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POLITICS
GEORGIA TODAY
JUNE 9 - 12, 2017
The Enduring Trilateral Format: Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan BY EMIL AVDALIANI
T
he former Soviet space has seen a number of political andeconomicalliances.Some of them, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), work only nominally; GUAM, another regional cooperation endeavor, resurfaced only recently. In Central Asia, any deep cooperation agreements between the countries largely failed in the 1990s and early 2000s. However, it is in the South Caucasus- where we have a perennial
Despite the three countries’ evidently divergent strategic paths, the basis for trilateral cooperation has only increased
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, multiple breakaway territories and varied religious settings- that the cooperation between Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia, or so-called trilateral cooperation, continues to be a strong one. Moreover, over the past several years, since the trilateral cooperation was first introduced in May 2012 in Batumi, engagement between the three countries even increased. The countries initially pledged to deepen defense ties. And indeed, the defense cooperation between the countries increased and we witnessed numerous joint military exercises and sharing of intelligence between the three militaries. Moreover, the countries also cooperate on exchange of military staff and military expertise. The last meeting between the three defense ministers took place on May 25 in Batumi. The enduring cooperation was tested by overshadowing developments around Georgia. The government of the country has been criticized both internally and internationally for shutting doors to Azerbaijani dissidents and arrests of those wanted by Turkey. But the durability of strategic partnership takes precedence as the three countries need each other. Military cooperation, although not ambitious enough to cause fears in Moscow, along with railways and pipelines, represents a far greater sticking point for the countries than arrests of dissidents or other figures. Thus, for instance, the Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Isık noted that the three
countries have “exemplary relations.” He also added that “new projects will be developed within the framework of the Tripartite Ministerial format.” From his side the Georgian Defense Minister Levan Izoria mentioned said the sides discussed the future of the tripartite format and exchanged views on how to increase the cooperation to a higher level. Similar statements were made by the Azerbaijani Defense Minister Colonel Zakir Hasanov. Considering how shaky and fast-moving is the regional political and security landscape in the South Caucasus and the Black Sea, the cooperation between the three countries is certainly important. The trilateral alliance is altogether noteworthy as is consists of NATO member and EU-hopeful Turkey, EU/NATOoriented Georgia, and Azerbaijan which up until now has avoided joining any
large economic or military alliances. The format, as said first inaugurated in 2012, has even seen the change of governments. For instance, in Georgia, the United National Movement was replaced by the Georgian Dream. While Turkey moved from close cooperation with Moscow to adversary and back again. However, despite the three countries’ evidently divergent strategic paths, the basis for trilateral cooperation has only increased. Every country of the three needs the others. Turkey wants a more stable Georgia with deeper economic and energy relations, while Azerbaijan, in the light of uncertainties regarding Nagorno Karabakh, needs Turkey’s backing. Georgia, in between, under pressure from Russia and being dependent on transit, in turn needs both Turkey and Azerbaijan. Moreover, the two countries are Tbilisi’s biggest trade partners and investment sources.
The three countries do not align because of a common threat. Nevertheless, they all feel Russian pressure on various fronts from Syria to Abkhazia and S. Ossetia/ Samachablo to Nagorno Karabakh. Even in Baku, the skepticism around Russia grows as recently Moscow abolished the All-Russian Azerbaijan Congress. The trilateral cooperation between Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan seems to be based on mutual interests and geopolitical challenges. The countries are less concerned with different religions, foreign policy vectors, etc. All three see how interdependent they are and there are clear imperatives (internal problems, foreign pressure) to increase the cooperation within the format. In other words, energy and transport infrastructure tying the three states, such as the Baku-TbilisiKars pipeline, take precedence. And this geopolitical thinking, in fact, has been the key to the trilateralism’s continued relevance. True, the countries still lack a common agenda on how to further develop the military cooperation, and there are not yet any concrete mechanisms on how to deal commonly with foreign challenges, but the format nevertheless has proved to be a long-lasting one. The countries are clever to not posture themselves as creating a definite military alliance in order not to provoke Russia, rather using the trilateral format to stress the importance of economic and energy cooperation, potentially backed if/when necessary by deeper military cooperation.
