post selection Sun analysis review

Post selection SUN analysis May 2018 TAMPINES GREENVINES Customized report for Mr. Desmond Koh

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Understanding HEAT issue

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WHAT is west sun exposure?

Ever wonder why is it so important to get a residential unit with minimal or no west sun exposure? Let us take a step backward to understand what is west sun exposure. As we all know, Singapore is located along the Earth’s equator. Therefore, we are closest to the Sun from any point on Earth. This also implies that we will get the most direct sunlight from the Sun which consist of components like UV (ultra violet), IR (infra-red) and visible light. As the Sun rises from the East and gradually set in the West (due to Earth rotation along its axis), we will get the most sunlight with high level of UV of up to 5 hours from 12pm to 4pm (based on NEA recorded data on a little cloud cover day). The heat we feel from sunlight is mainly from IR rather than UV but UV will cause more harm to human and material than IR which is why we are trying to avoid the afternoon sun (west sun).

WHY is it important to avoid choosing a hot house?

Does

it occur to you that every time you reach home, you will reach out for the air-con controller to activate the ceiling fan to cool down the internal space. A hot house happens when the residential unit is exposed to direct sunlight, which carries UV and IR. UV and IR transmit through materials like window and wall, though the former will allow higher transmission. More building surfaces expose to direct sunlight during the peak period (12pm to 4pm) will allow more UV and IR to transmit through.

Prolong UV exposure will degrade building materials externally and internally. A simple scenario can be traced to the discolouration of your curtain when you compare both sides of the fabric, cracked floor tiles, cracked leather sofa, broken plastic materials, discolouration of floor tiles, etc. All these will lead to higher maintenance cost in the long run due to higher wear and tear.

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Higher indoor air temperature will also translate to higher energy consumption to disperse the additional heat trapped indoors. Air conditioning will need to work extra hard; ceiling fan need to turn faster and with it more energy being consumed and more cost involved which includes maintaining and replacing the airconditioning units. Attached chart showing the quarterly household electricity tariff from 2017 till 2019 with data from SP Service Singapore shows a visible yearly increment in terms of energy prices and this trend will continue with fluctuated raw material cost (natural gas) to generate electricity as well as accompanied sales tax.

Warm weather will persist in the long run. Attached is a graphical presentation

by Straits Times with data from MSS (Meteorological Service Singapore) clearly reflect a warmer last 10 years (2009-2018) compare to all previous year on record. If the weather pattern persists or getting worse, all the above mentioned will increase exponentially. To mitigate or reduce the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect which cause warmer weather in Singapore, a crossinstitutional initiative named ‘Cooling Singapore’ have been set up to develop a roadmap to achieve this (www.coolingsingapore.sg).

Difficulty to sell the property in the future. The current method of selling property will change drastically when the Singapore government decided to release work done under ‘Virtual Singapore’ in the near future. Virtual Singapore (https://www.nrf.gov.sg/programmes/virtual-singapore) is a $73m initiative by NRF (National Research Foundation) to develop a dynamic 3D model of Singapore with collaborative data. Data such as how many hours of daylight exposure for every single Copyright © 2020 by chua.soon.ching@hausanalyst.com All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of the copyright owner of this publication

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unit will be made available for completed housing units, this will allow informed decision making by potential buyers. In short, if you buy a hot house now, you will find it hard to sell in later date as buyers will know how bad the situation will be.

HOW to avoid the west sun exposure?

Avoid west facing. To avoid west sun exposure, home buyer should avoid buying into units with main façade (the surface where the living room and most bedroom windows align) facing North West (NW), West (W) as well as South West (SW). Buying a housing unit with these facing will have to live with at least 7 to 12 months of direct west sun exposure. Vertical and horizontal sun shading devices will have limited impact in reducing the direct sunlight exposure as the location, material and design of sun shade varies and may render it useless.

Avoid highest floor unit. The highest floor unit will come with additional surface expose to direct sunlight which is the roof. Most of the flat roof is made of reinforced concrete (older HDB and private condominiums) top up with additional layer of pitch roof (with slope for rain water run off) to supposedly reduce heat intake. The reason why solar cell being install on the roof top should provide a direct answer on why you should avoid it. The roof surface being perpendicular to sun angle, will absorb the most sunlight and of course, heat. The secondary pitch roof with slope at 1:50 gradient (which was introduced in all new HDB blocks) may reduce heat intake but not totally omitting it, thus the heat issue is still very much exist. The direct link can be traced to the pricing of the top 2 highest level units in almost all new HDB BTO developments which usually being priced the same to allow discount to the top most level.

