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Africa Economic Forum
6th March 2013
Sandton Convention Centre, Johannesburg, South Africa
Shaping Africa’s Future
Separa
Speakers Professor Tony Hawkins
Dr Rob H Davies
Graduate School of Business, Zimbabwe: Correspondent Financial Times (London)
Minister of Trade & Industry Ministry of Trade & Industry, Pretoria, South Africa
Mary Kimotho M’Mukindia* Division of Technology, Industry & Economics United Nations, Nairobi
Director, Africa@Work, Hon. CEO South Africa-Nigeria Chamber of Commerce
14th Strategy Briefing Upstream * Midstream * downstream Oil/Gas-Power-Energy-Future Fuels 5th March 2013, Sandton Convention Centre, Johannesburg, South Africa
Director, Oil & Gas Southern Africa Standard Bank, Johannesburg
Our 14th Southern Africa Oil-Gas & Energy: Strategy Briefing taking place on 5th March 2013, provides key insights on the oil, gas and energy game, built on over 30 years of oil and gas research. It tracks shifting energy maps in Africa South of the Equator, providing seasoned insights.
Duncan Clarke
Grant Hatch
Chairman & CEO Global Pacific & Partners
Head of Africa Strategy Accenture, South Africa
Presentations are by Dr Duncan Clarke (Chairman & CEO, Global Pacific & Partners), a leading advisor, thinker, writer and strategist on Africa
Ram Mahidhara Portfolio Manager, Infrastructure, ICT & Natural Resources, Sub-Saharan Africa International Finance Corporation, Johannesburg
Dr Terence McNamee Deputy Director The Brenthurst Foundation, Johannesburg Dr John Purchase Chief Executive Officer Agricultural Business Chamber, South Africa Albert Essien Deputy Group Chief Executive Officer Ecobank, South Africa
Paul Eardley-Taylor
Dr Lawrence McCrystal Director Afrifica, South Africa Louis Deppe
Group Economist Investec Ltd, Johannesburg
Celeste Fauconnier
Dougie Truter
Africa Analyst Rand Merchant Bank
Chief Executive Officer Imperial Logistics Africa
Build Business Contacts & Leads Targeted Audience Corporate Deal-Flow Connect with Key Players Expand Networks Build Africa Exposure Partnerships & New Opportunities
Publications and Online Media
Regional Director, Sub-Saharan Africa DuPont South Africa
Managing Director Imara Securities, Angola
Showcase your company to senior level executives at the 7th Africa Economic Forum 2013.
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Carlman Moyo
Annabel Bishop
7th Africa Economic Forum 2013
Participants benefit from unique knowledge and Delegates receive online access via www.petro21.com to all Presentations (with 600 Images).
Director, Real Estate Actis, Johannesburg
Anthony Lopes Pinto
sponsor opportunities
• • • • • • •
Dianna Games
Who Should Attend: • Banking/Financial Institutions • Corporate Investors • Legal/Accounting Firms • Investment & Security Firms • Service & Supply Companies • Telecommunications • Transport • Tourism Industries • Engineering & Contractors • Minerals & Mining • Energy & Power Companies • State Agencies & Parastatals • Regulatory Authorities
To find out about Sponsor Packages available: Email: amanda@glopac-partners.com
okable
tely Bo
AFRICAN ENERGY OIL • GAS • POWER • POLICY & FINANCE
“Duncan Clarke, one of the most astute analysts of Africa, writes from the inside about Africa’s long history. Enormously stimulating, Clarke boldly rethinks Africa’s economic future.” PROFESSOR FRANCI S W I LSON , author of Dinosaurs, Diamonds & Democracy: A Short, Short History of South Africa “This book exudes an intense love of subject, and regales the reader with exquisite nuances and fascinating insights.” ROBERT D. KAPL AN , author of Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power
53295
DUNCAN CLARKE
Africa/Economics
ISBN 978-1-84668-569-9
DA R K NES S TO DES T INY
With forty years’ background in the economics of Africa and the developing world, Duncan Clarke is a leading writer, thinker and speaker on economics and geopolitics in Africa. Founder and Chairman of Global Pacific & Partners, an advisory firm, his recent work includes Africa: Crude Continent – The Struggle for Africa’s Oil Prize (Profile Books, 2010; now a CNBC Africa TV/Film documentary).
