockout up for his 3rd straight win at the meet. Luis Saez (pictured) piloted his 2nd straight FoY winner. The top 4 finishers all would go on to the Kentucky Derby and Frosted would become a backto-back FoY alum to run 2nd in the Belmont Stakes.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Six FoY alumni have won the Derby since 1980. Since 2010, consider these Triple Crown highlights:

Ky Derby: Orb (1st, ’13), Ice Box (2nd ’10).

Preakness: Shackleford (1st, ’11).

Belmont: Frosted (2nd, ’15),

Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Medal Count (3rd, ’14), Orb (3rd, ’13), Union Rags, (1st, ’12).

105

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Fountain of Youth Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 Itsaknockout L. Saez Pletcher 91 ’14 Wildcat Red L. Saez Garoffalo 100 ’13 Orb Velazquez McGaughey 102 ’12 Union Rags Leparoux Matz 103 ’11 Soldat A. Garcia McLaughlin 104 ’10 Eskendereya Velazquez Pletcher 103 ’09 Quality Road Velazquez Pletcher 110 ’08 Cool Coal Man Desormeaux Zito 100 ’07 Scat Daddy Velazquez Pletcher 101 ’06 First Samurai Prado Brothers 102 Winning Preps for Last 10 Fountain of Youth Winners ’15 Itsaknockout 1st Allowance (GP) ’14 Wildcat Red 1st Hutcheson (GP) ’13 Orb 1st Allowance (GP) ’12 Union Rags 2nd BC Juvenile (CD) ’11 Soldat 1st Allowance (GP) ’10 Eskendereya 1st Allowance (GP) ’09 Quality Road 2nd Allowance (GP) ’08 Cool Coal Man 1st Allowance (GP) ’07 Scat Daddy 3rd Holy Bull (GP) ’06 First Samurai 2nd Hutcheson (GP) INSIDE THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES: 6 of the last 8 Fountain of Youth winners rose in class from the local Gulfstream meet’s allowance ranks. In fact, 9 of the last 10 winners exited a top 3 finish already at the meet. With a short run to the first turn and sixteenth pole finish line employed, you don’t want to be far behind at Gulfstream Park over its 9-furlong oval in this race configuration.

Historically, FoY winners have been forwardly placed most often.

106

TAMPA BAY DERBY March 12, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: As the profile of Tampa Bay Downs racing has risen over the past decade, so has its signature race, the Tampa Bay Derby. One of the chief reasons for the TB Derby ascension was that cross-state Gulfstream Park did not run 1-1/16 miles races in the mid-2000s after its track reconfiguration. This forced horsemen who did not want contest the Fountain of Youth at what was then 9 furlongs to seek another spot. Enter, the Tampa Bay Derby, which lured horses like Sun King, Bluegrass Cat, eventual Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and 2YO champion War Pass.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Carpe Diem made his 3YO debut a success, winning this race by 5 lengths as the even-money chalk.

Among those behind him were Danzig Moon and Divining Rod. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: You have to look at this race from 2010-present because of the drain the Fountain of Youth puts on it since moving back to 1-1/16 miles:

Ky Derby: Danzig Moon (5th, ’15),

Carpe Diem (10th, ’15), Vinceremos (17th, ’14), Verrazano (14th, ’13), Java’s War (13th, ’13), Falling Sky (19th, ’13), Prospective (18th, ’12), Watch Me Go (18th, ’11), Super Saver (1st, ’10).

Preakness: Divining Rod (3rd,

’15), Danzig Moon (6th, ’15) Ring Weekend (5th, ’14), Cozzetti (7th, ’12), Super Saver (8th, ’10), Schoolyard Dreams (9th, ’10).

Belmont: Uptowncharlybrown (12th, ’10).

107

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Velazquez Pletcher 96 ’15 Carpe Diem ’14 Ring Weekend Centeno Motion 97 ’13 Verrazano Velazquez Pletcher 100 ’12 Prospective Contreras Casse 95 ’11 Watch Me Go L. Garcia O’Connell 95 ’10 Odysseus Maragh Albertrani 100 ’09 Musket Man Centeno Ryan 93 ’08 Big Truck Coa Tagg 99 ’07 Street Sense Borel Nafzger 105 ’06 Deputy Glitters Lezcano Albertrani 106 Winning Preps for Last 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners ’15 Carpe Diem 2nd BC Juvenile (SA) ’14 Ring Weekend 1st Maiden (GP) ’13 Verrazano 1st Allowance (GP) ’12 Prospective 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’11 Watch Me Go 3rd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’10 Odysseus 1st Allowance (Tam) ’09 Musket Man 3rd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’08 Big Truck 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’07 Street Sense 1st BC Juvenile (CD) ’06 Deputy Glitters 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam) INSIDE THE TAMPA BAY DERBY: The last 4 Tampa Bay Derby winners (and 12 of the last 14) were horses winter-based on Florida’s Atlantic coastline – several of whom traveled to TBD prior for a prep. Only 1 horse has swept the local Sam F. Davis Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby (Burning Roma in 2001). While Todd Pletcher has won this race twice in the last 3 years, he had lost with 5 beaten favorites since 2006. The last TB Derby winner exiting an off-the-board final prep finish was Pineaff in 1999. Most all ran 1-2 most recently before scoring.

SAN FELIPE STAKES

108

March 12, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The San Felipe bridges the Bob Lewis Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, sitting 5 weeks after the former and 4 weeks before the latter. Typically the San Felipe comes up too tough of a race for horses behind the eight ball on timing and trying to make their first start of the year. It’s an annual mix of stakes re-matches as well as class risers from the allowance and maiden ranks at 1-1/16 miles.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 4-5 favorite Dortmund (pictured) led every step in defeating eventual Ky Derby performers Bolo and Ocho Ocho Ocho et al. It was Baffert’s first San Felipe since ’09 and Dortmund would go on to add the Santa Anita Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: What a great history past/present from Affirmed and Sunday Silence, to Bodemeister and California Chrome. Highlights since ‘00 include:

Ky Derby: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st,

’00), Giacomo (1st, ’05), Pioneerof The Nile (2nd, ’09), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), California Chrome (1st, ’14), Dortmund (3rd, ’15).

Preakness: Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd,

’00), Point Given (1st, ’01), Giacomo (3rd, ’05), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Creative Cause (3rd, ’12), California Chrome (1st, ’14).

Belmont: Commendable (1st, ’00),

Point Given (1st, ’01), Medaglia d’Oro (2nd, ’02).

109

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 San Felipe Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 Dortmund Garcia Baffert 102 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 102 ’13 Hear the Ghost Nakatani Hollendorfer 99 ’12 Creative Cause Rosario Harrington 102 ’11 Premier Pegasus A.Quinonez Cho 100 ’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 93 (s) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez Baffert 92 (s) ’08 Georgie Boy M. Baze Walsh 95 (s) ’07 Cobalt Blue Espinoza O’Neill 98 ’06 A.P. Warrior Nakatani Shirreffs 101 Winning Preps for Last 10 San Felipe Stakes Winners ’15 Dortmund 1st Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’14 California Chrome 1st California Cup Derby (SA) ’13 Hear the Ghost 2nd San Pedro (SA) ’12 Creative Cause 3rd San Vicente (SA) ’11 Premier Pegasus 1st Hollywood Prevue (Hol) ’10 Sidney’s Candy 1st San Vicente (SA) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’08 Georgie Boy 1st San Vicente (SA) ’07 Cobalt Blue 1st Allowance (SA) ’06 A.P. Warrior 1st El Camino Real Derby (BM) INSIDE THE SAN FELIPE STAKES: Eight straight San Felipe winners exited Top 3 finishes in stakes races, the vast majority of those coming off of victories. This shows that proven commodities are what you seek in a San Felipe contender. Don’t be afraid of a stretch-out sprinter, though, as 4 consecutive winners from 2010-’13 handled the extra ground. The last 8 times Bob Baffert has had a San Felipe starter, he’s had 2 wins and 6 runner-ups dating back to Roman Ruler’s flop in 2005 when last.

GOTHAM STAKES

110

March 12, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The Jerome-Withers-Gotham-Wood path for the New York sophomore scene has been in play now for 3 seasons. It’s reasonable to ask if there truly are enough quality horses on the circuit to have 4 major preps along the way. The Gulfstream alumni from the Fountain of Youth don’t have enough time to recoup for the Gotham, and those rising players in Florida have a shorter trip to the Tampa Bay Derby to consider. For much of its history, the Gotham was a 1-turn mile in late March, but it no longer must serve as a sole Wood Memorial provider … and doesn’t have any unique quality about it around 2 turns.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 6-5 favorite El Kabeir (pictured) rallied for a cozy score over a field that lacked any significant Florida shippers of repute. Only 5th-place

finisher Tencendur would go on to make an appearance in the TC. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Red Bullet and Easy Goer are the only Gotham winners to post scores in the Triple Crown since Secretariat.

Alumni since 2010 in TC:

Ky Derby: Tencendur (17th, ’15),

Samraat (5th, ’14), Uncle Sigh (14th, ’14), Vyjack (18th, ’13), Overanalyze (11th, ’13), Hansen (9th, ’12), Done Talking (14th, ’12), Stay Thirsty (12th, ’11), Awesome Act (19th, ’10).

Preakness: Tiger Walk (8th, ’12),

Pretension (11th, ’12), Norman Asbjornson (11th, ’11), Yawanna Twist (4th, ’10).

Belmont: Samraat (6th, ’14),

Vyjack (8th, ’13), Overanalyze (7th, ’13), My Adonis (8th, ’12), Stay Thirsty (2nd, ’11).

111

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Gotham Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Terranova 95 ’15 El Kabeir C.C. Lopez ’14 Samraat J. Ortiz Violette 99 ’13 Vyjack Rosario R. Rodriguez 99 ’12 Hansen Dominguez Maker 105 ’11 Stay Thirsty Dominguez Pletcher 95 ’10 Awesome Act Leparoux Noseda 102 ’09 I Want Revenge Talamo Mullins 113 ’08 Visionaire Lezcano Matz 100 ’07 Cowtown Cat Dominguez Pletcher 96 ’06 Like Now Jara McLaughlin 108

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Gotham Stakes Winners El Kabeir 2nd Withers (Aqu) Samraat 1st Withers (Aqu) Vyjack 1st Jerome (Aqu) Hansen 2nd Holy Bull (GP) Stay Thirsty 5th BC Juvenile (CD) Awesome Act 4th BC Juvenile Turf (SA) I Want Revenge 3rd Lewis Memorial (SA) Visionaire 3rd Risen Star (FG) Cowtown Cat 3rd Swale (GP) Like Now 1st Capossela (Aqu)

INSIDE THE GOTHAM STAKES: 3 straight winners from the local winter program have scored since the Aqueduct 3YO stakes schedule changed – significant when you consider that 5 straight Gotham winners prior were from out of town. The rise of the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Southwest at Oaklawn as middledistance alternatives also has impacted the quality and quantity of potential shippers.

112

REBEL STAKES March 19, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Arguably the most impactful prep of the spring the past decade, check out a winner’s roll featuring American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Lookin At Lucky, Will Take Charge, The Factor and Secret Circle. Its field primarily comes from the Southwest Stakes, local ALW/MSWs and Californians. Rebel alumni have 4 weeks until the Arkansas Derby, 7 weeks before the Kentucky Derby and 9 weeks before the Preakness – the latter a race in which they’ve produced 6 Preakness winners since ‘04.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: American Pharoah rolled in his seasonal return from a layoff and injury to give Bob Baffert (pictured) his 5th Rebel win in 6 years. He wired the field by 6-1/4 lengths as the 2-5 chalk over Madefromlucky.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Rebel alumni have been strong in all Triple Crown races since ‘04, but have been exceptional on Preakness Day. Consider highlighted placings:

Ky Derby: Smarty Jones (1st, ’04),

Afleet Alex (3rd, ’05), Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Curlin (3rd, ’07), American Pharoah (1st, ’15).

Preakness: Smarty Jones (1st,

’04), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Curlin (1st, ’07), Lookin At Lucky (1st, ’10), Oxbow (1st, ’13), Ride on Curlin (2nd, ’14), American Pharoah (1st ’15).

Belmont: Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04),

Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Curlin (2nd, ’07), Anak Nakal (3rd, ’08), Atigun (3rd, ’12), Oxbow (2nd, ’13), American Pharoah (1st, ’15).