Avoid higher floor unit for mid to super high-rise residential development.

A high-rise building being defined as building with at least 23m high (8 storeys high in HDB BTO context) while a super high-rise residential development being defined by SCDF (Singapore Civil Defence Force) as a residential building of more than 40 storeys high. As building goes up higher, direct heat intake from sunlight will increase exponentially. Therefore, air conditioning units have been widely used to reduced indoor heat. While the indoor units work by cooling down the indoor space, the outdoor units will dispel the hot air. When all units install air conditioning units and hot air being dispel constantly (and hot air rises and suck in by the higher unit’s outdoor unit), the upper units will get the most additional heat impact from this recurrent action.

Conventional wisdom pointed to choosing either North or South facing units. All developments come in a mixture of units with different facing, while avoiding the west facing will be crucial, not all homeowners will have that luxury as the selection system may not allow them to avoid one. Then the 2nd best option would be choosing the either North or South facing units. Many would think or have been made to believe that North or South facing units will not get any west sun exposure. Elementary science will tell you that the Earth rotate on its axis at a tilted angle of 23.5 degrees while orbiting the Sun 365 days a year. The Earth rotation at an angle will translate to at least 5 months of exposure to west sun for either North or South facing units. Yes, you can only minimise the exposure, but not avoiding it.

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Temperatures in Singapore could hit 40°C as early as 2045: Scientists TODAY online PUBLISHED JUL 04, 2019 UPDATED 05 JULY, 2019 Low You Jin

Raymond Limantara/TODAYSingaporeans could be faced with searing temperatures of up to 40°C as early as 2045, according to scientific analysis conducted here.

SINGAPORE - By 2045, Singaporeans could face some days of the year when temperatures soar as high as a scorching 40°C. At best, this sweltering scenario could be delayed to as late as 2065 onwards, based on simulations conducted by a team of scientists at the Centre for Climate Research Singapore, which is part of the Meteorological Service Singapore.

Dr Muhammad Eeqmal Hassim, a senior research scientist at the centre, told TODAY on Thursday (July 4) that this is the worst case scenario if the world continues to emit greenhouse gases at a rate that is “business as usual”.

“It (days of 40°C) won’t be a one-off event. There'll be some days starting from as early as 2045. And that's what we saw in the results. Some models are later. And so that's why we tend to give a range (that is) as early as 2045, possibly, or as late as 2065 onwards,’’ he said.

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The scientist’s dire warnings come on the back of a recent four-day heatwave across western Europe that killed at least seven people.

Reuters reported that the French region of Gard was the worst-hit, suffering a maximum of 45.9°C on June 28 — France’s hottest day on record.

Scores of fires burned some 550 hectares (5.5km²) in the country’s southern region and destroyed several houses and vehicles.

Closer to home, Malaysia was gripped by its own heatwave in the middle of March. "Level 1" alerts were issued by the Malaysian Meteorological Department to as many as 10 areas when the mercury hit maximum temperatures of between 35 and 37°C for three consecutive days. Only Level 2 and Level 3 alerts are more serious, with Level 3 applying when temperatures top 40°C for three straight days.

The dry spell also saw water levels at several dams hovering at critically low levels.

IT’S ‘WARMING EVERYWHERE’ Singapore may have escaped heatwaves of this magnitude in recent times, but Dr Eeqmal stressed that the island is just getting warmer.

He said that in the last 10 years, January has been “as warm, or warmer” than what May was in the 1970s. “Our coolest month now is as warm as what our hottest month was then.”

He added: “If you talk to elderly people, they would have a recollection of how much cooler Singapore was (when they were younger).”

Underscoring Dr Eeqmal’s point, a British climate professor has created a project titled Show Your Stripes. The colourful graphic by Reading University’s Professor Ed Hawkins shows to the layperson how much their country has warmed over the last century.

This chart, compiled by Professor Ed Hawkins of Reading University's Department of Meteorology, shows average temperatures in Singapore from 1901, on the far left, to 2018 on the far right. Blue signifies cooler temperatures, and red warmer temperatures.

Illustration: https://showyourstripes.info/

In his chart for Singapore, which starts from 1901 and ends in 2018, about two-thirds of it comprises various hues of blue – an indicator of cooler years.

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It is only in the last one-third that more red bars start appearing, with the darkest shade of red towards the far right of the chart, which is roughly now.

Dr Hawkins told TODAY in an email interview that he created the graphic to show that “our planet is warming everywhere”.

