A Changed World: Countries and Markets Continue to Struggle to Comprehend the New Long-Term Global Fundamentals

• COVID has changed everything: We no longer live or work like we did pre-COVID. Most businesses are struggling to figure out how to manage a changed workforce. A recent Gallup global survey found significant stress is felt by 52 percent of employees. And 59 percent of employees globally are “quiet quitting” – in the US, 50 percent of workers identify as “quiet quitters,” and 18 percent identify as being “actively disengaged.”

• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed everything: Geopolitical relations are in a state of flux in ways we have not seen since World War II. Moreover, global markets and businesses are scrambling more than ever to adjust their strategies due to the impact on key sectors – especially in the commodities sector with the impact of sanctions and Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Ø Key Theme: We are in a new age where the global and regional battle for access to commodities –Agricultural, critical minerals, water, etc. – are driving new Cold Wars as well as Hot Wars.

• Globalization is either over or being brutally restructured: Trade tensions between China vs. US/EU/IndoPacific have triggered strong embrace by major free market economies of Industrial Policy for “national economic security” (e.g., CHIPS Act in the US and EU, race for critical mineral deals, etc.).

• Demographics are changing everything: India is now the largest population in the world as China begins to rapidly shrink. Africa is the fastest growing region of the world. Japan and many EU nations are seeing significant long-term shrinkage of their populations but are seeking to make up for it with immigration – as is the US. As for Russia: It is in catastrophic free-fall with seemingly no way back.