113

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Rebel Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 99 Hoppertunity Smith Baffert 99 Will Take Charge Court Lukas 101 Secret Circle Bejarano Baffert 97 The Factor Garcia Baffert 106 Lookin At Lucky Gomez Baffert 102 Win Willy Berry M. Robertson 104 Sierra Sunset Emigh Bonde 103 Curlin Albarado Asmussen 101 Lawyer Ron McKee Holthus 98

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Rebel Stakes Winners American Pharoah 1st FrontRunner (SA) Hoppertunity 4th Risen Star (FG) Will Take Charge 6th Southwest (OP) Secret Circle 1st Southwest (OP) The Factor 1st San Vicente (SA) Lookin At Lucky 1st Cash Call Futurity (Hol) Win Willy 1st Allowance (OP) Sierra Sunset 2nd Southwest (OP) Curlin 1st Maiden (GP) Lawyer Ron 1st Southwest (OP)

INSIDE THE REBEL STAKES: Six straight Rebel winners have gone on to add major G1 stakes victories, including a Triple Crown sweep, 1-2 finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and victories in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. 7 of the last 10 Rebel winners exited victories in their most-recent prep, while 12 straight were based/trained either at Oaklawn or in California.

114

SUNLAND DERBY March 20, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: New Mexico’s only Kentucky Derby qualifying prep, the Sunland Derby has been a favorite stop for west coast horsemen traveling east since its 2003 debut. Names like Baffert, O’Neill, Bonde, Machowsky and Callaghan have made successful raids from California.

It’s offered at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, over a very fast racing surface that can fool speed-figure players and those following the stopwatch.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Overwhelming 1-5 favorite Firing Line (pictured) shipped from the west coast to destroy 6 overmatched rivals by 14+ lengths.

He took control of a fast pace duel and drew away while never in danger. None of his opponents continued on to the Triple Crown series.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: In just 12 years, the Sunland Derby has 2 TC race winners – Mine That Bird and Ruler On Ice, not to mention a pair of runner-ups in the last 2 years – Firing Line ’15 Derby and Commissioner ’14 Belmont. Its alumni in the TC all-time:

Ky Derby: Firing Line (2nd, ’15),

Chitu (9th, ’14), Daddy Nose best (10th, ’12), Twice the Appeal (10th, ’11), Conveyance (‘15th, ’10), Mine That Bird (1st, ’09), Advice (13th, ’09), Sort It Out (17th, ’05).

Preakness: Firing Line (7th, ’15),

Govenor Charlie (8th, ’13), Daddy Nose Best (9th, ’12), Astrology (3rd, ’11), Mine That Bird (2nd, ’09).

Belmont: Commissioner (2nd, ’14)

Ruler On Ice (1st, ’11), Mine That Bird (3rd, ’09), Southern Africa (8th, ’05).

115

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Sunland Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Stevens Callaghan 101 ’15 Firing Line ’14 Chitu Garcia Baffert 103 ’13 Govenor Charlie Garcia Baffert 99 ’12 Daddy Nose Best Leparoux Asmussen 101 ’11 Twice the Appeal Reyes Bonde 95 ’10 Endorsement Albarado Ritter 99 ’09 Kelly Leak Smith Machowsky 92 ’08 Liberty Bull G.Melancon Amoss 91 ’07 Song of Navarone Espinoza Dominguez 104 ’06 Wanna Runner Espinoza Baffert 99

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Sunland Derby Winners 2nd Lewis Memorial (SA) Firing Line Chitu 2nd Lewis Memorial (SA) Govenor Charlie 1st Maiden (SA) Daddy Nose Best 1st El Camino Real Derby (GG) Twice the Appeal 4th Turf Paradise Derby (TuP) Endorsement 1st Maiden (OP) Kelly Leak 1st Allowance (SA) Liberty Bull 3rd Southwest (OP) Song of Navarone 3rd Sham (SA) Wanna Runner 5th El Camino Real Derby (BM)

INSIDE THE SUNLAND DERBY: Horses who wintered in California have won 6 of the last 7 editions of this race, including the last 5 in a row. Look for runners in solid form with 6 of the last 7 victors exiting a Top 2 prep finish, and 7 of the last 10 winners coming out of stakes efforts. Henry Dominguez is the only locally based horseman to win the Sunland Derby in the past decade. Those tuning up in the local Mine That Bird Derby have struggled to handle the shippers.

116

LOUISIANA DERBY March 26, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The Louisiana Derby can make a case as one of America’s fastestgrowing Triple Crown preps. It’s history is long and rich, but in the past 6 years since being pushed later on the calendar as a final prep and extended to 1-1/8 miles, it’s seen a renaissance.

The taxing Fair Grounds stretch of 1,346 feet actually is more than 111 feet longer than Churchill Downs, providing a realistic dress rehearsal. The Louisiana Derby gets its field from the Lecomte and Risen Star locally as well as shippers from Florida who often are being separated from other stablemates in that region.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: International Star notched the first Lecomte-Risen Star-Louisiana

Derby sweep since Friesan Fire in ’09 and only the 4th ever to do so.

In his wake were a trio of eventual Kentucky Derby starters – Keen Ice, War Story and Mr. Z. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since changing its date and distance in 2010, the La Derby has taken off in terms of production. At least 1 alumnus has hit a TC race trifecta each year except ’12.

Ky Derby: Commanding Curve

(2nd, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13), Revolutionary (3rd, ’13), Nehro (2nd, 11), Mucho Macho Man (3rd, ’11).

Preakness: Mylute (3rd, ’13).

Belmont: Keen Ice (3rd, ’15),

Palace Malice (1st, ’13), Drosselmeyer (1st, ’10), Fly Down (2nd, ’10).

117

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Louisiana Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 International Star Mena Maker 99 ’14 Vicar’s in Trouble Napravnik Maker 104 ’13 Revolutionary Castellano Pletcher 105 ’12 Hero of Order Martin Dorochenko 95 ’11 Pants On Fire Napravnik Breen 97 ’10 Mission Impazible Maragh Pletcher 97 ’09 Friesan Fire G. Saez L. Jones 103 ’08 Pyro Bridgmohan Asmussen 100 ’07 Circular Quay Velazquez Pletcher 105 ’05 High Limit Dominguez Frankel 106

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’05

Winning Preps for Last 10 Louisiana Derby Winners International Star 1st Risen Star (FG) Vicar’s in Trouble 3rd Risen Star (FG) Revolutionary 1st Withers (Aqu) Hero of Order 4th Black Gold (FG) Pants On Fire 6th Risen Star (FG) Mission Impazible 3rd Southwest (OP) Friesan Fire 1st Risen Star (FG) Pyro 1st Risen Star (FG) Circular Quay 5th Risen Star (FG) High Limit 1st Allowance (Del)

INSIDE THE LOUISIANA DERBY: 9 straight La Derby winners exited stakes bids, while 6 of the last 9 competed in the Risen Star on the local path. In the 6 years since moving the date and distance, Todd Pletcher trainees own 2 wins and 2 seconds, including Intense Holiday and Stanford as the last 2 runner-ups. The Louisiana Derby pacesetter has finished first and second the past 2 years.

118

FLORIDA DERBY April 2, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The eastern place to be on the Triple Crown trail, Gulfstream’s 3YO series spans from the first of the New Year through his prime real estate 5 weeks out from the Kentucky Derby. Historically, only the Blue Grass (23) at Keeneland has produced more rose bearers all-time than the Florida Derby (22). The past decade has seen Barbaro, Big Brown and Orb make their way to Louisville via the Florida Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The past 2 editions have been far off its historical norm over the past decade. While 3 of the top 4 finishers a year ago moved on to Louisville, they managed only 6th, 9th and 18th and didn’t impact any of the Triple Crown races. Consider that against these since 2006:

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: It was a Todd Pletcher encore as Materiality did exactly what stablemate Constitution pulled off the year before – run his record to 3for-3 lifetime by winning this race.

Upstart, favored at 1-1, chased futily throughout in second.

’13), Shackleford (1st, ’11), First Dude (2nd, ’10), Big Brown (1st, ’08).

Ky Derby: Orb (1st, ’13), Ice Box (2nd, ’10), Big Brown (1st, ’08), Barbaro (1st, ’06).

Preakness: Itsmyluckyday (2nd,

Belmont: Orb (3rd, ’13), Union

Rags (1st, ’12), First Dude (3rd, ’10), Dunkirk (2nd, ’09), Da’Tara (1st, ’08), Sunriver (3rd, ’06).

119

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Florida Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Velazquez Pletcher 105 Materiality Constitution Castellano Pletcher 97 Orb Velazquez McGaughey 97 Take Charge Indy Borel Byrne 104 Dialed In Leparoux Zito 101 Ice Box Lezcano Zito 101 Quality Road Velazquez J. Jerkens 103 Big Brown Desormeaux R. Dutrow 110 Scat Daddy Prado Pletcher 101 Barbaro Prado Matz 104

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Florida Derby Winners Materiality 1st Overnight stakes (GP) Constitution 1st Allowance (GP) Orb 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) Take Charge Indy 2nd Allowance (GP) Dialed In 2nd Allowance (GP) Ice Box 5th Fountain of Youth (GP) Quality Road 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) Big Brown 1st Allowance (GP) Scat Daddy 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) Barbaro 1st Holy Bull (GP)

INSIDE THE FLORIDA DERBY: Since Empire Maker shipped east to win this race in 2003, locally based horses have dominated the Florida Derby. Don’t look for big rebounds here – it’s about the ‘now’ horse with 9 of the last 10 winners coming off 1st or 2nd-place finishes. Also, don’t be afraid of a hot class riser. The last 9 editions of this race have been won by 5 class risers and 4 alumni of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Fields of 8-10 have been the norm of late.

120

SPIRAL STAKES April 2, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The first race in Kentucky to offer Derby qualifying points in 2016, the Spiral has been moved this year to the first weekend in April and will go head-to-head with the Florida Derby in the slot 5 weeks out from the run for the roses. In recent years, the Spiral had been held 2 weeks earlier. Only the Spiral and El Camino Real Derby offer qualifying points for races held over synthetic surfaces. Since Keeneland’s move to dirt, the Spiral is the only key Polytrack prep.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Dubai Sky notched his 4th straight win, adding to the grassy Kitten’s Joy at Gulfstream, by scoring a 7-1 upset in what wound up his final start of the year for Bill Mott (pictured). None of his 10 rivals competed in the Triple Crown.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: From 1990-’93, the Spiral enjoyed its heyday with consecutive Triple Crown series race winners Summer Squall, Hansel, Lil E Tee & Prairie Bayou having ventured through Florence. But things went cold from ’94-’05, so let’s examine the highlights of the Poly era, ’06present.

Ky Derby: Hard Spun (2nd, ‘07),

Animal Kingdom (1st, ‘11), Went the Day Well (4th, ’12).

Preakness: Hemingway’s Key (3rd,

’06), Hard Spun (3rd, ‘07), Macho Again (2nd, ’08), Animal Kingdom (2nd, ’08).

Belmont: Hard Spun (4th, ‘07).

121

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Spiral Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) J. Lezcano Mott 103 Dubai Sky We Miss Artie Velazquez Pletcher 93 Black Onyx Bravo Breen 96 Went the Day Well Velazquez Motion 103 Animal Kingdom Garcia Motion 97 Dean’s Kitten Velasquez Maker 101 Hold Me Back Desormeaux Mott 101 Adriano Prado Motion 101 Hard Spun Pino L. Jones 106 With a City Blanc Maker 101

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Spiral Stakes Winners 1st Kitten’s Joy (GP) Dubai Sky We Miss Artie 8th Fountain of Youth (GP) Black Onyx 1st Allowance (GP) Went the Day Well 1st Maiden (GP) Animal Kingdom 2nd Allowance (GP) Dean’s Kitten 2nd Palm Beach (GP) Hold Me Back 5th Remsen (Aqu) Adriano 9th Fountain of Youth (GP) Hard Spun 4th Southwest (OP) With a City 8th John Battaglia Memorial (TP)

INSIDE THE SPIRAL STAKES: 7 of the last 8 Spiral winners were horses who had raced on the turf at Gulfstream during the winter, including 6 straight. Meanwhile, 8 of the last 9 Spiral winners have been single-digit odds in a race with a longshot’s misnomer. Despite the move to Polytrack in 2006, the list of winning trainers in this race reads like a Who’s Who nationally with Graham Motion, Bill Mott and Mike Maker accounting for 7 of the 10 scores.

