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Sub-Saharan Africa

Business Briefing Tuesday 28th August 2012

Johannesburg Stock Exchange, Johannesburg, South Africa

“Africa as Never Seen Before”

6th SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: BUSINESS BRIEFING 2012

Corporate Strategies, Investments, Economics, Business, Governments Duncan Clarke “tackles Africa” - which “has baffled, frustrated and confused a galaxy of pop stars and super-models, academics and UN experts, aid workers and business leaders, and journalists. The journey with him around Africa is like being shown around the bush by a top safari guide, who offers an always brilliant and stimulating account of the natural world, forcing the listener to look afresh.” Michael Holman, former Africa editor, Financial Times, London

This is the only such in-depth Business Briefing of its kind found anywhere in the world


Sub-Saharan Africa

Business Briefing Strategies for business and investment across the Continent, with unique insights in Presentations by Dr Duncan Clarke (Chairman & CEO, Global Pacific & Partners), in 600-plus images, on the prospects, potential, future and economic outlook for Africa, from a leading authority on the Continent, building on over 40 years’ experience in economics, Africa-wide advisory practice, visits to 46 African countries (and 121 worldwide), as the leading economic strategist on its oil, gas and energy industries, plus geopolitics and commercial issues He is author of Africa’s Future: Darkness to Destiny (Profile Books, 2012) and Africa: Crude Continent (now a TV/ Film Documentary by CNBC-Africa), as well as numerous economics works over the decades on Africa (including foundation missions to establish the 19-country Preferential Trade Area of Eastern & Southern Africa, COMESA) and SADCC ( now SADC), as well as advisory engagements with Economic Commission for Africa, leading UN Agencies (ILO, ITU, UNCTAD, UNDP) and international entities (EEC, USAID, and Foundations) on Africa’s economic issues, plus many private and international companies worldwide (on economics, trade, agro-industry, resources, oil/gas, energy, telecommunications, banking, investment, logistics, infrastructure). President, African Institute of Petroleum, and Advisor to corporate players, Governments and National Oil Companies in Africa, Asia, Russia, China, Europe, United States, and Latin America, Duncan Clarke received the South African National Energy Association Energy Award 2011.

Tuesday: 28th August 2012, Johannesburg Stock Exchange, Johannesburg, South Africa 08:00 Registration & Coffee

13:15 Luncheon

09:00 Africa’s Economies & Emerging

14:30 Companies, Growth, investment, governments: state-Owned firms, great powers, State Players

Market Outlook »» »» »» »» »» »» »» »» »» »» »» »» »»

Business Historiography Economic Transitions Macroeconomics “Big Five” African Economies Fast-Emerging Players Growth Performance Fundamentals Middle Classes Poverty Trends Investments Country and Regional Business Constraints Indicative Economic Outlook Future Directions

10:45 Coffee 11:15 Africa’s Resources, Industries

Economic Growth Drivers

»» »» »» »» »» »» »» »» »» »» »»

Critical Insights on: Agro-Allied Mining & Metals Energy & Power, Oil & Gas Infrastructure (Road, Rail, Ports, Shipping, Airlines) Banking Telecoms ICT Tourism Services Consumer Markets Industry and Market Trends

»» Corporate Presence & Growth »» »» »» »»

Top Companies Investments and Strategies In Western, Eastern, Maghreb-North Africa, Southern Africa South Africa: Strategy Focus, Key Issues Synergies & Growth

»» »» »» »» »» »»

Commercial Geopolitics and State Companies Investment Policies and Strategies State Investors from China, India, Russia, Brazil, Middle Eastern Worldwide Competitive Interests Inter-State Economic Strategies Africa’s Emerging 21st Century Future