“Everyone can look at these visualisations and instantly understand how temperatures in their own location have changed,” he said.

To put it in numbers, Dr Eeqmal said that Singapore’s temperature has increased by 0.29°C, on average, over the past four decades.

‘NEW TEMPERATURE REGIME’ The numbers may seem minuscule, but the effects on the environment manifest in a huge way through changing weather patterns and more extreme weather.

For instance, Dr Eeqmal said Singapore is experiencing “heavy rain events that are not only more intense, but more frequent”.

Minimum temperatures are also on the rise. “One of the signs of global warming is that night time temperatures are increasing as well. So people are getting less relief.”

The last decade has also been the hottest decade on record, he said. “We are getting into a new temperature regime.”

Aside from the weather, Nanyang Technological University’s (NTU) Associate Professor Adam Switzer weighed in on how else an increase in the thermometer will affect Singapore.

As it is, climate change is causing faraway glaciers to melt and the ramifications are being seen here.

Dr Switzer, who is a principal investigator at NTU’s Asian School of the Environment, said the Republic’s tide gauge network has shown a “general trend” that sea levels are rising.

Warmer oceans also cause coral reefs to bleach and die, which in turn affects the food supply.

TODAY previously reported that warming temperatures can lead to more dengue mosquitoes being bred as well.

Dr Switzer said some people continue to deny that climate change exists.

“Unfortunately, even with overwhelming evidence of climate change, there are certainly people who, for a variety of reasons, will continue to ignore the facts placed in front of them,” he said.

Still, he acknowledged that there are those who want to face the challenge and address climate issues.

The challenge, he said, was to provide them with clear science-based guidelines.

WE NEED TO ACT NOW

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Yet, even in a hypothetical situation where leaders of the world collectively put a stop to carbon emissions today, Dr Switzer said it would “take decades” to see the changes in the atmosphere.

“Some impacts like sea-level rise would take centuries to equilibrate, but that is not a reason to not act now. The longer we wait, the more urgent the problem will become.”

While the future might look bleak, there is a growing awareness among Singaporeans about the need to tackle climate change, according to a non-profit organisation made up of lay people with an interest in the environment.

Earth Society’s vice president Low Chip Khoon also found that in their various outreach programmes to educate the public on the effects of climate change, they realised that young people seem to care more about climate change than others.

“Perhaps, they know that if we don’t do anything about climate change, they would not have a liveable planet to live in.”

CREATING A SNOWBALL EFFECT Climate change might seem like an abstract idea that is beyond most people’s means to tackle, but there are practical everyday solutions that can be adopted that can eventually lead to a snowball effect, said Dr Eeqmal.

For example, he said something as simple as converting to LED lights is not only more cost effective, but energy efficient.

“Turning your air-conditioners thermostat up to 25°C or 26°C, instead of 22°C, reduces the amount of electricity required for cooling as well.”

While it might be hard for Singaporeans who love to travel, the fact is that aircraft generate a lot of greenhouse gases. Scientists agree that people should reduce their flying as much as possible in order to reduce emissions.

If that is not possible, an adjustment in people's diet would also help, said Mr Low. “One major action we can do is to reduce meat consumption by half to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.

A 2018 report by The Guardian stated that food production causes great damage to the environment, via greenhouse gases from livestock, deforestation and water shortages from farming, and “vast ocean dead zones from agricultural pollution”.

If people do their part to mitigate the effects of climate change, Dr Eeqmal said the projections for Singapore would be a lot less extreme.

“Under this mitigation scenario, our daily average temperature would only reach up to 29 or 30°C by the end of the century, which is what we are currently experiencing, and something we can tolerate.”

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Urban warming worsening problem in Singapore, action needed while studies are ongoing: Researchers TODAY online PUBLISHED JUL 12, 2018 UPDATED 12 JULY, 2018 Neo Chai Chin

Researchers of the Cooling Singapore project surveyed residents at Punggol East in February and May this year.

SINGAPORE — Government agencies and researchers have embarked on studies to make Singapore cooler, with surprising findings already unearthed along the way.

Besides the effects of climate change, Singapore is hotter than it should be because of the urban heat island (UHI) effect.

At certain times of the day, built-up areas can be more than 7°C hotter than areas which are more rural. This is due to heat trapped from energy consumed by air-conditioning systems and vehicles, for instance, the presence of less vegetation, and building materials that absorb and store heat from the sun.

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Mr Peter Ho, chairman of the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), said that urban warming is a complex problem that poses a long-term risk, but it is “not easy to see”.