122

SANTA ANITA DERBY April 9, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: A galvanizing series of local preps builds perfectly to the 1-1/8 miles Santa Anita Derby – where the west’s best most often play. An occasional shipper from Northern California may appear, but this race typically comes down to the alumni of the Bob Lewis Memorial and the San Felipe. In the last 5 years, trainers Doug O’Neill and Bob Baffert have horded 4 of the victories. Speed kills on the west coast and the SA Derby is most often won on or near the front.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Dortmund (pictured) won his 6th straight race and added to his Los Al Futurity and San Felipe scores with a wire-to-wire performance as the 3-5 favorite. The west’s top rivals hit the road instead of facing off – American Pharoah (Oaklawn) and Firing Line (Sunland). Only 1

of Dortmund’s 5 rivals, Bolo, advanced to the TC. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since ’11 return to dirt, TC bids:

Ky Derby: Dortmund (3rd, ’15),

Bolo (12th, ’15), California Chrome (1st, ’14), Goldencents (17th, ’13), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Creative Cause (5th, ’12), Liaison (6th, ’12), Midnight Interlude (16th, ’11), Comma to the Top (19th, ’11)

Preakness: Dortmund (4th, ’15),

California Chrome (1st, ’14), Candy Boy (13th, ’14), Goldencents (5th, ’13), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Creative Cause (3rd, ’12), Midnight Interlude (3rd, ’11), Mr. Commons (8th, ’11)

Belmont: California Chrome (4th,

’14), Paynter (2nd, ’12)

123

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Santa Anita Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 Dortmund Garcia Baffert 106 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 106 ’13 Goldencents Krigger O’Neill 106 ’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 98 ’11 Midnight Interlude Espinoza Baffert 98 ’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 99 (s) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez Baffert 95 (s) ’08 Colonel John Nakatani Harty 98 (s) ’07 Tiago Smith Shirreffs 100 ’06 Brother Derek Solis Hendricks 105 Winning Preps for Last 10 Santa Anita Derby Winners ’15 Dortmund 1st San Felipe (SA) ’14 California Chrome 1st San Felipe (SA) ’13 Goldencents 4th San Felipe (SA) ’12 I’ll Have Another 1st Lewis Memorial (SA) ’11 Midnight Interlude 1st Maiden (SA) ’10 Sidney’s Candy 1st San Felipe (SA) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st San Felipe (SA) ’08 Colonel John 1st Sham (SA) ’07 Tiago 7th Lewis Memorial (SA) ’06 Brother Derek 1st Lewis Memorial/Santa Catalina (SA) INSIDE THE SANTA ANITA DERBY: 10 straight winners exited local SA preps, including 9 of the last 10 from local stakes bids. 5 of the last 7 winners tuned up in the San Felipe with 7 of the last 8 exiting winning prep races. 5 straight winners on dirt all raced within 2 lengths of the early lead. Tiago, Castledale and Buddy Gil are the only SA Derby dirt winners in the last 20 years to rally from more than 4 lengths back to score.

WOOD MEMORIAL

124

April 9, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: While Frosted, Wicked Strong and Normandy Invasion have knocked on the door the past 3 seasons, it’s astounding to think the Wood has not produced a Kentucky Derby Top 3 finisher since Funny Cide and Empire Maker ran 1-2 in 2003.

Sure, there’s been bad luck, too – namely injuries to Eskendereya and I Want Revenge. But it’s no coincidence that since the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby dates moved to become last-stop preps and not mid-season preps, the Wood has fallen from grandeur.

The Wood shares the weekend with the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass as fixtures 4 weeks out from the first Saturday in May. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Favored Daredevil chased a slow pace and tired while Frosted

(pictured) charged home late to win by 2 lengths and underscore the Florida strength over the NY winter faction. Runner-up Tencendur also moved on to the Kentucky Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since the Florida Derby’s ’06 rise, the best the Wood has offered in the Triple Crown has been:

Ky Derby: Frosted (4th, ’15),

Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Normandy Invasion (4th, ’13), Tale of Ekati (4th, ’08).

Preakness: Social Inclusion (3rd,

’14), Jackson Bend (3rd, ’10).

Belmont: Frosted (2nd, ’15),

Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Street Life (4th, ’12), Anak Nakal (3rd, ’08).

125

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Wood Memorial Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) 107 ’15 Frosted Rosario McLaughlin ’14 Wicked Strong Maragh J. Jerkens 103 ’13 Verrazano Velazquez Pletcher 100 ’12 Gemologist Castellano Pletcher 104 ’11 Toby’s Corner Castro Motion 97 ’10 Eskendereya Velazquez Pletcher 102 ’09 I Want Revenge Talamo Mullins 109 ’08 Tale Of Ekati Prado Tagg 100 ’07 Nobiz Like Shobiz C. Velasquez Tagg 102 ’06 Bob And John Gomez Baffert 103

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Wood Memorial Winners Frosted 4th Fountain of Youth (GP) Wicked Strong 4th Allowance (GP) Verrazano 1st Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) Gemologist 1st Allowance (GP) Toby’s Corner 3rd Gotham (Aqu) Eskendereya 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) I Want Revenge 1st Gotham (Aqu) Tale Of Ekati 6th Louisiana Derby (FG) Nobiz Like Shobiz 3rd Fountain of Youth (GP) Bob And John 3rd San Felipe (SA)

INSIDE THE WOOD MEMORIAL: 5 of the last 6 Wood winners shipped north from Florida to score, including 4 straight. Favorites have won 4 of the last 7. Entering off a win isn’t a must either, as 6 of the last 10 winners lost their prior starts. Todd Pletcher’s deep bench has won 3 of the last 6 Wood Memorial offerings via Florida.

The Gotham Stakes has produced only 2 Wood winners in the past decade.

126

BLUE GRASS STAKES April 9, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Placed 4 weeks out from the Derby for the second straight year, the Blue Grass saw its return to dirt a year ago lure mixed reviews. It drew headliner Carpe Diem, but only 8 entries overall (this after averaging a whopping 11.5 in the Polytrack era). It lost some of its uniqueness in surface and timing, now sitting closer to established, mid-spring preps than before and up against national competition for horses that weekend. The Flordians who head north can choose equally between the Blue Grass and sameday Wood Memorial with an eye on the easiest spot.

and added a 3-length victory at 2-5 odds. Four runners would move on to the Kentucky Derby. Notably, the top 2 Blue Grass finishers exited the Tampa Bay Derby.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: G1 Breeders’ Futurity winner Carpe Diem (pictured) returned to the scene of his signature 2YO score

Belmont: First Dude (3rd, ’10),

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Its alumni flopped in the ’15 Derby, finishing 5th, 10th, 11th and 14th.

Here’s how the previous, 8-year Polytrack era highlights had fared:

Ky Derby: Street Sense (1st, ’07),

Paddy O’Prado (3rd, ’10), Dullahan (3rd, ’12).

Preakness: Street Sense (2nd,

’07), First Dude (2nd, ’10).

Brilliant Speed (3rd, ’11), Palace Malice (1st, ’13), Medal Count (3rd, ’14).

127

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Blue Grass Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Velazquez Pletcher 102 (d) ’15 Carpe Diem ’14 Dance With Fate Nakatani Eurton 99 ’13 Java’s War Leparoux McPeek 96 ’12 Dullahan Desormeaux Romans 102 ’11 Brilliant Speed Rosario Albertrani 97 ’10 Stately Victor A. Garcia Maker 99 ’09 General Quarters Coa T. McCarthy 98 ’08 Monba Prado Pletcher 97 ’07 Dominican Bejarano D. Miller 98 ’06 Sinister Minister Gomez Baffert 116 (d) Winning Preps for Last 10 Blue Grass Stakes Winners ’15 Carpe Diem 1st Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’14 Dance With Fate 2nd El Camino Real Derby (GG) ’13 Java’s War 2nd Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’12 Dullahan 2nd Palm Beach (GP) ’11 Brilliant Speed 2nd Hallandale Beach (GP) ’10 Stately Victor 5th Allowance (GP) ’09 General Quarters 5th Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’08 Monba 12th Fountain of Youth (GP) ’07 Dominican 1st Rushaway (TP) ’06 Sinister Minister 2nd California Derby (GG) INSIDE THE BLUE GRASS STAKES: It’s been a quarter-century since Strike the Gold swept the Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby in 1991. And no Blue Grass winner has won any Triple Crown race since Prairie Bayou’s 1993 Preakness. Even so, a record 23 Blue Grass alumni have worn the roses in Louisville, the last of which was Street Sense in 2007. Tampa Bay Derby alumni have won 3 of the last 7 editions, including scores on both Polytrack and dirt. 7 of the last 8 winners wintered in Florida.

128

FEDERICO TESIO STAKES April 9, 2015

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Traditionally Pimlico’s spring prep to the Preakness, the Federico Tesio moves to Laurel Park this year and also moves up a few weeks on the calendar to a busy April 9 slot. That’s the day of the Wood, Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass. With no qualifying points to the Derby, this will be a spot for a late bloomer to perhaps look ahead to the Preakness or Belmont – ala Ruler On Ice in 2011, who would eventually win the Belmont Stakes.

The Tesio also stretches out to 11/8 miles.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Five locals took on Kiaran McLaughlin’s well-bred NYRA shipper and 6-5 favorite All Hands in his stakes debut, but it was dueling Bodhisattva (pictured)

who proved best for Jose Corrales & Trevor McCarthy.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Preakness starters have been produced in back-to-back years after failing to do so between 2009-‘13. Of its last 13 editions, it’s offered a Belmont winner and 2 Preakness placings. Consider:

Ky Derby : None.

Preakness: Bodhisattva (8th, ’15), Kid Cruz (8th, ’14), Icabad Crane (3rd, ’08), Xchanger (8th, ’07), Malibu Moonshine (8th, ’05), Water Cannon (10th, ’04), Cherokee’s Boy (8th, ’03), Magic Weisner (2nd, ’02).

Belmont: Matuszak (DNF, ’14),

Ruler On Ice (1st, ’11), Miner’s Escape (10th, ’09), Icabad Crane (8th, ’08).

129

’15 ’14 ’13 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Tesio Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Bodhisattva McCarthy Corrales 95 Kid Cruz Pimentel L. Rice 90 Abstraction Goncalves D. Carroll 95 Concealed Identity Russell E. Gaudet 96 Bank The Eight Pino T. Dutrow 91 Miner’s Escape Garcia Zito 96 Icabad Crane Rose Motion 94 Xchanger Domingez Shuman 102 Ah Day Fogelsonger Leatherbury 108 Malibu Moonshine Hamilton Leatherbury 98

’15 ’14 ’13 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05

Winning Preps for Last 10 Tesio Stakes Winners Bodhisattva 2nd Private Terms (Lrl) Kid Cruz 1st Private Terms (Lrl) Abstraction 1st Maiden (FG) Concealed Identity 1st Allowance (Pim) Bank The Eight 1st Allowance (Prx) Miner’s Escape 1st Maiden (GP) Icabad Crane 3rd Rushaway (TP) Xchanger 7th Rebel (OP) Ah Day 1st Allowance (Lrl) Malibu Moonshine 1st Private Terms (Lrl)

INSIDE THE FEDERICO TESIO STAKES: The last locally based post-time favorite was Etude in 2007. Favorites have won the Tesio 5 times in the last 10 editions. The Tesio has been a successful stop for Parx-based runners who don’t have any stakes of note for 3-year-olds this time of year, and they’ve fared well here in recent years in limited engagements.

The Maryland Jockey Club at

Winter/Spring Meet

January 1 – February 15

Racing Friday thru Monday

March 11 – May 8

Racing Friday thru Sunday

132

ARKANSAS DERBY April 16, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Fourth race in Oaklawn’s series, it’s impossible to undervalue the $5M Centennial Season Bonus in ’04 captured by Smarty Jones and this race’s ascension. What’s become unique is that the Arkansas Derby is the only major prep 3 weeks in front of the Kentucky Derby in what used to be the busiest slot.

Not only is that toughening horses for the Kentucky Derby, but 4 straight Preakness Top-2 finishes can’t be ignored when you think about wheeling back on short rest.

Big fields, huge crowds and prerace hub-bub serve as the trail’s most realistic dress rehearsal.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 1-9 shot American Pharoah left no doubt in an 8-length score while sitting second early and pouncing to his second straight raid of the meet after winning the Rebel.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The highlights since ’04 have been unparalleled, including ’15 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah:

Ky Derby: American Pharoah (1st,

’15), Danza (3rd, ’14), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Nehro (2nd ’11), Super Saver (1st, ’10), Curlin (3rd, ’07), Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Afleet Alex (3rd, ’05), Smarty Jones (1st, ’04).

Preakness: American Pharoah

(1st, ’15), Ride On Curlin (2nd, ’14), Oxbow (1st, ’13), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Curlin (1st, ’07), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Smarty Jones (1st, ’04).

Belmont: American Pharoah (1st,

’15), Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Atigun (3rd, ’12), Summer Bird (1st, ’09), Curlin (2nd, ’07), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Andromeda’s Hero (2nd, ’05), Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04).

