February 1-7, 2025
HOT TOPICS:
Trump'sTariffs aresuspended for30days
US MASS DEPORTATIONS
Since Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, over a thousand Mexicans from Michoacán, Oaxaca, and Veracruz have been deported. The National Migration Institute (INM) reported more than 8,000 repatriations in total While deportations are not yet massive, local governments are preparing aid programs. Many deportees remain at the border seeking jobs, while others return home Officials warn of economic consequences, especially in towns reliant on remittances Mexico continues coordinating with the U S to ensure deportees’ rights and reintegration
Source: MILENIO
US SUPREME COURT TO REVISE ARMS TRAFFICKING
Mexico is preparing for the March 4 hearing at the U S Supreme Court as part of its lawsuit against illicit arms trafficking The SRE’s legal consultant, Pablo Arrocha, met in Washington, D C , with lawyers and experts to strengthen the legal strategy. The Court will assess whether the defendant companies have immunity despite facilitating arms trafficking Since 2021, Mexico has filed lawsuits in Massachusetts and Arizona, denouncing negligent business practices that contribute to the illegal flow of weapons into the country
Source: EL ECONOMISTA
On February 1st, President Trump announced tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, citing border security and drug control Mexico faced a 25% tariff, while most Canadian imports saw the same rate, except for energy products, taxed at 10% starting February 4th. The announcement caused the MXN/USD exchange rate to rise to 21.22. Mexico vowed to implement "Plan B," while Canada called for a U S goods boycott Hours before enforcement, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum negotiated a 30-day tariff suspension with Trump, agreeing to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to the northern border. The U S pledged to curb arms trafficking into Mexico
Trade associations, including AmCham and CCE, condemned the tariffs, warning of job losses, inflation, and supply chain disruptions. They disapproved the U.S. for violating USMCA and WTO commitments Industry groups urged diplomatic solutions over unilateral trade barriers Mexico and the U S will create a joint plan to address trade deficits, involving top officials like U S Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. However, Trump may use security and migration issues to leverage the 2026 USMCA review The lack of formal success metrics leaves uncertainty Investor confidence has weakened, and security, migration, and trade will remain key issues over the next four years.
Source: EL ECONOMISTA
ROGELIO RAMÍREZ DE LA O SENDS MESSAGE TO INVESTORS
Mexican Finance Minister Rogelio Ramírez de la O reassured investors about the temporary suspension of U S tariffs on Mexican products He emphasized Mexico’s strong economic fundamentals and commitment to reducing the fiscal deficit from 5.7% to 3.9% of GDP. He ruled out a recession, highlighting key sectors like automotive and electronics for economic growth. He also stressed Mexico’s financial stability, citing strong investor confidence and record demand for Mexican bonds Additionally, he confirmed collaboration with regulators to mitigate external shocks and ongoing efforts to address concerns over cartel-related financial regulations.
Source: MVS NOTICIAS
HOT TOPICS:
TheJudicial Electionmovesforward
Mexico is set to finalize the list of candidates for its first-ever judicial elections, scheduled for June 1 This unprecedented reform, driven by the ruling Morena party, will allow voters to elect nearly 900 judicial officials, including Supreme Court justices, appellate judges, and magistrates. The selection process, involving all three branches of government, has been contentious, marked by conflicts between the judiciary and Morena Recently, the Electoral Tribunal transferred candidate selection authority from the judiciary to the Senate, which is dominated by Morena. The Senate then selected judicial candidates through a lottery-style process, sparking further tensions Senate leader Gerardo Fernández Noroña accused the judiciary of manipulating candidate lists, while President Claudia Sheinbaum labeled the process as irregular
Candidates include Paula García Villegas Sánchez Cordero, daughter of former Supreme Court Justice Olga Sánchez Cordero, and former Attorney General Marisela Morales Morena has also backed Estela Ríos, a former presidential legal advisor, and Bernardo Bátiz, a longtime ally of López Obrador. Campaign regulations are strict: candidates cannot receive public or private funding, advertise in media, or use public spaces for promotion However, some judges have begun early campaigning, raising concerns about fairness. Additionally, many candidates face security risks in regions controlled by organized crime. Despite logistical and political challenges, the election will test Mexico’s democratic resilience The National Electoral Institute (INE) is working under limited resources, highlighting concerns about transparency and security in this historic judicial reform.
