American Demographics September / October Issue

S E P T E M B E R /O C T O B E R 2 0 2 0

FINDING THE PULSE OF THE PANDEMIC The Census Bureau responds by tracking the vitals Sizing the Population Up (and Down) Who’s growing, who’s slowing The Marriage Market What does it take to make the grade?

Housing Our Elders How many homes are age ready Small Businesses Are in Trouble Resiliency may be pushing its limits Statistical Snapshots

Does love conquer all?

On The Bookshelf New books and films are putting population trends into focus

DATE NIGHTS ARE BETTER SINCE WE AGREED TOPICS TO AVOID. ASK ME ANYTHING YOU WANT ABOUT THE ’95 MARINERS.

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

IN THIS ISSUE OF PUBLISHER Phillip Russo

EDITORIAL STAFF Brad Edmondson Tim Simmons

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American Demographics is Back

Cheryl Russell Sara Williamson

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Sizing the Population Up (and Down)

George Puro Joe Azzinaro

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The Marriage Market

7

Housing Our Elders

8

Finding the Pulse of the Pandemic

Dane Twining Sylvia Stein Tom Prendergast

CREATIVE DIRECTOR Melissa Subatch

13 Small Businesses Are in Trouble American Demographics and americandemographics.com

14 Statistical Snapshots

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15 This Month’s Bookshelf

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S E P T E M B E R /O C T O B E R 2 0 2 0

FINDING THE PULSE OF THE PANDEMIC The Census Bureau responds by tracking the vitals

Sizing the Population Up (and Down) Who’s growing, who’s slowing The Marriage Market What does it take to make the grade?

Housing Our Elders How many homes are age ready Small Businesses Are in Trouble Resiliency may be pushing its limits Statistical Snapshots

Does love conquer all?

On The Bookshelf New books and films are putting population trends into focus

American Demographics is Back!

elcome to our September/October 2020 issue of American Demographics.

For the past several months, the rhythms of life around the world have been disrupted by the novel coronavirus pandemic of 2020. Day-to-day while the uncertainties continue, few if any of 330 million Americans have been spared its impact across every facet of existence: family life, healthcare, politics and social engagements, schooling, employment and the workplace, finances, shopping, recreation, entertainment, and more.

American society is required to adapt, and thus there is an urgency for information that is not only accurate but available in a timely fashion.

Social scientists and researchers may be accustomed to studying trends over the long term. But our cover story looks at a pair of initiatives by the US Census Bureau that could succeed in providing today’s policy-makers, strategic planners, investors and others with more immediately actionable insights. We also get a few glimpses at what the data is telling us so far. And we have eyes as well on other demographic changes that transcend the current environment.

American Demographics has been the place to go for information about the trends influencing our lives for more than 25 years. As always, the staff of editors, reporters and experts, whether working from home or office, pore through the dense governmental and academic publications in demographics, geology, gerontology, sociology and other fields to bring you insight into the diverse world around us.

to subscribe, visit: www.americandemographics.com

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AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

By Cheryl Russell

Sizing the Population Up (and Down) Who’s growing and who’s slowing?

Slowing: Immigration US population growth is slowing to a crawl, with the 2010s likely to be the decade with the slowest population growth in US history. One reason for the slow growth is a precipitous decline in international immigration. A net of only 595,000 immigrants were added to the US population in 2019, the lowest level of the decade and well below the more than 1 million immigrants added to the population in 2015 and 2016.

As Americans, we tend to embrace growth as a sign of health, even when it’s not. Think suburban sprawl and McMansions; all-you-can-eat and “supersize me.” A belief in “bigger is better” makes it hard to adjust when growth slows or even stops.

Slowing growth requires businesses to pay more attention to the demographics. No longer able to ride the coattails of universally expanding markets, businesses must become more strategic at targeting pockets of growth. Here is a check-up on demographic growth and decline based on the Census Bureau’s 2019 population estimates.

