The Nail, December 2023

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THE

NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Brandon Rickman Vice President Jim Hysen Secretary/Treasurer Kelly Beasley Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Kim Grayson

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 9 Installation Banquet set for this month in Franklin

The association’s biggest night of the year returns Thursday, December 7th. RSVP now for the 2023 Builders First Source Installation and Awards Banquet, Thursday, December 7th at the Franklin Marriott Cool Springs.

11 Chili Cook-off and 2024 Elections held last month

The association’s annual Chili Cook-off and 2024 General Elections were held last month at the HBAMT making for very festive evening.

We’ve got all the winners here.

14 Sponsorships available for December’s big event

Register now to participate in biggest night of the year! Sponsor the Annual Installation Banquet by signing up today.

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 17 SPIKE Club Report 18 December Calendar 18 Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER: Don’t miss the HBAMT’s big events this month. The Annual Installation Banquet will be held December 7th (see page nine), and the HBAMT’s Holiday Office Party is set for December 14th (see page sixteen).

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NEWS&INFO

New home sales down in October

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levated mortgage rates that averaged 7.62% in October per Freddie Mac, the highest rate since 2000, depressed buyer demand and pushed down new home sales in October.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in October fell 5.6% to a 679,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, following a notable downward revision in September, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in October was up 17.7% from a year ago.

“New home sales fell back in October as interest rates moved higher,” said Alicia Huey, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “Despite the challenging conditions, sales are up 4.6% on a year-to-date basis due to a lack of inventory in the resale market.”

“Median new home prices have moved lower as new home size has decreased in 2023,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Combined with sales incentives and a lack of resale inventory, demand has remained solid in 2023 and should improve in 2024 as interest rates move lower.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales con-

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tract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed.

In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the October reading of 679,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in October increased to the highest level since January, up 8.3% from the previous month, to 439,000.

This represents a 7.8 months’ supply at the current building pace. A measure near a 6 months’ supply is considered balanced. Of total inventory, including new and existing homes, newly-built homes made up 30% of all single-family homes available for sale in October – compared to a 12% historical average.

The median new home sale price in October was $409,300, down 3.1% from September, and down 17.6% compared to a year ago. Pricing is down both due to builder incentive use and a shift towards building slightly smaller homes. As a result, 33% of sales were priced between $300,000 to less than $400,000, compared to a year ago when just 20% of sales were in that range.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 9.5% in the Northeast, 5.8% in the South and 2.5% in the West, while sales are down 0.3% in the Midwest. n

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NAIL For advertising rates and information, or to secure your ad, please email jargo@hbamt.org with your questions and requests.

Builder sentiment down, but better conditions are in view

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igh mortgage rates that approached 8% earlier this month continue to hammer builder confidence, but recent economic data suggest housing conditions may improve in the coming months.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in November fell six points to 34 in November, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the fourth consecutive monthly drop in builder confidence, as sentiment levels have declined 22 points since July and are at their lowest level since December 2022. Nearly the entire HMI data for November was collected before the latest Consumer Price Index was released and showed that inflation is moderating.

“The rise in interest rates since the end of August has dampened builder views of market conditions, as a large number of prospective buyers were priced out of the market,” said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey. “Higher shortterm interest rates have increased the cost of financing for home builders and land developers, adding another headwind for housing supply in a market low on resale inventory. While the Federal Reserve is fighting inflation, state and

local policymakers could also help by reducing the regulatory burdens on the cost of land development and home building, thereby allowing more attainable housing supply to the market.”

“While builder sentiment was down again in November, recent macroeconomic data point to improving conditions for home construction in the coming months,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The 10-year Treasury rate moved back to the 4.5% range for the first time since late September, which will help bring mortgage rates close to or below 7.5%. Given the lack of existing home inventory, somewhat lower mortgage rates will price-in housing demand and likely set the stage for improved builder views of market conditions in December.”

NAHB is forecasting approximately a 5% increase for single-family starts in 2024 as financial conditions ease with improving inflation data in the months ahead.

But with mortgage rates running above 7% since mid-August, per Freddie Mac data, many builders continue to reduce home prices to boost sales. In November, 36% of builders reported cutting home prices, up from 32%

Single-family housing starts fall flat in October

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ingle-family construction held steady in October as high mortgage rates depressed demand but more buyers turned to new homes because of a lack of existing inventory.