The urban heat island effect across Singapore.PHOTO: Dr Muhammad Omer Mughal and Dr Li XianXiang, Sailin Zhong, CIVAL, Cooling Singapore project

Speaking at the Cooling Singapore symposium on Wednesday (July 11), he highlighted that addressing the UHI effect is “vital to maintaining or improving the liveability of our city”.

“As we continue to urbanise, provide jobs and homes to a growing population, urban warming will only increase unless we take steps to address the problem.”

Singapore ranks second in the world in population density, after Monaco, Mr Ho noted. If unchecked, further warming can increase the risk of heat-related fatalities.

Together with the URA and the Housing and Development Board (HDB), researchers began modelling studies this year on areas in the Jurong Lake District, Punggol housing estate and a new area to be developed in the Central Business District (CBD) near Asia Square.

They want to see how different mitigation measures can be applied, and the benefits of each measure.

The researchers said that having plants on the facade of buildings can improve the level of comfort felt outdoors by people within a 4m range, but this has little or no impact at greater distances.

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Void decks at public housing blocks can have a positive impact, especially in the late afternoon and evening. And new developments can change air patterns and increase thermal stress, depending on weather conditions.

Some results have been counter-intuitive. For instance, more vegetation does not always improve the comfort felt outdoors by people, because trees can reduce wind speed and increase humidity, the researchers said.

The Jurong Lake District and CBD case studies — done with the URA — aim to get the best “urban parameters” for outdoor thermal comfort, they added. Actions have focused mainly on the orientation and arrangement of buildings, with the aim of considering shadow and spaces for airflow.

The Punggol case study, done with the HDB, aims to analyse the impact of mitigation measures, such as retrofitting, for an existing development.

The researchers have also found that more reflective roofs can achieve up to a 1.29°C reduction in temperature, and increasing density will lead to higher temperatures of up to 1.4°C in certain areas at certain times of the day.

Preliminary findings – which will require more research to validate – showed industrial areas lead to a maximum increase of 0.6°C and the impact on neighbouring areas can reach 0.2°C. The studies are part of the ambitious Cooling Singapore research project, which started last year and is led by the Singapore-ETH Centre. Funded by the National Research Foundation’s Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (Create) programme, its collaborators are the National University of Singapore, Smart and TUM Create, which comprises research teams from Nanyang Technological University and Germany’s Technical University of Munich.

A 14-member UHI taskforce that includes representatives from the HDB, URA, Land Transport Authority and universities has been set up.

RESIDENTS SAY NO TO COOL BUS STOPS The project has also captured the voices of residents here.

Researchers held a workshop for 48 HDB dwellers, and surveyed more than 400 Punggol residents face-to-face between February and June this year on their preferred mitigation strategies and activities they would like to do outdoors, among other questions.

Green streetscapes and green facades were among their preferred choices, while nobody was in favour of cool bus stops.

Ms Lea Ruefenacht of the Singapore-ETH Centre, who is one of four researchers on the citizen participation surveys, said that the respondents preferred improving the traffic situation and spending as little time as possible at bus stops.

An online survey will be conducted from next month, and the researchers hope to get about 2,000 respondents, Ms Ruefenacht said.

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In the private sector, Singapore District Cooling — a subsidiary of utility provider SP Group — could try out outdoor cooling systems at an event space near the Marina Bay Sands integrated resort with the URA, and at an al fresco cafe later this year, its deputy managing director Foo Yang Kwang said.

On Tuesday, HDB and SP Group signed an agreement to explore the development of a centralised cooling system for flats in the new Tengah HDB town. It is envisaged as a more energy-efficient service to which residents may subscribe, instead of using conventional air-conditioning systems.

Based on its calculations, savings of 30 to 35 per cent are possible, Mr Foo said on Wednesday.

The urban warming problem is not only about temperature. Cooling Singapore’s principal investigator Peter Edwards said that there is good evidence to suggest it has contributed to a marked increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall.

“Singapore has a very substantial UHI effect and it’s getting worse, and it clearly is going to be important to do something about it,” he said.

While more research is needed, “the implementation needs to begin now”, Professor Edwards said.

“We can’t wait until the final best research results are in. The research and the implementation will have to go hand in hand.”

CLARIFICATION: In the previous version of the story, we quoted Dr Juan Angel Acero of the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (Smart). Cooling Singapore has clarified that his quotes should be attributed to the researchers in general. The finding that industrial areas lead to a maximum increase in temperature of 0.6°C and the impact on neighbouring areas can reach 0.2°C is preliminary, and more research is needed to validate it.