A F R I C A’ S F U T U R E
“Duncan Clarke sets out to answer tough questions. Challenging theories and defying conventional wisdom, he knows Africa too well to come up with glib answers and provides a stimulating and thought-provoking journey.” MI CHAEL H OLMAN , former Africa editor of the Financial Times
9 781846 685699 Jacket design: B R I L L Jacket image: Tom Bonatti
US $32.95
www.profilebooks.com
A F R I C A’ S F UTURE Darkness to Destiny
How the past is shaping Africa’s economic evolution
Throughout the centuries, Africa has concealed multiple secrets, waylaying and confounding the unwary. Today, as economists, politicians, experts and the cognoscenti from within and outside the continent seek to “fix” Africa and its perceived problems, the need to understand its mysteries has never been greater.
Africa Economic Forum
Africa’s Future tells the tale of Africa’s economic evolution, providing unique prisms through which to view the continent’s panoramic story – ultimately one of triumph over the influences of nature and over multiple political tragedies. It explains how Africa in effect went backwards for one and a half thousand years, from the Roman Empire to 1500 CE. Only in more recent times has Africa gradually begun to evolve and grow, to the point at which its modern and archaic economies uneasily coexist today. Modern Africa has developed diverse economic pathways to betterment – yet survivalist economies still litter the landscape. The continent’s paradox of “subsistence with many faces” is manifested in its tiny middle class, its growing numbers of rich, and the ever-greater numbers of poor expected in the future.
“Richly detailed … indispensable for anyone interested in global trends in the 21st century.” Ian Morris, author of Why the West Rules – For Now
6 March 2013, Sandton Convention Centre Johannesburg, South Africa
Duncan Clarke, acclaimed author of Africa: Crude Continent and an acknowledged expert on the economics and geopolitics of Africa, provides fresh and challenging insights into our vision of Africa’s economies and future, offering seasoned views on a continent of enormous potential which has witnessed many false dawns. As his discerning analysis shows, Africa is coveted as much by the developing empires of today as it was by other empires in the past. And as he suggests, perhaps this rich continent’s destiny can indeed be discerned from its embedded history.
DUNCAN CLARKE
£20.00
Composite to show position of gold foil on front and spine. Gold foil is set to overprint.
Program: 7th Africa Economic Forum 2013 Wednesday: 6th March 2013 07:00 Registration & Light Breakfast with Coffee
08:00
UNEP: Eastern Africa’s Economic Growth Future
Chairman’s Opening Remarks
Mary Kimotho M’Mukindia, Division of Technology, Industry & Economics, United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi*
Session 1: Africa’s 21st Century Economic Future
• Trade, investment & logistics expansion is on the upside, but political and commercial risks remain
Dr Duncan Clarke, Chairman & CEO, Global Pacific & Partners
08:15
What will drive Africa’s economic future to 2050? Is the prognosis for high or modest GDP growth, and will Southern Africa perform better than in the past? Natural resources provide a key asset for the future, while corporate investment is critical to raising the investment rate needed to sustain economic growth.
• Companies have invested, and taken new interest in the economic hubs and regional economies
Western Africa: Dynamics & Corporate Drivers
Dianna Games,Director,Africa@Work,Hon.CEO, SouthAfrica- Nigeria Chamber of Commerce, author of Business in Africa: Corporate Insights (Penguin) 2012, Johannesburg
Africa: Unlocking Natural Capital For Growth
Dr Duncan Clarke, Chairman & CEO, Global Pacific & Partners, author of Africa’s Future: Darkness to Destiny (Profile Books) 2012, and Africa: Crude Continent: The Struggle for Africa’s Oil Prize (Profile Books) Johannesburg
• Nigeria and Gulf of Guinea offer a fast-moving complex market but multiple blockages impede potential • Local and foreign-African companies have targeted West Africa but face diverse risks
• The resource-rich Continent could do better, if natural capital was monetised for maximal gain • Will resource nationalism impede the optimal growth paths open to Africa’s 55 states?