Net international migration, 2015 to 2019 2015 1,042,000 2018 702,000 2016 1,047,000 2017 930,000

Growing: 65-plus If you’re looking for growth, this is where to find it. No segment of the population is growing faster than 65-plus. The number of people aged 65 or older expanded by 34 percent between 2010 and 2019 as baby-boomers filled the age group. The 65-plus population is growing like gangbusters even among non-Hispanic whites.

Percent change in population aged 65-plus by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-19 Asian 77% TOTAL Black 48% 34% Hispanic 65% Non-Hispanic white 27%

Screeching Halt: Children One million fewer children: This may be the most dramatic headline of the Census Bureau’s 2019 population estimates.

Because of the baby bust, the number of children in the United States fell by 1 million between 2010 and 2019. The decline occurred only among non-Hispanic whites, however.

Percent change in population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010–19 TOTAL

6%

Growing: Diversity The minority share of the American population climbed to 40 percent in 2019. It is projected to top 50 percent in 2045.

Minorities are a growing share of the population in all 50 states (but not in the District of Columbia), in 358 of 364 metropolitan areas, and in 3,012 of the nation’s 3,141 counties, according to Brookings demographer William H. Frey.

Minority share of the US population, 2010, 2019 and 2045 projection 2010 36% 2019 40% 2045 50%

Slowing: Natural increase Another reason for the nation’s slowing growth is the ongoing baby bust. With fewer babies being born, deaths outnumbered births last year in 1,430 counties (46 percent of the total), according to demographer Kenneth Johnson of the University of New Hampshire. Nationally, natural increase (births minus deaths) added only 957,000 people to the U.S. population in 2019, the smallest number in more than 50 years and 38 percent less than in 2010.

Natural increase in 2010 and 2019 2019 957,000 2010 1,531,000

Growing: Asians, Blacks and Hispanics The Asian, Black, and Hispanic populations all grew by double-digits between 2010 and 2019. There was zero growth in the number of non-Hispanic whites.

Asian 28% Black 11% Hispanic 19% Non-Hispanic white 0%

2019 595,000

Percent change in population under age 18 by race and Hispanic origin, 2010–19 Asian 16% Black 1% TOTAL Hispanic 9% -1% Non-Hispanic white -8%

Screeching Halt: Non-Hispanic whites There were 536,000 fewer non-Hispanic whites in the US in 2019 than in 2016. The population is shrinking because deaths now outnumber births among non-Hispanic whites.

Percent change in non-Hispanic white population by age, 2010–19 Under age 18 8% TOTAL Aged 18 to 64 5% 0% Aged 65-plus ``` 27%

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

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What Does It Take to Make the Grade in the Marriage Market? nly 48 percent of American households are headed by married couples. This is a shockingly low figure. For marketers of all kind of goods and services it is a wake-up call. But for those who hope their standing in life may benefit by taking a spouse, there is cause for much greater concern.

For more than a century, married couples were the only game in town. Businesses prospered by catering to couples, with little need to serve anyone else. During the first half of the 20th century, more than three-quarters of the nation’s households were headed by married couples. Then something happened.

The married couple share of households began to shrink in the 1960s. The share fell below 70 percent in 1971, below 60 percent in 1981, and below 50 percent in 2010.

What caused this dramatic decline? Economic polarization.

Beginning in the 1960s, the great American middle class began to split apart, separating into Haves and Have Nots. The Haves are the ones most likely to marry. The Have Nots struggle to find a partner and are most likely to divorce.

Here’s what happened. As the Vietnam War expanded in the 1960s, going to college became de rigueur—first for men to avoid the draft, then for women. Only 8 percent of Americans aged 25 or older could boast of a college degree in 1960. But with each passing decade, the ranks of graduates grew. Today, 35 percent of people aged 25 or older have a bachelor’s degree. Over the years, college graduates have seen their earnings soar, making them attractive marriage partners. The earnings of those with less education have stagnated or even declined, reducing their value in the Marriage Market.