16:30 Close

Cocktail Reception For Delegates & Guests From 16:45

The Africa Advisors

Duncan Clarke is a leading authority on the Continent, with 40 years’ experience in economics, the firm’s Africa, Advisory Practice, business visits to 46 African countries (120 worldwide), and the leading strategist on Africa’s oil-gas and energy industries, plus geopolitics, economics and commercial issues. He is author of Africa’s Future: Darkness to Destiny (Profile Books, London, 2012), Africa: Crude Continent (the TV/Film Documentary by CNBC-Africa, based on this book), as well as numerous economics works published over the decades on African economies. Other published works include Empires of Oil (Profile Books, London, 2007), and The Battle For Barrels (Profile Books, London, 2007). He was Economist for foundation missions to establish the Preferential Trade Area of Eastern & Southern Africa (now COMESA), provided basic research to establish SADCC (now SADC), and is an Advisor to African Development Bank, previously so to Economic Commission for Africa, leading multilateral Agencies (ILO, ITU, UNCTAD, UNDP) and international entities (EEC, USAID, and Foundations) on African economic issues, plus many private companies worldwide including Sifi da, Swiss Bank Corporation, Siemens, Detecon, and many others (on Africa’s economics, business, trade, agro-industry, resources, oil and gas, telecommunications, banking, investment, logistics, infrastructure). Currently President of the African Institute of Petroleum, he has been Advisor to numerous corporate oil/gas players, Governments and National Oil Companies in Africa, Asia, Russia, China, Europe, United States, and Latin America. Born in Zimbabwe, based in Johannesburg, he holds the B.Comm (Hons) in Economics, from Rhodes University (South Africa, 1969), and Ph.D (Economics), University of St. Andrews (Scotland, 1975).


Africa’s Economic Giants

South Africa

Botswana

Nigeria

Mauritius

Egypt

Rwanda

Algeria

Ethiopia

Libya

Mocambique

Angola

Seychelles

Tunisia

Africa’s Economic Giants

DARK N ES S TO DES T IN Y

A F R I C A’ S F U T U R E

A F R I C A’ S F UTURE Darkness to Destiny

How the past is shaping Africa’s economic evolution

Africa’s Emerging Economies

Eq Guinea Gabon Sudan Uganda Ghana Congo Chad

Africa’s

Kenya Cape Verde

Resource Rich

Mali Zambia Liberia Djibouti Senegal Namibia

Growth Hubs

Africa’s Emerging Economies

Tanzania Cameroon Madagascar Malawi Mauritania Guinea Niger Sierra Leone Burkina Faso

Africa’s Weak States

Burundi Sao Tome Benin The Gambia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Business Briefing 28 August 2012, Johannesburg Stock Exchange, Johannesburg, South Africa

Minnows

Africa’s Resource Rich: Growth Hubs

Africa’s Weak States: Minnows

Throughout the centuries, Africa has concealed multiple secrets, waylaying and confounding the unwary. Today, as economists, politicians, experts and the cognoscenti from within and outside the continent seek to “fix” Africa and its perceived problems, the need to understand its mysteries has never been greater. Africa’s Future tells the tale of Africa’s economic evolution, providing unique prisms through which to view the continent’s panoramic story – ultimately one of triumph over the influences of nature and over multiple political tragedies. It explains how Africa in effect went backwards for one and a half thousand years, from the Roman Empire to 1500 CE. Only in more recent times has Africa gradually begun to evolve and grow, to the point at which its modern and archaic economies uneasily coexist today. Modern Africa has developed diverse economic pathways to betterment – yet survivalist economies still litter the landscape. The continent’s paradox of “subsistence with many faces” is manifested in its tiny middle class, its growing numbers of rich, and the ever-greater numbers of poor expected in the future.

DUNCAN CLARKE

“Richly detailed … indispensable for anyone interested in global trends in the 21st century.” Ian Morris, author of Why the West Rules – For Now

DUNCAN CLARKE

Duncan Clarke, acclaimed author of Africa: Crude Continent and an acknowledged expert on the economics and geopolitics of Africa, provides fresh and challenging insights into our vision of Africa’s economies and future, offering seasoned views on a continent of enormous potential which has witnessed many false dawns. As his discerning analysis shows, Africa is coveted as much by the developing empires of today as it was by other empires in the past. And as he suggests, perhaps this rich continent’s destiny can indeed be discerned from its embedded history.