133

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Arkansas Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 102 ’14 Danza Bravo Pletcher 104 ’13 Overanalyze Bejarano Pletcher 96 ’12 Bodemeister Smith Baffert 105 ’11 Archarcharch Court Fires 99 ’10 Line of David Court Sadler 99 ’09 Papa Clem Bejarano G. Stute 100 ’08 Gayego Smith Lobo 101 ’07 Curlin Albarado Asmussen 102 ’06 Lawyer Ron McKee Holthus 101

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Arkansas Derby Winners American Pharoah 1st Rebel (OP) Danza 3rd Allowance (GP) Overanalyze 5th Gotham (Aqu) Bodemeister 2nd San Felipe (SA) Archarcharch 3rd Rebel (OP) Line of David 1st Allowance (SA) Papa Clem 2nd Louisiana Derby (FG) Gayego 2nd San Felipe (SA) Curlin 1st Rebel (OP) Lawyer Ron 1st Rebel (OP)

INSIDE THE ARKANSAS DERBY: You don’t get any more heavyweight on the trail than to say the last 4 winners have been split among Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher trainees.

Baffert has trained the last 5 Arkansas Derby favorites – The Factor (7th), Bodemeister (1st), War Academy (DNF), Bayern (3rd) and American Pharoah (1st). Of the last 8 winners, only Archarcharch has truly been a locally based horse. Shippers have rebounded off losses with much success of late with 6 of the last 8 winners coming off of a defeat – 5 of those from out of town.

134

ILLINOIS DERBY April 16, 2016

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Despite the 2002 success of its winner War Emblem, the Illinois Derby has not been able to gain traction. Prior to then, it had been a Belmont Stakes lead-in held in late April and May. Recent history has been plagued by a lack of Kentucky Derby qualifying points since 2013. This makes horsemen with legitimate hopefuls opt for other spots, leaving the Illinois Derby to a potential late bloomer for the Preakness as its best-case scenario. The Illinois Derby often is contested on a very fast, speedfavoring track over 1 1/8 miles with a long stretch run at Hawthorne measuring 1,320 feet – longer than any of the TC venues.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: In just his second lifetime start, debut winner Whiskey Ticket (pictured) continued Bob Baffert’s

amazing spring nationwide in 2015.

A fast pace set up a thrilling late run by the winner and nose runner-up Conquest Curlinate.

None of the 8 starters would compete in the TC. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since repositioning on the calendar in ‘01, the Illinois Derby’s TC highlights have been limited. War Emblem made successful headlines in 2002, while Sweetnorthernsaint was the beaten Ky Derby favorite in ‘06. The highlights since ‘01:

Ky Derby: War Emblem (1st, ’02), Denis of Cork (3rd, ’08), Musket Man (3rd, ’09).

Preakness: War Emblem (1st,

’02), Musket Man (3rd, ’09).

Belmont: Denis of Cork (2nd, ’08).

135

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Illinois Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Whiskey Ticket M. Pedroza Baffert 93 Dynamic Impact Mena Casse 95 Departing B. Hernandez Stall 100 Done Talking Russell H. Smith 92 Joe Vann Geroux Pletcher 98 American Lion Flores Harty 101 Musket Man Coa Ryan 104 Recapturetheglory Baird Roussel 104 Cowtown Cat Jara Pletcher 106 Sweetnorthernsaint Desormeaux Trombetta 114

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Illinois Derby Winners Whiskey Ticket 1st Maiden (SA) Dynamic Impact 1st Maiden (OP) Departing 3rd Louisiana Derby (FG) Done Talking 10th Gotham (Aqu) Joe Vann 1st Allowance (Lrl) American Lion 4th San Felipe (SA) Musket Man 1st Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) Recapturetheglory 3rd Allowance (FG) Cowtown Cat 1st Gotham (Aqu) Sweetnorthernsaint 3rd Gotham (Aqu)

INSIDE THE ILLINOIS DERBY: The last 5 editions have been won by horses who prepped on 5 different circuits – Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Fair Grounds, Aqueduct and Laurel. Mark Casse has a win (Dynamic Impact) and narrow second (Conquest Curlinate) in the past 2 years, as does Bob Baffert (Whiskey Ticket, Midnight Hawk).

The Illinois Derby winners in 2013 & 2014 both went on to compete in the Preakness Stakes. Field sizes have shrunk in recent years with 14, 8 and 8 starters in the ‘no-points’ era.

136

LEXINGTON STAKES April 16, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Last year’s Lexington was moved a week earlier on the calendar and returned to dirt for the first time since 2006. While the 3-week window to the Kentucky Derby didn’t produce a runner in Louisville, it allowed 5 weeks to prepare for the Preakness. The Lexington is the last race that offers qualifying points, if necessary, for the Derby, though only 10-4-2-1 are up for grabs. At 1-1/16 miles note the truncated stretch run that uses the sixteenthpole finish line.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Divining Rod (pictured) moved smartly around the turn and drew off to a 3-length win over 8-5 favorite Donworth as Florida shippers ran 1-2. The winner was

the only of the 7 entrants to move onto the Triple Crown series.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: After failing to produce a Triple Crown starter in its previous 3 years, the 2015 Lexington delivered a solid Preakness 3rdplace finisher in Divining Rod. Its TC-winning alumni of the past 30+ years include:

Ky Derby: Charismatic (’99, 1st),

Swale (’84, 1st).

Preakness: Charismatic (’99, 1st),

Hansel (’91, 1st), Risen Star (’88, 1st)

Belmont: Touch Gold (’97, 1st),

Hansel (’91, 1st), Risen Star (’88, 1st)

137

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Lexington Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Leparoux Delacour 96 (d) ’15 Divining Rod ’14 Mr. Speaker Lezcano McGaughey 99 ’13 Winning Cause Leparoux Pletcher 86 ’12 All Squared Away J. Garcia Ward 97 ’11 Derby Kitten Leparoux Maker 96 ’10 Exhi Albarado Pletcher 97 ’09 Advice Gomez Pletcher 93 ’08 Behindatthebar Flores Pletcher 99 ’07 Slew’s Tizzy Albarado Fox 94 ’06 Showing Up C. Velasquez Tagg 96 (d) Winning Preps for Last 10 Lexington Stakes Winners 3rd Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’15 Divining Rod ’14 Mr. Speaker 2nd Palm Beach (GP) ’13 Winning Cause 1st Allowance (Kee) ’12 All Squared Away 6th Spiral (TP) ’11 Derby Kitten 2nd Alligator Alley (GP) ’10 Exhi 1st Rushaway (TP) ’09 Advice 5th Sunland Derby (Sun) ’08 Behindatthebar 1st Allowance (SA) ’07 Slew’s Tizzy 7th Louisiana Derby (FG) ’06 Showing Up 1st Allowance (GP) INSIDE THE LEXINGTON STAKES: Only 1 of 29 races at 1-1/16 miles on dirt during Keeneland’s 2015 Spring Meet were won by horses stretching out from a sprint prep to a route. The average winner was 1-1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, exactly where Divining Rod sat in his Lexington victory. While the Lexington was the only win in 2015 for Divining Rod, he would finish third in the Preakness, Ohio Derby and Indiana Derby – adding to his third in the Tampa Bay Derby.

138

KENTUCKY DERBY May 7, 2016

STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Every piece of the Kentucky Derby puzzle offers a new challenge. Who will first handle 1-1/4 miles? Who can tote 126 pounds under top class conditions and distance? Who will keep the nerves in check in front of upwards of 170,000 screaming fans? Check off these boxes and you’re a long way to determining who may be draped in roses – granted, they get a clean trip and also are peaking May 7.

A lot will be made for horses who handle Churchill Downs’ surface and those who do not. A few points of caution: don’t overrate 2YO performance at Churchill in the Fall Meet with success in the Spring. The two surfaces are handled quite differently in terms of moisture content and the Fall surface is far more loose and cuppy than the Spring footing at Churchill that is sped up decidedly.

Also, don’t mistake good workouts over the Churchill surface in the weeks leading up to the Derby as a mulligan for prep performances.

Many sharp workers without credentials have been false buzz over the decades. You want legitimate horses working well at Churchill and that gives them an extra feather in the handicapping cap. Horses working poorly can almost universally be dismissed.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Favored American Pharoah outfought Firing Line and Dortmund as west coast-based horses went 1-23 and won for the third time in the last 4 years (California Chrome, I’ll Have Another the others). Jockey Victor Espinoza and trainer Bob Baffert boasted their 2nd Derby in tandem (War Emblem ’02), and it was a 3rd set of roses in Espinoza’s career and 4th for Baffert. A record crowd of 170,513 watched.

139

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 100 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 103 ’13 Orb Rosario McCaughey 111 ’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 108 ’11 Animal Kingdom Velazquez Motion 105 ’10 Super Saver Borel Pletcher 105 ’09 Mine That Bird Borel Woolley 110 ’08 Big Brown Desormeaux R. Dutrow 111 ’07 Street Sense Borel Nafzger 108 ’06 Barbaro Prado Matz 109

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners American Pharoah 1st Arkansas Derby (OP) California Chrome 1st Santa Anita Derby (SA) Orb 1st Florida Derby (GP) I’ll Have Another 1st Santa Anita Derby (SA) Animal Kingdom 1st Spiral (TP) Super Saver 2nd Arkansas Derby (OP) Mine That Bird 4th Sunland Derby (Sun) Big Brown 1st Florida Derby (GP) Street Sense 2nd Blue Grass (Kee) Barbaro 1st Florida Derby (GP)

INSIDE THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Favorites have won 3 straight Kentucky Derbies for the first time since Secretariat, Cannonade and Foolish Pleasure in 1973-’75. Four straight chalks have not won the roses since 1893-’96! 5 straight Derby winners exited major prep victories from 4 different regions of the country Fla, Ark, Ky and Cal (2). No Derby winner has entered his 3YO season a maiden since Monarchos in ’01; and note 8 of the last 10 were stakes performers at age 2. The right horse can win the Derby no matter the trainer’s KD record.

PETER PAN STAKES

140

May 14, 2016

STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The Peter Pan offers a local prep over ‘Big Sandy’ for Belmont Stakes hopefuls and middle-distance runners alike. It’s contested at 11/8 miles around 1 turn, so it lures a mix of late bloomers looking to the final jewel as well as those with some distance limitations.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: After chasing American Pharoah twice at Oaklawn and withdrawing from Kentucky Derby consideration in the final days leading up to the run for the roses, trainer Todd Pletcher pulled a minor 9-2 upset here with Madefromlucky vs. just 4 rivals. The win didn’t advance his profile for the Belmont Stakes, however, as Madefromlucky

managed only a 6th-place finish in his return bid vs. ‘Pharoah.

Madefromlucky would go on to win the West Virginia Derby in August.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Tonalist in 2014 was the first Peter Pan-Belmont sweeper since AP Indy in ’92 and first Peter Pan alumnus to win the carnations since Lemon Drop Kid in ’99. Since ’02, here are the best finishes of the Peter Pan alumni:

Belmont: Tonalist (1st, ’14),

Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Street Life (4th, ’12), Charitable Man (4th, ’09), Ready’s Echo (dh-3rd, ’09), Sunriver (3rd, ’06), Sunday Break (3rd, ’02).

141

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Peter Pan Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 Madefromlucky Castellano Pletcher 99 ’14 Tonalist Rosario Clement 107 ’13 Freedom Child Saez Albertrani 105 ’12 Mark Valeski Napravnik L. Jones 102 ’11 Alternation Dominguez D. Von Hemel 103 ‘09 Charitable Man A. Garcia McLaughlin 103 ’08 Casino Drive Desormeaux Fujisawa 109 ’07 Sightseeing Prado McGaughey 99 ’06 Sunriver Bejarano Pletcher 103 ’05 Oratory Bailey Albertrani 114 ’04 Purge Velazquez Pletcher 110 Winning Preps for Last 10 Peter Pan Stakes Winners ’15 Madefromlucky 4th Arkansas Derby (OP) ’14 Tonalist 2nd Allowance (GP) ’13 Freedom Child 10th Wood Memorial (Aqu) ’12 Mark Valeski 2nd Louisiana Derby (FG) ’11 Alternation 5th Arkansas Derby (OP) ‘09 Charitable Man 7th Blue Grass (Kee) ’08 Casino Drive 1st Maiden (Kyoto/Japan) ’07 Sightseeing 2nd Wood Memorial (Aqu) ’06 Sunriver 3rd Florida Derby (GP) ’05 Oratory 2nd Allowance (Aqu) INSIDE THE PETER PAN STAKES: Arkansas Derby alumni have found the Peter Pan timing to their liking with precision strikes when they show up, including Purge, Alteration, runner-up Commissioner and last year’s winner Madefromlucky. It’s been a race for horses fairly close to the pace and formful finishes in recent years. Horses exiting the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne have become part of the mix in this race in recent years, including last year’s runner-up Conquest Curlinate.