Make no mistake about it, there is a Marriage Market. The higher the educational attainment, the higher the marriage rate.

Everyone loves a winner.

Marriage is more closely linked to socioeconomic status today than ever before, reports Pew Research Center, which has been tracking this trend for years. In 1960, before the middle class split apart, adults with no more than a high school diploma were almost as likely to be married (72 percent) as those with a bachelor’s degree (76 percent)—a difference of only 4 percentage points, says Pew. Among Americans aged 25 or older today, 65 percent of those with a bachelor’s degree are married versus only 50 percent of those with no more than a high school diploma—a 15 percentage point difference. Not only are the less educated less likely to marry, they are also more likely to divorce. Among women with a bachelor’s degree, 78 percent can expect to enjoy at least 20 years of marital bliss. Among women with some college, only 49 percent can expect such a long-lasting marriage. Among women with no more than a high school diploma, the figure is just 40 percent.

Money apparently does buy happiness, and college grads are the ones with the money.

The Census Bureau’s 2019 Current Population Survey documents stark differences in marital status by personal earnings.

For both men and women, the higher the earnings the more likely they are to be married. Among men who earn less than $25,000 a year, only 33 percent are currently married. Among men who earn $100,000 or more, 78 percent are married. Economic polarization, driven by higher education, explains why married couples head a shrinking share of households.

Percent of Americans who are currently married by personal earnings, 2018 MEN WOMEN Under $25,000

33%

41%

$25,000 to $39,999

45%

48%

$40,000 to $74,999

60%

57%

$75,000 to $99,999

70%

61%

$100,000 or more

78%

67%

Note: Base is all men and women aged 18 or older with personal earnings.

Source: Census Bureau, 2019 Current Population Survey

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AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

Housing Our Elders

How Many Homes Are Age Ready? nly ten percent of the nation’s housing units are ready for the challenge of sheltering the coming tsunami of aging baby-boomers, according to the Census Bureau (Old Housing, New Needs: Are U.S. Homes Ready for an Aging Population?) What does “ready” mean? There’s a test for that. Three features are required before a housing unit is “age ready,” as the Census Bureau calls it: a step-free entry, a bedroom and full bathroom at entry level, and at least one accessibility feature in the bathroom—such as an elevated toilet, built-in shower seat, or grab bars. Nine out of 10 houses do not pass the test.

There’s another reason falling down is a matter of great concern: The death rate is rising. Over the past decade, the death rate from falls has grown 3 percent per year among people aged 65 or older. The experts don’t know why the rate is rising so rapidly, but one theory is that older people are living longer with chronic conditions, which make them more vulnerable to falling down and more likely to die if they do. To stem the rise, the CDC is urging greater efforts at fall prevention, which is why older Americans are now asked about falls during their annual wellness visits. This is also why the government is examining the health and safety characteristics of people’s homes.

Why is the lack of age ready housing a concern? Let’s count the ways: 1) Millions of boomers are inflating the ranks of the old; 2) Most will want to remain in their homes for as long as possible; and 3) Because 90 percent of homes are not age ready, they pose a threat to boomers—the threat of falling down.

The Census Bureau discovered a plethora of problems when it asked the public about the features of their home that could increase the risk of falling down.

Only 42 percent of homes in the United States have a step-free entry. Most homes are multi-story, and just 57 percent of multi-story homes have a bedroom and full bathroom at entry level. Only 25 percent of housing units include at least one accessibility feature in the bathroom.

Falling down is a big deal for older people. Falls are the leading cause of injury for people aged 65 or older, with more than one in four falling down at least once over the course of a year, according to the CDC. Ten percent experience a fall-related injury. The annual medical cost for treating these falls is more than $50 billion. Falling down also can be fatal. Falls are a major cause of death among older Americans, with 32,000 people aged 65 or older dying from a fall in 2018. The 65-plus age group accounts for nearly 9 out of 10 deaths from falls in the United States.