Praise for Africa’s Future: Darkness to Destiny (Profile, 2012) £20.00

Composite to show position of gold foil on front and spine. Gold foil is set to overprint.

“A richly detailed review of Africa’s past and what it tells us about the future, providing a sobering view of the realities on the ground. Indispensable for anyone interested in global trends in the 21st century.” Ian Morris, author of Why The West Rules - For Now, and Willard Professor of Classics and Professor of History at Stanford University “This is a book that exudes an intense love of subject, and regales the reader with exquisite nuances and fascinating insights.” Robert D. Kaplan, author of Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, and Senior Fellow, Center for New American Security in Washington, and foreign correspondent for The Atlantic for over a quarter-century “Duncan Clarke’s latest book on Africa sets out to answer tough questions about the continent, often asked but seldom satisfactorily answered: What shaped Africa’s economies? What went wrong? And can its recent growth be sustained? The result is rather like travelling around Africa in the company of a knowledgeable and entertaining guide who draws lessons from the past while mapping out the future. Challenging theories and defying conventional wisdom throughout, he knows Africa too well to come up with easy or glib answers and provides a stimulating and thought-provoking journey.” Michael Holman, former Africa editor of Financial Times, London, was raised in central Africa and is author of three novels set in east Africa “Duncan Clarke, one of the most astute analysts of Africa - widely read and travelled - writes from the inside about Africa’s long history: from the origins of humankind, through slavery, colonialism to the economic dilemmas and difficulties faced today. Enormously stimulating, Clarke boldly rethinks Africa’s economic future.” Professor Francis Wilson, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, author of Dinosaurs, Diamonds & Democracy: A Short, Short History of South Africa.

Praise for Crude Continent: The Struggle for Africa’s Oil Prize (Profile, 2010) “A highly accomplished work and must-read on Africa and its political economy of oil ,,, in an epic which illuminates Africa’s ‘inner worlds and deftly weaves together the continent’s ancient, post-colonial and modern histories ... an outstanding work ... to delight even old Africa hands in this time, well-informed and masterful treatise.” Barry Morgan Africa correspondent, Upstream International, the international oil and gas newspaper “No other writer matches his unique knowledge of the global energy industry and Africa’s historical, political and economic oil context. Clarke’s insights into contemporary policy, poverty, corporate strategies and African geopolitics make his book required reading for energy industry executives, investment analysts and African policy-makers, diplomats, donor agencies, banks and international lenders. Very good stuff.” Professor Tony Hawkins, Financial Times correspondent “If I need to know anything about oil in Africa, I go straight to this book.” Richard Dowden, Director, the Royal African Society “Clarke’s tour de force is ... brave and bold. Brave in its scope and bold in style, and the odyssey is compelling reading.” Tim Hughes, Programme Head, Governance of Africa’s Resources Programme, South African Institute of International Affairs “Duncan Clarke’s Crude Continent matches its ambition, tackling a subject that has baffled, frustrated and confused a galaxy of pop stars and supermodels, academics and UN expert, aid workers and business leaders, and journalists ... informed by an unrivalled knowledge of Africa’s oil industry.” Michael Holman, former Africa editor of the Financial Times “La bible du pétrole African ... qui détaille près de quarante ans de bataille pour le pétrole africain, du Cap au Caire. Tel un safari à travers le continent, le réciet de Duncan Clarke guide le lecteur dans les coulisses de la conquête du brut africain, avec force détails et ancedotes, tantôt humoristiques.” Jeune Afrique

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Sub-Saharan Africa

Business Briefing

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Sub-Saharan Africa: Business Briefing