Overall housing starts increased 1.9% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.37 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The October reading of 1.37 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 0.2% to a 970,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. However, single-family starts are down 10.6% year-to-date. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings

and condos, increased 6.3% to an annualized 402,000 pace.

“Despite higher interest rates in October, the lack of existing home inventory supported demand for new construction in the fall,” said Alicia Huey, NAHB chairman. “Builders continue to grapple with elevated construction costs and growing concerns about regulatory costs, such as proposed higher building code requirements connected to FHA mortgages.”

“The construction data in October continue to reflect that despite multidecade lows for housing affordability, the market continues to lack attainable inventory that only the home building industry can provide,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “And with the 10-year Treasury rate now back in the 4.5% range, we are forecasting gains for single-family home building in the months

in the previous two months. This is the highest share of builders cutting prices during this cycle, tying the previous high point set in November 2022. The average price reduction in November remained at 6%, unchanged from the previous month.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three major HMI indices posted declines in November. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell six points to 40, the component charting sales expectations in the next six months dropped five points to 39 and the gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers dipped five points to 21.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 49, the Midwest dropped three points to 36, the South fell seven points to 42 and the West posted a six-point decline to 35. n

ahead and an outright gain for construction in 2024.”

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 22% lower in the Northeast, 11.2% lower in the Midwest, 7.8% lower in the South and 15.3% lower in the West.

Overall permits increased 1.1% to a 1.49 million unit annualized rate in October.

Single-family permits increased 0.5% to a 968,000 unit rate. However, single-family permits are down 10.6% year-to-date. Multifamily permits increased 2.2% to an annualized 519,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a yearto-date basis, permits are 19.5% lower in the Northeast, 16.7% lower in the Midwest, 11.3% lower in the South and 15.8% lower in the West.

There are currently 669,000 single-family homes under construction, down almost 15% from a year ago. In contrast, there are more than one million apartments under construction, near the highest total since 1973. n

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Alex Smith and Chris Baldwin, first place winners from Nashville Fireplace.

2023 Chili Cook-Off & Election Winners!

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he HBAMT’s Annual Chili Cook-off was held last month in conjunction with the 2024 General Elections. The event enjoyed the largest number of cooking teams in event history as well as a large crowd of members and friends who enjoyed the festivities and voted for next year’s leadership and their favorite chili dishes.

An expert panel determined the top three teams awarded. First place honors went to the “Sizzle & Spice Sorcerers” team from Nashville Fireplace. Second place went to the “Roll Tide Reapers” team from Regent Homes. And third place was awarded to the “Gigabit Gourmet Chili” team from United Communications.

The United Communications team also took home the People’s Choice Award, determined by ballots cast by event attendees.

HBAMT Election winners who will be sworn in during the Installa-

John Giovannetti, second place winner from the Regent Homes team.

Sam Mangione, Kimberly Goodwin, Brandon Fisher and Ethan Poe, third place winners and People’s Choice Award winners from the United Communications team.

tion and Awards Banquet (see page nine) included the following: President: Jim Hysen Vice President: Kelly Beasley Secretary/Treasurer: Eli Routh Local Directors: Derek Budde, Danny Clawson, Jody Derrick, Christina James, Jimmie Johnson, Jr., John Nehrenz, Lauren Pennington, and Wiggs Thompson.

State Directors: Kelly Beasley, Derek Budde, Jordan Clark, Jim Hysen, and Eli Routh.

National Directors: Jordan Clark, Jimmy Franks, Trey Lewis, Eli Routh, and Nick Wisniewski.

Congratulations to all of the big winners during the evening! n

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Lumberjack Chili Team Tennessee Valley Homes

Smokin’ Hot Mud Chili Team Irving Materials, Inc.

Red Hot Chili Preppers Nashville Roofing

No Tootin’ Chili Intex Contracting

Chunky Cowboy Chili California Closets

Gigabit Gourmet Chili United Communications

Red Hot Chili Preparers US Bank Home Mortgage

The Spice Girls Generator Supercenter

Chillin’ Turkey 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty

Cumin’ Get It Goat Turf

Sizzle & Spice Sorcerers Nashville Fireplace

Elite Chili Elite Roofing

Marketing & Moonshine Bacon Chili Marketing WorX, LLC

SLS Services Chili SLS Services

Cluckin’ Good Chili Arcxis

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Spice It Up Kenny & Company

Roll Tide Reapers Regent Homes

Chili X Dominion Siding

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The 2023 HBAMT Installation & Awards Banquet GENERAL SPONSOR