Montenegro In, and Georgia? HOW ARE THE RUSSIANS GOING TO REACT? THEY SEEM RATHER UNHAPPY WITH THE TURN OF THE EVENTS
INTERVIEW BY VAZHA TAVBERIDZE
T
he 5th of June proved to be a historic day for the small Balkan nation as the country became the 29th member of NATO. Georgia watched with great interest, what with our country’s undisclosed desire to join the ranks of the North Atlantic alliance. How did it come that they were first? What did they do to deserve a MAP ahead of us? These were some of the questions entertained by the more Euroskeptically inclined members of our society. We tried to look for a middle ground and asked these very questions to… A Croatian. Bernard Karakas is the editor-in-chief of the Vecernij List, Croatia’s biggest daily newspaper and he was only too keen to discuss Montenegro’s ongoing NATO adventure with GEORGIA TODAY and Panorama TV Talk Show. “First and foremost, it’s a preventive measure on behalf of Europe and the West in general,” he tells us. “Its goal is to weaken Russia’s presence in the region and most importantly, to deny Russia access to the Adriatic Sea. This, in the long run, would prevent scenarios such as the one that is unfolding in Ukraine right now happening in the Balkans. Keep in mind that not so long ago, about 10 years or so, Montenegro was quite close to Russia, right before the ex-PM Milo Djukanovic, who is still a de-facto ruler of the country, did a U-turn on the Kremlin to prolong his political lifespan. We shouldn’t forget Serbia, either – the main leverage of the Kremlin in the Balkans.
Of course they’re unhappy- it’s a major blow to Russian interests in the region. It’s, as they like to call it, “A NATO Expansion”. But then what can they really do to stop it from happening? Unlike Georgia and Ukraine, Montenegro was never considered as “Russia’s backyard”. So, we don’t expect major changes. Sure, there might be some uproar, some clashes and so on, but generally we in the Balkans pull these things off just perfectly without Russian intervention. Sad to admit it, but it has become a know-how of sorts for us.
HOW CAN MONTENEGRO CONTRIBUTE TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY (SINCE IT'S A SMALL COUNTRY WITH ONLY 600,000 INHABITANTS) Funny question, that. Nobody asks Montenegro to contribute anything, really – their prime contribution will be the fact that Russia won’t have a potential access route into the Adriatic Sea, which will save NATO and the West a lot of headache for years to come. So, Montenegro is in there mainly thanks to its geographical proximity.
Bernard Karakas, the editor-in-chief of the Vecernij List, Croatia’s biggest daily newspaper
AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING NAÏVE, HOW FAIR IS THAT? WHAT IS MONTENEGRO DOING IN THE FIGHT AGAINST ORGANIZED CRIME AND CORRUPTION? WHEN YOU LOOK AT CORRUPTION STATISTICS, REFORMS, FREEDOM OF PRESS, TRANSPARENCY, GEORGIA WILL DEFINITELY COME IF NOT AHEAD, THEN
AT LEAST NOT BEHIND MONTENEGRO OR SERBIA It’s more sad than naïve, really. If you compare democratic standards between Georgia and Montenegro, then the later doesn’t even come close, but Montenegro is, figuratively speaking, a brick in the wall that NATO is building in front of Russia. It’s one small, yet crucial part of the puzzle that NATO has been assembling for quite a while now. Slovenia, Croatia, now Montenegro – this means ensuring the security of the Adriatic, and to a larger extent, the Mediterranean Sea… And mind you, the Adriatic is a lot closer to Western Europe than the Black Sea is. To wrap it up, Montenegro has the luxury to trade over things with NATO, while Georgia is not so lucky. It has nothing to do with Montenegro being democratic or not. Take Albania – this country has nothing to do with democracy whatsoever, yet is a NATO member already, for geopolitical reasons.
SO, IT’S ALL DOUBLE STANDARDS AND NOTHING TO DO WITH REFORMS AND DEMOCRACY? Not exactly. Both are very much needed and welcomed, but at the end of the day, it’s still a political question. Georgia being a post-soviet republic is yet another stumbling block. With Putin being firmly at the helm of Russia and more often than not dictating the foreign policy trends to the whole world, the European leaders are afraid to provoke him. That’s the main reason Georgia isn’t already a NATO member. So, it doesn’t need to compare itself with Montenegro or Albania – that’s a futile endeavor… It’s the geopolitical situation that has the Alliance’s collective hands tied, not a lack of effort on Georgia’s part.