A Flexible and Resilient Future - Full Narrative

Alex Costa, Madison DeMay, Madison Lentz Serena Powell, Grace Schoenknecht, and Sarah Tengen Professor Carala Chifos Plan 3031 March 1, 2022 A Future Without Intervention Drivers of Change Our drivers of change include climate change, demand for equity, economy, and technology. The 3 drivers the group decided on are economy, transportation, and climate change.

Although climate change was an assigned driver the group had previously established that climate change was a pertinent driver to the future of Cincinnati. The descriptions below of each driver discuss the foreseen future or scenario for the City of Cincinnati in 2042.

Climate Change: As annual rainfall in Cincinnati continues to increase, stormwater runoff and flooding will begin to inflict structural and environmental damage along the Ohio River, the Mill Creek, and in neighborhoods or communities that have existing sewer overflow issues (with a potential for additional communities to begin facing the same problem). Combined sewer overflow (CSO) will become an increasingly critical issue for the city to address and allocate funds for in order to restructure our sewer system as the water quality of the Mill Creek and Ohio River declines. Agricultural fields and farms that make up a

portion of Cincinnati's food supply and local economy will begin to provide food at a lower quality as national temperatures continue to rise, creating an increase in deficiencies and health issues.

With temperatures rising the typical four seasons (summer, autumn, winter, and spring) will become less distinguishable. Snowfall and cold temperature will decrease, causing winter to feel like an extended autumn. Autumn will also continue to change with inconsistent weather forecasting such as drastic differences between daily weather conditions (windy one day, rainy the other, and hot the next). Wind patterns will continue to increase in speed and force, creating problems such as those seen in Dayton in 2018.

Figure 1 Projected Changes in Global Average Surface Temperature and Precipitation

These inconsistent changes in weather will wear down the conditions of roads and sidewalks as ice and the City's salting processes will continue to degrade city roads and increase the number of potholes. The number of adult trees in Cincinnati will decrease to make room for

new developments, but an increase in younger planted trees in an attempt to compensate for the lack of adult trees.

Figure 2 Climate Change Negative and Positive Impacts

Equity: The number of advocacy groups, and people pushing their personal beliefs, will increase through the influence and power of social media (i.e., Black Lives Matter movement). Advances in technology will inspire a new wave of magnet schools that require students to specialize at an early age, but the quality of education will remain stagnant. These educational institutions will increase in disenfranchised neighborhoods, but educational attainment will only rise by a small percentage as the quality of education does not improve (quantity vs quality). This will not address the core issue of attained education in the city, as it does not provide a proper solution to the quality of learning or incentivize kids to go to school and complete high school.

As nurses continue to be underpaid and are expected to work in strenuous conditions, the number of medical students will decrease, creating a shortage of medical personnel. This will increase the number of white wealthy nurses and doctors, extending experienced racism and

prejudice patients face today due to the lack of diverse staffing. To combat the stress and exhaustion hospitals experienced due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of little clinics around Cincinnati will increase. Although this will create increased physical access to primary health care providers to low-income families, the price of prescription drugs, co-pays, and cost of insurance will rise. Thus, continuing the endless cycle of disenfranchised groups experiencing disproportionate health issues/crises that is maintained by big pharma.

Figure 3 Social Determinants of Health

Having a strong internet connection in a household will shift from a amenity to a necessity.

Initiatives to bring broadband to all communities will increase the amount of online resources and make hybrid community engagement approaches more accessible, building better relationships between all stakeholders- developers, municipalities, residents, etc.

The price of lumber and construction material sky-rocked during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the demand remained high, increasing the likelihood that prices of construction material will remain inflated. This in turn will negatively impact the standard of quality for new housing development (with a lack of development criteria established by the City on building materials) as

well as decrease the while also decreasing the construction of affordable housing. As the quality of new housing stock decreases the current housing stock will also begin to decline along with it.

Figure 4 Equity Negative and Positive Impacts

Economy: Without proper incentives and grants provided by the city, no exponential growth in businesses and job opportunities will occur in Cincinnati. Although an increase in warehousing will spark a short wave of increased employment, warehousing generates a low number of jobs per square foot and with the advancement of technology and machinery, the need for human labor will begin to decline. This will ignite the birth and deaths of industries as the existing labor force shifts industries to find work, the advancement creates new jobs for the younger labor force to fulfill but leaves other workers behind.

Table 1 Number of Square Feet per Employee by Industry 900 800 700 600 500 400 300

200 100 0

Warehouse

Industrial

Retail

Figure 5 Economy Negative and Positive Impacts

Office

Resturant

Fast Food

Technology: Advancements in technology will create a greater demand and preference for electric cars across the region. This will initiate a demand for improved and repaired road and sidewalk conditions for drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists.

However, the City's attempt to improve pedestrian and bike infrastructure will not because they see a need for creating improved infrastructure for pedestrians, but as justification for expanding highways to make room for electric and autonomous technology (such as delivery robots) and vehicles. The focus of transportation will shift from public to private because of a lack of incentives to fund mobility, realignment of transit routes, services, and access improvements to public transit systems. Advancement in public transportation will be the increase of hybrid buses supported with little to no changes to transit service or methods to better serve the community. Congestion and commute times will increase during the construction of additional highway lanes, but hybrid work settings and technology become a viable option for workers and students.

Figure 6 Our World in Data: Computing Efficiency, 1971 to 2015

Figure 7 Technology Negative and Positive Impacts

Impacted Systems The 4 most impacted systems within our proposed future would be transportation, economy, environment, and government & social culture.