Source: EL PAÍS
THE SEMICONDUCTORS PROGRAM
Sheinbaum introduced the "Kutsari" program to strengthen Mexico's semiconductor industry Led by the Secretariat of Science, the plan includes the creation of the National Semiconductor Design Center, with future expansion into chip manufacturing for key sectors Raquel Buenrostro highlighted the strategic opportunity amid industrial relocation, while Santiago Nieto emphasized the need to strengthen patents in the sector This initiative aligns with the 2024-2030 Master Plan, aiming to double exports and employment while attracting over $10 billion in investments.
Source: EL ECONOMISTA
ELECTRICITY PROJECTS FOR THE NATIONAL ELECTRIC SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AND EXPANSION PLAN
President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo introduced Mexico’s National Electric System Strengthening and Expansion Plan (2025-2030), consisting of 51 projects with an estimated investment of $22 37 billion The plan aims to generate 22,674 megawatts, with private investments contributing 6,400 MW Key projects include renewable energy initiatives and improved transmission systems. The plan seeks to provide electricity to over 500,000 households, achieving 99% coverage by 2029
Source: GOBIERNO DE MÉXICO
BANXICO LOWERS INTEREST RATES
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 9.50%, the largest reduction in four years. The decision, made by a majority, marks the sixth cut since March 2024, totaling a 175-basis-point decrease from its 11 25% peak in December 2023 Banxico officials indicated possible further adjustments depending on inflation trends The decision reflects confidence in inflation control, with forecasts remaining stable and a target of 3% inflation by 2026
Source: EL ECONOMISTA
HOT TOPICS: Legislative and Regulatory Issues:
LABOR
Bill to amend Article 123 of the Constitution
Presented by: Parliamentary Group of the Green Party (PVEM)
Objective: Establishes that for every five days of work, workers will be entitled to at least two days of rest Transitional provisions state that the decree will take effect 365 calendar days after its publication in the Official Gazette The Congress of the Union and state legislatures must align relevant legislation within six months of the decree’s entry into force
Status: Presented to the plenary of the Chamber of Deputies
Bill to amend Article 123 of the Constitution
Presented by: Ricardo Anaya Cortés (PAN)
Objective: Mandates that the setting or revision of general and professional minimum wages must always exceed the combined cost of the basic food and non-food baskets, as determined by the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy, adjusted for the average household size
Status: Presented to the plenary of the Senate
FINANCIAL
Article 11 Of The Law To Regulate Financial Technology Institutions
Presented by: Sen María Del Rocío Corona Nakamura (Jal - PVEM)
Objective: Ensures that only entities authorized by the National Banking and Securities Commission can operate or promote themselves as Financial Technology Institutions. Mandates periodic publication of authorized ITFs, requires clear service contracts, and prohibits unfair practices.
Status: Published in the Parliamentary Gazette
Bill To Amend Various Provisions Of The Value Added Tax Law
Presented by: Sen. Manuel Añorve Baños (Gro - PRI)
Objective: Proposes reducing the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate from 16% to 10% to alleviate the tax burden on consumers and stimulate economic activity
Status: Published in the Parliamentary Gazette
INFRASTRUCTURE
National Quality Infrastructure Program 2025
Presented by: Ministry of Economy
Purpose: Instrument that allows planning, conducting, coordinating and informing the members of the National Quality Infrastructure System and the general public about normalization, standardization and metrology activities at the national level.
Status: AIR Exemption
ENERGY
Bill To Enact New Energy Sector Laws And Reform Various Federal Statutes
Presented by: President Claudia Sheinbaum
Objective: Establishes new legal frameworks for state-owned energy enterprises, Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) and Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), defining them as public entities under a special regime Eliminates subsidiaries, strengthens oversight of affiliates, and ensures strategic public service provision
Status: Published in the Parliamentary Gazette
CYBERSECURITY
Bill To Amend And Add Various Provisions To The Political Constitution
Presented by: Sen Agustín Dorantes Lambarri (LNal - PAN)
Objective: Prohibits discrimination arising from the use of artificial intelligence, cybertechnology, or neurotechnology Mandates the State to promote cybersecurity and ensure AI-related technologies are safe, ethical, and human rights-compliant. Establishes a National Agency for AI and Cybersecurity and protects neurorights, particularly brain activity and related data Grants Congress authority to legislate on cybersecurity, AI, telecommunications, and federal water use
Status: Published in the Parliamentary Gazette
