12 AVIATION
Predicting the future of the Thai aviation industry Jürgen Supik
The current situation of the aviation business in Thailand is probably not much different to that in most other countries – devasted. It is difficult to imagine the time frame for when it will end and even more difficult to predict when exactly flying/travelling restrictions will be lifted. In the past, the most lethal viruses disappeared faster than the less lethal viruses, which had more opportunities to infect and adapt to different hosts. After all, a parasite’s goal is not to kill its host, just to profit from it. As in evolution, where there is a loser, there is also a winner ; therefore the aviation industry will not be eradicated. However, the damage is done already and, depending on the length of the worldwide restrictions, more or less bankruptcies, mergers and takeovers are likely to occur. Financially stricken weak companies will not survive in the short term, but the financially stronger companies will profit from the crisis and become even stronger.
“ It is now important for the Government to apply changes to the current PPP projects … to reflect reality and provide conditions that allow the most competitive aviation sector companies to survive at least through the year to come.” China and India have added 320 million children to the world population in the last 20 years, who will mature to reach their travelling age in the next few years. Adding South Asia to the equation, means there will be an additional 500 million “travel-keen youngsters” in the foreseeable future who can book their travel through their smar t phones (source: United Nations World Population Prospects, 2019). At the same time, the mor tality rate is going down, older people are retiring earlier and travelling more, and people in Asia-Pacific region are living longer. This scenario compares to developing and procuring aviation infrastructure and equipment for 10 countries the size of Spain. However, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has predicted that global passenger traffic will not return to pre-Covid-19 levels until 2024. If there is not a major second wave in countries like China, Thailand and Vietnam, those countries with less Covid-19 cases will bounce back quicker, depending on the opening of international transport bubbles.
In the medium term, Thailand does not have to worry too much. It is in midst of the most densely populated region that has the world’s highest population growth rates. Even if growth rates are halved in the next decade, India and China combined will add another 80 million people to the population of Asia, the equivalent of the total German population.
In the near-future, infections in Thailand will be easier to control due to a much lower infection rate, more disciplined counter measures and the availability of testing kits, and ultimately the Covid-19 vaccine. As more people (compared to Europe) restrict their travelling needs, they will be keen to travel again once it becomes possible.
More important, however, is the fact that just
An additional two runways, a second Midfield Satellite – SAT2 – as well as another mirrored
UPDATE 4/2020
Thailand is prepared for the aviation travel resurgence. The new Midfield Satellite, SAT1, at Suvarnabhumi Airport, which was approximately 90 per cent complete at the end of July 2020, will add another 15 million annual passengers (MAP) to the existing capacity of 45 MAP.