142

PREAKNESS STAKES May 21, 2016

KEY INGREDIENTS: The middle jewel of the Triple Crown remains the series’ truest test, evidenced by only 2 winners in the last century at 20-1 or more and an astounding 13 champion 3year-olds from its list of winners in just the last 15 years.

Widely overblown by horseplayers, horsemen and the media is the 2week turnaround between the Derby and Preakness. Since 1983, only 2 Preakness winners weren’t in action over Derby weekend.

You’re looking for a legitimate Derby winner to repeat his performance, or a troubled-trip horse from Louisville capable of turning the tables. That’s the gist of the handicapping process. Note that horses bet 5-2 or less favoritism in the Kentucky Derby

STAKES HISTORY own an eye-popping 6: 5-1-0 record in the Preakness since 1990.

Strong Derby favorites don’t miss the mark in the Preakness with a smaller field size and truer race.

The vast majority of Preakness winners the past decade have been near the pace with Curlin in 2007 the last to win from more than 5 lengths off the early pace.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: American Pharoah (pictured) became the third Derby winner in 4 years to add the Preakness when overcoming an epic deluge of rain in the moments leading up to the race. Victor Espinoza piloted backto-back Derby/Preakness champs after California Chrome a year prior. Derby pursuers Firing Line and Dortmund both were shelved after disappointments.

143

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 100 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 105 ’13 Oxbow Stevens Lukas 112 ’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 109 ’11 Shackleford Castanon Romans 103 ’10 Lookin At Lucky Garcia Baffert 104 ’09 Rachel Alexandra Borel Asmussen 105 ’08 Big Brown Desormeaux R. Dutrow 101 ’07 Curlin Albarado Asmussen 113 ’06 Bernardini Castellano Albertrani 114 Winning Preps for Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners ’15 American Pharoah 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’14 California Chrome 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’13 Oxbow 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’12 I’ll Have Another 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’11 Shackleford 4th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’10 Lookin At Lucky 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Kentucky Oaks (CD) ’08 Big Brown 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’07 Curlin 3rd Kentucky Derby (CD) ’06 Bernardini 1st Withers Stakes (Aqu) INSIDE THE PREAKNESS STAKES: Trainer Bob Baffert is 4-for-4 in the Preakness when bringing the Derby winner (American Pharoah, War Emblem, Real Quiet, Silver Charm). Derby winners are 11-for-16 in the Preakness exacta since 2000, including 7 wins.

9 straight Preakness winners have come off 2-week layoffs (8 Derby alumni, 1 Oaks). Of the last 9 California-based Kentucky Derby winners, 7 have gone on to add the Preakness as well. Derby runner-ups haven’t won here since Prairie Bayou in 1993.

144

BELMONT STAKES June 11, 2016

STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Order seems to be restored in the final jewel of the Triple Crown as recent winners American Pharoah, Tonalist and Palace Malice all have gone on to underscore their ability.

The race produced flukish results for much of the 2000s over a 1-1/2 miles distance that simply stretches the modern Thoroughbred beyond their pedigree and training in most cases.

Despite its distance, the Belmont rarely falls to a deep closer. It’s a grinder’s race who can pound out the tempo over 12 furlongs, and far more often won near the front than the back of the pack.

American Pharoah not only was the first Belmont winner to race in all 3 Triple Crown legs since Afleet Alex

in 2005, he was the first to even exit the Preakness on 3 weeks’ rest and do so since that same runner.

The modern approach has been to run in the Derby, skip the Preakness, and take the 5-week interval to the Belmont Stakes.

It never hurts to have some racing experience over the expansive oval and ‘Big Sandy’ surface at Belmont Park … though top horses have proven it can be overcome.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: History was made in front of a sold-out audience (90,000) as American Pharoah rolled to a 5-1/2 length win and the Triple Crown.

He led every step in 2:26.65, the 7th-fastest Belmont in history. In his wake was Frosted and eventual Travers champion Keen Ice.

145

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Belmont Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 109 ’14 Tonalist Rosario Clement 108 ’13 Palace Malice Smith Pletcher 100 ’12 Union Rags Velazquez Matz 104 ’11 Ruler On Ice Valdivia Breen 107 ’10 Drosselmeyer Smith Mott 97 ’09 Summer Bird Desormeaux Ice 105 ’08 Da’Tara A. Garcia Zito 106 ’07 Rags To Riches Velazquez Pletcher 106 ’06 Jazil Jara McLaughlin 109

’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06

Winning Preps for Last 10 Belmont Stakes Winners American Pharoah 1st Preakness (Pim) Tonalist 1st Peter Pan (Bel) Palace Malice 12th Kentucky Derby (CD) Union Rags 7th Kentucky Derby (CD) Ruler On Ice 2nd Federico Tesio Stakes (Pim) Drosselmeyer 2nd Dwyer Stakes (Bel) Summer Bird 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) Da’Tara 2nd Barbaro Stakes (Pim) Rags To Riches 1st Kentucky Oaks (CD) Jazil 4th Kentucky Derby (CD)

INSIDE THE BELMONT STAKES: Only 3 of the last 10 Belmont winners exited prep victories, though 2 of them have come in succession with Tonalist and American Pharoah. Tonalist is the only Peter Pan-Belmont sweeper since A.P. Indy in ’92. Only 8 Belmont winners since 1990 have competed in all 3 Triple Crown races. The last 7 Derby winners to run in the Belmont Stakes have a 7: 1-0-2 record. 6 of the last 8 Belmont Stakes winners paid $20 or more for a $2 win ticket.

13 of the last 16 Belmont winners skipped the Preakness.

146

148

APPENDIX 2016 COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN PRESEASON ANNUAL

! " ! # $ % && ! '( 6#78 790 6 !7 :9# 7 ;<! > 4 (?@ A B *? B C B4 B CD Q 4! ?E A B I B 4E B4*E B C4 X 4 (?? K B 5C B I B45E B4 C4 \ 4 ?E ] B C B 4? B4 B *E4 \ 4 6?? A B ? B I B45 B I4 4 ^ 4G ?E _ B E B I B4*C B I4 4b 4G ?? c B 4 B E B I B ?4 5d 4G J _ B B 4E B4*C B 4 e #a"E B 4? B * B ? B4 C e #a"I 5K B I B C B B E > (? B 4? B 5I B E B4 ?

Q ! I * B E B B C B I

) ( '" ) *

$ ' +, ' $( $ * ! " !

.

( /&% && ! '( +01 ) 2 "2% ( "$

99 9# 871 8 9 ?E? F ('G 3G ??H ??R 7 S 3G ?E@ ??H ( 3G ?E? ??H F 3G ??R ??R 0 6 ' 3G ?EJ ??N :( 6 ' 3G ?E? ??N :

;1 %3G ?E@ ??I ; * F= [3< ??N ??E )$ !& V ??C ??E )$ !& V ??E ??? )$ !& V ?@R ??? )$ !& V ??I

8 8 = 5= * = 4 4= = = *5 *= = 5 5 = * = * * = * = * =

! " ! !

! 6 !7 ! : < * I J ?? ?JK EEA I I T T 4O $% 4?E YA CK 4I 4J 5 ! 5NK JO *JA 5R R 5?@ 5?HO IK T EK 4 $& 5 EK I ?K 4? EO ! *H 5H JK ?K K $ 4 *J 5EA 4K ?K ? ' *JO 5J C ?K E * ( 5 J JA JA JK 5* &! J J YK ?C EEK

?I ?@A IK 4?A

3 3 4 3 3 3 3

; 081 (( LL?EE U L ?EN 9 L (?EN 9 L (?EN 9 L (?EN ` ( Ua" UL ?EE ` ( Ua" UL ??N 9 L (??H 9 L (?E@ 9 L (?E@ 9 L (?E@ 9 L (??R

.5 . 5 . *. 55 .

#

3 3 4 3 3 3 3

)=8 ;66! 7 & :

% M 4 9 % 2 FNO ( ( ?O:( " ?

M 4 V (( F % 2 W) O; 'W M Z ( ( CA;[' P?O; '?

M Z * ;[' P?O (" F $ K) (" NO M Z ; 'EKG ($ "(?9 S ("

T M ; 'EO (" F $ EA)

J M ; 'K` ( NO!& F( 2

E M ; '?6"F % EO $ (("

EO ; 'E: $ % ($EA9 S ("

T 4 * ` L F?O ( P' FW9 S CO Z * 7 U ?@K< P(

CK9 ( HK ` ( A7 ( P

S ?; 'E

. *.* 5 . .

''( ' F. 43 P &

' $ = . ($ ( P "

$. ( $

$ ' P = . ( = 5 #PFP$ . ' ($ 5P S P $ . $ P (

( $ P$. "& ( 7 2% . ' $. ( P " " . $ S

2 6 S P

% # $ "& 2 . ( P ; S ( P.5P =

* *

f *g 4 ( B = * g 4 ( B C 44=4 4g 4 ( B C =5 4> 4: B = > 4: B = 5 > 4: B I =4 f Q 4! 77 B *C =4 f Q 4:

B ? = f 4Q 4: B = * *h 4: B ? = h 4: B ? = h 4: B ? =

! " # $

%%& &

' (

)( * (( + , -&( .% , / , 0 & 1 + (& 2 /340

(( 5 6'

' ' '

7

!

8 8 8 8 8 8

"$ !"$ ! "$ "$ ! $ " !+

" # $ %&

$ (& , $ +&

8 8 8 8 8 8

"$ "$ ! " )*

5 9. 9 3 5: 9 ) 9: ; .94 . . . < 5 9 ):; = 3.4 ><. 55 9 ? )

,

@ AB C D 7E D E D!$E D F! AAG &2 8- ABF < # ! BH EH !F E I -6 J & ABK L ! : ((,&1 & , I % GM & 1 &6 E !8 *"%

%"% 1 ' (&N %

& ' 8!*%O % * ?& < $O *% 6?? O 6 ' %O6? @ 5AA I D A D F D! D F! AAG 3+5 Q+8- ABE 7 7< # * $FI 7G EI E AH -6 J & ABK L ! : ((,&1 & , AH % I56((&,& M * % < ?( : ((,&1 & , V & 1 &6 H (6 2

&

Q * EI

% !*% <#"'& (+ 7R K S D 7 D D! A D 7F! AAT 5 Q+8- AAU 77 # < !* ! BH BH !B !H V -6 J & ABB L W K X D ! D $E D B D F! AAK * 8- ABY 7 < ' AH AH Z B BM -6 J & AAG L ! ! : ((,&1 & , BM. ? *&+BM- 1

( AI &(2 %"Q %"( %" ( & # [ & U 7 + D F D D B D $ AAK ? 6(8- AAF # #7< )* # TM AYH$AF $AU ?& 6N\6(

ABY L 6 + *&?M9

Q 'EM 'Q(6 &

FH *7< $"!*!<#" & ( < $ 7] 5 Gรณ$H D B D D B D E AA^ &(8- AAG #7 < ## ** Z Z A AM & \ (AAU L $ # & 1 &6 AM: ((,&1 & , EI> ', +

FI :

% %6 (" % Q $ !_ (B รณ H D A D F D 7F D !F AAE >% ? ` AAK ! < #7 !+ 7 A A A M & \ (AAG L # : ((,&1 & , M ?

*& FI96 (V

'( %

" , (% '& (+ 7 7R ,? $ D !F 7< R ( $ D !E < # ! a ( 7 D $ <! a ( 7 D $A < a ( D E < b !a $ D < !W ( D #E < 7c ( 7 D $ < c ( 7 D 7 < b c ( $ D B < c ( D E 7< 7 !d ( D # < #

Past Performances Courtesy BRISNET.com - Kentucky Derby Winners 2003-2015

149

APPENDIX 2016 COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN PRESEASON ANNUAL

! " # $ %& ' (' ) '* & + * ,*% 3#+ +0 3; + B 9# CD 6&

<0# +;=>

9 S 9) TIรณ U

& *

*-. / 012 3*%

* /4 02 /5* * * 6 /4 02 2

+ * ,*% / 72 )

4 *'*

00 0# +7 0 ? 3 + E9 FG CFC H- #

84 CCI ?

E 9CV

3-W X %& -84

?

[ 94 I D \ E F E 9C E9 ] E " G CCI 4 +- 84

CFC :: ?

9b [ B h

CFF CCg CCg CFC

#CCD 4 c D e %CC O

CF U

E 9C E F T E E :Y

E : E F E F E

E Y E9 ]V E 9 E ]G E9 Y E9 Y9 E9"C E :F9

CFC ) % 84 CCf = (?

9.8> CCI % 84 CCf *( 84

9 : :: ":

? " ? "? ?

& # & &

9

!9 "! :! : !

9 !

8 8 8 8 8 8

! " #$ ! " &$ ( " )$

8 8 8 8 8 9 8

!: ! % '' :!

