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MODERATOR
Paul Read Publisher, JournalofBusiness
ECONOMIST
Steve Scranton, CFA ChiefEconomist WashingtonTrustBank
Economic Update
Steve Scranton, CFA Chief Economist Washington Trust Bank
Take Aways
Economy
• Economic growth is bifurcated between upper and lower income earners.
• Fiscal stimulus, corporate spending and tax refunds will support economic growth.
Interest Rates
• Short-term interest rates will follow the Federal Reserve’s actions.
• Long-term interest rates will follow inflation and the economy.
Current State of the US Economy
Year-Over-Year Jobs Growth
Jobs Growth is Clearly Slowing
Income vs Spending
2.3% vs Spending: 2.7%
Personal Income vs Personal Spending Year-Over-Year Growth
Year-Over-Year Economic Growth-Slowing
• Short-term rates
• Expect the Federal Reserve to lower its overnight borrowing rate by another 0.25% by year-end.
• If the economy or labor market deteriorates more than expected, then additional rate cuts are possible.
• Long-term rates
• Expect 10-year Treasury to be volatile between 3.50% to 5.00%
• Dependent on three factors
• Progress on inflation
• Economic growth
• Buyers of long-term debt
• Expect 30-year mortgage rate to be between 6%-7.5%
Risks to Monitor
Tariffs
Tariffs are a tax paid by businesses or consumers
US Imports = $3.3 Trillion
18.7% Tariff = $617 billion 12-month revenue to the US, tax to businesses and consumers
Burden on small businesses-reporting and compliance
Consumer Inflation Does Not Match Official Inflation
20 out of 27 are above 2%, 11 out of 27 are above 4%
Core Expenses Consumers Most Likely Care About
Hourly Workers Are Suffering Shadow Pay Cuts
Threats and Opportunities
Threats
Deportation
• Any reduction in working undocumented immigrants will impact the labor pool.
• Agriculture, Construction, Healthcare, Leisure & Hospitality, and Manufacturing at risk.
Legislative Policy
• Tax policy risks out-migration.
“Boycott USA”
• Leisure & Hospitality and Agriculture at risk.
Opportunities
Aerospace and Deep Space
• Private enterprise driven-new businesses
• Small modular nuclear Energy
• Physical AI Technology
Closing Thoughts
Focus on your business and ignore the noise of the media and politics. Focus
Reassure
Be the voice of reason for your employees, families, friends and customers.
Have active conversations with your business partners to develop contingency plans. Communicate
Prepare for the threats; look for the opportunities. Plan
ECONOMIST
Dr. Vange Ocasio Hochheimer ProfessorofEconomics&Finance
WhitworthUniversity
Note:
Vange Hochheimer, Ph.D. Professor of Economics and Finance CEO & Chief Economist, Grand Fir Analytics
vocasio@whitworth.edu
Takeaways
• Washington faces significant fiscal headwinds from federal spending cuts.
• Vulnerable populations, especially children, seniors, and lowincome workers, are most affected.
• Trade shocks and tariffs dampen growth in key industries like aerospace and agriculture.
• Yet positives include Washington’s diverse economy, clean energy leadership, and innovation ecosystem.
• Public-private collaboration and strong local governance remain key to resilience.
One Big Beautiful Bill Act
Key Federal Cuts and Washington State Impacts
Medicaid – Spending in Washington
Source: kff.org
Medicaid – Who is Covered
Medicaid - Demographics
Source: kff.org
U3 – Official Unemployment Rate, WA, U.S. U6 – Broader Measure of Labor Underutilization, WA, U.S.
Source: Adapted from Employment Security Department/Labor Market Information and Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
SNAP – U.S. Spending, 2024
Snap Recipients in Washington State (2024)
Snap Recipients in Washington State (2024)
SNAP - Demographics
Supplemental Poverty Measure
Trade & Tariffs - Washington
Expected Impact of Tariffs on Washington’s Prices of Goods and Services (May 2025 vs November 2024 S&P Forecast):
Source: Washington State Office of Financial Management
Expected Impact of Tariffs on Washington’s GDP
(May 2025 vs November 2024 S&P Forecast):
Source: Washington State Office of Financial Management
Washington vs U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (2019–2025)
Source: The Conference Board, ERFC
Conclusions
• Risks from federal policy and global trade shifts are real but manageable.
• Strategic investment in workforce, innovation, and infrastructure will sustain growth.
• Washington is resilient, with strengths in energy, ports, and research institutions.
• The outlook is cautiously optimistic — challenges ahead, but clear opportunities to adapt and lead.
ECONOMIST
Dr. Grant Forsyth ChiefEconomist AvistaCorp.
Takeaways
• Metro area employment growth slowed significantly this year—with the WA side showing the most weakness.
• With the slowdown in employment growth, regional population growth has also slowed.
• Home price and rent growth remains low, but the price level remains high and affordability remains elusive.
• Residential units permitted are in-line with 2024, but with a shift towards singlefamily units.
Spokane Metro and Healthcare, January 2022 - August 2025
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