The Farm Bill: No Way Congress Hits the September 30th deadline

• An authorized program set to expire September 30th. We see little chance of them completing it by then – neither the House or Senate have introduced a bill yet. So, they will do some sort of stop-gap to keep funding going until a deal is made. Estimated cost by the Congressional Budget Office: $1.5 trillion at the very least.

• But there are knots to be untied – House Republicans will want to defund the $20 billion appropriated in the Inflation Reduction Act for carbon sequestration in agriculture and reallocate it for farm safety net programs. The White House will likely resist.

• It is going to be hard to increase funding for any programs because of the debt ceiling agreement. To get more money, they have to take more money from other programs.

• Also, how to deal with the Price Loss Coverage program?

• And going back to the break-up of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, drought problems globally (Argentina is importing soybeans?), will additional programs be added to boost growth output?

Source: Congressional Budget Office