Southern Africa’s Economic Performance
Moderator: Dr Duncan Clarke 09:30 Coffee Break & Networking 10:00
Session 2: Africa’s Investment Potential & Future
Investment in Africa has risen in volume and value with an uneven spread across economic landscapes and between industries, with resource-based capital investment and FDI inflows leading the charge. A wide range of investors is now active with more partnerships in-place although competitive threats and risks remain for the future and uncertainty has increased with softening and volatility now found in the commodity price cycle.
Professor Tony Hawkins, Graduate School of Business, Zimbabwe: Correspondent, Financial Times (London), and author of Dollars, Diamonds and Development: The Political Economy of Zimbabwe after Robert Mugabe (forthcoming 2013) • Not all Southern African economies have been good
performers: why? • Constraints in integration, trade, capital and
infrastructure need to be overcome
Investec: South Africa’s Performance & Future
IFC: Ventures & Investments: Sub-Saharan Africa
Ram Mahidhara, Portfolio Manager, Infrastructure, ICT & Natural Resources, Sub-Saharan Africa, International Finance Corporation, Johannesburg
Annabel Bishop, Group Economist, Investec Ltd, Johannesburg
• IFC-World Bank portfolio in Sub-Saharan Africa has grown across the investment spectrum
• Once the economic powerhouse, South Africa has lost
• What will the future economic landscape offer to multilaterals and DFIs in Africa?
some traction in the growth stakes • Plans, policies, investment issues and capital constraints will be crucial to better outcomes
Africa Economic Forum
Standard Bank: Africa’s “China Card”: Future Commercial, Trade and Investment Linkages
12:00
• With slower Chinese economic growth, what are the future implications for Africa?
Session 3: Resource Potential & Industry Growth
Africa’s resource base is undeveloped – in agrarian assets, land, agro-allied ventures, minerals, oil/gas and unconventional fuels, as well as in human capital. Private equity and foreign state capital has entered these diverse markets – now wider in scope and depth than before – and the emerging investment cycle is fundamental to long term economic growth trajectories over the coming decades.
Paul Eardley-Taylor, Director, Oil & Gas Southern Africa, Standard Bank, Johannesburg • China’s role has expanded fast, and risk profiles and opportunities suggest more is to come
6 March 2013, Sandton Convention Centre Johannesburg, South Africa
Agrifica: Building Agrarian Economies Across Africa’s Changing Landscapes
Accenture: Africa’s Dynamic Markets
Dr Lawrence McCrystal, Director, Afrifica, South Africa
Grant Hatch, Head of Africa Strategy, Accenture, South Africa
• Traditional land and agrarian assets are basic to social survival and economic growth in Africa
The Brenthurst Foundation: Africa’s Shifting Geo-Economic-Political Landscapes
• Modernisation in agrarian economies will be a key driver
Dr Terence McNamee, Deputy Director, The Brenthurst Foundation, Johannesburg, and co-author Fault Lines, Profile Books, 2011
to Africa’s future and economic security
Dr John Purchase, Chief Executive Officer, Agricultural Business Chamber, South Africa
• Political and economic schisms mark Africa’s past, and
some remain: will others emerge?
• More investment in agro-allied ventures could transform Africa: uneven markets shape outlook
• Will the economic growth paradigm change
fundamentally, or risk reversion to type?
• High potential exists but modernisation could pave the way to an agrarian revolution
Africa & “The West”: Riding The “Commodity Super-Cycle” Professor Tony Hawkins, Graduate School of Business, Zimbabwe: Correspondent, Financial Times (London), and author of Dollars, Diamonds and Development: The Political Economy of Zimbabwe after Robert Mugabe (forthcoming 2013)
Moderator: Dianna Games, Africa@Work South Africa 11:30 Coffee Break & Networking
Actis: Property Investing & Portfolio In Africa Louis Deppe, Director, Real Estate, Actis Johannesburg • New corporate players, investors, projects and urban developments have come to the fore
• Traditional trade and investment partners remain significant for Africa, and will for the future • How will future world economic cycles shift the relationship pattern, and will it be to Africa’s advantage ?