<;> @= 7 )? =33 + A <

'

CC , %*JK- JLCFM 3 %* *

$* N#%L* **' O4 6 * F * P - 9 A

& E A%%& ' &E '%& -A $%

'

& %&E & * & % F 0 * LCFM #

*%(

6& F0 & *& *-.YN %* - Z & : - ! * %T P - %T *

& WT )=+;=> 40# #)

: YO ] O ^ CZ 0 * L %CFC _W 9 "M YN cZ '& : :]O :] 9C " '' C] fO Y & 9CI 9CYZ cO

:Y CO M 9]O

CO F :gZ O

L* * CFM , %*JK- JL CCg , %*JK- JL CFM , %*JK- JL CFM

_W _W _W _W

`

TCZ#

*%(

6& CZa W &% & * &MZ

&

! 6*P $*T :

X &* CO#

*%(

6& O=WP - %Td & & ? !W% ( & ? ` : #

*%(

6& F) - ' %%F %%WT ' &6 F 9 $ & W &! && - ` : 0-%

N *T ' TCO %% * A &cZ - A! - W% !%

` 9 '* (% &O#

*%(

6& CZ# % 6TFO ( %$!* 6% $!6* %T W ( % $%TR % &R$ ( & $*T - $&

%* R *&T 6*

R #

*%(

6& FN> ' Z)- ' * ' * N 8:$! & & - %* 9 #

*%(

6& FN3

P ]Z+$

A &cN # 6% & - ! & $ % * $'* * - T^#

*%(

6& FO .

P Z #$($* & ! & P - %T *

& WT #+# #>= X#7> )

:

"h 3CC Z E ] E 9F E9"F E 9 CCf T3 WT84 :S + Ciรณ \ E :F E F E9 Y E C9 CCY A *%849 9S 4 I D E 9 E " E Y E9 ]9 CC] = (? .8>

CFC :" ? % : M MZ FN 9CO FN , %*JK- JL CFM _W CFC ": ? '* MZ "YZ FZ ^ FN 4* **CFC _W CCc : ? ' c c 9C FO ^ )* *6' *L PCCI _W

9j Mรณ \ E " E E9:Y E Cig )& A X k # g รณ e E E F E C E CCi )& A X

: ? "" '# 9 O O O O ]Z #%W* *& LCCI _W ` " #

*%(

6& ]Z * O4

&FO , &

& ! % * & CCF 9? * IN MN IZ Y FN #%P* *& L-

CCgW ` : X %% .

FN#

*%(

6& ]N)*P (

6d + * ? :!* 6% & -

l S 9 + E ] ?9 S 9 + " E :] ? S 9 + : E ] ? [ 9 + E "? " m 9 + " E "] ? m 9 + : E ] ? + E ? l "m 9 + E Y ?9 n + E ? 9 n + E ? n + E ] :? :j + E ] 9?:

# # $

# # $ $ %&' ( ) $ *+ ' , -. $ /

! 0 " *12/ " ( 3 -- +

! " 5+36 371 5,%3 !7+83,9:% =$ % >? $@ A > $A$$>$A B A > $=$ # (>? $O A G $A$ ?$A >$A G $ R$ >? $S A ? $A$$>$A >$A ? $R$ 85>> $@ . A $A$ ?$A B A ? $ X$ 9 C $O A > $A$ B$A ?$A > $ Y$ 3 >>$Z A ? A $A$$B$A > \ 85>> $Z A > A B $A$$?$A G $ ] "C $ A B A B $A ?$A $$a "G $ . A ? A > $A$ G$A > = % T J )- A > A B $A$ >$A$ G

77 7+8632 6 87 6$ 6 ; >>C 3 D 4E$ >>F ; >>C P", D4E$ >>C $ ; >>T P 4E$ >>H $ $ ; >>U 1.5 Q.4E$ >?G $$ ; >>H + P5 Q.4E$ >>T ; >>F 3 ' 5Q.4E >>H $ ; >>G 1.<84E >>C $ ; >>F 8( ' ) 4E$>>U $ ; >>> #- %' >>U $ $ ; >>> #- %' >>G ;

% 5 %3 & $$ G@ # > $ >J FJ $$ $ ?J $$ $? $>J $% $ $> $' $> &$

$8 H J >J T BJ $J $>J $J $>J >J

8 B@ J > J B W $W $W $>J >J

$

% !,: HI $ ?GJ ?J GI UJ >>I $? $?J W @ W J $F $F J ? $G $U G H@

4 4 $ $ 4 $ 4 $ 4 $ 4

$0 0 $0 $ 0 $ $0

! "

! $" ! %"

<98162 #;6 955% 3 ' !

( + " L' M!".- N HI! -&- >J " (>?H K " (>??

K P

"& P.G3 '' ( I! -&- M " (>?H K V$ P

"& P.I! -&- W< P Q -> " (>?H K %&' D ?J, Q L@ --. ' - ? " (>??

K

- D -@%&' D @5&Q"

>I 5

)& [ >??K V$ 9-. & M% ( ". -- J%&' D J " (>??

K %&' D F "" P

GJ "-".J ^ " [_& [` >?? K Q .P >J5 ".

J+ ' M 5

)& [ >>CK V %&' D U3&D UI "- -F ^ " [_& [` >>C K 5 ".

H@%&' D >!" L ( ) "- ' ' I

$ 4 $ 4 $ 4 $ 4 4 4

CCY

l m 9

0$ # $0 0

8

4 N $ & 0 - % & Q" - 0 N -

- Q N0-& "0 - ;$ 8

0 "0 - D

) 5 0 & P P- Q N

7 - " 0 (& ) ,

- 0 - D

) % ' & - ' ^ ) & ( - - % "P - N -

$=$ % $A $ ; $ =$ % $A ? $ ; b$ % $A B $; $ b$ " $A ; $$b$ " 33 $A $B ;$ c b$ " $A $; d$ " $A $G $ ;$ d$ " A B $; $ d$ " A > $; $ $ R$ 85 A B ; X$ 85 . A G ; X$ A G ;

Past Performances Courtesy BRISNET.com - Kentucky Derby Winners 2003-2015

$$

$

$

150

APPENDIX 2016 COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN PRESEASON ANNUAL

/ 1 1 # !"

2

* 23 4 1 50 ) 0 6 1!! 7 #

) )

)" ') 6&% 8 9 /,) :& ; , %*,& / # $ $ %&' ()*' +) , - . / % ) 0% 5 <7 %6) $ =)3

1#

#

$. ( + $-0 +. - 90 B1 $C 1 D E D F 1D !E1D? GH R1 0) GI 1S D L 1D11E1D? L1D H X1 0) GI 1S D # 1D11F1D? G1D #FH Z1 $GI[1 D ?G D F 1D !L1D? FH

++ +. ( < ( GEI $ 2 > 1 GGC = /4) /> 1 GEG =,

3Y> 1 GG\ 6 Y>

+ GGJ GGO GGC GGJ

(1 ( : # ! : ## 1 : # # : ! :

0 $ 0 1 0 -9 ! $ 1 11GG11GEK1 GLM11CN 1 GIM '( E E FN GLN EGK 1 $" 1 ON JN CN ON GEN # '$ 1 G\1 EGM1?GC1 GF #\M

B ! )Cรณ1K 1 b ! )\รณ1S 1X !2 J 1S d ! 'GG 1N 1 f !

GE 1g f ! $GG 1K !i !0% GE 1S #j !0% GG 1k

GEG ') > 1 GEI /4 /> 1 GG\ =c$ &3> GG\ ' > 1 GGJ )6 > 1 GGJ 3$ &3> 1 GGe 0% $ &3# 6 GGL / ' /$&31 6

GEI GEI GGC GEG GEG GEL GGO GGO

# : ! #: ##: ? 1 : !?: ! : #1 #!: # # :

1 ? $' 111GF1 GO1 GG 1 $$1 1 GG1 CN1 JK ! $ GI GF ?C # # 1 C #eN 1N 11 " 1?G\1?GLN11JK 11? #1!EG1!GO1 \ ! '' ! \ EM ?G # ') ? ?F 1Q 1Q

D F D #E D E D D L 3 D G D G D ?L

1D11F1D? D LH 1D1 L1D? E1D #GH 1D1 E1D? 1D 1E? 1D1 E1D? F D E? 1D11 1D? F1D ?

1D1 1D? E D L? 1D1 1D? E1D ?

D # 1D11F1D ?F?

!\M #JN ?EN 1N O 1G E Q

!GIM LM ?GM ?L G 1OM LK K

b # )eรณ1k D ?E D 1D1 L1D F GGO @%U ' > 1

GGF # : !# $ # F #FM LK1 GGM1 CM

b #= O รณ1k 1 R #= F รณ ?X #= F รณ N X #= G รณ Z #= e รณ

GGO GGe GGO GGL GIC

D E D ?

D ?

D E D L

D !G D E D E D F D F

1D1 1D E 1D1 F1D ?E 1D11 1D1 E D #G 1D1 F D # 1D1 L

GGL 3> ?

GGL 043 /1 6 GGE 0 'U $ A 31 6 GIC 2/ GGG 2/ 0A =

? # #1 # ?

: # : #1: #!: :

1 1 1 !! ! #

'& '$ '' '& $

1

1

!

G ?

1 !

EN E EN E !OM

GN G LK ?GN !O

N N GK N #\K

1N 1K 1E 1GM CK

> > > > 1 > >

" #" ? ? " $" 1"#! "

! ! % &!

# 1 1

> > 1 > > > >

" " 1" 1 " " '$

@ (< 2:( $$0 A

,

0 , GEO P& 1# # $)6 )A, Q2

*'

GK )3 * L 0 )/ / ) 1 2) )*, )T UGEO P& 1 V%)' 3 )/FM23 , )'A 4 N ) W% ' )

GK ( A 3 / % " )/ / ' ,GGJ P ! ') QV%)' 3 )/GM2% 6 ) CN 0)U / * % /" ) ' ,GEE P ] # ;/ T)U%GN %&' A )6 ^- )6

*GK ) &) 6" & ') /'3 1 U % '3 )

/ &3 = (< (99-( @+ ' ,GEE `P 1 a 3) )G A

GK 4 U M 6 ' 4" ) ' A 1 ' ,GEG `P ? ) , ) / K ' 'T , M+ ,) / 6 /M ) % " , ) 1 0 , GEE P ! 0 %'4) K */ ) )GN2

,) & /FN / / 6" ,% * ' ,GEO P ]1 0% & /EM$% 6 6K2

,) & /LM 4 / U " ' / 1 0 , GEO P +) , ')' h) / )G2

,) & /N2% 6 ) EN 0 / / 1: " 4"*)

* 1? ' ,GEO P 2

,) & /OM

,

' ^2% 6 ) Q '/

/ % 1! ) & GEE P 1? ''3' )6GN23 , )'A 4 GN0 4 , ) K / 4 / 1: "4 )6 / 1 ) & GEE P ? 0 4 , ) K2

,) & /FK0 6

' * /N c / 4/"/% '/" / & U % '3 )

/ &3 2.9$( . +- Y.+$ ( 0% , ') / GEE`P ? 2 / , A ) GK0W%) // N0 , N = / A 1 U % '3 )

/ &3 (< $.c-$ 0% , ') / GG\P 2

,) & /N ) /% N0 %'% A') ^ 6

4 /"%A

0% , ') / GG\P ]1 2

,) & /K=

) / * K('& %T GK 4")'' % / U"%A ') 0% , ') / GGJP 1 ? 2

,) & /E N$ 3/ K +) ' 4" )'' /"/ U 2 A '' GEIP ! 1 2

,) & /GM AA FK * ) )% EN +) ' ?4"%A / 2 A '' GEIP 1 FM= '' * )3K.4 ,3 , GN 9 U

1

?1b1 $ ? D? E * ?:! l b1 $ 1D 1:? 1 b1 $ 1D 1G : !b1 $ 1D F :?? l 1b1 $ 1D L 1:? ?R1 $ 1D 1E :1 l1 R1 $ D F 1:? l? X1 0) 1D G Y 1: X1 0) */ 1D11F Y 1: l1 X1 0) 1D E Y 1:11 !Z1 0) 1D1 E Y 1:1 1Z1 0) 1 1D 1:1

!

" #$ % #&' (# ) * ' $

+ , $

7 * * 7"%* < ,*"=3% 0? 91 $@A B C. D ;E D F D0 F D GH 0S 91 $FT B D ;G D E D0 F D 9F0 U 9 'FF K D 9F D E D0 E D T0 X 9 FG Y D ;E D G D0 T D E0 0X 9,7FO L D D D0;G D E0 ] 9+ FO B D E D D0 D 9 0 ] 9+ Z ^ D E D F D E D0 T0

- .# / 0 1

23- / 4 5 1

-' 2 65

7- 8 $# .