Because so few housing units are age ready, a large share of older Americans report difficulties functioning safely at home. Ten percent of households with adults aged 65 or older report difficulty getting into or out of the bathtub or shower, as do 23 percent of households with adults aged 85 or older. An even larger 24 percent of households with adults aged 65 or older report difficulty walking or climbing stairs in their home, as do 42 percent of households with adults aged 85 or older.

The number of people aged 65 or older who die from falls could climb as high as 59,000 annually by 2030, according to CDC projections. To halt the rise will require a concerted effort to make more homes age ready.

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

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BY: BRAD ED M ON SON

FINDING THE PULSE OF THE PANDEMIC COVID-19 is forcing everyone to come up with new ways to operate, and that includes the Census Bureau.

The Census Bureau has created a program that could be a real game-changer for business users and others who need data that is reliable, timely, and free. The agency has collaborated with five federal agencies to produce data on the social and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. It’s called the Household Pulse Survey and its results are released one week after each wave of the survey is collected. It’s an experiment, but so far it seems to be working very well indeed.

Disaster relief is far more effective when it is informed by data that is from trustworthy sources available on a basis that’s as contemporaneous as possible. The US government has a stellar record of producing reliable data. But until now, it has taken a long time to release those numbers. For example, the Current Population Survey’s annual estimates of household income are the gold standard for understanding household economics—but they are collected in March and released in September, and they measure conditions for the previous calendar year.

“We did the Pulse survey to provide needed data, but also as a proof of concept,” says Victoria Velkoff, the Bureau’s associate director for demographic programs.

“We wanted to show that the federal statistical system could react quickly.” The federal statistical system is spread across 125 different agencies and employs tens of thousands of people. The Pulse surveys are teaching this elephant how to dance.

The Pulse survey gets results online from about 100,000 users each week. Its 30 questions describe Americans’ experiences with income and employment, emergency federal assistance, food security, mental and physical health, access to health care and insurance, ability to meet rent and mortgage payments, schooling, and access to online services, as well as household demographics. Results are reported for the nation, the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and the 15 largest metropolitan areas. A separate effort, the Small Business Pulse Survey, measures the experiences of small business owners. (see related story in this issue page 13).

The Household survey was originally funded only through the end of July, and the Small Business survey through the end of June. But on July 31, the Office of Management and Budget authorized a second wave of both surveys. The small business survey resumes in mid-August and will run through mid-October. The household survey will resume in mid-August, and an end date was not announced. Both surveys will adjust their questions so that key data will be comparable to the first wave, with new questions to reflect changing conditions. The second wave had a lot of support, because both surveys are extensively used by state and local officials and executives in many industries, from health care to hospitality, transportation, and food.

A “pulse survey” is a recurring set of questions, usually taken online, that helps leaders understand how their communities are doing. Marketers and human resources executives use these kinds of surveys to keep tabs on the satisfaction, productivity, and attitudes of customers and employees. Privately produced pulse surveys work well when the group being measured is small and doesn’t change quickly. They become junk when anyone can respond. The reason is a core principle of survey research called the “sampling frame.”

TARGET POPULATION SAMPLE

A sampling frame is a list of people who form the population from which a sample is taken. A survey can’t reflect the characteristics of an overall population unless its sample is representative. In other words, if 21 percent of the overall population is aged 18 to 24, a survey’s results will only approach reliability for that group if 21 out of 100 survey respondents are aged 18 to 24. If that hypothetical survey gets only 15 young adults to respond, their answers can be “weighted” so that 21 percent of the published results are made from their responses. But weighting also adds “sampling error” to the survey, making the results less reliable.