Transportation would be impacted by technological advancements.

“Technological advancements compound annual growth rate is currently set at 15.95% and projected to go up,” that will positively impact electric/self-driving cars, births of new industries, Renewable energy usage, etc. Transportation would also be directly impacted by creating or denying mobility and access which will impact equity within our region. This could result in the expanding of highways, increasing pedestrian infrastructure, increasing hybrid metro buses, and community engagement.

This can also lead to negative effects like denial of transportation for lower-income communities due to changes in bus routes, limited hours fees, access to sidewalks, crosswalks, etc.

Economy is the second system that will experience changes in 2042 from changes in demand for warehousing and manufacturing. Manufacturing accounts for 12% of the United States economy and 8.8% of employment. Manufacturing itself “generates more economic activity than any other sector” and usually pays more than other jobs that do not require a college degree, which is a reason it is predicted to grow exponentially across the United States, as college degrees become increasing more unattainable. Inequality and class division will continue to expand/grow from shifts in the economy, impacting job availability, access to health care, educational attainment, and other opportunities. . Class divisions can lead to what types of jobs, healthcare, schools, people, and opportunities individuals will have. “Class affects whether someone is going to be accepted into a particular kind of school, their likelihood of succeeding in that school, the kinds of jobs they have access to, the kinds of friends they make” Someone in a lower economic class has fewer opportunities to obtain a college education which decreases the opportunity to receive higher-paying jobs which will, in turn, lower a community's median income, lowering the cash flow and negatively impacting the economy.

The third impacted system is environmental impacts, as weather conditions and the environment continue to suffer from the forces of climate change government policies will force new developments will be required to actively combat climate change by incorporating renewable energy into their infrastructure. Climate migrants will begin to flood into the Midwest as sea-levels rise, occurrences of extreme weather increase, drought becomes more common, water scarcity increases, etc. This will increase the labor force and increase job availability within the Mid-West.

This will have positive effects on our region such as economic growth, which would lead to more

environmental projects and new housing developments with renewable energy policies attached to the new housing stock. However, this can negatively affect our environment through overcrowding and increased pollution.

Government & social groups is the final system that will change in the future of Cincinnati. Due to the increase in residents, there will be a need for equitable resources, public goods, public services, land use and zoning changes/creation. Social media will increase awareness and spark advocacy and change in the health care and educational system to meet the needs of the entire region’s population. Ensuring everyone has equitable opportunities and sufficient access to resources.

Impacts and Opportunities to Three-Tiered Structure of Region At the Mill Creek Corridor scale, the area will see attempted improvement through opportunities and impacts such as climate change, technology, equity, and economy, over time, as well as experience disappointment. The corridor communities will experience a heightened level of property damage because of Mill Creek flood and inadequate sewer infrastructure such as CSOs continued to be employed. This is only one way that the corridor will experience continued disenfranchisement, as the communities will continue to lack proper protection. The Mill Creek Alliance and other groups and organizations will push for equitable development and restoration but might not be able to retain their powerful stakeholder status when working with the local municipalities in the future. Without the status they had given to them by the local government or significant grant and donation opportunities, the alliance could continue their advocacy but would have a challenging time trying to propose improvements.

At the Watershed scale, the Mill Creek travels through both Hamilton and Butler County, at this level, county governments must work together to achieve progress that spans the entire watershed. Looking to the future, the watershed will experience attempts to resolve crumbling infrastructure and pervasive flooding. The Mill Creek Alliance and other organizations will attempt to work with the counties to create equitable development and restoration. Though without strong community support, there will not be economic improvement.

The watershed communities will also experience the expansion of highways through the widening and addition of new lanes as the population in the area increases. The watershed will experience the redevelopment of vacant and brownfield parcels for the purpose of creating spaces for warehousing and new tech companies. As companies and populations migrate to the watershed, we will also see an increased desire and push for the expansion of multimodal transportation.

Though multimodal transportation and hybrid buses will be inefficient development solutions in relation to population growth and the needs of the communities it is meant to serve.

At the OKI regional level, (affecting Boone, Butler, Campbell, Clermont, Dearborn, Hamilton, Kenton, and Warren County) we expect to see large scale changes that would improve and worsen conditions in the region. Policy will be enacted to combat climate change and encourage renewable energy, but without incentives from power companies and subsidies provided by county, state, or federal governments, it is likely that it would be unattainable for most of the OKI population. Climate change and other problems will continue to disparage communities over time; things such as expansion and population growth will positively impact the economy but continue to be inequitable for the majority. Within the OKI region there will be an increase in highway expansion as areas become more populated and the number of job centers and CBDs

increase. There will also be a decrease in funding for public transportation, and as it deteriorates private transportation will take over instead.

Future Scenario Name This future scenario will be called “SMART Region” which stands for Sustainable, Mobile, Accessible, Recreational, and Technological. A smart city can promote growth economically while also creating equity for citizens by using data and technological analysis. There is a current need for cities to become “smarter” to be able to “provide for improved delivery and quality of services through continuous monitoring of residents and infrastructure, and instantaneous communication of suboptimal performance.” The Cincinnati region will use technology to create innovative and more self-sufficient communities that positively impact economic growth across the region. By creating new ways to perform basic city operations that are quicker, more sustainable, reduce pollution, use renewable energy, and provide more efficient resources to residents (utilities/food access/etc.). Residents use advanced forms of transportation in both public (bus rapid transit, etc.) and private transit (autonomous vehicles). Business incubators inspire an increase in economic growth and creativity across the city, increasing the workforce/job availability as successful businesses begin to form.

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