! " ! #

9

: : ; : : : :

0!; !

0! ;!

0 !9 $

% &

;

: : : : : :

0! ;!

00 !9 $"

, *6 , > % 7 %* , , % <"3 FFI 1 - $ J FGF > $" K G K F L FFI J'" 4:+ FGT > K FK F G FR FF@ ' :+ 9 > 0G 0GK 9FTK7 7 FFI #J :+ FGE 9 ;> ; 0T 0E 0F WK WL FF@ /7 &/:+ FGZ > FK ;GK [ GK ER FFI <'#7 &/:+ FGW > 9 F F FK T W FFW '8 M FGO ; > ; ! K 0F [ V FGR

0? %# W A a D 0 D G D E D F FFT 1. %( \

)=, 6 1> =77% * ( <

$ ,

7 #-MJNFGO P Q ; C& 8 L -.

J/K%$#J R , #&' (# !C# 7 #-MJNFGG P Q C& 8 FR, #'('#/EL, ' #' # GK 7 ! ' # '# 7 #-MJNFGV P Q 0 7# # #WL7

JGR #./ $ # J! #. .!. # .

7 #-MJNFGV P Q C& 8 WL1# $ #C#

K" #&#. # R 8. 4 !- . 8 #( 7 #-MJNFGV P Q C& 8 ER C$ & '' TK7

JGR \ . ! #./ - C

C 7 #-MJNFGG P Q C& 8 W% $# ZK* TL 7 8 #8#/! C '/ 7 #-MJNFFI P Q 0 C& 8 FGR #4 #8 FK7 (- TK 7 8 !$# . '/ 4 - '/ #

. &/ 63= 7% * ", )_ ; `

C& 8 FFL7 #'R\ # FR # #8#/ 8$ - .

FF@ 9 9 > $ FK FK TK FO FFL NFF@

0b 9 c- * ; D E >0 b 9 c- * ; C. D T >0 0 ? 9 c- D F >0 ? 9 c- * C. D F 0>0 0? 9 c- * ; D T > 9S 9 c- * D T > S 9 c- D F ;> S 9 c- * 0 D09T > ;d 9 c- ; D E >0 d 9 c- ; D G > d 9 c- D F >0 d 9 c- D E 0>

Past Performances Courtesy BRISNET.com - Kentucky Derby Winners 2003-2015

APPENDIX 2016 COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN PRESEASON ANNUAL

% & ' () *+

,#--$ ( . $# , # , + !# "# $ ( /+ 0# -1 &# $ 2

! "# $ $ 2"* " )%" 7 2&")80% = : <>> ? ' @ A @ B @3 A @ CD O " >Hรณ P @ @ C @3 B @ CD Q %# R ? @ @ C @34A @ B3 W %# R P @ @ B @34> @ A3 Y >C Z @ B @ A @3 B @ 3C3 Y & >H ? @ 4> @ @3 @ 3 \ Rรณ P @ C @ 4B @3 A @ >3 a "# >C b @ 3C @ C @ @ 3 3 c 4& A b @ 3 @ 4B @ B @ C = 4 ]รณ b @ 3> @ 4B @ A @ O 42 R ' @ 3> @ 4B @ C @34B Q 42 B 4G @ B @ > @ > @ A W 4& U 4 @ B @ C @ @ >

2&*"/ * & >CB &&$# 5E >CA >C> '&;&$ 5E >CC >>R " #S 5E >CA >>R ! # ,'5E >CC >C> #V 5E >CA >CH ' N'5E >C[ >>] $K E # 5E >>] >>F "# ;# N'5E3>C> >>R &!KS $ 5E >CU >>R , 7K 5E >C> >>U 2 X &7K 5E3 >>R >>> :, %; X >>F >>C :, %; X >>U

* * 9 4 9 9 49 9 39 4 9 9 4 9 49 4 9 9 9 3 9

% %" & & F >> 3A ! 3 > > > CL 3>G T ! 3 BG B > RG >[ RG $ >[ >RG3BG 3 %$ CG CG C 4 & UG F AG 3>> >>G F? %! R 4UL L % 3? 3G 3? %' G G $% 3 4AG B

! "

% 3BG G T T >G > L G A > T > CG

3

7)0 >H? >?

G >G T C? ^ ^ >H 3>L 3>L >?

A

4 5 5 5 3 5 5 5

!8& */ $ <>C> $ <>CH $ <>CU $ <>CB $ <>CU $ <>CU $ <>CB $ <>CC $ <>CC $ <>C> $ <>>F $ <>>] $ <>CH

63 36 36 6 6 6

# $

4 5 5 5 5 5 5

:9* 8 % " ; 7

< I J &K $

AG # , ;K AL2M 1 > I J # , ;K >?% B?% # # >>?

I J 3 % GE # < ;; >H? $

V ?

I J 3 % >G&;M L% 1<

1>G I J 3 &K $

T% A # , ;K >G I J % C? # , ;K [L&K $

G I J

# ^% T_# ` T I % ^2 '1 S # K ,#'U? $ 1< K$V C I % >H& K$# dK#'C?E # <K CL I E # <K >L& K$# dK#'^% B I 3 E < $# $#K1<8 V % G I J % >?)-- <#$ C? # < $#V >B e N ,$ , .; A% A?: ' #$$ 1< >?

152

36 346 6

&

)

, 6 M

1 N ,

,6 1# $'6 , N

, K , X< K ,6 $ # %MK 1 M , 6 ' $, , # $ $# 6 ;$ 6, S 7$ # , K 39 4 K $ ,6N K <,6#$$ K # $ S 6 , M M N ,6 $ # 6M #V

3 M , 6 M

1 N , 8 # $6 < $, M#' 5 M6 , N

4

3= : < @ > 9 3 = & @ A 93 = & @ C 93 O & @ A 9 O & @ B 9 4O & @ B 9 O & @ A 39 Q %# @ 9 3 Q %# @ B 393 f Q %# ' @ 9 4W %# @ C 3 93 f W & @ C 9 4

# $ # &

% ! &

! ' "" () & *+! + % , . / . . % 0! 1 * 2 .! 3 .

4! "

! " # !$" 789 8 :#8 ; 7+8:<=# @ & AB C D &E D A D E D E &@ &+ AF M D & D O D , D A S &G AB T D ,A D A D & D W &G X T % D &A D A D & D A Z &+ AA[ T D ,O D A D A D &E ^ "I [ _ D D &O D O D b "P [ D E D ,E D A D O

7+982 9 ABF !1 5G ABA % $%5G AAU ;"! $%5G AAP "% (""5G AAI 8 $%5G AAO ";( ( % 1 AAF .H #? \

+ 9 9 > > ABP > ABB > ABA ,> ABF , > ABF > AAL >

# #8 + &+ + EM O % AQ AQ , % A Q ( BQ BQ ! & AQ AQ !( AQ Q

+ + E Q V AQ V A

# + O V AQ V EQ O

;:= + IQ Q Y EY U UQ

,

& 5 5 5 5 5 5

6 6 6 6 6 !

!"

!" ' "

5 5 5 5 5 5

0<+ 92 .>9 < # 8 ? ;

4 !H ABI J K ! H

LM#N 4 !

I

)N!% 1 %O !H ABI J & ! $! IQ "( ) ! ! B# ??

N " A !H ABB J K & ! $! Q#4! ?4( E#(

R BM !H ABB J K & ! $! YG ! ?

BQ.%) "H

)Q !H AAX J K ! $! EY\

R Y N

4! "] +! !$!"" ` ABB J ! $! U !$ " !"B9a A +! !$!"" ` ABF J , ! $! UQ0!H R ) BY7 ! !3

A

6 6 6 % 6 !

+

1 H N

# ( $" ! 6 N6H R) ( ? H 6 " ) H R +" ! "! 6 "! H

HH ( \4 !H% NH6H R

) ! H " !H6 H (

@ &;!

D A > c S &+ D & >& S & D B > ,d & D > d & D E > & d & D B > d & D E > W & D B > Z & D B > & c Z & D B > &Z & D > c &e 8 D B >

Past Performances Courtesy BRISNET.com - Kentucky Derby Winners 2003-2015

153

APPENDIX 2016 COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN PRESEASON ANNUAL

*+ ,**

& -( . /& 0 -( ", 1

! " 2 " % & " /341 " " # $ " % & # $ & ' ( & ')* &( % (

# $ # '

9#-: - 3 9;&. #<-; =& > !<9?@ A B !C B B5!D B E M ! 'I N B !F B C B5 F B 8 E S !9 P A B !C B ? B5 D B CE T !9 P U B F B ! B F B E Z !&#?@ A B ? B ? B5 C B D[ ] !&#X N B ? B D B5!D B ^ *?? G B 8C B F B58 B 8C5 ` ?D a B ! B C B5! B 5 ` <9?@ A B ? B D B5 F B C5 b &#I N B ? B ? B5!D B 5 Z &#P U L B 5D B ! B C B 5 ] &#X N B !F B C B5!? B 5 8g *P U B 5D B ! B B C > *F U B 5 B !? B ? B C M &#F U B F B !? B B T *F G B B F B !C B F

& !I IG I CG PG F V XA !DO D DG 5?G 5D 5DG DG !XG

#<:-4 : ?DD <<*' 6 ?D@ $L$ < 6 ?D? ' <*6 ??V & 9 W 6 ?DD &# 6 ??V & ,)6 ??V * 6 ?D@ 'R 6 ?D? 3+9 )+6 ??P &#9 )+6 ??V & . * 0 6 ??X &(' R ??X *., 6 ??X #*L ! _ ??C "$ &0 \ ??F "$ &0 \

< ?DF ?D? ?D? ?DD ?DD ?DD ??V ?DD ?DH ?D@ ?D@ ??V ??V ??V ??P ??F

: 8 8 8 8 8 8!

8

85 8 8

8

8

:

8

5

!

8 ! !

88 !

8

& 9 & 5?D ! FO 8 &) IO # ! !XG 8 &* 8HA # PA ! & DG 5 ??

8??

8CO 5 &$ 5DG 8 &* 8 !?O &$ !HA 8 *& FO 8 &# FA 8 * 8

< < 5?DG HG FO H !HA !I !IA !FA 8HO FG HA 8FO O Y PA X 8?IA FG 8H !CO 5C 5?

5G DG !HG D DO CG FA 5?G 8IO 8PG

! ! !

.;= FG 5CA IO Y ??G 5H ?XO 5VO G D IG 5?A ?

5D ?@ ?@O

7 5 75 !

7 78 !78 !

5 6 6 6 6 6 6

% <3:4 & ( ?DI & ( ??P & ( ?DF & ( ??X & ( ??P & ( ?DC & ( ?DI & ( ?DI & ( ?DI & ( ?DD & ( ??I & ( ??X & ( ?D? & ( ?DD & ( ?D@ & ( ??V

$!!% $!!

%&' ( )'"& # * && + ,& - . & / !"# $" . ,/

( 0 1

!"# $" 5,6% 678 5* 6 $7, 6*9: ? &@@ A B C B C B D B 3D K @D L B 3@ B D B D B D K 5@Q R # B C B S B 3@ B W 9 X Y #B S B C B S B D Z 9 @Q [ B D B 3C B B \ 9 X B S B S B @ B 3D ] ,^'I_ UQ B @ B 3 B C B D ` 1"X 3 B S B @ B C B S ` 1"E B @ B @ B 3S B

77 7, %6; % 7 % % < @D@ & 2+ @DE 3 3< @DD "M 2+ @DI < @D@ 8#5 T#2+ @DU < @@X , M5 T#2+ @DS < @@I 7 T & M @DC < @@I ' 1P M @DD < @@U ' $& 3 M @DD 3 < @@C a ":' # M @DQ < @@C =! > b @DQ <

5 6 !" @ @A !' @V !* A !" 3 @ ! @A ! 3 @ $ 3 ")

A DA DA A @ DA @ D O

CA @ O O A O O DA N

@A N O C @ D A I E

3

$*: @ @@A DV @A CR V N @N UV

2 2 2 2 2 2

09 8%; %&& @DE %&& @DE %&& @DE %&& @DD %&& @DD %&& @DD %&& @@E %&& @@U %&& @@I

5 6 6 6 6 6 6

" : 99& - 0 .

( J ; K' ? ' $

DG , '0?

QJ 8 ! 'K' ' DA ( $ R? ' G QJ 8 'K' ' DG $ L' $G&,0 * ?O QJ 8 ' Y ' (

' ( )' DA '0 (,** ?G QJ 5 'K' ' O"'W , XG\ *R D QJ W(*

FG- 0 ( ' $ (' G ' FA J # * '* _X# $ $' ( IO= *' ' DA J ! # * '* _FO& '00+ H ' ?