Internet surveys that do not ask for a respondent’s demographic characteristics are are of no value at all to researchers and data scientists because they can’t be made representative. In fact, it’s easy to create a “bot”—a simple set of computer commands—that will automatically answer an internet survey hundreds of times. Internet surveys that collect demographics and weight their results are far better, but they have another weak point. In order to remain representative for subgroups, the number of respondents must increase dramatically. So if you’re seeking reliable numbers that describe food insecurity among adults aged 55 to 64, or the prevalence of anxiety and depression in Alabama, and you need to ask different people those questions every week, you need to get a lot of people to respond.

The US government can field a reliable weekly pulse survey and report the results for all 50 states and 15 metro areas because it owns the ultimate sampling frame. The Master Address File (MAF), jointly produced and maintained by the Census Bureau and the US Postal Service, comes very close to listing every address in the country. The MAF has been continually refined over the last 20 years, and the Census Bureau’s Velkoff estimates that it also captures about 80 percent of Americans’ e-mail addresses and phone numbers. About 90 percent of Americans use the internet at least occasionally, according to the Pew Research Center. Sending out mass e-mails costs next to nothing and processing the same set of questions once a week isn’t prohibitive.

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AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

Put it all together, and a reliable weekly survey that is available to anyone at no charge becomes a possibility—but only if you’re the US government, which is required by law to protect the confidentiality of data on individuals. The government’s reach, combined with the confidentiality law, make its sampling frame much better than the enormous lists curated by tech companies like Google and Facebook. Also, there’s no way a tech company is going to give away something that valuable for free.

The federal statistical system is spread across 125 different agencies and employs tens of thousands of people. The Pulse surveys are teaching this elephant how to dance.

The Census Bureau has learned a great deal since the Pulse Survey launched, according to Velkoff. She also helped develop the American Community Survey (ACS), which streamlined the decennial census and now produces reliable neighborhood-level demographic profiles that are refreshed once a year. The MAF is the sampling frame for the ACS, too.

As the Bureau’s liaison to international statistical agencies, Velkoff brings innovative ideas from other countries. Tinkering with Census Bureau products must be done carefully, she says, because the data are so valuable to so many people. But the gains are potentially even more valuable.

For example, the Bureau has begun sending text message reminders to respondents who ask for them, because people are far more likely to notice text messages than they are to check their e-mail. “We’re learning how to make our messages shorter,” Velkoff says.

WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING DURING THE PANDEMIC? The Household Pulse Survey turns the anecdotal evidence reported by health care workers and journalists into data that can be used to allocate resources.

It confirms that low-income working families are among those hit hardest by the virus. In mid-July, 60 percent of households at the bottom of the income scale ($25,000 or less) had lost income since mid-March, compared with just 32 percent of those at the top ($200,000 or more). Other demographics match the pattern. The youngest workers (aged 18-24) were significantly more likely than average to have lost income, along with Blacks, Hispanics, those who had not completed high school, and those who were divorced, separated, or never married. And 58 percent of households containing children said they had lost income in mid-July, compared with 45 percent of households with no children. School closings have had an enormous economic impact.

The survey also confirms a sudden, rapid increase in food insecurity. An average of 10 percent of all households in the Survey say they “sometimes or often” do not have enough to eat. While the Pulse Survey’s results are not strictly comparable to other surveys, several pre-pandemic measurements registered food insecurity at much lower levels. The survey conducted during the third week in June showed 13.9 million children living in a household which “sometimes or often” did not have enough to eat, according to Lauren Bauer of the Brookings Institution. Earlier surveys estimated that number at 2.5 million children in 2018, and 5.1 million at the peak of the Great Recession in 2008.

Americans need hard facts on what the pandemic is doing to their country. The Census Bureau’s innovative response foreshadows a permanent change in the way federal agencies collect data.