ABC: Agro-Allied Industries & Market Outlook:South/Southern/Central Africa
• Private equity and capital has found new ventures of interest across diverse African property markets
Ecobank: Corporate Banking In Sub-Saharan Africa
Albert Essien, Deputy Group Chief Executive Officer, Ecobank, South Africa • Ecobank’s portfolio has spread widely inside Middle Africa, and there is more to come • Competition is growing, more banks have entered Africa’s markets, and the unbanked offer new opportunities
Africa Economic Forum
6 March 2013, Sandton Convention Centre Johannesburg, South Africa
Program: 7th Africa Economic Forum 2013
DuPont: African Economies at Play
Carlman Moyo, Regional Director, Sub-Saharan Africa, DuPont South Africa
Carlman Moyo, Regional Director, Sub-Saharan Africa, DuPont South Africa
Dianna Games, Director, Africa@Work, Hon. CEO, South AfricaNigeria Chamber of Commerce
• Building Africa’s infrastructure across the spectrum is essential, but constraints are significant • No infrastructure or power means low or even “no-growth” –
a situation to be avoided
Angola: Economic Future, Growth Potential & Commercial Trajectories
Dr Terence McNamee, Deputy Director, The Brenthurst Foundation
Interactive “Hardball” Discourse: With Delegates
Referee: Dr Duncan Clarke 16:30 Coffee Break & Networking
Anthony Lopes Pinto, Managing Director, Imara Securities, Angola 17:00
• Oil and gas-LNG development holds out huge potential for
Angola, with allied energy investments • More diversification is en route, with potential for more
commercial ventures across the value chain
Imperial Logistics: Logistics & Infrastructure in Africa
Dougie Truter, Chief Executive Officer, Imperial Logistics Africa • Logistics will shape the economic patterns in Africa
How will South Africa fare in this Brave New Economic World? Will it be “business as usual” ? Or is there clear vision and strategy to drive the country from its “low growth” trajectory towards a more competitive future, and how will South Africa compete with rising economic states within Africa where another 54 countries seek their own national economic interests?
Guest Presentation: South Africa Trade & Investment In Emerging World/Africa Economic Paradigms
Dr Rob H Davies, Minister of Trade & Industry, Ministry of Trade & Industry, Pretoria, South Africa
• Ports, hubs, and economic corridors will retain significance Moderator: Professor Tony Hawkins
• The view from Government, strategies for growth and global competition
13:45 Buffet Luncheon & Networking 15:00
• What might be done to refocus and improve South Africa’s place in the world?
Session 4: “Africa: Political Economy Hardball”
Hardball Panel Discussion: With Leading Thinkers
RMB: Africa’s Macroeconomic Future
Forget the sound bites, corporate spin, clichés and political ideologues: Listen to Insider Insights on Africa
Celeste Fauconnier, Africa Analyst, Rand Merchant Bank • The Sub-Saharan economic outlook and context for South African corporates
Encounter he Critical Questions: Hear Seasoned Viewpoints With Robust Debate
Is Africa Entering Its “Golden Age”?
• The Next Decade and beyond
Interactive Session: With Delegates
18.15
Close of Conference
What Could Derail Economic Progress? What About Global Competition?
Moderator: Dianna Games, Africa@Work South Africa
What Are The Key Constraints/Opportunities? How Can South African Companies Secure Advantage? Ram Mahidhara, Portfolio Manager, Infrastructure, ICT & Natural Resources, Sub-Saharan Africa, International Finance Corporation
Session 5: SA-Emerging-Africa-World Economies
18.30
Cocktail & Networking Reception: On The Terrace With Book Launch: Dianna Games, Business In Africa: Corporate Insights (Penguin, 2012) - With Speakers, Participants, Media and Invited Corporate Guests
Mary Kimotho M’Mukindia, UNEP, Nairobi Programme & Brochure are Copyright © Global Pacific & Partners
Africa Economic Forum
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7th Africa Economic Forum 2013
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