- Logo on all printed material - Two tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet $800 - Recognition at Banquet + Four (4) beverage tickets

PLATINUM SPONSOR

- Larger logo on all printed material - Two (2) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet $1,400 - Eight (8) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet

- Dual logos on all printed material RECEPTION - Signage at Reception and Banquet SPONSOR - Four (4) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet $6,000 (2 available) - 30 (30) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet TITLE SPONSOR (1 available)

SOLD

- Headliner on all printed material with logo at Reception and Banquet - Welcome everyone & introduce entertainment $9,400 - Table at Installation & Awards Banquet (8 tickets) - Sixty (50) beverage tickets of your choice

I want to sponsor the 2023 Banquet (12/7) at the level checked above.

Company name: ____________________________________________________ Your Name: ________________________________________________________ Your number: ____________________ Your email: _________________________ Credit Card ________________________________________________________ Credit Card # ___________________________________ Exp. _______________ Credit Card V-Code _______________ The “v-code” is found on the back of the card, usually printed or embossed atop or near the signature strip. It is comprised of three digits found to the right of a longer number.

Signature _________________________________________________________

Return this form and your company’s logo via email to cnicley@hbamt.org Mail: HBAMT 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027 14 The NAIL l December, 2023

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SPIKE REPORT David Hughes 203 Randall Smith 191 Tonya Esquibel 169 Jim McLean 166 Steve Cates 148 Harry Johnson 146 Life Spikes Twenty-three SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of October 31, 2023.

Top 20 Big Spikes Mitzi Spann 795 Terry Cobb 570 Trey Lewis 563 James Carbine 507 Jimmy Franks 507 Jennifer Earnest 396 David Crane 358 Kevin Hale 303 Brandon Rickman 270 Reese Smith III 261 Nick Wisniewski 259 Davis Lamb 232 Steve Shalibo 221 Sonny Shackelford 219

Jordan Clark 144 C.W. Bartlett 138 Michael Dillon 131 Dave McGowan 130 B.J. Hanson 122 Joe Dalton 120 Justin Hicks 118 John Zelenak 118 Duane Vanhook 117 Edsel Charles 115 Wiggs Thompson 112 Jim Hysen 100 Sam Henley 92 Jody Derrick 88 Ryan Meade 88 Keith Porterfield 84 Christina James 77 Erin Richardson 77 Beth Sturm 77 Ron Schroeder 75 Nelson Bordeau 71 Andrew Neuman 71

Lisa Underwood 70 Rachel Holloway 68 Bryan Sebring 56 John Broderick 55 Frank Jones 54 Rick Olszewski 54 John Ganschow 53 Ricky Scott 45 Margaret Tolbert 44 Danny Clawson 39 Kelvey Benward 32 Don Mahone 31 Perry Pratt 30 Jeffrey Caruth 28 Tammy Chambers 28 Eli Routh 28 Maverick Green 26 Spikes Tim Woodward 22 George Simpson 19 Nicole Bird 15 Rob Pease 15 Randy Arnold 14 Kelly Beasley 14 John Nehrenz 14 Curt Haynes 12 Clint Mitchell 11 Chris Richey 11 Robert Goodall 7 McClain Franks 6

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DECEMBER CALENDAR Sunday

3

Monday

4

Tuesday

5

Wednesday

6

Thursday

Friday

7

Saturday

1

2

8

9

15

16

Annual Installation & Awards Banquet

10

11

12

13

14 SMC meeting HBAMT Holiday Party

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

1

2

3

4

5

6

CHAPTERS & COUNCILS CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney Dickson County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Lisa Underwood Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel Metro/Nashville Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Robertson County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

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SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton The Sumner County Chapter typically meets at the new Hendersonville Library. Future meetings to be announced.

Next meeting: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Christina James Williamson County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Margaret Tolbert Wilson County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

COUNCILS HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Eli Routh The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets at varying locations throughout the year.

Next meeting: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL Infill Builders Council details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Kelvey Benward The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: THURSDAY, DECEMBER 14TH. Topic: SMC Holiday Breakfast Mix and Mingle! Bring your favorite breakfast dish to share.

SMC Members Free thanks to Goodall Homes!

Non-SMC members: $15 with RSVP; $20 w/o RSVP RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

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