7
Conclusions
Discussion of our findings The economic evaluation summarized in this book demonstrates that VTO’s R&D investments in NiMH and Li-ion battery technologies used in EDVs has been socially valuable. Gross benefits from fuel savings were quantified first for EDVs on the road between 1999 and 2012 ($3,433 million [2012$]), and second to account for these vehicles’ remaining useful life from 2013 through 2022 ($4,217 million [2012$]) because these vehicles have an expected useful life of 11 years. The benefits calculated were only for VTO’s contribution and therefore are 100 percent attributable to VTO. When compared with VTO R&D investment costs of $971 million (2012$) from 1992 through 2012, the economic evaluation metrics for benefits through 2012 are: • • •
NPV of benefits: $506 million, discounted at 7 percent; BCR: 2.03-to-1, discounted at 7 percent; and IRR: 14.3 percent.
When those same investment costs are compared with the benefits estimated through 2022, for those vehicles on the road as of December 31, 2012, the evaluation metrics are: • • •
NPV of benefits: $1,294 million, discounted at 7 percent; BCR: 3.63-to-1, discounted at 7 percent; and IRR: 17.7 percent.
This second set of performance measures is more representative, because the continued operation of EDVs on the road as of December 2012 through the end of their effective useful lives is reasonably certain. In addition, we find that: •
Over the period from 1999 through 2012, 44 percent of market adopted EDVs from 1992 through 2012 were, on average, attributable to VTO’s R&D investments.