Food insecurity, then and now. Percentage of US adults who “sometimes: or “often” do not have enough food to eat, by household income, pre-COVID virus and July 14-21 $200,000+ Pre-Covid July 14-21

$150,000 -$199,999 $100,000 - $149,000 $75,000 - $99,999 $50,000 - $74,999 $35,000 - $49,999 $25,000 - $34,999 <$25,000 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Source: US Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey

Americans living in lower-income households remain most likely to “sometimes” or “often” lack enough food to eat, but food insecurity since the COVID virus has risen fastest among middle-income households.

continued on next page >

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

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Decline

PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE IN FOOD INSECURITY AMONG US ADULTS FROM BEFORE THE COVID VIRUS TO MID-JULY

Increase below the national average (<+2.3 percentage points) Increase of 2.5 to 5 percentage points Increase of 5.5 to 8 percentage points

WA MT

Before the COVID virus struck, the percentage of New York State

VT

MN

WA

WI

SD

residents who did not have enough

WY

food to eat for at least several days in the last week was lower than the

ME

ND

OR

MI PA

IA

NE

NV UT

CA

IL

WA

national average. By mid-July,

KS

were food insecure, the highest

OK

WA

declined in 13 states and the

AK

HI

A recent “meta-analysis” of several large studies estimates that that 20 to 25 percent of women will suffer from depression at some point during their lives, along with 7 to 12 percent of men.

In the mid-July Pulse survey, 55 percent of American women and 48 percent of men said they felt down, depressed, or hopeless for at least several of the last seven days.

It might not be surprising to learn that the pandemic has a lot of people feeling down. But the strength of the Pulse Survey is in the details. Experts at the Center for Disease Control who analyzed the survey found that overall, about 40 percent of Americans were showing symptoms of anxiety or depressive disorder in mid-July. The prevalence of those symptoms was highest in young adults, and it rose from 47 percent of those aged 18 to 29 in mid-April to 55 percent in mid-July.

Anxiety and depression were much lower in adults aged 70 to 79, and those levels did not rise over the four-month period. And they were lowest among the group at greatest risk of death. Among adults aged 80 and older, the share who were anxious and depressed actually declined, from 21 percent in mid-April to 19 percent in mid-July.

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SC

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

AL

GA

LA FL

District of Columbia.

< continued from previous page One of the most revealing sections of the survey was written in conjunction with mental health experts at the National Center for Health Statistics. Respondents were asked how often they were “feeling nervous, anxious, or on edge,” “having little pleasure or interest in doing things,” and “feeling down, depressed, or hopeless.” The questions were worded to match those used by doctors to screen patients for depressive or anxiety disorders.

VA NC

AR MS

TX

WV KY

NJ DE DC MD

OH

TN

rate in the United States. But at the same time, food insecurity

IN

MO

17.5 percent of New York adults AZ

NH MA CT RI

NY

Source: Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey, early April and Week 12 (mid-July), 2020

It makes sense when you think about it. Among Americans aged 65 and older, 84 percent collect Social Security benefits and 100 percent are covered by Medicare. But households headed by young adults have no guaranteed source of income, most of them have lost income, and 22 percent of Pulse survey respondents aged 18 to 24 also have no health insurance. Until they get sick, young people have more to worry about.

Half of American households have lost employment income since mid-March, according to a weekly survey taken in mid-July. The share of households losing income also increased four percentage points since the first week the survey was taken, at the end of April. But that was actually good news.

At the end of April, an additional 38 percent of householders said they expected to lose income in the next month. That catastrophe was averted by the federal Paycheck Protection Program, which reimbursed employers who did not lay off their workers during the emergency. Funds from the PPP arrived just as week 1 of the survey was being collected.

Americans need hard facts on what the pandemic is doing to their country. The Census Bureau’s innovative response foreshadows a permanent change in the way federal agencies collect data.

The Household Pulse Survey’s data tool (https://www.census. gov/householdpulsedata) is an easy way to browse this rich data source. It shows exactly how many Americans are struggling. It reveals who is most likely to need immediate help. And it may also show the way to a new era in federal data collection and distribution.