J 5 ' G<*

W' W, G# * '* _DG QJ 5 ,cc' $ )'+G '*d ( )e\ *R ?G QJ 5 8 < * $' IG ' G9 W '$?

QJ f

WL *$? '0 (,** A ' G QJ 9 *'

? ' e\ *R D QJ f - _ ?<( 0 ' $ L ? ' V QJ 5 ' ?@9

+) R0 $ A\ $ 0* ' C QJ 8 -(

W ('00 Hh

'

A& ' W( ' $ WG

M ! * ! B D i 5M ! * ! B F ! M ! * B ? 8 i M ! ' ! B D j !&# ! B 5 5! j !9 B 5 S !9 ! B ? 8S !9 ! B C 8 S !9 B F 55 5 5T ! * ! B 5F

!" %" ( )"

34 4 34 4 4 $

<

0 ' *+7 68L ) $ <' , 7*' 5 $ 5L$ , 7 '**+ L$

7,0 L

5L$

7 ( ' <' , 87 '** $ L $ 7 * $7 $ L$ 7'$K' ) L 8L *' 7'** , L$

7) 5L$ ) $ 7( *$ $ L$75L$7( *$ 5 $ ) * L7 '** $ <(' $7 *' ) $ $ 5L$ *' 7(' $ *+ ) * L7 * )

W

j !&# ! B

!"# !&# ( !)#

7 8 75 !

7 &$

5

8

8

8j !9 B 55

3

=<% 955 6 > $

1 F G ! @ " #H I7 #"&" "'& C F G 3 " #H @@A7 M1" !

D%!!

- O F G " #H DV

1 " CR* > "& D

G " #H @A - @A > "! CA

" #H CR ' - CV > "! CV

G " #H V6P ! P "' " A > "! UR

G " #H N7 M# ME= > MA

G 3 " #H @N "& #>' 1DR* & 1@A

G " #H UV5 >' # ' #DV > !P &&T "'E

2 2 2 2 2 2

4 4 4 4 !'

J !4 & " 4 -" &# 2 P4" -& !

4! (

"&M !4T !4 & " & " ! " P &&4! ( 8 M !

-&# & " 1" !4 M ( 4! ( ' T& ! " 4 P !

9 & P4 !

" ! " !#

K 1" 3 B @ < c W 5 -! B < c W 9 B C < c Z 9 B C < c \ 9 B < \ 9 3 B C < c ] 9 B < ] 9 B <3 d 1" B @ < d 1" B < e 1" B S < e 1" B <

Past Performances Courtesy BRISNET.com - Kentucky Derby Winners 2003-2015

3

APPENDIX 2016 COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN PRESEASON ANNUAL

, - . $$/ % ++ - - $$/ 0&+ 1' - $# 2

3

' ' " + 0 42 ')) ' +'5

! "

# $ # % &' (' )' & '*+ , 8 9: ,;& 9 ;< & B % C D E %F E E/#G E GH #S % +C M E $G E F E F E/ IT $[ % X.J D E % E F E/ K E #KH 7[ %: Cรณ ^ E G E %F E G E FT _ 7 +U D E %K E K E/7K E $KH 7` 7 +U D E 7K E I E/ E %FH ` 7&' U D E %I E F E/%I E GH B 73<U N E % E K E/ F E KH S 7 II D E %G E I E/% E $KH / [ 7 X.L D E $ E /F E/#I E KH [ 7 X.C D E 7I E G E/ K E #IH d 7 C e E 7K E G E/ F E H f 7 U E /G E G E #F E/ KT %g 7 U 7 E G E E 7K E #KH B +U N E 7K E $F E/ G E KH h +U D E 7I E E/ I E 7GH S II e 5 E 7K E F E/#I E # T / _ &U N E % E I E/ I E $ H _ +IV N E %G E G E/7K E KH i &' U N E 7K E F E/7 E FH /B +J N E 7I E $I E//F E $KH $h &. IV D E #G E K E/7G E $ H

99 9 8 4 8 9 IIJ 3- 1 A? (IKI IIU 3')

7 ( IKV IIJ \: )

7 ( IKV IIC < (= ! 56 II] IIU \8 @ + IIU IKV (+5 6 IIU IKV 3 -1' -6 IIU IIC , ,'56 / IKI IIU 3,&A 6 / IIU IIC \: )

7 ( IKV IIU 8c+ 6 / IKI IKV 6 IIC IIU < (= ! 56 IKV IIU ? @ 6 / II] IIU &.*. * 6 II] IKV (+5 6 IIU IKG &@ + 6 IKG IKF +' 6 IKK IKK >(5 +* 6 IKL IKK &' 6 IKF IKK &.*. * 6 IKG IKI ?' 6 IKL

/ S +U /[ X.C D $f U D %f IV D g IV % _ /& U N /i /? AII D %h / +II M %S / IK e

IKG ? @+ 6 IKK 8c+ 6 / IKK 1< + 6 IKG ,

6 IKV < (= !56 IKF +' 6 IIU (+; R 6 IKV + 6 IIC '( 6

E /K 5E # E % E %I E G E 7I E % 5 E #G )- E %

E 7 E E K E E G E I E F E /K E G

E E/ KH E/7F E $KH E/ K E #GT E/ G E %GH E I E FT E/ I E $FH E/7 E $I/ E/# E #I/ E/7K E G/

IKG IKF IKF IKF IKL IKK IIU IKK IKF

8 #

$$ # %$ #7 $% $/ #% #

$!!% $!!'

/#

$# $/ ## %$ #7 % ## $7 $# $/ #

8 = $ = /= = $/= $= $$= $#= = $ = $ = = = = $%= $ = /= = #= #= = #= $7=

& , & $ !& L # (" C $ !$ /IM #/ "" / /IM (" % G $7 !! /GM $ (& /M %% (" b (" 7 /KM $ !$ KM $ ! b %$ ( /I $ !& / /IM $/ (& 7 %/ "( ] $% !$ ] # !& GM #/ ! $ #F $# % M $ !) /M $ !( /IM % I

F FM /IM GN G /F /IM KM /K FM M /M /M 7KQ IK 7L /K %G M /IM /I M

LM M /G #LN 7F /F %]Q IM K K IM Q I #FQ %II 7FN K KM /K M b b

& ; /N G GM /JM /CM /]M %U %IK 7F IM C LQ $IIN #IK b IM ]M /JM b Q /IM IQ %]N %IVN K IM %JM %II 7IC 7IUN C IVM L JM #CN IFN M Q M L M /N /N b

$ $ $/ ##

# #

%= $= = = $ = %= $ = %= /=

$ !' $ $ ! !' !$ %$ ! #$ ( $ !" /

IQ M /G /I N KN FM b I

I b /K /IM IM %C L I M

KN LN K M GN /G /F /CM G L IIM $IFQ JM /U /G /L L UQ

$ /

$

KM IM /KM /G / FN KM I /K

/S / ,IV N E 7I E K E/ G E / IKV :5, *56 [ / X.C D 5E %I E E/ F E #G/ IIU 3 -? 6 $d / U ^ E /K E 7G E G E G/ IIU ', *56

IKF $ /= $ !" K /K M b IQ IKG $% = 7 IM IM I b M IKI $# 7= #7 ! I IM M GM /GN

#g / IV $_ +L $` +C #` +]

IIJ IIU IKK IIU

^

% 7

E /K E /K E G E G

E %I E 7K E F E 7K

E K E F E K E #F

E / / E/7G E F E I

IIJ +5 .++6 / IIL \&+ @5 ++ II] \ )' -% ( III \?- &@ 3

#$ $ $ $

$ = $ = = $%=

$% (% (( !& $/ (&

/

%KN /M

7

IM /I b /M

F b M IM

F M C IV

]M N U IFQ

6 7 6 # 6 6 6 6

!/" $" !%/"# $ !& ! / " # !

!"# !"# !(#

/

$ 6 6 % 6 6 6 6

154 ! " 7$" ! " 7 " $ !

>< :84 ' ''IKG

?=8 <,,& @

A

O P .

5 - G> A

*5

)A I ) @ AGQ , 1 + ' " - R

) W +' X. Y + IKK O* / 7 9

) F?'+ *.

A

GM .

5 - Z

) + '-" W +' X. Y + IKV O* .

A ) +-]N3A 1A' 1

N .

5 - GN / 1 - " '++5 W +' X. Y + IIC O $ 9' A IM A )IN A' * - M 1 ' +5" W +' X. Y + IKI O % < )'

Y Q '

AN3 R )

'M ' 1 - " '++5 W +' X. Y + IIL O % / 3' -

* 5IM 1 1 GM9 R * ' Q / 1 - " @

? )+ IK] O

. '@M& - a.

Q&. (

)GM A' - / 1 - " ? )+ IIL O P 7 .

5 - IM +' ' Z 5@ ) '@AK 9 R - @' " .++ . ? )+ IIJ O 7 ?' ' -KQ - -' A FQ .

5 - N 9' +" '++5 ? )+ IKK O P 7 .

5 - Q +-' - GN3

1 A* (] ' ')'

' + ? )+ IIL O 3 R )

'IQ .

5 - IN + 'Z ,.)

)' +5 ' + '- IIF O # ' +

) N ' Q; a ( IM / 1 - " '+ '- IIC O 7 & ) + 5IM .

5 - IN&. (

)IN / 1 - " A +- '- IIL O 7 ' N3' Q

-+5 +' -LQ 9' + @" '- ' + 5a-IIJ O $ < + 1 +-IN '@-'5N ++' - R

K 3 - " @

&' a'IIU O

A . IM 5) ' K9 5'+' '.+ GM & '- -

.

&' a'IKV O / # 8--

) LN ++' - R

IQ -

'+' ' M & '+( - @' " )'R 1'5 &' a'IK] O % % A Y'@@ G9

'5F + ' ' +5@ Q ' ' +5" &' a'IK] O P # .

5 - Q 1 .

-+' -I A + -) GQ ' +5 * 1

R'+ '- IIC O P 8R

)' L .

5 - GQ 1 ' *' -IN / 1 - @" - * &' a'IIJ O ' .+ N 1 .

-+' -Z .

5 - Q &@ - ' +" )' +5 &' a'IIJ jO P < + 1 +-b .

5 - b A +'-5 ) IM 1- A .6 . ")'

@ @ - @' 1 1 - k *' + - A '- '@' * 1 k &' a'IIC O

'+Q 1 ' *' -KN& )A @ IM 1 " / 1 - &' a'IKV O P / .

5 - M8R

)' C N ,.)

)' +5

- &' a'IIC O ' .+ b&'

+ ' KQ .

5 - IN . @ -" )' / &' a'IIU O / ? -')+ '- FQ& ' + YGQ .

5 - F / 1 - " &' a'IIC O P .

5 - L ' 5+ JM3' (5 + R G , 1 " -- . : a'IKI jO # % + ' ' +5@ IM? -')+ '- Q,5 R N , - 1 - " &' a'IKG O P ' .+ IQ&(5 'JN .

5 - I <.

- = " +- * &' a'IK] O P 8 @ '( Q 1' -FN .

5 - LN & @' /1" &' a'IK] O P $ .

5 - UQ? -1'5 '-Q& A'1Z @- * (" ' - /1" + ' * . A - ' k '+( -

A' - /1-k ( R = k '-5 - R &' a'IK] O # .

5 - IQ8 @ '( b ' .+ b @ ' " - R &' a'IKG O 8 @ '( M .

5 - JM:

'

I . @ - ' ' &' a'IKK O 7 ' .+ KN .

5 - M ' (5IN ' ')'

' + 0 +' - - A .)A - X.'+

'

2 &' a'IKK O / < + 1 +-b 1 .+ . AG A' KM

)' " 1 - " &' a'IKK O P .

5 - N&@ A - R +G (

*

CM . @ - ' " - R

) &' a'IIJ O $ .

5 - U&@ A - R +K;

a.

N 3A ' ( -" -- . &' a'IIU O P .

5 - IFQ )A@ -IQ + A@ AFM 3A ' ( -" -- .

m #h % + )- E %F =% h % + E G =$ m 7h % + E $I = % h % + E K = /h % + E K = # #S % + E %K /= m S % + )- E =7 [ % + E %K /= m 7[ %: E I = $ / d % 7 E ) = 7d % E $F = $ m d % E $F =

Past Performances Courtesy BRISNET.com - Kentucky Derby Winners 2003-2015

# %

$ # 7

% 7

$ # 7 # # $ % / % % # $ $

# #

% 7

7 #

/ 7

155

FREE, BECAUSE YOU DESERVE IT – CLICK ‘EM

156

FREE, BECAUSE YOU DESERVE IT – CLICK ‘EM