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HDB aims for smarter, cooler flats with research collaborations TODAY online PUBLISHED JUL 23, 2019 UPDATED 24 JULY, 2019 Kimberly Lim

The Housing and Development Board said that rising temperatures have made it more challenging to reduce heat gain in daylight and cool buildings in an energy-efficient manner.

SINGAPORE — The Housing and Development Board (HDB) has signed two research collaborations with companies to make flats more resilient to climate change and better suited to smart technologies.

One, with material science firm Evonik, will study ways to improve the thermal insulation of flats so that they can better deal with rising temperatures and enhance the performance of concrete for 3D printing.

The other, with technology company V-Key, will look into developing an open and secure ecosystem in HDB’s smart-enabled flats that enables the use of a variety of smart appliances across brands.

BETTER HEAT INSULATION Rising temperatures have made it more challenging to reduce heat gain in daylight and cool buildings in an energy-efficient manner, HDB said in a statement on Tuesday (July 23).

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One possible solution: Evonik’s Calostat, a silicon-based material which is sustainable, noncombustible, pressure-resistant and able to repel water.

It is already adopted in developments in Germany, Switzerland and London, and HDB will study the incorporation of the material into the secondary roof panel of HDB buildings to improve its thermal insulation.

Trials will assess how the material will affect other properties of the secondary roof panel, such as its structural strength and water-repelling capabilities, before it could potentially be applied to other parts beyond the roof.

ENHANCING CONCRETE FOR 3D PRINTING The use of 3D printing could offer more design options for HDB developments, raise construction productivity and reduce the dependency on conventional precast fabrication workers, the housing authority said.

The study with Evonik seeks to improve the strength and workability of such concrete through the use of special additives, which are known to increase the early strength, homogeneity and flowability of the concrete.

This will allow for the smooth laying of concrete and ensure that printed layers are well-bonded.

If successful, this could pave the way for new standards in the concrete pre-mix for 3D-printed components.

SMART-ENABLED FLATS HDB is also testing the use of digital infrastructure such as smart distribution boards and smart sockets.

HDB’s collaboration with V-Key will study ways to enhance the smart distribution boards in smartenabled flats, which would be useful for smart home appliances that do not have a built-in gateway.

Such appliances would include smart lighting, motion sensors and smart curtains, so that residents could, for example, have lights switched on and curtains drawn automatically when they step into a room.

Residents could also install a monitoring system for elders at home. This is a system of motion sensors that can detect and learn the movements of these persons and alert caregivers if their regular movements are not detected.

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MSS monthly surface air temperature

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Singapore mean monthly surface air temperature (MSS)

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Singapore maximum monthly surface air temperature (MSS)

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Singapore minimum monthly surface air temperature (MSS)

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Analysis results

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3pm and 5pm sun chart for #07-233 3pm

5pm

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

>50% shielded by sun shade/ other blocks Exposed to direct sun Fully shaded due to sun angle

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Reference for the sun diagram

Exposed to direct sun

Fully shaded due to sun angle

Shaded by sun shade/ other block

Exposed to direct sun

Fully shaded due to sun angle

Shaded by sun shade/ other block

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Sun and shading analysis

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unit #07-233 - 3pm

Jan 21st

Feb 21st

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Mar 21st

Apr 21st

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Tampines GreenVines 5-rm May 2018

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May 21st

Jun 21st

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Tampines GreenVines 5-rm May 2018

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Jul 21st

Aug 21st

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Tampines GreenVines 5-rm May 2018

sharmaine_loh@ymail.com

Sep 21st

Oct 21st

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Tampines GreenVines 5-rm May 2018

sharmaine_loh@ymail.com

Nov 21st

Dec 21st

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Tampines GreenVines 5-rm May 2018

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unit #07-233 - 5pm

Jan 21st

Feb 21st

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Tampines GreenVines 5-rm May 2018

sharmaine_loh@ymail.com

Mar 21st

Apr 21st

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Tampines GreenVines 5-rm May 2018

sharmaine_loh@ymail.com

May 21st

Jun 21st

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Tampines GreenVines 5-rm May 2018

sharmaine_loh@ymail.com

Jul 21st

Aug 21st

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Tampines GreenVines 5-rm May 2018

sharmaine_loh@ymail.com

Sep 21st

Oct 21st

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Tampines GreenVines 5-rm May 2018

sharmaine_loh@ymail.com

Nov 21st

Dec 21st

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