America’s Small Businesses Are in Trouble Resiliency May Be Pushing Its Limits hen the US Census Bureau masterminded, not one, but two new surveys to measure the historic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic—the Household Pulse Survey and Small Business Pulse Survey—it was commonly believed the pandemic would be a wrap by summer. The months of May and June would be sufficient to record the historic (and expectedly short-term) economic contraction caused by COVID-19.

The final week of data collection for the Small Business Pulse Survey was June 21-27, just as coronavirus cases again began to surge. Oops! Back to the drawing board. (The Census Bureau initiated a second phase in mid-August which will continue through October). As of the ninth and final week of that initial run, the nation’s businesses had appeared to show a level of resilience. They may have been knocked down, but they were not yet knocked out. Take a look …

Q: Overall, how has this business been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic?

In week 9 the survey, 38 percent of small businesses said the coronavirus pandemic had a large negative effect on their business. This was well below the 51 percent that reported a large negative effect in Week 1. Businesses were battered, but it seemed as though a growing share were taking the pandemic in stride.

Q: In the last week, did this business experience a change in operating revenues/sales/receipts, not including any financial assistance or loans?”

In week 9 of the survey, 43 percent of small businesses reported a revenue decline in the past seven days. While substantial, this figure was much lower than the 74 percent that reported a revenue decline in Week 1. Apparently, many small businesses had stopped the bleeding.

Or maybe not. The bureau notes on its Small Business Pulse site, “any published survey results were contingent on response.” Which businesses responded to the survey in the final weeks of data collection? Most likely the survivors, while the pandemic’s victims most likely went dark. Tens of thousands of businesses have, in fact, gone dark. Yelp, the online crowdsourced business directory, has been documenting the growing numbers of victims. Of the 132,500 business closures noted on Yelp since March 1, the majority (55 percent) had closed permanently as of mid-July.

The coronavirus pandemic “represents a shock to America’s small firms that has little parallel since the 1930s,” says a National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) study. In late March/early April, the NBER researchers surveyed small businesses about their operations and outlook. If the COVID-19 crisis lasts 6 months, they asked, is it likely your business will still be in operation by the end of 2020? Only 38 percent said yes.

Percent of small businesses likely to be in operation at the end of 2020 if the COVID-19 crisis lasts 6 months, by industry Banking/Finance 59% Real Estate

56%

Construction

45%

Total

38%

Arts/Entertainment

35%

Tourism/Lodging 27% Personal services 22% Restaurant/Bar

15%

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to Covid-19? Early Evidence from a Survey, Working Paper 26989

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

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STAT I ST I CA L S N A P S H OTS

B y S a r a W i l l i a m s o n , P h D.

Does Love Conquer All?

There’s good news from the domestic front. American couples are more than twice as likely to agree on the relatively important, deeply-rooted aspects of their shared life, such as future plans, religion and politics, as they are to agree on less important personal habits and activities, like shopping and what to watch on TV.

How like-minded are romantic partners?

21%

Spending

We asked 723 participants the extent to which they agree they and their partners think alike on a variety of life issues. Here’s what they told us.

22%

Choice of Entertainment

22%

Shopping

23%

Food Preferences

31%

Punctuality

28%

Choice of Leisure Activities

32%

33%

Savings

Professional Ambitions

33%

Responsibilities at home

34% Child Rearing

35%

40%

Work/Home Balance

Religious Ideology

45%

Political Ideology

42%

Plans for the future

14

47%

Political Engagement

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

The bad news is that “spending” is clearly an outlier when it comes to agreement, with only one in five partners saying they are in accord. Perhaps that’s why it’s considered the leading cause of divorce. Statistics have long supported that couples blame finances and spending on relationship turmoil and divorce.

Exacerbating the challenge of finding a long-term companion in today’s society, first impressions often anchor on a person’s profession and finances. It feels intuitive to say a successful romance would require two people to agree on material things. But it would appear that’s not really how couples align.

The results also suggest couples benefit more from strong ideological similarities with their companion than from shared material behaviors or social groups. As younger generations feel pressures to accumulate material gains, they may have stalled their romantic lives to focus on financial and professional success. Perhaps there’s an opportunity for the single population to re-frame what matters and seek connections on a deeper level.

Who was in our sample?

Among 723 Americans surveyed via the Prolific online recruitment platform, 56% were married while 41% were in a committed relationship. The average age was 39, 51% were female, and 46% were parents.

Through the cultural record, demographic changes are chronicled in many forms: in articles and books, documentaries and movies, podcasts, plays, music and more. For This Month’s Bookshelf, George Puro looks at one of many demographic shifts taking place as a result of globalization.

Americans who begin spelling and then competing at very early ages. There’s Akash, age seven, who has been spelling since age two; fourteen-year-old Shourav, who has been spelling since age seven; Ashrita, 10, who has been spelling since she was five; and Tejas, 14, who’s been spelling since he was seven.

Spelling the Dream

But why do Indian Americans’ dominate spelling? Through interviews with prominent Indian Americans, parents and the children themselves, the movie offers some clues.

In some cases, it is among America’s smallest demographic that significant contributions to American society are made. For one such group, that impact is found when they are also really small in years.

Indian Americans (called Asian Indians by the Census) are the subject of the new documentary Spelling the Dream, directed by Sam Rega. The film is about the outsized impact Indian Americans have had on the Scripps National Spelling Bee, the annual spelling contest held since 1925 (though it was canceled this year).

Indian Americans have won or co-won the last 12 national contests.

In 2018, there were 4.5 million Asian Indians in the US. They comprise the second largest Asian group, trailing only those of Chinese descent, and just ahead of Filipinos. About one in five Asian Americans is of Indian descent. Yet Indian Americans make up just over one percent of the total US population—though they have been among the fastest growing segments over the last 20 years.

When it comes to participating in American society and culture, however, many Asian Indians are encouraged to start young. The film chronicles four Indian

For one reason, many Indian American contestants have highly-educated and motivated parents who came to this country to pursue professional jobs such as computer engineers or physicians.

“Indians who do well in spelling bees in America are drawn from Indians who were very adventurous, who decided to take advantage of the relaxation of American immigration rules in 1965,” says journalist Fareed Zakaria. According to The Pew Research Center, 87.2% of Indian American adults were foreign born and 70% of those 25 or older had a college degree in 2010, far more than any other Asian group.

Another reason, according to Pawan Dhingra, a professor of sociology and American studies at Amherst College who is quoted throughout the movie, is that Indian American parents are driven to provide extracurricular activities for their children not just in sports, like most American children, but also in academic extracurricular activities, especially competitive ones. Indian American parents believe, according to Professor Dhingra,

that they need extracurricular activities like spelling bees to get into universities to compensate for fewer connections and a lack of a college legacy status.

India’s past as a British colony with a diverse number of ethnic backgrounds also plays to Indian Americans’ competitive advantage. Professor Dhingra says another key reason for Indian Americans’ spelling bee success is their knowledge of multiple languages: “Being multilingual is commonplace. And the familiarity of language, the ability to communicate so fluently across multiple languages, helps the kids in their minds to grasp words, grasp spelling, grasp languages, nuances, etymologies and that helps them achieve at the Bee“ Indeed, seven-year-old Akash can read and write in three languages already and wants to learn more.

Family plays an important role in Indian Americans’ spelling dominance as well.

“When you watch the Bee,” says Kevin Negandhi, an anchor on ESPN, which has broadcast the competition since 1994.

“The first thing you think of is that it is a family affair throughout the whole process.” Parents spend time studying and practicing with their children, and younger children follow in the footsteps of and compete with older siblings.

Perhaps the main reason why Indian American children are winning all of the spelling bees is their intense dedication and willingness to study. As, Akash tells the cameras: “How do I win the Scripps National Spelling Bee. The way to win the Bee is simply 90 percent hard work, ten percent other.”

AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

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